01 — OverviewExecutive Summary
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released Tanzania's National Consumer Price Index (NCPI) for August 2026 on 8 September 2026. The headline number: annual inflation rose to 4.3%, its highest point in the twelve months covered by this release, continuing a gradual climb from the 3.2% trough recorded in February and March 2026.
- Headline inflation reached 4.3% in August 2026, up from 4.2% in July 2026 and well above the 3.2%–3.6% range that held from December 2025 through March 2026.
- Core inflation — the more policy-relevant measure — rose to 4.1% from 3.9% in July, and has now been above 4% for five consecutive months (April–August 2026), suggesting the price pressure is not confined to volatile food and energy items.
- Food and non-alcoholic beverage inflation eased to 3.7% from 4.1% in July, even as several individual food items rose in price month-on-month — pointing to base-year effects rather than a food-price reversal.
- Transport remained the standout outlier, at 13.8% annual inflation — nearly triple the headline rate — while the Energy, Fuel and Utilities Index ran at 8.5%.
- The month-on-month change was modest: the all-items index rose 0.1% between July and August 2026, driven by a mix of food items (rice, live poultry, fresh fish, cooking oils) and non-food items (construction materials, firewood, charcoal, household cleaning products).
Methodological Note
2020 = 100The NCPI measures changes over time in the cost of a fixed basket of goods and services purchased by a representative sample of Tanzanian households.
- Weights: based on household monetary expenditure data from all 26 mainland regions (urban and rural), derived from the 2017/18 Household Budget Survey.
- Reference periods: base price reference period is the average of January–December 2020; the index reference period is the year 2020 (2020 = 100).
- Classification: follows the UN Classification of Individual Consumption by Purpose (COICOP), 2018 version, disseminated across 13 COICOP divisions, plus supplementary aggregations (Core, Non-Core, Energy/Fuel/Utilities, Services, Goods, Education, All Items Less Food).
- Index formula: elementary index aggregates use the geometric mean of price relatives; higher-level aggregates use the Lowe Index formula, a type of Laspeyres index.
02 — The Twelve-Month TrendCPI and Inflation Rate, August 2025 – August 2026
The chart below tracks the full year covered by this release. The index climbed steadily from 119.77 to 124.93, while the annual inflation rate traced a shallow U-shape — easing to a 3.2% floor in February–March 2026 before climbing in four of the next five months to the 4.3% August reading.
NCPI (2020=100) and Annual Inflation Rate, Aug 2025 – Aug 2026
Source: NBS, NCPI Press Release, Chart 1 (Movement of National Consumer Price Indices and Inflation Rates, Aug 2025–Aug 2026).
03 — Division by DivisionThe Full COICOP Breakdown
Table 1 below reproduces the NBS release in full: all 13 COICOP divisions plus the supplementary index aggregations, each with its basket weight, the index level a year ago, last month, and this month, and both the 1-month and 12-month percent changes.
| Main Groups | Weight | Aug-25 | Jul-26 | Aug-26 | 1-Mo % | 12-Mo % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Food & non-alcoholic beverages | 28.2 | 130.48 | 135.79 | 135.36 | -0.3 | 3.7 |
| 2. Alcoholic beverages & tobacco | 1.9 | 112.90 | 114.67 | 114.62 | 0.0 | 1.5 |
| 3. Clothing & footwear | 10.8 | 114.77 | 116.69 | 116.89 | 0.2 | 1.8 |
| 4. Housing, water, electricity, gas & other fuels | 15.1 | 118.10 | 120.73 | 121.08 | 0.3 | 2.5 |
| 5. Furnishings, household equipment & maintenance | 7.9 | 116.32 | 118.90 | 119.39 | 0.4 | 2.6 |
| 6. Health | 2.5 | 109.55 | 111.12 | 111.14 | 0.0 | 1.5 |
| 7. Transport | 14.1 | 119.69 | 136.11 | 136.18 | 0.1 | 13.8 |
| 8. Information & communication | 5.4 | 106.32 | 106.90 | 107.88 | 0.9 | 1.5 |
| 9. Recreation, sport & culture | 1.6 | 111.19 | 111.72 | 111.98 | 0.2 | 0.7 |
| 10. Education services | 2.0 | 111.99 | 115.29 | 115.55 | 0.2 | 3.2 |
| 11. Restaurants & accommodation services | 6.6 | 117.29 | 120.51 | 120.79 | 0.2 | 3.0 |
| 12. Insurance & financial services | 2.1 | 102.36 | 102.60 | 102.58 | 0.0 | 0.2 |
| 13. Personal care, social protection & misc. | 2.1 | 118.36 | 122.21 | 122.26 | 0.0 | 3.3 |
| TOTAL — ALL ITEMS INDEX | 100.0 | 119.77 | 124.85 | 124.93 | 0.1 | 4.3 |
| Group | Weight | Aug-25 | Jul-26 | Aug-26 | 1-Mo % | 12-Mo % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Core Index | 73.9 | 115.98 | 120.44 | 120.74 | 0.3 | 4.1 |
| Non-Core Index | 26.1 | 130.51 | 137.38 | 136.83 | -0.4 | 4.8 |
| Energy, Fuel & Utilities Index | 5.7 | 130.72 | 141.76 | 141.85 | 0.1 | 8.5 |
| Services Index | 37.2 | 112.69 | 119.16 | 119.34 | 0.2 | 5.9 |
| Goods Index | 62.8 | 123.96 | 128.22 | 128.24 | 0.0 | 3.5 |
| Education services & ancillary products | 4.1 | 114.32 | 116.24 | 116.42 | 0.2 | 1.8 |
| All Items Less Food & Non-Alcoholic Bev. | 71.8 | 115.56 | 120.56 | 120.84 | 0.2 | 4.6 |
Source: NBS, NCPI Press Release, Table 1, 08 September 2026.
Annual Inflation by COICOP Division — August 2026
Source: NBS, NCPI Press Release, Table 1.
Core, Energy, Goods & Services — Reading Beneath the Headline
Core > Headline in Aug-26The headline rate blends volatile and stable prices together. The supplementary aggregations NBS publishes alongside it separate the two, and in August 2026 they tell a consistent story: price pressure is broadening beyond food and energy, not narrowing.
- Core inflation (4.1%) is now within 0.2 points of headline inflation (4.3%) — in a typical low-inflation environment core usually sits meaningfully below headline, so this narrow gap signals the increase is not solely a food/energy story.
- The Energy, Fuel and Utilities Index (8.5%) is nearly double the headline rate, and together with Transport (13.8%) explains why the Non-Core Index (4.8%) is running above the Core Index despite food inflation easing.
- Services inflation (5.9%) is running well above Goods inflation (3.5%) — a services-led inflation profile, consistent with the acceleration in Information & Communication (0.9% month-on-month, the fastest of any division) and steady increases in Restaurants & Accommodation.
- All Items Less Food (4.6%) now exceeds the headline rate (4.3%), the clearest single indicator that food is currently a moderating factor for the headline number, not the driver.
Headline vs. Core vs. Non-Core vs. Goods vs. Services — 12-Month Inflation
Source: NBS, NCPI Press Release, Table 1 and Section 2.3.
04 — What Moved Prices This MonthJuly–August 2026 Drivers
Between July and August 2026, the all-items index rose 0.1%, from 124.85 to 124.93. NBS attributes the increase to a specific list of food and non-food items whose prices rose during the month, reproduced below.
🍚 Food items contributing to the increase
| Item | Change |
|---|---|
| Live poultry | +4.2% |
| Fresh groundnuts | +2.4% |
| Chicken egg | +2.2% |
| Fresh fish | +2.3% |
| Rice | +1.9% |
| Dried sardines | +1.4% |
| Cooking oils | +0.9% |
| Wheat flour | +0.7% |
| Cow meat / chicken meat | +0.6% |
| Industrial fruit juices | +0.8% |
| Sugar | +0.5% |
| Spaghetti | +0.5% |
| Sweet potatoes / soft drinks | +0.2% |
🏗️ Non-food items contributing to the increase
| Item | Change |
|---|---|
| Household cleaning products (e.g. laundry soap) | +2.3% |
| Maintenance materials (cement, iron sheets) | +1.9% |
| Charcoal | +1.7% |
| Clothing materials | +1.4% |
| Goods/services for personal care | +1.4% |
| Firewood | +1.3% |
| Household furniture | +0.4% |
| Gas for household consumption | +0.4% |
| Garments (men, women, children) | +0.2% |
| Recreation, sport & culture goods/services | +0.2% |
| Hotel/restaurant food & beverages | +0.2% |
| Footwear (men) | +0.1% |
Source: NBS, NCPI Press Release, Section 3 (Monthly Consumer Price Index Between July 2026 and August 2026).
Reading the Numbers: Three Things Worth Watching
TICGL/TERI Interpretation- Core inflation closing the gap with headline inflation is the number to watch, not the headline itself. A 4.3% headline with a 4.1% core reading is a materially different signal than a 4.3% headline driven mostly by food and fuel — it suggests broader-based price momentum across the 73.9%-weighted core basket, which is typically slower to reverse.
- Transport's 13.8% annual rate is doing a lot of work. At a 14.1% basket weight, Transport alone contributes close to two percentage points of the 4.3% headline figure — meaning fuel and transport-cost pass-through, not general demand, still explains a large share of Tanzania's current inflation story.
- Food inflation easing to 3.7% is a base-effect story so far, not yet a trend. Several individual food items — poultry, fish, eggs, rice — actually rose in the month itself; the year-on-year rate eased because the comparison period a year ago was itself elevated. This is worth re-checking in the September and October releases before reading it as durable disinflation.
05 — What's NextNCPI Release Schedule
| NCPI Release Month | Release Date |
|---|---|
| September 2026 | 08 October 2026 |
| October 2026 | 09 November 2026 |
| November 2026 | 08 December 2026 |
Source: NBS, NCPI Press Release, Table 2.
06 — Source & Data NotePrimary Source
National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), The United Republic of Tanzania. Press Release: National Consumer Price Index (NCPI) for August, 2026. Ref: AC 334/376/01/382. Dodoma, 08 September 2026. All index levels, weights, and percent changes on this page are reproduced directly from this release; all interpretive commentary is TICGL/TERI's own analysis.
- Weights basis: NBS 2017/18 Household Budget Survey (HBS).
- Classification standard: United Nations Classification of Individual Consumption by Purpose (COICOP), 2018 version.
- Index formulae: geometric mean of price relatives (elementary aggregates); Lowe Index, a type of Laspeyres index (higher-level aggregates).
07 — Quick AnswersFrequently Asked Questions
What is Tanzania's inflation rate for August 2026?
Tanzania's annual Headline Inflation Rate for August 2026 stood at 4.3%, up from 4.2% in July 2026. The overall NCPI rose from 119.77 in August 2025 to 124.93 in August 2026 (2020=100).
What is Tanzania's core inflation rate?
Tanzania's Core Inflation Rate rose to 4.1% in August 2026, up from 3.9% in July 2026. The Core Index excludes unprocessed food, energy, and utilities (except maize flour) and covers 297 items, representing 73.9% of the total NCPI weight.
Why did Tanzania's food inflation fall in August 2026?
The inflation rate for food and non-alcoholic beverages decreased to 3.7% in August 2026, from 4.1% in July 2026, even as several individual food items (including rice, live poultry, and fresh fish) rose in price month-on-month, because the year-on-year base and other basket items moderated the group average.
Which category had the highest inflation in Tanzania in August 2026?
Transport recorded the highest 12-month inflation rate among the 13 COICOP divisions, at 13.8% in August 2026, followed by the Energy, Fuel and Utilities Index at 8.5%. Insurance and financial services recorded the lowest annual inflation, at 0.2%.
What items pushed Tanzania's NCPI up between July and August 2026?
Food items contributing to the increase included rice, wheat flour, live poultry, fresh fish, chicken eggs, and cooking oils. Non-food contributors included clothing materials, cement and iron sheets, firewood and charcoal, and household cleaning products.
When will Tanzania's next NCPI release be published?
The National Bureau of Statistics is scheduled to release the September 2026 NCPI on 8 October 2026, the October 2026 NCPI on 9 November 2026, and the November 2026 NCPI on 8 December 2026.
Muhtasari kwa Kiswahili
Mfumuko wa Bei Tanzania Agosti 2026: Umepanda hadi Asilimia 4.3, Mfumuko wa Msingi (Core) Nao Waongezeka hadi Asilimia 4.1. — Ofisi ya Taifa ya Takwimu (NBS) imetoa Kielezo cha Bei za Bidhaa kwa Walaji (NCPI) cha Agosti 2026 tarehe 8 Septemba 2026. Kiwango cha mfumuko wa bei wa mwaka kimepanda hadi asilimia 4.3 kutoka asilimia 4.2 ya Julai 2026 — kiwango cha juu zaidi katika miezi 12 iliyopita.
Mfumuko wa Msingi (Core): Umeongezeka hadi asilimia 4.1 kutoka asilimia 3.9 ya Julai — ukiwa karibu sana na mfumuko wa jumla (4.3%), ishara kwamba shinikizo la bei si la vyakula na nishati pekee bali linaenea kwenye bidhaa na huduma nyingine pia.
Chakula na Usafiri: Mfumuko wa bei za vyakula umeshuka hadi asilimia 3.7 kutoka asilimia 4.1, ingawa bidhaa kadhaa za chakula (mchele, kuku hai, samaki wabichi, mayai) ziliongezeka bei mwezi mmoja hadi mwingine. Sekta ya Usafiri (Transport) imeendelea kuwa na mfumuko mkubwa zaidi — asilimia 13.8 kwa mwaka — karibu mara tatu ya wastani wa taifa.
Mabadiliko ya Mwezi hadi Mwezi: Kati ya Julai na Agosti 2026, kielezo cha jumla kiliongezeka kwa asilimia 0.1 tu (kutoka 124.85 hadi 124.93), kikichangiwa na bidhaa za chakula (mchele, unga wa ngano, kuku hai, samaki wabichi, mafuta ya kupikia) na bidhaa zisizo za chakula (vifaa vya ujenzi kama saruji na mabati, kuni, mkaa, na bidhaa za usafi wa nyumbani).
- Mfumuko wa Bei wa Jumla (Agosti 2026): asilimia 4.3
- Mfumuko wa Msingi (Core): asilimia 4.1
- Vyakula na Vinywaji visivyo na Kileo: asilimia 3.7
- Usafiri (Transport): asilimia 13.8 — sekta yenye mfumuko mkubwa zaidi
- Bima na Huduma za Kifedha: asilimia 0.2 — sekta yenye mfumuko mdogo zaidi
- Toleo lijalo la NCPI (Septemba 2026) litatolewa tarehe 8 Oktoba 2026
Chanzo: Ofisi ya Taifa ya Takwimu (NBS), Tangazo la Kielezo cha Bei za Bidhaa kwa Walaji (NCPI) — Agosti 2026, tarehe 8 Septemba 2026; uchambuzi wa TICGL/TERI.