Tanzania Investment and Consultant Group Ltd

| Economic Research Centre

Tanzania Economic Outlook Exchange Rate Stability and Growth Forecasts
April 27, 2024  
USD-TZS Exchange Rate Movement: Historical Data: Forecast: The USDTZS exchange rate increased slightly on April 26, 2024, indicating a small strengthening of the Tanzania Shilling against the US Dollar. However, historically, the Shilling has experienced higher volatility, reaching its all-time high in September 2020. Forecast models suggest the Shilling may appreciate further in the near […]

USD-TZS Exchange Rate Movement:

  • On Friday, April 26, the USDTZS exchange rate increased by 10.0000 or 0.39% to 2,590.0000 from its previous rate of 2,580.0000.
  • This indicates a slight strengthening of the Tanzania Shilling against the US Dollar compared to the previous trading session.

Historical Data:

  • The Tanzania Shilling reached an all-time high of 3700.00 in September of 2020.
  • This indicates the weakest point of the Tanzania Shilling against the US Dollar in recent history.

Forecast:

  • According to TICGL macro models and analysts' expectations, the Tanzania Shilling is expected to trade at 2581.50 by the end of the current quarter.
  • Looking forward, it is estimated to trade at 2647.04 in 12 months' time.
  • These forecasts are based on various economic factors and market analysis.

The USDTZS exchange rate increased slightly on April 26, 2024, indicating a small strengthening of the Tanzania Shilling against the US Dollar. However, historically, the Shilling has experienced higher volatility, reaching its all-time high in September 2020. Forecast models suggest the Shilling may appreciate further in the near term and over the next 12 months.

The effects of exchange rate on Tanzania's economic growth:

  1. Exchange Rate Stability: The slight increase in the USDTZS exchange rate on April 26, 2024, indicates relative stability in the Tanzania currency against the US Dollar. This stability is often indicative of a steady or improving economic environment.
  2. Historical Exchange Rate Volatility: The historical data showing the Tanzania Shilling reaching an all-time high of 3700.00 in September 2020 highlights past volatility in the currency. Such volatility can have implications for economic growth, affecting investor confidence and import/export dynamics.
  3. Forecasted Exchange Rate: The forecasted exchange rate for the Tanzania Shilling indicates a projected strengthening against the US Dollar. A stronger currency can reflect positive economic growth prospects, including increased investor confidence and stable macroeconomic conditions.
  4. Quarterly and Yearly Forecasts: Both short-term (end of the current quarter) and longer-term (12 months' time) forecasts suggest a positive trajectory for the Tanzania Shilling, with expected appreciation against the US Dollar. This can be interpreted as a positive outlook for Tanzania's economic growth over both short and medium terms.

Tanzania's economic growth, the exchange rate stability, historical volatility, and forecasted appreciation of the Tanzania Shilling against the US Dollar indicate a generally positive outlook. It shows improving economic conditions, potentially leading to increased investor confidence, stability in trade, and overall growth prospects for the Tanzania economy.

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