TICGL

| Economic Consulting Group

TICGL | Economic Consulting Group

Macroeconomic stability is a key driver of job creation and economic growth in Tanzania. Stable economic conditions—such as low inflation, consistent GDP growth, controlled fiscal deficits, and a favorable investment climate—create an environment where businesses expand, investments increase, and employment opportunities grow. According to the 2025 Employment Study, macroeconomic conditions directly influence both formal and informal employment trends in Tanzania.

This article explores how macroeconomic stability affects job creation, using figures from the study, and highlights policy recommendations for ensuring sustainable employment growth.

Macroeconomic Indicators and Employment Trends in Tanzania

Macroeconomic Indicator202320242025 (Projection)
GDP Growth Rate (%)5.25.66.0
Inflation Rate (%)4.84.24.0
Fiscal Deficit (% of GDP)3.93.53.2
Unemployment Rate (%)9.89.28.5

How Macroeconomic Stability Affects Job Creation

1. GDP Growth and Employment Expansion

A growing economy creates more jobs, especially in high-growth industries such as manufacturing, services, and ICT.

SectorEmployment Growth (2023-2025) (%)
Manufacturing18%
Agriculture & Agribusiness12%
Construction15%
ICT & Digital Economy22%
Tourism & Hospitality10%

2. Inflation and Wage Stability

Stable inflation supports higher real wages and business expansion, improving employment conditions.

YearAverage Wage Growth (%)Inflation Rate (%)
20235.54.8
20246.24.2
20257.04.0

3. Fiscal Policies and Government Investment in Job-Creating Sectors

Government spending plays a major role in employment, especially in infrastructure, public services, and industrialization.

SectorGovernment Investment Growth (%)
Infrastructure (Roads, Energy)30%
Education & Healthcare18%
SME & Business Support22%

4. Exchange Rate Stability and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)

A stable exchange rate makes Tanzania more attractive to investors, boosting job creation in export-driven sectors.

YearExchange Rate (TZS/USD)FDI Inflows (Million USD)
20232,3201,500
20242,2801,750
20252,250 (Projected)2,000 (Projected)

Challenges to Job Creation Despite Macroeconomic Stability

ChallengeNumber of RespondentsPercentage (%)
Skills mismatch72030%
Slow SME growth60025%
High youth unemployment55022%
Regional economic disparities43017%

Opportunities to Enhance Job Creation Through Macroeconomic Stability

1. Expanding Vocational Training and Skills Development

Aligning skills with market demand can reduce unemployment and improve workforce readiness.

Training InitiativeExpected Employment Growth (%)
Digital skills training40%
Vocational education programs30%
University-private sector partnerships25%

2. Strengthening SME Growth for Job Creation

Supporting small and medium enterprises (SMEs) can expand formal employment opportunities.

SME Growth InitiativeExpected Increase in Jobs (%)
Access to low-interest loans35%
Simplified business registration25%
Digital financing for entrepreneurs20%

3. Enhancing Investment in Industrialization and PPPs

Boosting Public-Private Partnerships (PPPs) and industrial growth can increase formal employment opportunities.

SectorProjected Employment Growth (%)
Special Economic Zones40%
Agro-Processing30%
Export Manufacturing25%

Conclusion and Policy Recommendations

Macroeconomic stability has played a crucial role in Tanzania’s job creation efforts, improving GDP growth, investment inflows, and employment expansion. However, structural challenges such as skills gaps, slow SME growth, and youth unemployment still need to be addressed.

Key Policy Recommendations:

  1. Invest in Workforce Skills Development – Expand vocational and digital skills training to align with market needs.
  2. Support SME Growth and Entrepreneurship – Provide affordable financing, business training, and regulatory reforms.
  3. Encourage Foreign Investment in Job-Creating Sectors – Strengthen FDI incentives in manufacturing, ICT, and agribusiness.
  4. Expand Infrastructure and Industrialization Projects – Develop Special Economic Zones (SEZs) to create more formal jobs.
  5. Ensure Policy Stability and Economic Reforms – Maintain low inflation, stable exchange rates, and fiscal discipline to support long-term job creation.

NOTE:

The research and case studies presented in this report were conducted by Tanzania Investment and Consulting Group Limited (TICGL) to analyze employment trends, macroeconomic stability, and job creation dynamics in Tanzania. The study covered a sample size of 2,500 respondents, representing diverse economic sectors and geographic regions. A mixed-methods approach was employed, integrating quantitative surveys (85%), structured interviews (10%), and focus group discussions (5%) to gather both statistical data and qualitative insights. The research was conducted across six key regions: Dar es Salaam (25% of respondents), Mwanza (18%), Arusha (15%), Dodoma (14%), Mbeya (12%), and Morogoro (16%), ensuring a balance between urban and rural employment patterns.

The findings indicate that Tanzania’s workforce is 71.8% informal (25.95 million workers) and 28.2% formal (10.17 million workers), highlighting a significant divide in job security, wages, and access to social protection. Among the 2,500 surveyed individuals, formal employment accounts for 23% (550 individuals), predominantly in government (32% of formal jobs), banking and financial services (25%), manufacturing (18%), and education and healthcare (15%). On the other hand, informal employment constitutes 49% (1,170 individuals), with key sectors including agriculture (35% of informal workers), small businesses and trade (28%), transportation (15%), and casual labor (12%). The remaining 27% (650 individuals) were unemployed, with youth unemployment (ages 18–35) reaching 33%, significantly higher than the national average of 9.2%.

Employment trends indicate that formal employment is projected to rise to 38% by 2030, driven by industrialization, digital transformation, and policy reforms. However, major barriers continue to slow the transition, including limited job availability (42%), skills mismatches (26%), and bureaucratic challenges (21%). The study also found that women make up 65% of the informal workforce, primarily due to barriers in accessing formal jobs, while 72% of youth are engaged in informal employment due to limited entry-level job opportunities.

To bridge the gap between formal and informal employment, Tanzania must focus on expanding SME growth, strengthening vocational training programs, improving access to financial services for small businesses, and reducing bureaucratic hurdles for business registration. This report emphasizes the key trends, challenges, and opportunities shaping Tanzania’s employment landscape and highlights the role of public-private partnerships, investment in digital workforce expansion, and targeted policy interventions in creating a more structured and inclusive workforce by 2030.

Tanzania’s National Development Plan for 2025/26 outlines strategic priorities to sustain economic growth, enhance infrastructure, and improve social services. With a projected GDP growth of 6.0%, the plan emphasizes industrialization, investment, agriculture, and public-private partnerships (PPP) to drive development. Key focus areas include energy expansion, transport modernization, job creation, and food security, ensuring a resilient and self-sufficient economy while preparing for Vision 2050.

Key Highlights and Figures:

1. Economic Performance (2024/2025)

2. Development Achievements (2019/20 – 2024/25)

Indicator2019/202024/25 TargetAchievement (%)
Electricity Production (MW)1,602.323,077.9663%
Villages Connected to Electricity8,58712,318100%
Water Service Coverage in Rural Areas (%)70.1%79.6%94%
Maternal Mortality (per 100,000 births)556180173%
Students Transitioning from Primary to Secondary (%)48%90%78%
Investment Projects Registered at TIC (per year)207901150%
Investment Value (USD Billion)-8.501104%
Food Self-Sufficiency (%)114%140%91%
Irrigated Agriculture Area (Hectares)694,715983,46682%
Number of Tourists1,035,6874,244,26685%
Tourism Revenue (USD Billion)-668%

3. Budget for 2025/26

4. Key Priority Areas for 2025/26

  1. Competitive and Inclusive Economy – Infrastructure (transport, ICT, energy), improving business environment.
  2. Manufacturing and Services – Boosting industrial productivity.
  3. Investment and Trade – Improving regulatory frameworks, tax policies.
  4. Human Development – Education, health, water, land planning, youth skill development.
  5. Human Capital Development – Strengthening technical and vocational training.

5. Major Government Plans

The plan aligns with Tanzania’s Vision 2025 and is part of the Third Five-Year National Development Plan (2021/22 – 2025/26). The government aims to complete ongoing projects while preparing for Vision 2050. The focus remains on sustaining economic growth, improving social services, and enhancing private sector involvement.

Tanzania’s National Development Plan for 2025/26, outlining the country’s economic performance, achievements, budget allocations, and strategic priorities.

1. Economic Growth & Stability

2. Development Achievements (2019 – 2024/25)

The government has made significant progress in infrastructure, energy, agriculture, health, and education:

3. Budget Priorities for 2025/26

4. Key Priorities for 2025/26

5. Future Outlook

Overall Message

The Tanzania Shilling (TZS) showed significant appreciation in December 2024, reversing the depreciation trend observed in previous months. The currency’s movement was influenced by increased foreign exchange inflows, monetary policy adjustments, and external economic conditions.

1. Exchange Rate Appreciation

2. Factors Behind the Shilling’s Strengthening

The appreciation of the TZS was driven by multiple factors:
Increased Foreign Exchange Inflows:

3. Impact of a Stronger Shilling

🔹 Positive Effects

🔹 Potential Risks

Key Takeaways:

The Bank of Tanzania’s monetary policy remains crucial in balancing currency stability, inflation control, and economic growth

Implications for Credit, Savings, and Economic Growth

In December 2024, Tanzania’s interest rates showed mixed movements, reflecting shifts in monetary policy and banking sector dynamics. The overall lending rate declined to 15.17% from 15.67%, making credit more affordable, while deposit rates rose to 8.33% from 8.18%, incentivizing savings. The spread between short-term lending and deposit rates narrowed to 6.12 percentage points, down from 7.02% in December 2023, signaling increased banking sector efficiency. These trends suggest a pro-growth monetary policy stance, aimed at boosting investment and economic activity while maintaining financial stability​

The interest rates in Tanzania, as reported in the Bank of Tanzania's Monthly Economic Review (January 2025), are as follows:

Lending and Deposit Interest Rates (December 2024)

  1. Overall Lending Rate:
    • 15.17%, down from 15.67% in November 2024.
  2. Negotiated Lending Rate:
    • 12.83%, up from 12.77% in November 2024.
  3. Overall Deposit Rate:
    • 8.33%, up from 8.18% in November 2024.
  4. Negotiated Deposit Rate:
    • 10.39%, up from 10.14% in November 2024.
  5. Short-term Lending Rate (Up to 1 Year):
    • 15.74%, compared to 15.56% in November 2024.
  6. Savings Deposit Rate:
    • 2.84%, up from 2.69% in November 2024.
  7. 12-Month Time Deposit Rate:
    • 9.62%, slightly lower than 9.63% in November 2024.

Interest Rate Spread

The changes in interest rates reflect key economic and monetary policy dynamics in Tanzania

1. Declining Lending Rates (15.17% from 15.67%)

2. Rising Deposit Rates (8.33% from 8.18%)

3. Narrowing Interest Rate Spread (6.12% from 7.02%)

4. Implications for the Economy

Overall Takeaway

The trend suggests a pro-growth monetary policy stance, with lower borrowing costs stimulating economic activities, while banks adjust their deposit rates to maintain liquidity and profitability. However, higher negotiated lending rates in some cases suggest that banks remain cautious about credit risks in certain sectors.

In 2024, Tanzania achieved remarkable progress in transforming its investment landscape, attracting over TZS 40 trillion through Public-Private Partnerships (PPPs) and increasing business registrations by 25% compared to the previous year. With a focus on modernizing key sectors such as agriculture, energy, and digital infrastructure, the government maintained economic stability, keeping inflation at 4% and increasing the tax-to-GDP ratio to 14.5%. As the nation looks to 2025, ambitious plans aim to mobilize an additional TZS 50 trillion to drive industrialization, enhance energy generation by 300 MW, and modernize 200,000 hectares of agricultural land, paving the way for inclusive and sustainable growth.

Investment Achievements and Focus Areas (2024):

  1. Improved Investment Flow:
    • Investment achievements are linked to a growing inflow of capital in key sectors such as agriculture, energy, and infrastructure.
    • Figure Example: TZS 40 trillion is targeted through Public-Private Partnerships (PPPs) to supplement government development projects.
  2. Sectoral Contributions:
    • Agriculture: This remains a priority for Tanzania's economy, contributing approximately 26.7% to GDP and employing over 65% of the workforce.
    • Energy and Infrastructure: Massive investments have been directed toward renewable energy projects and transportation networks, such as port expansions and rail development.
    • Digitalization: Efficiency improvements in business processes are projected to reduce licensing times from 7 days to 3 days, fostering a business-friendly environment.

Business Environment Enhancements:

Economic Targets for 2025:

  1. Projected Investment Goals:
    • The government aims to attract an additional TZS 50 trillion in both foreign and local investments, focusing on industrialization and renewable energy adoption.
    • PPP Contributions: Private sector involvement is expected to cover nearly 60% of large-scale projects.
  2. Sectoral Expansion:
    • Plans to modernize 200,000 hectares of agricultural land with irrigation systems and mechanized farming to enhance productivity.
    • Increase the energy generation capacity by 300 MW, particularly focusing on renewable sources like hydropower and solar.

Economic Performance and Challenges:

  1. Revenue Growth:
    • Revenue collections have increased by 10% in 2024 compared to the previous year, amounting to approximately TZS 25 trillion.
    • Tax-to-GDP ratio improved to 14.5% in 2024, up from 13.9% in 2023.
  2. Inflation Control:
    • Inflation rates have been maintained at around 4%, attributed to effective fiscal and monetary policies.

Tanzania’s government is leveraging strategic investments to drive economic growth while addressing infrastructure deficits and promoting sustainable development. The figures highlight significant progress in revenue collection, sectoral contributions, and investment mobilization, aligning with Vision 2025 goals.

Tanzania's progress in improving its business environment, attracting investments, and achieving economic development goals for 2024, while laying out ambitious targets for 2025

1. Progress in Investment Climate

2. Key Economic Sectors Driving Growth

3. Goals for 2025

4. Economic Metrics and Stability

5. Commitment to Long-Term Growth

Hence, Tanzania’s commitment to fostering a competitive and efficient investment environment to achieve its Vision 2025 goals. It communicates confidence in ongoing reforms and ambitious plans for economic diversification and industrial growth. The specific figures, targets, and sectoral focus underline the government’s strategic planning and performance in driving the economy forward.

This research provides an in-depth look at the trends in foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows into Tanzania, revealing both stability and fluctuations over recent years. Quarterly FDI ranged from $216 million to $521.8 million, with an annual average between $1.4 billion and $2 billion. The data reflects Tanzania's appeal as an investment destination in key sectors like mining and infrastructure, driven by favorable policies and economic resilience. These figures underscore the importance of policy stability in sustaining investor confidence and maximizing FDI's positive impact on economic growth.

Key Figures and Averages

  1. Quarterly Inflows: FDI inflows in Tanzania ranged from $216 million to $521.8 million per quarter. Specifically:
    • 2017-2019: Average quarterly inflows were between $354 million and $390 million.
    • 2020-2023: There was variability, with figures dropping closer to $216 million in some quarters but peaking around $521.8 million during other periods.
  2. Annual Average: On an annual basis, the figures suggest that FDI averaged around $1.4 billion to $2 billion, though fluctuations occurred due to external economic factors and internal investment policies.

Observed Trends and Breakdown

Insights

  1. Investment Resilience: Despite some fluctuations, Tanzania maintained significant FDI inflows, underlining its appeal in key sectors.
  2. Policy Implications: Continued growth in FDI, especially in sectors such as infrastructure and natural resources, reflects favorable policy environments. Strengthening policies could further stabilize and grow FDI.
  3. Investor Confidence: The trends suggest a generally positive outlook, with investor confidence likely driven by Tanzania’s economic reforms and strategic regional position.

Overall, these FDI figures underscore Tanzania's potential as an attractive investment destination, though maintaining and increasing FDI may require attention to both policy stability and global economic conditions.

The data on foreign direct investments (FDI) into Tanzania highlights several key aspects of the country's economic landscape:

  1. Attractiveness as an Investment Destination: The steady inflow of FDI, even with some fluctuations, indicates that Tanzania remains an appealing destination for international investors. This is likely due to its natural resources, strategic location, and the potential for growth in sectors such as mining, energy, and infrastructure.
  2. Economic Resilience and Growth Potential: The resilience of FDI inflows, especially amid global economic challenges, speaks to Tanzania’s underlying economic strengths. This flow of capital can support economic diversification, infrastructure development, and job creation, driving long-term growth.
  3. Impact of Policy and Stability: The stability of FDI inflows often reflects investor confidence in Tanzania’s regulatory environment and economic policies. Periods of high FDI inflows may coincide with favorable policies, while declines can indicate investor caution. Consistent FDI growth suggests effective policy frameworks, while fluctuations highlight areas for policy reinforcement to sustain investor confidence.
  4. Sectoral and Regional Benefits: Significant FDI inflows suggest that sectors such as energy, construction, and mining attract substantial investment. This brings benefits to these industries and regions, stimulating regional development, technology transfer, and skill-building, which can positively impact the broader economy.
  5. Foreign Exchange and Financial Stability: FDI also bolsters Tanzania’s foreign exchange reserves, helping to stabilize the currency and reducing reliance on foreign debt. This can improve Tanzania’s balance of payments and contribute to greater financial stability.
  6. Opportunity for Policy Enhancement: The data implies that policy measures aimed at improving the investment climate—such as streamlined regulations, tax incentives, and improved infrastructure—could help attract even more FDI. Such policies could ensure Tanzania remains competitive and encourage sustainable, long-term investments.

In sum, the trends in FDI inflows reflect Tanzania's position as a significant investment destination, capable of attracting capital that can drive development and economic growth while highlighting opportunities for enhancing investment conditions.

TICGL | Business Class
TICGL | Tanzania Investment and Consultant Group Ltd Dar es Salaam, Tanzania

TICGL | Business Class

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A premium knowledge and advisory platform designed to equip entrepreneurs, SMEs, corporate leaders, and investors with the tools they need to thrive in Tanzania's evolving economic landscape.

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Clear, data-driven updates on Tanzania's economic trends, sector analyses, and business climate assessments.

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Head Office

Dar es Salaam, Tanzania
+255 768 699 002
+255 734 862 343
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www.ticgl.com

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