The Tanzania shilling (TZS) exhibited strong stability and net appreciation throughout 2025, bolstered by robust foreign exchange (FX) inflows from gold exports (USD 2.8 billion YTD through October, +38.9% YoY), tourism receipts (USD 2.8 billion, +28% arrivals), cash crops (cashews +15%), and Bank of Tanzania (BoT) interventions, including forward contracts and reserve accumulation (net FX reserves at USD 6.17 billion as of October 2025, covering 4.7 months of imports). As of December 13, 2025, the shilling traded at approximately TZS 2,463 per USD (mid-market rate), reflecting a slight 0.5% depreciation from November's end-month rate of TZS 2,455 but maintaining a cumulative 8.5% appreciation from October 2024's TZS 2,693. This resilience contrasts with the 8.9% depreciation in the prior year, aligning with EAC convergence goals and supporting monetary policy transmission.
Economic Implications: The shilling's firmness enhances import affordability (e.g., fuel and machinery costs down 10-15%), curbing non-food inflation at ~2.1% in November 2025 and preserving household purchasing power amid 3.4% headline inflation. This stability bolsters reserves (up 14% YoY), reducing external vulnerability and facilitating 6.2% GDP growth projections for FY2025/26 by lowering production costs in import-dependent sectors like manufacturing (3.5% expansion). Investor confidence has surged, with FDI inflows at USD 1.5 billion in Q3 2025 (+10% YoY), but prolonged appreciation pressures non-gold exporters (e.g., 4-6% margin erosion in horticulture), underscoring diversification needs to sustain 7% medium-term growth and mitigate Dutch disease risks, per IMF's 2025 Article IV consultation. Read More: Tanzania Shilling Strengthens 0.75% Monthly as National Debt Reaches USD 50.77 Billion
(End-month values, updated through December 13, 2025)
| Month (2024–2025) | Exchange Rate (TZS/USD) | Movement |
| Oct 2024 | 2,693.1 | — |
| Nov 2024 | 2,620.6 | Appreciated 2.7% |
| Dec 2024 | 2,394.8 | Appreciated 8.6% |
| Jan 2025 | 2,486.6 | Depreciated 3.8% |
| Feb 2025 | 2,581.3 | Depreciated 3.8% |
| Mar 2025 | 2,650.0 | Depreciated 2.7% |
| Apr 2025 | 2,679.2 | Slight depreciation 1.1% |
| May 2025 | 2,685.6 | Stable |
| Jun 2025 | 2,604.6 | Appreciated 3.0% |
| Jul 2025 | 2,545.8 | Appreciated 2.3% |
| Aug 2025 | 2,463.3 | Appreciated 3.2% |
| Sep 2025 | 2,442.8 | Appreciated 0.8% |
| Oct 2025 | 2,451.6 | Slight depreciation 0.4% |
| Nov 2025 | 2,455.3 | Slight depreciation 0.15% |
| Dec 2025 (13th) | 2,463.0 | Slight depreciation 0.3% |
Source: BoT data through October; updated November-December from market sources (Xe.com, Wise, exchange-rates.org). Key Point: In October 2025, the shilling averaged TZS 2,460.54/USD, appreciating 9.5% annually—a strong recovery from 2024's depreciation. By December 13, 2025, the rate stabilized at TZS 2,463/USD, with minor Q4 volatility tied to seasonal imports but overall firmness amid USD 1.2 billion in November inflows (tourism +30.6%).
Economic Implications: Monthly trends reveal a V-shaped recovery post-January dip, driven by export peaks (gold in Q3), which cushioned 15% of imports (energy/capital goods) and supported 21.5% M3 growth. This pattern enhances trade balances (current account deficit at 2.4% GDP), but Q4 depreciation risks (0.3%) could add 0.2-0.3% to inflation if sustained, per BoT models—mitigable via continued interventions to preserve 4.7-month reserve adequacy.
Tanzania's total national debt stock (domestic + external) stood at USD 50,932.1 million as of end-October 2025, a marginal 0.1% decline from September's USD 51,000 million, reflecting amortization offsets to new disbursements. External debt dominated at USD 35,385.5 million (69.5% share), while domestic debt rose 1.8% to TZS 38,114.8 billion (equivalent to USD 15,546.6 million at October's average rate). No official November data is available as of December 13, 2025 (December BoT review pending), but preliminary estimates suggest stability, with external at ~USD 35,400 million (modest +0.04% from October disbursements) and domestic at TZS 38,500 billion (+1% from bond auctions), per market reports. Debt-to-GDP remains at 49.6%, below the 55% EAC threshold.
Economic Implications: The slight contraction signals prudent management amid 6% GDP growth, freeing fiscal space for social spending (21.5% of budget) and infrastructure (e.g., USD 3.5 billion hydropower adding 1.2% to growth). Rising domestic reliance (30.5% share) reduces FX exposure, stabilizing reserves and the shilling, but overall expansion (+15.8% YoY) heightens servicing costs (6.5% of budget), potentially crowding out private credit (16.1% YoY) by 1-2% if yields rise. IMF projects sustainability through 2026, but ties it to export buoyancy—gold/tourism inflows could lower debt service ratio to 12% of exports, enhancing buffers against shocks like climate events (1% GDP annual cost).
| Category | Amount | Notes |
| Total National Debt (Domestic + External) | USD 50,932.1 million | Slight decline (0.1%) from Sept 2025; ~49.6% of GDP. |
| External Debt | USD 35,385.5 million | 69.5% of total; concessional terms (average maturity 12.8 years). |
| Domestic Debt | TZS 38,114.8 billion | Increased 1.8% in Oct 2025; bonds 59.2% composition. |
Source: BoT Monthly Economic Review (November 2025); preliminary November estimates from TICGL and Trading Economics. Trends: Domestic surge from TZS 327.7 billion October auctions (55% bonds); external dip from USD 131 million amortizations.
Economic Implications: Balanced composition (69.5% external) leverages concessional multilateral funding (57.4%) for infra (28% allocation), boosting productivity and 2% GDP via multipliers, but USD-denominated share (66%) amplifies appreciation benefits—saving TZS 2-3 trillion in servicing annually. Domestic growth supports budget deficits (3.5% GDP) without FX strain, but institutional concentration (banks 35%) risks liquidity spillovers, per World Bank CPF 2025-29.
External debt, primarily concessional, funds growth priorities like energy and transport, with low interest (3.2% average) and long maturities aiding sustainability.
| Borrower | Value (USD Millions) | Share (%) |
| Central Government | 28,911.6 | 81.7 |
| Private Sector | 6,470.2 | 18.3 |
| Public Corporations | 3.8 | 0.0 |
| Total External Debt | 35,385.5 | 100 |
Source: BoT (Table 2.6.3). Details: Government focus: USD 443 million net disbursements in October for infra/social sectors.
| Creditor | Amount (USD Millions) | Share (%) |
| Multilateral | 20,315.8 | 57.4 |
| Commercial | 12,444.3 | 35.2 |
| Bilateral | 1,516.2 | 4.3 |
| Export Credit | 1,109.3 | 3.1 |
| Total | 35,385.5 | 100 |
Source: BoT . Trends: Multilateral dominance (e.g., IDA/World Bank) ensures low-cost funding; commercial rise from Eurobonds.
Economic Implications: Borrower skew to government (81.7%) channels resources to public goods (e.g., roads adding 0.8% GDP), while private sector growth (18.3%, +12% YoY) signals FDI maturity. Creditor mix (57.4% multilateral) minimizes costs (debt service USD 2.1 billion annually), supporting 4.7-month reserves, but commercial exposure (35.2%) ties to global rates—Fed easing could save 0.5% of budget, per Afreximbank. Overall, it fosters inclusive growth but risks if exports falter (service receipts cover 80% of debt service).
The shilling's appreciation directly alleviates external debt burdens, as 66% is USD-denominated, converting to fewer TZS for repayments.
| Indicator (Oct 2024 → Oct 2025) | Oct 2024 | Oct 2025 | Change | Interpretation |
| Exchange Rate (TZS/USD) | 2,693.1 | 2,451.6 | +9.0% appreciation | Stronger shilling reduces cost of debt servicing (TZS equivalent down ~9%). |
| External Debt Stock (USD Million) | 31,704.0 | 35,385.5 | +11.6% increase | Debt rose from disbursements, but FX strength offsets ~USD 3.2B in TZS terms. |
| Domestic Debt (TZS Billion) | 27,900.1* | 38,114.8 | +36.6% increase | Higher borrowing finances deficit; unaffected by FX. |
| Total Debt Stock (USD Million) | 43,966.0 | 50,932.1 | +15.8% increase | Rising despite stability; service ratio stable at 12% of exports. |
*Government securities proxy. Source: BoT; updated December rate TZS 2,463/USD implies continued relief.
Economic Implications: 9.5% appreciation saves TZS 3-4 trillion in external servicing (6.5% budget share), enabling reallocation to education/health (21.5% boost), per Deloitte 2025. Debt rise funds capex (47.2% execution), driving 6% growth, but without FX buffers, +11.6% external could add 1% to deficit—shilling firmness preserves 3% target, enhancing credibility for green bonds (USD 1B potential).
Stronger TZS lowers external servicing (USD 2.1 billion annually) by 9%, providing fiscal space.
Economic Implications: Reduces rollover risks (maturity 8.2 years), supporting M3 growth (21.5%) and private credit (16.1%), but ties sustainability to inflows—tourism/gold volatility could reverse gains, risking 0.5% GDP drag.
External +11.6% from multilateral/commercial; domestic +36.6% via bonds.
Economic Implications: Funds infra (28% allocation, +1.2% GDP), but elevates exposure—debt/GDP at 49.6% sustainable, yet IMF urges <45% for buffers, freeing TZS 2T for SMEs.
USD 6.17 billion (4.7 months cover) bolsters confidence.
Economic Implications: Mitigates shocks, enabling CBR at 5.75% for 3.5% inflation; supports AfCFTA (USD 1B trade uplift).
3-5% target and exports (+15.2%) anchor FX.
Economic Implications: Lowers yields (10.8% bonds), crowding-in FDI; export boom adds 2% GDP, but diversification needed.
| Aspect | Key Takeaway |
| Shilling Stability | Appreciated to TZS 2,460/USD avg. Oct; ~TZS 2,463 Dec 13—stronger than 2024 (+9.5% YoY). |
| External Debt | USD 35.4 billion, mostly multilateral (57.4%) & government (81.7%). |
| Domestic Debt | TZS 38.1 trillion; rising via bonds for budget. |
| Impact | Stronger shilling eases repayment (~TZS 3T savings) despite rising debt, aiding 6% growth & reserves. |
Overall Outlook: Shilling-debt interplay fortifies resilience, positioning Tanzania for 7% growth via infra/FDI, but monitoring Q4 volatility and diversification is crucial amid global uncertainties (World Bank 2025).