National Consumer Price Index (NCPI) - Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages
Report Period: 2021-2025 (Historical) | 2026 (Forecast)
Base Year: 2020 = 100
Weight in Consumer Basket: 28.2%
Date Prepared: December 2025
Lead Analyst: Amran Bhuzohera
Tanzania’s food inflation landscape has undergone significant fluctuations over the past five years, shaped by global shocks, domestic supply constraints, and structural market inefficiencies. Between 2021 and 2025, food inflation averaged 5.2%, but the trend reveals pronounced volatility—rising from 3.7% in 2021 to a crisis peak of 7.3% in 2022, driven largely by fuel cost surges (energy inflation averaged 9.1% in 2022) and supply chain disruptions. Although 2024 marked a period of exceptional stability with food inflation dropping to 2.1%, households have since faced renewed pressure in 2025 as inflation accelerated sharply to an average of 6.0%. This rise reflects persistent cost-push factors, including elevated transport index levels that climbed from 103.34 (2021) to 121.50 (2025)—a cumulative increase of 17.6%, directly increasing food distribution expenses.
By November 2025, food inflation reached 6.6%, nearly double the national headline inflation of 3.4%, underscoring the disproportionate burden food prices impose on household purchasing power. Food prices have risen cumulatively by 31.5% since the 2020 base year, intensifying affordability challenges, particularly for low-income urban households and regions dependent on purchased food. Unprocessed and food crop categories—which are highly weather-sensitive—remain the most volatile, with swings as wide as 10.2 percentage points between June 2024 (-1.3%) and July 2025 (8.9%). This volatility reflects structural weaknesses such as low agricultural mechanization, post-harvest losses, long supply chains, and limited storage facilities.
Looking ahead, the 2026 forecast indicates continued upward pressure, with food inflation expected to average 7.1%, peaking at 8.5% in July, driven by seasonal supply shortages, lean-season stress, and higher input costs. Critical food categories such as food crops and unprocessed food are projected to hit peaks of 11.0% and 11.5%, respectively. With Tanzania’s population and urbanization steadily growing, combined with elevated energy and transport costs projected to rise to 6.5–8.0% in 2026, food price stability remains a central macroeconomic concern. Close monitoring and policy interventions—particularly in agricultural productivity, logistics, and market efficiency—will be essential to mitigate risks and sustain household welfare. Read More: Tanzania’s Inflation Path in 2025
1.1 Five-Year Trend Overview
| Year | Average Annual Inflation | Status | Year-on-Year Change |
| 2021 | 3.7% | Moderate/Baseline | - |
| 2022 | 7.3% | Very High | +3.6 pp |
| 2023 | 6.8% | High | -0.5 pp |
| 2024 | 2.1% | Low/Stable | -4.7 pp |
| 2025 (Jan-Nov) | ~6.0% | Rising | +3.9 pp |
Key Observation: The data reveals a cyclical pattern with a major spike in 2022, gradual decline through 2023-2024, and a sharp rebound in 2025.
1.2 Food Price Index Evolution
The table below shows how food prices have increased relative to the 2020 base year:
| Month | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
| January | 100.60 | 106.99 | 117.57 | 119.39 | 125.77 |
| March | 103.93 | 110.64 | 121.39 | 123.05 | 129.75 |
| June | 106.46 | 112.71 | 121.49 | 122.58 | 131.53 |
| September | 103.30 | 111.89 | 118.17 | 121.17 | 129.70 |
| December | 105.90 | 116.15 | 118.83 | 124.27 | - |
| Cumulative Increase | +5.9% | +16.2% | +18.8% | +24.3% | +31.5% (Nov) |
Analysis: Food prices have increased by 31.5% cumulatively since the 2020 base year, representing significant erosion of purchasing power for households.
1.3 Crisis Period Analysis - 2022
The year 2022 represented the peak of food inflation pressure:
| Category | Peak Inflation Rate | Month Recorded |
| Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages | 9.7% | December 2022 |
| Unprocessed Food | 12.7% | December 2022 |
| Food Crops & Related Items | 14.2% | December 2022 |
Impact: The 2022 crisis saw double-digit inflation in key food categories, severely impacting household budgets and food security.
1.4 Recovery Period - 2023-2024
2023 - Gradual Stabilization:
2024 - Exceptional Stability:
1.5 Current Situation - 2025
Monthly Inflation Rates - 2025:
| Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov |
| 5.3% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 6.6% |
Key Characteristics:
2.1 Food Categories Performance
| Category | 2022 Peak | 2023 Avg | 2024 Avg | 2025 (Nov) | Volatility |
| Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages | 9.7% | 6.8% | 2.1% | 6.6% | High |
| Food Crops & Related Items | 14.2% | 11.3% | -0.4% | 5.4% | Very High |
| Unprocessed Food | 12.7% | 9.5% | 0.3% | 7.0% | Very High |
| Processed Food (implied) | ~6-7% | ~5% | ~3% | ~6% | Moderate |
2.2 Most Volatile Components
Unprocessed Food - 2024-2025 Volatility:
| Period | Inflation Rate | Change |
| June 2024 | -1.3% | Price decreases |
| July 2025 | 8.9% | Sharp spike |
| Total Swing | 10.2 percentage points | Extreme volatility |
Food Crops Index - Monthly Pattern:
| Month | 2024 | 2025 | Difference |
| January | 0.7% | -1.5% | -2.2 pp |
| April | 0.8% | -0.9% | -1.7 pp |
| July | -0.9% | 3.5% | +4.4 pp |
| November | -4.0% | 5.4% | +9.4 pp |
Insight: Food crops show extreme seasonal and year-to-year variations, making them the primary driver of overall food inflation volatility.
2.3 Comparison with Overall Inflation
| Measure | Food Inflation | Overall (All Items) Inflation | Gap |
| November 2025 | 6.6% | 3.4% | +3.2 pp |
| 2025 Average | ~6.0% | ~3.3% | +2.7 pp |
Critical Finding: Food inflation is running at nearly DOUBLE the overall inflation rate, indicating specific supply-side pressures in the food sector.
3.1 Cost-Push Factors
Energy & Fuel Impact:
| Year/Period | Energy & Fuel Inflation | Impact on Food |
| 2022 | 9.1% annual average | High transport costs |
| 2023 | 2.3% annual average | Stabilizing |
| 2024 | 9.3% annual average | Rising pressure |
| 2025 (Nov) | 3.8% | Moderate pressure |
Transport Costs:
| Index Level | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 (Nov) |
| Transport Index | 103.34 | 109.63 | 112.72 | 117.42 | 121.50 |
| Year-on-Year Change | - | +6.1% | +2.8% | +4.2% | +3.5% |
Impact: Rising energy and transport costs directly increase food distribution expenses, passed on to consumers.
3.2 Supply-Side Challenges
Agricultural Production Instability:
Market Structure Issues:
3.3 Demand-Side Factors
| Factor | Impact Level | Description |
| Population Growth | Medium | Steady demand increase 2-3% annually |
| Urbanization | Medium | Shift to purchased food vs subsistence |
| Income Growth | Low-Medium | Changing consumption patterns |
| Dietary Changes | Low | Gradual shift to processed foods |
4.1 Current Critical Issues
| Problem | Evidence | Severity | Trend |
| Persistent High Inflation | 6+ consecutive months above 6.5% in 2025 | HIGH | Worsening |
| Extreme Volatility | Unprocessed food: -1.3% to +8.9% swing | HIGH | Stable |
| Energy Cost Pressure | Fuel inflation 3.5-7.9% range | MEDIUM | Fluctuating |
| Food-Overall Gap | Food 6.6% vs Overall 3.4% | MEDIUM-HIGH | Widening |
| Seasonal Vulnerability | Consistent Jun-Aug peaks | MEDIUM | Predictable |
5.1 Base Case Monthly Forecast - 2026
Detailed Monthly Projections:
| Month | Forecast | Range | Key Drivers | Risk Level |
| January | 6.8% | 6.5-7.0% | Post-holiday demand, carryover from 2025 | Medium |
| February | 6.2% | 5.8-6.5% | Pre-harvest tightening, seasonal low | Medium |
| March | 6.5% | 6.2-6.8% | Supply anticipation, input cost increases | Medium |
| April | 7.0% | 6.7-7.3% | Lean season begins, stocks depleting | Medium-High |
| May | 7.5% | 7.2-7.8% | Peak lean season, pre-harvest price spikes | Medium-High |
| June | 8.0% | 7.5-8.5% | Supply tightening, early harvest delays | High |
| July | 8.5% | 8.0-9.0% | ANNUAL PEAK - typical seasonal high | High |
| August | 8.0% | 7.5-8.5% | New harvest begins, gradual easing | High |
| September | 7.2% | 6.8-7.5% | Harvest supplies increase, prices moderate | Medium-High |
| October | 6.8% | 6.5-7.2% | Post-harvest stabilization | Medium |
| November | 6.5% | 6.2-6.8% | Abundant supply, festival demand | Medium |
| December | 6.8% | 6.5-7.2% | Year-end demand, holiday effects | Medium |
Quarterly Summary:
| Quarter | Average | Peak | Status |
| Q1 2026 | 6.5% | 6.8% (Jan) | Moderate start |
| Q2 2026 | 7.5% | 8.0% (Jun) | Rising pressure |
| Q3 2026 | 7.9% | 8.5% (Jul) | CRITICAL PERIOD |
| Q4 2026 | 6.7% | 6.8% (Oct/Dec) | Stabilizing |
| ANNUAL | 7.1% | 8.5% (Jul) | Moderate-High |
5.2 Category-Specific Forecasts
Food Categories - 2026 Projections:
| Category | Annual Avg | Peak Month | Volatility | Key Factors |
| Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages | 7.1% | 8.5% (Jul) | High | Overall basket driver |
| Food Crops | 8.5% | 11.0% (Jul) | Very High | Weather dependency |
| Unprocessed Food | 9.0% | 11.5% (Jul-Aug) | Very High | Seasonal production |
| Processed Food | 5.5% | 6.5% (Jun) | Moderate | Input cost driven |
| Restaurants/Accommodation | 4.5% | 5.0% (Dec) | Low | Service component |
Other Influential Categories:
| Category | 2026 Forecast | Impact on Food |
| Energy & Fuel | 6.5-8.0% | High - transport costs |
| Transport | 4.0-5.0% | High - distribution |
| Housing/Utilities | 4.5-5.5% | Medium - overhead costs |