A statistical breakdown of the 2025 International Visitors' Exit Survey — arrivals, spending, source markets, and what a record tourism season means for Tanzania's foreign exchange earnings, growth trajectory, and the outlook to 2030/2031.
Tanzania's tourism sector closed 2025 with its strongest performance since the 2001 inception of the International Visitors' Exit Survey. According to the 25th edition of the survey — jointly produced by the Ministry of Natural Resources and Tourism (MNRT), the Bank of Tanzania (BOT), the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), the Immigration Services Department (ISD) and the Zanzibar Commission for Tourism (ZCT) — the country welcomed 2,294,495 international visitors in 2025, a 7.1% increase over 2024, and earned USD 4,410.6 million in tourism receipts, up 13% year-on-year. Zanzibar, tracked separately, recorded 654,880 arrivals and USD 1,190.8 million in earnings — a 19.3% jump.
The headline number that matters most for macroeconomic planners is not arrivals but value per visitor: overall average expenditure per person per night rose 19% in mainland Tanzania (to USD 289) and 9% in Zanzibar (to USD 274), meaning earnings grew almost twice as fast as arrivals. This report unpacks that gap statistically, traces the tourism–growth relationship, and projects the sector's trajectory to 2030/2031 — a horizon directly relevant to Tanzania's Dira 2050 ambition of a US$1 trillion economy.
This tourism analysis feeds directly into TICGL's broader macroeconomic investigation of the policy gaps standing between Tanzania and its Dira 2050 target of a US$1 trillion economy. If tourism is one of the country's clearest growth engines, understanding where policy is — and isn't — keeping pace is essential context.
Read: The Policy Gaps Keeping $1 Trillion Out of Reach by 2050 →Global tourism fully recovered its pre-pandemic trajectory in 2025. International arrivals worldwide reached 1.52 billion, roughly 60 million more than 2024 (a 4% annual increase), while international tourism receipts rose 5% to approximately USD 1.9 trillion. Total tourism export revenues — receipts plus passenger transport — hit a record USD 2.2 trillion. Africa was among the fastest-growing regions, attracting over 80 million visitors and posting a 117% recovery rate relative to 2019, ahead of the global average of 104%.
Source: UNWTO World Tourism Barometer, January 2026.
Source: UNWTO World Tourism Barometer, January 2026. p = provisional.
Tanzania's tourist arrivals have followed a clear V-shaped recovery since the 2020 pandemic collapse (621,000 arrivals, a 59% drop from 2019). By 2025, arrivals reached 2,294,495 — more than 1.5 times the pre-pandemic 2019 level of 1,527,000, and over 3.6 times the 2020 trough.
Source: Immigration Services Department (ISD), reproduced in the 2025 International Visitors' Exit Survey Report.
| Indicator | 2024 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| International arrivals (URT) | 2,141,895 | 2,294,495 | +7.1% |
| Tourism earnings, URT (USD million) | 3,903.1 | 4,410.6 | +13.0% |
| Zanzibar arrivals | 601,006 | 654,880 | +9.0% |
| Zanzibar tourism earnings (USD million) | 997.8 | 1,190.8 | +19.3% |
| Avg. expenditure per person/night, URT (USD) | 243 | 289 | +19.1% |
| Avg. expenditure per person/night, Zanzibar (USD) | 251 | 274 | +9.0% |
| Average length of stay, URT (nights) | 10 | 9 | −1 night |
| Average length of stay, Zanzibar (nights) | 7 | 6 | −1 night |
| Package tour share, URT | 56.3% | 58.8% | +2.5 pts |
| Package tour share, Zanzibar | 61.8% | 67.2% | +5.4 pts |
TICGL uses the term "Safari Dividend" to describe the gap between arrivals growth and earnings growth in Tanzania's tourism data — the extra value captured per visitor beyond simple volume growth. In 2025, arrivals grew 7.1% but earnings grew 13.0%, meaning roughly 5.5 percentage points of earnings growth came purely from visitors spending more, not from more visitors arriving. This is the statistical signature of a maturing, higher-value tourism economy rather than a purely volume-driven one.
TICGL calculation from NBS/BOT/MNRT 2025 Exit Survey data.
Source: 2025 International Visitors' Exit Survey Report, Chart 2.30.
Tourism functions as one of Tanzania's principal sources of foreign exchange, alongside agricultural exports and mining. Every dollar of tourism earnings that enters the economy strengthens the current account, supports the shilling, and — through the hospitality, transport, and retail value chains — cascades into employment and small business income far beyond the parks and beaches where the spending physically occurs. The sector's 2025 performance, following an official government assessment of the sector as having "fully recovered and surpassed the COVID-19 pandemic era," reflects arrivals more than 1.5 times above 2019 pre-pandemic levels.
The top 15 source markets accounted for over 75% of total visitors to mainland Tanzania and about 77% of visitors to Zanzibar in 2025. The United States and Italy continue to anchor mainland demand, while Italy dominates Zanzibar. Notably, the Netherlands and India entered the mainland top-15 list in 2025, displacing Australia and Burundi — a sign of market diversification driven by promotional efforts.
Source: 2025 International Visitors' Exit Survey, Chart 2.1.
Source: 2025 International Visitors' Exit Survey, Chart 2.3.
| Country | 2024 (%) | 2025 (%) |
|---|---|---|
| United States | 15.1 | 12.4 |
| Italy | 11.6 | 11.8 |
| France | 7.2 | 7.0 |
| Kenya | 8.8 | 6.4 |
| United Kingdom | 6.3 | 6.0 |
| Germany | 4.8 | 4.8 |
| Zambia | 3.2 | 4.7 |
| Netherlands | — | 3.8 |
| Spain | 5.3 | 3.6 |
| DR Congo | 3.0 | 3.2 |
| China | 3.0 | 3.1 |
| South Africa | 3.1 | 2.4 |
| India | — | 2.2 |
| Canada | 2.1 | 2.0 |
| Zimbabwe | 2.3 | 2.0 |
| Country | 2024 (%) | 2025 (%) |
|---|---|---|
| Italy | 19.9 | 18.8 |
| France | 12.3 | 10.6 |
| United Kingdom | 9.0 | 7.7 |
| United States | 7.2 | 6.6 |
| Germany | 7.0 | 6.4 |
| Netherlands | 2.3 | 5.6 |
| Spain | 7.5 | 5.1 |
| South Africa | 5.9 | 3.3 |
| Poland | — | 2.3 |
| Australia | 2.3 | 2.3 |
| Kenya | 3.6 | 2.0 |
| Belgium | 1.2 | 1.8 |
| Greece | — | 1.7 |
| Canada | 1.4 | 1.7 |
| Austria | 1.5 | 1.7 |
Leisure and holidays dominate: 64.6% of mainland visitors and 92.9% of Zanzibar visitors travel for this purpose. Business travel remains economically significant on the mainland (12.5%) — reflecting Tanzania's role as a logistics hub for landlocked neighbours such as Zambia and the DRC — but is negligible in Zanzibar (0.4%).
Source: 2025 Exit Survey, Chart 2.9.
Source: 2025 Exit Survey, Charts 2.10 & 2.13.
The rising share of package tours (58.8% mainland, 67.2% Zanzibar) is economically important: package tourists spend far more per night than independent travellers. In 2025, mainland package travellers spent USD 479 per person per night versus USD 203 for independent travellers — a 2.4x premium.
| Year | URT | Zanzibar |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 10 | 7 |
| 2021 | 10 | 8 |
| 2022 | 9 | 7 |
| 2023 | 10 | 6 |
| 2024 | 10 | 7 |
| 2025 | 9 | 6 |
Chinese visitors recorded the highest average expenditure per person per night in the mainland top-15 markets at USD 551 (up from USD 491 in 2024), followed by long-haul European and North American travellers. Visitors from neighbouring landlocked countries (DR Congo, Kenya, Zambia, Zimbabwe) spent considerably less per night, consistent with shorter, business-oriented, cross-border trips rather than long-haul leisure travel.
Source: 2025 Exit Survey, Chart 2.30.
| Purpose of visit | Package | Non-package | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leisure and holidays | 3,023.3 | 899.1 | 3,922.4 |
| Visiting friends & relatives | 4.0 | 91.4 | 95.4 |
| Other | 26.0 | 48.0 | 74.1 |
| Business | 3.1 | 45.9 | 49.0 |
| Total tourism earnings | 3,056.5 | 1,084.4 | 4,140.9 |
Note: This breakdown table (Table 2.16 of the source survey) totals USD 4,140.9 million; the headline national figure cited in the survey's Executive Summary is USD 4,410.6 million. TICGL reproduces both as published by NBS/BOT/MNRT without adjustment.
Zanzibar's tourism economy is structurally different from the mainland's: 92.9% of visitors come for leisure, average expenditure growth (9%) has been more moderate than the mainland's (19%), and the package-tour share (67.2%) is now the highest on record. Beach tourism accounts for 88.9% of all recorded activity, with wildlife (10.6%) — largely dolphin and marine excursions — a distant second.
| Purpose of visit | Package | Non-package | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leisure and holidays | 702.6 | 486.4 | 1,188.9 |
| Visiting friends & relatives | 0.4 | 1.1 | 1.5 |
| Business | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.3 |
| Other | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Total earnings | 703.2 | 487.6 | 1,190.8 |
Zanzibar's near-total dependence on leisure tourism (over 92% of arrivals) makes it more exposed to global discretionary-spending cycles than the mainland's more diversified visitor base — a risk concentration policymakers should weigh alongside the island's clear revenue strengths.
Methodology note: The figures below are TICGL Economic Research indicative projections, not official government forecasts. They apply three compound annual growth rate (CAGR) scenarios to the 2025 base year (2,294,495 arrivals; USD 4,410.6 million in earnings): a Low case (4% arrivals / 6% earnings CAGR, reflecting a slowdown toward the global UN Tourism outlook of 3–4%), a Base case (6% arrivals / 9% earnings CAGR, aligned with Tanzania's broader ~6% GDP growth trajectory and continued per-visitor spend gains), and a High case (8% arrivals / 12% earnings CAGR, reflecting sustained momentum from Tanzania's 2025 World Travel Awards wins and expanding air connectivity).
Historical: ISD/NBS. Projections 2026–2031: TICGL Economic Research (indicative, non-official).
Historical: BOT/MNRT. Projections 2026–2031: TICGL Economic Research (indicative, non-official).
| Year | Low (4% CAGR) | Base (6% CAGR) | High (8% CAGR) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2,386,275 | 2,432,165 | 2,478,055 |
| 2027 | 2,481,726 | 2,578,095 | 2,676,299 |
| 2028 | 2,580,995 | 2,732,781 | 2,890,403 |
| 2029 | 2,684,235 | 2,896,748 | 3,121,635 |
| 2030 | 2,791,604 | 3,070,553 | 3,371,366 |
| 2031 | 2,903,268 | 3,254,786 | 3,641,075 |
| Year | Low (6% CAGR) | Base (9% CAGR) | High (12% CAGR) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4,675.2 | 4,807.5 | 4,939.9 |
| 2027 | 4,955.7 | 5,240.2 | 5,532.7 |
| 2028 | 5,253.0 | 5,711.8 | 6,196.6 |
| 2029 | 5,568.2 | 6,225.9 | 6,940.2 |
| 2030 | 5,902.3 | 6,786.2 | 7,773.0 |
| 2031 | 6,256.4 | 7,396.9 | 8,705.8 |
Visitors were candid about what needs improvement. Roads and infrastructure top the list by a wide margin in both mainland Tanzania (35.3% of comments) and Zanzibar (29.6%), followed by airport and hotel facilities, and traffic congestion.
| Area | URT (%) | Zanzibar (%) |
|---|---|---|
| Roads and infrastructure | 35.3 | 29.6 |
| Airport and hotel facilities | 8.5 | 7.7 |
| Traffic jams | 7.0 | 5.3 |
| Visa and airport procedures | 4.9 | 6.1 |
| Security and safety | 3.2 | 5.6 |
| Social services | 3.6 | 3.8 |
| Customer service quality | 3.5 | 4.5 |
| Conservation measures | 3.1 | 4.8 |
The government has responded with targeted investment: ongoing road construction inside Ngorongoro Conservation Area, Ruaha and Mikumi national parks; the near-complete Msalato International Airport in Dodoma; expansion of AAKIA in Zanzibar; and new airstrips at Tanga, Lake Manyara, Nyerere National Park and Serengeti Mugumu. These directly target the infrastructure bottleneck visitors flag most consistently — and represent the clearest lever for converting the High-case forecast scenario (Section 8) into reality.
Three factors underpin a positive medium-term outlook for Tanzania's tourism-driven growth: (1) brand momentum — Tanzania's 18-award sweep at the 2025 World Travel Awards, Serengeti's ranking as Africa's best wildlife park, and a top-10 global ranking for natural beauty are raising the country's profile in exactly the long-haul, high-spend markets (US, Italy, China) that already post the highest per-night expenditure; (2) connectivity investment — new routes (e.g., RwandAir's Kigali–Zanzibar service) and airport upgrades are reducing a structural constraint on arrivals growth; and (3) product diversification — the leading attractions' combined visitor share fell from 62.6% (2024) to 58.9% (2025), showing visitors are spreading demand across a wider range of sites, which reduces overcrowding risk at flagship parks and builds resilience into the visitor economy.
For policymakers, the clearest actionable insight from the 2025 data is that value capture, not just volume, is the more powerful growth lever: a 1 percentage-point increase in average nightly expenditure has historically moved earnings more than a 1 percentage-point increase in arrivals. Continued investment in service quality, product diversification beyond traditional wildlife/beach circuits, and infrastructure that reduces friction (roads, airports, visa processes) should therefore be prioritised alongside — not instead of — market-diversification and route-development efforts.
Tanzania's tourism sector earned USD 4,410.6 million in 2025, up 13% from USD 3,903.1 million in 2024. Zanzibar separately recorded USD 1,190.8 million, up 19.3% from USD 997.8 million in 2024.
Tanzania recorded 2,294,495 international arrivals in 2025 (+7.1% year-on-year). Zanzibar recorded 654,880 arrivals (+9%).
The United States (12.4%), Italy (11.8%), France (7.0%), Kenya (6.4%) and the United Kingdom (6.0%) lead mainland arrivals. Italy (18.8%), France (10.6%), the UK (7.7%) and the US (6.6%) lead Zanzibar arrivals.
Under TICGL's Base-case scenario (6% CAGR), arrivals could reach approximately 3.07 million in 2030 and 3.25 million in 2031, with earnings potentially reaching USD 6.8 billion and USD 7.4 billion respectively. These are indicative research estimates, not official projections.
In 2025, average expenditure was USD 289 per person per night in mainland Tanzania and USD 274 per person per night in Zanzibar.
Hapa chini ni muhtasari wa uchambuzi huu wa kiuchumi kuhusu sekta ya utalii Tanzania kwa mwaka 2025, kama ulivyoainishwa katika Ripoti ya Utafiti wa Watalii Wanaotoka nchini (International Visitors' Exit Survey) 2025.
Kwa uchambuzi zaidi wa kina wa uchumi wa Tanzania na safari yake kuelekea Dira 2050, soma makala yetu: What's Next for Tanzania's Economy?
Data Source The 2025 International Visitors' Exit Survey Report — Ministry of Natural Resources and Tourism (MNRT), Bank of Tanzania (BOT), National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), Immigration Services Department (ISD), Zanzibar Commission for Tourism (ZCT). Global figures: UNWTO World Tourism Barometer, January 2026. TICGL forecast figures (Section 8) are TICGL Economic Research estimates and are not official government projections.