How much revenue did Tanzania's central government collect in April 2026?

Tanzania's central government collected TZS 3,111.97 billion in April 2026, equivalent to 107.2 percent of the TZS 2,902.66 billion target, driven mainly by taxes on imports and income tax.

How much did Tanzania's central government spend in April 2026?

Total central government expenditure (cheques issued) was TZS 3,457.22 billion in April 2026, against an estimate of TZS 4,139.26 billion, equivalent to 83.5 percent budget execution, with development expenditure significantly under-executed at 52.5 percent of target.

What is Tanzania's largest source of central government tax revenue?

In April 2026, income tax was Tanzania's largest tax revenue source at TZS 849.32 billion, followed closely by taxes on imports at TZS 1,060.67 billion, which was the single largest revenue line overall.

How much of Tanzania's central government revenue is tax revenue?

In April 2026, tax revenue of TZS 2,690.63 billion made up about 86.5 percent of central government revenue of TZS 3,111.97 billion, with non-tax revenue of TZS 421.34 billion making up the remainder.

What is Tanzania's cumulative central government revenue for FY2025/26 so far?

For the period July 2025 to April 2026, central government revenue reached TZS 33,294.80 billion (actual), against a full-year budget of TZS 36,857.73 billion, and above the ten-month estimate of TZS 31,402.19 billion.

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Executive Summary

Central Government Budgetary Operations: April 2026 at a Glance

Tanzania's central government outperformed its revenue target in April 2026, collecting TZS 3,111.97 billion against a monthly target of TZS 2,902.66 billion — 7.2 percent (TZS 209.3 billion) above target. The overperformance was driven almost entirely by tax revenue, which came in at TZS 2,690.63 billion, 10.2 percent above target, powered by taxes on imports (117.3% of target) and income tax (114.5% of target). Non-tax revenue was the one soft spot, collecting TZS 421.34 billion against a TZS 461.43 billion target — 8.7 percent short.

On the spending side, total central government expenditure of TZS 3,457.22 billion was 16.5 percent below the TZS 4,139.26 billion estimate for the month. Recurrent expenditure (wages, interest, and other recurrent costs) was executed close to plan at TZS 2,696.64 billion, but development expenditure was severely under-executed — only TZS 760.58 billion of a planned TZS 1,448.48 billion was spent (52.5% execution), largely because foreign-financed development projects disbursed just TZS 137.69 billion of a TZS 607.49 billion estimate. The combination of strong revenue collection and restrained (particularly development) spending narrowed the fiscal balance before grants to a deficit of TZS 214.93 billion in April, well inside the TZS 1,110.96 billion deficit that had been projected.

Must-Read TICGL Analysis

What's Next for Tanzania's Economy? The Policy Gaps Keeping TZS 1 Trillion Out of Reach by 2050

Strong tax revenue collection is only half the fiscal story — persistent under-execution of development expenditure, especially foreign-financed projects, is one of the structural issues TICGL examines in its flagship analysis of the policy gaps standing between Tanzania and its Vision 2050 (Dira 2050) ambitions.

Read the full analysis →

1. Central Government Revenue — April 2026

Central government revenue reached TZS 3,111.97 billion in April 2026, equivalent to 96.0 percent of total government revenue (which also includes Local Government Authority own-source collections of TZS 130.32 billion) and 7.2 percent above the monthly target. Tax revenue continued to perform strongly, reflecting ongoing improvements in tax administration and compliance.

TZS 3,112.0bn

Central Govt Revenue

▲ 7.2% above target

TZS 2,690.6bn

Tax Revenue

▲ 10.2% above target

TZS 421.3bn

Non-Tax Revenue

▼ 8.7% below target

Chart 1 — Central Government Revenue by Source, April 2026 (Billions of TZS)

Source: Ministry of Finance and Bank of Tanzania computations (Table A2, cheques issued). 2026 actual figures are provisional.

Table 1 — Central Government Revenue by Source, April 2026 (Billions of TZS)
Revenue Source	April 2026 Estimate	April 2026 Actual	Variance	% of Target
Taxes on imports	904.55	1,060.67	+156.12	117.3%
Sales/VAT and excise on local goods	612.06	585.43	-26.63	95.6%
Income taxes	741.58	849.32	+107.74	114.5%
Other taxes	183.03	195.21	+12.18	106.7%
Tax revenue subtotal	2,441.23	2,690.63	+249.40	110.2%
Non-tax revenue	461.43	421.34	-40.09	91.3%
Central government revenue	2,902.66	3,111.97	+209.31	107.2%
LGA own sources	125.65	130.32	+4.67	103.7%
Total revenue (incl. LGAs)	3,028.30	3,242.29	+213.99	107.1%

Key insight: Taxes on imports (TZS 1,060.67bn) was the single largest revenue line in April 2026, overtaking income tax (TZS 849.32bn) — together these two lines contributed nearly 62 percent of central government revenue. VAT/excise on local goods was the only tax category to miss its target.

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2. Central Government Revenue — Cumulative FY2025/26 (July 2025–April 2026)

Looking at the ten months to April 2026, central government revenue totalled TZS 33,294.80 billion (actual), ahead of the cumulative estimate of TZS 31,402.19 billion, and tracking toward the full-year budget of TZS 36,857.73 billion.

Chart 2 — Central Government Revenue: Full-Year Budget vs. Cumulative Performance (Billions of TZS)

Source: Ministry of Finance and Bank of Tanzania computations. Cumulative = July 2025–April 2026.

Table 2 — Revenue: Annual Budget vs. Cumulative Outturn, July 2025–April 2026 (Billions of TZS)
Revenue Item	2025/26 Full-Year Budget	Cumulative Estimate	Cumulative Actual	% of Cumulative Target
Taxes on imports	11,562.97	9,603.07	10,271.66	107.0%
Sales/VAT and excise on local goods	7,016.47	5,592.61	5,395.25	96.5%
Income taxes	11,367.88	9,113.54	11,163.31	122.5%
Other taxes	4,887.70	1,931.79	1,897.97	98.3%
Tax revenue	32,176.00	26,241.01	28,728.19	109.5%
Non-tax revenue	4,681.73	5,161.18	4,566.61	88.5%
Central government revenue	36,857.73	31,402.19	33,294.80	106.0%
LGA own sources	1,680.51	1,402.34	1,353.57	96.5%
Total revenue (incl. LGAs)	40,466.13	32,804.53	34,648.37	105.6%

Income tax has been the standout cumulative performer, running 22.5 percent above the ten-month target and already exceeding 98 percent of the full-year budget with two months of the fiscal year remaining — a sign that either economic activity or compliance is significantly outperforming the assumptions used to set the 2025/26 budget. Non-tax revenue and "other taxes" are the two areas trailing target on a cumulative basis.

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3. Central Government Expenditure — April 2026

Total central government expenditure (cheques issued) was TZS 3,457.22 billion in April 2026, against an estimate of TZS 4,139.26 billion — 83.5 percent budget execution. Recurrent expenditure was executed almost exactly to plan, while development expenditure fell well short.

TZS 3,457.2bn

Total Expenditure

▼ 83.5% of target

TZS 2,696.6bn

Recurrent Expenditure

▲ 100.2% of target

TZS 760.6bn

Development Expenditure

▼ only 52.5% of target

Chart 3 — Central Government Expenditure by Category, April 2026 (Billions of TZS)

Source: Ministry of Finance and Bank of Tanzania computations. 2026 actual figures are provisional.

Table 3 — Central Government Expenditure, April 2026 (Billions of TZS)
Expenditure Category	April 2026 Estimate	April 2026 Actual	Variance	% of Target
Wages and salaries	1,100.16	1,134.39	+34.23	103.1%
Interest payments — domestic	311.98	304.24	-7.74	97.5%
Interest payments — foreign	301.80	226.05	-75.75	74.9%
Interest payments subtotal	613.79	530.29	-83.49	86.4%
Other goods, services and transfers	976.84	1,031.96	+55.12	105.6%
Recurrent expenditure	2,690.78	2,696.64	+5.86	100.2%
Development expenditure — local	840.98	622.89	-218.10	74.1%
Development expenditure — foreign	607.49	137.69	-469.80	22.7%
Development expenditure & net lending	1,448.48	760.58	-687.90	52.5%
Total expenditure	4,139.26	3,457.22	-682.04	83.5%

Key insight: Foreign-financed development spending was the weakest link, executing at just 22.7 percent of its April target — a shortfall of TZS 469.8 billion in a single month. Recurrent spending, by contrast, was fully executed, with wages and other recurrent transfers slightly overshooting plan.

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4. Central Government Expenditure — Cumulative FY2025/26 (July 2025–April 2026)

Cumulative expenditure for the ten months to April 2026 stood at TZS 38,792.07 billion, against a ten-month estimate of TZS 40,402.96 billion (96.0% execution) and a full-year budget of TZS 48,774.99 billion.

Chart 4 — Expenditure: Full-Year Budget vs. Cumulative Performance (Billions of TZS)

Source: Ministry of Finance and Bank of Tanzania computations. Cumulative = July 2025–April 2026.

Table 4 — Expenditure: Annual Budget vs. Cumulative Outturn, July 2025–April 2026 (Billions of TZS)
Expenditure Item	2025/26 Full-Year Budget	Cumulative Estimate	Cumulative Actual	% of Cumulative Target
Wages and salaries	10,917.47	10,890.00	10,976.94	100.8%
Interest payments (domestic + foreign)	6,493.72	5,600.39	4,679.59	83.6%
Other goods, services and transfers	7,088.61	9,103.63	9,968.60	109.5%
Recurrent expenditure	31,281.26	25,594.01	25,625.13	100.1%
Development expenditure — local	12,117.83	10,066.44	10,193.05	101.3%
Development expenditure — foreign	5,375.90	4,742.51	2,973.90	62.7%
Development expenditure & net lending	17,493.73	14,808.95	13,166.94	88.9%
Total expenditure	48,774.99	40,402.96	38,792.07	96.0%

On a cumulative basis, the shortfall is concentrated in foreign-financed development expenditure, running at just 62.7 percent of its ten-month target — a persistent pattern rather than a one-month event, pointing to structural disbursement delays from external development partners rather than a single-month anomaly. Locally-financed development spending and recurrent expenditure have both tracked at or slightly above plan.

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5. Fiscal Balance: Revenue Minus Expenditure

Because revenue outperformed target while expenditure — particularly development spending — under-executed, the fiscal balance before grants improved markedly relative to plan in April 2026: a deficit of TZS 214.93 billion actual, against an estimated deficit of TZS 1,110.96 billion. The same pattern holds cumulatively for the ten months to April 2026.

Chart 5 — Central Government Revenue vs. Expenditure, April 2026 & Cumulative FY2025/26 (Billions of TZS)

Source: TICGL computations based on Ministry of Finance and Bank of Tanzania data (Table A2).

Table 5 — Fiscal Balance Before Grants (Billions of TZS)
Period	Total Revenue (incl. LGAs)	Total Expenditure	Balance Before Grants
April 2026 — Estimate	3,028.30	4,139.26	-1,110.96
April 2026 — Actual	3,242.29	3,457.22	-214.93
Cumulative Jul-25–Apr-26 — Estimate	32,804.53	40,402.96	-7,598.43
Cumulative Jul-25–Apr-26 — Actual	34,648.37	38,792.07	-4,143.71
Full-Year 2025/26 Budget	40,466.13	48,774.99	-8,308.86

The cumulative fiscal balance before grants (-TZS 4,143.71 billion) is currently running at roughly half the size of the estimated ten-month deficit (-TZS 7,598.43 billion) — a combination of stronger-than-budgeted revenue collection and slower-than-planned execution of foreign-financed development projects. This figure excludes grants and cash/other adjustments, which further affect the final overall balance and its financing.

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6. Budget Execution Scorecard — April 2026 (% of Monthly Target Achieved)

The chart below ranks each major revenue and expenditure line by how close actual April 2026 performance came to its monthly target (100% = on target).

Chart 6 — Budget Execution Rate by Line Item, April 2026 (% of Target)

Source: TICGL computations based on Ministry of Finance and Bank of Tanzania data. Bars above 100% indicate over-performance (green for revenue, amber caution for expenditure over-runs); bars below 100% indicate under-performance.

Chart 7 — Composition of Central Government Expenditure, April 2026 Actual

Source: TICGL computations based on Table A2 (Ministry of Finance / Bank of Tanzania)

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Muhtasari kwa Kiswahili

Mwezi Aprili 2026, Serikali Kuu ya Tanzania ilikusanya mapato ya Shilingi bilioni 3,111.97, sawa na asilimia 107.2 ya lengo la mwezi lililokuwa Shilingi bilioni 2,902.66. Ukusanyaji huu mzuri ulichangiwa zaidi na kodi za uagizaji bidhaa nje ya nchi (asilimia 117.3 ya lengo) na kodi ya mapato (asilimia 114.5 ya lengo), huku mapato yasiyo ya kikodi pekee yakishindwa kufikia lengo (asilimia 91.3 tu).

Kwa upande wa matumizi, Serikali ilitumia jumla ya Shilingi bilioni 3,457.22, sawa na asilimia 83.5 tu ya lengo la Shilingi bilioni 4,139.26. Matumizi ya kawaida (mishahara, riba na uendeshaji) yalitekelezwa karibu kikamilifu (asilimia 100.2), lakini matumizi ya maendeleo yalisuasua sana, yakifikia asilimia 52.5 tu ya lengo — hasa kutokana na miradi ya maendeleo inayofadhiliwa na wahisani wa nje kutolewa kwa kiwango cha asilimia 22.7 pekee ya lengo la mwezi huo.

Kwa mtazamo wa miezi kumi (Julai 2025 hadi Aprili 2026), mapato ya Serikali Kuu yalifikia Shilingi bilioni 33,294.80, yakizidi lengo la kipindi hicho, huku matumizi yakiwa Shilingi bilioni 38,792.07, chini kidogo ya lengo. Hali hii ilipunguza pengo la nakisi ya bajeti (kabla ya misaada) hadi Shilingi bilioni 4,143.71, ikilinganishwa na nakisi iliyokadiriwa ya Shilingi bilioni 7,598.43.

Kwa uchambuzi zaidi wa kina kuhusu changamoto za kisera zinazoathiri utekelezaji wa miradi ya maendeleo na malengo ya Dira 2050, soma makala kamili ya TICGL: What's Next for Tanzania's Economy?

Primary source: Bank of Tanzania, Monthly Economic Review, June 2026 (Table A2 — Central Government Operations, Cheques Issued, Tanzania Mainland), ISSN 0856-6844, www.bot.go.tz, using Ministry of Finance data. Analysis and commentary by TICGL Economic Research. All April 2026 and cumulative FY2025/26 actual figures are provisional and subject to revision. This page covers central government revenue and expenditure only; financing (foreign and domestic borrowing), grants, debt, inflation, monetary policy and external sector data are addressed in separate TICGL analyses.

Executive Summary

Tanzania's financial markets in May 2026 reflected ample banking-system liquidity and a Bank of Tanzania holding steady on policy amid a difficult external backdrop shaped by the Middle East conflict and elevated oil prices. Headline inflation edged up to 4.2 percent, staying comfortably inside the national, EAC and SADC convergence bands, while the Bank held its Central Bank Rate at 5.75 percent for a third consecutive quarter. The Government securities market saw short-term paper heavily oversubscribed even as yields continued to ease, while the interbank cash market saw lower turnover and softer rates — both consistent with comfortable bank liquidity positions.

Headline Inflation (May 2026)

4.2%

▲ from 4.0% in Apr-26

Central Bank Rate

5.75%

Held for Q4 2025/26

7-Day IBCM Rate (avg)

5.92%

Within ±150bps corridor

Overall T-Bills Yield

4.74%

▼ from 5.06% in Apr-26

Overall IBCM Rate

6.14%

▼ from 6.26% in Apr-26

M3 Money Supply Growth

25.2%

▲ from 22.0% in Apr-26

Private Sector Credit Growth

23.2%

vs 23.6% in Apr-26

TZS/USD Exchange Rate (avg)

2,616.88

+3.02% y/y appreciation

Government securities market: Two Treasury bills auctions (combined tender TZS 498.1bn) attracted bids of TZS 1,330.3bn — over 2.6x oversubscribed — while 15- and 20-year Treasury bonds drew TZS 324.9bn in bids against a TZS 401.8bn tender, pointing to soft demand at the long end even as short-term yields fell.
Interbank cash market (IBCM): Total transactions eased to TZS 1,732.7bn from TZS 2,567.8bn in April, with 7-day tenor transactions dominating at 63.8% of volume; the overall IBCM rate slipped to 6.14% from 6.26%, tracking comfortably within the Bank's policy corridor.
Monetary policy transmission: The narrowed ±150bps CBR corridor is working as intended — the 7-day IBCM rate averaged 5.92% in May, staying tightly anchored around the 5.75% policy rate.
Exchange rate: The shilling depreciated marginally month-on-month to an average of TZS 2,616.88/USD in May 2026, but strengthened by 3.02% on an annual basis — a reversal from the 3.82% depreciation recorded a year earlier.

Must-Read TICGL Analysis

What's Next for Tanzania's Economy? The Policy Gaps Keeping $1 Trillion Out of Reach by 2050

Before diving into the market data below, read TICGL's flagship analysis on the structural and policy gaps standing between Tanzania and its Vision 2050 ambitions — essential context for interpreting this month's monetary, fiscal and market developments.

Read the Full Analysis →

1. Inflation Developments

Headline inflation rose to 4.2 percent in May 2026, from 4.0 percent in April 2026 and 3.2 percent a year earlier, remaining within the national target band and the SADC/EAC convergence benchmarks. The increase was driven mainly by the pass-through of elevated global fuel prices to transport costs — transport inflation jumped to 11.9 percent in May from 9.2 percent in April. Core inflation (excluding unprocessed food and energy) rose to 3.4 percent, remaining the principal contributor to headline inflation at 2.6 percentage points. Food inflation eased marginally to 5.6 percent as staple crop prices stabilised, while energy, fuel and utilities inflation moderated to 5.0 percent even though retail pump prices stayed elevated on Gulf-conflict disruption to global oil markets.

Chart 1: Tanzania Inflation Trend — Headline, Food, Energy & Core (Jan 2025 – May 2026)

Source: National Bureau of Statistics; Bank of Tanzania computations.

Table 1: Inflation Development — Selected Groups (Annual % Change)
Main Group	Weight (%)	May-25	Apr-26	May-26
All items (headline inflation)	100.0	3.2	4.0	4.2
Food and non-alcoholic beverages	28.2	5.6	5.7	5.6
Core inflation	73.9	2.1	3.1	3.4
Non-core inflation	26.1	5.6	6.3	6.3
Energy, fuel and utilities	5.7	6.1	5.3	5.0
Transport	14.1	1.7	9.2	11.9
Housing, water, electricity, gas & other fuels	15.1	3.4	1.7	0.7
Services	37.2	1.0	4.0	4.7
Goods	62.8	4.2	4.0	4.0

Source: National Bureau of Statistics and Bank of Tanzania computations (Table 2.1.1, BOT MER June 2026).

TICGL take: With headline inflation still well inside target and adequate domestic food supply plus fuel subsidies (introduced April–May 2026) cushioning cost pressures, the Bank of Tanzania retains room to keep policy accommodative. The key watch-item is transport/energy pass-through if the Strait of Hormuz disruption persists.

2. Monetary Policy Stance

At its April 2026 meeting, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) maintained the Central Bank Rate (CBR) at 5.75 percent for the quarter ending June 2026, balancing inflation and growth risks amid heightened Middle East geopolitical tensions. The CBR corridor was narrowed to ±150 basis points (from ±200bps) to sharpen policy transmission. The 7-day interbank cash market rate averaged 5.92 percent in May — comfortably inside the corridor — confirming effective transmission of the policy signal. The Bank continued to inject liquidity mainly via reverse repo operations, with sales rising to TZS 399.5 billion in May from TZS 379.7 billion in April, underscoring an accommodative posture in support of credit growth.

Chart 2: Extended Broad Money (M3) & Private Sector Credit — Outstanding Stock

Source: Bank of Tanzania and banks (Table A3).

Chart 3: Brent Crude Oil Price — Monthly Average (USD/barrel)

Source: World Bank Commodity Markets; U.S. EIA (Table A8).

3. Financial Markets Deep Dive: Government Securities & Interbank Cash Market

This section is TICGL's primary focus for the June 2026 review cycle: a detailed look at the two markets that most directly signal domestic liquidity conditions and the cost of government borrowing — the Government securities market (Treasury bills and bonds) and the Interbank cash market (IBCM).

3.1 Government Securities Market

In May 2026, the Government securities market performed satisfactorily. Short-term securities registered high oversubscription, more than offsetting undersubscription at the longer end of the yield curve, in line with adequate liquidity in the banking system.

Table 2: May 2026 Auction Results Summary
Instrument	Tender Size (TZS bn)	Bids Received (TZS bn)	Successful (TZS bn)	Subscription Rate	Weighted Avg. Yield
Treasury Bills (combined, 2 auctions)	498.1	1,330.3	499.8	267%	4.74% (from 5.06% in Apr-26)
Treasury Bonds — 15-year	165.5	324.9 (combined)	235.1 (combined)	81% (combined)	10.39%
Treasury Bonds — 20-year	236.3	—	—	—	10.43%

Source: Bank of Tanzania (Section 2.4, BOT MER June 2026). The 15- and 20-year bond tenders were combined at TZS 401.8bn against TZS 324.9bn in bids and TZS 235.1bn allotted.

Chart 4: Treasury Bills Yields by Tenor (Weighted Average Yield, %) — Mar 2025 to May 2026

Source: Bank of Tanzania (Table A4: Interest Rates Structure).

Chart 5: Treasury Bonds Yield to Maturity by Tenor (%) — Mar 2025 to May 2026

Source: Bank of Tanzania (Table A4: Interest Rates Structure).

Chart 6: Tanzania Government Securities Yield Curve — Snapshot, May 2026

Source: Bank of Tanzania (Table A4).

Table 3: Treasury Bills & Bonds Weighted Average Yields (%), Selected Months
Tenor	May-25	Sep-25	Jan-26	Mar-26	Apr-26	May-26
35-day T-bill	6.50	6.20	5.36	4.20	3.81	3.23
91-day T-bill	7.50	6.81	5.73	4.23	4.02	3.78
182-day T-bill	8.24	6.56	5.85	5.69	5.46	5.23
364-day T-bill	8.92	5.99	6.21	5.80	5.72	5.63
Overall T-bills rate	8.89	6.03	5.89	5.21	5.06	4.74
2-year bond	12.08	12.17	10.05	8.36	8.36	8.36
5-year bond	12.94	12.48	10.54	10.54	9.54	9.54
10-year bond	14.26	13.74	11.30	11.30	9.40	9.40
15-year bond	14.63	13.91	12.08	10.78	10.78	10.39
20-year bond	15.11	13.55	12.02	10.71	10.71	10.43
25-year bond	15.29	13.19	13.19	11.99	11.99	11.99

Source: Bank of Tanzania (Table A4: Interest Rates Structure, BOT MER June 2026).

TICGL take: The short end of the curve has fallen sharply — the overall T-bills rate has more than halved from 8.89% in May 2025 to 4.74% in May 2026 — reflecting ample liquidity and strong appetite for short-dated paper. The long end has also compressed materially (25-year bonds from 15.29% to 11.99%), but oversubscription at the short end versus undersubscription at longer tenors signals investors still prefer to stay short given global uncertainty. This is a favourable window for government to term out short-dated domestic debt, and for private issuers benchmarking against the sovereign curve.

3.2 Interbank Cash Market (IBCM)

The Interbank Cash Market continued to facilitate liquidity distribution among banks, with total market transactions of TZS 1,732.7 billion in May 2026, down from TZS 2,567.8 billion in April. Transactions with a 7-day maturity continued to dominate, accounting for 63.8 percent of total volume. The overall IBCM rate eased slightly to 6.14 percent from 6.26 percent in April 2026, tracking within the Bank's ±150bps CBR corridor and confirming smooth policy transmission.

Chart 7: Interbank Cash Market Rates — Overnight, 2–7 Day & Overall (%) — Mar 2025 to May 2026

Source: Bank of Tanzania (Table A4: Interest Rates Structure).

Chart 8: IBCM Total Transactions vs. Reverse Repo Sold (TZS bn) — Apr vs May 2026

Source: Bank of Tanzania (Section 2.2 & 2.4).

Chart 9: IBCM Volume Share by Maturity — May 2026

Source: Bank of Tanzania (Chart 2.4.2).

Table 4: Interbank Cash Market Rates by Maturity (%)
Maturity	Mar-26	Apr-26	May-26
Overnight	6.17	6.15	5.94
2 to 7 days	6.25	6.18	5.96
8 to 14 days	6.53	6.33	6.48
15 to 30 days	6.85	6.79	6.58
31 to 60 days	7.20	6.92	6.79
61 to 90 days	8.50	7.12	6.79
91 to 180 days	8.07	8.77	7.27
Overall IBCM rate	6.32	6.26	6.14

Source: Bank of Tanzania (Table A4). REPO rate held at 5.75%; Reverse REPO rate at 5.75%; Lombard rate at 7.75% throughout the period.

Table 5: Reverse Repo Operations (TZS billion)
Period	Reverse Repo Sold
April 2026	379.7
May 2026	399.5

Source: Bank of Tanzania (Section 2.2, Chart 2.2.2).

TICGL take: Lower IBCM turnover alongside a slightly lower overall rate suggests banks entered May 2026 with more comfortable liquidity buffers, reducing the need for interbank borrowing even as the Bank kept injecting liquidity through reverse repos. The dominance of 7-day tenor transactions (63.8% of volume) is consistent with banks managing statutory reserve requirements around the CBR corridor rather than taking directional liquidity positions.

3.3 Interbank Foreign Exchange Market (IFEM)

Liquidity conditions in the IFEM remained adequate in May 2026, supported by seasonal currency inflows, particularly from gold exports. Total market turnover rose to USD 119.3 million from USD 64.6 million in April, and the Bank intervened by auctioning USD 44 million (up from USD 15.3 million), in line with its Foreign Exchange Intervention Policy. Despite higher forex liquidity, the shilling depreciated marginally month-on-month, trading at an average of TZS 2,616.88/USD versus TZS 2,612.46/USD in April — though it strengthened 3.02% on an annual basis, a turnaround from 3.82% annual depreciation a year earlier.

Chart 10: TZS/USD Exchange Rate — End of Period, May 2025 to May 2026

Source: Bank of Tanzania (Table A10).

Table 6: IFEM Snapshot — April vs May 2026
Indicator	Apr-26	May-26
Total market turnover (USD million)	64.6	119.3
BOT net auction/sale (USD million)	15.3	44.0
Weighted average exchange rate (TZS/USD)	2,612.46	2,616.88

Source: Bank of Tanzania (Section 2.4, Chart 2.4.3).

Muhtasari kwa Kiswahili

Ripoti ya Kila Mwezi ya Kiuchumi ya Benki Kuu ya Tanzania (BOT) ya Juni 2026 inaonesha kuwa mfumuko wa bei nchini Tanzania uliongezeka hadi asilimia 4.2 mwezi Mei 2026, kutoka asilimia 4.0 mwezi Aprili, ukisukumwa hasa na ongezeko la bei za mafuta duniani kufuatia mgogoro wa Mashariki ya Kati. Hata hivyo, kiwango hicho bado kiko ndani ya lengo la Taifa na vigezo vya EAC na SADC.

Sera ya fedha: Benki Kuu iliendelea kutunza Kiwango cha Riba cha Benki Kuu (CBR) katika asilimia 5.75 kwa robo ya mwaka inayoishia Juni 2026.
Soko la Hatifungani za Serikali: Dhamana za muda mfupi (Treasury bills) ziliendelea kupokelewa vizuri sana na wawekezaji (ombi la TZS bilioni 1,330.3 dhidi ya lengo la TZS bilioni 498.1), huku riba (yield) ikiendelea kushuka hadi wastani wa asilimia 4.74. Hatifungani za muda mrefu (miaka 15 na 20) zilipokea maombi kidogo zaidi ya lengo.
Soko la Fedha baina ya Benki (Interbank Cash Market): Miamala ilipungua hadi TZS bilioni 1,732.7 kutoka TZS bilioni 2,567.8 mwezi Aprili, huku riba ya jumla ikishuka hadi asilimia 6.14. Miamala ya siku 7 iliendelea kutawala soko, ikichukua asilimia 63.8 ya miamala yote.
Soko la Fedha za Kigeni baina ya Benki (IFEM): Mzunguko wa fedha za kigeni uliongezeka hadi Dola milioni 119.3 kutoka Dola milioni 64.6 mwezi Aprili, huku Shilingi ikishuka kidogo hadi wastani wa TZS 2,616.88 kwa Dola moja, lakini ikiimarika kwa asilimia 3.02 ukilinganisha na mwaka jana.

Kwa uchambuzi wa kina zaidi kuhusu mapengo ya kisera yanayozuia uchumi wa Tanzania kufikia thamani ya Dola trilioni 1 ifikapo 2050, soma makala maalum ya TICGL: What's Next for Tanzania's Economy?

Primary source: Bank of Tanzania, Monthly Economic Review, June 2026 (covering data through May 2026). Compiled, analysed and contextualised by the TICGL Research Desk (Tanzania Investment and Consultant Group Ltd / Tanzania Economic Research Institute). Figures marked "p" are provisional and "r" are revised, per BOT convention. This page is for general information purposes and does not constitute investment advice.

Executive Summary

Tanzania's bank interest rate structure held broadly stable through May 2026, with modest declines across both lending and deposit rates. The overall lending rate was little changed at 15.32 percent (from 15.33% in April), while the negotiated rate for prime customers eased more sharply to 11.90 percent from 12.56 percent — a signal that banks are competing harder for their best borrowers even as headline pricing stays flat. On the deposit side, the overall time deposit rate eased to 8.43 percent from 8.54 percent, while the negotiated deposit rate moderated to 11.25 percent. The resulting short-term interest rate spread narrowed to 5.22 percentage points, from 5.50 points in April 2026 — the tightest spread recorded since at least March 2025, pointing to gradually improving intermediation efficiency in the banking sector.

Overall Lending Rate

15.32%

vs 15.33% in Apr-26

Overall Time Deposit Rate

8.43%

▼ from 8.54% in Apr-26

Short-Term Interest Spread

5.22 pts

▼ from 5.50 pts in Apr-26

Negotiated Lending Rate

11.90%

▼ from 12.56% in Apr-26

Negotiated Deposit Rate

11.25%

▼ from 11.37% in Apr-26

Savings Deposit Rate

2.85%

▼ from 2.91% in Apr-26

12-Month Deposit Rate

10.17%

▲ from 9.81% in Apr-26

Long-Term Lending (3–5yr)

14.43%

▼ from 14.56% in Apr-26

Lending rates: Short-term lending (up to 1 year) eased to 15.38% while medium-term (1–2 year) lending actually rose to 17.11% from 17.19% — the highest tenor on the curve — reflecting banks pricing in duration risk more aggressively than short-dated risk.
Deposit rates: The 12-month deposit rate rose to a 15-month high of 10.17%, even as the overall (blended) time deposit rate fell — suggesting banks are paying up more selectively for longer-dated, stickier deposits while short-tenor deposit pricing eased.
Spread compression: The lending-deposit spread has now narrowed for two consecutive months (5.85 → 5.50 → 5.22 percentage points since March 2026), consistent with the Bank of Tanzania's accommodative liquidity stance feeding through to cheaper credit intermediation.
Negotiated vs. posted rates: The gap between the overall lending rate (15.32%) and the negotiated lending rate (11.90%) has widened to 3.42 percentage points — the largest gap in the 15-month series — underscoring how much more competitively banks price loans for their strongest corporate and prime clients versus posted/list rates.

Must-Read TICGL Analysis

What's Next for Tanzania's Economy? The Policy Gaps Keeping $1 Trillion Out of Reach by 2050

Before diving into the interest rate data below, read TICGL's flagship analysis on the structural and policy gaps standing between Tanzania and its Vision 2050 ambitions — essential context for interpreting the cost of credit and bank intermediation trends discussed here.

Read the Full Analysis →

1. Lending Interest Rates by Tenor

Tanzania's overall lending rate stood at 15.32 percent in May 2026, essentially flat month-on-month. Beneath that headline figure, however, the lending curve by tenor tells a more nuanced story: short-term lending (up to 1 year) eased to 15.38%, medium-term (1–2 year) lending climbed to a series-high 17.11%, medium-term (2–3 year) lending eased slightly to 15.60%, long-term (3–5 year) lending fell to 14.43%, and term loans over 5 years eased to 14.08%. This "hump" in the middle of the curve — where 1–2 year money is priced above both shorter and longer tenors — suggests banks see the greatest duration/credit risk in that medium horizon.

Chart 1: Tanzania Lending Rates by Tenor (%) — March 2025 to May 2026

Source: Bank of Tanzania (Table A4: Interest Rates Structure).

Table 1: Lending Interest Rates by Tenor (%), Selected Months
Tenor	May-25	Sep-25	Jan-26	Mar-26	Apr-26	May-26
Short-term (up to 1 year)	15.96	15.52	15.49	15.45	15.31	15.38
Medium-term (1–2 years)	16.35	16.26	16.73	16.53	17.19	17.11
Medium-term (2–3 years)	15.24	15.19	14.97	15.31	15.63	15.60
Long-term (3–5 years)	14.19	14.26	14.05	13.95	14.56	14.43
Term loans (over 5 years)	14.17	14.66	14.24	14.30	13.96	14.08
Overall lending rate	15.18	15.18	15.10	15.11	15.33	15.32

Source: Bank of Tanzania (Table A4: Interest Rates Structure, BOT MER June 2026).

TICGL take: The medium-term (1–2 year) segment is now the most expensive tenor on the lending curve at 17.11% — over 250 basis points above the overall average. For businesses planning working-capital or asset-financing facilities, structuring around shorter (≤1 year, rolled over) or longer (3–5 year) tenors may currently offer materially better pricing than 1–2 year facilities.

2. Deposit Interest Rates by Tenor

The overall time deposit rate eased to 8.43 percent in May 2026 from 8.54 percent in April. Within the deposit ladder, shorter tenors softened — the 1-month rate fell to 8.34% and the 3-month rate rose to 10.52% (its highest point in the 15-month series) — while the 12-month rate climbed to 10.17%, its highest level since at least March 2025. The savings deposit rate, which anchors the bottom of the curve, eased to 2.85%.

Chart 2: Tanzania Deposit Rates by Tenor (%) — March 2025 to May 2026

Source: Bank of Tanzania (Table A4: Interest Rates Structure).

Table 2: Deposit Interest Rates by Tenor (%), Selected Months
Tenor	May-25	Sep-25	Jan-26	Mar-26	Apr-26	May-26
Savings deposit rate	2.52	2.92	2.94	2.89	2.91	2.85
1-month deposit	10.47	9.65	8.96	8.65	9.06	8.34
2-month deposit	9.25	9.28	9.56	9.34	9.67	8.65
3-month deposit	9.85	9.61	9.43	9.56	9.01	10.52
6-month deposit	9.82	10.12	10.20	10.51	10.35	9.87
12-month deposit	9.72	9.84	9.70	9.60	9.81	10.17
24-month deposit	7.49	7.63	7.11	7.03	8.20	7.69
Overall time deposit rate	8.58	8.50	8.33	8.33	8.54	8.43

Source: Bank of Tanzania (Table A4: Interest Rates Structure, BOT MER June 2026).

TICGL take: Savers locking in 12-month deposits are now earning materially more (10.17%) than those on shorter 1- or 2-month placements (8.34% / 8.65%) — the widest 12-month vs. 1-month premium since early 2025. For treasury and cash-management decisions, this favours term deposits over rolling short-tenor placements at the margin.

3. Interest Rate Spread Analysis

The short-term interest rate spread — defined by the Bank of Tanzania as the short-term (up to 1 year) lending rate less the 12-month deposit rate — narrowed to 5.22 percentage points in May 2026, from 5.50 points in April and 5.85 points in March. This is the narrowest spread recorded in the current data series, and reflects both softer short-term lending pricing and a simultaneously higher 12-month deposit rate.

Chart 3: Overall Lending vs. Overall Deposit Rate, and Spread (Percentage Points) — March 2025 to May 2026

Source: Bank of Tanzania (Table A4); spread computed by TICGL as Overall Lending Rate minus Overall Time Deposit Rate.

Table 3: Short-Term Interest Rate Spread (%), Dec 2025 – May 2026
Indicator	Dec-25	Jan-26	Feb-26	Mar-26	Apr-26	May-26
Short-term lending rate (up to 1 year)	15.46	15.49	15.41	15.45	15.31	15.38
12-month deposit rate	9.58	9.70	9.82	9.60	9.81	10.17
Short-term interest spread	5.88	5.79	5.59	5.85	5.50	5.22

Source: Bank of Tanzania (Table 2.3.1, BOT MER June 2026).

TICGL take: A narrowing spread is a favourable signal for financial intermediation efficiency — it means the "wedge" banks charge between what they pay savers and what they charge borrowers is shrinking, benefiting both sides of the balance sheet. If sustained, this trend should support both credit access for businesses (23.2% private sector credit growth was recorded in May 2026) and better returns for term depositors.

4. Negotiated Rates: Prime Client Pricing

Negotiated rates — the pricing banks offer their strongest, highest-volume clients — moved in opposite directions from posted rates in May 2026. The negotiated lending rate fell sharply to 11.90 percent from 12.56 percent in April, its lowest level in the 15-month series, while the negotiated deposit rate eased to 11.25 percent from 11.37 percent. The gap between the overall (posted) lending rate and the negotiated lending rate has widened to 3.42 percentage points, the widest gap recorded since March 2025 — evidence of intensifying competition among banks for prime corporate borrowers even as list pricing for the broader market stays essentially flat.

Chart 4: Negotiated Lending Rate vs. Negotiated Deposit Rate (%) — March 2025 to May 2026

Source: Bank of Tanzania (Table A4: Interest Rates Structure).

Table 4: Overall vs. Negotiated Lending & Deposit Rates (%), Selected Months
Indicator	May-25	Sep-25	Jan-26	Mar-26	Apr-26	May-26
Overall lending rate	15.18	15.18	15.10	15.11	15.33	15.32
Negotiated lending rate	12.99	12.84	12.25	12.21	12.56	11.90
Overall time deposit rate	8.58	8.50	8.33	8.33	8.54	8.43
Negotiated deposit rate	10.64	11.05	11.74	11.57	11.37	11.25

Source: Bank of Tanzania (Table A4: Interest Rates Structure, BOT MER June 2026).

TICGL take: Note the crossover: since around late 2025, the negotiated deposit rate (11.25% in May) has moved above the negotiated lending rate (11.90% is only marginally above it) — large depositors with negotiating power are earning nearly as much as prime borrowers are paying. This compression matters for corporate treasury strategy: businesses with strong banking relationships should actively negotiate rather than accept posted/list pricing on both sides of the balance sheet.

5. Foreign Currency Lending & Deposit Rates

Foreign currency (largely USD-denominated) lending and deposit rates remain structurally lower than their TZS counterparts, reflecting the absence of currency depreciation risk premium for lenders and the global USD rate environment. The overall foreign currency lending rate stood at 8.72 percent in May 2026, while the foreign currency overall time deposit rate was 4.47 percent — both up modestly from April.

Chart 5: TZS vs. Foreign Currency Overall Lending Rate (%) — March 2025 to May 2026

Source: Bank of Tanzania (Table A4: Interest Rates Structure, Section B: Foreign Currency).

Table 5: Foreign Currency Interest Rates (%), Selected Months
Indicator	May-25	Sep-25	Jan-26	Mar-26	Apr-26	May-26
FX savings deposit rate	1.33	0.98	0.77	1.22	1.68	1.06
FX overall time deposit rate	3.65	3.94	4.18	4.26	4.41	4.47
FX 12-month deposit rate	4.10	4.61	3.82	4.35	4.83	5.59
FX overall lending rate	8.81	8.43	8.57	8.70	8.96	8.72

Source: Bank of Tanzania (Table A4: Interest Rates Structure, Section B).

TICGL take: The TZS–USD lending rate differential remains wide (15.32% vs. 8.72%, a gap of roughly 6.6 percentage points), which continues to make foreign-currency borrowing attractive for importers and dollar-revenue businesses — provided they can manage the associated exchange rate risk, especially with the shilling's recent mild depreciation trend on a month-on-month basis.

6. May 2026 Rate Ladder Snapshot

The chart below consolidates the full lending and deposit rate ladder as it stood at the end of May 2026, giving a single-glance view of where funding and credit costs sit across the maturity spectrum.

Chart 6: Tanzania Lending & Deposit Rate Ladder — Snapshot, May 2026

Source: Bank of Tanzania (Table A4, BOT MER June 2026).

Policy backdrop: This rate structure sits against a Central Bank Rate held at 5.75% and a 7-day interbank cash market rate averaging 5.92% in May 2026 — meaning banks' overall lending rate carries a spread of roughly 9.6 percentage points over the policy rate, while the overall deposit rate sits only about 2.7 points above it. For a fuller picture of the monetary policy and money-market backdrop shaping these numbers, see TICGL's companion analysis on Tanzania's Government securities and interbank cash markets.

Muhtasari kwa Kiswahili

Ripoti ya Kila Mwezi ya Kiuchumi ya Benki Kuu ya Tanzania (BOT) ya Juni 2026 inaonesha kuwa riba za mikopo na amana za benki nchini Tanzania ziliendelea kuwa tulivu mwezi Mei 2026, huku kukiwa na upungufu mdogo katika pande zote mbili.

Riba ya mikopo kwa ujumla: Ilibaki karibu bila mabadiliko kwa asilimia 15.32, kutoka asilimia 15.33 mwezi Aprili.
Riba ya mikopo iliyojadiliwa (negotiated) kwa wateja wakubwa: Ilishuka kwa kiasi kikubwa hadi asilimia 11.90 kutoka asilimia 12.56, ikionesha ushindani mkubwa baina ya benki kuvutia wateja wazuri.
Riba ya amana kwa ujumla: Ilishuka hadi asilimia 8.43 kutoka asilimia 8.54, ingawa riba ya amana za miezi 12 iliongezeka hadi asilimia 10.17 — kiwango cha juu zaidi katika miezi 15 iliyopita.
Pengo la riba (interest rate spread): Pengo baina ya riba ya mikopo ya muda mfupi na riba ya amana za miezi 12 lilipungua hadi pointi 5.22, kutoka pointi 5.50 mwezi Aprili — hii ni ishara nzuri ya kuboreka kwa ufanisi wa upatanishi wa kifedha (intermediation) katika sekta ya benki.
Riba za fedha za kigeni: Riba ya mikopo kwa dola ilikuwa asilimia 8.72, ikiendelea kuwa chini sana ukilinganisha na riba ya mikopo kwa Shilingi (asilimia 15.32).

Kwa uchambuzi wa kina zaidi kuhusu soko la fedha la Tanzania (Government Securities Market na Interbank Cash Market), soma makala shirikishi ya TICGL: Tanzania Financial Markets Review — June 2026. Na kwa mapengo ya kisera yanayozuia uchumi wa Tanzania kufikia thamani ya Dola trilioni 1 ifikapo 2050, soma: What's Next for Tanzania's Economy?

Primary source: Bank of Tanzania, Monthly Economic Review, June 2026 (covering data through May 2026), Table A4: Interest Rates Structure and Table 2.3.1: Lending and Deposit Interest Rates. Compiled, analysed and contextualised by the TICGL Research Desk (Tanzania Investment and Consultant Group Ltd / Tanzania Economic Research Institute). The interest rate spread series in Chart 3 is computed by TICGL (Overall Lending Rate minus Overall Time Deposit Rate) using official BOT source data; Table 3's "short-term interest spread" reproduces BOT's own published definition and figures. This page is for general information purposes and does not constitute investment or financial advice.

1. What Is M3, and Why Should Anyone Outside a Bank Care?

A 60-second primer before the data

Extended broad money supply (M3) is the broadest official measure of "money" circulating in Tanzania's economy. It is built up in layers:

M1 — Narrow money

Cash in people's hands plus money sitting in current/cheque accounts — the most liquid, immediately spendable money. TZS 31.2 trillion in April 2026.

M2 — Broad money

M1 plus savings and time deposits in Shillings — money that's still yours, just slightly less instantly spendable. TZS 50.1 trillion.

M3 — Extended broad money

M2 plus foreign currency deposits held in Tanzanian banks. The full picture of money in the system. TZS 65.1 trillion.

Economists watch M3 growth because, over time, money supply, prices, output and the speed at which money changes hands are mathematically linked:

M × V = P × Y

Money Supply × Velocity = Price Level × Real Output

In plain terms: if the amount of money in an economy grows much faster than the amount of goods and services actually being produced (real GDP), and the speed at which money changes hands doesn't fall enough to offset it, the extra money has to show up somewhere — usually in higher prices (inflation) or a weaker currency. This is precisely the tension Tanzania's numbers now show.

2. The Numbers: How Fast Is Money Supply Actually Growing?

M3 has grown every single month for over a year

TZS 53.3tn

M3 stock, April 2025

TZS 65.1tn

M3 stock, April 2026

+22.0% ▼ from 23.2%

M3 growth y/y, April 2026

+24.7%

Full-year 2025 M3 growth

Chart 1 — M3 Money Supply Stock & Growth Trend (April 2025 – April 2026)

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Source: Bank of Tanzania and banks, BOT Monthly Economic Review, May 2026, Table A3.

M3 has risen in every one of the last 13 months without a single monthly decline — from TZS 53.3 trillion in April 2025 to TZS 65.1 trillion in April 2026, an increase of nearly TZS 12 trillion in a single year. Growth has moderated slightly from its 2025 peak (23.2% in March 2026) to 22.0% in April, but it remains far above Tanzania's long-run average.

Chart 2 — Long-Term M3 Growth vs. Real GDP Growth (2018 – 2025)

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Source: Bank of Tanzania, Ministry of Finance and Planning, BOT Monthly Economic Review, May 2026, Table A1.

This chart is the single most important one in this article. From 2018 to 2024, M3 growth and GDP growth moved in a broadly reasonable relationship to each other — money supply grew faster than output, as is normal in a financially deepening economy, but not dramatically so. In 2025, that relationship broke: M3 growth more than doubled to 24.7 percent while real GDP growth edged up only modestly to around 6.0 percent.

3. What's Actually Driving the Growth

It's not foreign money flooding in — it's domestic credit creation

This is the most important, and most under-reported, detail in the entire money supply story. M3 growth can come from two very different sources, with very different implications:

Net Foreign Assets (NFA) — money entering the system via foreign currency inflows (exports, remittances, FDI, reserves). NFA actually fell 0.7 percent year-on-year to TZS 14.6 trillion in April 2026.
Net Domestic Assets (NDA) — money created domestically through bank lending to the private sector and government. NDA surged 30.7 percent year-on-year to TZS 50.5 trillion — the overwhelming driver of the entire M3 increase.

In other words: Tanzania's money supply boom is homegrown, generated almost entirely by the banking system extending credit faster than the economy is growing — not by dollars flowing in from abroad. That distinction matters because credit-driven money growth carries a more direct inflation and currency risk than reserve-backed money growth.

Chart 3 — Composition of M3 Growth: NFA vs. NDA

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Source: Bank of Tanzania, Table 2.2.1.

Table 1 — M3 and Its Main Components (TZS billions)
Component	Apr 2025	Apr 2026	Growth y/y
Net foreign assets	14,658.6	14,553.0	-0.7%
Net domestic assets	38,679.1	50,538.9	+30.7%
— of which: claims on private sector	38,755.8	47,919.3	+23.6%
Extended broad money (M3)	53,337.7	65,091.9	+22.0%

4. The Widening Money-vs-GDP Gap

Why a persistent gap of this size is the metric to watch

The gap in one line

In 2025, Tanzania's money supply grew roughly four times faster than its real economy (24.7% vs. ~6.0%). A one-off gap of this size can reflect healthy financial deepening — more people opening bank accounts, more businesses accessing formal credit for the first time. A persistent gap of this size, repeated for a second year running, is different: it means the banking system is creating purchasing power faster than the economy can produce goods and services to absorb it.

Tanzania has genuine grounds for the "financial deepening" explanation — private sector credit to GDP has climbed from just 14.3 percent in 2018 to 21.6 percent in 2025, still low by regional and global standards, meaning there is real room for credit to keep expanding as more of the economy is formally banked. But the rate of that expansion in the last 12–18 months has been unusually fast, and TICGL's view is that both explanations — genuine deepening and an overheating credit cycle — are probably true at the same time, in different parts of the economy.

Chart 4 — Private Sector Credit to GDP Ratio, Tanzania (2018–2025)

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Source: Bank of Tanzania, BOT Monthly Economic Review, May 2026, Table A1.

5. The First Warning Sign: Core Inflation Starts to Accelerate

Core inflation jumped from 2.2% to 3.1% in a single month (April 2026)

Textbook monetary theory does not predict inflation to arrive instantly or mechanically — it typically shows up with a lag, and Tanzania's April 2026 inflation figures should not be read as pure proof of a money-supply-driven price spiral (much of the April jump was explicitly attributed by the Bank of Tanzania to fuel price pass-through from the Middle East conflict). But the direction is consistent with what a persistently high M3-vs-GDP gap would predict: both headline inflation (4.0%, up from 3.2%) and, more tellingly, core inflation (3.1%, up from 2.2%) — which strips out volatile food and energy prices — rose sharply in the same month.

Core inflation is the more important of the two for this story, because it is less exposed to one-off external shocks like oil prices and more reflective of underlying domestic demand pressure — exactly the channel through which excess money supply growth would be expected to show up first.

Chart 5 — M3 Growth vs. Core & Headline Inflation (Apr 2025 – Apr 2026)

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Source: NBS & Bank of Tanzania computations, BOT Monthly Economic Review, May 2026.

TICGL read: One month of rising core inflation alongside high M3 growth is not proof of causation. But it is exactly the pattern that would justify the Monetary Policy Committee watching money supply and credit growth closely over the next two to three quarters, rather than treating April's inflation uptick as a one-off, purely fuel-driven event.

6. Impact on Credit & Financial Deepening: Not All Sectors Are Growing Equally

Trade, mining and transport are absorbing most of the new credit

The domestic credit expansion behind M3 growth is highly uneven across sectors. Private sector credit grew 23.6 percent year-on-year overall, but that average hides very different stories sector by sector:

Chart 6 — Annual Credit Growth by Economic Activity, April 2026

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Source: Banks & Bank of Tanzania, Table 2.2.2.

Trade credit grew fastest at 44.2 percent — much of this is working-capital financing for import-heavy, fast-turnover businesses, which tends to translate quickly into consumer prices if it isn't matched by proportional output growth. Manufacturing credit, by contrast, grew just 4.2 percent — meaning the credit boom is disproportionately financing trade and consumption-adjacent activity rather than the kind of productive capacity expansion (factories, processing plants) that would grow real GDP fast enough to close the money-vs-output gap discussed in Section 4.

7. Impact on the Exchange Rate

So far, the Shilling has absorbed the money growth without visible strain

A textbook concern with rapid domestic money creation is currency depreciation — more Shillings chasing the same pool of foreign currency should, all else equal, weaken the exchange rate. So far, that hasn't happened in a disorderly way: the Shilling actually appreciated 2.7 percent year-on-year against the US Dollar on the official interbank market in April 2026, helped by record gold export receipts and strong tourism inflows offsetting the domestic credit expansion (see TICGL's companion analysis, "Why TZS Still Ranks Among Africa's 'Weakest' Currencies in 2026", linked below).

This is an important nuance: fast M3 growth has not yet translated into currency weakness, precisely because export receipts (gold, tourism) have been strong enough to supply the foreign currency side of the equation even as domestic credit expanded rapidly. That balance is exactly what TICGL flags as the thing to watch — if gold prices or tourism receipts soften while domestic credit growth stays this high, the currency channel is where the pressure would most likely surface next.

8. The Fiscal Link: Government Domestic Borrowing

Overdraft utilisation is rising, a signal worth tracking

Part of domestic credit expansion also reflects government financing needs. Domestic debt reached TZS 39.3 trillion at the end of April 2026, up 2.3 percent from March — an increase the Bank of Tanzania attributed mainly to utilisation of the government's overdraft facility, which rose from 13.3 percent to 15.0 percent of the domestic debt stock in a single month. Government borrowing from the banking system is one of the channels through which net domestic assets — and therefore M3 — expand, alongside private sector lending.

TZS 39.3tn

Domestic debt stock, April 2026

15.0%

Share of domestic debt from overdraft, up from 13.3%

5.06%

Treasury bill weighted average yield, April 2026

5.75%

Central Bank Rate, held since Q1 2026

9. TICGL Risk Assessment

Rating the plausibility and severity of each transmission channel

Table 2 — Where Excess Money Growth Could Show Up Next
Channel	Current status	TICGL risk rating
Core inflation	Rose from 2.2% to 3.1% in one month (April 2026)	Watch closely
Headline inflation	4.0%, still within EAC/SADC target bands	Contained for now
Exchange rate (TZS/USD)	Appreciating 2.7% y/y, supported by gold & tourism	Low, conditional on export receipts holding
Asset / credit bubble risk (trade-sector concentration)	Trade credit growth of 44.2% vs. manufacturing at 4.2%	Watch closely
Government crowding-out via overdraft use	Overdraft share of domestic debt up from 13.3% to 15.0% in a month	Watch closely
Banking sector liquidity stress	Reverse repo demand fell to TZS 379.7bn from TZS 585.7bn (improving)	Low

10. TICGL Analytical Take

The money-vs-GDP gap is the single number to track. A widening gap between M3 growth (22-25%) and real GDP growth (~6%) sustained into 2027 would be a far more reliable early warning of future inflation than any single month's headline CPI print.
Financial deepening and overheating can — and probably do — coexist. Tanzania's private credit-to-GDP ratio (21.6%) is still low by international standards, meaning structural credit expansion is healthy and needed. But the pace of the last 18 months looks faster than the pace of genuine new-customer financial inclusion alone would explain.
Export receipts are currently masking the pressure. Gold and tourism inflows have let Tanzania run rapid domestic credit growth without currency strain so far. This is a favourable but not guaranteed condition — it depends on global gold prices and travel demand remaining strong.
Sectoral credit allocation matters as much as the aggregate number. Credit flowing disproportionately into trade rather than manufacturing or agro-processing raises the odds that new money shows up in consumer prices rather than in expanded productive capacity — a theme consistent with TICGL's broader research on Tanzania's industrialisation gap under FYDP IV.

11. Frequently Asked Questions

What is Tanzania's M3 money supply and how big is it?

M3 (extended broad money supply) is the broadest measure of money circulating in Tanzania's economy — currency plus all bank deposits, including foreign currency deposits. It reached TZS 65.1 trillion in April 2026, up 22.0 percent from a year earlier.

Why is Tanzania's M3 growing faster than GDP?

M3 grew 24.7 percent in 2025 versus real GDP growth of about 6.0 percent — a gap driven almost entirely by rapid domestic credit expansion (net domestic assets up 30.7 percent y/y) rather than foreign currency inflows (net foreign assets fell 0.7 percent).

Does fast M3 growth cause inflation in Tanzania?

It's a contributing risk factor rather than an automatic cause. Headline inflation rose to 4.0 percent in April 2026 (from 3.2 percent) and core inflation rose to 3.1 percent (from 2.2 percent) — both still within target bands, but the direction is consistent with what a persistent money-vs-GDP gap would predict.

What is driving Tanzania's rapid credit and money supply growth?

Private sector credit grew 23.6 percent year-on-year, led by trade (44.2%), mining and quarrying (39.7%), and transport and communication (39.7%). Private credit to GDP has risen from 14.3 percent in 2018 to 21.6 percent in 2025.

TERI

Tanzania Economic Research Institute (TERI) — a TICGL research initiative

Analysis prepared using data from the Bank of Tanzania Monthly Economic Review, May 2026, and Ministry of Finance and Planning.

Primary data source: Bank of Tanzania, Monthly Economic Review — May 2026 (ISSN 0856-6844), Tables 2.2.1, 2.2.2, A1 and A3. Figures are provisional (p) where noted in original BOT tables and subject to revision in subsequent BOT publications.

1. The Ranking: Africa's Weakest Currencies, June 2026

Where TZS sits, and who ranks weaker

Multiple currency trackers publishing "weakest African currencies" surveys in June 2026 — compiled using Forbes calculator data by Business Insider Africa and Tuko.co.ke — place the Tanzanian Shilling 7th weakest on the continent, requiring roughly 2,600–2,635 units per US Dollar. Six African currencies now require more than 2,000 units per dollar, led by São Tomé & Príncipe's dobra and Sierra Leone's leone.

Table 1 — Africa's 10 "Weakest" Currencies by Units per US Dollar, June 2026
Rank	Country	Currency	Units per USD
1	São Tomé & Príncipe	Dobra (STD)	≈ 22,282
2	Sierra Leone	Leone (SLL)	≈ 20,970
3	Guinea	Guinean Franc (GNF)	≈ 8,764
4	Madagascar	Malagasy Ariary (MGA)	≈ 4,176
5	Uganda	Ugandan Shilling (UGX)	≈ 3,651
6	Burundi	Burundian Franc (BIF)	≈ 2,983
7	Tanzania	Tanzanian Shilling (TZS)	≈ 2,600 – 2,635
8	D.R. Congo	Congolese Franc (CDF)	≈ 2,308
9	Malawi	Malawian Kwacha (MWK)	≈ 1,734
10	Rwanda	Rwandan Franc (RWF)	≈ 1,465

Sources: Forbes currency calculator data compiled by Business Insider Africa and Tuko.co.ke (June 2026); Trading Economics; Wise.com; Exchange-Rates.org. Nominal per-USD figures vary slightly by source and by day; TICGL uses a representative mid-June 2026 range.

Chart 1 — Africa's Weakest Currencies vs. TZS: Units per US Dollar, June 2026

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Note: São Tomé, Sierra Leone and Guinea are truncated on this chart for readability (values in the tens of thousands). See Table 1 for full figures.

Why this ranking gets attention: Headlines built on this list travel fast because "weakest currency" sounds alarming. But nominal exchange-rate level is a poor proxy for currency health — Japan's yen trades above 140/USD and South Korea's won above 1,300/USD, and neither is considered "weak" in the crisis sense. What actually matters is covered in Sections 2–6 below.

2. What Bank of Tanzania's Official Data Actually Shows

The IFEM rate: stable, and appreciating year-on-year

On the Interbank Foreign Exchange Market (IFEM) that the Bank of Tanzania tracks and publishes monthly, the Shilling averaged TZS 2,612.46 per US Dollar in April 2026, compared with TZS 2,684.41 per USD in April 2025 — an annual appreciation of 2.7 percent. That is an improvement on the 2.5 percent appreciation recorded in March 2026, and a sharp turnaround from the 3.9 percent depreciation recorded in the same month a year earlier (April 2025). This is the opposite direction of travel implied by a "weakest currencies" headline.

Chart 2 — Official TZS/USD Exchange Rate, End of Period (Apr 2025 – Apr 2026)

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Source: Bank of Tanzania / Ministry of Finance, BOT Monthly Economic Review, May 2026, Table A10 (national debt end-of-period exchange rate).

Behind this stability: gold export receipts rose to USD 5,268.9 million (year ending April 2026) from USD 3,821.2 million a year earlier — a 38 percent jump that materially eased dollar demand pressure — while tourism receipts grew 9.5 percent to USD 4,385.3 million on a 21.7 percent rise in international arrivals. The Bank's own intervention was light: it sold just USD 15.3 million on the IFEM in April 2026 "to maintain orderly market conditions" — not the scale of intervention associated with a currency under real stress.

3. Reconciling Two Different Stories

Why official and market-tracker numbers diverge

Cross-checking independent trackers as at late June 2026: Trading Economics quoted USD/TZS around 2,625 on 3 June 2026 (Shilling down 1.16% over the prior month, but still up 1.87% over the trailing 12 months — consistent with BOT's appreciation story); Wise.com recorded a June 2026 weekly range of TZS 2,596–2,634 per USD with a six-month average of TZS 2,571; and Exchange-Rates.org noted the Shilling had eased about 6.1 percent year-to-date against the Dollar by 20 June 2026 on the specific rate series it tracks.

The gap between these figures is real and worth understanding rather than dismissing. Tanzania runs a managed, not fully liberalised, exchange rate. That means:

BOT's figure is a monthly average of the interbank rate, smoothing out day-to-day spikes that trackers like Wise or Trading Economics quote in real time.
Different reference dates. BOT's most recent published figure is for April 2026; independent trackers quote rates through late June 2026 — two months of additional currency movement not yet captured in BOT's own release cycle.
Retail/parallel spread. Rates used by international remittance and travel platforms often reflect a small retail markup over the pure interbank mid-rate BOT publishes.

Table 2 — TZS/USD: Comparing Sources, 2026
Source	Period	Rate (TZS/USD)
Bank of Tanzania (IFEM avg.)	April 2026	2,612.46
Bank of Tanzania (end of period)	April 2026	2,602.00
Trading Economics	3 Jun 2026	2,625.00
Wise.com (weekly high)	23 Jun 2026	2,634.05
Wise.com (weekly low)	25 Jun 2026	2,596.00
Wise.com (6-month avg.)	Jan–Jun 2026	2,571.25
Exchange-Rates.org	20 Jun 2026	2,630.99
Forbes Advisor / Xe	25 Jun 2026	2,617.80

TICGL read: None of these figures point to a currency in freefall. The spread across sources (roughly TZS 2,570–2,635) is a normal band for a managed float, not evidence of a parallel-market crisis of the kind seen in some of the currencies ranked weaker than TZS on Table 1.

4. Five Reasons TZS Ranks "Weak" in Nominal Terms

None of these, on their own, signal instability

No currency redenomination

Unlike Ghana (2007) or Zimbabwe, Tanzania has never redenominated the Shilling by dropping zeros. Decades of cumulative — even if moderate — inflation since the 1970s compound into a nominally large units-per-dollar figure today, independent of current-year stability.

Larger economy, larger money stock

Extended broad money (M3) reached TZS 65.1 trillion in April 2026, up 22 percent year-on-year. A bigger, faster-growing economy naturally circulates more local-currency units, which mechanically raises the units-per-dollar figure over time even without depreciation.

Nominal ranking ignores the growth rate

"Weakest currency" lists rank the level of the exchange rate, not its trend. Uganda, Burundi and several currencies ranked "less weak" than TZS by level have depreciated far faster in percentage terms over the past year than the Shilling has.

Import-dependent economy

Refined petroleum products make up about 14.4 percent of goods imports. As a net commodity importer, Tanzania's dollar demand is structurally higher than gold- and tourism-export receipts alone would otherwise imply — a genuine, if moderate, source of currency pressure.

Regional company, not global outlier

TZS sits in a cluster of East/Central African currencies (Uganda, Burundi, DR Congo, Rwanda, Malawi) that all require 1,000+ units per dollar for similar structural reasons. This is a regional pattern, not a Tanzania-specific weakness signal.

✓

What would actually be alarming

A widening gap between the official and black-market rate, rapidly falling reserves, or double-digit annual depreciation — none of which currently apply to TZS based on the data in this review.

5. TZS vs. Regional Peer Currencies

A closer look at East & Central African currencies

Chart 3 — TZS vs. Selected East & Central African Currencies: Units per USD, June 2026

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Source: Business Insider Africa / Tuko.co.ke (Forbes calculator), June 2026.

Within its immediate regional cluster, TZS sits between Rwanda/Malawi/DR Congo (nominally "stronger" by level) and Uganda/Burundi/Madagascar (nominally "weaker"). What distinguishes Tanzania is the combination of a diversified export base (gold, tourism, agriculture, manufactured goods) and a managed float backed by adequate reserves — a combination several of its lower-ranked regional peers lack.

6. The Real Risk to Watch: The Current Account & Global Oil Prices

Not the ranking — the trajectory

Tanzania's current account deficit widened to USD 2,651.8 million in the year ending April 2026, from USD 2,107.1 million a year earlier — a 25.6 percent deterioration — as import growth (15.5%) outpaced export growth (13.5%). This is financed comfortably today by gold and tourism inflows, but it is the genuine leading indicator for currency pressure, not the nominal exchange-rate ranking.

The transmission channel is direct: global crude oil prices jumped from USD 95.58/barrel in March 2026 to a monthly average of USD 103.91/barrel in April 2026 (intraday high USD 117.80), driven by Middle East tensions. Since refined petroleum makes up roughly 14.4 percent of Tanzania's goods imports, a sustained oil-price shock raises dollar demand mechanically — the more credible path to future TZS depreciation than the current nominal ranking implies.

The offsetting cushion

Gross official reserves stood at USD 5,722.5 million in April 2026 (up from USD 5,307.7 million a year earlier), covering 4.4 months of projected imports — within national and EAC benchmarks. Combined with record gold exports, this gives Bank of Tanzania meaningful room to defend orderly market conditions even if oil prices stay elevated through the rest of 2026.

Chart 4 — Current Account Balance & Foreign Exchange Reserves (Year Ending April, 2021–2026)

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Source: Bank of Tanzania, Tables A5 & A10, BOT Monthly Economic Review, May 2026.

7. Supporting Context: Inflation, Policy Rate & Credit Growth

The macro backdrop shaping currency conditions

Currency stability doesn't happen in isolation — it reflects the wider monetary and price environment. Three data points from the May 2026 BOT review matter most for the TZS story:

4.0% ▲

Headline inflation, April 2026 (from 3.2% in March)

5.75%

Central Bank Rate, held since Q1 2026

23.6%

Private sector credit growth, y/y

22.0%

Broad money (M3) growth, y/y

Chart 5 — Twelve-Month Inflation Trend: Headline, Core, Food & Energy (Apr 2025 – Apr 2026)

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Source: National Bureau of Statistics & Bank of Tanzania computations, BOT Monthly Economic Review, May 2026.

Why this matters for the Shilling

At its April 2026 meeting, the Monetary Policy Committee held the CBR at 5.75 percent and narrowed the policy corridor from 200 to 150 basis points to sharpen transmission — a stance consistent with defending currency stability without over-tightening credit. Inflation at 4.0 percent remains inside EAC/SADC convergence bands, meaning Tanzania is not fighting the kind of runaway domestic inflation that typically forces rapid currency depreciation elsewhere on the "weakest currencies" list (e.g., Sierra Leone, Guinea). Meanwhile, credit growth of 23.6 percent — led by trade (44.2%), mining (39.7%) and transport (39.7%) — signals an economy still expanding fast enough to keep attracting the dollar inflows that support the currency.

Chart 6 — 7-Day IBCM Rate vs. the CBR Corridor (May 2024 – April 2026)

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Source: Bank of Tanzania, BOT Monthly Economic Review, May 2026, Chart 2.2.1.

8. Budget, Debt & External Reserves Snapshot

The fiscal and external-debt picture underpinning currency confidence

Central government revenue continues to outperform target — TZS 3,836.8 billion collected in March 2026, 8.5 percent above target — while the national debt stock reached USD 51,067.2 million at end-April 2026, of which 70.4 percent was external debt, still dominated by concessional multilateral creditors (58.3 percent of the external stock). A well-managed debt profile and a revenue base that consistently beats target both support investor and creditor confidence in the currency's medium-term stability.

Chart 7 — External Debt Stock by Creditor Category, April 2026

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Source: Ministry of Finance & Bank of Tanzania, Table 2.6.2.

Chart 8 — Foreign Exchange Reserves vs. Months of Import Cover

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Source: Bank of Tanzania, Chart 2.7.1.

Table 3 — Key External Sector Indicators, Year Ending April 2026
Indicator	2025	2026 (provisional)	Change
Total exports (goods & services)	USD 16,625.0m	USD 18,876.7m	+13.5%
Total imports (goods & services)	USD 17,270.5m	USD 19,944.6m	+15.5%
Current account balance	-USD 2,107.1m	-USD 2,651.8m	Widened 25.6%
Gross official reserves	USD 5,307.7m	USD 5,722.5m	+7.8%
Gold exports	USD 3,821.2m	USD 5,268.9m	+37.9%
External debt stock	USD 33,764.5m	USD 35,949.6m	+6.5%

9. TICGL Analytical Take

Reading the "weakest currency" narrative correctly

Separate the level from the trend. Investors, importers and policymakers should track the direction of the IFEM rate and reserve cover month to month — not headline rankings built purely on nominal exchange-rate level, which say little about near-term risk.
Watch the current account, not the currency table. A 25.6 percent widening of the current account deficit in a single year is the metric most likely to translate into real TZS pressure if it persists — particularly if global oil prices stay elevated on Middle East tensions.
Gold and tourism are doing the heavy lifting. Both sectors are cyclical and exposed to global demand and price swings. A structurally sound export base still needs diversification beyond these two pillars to keep underwriting currency stability through future shocks — a theme consistent with TICGL's broader research on Tanzania's industrialisation gap.
Reserve adequacy remains the key buffer. At 4.4 months of import cover, Tanzania has room to absorb short-term shocks without disorderly currency moves, but this buffer would erode if the current account deficit trend continues unaddressed.

10. Frequently Asked Questions

Why does the Tanzanian Shilling rank among Africa's weakest currencies?

As of June 2026, TZS trades at roughly TZS 2,600–2,635 per US Dollar, ranking 7th weakest in Africa on a nominal units-per-dollar basis, behind São Tomé, Sierra Leone, Guinea, Madagascar, Uganda and Burundi. This reflects currency history (no redenomination) and the size of Tanzania's money stock — not an indicator of acute currency crisis.

Is the Tanzanian Shilling actually losing value?

Not on Bank of Tanzania's own official interbank (IFEM) data: TZS averaged 2,612.46 per USD in April 2026, up 2.7 percent year-on-year. Independent trackers quote day-specific rates in the 2,600–2,635 range through June 2026 and describe modest year-to-date softening — a gap explained by averaging methods, reference dates and retail spreads, not a currency collapse.

What is the difference between a "weak" currency and a "depreciating" currency?

A currency's nominal exchange rate level reflects history and structure; a depreciating currency is one losing value over time. TZS requires many units per dollar (nominal characteristic) but has been broadly stable to appreciating year-on-year on official data — unlike several African currencies experiencing double-digit annual depreciation.

What could cause the Tanzanian Shilling to weaken further?

The most plausible risk is Tanzania's widening current account deficit (USD 2,651.8 million, year ending April 2026), driven by import growth outpacing exports. A sustained rise in global oil prices linked to Middle East tensions would raise the fuel import bill and could pressure the Shilling, even as gold and tourism receipts currently offset this.

How does Tanzania defend the Shilling's exchange rate?

Through light IFEM interventions (USD 15.3 million sold in April 2026) backed by gross official reserves of USD 5,722.5 million, covering about 4.4 months of projected imports — in line with national and EAC benchmarks.

TERI

Tanzania Economic Research Institute (TERI) — a TICGL research initiative

Analysis prepared using data from the Bank of Tanzania Monthly Economic Review, May 2026; Ministry of Finance and Planning; National Bureau of Statistics; Tanzania Revenue Authority; and independent currency-market trackers (Trading Economics, Wise.com, Exchange-Rates.org, Forbes Advisor, Business Insider Africa / Tuko.co.ke).

Primary data source: Bank of Tanzania, Monthly Economic Review — May 2026 (ISSN 0856-6844). Supplementary sources: Business Insider Africa / Tuko.co.ke, "Top 10 African Countries With Weakest Currencies as of June 2026"; Trading Economics, Tanzania Shilling currency data; Wise.com and Exchange-Rates.org historical USD/TZS rates; Forbes Advisor currency converter. Figures are provisional (p) where noted in original BOT tables and subject to revision in subsequent BOT publications.

Context

Financial Markets Overview – March 2026

Tanzania's financial markets in March 2026 reflected a well-anchored monetary framework amid an increasingly complex global environment driven by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The Bank of Tanzania maintained a calibrated stance, balancing inflation containment with growth support.

Key Finding: Government securities auctions were consistently oversubscribed in March 2026, with Treasury bill subscriptions reaching TZS 812.9 billion against a tender size of TZS 452.1 billion — reflecting robust investor confidence backed by a stable macroeconomic outlook and declining yields.

T-Bill Tender Size

TZS 452B

Two auctions in March 2026

T-Bill Subscriptions

TZS 813B

↑ 1.80× oversubscription ratio

Successful Bids

TZS 422B

93.4% of tender absorbed

Bond Tender Size

TZS 355B

2-year & 20-year combined

Bond Subscriptions

TZS 1,804B

↑ 5.08× oversubscription ratio

Bonds Accepted

TZS 344B

96.8% of tender absorbed

Monetary Policy Context: The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) at its April 2026 meeting maintained the Central Bank Rate (CBR) at 5.75 percent for Q2 2026, reflecting a cautious stance to balance inflation risks amid Middle East geopolitical uncertainty. Crucially, the MPC narrowed the CBR corridor from ±200 basis points to ±150 basis points, effective 1 April 2026, to strengthen monetary policy transmission.

Government Securities Market

Government Securities – Performance & Trends

The government securities market recorded robust performance in March 2026, underpinned by sustained investor demand and a stable macroeconomic environment. Declining yields across all tenors reflect improving debt management and tighter monetary policy transmission.

📋 Treasury Bills Market

Treasury Bill Weighted Average Yields

March 2025 – March 2026 (Monthly)

Declining

T-Bill Auction: Offer vs. Subscriptions vs. Accepted

Jan 2025 – Mar 2026 (TZS Billion)

Oversubscribed

Treasury Bill Rates by Tenor – March 2025 to March 2026

Yields across all tenors have declined materially since mid-2025, reflecting a combination of improving liquidity conditions, reduced government borrowing pressure, and investor demand for lower-risk instruments amid global uncertainty.

Tenor	Mar-25	Apr-25	Jul-25	Sep-25	Nov-25	Jan-26	Feb-26	Mar-26	Change (Mar25→Mar26)
35 Days	6.50%	6.50%	6.50%	6.20%	5.64%	5.36%	4.75%	4.20%	▼ 2.30 pp
91 Days	7.42%	7.50%	7.46%	6.81%	6.08%	5.73%	4.97%	4.23%	▼ 3.19 pp
182 Days	8.20%	8.47%	8.24%	6.56%	5.92%	5.85%	5.85%	5.69%	▼ 2.51 pp
364 Days	10.11%	8.92%	8.13%	5.99%	6.45%	6.21%	6.20%	5.80%	▼ 4.31 pp
Overall WAY	10.10%	8.86%	8.13%	6.03%	6.25%	5.89%	5.68%	5.21%	▼ 4.89 pp

Source: Bank of Tanzania, Table A4 – Interest Rates Structure. WAY = Weighted Average Yield. pp = percentage points.

TICGL Insight: The dramatic fall in Treasury bill yields — the 364-day rate dropped from 10.11% in March 2025 to 5.80% in March 2026 — signals a fundamental repricing of short-term sovereign risk. For businesses and investors, this compresses the risk-free benchmark, potentially stimulating private sector credit uptake as government instruments become less attractive relative to corporate lending.

📈 Treasury Bonds Market

Treasury Bond Yields by Tenor

March 2025 – March 2026 (%)

Multi-tenor

Government Securities Issued for Financing

Mar 2025 – Mar 2026 (TZS Billion)

Financing

Treasury Bond Yields Across Tenors – Monthly Trend

Tanzania's Treasury bond market saw a broad-based yield compression across all tenors in 2025–2026. The 2-year bond yield fell sharply from 12.55% in March 2025 to 8.36% in March 2026, while the 20-year bond declined from 15.28% to 10.71% over the same period.

Bond Tenor	Mar-25	Jun-25	Aug-25	Oct-25	Dec-25	Feb-26	Mar-26	YoY Change
2-Year	12.55%	12.08%	12.17%	10.05%	10.05%	10.05%	8.36%	▼ 4.19 pp
5-Year	13.14%	12.94%	13.18%	12.48%	10.54%	10.54%	10.54%	▼ 2.60 pp
7-Year	9.71%	9.71%	9.71%	9.71%	9.71%	9.71%	9.71%	— 0.00 pp
10-Year	14.08%	14.26%	13.74%	12.45%	12.45%	11.30%	11.30%	▼ 2.78 pp
15-Year	14.63%	14.63%	13.91%	13.91%	12.08%	10.78%	10.78%	▼ 3.85 pp
20-Year	15.28%	14.50%	14.50%	13.55%	12.02%	12.02%	10.71%	▼ 4.57 pp
25-Year	15.84%	14.80%	14.42%	13.19%	13.19%	11.99%	11.99%	▼ 3.85 pp

Source: Bank of Tanzania, Table A4. pp = percentage points. All yields in % per annum.

March 2026 Bond Auction Highlights

Combined tender for 2-year and 20-year bonds: TZS 355.4 billion
Total bids received: TZS 1,803.9 billion — a 5.1× oversubscription, signalling deep investor appetite
Bonds accepted: TZS 344.1 billion
2-year bond WAY: 8.36% (down from 10.05% in previous auction)
20-year bond WAY: 10.71% (down from 12.02%)

📉 Yield Compression

✅ Oversubscribed 5×

⚠️ Global Risk Watch

Interbank Cash Market

Interbank Cash Market (IBCM) – March 2026

The interbank cash market operated smoothly in March 2026, continuing its role as the primary mechanism for liquidity redistribution across commercial banks. Rates remained tightly anchored to the Central Bank Rate, reflecting effective monetary policy transmission.

Overall IBCM Rate

6.32%

↓ from 6.34% Feb-26

7-Day Tenor Share

60.7%

Dominant transaction tenor

Market Turnover

TZS 2,700B

↓ from TZS 2,797B (Feb-26)

CBR Rate

5.75%

IBCM spread: +0.57 pp above CBR

Reverse Repo Uptake

TZS 431B

↓ from TZS 581B (Feb-26)

Liquidity Status

Adequate

Within CBR corridor

7-Day IBCM Rate vs. CBR Corridor

Aug 2024 – Mar 2026 (%)

Policy Anchored

IBCM Rates by Tenor – Mar 2025 to Mar 2026

Overnight, 2–7 Days, Overall Rate (%)

All Tenors

Interbank Cash Market Rates by Tenor – Trend Table

The IBCM rate structure shows a clear downward trend from March 2025 through March 2026, consistent with the Bank of Tanzania's accommodative stance and improved liquidity conditions. Overnight rates declined from 7.91% to 6.17% over this period.

Tenor	Mar-25	May-25	Jul-25	Sep-25	Nov-25	Jan-26	Feb-26	Mar-26
Overnight	7.91%	7.95%	6.62%	6.29%	6.08%	6.13%	6.01%	6.17%
2 to 7 Days	8.02%	7.96%	7.43%	6.43%	6.19%	6.34%	6.31%	6.25%
8 to 14 Days	8.21%	8.28%	7.57%	6.93%	6.84%	6.74%	6.83%	6.53%
15 to 30 Days	8.44%	8.35%	7.12%	7.35%	7.23%	7.06%	6.96%	6.85%
31 to 60 Days	9.83%	8.53%	8.53%	7.50%	7.00%	7.23%	7.00%	7.20%
61 to 90 Days	9.83%	9.14%	9.14%	9.14%	7.00%	9.96%	7.00%	8.50%
Overall IBCM Rate	8.12%	7.98%	7.35%	6.45%	6.30%	6.40%	6.34%	6.32%

Source: Bank of Tanzania, Table A4 – Interest Rates Structure. All rates in % per annum.

Liquidity Signal: The continued decline in reverse repo uptake — from TZS 581.4 billion in February to TZS 430.8 billion in March 2026 — demonstrates that banks required less central bank support, a clear signal of adequate systemic liquidity. This is broadly consistent with the Bank's strategy of steering the 7-day IBCM rate within a ±1.5 percentage point range around the CBR.

Interbank Foreign Exchange Market

Tanzania Shilling & Forex Market – March 2026

Demand pressures in the interbank foreign exchange market eased significantly in March 2026, buoyed by improved foreign currency inflows — particularly from gold exports. The Tanzania shilling appreciated 2.52% year-on-year against the US dollar.

TZS/USD (Mar-26)

2,583

↑ 2.52% YoY appreciation

TZS/USD (Mar-25)

2,650

Year-ago comparison rate

IFEM Transactions

USD 138M

↓ from USD 185M (Feb-26)

BOT Net Sales

USD 65M

↓ 49% from USD 129M (Feb-26)

Gross Forex Reserves

USD 6.08B

↑ from USD 5.69B (Mar-25)

Import Cover

4.7 months

Above EAC & national benchmarks

TZS/USD Exchange Rate Trend

Mar 2025 – Mar 2026 (Weighted Average)

Appreciating

Gross Official Forex Reserves

Mar 2022 – Mar 2026 (USD Million & Months of Import)

Reserves Growing

Gold Export Cushion: The easing of forex market pressure in March 2026 was largely driven by robust gold export inflows. Tanzania's gold exports generate 30–40% of foreign exchange earnings, providing a structural buffer against oil import costs. Gold exports reached USD 5,222.8 million in the year ending March 2026 — a 38.5% year-on-year surge — reinforcing the shilling's stability even as crude oil prices surged due to the Strait of Hormuz crisis.

Bank Interest Rates

Lending & Deposit Rates – March 2026

Commercial bank interest rates in Tanzania remained broadly stable in March 2026, with limited immediate pass-through of monetary policy changes to retail credit conditions. The short-term interest rate spread widened modestly.

Lending Rates – Overall vs. Negotiated

Mar 2025 – Mar 2026 (%)

Lending

Deposit Rates – Time Deposit & Negotiated

Mar 2025 – Mar 2026 (%)

Deposits

Lending and Deposit Rate Summary – March 2026

Rate Indicator	Mar-25	Dec-25	Jan-26	Feb-26	Mar-26	Change YoY
Overall Lending Rate	15.50%	15.24%	15.10%	15.11%	15.11%	▼ 0.39 pp
Short-term Lending (<1yr)	15.83%	15.46%	15.49%	15.41%	15.45%	▼ 0.38 pp
Negotiated Lending Rate	12.94%	12.38%	12.25%	12.19%	12.21%	▼ 0.73 pp
Overall Time Deposit Rate	8.00%	8.36%	8.33%	8.32%	8.33%	▲ 0.33 pp
12-Month Deposit Rate	8.14%	9.58%	9.70%	9.82%	9.60%	▲ 1.46 pp
Negotiated Deposit Rate	10.35%	11.66%	11.74%	11.48%	11.57%	▲ 1.22 pp
Savings Deposit Rate	2.86%	3.02%	2.94%	2.98%	2.89%	▲ 0.03 pp
Short-term Interest Spread	7.69 pp	5.88 pp	5.79 pp	5.59 pp	5.85 pp	▼ 1.84 pp

Source: Bank of Tanzania, Table 2.4.1 & Table A4. pp = percentage points.

TICGL Policy Analysis

What Tanzania's Financial Markets Tell Us in 2026

Reading across all financial market data, TICGL's research team identifies five critical themes for investors, businesses, and policymakers operating in Tanzania in 2026.

1. Declining Yields Signal a Structural Shift in Sovereign Borrowing Costs

The compression of Treasury bill and bond yields across all tenors represents one of the most significant developments in Tanzania's debt capital market in recent years. The 364-day Treasury bill fell from 10.11% to 5.80% year-on-year, a decline of 431 basis points. For the first time since 2020, short-term government borrowing costs are approaching the policy rate, suggesting the government is borrowing more efficiently — a positive sign for fiscal sustainability under FYDP IV.

2. The CBR Corridor Narrowing is a Precision Tool

The MPC's decision to narrow the CBR corridor from ±200 to ±150 basis points signals a more refined monetary policy framework. This tighter corridor reduces the band within which market rates can fluctuate, improving the predictability of borrowing costs for banks and their clients. Investors should expect IBCM rates to cluster more tightly around 5.75%–7.25% going forward, reducing uncertainty in short-term funding markets.

3. Oversubscribed Auctions Reflect Confidence, Not Excess Liquidity

The extraordinary oversubscription of bond auctions — TZS 1,803.9 billion in bids for TZS 355.4 billion on offer (5.1×) — may appear to reflect excess liquidity. However, TICGL's reading is that this reflects genuine investor confidence in Tanzania's macroeconomic stability. Pension funds, insurance companies, and commercial banks are actively extending duration risk by purchasing long-term bonds, consistent with portfolio rebalancing toward higher-yielding assets as short-term rates decline.

4. The Shilling's 2.52% Appreciation: Structural, Not Cyclical

The TZS appreciating from 2,650 to 2,583 per USD represents a structural improvement driven by Tanzania's gold export boom — exports reached USD 5.2 billion in the year to March 2026, a 38.5% surge. This is not a temporary policy effect; it reflects Tanzania's unique natural hedge whereby gold revenues expand during geopolitical crises (when oil prices also spike). The implication for importers and exporters: plan for a stronger shilling environment in 2026.

5. Lending Rate Stickiness: Transmission Lag Remains a Challenge

Despite declining government securities yields and a stable CBR, overall lending rates barely moved — 15.50% in March 2025 to 15.11% in March 2026, a decline of just 39 basis points. This transmission lag is a persistent feature of Tanzania's banking system, reflecting structural factors including high credit risk premiums, collateral requirements, and portfolio concentration in personal loans (35.3% of total credit). Businesses seeking cheaper credit should focus on negotiated rates (12.21%) rather than headline lending rates.

TICGL Forward View: We project that Treasury bill yields will continue declining through Q3 2026, stabilising around 4.5%–5.0% for the 364-day bill. Bond yields across the curve have further room to compress if the government maintains fiscal discipline and the shilling remains stable. However, the Strait of Hormuz disruption introduces upside risk to inflation — if headline inflation breaches 5%, the MPC may be forced to tighten, reversing recent yield gains.

#	Challenge	Domain	Key Evidence / Indicator	Primary Sectors Affected
SP-1	Low Productivity	Across Productive Sectors	Total factor productivity growth has been insufficient; Tanzania lags well behind regional comparators in agriculture, manufacturing, and services	All Sectors
SP-2	Limited Industrialisation	Industrial Structure	Manufacturing at only 7.3% of GDP, growth at 4.8% — Tanzania remains a raw commodity exporter despite three FYDPs targeting industrialisation	Manufacturing, Mining, Agriculture
SP-3	Weak Value Chains	Economic Integration	Agriculture-agro-processing linkages fragmented; mining-manufacturing disconnected; supply chains import-dependent	Agriculture, Manufacturing, Mining, Tourism
SP-4	Infrastructure Constraints	Physical Capital	Electricity: 4,032 MW for 65M people; paved roads: 8.6%; high logistics dwell times; digital gaps	Energy, Transport, All Sectors
SP-5	Environmental Pressures	Sustainability	85% of farmland rain-fed; hydro drought risk; deforestation; desertification; coastal asset vulnerability	Agriculture, Energy, Tourism
SP-6	Informality	Economic Structure	Informal economy: 55% of GDP (2023); target 29% by 2031; informal employment: 94.2% of total workforce	All Sectors — Especially Agriculture, Trade
SP-7	Governance & Implementation Gaps	Institutional	FYDP III budget execution at 67%; fragmented MDA mandates; PPP frameworks exist but not operationalised	All Sectors — Meta-Constraint

Sector / Domain	Indicator	Baseline (2023–25)	FYDP IV Target (2031)	Gap / Change Required
Economic Growth	GDP Real Growth Rate	5.5% (2024 actual)	10.5%	×1.9 acceleration
Agriculture (26.3% GDP)	Post-Harvest Losses	35%	10%	−25pp reduction
Agriculture	Agriculture Credit Share	14.9% (2023)	20%	+5.1pp
Agriculture	Agriculture Real Growth Rate	4.1% (2024)	10%	×2.4 faster
Energy (Cornerstone)	Installed Electricity Capacity	4,032 MW (2025)	15,000 MW	×3.7 expansion
Energy	Rural Household Electrification	36% (2025)	42.8%	+6.8pp
Energy	Renewable Energy Share	<2% of mix	≥40%	×20+ scale-up
Finance	DFI Capital Base (% GDP)	0.4% (2024)	≥1.25%	×3.1 increase
Finance	MSMEs with Active Formal Loans	19% (2023)	≥40%	×2.1 expansion
Finance	Rural Population with Microfinance	19% (2023)	≥80%	×4.2 expansion
Human Capital	Workforce with High Skills	3%	12%	×4 increase
Human Capital	Workforce with Low Skills	84%	55%	−29pp reduction
Investment	FDI Inflows	USD 1,717.6M (2024)	USD 8,366M	×4.9 increase
Trade & Exports	Manufactured Goods Export Share	18.6% (non-traditional)	29.59%	+11pp
Informality	Informal Economy (% of GDP)	55% (2023)	29%	−26pp in 5 years

Ref	Structural Problem	Agriculture	Industry / Mfg	Energy	Finance	Economy-Wide
SP-1	Energy Deficit & Unreliability	Critical	Critical	Critical	High	High
SP-2	Finance Shallowness & Credit Exclusion	Critical	Critical	High	Critical	Critical
SP-3	Skills Mismatch & Human Capital Deficit	Critical	Critical	High	High	High
SP-4	Informality (94.2% Informal Employment)	Critical	Critical	Medium	Critical	Critical
SP-5	Infrastructure Gaps (Transport, Logistics, Digital)	High	Critical	Critical	High	High
SP-6	Institutional Weakness & Regulatory Fragmentation	Critical	Critical	High	High	Critical
SP-7	Commodity Export Dependence & Low Value Addition	High	Critical	Medium	Medium	Critical
SP-8	Import Dependence for Inputs & Capital Goods	High	Critical	High	Critical	High
SP-9	Climate Vulnerability & Environmental Degradation	Critical	Medium	Critical	High	Medium
SP-10	Implementation & Coordination Failure	Critical	Critical	Critical	Critical	Critical

Country	Tax-to-GDP	CIT Rate	Avg. GDP Growth	Private Credit/GDP	Key Enabler	Status
🇹🇿 Tanzania	13.1%	30% Highest EAC	5.3–5.7%	16.4% Critical gap	Limited — regulatory burden high; 266 parastatals competing with private sector	⚠ Needs Reform
🇸🇬 Singapore	13.6%	17% + exemptions	4–5%+	>150% ★ World-class	SEZ incentives, territorial tax, world-class logistics, zero capital gains	✅ Model Example
🇷🇼 Rwanda	15.7%	15% preferential / 28% standard	7–9%	Rising	Rwanda Development Board, low corruption, business climate reforms	✅ African Benchmark
🇮🇪 Ireland	~22%	12.5% effective	High / EU-leading	Extremely High	Deliberate low-CIT strategy since 2003; pharma & tech FDI magnet	✅ Model Example
🇪🇪 Estonia	~20–22%	0% on reinvested profits	Above EU avg.	High	Distribution-only CIT + world-leading e-governance; zero paper bureaucracy	✅ Digital Leader
🇲🇺 Mauritius	Moderate	15% flat rate	4–5%	High	Freeport/export incentives, 100% foreign ownership, zero capital gains	✅ Africa's #1
🇻🇳 Vietnam	~18–20%	10–20% (SEZ preferential)	6–7%	Very High	Doi Moi reforms + massive SEZ incentives; Samsung, Intel, Nike anchors	✅ Manufacturing Hub
🇰🇷 South Korea	~28–29% (now)	25% (now — rose AFTER transformation)	Historical miracle	~176%	Private chaebols first; tax rose ONLY AFTER private sector was built	📘 Historical Lesson
🇬🇪 Georgia	~24%	15%	Sustained post-reform	Growing	Rose Revolution 2003: 21 taxes → 5; radical simplification + anti-corruption	✅ Reform Model

Incentive Area	Tanzania EPZ/SEZ (Current)	Vietnam SEZ (Benchmark)	Rwanda / Mauritius Best Practice	Gap Assessment
Corporate Tax Holiday	10-year holiday on CIT	10–15 year holiday + 50% reduction after	Rwanda: up to 7-year + 15% preferential	⚠ Competitive — needs extension
VAT on Raw Materials	Exempt	Exempt	Exempt	✅ On par
Import Duty on Capital Goods	Exempt	Exempt	Exempt	✅ On par
Withholding Tax	Exempt (10-year holiday)	Exempt during holiday	Mauritius: 0% on most distributions	⚠ Mauritius more attractive long-term
Foreign Worker Permits	Up to 10 non-citizens; max 8-year work permits	Unrestricted for key roles in SEZs	Rwanda: No quota for priority sector investors	❌ Restrictive — deters skills transfer
Land Access / Tenure	Land bank; 99-year leases (2023 policy)	50–75 year lease, clear title system	Mauritius: 60-year leases + investor protection	⚠ Improving — disputes affect ~20% projects
One-Stop Centre	TISEZA OSFC launched 2025; 2,695 consultations Q1	Fully digital, <5 days registration	Rwanda: <6 hours company registration	🔄 Improving — cut from 60→30 days
Infrastructure in Zones	10 of 14 parks still in development; Bagamoyo started Dec 2025	Full infrastructure standard in all SEZs	Mauritius Freeport: world-class logistics	❌ Critical gap — biggest investor constraint
Customs Processing	On-site customs inspection	On-site + pre-clearance	48-hour clearance target	⚠ Adequate — needs digitisation upgrade

Constraint Area	Tanzania Severity	Impact on TFP	Firms Affected	Reform Priority
Tax Administration Complexity	Critical	Statistically Significant Negative (IMF SIP 2025)	Majority of formal firms	🔴 Urgent
Access to Finance / Credit	Critical	Statistically Significant Negative (IMF SIP 2025)	~70% of SMEs	🔴 Urgent
Transport / Logistics Access	High	Statistically Significant Negative (IMF SIP 2025)	Rural & agro-firms especially	🔴 Urgent
Electricity / Power Outages	High	Negative (non-parametric evidence)	34% of firms report as major issue	🟡 High
Regulatory Burden / Licensing	High	Negative (non-parametric evidence)	14% management time consumed	🟡 High
Land Acquisition & Title	Moderate-High	Reduces investment certainty	~20% of investment projects	🟡 High
Corruption / Facilitation Payments	Improving	No significant regression evidence (2023)	TI score improved 86% since 2001	🔵 Continue Progress
Trade & Cross-Border Obstacles	Moderate	Reduces export competitiveness	Export-oriented firms	🟡 High

National Debt Overview

Tanzania's total national debt — comprising both external and domestic obligations — stood at USD 51,112.8 million at end-February 2026, reflecting a marginal contraction of 0.2% from January 2026.

Total Debt (Feb 2026)

$51,112.8M

National debt stock, USD millions

External Debt Share

70.2%

of total national debt

Domestic Debt Share

29.8%

of total national debt

MoM Change

▼ 0.2%

vs. January 2026

Key Context: Tanzania's national debt split of 70.2% external / 29.8% domestic reflects the country's continued reliance on concessional external financing to fund infrastructure and development programmes. The slight overall contraction in February 2026 was driven primarily by a small decline in the external debt portfolio.

Total Debt Composition

Feb 2026 · USD Millions

Source: Ministry of Finance & Bank of Tanzania

Total Debt Stock — Monthly Trend

Feb 2025 – Feb 2026 · USD Millions

Source: Bank of Tanzania, Table A10

External Debt Analysis

Tanzania's external debt (public and private combined) reached USD 35,859.1 million at end-February 2026 — a decline of 0.1% from January 2026. Central government accounts for the dominant share at 82.7%.

External Debt Stock

$35,859.1M

End Feb 2026 (provisional)

Public Debt Share

82.7%

Central government

Private Sector Share

17.3%

Of external debt

Disbursements (Feb)

$83.8M

Mainly central govt

Debt Service (Feb)

$98.9M

Principal + Interest

External Debt Stock by Borrower

USD Millions · Feb-25 vs Jan-26 vs Feb-26

Borrower Category	Feb-25 (USD M)	Share %	Jan-26 (USD M)	Share %	Feb-26 (USD M)	Share %
Central Government	26,394.4	80.5%	29,687.2	82.7%	29,640.4	82.7%
Disbursed Outstanding (DOD)	26,317.1	80.3%	29,606.9	82.5%	29,560.2	82.4%
Interest Arrears	77.3	0.2%	80.3	0.2%	80.2	0.2%
Private Sector	6,389.9	19.5%	6,204.7	17.3%	6,218.7	17.3%
Disbursed Outstanding (DOD)	5,827.2	17.8%	5,770.3	16.1%	5,774.3	16.1%
Interest Arrears	562.8	1.7%	434.3	1.2%	444.5	1.2%
Public Corporations	3.8	0.0%	0.0	0.0%	0.0	0.0%
Total External Debt	32,788.0	100%	35,891.9	100%	35,859.1	100%

Source: Ministry of Finance and Bank of Tanzania · p = provisional data

External Debt Trend — Monthly

Feb 2025 – Feb 2026 · USD Millions (Selected months)

Source: Bank of Tanzania, Table A10

Creditor Composition

Multilateral institutions remain the dominant creditors at 57.8% of the external debt stock, followed by commercial lenders at 35.7%. Bilateral creditors account for just 4.4%.

Creditor Composition — Feb 2026

Percentage share of external debt stock

Multilateral57.8% · $20,730.5M

Commercial35.7% · $12,818.5M

Bilateral4.4% · $1,581.3M

Export Credit2.0% · $728.8M

External Debt by Creditors — Detail

USD Millions

Creditor	Feb-25	Jan-26	Feb-26	Share %
Multilateral	18,366.1	20,788.2	20,730.5	57.8%
DOD	18,335.1	20,765.1	20,707.6	57.7%
Interest Arrears	31.0	23.2	22.9	0.1%
Bilateral	1,349.5	1,591.6	1,581.3	4.4%
Commercial	11,918.0	12,786.3	12,818.5	35.7%
DOD	11,557.7	12,427.9	12,452.9	34.7%
Interest Arrears	360.3	358.4	365.6	1.0%
Export Credit	1,154.5	725.7	728.8	2.0%
Total	32,788.0	35,891.9	35,859.1	100%

Source: Ministry of Finance and Bank of Tanzania

Debt by Borrower Category

Central government dominates at 82.7% of total external debt. The private sector's share has slightly declined while public corporations now hold zero outstanding external debt.

Borrower Share Evolution — Feb 2025 to Feb 2026

Percentage share of disbursed outstanding debt

Source: Ministry of Finance and Bank of Tanzania

Notable: Public corporations (TANESCO, ATCL, TRC, TPA, TFC and DAWASA) now hold zero outstanding external debt as at February 2026, compared to USD 3.8 million in February 2025 — reflecting debt clearance efforts within state-owned enterprises.

Currency Composition of External Debt

The US Dollar dominates Tanzania's external debt currency mix at 66.0%, followed by the Euro at 17.7% and Chinese Yuan at 6.5%. This concentration creates exchange-rate sensitivity.

Currency Breakdown — Feb 2026

% share of disbursed outstanding debt

🇺🇸 US Dollar66.0% · $23,317.8M

🇪🇺 Euro17.7% · $6,255.8M

🇨🇳 Chinese Yuan6.5% · $2,306.3M

🌐 Other Currencies9.8% · $3,454.6M

Currency Composition Trend

% share — Feb 2025 vs Jan 2026 vs Feb 2026

Currency	Feb-25	Jan-26	Feb-26
US Dollar	67.6%	65.9%	66.0%
Euro	16.7%	17.7%	17.7%
Chinese Yuan	6.3%	6.5%	6.5%
Other	9.3%	9.8%	9.8%
Total	100%	100%	100%

Source: Ministry of Finance and Bank of Tanzania

Disbursed Outstanding Debt by Use of Funds

BoP & budget support and transport/telecommunications jointly account for over 44% of total disbursed external debt. Social welfare and education holds a significant 19.3% share.

Use of Funds — Percentage Share

Feb 2025 vs Feb 2026 (Provisional)

Source: Ministry of Finance and Bank of Tanzania

Use of Funds — Detailed Breakdown

% share of disbursed outstanding debt

Activity	Feb-25 (%)	Jan-26 (%)	Feb-26 (%)	Change
BoP & Budget Support	20.9	22.6	22.5	+1.6pp YoY
Transport & Telecommunication	21.2	21.8	21.9	+0.7pp YoY
Social Welfare & Education	20.0	19.4	19.3	−0.7pp YoY
Energy & Mining	13.1	12.0	12.0	−1.1pp YoY
Real Estate & Construction	4.8	4.9	4.9	+0.1pp YoY
Finance & Insurance	4.5	3.5	3.5	−1.0pp YoY
Agriculture	4.8	5.3	5.3	+0.5pp YoY
Industries	3.6	3.7	3.7	+0.1pp YoY
Tourism	1.6	1.8	1.8	+0.2pp YoY
Other	5.5	4.9	4.9	−0.6pp YoY
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0	—

pp = percentage points · Source: Ministry of Finance and Bank of Tanzania

Domestic Debt Analysis

Tanzania's domestic debt stock reached TZS 38,781.7 billion at end-February 2026, a 0.5% monthly increase. Treasury bonds dominate at 80.8% of total domestic debt, held predominantly by commercial banks and pension funds.

Domestic Debt Stock

TZS 38.8T

End Feb 2026 (provisional)

Treasury Bonds Share

80.8%

Of government securities

MoM Change

+0.5%

vs. January 2026

Govt Securities Issued

TZS 621.9B

In February 2026

Debt Servicing (Feb)

TZS 875.2B

Principal + Interest

Domestic Debt by Borrowing Instrument

TZS Billions · Feb 2026 (Provisional)

Instrument	Feb-25 (TZS B)	Feb-26 (TZS B)	Share %
Government Bonds	27,073.7	31,333.2	80.8%
Treasury Bills	1,847.4	1,653.0	4.3%
Government Stocks	187.1	135.7	0.4%
Tax Certificates	0.1	0.1	0.0%
Overdraft (Non-Securitised)	4,887.5	5,659.6	14.6%
Total	34,014.1	38,781.7	100%

Source: Ministry of Finance and Bank of Tanzania

Domestic Debt by Creditor Category

TZS Billions · Feb 2026 (Provisional)

Holder	Feb-25 (TZS B)	Feb-26 (TZS B)	Share %
Commercial Banks	9,791.4	10,834.3	27.9%
Pension Funds	9,097.2	10,463.9	27.0%
Bank of Tanzania	6,847.5	7,468.4	19.3%
Others	5,872.8	7,273.8	18.8%
Insurance	1,852.3	1,983.5	5.1%
BOT Special Funds	552.7	757.8	2.0%
Total	34,014.1	38,781.7	100%

Source: Ministry of Finance and Bank of Tanzania

Domestic Debt Stock — Historical Trend

TZS Billions · Feb 2018 – Feb 2026

Source: Ministry of Finance

Commercial Banks & Pension Funds collectively hold 54.9% of Tanzania's domestic debt — TZS 21,298.2 billion — underscoring the banking sector's key role as a financing conduit for government operations and the importance of pension fund governance in debt sustainability.

Debt Service Flows — February 2026

In February 2026, Tanzania's external debt service totalled USD 98.9 million while domestic debt servicing reached TZS 875.2 billion. Net external flows remained positive at USD 48.4 million.

External Debt Service — Feb 2026

USD Millions

Total Service

$98.9M

Feb 2026

Principal

$35.4M

Repayments

Interest

$63.5M

Payments

Source: Bank of Tanzania, Table A10

Domestic Debt Service — Feb 2026

TZS Billions

Total Service

TZS 875.2B

Feb 2026

Principal

TZS 472.2B

Repayments

Interest

TZS 403.0B

Payments

Source: Bank of Tanzania

External Debt Service — Monthly Trend

USD Millions · Feb 2025 – Feb 2026 (Selected Months)

Source: Bank of Tanzania, Table A10

Historical Debt Trend — Tanzania

Tanzania's external debt has grown significantly over the decade, rising from USD 20.5 billion in 2018 to USD 35.9 billion in February 2026 — an increase of approximately 75% over eight years.

Annual External & Domestic Debt Stock

USD Millions · Annual Data (Selected Economic Indicators)

Year	External Debt (USD M)	Domestic Debt (TZS B equiv.)	Disbursed (USD M)	Interest Arrears (USD M)
2018	20,503.0	13,742	18,765.1	1,737.9
2019	21,920.9	14,069	20,029.3	1,891.7
2020	22,952.7	14,644	20,958.4	1,994.3
2021	25,519.3	15,874	23,250.9	2,268.4
2022	27,832.5	22,159	25,392.8	2,439.7
2023	30,252.7	27,267	27,889.3	2,363.4
2024	31,950.9	31,739	30,416.1	1,534.8
2025p	34,765.3	34,014	34,053.0	712.3
Feb 2026p	35,859.1	38,782	35,334.4	~525

Source: Bank of Tanzania Selected Economic Indicators (Table A1) & Table A10 · p = provisional

Positive Trend: Despite rising debt levels, interest arrears have declined sharply from a peak of USD 2,439.7 million in 2022 to approximately USD 524.7 million in February 2026 — a 78% reduction — signalling improved debt management discipline and timely servicing by the Government of Tanzania.

Item	Feb-25	Jan-26	Feb-26p	Yr Feb 2024	Yr Feb 2025	Yr Feb 2026p	% Change (Yr)
Goods Account (Net)	-228.5	-292.4	-287.1	-5,996.1	-4,782.3	-4,406.5	▼ Improving -7.9%
Goods Exports	710.0	1,083.6	965.2	7,794.3	9,451.6	10,872.9	+15.0%
Goods Imports	938.5	1,376.0	1,252.3	13,790.4	14,233.9	15,279.3	+7.3%
Services Account (Net)	370.4	305.3	323.6	4,010.2	4,066.3	4,165.5	+2.4%
Services Receipts	598.8	606.8	608.6	6,340.1	6,913.9	7,520.3	+8.8%
Services Payments	228.4	301.5	285.0	2,329.9	2,847.6	3,354.9	+17.8%
G&S Balance	141.9	12.9	36.5	-1,985.9	-716.0	-241.0	▼ Improving -66.3%
Total Exports G&S	1,308.8	1,690.4	1,573.8	14,134.4	16,365.5	18,393.2	+12.4%
Total Imports G&S	1,167.0	1,677.5	1,537.3	16,120.3	17,081.5	18,634.2	+9.1%
Primary Income Account	-162.9	-199.7	-218.7	-1,531.6	-1,971.8	-2,133.0	+8.2%
Secondary Income Account	16.9	27.7	27.7	699.6	531.5	265.8	-50.0%
CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE	-4.2	-159.1	-154.4	-2,818.0	-2,156.3	-2,108.2	▼ Improving -2.2%

Category	Feb-25	Jan-26	Feb-26p	Yr Feb 2024	Yr Feb 2025	Yr Feb 2026p	% Change	Share 2026
Travel (Tourism)	—	—	—	3,495.3	3,981.3	4,352.3	+9.3%	57.9%
Transport (Freight)	—	—	—	2,297.1	2,385.4	2,726.0	+14.3%	36.2%
Other Services	—	—	—	547.8	547.2	442.0	-19.2%	5.9%
TOTAL Services Receipts	598.8	606.8	608.6	6,340.1	6,913.9	7,520.3	+8.8%	100%

Category	Feb-25	Jan-26	Feb-26p	Yr Feb 2024	Yr Feb 2025	Yr Feb 2026p	% Change	Share 2026
Transport (Freight)	—	—	—	1,283.8	1,406.0	1,541.1	+9.6%	45.9%
Other Services	—	—	—	640.9	892.8	1,074.6	+20.4%	32.0%
Travel	—	—	—	405.2	548.9	739.2	+34.7%	22.0%
TOTAL Services Payments	228.4	301.5	285.0	2,329.9	2,847.6	3,354.9	+17.8%	100%

Export Item	Yr Feb 2025	Yr Feb 2026p	Change (USD M)	% Change
Gold	3,658.9	4,968.4	+1,309.5	+35.8%
Travel (Tourism)	3,981.3	4,352.3	+371.0	+9.3%
Transportation	2,385.4	2,726.0	+340.6	+14.3%
Manufactured Goods	1,351.8	1,705.1	+353.3	+26.1%
Tobacco	525.4	625.7	+100.3	+19.1%
Cashewnuts	522.3	493.5	-28.8	-5.5%
Horticultural Products	499.3	465.1	-34.2	-6.9%
Coffee	323.5	403.8	+80.3	+24.8%
Oil Seeds	297.7	272.0	-25.7	-8.6%
Cereals	328.1	198.9	-129.2	-39.4%

Tenor	Jan-25	Feb-25	Mar-25	Apr-25	Jun-25	Aug-25	Oct-25	Dec-25	Jan-26	Feb-26	YoY Δ (bps)
35-Day	6.50	6.50	6.50	6.50	6.50	6.50	5.64	5.38	5.36	4.75	▼ −175
91-Day	7.76	7.76	7.42	7.50	7.50	7.36	6.08	5.93	5.73	4.97	▼ −279
182-Day	8.20	8.20	8.20	8.47	8.24	7.46	5.92	5.91	5.85	5.85	▼ −235
364-Day	12.63	11.99	10.11	8.92	8.92	6.79	6.45	6.24	6.21	6.20	▼ −579
Overall WAY	12.51	11.93	10.10	8.86	8.89	6.83	6.25	5.87	5.89	5.68	▼ −625

Tenor	Jan-25	Feb-25	Apr-25	Jun-25	Aug-25	Oct-25	Dec-25	Jan-26	Feb-26	YoY Δ (bps)
2-Year Bond	11.64	12.55	12.08	12.08	12.17	10.05	10.05	10.05	10.05	▼ −250
5-Year Bond	12.41	12.41	13.14	12.94	13.18	10.54	10.54	10.54	10.54	▼ −187
7-Year Bond	9.71	9.71	9.71	9.71	9.71	9.71	9.71	9.71	9.71	→ 0
10-Year Bond	14.08	14.08	14.26	14.26	13.74	12.45	12.45	11.30	11.30	▼ −278
15-Year Bond	15.76	15.76	14.63	14.63	13.91	12.08	12.08	12.08	10.78	▼ −498
20-Year Bond	15.71	15.28	15.11	14.50	14.50	13.55	12.02	12.02	12.02	▼ −326
25-Year Bond	15.84	15.84	15.84	14.80	14.42	13.19	13.19	13.19	11.99	▼ −385

Tenor	Jan-25	Feb-25	Apr-25	Jun-25	Aug-25	Oct-25	Dec-25	Jan-26	Feb-26	MoM Δ (bps)
Overnight	7.69	7.87	7.90	7.93	6.15	6.45	6.00	6.13	6.01	▼ −12
2–7 Day	7.74	8.02	7.98	7.96	6.52	6.29	6.30	6.34	6.31	▼ −3
8–14 Day	8.51	8.62	8.08	8.12	6.71	6.92	6.26	6.74	6.83	▲ +9
15–30 Day	8.58	8.77	8.37	6.95	6.87	7.07	6.40	7.06	6.96	▼ −10
31–60 Day	9.03	8.00	8.53	8.53	6.90	7.28	7.20	7.23	7.00	▼ −23
61–90 Day	6.75	7.00	9.11	9.14	9.14	9.14	8.11	9.96	7.00	▼ −296
91–180 Day	7.87	10.42	12.00	12.00	7.00	9.75	8.89	6.75	7.00	▲ +25
181+ Day	10.93	10.93	10.93	10.93	10.93	10.93	10.93	10.93	12.00	▲ +107
Overall IBCM Rate	7.80	8.06	8.00	7.94	6.48	6.38	6.29	6.40	6.34	▼ −6

Rate Type	Feb-25	Mar-25	Apr-25	Dec-25	Jan-26	Feb-26	MoM Δ (bps)
// LENDING RATES
Overall Lending Rate	15.14	15.50	15.16	15.24	15.10	15.11	▲ +1
Short-Term Lending (Up to 1 Yr)	15.77	15.83	16.15	15.46	15.49	15.41	▼ −8
Negotiated Lending Rate	13.42	12.94	12.88	12.38	12.25	12.19	▼ −6
// DEPOSIT RATES
Savings Deposit Rate	2.98	2.86	2.89	3.02	2.94	2.98	▲ +4
Overall Time Deposit Rate	8.13	8.00	7.82	8.36	8.33	8.32	▼ −1
12-Month Deposit Rate	9.48	8.14	9.27	9.58	9.70	9.82	▲ +12
Negotiated Deposit Rate	11.40	10.35	10.52	11.66	11.74	11.48	▼ −26
Short-Term Interest Rate Spread	6.29	7.69	6.88	5.88	5.79	5.59	▼ −20

Central Government Budgetary Operations: April 2026 at a Glance

What's Next for Tanzania's Economy? The Policy Gaps Keeping TZS 1 Trillion Out of Reach by 2050

1. Central Government Revenue — April 2026

Chart 1 — Central Government Revenue by Source, April 2026 (Billions of TZS)

2. Central Government Revenue — Cumulative FY2025/26 (July 2025–April 2026)

Chart 2 — Central Government Revenue: Full-Year Budget vs. Cumulative Performance (Billions of TZS)

3. Central Government Expenditure — April 2026

Chart 3 — Central Government Expenditure by Category, April 2026 (Billions of TZS)

4. Central Government Expenditure — Cumulative FY2025/26 (July 2025–April 2026)

Chart 4 — Expenditure: Full-Year Budget vs. Cumulative Performance (Billions of TZS)

5. Fiscal Balance: Revenue Minus Expenditure

Chart 5 — Central Government Revenue vs. Expenditure, April 2026 & Cumulative FY2025/26 (Billions of TZS)

6. Budget Execution Scorecard — April 2026 (% of Monthly Target Achieved)

Chart 6 — Budget Execution Rate by Line Item, April 2026 (% of Target)

Chart 7 — Composition of Central Government Expenditure, April 2026 Actual

Related TICGL Economic Research & Tools

What's Next for Tanzania's Economy? The Policy Gaps Keeping TZS 1 Trillion Out of Reach by 2050

Is Tanzania's Economy Growing?

What Opportunities and Risks Define Doing Business in Tanzania in 2026?

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Tanzania Business Intelligence Dashboard

Invest in Tanzania — TICGL Investment Advisory

TICGL Client Dashboard

Join TICGL as a Researcher

Muhtasari kwa Kiswahili

Executive Summary

What's Next for Tanzania's Economy? The Policy Gaps Keeping $1 Trillion Out of Reach by 2050

1. Inflation Developments

Chart 1: Tanzania Inflation Trend — Headline, Food, Energy & Core (Jan 2025 – May 2026)

2. Monetary Policy Stance

Chart 2: Extended Broad Money (M3) & Private Sector Credit — Outstanding Stock

Chart 3: Brent Crude Oil Price — Monthly Average (USD/barrel)

3. Financial Markets Deep Dive: Government Securities & Interbank Cash Market

3.1 Government Securities Market

Chart 4: Treasury Bills Yields by Tenor (Weighted Average Yield, %) — Mar 2025 to May 2026

Chart 5: Treasury Bonds Yield to Maturity by Tenor (%) — Mar 2025 to May 2026

Chart 6: Tanzania Government Securities Yield Curve — Snapshot, May 2026

3.2 Interbank Cash Market (IBCM)

Chart 7: Interbank Cash Market Rates — Overnight, 2–7 Day & Overall (%) — Mar 2025 to May 2026

Chart 8: IBCM Total Transactions vs. Reverse Repo Sold (TZS bn) — Apr vs May 2026

Chart 9: IBCM Volume Share by Maturity — May 2026

3.3 Interbank Foreign Exchange Market (IFEM)

Chart 10: TZS/USD Exchange Rate — End of Period, May 2025 to May 2026

Related TICGL Research & Tools

Muhtasari kwa Kiswahili

Executive Summary

What's Next for Tanzania's Economy? The Policy Gaps Keeping $1 Trillion Out of Reach by 2050

1. Lending Interest Rates by Tenor

Chart 1: Tanzania Lending Rates by Tenor (%) — March 2025 to May 2026

2. Deposit Interest Rates by Tenor

Chart 2: Tanzania Deposit Rates by Tenor (%) — March 2025 to May 2026

3. Interest Rate Spread Analysis

Chart 3: Overall Lending vs. Overall Deposit Rate, and Spread (Percentage Points) — March 2025 to May 2026

4. Negotiated Rates: Prime Client Pricing

Chart 4: Negotiated Lending Rate vs. Negotiated Deposit Rate (%) — March 2025 to May 2026

5. Foreign Currency Lending & Deposit Rates

Chart 5: TZS vs. Foreign Currency Overall Lending Rate (%) — March 2025 to May 2026

6. May 2026 Rate Ladder Snapshot

Chart 6: Tanzania Lending & Deposit Rate Ladder — Snapshot, May 2026

Related TICGL Research & Tools

Muhtasari kwa Kiswahili

1. What Is M3, and Why Should Anyone Outside a Bank Care?

M1 — Narrow money

M2 — Broad money

M3 — Extended broad money

2. The Numbers: How Fast Is Money Supply Actually Growing?

Chart 1 — M3 Money Supply Stock & Growth Trend (April 2025 – April 2026)

Chart 2 — Long-Term M3 Growth vs. Real GDP Growth (2018 – 2025)

3. What's Actually Driving the Growth

Chart 3 — Composition of M3 Growth: NFA vs. NDA

4. The Widening Money-vs-GDP Gap

The gap in one line

Chart 4 — Private Sector Credit to GDP Ratio, Tanzania (2018–2025)

5. The First Warning Sign: Core Inflation Starts to Accelerate

Chart 5 — M3 Growth vs. Core & Headline Inflation (Apr 2025 – Apr 2026)

6. Impact on Credit & Financial Deepening: Not All Sectors Are Growing Equally

Chart 6 — Annual Credit Growth by Economic Activity, April 2026

7. Impact on the Exchange Rate

8. The Fiscal Link: Government Domestic Borrowing

9. TICGL Risk Assessment