TICGL

| Economic Consulting Group

TICGL | Economic Consulting Group
Overview of Interest Rate Developments in Tanzania - November 2025 | TICGL

Overview of Interest Rate Developments in Tanzania - November 2025

📅 Published: November 2025
🏦 Source: Bank of Tanzania
📊 Analysis by TICGL

Introduction

Tanzania's interest rate environment in November 2025 demonstrated remarkable stability while supporting sustained economic growth. The financial landscape remained balanced with modest upward adjustments reflecting healthy market dynamics rather than stress signals.

Overall Lending Rate
15.27%
▲ 0.08 pp from October
12-Month Deposit Rate
10.02%
▲ 0.81 pp from October
Interest Rate Spread
5.51%
▼ 0.77 pp from October
Private Credit Growth
18.1%
Strong year-on-year

1. Lending Interest Rates Analysis

Lending rates experienced marginal increases in November 2025, reflecting robust credit demand alongside the 18.1% private-sector lending growth. The adjustments remained modest, ensuring borrowing costs stayed supportive of investment and economic expansion.

Lending CategoryNov 2024Oct 2025Nov 2025Change
Overall Lending Rate15.67%15.19%15.27%+0.08 pp
Short-Term Lending (≤1 year)15.56%15.50%15.53%+0.03 pp
Negotiated Rate (Prime)12.77%12.40%12.61%+0.21 pp

Marginal Increase

The 8 basis point rise in overall lending rates signals healthy credit demand without creating barriers to investment or business expansion.

Prime Customer Advantage

Negotiated rates at 12.61% remain 2.66 percentage points below the market average, demonstrating preferential pricing for creditworthy borrowers.

Growth Support

Stable lending rates continue supporting the robust 18.1% private-sector credit growth, fueling economic activity across sectors.

2. Deposit Interest Rates Dynamics

Deposit rates showed more pronounced increases in November 2025, particularly for time deposits. This reflects intensified competition among banks for stable, long-term funding sources despite overall ample system liquidity.

Deposit CategoryNov 2024Oct 2025Nov 2025Change
Savings Deposit Rate2.69%2.93%2.88%-0.05 pp
Overall Time Deposit8.18%8.36%8.54%+0.18 pp
12-Month Deposit Rate9.63%9.21%10.02%+0.81 pp
Negotiated Deposit Rate10.14%11.22%11.67%+0.45 pp

Attractive Returns for Savers

The sharp 81 basis point jump in 12-month deposit rates to 10.02% significantly improves returns, encouraging financial savings mobilization.

Bank Competition

Rising time and negotiated deposit rates signal banks are competing actively for stable funding despite adequate system liquidity.

Liquidity Preference

Savings rates remained relatively flat, consistent with their high liquidity and transactional nature versus term deposits.

3. Interest Rate Spread: Improved Banking Efficiency

The narrowing of the short-term interest rate spread represents one of November's most significant developments, indicating enhanced banking sector efficiency and improved monetary policy transmission.

PeriodInterest Rate SpreadChangeInterpretation
November 20245.93%-Baseline
October 20256.28%+0.35 ppTemporary widening
November 20255.51%-0.77 ppSignificant improvement

What the Narrowing Spread Signals

  • Enhanced Efficiency: Banks are operating more efficiently in channeling funds from savers to borrowers
  • Better Pass-Through: Lower funding costs are being partially transmitted to borrowers through reduced lending rates
  • Competitive Pressure: Increased competition is compressing margins and benefiting both savers and borrowers
  • Financial Deepening: Improved intermediation supports broader financial sector development and economic growth

4. Monetary Policy Context and Alignment

Interest rate movements in November 2025 occurred within a well-anchored monetary policy framework, demonstrating effective transmission from the Bank of Tanzania's policy stance to market rates.

IndicatorValuePolicy Significance
Central Bank Rate (CBR)5.75%Accommodative stance anchoring market rates
7-Day IBCM Rate (Average)6.15%Within policy corridor, effective transmission
Inflation Rate3.4%Well within 3-5% target range
Private Sector Credit Growth18.1%Strong lending supporting economic expansion

Key Policy Insights

Effective Transmission

Market rates adjusted in line with monetary policy without destabilizing inflation, confirming the Bank of Tanzania's control over financial conditions.

Growth-Inflation Balance

The combination of low inflation (3.4%) and strong credit growth (18.1%) demonstrates successful policy calibration supporting growth without overheating.

Accommodative Stance

The 5.75% policy rate remains supportive, with ample room for adjustment if economic conditions change, providing policy flexibility.

5. Comparative Analysis: Lending vs. Deposit Rate Dynamics

AspectLending RatesDeposit Rates
Direction (Nov 2025)Slight increase (+0.08 pp)Moderate increase (+0.81 pp on 12-month)
Main DriverStrong credit demand (18.1% growth)Bank competition for stable deposits
Economic ImpactSupports investment and business expansionEncourages savings mobilization
Risk SignalContained - rates remain affordableLow - reflects healthy competition
Year-on-Year TrendDown 0.40 pp from Nov 2024Up 0.39 pp on 12-month from Nov 2024

6. Economic Implications and Forward Outlook

Immediate Implications

  • Credit Access: Marginal lending rate increases maintain affordable credit access for businesses and individuals, supporting continued economic expansion
  • Savings Mobilization: Higher deposit rates attract more savings into the formal banking system, strengthening banks' funding base for lending
  • Banking Sector Health: Narrower spreads combined with strong credit growth indicate a healthy, competitive banking environment
  • Investment Climate: Stable, predictable interest rate environment supports investor confidence and long-term planning

Medium-Term Outlook

Looking ahead to early 2026, the interest rate environment is expected to remain stable with several supporting factors:

  • Continued accommodative monetary policy stance given low inflation
  • Sustained private-sector credit demand supporting economic diversification
  • Competitive banking sector driving efficient intermediation
  • Stable macroeconomic fundamentals anchoring rate expectations

Key Risks to Monitor

  • Global interest rate movements affecting capital flows and exchange rate pressures
  • Potential inflation upticks requiring monetary policy adjustments
  • Changes in fiscal policy or government borrowing affecting liquidity conditions
  • External shocks impacting risk premiums and credit demand

Conclusion: A Balanced, Growth-Friendly Environment

The November 2025 interest rate data paints a picture of a mature, well-functioning financial system supporting Tanzania's economic ambitions. The modest rise in lending rates reflected healthy credit demand rather than monetary tightening, while the more pronounced increases in deposit rates rewarded savers and demonstrated vibrant bank competition.

Most significantly, the narrowing interest rate spread from 6.28% to 5.51% signals improved banking sector efficiency and effective monetary policy transmission. This development, combined with low inflation at 3.4%, stable policy rates, and robust 18.1% private-sector credit growth, creates an optimal environment for sustained economic expansion.

As Tanzania advances its development agenda, this balanced interest rate environment—affordable lending supporting investment, attractive deposit rates encouraging savings, and efficient intermediation facilitating resource allocation—provides a solid foundation for continued progress toward middle-income status and beyond.

Tanzania's labor market is undergoing a transformation as the country strives to shift more of its workforce into formal employment. As of 2023, Tanzania's workforce stands at approximately 36 million people, with 28% in formal employment and 72% in informal employment. These shifts reveal opportunities for economic growth but also underscore significant challenges in formalizing informal sector employment.

Employment Landscape in Tanzania

The formal sector employs around 10.07 million individuals, with most in the private sector (9.33 million), while the public sector supports approximately 741,967 jobs. In contrast, the informal sector is vast, with around 25.95 million workers, mostly engaged in agriculture, retail, and small-scale manufacturing. This segment lacks job security and benefits, making it vulnerable to economic shifts.

Public and Private Sector Employment

In the public sector, the government allocated TZS 11.3 trillion for wages in the 2023/2024 fiscal year, supporting roles in civil service, healthcare, and education. The private sector's role is crucial, employing nearly 93% of all formal workers and contributing significantly to the national tax base. With an annual salary average of TZS 15.25 million per formal sector employee, private businesses are a vital economic force.

Informal Employment Breakdown

The informal sector is dominated by agriculture and fishing, which accounts for 65-70% of informal jobs. Retail trade employs 10-15%, followed by manufacturing, crafts, and construction. Regions like Dar es Salaam and Mwanza showcase significant informal employment, with informal rates as high as 72%, reflecting regional dependence on informal job sectors.

Key Economic Indicators and Projections

  1. Unemployment Trends: Tanzania’s unemployment rate has shown gradual improvement, reducing from 9% in 2021 to 8.8% in 2023 and Projected to reach 8.1% in 2030, marking a positive trend in job creation.
  2. Economic Forecast for 2024-2030: Formal employment is expected to increase from 28% to 38% by 2030, driven by growth in sectors such as manufacturing, services, and agriculture. By 2030, approximately 15.8 million individuals are projected to be in formal employment, reducing informal employment rates to 62%.
  3. Projected Workforce and Sectoral Growth:
    • Manufacturing and Industry: 25% of the formal workforce
    • Services and Tourism: 22%
    • Modern Agriculture: 20%
    • Construction and Infrastructure: 15%
    • Technology and Digital Services: 10%

Challenges in Transitioning from Informal to Formal Employment

The shift from informal to formal employment involves obstacles, such as:

Recommendations

  1. Expand Formal Sector Support: Simplify business registration and tax compliance processes to encourage informal businesses to transition.
  2. Enhance Vocational Training: Align educational programs with formal sector needs to support skill development.
  3. Improve Social Protection: Extend social security coverage to include more formal workers, offering a safety net for transitioning employees.
  4. Sector-Specific Policies: Introduce targeted policies to modernize agriculture, foster innovation in urban sectors, and promote industry expansion.
  5. Invest in Infrastructure: Focus on digital and physical infrastructure to improve business efficiency and facilitate formal sector growth.

Conclusion

Tanzania’s employment dynamics are at a turning point, with formal employment showing steady growth. With careful planning, investment in infrastructure, and strategic policy reforms, Tanzania can continue to transition towards a more stable and secure labor market that benefits both the economy and the workforce.

crossmenu linkedin facebook pinterest youtube rss twitter instagram facebook-blank rss-blank linkedin-blank pinterest youtube twitter instagram