Tanzania’s external sector is a critical driver of economic growth, with exports contributing to foreign exchange earnings and imports supporting infrastructure and industrial development. The trade balance reflects a persistent deficit due to higher import demand, though export growth, particularly in minerals and tourism, has narrowed the gap. The current account deficit improved by 26% to TZS 5.71 trillion (USD 2,117.5 million) in the year ending May 2025, driven by strong export performance.
Total Trade (Year Ending May 2025):
Exports of Goods and Services: TZS 45.83 trillion (USD 16,994.7 million), up 19.2% from USD 14,258.2 million in May 2024.
Imports of Goods and Services: TZS 47.72 trillion (USD 17,686 million), up 9.6% from USD 16,141.9 million in May 2024.
Trade Deficit: TZS 1.89 trillion (USD 701.3 million), narrowed from USD 1,009 million in Q3 2024, reflecting export-driven improvements.
Economic Drivers: Export growth is fueled by gold, agriculture, and tourism, supported by the Third Five-Year Development Plan (FYDP III, 2021/22–2025/26) and AfCFTA participation. Imports are driven by capital-intensive projects (e.g., Standard Gauge Railway, Julius Nyerere Hydropower Plant) and consumer demand. The Tanzanian shilling’s 3.82% depreciation (TZS 2,698.42/USD) boosts export competitiveness but raises import costs.
2. Exports of Goods and Services
Overview: Tanzania’s exports include goods (minerals, agricultural products, manufactured goods) and services (tourism, transport). Gold and tourism dominate, accounting for 36.8% and 23.2% of total exports, respectively, in 2024. Agricultural exports benefit from global demand, while services leverage Tanzania’s natural attractions and logistics improvements.
Export Composition (Year Ending May 2025):
Goods Exports: TZS 26.67 trillion (USD 9,894.9 million), up from USD 7,758.7 million (+27.5%) in May 2024.
Gold: TZS 10.34 trillion (USD 3,835.5 million), 36.8% of goods exports, up 23.1% due to high global prices (USD 3,326/oz) and production increases (1.9 million oz, web:18). Beneficiation policies (e.g., local refining) and BoT gold purchases (976.51 kg) enhance earnings.
Cashew Nuts: TZS 1.05 trillion (USD 389.9 million, estimated based on 141% growth), driven by global demand and competitive pricing.
Coffee: TZS 0.80 trillion (USD 296.8 million, estimated based on 66.3% growth, supported by improved trade policies.
Tobacco: TZS 0.86 trillion (USD 318.8 million, 4.7% of goods exports, web:22), up 32% due to higher productivity.
Cloves (Mainly Zanzibar): TZS 0.15 trillion (USD 55.5 million, provided data), down 10.2% due to production and price declines.
Horticulture (Vegetables, Fruits, Seeds): TZS 0.84 trillion (USD 312 million, 4.3%), supported by the Horticulture Exports Accelerator Program.
Other (Gemstones, Textiles, Fish): TZS 2.63 trillion (USD 976.3 million, estimated), with fish and marine products up 4.3% (USD 4.1 million, provided data) and textiles benefiting from cotton exports to South Asia.
Services Exports: TZS 19.16 trillion (USD 7,099.8 million), up 9.2% from USD 6,499.4 million.
Travel (Tourism): TZS 10.55 trillion (USD 3,910 million, estimated, 55.1% of services), up 10% due to 2,170,360 tourist arrivals (+10.6% from 1,961,870, provided data). Key attractions include Mount Kilimanjaro, Serengeti, and Zanzibar beaches.
Transport Services: TZS 3.83 trillion (USD 1,420 million, ~20%, provided data), up due to improved port and railway infrastructure (e.g., Dar es Salaam port, SGR.
Other Services (Construction, Insurance, ICT, Royalties): TZS 4.78 trillion (USD 1,769.8 million, ~25%, provided data), driven by ICT (453.7 million TIPS transactions, web:6) and construction projects.
Key Destinations:
India: 21.4% (~TZS 9.81 trillion), mainly gold and cashew nuts.
South Africa: 15.4% (~TZS 7.06 trillion), gold and agricultural products.
UAE: 9.4% (~TZS 4.31 trillion), minerals and textiles.
Switzerland: 6.4% (~TZS 2.93 trillion), gold.
China: 5.9% (~TZS 2.70 trillion), agricultural and manufactured goods.
DR Congo: 4.3% (~TZS 1.97 trillion), agricultural products.
Trends and Drivers:
Gold Dominance: Gold’s 36.8% share reflects high global prices and mining reforms. The Epanko Graphite Project signals mineral diversification.
Tourism Growth: Tourism receipts (TZS 10.55 trillion) are driven by 2,662,219 arrivals in 2024 (+20%, web:6) and infrastructure (e.g., Mikumi SGR gate). The sector contributes 19.5% to GDP in 2025/26.
Agricultural Surge: Cashew nuts (+141%), coffee (+66.3%), and tobacco (+32%) benefit from AfCFTA and trade missions (web:15). Zanzibar’s clove exports (TZS 0.15 trillion) face challenges from market downturns.
Services Expansion: Transport earnings (TZS 3.83 trillion) reflect regional logistics improvements (24% intra-African trade rise to USD 5.18 billion, web:6), while ICT and construction grow with infrastructure investments.
Implications:
Strengths: Export growth (19.2%) narrows the current account deficit (TZS 5.71 trillion), supported by reserves (TZS 13.86 trillion, USD 5,136.6 million). Tourism and gold ensure robust foreign exchange inflows.
Challenges: Overreliance on gold (36.8%) and tourism (23.2%) risks exposure to global price and demand fluctuations (web:17). Clove exports’ decline (TZS 0.15 trillion, -10.2%) highlights agricultural vulnerabilities.
Outlook: Continued export growth (projected +15% in 2025, web:18) depends on diversification (e.g., horticulture) and infrastructure (e.g., SGR). AfCFTA and trade agreements (e.g., Tanzania-UAE, web:24) will boost market access.
3. Imports of Goods and Services
Overview: Tanzania’s imports support its capital-intensive growth model, with capital goods and industrial inputs dominating. The 9.6% import growth reflects infrastructure demand and consumer needs, particularly in tourism and manufacturing.
Import Composition (Year Ending May 2025):
Goods Imports: TZS 26.67 trillion (USD 9,894.8 million, estimated based on national import share), up from USD 9,693.4 million in May 2024.
Petroleum Oils: TZS 6.95 trillion (USD 2,578.5 million, 19.9% of goods imports, web:22), down 7% due to global price effects and domestic energy investments (e.g., Julius Nyerere Hydropower Plant).
Machinery and Mechanical Appliances: TZS 4.94 trillion (USD 1,830 million, 12.1%), for infrastructure (e.g., SGR, hydropower).
Vehicles and Transport Equipment: TZS 4.34 trillion (USD 1,610 million, 10.7%), supporting logistics and construction.
Electrical Machinery and Equipment: TZS 2.58 trillion (USD 955 million, 6.32%), for industrial and ICT applications.
Saudi Arabia: 6.1% (~TZS 2.91 trillion), petroleum products.
Japan: 4.3% (~TZS 2.05 trillion), vehicles and machinery.
Trends and Drivers:
Capital-Intensive Growth: Imports of machinery (TZS 4.94 trillion) and vehicles (TZS 4.34 trillion) support infrastructure projects (e.g., SGR, TZS 7.72 trillion budget allocation) and manufacturing (9% GDP).
Petroleum Decline: Petroleum imports (TZS 6.95 trillion, -7%) reflect hydropower advancements (235 MW from Julius Nyerere dam, web:17) and plans for LNG and oil pipelines by 2026.
Freight Costs: The 27.0% rise in services imports (TZS 7.67 trillion) is driven by freight (47.7%), linked to port congestion and global shipping costs. The Tanzania Shipping Agency Corporation’s monopoly may elevate costs.
Economic Support: Imports fuel 6% GDP growth, with capital goods (TZS 4.94 trillion) and vehicles (TZS 4.34 trillion) enabling infrastructure and trade (24% intra-African trade rise).
Trade Deficit: The TZS 1.89 trillion deficit reflects import reliance, exacerbated by TZS depreciation (3.82%), increasing costs by ~TZS 0.73 trillion for USD-denominated imports.
Outlook: Reducing petroleum imports (via LNG, hydropower) and boosting local manufacturing can narrow the deficit. AfCFTA’s tariff reductions (90% of products) will lower import costs but require infrastructure upgrades.
4. Policy Recommendations
To enhance Tanzania’s trade performance, the following actions are recommended based on the analysis:
Diversify Exports:
Action: Invest in horticulture (TZS 0.84 trillion exports) and manufacturing (e.g., textiles, TZS 0.10 trillion, web:17) via the Horticulture Exports Accelerator Program and SEZ incentives. Support clove production in Zanzibar (TZS 0.15 trillion, -10.2%) with irrigation and market access.
Impact: Reduces reliance on gold (TZS 10.34 trillion, 36.8%) and tourism (TZS 10.55 trillion, 23.2%), mitigating global price risks.
Example: The AfCFTA Guided Trade Initiative can boost agricultural exports to DR Congo (TZS 1.97 trillion).
Reduce Import Dependence:
Action: Accelerate domestic energy production (e.g., LNG, Julius Nyerere dam) to cut petroleum imports (TZS 6.95 trillion, 19.9%). Promote import substitution in manufacturing (e.g., wheat processing, TZS 0.84 trillion, web:22) via MKUMBI II reforms.
Impact: Narrows the trade deficit (TZS 1.89 trillion) and mitigates TZS depreciation effects.
Example: The 2025/26 budget’s VAT exemptions for farmers can boost local food production.
Enhance Logistics Infrastructure:
Action: Upgrade Dar es Salaam port and railways (e.g., SGR, Mikumi gate, web:6) to reduce freight costs (TZS 3.66 trillion, 47.7% of services imports). Address port congestion via private investment.
Impact: Lowers import costs and boosts transport earnings (TZS 3.83 trillion, web:6). Supports intra-African trade (TZS 13.98 trillion).
Example: The Tanzania Shippers Council’s collaboration to reduce logistics costs aligns with AfCFTA goals.
Strengthen Tourism and Services:
Action: Expand tourism marketing to Asia and Americas (71.6% of Zanzibar arrivals from Europe) and invest in ICT (TZS 4.78 trillion in other services). The 2025/26 tourism budget (TZS 0.36 trillion) can fund new attractions.
Example: World Travel Awards 2025 recognition can attract more visitors.
Improve Trade Facilitation:
Action: Streamline TANCIS documentation and reduce non-tariff barriers (e.g., port delays). Leverage AfCFTA to eliminate tariffs on 90% of products.
Impact: Enhances export competitiveness and reduces import costs, supporting the trade balance.
Example: The Dar es Salaam International Trade Fair (June–July 2025) can promote local products.
5. Economic Implications
Export Strengths: Gold (TZS 10.34 trillion) and tourism (TZS 10.55 trillion) drive foreign exchange inflows, supporting reserves (TZS 13.86 trillion) and GDP growth (6%). Agricultural exports (TZS 3.60 trillion combined for cashew, coffee, tobacco, horticulture) leverage AfCFTA markets.
Import Challenges: High capital goods (TZS 4.94 trillion) and freight costs (TZS 3.66 trillion) widen the trade deficit (TZS 1.89 trillion), with TZS depreciation (3.82%) adding ~TZS 0.73 trillion to USD-denominated costs.
Sustainability: The current account deficit (TZS 5.71 trillion) is manageable with reserves covering 4.2 months. However, import reliance risks external vulnerabilities, requiring diversification and domestic production.
Outlook: Exports are projected to grow 15% in 2025 (web:18), driven by minerals, agriculture, and tourism. Reducing petroleum imports (via LNG, web:17) and enhancing logistics can further narrow the deficit, supporting Vision 2050’s USD 1 trillion GDP goal.
Tanzania Exports and Imports - May 2025: Key Figures
Category
Value (TZS Trillion)
Share (%)
Change YoY (%)
Details
Total Exports
45.83
100.0
+19.2
USD 16,994.7M
Goods Exports
26.67
58.2
+27.5
USD 9,894.9M
• Gold
10.34
22.5
+23.1
High global prices
• Cashew Nuts
1.05
2.3
+141.0
Global demand
• Coffee
0.80
1.7
+66.3
Trade policies
• Tobacco
0.86
1.9
+32.0
Productivity gains
• Cloves (Zanzibar)
0.15
0.3
-10.2
Price/production decline
• Horticulture
0.84
1.8
—
Vegetables, fruits
• Other (Gemstones, Textiles, Fish)
2.63
5.7
—
Fish +4.3%
Services Exports
19.16
41.8
+9.2
USD 7,099.8M
• Travel (Tourism)
10.55
23.0
+10.0
2,170,360 arrivals
• Transport Services
3.83
8.4
—
Port, railway upgrades
• Other Services (ICT, Construction)
4.78
10.4
—
ICT, financial services
Total Imports
47.72
100.0
+9.6
USD 17,686M
Goods Imports
26.67
55.9
—
USD 9,894.8M (est.)
• Petroleum Oils
6.95
14.6
-7.0
Hydropower gains
• Machinery & Mechanical Appliances
4.94
10.3
—
Infrastructure projects
• Vehicles & Transport Equipment
4.34
9.1
—
Logistics, construction
• Electrical Machinery
2.58
5.4
—
Industrial, ICT use
• Wheat & Meslin
0.84
1.8
—
Food security gap
• Other (Chemicals, Plastics)
6.96
14.6
—
Consumer goods
Services Imports
7.67
16.1
+27.0
USD 2,841.7M
• Freight (Transport)
3.66
7.7
—
47.7% of services
• Other Services (Construction, ICT)
4.01
8.4
—
Infrastructure, financial
Trade Deficit
1.89
—
—
USD 701.3M
Note: USD conversion based on TZS 2,698.42/USD (May 2025).
Tanzania’s external sector showed robust improvement in April 2025, with the current account deficit narrowing by 18.6% to USD 2,224.9 million from USD 2,733.4 million in April 2024, driven by a 7.3% increase in services receipts to USD 6,940.8 million, led by tourism (USD 3,842.6 million, 56.0%) due to 2,162,487 arrivals. Services payments rose 22.8% to USD 2,842.6 million, primarily for transport (USD 1,444.2 million, 53.3%), reflecting higher freight costs. Supported by USD 5.3 billion in reserves, this performance underscores Tanzania’s growing role as a tourism and trade hub. The following table summarizes these key figures.
1. Current Account Performance
The current account balance reflects the net flow of goods, services, primary income (e.g., investment income), and secondary income (e.g., remittances). A narrowing deficit indicates improved external sector performance, driven by export growth outpacing imports.
Key Figures:
Current Account Deficit (Year ending April 2025): USD -2,224.9 million
Current Account Deficit (Year ending April 2024): USD -2,733.4 million
Improvement: Deficit narrowed by USD 508.5 million, or 18.6% year-on-year.
Reason for Improvement: Higher export earnings outpacing growth in imports.
Analysis:
Deficit Reduction: The 18.6% improvement in the current account deficit (from USD -2,733.4 million to USD -2,224.9 million) reflects robust export performance, particularly in services, and a relatively moderate increase in imports. TICGL confirm this trend, noting a 31.1% deficit reduction to USD 2,021.5 million in the year ending January 2025, driven by strong export earnings from gold, agriculture, and tourism. The Monthey Economic Review highlights stable foreign exchange reserves of USD 5.3 billion (4.3 months of import cover, previous responses), supporting external balance stability.
Export-Driven Growth: The narrowing deficit aligns with a 15.1% increase in total exports of goods and services to USD 16,093.1 million in the year ending January 2025, with services exports (e.g., tourism) playing a significant role. Gold exports (USD 3,369.7 million, 36.8% of goods exports) and tourism receipts (USD 3,842.6 million, see below) were key drivers.
Import Dynamics: Imports of goods and services grew moderately to USD 17,511.8 million in the year ending February 2025 from USD 16,040.6 million in 2024, driven by industrial transport equipment and freight payments, but tempered by lower imports of petroleum, machinery, and wheat. The Monthey Economic Review notes a 3.9% annual TZS depreciation to TZS 2,684.41/USD (previous responses), which may have increased import costs but was offset by export growth.
Macro Context: The deficit reduction supports Tanzania’s macroeconomic stability, with inflation at 3.2% in February 2025 and GDP growth projected at 6% in 2025. The IMF’s Extended Credit Facility (ECF, USD 1,046.4 million) and foreign exchange interventions (USD 6.25 million sold in April 2025, previous responses) further bolster external balances.
Insights:
The 18.6% deficit reduction reflects a strong recovery in services exports, particularly tourism, which grew due to a 11.5% increase in tourist arrivals (2,162,487 in April 2025 vs. 1,938,875 in April 2024). This aligns with TICGL reporting 2,106,870 arrivals in the year ending November 2024.
The moderate import growth (see below) suggests effective management of import bills, particularly for petroleum, amid favorable global commodity prices.
The deficit, at approximately 2.8% of GDP (based on 2024 GDP of USD 79.2 billion), is sustainable, below the 4.2% projected for 2025, supported by reserves and IMF financing.
2. Exports – Services Receipts by Category
Services receipts are a critical component of Tanzania’s export earnings, driven by tourism and transport, reflecting the country’s role as a regional tourism hub and trade gateway.
Key Figures:
Total Services Receipts (Year ending April 2025): USD 6,940.8 million
Total Services Receipts (Year ending April 2024): USD 6,466.0 million
Growth: +7.3% (USD +474.8 million)
Breakdown by Category:
Service Category
Receipts (USD Million)
Share (%)
Travel (Tourism)
3,842.6
56.0%
Transport Services
2,444.6
35.2%
Other Services
653.6
8.8%
Total
6,940.8
100%
Analysis:
Travel (Tourism, 56.0%, USD 3,842.6 million): Tourism is the largest contributor to services receipts, driven by a 11.5% increase in international arrivals (2,162,487 in April 2025 vs. 1,938,875 in April 2024). TICGL confirm this trend, with arrivals reaching 2,106,870 in the year ending November 2024, boosting travel receipts to USD 3,680 million. The Monthey Economic Review notes tourism’s role as a top foreign exchange earner, supported by Tanzania’s rich wildlife and Vision 2025’s focus on tourism. The sector contributes ~10% to GDP and is projected to reach 19.5% by 2025/26.
Transport Services (35.2%, USD 2,444.6 million): Receipts from freight and passenger movement grew by 6.5% from ~USD 2,296.0 million in 2024, reflecting Tanzania’s role as a trade hub via Dar es Salaam port, serving six landlocked neighbors. TICGL report transport earnings at USD 2,720 million in November 2024, driven by improved infrastructure (e.g., TAZARA Railway upgrades). The Monthey Economic Review highlights increased trade with neighboring countries (previous responses).
Other Services (8.8%, USD 653.6 million): This category, including construction, insurance, financial, ICT, government, IP rights, and professional services, grew modestly. Web TICGL note steady growth in ICT and financial services, aligning with the Monthey Economic Review’s emphasis on financial sector digitalization (e.g., mobile money transactions up 26.73%).
Growth Context: The 7.3% increase in services receipts aligns with a 14% rise in services exports to USD 6,980 million in November 2024, driven by global tourism recovery and regional trade. The African Continental Free Trade Agreement (ratified 2022) and agreements with Angola and the UAE bolster export growth.
Insights:
Tourism’s 56.0% share underscores its critical role in foreign exchange earnings, supported by a record 2,162,487 arrivals, approaching pre-pandemic levels (1,527,230 in 2019). Investments in tourism infrastructure (e.g., World Bank’s REGROW Project) drive this growth.
Transport services benefit from Tanzania’s strategic port and railway upgrades (e.g., USD 1.4 billion for TAZARA), enhancing regional trade with landlocked neighbors.
The modest growth in “Other Services” reflects emerging sectors like ICT, supported by digital payment growth (84% of SMEs adopted digital payments).
3. Imports – Services Payments by Category
Services payments represent expenditures on foreign services, primarily driven by transport costs linked to goods imports, reflecting Tanzania’s import-dependent economy.
Key Figures:
Total Services Payments (Year ending April 2025): USD 2,842.6 million
Total Services Payments (Year ending April 2024): USD 2,314.6 million
Growth: +22.8% (USD +528.0 million)
Breakdown by Category:
Service Category
Payments (USD Million)
Share (%)
Transport Services
1,444.2
53.3%
Travel
540.6
19.0%
Other Services
857.8
27.7%
Total
2,842.6
100%
Analysis:
Transport Services (53.3%, USD 1,444.2 million): The largest category, transport payments grew by 13.2% from ~USD 1,276.2 million in 2024, driven by freight costs linked to goods imports (USD 1,377.9 million in February 2025). TICGL note a 15.8% increase in services payments to USD 2,605.7 million in February 2025, with freight accounting for 53.3%. The Monthey Economic Review attributes this to increased imports of industrial transport equipment (previous responses), reflecting manufacturing and construction activity (GDP contributions of 9% and 16%).
Travel (19.0%, USD 540.6 million): Payments for Tanzanians traveling abroad for tourism, business, or education grew moderately. TICGL indicate stable travel payments, with services payments rising to USD 2,533.8 million in January 2025, driven by business travel and education abroad. The Monthey Economic Review notes foreign exchange pressures from import payments (previous responses), including travel.
Other Services (27.7%, USD 857.8 million): This category, including telecom, insurance, royalties, business services, and construction, remained stable (~0% growth). TICGL highlight increased payments for telecom and business services, but overall moderation due to lower global commodity prices. The Monthey Economic Review supports this with stable non-tax revenue (TZS 347.8 billion), indicating controlled service imports.
Growth Context: The 22.8% increase in services payments outpaced services receipts (7.3%), contributing to the current account deficit. TICGL note a moderate rise in total imports to USD 17,511.8 million in February 2025, driven by industrial supplies but offset by lower petroleum imports.
Insights:
Transport payments’ dominance (53.3%) reflects Tanzania’s reliance on imported goods, with freight costs tied to Dar es Salaam port’s role as a regional hub. The 13.2% growth aligns with increased construction and manufacturing.
Stable “Other Services” payments suggest cost management in non-essential services, supported by favorable global prices and BoT’s exchange rate interventions.
Travel payments (19.0%) indicate growing outbound activity, but their smaller share compared to tourism receipts (USD 3,842.6 million) highlights a net positive services balance.
Conclusion
Tanzania’s external sector performance in April 2025 showed significant improvement, with the current account deficit narrowing by 18.6% to USD 2,224.9 million from USD 2,733.4 million, driven by a 7.3% rise in services receipts to USD 6,940.8 million, led by tourism (USD 3,842.6 million, 56.0%) and transport (USD 2,444.6 million, 35.2%). Services payments grew faster at 22.8% to USD 2,842.6 million, primarily due to transport costs (USD 1,444.2 million, 53.3%), reflecting increased goods imports. The tourism sector, bolstered by 2,162,487 arrivals, and regional trade via improved infrastructure (e.g., TAZARA upgrades) were key drivers, supported by reserves of USD 5.3 billion and IMF financing.
The following table summarizes these key figures.
Category
Metric
Value (April 2025)
Value (April 2024)
Change
Current Account Performance
Current Account Balance
USD -2,224.9 million
USD -2,733.4 million
↑ +18.6% (USD +508.5 million)
Exports – Services Receipts
Total Services Receipts
USD 6,940.8 million
USD 6,466.0 million
↑ +7.3% (USD +474.8 million)
– Travel (Tourism)
USD 3,842.6 million (56.0%)
~USD 3,589.9 million
↑ +7.1%
– Transport Services
USD 2,444.6 million (35.2%)
~USD 2,296.0 million
↑ +6.5%
– Other Services
USD 653.6 million (8.8%)
~USD 580.1 million
↑ +12.7%
Imports – Services Payments
Total Services Payments
USD 2,842.6 million
USD 2,314.6 million
↑ +22.8% (USD +528.0 million)
– Transport Services
USD 1,444.2 million (53.3%)
~USD 1,276.2 million
↑ +13.2%
– Travel
USD 540.6 million (19.0%)
~USD 180.6 million
↑ +199.3%
– Other Services
USD 857.8 million (27.7%)
~USD 857.8 million
≈ 0%
The introduction of new US reciprocal tariffs in 2025, often referred to as Trump tariffs, is reshaping global trade patterns, creating mixed impacts for Africa and Tanzania. According to the WTO Global Trade Outlook and Statistics 2025, Africa’s merchandise exports are expected to grow by +0.6% in 2025, slightly higher than previous forecasts, as US buyers seek new suppliers outside China. Least-developed countries, including Tanzania, are projected to benefit from this trade diversion, with export growth for LDCs rising to +4.8%. However, Africa’s services exports, which include key sectors like transport and tourism, are expected to contract by -1.6%, reversing earlier positive expectations. For Tanzania, opportunities lie in expanding agricultural, textile, and gold exports, but risks remain in its tourism and logistics sectors. Despite these challenges, Africa's overall GDP impact is minimal, with projected growth hovering around 0.0% change, reflecting resilience but also vulnerability to further global trade uncertainties.
Africa - Overall Trade Outlook 2025
Africa’s Merchandise Exports (2025 forecast):
Growth: +0.6% (adjusted, after tariffs and uncertainty).
2024 growth was +1.3%.
Africa’s Merchandise Imports:
2025 forecast: +6.5% growth.
Strong import recovery after a slow 2024 (+1.8%).
Africa’s Services Exports:
2025 baseline forecast was +1.8%.
Adjusted forecast: -1.6% decline (due to global uncertainty).
Impact on Africa’s GDP:
2025 GDP growth is forecast to slow by -0.04% to flat 0.0% growth.
This indicates a mild but noticeable slowdown.
Tanzania Specific Points
Tanzania is not individually highlighted among Africa's top 10 traders in the WTO report.
However, based on the region-wide Africa performance and Tanzania's recent growth patterns:
Tanzania’s exports (goods and services) are likely to grow modestly, mainly due to opportunities in agriculture, gold, tourism, and digitally delivered services.
Risks:
Weaker demand from Europe and China.
Rising competition from other LDCs benefiting from US-China trade diversions.
Key Opportunity for Tanzania: New US demand for textiles, agricultural products, and electronics substitutes from African countries could support +4% to +5% export growth if leveraged well.
Top 10 African Countries (Trade Outlook 2025)
Rank
Country
Key Outlook 2025
Notes
1
South Africa
Moderate growth in minerals and vehicles.
But global demand uncertainty remains.
2
Nigeria
Oil exports to remain strong.
Services weak (-1.6%).
3
Egypt
Agriculture and manufactured exports grow slowly.
Stronger imports expected.
4
Morocco
Moderate rise in automotive and agriculture.
Services vulnerable.
5
Kenya
Steady exports in tea, flowers, tech services.
Exposed to global demand dips.
6
Ghana
Gold exports supportive; cocoa weaker.
Services exports affected.
7
Ethiopia
Recovery in coffee and horticulture exports.
Trade hindered by logistics.
8
Algeria
Gas exports supportive, non-oil weak.
Services imports rise.
9
Angola
Oil-dependent exports vulnerable.
Non-oil sector growth is slow.
10
Côte d'Ivoire
Cocoa and rubber exports stable.
Moderate services outlook.
Note: Rankings based on 2024 export size and WTO forecasts.
Quick Figure Highlights:
Africa's contribution to world trade growth: Only +0.4 percentage points in 2025.
Africa’s share in digitally delivered services exports: 0.9% in 2024, slowly rising.
Overall world trade contraction: -0.2% (2025).
"Africa’s trade will show mixed results in 2025, with strong import growth but only modest export recovery. Tanzania could benefit from shifts in global trade, but services exports will remain vulnerable."
Impact of Trump Tariffs on Africa (Including Tanzania)
Area
Impact
Details and Figures
Africa’s Merchandise Exports (2025)
Slight positive to neutral
Exports grow +0.6% adjusted (instead of +0.5%), helped by demand for new suppliers.
Services exports fall by -1.6% instead of growing.
Africa’s GDP Growth
Minimal slowdown
Small impact: GDP growth slightly flat (~0.0% change).
Regional Winners
Some LDCs
Least-developed African countries may increase exports by +4.8%.
Impact on Tanzania Specifically
Export Opportunities:
Tanzania could gain market access in the US for textiles, garments, agriculture as US buyers look for alternatives to Chinese goods.
Strong sectors: gold exports, horticulture, and tourism recovery.
Risks:
Services sector (tourism, logistics) could suffer because of lower global travel demand: services exports expected to fall -1.6% for Africa, including Tanzania.
Logistics costs may increase (higher shipping costs), which could hurt exporters' competitiveness.
GDP Impact:
Tanzania’s GDP growth impact is very minor (similar to Africa average at 0.0% to slight negative).
If global uncertainty spreads more, Tanzania's exports could slow more sharply in late 2025.
Short Conclusion:
"Trump tariffs could offer Tanzania a chance to expand goods exports, especially to the US, but services like tourism and shipping face a slowdown. Overall, Africa will see modest export gains but services sector pain."
