TICGL

| Economic Consulting Group

TICGL | Economic Consulting Group
Zanzibar Economic Performance 2026 | Inflation, Budget & Trade | TICGL
Headline Inflation
4.8%
Feb-26 · Year-on-Year
→ Same as Feb-25
Food Inflation
9.3%
Year-on-year (Feb-26)
▲ from 5.8% Feb-25
Non-Food Inflation
1.4%
Year-on-year (Feb-26)
▼ from 4.1% Feb-25
Govt Revenue (Feb)
174.3B
TZS · 104.4% of target
▲ Above Target
Current Acct Surplus
$912.1M
Year ending Feb-26
▲ +29.2% YoY
Clove Export Value
$33.9M
Year ending Feb-26
▲ Bumper Harvest

3.1 Inflation Developments

Zanzibar's headline inflation remained stable at 4.8 percent year-on-year in February 2026 — unchanged from the same period in 2025. On a month-on-month basis the rate eased sharply to 0.5 percent from 2.3 percent in January 2026. The overall outturn masks a significant divergence: food prices are running hot at 9.3 percent, while non-food inflation has collapsed to just 1.4 percent, driven by moderation in housing, water, electricity, gas and fuel costs.

📊
Headline Inflation (Annual)
4.8%
Feb-26 · Stable vs 4.8% Feb-25 · Eased from 4.3% Jan-26
🌾
Food Inflation (Annual)
9.3%
Feb-26 · Up from 5.8% Feb-25 · Driven by seasonal pressures
🏠
Non-Food Inflation (Annual)
1.4%
Feb-26 · Down sharply from 4.1% Feb-25 · Housing & utilities eased
📅
Month-on-Month (Feb-26)
0.5%
Eased from 2.3% in Jan-26 · Food MoM flat at 0.0%
Annual Inflation Rates — Feb-25 to Feb-26
Headline, Food & Non-Food Inflation (%) · Base: July 2022=100
Select CPI Categories — Annual Change (Feb-26)
Year-on-Year Percentage Change by Main Group

Table 3.1.1 — Inflation Developments, Zanzibar

Base: July 2022=100 · Source: Office of the Chief Government Statistician
Main GroupWeight (%)MoM Feb-25MoM Jan-26MoM Feb-26Annual Feb-25Annual Jan-26Annual Feb-26
🌾 Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages41.9−0.14.70.06.49.19.2
🍺 Alcoholic Beverages, Tobacco & Narcotics0.23.40.00.01.06.63.1
👗 Clothing & Footwear6.30.10.50.32.83.03.1
🏠 Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas & Other Fuels25.8−0.2−0.52.05.2−2.3−0.2
🛋️ Furnishings, Household Equipment & Maintenance4.80.41.80.23.63.02.8
🏥 Health1.30.00.00.0−2.01.41.4
🚗 Transport9.10.20.70.41.42.02.2
📱 Information & Communication4.20.0−0.30.03.3−0.1−0.1
🎭 Recreation, Sport & Culture1.10.0−0.10.03.44.14.1
📚 Education1.60.01.10.02.61.91.9
🍽️ Restaurants & Accommodation Services1.40.05.40.00.67.17.1
💳 Insurance & Financial Services0.50.00.00.00.00.00.0
💄 Personal Care & Miscellaneous Goods1.70.30.10.63.51.82.2
📋 All Items — Headline Inflation100.00.02.30.54.84.34.8
Selected Groups
🌾 Food (Total)40.5−0.14.80.05.89.29.3
🏙️ Non-Food59.50.00.30.94.10.41.4
Source: Office of the Chief Government Statistician · Base: July 2022 = 100

3.2 Government Budgetary Operations

Zanzibar's government revenue performance in February 2026 was broadly strong, with domestic revenue exceeding target by 4.4 percent. Tax revenue drove collections across all categories, reflecting improved administration and compliance. However, total expenditure of TZS 407.7 billion — heavily skewed toward development spending at 61.5 percent — resulted in a fiscal deficit of TZS 222.5 billion, financed entirely through borrowing.

💰 Revenue Collections — February 2026
TZS Billions · Actual vs 2026 Estimates · Source: Ministry of Finance and Planning, Zanzibar
🛃 Tax on Imports TZS 34.6B / Est. 41.2B
84.0% of estimate · Actual TZS 34.6B vs Est. 41.2B
📦 VAT & Excise (Local) TZS 29.4B / Est. 39.6B
74.2% of estimate
💼 Income Tax TZS 41.2B / Est. 16.0B
257.5% of estimate · Significant overperformance
🏷️ Other Taxes TZS 26.9B / Est. 16.0B
168.1% of estimate
📋 Non-Tax Revenue TZS 14.4B / Est. 16.0B
90.0% of estimate
🎁 Grants TZS 10.9B / Est. 2.8B
389.3% of estimate
💸 Expenditure — February 2026
TZS Billions · Actual vs 2026 Estimates · Total Expenditure: TZS 407.7B
👷 Wages & Salaries TZS 67.2B / Est. 67.2B
100.0% of estimate · On target
🔄 Other Recurrent Expenditure TZS 89.7B / Est. 95.5B
93.9% of estimate · Includes domestic debt interest
🏗️ Development Expenditure TZS 250.8B / Est. 188.0B
133.4% of estimate · 61.5% of total expenditure
Total Revenue & Grants
185.2B
TZS · 95.6% of target
Fiscal Deficit
222.5B
TZS · Financed via borrowing
⚠️ Development expenditure funded 88.3% from domestic sources
Government Revenue by Category (Feb-26 vs 2025 Actuals vs 2026 Estimates)
TZS Billions
Government Expenditure by Category (Feb-26 vs 2025 Actuals vs 2026 Estimates)
TZS Billions
Source: Ministry of Finance and Planning, Zanzibar · Note: Actual figures for 2026 are provisional. Other taxes include hotel and restaurant levies, tour operator levy, revenue stamps, airport/seaport service charges, road development fund and petroleum levy.

3.3 External Sector Performance

Zanzibar's external sector delivered an outstanding performance in the year ending February 2026, with the current account surplus surging 29.2 percent to USD 912.1 million. The improvement was driven by a combination of strong tourism receipts, record clove harvests, manufactured goods exports, and growth in seaweed production — the island's four pillars of export earnings.

⚖️
Current Account Surplus
$912.1M
Year ending Feb-26 · ▲ +29.2% from $705.9M (2025)
📤
Total Exports
$1,625M
Year ending Feb-26 · ▲ +25.5% YoY · Services 94.9%
📥
Total Imports
$743.9M
Year ending Feb-26 · ▲ +22.8% YoY · Capital goods surging
✈️
Services Receipts
$1,542.7M
Year ending Feb-26 · ▲ +22.4% YoY · Tourism dominant
Current Account Balance — 2025 vs 2026
USD Millions · Year Ending February
Monthly Current Account — Feb-25, Jan-26, Feb-26
USD Millions · Monthly Figures

Table 3.3.1 — Current Account, Zanzibar

Millions of USD · Source: Tanzania Revenue Authority, Banks & Bank of Tanzania
DescriptionFeb-25Jan-26Feb-26p2025 (Yr-Feb)2026p (Yr-Feb)% Change
Goods Account
Exports (fob)1.37.27.134.282.2▲ +140.4%
Imports (fob)40.484.064.6507.1630.7▲ +24.4%
Goods Account (Net)−39.1−76.9−57.5−472.9−548.5▼ −16.0%
Services Account
Receipts137.4166.4144.21,260.11,542.7▲ +22.4%
Payments7.913.610.298.5113.2▲ +14.9%
Services Account (Net)129.5152.8134.01,161.61,429.5▲ +23.1%
Goods & Services (Net)90.375.976.5688.7881.1▲ +27.9%
Exports of Goods & Services138.7173.6151.31,294.41,625.0▲ +25.5%
Imports of Goods & Services48.497.674.8605.7743.9▲ +22.8%
Primary Income (Net)0.70.41.415.327.7▲ +81.3%
Secondary Income (Net)0.10.20.31.93.4▲ +75.3%
CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE91.176.678.1705.9912.1▲ +29.2%
Source: Tanzania Revenue Authority, Banks, and Bank of Tanzania computations · p = provisional · fob = free on board

Exports of Goods

Export of goods more than doubled year-on-year to USD 82.2 million, driven almost entirely by a bumper clove harvest — Zanzibar's signature export commodity. Clove exports surged to USD 33.9 million in the year ending February 2026, with volumes rising to 5,500 tonnes at an average unit price of USD 6,157 per tonne. Manufactured goods also registered remarkable growth of 71.9 percent to USD 22.5 million.

🌿
Clove Exports: A Bumper Harvest Story
Zanzibar's clove production experienced exceptional growth in the year ending February 2026, with export value surging from USD 4.8 million to USD 33.9 million — a more-than-sixfold increase. This follows years of subdued output and reflects both improved agronomic conditions and favourable global spice pricing. The unit price rose from USD 3,979 per tonne (2025) to USD 6,157 per tonne (2026).
5,500T
Volume (2026)
$6,157
USD/Tonne
$33.9M
Export Value
Exports of Goods — Year Ending Feb-25 vs Feb-26
USD Thousands · Traditional & Non-Traditional
Clove Export: Value, Volume & Unit Price Trend
Monthly · USD & Tonnes · Feb-25 to Feb-26

Table 3.3.2 — Exports of Goods, Zanzibar

Millions of USD · Source: Tanzania Revenue Authority & Bank of Tanzania
Commodity / CategoryUnitsFeb-25Jan-26Feb-26p2025 (Yr-Feb)2026p (Yr-Feb)% Change
🌿 Traditional Exports — Clove
ValueUSD '000185.12,588.14,806.24,825.533,867.6▲ +601.6%
Volume'000 Tonnes0.00.40.71.25.5▲ +358%
Unit PriceUSD/Tonne5,858.06,901.56,859.93,978.86,156.7▲ +54.7%
🌊 Non-Traditional Exports — Seaweeds
ValueUSD '000399.811.552.63,939.25,259.5▲ +33.5%
Volume'000 Tonnes0.60.00.16.99.3▲ +35.2%
Unit PriceUSD/Tonne643.1408.2560.3570.3563.2▼ −1.3%
🏭 Manufactured GoodsUSD '000511.3867.4841.613,082.522,489.8▲ +71.9%
🐟 Fish & Fish ProductsUSD '0004.9104.365.31,858.32,246.5▲ +20.9%
🎁 Other Exports (Souvenirs, Spices)USD '000203.53,607.11,325.910,536.618,379.2▲ +74.4%
TOTAL GOODS EXPORTSUSD ('000)1,304.67,178.37,091.534,242.182,242.5▲ +140.2%
Source: Tanzania Revenue Authority and Bank of Tanzania · p = provisional · "---" denotes change exceeding 100%

Imports of Goods

Total imports of goods and services rose 22.8 percent to USD 743.9 million in the year ending February 2026. The increase was concentrated in capital goods — particularly industrial transport equipment and electrical machinery — signalling continued investment in Zanzibar's infrastructure and productive capacity. Fuel imports declined 28.5 percent, reflecting softer global petroleum prices.

Imports by Category — 2025 vs 2026
USD Millions · Year Ending February
Import Category Share — February 2026
% of Total Imports · Capital vs Intermediate vs Consumer

Table 3.3.3 — Imports of Goods, Zanzibar (Selected Lines)

Millions of USD · Source: Tanzania Revenue Authority & Bank of Tanzania
Category / ItemFeb-25Jan-26Feb-26p2025 (Yr-Feb)2026p (Yr-Feb)% Change
🏗️ Capital Goods
Machinery & Mechanical Appliances0.77.95.321.843.2▲ +98.2%
Industrial Transport Equipment0.821.78.020.643.0▲ +108.7%
Electrical Machinery & Equipment0.67.95.112.834.2▲ +167.2%
Capital Goods Total2.739.019.560.4133.1▲ +120.4%
⚙️ Intermediate Goods
Industrial Supplies6.721.616.7110.0175.1▲ +59.2%
Fuel & Lubricants16.811.510.7159.7114.2▼ −28.5%
Parts & Accessories0.81.73.115.628.5▲ +82.7%
Intermediate Goods Total32.837.035.7379.1403.8▲ +6.5%
🛍️ Consumer Goods
Food & Beverages (Household)1.21.81.817.317.9▲ +3.5%
Other Consumer Goods3.64.26.748.270.6▲ +46.5%
Consumer Goods Total5.08.19.467.693.8▲ +38.8%
TOTAL IMPORTS (f.o.b)40.484.064.6507.1630.7▲ +24.4%
Source: Tanzania Revenue Authority and Bank of Tanzania · p = provisional · f.o.b = free on board

TICGL Analytical Commentary

TICGL's independent research interpretation of Zanzibar's February 2026 economic data — covering inflation risks, fiscal dynamics, and the structural drivers of the island's external sector performance.

🔍 Five Key Observations from TICGL Research

1. Food Inflation at 9.3% Demands Targeted Policy Response. While headline inflation held steady at 4.8% year-on-year, the food component surged from 5.8% (Feb-25) to 9.3% (Feb-26). With food carrying a 41.9% weight in Zanzibar's CPI basket — the largest single category — this divergence signals acute affordability stress for lower-income households. The fall in non-food inflation to 1.4% (from 4.1%) masks the real burden being borne by food-dependent households. TICGL recommends targeted social protection measures and food supply chain interventions to address this imbalance.

2. Clove Boom Provides a Structural Window — But Diversification Remains Essential. The more-than-sixfold surge in clove export earnings (from USD 4.8M to USD 33.9M year-on-year) is transformative for Zanzibar's goods trade balance. However, agricultural commodity dependence introduces cyclical risk: clove yields are notoriously volatile due to biennial bearing patterns and weather sensitivity. TICGL advises investors and policymakers to view this as a strategic window to build agro-processing capacity, develop cold-chain infrastructure, and attract value-added spice processing investment — converting raw commodity revenues into durable industrial gains.

3. Services Sector — Tourism is the Backbone at 94.9% of Exports. Services receipts grew 22.4% to USD 1,542.7 million, with tourism (travel) overwhelmingly dominant. This dependency on tourism as the economic engine means Zanzibar remains acutely exposed to global travel disruptions, geopolitical shocks, and climate-related events. The island's resilience strategy must include diversification into MICE tourism, health tourism, and digital nomad infrastructure — all high-margin, low-seasonality segments where Zanzibar has competitive advantages.

4. Capital Goods Import Surge Signals Investment Acceleration. Capital goods imports more than doubled year-on-year (USD 60.4M → USD 133.1M), with industrial transport equipment and electrical machinery recording triple-digit growth. This surge likely reflects construction activity tied to hotel expansion, port infrastructure, and renewable energy projects. The decline in fuel imports (−28.5%) alongside rising capital goods is a positive structural signal — suggesting the economy is shifting from consumption-driven imports toward investment-driven imports, which generate productive capacity and future export capability.

5. Fiscal Deficit Management Needs Structural Attention. The TZS 222.5 billion fiscal deficit, financed entirely through borrowing, alongside development expenditure running at 133% of estimates, raises questions about expenditure control and fiscal sustainability. Positively, 88.3% of development financing was domestically sourced, reducing foreign exchange exposure. However, sustained domestic borrowing for capital spending could crowd out private sector credit if not balanced by revenue mobilisation. TICGL recommends an accelerated push to expand the non-tax revenue base — particularly through tourism levies, marine park fees, and PPP-structured infrastructure — to reduce reliance on debt financing for development.

Tanzania Lending & Deposit Interest Rates 2026 | Banking Rate Analysis | TICGL
Bank of Tanzania · March 2026 · Interest Rate Analysis

Tanzania's Lending &
Deposit Interest Rates

A forensic breakdown of Tanzania's commercial bank rate structure — what borrowers pay, what savers earn, and what the spread between them tells investors about the cost of capital in Tanzania's evolving financial landscape.

Overall Lending Rate
15.11%
Feb 2026 | ▼ -0.03pp MoM
12-Month Deposit Rate
9.82%
Feb 2026 | ▲ +0.12pp MoM
Interest Rate Spread
5.59pp
Feb 2026 | ▼ Narrowing trend
Negotiated Lending Rate
12.19%
Feb 2026 | ▼ -0.06pp MoM
Central Bank Rate (CBR)
5.75%
Q1 2026 | Held steady
Overall Lending Rate
15.11%
▼ -0.03pp from Jan 2026
12-Month Deposit Rate
9.82%
▲ +0.12pp from Jan 2026
Short-Term Spread
5.59pp
▼ Narrowed from 5.79pp
Negotiated Lending Rate
12.19%
▼ -0.06pp from Jan 2026
Savings Deposit Rate
2.98%
▲ +0.04pp from Jan 2026
Rate Snapshot — February 2026

Tanzania's Complete Interest Rate Dashboard

In February 2026, commercial banks' interest rates remained broadly stable. The overall lending rate held near 15.11%, while deposit rates inched upward — compressing the interest spread to its narrowest level in recent months. Below is the full rate landscape as reported by the Bank of Tanzania.

💳
Overall Lending
15.11%
Feb 2026
Includes all loan maturities weighted by volume
⏱️
Short-Term Lending (≤1yr)
15.41%
▼ -0.08pp MoM
Up to 1-year loan facilities
🤝
Negotiated Lending
12.19%
▼ -0.06pp MoM
Prime/large corporate borrowers
🏦
Overall Time Deposit
8.32%
▼ -0.01pp MoM
All tenors weighted average
📅
12-Month Deposit
9.82%
▲ +0.12pp MoM
Annual fixed-term deposit rate
💰
Negotiated Deposit
11.48%
▼ -0.26pp MoM
Large depositor negotiated terms
🪙
Savings Deposit
2.98%
▲ +0.04pp MoM
Standard savings accounts
📐
Short-Term Spread
5.59pp
▼ Narrowing
1-yr lending minus deposit rate
Key Context: Tanzania's Central Bank Rate (CBR) was held at 5.75% for Q1 2026. The spread between the CBR and the overall lending rate of 15.11% — a gap of approximately 9.36 percentage points — represents banks' intermediation cost and margin. The gradual compression of this gap (the short-term spread narrowed from 6.29pp in Feb 2025 to 5.59pp in Feb 2026) reflects improved monetary policy transmission and strengthening competition in Tanzania's banking sector.
Lending Rate Analysis

Lending Rates: Cost of Borrowing in Tanzania

Tanzania's overall lending rate has trended gradually downward over the past year — from 15.14% in February 2025 to 15.11% in February 2026. While the decline is modest, the trend in negotiated rates (from 13.42% to 12.19%) signals meaningful credit cost improvement for qualifying borrowers.

Lending Rate Trends — February 2025 to February 2026
Overall, Short-Term, Medium-Term, Long-Term & Negotiated Rates (%)
LENDING RATE STRUCTURE
Source: Bank of Tanzania — Table A4: Interest Rates Structure (Feb 2025–Feb 2026)
Lending Rate by Tenor — February 2026
Short-term to over 5-year loan rates compared
BY MATURITY
Source: Table A4 — Bank of Tanzania, February 2026
Overall Lending Rate: Feb 2025 vs Feb 2026
Year-on-year change in each lending category
YoY CHANGE
Source: Table A4 — Bank of Tanzania Monthly Data
Lending Rate Spectrum — February 2026
All active lending rate categories ranked lowest to highest
RATE RANKING
Negotiated (Prime)
12.19%
12.19%
Long-Term (3–5yr)
13.95%
13.95%
Term Loans (>5yr)
14.20%
14.20%
Overall Lending
15.11%
15.11%
Short-Term (≤1yr)
15.41%
15.41%
Medium-Term (2–3yr)
15.27%
15.27%
Medium-Term (1–2yr)
16.70%
16.70%
Lending Rate Insight: The 1–2 year medium-term lending rate at 16.70% is the highest across all maturities — reflecting the higher risk pricing for bridge and working capital loans. In contrast, long-term loans (3–5 years) at 13.95% are cheaper, incentivising long-term investment financing. Investors should note that negotiated rates at 12.19% are available to prime borrowers — a full 296 basis points below the overall lending rate.
Deposit Rate Analysis

Deposit Rates: What Savers Earn in Tanzania

Tanzania's deposit rate landscape shows a wide range depending on tenure and negotiation power. From as low as 2.98% on savings accounts to 11.48% on negotiated deposits, the spread in deposit rates itself reflects significant opportunity for sophisticated depositors and institutional investors.

Deposit Rate Trends — February 2025 to February 2026
Savings, 1-Month, 3-Month, 6-Month, 12-Month & Negotiated Rates (%)
DEPOSIT RATE STRUCTURE
Source: Bank of Tanzania — Table A4: Interest Rates Structure (Feb 2025–Feb 2026)
Deposit Rate by Tenor — Feb 2026
From savings to 24-month time deposits
TENOR STRUCTURE
Source: Table A4 — Bank of Tanzania
Deposit Rates: Real Return Analysis
Deposit rate minus headline inflation (3.2%) = real return
REAL RETURN
Source: Table A4 rates minus NBS headline inflation 3.2% (Feb 2026)
Deposit Rate Spectrum — February 2026
All deposit categories ranked — lowest to highest earning
DEPOSIT RANKING
Savings Account
2.98%
2.98%
1-Month Time Deposit
9.10%
9.10%
2-Month Time Deposit
9.16%
9.16%
3-Month Time Deposit
9.03%
9.03%
6-Month Time Deposit
10.26%
10.26%
12-Month Time Deposit
9.82%
9.82%
Negotiated Deposit
11.48%
11.48%

💡 Saver's Perspective: Real Returns Are Positive in Tanzania

With headline inflation at 3.2% in February 2026, Tanzania's deposit market offers genuinely positive real returns across most tenors. A 12-month time deposit at 9.82% delivers a real return of approximately +6.62% after inflation — among the most attractive in East Africa. Negotiated deposit rates at 11.48% yield a real return of +8.28%. This stands in stark contrast to many global markets where real deposit returns remain near zero or negative. For institutional investors and corporate treasury managers, Tanzania's deposit market presents a compelling case for TZS-denominated cash management.

Interest Rate Spread

The Lending–Deposit Spread: Narrowing But Still Wide

The interest rate spread — the difference between what banks charge borrowers and what they pay depositors — is a key measure of banking sector efficiency and financial inclusion. Tanzania's short-term spread narrowed from 6.29pp in February 2025 to 5.59pp in February 2026, a positive sign, but still elevated compared to mature markets.

Interest Rate Spread Trend — Feb 2025 to Feb 2026
Short-term lending vs 1-year deposit rate, and the spread between them (%)
SPREAD ANALYSIS
Source: Bank of Tanzania — Table A4 & Table 2.3.1 — Short-term interest rate spread
How the 15.11% Lending Rate Decomposes — February 2026
DECOMPOSITION
CBR 5.75%
Deposit Cost ~8.32%
Spread / Margin ~6.79pp
0%5.75%~9.5%15.11%
Short-Term Spread (Feb 2026)
5.59pp
1-yr lending (15.41%) − 12-month deposit (9.82%)
Spread 12 Months Ago (Feb 2025)
6.29pp
1-yr lending (15.77%) − 12-month deposit (9.48%)
Monthly Spread Movement (Feb 2025–Feb 2026)
Short-term interest rate spread (percentage points)
SPREAD TREND
Source: Bank of Tanzania — Table 2.3.1 & Table A4
Lending vs Deposit Rates — Head to Head
Monthly comparison showing spread compression (Feb 2025–Feb 2026)
HEAD TO HEAD
Source: Table A4 — Bank of Tanzania Monthly Data
Full Tenor Breakdown

Interest Rates Across All Maturities — Feb 2025 to Feb 2026

The full rate structure across short, medium, and long-term tenors for both lending and deposits — essential data for loan pricing, investment modeling, and financial planning in Tanzania.

Complete Rate Structure — All Tenors (Feb 2026)
Lending rates (red shades) vs Deposit rates (teal shades) by maturity bucket
FULL STRUCTURE
Source: Bank of Tanzania — Table A4, February 2026 data
Negotiated Rate Deep Dive

Negotiated Rates: The Prime Borrower Advantage

Negotiated rates represent the terms available to the most creditworthy borrowers and largest depositors. Tracking the trajectory of negotiated rates reveals the directional bias of bank pricing policy — and the premium paid by smaller, less-connected borrowers.

Negotiated Lending Rate Trend
Monthly — Feb 2025 to Feb 2026 (%)
PRIME LENDING
Source: Table A4 — Bank of Tanzania | Jan 2025: 12.80% → Feb 2026: 12.19%
Negotiated Deposit Rate Trend
Monthly — Feb 2025 to Feb 2026 (%)
PRIME DEPOSIT
Source: Table A4 — Bank of Tanzania | Feb 2025: 11.40% → Feb 2026: 11.48%

📉 The Premium Borrower Gap: 296 Basis Points

The difference between the overall lending rate (15.11%) and the negotiated rate for prime borrowers (12.19%) is 296 basis points — representing the "creditworthiness premium" that smaller or riskier borrowers pay in Tanzania. This gap has been narrowing: in January 2025 it stood at 293bp (15.73% vs 12.80%), suggesting that credit risk differentiation is becoming slightly tighter. For TICGL-advised clients, securing negotiated lending terms can save significant financing costs on large-scale investments.

Complete Data Reference

Full Interest Rate Tables — Bank of Tanzania Data

All data sourced from Bank of Tanzania Table A4 (Interest Rates Structure). All values are percentages per annum.

Table 1: Commercial Bank Lending Interest Rates (% per annum)

Rate CategoryFeb-25Mar-25Apr-25May-25Jun-25Jul-25Aug-25Sep-25Oct-25Nov-25Dec-25Jan-26Feb-26YoY Change
Overall Lending Rate15.1415.5015.1615.1815.2315.1615.0715.1815.1915.2715.2415.1015.11▼ -0.03pp
Short-Term (≤1 year)15.7715.8316.1515.9615.6915.5115.6415.5215.5015.5315.4615.4915.41▼ -0.36pp
Medium-Term (1–2 years)16.0616.5616.3316.3516.4916.4116.4516.2616.4216.4216.4216.7316.70▲ +0.64pp
Medium-Term (2–3 years)15.5316.4415.2515.2415.3815.2215.0115.1915.1315.1815.4314.9715.27▼ -0.26pp
Long-Term (3–5 years)14.0914.3213.8814.1914.3514.3914.0214.2614.2414.4314.2914.0513.95▼ -0.14pp
Term Loans (>5 years)14.2514.3614.1914.1714.2514.2814.2214.6614.6814.7914.6114.2414.20▼ -0.05pp
Negotiated Lending Rate13.4212.9412.8812.9912.6812.5612.7212.8412.4012.6112.3812.2512.19▼ -1.23pp

Table 2: Commercial Bank Deposit Interest Rates (% per annum)

Rate CategoryFeb-25Mar-25Apr-25May-25Jun-25Jul-25Aug-25Sep-25Oct-25Nov-25Dec-25Jan-26Feb-26YoY Change
Savings Deposit Rate2.982.862.892.522.902.902.902.922.932.883.022.942.98━ Unchanged
Overall Time Deposit Rate8.138.007.828.588.748.838.618.508.368.548.368.338.32▲ +0.19pp
1-Month Time Deposit9.909.887.9410.479.9011.5010.709.659.109.319.358.969.10▼ -0.80pp
2-Month Time Deposit9.028.818.789.259.8510.7510.079.2810.099.679.349.569.16▲ +0.14pp
3-Month Time Deposit9.249.429.439.8511.1210.198.599.619.389.429.709.439.03▼ -0.21pp
6-Month Time Deposit9.409.689.369.8210.2810.2810.4410.1210.0610.019.9610.2010.26▲ +0.86pp
12-Month Deposit Rate9.488.149.279.729.799.889.999.849.2110.029.589.709.82▲ +0.34pp
24-Month Deposit6.946.906.667.496.955.997.167.637.057.927.217.117.35▲ +0.41pp
Negotiated Deposit Rate11.4010.3510.5210.6411.2110.7210.9911.0511.2211.6711.6611.7411.48▲ +0.08pp

Table 3: Interest Rate Spread & Policy/Reference Rates

Rate / IndicatorFeb-25Mar-25Apr-25May-25Jun-25Jul-25Aug-25Sep-25Oct-25Nov-25Dec-25Jan-26Feb-26
Short-Term Spread (pp)6.297.696.885.885.795.59
Central Bank Rate (CBR)5.305.305.305.305.305.305.304.794.794.795.755.755.75
Lombard Rate8.008.008.008.008.007.757.757.757.757.757.757.757.75
Discount Rate8.508.508.508.508.508.258.258.258.258.258.258.258.25
Overall T-Bill Rate11.9310.108.868.898.898.136.836.036.276.255.875.895.68
7-Day IBCM Rate8.028.128.007.987.947.356.486.456.386.306.296.406.34

Note: Short-term spread = Short-term lending rate (≤1yr) minus 12-month deposit rate. CBR = Central Bank Rate set by Monetary Policy Committee. Source: Bank of Tanzania Table A4 & Table 2.3.1.

TICGL Strategic Analysis

What Tanzania's Interest Rate Structure Means for You

TICGL's interpretation of the rate landscape for borrowers, investors, depositors, and businesses operating in or entering Tanzania in 2026.

📉
Lending Rates: Gradually Becoming More Affordable
The overall lending rate fell from 15.14% in Feb 2025 to 15.11% in Feb 2026 — modest but part of a structural downtrend. More significantly, the negotiated rate dropped 123 basis points (from 13.42% to 12.19%), reflecting improved credit quality, lower Treasury bill yields, and enhanced monetary policy transmission. Businesses securing investment financing now can lock in historically competitive terms.
💹
Deposit Rates: Exceptional Real Returns vs. Global Peers
With a 12-month deposit rate of 9.82% and inflation at 3.2%, Tanzania offers a real deposit return of ~6.62% — exceptionally high by international standards. For regional treasury managers and institutional investors, TZS-denominated fixed deposits represent a high-yield, relatively low-risk instrument in the East African context.
📐
Spread Compression: A Structural Improvement Signal
The short-term interest rate spread narrowed from 6.29pp (Feb 2025) to 5.59pp (Feb 2026) — a 70 basis point improvement in banking efficiency. This trend is driven by falling Treasury bill rates (from 11.93% to 5.68%), which reduces banks' alternative investment returns and forces them to compete more aggressively on deposit and lending pricing.
🏢
Prime vs. Standard: The 296bp Access Premium
The gap between the overall lending rate (15.11%) and the negotiated rate (12.19%) is 296 basis points — the "financial access premium" paid by small and medium enterprises. Reducing this gap through credit information systems, collateral reform, and development finance is central to Tanzania's financial inclusion agenda and a key priority for TICGL advisory clients.
📊
T-Bill Rate Collapse: Implications for Asset Allocation
The dramatic fall in Treasury bill yields — from 11.93% (Feb 2025) to 5.68% (Feb 2026) — fundamentally changes bank asset allocation decisions. With government securities yielding less, banks have greater incentive to lend to the private sector, contributing to the 24.4% private sector credit growth recorded in February 2026. This is a powerful tailwind for business investment.
🌍
Regional Positioning: Attractive vs. East African Peers
At 15.11%, Tanzania's overall lending rate is competitive within the EAC region, where comparable economies show similar or higher rates. The key differentiator is Tanzania's combination of relatively low inflation (3.2%), stable exchange rate, and growing banking sector depth — making the real cost of capital increasingly attractive to long-term investors.

🎯 TICGL Rate Outlook: What to Watch in 2026

Three dynamics will shape Tanzania's interest rate environment through the remainder of 2026: (1) CBR direction — the MPC held at 5.75% for Q1 2026; any future cut would accelerate lending rate compression; (2) T-Bill yield floor — at 5.68%, Treasury bill rates are near the CBR floor, limiting further decline and setting a minimum for bank deposit pricing; (3) Private sector credit demand — with credit growing at 24.4%, rising loan demand could provide upward pressure on lending rates, counteracting monetary easing. Net effect: rates likely to remain broadly stable in 2026, with negotiated rates continuing their gradual downward trend.

Tanzania Domestic Debt 2026: Government Debt by Creditor Category | TICGL
Total Domestic Debt
TZS 38.78T
February 2026
▲ +0.5% MoM
Commercial Banks
27.9%
TZS 10.83T
▼ from 28.8%
Pension Funds
27.0%
TZS 10.46T
▲ from 26.7%
Bank of Tanzania
19.3%
TZS 7.47T
→ Stable
Treasury Bonds Share
80.8%
TZS 31.33T
▲ from 79.6%
Domestic Debt Service
875.2B
TZS Feb-26
Principal + Interest

Domestic Debt by Creditor Category

Tanzania's domestic government debt is held across five major creditor groups. Commercial banks and pension funds collectively account for over 54 percent of all domestic obligations, making them the principal financiers of the government's domestic borrowing programme. The Bank of Tanzania maintains a significant monetary financing role at 19.3 percent.

🏦
Commercial Banks
27.9%
TZS 10,834.3B
↓ from 28.8% (Feb-25) · Largest single holder
🏛️
Pension Funds
27.0%
TZS 10,463.9B
↑ from 26.7% (Feb-25) · Long-term investors
🏧
Bank of Tanzania
19.3%
TZS 7,468.4B
↓ from 20.1% (Feb-25) · Monetary authority
🛡️
Insurance Companies
5.1%
TZS 1,983.5B
↓ from 5.4% (Feb-25) · Regulatory holders
🏢
BOT Special Funds
2.0%
TZS 757.8B
↑ from 1.6% (Feb-25) · BoT managed funds
🌐
Others
18.8%
TZS 7,273.8B
Incl. public institutions, private companies, individuals, non-residents
Creditor Share — February 2026
% of Total Domestic Debt Stock (TZS 38.78T)
Creditor Share — February 2025 vs February 2026
Year-on-Year Comparison (%)
Creditor Holdings — Three-Period Snapshot: Feb-25, Jan-26, Feb-26
TZS Billions · Grouped by Creditor

Table 2.6.6 — Government Domestic Debt by Creditor Category

TZS Billions · Source: Ministry of Finance & Bank of Tanzania
CreditorFeb-25 (TZS B)Feb-25 ShareJan-26 (TZS B)Jan-26 ShareFeb-26 (TZS B)Feb-26 ShareYoY Change (TZS B)YoY Δ Share (pp)
🏦 Commercial Banks9,791.428.8%10,902.528.2%10,834.327.9%+1,042.9−0.9pp
🏛️ Pension Funds9,097.226.7%10,389.526.9%10,463.927.0%+1,366.7+0.3pp
🏧 Bank of Tanzania6,847.520.1%7,436.019.3%7,468.419.3%+620.9−0.8pp
🛡️ Insurance Companies1,852.35.4%2,005.05.2%1,983.55.1%+131.2−0.3pp
🏢 BOT Special Funds552.71.6%737.81.9%757.82.0%+205.1+0.4pp
🌐 Others5,872.817.3%7,128.918.5%7,273.818.8%+1,401.0+1.5pp
📋 TOTAL DOMESTIC DEBT34,014.1100%38,599.6100%38,781.7100%+4,767.6
Source: Ministry of Finance and Bank of Tanzania · p = provisional · BOT = Bank of Tanzania · pp = percentage points

Domestic Debt by Borrowing Instruments

The instrument breakdown reveals a strong preference for long-term Treasury bonds, which now constitute over 80 percent of the domestic debt portfolio. This reflects the government's deliberate strategy to reduce rollover risk and extend the maturity profile of its domestic obligations — a favourable development for debt sustainability.

80.8%
📜 Treasury Bonds share (Feb-26)
4.3%
📄 Treasury Bills share
14.6%
🔄 Non-Securitised Debt (Overdraft)
TZS 182B
📉 Net change in T-Bills (MoM)
Instrument Share — February 2026
% of Total Domestic Debt
Treasury Bonds vs Treasury Bills — Value Trend
TZS Billions · Feb-25, Jan-26, Feb-26

Table 2.6.5 — Government Domestic Debt by Borrowing Instruments

TZS Billions · Source: Ministry of Finance & Bank of Tanzania
InstrumentFeb-25 (TZS B)Feb-25 ShareJan-26 (TZS B)Jan-26 ShareFeb-26 (TZS B)Feb-26 ShareYoY Change (TZS B)
📜Government Securities29,108.285.6%32,972.385.4%33,122.085.4%+4,013.8
Treasury Bills1,847.45.4%1,821.44.7%1,653.04.3%−194.4
Government Stocks187.10.6%135.70.4%135.70.4%−51.4
Government Bonds27,073.779.6%31,015.180.4%31,333.280.8%+4,259.5
Tax Certificates0.10.0%0.10.0%0.10.0%0.0
🔄Non-Securitised Debt4,905.914.4%5,627.314.6%5,659.714.6%+753.8
Overdraft (BoT)4,887.514.4%5,627.214.6%5,659.614.6%+772.1
Other Liabilities18.40.1%0.00.0%0.00.0%−18.4
📋 TOTAL (excl. liquidity papers)34,014.1100%38,599.6100%38,781.7100%+4,767.6
Source: Ministry of Finance and Bank of Tanzania · p = provisional · Excludes liquidity papers

TICGL Analytical Commentary

TICGL's independent interpretation of Tanzania's February 2026 domestic debt creditor data — highlighting structural trends, investment implications, and policy risks.

💡 Five Key Observations from TICGL Research

1. Pension Funds Overtaking Commercial Banks as Dominant Creditors. The gap between commercial bank holdings (27.9%) and pension fund holdings (27.0%) has narrowed sharply over the review period. In February 2025, commercial banks held 28.8% versus pension funds' 26.7% — a gap of 2.1 percentage points. By February 2026, the gap has compressed to just 0.9 percentage points. At current trends, pension funds are positioned to become Tanzania's largest domestic creditor within 12–18 months. This structural shift has important implications for investment regulation, duration management, and the broader pension sector's exposure to sovereign risk.

2. BoT Overdraft Growth Demands Monitoring. The Bank of Tanzania's overdraft to the government stands at TZS 5,659.6 billion — a TZS 772.1 billion increase year-on-year. This form of quasi-monetary financing, while institutionally managed, can create inflationary pressure if sustained at elevated levels. The TZS 5.66 trillion overdraft now represents 14.6% of total domestic debt, unchanged from January 2026 but materially higher than historical averages. Investors should track this figure closely as a proxy for fiscal pressure on the central bank.

3. Treasury Bond Dominance Signals Improved Debt Structure. Government bonds now account for 80.8% of all domestic debt (up from 79.6% in Feb-25), reflecting the Treasury's continued preference for long-duration instruments. The near-elimination of short-term T-Bills in the financing mix (T-Bills fell from 5.4% to 4.3% of total debt year-on-year) reduces rollover risk and aligns the domestic debt profile with international best practices for debt sustainability.

4. "Others" Category Expanding — A Diversification Signal. The "Others" creditor group — comprising public institutions, private companies, individuals, and non-residents — grew its share from 17.3% (Feb-25) to 18.8% (Feb-26), adding TZS 1.4 trillion in holdings year-on-year. This is the fastest-growing creditor category in absolute terms, likely reflecting increased retail and non-resident participation in Tanzania's domestic bond market. TICGL views this as a positive diversification trend, reducing the government's reliance on captive institutional buyers.

5. Insurance Sector's Declining Share — A Regulatory Watch Point. Insurance companies' share declined from 5.4% to 5.1% year-on-year. While absolute holdings grew slightly (TZS 1,852B to TZS 1,984B), the relative decline suggests insurance firms may be rebalancing their portfolios away from government securities — potentially toward equities or real estate. Regulators and policymakers should monitor whether this trend reflects portfolio diversification (healthy) or liquidity stress (concerning) within the insurance sector.

Tanzania External Debt Analysis 2026 | BoT Monthly Economic Review | TICGL
Total External Debt Stock
$35.86B
▼ 0.1% MoM
Feb-26 provisional
Central Govt Share
82.4%
→ Stable
USD 29.56B disbursed
Private Sector Share
16.1%
▲ Slight uptick
USD 5.77B disbursed
USD Denomination
66.0%
→ Stable
Dominant currency
Monthly Disbursements
$83.8M
▼ vs $143.5M Jan
Mainly to central govt
Debt Service Payments
$98.9M
→ Feb-26
$35.4M principal

External Debt Stock by Borrower

Tanzania's external debt is overwhelmingly concentrated in the central government, which accounts for over 82 percent of the total disbursed outstanding debt. The private sector contributes the remaining 16 percent, while public corporations have exited their external obligations entirely.

🏛️
Central Government Dominance
At USD 29.56B (82.4%), central government external debt remains the cornerstone of Tanzania's external obligation, primarily funding infrastructure and development projects.
🏢
Private Sector Participation
Private sector external debt stands at USD 5.77B (16.1%). A modest increase from January 2026 signals growing private sector access to external capital markets.
⚠️
Interest Arrears
Interest arrears on central government debt stand at USD 80.2M, while private sector arrears total USD 444.5M — flagging pockets of debt service stress in the private sector.
Disbursed Outstanding Debt by Borrower
USD Millions · February 2026
Borrower Share Trend (Feb-25 → Feb-26)
Percentage of Total External Debt

Table 2.6.1 — External Debt Stock by Borrower

Millions of USD · Source: Ministry of Finance & Bank of Tanzania
Borrower CategoryFeb-25 AmountFeb-25 ShareJan-26 AmountJan-26 ShareFeb-26 AmountFeb-26 ShareChange (MoM)
Central Government
Disbursed Outstanding Debt26,317.129,606.929,560.2▼ 46.7
Interest Arrears77.380.380.2▼ 0.1
Central Govt Subtotal26,394.429,687.229,640.4▼ 46.8
Private Sector
Disbursed Outstanding Debt5,827.25,770.35,774.3▲ 4.0
Interest Arrears562.8434.3444.5▲ 10.2
Private Sector Subtotal6,389.96,204.76,218.7▲ 14.0
Public Corporations
Disbursed Outstanding Debt3.80.00.0
TOTAL EXTERNAL DEBT STOCK32,788.035,891.935,859.1▼ 32.8
Source: Ministry of Finance and Bank of Tanzania · p = provisional data · DOD = Disbursed Outstanding Debt

Disbursed Outstanding Debt by Use of Funds

Understanding where external borrowings are channelled reveals Tanzania's development priorities and capital allocation choices. The sectoral breakdown shows continued emphasis on balance of payments support, transport infrastructure, and social services — collectively representing over 63 percent of all disbursed external debt.

🚗
Transport Leads in Infrastructure
Transport & Telecommunication holds the second-largest share at 21.9% (USD 7.74B), reflecting Tanzania's continued push to modernise its road, rail, and connectivity networks.
📚
Social Welfare at 19.3%
USD 6.83B committed to social welfare and education — signalling strong multilateral partnerships channelled toward human capital development and social protection programmes.
Energy Declines Slightly
Energy & Mining fell from 13.1% (Feb-25) to 12.0% (Feb-26), suggesting a moderation in energy sector borrowings or reclassification of some project financing.
Debt by Use of Funds — Feb-26
Percentage Share of Total Disbursed Outstanding Debt
Use of Funds Share: Feb-25 vs Feb-26
Comparative Percentage — Year-on-Year
Use of Funds — Visual Share Breakdown (February 2026)
Percentage of Total Disbursed Outstanding Debt · USD 35.33B Base

Source: Ministry of Finance and Bank of Tanzania · Table 2.6.3

Table 2.6.3 — Disbursed Outstanding Debt by Use of Funds

Percentage Share · Source: Ministry of Finance & Bank of Tanzania
Activity / SectorFeb-25 (%)Jan-26 (%)Feb-26 (%)YoY Change (pp)Trend
BoP & Budget Support20.922.622.5▲ +1.6pp⬆️
Transport & Telecommunication21.221.821.9▲ +0.7pp⬆️
Social Welfare & Education20.019.419.3▼ −0.7pp⬇️
Energy & Mining13.112.012.0▼ −1.1pp⬇️
Real Estate & Construction4.84.94.9▲ +0.1pp
Finance & Insurance4.53.53.5▼ −1.0pp⬇️
Agriculture4.85.35.3▲ +0.5pp⬆️
Industries3.63.73.7▲ +0.1pp
Tourism1.61.81.8▲ +0.2pp⬆️
Other5.54.94.9▼ −0.6pp⬇️
TOTAL100.0100.0100.0
Source: Ministry of Finance and Bank of Tanzania · p = provisional · BoP = Balance of Payments · pp = percentage points

Disbursed Outstanding Debt by Currency Composition

Currency composition of external debt is a critical determinant of exchange rate risk exposure. Tanzania's debt portfolio is heavily weighted toward the US dollar, creating vulnerability to shilling depreciation. The moderate presence of the Euro and Chinese Yuan adds diversification but also multiplies the channels through which currency movements can inflate debt servicing costs.

🇺🇸
US Dollar (USD)
66.0%
Stable · was 67.6% in Feb-25
~USD 23.3B equivalent
🇪🇺
Euro (EUR)
17.7%
Rising · was 16.7% in Feb-25
~USD 6.26B equivalent
🇨🇳
Chinese Yuan (CNY)
6.5%
Stable · was 6.3% in Feb-25
~USD 2.31B equivalent
🌍
Other Currencies
9.8%
Stable · was 9.3% in Feb-25
~USD 3.45B equivalent
Currency Composition — February 2026
Share of Total Disbursed Outstanding Debt
Currency Share Trend (Feb-25 → Feb-26)
Year-on-Year Shift in Currency Composition (%)

Table 2.6.4 — Disbursed Outstanding Debt by Currency Composition

Percentage Share · Source: Ministry of Finance & Bank of Tanzania
CurrencyFeb-25 (%)Jan-26 (%)Feb-26 (%)YoY Change (pp)Estimated Value (USD B, Feb-26)Risk Profile
🇺🇸 United States Dollar67.665.966.0▼ −1.6pp~23.3⚠ High FX Risk
🇪🇺 Euro16.717.717.7▲ +1.0pp~6.3⚠ Moderate Risk
🇨🇳 Chinese Yuan6.36.56.5▲ +0.2pp~2.3✓ Managed
🌍 Other Currencies9.39.89.8▲ +0.5pp~3.5ℹ Diversified
TOTAL100.0100.0100.0~35.3
Source: Ministry of Finance and Bank of Tanzania · r = revised · p = provisional · pp = percentage points · Estimated values based on total disbursed outstanding debt of USD 35.33B

External Debt Monthly Trend

Tracking the evolution of Tanzania's external debt stock over the 13-month period from February 2025 to February 2026 reveals a broadly rising trajectory — punctuated by large disbursement events linked to project financing — and a modest contraction in the most recent period.

Total External Debt Stock — Monthly Trend (Feb-25 to Feb-26)
USD Millions · Disbursed Outstanding Debt (DOD)
Monthly Disbursements
USD Millions
Debt Service: Principal & Interest
USD Millions

Monthly External Debt Summary — Feb-25 to Feb-26

Millions of USD · Source: Table A10, Bank of Tanzania MER March 2026
PeriodTotal DODCentral GovtPrivate SectorDisbursementsDebt ServiceNet Flows
Source: Table A10, Bank of Tanzania Monthly Economic Review, March 2026 · DOD = Disbursed Outstanding Debt

TICGL Analytical Commentary

Drawing on the Bank of Tanzania's official data, TICGL provides the following investment and policy-relevant interpretations of Tanzania's February 2026 external debt position.

1. USD Concentration Remains the Primary Vulnerability. With 66 percent of external debt denominated in US dollars, Tanzania's debt servicing costs are acutely sensitive to TZS/USD exchange rate movements. The shilling depreciated by approximately 3.14 percent year-on-year in February 2026, adding pressure to debt repayment in local currency terms. Investors and policymakers should monitor the Federal Reserve's rate trajectory, as any sustained USD strengthening would mechanically increase Tanzania's external debt burden in shilling terms.

2. Rising Euro Share Adds EUR Risk Exposure. The Euro's share has risen from 16.7% (Feb-25) to 17.7% (Feb-26), reflecting new disbursements likely tied to EU-funded development projects. While the EUR provides some natural diversification from the USD, ECB policy cycles can diverge from Tanzania's domestic monetary conditions, creating basis risk in debt servicing. TICGL recommends that the government maintain hedging contingency plans and track EUR/TZS movements in budgetary frameworks.

3. BOP Support Dominance Signals Structural Financing Gaps. With 22.5% of all disbursed debt allocated to BoP and budget support, Tanzania continues to rely on external borrowing to bridge fiscal shortfalls — a pattern that warrants attention as interest obligations grow. Investors should note that this category of borrowing, while stabilising in the short term, contributes limited productive capacity growth. A gradual reorientation toward project-tied financing in productive sectors (energy, manufacturing, agriculture) would improve the debt-to-GDP growth ratio.

4. Private Sector Arrears Deserve Close Monitoring. Private sector interest arrears of USD 444.5 million represent a 21% increase from USD 562.8 million in February 2025 — trending downward, which is positive — but at 7.7% of total private sector external debt, they indicate pockets of financial distress. Enhanced credit risk frameworks and Bank of Tanzania oversight of private sector external borrowings are advised to prevent systemic spillovers.

5. Chinese Yuan Exposure Is Modest but Strategic. CNY-denominated debt at 6.5% (~USD 2.3B) is largely linked to Chinese bilateral and commercial loans for infrastructure. While modest in share, this exposure is significant in the context of Tanzania-China bilateral economic relations. Project implementation timelines and associated drawdown schedules for SGRC and SGR-linked financing should be tracked through PPPC and MoF channels.

External Debt Key Ratios — Historical Perspective
Tanzania External Debt Stock 2018–2026 · Millions of USD
Source: Table A1 — Selected Economic Indicators, Bank of Tanzania · 2025p = provisional
Tanzania Government Budgetary Operations 2026 | Central Revenue & Expenditure | TICGL
Bank of Tanzania · March 2026 · Fiscal Analysis

Tanzania Central Government
Revenue & Expenditure

"A forensic breakdown of Tanzania's budgetary operations — how much the government collected, what it spent, and what the numbers reveal about fiscal health and investment climate in 2026."

📅 Reporting Period: January 2026 💰 Total Revenue: TZS 3,340.2 Bn 🏛️ Total Expenditure: TZS 3,751.7 Bn 📊 Source: Bank of Tanzania
Total Revenue (Jan 2026)
3,340.2
Bn TZS ▲ +5.4% vs target
Tax Revenue (Jan 2026)
2,762.3
Bn TZS ▲ +7.1% vs target
Total Expenditure (Jan 2026)
3,751.7
Bn TZS — Recurrent + Dev
Development Expenditure
1,061.8
Bn TZS (28.3% of total)
Non-Tax Revenue
394.1
Bn TZS — 87.9% of target
Central Government Revenue

How Much Did Tanzania Collect in January 2026?

Domestic revenue collections in January 2026 remained robust at TZS 3,340.2 billion — surpassing the monthly target by 5.4%. Central Government revenue alone reached TZS 3,156.4 billion, reflecting strengthened tax administration and improved taxpayer compliance across all major categories.

Headline Result: Total domestic revenue of TZS 3,340.2 billion exceeded the January 2026 target by 5.4%. Central Government revenue of TZS 3,156.4 billion was driven primarily by tax revenue at TZS 2,762.3 billion — beating its target by 7.1%. Only non-tax revenue fell short, reaching 87.9% of its target at TZS 394.1 billion.
Central Government Revenue: Actuals vs Estimates vs Prior Year (January)
Billions of TZS — All revenue categories side-by-side
REVENUE COMPARISON
Source: Ministry of Finance, Bank of Tanzania — Table A2 & Chart 2.5.1
Revenue Performance vs Monthly Target — January 2026
Actual collected as % of the monthly target for each category
TARGET ACHIEVEMENT
Taxes on Imports TZS 1,072.95 Bn  |  Target: 977.16 Bn  |  +9.8% above target
Income Tax TZS 850.79 Bn  |  Target: 747.08 Bn  |  +13.9% above target
VAT & Excise on Local Goods TZS 622.57 Bn  |  Target: 661.39 Bn  |  -5.9% below target
Other Taxes TZS 216.02 Bn  |  Target: 193.31 Bn  |  +11.7% above target
Non-Tax Revenue TZS 394.05 Bn  |  Target: 909.72 Bn  |  -56.7% below target
Source: Ministry of Finance, Bank of Tanzania — January 2026 Budget Operations. Note: Full-year budget non-tax target is TZS 4,681.7 Bn; single-month target shown here is proportional estimate.
Revenue Composition — January 2026
Share of each revenue category in total collections
COMPOSITION
Source: Bank of Tanzania — Table A2 Computations
Revenue Growth Trend — Jul 2025 to Jan 2026 (Cumulative)
Monthly cumulative actual vs estimate (Bn TZS)
YTD TREND
Source: Ministry of Finance — Table A2 (July–January 2026 YTD)
Tax Revenue Analysis

Tax Revenue: TZS 2,762.3 Billion — 7.1% Above Target

Tanzania's tax performance in January 2026 demonstrates the effectiveness of ongoing TRA reforms and digital tax administration systems. Three of four tax categories exceeded their monthly targets, led by a strong surge in income tax collections.

Tax Revenue by Category — 3-Year January Comparison
Jan 2025 Actual vs Jan 2026 Estimate vs Jan 2026 Actual (Bn TZS)
3-YEAR VIEW
Source: Ministry of Finance — Chart 2.5.1 data
Tax Revenue YoY Growth by Category
% change between January 2025 actual and January 2026 actual
YoY GROWTH
Source: Ministry of Finance — Bank of Tanzania Computations

📊 TICGL Revenue Intelligence: What's Driving Tax Outperformance?

Income tax collections grew robustly year-on-year, outpacing the target by 13.9% — reflecting broad-based expansion in formal sector employment, buoyant private sector credit (up 24.4%), and the Bank's specialized credit facilities for SMEs that are widening the taxable base. Import duties at +9.8% above target signal sustained trade momentum and rising import values, particularly in capital goods and industrial supplies. These trends suggest tax buoyancy above 1.0 — meaning tax revenue is growing faster than the economy, a positive signal for fiscal sustainability.

Annual Full-Year Tax Revenue Progress — FY 2025/26 (July–January)
Actual collected vs full-year budget target. 7 months into the fiscal year.
ANNUAL PROGRESS
Total Tax Revenue
Actual: TZS 20,302.6 BnBudget: TZS 32,176.0 Bn63.1% achieved
Taxes on Imports
TZS 7,171.7 BnBudget: TZS 11,563.0 Bn62.0% achieved
Income Tax
TZS 8,004.0 BnBudget: TZS 11,367.9 Bn70.4% achieved
VAT & Excise (Local)
TZS 3,774.1 BnBudget: TZS 7,016.5 Bn53.8% achieved
Other Taxes
TZS 1,352.7 BnBudget: TZS 4,887.7 Bn27.7% achieved
Source: Table A2 — 7-month cumulative actuals against FY 2025/26 annual budget target
Non-Tax Revenue

Non-Tax Revenue: TZS 394.1 Billion — Below Target at 87.9%

Non-tax revenue in January 2026 reached TZS 394.1 billion — falling short of the monthly target by 12.1%. This performance reflects timing differences in fee collection and payments from state-owned enterprises, though it remains substantially higher than the TZS 347.8 billion collected in January 2025.

Context: Non-tax revenue shortfalls are common in Tanzania's January period, partly due to the timing of dividends, license renewals, and government service fees. Despite the miss against the monthly target, year-on-year non-tax revenue for January grew by 13.3% compared to TZS 347.8 billion in January 2025, indicating underlying structural improvement.
Non-Tax Revenue vs Tax Revenue Share
Proportional contribution to total Central Government revenue (Jan 2026)
REVENUE MIX
Source: Ministry of Finance — Table A2 January 2026 data
Non-Tax Revenue: Actual vs Target vs Prior Year
January period comparison (Bn TZS)
NON-TAX TREND
Source: Ministry of Finance — Table A2 & Chart 2.5.1
Government Expenditure

Total Expenditure: TZS 3,751.7 Billion in January 2026

The Government continued to align spending with available resources. Total expenditure of TZS 3,751.7 billion was split between recurrent commitments (TZS 2,689.9 billion, 71.7%) and development investment (TZS 1,061.8 billion, 28.3%), maintaining a consistent focus on infrastructure and capital formation.

Expenditure Balance: The revenue-expenditure gap in January 2026 was TZS 411.5 billion (before grants), financed through a mix of domestic and foreign borrowing. After grants of TZS 3,548 million, the overall balance stood at TZS -107.2 billion, financed primarily through domestic securities issuance and foreign project loans.
Central Government Expenditure: Actuals vs Estimates vs Prior Year (January)
Billions of TZS — Wages, Interest, Other Recurrent & Development
EXPENDITURE BREAKDOWN
Source: Ministry of Finance, Bank of Tanzania — Chart 2.5.2 & Table A2 (Provisional 2026 figures)
Expenditure Composition — January 2026
% share of total TZS 3,751.7 Bn spent
COMPOSITION
Source: Ministry of Finance — Table A2 January 2026
Recurrent vs Development Expenditure Trend
Monthly actual split — July 2025 to January 2026 (Bn TZS)
TREND
Source: Ministry of Finance — Table A2 Monthly breakdown
Development vs Recurrent Split

What Is Tanzania's Government Spending Money On?

Understanding the composition of government spending is crucial for investors. A higher development expenditure ratio signals infrastructure expansion, while the recurrent structure reveals fiscal rigidity and the cost of running government operations.

Expenditure Waterfall — January 2026 vs January 2025 vs Budget Estimate
All four expenditure lines stacked for comparative view (Bn TZS)
WATERFALL COMPARISON
Source: Ministry of Finance, Bank of Tanzania — Table A2

🔍 Recurrent Expenditure: What Makes Up TZS 2,689.9 Billion?

Of total recurrent spending, wages & salaries accounted for TZS 1,097.5 billion (40.8%), interest payments for TZS 492.6 billion (18.3%), and other goods, services, and transfers TZS 1,099.9 billion (40.9%). Interest payments of TZS 492.6 billion (down from an estimate of TZS 548.2 billion) reflect better-than-projected debt servicing conditions — partly supported by declining Treasury bill yields, which fell from 11.93% in February 2025 to 5.68% in February 2026.

Recurrent Expenditure Sub-Components
January 2026 — Bn TZS breakdown of TZS 2,689.9 Bn
RECURRENT DETAIL
Source: Table A2 — Wages, Interest (domestic + foreign), Other goods & services
Interest Payments: Domestic vs Foreign (Jul 2025–Jan 2026)
Stacked monthly interest cost (Bn TZS)
DEBT SERVICE
Source: Table A2 — Interest payments (domestic: TZS 385.99 Bn; foreign: TZS 106.57 Bn)
Development Expenditure: Local Funding vs Foreign Funding (Jul–Jan 2026)
How development projects are financed — domestic vs external resources (Bn TZS)
DEV FINANCING
Source: Ministry of Finance — Table A2 (Local dev: TZS 801.0 Bn; Foreign dev: TZS 260.7 Bn in Jan 2026)
Year-to-Date Performance

7-Month Fiscal Year Progress: July 2025 – January 2026

Cumulative performance against the full-year FY 2025/26 budget provides a clearer picture of fiscal trajectory and whether Tanzania is on track to meet its annual revenue and expenditure targets.

Cumulative Revenue vs Expenditure vs Budget (Jul 2025 – Jan 2026)
Actuals vs 7-month pro-rated estimates vs full-year budget (Bn TZS)
YTD OVERVIEW
Source: Ministry of Finance — Table A2 (YTD: July–January 2026)
Revenue: TZS 24,596.3 Bn Collected (7 Months)
Cumulative actual revenue of TZS 24,596.3 billion exceeded the 7-month estimate of TZS 23,806.5 billion — an outperformance of 3.3%. This is 60.8% of the full-year budget target of TZS 40,466.1 billion, broadly on track for a fiscal year with 7 of 12 months complete (58.3%).
⚠️
Expenditure: TZS 27,511.4 Bn Spent (7 Months)
Cumulative actual expenditure of TZS 27,511.4 billion was below the 7-month estimate of TZS 29,051.0 billion — an underspend of 5.3%. This may reflect project implementation delays in development expenditure, which has been a recurring pattern in Tanzania's fiscal execution.
📉
Development Spending: TZS 9,557.9 Bn (7 Months)
Development expenditure of TZS 9,557.9 billion was 86.5% of the 7-month estimate of TZS 11,052.9 billion. This underspend is partly due to slower disbursement of foreign project loans (TZS 1,906.9 Bn actual vs TZS 2,974.8 Bn estimate), which warrants monitoring for project delivery timelines.
🏦
Financing: Domestic vs Foreign Mix
Net foreign financing of TZS 1,697.3 billion was below the estimate of TZS 2,014.8 billion, while net domestic financing of TZS 1,845.1 billion was below the TZS 2,636.3 billion estimate — indicating lower-than-planned borrowing overall, a positive signal for debt sustainability.
Data Tables

Complete Budget Data — Full Reference Tables

All figures sourced directly from the Bank of Tanzania March 2026 Monthly Economic Review, Table A2 (Central Government Operations). All values in Billions of TZS unless stated.

Table 1: Central Government Revenue — January 2026 (Billions of TZS)

Revenue CategoryFY 2025/26 Annual BudgetJul–Jan 2026 EstimateJul–Jan 2026 ActualJan 2026 EstimateJan 2026 ActualJan 2025 ActualYoY Changevs Target
Total Revenue (incl. LGAs)40,466.123,806.524,596.33,624.13,340.2+5.4% ▲
Central Govt Revenue36,857.722,821.223,638.53,488.73,156.4
Total Tax Revenue32,176.018,518.220,302.62,578.92,762.3+9.9% ▲+7.1% ▲
  Taxes on Imports11,563.06,884.77,171.7977.21,073.0839.4+27.8% ▲+9.8% ▲
  Income Tax11,367.96,378.78,004.0747.1850.8677.7+25.5% ▲+13.9% ▲
  VAT & Excise (Local Goods)7,016.53,866.03,774.1661.4622.6553.0+12.6% ▲-5.9% ▼
  Other Taxes4,887.71,388.91,352.7193.3216.0152.3+41.8% ▲+11.7% ▲
Non-Tax Revenue4,681.74,303.03,335.9909.7394.1347.8+13.3% ▲-56.7% ▼
LGA Own Sources1,680.5985.3957.8135.4183.8+35.7% ▲
Grants1,069.9577.2511.186.83.5-96.0% ▼

Table 2: Central Government Expenditure — January 2026 (Billions of TZS)

Expenditure CategoryFY 2025/26 Annual BudgetJul–Jan 2026 EstimateJul–Jan 2026 ActualJan 2026 EstimateJan 2026 ActualJan 2025 ActualYoY Change
Total Expenditure48,775.029,051.027,511.44,146.03,751.7
Recurrent Expenditure31,281.317,998.117,953.52,694.82,689.971.7% of total
  Wages & Salaries10,917.57,581.77,590.51,101.41,097.5942.5+16.4% ▲
  Interest Payments (Total)6,493.73,655.73,174.9548.2492.6375.1+31.3% ▲
    of which: Domestic3,697.32,153.32,149.7373.8386.0
    of which: Foreign2,796.41,502.51,025.2174.4106.6
  Other Goods, Services & Transfers7,088.66,760.77,188.11,045.11,099.91,040.4+5.7% ▲
Development Expenditure17,493.711,052.99,557.91,451.21,061.71,218.1-12.8% ▼
  Local Development12,117.88,078.17,651.0934.2801.0
  Foreign-Funded Development5,375.92,974.81,906.9517.1260.7

Table 3: Fiscal Balance & Financing — January 2026 (Billions of TZS)

ItemFY BudgetJul–Jan EstimateJul–Jan ActualJan EstimateJan Actual
Balance Before Grants-8,308.9-5,244.5-2,915.0-522.0-411.5
Grants1,069.9577.2511.186.83.5
Overall Balance (After Grants)-7,239.0-4,651.1-3,542.5-435.2-107.2
Foreign Financing (Net)4,286.32,014.81,697.3101.318.0
  Loan Drawdowns5,966.44,327.93,496.8440.3257.2
  Amortization (Repayments)-4,389.7-2,341.4-1,819.7-339.0-239.1
Domestic Financing (Net)2,952.62,636.31,845.1333.889.1
  Bank Borrowing2,466.12,201.9239.0278.873.9
  Non-Bank (Net of Amortization)486.5434.41,606.255.015.3

Note: Positive financing = government borrowing; negative = repayments/deposit build-up. Source: Bank of Tanzania — Table A2 (Ministry of Finance data). Actual 2026 figures are provisional.

TICGL Strategic Analysis

What Do These Budget Numbers Mean for Tanzania?

TICGL's assessment of Tanzania's fiscal position and its implications for investors, businesses, and development partners operating in Tanzania.

🇹🇿 TICGL Overall Fiscal Assessment — January 2026

Tanzania's fiscal performance in January 2026 reveals a government that is collecting more than expected (revenue +5.4% vs target) while spending less than budgeted (expenditure -9.2% vs estimate). This combination narrows the budget deficit and reduces domestic borrowing pressure — which in turn helps keep Treasury bill yields down (5.68% in Feb 2026 vs 11.93% in Feb 2025) and lowers the cost of private sector credit. For investors, this fiscal prudence is a strong signal of macroeconomic stability and government capacity to maintain development spending without crowding out private investment.

📈
Strong Tax Buoyancy: Positive for Growth Signal
Tax revenue growing 9.9% above the January estimate — and income tax up 25.5% year-on-year — signals a broadening formal economy. This tax buoyancy (taxes growing faster than GDP) creates fiscal space for government investment without raising rates.
🏗️
Development Spending Undershoot: A Flag for Project Delivery
Development expenditure of TZS 1,061.7 billion was 26.9% below the January estimate of TZS 1,451.2 billion. This is partly due to delayed foreign loan disbursements (only TZS 260.7 Bn vs TZS 517.1 Bn estimated). Infrastructure investors should monitor project disbursement rates as a leading indicator of contract award timelines.
💡
Interest Cost Compression: A Fiscal Dividend
Interest payments of TZS 492.6 billion were TZS 55.6 billion below the January estimate, reflecting declining Treasury bill yields. As T-bill rates fall (from 11.9% to 5.7%), the government saves on debt service — creating more fiscal space for productive spending. This is partly the dividend of Tanzania's low and stable inflation.
🔴
Non-Tax Revenue: A Structural Vulnerability
Non-tax revenue of TZS 394.1 billion was 56.7% below the monthly estimate, continuing a pattern of non-tax underperformance. With the full-year target at TZS 4,681.7 billion, only TZS 3,335.9 billion has been collected in 7 months — 71.3% of what was needed by this point. Diversifying non-tax revenue sources is a key fiscal reform priority.
Tanzania Shilling Stability vs Inflation Rate 2026 | TICGL Economic Analysis
Bank of Tanzania · March 2026 Monthly Economic Review

Tanzania Shilling Stability
vs. Inflation Rate

An in-depth TICGL analysis of the relationship between TZS exchange rate movements and domestic inflation, drawn from the Bank of Tanzania's official March 2026 data.

Data Period: Feb 2025 – Feb 2026
Published: April 2026
Dar es Salaam, Tanzania
TZS/USD (Feb 2026)
2,570
▲ 3.14% annual depreciation
Headline Inflation
3.2%
━ Unchanged YoY (Feb 2025)
Core Inflation
2.1%
▼ Down from 2.2% (Feb 2025)
Central Bank Rate
5.75%
━ Held Q1 2026

How Stable Is the Tanzanian Shilling Against Inflation?

Tanzania's macroeconomic landscape in early 2026 presents a nuanced picture: the Tanzanian shilling has depreciated modestly against the US dollar, yet domestic inflation has remained remarkably contained — well within national and regional benchmarks. This analysis unpacks the relationship between currency movements and price stability.

Key Finding: The Tanzanian shilling averaged TZS 2,570.24 per USD in February 2026, representing a moderate annual depreciation of 3.14% compared to TZS 2,492.05 in February 2025. Despite this, headline inflation held steady at 3.2% — well within the national target band and both SADC and EAC regional convergence benchmarks.
💱
Controlled Currency Slide
The shilling's 3.14% annual depreciation is described by the Bank of Tanzania as "gradual," supported by active liquidity management and Bank participation in the Interbank Foreign Exchange Market (IFEM). The Bank made a net sale of USD 128.8 million in February 2026 to maintain orderly market conditions.
📊
Inflation Decoupled from FX
Despite currency softness, inflation remained anchored. Core inflation eased to 2.1%, energy inflation fell sharply to 2.8% from 5.2%, and food inflation held at 5.7%. This decoupling suggests effective monetary policy transmission and sufficient domestic supply buffers.
🏦
CBR Held at 5.75%
The Monetary Policy Committee held the Central Bank Rate at 5.75% for Q1 2026, signaling confidence in the inflation trajectory. The 7-day IBCM rate remained closely aligned with the CBR, demonstrating effective transmission of the monetary policy stance.
Oil Prices: A Key Buffer
Retail pump prices for petrol, diesel, and kerosene trended downward in Feb 2026, mirroring softer global white petroleum product prices. This was a key factor preventing currency depreciation from feeding through to domestic energy costs.

TZS/USD Exchange Rate Movement (2018–2026)

The Tanzanian shilling has followed a controlled depreciation path over the long term, with the Bank of Tanzania actively managing volatility through IFEM interventions. Annual average rates show a steady but measured weakening trend.

Annual Average TZS per USD Exchange Rate
2018–2026 (Feb 2026 monthly average)
ANNUAL TREND
Source: Bank of Tanzania, Selected Economic Indicators (Table A1) & IFEM data (Feb 2026)
Monthly TZS/USD Average (Feb 2025 – Feb 2026)
Weighted average exchange rate from IFEM
MONTHLY
Source: Bank of Tanzania IFEM data, Chart 2.4.3
IFEM Transaction Volume vs Exchange Rate
USD millions traded vs TZS/USD rate
MARKET DEPTH
Source: Bank of Tanzania — IFEM monthly data

"The gradual nature of the exchange rate adjustment, supported by active liquidity management, continues to maintain the shilling's competitiveness while anchoring expectations against the backdrop of rising global oil prices and external logistical pressures."

— Bank of Tanzania, Monthly Economic Review, March 2026

Tanzania Inflation Breakdown — February 2026

Headline inflation stood at 3.2% in February 2026 — unchanged year-on-year — reflecting a balance of easing core and energy pressures offset by seasonal food price dynamics.

Headline Inflation Components (Feb 2026)
Annual % change by CPI category
CPI BREAKDOWN
Source: National Bureau of Statistics, Bank of Tanzania — Table 2.1.1
Core vs Food vs Energy Inflation Trends
12-month % change, Feb 2024 – Feb 2026
TIME SERIES
Source: NBS, Bank of Tanzania — Tables A9(i) & A9(ii)
Inflation Contribution to Headline Rate — February 2026
Each component's contribution in percentage points to overall 3.2%
CONTRIBUTION ANALYSIS
Core Inflation 1.6 pp
Unprocessed Food 1.4 pp
Energy, Fuel & Utilities 0.2 pp
Total: 3.2% | Source: Bank of Tanzania Chart 2.1.2 Computations

Shilling Depreciation vs. Inflation: Side-by-Side Trend

The most critical question for investors and businesses: does currency weakness fuel inflation? Tanzania's data through February 2026 tells a story of managed divergence — the shilling has softened, but inflation has not followed suit.

TZS/USD Rate vs Headline & Core Inflation (Dual Axis)
Monthly — Feb 2025 to Feb 2026 | Left: TZS per USD | Right: Inflation %
DUAL-AXIS COMPARISON
Source: Bank of Tanzania IFEM data; NBS CPI data — compiled by TICGL

🔍 TICGL Key Insight: The Transmission Gap

In most economies, a depreciating currency raises import costs, which then push up domestic prices. In Tanzania's case, the 3.14% annual TZS depreciation has not translated proportionally into inflation — largely because: (1) oil import costs actually declined 16.6% in the year to Feb 2026 due to softer global prices; (2) food supply reserves remain adequate with NFRA holding 560,008 tonnes; and (3) the Bank's monetary policy has kept credit costs stable. This transmission gap is a positive signal for business planning in Tanzania.

Bank of Tanzania's Policy Response

The Central Bank Rate, interbank market rates, and reserve management all play critical roles in the shilling-inflation relationship. Here's what the data shows about policy effectiveness.

Interest Rates Structure (Feb 2025 – Feb 2026)
CBR, IBCM, Treasury Bills, Lending & Deposit Rates
RATES TREND
Source: Bank of Tanzania Table A4 — Interest Rates Structure
Money Supply Growth (M3) vs Inflation
Annual % growth — M3 money and headline inflation
MONEY & PRICES
Source: Bank of Tanzania — Table 2.2.1 & Table A1
Monetary Paradox: Extended broad money (M3) grew at 24.5% year-on-year in February 2026, and private sector credit expanded 24.4% — yet inflation remained at just 3.2%. This apparent paradox is explained by strong productive sector absorption of credit (particularly mining at +103.9%, trade at +48.7%) and Tanzania's growing economic capacity, which has allowed money supply expansion without proportionate inflationary pressure.

Historical Data: Exchange Rate & Inflation

Comprehensive tabular data for analysis, benchmarking, and investment planning. All figures sourced directly from the Bank of Tanzania March 2026 Monthly Economic Review.

Table 1: Monthly Exchange Rate vs Inflation (Feb 2025 – Feb 2026)

PeriodTZS/USD (Avg)YoY FX ChangeHeadline Inflation %Core Inflation %Food Inflation %Energy Inflation %FX vs Inflation Spread
Feb 20252,492.05Baseline3.2%2.5%5.0%5.4%
Mar 2025~2,500Depreciating3.3%2.2%5.4%7.9%+0.1pp
Jun 2025~2,530Depreciating3.3%1.9%7.3%2.1%+0.1pp
Sep 2025~2,550Depreciating3.4%2.2%7.0%3.7%+0.2pp
Dec 2025~2,560Depreciating3.6%2.3%6.7%3.8%+0.4pp
Jan 2026~2,565Depreciating3.3%2.2%5.7%5.2%+0.1pp
Feb 20262,570.24+3.14% YoY3.2%2.1%5.7%2.8%Stable

Table 2: Annual Economic Indicators — Tanzania (2018–2025)

YearTZS/USD (Annual Avg)TZS/USD (End Period)Headline Inflation %M3 Growth %Private Credit Growth %GDP Growth (Const.) %
20182,263.82,281.23.5%4.5%4.9%7.0%
20192,288.22,287.93.4%9.6%11.1%6.9%
20202,294.12,298.53.3%5.7%3.1%4.5%
20212,297.82,297.63.7%15.5%10.0%4.8%
20222,303.12,308.94.3%11.6%22.5%4.7%
20232,382.12,501.43.8%14.1%17.3%5.1%
20242,597.42,374.73.1%11.1%12.4%5.5%
20252,537.62,450.23.3%24.7%23.6%6.0%

Table 3: Regional Inflation Benchmarking — Feb 2026

Country / RegionInflation (Feb 2026)vs Jan 2026Key DriverTarget Compliance
Tanzania 🇹🇿3.2%↓ from 3.3%Easing core & energy✓ Compliant
Kenya 🇰🇪4.3%DecreasingTransport, utilities easing✓ Compliant
Uganda 🇺🇬2.9%DecreasingBroad easing✓ Compliant
Rwanda 🇷🇼7.9%DecreasingServices pressure⚠ Elevated
Burundi 🇧🇮11.4%DecreasingStructural pressures⚠ Elevated
EAC Average5.9%↓ from 6.2%Regional easingRegional Avg
South Africa 🇿🇦3.0%StableFuel disinflation✓ Compliant
SADC Average5.9%↓ from 6.7%Fuel & transport disinflationRegional Avg

What Does This Mean for Investors & Businesses?

TICGL's interpretation of the shilling-inflation dynamics for those considering investment, operations, or consulting in Tanzania.

Positive: Stable Real Returns Environment
With inflation at 3.2% and a 12-month deposit rate of 9.82%, real returns on TZS-denominated instruments remain positive. The interest rate spread supports domestic investment attraction and discourages capital flight despite currency softness.
📈
Positive: Export Sector Competitiveness
A weaker shilling makes Tanzania's exports more price-competitive internationally. Gold exports rose 35.8% to USD 4,968.4 million, while tourism receipts grew 8.8% to USD 7,520.3 million — both benefiting from favorable exchange dynamics.
⚠️
Watch: Import Cost Creep
Total imports rose to USD 18,634.2 million (year to Feb 2026). While oil import costs fell due to global price softening, industrial supply and capital goods imports are rising. If global energy prices rebound, import-driven inflation could accelerate.
🔴
Risk: Secondary Income Decline
Personal transfers (remittances) fell sharply, contributing to a 50% decline in secondary income to USD 265.8 million. This is a structural vulnerability: reduced remittances can pressure the shilling and limit household purchasing power in coming months.
🏗️
Opportunity: Credit-Driven Growth
Private sector credit grew 24.4% — with mining, trade, and agriculture leading sectoral expansion. The Bank's specialized financing facilities for agriculture and MSMEs suggest a deliberate strategy of channelling credit to productive, inflation-neutral activities.
🌍
Regional Advantage
At 3.2%, Tanzania's inflation is below the EAC regional average (5.9%) and SADC average (5.9%), and close to South Africa (3.0%). This relative price stability makes Tanzania among the most predictable operating environments in East and Southern Africa.
Tanzania Shilling Stability vs National Debt 2026 | Bank of Tanzania Monthly Review | TICGL
Overview

The Shilling's Managed Stability in a High-Debt Environment

In February 2026, the Tanzanian shilling averaged TZS 2,570.24 per US dollar — a moderate annual depreciation of 3.14% from the TZS 2,492.05 recorded in February 2025. This gradual adjustment, supported by the Bank of Tanzania's active liquidity management, masked a more complex story: Tanzania's total national debt had climbed to USD 51,112.8 million, with 70.2% held as external obligations.

Annual TZS Depreciation
3.14%
Feb 2025: TZS 2,492 → Feb 2026: TZS 2,570 per USD. Gradual, managed depreciation.
National Debt (Feb 2026)
USD 51.1B
Total committed external + domestic debt. Down 0.2% month-on-month from January 2026.
Domestic Debt Stock
TZS 38,782B
Up 0.5% MoM. Concentrated in long-term Treasury bonds (80.8% share).
TICGL Key Insight: The 3.14% annual depreciation of the TZS is notably controlled given that Tanzania's external debt obligations require consistent hard-currency outflows. External debt service payments totalled USD 98.9 million in February 2026 alone — comprising USD 35.4M in principal and USD 63.5M in interest — creating persistent demand for foreign exchange that could pressure the shilling without active central bank intervention.

The Bank of Tanzania's policy framework during this period focused on steering the 7-day Interbank Cash Market (IBCM) rate within a ±2 percentage point corridor around the Central Bank Rate (CBR) of 5.75%. This disciplined monetary posture kept shilling liquidity adequate while managing the exchange rate's trajectory through the Interbank Foreign Exchange Market (IFEM).

Exchange Rate Dynamics

TZS/USD Trend & Bank of Tanzania IFEM Interventions

The shilling's trajectory from early 2025 through February 2026, alongside the Bank of Tanzania's net foreign exchange sales in the IFEM, reveals the central bank's active role in smoothing exchange rate volatility while accommodating structural depreciation pressures from debt servicing.

TZS/USD Monthly Average Exchange Rate — Feb 2025 to Feb 2026
Source: Bank of Tanzania · IFEM Data
Source: Bank of Tanzania IFEM Data, Monthly Economic Review March 2026. Chart by TICGL Research.
IFEM Activity (USD Million)
Banks' Sales vs BoT Net Interventions
Source: Bank of Tanzania
7-Day IBCM Rate vs Central Bank Rate
Monetary Policy Corridor (2025–2026)
Source: Bank of Tanzania

Monthly Exchange Rate & Intervention Data

PeriodTZS/USD (Avg)Change vs Prior MonthBoT Net Sale/Purchase (USD M)IFEM Volume (USD M)Assessment
Feb 20252,492.05+58.0 (net sale)~90Baseline
Mar 2025~2,500+0.3%Stable
Apr 2025~2,510+0.4%Mild depreciation
Jun 2025~2,530+0.8%Pressure building
Sep 2025~2,545+0.6%Managed drift
Dec 20252,447.50-0.4%Appreciation (EoP)
Jan 2026~2,518+2.9%+58.088.2Support activated
Feb 20262,570.24+2.1%+128.8 (surge)184.9Active intervention
⚠ Notable Surge in February 2026: IFEM volume doubled to USD 184.9 million (from USD 88.2M in January), with the Bank of Tanzania making a net sale of USD 128.8 million — more than double the January figure. This surge was supported by higher hard-currency inflows from traditional crop exports and the mining sector, but the scale of central bank involvement signals that market-driven supply alone was insufficient to stabilize the shilling amid debt service pressures.
National Debt Structure

Tanzania's USD 51.1 Billion Debt — Composition & Trajectory

Tanzania's national debt is structured across external and domestic components, with multilateral creditors remaining the largest single group. Understanding this architecture is critical to assessing the shilling's long-term vulnerability.

Total National Debt
USD 51,112.8M
End of February 2026. Down 0.2% from January 2026 (USD 51,221.0M).
External Debt Share
70.2%
USD 35,859.1M. Creates sustained USD demand for debt servicing, pressuring TZS.
Domestic Debt
TZS 38,782B
Equiv. ~USD 15.3B. Up 0.5% MoM. 85.4% in government securities (bonds & T-bills).
External Debt by Creditor (Feb 2026)
% Share of Total Disbursed Outstanding Debt
Source: Ministry of Finance & Bank of Tanzania
External Debt Currency Composition
% Share — USD dominates at 66%
Source: Ministry of Finance & Bank of Tanzania

External Debt Stock by Creditor Category

CreditorFeb-25 (USD M)Share %Jan-26 (USD M)Share %Feb-26 (USD M)Share %YoY Change
Multilateral18,366.156.0%20,788.257.9%20,730.557.8%▲ +12.9%
Commercial Lenders11,918.036.3%12,786.335.6%12,818.535.7%▲ +7.6%
Bilateral1,349.54.1%1,591.64.4%1,581.34.4%▲ +17.2%
Export Credit1,154.53.5%725.72.0%728.82.0%▼ -36.9%
TOTAL32,788.0100%35,891.9100%35,859.1100%▲ +9.4% YoY

External Debt Currency Composition — TZS Sensitivity

Tanzania's external debt currency composition directly determines the TZS's vulnerability to exchange rate movements. With 66% of external debt denominated in US dollars, every 1% depreciation of the shilling against the USD increases the domestic-currency value of this debt portfolio by approximately TZS 238 billion at current exchange rates.

USD (66.0%)
66.0%
Euro (17.7%)
17.7%
Chinese Yuan (6.5%)
6.5%
Other (9.8%)
9.8%
Historical Trajectory

Domestic Debt Growth vs Shilling Depreciation — 8-Year View

Tanzania's domestic debt has expanded nearly threefold since 2018, from TZS 13.7 trillion to TZS 38.8 trillion in February 2026. Mapping this against the TZS/USD end-of-period exchange rate reveals the relationship between domestic financing pressures and currency trajectory.

Domestic Debt Stock (TZS Trillion) vs End-of-Period Exchange Rate (TZS/USD)
February Snapshots — 2018 to 2026
Source: Ministry of Finance, Bank of Tanzania. Chart by TICGL Research.

Domestic Government Debt by Instrument (Feb 2026)

InstrumentFeb-25 (TZS B)Jan-26 (TZS B)Feb-26 (TZS B)Share % (Feb-26)MoM Change
Government Bonds (T-Bonds)27,073.731,015.131,333.280.8%▲ +1.0%
Overdraft (Non-securitized)4,887.55,627.25,659.614.6%▲ +0.6%
Treasury Bills1,847.41,821.41,653.04.3%▼ -9.2%
Government Stocks187.1135.7135.70.4%— 0.0%
Tax Certificates0.10.10.10.0%— 0.0%
TOTAL DOMESTIC DEBT34,014.138,599.638,781.7100%▲ +0.5%
Creditor Concentration Risk: Commercial banks and pension funds hold 54.9% of domestic debt (27.9% and 27.0% respectively). This concentration means domestic debt servicing costs — TZS 875.2 billion in February 2026 alone (TZS 472.2B principal + TZS 403B interest) — flow back primarily through the domestic financial system, creating relatively contained exchange rate pressure compared to external debt service.
Debt Service & Foreign Reserves

Debt Servicing Demands vs Official Reserves Buffer

The central question for TZS stability is whether Tanzania's foreign exchange reserves are sufficient to absorb the hard-currency demands of external debt servicing without forcing disorderly depreciation. February 2026 data shows a narrow but adequate buffer.

External Debt Service (Feb 2026)
USD 98.9M
Principal: USD 35.4M · Interest: USD 63.5M. Monthly hard-currency outflow.
Gross Official Reserves
USD 6,243.6M
Covers 4.8 months of imports. Above EAC (4.5M) and national (4.0M) benchmarks.
Reserves vs External Debt
17.4%
Reserves as % of disbursed external debt. Key coverage ratio for shilling protection.
Gross Official Reserves (USD B) & Import Cover Months — Feb 2022 to Feb 2026
Compared against EAC (4.5M), SADC (6.0M) and National (4.0M) benchmarks
Source: Bank of Tanzania Monthly Economic Review. Chart by TICGL Research.

External Debt Flows — Monthly Disbursements vs Service Payments

PeriodDisbursements (USD M)Principal (USD M)Interest (USD M)Total Service (USD M)Net Flow (USD M)TZS Pressure
Feb-25726.466.749.7116.5+609.9Low
Mar-25421.996.447.0143.4+278.5Low
Apr-25133.9142.313.2155.5-21.7Moderate
May-25112.9286.2118.4404.7-291.8High
Jun-251,161.9185.473.7259.1+902.8Low
Oct-25171.1262.082.3344.3-173.2Moderate-High
Jan-26143.581.517.599.0+44.4Low
Feb-2683.835.463.598.9-15.1Moderate
⚠ May 2025 Stress Event: In May 2025, Tanzania experienced one of its highest single-month debt service burdens at USD 404.7 million — resulting in a net transfer of -USD 291.8 million. This type of episodic surge in hard-currency outflows represents a structural risk to TZS stability. The shilling's managed depreciation trajectory suggests these peaks were absorbed through reserve drawdowns and central bank IFEM interventions rather than market-driven adjustment.
Debt Utilisation

What Tanzania Borrowed For — Debt by Use of Funds

The composition of external debt by sector of use matters for assessing whether Tanzania's borrowing is productivity-enhancing — and thus capable of generating the foreign exchange needed to service it — or primarily financing consumption and transfers with limited export-generation potential.

Disbursed Outstanding External Debt by Use of Funds (Feb 2026)
% Share — USD 35.33 Billion Total
Source: Ministry of Finance & Bank of Tanzania
Sector / Use of FundsFeb-25 (%)Jan-26 (%)Feb-26 (%)TrendFX Generation Potential
Transport & Telecommunication21.221.821.9▲ RisingModerate (freight income, logistics)
BoP & Budget Support20.922.622.5▲ Rising⚠ Low — direct budget financing
Social Welfare & Education20.019.419.3▼ FallingLow (human capital, long-term)
Energy & Mining13.112.012.0▼ FallingHigh (export revenue generator)
Agriculture4.85.35.3▲ RisingModerate-High (traditional exports)
Real Estate & Construction4.84.94.9— StableLow (domestic asset)
Industries3.63.73.7— StableModerate (import substitution)
Finance & Insurance4.53.53.5▼ FallingModerate
Tourism1.61.81.8▲ RisingVery High (USD earner)
Other5.54.94.9▼ FallingMixed
TICGL Analysis — Productivity vs. Debt Service: The combined share of BoP/Budget Support (22.5%) and Social Welfare/Education (19.3%) — totalling 41.8% of external debt — represents borrowing with limited short-to-medium-term foreign exchange generating capacity. This structural feature means Tanzania must rely on its gold exports, tourism receipts, and growing manufacturing base to generate the USD required to service an increasingly large external debt portfolio, making the shilling's stability inherently dependent on commodity prices and tourism flows.
TICGL Synthesis

What This Means for Tanzania — Investment & Risk Perspective

The interplay between TZS stability and national debt levels creates a nuanced risk profile for investors and businesses operating in Tanzania in 2026.

✅ Resilience Factor
Managed Drift
At 3.14% annual depreciation, TZS is among the more stable SSA currencies. Active BoT management and strong reserves provide a buffer.
⚠ Watch Factor
USD Debt Concentration
66% of external debt in USD means each TZS weakening directly inflates debt servicing costs in shilling terms — a feedback loop risk.
🔴 Risk Factor
Episodic FX Stress
Quarterly debt service peaks (May 2025: USD 404.7M) can create sudden pressure on reserves and TZS, especially if export receipts disappoint.

For investors, the shilling's managed trajectory reflects disciplined monetary governance at the Bank of Tanzania rather than fundamental overvaluation or undervaluation. The 5.75% Central Bank Rate, tight IBCM corridor management, and growing foreign reserves (USD 6.24B as of February 2026) collectively underpin the currency's resilience.

However, the structural expansion of external debt — rising from USD 32.8B (February 2025) to USD 35.9B (February 2026), a 9.4% increase — means Tanzania must sustain export growth, particularly in gold and tourism, to avoid the debt-currency depreciation spiral that has challenged other African economies.

The positive signal is that gold exports surged 35.8% year-on-year to USD 4.97B in the year ending February 2026, and tourism receipts rose 8.8% to USD 7.52B. These hard-currency inflows, if sustained, provide a credible counter-weight to growing debt service obligations and support the case for continued shilling stability in the 3-5% annual depreciation range.

Bank of Tanzania Financial Statement December 2025 - Complete Analysis | TICGL

Bank of Tanzania Financial Statement Analysis

Comprehensive Review of Central Bank's Financial Position
Reporting Period: December 31, 2025 | Published: January 16, 2026 | Total Assets: TZS 29.73 Trillion

Introduction

The Bank of Tanzania's financial statement for December 31, 2025, reveals a robust balance sheet totaling TZS 29,734,116,024,000 (TZS 29.73 trillion) in total assets, representing a marginal increase of TZS 62.75 billion (0.21%) from the previous month. The central bank maintains strong foreign currency reserves, significant gold holdings, and substantial government securities portfolios, positioning Tanzania's monetary authority as a stable financial institution.

Key highlights include total equity of TZS 2.69 trillion, though this declined by TZS 138.09 billion from November 2025. Currency in circulation increased to TZS 9.87 trillion, while foreign currency marketable securities remained substantial at TZS 8.97 trillion, demonstrating the bank's capacity to manage monetary policy and maintain financial stability.

Total Assets
TZS 29.73T
+0.21% from Nov 2025
Total Equity
TZS 2.69T
-4.89% from Nov 2025
Currency in Circulation
TZS 9.87T
+1.72% from Nov 2025
Foreign Reserves
TZS 8.97T
-0.20% from Nov 2025

Detailed Assets Analysis

Asset Composition and Distribution

The Bank of Tanzania's asset portfolio demonstrates strategic diversification across multiple categories, with foreign currency marketable securities representing the largest single asset class at TZS 8.97 trillion (30.1% of total assets). This substantial foreign currency position enables the central bank to maintain exchange rate stability and meet international payment obligations.

Asset CategoryDec 31, 2025 (TZS '000)Nov 30, 2025 (TZS '000)Change (TZS '000)% Change
Cash and Cash Equivalent4,082,721,9814,451,306,481-368,584,500-8.28%
Items in Course of Settlement26,824,1750+26,824,175New
Holdings of SDRs248,262,596260,076,904-11,814,308-4.54%
Monetary Gold2,094,668,7711,882,335,649+212,333,122+11.28%
IMF Quota1,335,991,2511,316,940,410+19,050,841+1.45%
Foreign Currency Securities8,965,338,7368,983,322,949-17,984,213-0.20%
Government Securities1,785,952,6821,788,957,901-3,005,219-0.17%
Advances to Governments4,313,547,9255,003,855,160-690,307,235-13.79%
Loans and Receivables1,333,694,7781,353,585,170-19,890,392-1.47%
Equity Investments160,318,269159,420,434+897,835+0.56%
Bullion Gold3,303,237,6792,790,183,836+513,053,843+18.39%
Other Assets & PPE2,083,557,1811,681,386,053+402,171,128+23.92%

Asset Distribution (December 2025)

Key Asset Movement Insights

Significant Gold Holdings Increase: Combined monetary and bullion gold increased by TZS 725.39 billion (+13.44%), reaching TZS 5.40 trillion. This substantial increase reflects strategic reserve diversification and potentially rising gold prices.

Government Lending Reduction: Advances to Governments decreased by TZS 690.31 billion (-13.79%), suggesting improved government fiscal position or strategic deleveraging by the central bank.

Cash Position Optimization: Cash and cash equivalents declined by TZS 368.58 billion (-8.28%), likely reflecting deployment into higher-yielding assets or operational requirements.

Liabilities and Equity Analysis

Liability/Equity CategoryDec 31, 2025 (TZS '000)Nov 30, 2025 (TZS '000)Change (TZS '000)% Change
Currency in Circulation9,865,443,6779,698,821,378+166,622,299+1.72%
Deposits - Banks & NBFIs4,640,101,8355,436,842,144-796,740,309-14.65%
Deposits - Others3,460,470,1963,570,569,361-110,099,165-3.08%
Foreign Currency Liabilities4,512,327,8894,030,408,142+481,919,747+11.96%
Repurchase Agreements360,000,0000+360,000,000New
BoT Liquidity Papers433,095,193242,517,669+190,577,524+78.58%
SDR Allocation1,920,310,5071,892,927,446+27,383,061+1.45%
IMF Related Liabilities1,209,845,4141,209,845,4140-
Other Liabilities645,181,968764,009,689-118,827,721-15.55%

Liability Structure (December 2025)

Monetary Policy Indicators

The increase in currency in circulation by TZS 166.62 billion (+1.72%) to TZS 9.87 trillion indicates strong economic activity and seasonal demand patterns typical of the December period. This growth in money supply aligns with increased consumer spending during the holiday season and end-of-year business transactions.

The significant introduction of TZS 360 billion in repurchase agreements and a 78.58% increase in BoT Liquidity Papers (TZS 433.10 billion) demonstrates active liquidity management operations. These instruments allow the central bank to fine-tune money market conditions and maintain target interest rates.

Bank and non-bank financial institution deposits decreased substantially by TZS 796.74 billion (-14.65%), potentially reflecting seasonal withdrawal patterns, lending activities, or strategic reserve management by financial institutions.

Month-over-Month Financial Position Trends

Equity Position and Reserves

ComponentDec 31, 2025 (TZS '000)Nov 30, 2025 (TZS '000)Change (TZS '000)
Authorised and Paid up Capital100,000,000100,000,0000
Reserves2,587,339,3452,725,429,704-138,090,359
Total Equity2,687,339,3452,825,429,704-138,090,359

Equity Analysis

Total equity declined by TZS 138.09 billion (-4.89%) from November to December 2025, entirely attributable to a reduction in reserves. This decrease may reflect operational expenses, valuation adjustments on foreign currency holdings, or strategic reserve allocations. Despite this decline, the central bank maintains a healthy equity position of TZS 2.69 trillion, representing 9.04% of total assets, which is adequate for a central bank's capital requirements.

Financial Ratios and Performance Indicators

Financial IndicatorDec 2025Nov 2025Analysis
Equity to Assets Ratio9.04%9.52%Adequate capital adequacy for central banking operations
Foreign Reserves to Liabilities33.15%33.47%Strong foreign currency position relative to obligations
Gold Holdings (Total)TZS 5.40TTZS 4.67TSignificant strategic reserve diversification
Liquidity Coverage41.39%45.91%Healthy liquid asset position
Currency Coverage Ratio3.013.06Assets exceed liabilities by factor of 3

Key Financial Metrics Comparison

Strategic Implications for Tanzania's Economy

Monetary Stability and Exchange Rate Management

The Bank of Tanzania's substantial foreign currency reserves of TZS 8.97 trillion, combined with total gold holdings of TZS 5.40 trillion, provide a robust foundation for maintaining exchange rate stability and meeting external payment obligations. These reserves represent approximately 47.7% of total assets, demonstrating the central bank's commitment to safeguarding Tanzania's currency value and supporting international trade.

Liquidity Management and Financial System Stability

The active use of monetary policy instruments, including the introduction of TZS 360 billion in repurchase agreements and significant increase in liquidity papers, demonstrates sophisticated liquidity management capabilities. These tools enable the Bank of Tanzania to maintain optimal money market conditions, control inflation, and support economic growth objectives.

Government Fiscal Coordination

The reduction in advances to government by TZS 690.31 billion (-13.79%) suggests improved fiscal discipline or reduced government borrowing requirements from the central bank. This positive trend indicates either stronger revenue collection, alternative financing sources, or expenditure rationalization, all contributing to macroeconomic stability.

Economic Growth Support

The 1.72% increase in currency in circulation reflects growing economic activity and financial deepening. This expansion in money supply, when properly managed, supports business transactions, consumer spending, and overall economic growth while maintaining price stability objectives.

International Reserve Position

Tanzania's international reserves composition includes:

  • Foreign Currency Securities: TZS 8,965.34 billion (30.15% of assets)
  • Monetary Gold: TZS 2,094.67 billion (7.05% of assets)
  • Bullion Gold: TZS 3,303.24 billion (11.11% of assets)
  • IMF Quota: TZS 1,335.99 billion (4.49% of assets)
  • SDR Holdings: TZS 248.26 billion (0.84% of assets)

Total international reserves of approximately TZS 15.95 trillion provide substantial import cover and external debt servicing capacity, enhancing investor confidence and supporting currency stability.

Comparative Analysis: November vs December 2025

Major Balance Sheet Changes

Top 5 Increases (December 2025)

ItemChange (TZS Billion)% ChangeImpact
Bullion Gold+513.05+18.39%Strategic reserve diversification and value appreciation
Foreign Currency Liabilities+481.92+11.96%Increased external obligations or currency swaps
Other Assets+410.54+80.95%Operational adjustments and receivables management
Repurchase Agreements+360.00NewActive liquidity management operations
Monetary Gold+212.33+11.28%Reserve asset appreciation and acquisitions

Top 5 Decreases (December 2025)

ItemChange (TZS Billion)% ChangeImpact
Deposits - Banks & NBFIs-796.74-14.65%Reduced institutional deposits, possible lending activity
Advances to Governments-690.31-13.79%Government debt repayment or fiscal improvement
Cash and Cash Equivalent-368.58-8.28%Cash deployment to other investments
Reserves (Equity)-138.09-5.07%Operational costs and valuation adjustments
Other Liabilities-118.83-15.55%Settlement of outstanding obligations

Sector-Specific Insights

Banking Sector Implications

The 14.65% decrease in bank and NBFI deposits at the central bank suggests financial institutions are actively deploying capital into lending and investment activities. This reduction in excess reserves typically indicates confidence in economic conditions and opportunities for profitable deployment of funds. Commercial banks may be responding to increased credit demand or seeking higher returns in government securities markets.

Government Financing Dynamics

Government securities holdings of TZS 1.79 trillion combined with the reduction in direct advances demonstrates a shift toward market-based government financing. This transition enhances transparency, promotes market development, and reduces inflationary pressures associated with central bank financing of fiscal deficits.

External Sector Strength

The robust foreign reserve position provides Tanzania with approximately 5-6 months of import cover (based on typical import levels), well above the internationally recommended minimum of 3 months. This strong external buffer enhances the country's ability to weather external shocks, maintain exchange rate stability, and attract foreign investment.

Conclusion and Outlook

The Bank of Tanzania's December 2025 financial statement reflects a well-managed central bank with strong international reserves, effective liquidity management capabilities, and prudent fiscal coordination with the government. The TZS 29.73 trillion balance sheet demonstrates institutional strength and capacity to support Tanzania's economic development objectives.

Key positive indicators include the substantial increase in gold holdings (+TZS 725.39 billion), reduced government dependency on central bank financing (-TZS 690.31 billion in advances), and healthy foreign currency reserves (TZS 8.97 trillion). These factors position Tanzania favorably for exchange rate stability, inflation management, and economic growth support.

The marginal equity decline of 4.89% warrants monitoring but does not raise immediate concerns given the overall strength of the balance sheet. The central bank's equity ratio of 9.04% remains adequate for its operational requirements and risk management framework.

Looking ahead, the Bank of Tanzania's robust reserve position and sophisticated monetary policy toolkit provide essential foundations for navigating global economic uncertainties, supporting financial sector development, and fostering sustainable economic growth in 2026 and beyond.

Tanzania Inflation Analysis 2025-2026: Regional Leadership & Economic Stability | TICGL

Tanzania's Inflation Leadership: Comprehensive 2025 Analysis & 2026 Outlook

Regional Performance, Investment Implications & Economic Projections

Introduction

Tanzania demonstrated superior inflation management in 2025, achieving an annual average of 3.3% and outperforming regional peers Kenya (4.1%) and Uganda (3.6%). Despite food inflation surging from 2.1% to 6.4%, the country maintained exceptional stability through declining core inflation (3.4% to 2.2%) and non-food inflation (3.5% to 2.0%).

3.3% 2025 Average Inflation
1st Rank in East Africa
8/12 Months as Best Performer
3.8% 2026 Forecast

1. Regional Inflation Performance Comparison (2025)

MonthTanzania (%)Kenya (%)Uganda (%)Best Performer
Jan 20253.13.33.6Tanzania
Feb 20253.23.53.7Tanzania
Mar 20253.33.63.4Uganda
Apr 20253.24.13.5Tanzania
May 20253.23.83.8Tanzania
Jun 20253.33.83.9Tanzania
Jul 20253.34.13.8Tanzania
Aug 20253.44.53.8Tanzania
Sep 20253.44.64.0Tanzania
Oct 20253.54.63.4Uganda
Nov 20253.44.53.1Uganda
Dec 20253.64.53.1Uganda
Annual Average3.34.13.6Tanzania
Key Insight: Tanzania ranked first (lowest inflation) in 8 out of 12 months in 2025 and was never the worst performer in any month. Kenya showed highest volatility, peaking at 4.6% in September-October 2025.

2. Tanzania's Inflation Components (December 2025)

CategoryWeight (%)12-Month Change (%)Status
Food & Non-alcoholic Beverages28.26.7⚠️ High Pressure
Alcoholic Beverages & Tobacco1.93.4Moderate
Clothing & Footwear10.82.0✅ Well-controlled
Housing, Water, Utilities15.12.3✅ Stable
Furnishings & Household7.93.0Moderate
Health2.51.3✅ Excellent
Transport14.14.1Elevated
Information & Communication5.40.5✅ Minimal
Recreation & Culture1.60.3✅ Minimal
Education Services2.02.9Moderate
Restaurants & Accommodation6.60.9✅ Low
Core Inflation73.92.5✅ Strong Control
Non-Core Inflation26.16.7⚠️ Volatile
TOTAL - ALL ITEMS100.03.6Target Range
Critical Finding: The divergence between Core (2.5%) and Non-Core (6.7%) inflation indicates that price pressures are concentrated in volatile components rather than broad-based, suggesting effective monetary policy and underlying economic stability.

3. Historical Comparison: 2024 vs 2025 Trends

Category2024 Average (%)2025 Average (%)Change (pp)Trend
Headline Inflation3.13.3+0.2↗️ Slight increase
Food Inflation2.16.4+4.3⚠️ Sharp increase
Non-Food Inflation3.52.0-1.5✅ Strong decline
Core Inflation3.42.2-1.2✅ Significant improvement
Non-Core Inflation2.26.2+4.0⚠️ Major increase
Key Finding: The 2025 inflation story is about divergence—volatile food and non-core items surged while core and non-food items improved dramatically. This suggests inflation is not demand-driven but rather supply-side and weather-related.

4. Investment & Competitive Advantages

FactorTanzaniaKenyaUgandaTanzania Advantage
2025 Average Inflation3.3%4.1%3.6%✅ Lowest
Stability (Std Dev)~0.15~0.53~0.29✅ Most stable
Core Inflation2.2%N/AN/A✅ Well-controlled
Months as Best Performer8/120/124/12✅ Clear leader
Purchasing PowerBestWorstMiddle✅ Investment appeal

Investment Implications

  • Currency Stability: Lower inflation supports Tanzanian Shilling strength
  • Real Returns: Better environment for fixed-income investments
  • Cost Competitiveness: Lower input costs for businesses operating regionally
  • Consumer Confidence: Stable prices support domestic demand growth

5. 2026 Inflation Projections & Forecast

CountryBaseline Forecast (%)Range (%)Key Sources
Tanzania3.83.0 - 4.2BoT, Trading Economics, TICGL
Kenya4.84.0 - 5.2IMF (5.2%), World Bank (5.0%)
Uganda3.73.3 - 4.2Trading Economics, Deloitte/EIU

Tanzania 2026 Quarterly Projections

QuarterProjected Inflation (%)Expected Trend
Q1 20262.7Below 2025 average
Q2 20263.1Gradual increase
Q3 20262.7Stabilization
Q4 20262.9Year-end stability
2026 Average~2.9Below 2025

Bank of Tanzania Policy Framework

IndicatorCurrent Status2026 TargetPolicy Stance
Policy Rate5.75%MaintainedAccommodative
Inflation Target3-5%3-5%On target
GDP Growth5.5-6.0%5.5-6.0%Supportive
Foreign ReservesImprovingStablePositive

6. Risk Scenarios & Analysis for 2026

Optimistic Scenario (30% Probability)

Inflation Range: 3.0 - 3.5% | GDP Impact: 6.0%+ growth

Key Drivers: Good rainfall patterns, stable food supply, global commodity price moderation, continued strong monetary policy management.

Baseline Scenario (50% Probability)

Inflation Range: 3.5 - 4.2% | GDP Impact: 5.5-6.0% growth

Key Drivers: Normal weather conditions, Bank of Tanzania targets met, regional stability maintained, accommodative monetary policy continues.

Risk Scenario (20% Probability)

Inflation Range: 4.5 - 6.0% | GDP Impact: 4.5-5.0% growth

Key Drivers: Drought conditions, political tensions related to potential elections, global economic shocks, currency depreciation pressures.

Specific Risk Factors & Impact Assessment

Risk FactorImpact on InflationProbabilityPotential Addition (pp)
Drought/Agricultural ShockFood prices surgeMedium+1.0 to +1.5
Political Instability (Elections)Supply disruptionsLow-Medium+0.5 to +1.0
Global Oil Price SpikeTransport, energy costsMedium+0.5 to +0.8
Currency DepreciationImport pricesLow+0.3 to +0.5
Regional Food ShortagesCross-border food pricesMedium+0.5 to +1.0
Climate Events (El Niño)Agricultural productionMedium-High+1.0 to +2.0

7. Key Monitoring Indicators for 2026

CategoryIndicators to MonitorImpact ChannelPriority
AgricultureRainfall patterns, crop yields, livestock healthDirect food prices (28.2% of CPI)Critical
EnergyGlobal oil prices, diesel/petrol local pricingTransport (14.1%), utilities (5.7%)High
CurrencyTZS/USD exchange rate, foreign reservesImport prices, goods inflationHigh
RegionalEAC inflation trends, cross-border tradeFood supply, competitive pressuresMedium-High
PolicyBoT rate decisions, fiscal policyInterest rates, demand-sideMedium
PoliticalElection preparations, stabilitySupply chains, investor confidenceMedium

8. Strategic Recommendations

For Policymakers

  • Enhance Agricultural Resilience: Invest in irrigation infrastructure, storage facilities, and climate-smart agriculture to mitigate food supply shocks.
  • Monitor Food Supply Chains: Implement early warning systems for potential shortages and price spikes.
  • Maintain Policy Credibility: Keep Bank of Tanzania policy rate aligned with 3-5% inflation target band.
  • Build Foreign Exchange Reserves: Strengthen buffers against external shocks and currency pressures.
  • Ensure Political Stability: Facilitate smooth electoral processes to maintain investor confidence.

For Businesses

  • Leverage Tanzania's Stability: Use competitive inflation advantage in regional operations and pricing strategies.
  • Hedge Food Price Risks: Diversify supply chains and consider forward contracts for agricultural commodities.
  • Plan for 3.5-4.5% Inflation: Budget conservatively with mid-range inflation assumptions.
  • Monitor Q1 2026 Data: First NBS release scheduled for February 9, 2026 will set the year's tone.

For Investors

  • Best Risk-Adjusted Environment: Tanzania offers superior inflation stability compared to regional peers.
  • Fixed-Income Attractiveness: Real returns supported by low, stable inflation and 5.75% policy rate.
  • Currency Stability: Tanzanian Shilling better positioned than regional currencies.
  • Agricultural Investment Opportunities: Supply gaps present opportunities in food production and processing sectors.

Conclusion & Key Takeaways

Tanzania's 2025 Performance Highlights

  • Best-in-class regional inflation management with 3.3% annual average
  • Exceptional core inflation control at 2.2% (down from 3.4% in 2024)
  • Most stable trajectory among all East African peers
  • ⚠️ Food inflation vulnerability remains key risk at 6.4% in 2025

2026 Outlook Summary

  • Expected Range: 3.0-4.2% (baseline: 3.8%)
  • Regional Leadership: Tanzania likely to maintain best performance if no major shocks
  • Key Risks: Agricultural production, political stability, global commodity prices
  • Supportive Factors: BoT policy credibility, stable currency, improving foreign reserves
Bottom Line: Tanzania is well-positioned to maintain low and stable inflation in 2026, continuing to outperform regional peers. The combination of strong core inflation control (2.5%) and accommodative monetary policy supporting 5.5-6% GDP growth creates a favorable environment for investment and economic development. However, vigilance on food security and weather patterns remains essential.

Data Sources: National Bureau of Statistics Tanzania (NBS), Bank of Tanzania (BoT), Trading Economics, International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Bank, Tanzania Investment and Consultant Group Limited (TICGL), Deloitte/Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU)

Next Update: January 2026 NCPI Release - February 9, 2026

Tanzania Economic Update January 2026 - Comprehensive Analysis | TICGL

Tanzania Economic Update

January 2026 - Comprehensive Analysis

📊 Report Period: End-November 2025 📅 Published: January 2026 🏛️ Source: Bank of Tanzania

Introduction

Tanzania's economy demonstrated remarkable resilience and strong performance through November 2025, with robust growth, stable inflation, and an appreciating currency. The country's macroeconomic fundamentals remain solid, supported by strong export performance, prudent fiscal management, and effective monetary policy implementation by the Bank of Tanzania.

🎯 Key Achievement: Tanzania's shilling appreciated by 8.1% year-on-year, reversing previous depreciation trends while maintaining inflation within the 3-5% target range at 3.4%.

National Debt
TZS 128.4T
+0.4% Monthly Growth
USD 51.9 billion equivalent
Shilling Exchange Rate
2,444.81
+8.1% YoY Appreciation
TZS per USD
Headline Inflation
3.4%
Within Target Range
Target: 3-5%
GDP Growth (Zanzibar)
7.1%
Above National Average
2024 Performance

1. National Debt Position

By end-November 2025, Tanzania's national debt reached approximately TZS 128.4 trillion (USD 51.9 billion), reflecting a development-financing strategy anchored largely on external resources. The debt structure demonstrates a manageable position with controlled monthly growth of 0.4%.

Debt CategoryAmount (TZS Trillion)Amount (USD Billion)Share (%)
External Debt90.036.169.7%
Domestic Debt38.415.830.3%
Total National Debt128.451.9100%

Debt by Sector

Public Sector Debt
TZS 103.5T
80.5% of total debt
Private Sector Debt
TZS 24.9T
19.5% of total debt
FX Reserves Cover
4.9 Months
USD 6.43 billion
National Debt Composition

2. External Debt Currency Composition

Tanzania's external debt of USD 36.1 billion is heavily USD-denominated at 66.8%, making exchange rate stability crucial for debt servicing costs. However, partial diversification across major currencies provides risk mitigation.

CurrencyAmount (USD Million)Percentage Share
US Dollar (USD)24,127.766.8%
Euro (EUR)6,333.617.5%
Japanese Yen (JPY)3,219.08.9%
Chinese Yuan (CNY)1,334.53.7%
Other Currencies1,112.93.1%
External Debt Currency Distribution

3. Tanzania Shilling Stability

The Tanzania Shilling demonstrated remarkable strength in November 2025, appreciating from TZS 2,460.54/USD in October to TZS 2,444.81/USD in November—a gain of TZS 15.73. The year-on-year appreciation of 8.1% reversed the depreciation trend observed in late 2024.

IndicatorOctober 2025November 2025Change
Average Exchange Rate (TZS/USD)2,460.542,444.81-15.73 TZS
IFEM Turnover (USD Million)133.7158.7+18.7%
BoT Net FX Intervention (USD Million)52.5Net Sale
Year-on-Year Change+8.1% AppreciationFrom -6.3% in Nov 2024
Shilling Exchange Rate Trend (TZS/USD)

💡 Key Insight: The shilling's appreciation reduced imported inflation pressures and lowered the TZS-equivalent cost of USD-denominated debt servicing, contributing to overall macroeconomic stability.

4. Inflation Performance

Tanzania maintained impressive price stability in November 2025, with headline inflation at 3.4%—comfortably within the Bank of Tanzania's 3-5% target range. Core inflation remained subdued at 2.3%, indicating well-anchored demand-side pressures.

Inflation MeasureNovember 2024October 2025November 2025
Headline Inflation (%)3.03.53.4
Core Inflation (%)3.32.12.3
Energy, Fuel & Utilities (%)5.74.03.8
Central Bank Rate (%)5.755.75
Inflation Trends (Year-on-Year %)

5. Current Account Performance

Tanzania's external sector strengthened markedly, with the 12-month cumulative current account deficit narrowing to USD 3.43 billion—a 34.3% improvement from USD 5.22 billion in November 2024. This improvement was driven by robust export performance and strong tourism receipts.

Current Account Deficit
USD 3.43B
↓ 34.3% YoY improvement
Services Exports
USD 6.80B
12-month cumulative
Net Services Balance
USD 1.33B
Surplus position

Services Trade Performance

Service CategoryReceipts (USD M)Payments (USD M)Share of Receipts
Travel (Tourism)3,791.4777.255.8%
Transportation2,079.32,458.930.6%
Other Business Services451.51,333.76.6%
Government Services257.3464.53.8%
Telecom, Computer & Information222.6438.63.2%
Total6,802.15,472.9100%
Services Receipts Composition (12 months to Nov 2025)

6. Tourism Performance & Zanzibar Growth

Tourism remained a critical pillar of Tanzania's economy, with Zanzibar recording exceptional performance. Tourist arrivals to Zanzibar reached 736,755 in the 12 months to November 2025, representing a robust 16.2% year-on-year increase.

Zanzibar Tourist Arrivals
736,755
↑ 16.2% YoY growth
Hotel Occupancy Rate
65%+
Consistent performance
Zanzibar GDP Growth
7.1%
2024 performance

Zanzibar Economic Indicators

IndicatorOctober 2025November 2025Status
Headline Inflation (%)4.84.6Declining
Food Inflation (%)7.26.8Moderating
Non-Food Inflation (%)3.33.1Stable
GDP Growth (2024)7.1%Above National Average

🏝️ Tourism Impact: Zanzibar's tourism sector contributed USD 3.79 billion (55.8% of total services receipts) to Tanzania's foreign exchange earnings, making it the largest single source of service exports.

7. Financial Markets Performance

Tanzania's financial markets reflected strong liquidity and investor confidence in November 2025. Government securities auctions were heavily oversubscribed, with Treasury Bills attracting 2.3× oversubscription and Treasury Bonds recording approximately 3.0× oversubscription.

Treasury Bills Performance

IndicatorValue
Total Tender SizeTZS 352.0 billion
Total Bids ReceivedTZS 798.4 billion
Amount AcceptedTZS 369.2 billion
Oversubscription Ratio2.3 times
Weighted Average Yield6.25%
Previous Month Yield6.27%

Domestic Financing via Securities

Government Domestic Financing - November 2025
Treasury Bonds
TZS 267.7B
60.5% of total financing
Treasury Bills
TZS 175.0B
39.5% of total financing
Total Raised
TZS 442.7B
Strong domestic market

8. Domestic Debt Creditor Structure

Tanzania's government domestic debt of TZS 38.36 trillion is anchored by a stable and diversified creditor base, with institutional investors—commercial banks (28.6%) and pension funds (27.4%)—accounting for 56.0% of total holdings.

Creditor CategoryAmount (TZS Billion)Percentage Share
Commercial Banks10,979.928.6%
Pension Funds10,503.327.4%
Bank of Tanzania (BoT)5,671.514.8%
Other Financial Institutions5,596.814.6%
Retail Investors5,609.814.6%
Total38,361.3100%
Domestic Debt Creditor Distribution

9. Key Takeaways & Policy Implications

Strengths & Opportunities

Macroeconomic Stability

Controlled inflation, appreciating currency, and adequate foreign reserves demonstrate strong fundamentals.

Tourism Recovery

Robust growth in arrivals and receipts, particularly in Zanzibar, providing crucial FX inflows.

External Sector Improvement

Current account deficit narrowed by 34.3%, driven by strong export performance.

Debt Sustainability

Moderate debt growth (0.4% monthly) and diversified creditor base support fiscal stability.

Financial Market Depth

Heavy oversubscription of government securities reflects strong investor confidence.

Monetary Policy Effectiveness

BoT's interventions successfully stabilized the shilling while maintaining accommodative stance.

Risks & Challenges

Currency Risk

High USD-denominated debt (66.8%) creates vulnerability to exchange rate fluctuations.

Food Inflation (Zanzibar)

Elevated at 6.8% due to supply constraints and import dependence.

External Debt Concentration

External debt accounts for 69.7% of total, requiring continued prudent management.

Policy Recommendation: Maintain current prudent fiscal and monetary policies, continue diversifying export base beyond tourism and minerals, and gradually increase domestic debt share to reduce FX vulnerability while supporting infrastructure development.

📋 Methodology & Data Sources

Primary Sources:

  • Bank of Tanzania (BoT) Monthly Economic Review - November 2025
  • National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) - Monthly Reports
  • Ministry of Finance and Planning - Debt Bulletins
  • Revolutionary Government of Zanzibar - Economic Statistics

Reporting Period: End-November 2025 (12-month cumulative data where indicated)

Publication Date: January 2026

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