By Dr. Bravious Kahyoza, PhD, Senior Economist at TICGL

Tanzania’s Vision 2050 marks a crucial transition from Vision 2025, positioning the country at a crossroads of opportunity and challenge. Vision 2025 set Tanzania on a path toward becoming a middle-income nation with a competitive economy, improved infrastructure, and enhanced governance.

However, despite significant government efaforts, many goals remained unfulfilled, particularly in poverty reduction and equitable development. When Vision 2025 was formulated twenty-five years ago, GDP per capita stood at $360. Today, it has risen to at least $1,500, reflecting a fourfold increase.

To sustain this momentum and quadruple per capita income over the next 25 years, Tanzania must achieve a per capita income of at least $8,600 by 2050. With an expected population of 116 million, this translates to a GDP of around $1 trillion, requiring economic growth from the current $85 billion.

A critical factor in reaching these goals is infrastructure development. Vision 2050 introduces broader goals, including industrialization, infrastructure development, and social inclusion. Achieving these targets necessitates addressing the shortcomings of Vision 2025, particularly in leveraging PPPs more effectively.

One major shortcoming of Vision 2025 was the limited impact on poverty reduction despite steady economic growth. Tanzania’s annual GDP growth rate averaged 6 percent, yet by the end of Vision 2025, 26.4 percent of the population still lived below the poverty line. This highlights the critical issue that economic growth alone does not guarantee improved living standards. The private sector’s potential, especially in rural areas, remained underutilized.

PPPs, identified as a development avenue under Vision 2025, often failed to deliver the intended impact. Large-scale PPP projects, such as the expansion of Dar es Salaam’s port and the Julius Nyerere Hydropower Project, contributed to national development but primarily benefited urban areas without adequately addressing poverty alleviation.

Critics argue that while these initiatives were significant, they failed to tackle systemic challenges in rural regions, where agriculture remains the backbone of the economy.Tanzania’s agriculture sector, employing more than 70 percent of the population, remained underfunded and technologically stagnant during Vision 2025.

Although PPPs could have facilitated modern technologies, improved irrigation systems, and better farming techniques, these initiatives were slow to materialize or failed to reach smallholder farmers.

Professor Damian Gabagambi, an expert in agricultural economics, asserts that Tanzania cannot become a global food production leader without transforming its agricultural practices. Achieving this demands investment in new technologies and political commitment to restructuring the sector for sustainability and resilience. Vision 2050 sets even more ambitious plans, aiming for upper-middle-income status with a GDP exceeding USD 1 Trillion and a per capita income of USD 7,000.

Minister of State for Planning and Investment, Prof. Kitila Mkumbo, has emphasized that Tanzania’s future depends on its ability to industrialize and create an inclusive, equitable society. For this to materialize, a thriving private sector is crucial, requiring improved infrastructure, predictable regulatory frameworks, and enhanced access to finance. Prof. Kitila Mkumbos stresses that Tanzania cannot attain upper-middle-income status without a robust private sector, which serves as the foundation for industrialization.

However, the Tanzanian private sector faces challenges such as inconsistent policy enforcement, limited capital access, and insufficient technical expertise. Addressing these barriers is essential for realizing Vision 2050’s objectives.

PPPs in Vision 2050 must extend beyond financial investments to an integrated approach where the private sector plays a role in education, healthcare, and agriculture.

Vision 2050 aims for universal healthcare access, requiring significant investment in infrastructure and human capital. To meet these goals, PPPs should engage the private sector in developing affordable healthcare solutions, including rural health centers.

Similarly, Tanzania’s education system, particularly in rural areas, demands PPPs to expand access to quality education and vocational training. A well-educated and healthy population is crucial for Tanzania’s transition into an industrialized economy.

Despite these ambitions, Vision 2050 faces significant challenges. The energy sector remains a major bottleneck, with per capita energy consumption at approximately 100 kWh, far below the target of 600 kWh by 2050.

South Africa, with an economy under $400 billion and a population similar to Tanzania’s, generates over 50,000 megawatts of electricity. In contrast, Tanzania currently produces less than 5,000 megawatts, meaning power generation must increase twelvefold in the next 25 years.

Meeting this goal requires substantial investment in renewable energy, infrastructure, and technology. While projects like the Julius Nyerere Hydropower Plant are promising, they are still in early stages. The private sector must play a central role in scaling up energy generation, distribution, and efficiency.

The success of Vision 2050 depends on Tanzania’s ability to maximize its private sector potential through strategic public-private partnerships.

While Vision 2025 laid the groundwork, it underscored the need for more inclusive and targeted economic growth. Addressing persistent challenges, from poverty to inadequate infrastructure, requires active private-sector engagement.

Vision 2050 provides a roadmap for a prosperous, industrialized, and equitable Tanzania, but achieving this vision necessitates fostering a conducive investment environment, adopting advanced technologies, and making bold, transformative investments in key sectors.

The future is promising if the right reforms are enacted and the country’s abundant resources are harnessed effectively.