A comprehensive TICGL analysis of Tanzania's engagement with the global economy — tracing the flows of goods, services, and capital that shape trade competitiveness, tourism strength, and import dependency in 2026.
The current account deficit narrowed to USD 2,108.2 million for the year ending February 2026, compared to USD 2,156.3 million in the corresponding period of 2025 — a modest improvement of USD 48.1 million (2.2%). This improvement was powered by a strong goods export performance, particularly gold, and continued growth in tourism services receipts.
Tanzania's export engine fired strongly in the year to February 2026. Total goods and services exports grew 12.4% to USD 18,393.2 million, powered by a 35.8% surge in gold exports, robust tourism receipts, and manufactured goods. Goods exports alone grew 15.0%, while services exports expanded 8.8%.
Gold exports surged 35.8% to USD 4,968.4 million in the year to February 2026, from USD 3,658.9 million a year earlier — driven by favourable global gold prices, which averaged USD 5,019.97 per troy ounce in February 2026 (up from USD 2,894.73 in February 2025, a gain of over 73%). Gold now accounts for approximately 45.7% of total goods exports and represents Tanzania's single largest export by value. This concentration creates both opportunity (as gold prices remain elevated) and risk (vulnerability to commodity price reversals). Diversification into manufactured goods — which grew 26.1% to USD 1,705.1 million — signals an emerging shift toward value-added production.
Tanzania's services sector continued its upward trajectory in the year ending February 2026, with total receipts rising 8.8% to USD 7,520.3 million. Three categories dominate: Tourism (Travel), Transport, and Other Services. Tourism remains the crown jewel, while freight/transport income reflects Tanzania's growing role as a transit corridor for landlocked neighbours.
Tourism (Travel) remains Tanzania's largest single services export category, accounting for 57.9% of total services receipts. The year to February 2026 saw tourism receipts grow 9.3% to USD 4,352.3 million, supported by a 4.2% increase in international tourist arrivals to 2,255,006 visitors. Tanzania's world-class wildlife, Zanzibar beaches, and Kilimanjaro continue to attract high-value visitors.
With tourist arrivals growing 4.2% but receipts rising 9.3%, Tanzania's revenue per visitor is increasing — from approximately USD 1,758 per arrival in 2025 to an estimated USD 1,930 in 2026. This signals both higher-value tourist segments (luxury safari, premium beach) and longer average stays. TICGL identifies the tourism-adjacent investment universe — hospitality, logistics, MICE (meetings, incentives, conferences, exhibitions), and cultural tourism — as among Tanzania's highest-potential sectors for foreign direct investment in 2026–2028.
Imports of goods and services rose to USD 18,634.2 million in the year ending February 2026, reflecting higher demand for productive inputs — industrial supplies, transport equipment, machinery, and freight services. A key positive: oil imports declined 16.6% to USD 2,110.2 million, driven by softer global petroleum prices, partially offsetting the broad import increase.
Service payments grew 17.8% to USD 3,354.9 million in the year ending February 2026, driven primarily by higher freight costs aligned with Tanzania's growing import bill. Transport (freight) payments dominate at USD 1,541.1 million, followed by Other Services at USD 1,074.6 million, and Travel at USD 739.2 million.
Services payments grew at 17.8% in the year to February 2026, significantly faster than services receipts at 8.8%. While Tanzania still runs a comfortable services surplus (receipts exceed payments by USD 4,165.5M), the rate of divergence warrants monitoring. The primary driver is travel payments surging 34.7% — reflecting higher outbound travel by residents and business travelers — alongside rising freight costs and growing use of international financial, insurance, and professional services. For the services surplus to remain robust, tourism receipts must continue outpacing these growing payment outflows.
All figures sourced directly from the Bank of Tanzania March 2026 Monthly Economic Review. Values in USD millions unless stated.
| Item | Feb-25 | Jan-26 | Feb-26p | Yr Feb 2024 | Yr Feb 2025 | Yr Feb 2026p | % Change (Yr) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goods Account (Net) | -228.5 | -292.4 | -287.1 | -5,996.1 | -4,782.3 | -4,406.5 | ▼ Improving -7.9% |
| Goods Exports | 710.0 | 1,083.6 | 965.2 | 7,794.3 | 9,451.6 | 10,872.9 | +15.0% |
| Goods Imports | 938.5 | 1,376.0 | 1,252.3 | 13,790.4 | 14,233.9 | 15,279.3 | +7.3% |
| Services Account (Net) | 370.4 | 305.3 | 323.6 | 4,010.2 | 4,066.3 | 4,165.5 | +2.4% |
| Services Receipts | 598.8 | 606.8 | 608.6 | 6,340.1 | 6,913.9 | 7,520.3 | +8.8% |
| Services Payments | 228.4 | 301.5 | 285.0 | 2,329.9 | 2,847.6 | 3,354.9 | +17.8% |
| G&S Balance | 141.9 | 12.9 | 36.5 | -1,985.9 | -716.0 | -241.0 | ▼ Improving -66.3% |
| Total Exports G&S | 1,308.8 | 1,690.4 | 1,573.8 | 14,134.4 | 16,365.5 | 18,393.2 | +12.4% |
| Total Imports G&S | 1,167.0 | 1,677.5 | 1,537.3 | 16,120.3 | 17,081.5 | 18,634.2 | +9.1% |
| Primary Income Account | -162.9 | -199.7 | -218.7 | -1,531.6 | -1,971.8 | -2,133.0 | +8.2% |
| Secondary Income Account | 16.9 | 27.7 | 27.7 | 699.6 | 531.5 | 265.8 | -50.0% |
| CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE | -4.2 | -159.1 | -154.4 | -2,818.0 | -2,156.3 | -2,108.2 | ▼ Improving -2.2% |
| Category | Feb-25 | Jan-26 | Feb-26p | Yr Feb 2024 | Yr Feb 2025 | Yr Feb 2026p | % Change | Share 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travel (Tourism) | — | — | — | 3,495.3 | 3,981.3 | 4,352.3 | +9.3% | 57.9% |
| Transport (Freight) | — | — | — | 2,297.1 | 2,385.4 | 2,726.0 | +14.3% | 36.2% |
| Other Services | — | — | — | 547.8 | 547.2 | 442.0 | -19.2% | 5.9% |
| TOTAL Services Receipts | 598.8 | 606.8 | 608.6 | 6,340.1 | 6,913.9 | 7,520.3 | +8.8% | 100% |
| Category | Feb-25 | Jan-26 | Feb-26p | Yr Feb 2024 | Yr Feb 2025 | Yr Feb 2026p | % Change | Share 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Transport (Freight) | — | — | — | 1,283.8 | 1,406.0 | 1,541.1 | +9.6% | 45.9% |
| Other Services | — | — | — | 640.9 | 892.8 | 1,074.6 | +20.4% | 32.0% |
| Travel | — | — | — | 405.2 | 548.9 | 739.2 | +34.7% | 22.0% |
| TOTAL Services Payments | 228.4 | 301.5 | 285.0 | 2,329.9 | 2,847.6 | 3,354.9 | +17.8% | 100% |
| Export Item | Yr Feb 2025 | Yr Feb 2026p | Change (USD M) | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold | 3,658.9 | 4,968.4 | +1,309.5 | +35.8% |
| Travel (Tourism) | 3,981.3 | 4,352.3 | +371.0 | +9.3% |
| Transportation | 2,385.4 | 2,726.0 | +340.6 | +14.3% |
| Manufactured Goods | 1,351.8 | 1,705.1 | +353.3 | +26.1% |
| Tobacco | 525.4 | 625.7 | +100.3 | +19.1% |
| Cashewnuts | 522.3 | 493.5 | -28.8 | -5.5% |
| Horticultural Products | 499.3 | 465.1 | -34.2 | -6.9% |
| Coffee | 323.5 | 403.8 | +80.3 | +24.8% |
| Oil Seeds | 297.7 | 272.0 | -25.7 | -8.6% |
| Cereals | 328.1 | 198.9 | -129.2 | -39.4% |
TICGL's strategic interpretation of Tanzania's external sector data for investors, trade partners, and policy-focused stakeholders.
Three forces will shape Tanzania's external balance through the rest of 2026: (1) Gold prices — with prices near USD 5,020/oz, any correction would immediately impact export earnings; TICGL monitors this as the single highest-impact variable. (2) Tourism recovery momentum — with tourist arrivals growing 4.2% and revenue per visitor rising, Tanzania is well-positioned for a strong H2 2026 safari and beach season; Air Tanzania's route expansion is a direct positive catalyst. (3) Global freight rates — the Strait of Hormuz tensions cited in the BoT report are raising freight costs; any escalation increases Tanzania's services payment burden while also inflating the import bill. Net result: the current account should remain in the USD 2.0–2.2 billion deficit range for full-year 2026, broadly stable.