TICGL

| Economic Consulting Group

TICGL | Economic Consulting Group

The Tanzania Revenue Authority (TRA) achieved significant milestones in tax collection during the 2024/25 fiscal year (July 2024 – June 2025), reflecting enhanced administrative efficiency, taxpayer compliance, and technological advancements.

Key Highlights

Monthly Collection Breakdown (FY 2024/25)

Month2023/24 Collection (TZS Trillion)2024/25 Target (TZS Trillion)2024/25 Actual (TZS Trillion)Performance (%)Growth (%)
July1.942.252.35104.5%21.1%
August2.012.302.42105.5%20.4%
September2.622.883.02104.7%15.0%
October2.152.472.65107.4%23.6%
November2.142.422.50103.4%16.6%
December3.053.463.58103.3%17.3%
January2.122.382.42101.7%13.8%
February2.022.262.27100.2%12.2%
March2.492.792.84101.9%14.2%
April1.972.222.27102.1%15.3%
May2.222.442.53103.8%14.1%
June2.913.193.42107.4%17.5%
TOTAL27.6431.0532.26103.9%16.7%

Revenue Forecast for FY 2025/26

The TRA has set a target of TZS 36.066 trillion for the 2025/26 fiscal year, reflecting an anticipated growth of 11.8% from 2024/25. This ambitious target is supported by:

Projected Monthly Targets for 2025/26

MonthProjected Target (TZS Trillion)Projected Growth Rate (%)
July2.558.5%
August2.659.5%
September3.309.3%
October2.909.4%
November2.7510.0%
December4.0011.7%
January2.7011.6%
February2.5010.1%
March3.109.2%
April2.5010.1%
May2.8512.7%
June3.9014.0%
TOTAL36.0711.8%

Implications for Tanzania’s Economic Development (2025/26 Budget)

The TRA’s strong revenue performance in 2024/25 and the optimistic forecast for 2025/26 are critical for funding Tanzania’s TZS 56.49 trillion budget for 2025/26, which aims to achieve 6% GDP growth and aligns with the Third Five-Year National Development Plan (2021/22–2025/26) and Vision 2025. Below are the key implications for economic development:

1. Strengthened Fiscal Capacity

2. Support for Flagship Infrastructure Projects

The TRA’s revenue surplus supports the completion of strategic projects outlined in the 2025/26 budget, including:

These projects drive industrial capacity, competitiveness, and job creation, aligning with the budget’s theme of “Inclusive Economic Transformation through Strengthening Domestic Revenue Mobilization.”

3. Economic Growth and Job Creation

4. Social and Human Capital Development

5. Digital and Technological Advancements

6. Challenges and Risks

Conclusion

The TRA’s exceptional performance in 2024/25, with a record-breaking TZS 32.26 trillion collected, underscores Tanzania’s progress in domestic revenue mobilization. The forecasted TZS 36.066 trillion for 2025/26 will play a pivotal role in funding the TZS 56.49 trillion budget, supporting infrastructure, industrialization, and social development. By reducing reliance on external financing and fostering inclusive growth, Tanzania is poised to achieve its 6% GDP growth target and advance toward Vision 2050. However, addressing challenges like the narrow tax base and global economic uncertainties will be critical to sustaining this trajectory.

Tanzania’s investment landscape experienced remarkable growth between 2023 and 2024. The number of registered investment projects surged by 71%, from 526 projects in 2023 to 901 projects in 2024. This expansion was accompanied by a significant rise in committed capital investments, which grew by 62.8%, increasing from $5.72 billion in 2023 to $9.31 billion in 2024. In addition, employment opportunities linked to these investments rose sharply, with 212,293 jobs created in 2024, compared to 137,010 jobs in 2023—an increase of approximately 55%. This upward trend reflects strong investor confidence and supportive government policies, as shown by the rising number of permits and approvals issued: work permits grew by 40.8%, Certificates of Incentives by 71.3%, and land rights approvals by 22.2%. Despite a slight decrease in residence permits (-11.4%) and TRA-approved exemptions (-11.9%), the overall environment signals a robust and broad-based investment expansion in Tanzania.

Investment-Related Permits, Licenses, and Approvals: Tanzania 2023 vs 2024

1. Overall Growth in Investment Projects

This 71% increase in investment projects explains why permit and approval activities also expanded.

2. Permits and Approvals Breakdown

Institution20232024Change (Number)Change (%)
Immigration (Residence Permits)5,5404,908-632-11.4%
Labour Office (Work Permits)5,2727,425+2,153+40.8%
TRA (Tax Exemptions Approved)268236-32-11.9%
NIDA (ID Cards/NIN)387457+70+18.1%
TIC (Certificates of Incentives)526901+375+71.3%
Ministry of Lands (Derivative Rights)5466+12+22.2%

3. Detailed Explanation

Immigration (Residence Permits)

Labour Office (Work Permits)

TRA (Tax Exemptions Approved)

NIDA (Legal Identity Cards/NIN)

TIC (Certificates of Incentives)

Ministry of Lands (Derivative Rights)

4. Other Major Impacts Related to the Growth

Indicator20232024Growth (%)
Jobs Created137,010212,293+55%
Capital Investment$5.72 billion$9.31 billion+62.8%

Key Takeaways:

Trend on Tanzania’s Investment Growth (Based on Permits, Projects, Capital, and Jobs Data)

1. Strong Positive Growth Trend

This shows that investment is expanding strongly across all important dimensions:
more projects, more money coming in, and more jobs being created.

2. Administrative Efficiency and Policy Support

Policy and administrative support are aligning well with investment growth needs.

3. Higher Demand for Labor (Local and Foreign)

Investment is creating employment opportunities both for Tanzanians and expatriates.

4. More Demand for Land and Legal Compliance

This shows that investors are securing land for long-term operations and formalizing their presence legally (getting IDs/NINs for employees).

5. Selective Tightening in Some Areas

Tanzania is balancing growth with better controls to maximize local economic benefits.

🔵 Summary of the Trend

✅ Tanzania’s investment environment is growing strongly and broadly.
Government facilitation and private sector response are in sync.
Investments are leading to real economy benefits: more jobs, more money, more businesses.
✅ The country is carefully managing some parts (like residence permits and tax exemptions) to safeguard national interests.
Tanzania is solidifying itself as a growing investment destination in 2024 with sustainable, job-creating, and capital-attracting growth trends.

Tanzania’s Economic Growth Strengthens with Rising Credit and Financial Stability

Tanzania's economy has shown strong growth from 2021 to 2024, driven by rising domestic credit, expanding private sector lending, and increasing money supply. Domestic credit grew from 27.37 trillion TZS in 2021 to 46.82 trillion TZS in 2024 (+71%), while private sector lending increased by 72% over the same period, boosting investments and job creation. Additionally, broad money (M3) rose by 47%, and foreign currency deposits surged by 57%, reflecting greater financial confidence and economic resilience. These trends highlight Tanzania’s robust economic expansion and a strengthening financial sector.

Tanzania’s economic performance from 2021 to 2024/2025 has shown positive growth trends, primarily driven by increased credit availability, expanding money supply, and strong private sector growth. The following key indicators explain why Tanzania’s economy is performing well:

1. Strong Growth in Domestic Credit – Economic Expansion

2. Increased Private Sector Lending – Business Growth

3. Rising Money Supply – Expanding Financial Sector

4. Foreign Currency Deposits (FCD) Growth – Investor Confidence

5. Recovery of Foreign Financial Assets – Improved External Stability

6. Increased Government Borrowing for Development

Conclusion – Tanzania’s Economic Strength

From 2021 to 2024, Tanzania has demonstrated consistent economic growth, supported by:
71% growth in domestic credit, fueling business expansion.
72% rise in private sector lending, boosting investments and job creation.
Strong money supply growth, ensuring liquidity and financial inclusion.
Increasing foreign currency deposits, reflecting confidence in the banking system.
Recovery of foreign financial assets, improving economic resilience.

Table summary of Tanzania’s economic performance indicators from 2021 to 2024, showing why the economy is performing well:

Indicator2021 (Million TZS)2022 (Million TZS)2023 (Million TZS)2024 (Million TZS)% Change (2021–2024)
Domestic Credit27,371,15434,595,46341,047,50246,824,755+71%
Claims on Private Sector19,643,86023,815,12528,528,61333,759,428+72%
Reserve Money (M0)7,913,5649,103,8749,922,32711,049,539+40%
Broad Money (M2)24,773,94128,296,53432,083,03535,505,154+43%
Extended Broad Money (M3)32,127,71536,201,42441,107,81247,090,824+47%
Foreign Currency Deposits (FCD)7,353,7287,904,8909,024,77711,585,670+57%
Foreign Financial Assets12,240,63610,571,4499,663,72112,099,428Recovered
Government Claims (Net)6,501,8639,562,89611,603,73211,576,752+78%
Foreign Deposits in USDN/AN/AN/A4,355 Million USDIncreasing

Key Takeaways from the Table

71% growth in domestic credit – More loans for businesses and households, leading to higher economic activity.
72% increase in private sector lending – Boosts business expansion, investment, and job creation.
Broad money (M2 & M3) increased by 43%-47% – Showing higher liquidity and financial inclusion.
Foreign deposits (FCD) rose by 57%, indicating growing investor confidence in Tanzania’s economy.
Foreign financial assets recovered in 2024, improving external stability.
Government credit rose by 78%, signaling investment in infrastructure and development projects.

Over the past 24 years, Tanzania has dramatically increased its investment in development projects, with loan amounts rising by an impressive 8,800% from TZS 12.5 billion in 2000 to a peak of TZS 1.48 trillion in 2023. This growth reflects Tanzania's evolving economic ambitions, shifting from smaller projects in the early 2000s to major infrastructure initiatives in recent years. With an average annual growth rate of 34.8% in the early period and a steady increase to an average loan size of TZS 1.11 trillion from 2021-2024, Tanzania has committed to long-term, large-scale projects that drive national development and economic transformation.

1. Early Period (2000-2005)

2. Growth Phase (2006-2010)

3. Expansion Period (2011-2015)

4. High Growth Phase (2016-2020)

5. Recent Period (2021-2024)

Key Statistics and Observations (2000-2024)

Notable Trends

The loan trends from 2000 to 2024 showcase Tanzania’s progressive approach to development financing, evolving from smaller projects to larger, transformative initiatives. The recent years underline the government’s commitment to funding major infrastructure projects as a key strategy for national growth, illustrating the country’s increased borrowing capacity and dedication to sustainable development.

The trends in Tanzania's development project loans from 2000 to 2024 with key insights about the country’s economic priorities, capacity, and strategic development approach:

  1. Evolving Economic Ambitions:
    • Tanzania’s loan growth from modest amounts to massive investments highlights an evolution in economic ambitions. The early years focused on smaller, foundational projects that built the capacity for Tanzania to eventually manage larger, more complex projects.
  2. Increased Borrowing Capacity and Economic Maturity:
    • The consistent increase in loan amounts, especially in recent years with annual loans exceeding TZS 1 trillion, suggests that Tanzania has gained financial credibility and capacity to manage significant debt responsibly. This is typically a marker of economic maturation, as the government attracts and secures large-scale funding from development partners and lenders.
  3. Infrastructure as a Development Backbone:
    • The data points to a clear prioritization of infrastructure, particularly in the last two phases. Infrastructure is foundational to economic growth as it enhances connectivity, productivity, and business opportunities. This investment suggests a focus on long-term national growth through improved transport, energy, and communications infrastructure.
  4. Growing Stability in Economic Planning:
    • In the later phases, especially 2016-2020, there is a marked reduction in volatility year-over-year, indicating more consistent and predictable economic planning. This stability shows a maturing approach to budgetary management and project financing, likely a result of improved financial governance and strategic economic planning.
  5. Shifting from Modest to Transformative Projects:
    • Over the 24-year period, Tanzania has shifted from financing smaller projects to ambitious, transformative initiatives. This trend reflects a confidence in taking on complex, high-impact projects that can drive significant national change, such as large-scale infrastructure that could transform sectors like agriculture, transportation, and industry.
  6. Commitment to Sustainable Development Goals:
    • The emphasis on development financing aligns with Tanzania’s commitment to sustainable development, likely linked to broader goals such as poverty reduction, job creation, and industrialization. This trend supports Tanzania’s Vision 2025 and its aspirations to transition into a middle-income economy.
  7. Resilience in Economic Policy:
    • Despite economic fluctuations and potential external challenges, the overall upward trend in development financing suggests a resilient policy approach. Tanzania’s ability to maintain consistent loan growth indicates a sustained commitment to growth, even through global or local economic challenges.

These loan trends reflect Tanzania’s strategic evolution towards building an economy grounded in robust infrastructure and national development. The willingness to secure increasing loans for development projects signals a vision for economic transformation, aimed at positioning Tanzania as a resilient, forward-looking economy.

Authored by Dr. Bravious Felix Kahyoza PhD, FMVA, CP3P (braviouskahyoza5@gmail.com)

This discussion paper examines the evolution and strategic significance of Tanzania’s economic engagement with China, focusing on investment flows, bilateral cooperation under the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC), and opportunities emerging from the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). The analysis underscores Tanzania’s transformation into one of the most attractive investment destinations for Chinese enterprises in Africa—anchored on stability, strategic location, and pro-business reforms.

Over the past two decades, China has invested over USD 11.5 billion across 1,360 projects, creating more than 155,000 jobs in Tanzania. This partnership continues to evolve from infrastructure diplomacy toward sustainable industrialization and inclusive growth—reflecting both nations’ commitment to mutual benefit and balanced development.


Key Findings

🇨🇳 Historical Foundations, Modern Convergence
Tanzania-China relations date back to 1964, built on South–South solidarity and anti-colonial cooperation. Landmark projects like the TAZARA Railway in the 1970s laid the foundation for enduring bilateral trust. Under FOCAC (since 2000), Tanzania has gained zero-tariff access to 98% of its exports to China, expanding trade to USD 8.78 billion by 2023.

Strategic Investment Hub
Tanzania’s robust macroeconomic stability, political peace, and pro-market legal reforms make it a leading destination for Chinese foreign direct investment (FDI). Sectors driving current inflows include manufacturing, infrastructure, energy, agriculture, and ICT—supported by economic growth averaging 6–7% annually and inflation contained below 5%.

⚙️ Flagship Chinese Investments
Notable ventures include:

These investments highlight China’s leadership in Tanzania’s industrial growth and align with the FYDP III vision for structural transformation and import substitution.

BRI and FOCAC Synergy
Through BRI, large-scale infrastructure such as Bagamoyo Port (USD 10B) and industrial zones enhance regional connectivity. FOCAC complements this by promoting green investment, skills transfer, and policy harmonization, ensuring people-centered growth.

Reforms and Institutional Strengthening
The Tanzania Investment Act of 2022 streamlined procedures by eliminating over 230 redundant taxes, improving licensing timelines, and strengthening arbitration mechanisms under ICSID. Agencies like TIC and EPZA now serve as one-stop centers for investors, offering tax holidays and capital repatriation guarantees.


Challenges and Future Prospects

While Chinese investment has boosted industrial capacity, environmental and social sustainability issues persist, particularly in extractive industries and agriculture. Bureaucratic inefficiencies and uneven policy enforcement remain barriers to consistent investment outcomes.

To sustain long-term benefits, Tanzania must:

With effective reforms, trade volumes and job creation are projected to double by 2030, reinforcing the win-win narrative of Tanzania-China cooperation.


Conclusion

Tanzania’s partnership with China has evolved from ideological solidarity to a pragmatic economic alliance shaping Africa’s future growth trajectory. Through BRI and FOCAC, Tanzania exemplifies how infrastructure-led and industrial diversification can transform emerging economies—if guided by sustainability, transparency, and local value creation.

This paper concludes that Tanzania’s investment imperative lies not only in attracting capital but in ensuring that every yuan invested translates into skills, technology, and shared prosperity for Tanzanians.


Read the Full Paper:
Tanzania's Investment Imperative in the Context of China-Africa Relations (FOCAC)
Published by TICGL | Economic Research Centre

Tanzania's Investment Imperative in the Context of China-Africa RelationsDownload


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