Tanzania Investment and Consultant Group Ltd

| Economic Research Centre

Tanzania’s inflation trends in May 2025 reflect a stable but nuanced economic environment. Headline inflation at 3.2% is well within regional and national targets, supported by declining non-food and core inflation (2.1%). However, rising food inflation (5.6%), driven by supply-demand imbalances and higher staple food prices, is a growing concern. The decline in energy inflation (6.1%) due to falling charcoal and petroleum prices has helped balance overall inflation. Government interventions, particularly the NFRA’s release of 47,238 tonnes of food and increased stocks to 509,990 tonnes, demonstrate effective supply-side management. In Zanzibar, lower headline inflation (4.2%) reflects improved food supply dynamics. Continued monetary policy vigilance, agricultural investment, and infrastructure improvements will be critical to sustaining inflation stability amidst global and domestic risks.

1. Headline Inflation

2. Food Inflation

3. Non-Food Inflation

4. Core Inflation

5. Energy, Fuel, and Utilities

6. Monthly Inflation Movements

7. Inflation by Key Categories (Annual, May 2025)

CategoryAnnual Inflation
Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages5.6%
Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas3.4%
Transport1.7%
Education3.2%
Services (Overall)1.0%
Goods (Overall)4.2%

8. Government Intervention

9. Zanzibar-Specific Inflation Trends

10. Broader Economic Context

11. Potential Risks and Outlook

Below is a structured table summarizing the key figures related to Tanzania’s inflation trends as of May 2025, drawn from the provided Bank of Tanzania. The table focuses on data from relevant sections and the narrative. The table is organized to clearly present the inflation metrics and related government interventions.

Tanzania Inflation Trends (May 2025) - Key Figures

CategoryKey Figures
Headline Inflation (Annual)3.2% in May 2025, unchanged from April 2025
Food Inflation (Annual)5.6% in May 2025, up from 5.3% in April 2025 and 1.6% in May 2024
Non-Food Inflation (Annual)Declined in May 2025 (exact rate not specified due to truncation)
Core Inflation (Annual)2.1% in May 2025, down from 2.2% in April 2025
Energy, Fuel, and Utilities Inflation (Annual)6.1% in May 2025, down from 7.3% in April 2025
Month-on-Month Inflation (Overall)0.1% in May 2025
Inflation by Key Categories (Annual, May 2025)
- Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages5.6%
- Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas3.4%
- Transport1.7%
- Education3.2%
- Services (Overall)1.0%
- Goods (Overall)4.2%
NFRA Food Stocks (May 2025)509,990 tonnes, up by 170,000 tonnes from May 2024
NFRA Food Released (May 2025)47,238 tonnes (to stabilize food prices)
Zanzibar Headline Inflation (Annual)4.2% in May 2025, down from 4.3% in April 2025 and 5.3% in May 2024
Zanzibar Food Inflation (Annual)3.9% in May 2025, down from 4.1% in April 2025 and 8.9% in May 2024
Zanzibar Month-on-Month Inflation1.0% in May 2025, up from 0% in April 2025

Notes

  1. Context:
    • Mainland Tanzania: The 3.2% headline inflation is within the SADC (3–7%) and EAC (≤8%) benchmarks, reflecting effective monetary policy (e.g., Central Bank Rate at 6%).
    • Food Inflation Drivers: The rise to 5.6% is due to supply-demand imbalances from heavy rains affecting transportation and higher prices for staples like maize and rice.
    • Zanzibar: The decline in inflation (4.2%) is driven by improved food supply, particularly for sugar, rice, and yellow cooking bananas.
    • NFRA Intervention: The release of 47,238 tonnes and increased stocks to 509,990 tonnes highlight proactive measures to curb food price volatility.

In May 2025, the Bank of Tanzania’s medium-term inflation target of 5% remains a cornerstone for fostering sustainable economic development, balancing price stability with robust growth. According to the "Monthey Economic Review," headline inflation stood at a stable 3.2% in April 2025, down from 3.3% in March, aligning well within the 5% target and regional benchmarks of the East African Community (EAC) and Southern African Development Community (SADC). However, challenges persist with food inflation rising to 5.3% due to weather-induced supply volatility, prompting the National Food Reserve Agency (NFRA) to bolster food stocks to 557,228 tonnes, up from 340,102 tonnes in April 2024, and release 29,834 tonnes of maize to stabilize markets. The Central Bank Rate (CBR) held steady at 6%, supporting economic activity while addressing global uncertainties, such as a projected 2.8% global growth rate and a 6.7% decline in crude oil prices. This introduction explores how these figures reflect Tanzania’s efforts to maintain economic stability and the challenges in sustaining the 5% inflation target.

Alignment with Sustainable Economic Development Objectives

The Bank of Tanzania’s monetary policy objectives, are to maintain price stability (defined as a low and stable inflation rate over time) and support economic growth. The 5% medium-term inflation target aligns with these goals in the following ways:

  1. Price Stability for Economic Predictability:
    • A stable inflation rate of around 5% fosters predictability in the economy, which is critical for sustainable development. Low and stable inflation ensures that businesses and consumers can plan investments and expenditures without the uncertainty of volatile price changes.
    • Figure: The document notes that headline inflation in April 2025 was 3.2%, well within the 5% target. This indicates that the Bank’s policy has been effective in maintaining inflation below the medium-term goal, creating a stable environment for economic planning.
    • By keeping inflation within the East African Community (EAC) and Southern African Development Community (SADC) benchmarks, Tanzania enhances its regional competitiveness, attracting investment and supporting trade integration, which are vital for long-term growth.
  2. Supporting Economic Growth:
    • The 5% target strikes a balance between controlling inflation and allowing room for economic expansion. Excessively low inflation could stifle growth by limiting monetary flexibility, while high inflation erodes purchasing power and deters investment.
    • Figure: The Monetary Policy Committee’s decision to maintain the Central Bank Rate (CBR) at 6% in April 2025 reflects a strategy to support economic activities while keeping inflation in check. The document states this decision aims to maintain inflation within the 3.5% medium-term target (short-term adjustment) and smooth exchange rate volatility, which supports growth by stabilizing the cost of imports and exports.
    • Stable inflation supports consumer purchasing power, as evidenced by the decline in core inflation to 2.2% in April 2025 from 3.9% in April 2024. This reduction in underlying price pressures enhances affordability, boosting consumption and economic activity.
  3. Food Security and Cost of Living:
    • Sustainable economic development requires affordable access to basic goods, particularly food. The 5% inflation target helps manage food inflation, which rose to 5.3% in April 2025, driven by high staple food crop prices due to weather-induced supply volatility. By aiming to keep overall inflation at 5%, the Bank mitigates the risk of runaway food prices, which could disproportionately affect low-income households.
    • Figure: The National Food Reserve Agency (NFRA) increased food stocks to 557,228 tonnes by April 2025 from 340,102 tonnes in April 2024, supporting food price stabilization. This aligns with the inflation target by ensuring supply-side interventions complement monetary policy, fostering inclusive growth.
  4. Exchange Rate Stability and External Sector:
    • A stable inflation rate supports exchange rate stability, which is crucial for Tanzania’s external sector performance and economic development. The document highlights the Bank’s focus on smoothing exchange rate volatility, which reduces uncertainty for exporters and importers.
    • Figure: The global economic context, including a 6.7% decline in crude oil prices, could ease pressure on Tanzania’s import bill, supporting the external sector. Maintaining inflation at 5% ensures that exchange rate stability translates into predictable costs for trade, fostering export-led growth and foreign exchange reserve accumulation (e.g., leveraging gold exports, with prices at USD 3,000 per troy ounce in April 2025).

Challenges in Maintaining the 5% Inflation Target

Despite the alignment with sustainable development, maintaining the 5% inflation target poses several challenges, as inferred from the document’s data and context:

  1. Food Price Volatility:
    • Challenge: Food inflation rose to 5.3% in April 2025, exceeding the 5% target. The document attributes this to weather-induced supply volatility and logistics challenges, which are difficult to control through monetary policy alone.
    • Impact: High food inflation, as a significant component of the Consumer Price Index (CPI), could push headline inflation above the target, undermining purchasing power and economic stability. For example, Non-core inflation (including food) rising to 5.7% in April 2025, indicating persistent pressure from volatile components.
    • Mitigation: The NFRA’s release of 29,834 tonnes of maize helps stabilize supply, but sustained weather disruptions could require structural agricultural investments beyond monetary policy.
  2. Global Economic Uncertainties:
    • Challenge: The document notes a projected global growth slowdown to 2.8% in 2025 and trade uncertainties due to U.S. tariffs. These external shocks could affect Tanzania’s export markets and commodity prices (e.g., tea and sugar prices rose by 8.2% and 3.9%, respectively), indirectly influencing domestic inflation.
    • Impact: External price pressures could make it challenging to maintain the 5% target, especially if import costs rise or export revenues decline, affecting the balance of payments and exchange rate stability.
    • Mitigation: Diversifying export markets and strengthening foreign exchange reserves (e.g., through gold exports) could help, but global volatility remains a significant risk.
  3. Energy and Fuel Price Fluctuations:
    • Challenge: Although energy, fuel, and utilities inflation eased to 7.3% in April 2025 from 9.3% in April 2024 month-on-month fluctuations (e.g., 2.4% in April 2024, 1.9% in April 2025). These fluctuations could destabilize inflation if global oil prices reverse their 6.7% decline.
    • Impact: Energy price spikes could increase production and transportation costs, pushing inflation above the 5% target and hindering industrial development.
    • Mitigation: The Bank’s data-dependent monetary policy adjustments can respond to such shocks, but reliance on global commodity markets limits control.
  4. Balancing Growth and Inflation Control:
    • Challenge: The document emphasizes the Bank’s dual mandate of price stability and supporting economic growth. Tightening monetary policy to curb inflation (e.g., raising the CBR above 6%) could slow economic activity, while loosening it risks inflation exceeding 5%.
    • Impact: For example, core inflation’s decline to 2.2% suggests room for accommodative policy, but rising non-core inflation (5.7% in April 2025, could force tighter measures, potentially constraining investment and growth.
    • Mitigation: The Bank’s use of instruments like repurchase agreements and the Lombard facility allows flexibility, but aligning these tools with growth objectives requires precise calibration.
  5. Structural Constraints:
    • Challenge: Logistics challenges and supply-side issues, as noted in the document, contribute to price volatility. These structural factors are not directly addressed by monetary policy, limiting the Bank’s ability to maintain the 5% target.
    • Impact: Persistent supply chain inefficiencies could keep food and non-core inflation elevated, as seen in the 5.3% food inflation rate, challenging the target and affecting living standards.
    • Mitigation: Complementary fiscal policies, such as infrastructure investments, are needed to address these constraints, but coordination between monetary and fiscal authorities can be complex.

Conclusion

The Bank of Tanzania’s 5% medium-term inflation target aligns with sustainable economic development by fostering price stability, supporting economic growth, ensuring food affordability, and stabilizing the external sector. Figures from the document, such as the 3.2% headline inflation, 2.2% core inflation, and 557,228 tonnes of NFRA food stocks in April 2025, demonstrate the Bank’s success in maintaining a stable economic environment conducive to development. However, challenges like food price volatility (5.3% food inflation), global economic uncertainties (2.8% global growth forecast), energy price fluctuations (7.3% energy inflation), and structural constraints could push inflation above the target, risking economic stability. Addressing these challenges requires a combination of monetary policy precision, supply-side interventions, and regional cooperation to ensure sustainable development.

The table includes critical data points on inflation, monetary policy, food security, and external sector performance, as these are central to understanding the alignment and challenges discussed in the previous response.

Table: Key Economic Figures for Tanzania (May 2025 Economic Review)

CategoryIndicatorValue
InflationHeadline Inflation (April 2025)3.2%
Headline Inflation (March 2025)3.3%
Headline Inflation (April 2024)3.1%
Food Inflation (April 2025)5.3%
Food Inflation (April 2024)1.4%
Core Inflation (April 2025)2.2%
Core Inflation (April 2024)3.9%
Energy, Fuel, and Utilities Inflation (April 2025)7.3%
Energy, Fuel, and Utilities Inflation (April 2024)9.3%
Non-Core Inflation (April 2025)5.7%
Monetary PolicyCentral Bank Rate (CBR, April 2025)6.0%
Medium-Term Inflation Target5.0%
Short-Term Inflation Target (April 2025)3.5%
Food SecurityNFRA Food Stocks (April 2025)557,228 tonnes
NFRA Food Stocks (April 2024)340,102 tonnes
Maize Released by NFRA (April 2025)29,834 tonnes
Global Economic ContextGlobal Growth Forecast (2025)2.8%
Global Growth Projection (January 2025)3.3%
Gold Price (April 2025)USD 3,000 per troy ounce
Gold Price (March 2025)USD 2,983.25 per troy ounce
Crude Oil Price Change (April 2025)-6.7%
Tea Price Increase (April 2025)8.2%
Sugar Price Increase (April 2025)3.9%

Notes on the Table

Tanzania’s inflation in March 2025, as detailed in the April 2025 Monthly Economic Review, shows an upward trend in headline inflation, driven primarily by rising food and energy prices, while core inflation has declined. Below, we outline the current inflation trends and their drivers, using specific figures from the document to provide clarity.

Headline Inflation Trend

Figure: Headline inflation rose to 3.3% in March 2025, up from 3.0% in March 2024.

Explanation:

Food Inflation Trend

Figure: Food inflation surged to 5.4% in March 2025, up from 1.4% in March 2024.

Explanation:

Core Inflation Trend

Figure: Core inflation decreased to 2.2% in March 2025 from 3.9% in March 2024.

Explanation:

Energy, Fuel, and Utilities Inflation Trend

Figure: Energy, fuel, and utilities inflation increased to 7.9% in March 2025 from 6.6% in March 2024.

Explanation:

Additional Context and Drivers

Conclusion

In March 2025, Tanzania’s headline inflation rose to 3.3% (from 3.0% in 2024), driven by surging food inflation (5.4%, up from 1.4%) and energy, fuel, and utilities inflation (7.9%, up from 6.6%). Food price increases, fueled by maize, rice, and bean costs and rain-related logistical challenges, and energy price hikes, driven by petroleum and wood charcoal, are the primary drivers. Core inflation’s decline to 2.2% (from 3.9%) moderate’s overall pressures, but unprocessed food’s growing contribution underscores its significance. The NFRA’s 587,062-tonne food stock and 32,598-tonne release helped contain food inflation, keeping headline inflation within EAC and SADC benchmarks.

Key Figures: Tanzania’s Inflation Trends and Drivers (March 2025)

IndicatorKey Figure
Headline Inflation3.3% (Mar 2025, up from 3.0% in Mar 2024)
Food Inflation5.4% (Mar 2025, up from 1.4% in Mar 2024)
Core Inflation2.2% (Mar 2025, down from 3.9% in Mar 2024)
Energy, Fuel, Utilities Inflation7.9% (Mar 2025, up from 6.6% in Mar 2024)
Food Reserves587,062 tonnes (Mar 2025, 32,598 tonnes released)
Fertilizer Price (Global)USD 615.13/tonne (+2%, Mar 2025)
Crude Oil Price (Global)USD 70.70/barrel (-4%, Mar 2025)
CPI Weight (Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages)26.1%
CPI Weight (Energy, Fuel, Utilities)5.7%
CPI Weight (Core)73.9%
Month-on-Month Food Inflation2.5% (Mar 2025)
Month-on-Month Energy Inflation2.9% (Mar 2025)
Central Bank Rate6% (unchanged, Mar 2025)

Notes:

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