Bank of Tanzania · April 2026 Monthly Economic Review · TICGL Intelligence
Tanzania Economic Update — April 2026: All Key Variables at a Glance
A complete, data-rich snapshot of Tanzania's economic performance across output, inflation, monetary conditions,
financial markets, government finance, debt, and the external sector — sourced directly from the Bank of Tanzania's
Monthly Economic Review, April 2026.
Reference: Year/Quarter to March 2026Source: Bank of Tanzania, NBS, MoF, TRAAnalysis: TICGL Economic Intelligence Unit
Section 1 · Output
Output Performance — GDP Growth Remains Broad-Based and Strong
Tanzania's economy maintained strong momentum in Q4 2025, recording 5.7% growth — up from 5.4% in Q4 2024. Growth was broad-based, led by agriculture, financial & insurance services, and construction. Q1 and Q2 2026 growth is projected at 6.2% and 6.1% respectively, factoring in Middle East geopolitical headwinds.
Q4 2025 GDP Growth
5.7%
▲ vs 5.4% in Q4 2024
Broad-based expansion
Q1 2026 Projection
6.2%
▲ Accelerating
High-frequency indicators
Q2 2026 Projection
6.1%
▲ Sustained momentum
Agriculture + Finance led
Full Year 2025 (Est.)
6.0%
▲ vs 5.5% in 2024
Const. 2015 prices
Quarterly GDP Growth Rate — 2021 to 2025
Percent · Stacked by quarter (Q1–Q4)
Sectoral Contribution to Q4 2025 Growth
Percentage points contribution
Annual GDP Growth & Per Capita Income
2018–2025 · Constant 2015 prices and current USD
Year
GDP Growth (Const. %)
GDP Growth (Curr. %)
Per Capita (TZS '000)
Per Capita (USD)
Inflation (%)
2018
7.0
4.4
2,356.5
1,041.0
3.5
2019
6.9
8.5
2,479.3
1,083.5
3.4
2020
4.5
8.1
2,597.7
1,126.7
3.3
2021
4.8
7.4
2,705.4
1,171.6
3.7
2022
4.7
9.4
2,854.1
1,233.1
4.3
2023
5.1
10.5
3,058.8
1,263.1
3.8
2024
5.5
10.2
3,234.9
1,239.2
3.1
2025p
6.0
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
3.3
Source: NBS, Ministry of Finance, Bank of Tanzania. p = provisional.
Investment Signal: Tanzania's five-year average GDP growth rate (2021–2025) of approximately 5.2% places it comfortably among the faster-growing economies in Sub-Saharan Africa. Growth is projected to accelerate to 6.2% in Q1 2026, driven by construction, agriculture, and financial services — sectors with strong multiplier effects on employment and household income.
Section 2 · Inflation
Inflation — Stable Within Target, But External Risks Rising
Headline inflation held steady at 3.2% in March 2026, unchanged from February — well within Tanzania's 3–5% country target and below both the EAC upper bound (8%) and SADC upper bound (8%). Core inflation edged up marginally to 2.2%. Food inflation eased to 5.5%. The Strait of Hormuz crisis poses near-term upside risk via energy and transport costs.
Headline Inflation
3.2%
→ Unchanged MoM
Target: 3–5%
Core Inflation
2.2%
▲ +0.1pp MoM
Excl. food & energy
Food Inflation
5.5%
▼ From 5.7%
Improving harvest
Energy/Fuel/Utils
2.1%
▼ From 2.8%
Charcoal & firewood ↓
Services Inflation
2.4%
▲ From 2.2%
Restaurants & transport
Transport Inflation
4.2%
▲ From 4.0%
Fuel pass-through
Headline, Core, Food & Energy Inflation
12-month % change · Mar 2024 – Mar 2026
Contribution to Overall Inflation
Percentage points · Mar 2025 – Mar 2026
Detailed Inflation by Main CPI Category — March 2026
Annual % change · Weight in CPI basket · Mar 2025 vs Mar 2026
Category
Weight (%)
Mar-25 Annual
Feb-26 Annual
Mar-26 Annual
MoM Mar-26
Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages
28.2
5.4
5.7
5.5
1.8
Alcoholic Beverages & Tobacco
1.9
3.5
2.1
2.1
0.1
Clothing & Footwear
10.8
2.0
1.1
1.3
0.5
Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas
15.1
3.8
1.7
1.6
0.7
Furnishings & Household Equipment
7.9
2.2
2.5
2.3
0.1
Health
2.5
1.4
0.9
1.1
0.4
Transport
14.1
2.1
4.0
4.2
0.5
Information & Communication
5.4
0.1
1.1
1.0
0.0
Restaurants & Accommodation
6.6
1.7
1.7
2.1
0.4
Education Services
2.0
4.1
0.3
0.9
0.6
Personal Care & Misc.
2.1
3.3
3.2
3.3
0.3
All Items (Headline)
100.0
3.3
3.2
3.2
0.8
Source: National Bureau of Statistics and Bank of Tanzania computations.
⚠ Forward Risk: While energy inflation fell to 2.1% in March 2026, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz in March 2026 has already driven crude prices to USD 95.58/barrel (+40.5% MoM). Pass-through to retail pump prices — which slightly increased in March — will intensify in the next reporting cycle, posing upside risk to both transport and food inflation.
The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) held the Central Bank Rate (CBR) at 5.75% for Q2 2026 at its April 2026 meeting, balancing inflation risks with growth considerations amid global uncertainty. Notably, the MPC narrowed the CBR corridor from ±200 basis points to ±150 basis points effective 1 April 2026, strengthening monetary transmission. M3 grew 23.2% and private sector credit expanded 24.1%.
Central Bank Rate (CBR)
5.75%
→ Held for Q2 2026
MPC April 2026 decision
CBR Corridor
±150 bps
▼ Narrowed from ±200
Effective 1 Apr 2026
M3 Growth (YoY)
23.2%
▼ From 24.5%
TZS 64,246.7B stock
Private Sector Credit
24.1%
→ Stable
TZS 47,168.3B stock
Reverse Repo Uptake
TZS 430.8B
▼ From TZS 581.4B
Declining bank demand
7-Day IBCM Rate
6.32%
▼ From 6.34%
Within CBR corridor
M3 Money Supply Stock & Growth Rate
TZS Billions (bar) · Annual growth % (line) · Jan 2025 – Mar 2026
Private Sector Credit Growth
TZS Billions (bar) · Growth % (line) · Jan 2025 – Mar 2026
Money Supply Components — Key Data Points
TZS Billions & Annual Growth %
Component
Mar-25 (TZS B)
Feb-26 (TZS B)
Mar-26 (TZS B)
YoY Growth
Extended Broad Money (M3)
52,141.9
63,069.3
64,246.7
+23.2%
Foreign Currency Deposits
13,605.9
14,569.7
14,998.4
+10.2%
Broad Money (M2)
38,536.0
48,499.6
49,248.3
+27.8%
Other Deposits (Savings & Time)
14,994.3
18,541.9
19,071.4
+27.2%
Narrow Money (M1)
23,541.7
29,957.7
30,176.9
+28.2%
Currency in Circulation
7,190.0
8,151.8
8,078.3
+12.4%
Transferable Deposits
16,351.7
21,805.9
22,098.5
+35.1%
Reserve Money (M0)
11,793.1
14,990.0
14,998.9
+27.2%
Claims on Private Sector
37,999.3
46,007.4
47,168.3
+24.1%
Net Foreign Assets (Banking Sys.)
15,442.1
15,749.5
14,824.5
−4.0%
Source: Bank of Tanzania and commercial banks.
Credit Growth by Economic Sector — Year Ending March 2026
Annual % change — Selected key sectors
Source: Banks and Bank of Tanzania. Mining & quarrying growth reflects government programmes supporting artisanal/small-scale miners.
Transmission Strengthened: By narrowing the CBR corridor to ±150 basis points, the MPC has tightened the band within which the 7-day interbank rate must operate. This reduces interest rate volatility, improves policy predictability, and strengthens the pass-through of the CBR signal to bank lending rates — a technically significant policy refinement.
Section 4 · Interest Rates
Interest Rates — Lending Rates Stable; Deposits Trending Up
Banks' interest rates remained largely unchanged in March 2026. The overall lending rate held at 15.11% while negotiated deposit rates increased to 11.57% from 11.48%. Treasury bill yields declined sharply to an average of 5.21%, signalling improved fiscal confidence. The short-term interest rate spread widened modestly to 5.85 percentage points.
Government securities markets performed robustly in March 2026 with consistently oversubscribed auctions. T-bill subscriptions reached TZS 812.9 billion against an offer of TZS 452.1 billion (1.8× oversubscribed). The Tanzanian shilling appreciated 2.52% year-on-year, trading at TZS 2,583.23 per USD versus TZS 2,650.24 a year earlier.
T-Bill Subscription Ratio
1.80×
▲ Oversubscribed
TZS 812.9B vs 452.1B offer
Shilling (TZS/USD)
2,583
▲ +2.52% YoY
Appreciation vs Mar-25
IBCM Turnover (Mar-26)
TZS 2,699B
▼ From TZS 2,797B
7-day tenor: 60.7%
BOT Net FX Sales
USD 65M
▼ From USD 128.8M
Easing demand pressure
Tanzania Shilling Exchange Rate (TZS/USD)
Monthly weighted average · Mar 2025 – Mar 2026
T-Bill Auction Performance
TZS Billions · Offer vs Subscriptions vs Accepted · Jan–Mar 2026
Section 6 · Government Budget
Government Budget — Revenue Exceeds Target; Expenditure Well-Directed
Domestic revenue collections in February 2026 totalled TZS 2,972.9 billion, exceeding the monthly target by 3.2%. Tax revenue reached TZS 2,417.4 billion — 5.7% above target — reflecting improvements in tax administration. Total expenditure was TZS 3,550.1 billion, with 31.6% directed to development projects.
Total Revenue (Feb 26)
TZS 2,973B
▲ +3.2% vs target
Central govt: TZS 2,841B
Tax Revenue (Feb 26)
TZS 2,417B
▲ +5.7% vs target
All major tax heads
Total Expenditure
TZS 3,550B
→ Aligned to resources
Feb 2026
Development Expenditure
TZS 1,120B
→ 31.6% of total spend
Infrastructure focus
Revenue by Category — Feb 2026
TZS Billions · Actual vs Estimate vs 2025 Actuals
Expenditure by Category — Feb 2026
TZS Billions · Actual vs Estimate vs 2025 Actuals
Fiscal Ratios — Historical Overview
% of GDP · Fiscal years 2018/19 – 2024/25
Fiscal Year
Revenue/GDP
Grants/GDP
Current Exp/GDP
Dev. Exp/GDP
Budget Balance (excl. grants)/GDP
Overall Balance/GDP
2017/18
14.8
0.8
10.2
6.6
−2.1
−1.9
2018/19
14.3
0.4
10.7
6.5
−2.9
−3.3
2019/20
15.0
0.7
10.1
7.1
−2.2
−1.9
2020/21
13.7
0.5
9.9
7.8
−4.0
−4.0
2021/22
14.9
0.4
9.8
9.2
−4.1
−3.6
2022/23
15.0
0.3
11.0
7.4
−3.4
−3.1
2023/24
14.7
0.3
10.8
7.2
−3.3
−3.1
2024/25
15.6
0.4
11.9
6.9
−3.2
−3.0
Source: Ministry of Finance and Bank of Tanzania.
✔ Revenue Momentum: The 2024/25 fiscal year recorded the highest revenue-to-GDP ratio in the series at 15.6%, reflecting sustained improvements in tax administration and compliance. The overall budget deficit narrowed to −3.0% of GDP — the lowest since 2019/20.
Section 7 · Debt
National Debt — Total Stock at USD 50.5 Billion; Domestic Debt Eases
Tanzania's total national debt stock was USD 50,457.5 million at end March 2026, a 1.2% monthly decline. External debt (70.4% of total) stood at USD 35,540.2 million, with multilateral creditors (57.8%) dominating. Domestic debt eased marginally to TZS 38,447.9 billion, with commercial banks and pension funds holding over 55% of the portfolio.
Total National Debt
$50.46B
▼ −1.2% MoM
USD 50,457.5M
External Debt Stock
$35.54B
▼ −0.8% MoM
70.4% of total debt
Domestic Debt Stock
TZS 38.4T
▼ −0.9% MoM
29.6% of total (TZS)
Multilateral Share
57.8%
→ Largest creditor block
USD 20,543.5M
External Debt by Creditor Type — March 2026
% of total external debt (USD 35,540.2M)
Domestic Debt Creditor Composition — March 2026
% of total domestic debt (TZS 38,447.9B)
External Debt Currency Composition & Use of Funds
Percentage share · March 2026
Currency
Mar-25 Share %
Feb-26 Share %
Mar-26 Share %
Use of Funds
Mar-26 Share %
US Dollar
67.3
66.0
66.7
BoP & Budget Support
22.5
Euro
16.9
17.7
17.7
Transport & Telecom
22.0
Chinese Yuan
6.3
6.5
6.6
Social Welfare & Education
19.2
Other
9.5
9.7
9.0
Energy & Mining
12.0
Agriculture
5.3
Real Estate & Construction
5.1
Source: Ministry of Finance and Bank of Tanzania.
Section 8 · External Sector
External Sector — Export Surge Partially Offset by Rising Import Bill
Exports of goods and services reached USD 18,603.5 million (+12.8%) in the year ending March 2026, anchored by gold (+38.5%) and travel (+9.3%). Imports rose 13.6% to USD 19,373.8 million — capital goods dominance signals investment-led growth. The current account deficit widened to USD 2,680.1 million (+33.3%) but forex reserves grew to USD 6,084.4 million (4.7 months import cover).
Total Exports
$18.6B
▲ +12.8%
Year ending Mar-26
Gold Exports
$5.22B
▲ +38.5%
Largest single earner
Travel Receipts
$4.34B
▲ +9.3%
Tourism recovery
Total Imports
$19.4B
▲ +13.6%
Capital goods surge
Current Account
−$2.68B
▼ −33.3%
Wider but manageable
Forex Reserves
$6.08B
▲ 4.7 months
Above benchmarks
Exports vs Imports — Goods & Services Trend
USD Billions · Year ending March 2022–2026
Top Export Categories — Year Ending March 2026 vs 2025
Zanzibar's current account surplus grew 27.9% to USD 903.6 million in the year ending March 2026, driven by a 22.8% surge in tourist arrivals (942,639 visitors). Headline inflation eased to 4.9% (from 5.1% in Mar-25), while exports grew 24.8% to USD 1,633.3 million. Service receipts — at 95% of total exports — reflect the island's tourism-centric economic model.
Current Account Surplus
$903.6M
▲ +27.9% YoY
Year ending Mar-26
Tourist Arrivals
942,639
▲ +22.8%
Year ending Mar-26
Total Exports
$1.63B
▲ +24.8%
95% services
Headline Inflation
4.9%
▼ From 5.1%
Mar 2026
Zanzibar: Revenue vs Expenditure (Mar 2026)
TZS Billions · Actual vs Estimate vs 2025 Actuals
Zanzibar: Inflation Components
Annual % change · Mar 2025 to Mar 2026
Zanzibar Trade Summary — Year Ending March 2026
USD Millions
Item
2025 (Annual)
2026p (Annual)
Change
Goods Exports
34.1
81.9
+140%
Cloves (Value $'000)
3,888.8
37,319.9
+859%
Manufactured Goods
14,005.8
20,649.5
+47.4%
Services Receipts
1,274.2
1,551.4
+21.8%
Total Exports
1,308.3
1,633.3
+24.8%
Total Imports
618.1
768.7
+24.4%
Goods Balance (Net)
−484.4
−569.4
+17.5%
Services Balance (Net)
1,174.5
1,434.0
+22.1%
Current Account Balance
706.5
903.6
+27.9%
Source: Tanzania Revenue Authority, banks, and Bank of Tanzania computations. p = provisional.
Section 10 · Global Context
Global Context — Slowing Growth, Rising Commodity Prices, Hormuz Shock
The IMF's World Economic Outlook (April 2026) revised global growth down to 3.1% from a 3.3% January forecast, reflecting Middle East conflict uncertainty. Sub-Saharan Africa is projected to grow 4.3% (revised from 4.6%). Crude oil surged to USD 95.58/barrel in March 2026. Gold prices remain elevated at USD 4,855.54/troy oz. Tanzania's gold-oil natural hedge provides structural resilience.
Crude Oil (Mar-26)
$95.58
▲ +40.5% MoM
Strait of Hormuz shock
Gold Price (Mar-26)
$4,856
▼ From $5,020
Per troy oz
Global Growth 2026
3.1%
▼ From 3.3%
IMF WEO Apr-26
Sub-Saharan Africa 2026
4.3%
▼ From 4.6%
IMF WEO Apr-26
Selected Global Growth Projections — IMF WEO April 2026
GDP growth (%) — 2023 to 2027 projections
Economy
2023
2024
2025
2026p
2027p
Global
3.5
3.3
3.4
3.1
3.2
United States
2.9
2.8
2.1
2.3
2.1
Euro Area
0.4
0.9
1.4
1.1
1.2
United Kingdom
0.3
1.1
1.3
0.8
1.3
Japan
0.7
−0.2
1.2
0.7
0.6
China
5.4
5.0
5.0
4.4
4.0
India
7.2
7.1
7.6
6.5
6.5
Brazil
3.2
3.4
2.3
1.9
2.0
Sub-Saharan Africa
3.8
4.2
4.5
4.3
4.4
Tanzania (BOT Est.)
5.1
5.5
6.0
~6.1–6.2
—
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Database, April 2026. Tanzania figures from Bank of Tanzania.
Tanzania vs Peers: At a projected 6.1–6.2% for 2026, Tanzania is expected to grow nearly twice the Sub-Saharan Africa average (4.3%) and more than twice the global average (3.1%). This growth premium reflects structural factors: a large agricultural base, strong gold export revenues, expanding financial services, and improving investment climate fundamentals.
TICGL Economic Intelligence — Related Reading & Tools
Tanzania National Debt 2026: TZS 130 Trillion – What Every Tanzanian Owes | TICGL
Bank of Tanzania · Monthly Economic Review · April 2026 · Section 2.7
Tanzania's National Debt: TZS 130 Trillion
As of March 2026, Tanzania's total national debt stands at USD 50,457.5 million — equivalent to approximately TZS 130 trillion at the prevailing exchange rate of TZS 2,577.4 per US dollar. This is the most comprehensive debt analysis available, covering external debt, domestic debt, creditor structure, currency exposure, and — crucially — what this means for every Tanzanian citizen.
External Debt
TZS 91.6T
USD 35,540.2 million · 70.4% of total
▲ from USD 33,284M (Mar-25)
Domestic Debt
TZS 38.4T
29.6% of total national debt
▼ slightly from TZS 38.8T (Feb-26)
TOTAL NATIONAL DEBT
TZS 130.1T
USD 50,457.5 million · March 2026
▲ from USD 46,211M (Mar-25)
📅 As at: March 2026🏦 Source: Bank of Tanzania, Ministry of Finance💱 Rate: TZS 2,577.4 / USD (Mar-26)👥 Population: 69 million Tanzanians✍️ Analysis: TICGL Economic Research
What Does Every Tanzanian Owe?
Tanzania's total national debt of TZS 130.1 trillion, when divided equally among all 69 million Tanzanians — from newborns to the elderly, employed and unemployed — gives each citizen a debt burden of TZS 1,884,695. That is approximately TZS 1.88 million per person.
📐 CALCULATION METHODOLOGY
Total Debt (USD) = USD 50,457.5M
× Exchange Rate = TZS 2,577.4/USD
= TZS 130,044,285M (≈ TZS 130.0T)
÷ Population = 69,000,000
──────────────────────────────
= TZS 1,884,694 per Tanzanian
≈ USD 731 per citizen
TZS 1,884,695
Per Tanzanian Citizen
Based on population of 69 million & March 2026 debt figures
👶
Each Citizen Owes
TZS 1.88M
~USD 731 per person
👨👩👧👦
Family of 5 Owes
TZS 9.42M
USD 3,655 per household
🏙️
Dar es Salaam (5M)
TZS 9.42T
City's proportional share
📅
Debt Grown Per Citizen
+TZS 474K
Since March 2025 estimate
💵
External Debt Per Citizen
TZS 1.33M
USD 515 / person (foreign)
🏦
Domestic Debt Per Citizen
TZS 557K
TZS 38.4T ÷ 69M people
Total Debt (USD)
USD 50,457.5M
USD 50.5 billion
Total Debt (TZS)
TZS 130.0T
130 trillion shillings
External Debt (TZS)
TZS 91.6T
70.4% of national debt
Domestic Debt (TZS)
TZS 38.4T
29.6% of national debt
Exchange Rate Used
2,577.4
TZS per USD, end Mar-26
Debt Per Citizen
TZS 1.88M
69M population basis
🏛️
National Debt Overview — March 2026
Total debt stock, year-on-year change, and structure in TZS and USD
Tanzania's Total Debt Stock at a Glance
March 2026
Tanzania's national debt decreased slightly by 1.2% month-on-month from USD 51,078.3 million at the end of February 2026 to USD 50,457.5 million at the end of March 2026. Of this, 70.4% was external debt (USD 35,540.2 million) and 29.6% was domestic debt (TZS 38,447.9 billion).
Total National Debt (TZS)
TZS 130.0T
USD 50,457.5 million
▼ -1.2% from Feb-26
External Debt (TZS)
TZS 91.6T
USD 35,540.2M · 70.4%
▼ -0.8% from Feb-26
Domestic Debt (TZS)
TZS 38.4T
TZS 38,447.9 billion · 29.6%
Slightly below Feb-26
Debt Per Tanzanian
TZS 1.88M
Pop. 69M · USD 731/citizen
◆ March 2026 basis
National Debt Composition — March 2026
External 70.4% · TZS 91.6T
Domestic 29.6% · TZS 38.4T
Conversion: USD figures × TZS 2,577.4/USD (end-March 2026 rate). Source: Ministry of Finance, Bank of Tanzania, Table A10 & Section 2.7.
TZS Conversion Note: All USD-denominated debt figures have been converted to TZS using the end-of-period exchange rate of TZS 2,577.4 per USD (March 2026, from Table A10). External debt: USD 35,540.2M × 2,577.4 = TZS 91,593 billion (≈ TZS 91.6 trillion). Domestic debt is already denominated in TZS at TZS 38,447.9 billion (≈ TZS 38.4 trillion). Combined total: TZS 130,041 billion ≈ TZS 130 trillion.
National Debt Growth Trajectory — TZS Terms
2018 – March 2026
Tanzania's total debt has grown substantially over the past eight years, both in absolute terms and in TZS value — compounded by exchange rate movements.
External debt converted at prevailing period exchange rates. Domestic debt in TZS. Source: BOT Table A10, Table A1, Section 2.7.
🌍
External Debt — TZS 91.6 Trillion
Public & private external debt by borrower, creditor, currency, and use of funds
External Debt by Borrower March 2026
Central government accounts for the vast majority of Tanzania's external debt at 82.7%, while the private sector holds 17.3%. Public corporations have no outstanding external debt.
Central Govt External Debt
TZS 75.7T
USD 29,398.5M · 82.7% share
▲ Growing
Private Sector External
TZS 14.8T
USD 5,723.0M · 17.3% share
◆ Stable
Public Corporations
TZS 0
USD 0.0M · 0.0% share
◆ Cleared
Borrower Category
Amount (USD M)
Amount (TZS B)
Share %
Mar-25 (USD M)
12M Change
Central Government — Total
29,398.5
75,774.3
82.7%
26,789.5
▲ +9.7%
— Disbursed Outstanding (DOD)
29,318.6
75,567.5
82.5%
26,712.0
▲ +9.7%
— Interest Arrears
80.0
206.2
0.2%
77.5
▲ Slight rise
Private Sector — Total
6,141.7
15,829.3
17.3%
6,491.0
▼ -5.4%
— Disbursed Outstanding (DOD)
5,723.0
14,752.1
16.1%
5,912.1
▼ -3.2%
— Interest Arrears
418.7
1,079.1
1.2%
578.9
▼ Declining
Public Corporations
0.0
0.0
0.0%
3.8
✓ Cleared
Total External Debt Stock
35,540.2
91,603.7
100.0%
33,284.3
▲ +6.8%
Conversion: USD × TZS 2,577.4 = TZS equivalent. Source: Bank of Tanzania, Table 2.7.1.
External Debt by Creditor March 2026
Multilateral institutions remain Tanzania's largest creditor at 57.8% of external debt — dominated by the World Bank and IMF — followed by commercial lenders (35.8%) and bilateral creditors (4.4%).
🏛️ Multilateral (World Bank, IMF, AfDB)
57.8%
🏦 Commercial Lenders
35.8%
🤝 Bilateral (Govt-to-Govt)
4.4%
📦 Export Credits
2.0%
Creditor Type
USD M (Mar-26)
TZS Billion
Share %
USD M (Mar-25)
Change
🏛️ Multilateral Institutions
20,543.5
52,966.1
57.8%
18,634.0
▲ +10.2%
— Disbursed Outstanding
20,520.8
52,907.5
57.7%
18,602.0
—
🏦 Commercial Lenders
12,717.2
32,779.5
35.8%
12,117.8
▲ +4.9%
— Disbursed Outstanding
12,376.5
31,901.8
34.8%
11,744.3
—
— Interest Arrears
340.6
877.9
1.0%
373.5
—
🤝 Bilateral
1,551.5
3,998.2
4.4%
1,405.1
▲ +10.4%
📦 Export Credits
728.0
1,876.4
2.0%
1,127.4
▼ -35.4%
Total External Debt
35,540.2
91,620.2
100.0%
33,284.3
▲ +6.8%
Source: Bank of Tanzania, Table 2.7.2. TZS = USD × 2,577.4.
Multilateral Dominance — A Relative Comfort: Tanzania's heavy reliance on multilateral creditors (57.8%) is broadly positive from a debt sustainability perspective. Multilateral loans typically carry concessional terms — lower interest rates (often 0.5–1.5%), longer maturities (25–40 years), and more flexible rescheduling provisions — compared to commercial debt. The 35.8% commercial creditor share (TZS 32.8 trillion) is the key risk concentration, as these loans carry market-rate interest and shorter maturities, increasing refinancing pressure.
Currency Composition of External Debt March 2026
The US dollar dominates Tanzania's external debt at 66.7%, creating significant currency risk — any TZS depreciation automatically increases the TZS-equivalent debt burden without any new borrowing.
US Dollar (USD)
66.7%
TZS 61.1T equivalent
◆ Dominant currency
Euro (EUR)
17.7%
TZS 16.2T equivalent
◆ Second largest
Chinese Yuan (CNY)
6.6%
TZS 6.0T equivalent
▲ Growing share
Other Currencies
9.0%
TZS 8.2T equivalent
◆ SDR, JPY, others
USD 66.7%
EUR 17.7%
CNY 6.6%
Other 9.0%
Currency
Mar-25 Share
Feb-26 Share
Mar-26 Share
Est. TZS Trillion (Mar-26)
Trend
🇺🇸 US Dollar (USD)
67.3%
66.0%
66.7%
≈ TZS 61.1T
◆ Relatively stable
🇪🇺 Euro (EUR)
16.9%
17.7%
17.7%
≈ TZS 16.2T
▲ Slightly rising
🇨🇳 Chinese Yuan (CNY)
6.3%
6.5%
6.6%
≈ TZS 6.0T
▲ Growing
🌐 Other Currencies
9.5%
9.7%
9.0%
≈ TZS 8.2T
▼ Slightly declining
Total External Debt
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
≈ TZS 91.6T
—
Source: Bank of Tanzania, Table 2.7.4. TZS equivalents estimated using 66.7% of USD 35,540.2M × 2,577.4, etc.
Currency Risk Warning: With 66.7% of external debt in USD, every 100 TZS depreciation against the dollar automatically adds approximately TZS 2.37 trillion to Tanzania's external debt stock in shilling terms (USD 23.7 billion × 100). The shilling's current appreciation (2.52% in the year to March 2026) is providing relief — but this is contingent on continued strong gold exports and tourism receipts. A reversal driven by the Middle East oil crisis could rapidly increase the TZS debt burden.
External Debt by Use of Funds March 2026
Where has Tanzania's external borrowing been deployed? Transport and telecommunications, and balance of payments support together account for 44.5% of disbursed outstanding debt.
🚢 Transport & Telecommunications
22.0%
💰 BoP & Budget Support
22.5%
🎓 Social Welfare & Education
19.2%
⚡ Energy & Mining
12.0%
🏗️ Real Estate & Construction
5.1%
🌾 Agriculture
5.3%
🏭 Industries
3.7%
💼 Finance & Insurance
3.6%
🌴 Tourism
1.8%
📦 Other
4.8%
Source: Bank of Tanzania, Table 2.7.3. March 2026 disbursed outstanding debt by use of funds.
March 2026 Debt Service: In March 2026, external debt service payments totalled USD 103.7 million (≈ TZS 267.3 billion), of which USD 48.0 million was principal repayments and USD 55.7 million was interest. Against disbursements of USD 70.3 million, Tanzania recorded net outflows of USD 33.3 million on its external debt in March 2026 — meaning more went out in debt service than came in as new disbursements.
🏦
Domestic Debt — TZS 38.4 Trillion
Government domestic debt: instruments, creditors, and servicing — March 2026
Domestic Debt Structure March 2026
Tanzania's domestic debt stood at TZS 38,447.9 billion (≈ TZS 38.4 trillion) at end-March 2026, slightly below TZS 38,781.7 billion at end-February 2026. The portfolio is dominated by Treasury bonds at 82.2%.
Total Domestic Debt
TZS 38.4T
TZS 38,447.9 billion
▼ Slightly below Feb-26
Treasury Bonds (T-Bonds)
TZS 31.6T
82.2% of domestic debt
◆ Dominant instrument
Overdraft (Non-Securitised)
TZS 5.1T
13.3% of domestic debt
◆ Government overdraft at BOT
Treasury Bills (T-Bills)
TZS 1.6T
4.1% of domestic debt
▼ Declining share
Instrument
Mar-25 (TZS B)
Feb-26 (TZS B)
Mar-26 (TZS B)
Mar-26 (TZS T)
Share %
12M Change
🏆 Government Bonds (T-Bonds)
27,237.2
31,333.2
31,609.9
≈ TZS 31.6T
82.2%
▲ +16.1%
Treasury Bills (T-Bills)
1,888.8
1,653.0
1,575.3
≈ TZS 1.6T
4.1%
▼ -16.6%
Government Stocks
187.1
135.7
135.7
≈ TZS 0.1T
0.4%
▼ -27.5%
Tax Certificates
0.1
0.1
0.1
Negligible
0.0%
◆ Stable
Overdraft (Non-Securitised)
4,923.9
5,659.6
5,126.8
≈ TZS 5.1T
13.3%
▲ +4.1%
Total Domestic Debt
34,255.4
38,781.7
38,447.9
≈ TZS 38.4T
100.0%
▲ +12.2%
Source: Bank of Tanzania, Table 2.7.5 Government Domestic Debt by Borrowing Instruments. March 2026.
Domestic Debt by Holder March 2026
Commercial banks and pension funds together hold more than half of Tanzania's domestic debt, reflecting the role of government paper in institutional investment portfolios.
Source: Bank of Tanzania, Table 2.7.6 Government Domestic Debt by Creditor Category.
Domestic Debt Servicing (March 2026): The government serviced TZS 518.2 billion in domestic debt in March 2026, comprising TZS 219.9 billion in principal repayments and TZS 298.3 billion in interest payments. Against new issuances of TZS 419 billion, domestic debt stock decreased marginally. The interest component (TZS 298.3 billion per month on domestic debt alone) is significant — equivalent to TZS 3.58 trillion per year in domestic interest obligations.
👥
Debt Per Tanzanian — Detailed Breakdown
What TZS 1,884,695 per citizen means in context, and how it has grown over time
Per-Citizen Debt Breakdown — March 2026
69 Million Population Basis
Debt Component
Total (TZS Billion)
Per Citizen (TZS)
Per Citizen (USD)
Family of 5 (TZS)
🌍 External Debt (all)
91,603.7
1,327,590
USD 515
6,637,950
— Central Govt External
75,774.3
1,098,177
USD 426
5,490,884
— Private Sector External
15,829.3
229,410
USD 89
1,147,052
🏦 Domestic Debt (all)
38,447.9
557,216
USD 216
2,786,081
— Treasury Bonds
31,609.9
458,114
USD 178
2,290,570
— Overdraft (BOT)
5,126.8
74,302
USD 29
371,510
— Treasury Bills
1,575.3
22,831
USD 9
114,155
🇹🇿 TOTAL NATIONAL DEBT
130,051.6
TZS 1,884,806
USD 731
TZS 9,424,031
Calculations: Total TZS debt ÷ 69,000,000 population. External converted at TZS 2,577.4/USD. Source: BOT MER April 2026.
Debt Per Citizen Growth Over Time (TZS Thousands)
Estimated per-citizen figures use population estimates for each year. March 2026: 69M population confirmed basis.
What Does TZS 1.88 Million Per Citizen Mean? Context & Comparisons
Putting the per-citizen debt burden in the context of Tanzania's income, wage levels, and what this represents in practical terms.
Comparison Benchmark
Value (TZS)
Debt as Multiple
Interpretation
👤 Per-Citizen Debt Share
TZS 1,884,695
1.0× baseline
~USD 731 per person
💼 Tanzania GDP per capita (2024)
TZS ~3,234,900
0.58× GDP/capita
Debt = ~58% of annual income
🏙️ Urban Minimum Wage (est.)
TZS ~400,000/month
4.7 months wages
Nearly 5 months of min. wage
🌾 Rural Household Income (est.)
TZS ~150,000/month
12.6 months income
Over 1 year's rural income
🚌 Annual Transport Cost (Dar)
TZS ~360,000
5.2× annual transport
Over 5 years of commuting
🏫 Primary School Fees (private)
TZS ~300,000/year
6.3 years of fees
Six years of school per child
👨👩👧👦 Household of 5 Citizens
TZS 9,423,475
2.9× annual min-wage
Nearly TZS 9.4 million per family
Per-capita GDP from BOT Table A1 (2024 figure; 2025 not yet available). Other comparisons estimated from public data. All TZS figures approximate.
Important Context — Debt Is Not Immediately "Owed by Citizens": The per-citizen figure is an economic metaphor used widely in public finance to make national debt tangible. Tanzania's debt is owed by the government — not individuals. Citizens bear the fiscal burden indirectly through: (1) taxes paid to service debt interest and principal, (2) reduced public spending if debt servicing crowds out other expenditure, and (3) potential future tax increases if the debt trajectory is not managed sustainably. Tanzania's debt-to-GDP ratio has increased but remains within the range managed by regional peers.
⚖️
Debt Sustainability Assessment
Is Tanzania's debt trajectory manageable? Key ratios, risks, and resilience factors
Key Debt Sustainability Indicators March 2026
External Debt / GDP
~44%
Estimated (GDP ~USD 80B)
◆ Below 55% DSF threshold
Budget Balance / GDP
-3.0%
2024/25 actual
▼ Moderate deficit
Debt Service / Revenue
~25%
Estimated 2025/26
◆ Approaching pressure zone
FX Reserves Cover
4.7 months
Above 4-month EAC benchmark
✓ Adequate buffer
Sustainability Indicator
Current Status
Warning Threshold
Assessment
Total Debt / GDP ratio
~63%
70% (IMF benchmark)
✓ Below threshold
External Debt / GDP
~44%
55% (DSF for Tanzania)
✓ Below threshold
Debt Service / Exports
~17%
20% (DSF threshold)
✓ Within range
Budget Deficit / GDP
-3.0%
-5.0% (EAC benchmark)
✓ Manageable
FX Reserves Coverage
4.7 months
4.0 months (EAC/SADC)
✓ Above benchmark
Interest Arrears Trend
Declining
Should be zero
⚠ Still present
Commercial Debt Share
35.8% of external
Should be minimised
⚠ Watch closely
USD Concentration
66.7% of external
High FX risk
⚠ Currency risk
Thresholds: IMF/World Bank Debt Sustainability Framework (DSF) for low-income countries. GDP estimate based on BOT and NBS data.
TICGL Sustainability Assessment: Tanzania's debt trajectory is currently manageable but warrants careful monitoring. The key strengths are: (1) debt-to-GDP ratios remain below IMF/World Bank thresholds, (2) multilateral creditors with concessional terms dominate the external portfolio, (3) foreign exchange reserves are adequate, and (4) gold export revenues provide a natural hedge against oil import pressures. The primary risks are: (1) the 35.8% commercial debt share carries refinancing risk, (2) interest arrears persist in both the bilateral and commercial creditor categories, (3) USD concentration creates TZS depreciation vulnerability, and (4) the monthly debt service obligation of TZS 518.2 billion in domestic interest and principal alone is a significant fiscal drag. The per-citizen debt of TZS 1.88 million has doubled since 2018, underscoring the need for robust revenue mobilisation, export diversification, and continued fiscal discipline to prevent debt service from crowding out critical social and infrastructure spending.
Data Sources, Methodology & Attribution
All debt data is sourced from the Bank of Tanzania Monthly Economic Review, April 2026 (Section 2.7 Debt Developments, covering March 2026 data). Tables referenced: Table A10 (National Debt Developments), Table 2.7.1 (External Debt by Borrower), Table 2.7.2 (External Debt by Creditors), Table 2.7.3 (Use of Funds), Table 2.7.4 (Currency Composition), Table 2.7.5 (Domestic Debt by Instrument), Table 2.7.6 (Domestic Debt by Creditor). Currency Conversion: USD external debt converted at TZS 2,577.4/USD (end-of-period March 2026 exchange rate, from Table A10). Per-Citizen Calculation: Total TZS debt (external + domestic) ÷ 69,000,000 population. Population: 69 million as specified. Analysis, commentary, and per-citizen calculations by TICGL Economic Research, May 2026. This page is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice.
Tanzania Government Domestic Debt 2026 | Creditor Category Analysis | TICGL
Bank of Tanzania · April 2026 Monthly Economic Review · TICGL Analysis
Tanzania Government Domestic Debt: Creditor Structure & Portfolio Analysis — March 2026
Tanzania's domestic debt stock reached TZS 38,447.9 billion at the end of March 2026.
Commercial banks and pension funds together hold over 55% of the total. Treasury bonds dominate
the instrument mix at 82.2%. This page provides a full breakdown by creditor category, instrument type,
historical trend, and debt servicing dynamics.
Reference Date: End March 2026
Source: Ministry of Finance & Bank of Tanzania
Currency: TZS Billions unless stated
Total Domestic Debt Stock
TZS 38.4T
▼ −0.87% MoM
vs TZS 38.78T in Feb 2026
Commercial Banks (Largest Holder)
TZS 10.93T
▲ Share: 28.4%
Highest absolute creditor
Pension Funds
TZS 10.46T
▲ Share: 27.2%
Stable long-term holding
Bank of Tanzania
TZS 6.94T
▼ Share: 18.0%
Down from 19.3% in Feb
Treasury Bonds Share
82.2%
▲ Dominant instrument
TZS 31.61T outstanding
Debt Servicing (Mar 2026)
TZS 518.2B
Principal + Interest
TZS 219.9B principal · TZS 298.3B interest
Section 1 of 4
Domestic Debt by Creditor Category: Who Holds Tanzania's Government Debt?
As at end March 2026, the government's domestic debt stock (excluding liquidity papers) stood at
TZS 38,447.9 billion. The portfolio is held across six creditor categories, with
commercial banks and pension funds jointly accounting for more than half of the total outstanding.
The Bank of Tanzania's share declined from 19.3% in February to 18.0% in March, reflecting
net repayments during the month.
Commercial Banks
TZS 10,925.8B
28.4% of total
Mar-25: TZS 9,948.4B (29.0%)
Pension Funds
TZS 10,463.9B
27.2% of total
Mar-25: TZS 9,091.5B (26.5%)
Bank of Tanzania
TZS 6,935.5B
18.0% of total
Mar-25: TZS 6,883.9B (20.1%)
Others
TZS 7,337.0B
19.1% of total
Mar-25: TZS 5,930.3B (17.3%)
Insurance
TZS 1,997.1B
5.2% of total
Mar-25: TZS 1,845.5B (5.4%)
BOT Special Funds
TZS 788.4B
2.1% of total
Mar-25: TZS 555.7B (1.6%)
Creditor Share — Visual Breakdown at March 2026
Proportion of total domestic debt stock (TZS 38,447.9 billion)
Commercial Banks
28.4%
10,925.8B
Pension Funds
27.2%
10,463.9B
Others
19.1%
7,337.0B
Bank of Tanzania
18.0%
6,935.5B
Insurance
5.2%
1,997.1B
BOT Special Funds
2.1%
788.4B
Creditor Share — March 2026
% of total domestic debt (excl. liquidity papers)
Creditor Category Share Shift
Mar-25 vs Feb-26 vs Mar-26 (TZS Billions, stacked)
Government Domestic Debt by Creditor Category — Detailed Comparison
TZS Billions · Excluding liquidity papers
Creditor Category
Mar-25 (TZS B)
Share %
Feb-26 (TZS B)
Share %
Mar-26p (TZS B)
Share %
YoY Change
Commercial Banks
9,948.4
29.0%
10,834.3
27.9%
10,925.8
28.4%
+9.8%
Pension Funds
9,091.5
26.5%
10,463.9
27.0%
10,463.9
27.2%
+15.1%
Others*
5,930.3
17.3%
7,273.8
18.8%
7,337.0
19.1%
+23.7%
Bank of Tanzania
6,883.9
20.1%
7,468.4
19.3%
6,935.5
18.0%
+0.7%
Insurance
1,845.5
5.4%
1,983.5
5.1%
1,997.1
5.2%
+8.2%
BOT Special Funds
555.7
1.6%
757.8
2.0%
788.4
2.1%
+41.8%
Total Domestic Debt Stock
34,255.4
100%
38,781.7
100%
38,447.9
100%
+12.2%
Source: Ministry of Finance and Bank of Tanzania. *'Others' includes public institutions, private companies, individuals, and non-residents. p = provisional data.
Key Insight — Pension Fund Dominance Growing: Pension funds increased their holdings by
15.1% year-on-year to TZS 10,463.9 billion, maintaining a 27.2% share. Together with commercial banks,
these two creditor categories control 55.6% of all domestic debt — signalling a deep, institutionally
anchored domestic investor base. This structural depth reduces rollover risk and anchors demand for
long-term government bonds.
Tanzania's domestic debt portfolio is heavily concentrated in long-term instruments.
Treasury bonds accounted for 82.2% (TZS 31,609.9 billion) of the total stock at March 2026,
up from 79.5% a year earlier — reflecting the government's deliberate strategy to extend
the maturity profile of domestic borrowing and reduce refinancing risk.
Treasury bills represent just 4.1% of the total.
Treasury Bonds
TZS 31.61T
82.2% share · ▲ from 79.5%
Non-Securitised Debt
TZS 5.13T
13.3% share · Overdraft facility
Treasury Bills
TZS 1.58T
4.1% share · Short-term
Government Stocks
TZS 135.7B
0.4% share · Legacy instruments
Tax Certificates
TZS 0.1B
Negligible · 0.0% share
Government Domestic Debt by Borrowing Instrument
TZS Billions · Excluding liquidity papers
Instrument
Mar-25 (TZS B)
Share %
Feb-26 (TZS B)
Share %
Mar-26p (TZS B)
Share %
YoY Change
Government Securities
29,313.2
85.6%
33,122.0
85.4%
33,321.1
86.7%
+13.7%
Treasury Bills
1,888.8
5.5%
1,653.0
4.3%
1,575.3
4.1%
−16.6%
Government Stocks
187.1
0.5%
135.7
0.4%
135.7
0.4%
−27.5%
Government Bonds
27,237.2
79.5%
31,333.2
80.8%
31,609.9
82.2%
+16.1%
Tax Certificates
0.1
0.0%
0.1
0.0%
0.1
0.0%
Flat
Non-Securitised Debt
4,942.2
14.4%
5,659.7
14.6%
5,126.8
13.3%
+3.7%
Overdraft
4,923.9
14.4%
5,659.6
14.6%
5,126.8
13.3%
+4.1%
Other Liabilities
18.4
0.1%
0.0
0.0%
0.0
0.0%
−100%
Total Domestic Debt (excl. liquidity papers)
34,255.4
100%
38,781.7
100%
38,447.9
100%
+12.2%
Source: Ministry of Finance and Bank of Tanzania. p = provisional. 'Other liabilities' include commercial loans and duty drawback.
Instrument Composition — March 2026
Share of domestic debt by instrument type
Bonds vs Bills vs Non-Securitised Trend
TZS Billions — Three-period comparison
✔ Favourable Maturity Profile: The sustained shift from short-term Treasury bills (4.1% of total,
down from 5.5% a year ago) toward long-duration Treasury bonds (82.2%, up from 79.5%) reflects a deliberate
debt management strategy to lengthen the portfolio's average maturity. This reduces rollover concentration risk
and aligns debt servicing outflows with long-term revenue capacity.
Tanzania's domestic debt stock has grown nearly 2.7× in eight years — from TZS 14,158.6 billion
in March 2018 to TZS 38,447.9 billion in March 2026. Growth accelerated notably from 2022 onward, driven by
increased government financing needs. The MoM decline of 0.87% observed in March 2026
(from TZS 38,781.7 billion in February) reflects net maturities exceeding new issuances during the month.
Government Domestic Debt Stock — Historical Trend
TZS Billions · March of each year (2018–2026)
Source: Ministry of Finance and Bank of Tanzania.
Year-on-Year Growth Rate of Domestic Debt Stock
Percent change — March to March
Monthly Government Securities Issued for Financing Purposes
TZS Billions — Treasury Bills vs Treasury Bonds · Mar 2025 to Mar 2026
Source: Bank of Tanzania.
⚠ Issuance Volatility: Monthly government securities issuance has been highly variable.
August 2025 saw a peak of TZS 1,480.7 billion in bond issuances, while December 2025 and January 2026
recorded much lower new financing. In March 2026, the government raised TZS 419 billion in total —
TZS 276.7 billion via Treasury bonds and TZS 142.3 billion via Treasury bills.
Section 4 of 4
Domestic Debt Servicing: Obligations and Coverage in March 2026
Total domestic debt servicing in March 2026 amounted to TZS 518.2 billion,
comprising TZS 219.9 billion in principal repayments and TZS 298.3 billion in interest payments.
Interest payments exceeded principal repayments — a reflection of the portfolio's long-duration bias,
where coupon obligations on the large stock of outstanding Treasury bonds constitute the dominant
servicing component.
Total Debt Service (Mar 26)
TZS 518.2B
Principal + Interest
Principal Repayments
TZS 219.9B
42.4% of total service
Interest Payments
TZS 298.3B
57.6% of total service
New Financing Raised
TZS 419.0B
Net financing = −TZS 99.2B
T-Bond Yield (2-year)
8.36%
Down from 10.05% in Jan-26
T-Bond Yield (20-year)
10.71%
Down from 12.02% in Jan-26
Monthly Securities Issuance vs Debt Service — Principal Repayments
TZS Billions · Mar 2025 to Mar 2026 · Principal repayments (bar) vs New T-bonds issued (line)
Treasury Bond Weighted Average Yields — Monthly Trend
Percent · Selected tenors · Mar 2025 to Mar 2026
Tenor
Mar-25
Apr-25
Jul-25
Sep-25
Oct-25
Dec-25
Jan-26
Feb-26
Mar-26
Change (Mar)
2-Year
12.55
12.08
12.17
12.17
10.05
10.05
10.05
10.05
8.36
▼ −169 bps
5-Year
13.14
13.14
13.18
12.48
12.48
10.54
10.54
10.54
10.54
Flat
7-Year
9.71
9.71
9.71
9.71
9.71
9.71
9.71
9.71
9.71
Flat
10-Year
14.08
14.26
13.74
13.74
12.45
12.45
11.30
11.30
11.30
Flat
15-Year
14.63
14.63
14.63
13.91
13.91
12.08
12.08
10.78
10.78
Flat
20-Year
15.28
15.11
14.50
13.55
13.55
12.02
12.02
12.02
10.71
▼ −131 bps
25-Year
15.84
15.84
14.80
13.19
13.19
13.19
13.19
11.99
11.99
Flat
Source: Bank of Tanzania. bps = basis points. A declining yield reflects improving investor confidence and easing monetary conditions.
Tanzania Government Bond Yield Curve
March 2025 vs March 2026 — Showing the significant downward shift across tenors
Yield Curve Insight: The bond yield curve has shifted materially downward over the past year.
The 2-year yield fell from 12.55% to 8.36% (a 419 basis-point drop), while the 20-year yield
declined from 15.28% to 10.71%. This reflects the easing of the Central Bank Rate (from 6.00% to
5.75%) and improved market confidence. Lower long-end yields reduce the government's future interest burden
on new bond issuances — a significant fiscal tailwind for debt sustainability.
Data-driven examination revealing critical fiscal sustainability challenges as national debt grows 1.74 times faster than GDP
📊Published: February 2026
🔍Research by TICGL Economic Team
📈28 Data Tables • 15+ Charts
+65.8%
Debt Growth
+38.0%
GDP Growth
49.59%
Debt-to-GDP Ratio
1.74x
Debt vs GDP Growth Rate
Executive Summary
Critical Findings on Tanzania's Fiscal Trajectory
This comprehensive report analyzes Tanzania's national debt crisis from 2020 to 2025, integrating multiple data sources to provide a complete picture of the country's fiscal trajectory. The analysis reveals a troubling trend: Tanzania's national debt has grown 65.8% over the period while GDP expanded by only 38.0%, resulting in a debt-to-GDP ratio increase from 41.27% to 49.59%.
🚨 Critical Alert
This represents debt accumulation at nearly 1.74 times the rate of economic growth, raising serious sustainability concerns despite official reassurances. Tanzania is approaching the IMF's 55% danger threshold, with just 5.4 percentage points of buffer remaining.
Key Finding
Over the five-year period, national debt increased by USD 17.21 billion while GDP grew by USD 24.07 billion. The debt-to-GDP ratio climbed 8.32 percentage points, from 41.27% to 49.59%. From 2021-2024, debt consistently grew faster than GDP every single year, with the differential ranging from 3.8 to 7.0 percentage points.
Debt Growth vs GDP Growth: A Widening Gap (2020-2025)
⚠️ Sustainability Threshold Alert
At 49.59%, Tanzania is just 5.4 percentage points below the IMF's 55% sustainability threshold for developing economies. The country is also approaching the critical 18% debt service-to-revenue threshold, currently at 14.5%.
Section 1
Macroeconomic Overview (2020-2025)
This section examines the fundamental economic indicators that frame Tanzania's debt sustainability challenge, including GDP growth, debt accumulation patterns, and the critical debt-to-GDP ratio trajectory.
Table 1: GDP, National Debt, and Debt-to-GDP Ratio (2020-2025)
Year
GDP (USD Billion)
National Debt (USD Billion)
Debt-to-GDP Ratio (%)
Debt Change (YoY)
GDP Change (YoY)
2020
$63.37
$26.15
41.27%
—
—
2021
$67.84
$29.85
44.00%
+14.2%
+7.1%
2022
$72.95
$33.92
46.50%
+13.6%
+7.5%
2023
$76.66
$37.29
48.64%
+9.9%
+5.1%
2024
$80.14
$39.61
49.43%
+6.2%
+4.5%
2025
$87.44
$43.36
49.59%
+8.5%
+9.1%
Total Change
+$24.07B (+38.0%)
+$17.21B (+65.8%)
+8.32 pp
—
—
Sources: Statista (2020-2023), SECO Economic Report (2023-2024), IMF (2025 projections)
Debt-to-GDP Ratio Trajectory: Approaching IMF Threshold
Critical Observation
From 2021-2024, debt consistently grew faster than GDP every single year, with the differential ranging from 3.8 to 7.0 percentage points. Only in 2025 did GDP growth (9.1%) marginally exceed debt growth (8.5%), potentially signaling a turning point—but this remains a projection subject to economic conditions.
Table 2: Annual Growth Rates and Comparative Analysis (2020-2025)
Year
GDP Growth (%)
Debt Growth (%)
Growth Differential
Sustainability Trend
2020-2021
+7.1%
+14.2%
-7.1 pp
⚠️ Deteriorating
2021-2022
+7.5%
+13.6%
-6.1 pp
⚠️ Deteriorating
2022-2023
+5.1%
+9.9%
-4.8 pp
⚠️ Deteriorating
2023-2024
+4.5%
+6.2%
-1.7 pp
⚠️ Deteriorating
2024-2025
+9.1%
+8.5%
+0.6 pp
✓ Improving
Annual Growth Rate Differential: Debt vs GDP
Table 3: Reconciliation of Debt Figures (USD Billions)
Year
Calculated Debt (Debt-to-GDP Method)
Official Reported Debt (BoT/MoF)
Variance
Variance %
2020
$26.15
$31.50
-$5.35
-17.0%
2021
$29.85
$34.20
-$4.35
-12.7%
2022
$33.92
$36.80
-$2.88
-7.8%
2023
$37.29
$38.91
-$1.62
-4.2%
2024
$39.61
$42.57
-$2.96
-6.9%
2025 (Mid-year)
$43.36
$42.58
+$0.78
+1.8%
2025 (Dec - Latest)
$43.36
$50.85
-$7.49
-14.7%
🚨 Late 2025 Borrowing Surge Detected
The December 2025 figure of TZS 134.9 trillion (USD 50.85 billion) suggests substantial additional borrowing in the second half of 2025 that exceeds IMF projections. This represents a $7.49 billion variance from calculated debt levels, indicating potential acceleration in debt accumulation not captured in mid-year estimates.
Important Note: The variance between calculated debt (from debt-to-GDP ratios applied to GDP) and officially reported debt figures reflects different measurement methodologies, reporting periods (fiscal vs calendar year), exchange rate fluctuations, and the inclusion/exclusion of certain debt categories.
Section 2
Comprehensive Debt Stock Analysis
A detailed examination of Tanzania's total debt stock using multiple methodologies, including the critical breakdown between external and domestic debt components.
Table 4: Total National Debt Stock - Multiple Sources (2020-2025)
Year
Method A: Debt-to-GDP × GDP
Method B: Official Reports (BoT/MoF)
Method C: TZS Converted
Best Estimate (Weighted Avg)
2020
$26.15B
$31.50B
$29.80B
$29.15B
2021
$29.85B
$34.20B
$32.50B
$32.18B
2022
$33.92B
$36.80B
$35.90B
$35.54B
2023
$37.29B
$38.91B
$38.20B
$38.13B
2024
$39.61B
$42.57B
$41.80B
$41.33B
2025 (Mid-year)
$43.36B
$42.58B
$43.00B
$42.98B
2025 (December)
$43.36B
$50.85B
$50.85B
$48.35B
Methodology Notes:
Method A: Debt-to-GDP ratio × Nominal GDP (consistent with IMF/World Bank methodology)
Method B: Official government and Bank of Tanzania reports
Method C: TZS figures converted at prevailing exchange rates
Best Estimate: Weighted average favoring official reports when available
Total Debt Stock: Multiple Measurement Methods
Table 5: External vs Domestic Debt Breakdown (2020-2025)
Year
Total Debt (USD Billion)
External Debt (USD Billion)
External %
Domestic Debt (USD Billion)
Domestic %
2020
$31.50
$25.58
81.2%
$5.92
18.8%
2021
$34.20
$27.14
79.4%
$7.06
20.6%
2022
$36.80
$33.60
91.3%
$3.20
8.7%
2023
$38.91
$28.88
74.2%
$10.03
25.8%
2024
$42.57
$29.27
68.7%
$13.30
31.3%
2025 (Mid-year)
$42.58
$28.00
65.8%
$14.58
34.2%
2025 (December)
$50.85
$37.31
73.4%
$13.54
26.6%
Debt Composition: External vs Domestic (2020-2025)
Critical Trends Identified
External Debt Volatility: External debt peaked at 91.3% in 2022, then dropped to 65.8% by mid-2025, before surging back to 73.4% by year-end
Domestic Debt Expansion: Domestic debt more than doubled from USD 5.92B (2020) to USD 13.30B (2024), reflecting increased internal borrowing
Structural Shift (2022-2023): A major composition change occurred, with domestic debt jumping from 8.7% to 25.8% in one year
Late 2025 Borrowing Surge: The Q4 2025 external debt increase of USD 8.27 billion suggests significant new external borrowing
🚨 Q4 2025 External Debt Spike
External debt increased from $28.00B (mid-2025) to $37.31B (December 2025) — a massive $9.31 billion increase in just six months. This represents a 33.3% surge in external obligations, raising concerns about the sustainability of new borrowing commitments and their terms.
This section examines the escalating burden of debt service obligations and their impact on Tanzania's fiscal capacity, revealing alarming trends in the proportion of government revenue consumed by debt repayment.
Table 6: Comprehensive Debt Service Obligations (2020-2025)
Year
Debt Service (TZS Trillion)
Debt Service (USD Billion)
YoY Growth (%)
As % of GDP
Per Capita (USD)
2020
TZS 2.30
$1.00
—
1.58%
$16.95
2021
TZS 3.15
$1.36
+37.0%
2.01%
$22.58
2022
TZS 4.20
$1.79
+33.3%
2.45%
$29.09
2023
TZS 5.80
$2.30
+38.1%
3.00%
$36.51
2024
TZS 7.20
$2.88
+24.1%
3.59%
$44.44
2025
TZS 8.30
$3.12
+15.3%
3.57%
$46.86
Total Growth
+TZS 6.0T (+259%)
+$2.12B (+212%)
—
+1.99 pp
+$29.91
Sources: Bank of Tanzania, Ministry of Finance Budget Documents, IMF Article IV Consultations
🚨 Alarming Escalation
Debt service has grown from TZS 2.3 trillion to TZS 8.3 trillion (259% increase) while GDP grew only 38%, meaning debt service is consuming an increasingly large share of economic output and government revenue. Per capita debt service burden has nearly tripled from $16.95 to $46.86.
Debt Service Escalation (2020-2025)
Table 7: Debt Service as Percentage of Government Revenue (2020-2025)
Year
Government Revenue (TZS Trillion)
Debt Service (TZS Trillion)
Debt Service / Revenue (%)
Revenue Growth (%)
Risk Level
2020
TZS 16.50
TZS 2.30
13.9%
—
🟡 Moderate
2021
TZS 19.80
TZS 3.15
15.9%
+20.0%
🟡 Moderate
2022
TZS 24.20
TZS 4.20
17.4%
+22.2%
🔴 Approaching Threshold
2023
TZS 31.20
TZS 5.80
18.6%
+28.9%
🔴 Exceeded Threshold
2024
TZS 39.50
TZS 7.20
18.2%
+26.6%
🔴 Exceeded Threshold
2025
TZS 57.20
TZS 8.30
14.5%
+44.8%
🟡 Below Threshold
Total Change
+TZS 40.7T (+246.7%)
+TZS 6.0T (+259%)
+0.6 pp
+164.7%
—
⚠️ Critical Threshold Alert
At 14.5% in 2025, Tanzania is approaching the 18% danger threshold established by the IMF and World Bank for debt service sustainability in low-income countries. The country exceeded this threshold in 2023 (18.6%) and 2024 (18.2%) before dropping below due to exceptional revenue growth. Beyond 18%, countries typically face significant fiscal stress and reduced capacity for essential service delivery.
Debt Service Burden: Percentage of Government Revenue
Positive Development
Government revenue has grown exceptionally well, increasing by 246.7% from TZS 16.50 trillion to TZS 57.20 trillion. This impressive revenue mobilization effort has helped Tanzania stay below the critical 18% threshold in 2025, despite the massive increase in debt service obligations. However, the sustainability of this revenue growth rate is uncertain.
Revenue Mobilization vs Debt Service Growth
Section 4
Currency Composition and Exchange Rate Risk
This section analyzes Tanzania's exposure to foreign exchange risk, examining the currency composition of external debt and quantifying the impact of shilling depreciation on debt sustainability.
Table 8: Detailed Currency Composition of External Debt (2025)
Currency
Amount (USD Billion)
Percentage of External Debt
Typical Interest Rate Range
Primary Creditors
USD
$25.29
67.8%
2.5% - 7.0%
World Bank, IMF, Commercial Banks
CNY (Chinese Yuan)
$7.09
19.0%
2.0% - 3.5%
China Exim Bank, ICBC
EUR (Euro)
$2.61
7.0%
1.5% - 3.0%
EIB, AfDB, EU Institutions
SDR (Special Drawing Rights)
$1.49
4.0%
0.5% - 1.5%
IMF
JPY (Japanese Yen)
$0.75
2.0%
0.5% - 2.0%
JICA, Japanese Banks
Other Currencies
$0.08
0.2%
Varies
Various bilateral creditors
Total External Debt
$37.31
100.0%
—
—
Sources: Bank of Tanzania Foreign Exchange Reports, IMF Currency Composition Database
🚨 Dangerous Currency Concentration
With 67.8% of external debt denominated in USD, Tanzania faces severe exchange rate vulnerability. Any depreciation of the Tanzanian Shilling against the dollar directly increases the local currency cost of debt service, creating a vicious cycle where currency weakness exacerbates fiscal pressure.
The 8.2% shilling depreciation in 2023 alone increased the local currency cost of servicing USD-denominated debt by TZS 5.49 trillion, equivalent to approximately USD 2.18 billion. The 2025 depreciation of 6.1% added another TZS 5.71 trillion in costs. This demonstrates how currency risk compounds debt sustainability challenges and can rapidly erode fiscal gains.
TZS/USD Exchange Rate and Depreciation Impact
Table 10: Currency Risk Stress Test Scenarios (2025)
Scenario
TZS Depreciation vs USD (%)
New Debt Value (TZS Trillion)
Implied Debt-to-GDP Ratio (%)
Risk Assessment
Current (Baseline)
0%
TZS 134.9
49.59%
🟢 Current State
Mild Shock
-5%
TZS 141.6
52.06%
🟡 Manageable
Moderate Shock
-10%
TZS 148.4
54.54%
🟡 Approaching Limit
Severe Shock
-15%
TZS 155.1
57.01%
🔴 Exceeded IMF Threshold
Crisis Shock
-20%
TZS 161.9
59.49%
🔴 High Distress Risk
Extreme Crisis
-30%
TZS 175.4
64.45%
🔴 Debt Crisis
🚨 Stress Test Warning
Under a severe 20% depreciation scenario (not unprecedented given historical volatility), Tanzania's debt-to-GDP ratio would spike from 49.59% to approximately 59.5%, exceeding the 55% IMF sustainability threshold for developing economies. A 15% depreciation would push the ratio to 57.01%, still above the critical threshold.
Currency Risk Stress Test: Impact on Debt-to-GDP Ratio
Section 5
Sectoral Debt Allocation and Project Analysis
This section examines how Tanzania's borrowed funds have been allocated across different economic sectors and evaluates the return on investment for major debt-financed infrastructure projects.
Table 11: External Debt by Sector with ROI Analysis (2025)
Sector
Debt Amount (USD Billion)
Percentage (%)
Expected ROI Timeline (Years)
Revenue Generation
Transport & Infrastructure
$14.92
40.0%
15-25
🟡 Long-term
Energy & Power
$5.60
15.0%
10-15
✓ Revenue-generating
Budget Support
$4.85
13.0%
—
✗ Non-productive
Water & Sanitation
$3.36
9.0%
8-12
🟡 Indirect benefits
Agriculture
$2.99
8.0%
5-10
✓ Productive
Education & Health
$2.61
7.0%
—
🟡 Social returns
ICT & Technology
$1.49
4.0%
5-8
✓ High potential
Tourism & Natural Resources
$0.75
2.0%
3-7
✓ Revenue-generating
Other Sectors
$0.74
2.0%
Varies
Mixed
Total External Debt
$37.31
100.0%
—
—
⚠️ Concerning Pattern
Over 40% of external debt (Transport + Education/Health + Budget Support) is allocated to sectors with either very long ROI timelines or no direct revenue generation. Budget Support alone accounts for 13% ($4.85B) of external debt, representing pure consumption spending that doesn't contribute to economic growth or debt repayment capacity.
External Debt Allocation by Sector (2025)
Table 12: Major Infrastructure Project Debt Performance (2020-2025)
Project
Total Debt (USD Billion)
Annual Debt Service (USD M)
Actual Revenue (USD M/year)
Revenue vs Target (%)
Performance
Standard Gauge Railway (SGR)
$11.20
$780
$390
50%
🔴 Major Underperformance
Julius Nyerere Hydropower
$2.90
$210
$245
117%
✓ Exceeding Target
Dar es Salaam BRT
$0.68
$52
$38
73%
🟡 Below Target
Bagamoyo Port (Suspended)
$0.45
$35
$0
0%
🔴 No Revenue
National Fiber Optic Backbone
$0.42
$32
$41
128%
✓ Exceeding Target
Kinyerezi Gas Power Plant
$1.20
$95
$102
107%
✓ Meeting Target
Airport Modernization Program
$0.85
$68
$55
81%
🟡 Below Target
Total Major Projects
$17.70
$1,272
$871
68.5%
—
🚨 Critical Issue - SGR Project
The flagship Standard Gauge Railway has consumed over USD 11 billion in debt but is operating at only 50% of revenue projections. With annual debt service of $780 million but generating only $390 million in revenue, the SGR creates a $390 million annual fiscal drain. This raises serious questions about the project's ability to generate sufficient returns to service its associated debt.
Major Infrastructure Projects: Revenue vs Target Performance
Mixed Performance
While some projects like the Julius Nyerere Hydropower (+17%) and National Fiber Optic Backbone (+28%) exceed revenue targets, the overall portfolio performs at only 68.5% of projections. The SGR's massive underperformance creates a $401 million annual shortfall ($780M debt service - $390M revenue) that must be covered by general tax revenue.
Project Sustainability: Annual Debt Service vs Revenue Generation
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This section examines who Tanzania owes money to and the terms of borrowing, revealing a concerning shift from concessional (low-interest) multilateral loans toward expensive commercial debt.
Table 13: External Debt by Creditor Type (2025)
Creditor Type
Amount (USD Billion)
Percentage (%)
Avg. Interest Rate (%)
Avg. Maturity (Years)
Terms
Multilateral (Concessional)
$15.68
42.0%
1.2%
25-30
✓ Favorable
Bilateral (Concessional)
$9.70
26.0%
2.5%
15-20
✓ Favorable
Commercial (Banks & Bonds)
$11.94
32.0%
6.8%
5-10
⚠️ Expensive
Total External Debt
$37.31
100.0%
3.5%
13-18
—
Concessional Total
$25.38
68.0%
1.7%
20-25
✓ Sustainable
Sources: Bank of Tanzania, IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis, Ministry of Finance
⚠️ Growing Commercial Debt Exposure
While 68% of debt remains concessional with favorable terms, the 32% commercial debt share ($11.94B) carries interest rates averaging 6.8% — nearly 4 times higher than concessional loans. This shift increases annual debt service costs by approximately $500-600 million compared to if these funds were borrowed on concessional terms.
Commercial debt has nearly tripled from $4.09B to $11.94B (192% increase), while its share of total external debt doubled from 16% to 32%. The weighted average interest rate has increased from 2.1% to 3.5%, with new commercial borrowing in 2022/23 reaching 30.5% of disbursements at interest rates of 6-7%, significantly eroding debt sustainability.
Shift from Concessional to Commercial Debt (2020-2025)
Interest Rate Impact
The shift to commercial borrowing increases annual interest costs by approximately $400-500 million compared to concessional alternatives. If the $11.94B commercial debt were instead borrowed at concessional rates (1.7% vs 6.8%), Tanzania would save approximately $609 million annually in interest payments alone.
This section applies the IMF/World Bank debt sustainability framework to assess Tanzania's capacity to service its debt without requiring debt relief or accumulating arrears.
Table 15: IMF/World Bank Debt Sustainability Indicators (2020-2025)
Indicator
2020
2023
2025
IMF Threshold
Risk Status
Debt-to-GDP Ratio (%)
41.3%
48.6%
49.6%
55%
🟡 Moderate
Debt-to-Revenue Ratio (%)
191%
125%
84%
200%
🟢 Low
Debt Service-to-Revenue (%)
13.9%
18.6%
14.5%
18%
🟡 Moderate
Debt Service-to-Exports (%)
14.2%
19.8%
21.5%
15%
🔴 High
Debt Service-to-GDP (%)
1.58%
3.00%
4.10%
3.5%
🟡 Moderate
External Debt-to-GDP (%)
40.4%
37.7%
42.7%
40%
🟡 Moderate
Reserves-to-Debt Service (Months)
7.2
5.8
5.0
4.0
🟢 Low
Short-term Debt (%)
8.5%
12.3%
15.8%
20%
🟢 Low
⚠️ Overall Assessment
Tanzania shows mixed signals — while solvency indicators (debt-to-GDP, debt-to-revenue) remain within safe bounds, liquidity pressures are building, particularly in debt service-to-exports ratio (21.5% vs 15% threshold) and debt service-to-GDP (4.10% vs 3.5% threshold). This suggests Tanzania can sustain its debt long-term but faces near-term cash flow pressures.
Key Sustainability Indicators vs IMF Thresholds (2025)
Table 16: Debt Distress Probability Analysis (2020-2025)
Year
IMF Risk Rating
Probability of Debt Distress
Composite Risk Score
Assessment
2020
Moderate
15-20%
3.2 / 10
🟢 Low Risk
2021
Moderate
18-23%
3.8 / 10
🟢 Low Risk
2022
Moderate
22-28%
4.5 / 10
🟡 Moderate Risk
2023
Moderate-High
28-35%
5.3 / 10
🟡 Moderate Risk
2024
Moderate-High
30-38%
5.7 / 10
🟡 Moderate-High Risk
2025
Moderate
25-32%
5.1 / 10
🟡 Moderate Risk
Source: IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis, World Bank IDA Risk Assessments
Risk Trajectory
The probability of debt distress has increased from 15-20% in 2020 to 25-32% in 2025. While this remains in "moderate" territory, the upward trend is concerning. The slight improvement from 2024 to 2025 reflects strong revenue growth, but sustainability depends on maintaining this performance.
Probability of Debt Distress (2020-2025)
Section 8
Drivers of Debt Accumulation
This section identifies what Tanzania has borrowed money for and analyzes whether these investments are generating sufficient returns to justify the debt burden.
Table 17: Breakdown of Debt Growth by Purpose (2020-2025)
Purpose Category
New Debt (USD Billion)
% of Total New Debt
Expected ROI Timeline
Economic Impact
Infrastructure (Roads, Rail, Ports)
$8.95
52.0%
15-25 years
🟡 Long-term
Budget Support & Deficit Financing
$3.75
21.8%
None
✗ Non-productive
Energy & Power Generation
$1.72
10.0%
10-15 years
✓ Revenue-generating
Social Services (Health, Education)
$1.03
6.0%
20+ years
🟡 Indirect benefits
Agriculture & Rural Development
$0.86
5.0%
5-10 years
✓ Productive
Water & Sanitation
$0.52
3.0%
8-12 years
🟡 Indirect benefits
ICT & Digital Infrastructure
$0.34
2.0%
5-8 years
✓ High potential
Other
$0.04
0.2%
Varies
Mixed
Total New Debt (2020-2025)
$17.21
100.0%
—
—
Key Finding
Over half of new debt (52%) has financed infrastructure projects, particularly the SGR, but returns on these investments have been disappointing. Combined with 21.8% for budget support (non-productive debt), nearly three-quarters of new borrowing either underperforms or generates no direct revenue. Only 17% went to clearly productive sectors like energy, agriculture, and ICT.
New Debt Allocation by Purpose (2020-2025)
Table 18: Debt Growth versus Economic Fundamentals (2020-2025)
Metric
2020 Value
2025 Value
Absolute Change
% Growth
Sustainability
National Debt (Best Estimate)
$29.15B
$48.35B
+$19.20B
+65.9%
⚠️ Rapid
GDP (Nominal)
$63.37B
$87.44B
+$24.07B
+38.0%
✓ Moderate
Government Revenue
TZS 16.50T
TZS 57.20T
+TZS 40.7T
+246.7%
✓ Excellent
Tax Revenue (% of GDP)
11.1%
21.2%
+10.1 pp
+91.0%
✓ Strong
Debt Service Payments
$1.00B
$3.12B
+$2.12B
+212.0%
⚠️ Alarming
Exports (Goods & Services)
$7.04B
$10.85B
+$3.81B
+54.1%
✓ Good
Foreign Reserves (Months of Imports)
5.4
5.0
-0.4
-7.4%
✓ Adequate
FDI Inflows
$1.08B
$1.45B
+$0.37B
+34.3%
🟡 Moderate
⚠️ Critical Observation
While tax revenue has grown impressively (+246.7%), this has been outpaced by debt service growth (+212.0%), creating a fiscal squeeze. The gap between debt growth (65.9%) and GDP growth (38.0%) represents a 27.9 percentage point sustainability deficit. Tanzania is borrowing faster than the economy is growing, which is unsustainable in the long term.
Comparative Growth Rates: Debt vs Economic Fundamentals (2020-2025)
Positive Development
Tanzania's revenue mobilization effort deserves recognition. Tax revenue as a percentage of GDP increased from 11.1% to 21.2% — one of the fastest improvements in Sub-Saharan Africa. This strong revenue performance is the primary factor keeping debt service manageable despite rapid debt accumulation.
Section 9
Comparative Regional Analysis
This section benchmarks Tanzania's debt situation against East African Community (EAC) partners and broader Sub-Saharan African countries to provide regional context.
Table 19: East African Debt Comparison (2025)
Country
Debt-to-GDP Ratio (%)
External Debt (USD Billion)
Debt Service / Revenue (%)
5-Year Debt Growth (%)
Risk Level
Burundi
72.8%
$2.45
24.5%
+89.3%
🔴 High Distress
Kenya
68.4%
$42.80
31.2%
+78.5%
🔴 High Risk
Rwanda
73.1%
$5.85
22.8%
+95.2%
🔴 High Risk
South Sudan
45.2%
$1.92
8.5%
+12.4%
🟡 Moderate
Tanzania
49.6%
$37.31
14.5%
+65.9%
🟡 Moderate Risk
Uganda
52.3%
$18.40
19.6%
+71.8%
🟡 Moderate-High
EAC Average
61.5%
—
20.2%
+68.8%
🟡 Moderate-High
Sources: IMF World Economic Outlook, World Bank IDS Database, African Development Bank
Relative Position
Tanzania performs better than the EAC average on most indicators, with a lower debt-to-GDP ratio (49.6% vs 61.5%) and debt service burden (14.5% vs 20.2%). However, Tanzania's rapid debt accumulation rate — fastest in the region from 2021-2025 alongside Rwanda — is concerning and suggests convergence toward regional stress levels if current trends continue.
East African Community: Debt-to-GDP Ratios (2025)
Table 20: Sub-Saharan Africa Debt Comparison (2025)
Country/Region
Debt-to-GDP Ratio (%)
Debt Service / Exports (%)
Annual Debt Growth (2020-25)
IMF Classification
Ghana
88.7%
42.3%
+15.2%
🔴 In Distress
Zambia
123.4%
38.9%
+8.5%
🔴 In Default
Ethiopia
51.8%
28.4%
+9.8%
🔴 High Risk
Kenya
68.4%
27.8%
+12.6%
🔴 High Risk
Tanzania
49.6%
21.5%
+10.6%
🟡 Moderate Risk
Senegal
71.2%
25.4%
+11.8%
🔴 High Risk
Nigeria
37.3%
18.2%
+7.2%
🟢 Low Risk
Botswana
21.5%
4.8%
+3.1%
🟢 Low Risk
SSA Average (Excl. South Africa)
58.9%
23.4%
+9.8%
🟡 Moderate-High
📊 Regional Context
Tanzania's debt growth pace of $6.25 billion annually under President Samia—nearly three times faster than under Magufuli—mirrors the regional pattern but at an accelerated rate. The country's debt-to-GDP ratio (49.6%) is below the SSA average (58.9%), but the rapid accumulation trajectory suggests potential convergence with distressed peers like Kenya and Ethiopia within 3-5 years if trends continue.
Sub-Saharan Africa: Debt-to-GDP Comparison (2025)
Acceleration Analysis
Tanzania's annual debt accumulation rate accelerated significantly after 2020. Under President Magufuli (2015-2021), debt grew at approximately $2.2 billion per year. Under President Samia Suluhu Hassan (2021-2025), this increased to $6.25 billion per year — a 184% acceleration. While some acceleration is justified by large infrastructure projects, the pace exceeds GDP growth and raises sustainability concerns.
Annual Debt Accumulation: Magufuli vs Samia Era
Section 10
Economic Growth Analysis and Sustainability Outlook
This section examines the quality and composition of Tanzania's economic growth, evaluating whether it's sufficient to sustainably manage the growing debt burden.
Table 21: Sectoral Contribution to GDP Growth (2020-2025)
Sector
2020 Share of GDP (%)
2025 Share of GDP (%)
Avg. Annual Growth (%)
Contribution to Total Growth
Debt Relationship
Agriculture
27.8%
24.5%
4.2%
18.5%
✓ Minimal debt
Services
42.1%
45.3%
6.8%
42.3%
✓ Self-sustaining
Industry & Manufacturing
22.5%
21.8%
5.1%
19.8%
🟡 Moderate debt
Transport & Logistics
3.8%
4.2%
7.2%
6.5%
⚠️ Heavy debt (SGR)
Construction
3.8%
4.2%
8.5%
6.8%
🟡 Debt-driven
Other
—
—
4.8%
6.1%
Mixed
Critical Finding
Sectors receiving the most debt-funded investment (Transport, Construction) show strong growth, but the return on investment timeline is long (15-25 years), creating a temporal mismatch between debt service obligations (immediate) and revenue generation (delayed). Services sector drives 42.3% of growth with minimal debt dependence.
Sectoral Contribution to GDP Growth (2020-2025)
Table 22: GDP Growth Decomposition (2020-2025)
Component
2020 Value (% of GDP)
2025 Value (% of GDP)
Change (pp)
Contribution to GDP Growth (%)
Private Consumption
68.5%
65.2%
-3.3 pp
38.5%
Government Spending
15.8%
18.4%
+2.6 pp
22.8%
Public Investment
8.2%
10.5%
+2.3 pp
17.2%
Private Investment
18.5%
19.8%
+1.3 pp
15.4%
Net Exports
-11.0%
-13.9%
-2.9 pp
6.1%
⚠️ Debt-Financed Growth Warning
Approximately 40% of GDP growth (Government Spending 22.8% + Public Investment 17.2%) has been financed by debt accumulation, raising questions about growth sustainability if borrowing slows. This creates dependency on continued access to external financing.
Sources of GDP Growth: Debt-Financed vs Organic (2020-2025)
Table 23: Future Debt Projections and Scenarios (2026-2030)
Scenario
2026 Debt-to-GDP
2028 Debt-to-GDP
2030 Debt-to-GDP
Probability
Optimistic Scenario
6.5% GDP growth, fiscal consolidation, concessional borrowing only
48.2%
45.8%
43.5%
20%
Baseline/IMF Scenario
5.5-6% GDP growth, gradual fiscal consolidation, mixed borrowing
50.1%
51.2%
50.8%
45%
Pessimistic Scenario
4.5% GDP growth, limited reforms, continued commercial borrowing
52.8%
56.4%
59.2%
25%
Crisis Scenario
3% GDP growth, major TZS depreciation, refinancing difficulties
55.2%
62.8%
68.5%
10%
📊 IMF Baseline Projection
The IMF baseline scenario anticipates the debt-to-GDP ratio stabilizing around 50-52% through 2030, but this assumes: (1) Real GDP growth of 5.5-6.0% annually, (2) Fiscal deficit reduction to 2.5% of GDP, (3) No major external shocks, (4) Successful completion of revenue mobilization reforms, and (5) Limited new commercial borrowing.
Debt-to-GDP Projections: Alternative Scenarios (2025-2030)
Risk Assessment
The pessimistic scenario has a 25-30% probability given current trends, while the crisis scenario has a 10-15% probability. The baseline scenario (45% probability) requires disciplined execution of reforms and favorable external conditions. Without corrective action, Tanzania could cross the 55% threshold by 2028.
Section 11
Critical Risk Factors and Vulnerabilities
This section identifies and quantifies the key risks that could trigger debt distress or derail Tanzania's fiscal sustainability.
Table 24: Comprehensive Risk Matrix (2025)
Risk Factor
Likelihood (1-10)
Impact (1-10)
Overall Risk Score
Mitigation Status
SGR Revenue Underperformance
9
9
9.8
🔴 Critical
TZS Depreciation (>10% annually)
7
9
9.2
🔴 High
Commercial Debt Refinancing Risk
6
8
8.5
🟡 Moderate
Global Interest Rate Spike
5
7
7.8
🟡 Limited
Commodity Price Shock (Gold/Tourism)
6
7
7.5
🟡 Partial
Contingent Liabilities Materialization
4
8
7.2
🟡 Limited
Revenue Mobilization Stalling
5
7
6.8
✓ Good
Political Instability/Governance
3
8
6.2
✓ Strong
Climate Shocks (Drought/Floods)
6
5
5.5
🟡 Emerging
Regional Conflict/Security Issues
4
6
5.0
✓ Stable
🚨 Highest Risk Identified
SGR underperformance (9.8/10) and TZS depreciation (9.2/10) represent the most immediate threats to debt sustainability. The SGR operating at 50% of revenue targets creates a $390M annual fiscal drain, while a 10-15% shilling depreciation would increase debt-to-GDP ratio by 5-7 percentage points, potentially pushing it above the 55% threshold.
Critical Risk Factors: Likelihood vs Impact Matrix
Table 25: Contingent Liabilities and Hidden Debt Risks (2025)
Category
Estimated Value (USD Billion)
Materialization Probability
Expected Value (USD Billion)
Status
State-Owned Enterprises (SOE) Guarantees
$4.2 - $6.5
30-40%
$1.5 - $2.6
🟡 Monitoring
Public-Private Partnership (PPP) Obligations
$2.8 - $4.2
20-30%
$0.6 - $1.3
✓ Low risk
Pension Liabilities (Unfunded)
$1.5 - $2.0
50-60%
$0.8 - $1.2
🟡 Emerging
Legal Claims & Arbitration
$0.8 - $1.2
40-50%
$0.3 - $0.6
🟡 Active cases
Off-Budget Infrastructure Commitments
$0.5 - $1.0
60-70%
$0.3 - $0.7
🟡 Probable
Total Contingent Liabilities
$9.8 - $14.9
—
$3.5 - $6.4
—
Potential Debt-to-GDP Impact
+11.2% - 17.0%
—
+4.0% - 7.3%
⚠️ Significant
⚠️ Hidden Debt Risk
If even half of these contingent liabilities materialize, Tanzania's debt-to-GDP ratio could spike from 49.59% to 55-57%, exceeding the IMF sustainability threshold. State-owned enterprises pose the largest risk, with several (TANESCO, ATCL, Tanzania Railways) requiring periodic bailouts.
Contingent Liabilities Breakdown by Category
Section 12
Policy Responses and Reform Measures
This section evaluates the government's debt management reforms and provides comprehensive policy recommendations to restore fiscal sustainability.
Table 26: Government Debt Management Reforms (2020-2025)
Reform Area
Key Actions Taken
Implementation Status (%)
Impact on Sustainability
Effectiveness
Revenue Mobilization
Tax digitalization, base broadening, TRA reforms
85%
High (+)
✓ Excellent
Expenditure Control
Budget ceilings, spending reviews, IFMIS
60%
Medium (+)
🟡 Moderate
Debt Management Strategy
Medium-term debt strategy, borrowing limits
55%
Medium (+)
🟡 Improving
SOE Restructuring
Commercialization plans, governance reforms
40%
Low (+)
🟡 Limited
Project Appraisal
Cost-benefit analysis requirements
45%
Medium (+)
🟡 Partial
Domestic Resource Mobilization
Bond market development, retail instruments
50%
Low (+)
🟡 Emerging
Positive Development
Tax revenue has increased significantly, growing from 11.1% of GDP in 2020 to 21.2% in 2025 — one of the fastest improvements in Sub-Saharan Africa. This strong revenue performance through digitalization, base-broadening, and improved tax administration is the primary factor keeping debt service manageable despite rapid debt accumulation.
Debt Management Reform Implementation Status
Table 27: IMF Program Conditionalities and Compliance (2023-2025)
Conditionality
Target
2025 Actual
Compliance
Fiscal Deficit (% of GDP)
≤ 3.0%
2.8%
✓ Met
Tax Revenue (% of GDP)
≥ 18.0%
21.2%
✓ Exceeded
Non-Concessional Borrowing (USD Billion)
≤ $2.5B
$3.8B
✗ Exceeded
Foreign Reserves (Months of Imports)
≥ 4.5
5.0
✓ Met
Domestic Arrears Clearance
100%
72%
🟡 Partial
SOE Transparency (Quarterly Reports)
100%
75%
🟡 Partial
⚠️ Overall Compliance Assessment
Tanzania has met 2 of 6 targets fully, exceeded expectations on revenue mobilization, but failed to control non-concessional borrowing. The $3.8B in non-concessional borrowing (vs $2.5B target) represents a 52% breach of the IMF limit and explains the rapid accumulation of expensive commercial debt.
Comprehensive Policy Recommendations
🚨 IMMEDIATE ACTIONS (2025-2026)
Impose Strict Borrowing Ceiling: Limit new debt to 3% of GDP annually, prioritizing concessional sources
SGR Restructuring: Renegotiate terms with China, explore PPP models, aggressive marketing to increase utilization from 50% to 75%
Commercial Debt Moratorium: Halt new commercial borrowing until debt-to-GDP falls below 45%
Currency Hedging: Implement forex hedging for 30-40% of USD debt to mitigate depreciation risk
⚡ MEDIUM-TERM REFORMS (2026-2028)
Revenue Target: Maintain tax revenue at 18-20% of GDP through continued digitalization and base-broadening
SOE Consolidation: Reduce contingent liabilities by commercializing or closing underperforming state enterprises
Debt-for-Climate Swaps: Negotiate with bilateral creditors to convert $2-3B debt into climate adaptation investments
Export Promotion: Diversify beyond gold and tourism; invest in value-added manufacturing and services
🏗️ STRUCTURAL CHANGES (2028-2030)
Fiscal Rule: Legislate debt ceiling at 50% of GDP with automatic triggers for corrective action
Project Evaluation: Mandatory cost-benefit analysis for all debt-financed projects >USD 100 million
Debt Management Unit: Strengthen DMFAS capacity with real-time monitoring and scenario modeling
Regional Integration: Leverage EAC single market to boost intra-regional trade and reduce import dependency
Section 13
Synthesis and Conclusions
Table 28: Summary of Key Findings
Category
Key Finding
Quantitative Measure
Assessment
Debt Accumulation Rate
Debt growing 1.74x faster than GDP
+65.8% vs +38.0%
🔴 Unsustainable
Debt-to-GDP Ratio
Approaching IMF threshold
49.59% (55% threshold)
🟡 Concerning
Debt Service Burden
Near critical threshold
14.5% of revenue (18% limit)
🟡 Manageable
Commercial Debt Share
Doubled in 5 years
32% (+192% growth)
🔴 Dangerous
Currency Concentration
Heavy USD exposure
67.8% in USD
🔴 High Risk
SGR Performance
Major underperformance
50% of revenue targets
🔴 Critical
Revenue Mobilization
Exceptional improvement
21.2% of GDP (+10.1 pp)
✓ Excellent
Foreign Reserves
Adequate coverage
5.0 months of imports
✓ Healthy
Regional Comparison
Better than EAC average
49.6% vs 61.5%
✓ Competitive
Debt Distress Risk
Increased but moderate
25-32% probability
🟡 Moderate
CORE CONCLUSION
YES, Tanzania's national debt has grown significantly faster than its economy from 2020 to 2025:
Debt increased by 65.8% (from USD 26.15B to USD 43.36B using GDP-based calculations) or by 52.8% (from USD 31.50B to USD 48.12B using official reports)
GDP grew by 38.0% (from USD 63.37B to USD 87.44B)
The gap: Debt grew at 1.74 times the rate of GDP expansion using the conservative estimate, or 1.39 times using official figures
Debt-to-GDP ratio increased from 41.27% to 49.59%, an 8.32 percentage point rise
Annual pattern: Debt outpaced GDP growth in every year from 2021-2024, with 2025 showing the first reversal (GDP +9.1% vs Debt +8.5%)
CRITICAL SUSTAINABILITY CONCERNS
🔴 HIGH RISK FACTORS
Rapid Accumulation Under Current Administration: Debt growth accelerated to $6.25 billion annually under President Samia, nearly three times the pace under President Magufuli
Dangerous Currency Concentration: 67.8% of external debt is in USD, creating severe exchange rate vulnerability
Commercial Debt Explosion: Commercial borrowing doubled from 16% to 32% of external debt, with interest rates 2-3x higher than concessional loans
Major Project Underperformance: The SGR, consuming USD 11+ billion in debt, operates at only 50% of revenue targets
Escalating Debt Service: Payments increased 212% (from USD 1.0B to USD 3.12B) while GDP grew only 38%
Exchange Rate Shocks: The 8% 2023 depreciation alone added TZS 4.34 trillion in costs; 2024's 10% decline added TZS 7.15 trillion more
🟡 MODERATE RISK FACTORS
Approaching IMF Threshold: At 49.59%, Tanzania is just 5.4 percentage points below the 55% danger zone
Debt Service Pressure: At 14.5% of revenue, approaching the 18% critical threshold
Contingent Liabilities: USD 9-14 billion in off-balance-sheet obligations could add 10-15 percentage points to debt ratio
Limited Export Base: Debt service now consumes 21.5% of exports (vs 15% threshold), constraining foreign exchange
🟢 POSITIVE MITIGATING FACTORS
Strong Revenue Growth: Tax revenue surged from 11.1% to 21.2% of GDP, among the best in Africa
Adequate Reserves: 5.0 months of import cover exceeds the 4-month minimum
GDP Growth Recovery: 2025's 9.1% growth (if sustained) could stabilize the ratio
Predominantly Concessional: 68% of debt remains at favorable terms, though declining
Regional Comparison: Tanzania's 49.59% ratio is better than Kenya (68.4%), Rwanda (73.1%), and the EAC average (61.5%)
FORWARD OUTLOOK: THREE SCENARIOS
Scenario 1: Sustainable Path
Probability: 35%
Requires: 6%+ annual GDP growth, fiscal deficit <2.5%, shift back to concessional loans, SGR revenue improvement
Consequence: Economic disruption, austerity, potential IMF bailout
FINAL ASSESSMENT
Tanzania's debt situation as of 2025 can be characterized as "sustainable but deteriorating rapidly". While current indicators remain within acceptable bounds, the trajectory is deeply concerning:
✅ STRENGTHS
Current ratio (49.59%) is below the 55% threshold — but the margin is shrinking
Foreign reserves are adequate at 5.0 months of imports
Revenue mobilization is improving dramatically
❌ WEAKNESSES
Debt is growing 1.74x faster than GDP — unsustainable pace
Heavy USD exposure (67.8%) creates severe currency risk
Debt service burden rising to dangerous levels (21.5% of exports)
Major infrastructure projects underperforming — cannot service their debt
Shift to expensive commercial debt undermining sustainability
The critical question is not whether Tanzania's debt is currently unsustainable, but whether the country can reverse course before crossing the point of no return. The 2025 slowdown in debt growth (first time GDP outpaced debt) offers a narrow window of opportunity for corrective action.
Without immediate policy intervention, Tanzania is on track to join Kenya, Rwanda, and Ghana in the ranks of African countries facing debt distress by 2027-2028. With decisive reforms, the country can stabilize its debt burden and continue its development trajectory.
The choice is clear, and the time to act is now.
DATA SOURCES AND METHODOLOGY
Primary Sources:
International Monetary Fund (IMF): World Economic Outlook, Article IV Consultations, Debt Sustainability Analyses
World Bank: International Debt Statistics (IDS), World Development Indicators
Bank of Tanzania: Monthly Economic Reviews, Foreign Exchange Reports, Statistical Bulletins
Tanzania Investment Centre and Consulting Group Limited (TICGL): Economic Research Reports
Ministry of Finance and Planning: Budget Speeches, Debt Management Reports
Statista: Economic indicators and forecasts
SECO Economic Reports: Swiss State Secretariat for Economic Affairs country analyses
African Development Bank: African Economic Outlook
Methodology:
GDP figures: Calendar year nominal GDP in current USD from Statista (2020-2022), SECO (2023-2024), IMF (2025 projection)
Debt calculations: Method A uses (Debt-to-GDP ratio ÷ 100) × GDP; Method B uses official government reports
Exchange rates: Annual average TZS/USD from Bank of Tanzania
Growth rates: Year-on-year percentage change calculated as ((Current/Previous)-1)×100
Projections: Based on IMF baseline scenario with adjustments for latest available data
Report Compiled: February 2026 (using data through December 2025)
This analysis represents the most comprehensive data-driven assessment of Tanzania's debt burden available, integrating multiple authoritative sources to provide a complete picture of the country's fiscal trajectory from 2020 to 2025.
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