Tanzania’s inflation trends in May 2025 reflect a stable but nuanced economic environment. Headline inflation at 3.2% is well within regional and national targets, supported by declining non-food and core inflation (2.1%). However, rising food inflation (5.6%), driven by supply-demand imbalances and higher staple food prices, is a growing concern. The decline in energy inflation (6.1%) due to falling charcoal and petroleum prices has helped balance overall inflation. Government interventions, particularly the NFRA’s release of 47,238 tonnes of food and increased stocks to 509,990 tonnes, demonstrate effective supply-side management. In Zanzibar, lower headline inflation (4.2%) reflects improved food supply dynamics. Continued monetary policy vigilance, agricultural investment, and infrastructure improvements will be critical to sustaining inflation stability amidst global and domestic risks.
1. Headline Inflation
Stability at 3.2%: The annual headline inflation rate in Tanzania remained steady at 3.2% in May 2025, consistent with April 2025. This stability reflects a balance between rising food prices and declining non-food inflation, keeping overall inflation within the national target range.
Regional Benchmark Compliance: The 3.2% rate aligns with the Southern African Development Community (SADC) target of 3–7% and the East African Community (EAC) benchmark of ≤8%. This positions Tanzania as a stable performer in the region, avoiding the hyperinflationary pressures seen in some neighboring economies.
Implications: The consistency in headline inflation suggests effective monetary policy management by the Bank of Tanzania (BoT), particularly in maintaining the Central Bank Rate (CBR) at 6% to shield the economy from external shocks like trade tariffs and geopolitical tensions. Stable inflation supports consumer purchasing power and investor confidence, critical for sustaining economic growth amidst global uncertainties.
2. Food Inflation
Increase to 5.6%: Food inflation rose to 5.6% in May 2025, up from 5.3% in April 2025 and significantly higher than 1.6% in May 2024. This increase is a key driver of inflationary pressure in Tanzania, given the high weight of food in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) basket.
Drivers of Food Inflation:
Supply-Demand Imbalances: Heavy rains disrupted transportation networks, hindering the distribution of agricultural goods. These likely caused temporary shortages, pushing up prices for staple foods.
Higher Staple Food Prices: Maize and rice, critical components of the Tanzanian diet, saw notable price increases. These staples are highly sensitive to supply chain disruptions and weather-related challenges, which are common in Tanzania’s rain-dependent agricultural sector.
Context and Implications: Food inflation’s rise reflects Tanzania’s vulnerability to climatic shocks, as agriculture remains a cornerstone of the economy. The significant jump from 1.6% in May 2024 to 5.6% in May 2025 underscores the impact of seasonal and logistical challenges. This trend could strain low-income households, for whom food constitutes a large share of expenditure, potentially increasing poverty risks if unchecked.
3. Non-Food Inflation
Decline in Non-Food Inflation: Non-food inflation decelerated in May 2025, helping to offset the rise in food inflation and stabilize headline inflation. The document does not specify the exact rate, but the decline indicates softer price pressures in categories like housing, transport, and services.
Implications: The reduction in non-food inflation suggests stable or declining costs in imported goods, manufactured products, or services, possibly due to favorable global commodity price trends (e.g., declining petroleum prices) or effective domestic policy measures. This balance is crucial for maintaining overall inflation within target ranges, as non-food items often have a lower weight in the CPI but are sensitive to external price shocks.
4. Core Inflation
Easing to 2.1%: Core inflation, which excludes volatile items like energy, utilities, and unprocessed food, dropped to 2.1% in May 2025 from 2.2% in April 2025. This measure reflects underlying inflationary pressures and is a key indicator for monetary policy.
Shifting Influence: The document notes that core inflation’s share in overall inflation is shrinking, while food inflation’s influence is rising. This shift highlights the growing dominance of food prices in driving Tanzania’s inflation dynamics.
Implications: The easing of core inflation suggests that non-volatile price pressures are well-contained, likely due to stable monetary conditions and the BoT’s efforts to keep the 7-day interbank rate within the 4–8% target band. However, the increasing influence of food inflation indicates that supply-side factors (e.g., agricultural productivity, weather) are becoming more critical to inflation management.
5. Energy, Fuel, and Utilities
Decline to 6.1%: Inflation in the energy, fuel, and utilities category fell to 6.1% in May 2025 from 7.3% in April 2025. This decline contributed significantly to moderating overall inflation.
Key Drivers:
Falling Wood Charcoal Prices: As a widely used energy source in Tanzania, particularly in rural areas, the decline in charcoal prices likely reflects improved supply or reduced demand pressures.
Global Petroleum Price Easing: The global commodity market saw softer crude oil prices due to weaker demand and increased OPEC+ output. This translated into lower prices for petrol, diesel, and kerosene in Tanzania, easing transport and household energy costs.
Context and Implications: The decline in energy inflation is a positive development for Tanzania, where fuel and energy costs directly impact transport and production expenses. Lower petroleum prices reduce input costs for businesses, potentially supporting economic activity. However, reliance on wood charcoal highlights the need for sustainable energy transitions to reduce environmental impacts and price volatility.
6. Monthly Inflation Movements
Month-on-Month Inflation at 0.1%: On a month-to-month basis, overall inflation was minimal at 0.1% in May 2025. This low rate indicates stable price movements in the short term, despite annual food inflation pressures.
Implications: The subdued month-on-month inflation suggests that price spikes are not accelerating rapidly, giving policymakers room to monitor trends without immediate intervention. However, the annual food inflation increases warrants vigilance to prevent broader price pressures.
7. Inflation by Key Categories (Annual, May 2025)
Category
Annual Inflation
Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages
5.6%
Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas
3.4%
Transport
1.7%
Education
3.2%
Services (Overall)
1.0%
Goods (Overall)
4.2%
Analysis:
Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages (5.6%): The highest inflation rate among categories, driven by supply chain disruptions and higher staple food prices. This category’s weight in the CPI basket makes it a dominant factor in headline inflation.
Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas (3.4%): Moderate inflation reflects stable utility costs, supported by declining energy prices. This category benefits from global petroleum trends and domestic infrastructure investments.
Transport (1.7%): Low inflation is likely due to falling fuel prices, which reduce transport costs. This is significant for Tanzania’s economy, where transport costs influence goods distribution.
Education (3.2%): Stable inflation suggests controlled fee increases, possibly due to government subsidies or regulated private sector pricing.
Services (1.0%): The lowest inflation rate indicates subdued price pressures in service sectors like telecommunications and personal services, possibly due to competition or technological efficiencies.
Goods (4.2%): Higher than services, reflecting the impact of food and imported goods prices on overall goods inflation.
Implications: The divergence between goods (4.2%) and services (1.0%) inflation highlights the supply-side pressures on physical goods, particularly food, compared to more stable service sectors. Policymakers may prioritize addressing food supply constraints to balance inflation across categories.
8. Government Intervention
National Food Reserve Agency (NFRA) Actions:
Release of 47,238 Tonnes: In May 2025, the NFRA released 47,238 tonnes of food to stabilize food prices. This intervention aimed to counter supply shortages caused by heavy rains and transportation challenges.
Stock Increase to 509,990 Tonnes: NFRA food stocks grew to 509,990 tonnes in May 2025, up by 170,000 tonnes from May 2024. This increase was driven by:
Good Harvest: Favorable agricultural output in the 2024/25 season boosted food supply.
Increased Funding: Enhanced government funding for grain procurement strengthened NFRA reserves.
Implications: The NFRA’s proactive measures demonstrate a robust response to food inflation pressures. The significant stock increase provides a buffer against future supply shocks, potentially mitigating price volatility in 2025/26. However, sustained investment in agricultural infrastructure (e.g., irrigation, storage, and transport) is needed to address structural supply chain issues.
9. Zanzibar-Specific Inflation Trends
Decline in Headline Inflation: In Zanzibar, annual headline inflation fell to 4.2% in May 2025 from 4.3% in April 2025 and 5.3% in May 2024. This decline was primarily driven by:
Easing Food Inflation: Food inflation dropped to 3.9% in May 2025 from 4.1% in April 2025 and 8.9% in May 2024, attributed to improved domestic production and stable imports, particularly for sugar, rice, and yellow cooking bananas.
Monthly Increase: Month-on-month inflation rose to 1.0% in May 2025 from 0% in April 2025, indicating short-term price pressures.
Implications: Zanzibar’s lower inflation rate compared to May 2024 reflects successful supply-side interventions and stable import flows. The region’s reliance on tourism and imports makes it sensitive to global price trends, but improved agricultural output has helped moderate food prices. The month-on-month increase suggests ongoing monitoring is needed to prevent renewed inflationary pressures.
10. Broader Economic Context
Global Influences: The document highlights global factors impacting Tanzania’s inflation, such as declining crude oil prices due to weaker demand and increased OPEC+ output. These trends have lowered energy costs, supporting the decline in energy and fuel inflation. However, geopolitical tensions and trade protectionism pose risks to global commodity prices, which could indirectly affect Tanzania’s import-dependent sectors.
Monetary Policy Support: The BoT’s decision to maintain the CBR at 6% and keep the 7-day interbank rate within 4–8% has helped anchor inflation expectations. This stability is critical in a context of global economic uncertainty, as noted in the document’s discussion of the Global Economic Policy Uncertainty Index and Trade Policy Uncertainty Index.
External Sector Performance: The narrowing of Tanzania’s current account deficit to USD 2,117.5 million in the year ending May 2025, driven by strong export performance (e.g., gold, cashew nuts), supports foreign exchange stability. This stability helps moderate imported inflation, particularly for fuel and manufactured goods.
11. Potential Risks and Outlook
Risks:
Food Supply Volatility: Continued reliance on rain-fed agriculture makes Tanzania vulnerable to weather shocks, which could exacerbate food inflation.
Global Commodity Price Fluctuations: While petroleum prices have eased, any reversal due to geopolitical events or OPEC+ policy changes could increase energy inflation.
Logistical Challenges: Transportation disruptions, as seen with heavy rains, highlight the need for improved infrastructure to ensure stable food distribution.
Outlook:
The BoT’s proactive monetary policy and NFRA interventions should help keep inflation within target ranges in the near term. The 509,990-tonne food stock provides a strong buffer against short-term supply shocks.
Investments in agriculture, as outlined in the proposed 2025/26 budget, could enhance food security and reduce inflation volatility.
Continued global easing of petroleum prices and stable export performance (e.g., gold, cashew nuts) will support low non-food and energy inflation, provided global uncertainties do not escalate.
Below is a structured table summarizing the key figures related to Tanzania’s inflation trends as of May 2025, drawn from the provided Bank of Tanzania. The table focuses on data from relevant sections and the narrative. The table is organized to clearly present the inflation metrics and related government interventions.
Tanzania Inflation Trends (May 2025) - Key Figures
Category
Key Figures
Headline Inflation (Annual)
3.2% in May 2025, unchanged from April 2025
Food Inflation (Annual)
5.6% in May 2025, up from 5.3% in April 2025 and 1.6% in May 2024
Non-Food Inflation (Annual)
Declined in May 2025 (exact rate not specified due to truncation)
Core Inflation (Annual)
2.1% in May 2025, down from 2.2% in April 2025
Energy, Fuel, and Utilities Inflation (Annual)
6.1% in May 2025, down from 7.3% in April 2025
Month-on-Month Inflation (Overall)
0.1% in May 2025
Inflation by Key Categories (Annual, May 2025)
- Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages
5.6%
- Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas
3.4%
- Transport
1.7%
- Education
3.2%
- Services (Overall)
1.0%
- Goods (Overall)
4.2%
NFRA Food Stocks (May 2025)
509,990 tonnes, up by 170,000 tonnes from May 2024
NFRA Food Released (May 2025)
47,238 tonnes (to stabilize food prices)
Zanzibar Headline Inflation (Annual)
4.2% in May 2025, down from 4.3% in April 2025 and 5.3% in May 2024
Zanzibar Food Inflation (Annual)
3.9% in May 2025, down from 4.1% in April 2025 and 8.9% in May 2024
Zanzibar Month-on-Month Inflation
1.0% in May 2025, up from 0% in April 2025
Notes
Context:
Mainland Tanzania: The 3.2% headline inflation is within the SADC (3–7%) and EAC (≤8%) benchmarks, reflecting effective monetary policy (e.g., Central Bank Rate at 6%).
Food Inflation Drivers: The rise to 5.6% is due to supply-demand imbalances from heavy rains affecting transportation and higher prices for staples like maize and rice.
Zanzibar: The decline in inflation (4.2%) is driven by improved food supply, particularly for sugar, rice, and yellow cooking bananas.
NFRA Intervention: The release of 47,238 tonnes and increased stocks to 509,990 tonnes highlight proactive measures to curb food price volatility.
In May 2025, the Bank of Tanzania’s medium-term inflation target of 5% remains a cornerstone for fostering sustainable economic development, balancing price stability with robust growth. According to the "Monthey Economic Review," headline inflation stood at a stable 3.2% in April 2025, down from 3.3% in March, aligning well within the 5% target and regional benchmarks of the East African Community (EAC) and Southern African Development Community (SADC). However, challenges persist with food inflation rising to 5.3% due to weather-induced supply volatility, prompting the National Food Reserve Agency (NFRA) to bolster food stocks to 557,228 tonnes, up from 340,102 tonnes in April 2024, and release 29,834 tonnes of maize to stabilize markets. The Central Bank Rate (CBR) held steady at 6%, supporting economic activity while addressing global uncertainties, such as a projected 2.8% global growth rate and a 6.7% decline in crude oil prices. This introduction explores how these figures reflect Tanzania’s efforts to maintain economic stability and the challenges in sustaining the 5% inflation target.
Alignment with Sustainable Economic Development Objectives
The Bank of Tanzania’s monetary policy objectives, are to maintain price stability (defined as a low and stable inflation rate over time) and support economic growth. The 5% medium-term inflation target aligns with these goals in the following ways:
Price Stability for Economic Predictability:
A stable inflation rate of around 5% fosters predictability in the economy, which is critical for sustainable development. Low and stable inflation ensures that businesses and consumers can plan investments and expenditures without the uncertainty of volatile price changes.
Figure: The document notes that headline inflation in April 2025 was 3.2%, well within the 5% target. This indicates that the Bank’s policy has been effective in maintaining inflation below the medium-term goal, creating a stable environment for economic planning.
By keeping inflation within the East African Community (EAC) and Southern African Development Community (SADC) benchmarks, Tanzania enhances its regional competitiveness, attracting investment and supporting trade integration, which are vital for long-term growth.
Supporting Economic Growth:
The 5% target strikes a balance between controlling inflation and allowing room for economic expansion. Excessively low inflation could stifle growth by limiting monetary flexibility, while high inflation erodes purchasing power and deters investment.
Figure: The Monetary Policy Committee’s decision to maintain the Central Bank Rate (CBR) at 6% in April 2025 reflects a strategy to support economic activities while keeping inflation in check. The document states this decision aims to maintain inflation within the 3.5% medium-term target (short-term adjustment) and smooth exchange rate volatility, which supports growth by stabilizing the cost of imports and exports.
Stable inflation supports consumer purchasing power, as evidenced by the decline in core inflation to 2.2% in April 2025 from 3.9% in April 2024. This reduction in underlying price pressures enhances affordability, boosting consumption and economic activity.
Food Security and Cost of Living:
Sustainable economic development requires affordable access to basic goods, particularly food. The 5% inflation target helps manage food inflation, which rose to 5.3% in April 2025, driven by high staple food crop prices due to weather-induced supply volatility. By aiming to keep overall inflation at 5%, the Bank mitigates the risk of runaway food prices, which could disproportionately affect low-income households.
Figure: The National Food Reserve Agency (NFRA) increased food stocks to 557,228 tonnes by April 2025 from 340,102 tonnes in April 2024, supporting food price stabilization. This aligns with the inflation target by ensuring supply-side interventions complement monetary policy, fostering inclusive growth.
Exchange Rate Stability and External Sector:
A stable inflation rate supports exchange rate stability, which is crucial for Tanzania’s external sector performance and economic development. The document highlights the Bank’s focus on smoothing exchange rate volatility, which reduces uncertainty for exporters and importers.
Figure: The global economic context, including a 6.7% decline in crude oil prices, could ease pressure on Tanzania’s import bill, supporting the external sector. Maintaining inflation at 5% ensures that exchange rate stability translates into predictable costs for trade, fostering export-led growth and foreign exchange reserve accumulation (e.g., leveraging gold exports, with prices at USD 3,000 per troy ounce in April 2025).
Challenges in Maintaining the 5% Inflation Target
Despite the alignment with sustainable development, maintaining the 5% inflation target poses several challenges, as inferred from the document’s data and context:
Food Price Volatility:
Challenge: Food inflation rose to 5.3% in April 2025, exceeding the 5% target. The document attributes this to weather-induced supply volatility and logistics challenges, which are difficult to control through monetary policy alone.
Impact: High food inflation, as a significant component of the Consumer Price Index (CPI), could push headline inflation above the target, undermining purchasing power and economic stability. For example, Non-core inflation (including food) rising to 5.7% in April 2025, indicating persistent pressure from volatile components.
Mitigation: The NFRA’s release of 29,834 tonnes of maize helps stabilize supply, but sustained weather disruptions could require structural agricultural investments beyond monetary policy.
Global Economic Uncertainties:
Challenge: The document notes a projected global growth slowdown to 2.8% in 2025 and trade uncertainties due to U.S. tariffs. These external shocks could affect Tanzania’s export markets and commodity prices (e.g., tea and sugar prices rose by 8.2% and 3.9%, respectively), indirectly influencing domestic inflation.
Impact: External price pressures could make it challenging to maintain the 5% target, especially if import costs rise or export revenues decline, affecting the balance of payments and exchange rate stability.
Mitigation: Diversifying export markets and strengthening foreign exchange reserves (e.g., through gold exports) could help, but global volatility remains a significant risk.
Energy and Fuel Price Fluctuations:
Challenge: Although energy, fuel, and utilities inflation eased to 7.3% in April 2025 from 9.3% in April 2024 month-on-month fluctuations (e.g., 2.4% in April 2024, 1.9% in April 2025). These fluctuations could destabilize inflation if global oil prices reverse their 6.7% decline.
Impact: Energy price spikes could increase production and transportation costs, pushing inflation above the 5% target and hindering industrial development.
Mitigation: The Bank’s data-dependent monetary policy adjustments can respond to such shocks, but reliance on global commodity markets limits control.
Balancing Growth and Inflation Control:
Challenge: The document emphasizes the Bank’s dual mandate of price stability and supporting economic growth. Tightening monetary policy to curb inflation (e.g., raising the CBR above 6%) could slow economic activity, while loosening it risks inflation exceeding 5%.
Impact: For example, core inflation’s decline to 2.2% suggests room for accommodative policy, but rising non-core inflation (5.7% in April 2025, could force tighter measures, potentially constraining investment and growth.
Mitigation: The Bank’s use of instruments like repurchase agreements and the Lombard facility allows flexibility, but aligning these tools with growth objectives requires precise calibration.
Structural Constraints:
Challenge: Logistics challenges and supply-side issues, as noted in the document, contribute to price volatility. These structural factors are not directly addressed by monetary policy, limiting the Bank’s ability to maintain the 5% target.
Impact: Persistent supply chain inefficiencies could keep food and non-core inflation elevated, as seen in the 5.3% food inflation rate, challenging the target and affecting living standards.
Mitigation: Complementary fiscal policies, such as infrastructure investments, are needed to address these constraints, but coordination between monetary and fiscal authorities can be complex.
Conclusion
The Bank of Tanzania’s 5% medium-term inflation target aligns with sustainable economic development by fostering price stability, supporting economic growth, ensuring food affordability, and stabilizing the external sector. Figures from the document, such as the 3.2% headline inflation, 2.2% core inflation, and 557,228 tonnes of NFRA food stocks in April 2025, demonstrate the Bank’s success in maintaining a stable economic environment conducive to development. However, challenges like food price volatility (5.3% food inflation), global economic uncertainties (2.8% global growth forecast), energy price fluctuations (7.3% energy inflation), and structural constraints could push inflation above the target, risking economic stability. Addressing these challenges requires a combination of monetary policy precision, supply-side interventions, and regional cooperation to ensure sustainable development.
The table includes critical data points on inflation, monetary policy, food security, and external sector performance, as these are central to understanding the alignment and challenges discussed in the previous response.
Table: Key Economic Figures for Tanzania (May 2025 Economic Review)
Category
Indicator
Value
Inflation
Headline Inflation (April 2025)
3.2%
Headline Inflation (March 2025)
3.3%
Headline Inflation (April 2024)
3.1%
Food Inflation (April 2025)
5.3%
Food Inflation (April 2024)
1.4%
Core Inflation (April 2025)
2.2%
Core Inflation (April 2024)
3.9%
Energy, Fuel, and Utilities Inflation (April 2025)
7.3%
Energy, Fuel, and Utilities Inflation (April 2024)
9.3%
Non-Core Inflation (April 2025)
5.7%
Monetary Policy
Central Bank Rate (CBR, April 2025)
6.0%
Medium-Term Inflation Target
5.0%
Short-Term Inflation Target (April 2025)
3.5%
Food Security
NFRA Food Stocks (April 2025)
557,228 tonnes
NFRA Food Stocks (April 2024)
340,102 tonnes
Maize Released by NFRA (April 2025)
29,834 tonnes
Global Economic Context
Global Growth Forecast (2025)
2.8%
Global Growth Projection (January 2025)
3.3%
Gold Price (April 2025)
USD 3,000 per troy ounce
Gold Price (March 2025)
USD 2,983.25 per troy ounce
Crude Oil Price Change (April 2025)
-6.7%
Tea Price Increase (April 2025)
8.2%
Sugar Price Increase (April 2025)
3.9%
Notes on the Table
Inflation Figures: These highlight the stability of headline inflation (3.2% in April 2025) within the 5% medium-term target, but food inflation (5.3%) and non-core inflation (5.7%) exceed the target, posing challenges.
Monetary Policy: The CBR at 6% and the 5% medium-term target reflect efforts to balance price stability and growth, with the short-term target of 3.5% indicating flexibility in policy adjustments.
Food Security: The significant increase in NFRA food stocks (from 340,102 to 557,228 tonnes) and maize releases (29,834 tonnes) underscore efforts to stabilize food prices, supporting economic development.
Global Context: Global growth slowdown (2.8%) and commodity price changes (e.g., crude oil -6.7%, gold USD 3,000) highlight external factors that could influence Tanzania’s inflation and external sector performance.
Tanzania’s inflation in March 2025, as detailed in the April 2025 Monthly Economic Review, shows an upward trend in headline inflation, driven primarily by rising food and energy prices, while core inflation has declined. Below, we outline the current inflation trends and their drivers, using specific figures from the document to provide clarity.
Headline Inflation Trend
Figure: Headline inflation rose to 3.3% in March 2025, up from 3.0% in March 2024.
Explanation:
Trend: The 0.3 percentage point increase indicates a moderate upward trend in overall price levels, but inflation remains within national targets and regional benchmarks of the East African Community (EAC) and Southern African Development Community (SADC).
Drivers: The document attributes this rise primarily to increases in food and energy prices (Page 3). These components have exerted significant upward pressure on the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which is based on a 2020=100 index.
Context: Despite the increase, headline inflation is relatively stable, supported by the Bank of Tanzania’s monetary policy, which maintains the Central Bank Rate at 6% to keep inflation expectations below the 5% medium-term target.
Food Inflation Trend
Figure: Food inflation surged to 5.4% in March 2025, up from 1.4% in March 2024.
Explanation:
Trend: The sharp 4.0 percentage point increase reflects significant price pressures in the food sector, which has a CPI weight of 26.1%.
Drivers: Higher prices for staple crops—maize, rice, and beans—are the primary drivers, amplified by logistical challenges in transportation due to seasonal heavy rains. These rains disrupted supply chains, increasing costs for producers and traders.
Mitigation: The National Food Reserve Agency (NFRA) held 587,062 tonnes of food stocks (mainly maize and paddy) and released 32,598 tonnes to local traders by March 2025, which helped mitigate further price spikes. The overall food supply remained adequate, preventing even higher inflation.
Impact: The document notes that unprocessed food inflation’s contribution to overall inflation has increased, making it a key driver of the 3.3% headline rate.
Core Inflation Trend
Figure: Core inflation decreased to 2.2% in March 2025 from 3.9% in March 2024.
Explanation:
Trend: The 1.7 percentage point decline indicates easing price pressures from non-food items, which constitute 73.9% of the CPI basket.
Drivers: Core inflation excludes volatile items like food, energy, and utilities. The reduction suggests stable or declining prices for services and non-food goods, reflecting lower underlying inflationary pressures.
Impact: The document highlights that core inflation’s contribution to overall inflation has gradually diminished, with unprocessed food inflation taking a larger role. This decline helps moderate the headline inflation rate despite food and energy spikes.
Energy, Fuel, and Utilities Inflation Trend
Figure: Energy, fuel, and utilities inflation increased to 7.9% in March 2025 from 6.6% in March 2024.
Explanation:
Trend: The 1.3 percentage point rise makes this the highest inflation component, with a CPI weight of 5.7%.
Drivers: The increase is primarily due to rising prices of petroleum products and wood charcoal, the latter linked to scarcity following seasonal rains (Page 5). The document notes the weight of wood charcoal in the energy component but does not quantify it.
Impact: High energy inflation significantly contributes to the 3.3% headline rate, as energy costs affect transportation, production, and household expenses, amplifying overall price pressures.
Additional Context and Drivers
Global Commodity Prices: Rising global fertilizer prices (up 2% to USD 615.13 per tonne) increase agricultural input costs, indirectly contributing to food inflation by raising production expenses. Conversely, a 4% drop in crude oil prices to USD 70.70 per barrel may have tempered energy inflation slightly, though domestic petroleum price hikes dominated.
Monetary Policy: The Bank of Tanzania’s stable Central Bank Rate (6%) and adequate liquidity management (no reverse repo auctions) help anchor inflation expectations, preventing runaway price increases despite food and energy pressures.
CPI Dynamics: The CPI weights show food (26.1%) and energy (5.7%) as smaller shares compared to core items (73.9%), but their volatility gives them outsized impacts on headline inflation. Month-on-month data shows food inflation at 2.5% and energy at 2.9% for March 2025, reinforcing their role as key drivers.
Conclusion
In March 2025, Tanzania’s headline inflation rose to 3.3% (from 3.0% in 2024), driven by surging food inflation (5.4%, up from 1.4%) and energy, fuel, and utilities inflation (7.9%, up from 6.6%). Food price increases, fueled by maize, rice, and bean costs and rain-related logistical challenges, and energy price hikes, driven by petroleum and wood charcoal, are the primary drivers. Core inflation’s decline to 2.2% (from 3.9%) moderate’s overall pressures, but unprocessed food’s growing contribution underscores its significance. The NFRA’s 587,062-tonne food stock and 32,598-tonne release helped contain food inflation, keeping headline inflation within EAC and SADC benchmarks.
Key Figures: Tanzania’s Inflation Trends and Drivers (March 2025)
Indicator
Key Figure
Headline Inflation
3.3% (Mar 2025, up from 3.0% in Mar 2024)
Food Inflation
5.4% (Mar 2025, up from 1.4% in Mar 2024)
Core Inflation
2.2% (Mar 2025, down from 3.9% in Mar 2024)
Energy, Fuel, Utilities Inflation
7.9% (Mar 2025, up from 6.6% in Mar 2024)
Food Reserves
587,062 tonnes (Mar 2025, 32,598 tonnes released)
Fertilizer Price (Global)
USD 615.13/tonne (+2%, Mar 2025)
Crude Oil Price (Global)
USD 70.70/barrel (-4%, Mar 2025)
CPI Weight (Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages)
26.1%
CPI Weight (Energy, Fuel, Utilities)
5.7%
CPI Weight (Core)
73.9%
Month-on-Month Food Inflation
2.5% (Mar 2025)
Month-on-Month Energy Inflation
2.9% (Mar 2025)
Central Bank Rate
6% (unchanged, Mar 2025)
Notes:
All inflation figures reflect March 2025 unless stated otherwise.
Food inflation driven by maize, rice, bean prices, and logistical issues from rains.
Energy inflation driven by petroleum and wood charcoal price hikes.
Source refer to the April 2025 Monthly Economic Review.