00 - OVERVIEWExecutive Summary: Services Soften the Blow of an Oil-Driven Goods Deficit
The deficit widened. The current account deficit rose to USD 2,397.5M from USD 1,879.3M as imports of goods and services grew 24.0% against 19.9% for exports. The goods deficit reached USD 6,241.2M (+35.8%); petroleum imports jumped 72.3% to USD 3,813.6M.
Services are the shock absorber. The services surplus rose 19.8% to USD 5,172.2M and covered about 83% of the goods deficit (47% in 2021).
But the engine changed. Of the USD 1,111.9M rise in service receipts, transport supplied 73% and travel only 16%. Travel receipts grew 4.1% to USD 4,565.8M; transport grew 30.3% to USD 3,478.7M on transit-trade freight.
Payments are contained. Service payments rose 8.0%, with freight up 25.8% offset by lower travel and other-services outflows. September alone showed a monthly current account surplus of USD 421.2M.
Current Account Components, Year to September
| Test | Evidence | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| Balance | CA -USD 2,397.5M (+27.6% wider) | Deteriorating |
| Services cover | Surplus = 83% of goods deficit | Strong buffer |
| Mix | Transport 73% of receipts growth; travel 16% | Shifting |
| Buffer | Reserves USD 6.0B, 4.3 months | Adequate |
01 - CURRENT ACCOUNTGoods Deficit, Services Surplus, Income Gaps
The external sector faces headwinds from Middle East tensions: import growth outpaced exports, though strong exports partly cushioned the deficit. The goods and services deficit widened to USD 1,069.0M from USD 280.4M; the primary income deficit (payments to non-residents) stayed near USD 2.1B and the secondary income surplus rose 60.4% to USD 761.4M on personal transfers.
Monthly Current Account Components
Current Account Deficit and its Share of GDP
Exports vs Imports of Goods and Services
| USD million | Yr to Sep-24 | Yr to Sep-25 | Yr to Sep-26p | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goods account | -5,928.7 | -4,596.3 | -6,241.2 | +35.8% |
| Services account | 4,062.9 | 4,315.9 | 5,172.2 | +19.8% |
| Goods and services | -1,865.8 | -280.4 | -1,069.0 | wider |
| Primary income | -1,735.4 | -2,073.6 | -2,089.8 | +0.8% |
| Secondary income | 585.2 | 474.6 | 761.4 | +60.4% |
| Current account | -3,016.0 | -1,879.3 | -2,397.5 | +27.6% |
02 - SERVICES RECEIPTSExports of Services by Category: Travel, Transport and Other
Service receipts rose 14.8% to USD 8,620.2M in the year to September 2026, driven by tourism and transport earnings. Tourism receipts reached USD 4,565.8M; transport receipts USD 3,478.7M on freight linked to transit trade. Monthly receipts were USD 1,017.5M in September, up from about USD 703.5M a year earlier on travel.
Service Receipts by Category
Who Drove the 2026 Increase?
| Receipts (USD M) | 2024 | 2025 | 2026p | Growth 2026 | Share 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travel (tourism) | 3,792.1 | 4,387.6 | 4,565.8 | +4.1% | 53.0% |
| Transport | 2,283.6 | 2,669.9 | 3,478.7 | +30.3% | 40.4% |
| Other services | 591.4 | 450.8 | 575.7 | +27.7% | 6.7% |
| Total | 6,667.1 | 7,508.3 | 8,620.2 | +14.8% | 100% |
Table 2.1. Other services: construction, insurance, financial, telecommunications, computer and information, intellectual property charges, government, personal and other business services. Source: BoT; TICGL/TERI calc.
- Travel was 56.9% of receipts in 2024 and 53.0% in 2026. Calendar-year travel earnings rose from USD 1,310.3M (2021) to USD 4,410.6M (2025), 3.4 times, so the 2026 slowdown comes after a very fast rebound.
- Transport earnings are tied to transit trade and freight through Tanzanian corridors; they grew 30.3% as regional trade and port activity rose.
- Services were 40.9% of exports of goods and services in 2026, down from 44.8% in 2024 as goods exports (gold) grew faster.
03 - SERVICES PAYMENTSImports of Services: Freight Dominates
Service payments rose 8.0% to USD 3,448.1M, largely on higher freight payments in line with the increased import bill. Monthly payments were USD 288.2M in September (USD 270.6M a year earlier), mainly freight.
Service Payments by Category
Net Services by Category (Receipts minus Payments)
How Much of the Goods Deficit Do Services Cover?
| Payments (USD M) | 2024 | 2025 | 2026p | Growth 2026 | Net 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travel | 450.6 | 687.8 | 672.9 | -2.2% | +3,892.9 |
| Transport (freight) | 1,361.2 | 1,468.8 | 1,847.2 | +25.8% | +1,631.5 |
| Other services | 792.4 | 1,035.8 | 928.0 | -10.4% | -352.3 |
| Total | 2,604.2 | 3,192.4 | 3,448.1 | +8.0% | +5,172.2 |
- Freight payments of USD 1,706.6M (+29.4%) are 92% of transport payments and move with the goods import bill; transport receipts cover transport payments 1.9 times (1.7 times in 2024).
- Travel receipts are 6.8 times travel payments: tourism is the largest net services earner (USD 3.9B). "Other services" is the only net outflow (USD 352M).
04 - GOODS TRADEGold and Manufactures Up, Oil and Industrial Supplies Heavier
Exports of goods rose 23.7% to USD 12,444.9M, led by gold (USD 5,834.5M, from USD 4,431.2M) and manufactured goods (USD 2,202.4M, from USD 1,546.2M, on iron, steel and glassware). Tobacco rose; coffee and cashew declined. Imports of goods rose 27.5% to USD 18,686.1M.
Select Exports of Goods and Services
Select Imports of Goods and Services
- Gold is the single largest export (+31.7%), helped by favourable global prices and domestic production; the BoT's gold purchase programme supports reserves.
- Petroleum products (about 20% of goods imports) rose 72.3% to USD 3,813.6M on higher global prices; industrial supplies (USD 5,843.9M) and machinery (USD 1,572.1M, +39.9%) point to investment demand.
05 - OUTLOOK & ACTIONWhat to Watch and What to Do
| Driver | Risk or opportunity | Indicator |
|---|---|---|
| Oil prices | Petroleum imports +72%; every USD 10 a barrel widens the deficit | Brent, petroleum import bill |
| Tourism growth | Travel receipts slowed to +4.1% after a 3.4x rebound | Travel receipts, arrivals |
| Transit trade | Transport receipts +30% rely on regional demand and port efficiency | Freight receipts |
| Gold and manufactures | Gold +31.7%, manufactures +42%; gold price volatility | Export value by product |
| Reserves | USD 6.0B, 4.3 months; above the benchmark | Months of imports |
- Policymakers: keep reserves above benchmark, shift freight services toward local carriers and logistics, and track services by sub-category (tourism, ICT, business services) to widen the base.
- Investors: logistics, ports, hospitality and processing of gold and minerals show the strongest external demand.
- Businesses: expect freight costs to follow import volumes and oil prices.
06 - SOURCESSources & Data Notes
- Bank of Tanzania, Monthly Economic Review, October 2026: Section 2.7; Table 2.7.1; Charts 2.7.1-2.7.5; Tables A5, A6, A7.
- TICGL/TERI arithmetic: category shares, net services, contribution to growth, coverage of the goods deficit, services shares of exports and imports. Data are provisional (p). Table 2.7.1 exports include adjustments for informal cross-border exports (USD 12,444.9M), while Table A6 shows total goods exports of USD 12,042.9M; gold is USD 5,834.5M in the text and Chart 2.7.2 but USD 5,723.4M in Table A6; the text and chart values are used. Calendar-year series (Table A5) and years ending September are labelled separately. This page is research information, not financial advice.
07 - QUICK ANSWERSFrequently Asked Questions
What is Tanzania's current account deficit in 2026?
USD 2,397.5 million in the year to September 2026, up 27.6% from USD 1,879.3 million; reserves are USD 6,031.9 million (4.3 months of imports).
How much does Tanzania earn from services exports?
USD 8,620.2 million (+14.8%): travel USD 4,565.8 million, transport USD 3,478.7 million and other services USD 575.7 million.
What does Tanzania pay for services imports?
USD 3,448.1 million (+8.0%), led by transport/freight at USD 1,847.2 million; travel USD 672.9 million and other services USD 928.0 million.
Do services cover Tanzania's goods trade deficit?
About 83%: a services surplus of USD 5,172.2 million against a goods deficit of USD 6,241.2 million, up from 47% in 2021.
Muhtasari kwa Kiswahili
Sekta ya nje ya Tanzania inaendeleaje? Kwa mujibu wa Mapitio ya Kila Mwezi ya Uchumi ya Benki Kuu (Oktoba 2026): nakisi ya akaunti ya sasa imeongezeka kwa asilimia 27.6 hadi USD milioni 2,397.5 kwa mwaka ulioishia Septemba 2026, kwa sababu uagizaji wa bidhaa na huduma (+asilimia 24.0) umezidi mauzo nje (+asilimia 19.9).
- Mapato ya huduma (mauzo ya huduma nje): USD milioni 8,620.2 (+asilimia 14.8): usafiri wa kigeni (utalii) USD milioni 4,565.8 (+asilimia 4.1), usafirishaji USD milioni 3,478.7 (+asilimia 30.3), huduma nyingine USD milioni 575.7. Usafirishaji ulichangia asilimia 73 ya ongezeko.
- Malipo ya huduma (uagizaji): USD milioni 3,448.1 (+asilimia 8.0), yakiongozwa na usafirishaji wa mizigo (USD milioni 1,847.2).
- Ziada ya huduma ya USD milioni 5,172.2 inafidia takriban asilimia 83 ya nakisi ya bidhaa (USD milioni 6,241.2); uagizaji wa mafuta uliruka asilimia 72.3, na dhahabu ilipanda hadi USD milioni 5,834.5.
- Akiba ya fedha za kigeni: USD milioni 6,031.9, miezi 4.3 ya uagizaji. Mtazamo: bei za mafuta, kasi ya utalii na biashara ya kupita (transit) vitaamua mwelekeo.
Chanzo: BoT Monthly Economic Review, Oktoba 2026; mahesabu ya TICGL/TERI. Maelezo zaidi: economist@ticgl.com.