Executive Summary
Tanzania's economy carried strong growth momentum into the second quarter of 2026, with real GDP expanding 6.0 percent in Q1 2026 against 4.3 percent a year earlier, even as global energy and shipping costs stayed elevated on the back of the Middle East conflict. Headline inflation eased to 4.0 percent in June 2026, still comfortably inside the Bank of Tanzania's 3–5 percent target band, though core inflation's climb to 3.7 percent pushed the Monetary Policy Committee to raise the Central Bank Rate from 5.75 percent to 6.25 percent for Q3 2026.
On the debt side — the focus of this analysis — Tanzania's total national debt stock reached USD 50,595.8 million at the end of June 2026, essentially flat against May's USD 50,599.0 million. External debt made up 70.4 percent of that total at USD 35,606.1 million, with the central government responsible for the overwhelming majority of it. The currency mix remains heavily dollar-denominated, exposing the debt-service bill to shilling depreciation risk, while use-of-funds data shows financing concentrated in balance-of-payments/budget support, transport and telecommunication infrastructure, and social welfare and education.
This page unpacks the three debt breakdowns TICGL clients ask about most: who owes the money (by borrower), who lent it and in what currency, and what it was used for — set against the wider macroeconomic backdrop from the Bank of Tanzania's July 2026 Monthly Economic Review.
Related deep-dive: What's Next for Tanzania's Economy?
Before the numbers below, read TICGL's policy analysis on the structural gaps standing between Tanzania and its DIRA 2050 trillion-dollar economy ambition — essential context for interpreting today's debt and growth data.
Macroeconomic Snapshot: Growth & Inflation
Real GDP in Mainland Tanzania grew 6.0 percent in Q1 2026 against 4.3 percent in Q1 2025, driven chiefly by agriculture, financial and insurance services, and transport and storage. The Bank of Tanzania projects Q2 2026 growth of around 5.9 percent, supported by private-sector credit expansion, stable power supply, strong mineral output, tourism resilience, and infrastructure investment ahead of AFCON 2027.
Quarterly Real GDP Growth, 2022–2026 (%)
Headline, Food, Energy & Core Inflation (%)
| Indicator | Jun-25 | May-26 | Jun-26 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Headline inflation (%) | 3.3 | 4.2 | 4.0 |
| Core inflation (%) | 1.9 | 3.4 | 3.7 |
| Food inflation (%) | 7.3 | 5.6 | 4.1 |
| Energy, fuel & utilities inflation (%) | 2.1 | 5.0 | 6.3 |
| Central Bank Rate (%) | — | 5.75 | 5.75 (raised to 6.25 from Q3 2026) |
| Overall lending rate (%) | 15.23 | 15.32 | 15.20 |
| Extended broad money M3 growth (y/y, %) | 18.7 | 25.2 | 25.4 |
| Private sector credit growth (y/y, %) | — | 23.2 | 28.1 |
| Exchange rate (TZS/USD, monthly avg.) | — | 2,616.88 | 2,633.73 |
Source: Bank of Tanzania Monthly Economic Review, July 2026.
National Debt Overview
Tanzania's national debt — the combined external and domestic obligations of government and the private sector — stood at USD 50,595.8 million at the end of June 2026, marginally below May's USD 50,599.0 million. External debt accounted for 70.4 percent of the total, with domestic debt (denominated in Tanzanian shillings) making up the balance.
National Debt Stock Trend: External vs Domestic (USD Millions)
| Period | External Debt | Domestic Debt | Total Debt | TZS/USD (EOP) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun-25 | 34,765.3 | 13,631.1 | 48,396.3 | 2,604.6 |
| Sep-25 | 35,642.2 | 15,407.9 | 51,050.1 | 2,442.8 |
| Dec-25 | 35,528.8 | 15,485.0 | 51,013.8 | 2,447.5 |
| Mar-26 | 35,886.2 | 14,917.3 | 50,803.5 | 2,577.4 |
| Apr-26 | 36,506.1 | 15,117.6 | 51,623.7 | 2,602.0 |
| May-26 | 35,553.3 | 15,045.7 | 50,599.0 | 2,609.2 |
| Jun-26 | 35,606.1 | 14,989.7 | 50,595.8 | 2,623.5 |
Source: Ministry of Finance and Bank of Tanzania, Table A10, BOT Monthly Economic Review, July 2026.
Stable overall stock
Total national debt has held in a narrow USD 48.4–51.7 billion band over the past 13 months, suggesting disciplined overall borrowing even as individual components moved.
Domestic debt eased back
Domestic debt peaked near USD 15.7 billion in October 2025 and has since drifted down to USD 15.0 billion, partly a function of shilling movements against the dollar.
External debt dominates
External obligations consistently represent roughly seven of every ten dollars of national debt, keeping Tanzania's debt-service bill sensitive to global interest rates and the exchange rate.
External Debt Stock by Borrower
The external debt stock (public and private combined) rose marginally by 0.1 percent to USD 35,606.1 million at the end of June 2026. The central government remains by far the dominant borrower, holding 83.1 percent of the stock, with the private sector holding the remaining 16.9 percent. Public corporations carried no external debt in June 2026 — TANESCO, ATCL, TRC, TPA, TFC and DAWASA are recorded as having no outstanding external debt.
External Debt Stock by Borrower, June 2026
External Debt by Borrower: 3-Month Trend
| Borrower | Jun-25 (Amount) | Share % | May-26 (Amount) | Share % | Jun-26 (Amount) | Share % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Central government | 28,243.6 | 81.2 | 29,611.6 | 83.3 | 29,606.0 | 83.1 |
| — Disbursed outstanding debt (DOD) | 28,164.9 | 81.0 | 29,531.1 | 83.1 | 29,525.6 | 82.9 |
| — Interest arrears | 78.7 | 0.2 | 80.6 | 0.2 | 80.4 | 0.2 |
| Private sector | 6,517.9 | 18.7 | 5,941.7 | 16.7 | 6,000.1 | 16.9 |
| — Disbursed outstanding debt (DOD) | 5,884.3 | 16.9 | 5,739.5 | 16.1 | 5,761.9 | 16.2 |
| — Interest arrears | 633.6 | 1.8 | 202.3 | 0.6 | 238.3 | 0.7 |
| Public corporations | 3.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| External debt stock | 34,765.3 | 100.0 | 35,553.3 | 100.0 | 35,606.1 | 100.0 |
Source: Ministry of Finance and Bank of Tanzania, Table 2.7.1, BOT Monthly Economic Review, July 2026. DOD = disbursed outstanding debt.
External Debt Stock by Creditor
Multilateral institutions continue to be Tanzania's largest external creditor group, holding 59.3 percent of the external debt stock in June 2026 — up from 56.8 percent a year earlier — followed by commercial lenders at 34.4 percent, bilateral creditors at 4.3 percent, and export credit agencies at 1.9 percent.
External Debt by Creditor Category, June 2026
Creditor Composition Trend (%)
| Creditor | Jun-25 | Share % | May-26 | Share % | Jun-26 | Share % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Multilateral | 19,756.7 | 56.8 | 20,977.6 | 59.0 | 21,122.7 | 59.3 |
| Bilateral | 1,507.8 | 4.3 | 1,558.5 | 4.4 | 1,529.3 | 4.3 |
| Commercial | 12,439.1 | 35.8 | 12,331.1 | 34.7 | 12,261.4 | 34.4 |
| Export credit | 1,061.7 | 3.1 | 686.2 | 1.9 | 692.7 | 1.9 |
| External debt stock | 34,765.3 | 100.0 | 35,553.4 | 100.0 | 35,606.1 | 100.0 |
Source: Ministry of Finance and Bank of Tanzania, Table 2.7.2, BOT Monthly Economic Review, July 2026.
Disbursed Outstanding Debt by Use of Funds
Breaking the disbursed outstanding external debt down by what it actually financed shows Balance of Payments and budget support leading at 22.1 percent, closely followed by transport and telecommunication at 22.0 percent — together nearly 45 percent of all disbursed external debt. Social welfare and education (19.5%) and energy and mining (12.8%) round out the largest categories, while tourism remains the smallest recipient at just 1.7 percent.
Disbursed Outstanding Debt by Use of Funds (% Share)
| Activity | Jun-25 | May-26 | Jun-26 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balance of Payments & budget support | 21.9 | 22.3 | 22.1 | ▲ Largest use |
| Transport & telecommunication | 21.1 | 22.1 | 22.0 | ▲ |
| Social welfare & education | 19.9 | 19.5 | 19.5 | ◆ Stable |
| Energy & mining | 13.0 | 12.4 | 12.8 | ◆ Stable |
| Real estate & construction | 4.4 | 5.1 | 5.1 | ▲ |
| Agriculture | 5.3 | 5.4 | 5.3 | ◆ Stable |
| Finance & insurance | 4.1 | 4.2 | 4.2 | ◆ Stable |
| Other | 5.1 | 4.6 | 4.6 | ▼ |
| Industries | 3.5 | 2.8 | 2.8 | ▼ |
| Tourism | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.7 | ◆ Stable, smallest |
| Total | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | — |
Source: Ministry of Finance and Bank of Tanzania, Table 2.7.3, BOT Monthly Economic Review, July 2026.
Infrastructure-heavy portfolio
Transport, telecommunication, energy and mining together absorb over a third of disbursed debt — consistent with Tanzania's strategic infrastructure investment agenda.
BoP support still large
Nearly a quarter of external debt exists to support the balance of payments and government budget directly, rather than a specific physical asset.
Tourism under-leveraged
Despite tourism being a top foreign-exchange earner (see external sector data below), it draws the smallest share of external financing at 1.7 percent.
Disbursed Outstanding Debt by Currency Composition
Currency risk in Tanzania's external debt portfolio remains concentrated. The US Dollar accounted for 66.2 percent of disbursed outstanding debt in June 2026 — up slightly from 65.9 percent in May — followed by the Euro at 17.4 percent and the Chinese Yuan at 6.7 percent. All other currencies combined made up just 9.8 percent.
Currency Composition, June 2026
Currency Composition Trend (%)
| Currency | Jun-25 | May-26 | Jun-26 |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States Dollar | 66.0 | 65.9 | 66.2 |
| Euro | 17.7 | 17.5 | 17.4 |
| Chinese Yuan | 6.4 | 6.6 | 6.7 |
| Other currencies | 9.9 | 9.9 | 9.8 |
| Total | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
Source: Ministry of Finance and Bank of Tanzania, Table 2.7.4, BOT Monthly Economic Review, July 2026.
Domestic Debt Developments
Government's domestic debt stock rose marginally to TZS 39,325.85 billion at the end of June 2026, up from TZS 39,257.3 billion in May. Government securities (Treasury bills, bonds and stocks) make up 84.7 percent of domestic debt, with the overdraft facility with the Bank of Tanzania constituting the largest slice of non-securitized debt. Commercial banks (28.8%) and pension funds (26.4%) remain the government's largest domestic creditors.
Domestic Debt Stock Growth, 2018–2026
Domestic Debt by Creditor Category, June 2026
| Category | Jun-25 | Share % | May-26 | Share % | Jun-26 | Share % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Commercial banks | 10,161.5 | 28.6 | 11,149.8 | 28.4 | 11,320.8 | 28.8 |
| Pension funds | 9,265.7 | 26.1 | 10,441.4 | 26.6 | 10,399.0 | 26.4 |
| Bank of Tanzania | 7,174.1 | 20.2 | 7,455.1 | 19.0 | 7,197.1 | 18.3 |
| Others (public institutions, private, individuals, non-residents) | 6,420.4 | 18.1 | 7,381.7 | 18.8 | 7,547.4 | 19.2 |
| Insurance | 1,843.0 | 5.2 | 2,030.7 | 5.2 | 2,022.8 | 5.1 |
| BOT's special funds | 638.1 | 1.8 | 798.4 | 2.0 | 838.6 | 2.1 |
| Domestic debt stock (excl. liquidity papers) | 35,502.8 | 100.0 | 39,257.3 | 100.0 | 39,325.8 | 100.0 |
Source: Ministry of Finance and Bank of Tanzania, Table 2.7.6, BOT Monthly Economic Review, July 2026.
External Sector Performance & Reserves
The current account deficit widened to USD 2,303.9 million in the year ending June 2026, from USD 2,153.4 million a year earlier, as import growth (+18.1% to USD 20,815.7 million) outpaced export growth (+17.2% to USD 19,923.6 million). Gold remained the standout export performer, and gross official foreign exchange reserves closed June 2026 at USD 5,673.5 million — equivalent to 4.4 months of projected imports, above the four-month national benchmark.
Exports vs Imports of Goods & Services
Top Export Commodities, Year Ending June 2026
| Item | Year ending June 2025 | Year ending June 2026 (p) | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goods account balance | -4,580.0 | -5,657.7 | 23.5 |
| Services account balance | 3,951.4 | 4,765.6 | 20.6 |
| Exports of goods and services | 17,001.3 | 19,923.6 | 17.2 |
| Imports of goods and services | 17,629.8 | 20,815.7 | 18.1 |
| Primary income balance | -2,011.4 | -1,773.2 | -11.8 |
| Secondary income balance | 486.6 | 361.4 | -25.7 |
| Current account balance | -2,153.4 | -2,303.9 | 7.0 |
Source: Tanzania Revenue Authority, banks, and Bank of Tanzania, Table 2.8.1, BOT Monthly Economic Review, July 2026.
What This Means for Investors & Policymakers
Debt sustainability looks manageable
National debt has held broadly steady for over a year and reserves comfortably exceed the four-month import cover benchmark — a reassuring signal for sovereign risk assessments.
Dollar exposure needs active hedging
With 66.2 percent of external debt in USD, any renewed dollar strength or shilling weakness will directly raise the shilling cost of debt service — a key variable for PPP and infrastructure financing structures.
Infrastructure financing dominates
Nearly 35 percent of external debt use of funds sits in transport, telecommunication, energy and mining — sectors where TICGL's PPP advisory work is most active.
Multilateral reliance is rising
Multilateral creditors' share climbed from 56.8% to 59.3% year-on-year, generally favourable given typically concessional terms relative to commercial borrowing.
Widening current account deficit
Import growth continues to outpace exports, reinforcing the case for export diversification beyond gold and stronger domestic value addition.
Rate environment tightening
The MPC's move to 6.25 percent for Q3 2026 signals vigilance on second-round inflation effects — relevant for anyone modelling local-currency financing costs.