Tanzania holds a strategic position in East Africa, blessed with vast reserves of critical minerals such as graphite, nickel, and helium, along with direct access to the Indian Ocean and a long-standing tradition of non-alignment in international affairs. As major global powers—the United States, China, and Russia—heighten their competition for influence across Africa, driven largely by the continent's rich deposits of resources essential for clean energy technologies and advanced manufacturing, Tanzania finds itself navigating an increasingly complex geopolitical landscape. This competition brings both opportunities and risks, and recent events, including the U.S.-facilitated peace agreement between the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Rwanda in December 2025, highlight how these dynamics are playing out with direct implications for Tanzania.
The United States views Africa as a critical arena for securing alternative supply chains for minerals, aiming to reduce dependence on China-dominated markets. Through initiatives like the Lobito Corridor and the Minerals Security Partnership, Washington emphasizes investments in mining and infrastructure, often linking security assistance to resource access. China, by contrast, prioritizes long-term economic engagement via the Belt and Road Initiative and the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation, with significant projects in Tanzania such as the Standard Gauge Railway and investments in ports like Bagamoyo. Russia's approach focuses more on military cooperation and resource extraction, often through private entities, though its presence in Tanzania remains limited compared to other regions. For Tanzania, this multipolar interest translates into increased investment inflows and greater bargaining power, yet it also raises concerns over potential debt sustainability, environmental impacts, and pressures on national sovereignty.
A notable recent development occurred in early December 2025 when U.S. President Donald Trump hosted DRC President Félix Tshisekedi and Rwandan President Paul Kagame in Washington to sign a peace agreement aimed at resolving the ongoing conflict in eastern DRC. The accord included commitments to a U.S.-DRC strategic partnership, opening doors for American investments in mining diversification, rail infrastructure, and critical minerals processing, with similar opportunities extended to Rwanda. While the event centered on these two nations, it carried broader regional implications for stability and resource development. Tanzania's President Samia Suluhu Hassan was conspicuously absent from the proceedings, a fact confirmed despite circulating altered images suggesting otherwise. This exclusion may reflect several factors, including Western criticism of Tanzania's handling of recent election-related issues, which prompted reviews of aid and funding; differing infrastructure priorities that favor Chinese-linked eastern routes over U.S.-backed western corridors; and Tanzania's preference for African-led mediation processes over direct great-power intervention.
In this evolving geopolitical context, Tanzania maintains a pragmatic and independent stance, drawing on its historical non-aligned foreign policy. Under President Samia, the country has actively courted Western investment while preserving robust ties with China, allowing it to leverage competition for favorable terms and position itself as a reliable gateway for East African trade and mineral exports. This approach strengthens Tanzania's sovereignty and enables potential mediation roles in regional conflicts through bodies like the East African Community or the Southern African Development Community. However, temporary sidelining from U.S.-led initiatives risks limiting access to emerging opportunities in the global critical minerals market, particularly amid strained relations with Western partners over governance concerns.
Overall, Tanzania appears committed to cautious independence, avoiding deep alignment with any single power bloc to safeguard its autonomy. While this strategy helps mitigate external pressures, it may occasionally reduce the country's immediate influence in rapidly evolving deals driven by major powers. Looking ahead, the most advantageous path for Tanzania lies in diversifying partnerships—deepening engagement with the United States on minerals and technology while sustaining Chinese infrastructure collaborations—to maximize benefits in Africa's transforming geopolitical environment. The December 2025 DRC-Rwanda agreement serves as a clear illustration of how security and resource interests are increasingly intertwined, underscoring the importance of agile diplomacy for nations like Tanzania in this new era of great power competition.
Looking ahead, Tanzania's geopolitical positioning could have profound implications for its domestic politics in the coming years. The strained relations with Western partners, particularly the United States, stemming from concerns over post-election violence and governance issues in late 2025, may lead to increased international scrutiny and potential reductions in foreign aid or diplomatic support. This could embolden domestic opposition voices calling for reforms or transitional arrangements, potentially heightening internal political tensions if not addressed through inclusive dialogue. At the same time, Tanzania's commitment to non-alignment and closer ties with China and other non-Western powers might provide a buffer, allowing the government to maintain stability by diversifying alliances and reducing dependence on conditional Western assistance. However, persistent perceptions of democratic backsliding could erode Tanzania's regional standing as a stable powerhouse in East Africa, complicating its leadership roles in bodies like the East African Community or Southern African Development Community.
On the economic front, the interplay of great power competition offers significant opportunities alongside notable risks. Tanzania's abundant critical minerals—such as graphite, nickel, and rare earth elements—are poised to drive substantial growth, with ongoing reforms under President Samia Suluhu Hassan aimed at attracting transparent investments and value addition in the sector. Projects like the Kabanga Nickel initiative and advancing graphite developments could position Tanzania as a key player in global supply chains for electric vehicles and renewable energy, potentially boosting exports and GDP contributions from mining beyond current levels. Recent progress in negotiations with the United States on major deals, including nickel and graphite cooperation despite bilateral reviews, suggests room for diversified foreign direct investment. Strong partnerships with China, including infrastructure upgrades like the TAZARA Railway, continue to provide reliable funding without stringent political conditions, supporting long-term development in ports, railways, and energy.
Nevertheless, political turbulence could cast a shadow over this outlook. If Western reviews lead to withheld donor support or investor hesitation amid governance concerns, Tanzania might face short-term economic pressures, including slower growth in tourism or aid-dependent sectors. Over-reliance on Chinese investments risks debt sustainability challenges or environmental backlash, while exclusion from certain U.S.-led mineral initiatives could limit access to advanced processing technologies. Overall, a balanced approach—improving governance to rebuild Western trust while leveraging Eastern partnerships—could enable Tanzania to capitalize on the global minerals boom, fostering resilient economic transformation through the late 2020s. Failure to navigate these dynamics adeptly, however, might result in missed opportunities and heightened vulnerability to external economic shifts.