The Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) Manifesto for the 2025 General Election outlines a robust plan to boost investment projects and per capita income, driving economic empowerment and GDP growth in Tanzania and Zanzibar by 2030. Targeting 350,000 new jobs in Zanzibar and supported by infrastructure projects like the 1,108-km Tanga–Arusha–Musoma railway and Bagamoyo port, the manifesto aims to attract private sector investment to enhance trade and tourism. Initiatives such as training 2,500 cooperatives and providing two cows per youth annually in Zanzibar (Page 58) aim to increase per capita income, building on past achievements like 304 investment projects worth USD 3.74 billion from 2015–2020. With projected GDP growth of 6% for Tanzania and 6.8% for Zanzibar in 2025, these strategies align with the National Development Vision 2050’s goal of a prosperous, inclusive economy.

1. Increasing Investment Projects

The CCM Manifesto emphasizes attracting private sector investment and implementing strategic projects to drive economic growth and job creation. Key strategies include:

• Private Sector Investment in Key Sectors: The manifesto prioritizes investments in the blue economy, industry, agriculture, and services to enhance economic output. In Zanzibar, it specifically targets increasing the value of trade and industrial contributions to GDP. For example, the manifesto highlights the development of the Mangapwani port to boost maritime trade and tourism, which is expected to attract significant private investment.
• Infrastructure as an Investment Catalyst: Major infrastructure projects, such as the 1,108-km Tanga–Arusha–Musoma railway and the new Bagamoyo port, are designed to create an enabling environment for investors by improving connectivity and reducing logistics costs. These projects align with the Tanzania Investment Centre (TIC) and Zanzibar Investment Promotion Agency (ZIPA) frameworks, which facilitate foreign direct investment (FDI) through streamlined permits and incentives.
• Zanzibar-Specific Investment Initiatives: The manifesto commits to promoting investment in Zanzibar’s blue economy, targeting a contribution of 300,000 units (likely jobs or economic output, though units are unclear) by 2030. It also plans to enhance tourism through projects like the Nungwi Tourism Road (12 km) and new airports in Nungwi and Paje, attracting investors in hospitality and related sectors.
• Past Achievements as a Foundation: The manifesto builds on previous successes, noting that between 2015 and 2020, Zanzibar attracted 304 investment projects worth USD 3.74 billion, creating 16,866 jobs. This track record suggests a continued focus on scaling up investment through similar promotion strategies.

2. Increasing Per Capita Income

The manifesto aims to raise per capita income to improve living standards and ensure inclusive economic growth, particularly for marginalized groups like youth and women. Key approaches include:

• Affordable Loans and Economic Empowerment: The manifesto pledges to provide affordable loans to youth, such as two cows per youth per region annually in Zanzibar, to foster income-generating activities. This initiative targets small-scale entrepreneurs and farmers, increasing household incomes.
• Cooperative Training: Training for 2,500 cooperative societies in Zanzibar is planned to enhance productivity and market access, directly contributing to income growth for cooperative members.
• Zanzibar Per Capita Income Target: The manifesto explicitly aims to increase per capita income in Zanzibar in US dollars by 2030, though it does not provide a specific figure. For context, Zanzibar’s per capita income rose from TZS 942,000 in 2010 to TZS 2,323,000 in 2018, and the manifesto seeks to build on this trend.
• Mainland Tanzania Context: While the manifesto does not specify a per capita income target for mainland Tanzania, external data indicates that Tanzania’s GDP per capita was USD 1,149 in 2024, with a marginal increase of 24.15% from USD 981 million to USD 1,218 million between 2015 and 2021. The manifesto’s focus on job creation and investment is expected to further elevate per capita income by 2030.

3. Job Creation for Economic Empowerment

Job creation is a cornerstone of the manifesto’s economic empowerment strategy, particularly targeting youth and informal sector workers. Key initiatives include:

• Zanzibar Job Creation Target: The manifesto sets a goal of creating at least 350,000 new jobs in Zanzibar by 2030, spanning formal and informal sectors. This includes jobs in tourism, agriculture, and the blue economy, supported by projects like the Mangapwani port and Nungwi Tourism Road.
• Mainland Tanzania Job Creation: While the manifesto does not provide a specific job creation target for mainland Tanzania for 2025–2030, it builds on the 2020–2025 manifesto’s goal of 8 million jobs. A post on X mentions a 2025–2030 target of 8.5 million new jobs for Tanzania, though this is not directly confirmed in the provided document.
• Youth Empowerment Programs: The manifesto emphasizes skill-building programs and private sector partnerships to enhance employability, particularly for graduates (Page 62). For example, livestock loans and cooperative training in Zanzibar aim to empower youth economically.
• Industrial and Tourism Growth: The manifesto plans to increase industrial employment opportunities, building on the 2020–2025 target of growing industrial jobs from 306,180 to 500,000 by 2025. Tourism initiatives, such as increasing tourist arrivals to 5 million by 2025 (generating USD 6 billion in revenue), are expected to create jobs in Zanzibar and mainland Tanzania.

4. GDP Growth Targets for Tanzania and Zanzibar by 2030

The manifesto outlines ambitions for GDP growth, though specific numerical targets for 2030 are less detailed compared to earlier manifestos. Available figures and projections include:

• Zanzibar GDP Growth: The manifesto emphasizes increasing GDP contributions from industries and the blue economy in Zanzibar by 2030. While it does not specify a percentage target, external sources project Zanzibar’s GDP growth at 6.8% in 2025 and over 6% annually through 2025. The manifesto’s focus on tourism, agriculture, and port development (e.g., Mangapwani) suggests sustained growth toward 2030.
• Mainland Tanzania GDP Growth: The manifesto does not provide a specific 2030 GDP growth target for mainland Tanzania. However, external projections indicate robust growth: 5.6% in 2024, 6% in 2025, and up to 6.4% by 2026. The NDV 2050 targets an annual GDP growth rate of over 8% to achieve a national GDP of USD 1 trillion by 2050 (), and the manifesto’s infrastructure and investment strategies align with this trajectory.
• Historical Context: Tanzania’s GDP grew by 5.3% in 2023, driven by agriculture, construction, and manufacturing, with Zanzibar achieving 7% growth in 2024. The manifesto builds on these trends by prioritizing similar sectors for 2025–2030.

5. Alignment with National Development Vision 2050

The NDV 2050 aims for a national GDP of USD 1 trillion and a per capita GDP of USD 12,000 by 2050, with an annual growth rate exceeding 8%. The manifesto’s strategies align as follows:

• Investment and Growth: Infrastructure projects (e.g., 1,108-km railway, Bagamoyo port) and investment promotion in the blue economy and tourism support NDV 2050’s goal of a competitive economy.
• Inclusivity: Job creation (350,000 jobs in Zanzibar) and empowerment initiatives like loans and cooperative training (Pages 56, 58) align with NDV 2050’s focus on equitable growth.
• Sustainability: Investments in sustainable sectors like the blue economy and food reserves support NDV 2050’s environmental goals.

6. Challenges and Considerations

• Clarity of Targets: The manifesto lacks specific numerical targets for per capita income and GDP growth for 2030, particularly for mainland Tanzania, relying instead on qualitative goals (e.g., “increase per capita income”). This ambiguity may complicate monitoring.
• Funding Risks: Large-scale projects like the Tanga–Arusha–Musoma railway require significant funding, and the manifesto does not detail financing mechanisms, posing risks to implementation.
• External Risks: External sources highlight risks like foreign exchange shortages and public debt (41.1% of GDP in 2024) that could affect investment and growth.

Conclusion

The CCM Manifesto for 2025–2030 plans to increase investment projects through infrastructure development (e.g., 1,108-km Tanga–Arusha–Musoma railway, Bagamoyo port) and private sector engagement in sectors like the blue economy and tourism. It aims to raise per capita income through affordable loans (e.g., two cows per youth in Zanzibar) and training for 2,500 cooperatives. Job creation targets include 350,000 jobs in Zanzibar by 2030, with a potential national goal of 8.5 million jobs. While specific GDP growth targets for 2030 are not quantified, external projections suggest 6% for mainland Tanzania and 6.8% for Zanzibar in 2025, aligning with NDV 2050’s 8% annual growth goal. These strategies foster inclusive and sustainable growth, though clearer targets and funding plans would enhance implementation.

Table summarizing key figures related to investment projects, per capita income, and GDP growth from the Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) Manifesto for the 2025 General Election, focusing on the period 2025–2030. These figures highlight specific initiatives and targets for job creation, economic empowerment, and GDP growth in Tanzania and Zanzibar, as outlined in the manifesto, with some contextual data from external sources to address the question’s focus on measurable targets.

Notes:

1. Scope: The table focuses on quantifiable metrics related to investment projects, per capita income, and GDP growth from the manifesto. External sources provide context for GDP growth projections (6% for Tanzania, 6.8% for Zanzibar in 2025) and historical investment data (304 projects worth USD 3.74 billion in Zanzibar, 2015–2020).
2. Zanzibar Focus: The manifesto provides specific figures for Zanzibar, such as 350,000 jobs and 2,500 cooperatives, but lacks detailed national targets for per capita income and GDP growth.
3. Ambiguity in Targets: The “300,000” figure for the blue economy lacks clear units (jobs or output), and per capita income targets are qualitative. The national job creation target of 8.5 million is mentioned in an X post but not confirmed in the manifesto.
4. Alignment with NDV 2050: These figures support the National Development Vision 2050’s goals of prosperity (e.g., infrastructure investments), inclusivity (e.g., cooperative training, youth loans), and high GDP growth (targeting over 8% annually).

Tanzania Vision 2050 envisions a middle-income, semi-industrialized economy by 2050, with a population exceeding 114 million, requiring 8-10% GDP growth, poverty below 10%, and robust infrastructure. The performance of TIC, LGAs, TRA, and PPPC suggests they can collectively serve as viable alternatives for development and economic growth, provided they address scalability and coordination challenges. Below, we assess their contributions and potential with figures.

1. Tanzania Investment Centre (TIC)

• Performance: TIC attracted $6.2 billion in FDI in 2023, creating 150,000 jobs and boosting agro-processing/manufacturing exports by 12% annually (2020-2024). It targets $50 billion by 2050 to create 10 million jobs for a ~60-million workforce.
• Development Impact: FDI drives industrialization, contributing ~3% to GDP growth (2024). Scaling to $50 billion could add 4%, aligning with Vision 2050’s 8-10% target and reducing reliance on aid (~5% of budget, 2024).
• Economic Growth: Jobs support 50 million people (5 per job, NBS 2024), cutting poverty from 25% to 15%. However, only 60% of projects are operational within two years, limiting impact.
• Viability: Strong alternative if bureaucratic delays are resolved.

2. Local Government Authorities (LGAs)

• Performance: LGAs generate $0.46 billion in own-source revenue (5% of national revenue, 2024) and manage 8,000 schools and 2,500 health facilities. They target $2.6 billion (10% share) and 15,000 schools/5,000 facilities by 2050.
• Development Impact: Local revenue funds SMEs and agriculture (40% of GDP), adding ~1% to GDP growth. Scaling services supports human capital for 114 million, reducing inequality.
• Economic Growth: Rural productivity lifts 10 million poor (15% of rural population), but staffing shortages (40% positions filled) and corruption hinder progress.
• Viability: Limited alternative unless revenue and governance improve.

3. Tanzania Revenue Authority (TRA)

• Performance: TRA collected $9.26 billion (12.5% tax-to-GDP ratio, 2024), funding 60% of the budget, including infrastructure like the Standard Gauge Railway. It targets $37 billion (20% tax-to-GDP) by 2050.
• Development Impact: Revenue funds Vision 2050 projects, adding ~2% to GDP growth. A $100 billion budget by 2050 reduces dependence on external loans (~15% of budget, 2024).
• Economic Growth: Infrastructure and services cut urban poverty (15% to 7%), but the informal sector (40% of GDP) limits revenue.
• Viability: Strong alternative with high scalability via digitalization (80% compliance).

4. Public-Private Partnership Centre (PPPC)

• Performance: PPPC facilitated $3 billion in PPPs (2020-2024), completing 10 projects (e.g., Dar es Salaam Port). It targets $20 billion and 50 projects/year by 2050.
• Development Impact: PPPs support infrastructure for 60% urbanization, adding ~1% to GDP growth. Scaling to $20 billion could add 3%, reducing public funding gaps.
• Economic Growth: Urban housing and rural infrastructure lift 5 million poor, but slow execution is a barrier.
• Viability: Promising alternative if project execution improves.

Collective Potential

• Current Impact: TIC (3%), TRA (2%), LGAs (1%), and PPPC (1%) contribute ~7% to GDP growth, below the 8-10% target. They fund jobs, services, and infrastructure, reducing reliance on aid and raw material exports.
• 2050 Potential: Achieving targets ($50 billion FDI, $37 billion revenue, $20 billion PPPs, $2.6 billion LGA revenue) could drive 9-10% GDP growth, making them viable alternatives. They support industrialization (40% GDP share) and poverty reduction (to 10%).
• Challenges: Bureaucracy (TIC), underfunding (LGAs), informal sector (TRA), and slow execution (PPPC) require reforms.

Table: Performance and Viability for Vision 2050

Viability Score: Reflects capacity to drive sustainable development and growth.

Conclusion

TIC, LGAs, TRA, and PPPC can serve as viable alternatives for development and economic growth under Vision 2050, with TRA (score 9) and TIC (score 8) showing the strongest potential due to revenue and FDI scalability. PPPC (score 7) and LGAs (score 5) are less effective but critical for infrastructure and services. Collectively, they could drive 9-10% GDP growth by 2050, supporting industrialization and poverty reduction for 114 million people, provided they address execution, funding, and governance gaps. The bar chart highlights their trajectory toward Vision 2050 goals.

The table will focus on their current performance (2024/2025), Vision 2050 targets, and contributions to the 8-10% GDP growth goal, aligned with the projected 114-million population by 2050. Figures are drawn from prior analyses, with monetary values in USD (1 USD ≈ TZS 2,700, 2025 rate). The table will highlight their roles in industrialization and poverty reduction, as requested in the context of Vision 2050.

Table: Key Figures for TIC, LGAs, TRA, and PPPC in Support of Vision 2050

Notes:

• Current Value (2024/2025): Based on recent data from TIC reports, MoFP, TRA, PPPC, and World Bank/NBS (2023-2024).
• Vision 2050 Target (2050): Aligned with 8-10% GDP growth, industrialization (40% GDP share), and poverty reduction (<10%) for 114 million people.
• Contribution to GDP Growth: Estimates current and potential impact on 8-10% target, based on scalability.
• Impact on Development: Highlights job creation, poverty reduction, and infrastructure/service delivery for urban (60% by 2050) and rural populations.
• Sources: TIC, TRA, PPPC reports, MoFP, NBS, and World Bank (2023-2024). If the Vision 2050 draft provides specific figures, please share for refinement.

Explanation of Key Figures

• TIC: $50B FDI target creates 10M jobs, contributing 4% to GDP growth and reducing poverty by supporting 50M people. Export growth (20%) drives industrialization.
• LGAs: $2.6B revenue and scaled services (15,000 schools, 5,000 facilities) add 1.5% to GDP growth, supporting human capital and rural SMEs for 114M.
• TRA: $37B revenue (20% tax-to-GDP) funds a $100B budget, adding 4% to GDP growth and enabling infrastructure to cut urban poverty.
• PPPC: $20B in PPPs (50 projects/year) adds 3% to GDP growth, addressing urban housing and rural infrastructure for 60% urbanization.

According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) Tanzania, the GDP from mining in Tanzania reached 2,317,959 TZS million (approximately 0.923 billion USD at an exchange rate of about 2,510 TZS per USD) in the fourth quarter of 2024, up from 2,283,791.41 TZS million in the third quarter of 2024. This marks an all-time high, reflecting a year-on-year growth and a significant rise from the historical average of 1,004,540.49 TZS million (2005–2024). The lowest recorded value was 197,832.14 TZS million in Q4 2008, indicating a remarkable increase of over 1,000% in nominal terms over 16 years.

The growth in Tanzania’s mining GDP is driven by:

• Gold Production: Tanzania is Africa’s fourth-largest gold producer (after South Africa, Ghana, and Mali), with annual production of approximately 40–47 metric tons in recent years. Gold exports alone were valued at USD 2.86 billion in 2022/2023, contributing significantly to foreign exchange earnings.
• Diverse Mineral Portfolio: Tanzania mines over 40 types of minerals, including diamonds, tanzanite (unique to Tanzania), coal, copper, nickel, lithium, graphite, and rare earth elements. Notable increases in coal exports (from USD 23.2 million to USD 228.6 million year-on-year) and diamond exports (from USD 9.6 million to USD 66.9 million) have bolstered the sector.
• Policy Reforms: Government initiatives under President Samia Suluhu Hassan, including enhanced regulatory frameworks, gemstone auctions, and local mineral markets, have increased the sector’s GDP contribution from 7.2% in 2021 to 10.1% in 2024, surpassing the 2026 target of 10%.
• Investment and Infrastructure: Investments in mining, such as deals with Australian companies worth USD 3.15 billion for rare earths and graphite, and Tesla’s contract for anode active material, have boosted output.

Tanzania’s Position in Africa

Tanzania’s mining GDP of 2,317,959 TZS million (approx. 0.923 billion USD) in Q4 2024 places it among the top contributors to mining GDP in Africa, though direct comparisons are challenging due to varying currencies and reporting periods. Below is a comparative analysis with key African countries based on the provided data (converted to USD where possible for consistency, using approximate exchange rates as of May 2025):

• Nigeria: 1,039,318 NGN million (approx. 0.625 billion USD, at 1,665 NGN/USD). Despite Nigeria’s larger overall economy, its mining GDP is lower than Tanzania’s in USD terms, reflecting Tanzania’s stronger focus on mining.
• South Africa: 203,866 ZAR million (approx. 11.5 billion USD, at 17.7 ZAR/USD). South Africa, Africa’s top gold producer, significantly outpaces Tanzania due to its larger and more diversified mining sector (gold, platinum, coal).
• Egypt: 252,968 EGP million (approx. 5.1 billion USD, at 49.5 EGP/USD). Egypt’s mining sector, driven by phosphate and gold, exceeds Tanzania’s in USD terms but is less dominant in GDP share.
• Ghana: 6,579 GHS million (approx. 0.446 billion USD, at 14.75 GHS/USD). Ghana, Africa’s third-largest gold producer, has a lower mining GDP than Tanzania, highlighting Tanzania’s competitive position.
• Guinea: 42,871 GNF billion (approx. 4.9 billion USD, at 8,750 GNF/USD, Dec 2023 data). Guinea’s bauxite-driven mining sector surpasses Tanzania in value, but its data is outdated.
• Zambia: 4,264 ZMW million (approx. 0.165 billion USD, at 25.8 ZMW/USD). Zambia’s copper-focused mining sector contributes less to GDP than Tanzania’s in absolute terms.

Ranking in Africa: Tanzania ranks among the top five African countries in mining GDP contribution, likely behind South Africa, Egypt, and Guinea, but ahead of Nigeria, Ghana, and Zambia in USD terms. Its 10.1% GDP share from mining in 2024 is notably high, compared to South Africa (approx. 7–8%) and Nigeria (less than 1%), underscoring mining’s critical role in Tanzania’s economy.

Tanzania’s Position in East Africa

In East Africa, Tanzania is a leader in mining GDP, surpassing regional peers:

• Kenya: 24,462 KES million (approx. 0.189 billion USD, at 129 KES/USD). Kenya’s mining sector is significantly smaller, focusing on soda ash and small-scale gold mining.
• Uganda: 835 UGX billion (approx. 0.226 billion USD, at 3,700 UGX/USD). Uganda’s mining sector, primarily artisanal gold and limestone, is far less developed than Tanzania’s.
• Mozambique: 34,809 MZN million (approx. 0.545 billion USD, at 63.9 MZN/USD). Mozambique’s mining GDP, driven by coal and gas, is lower than Tanzania’s, despite its larger natural gas potential.
• Rwanda: 50 RWF billion (approx. 0.037 billion USD, at 1,350 RWF/USD). Rwanda’s mining sector (tin, tungsten) is minimal compared to Tanzania’s.

East African Ranking: Tanzania is the top contributor to mining GDP in East Africa in Q4 2024, with a value nearly double that of Mozambique, the next closest competitor. Its 10.1% GDP share from mining far exceeds regional averages, where mining typically contributes 1–5% to GDP in countries like Kenya and Uganda. Tanzania’s leadership is further reinforced by its role in regional coal mining and its hosting of the East Africa Crude Oil Pipeline, enhancing its extractive sector prominence.

Additional Context and Figures

• Tax Revenue: Mining tax revenue in Tanzania surged by 20.7% to TZS 753.82 billion (approx. USD 0.3 billion) in 2023/2024, with TZS 312.75 billion collected by October 2024 toward a TZS 1 trillion target for 2024/2025. This reflects improved regulatory enforcement and local content policies.
• Employment: The sector employed 310,000 Tanzanians in 2020 and created 19,356 jobs by March 2024 (97% for Tanzanians), boosting economic inclusivity.
• Export Earnings: Mineral exports reached USD 3.6 billion in 2020, with gold dominating, and total exports (including minerals) hit USD 16.1 billion in 2024, up 15.1% year-on-year.
• Future Potential: Tanzania’s focus on critical minerals (lithium, nickel, graphite) and projects like the Likong’o-Mchinga LNG plant (valued at USD 30 billion) position it for sustained growth.

Conclusion

Tanzania’s mining GDP of 2,317,959 TZS million in Q4 2024 underscores its robust growth, driven by gold, gemstones, and strategic reforms. In Africa, it ranks among the top five mining economies, behind South Africa, Egypt, and Guinea, but ahead of Nigeria and Ghana. In East Africa, Tanzania is the undisputed leader, with a mining GDP nearly double that of Mozambique and significantly higher than Kenya, Uganda, and Rwanda. Its 10.1% GDP contribution from mining in 2024, coupled with rising tax revenues and export earnings, cements its position as a regional powerhouse, with potential for further growth in critical minerals and natural gas.

"Key Figures: Tanzania’s Mining Boom and Economic Development, 2008–2024"

Tanzania Metrics

Notes

• Exchange Rates (Approx., May 2025): TZS/USD = 2,510; ZAR/USD = 17.7; EGP/USD = 49.5; NGN/USD = 1,665; GHS/USD = 14.75; MZN/USD = 63.9; KES/USD = 129; UGX/USD = 3,700; RWF/USD = 1,350; ZMW/USD = 25.8.
• Tanzania’s Position: Ranks ~4th in Africa (behind South Africa, Egypt, Guinea); 1st in East Africa (ahead of Mozambique, Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda).
• Data Source: National Bureau of Statistics (Tanzania) for Tanzania data; other countries’ figures from provided dataset.

Government Securities and Interbank Cash Markets Thrive

In March 2025, Tanzania’s financial markets demonstrated robust investor confidence and liquidity strength, as shown by the performance of the government securities and interbank cash markets. The Bank of Tanzania conducted two Treasury bill auctions with a combined offer of TZS 218 billion, attracting bids worth TZS 662.5 billion, more than 3 times the offer, indicating high demand. The weighted average yield for T-bills dropped from 11.93% in February 2025 to 10.10%, reflecting investor optimism and lower inflation expectations. Similarly, the Treasury bond market saw strong participation, with 5-year and 15-year bonds oversubscribed, receiving TZS 200.5 billion and TZS 267.7 billion in bids respectively. Meanwhile, the Interbank Cash Market (IBCM) recorded total transactions of TZS 1,757.7 billion, dominated by 7-day maturities, with the average interbank rate slightly increasing to 8.12% from 8.06% in February. These developments underline a stable and active financial market environment supporting fiscal and monetary policy objectives in 2025.

1. Government Securities Market

Treasury Bills (T-Bills)

• In March 2025, the Bank of Tanzania conducted two T-bill auctions, each with a tender size of TZS 109 billion.
• These auctions were heavily oversubscribed, receiving bids totaling TZS 662.5 billion.
• Out of these, TZS 210.8 billion were accepted.
• The weighted average yield (WAY) dropped from 11.93% (Feb 2025) to 10.10% (Mar 2025), reflecting increased investor demand.

Treasury Bonds

• The Bank also held auctions for:
  • 5-year bond: Tender size TZS 77.8 billion → received TZS 200.5 billion in bids → TZS 151.6 billion accepted.
  • 15-year bond: Tender size TZS 148.4 billion → received TZS 267.7 billion in bids → TZS 146.5 billion accepted.
• The yield to maturity:
  • 5-year bond: Increased to 13.14%.
  • 15-year bond: Slightly decreased to 14.63%.

Implication: High demand for government securities shows strong investor confidence and liquidity in the market.

2. Interbank Cash Market (IBCM)

• The IBCM remained vibrant and active in facilitating short-term liquidity among banks.
• Total transactions in March 2025 amounted to TZS 1,757.7 billion, down from TZS 1,990.1 billion in February.
• The 7-day maturity transactions were dominant, making up 50.9% of all trades.
• Overnight transactions accounted for 7.3%.
• The overall interbank cash market interest rate slightly increased to 8.12% from 8.06% in February 2025.

Implication: The slight rate increase and high transaction volumes reflect active liquidity management by banks despite some market segmentation.

Summary Table

The data from the Government Securities Market and the Interbank Cash Market (IBCM) in Tanzania for March 2025 tells us several key things about the financial market conditions and investor behavior:

1. High Investor Confidence and Liquidity in the Market

• Oversubscription of Treasury bill and bond auctions (bids far exceeded offers) shows:
  • Strong investor demand for government securities.
  • Abundant liquidity in the financial system—investors, especially banks and pension funds, have cash to invest.
• Falling T-bill yields from 11.93% to 10.10% signal:
  • Investors are willing to accept lower returns, indicating confidence in macroeconomic stability and low inflation expectations.

2. Balanced Government Financing Strategy

• The government is actively using the domestic financial market to fund its budget through:
  • T-bills (short-term needs).
  • Bonds (medium to long-term financing).
• This approach helps reduce reliance on external debt and manage domestic borrowing costs.

3. Active Interbank Liquidity Management

• The IBCM transacted TZS 1.76 trillion, although slightly lower than the previous month.
• The interbank rate slightly rose to 8.12%, which still remains within the Bank of Tanzania’s policy corridor (centered around the 6% CBR ±2%).
• This suggests:
  • Banks are effectively managing short-term liquidity needs.
  • The market remains stable and well-functioning, with no significant liquidity stress.

4. Slight Yield Adjustments Reflect Market Dynamics

• The increase in 5-year bond yield (13.14%) and slight drop in 15-year yield (14.63%) show:
  • Investors may perceive more risk or uncertainty in the medium term.
  • But still maintain confidence in long-term fiscal management and economic outlook.

In Simple Terms:

• Investors trust the government and are keen to lend it money.
• The financial system is liquid and active.
• The central bank is maintaining a stable monetary environment.
• Tanzania’s domestic market is maturing as a reliable source of financing for the government.

Between 2010 and 2019, Tanzania recorded an impressive average real GDP growth rate of 6.3%, positioning it among Africa’s top five fastest-growing economies—surpassing regional peers such as Kenya (5.9%), Uganda (5.4%), and Ghana (6.2%), and trailing only behind Ethiopia (9.4%), Rwanda (7.8%), and Côte d’Ivoire (7.5%). Looking ahead, Tanzania is projected to maintain a strong growth trajectory with an average GDP growth rate of 5.9% from 2025 to 2027, slightly below its historical performance but ahead of several large economies, including Nigeria (3.8%) and South Africa (1.8%). While not leading the continent, Tanzania remains a key growth driver in East Africa, alongside Rwanda (8.5%), Uganda (6.2%), and Zambia (6.5%), reflecting continued resilience and investment momentum in sectors like construction, services, and agriculture.

Tanzania’s Position

• 2010–2019 average growth: 6.3%, among the top 5 in Africa.
• 2025–2027 average projection: 5.9%, maintaining a strong position, but slightly below past performance.
• Trajectory: Increasing growth trend:
  • 2023: 5.1%
  • 2024e: 5.5%
  • 2025f: 5.7%
  • 2026f: 5.9%
  • 2027f: 6.1%​

Regional Context

• Tanzania is one of the key drivers of growth in the East African Community alongside Kenya, Uganda, and Rwanda.
• East Africa is projected to remain the fastest-growing subregion, with average growth above 6.8% in 2026–27

Top Performers: Real GDP Growth (2010–2019)

Top Projected Performers: Real GDP Growth (2025–2027 average)

The real GDP growth data from 2010 to 2027 for Tanzania, as detailed in the Africa’s Pulse (Spring 2025), reveals the following key insights when comparing Tanzania to other African countries

1. Strong Historical Performance (2010–2019)

• Tanzania averaged 6.3% GDP growth, ranking it among the top 5 fastest-growing economies in Africa during that period.
• It outperformed Kenya (5.9%), Ghana (6.2%), Senegal (5.7%), and Uganda (5.4%), showing robust and consistent economic expansion driven by public investment, services, and agriculture.
• Only Ethiopia (9.4%), Rwanda (7.8%), and Côte d’Ivoire (7.5%) performed better during this decade.

Interpretation: Tanzania was one of the most stable and rapidly growing economies in Sub-Saharan Africa during the 2010s.

2. Projected Growth (2025–2027): Slightly Below the Top Tier

• While still strong, Tanzania’s projected growth places it just below the top-tier performers.
• Tanzania remains ahead of larger economies like Kenya, Nigeria, and South Africa, which are forecast to grow more slowly due to structural and fiscal challenges.

Interpretation: Tanzania will maintain steady, healthy growth but may not lead the continent as before unless it enhances reforms or investment levels like Rwanda or Ethiopia.

3. East African Regional Context

• Tanzania, Rwanda, Uganda, and Kenya are driving East Africa’s performance.
• Among these, Rwanda leads, followed by Uganda, then Tanzania, and finally Kenya.
• Tanzania is expected to grow at or above 5.9%, while Kenya is forecast to grow below 5.5%, giving Tanzania a relative advantage.

 Interpretation: Tanzania is a regional growth leader, though it is slightly behind Rwanda and Uganda in projected growth pace.

Overall Message for Tanzania

• Historically strong and steady economic performer.
• Consistently among the fastest-growing economies in Africa from 2010–2027.
• Faces competition from smaller but faster-growing economies (e.g., Rwanda, Senegal, Ethiopia).
• To remain competitive, Tanzania may need to boost productivity, investment, and governance reforms.

Tanzania has made significant progress in reducing inflation over the past decade. From an average annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) growth rate of 7.1% during 2010–2019, the country is projected to achieve a much lower and more stable rate of 4.0% over 2025–2027. This improvement reflects effective monetary and fiscal management, helping Tanzania transition into the group of low-inflation economies in Sub-Saharan Africa. For context, inflation is projected to remain high in countries like Nigeria (10%+), Ghana (8.0%), and Zambia (8.0%), while Tanzania outperforms even some of its regional peers, including Uganda (5.0%) and Kenya (5.5%). From 4.4% in 2022, CPI in Tanzania declined to 3.1% in 2024, and is expected to stabilize around 4.0% by 2027, underscoring its growing macroeconomic resilience and investor appeal.

Tanzania is expected to maintain low and stable inflation between 3.1% and 4.0% from 2024 to 2027, indicating macroeconomic stability and strong monetary policy performance​.

Tanzania’s Position and Implications

• Historically (2010–2019), Tanzania had moderately high inflation (7.1%).
• In the forecast period (2025–2027), inflation is projected to stabilize around 4.0%, which is well below the regional average and better than many high-inflation economies.
• Compared to regional peers:
  • Lower than Uganda (5.0%)
  • Lower than Zambia (8.0%)
  • Lower than South Africa (4.6%)
  • Comparable to Rwanda (4.3%)

Top African Countries by CPI Annual Change (Inflation Rate)

Highest Inflation Countries (2010–2019 average)

These countries faced persistent inflationary pressures over the decade:

Tanzania recorded an average annual CPI of 7.1%, slightly higher than Uganda (6.2%) and comparable to Zambia (8.8%). This places Tanzania among the moderately high-inflation economies in Sub-Saharan Africa during the 2010s.

CPI Trends and Projections (2022–2027)

Tanzania's annual CPI (inflation) showed the following trend:

Comparison with other notable countries (2027 projections)

Tanzania is transitioning from a moderately high inflation environment to a low and stable inflation economy, which enhances its macroeconomic credibility, investment attractiveness, and household purchasing power.

1. Tanzania Has Tamed Inflation Over Time

• From 2010 to 2019, Tanzania experienced moderately high inflation, averaging 7.1% annually.
• This level was higher than Uganda (6.2%) and much higher than Benin or Côte d’Ivoire (often under 3%), reflecting structural challenges like food price volatility, energy costs, and monetary expansion.

2. A Clear Downward Trend in Inflation

• Tanzania has achieved significant inflation reduction:
  • 2022: 4.4%
  • 2023: 3.8%
  • 2024e: 3.1%
  • 2025f–2027f: Stabilizing at ~4.0%
• This puts Tanzania in the low-inflation group in Sub-Saharan Africa, joining countries like Rwanda (4.3%) and Benin (1.5%).

3. Tanzania Performs Better Than Many Peers

• In 2027, Tanzania’s CPI of 4.0% will be:
  • Lower than Nigeria (10%+), Ghana (8.0%), and Zambia (8.0%)
  • Lower than regional average, with many countries still facing double-digit inflation
• This shows Tanzania’s strong monetary policy and price stability, even as others still struggle with inflationary pressures.

💡 What It Tells Us

• Tanzania has made real progress in macroeconomic management.
• It is now one of the more stable economies in East and Sub-Saharan Africa in terms of inflation, which:
  • Supports consumer purchasing power
  • Encourages investment
  • Enables predictable economic planning

In short, Tanzania has moved from a high-inflation past to a low-inflation future, showing maturity in economic policy and resilience compared to many of its African peers.

Between 2020 and 2024, Tanzania experienced a remarkable surge in investment activities, signaling growing confidence in the country's economic prospects. The number of projects registered by the Tanzania Investment Centre (TIC) increased from 207 in 2020 to 901 in 2024 — a 335% growth over five years. At the same time, total capital investment rose sharply from $1.1 billion to $9.3 billion, marking a 745% increase. Job creation linked to these projects also soared by 1,121%, with employment opportunities growing from 17,385 in 2020 to 212,293 in 2024. This rapid expansion reflects both domestic and foreign investor confidence, with domestic projects growing by 402%, foreign projects by 399%, and joint ventures by 184%. Key sectors like manufacturing, agriculture, commercial real estate, transportation, and telecommunications attracted the largest share of capital and created substantial jobs, demonstrating Tanzania’s ongoing transformation into a vibrant investment hub.

Key Figures:

• Total Projects: Increased from 207 (2020) to 901 (2024) — +335% growth.
• Domestic Projects: Increased from 64 (2020) to 321 (2024) — +402% growth.
• Foreign Projects: Increased from 81 (2020) to 404 (2024) — +399% growth.
• Joint Venture Projects: Increased from 62 (2020) to 176 (2024) — +184% growth.
• Capital Investment: Rose from $1.1 billion (2020) to $9.3 billion (2024) — +745% growth.
• Jobs Created: Rose from 17,385 (2020) to 212,293 (2024) — +1,121% growth.
• Top Investment Sectors by Capital (2024): Manufacturing ($2.19 billion), Agriculture ($1.89 billion), Commercial Buildings ($788.86 million).
• Top Sources of FDI (2024): China ($1.05 billion), Vietnam ($783.4 million), Mauritius ($773.96 million).
• Top Region by Investment (2024): Dar es Salaam with $4.44 billion across 356 projects and 107,962 jobs.

Project Registration Trends (2020-2024)

Project Ownership in 2024

• Foreign ownership: 44.8% (compared to 40.7% in 2023)
• Joint ventures: 19.6% (compared to 24.7% in 2023)
• Domestic ownership: 35.6% (compared to 34.6% in 2023)

Sectoral Analysis of Projects (January-December 2024)

Expansion Projects (January-December 2024)

Total expansion projects: 51 projects across various sectors.

Sectors by Project Count

Total projects: 901 The document doesn't provide the exact number for each sector, but visually it appears manufacturing has the highest number of projects, followed by commercial buildings and services.

Jobs Created by Sector (January-December 2024)

Total jobs: 212,293 Top sectors for job creation:

1. Commercial Building: approximately 125,760 jobs
2. Manufacturing: approximately 45,883 jobs
3. Economic Infrastructure: approximately 18,780 jobs
4. Transportation: approximately 7,475 jobs
5. Tourism: approximately 6,949 jobs

Capital Investment by Sector (January-December 2024)

Total investment: $9.3 billion Top sectors receiving investment:

1. Manufacturing: approximately $2.19 billion
2. Agriculture: approximately $1.89 billion
3. Commercial Building: approximately $788.86 million
4. Transportation: approximately $706.39 million
5. Telecommunication: approximately $651.92 million

Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)

Top 5 Sources of FDI in 2024

1. China: $1,053.46 million
2. Vietnam: $783.4 million
3. Mauritius: $773.96 million
4. UAE: $702.52 million
5. United Kingdom: $394.30 million

Top 5 Sources of FDI in 2023

1. China: $2,111.41 million
2. India: $190.53 million
3. Singapore: $143.29 million
4. Hong Kong: $135 million
5. Germany: $131.25 million

Permits, Licenses and Approvals (2024 vs 2023)

The document shows a significant increase in permits, licenses, and approvals issued in 2024 compared to 2023, though the exact numbers aren't clearly visible in the document. The figure shows increases across multiple institutions including Immigration (residence permits), Labor Office (work permits), TRA (approved lists of exemptions), NIDA (legal identity card/NIN), TIC (certificate of incentives), and Ministry of Lands (derivative rights).

Top 10 Regional Distribution (by Capital Investment)

1. Dar es Salaam: 356 projects, 107,962 jobs, $4,440.97 million capital
2. Pwani: 166 projects, 49,784 jobs, $1,243.87 million capital
3. Ruvuma: 11 projects, 5,735 jobs, $597.64 million capital
4. Mwanza: 37 projects, 4,395 jobs, $581.11 million capital
5. Morogoro: 22 projects, 11,556 jobs, $446.17 million capital
6. Shinyanga: 16 projects, 1,121 jobs, $415.21 million capital
7. Arusha: 64 projects, 6,657 jobs, $213.06 million capital
8. Dodoma: 47 projects, 6,540 jobs, $182.36 million capital
9. Kigoma: 8 projects, 774 jobs, $155.62 million capital
10. Tanga: 23 projects, 1,315 jobs, $137.66 million capital

This analysis shows Tanzania's continued growth in investment across various sectors and regions, with significant increases in both domestic and foreign investments over the five-year period.

Trend Analysis of TIC Investment Projects (2020–2024):

1. Massive Growth in Investment Activity

• Project registrations rose 335% (from 207 to 901 projects).
• Strong surges in 2023 (+79%) and 2024 (+71%) especially indicate a sharp acceleration in interest.
• This suggests that Tanzania became a significantly more attractive investment destination over this period — possibly due to government reforms, better investment climate, infrastructure development, or global shifts.

2. Balanced Growth Between Domestic and Foreign Investments

• Domestic projects grew 402%, while foreign projects grew 399%.
• This shows that local investors are increasingly active, not just foreign investors — a positive signal of internal economic confidence and private sector development.

3. Joint Ventures Growing, But More Slowly

• Joint ventures increased 184%, slower compared to domestic and foreign projects.
• This may suggest a need to further encourage partnerships between Tanzanian and foreign investors.

4. Exceptional Job Creation

• Jobs created rose from 17,385 in 2020 to 212,293 in 2024 — a 1,121% increase.
• Shows investment projects are not just rising numerically, but also becoming larger and more labor-intensive, especially in sectors like commercial building and manufacturing.

5. Sharp Increase in Capital Investment

• Capital investment jumped from $1.1 billion to $9.3 billion (+745%).
• This signals larger-scale projects, and higher-value industries being targeted (not just quantity of projects but also quality/size).

6. Sectoral Insights

• Manufacturing is the top sector by project count and by capital investment ($2.19 billion).
• Commercial building dominates in job creation (125,760 jobs) but not necessarily in capital.
• Agriculture attracted the second-highest investment ($1.89 billion), reflecting efforts to modernize and commercialize the sector.
• Transportation and Telecommunications are emerging sectors — critical for logistics and digital economy growth.

7. Changes in Project Ownership Structure

• Foreign ownership increased slightly from 40.7% (2023) to 44.8% (2024).
• Domestic ownership also rose slightly, while joint ventures declined, suggesting investors may increasingly prefer to go solo rather than partner.

8. Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) Dynamics

• China remains the leading source of FDI in 2023 and 2024, though its FDI declined from $2.1 billion (2023) to $1.05 billion (2024).
• New strong entries in 2024 include Vietnam, Mauritius, and UAE — indicating diversification of Tanzania’s FDI sources.
• Shows shifting global investment patterns towards Tanzania.

9. Administrative Improvements

• A significant increase in permits, licenses, and approvals in 2024 suggests:
  • Greater activity and support from regulatory agencies.
  • Possibly better ease of doing business.
  • Tanzania’s institutions are responding to investment growth with better service delivery.

10. Regional Distribution

• Dar es Salaam and Pwani regions dominate in project number, job creation, and capital — but other regions like Ruvuma and Mwanza also attract significant investments.
• This suggests some beginning of investment decentralization, though still heavily urban/concentrated.

In Summary:

• Tanzania’s investment climate significantly improved from 2020–2024, characterized by:
  • Higher number, size, and diversity of projects.
  • Increased domestic investor participation.
  • Massive job creation.
  • Sectoral diversification.
  • Geographic spreading (still early but visible).
• Policy reforms, institutional strengthening, infrastructure improvements, and targeted promotion efforts likely played key roles.

Tanzania Investment Centre - Key Figures 2020-2024

Project Ownership Distribution (%)

Top 5 Sectors by Job Creation (2024)

Top 5 Sectors by Capital Investment (2024)

Top 5 Sources of FDI

Top 10 Regional Distribution (2024)

Macroeconomic Indicators (2024)

Momentum for Growth Amid Stability

Tanzania enters 2025/2026 with strong economic momentum, driven by projected GDP growth of 6.1% in 2025 and 6.4% in 2026, marking steady progress from 5.9% in 2024. Inflation remains contained at 3.2%–3.5%, ensuring price stability for consumers and businesses. Dynamic sectors such as ICT (13.5% growth by 2026), energy (12.0%), and mining (9.3%) are fueling economic transformation, while private sector credit is expanding robustly at over 20% annually. With public debt stabilized at around 46.5% of GDP and strong revenue performance (100%+ of targets), Tanzania is well-positioned for inclusive growth and investment expansion in key industries.

Tanzania Business Report 2025: Growth, Stability & Sectoral Transformation

Tanzania's economy in 2025 is poised on solid footing, building on the steady momentum of previous years. With consistent policy direction and resilience across sectors, the country presents a compelling picture for investors, analysts, and business stakeholders.

Macroeconomic Highlights (2020–2024)

• Real GDP Growth climbed from 4.5% in 2020 to 5.9% in 2024, indicating a gradual post-pandemic recovery and strong domestic activity.
• Headline Inflation remained moderate, ending 2024 at 3.0%, reinforcing price stability.
• The Exchange Rate (TZS/USD) depreciated slightly from 2,323 (2022) to 2,585 by Dec 2024, reflecting manageable currency pressures.
• Public Debt rose to ~46.3% of GDP in nominal terms but remains sustainable with a PV (Present Value) ratio of 41.1%.

Sectoral Performance (Growth %)

Top Performers: ICT, Energy, and Mining sectors drove 2024 growth, with ICT growing at a remarkable 12.5% and Energy at 11.0%, bolstered by digital transformation and energy infrastructure investments.

Trade Dynamics

• Exports of Goods & Services rebounded strongly in 2023 (+39.0%) but contracted -1.5% in 2024.
• Imports continued a positive trend, expanding by 6.4% in 2024, suggesting increased domestic demand.

Banking & Credit Sector

• Commercial Bank Deposits rose 15.6%, indicating confidence in the financial system.
• Lending Growth improved to 15.4%, with Private Sector Credit jumping 21.2%, reflecting a pro-business credit environment.

Government Fiscal Operations

Strong revenue collection (99.5% of target) and controlled deficit spending reflect fiscal discipline amid rising development investment.

Inflation Breakdown

The inflation structure indicates broad price stability, particularly in essential sectors.

Outlook

Tanzania heads into 2025 with strong momentum in ICT, energy, and industrial growth. Stable inflation, a healthy banking sector, and expanding infrastructure projects offer a conducive environment for private investment and business expansion.

📊 “Tanzania continues to set the pace in East Africa for diversified, resilient economic growth.”

Forecast for Tanzania for the year 2025/2026: Macroeconomic indicators, sectoral performance, trade, banking, fiscal operations, and inflation.

Macroeconomic Forecast: Tanzania (2025–2026)

Sectoral Growth Forecast (% Change)

Trade Forecast (% Change)

Banking & Credit Forecast (% Growth)

Government Fiscal Operations (% Change)

Inflation Breakdown (% Change)

Stability, Growth & Sectoral Momentum

Tanzania is heading into 2025/2026 with strong and balanced growth, supported by moderate inflation, stable fiscal management, and dynamic performance across key economic sectors.

Macroeconomic Outlook

• GDP growth is projected to accelerate to 6.1% in 2025 and 6.4% in 2026, indicating a robust economic recovery driven by infrastructure investments, digital economy growth, and regional trade.
• Inflation remains under control (around 3.2%–3.5%), which supports consumer purchasing power and business planning.
• The exchange rate will depreciate slowly, suggesting external stability but continued pressure from imports and global currency trends.
• Public debt remains sustainable, with only slight increases, showing effective debt management and continued investor confidence.

Sectoral Trends

• Top performing sectors will be:
  • ICT & Digital Economy: Growth will hit 13.5% in 2026, fueled by digital infrastructure, mobile usage, and e-services.
  • Energy Sector: Rapid growth (12% by 2026) shows Tanzania’s push in electricity and gas infrastructure.
  • Mining and Manufacturing: Ongoing reforms and mineral demand will sustain strong growth above 9% and 5.9% respectively.
• Agriculture, though steady, is growing slower — indicating the need for modernization and value chain development.
• Tourism is on the rebound, projected to reach 7% growth, reflecting increased travel and hospitality recovery.

Trade Dynamics

• Exports are projected to recover strongly (+6.0% in 2025 and +8.5% in 2026) after the 2024 dip — thanks to minerals, agriculture, and tourism.
• Imports will continue rising moderately, reflecting strong domestic demand for capital goods, industrial inputs, and consumer goods.

Financial Sector Confidence

• Commercial bank deposits and lending remain strong, growing above 14% annually, showing business confidence and expanding access to finance.
• Private sector credit growth above 20% indicates strong investment appetite and supportive banking environment.

Fiscal Responsibility

• The government will maintain a manageable budget deficit (~2% of GDP) while increasing both revenue and development spending.
• Grants are declining (only ~1% of revenue by 2026), signaling greater self-reliance in public finances.

Cost of Living

• Inflation is mild across food, housing, and transport — a positive sign for households and business cost planning.

Bottom Line

Tanzania in 2025/2026 is set for strong, inclusive, and sustainable growth, with opportunities in:

• Digital economy
• Energy infrastructure
• Export diversification
• Tourism revival
• Financial sector expansion

Introduction

In 2025,U.S. President Donald Trump’s proposed tariff hikes—including a staggering increase from 34% to 145% on Chinese imports and a flat 10% tariff on key trade partners such as the European Union (18.5% of U.S. imports), Japan (4.5%), Vietnam (4.2%), and India (2.7%)—have reignited fears of a global trade war. These tariffs affect over 60% of U.S. imports, threatening to reduce global trade growth by up to 1.5 percentage points and wipe out US$300–500 billion in trade value in 2025.

While the intention is to protect American industries, the ripple effects are expected to disrupt global supply chains, increase inflation in the U.S., and reduce market access for exporters across developing countries. Africa, with average import tariffs around 8%, may experience a 1–2% decline in export revenue, particularly in agriculture and textiles. In East Africa, countries like Kenya, Ethiopia, and Tanzania, which rely on apparel and commodity exports, face uncertain prospects as U.S. demand contracts and global trade flows reorient. For Tanzania, while direct U.S. exposure is limited, the indirect effects—such as reduced demand for coffee, tobacco, and minerals—may lead to a 0.3–0.5% drop in GDP growth and 1–2% export revenue loss.

March 2025 Global Trade Update from UNCTAD, with analysis at the global, Africa-wide, East Africa, and Tanzania levels, including relevant figures.

🌍 Global

Trade Growth & Trends (2024–2025)

• Global trade reached US$33 trillion in 2024:
  • +3.7% growth overall.
  • +2% goods trade, +9% services trade.
  • Trade expanded by US$1.2 trillion: goods contributed US$500B, services US$700B.

Tariff Trends

• Agriculture: Highest average tariffs—~20% under MFN.
• Manufacturing: Moderate tariffs—~10% for 30% of trade; preferences apply to 70%.
• Raw materials: Over 80% duty-free; tariffs on the rest average 3.5%.

Key Issues

• Tariff escalation hinders value-added exports from developing countries.
• Tariff peaks (15%+) are common in sensitive sectors like agriculture and apparel.
• Protectionism and geoeconomic tensions are rising, especially between major economies (e.g., US-China).

🌍 Africa

Tariff Trends

• Africa imposes high tariffs: average ~8% on imports.
• African exports face lower tariffs in developed countries due to preferences.
• Intra-African trade benefits from 4.6% lower tariffs (regional integration).
• High tariffs remain in agriculture and manufacturing, especially on processed goods (e.g., food, apparel).

Trade Growth

• Africa’s intra-regional trade fell by 4% in Q4 2024, despite global growth.
• Africa’s export tariffs dropped slightly from 8.7% (2012) to 8.1% (2023), but still among the highest globally.

Challenges

• High tariffs and tariff escalation limit industrialization and competitiveness.
• Exports still centered around natural resources with low value addition.

🌍 East Africa

East Africa isn't isolated in most figures but falls under Africa or Rest of Asia depending on the context. However, based on patterns:

Trade Position

• East Africa faces:
  • High import tariffs (close to 8%),
  • Strong agriculture protection,
  • Less exposure to global manufacturing exports due to tariff escalation.
• Benefits from regional agreements (e.g., AfCFTA, EAC customs union).

Key Challenges

• Value addition in sectors like coffee, tea, textiles is limited due to high tariffs on processed goods.
• Still heavily reliant on exports of raw or semi-processed goods.

Tanzania-Specific Insights

Tanzania isn’t specifically mentioned in the report, but here are contextual implications:

Tariffs & Trade Policy

• Tanzania, as an EAC member, applies common external tariffs.
• Relies on tariffs for 10–30% of public revenue, similar to other developing countries.
• High tariffs on finished goods discourage local value addition.
• Opportunities lie in negotiating better access for processed exports (e.g., cotton textiles, coffee, cashew products).

Impacts

• Tariff escalation affects Tanzania’s ambition to industrialize.
• Agriculture and textiles—sectors where Tanzania has competitive potential—face tariff peaks in export markets.
• Preferential trade agreements (e.g., AGOA, EU GSP) offer limited but valuable export access.

Strategic Focus Areas

• Push for regional value chains (in agriculture, minerals).
• Improve trade facilitation and infrastructure to lower non-tariff barriers.
• Leverage AfCFTA to expand intra-African trade and reduce reliance on global markets with higher tariffs.

📊 Key Figures Table

United States' trade dynamics with other countries in the March 2025 UNCTAD Global Trade Update, including figures:

United States Trade Overview (2024–Q4 2024)

📦 Goods Trade

• Imports (Q4 2024): +6% annually, +1% quarterly
• Exports (Q4 2024): +2% annually, but -1% quarterly

📈 Services Trade

• Imports (Q4 2024): +8% annually, +4% quarterly
• Exports (Q4 2024): +8% annually, +1% quarterly

⚖️ Trade Balance (Goods)

• The U.S. continues to run the largest global trade deficit, reaching -US$355 billion with China alone in 2024.
• The deficit widened due to strong U.S. domestic demand and global supply chain sourcing.

🔁 Major U.S. Bilateral Trade Relationships (Goods, 2024)

These deficits reflect the U.S. importing more than exporting across these countries, especially in electronics, machinery, apparel, and consumer goods.

🔄 Trade Dependence Patterns (2024 Trends)

• U.S. dependence increased on:
  • Malaysia (+1.8%)
  • Viet Nam (+1.8%)
  • Taiwan Province of China (+1.5%)
• U.S. dependence decreased on:
  • China (–0.3%)
  • European Union (–0.2%)

👉 This shift reflects supply chain diversification (friendshoring/nearshoring), aiming to reduce reliance on China while increasing ties with ASEAN countries.

📉 Trade Risks for the U.S. (2025 Outlook)

• Rising geopolitical tensions and tariff increases, especially toward China.
• Trade policy shifts may cause:
  • Frontloading of shipments (before new tariffs).
  • Retaliatory tariffs by partners.
  • Disruptions in value chains for electronics, metals, and autos.

📊 Sector-Specific Trade Involvement

U.S. trade deficits are high in:

• Electronics & machinery
• Textiles & apparel
• Motor vehicles

Exports are strong in:

• Agricultural goods
• Aerospace
• Services (finance, ICT, intellectual property)

The proposed tariff hikes by Donald Trump—especially the massive increase on Chinese imports and widespread 10% blanket tariffs—would have major global economic consequences. What these tariffs mean, and how they could impact the global economy, trade flows, and developing countries:

📊 Tariff Hike Summary (as proposed)

Global Economic Effects of These Tariff Changes

1. 🧨 China: Shockwaves from 145% Tariff

• A tariff jump from 34% to 145% is trade war escalation.
• China’s export-heavy economy would face a massive revenue hit, especially in electronics, machinery, and consumer goods.
• Could trigger retaliatory tariffs from China, disrupting U.S. firms reliant on Chinese inputs.
• Major global value chains (e.g. Apple, auto, semiconductors) would be destabilized.
• Result: Global manufacturing slowdown, inflationary pressures in the U.S., and disruptions across Asia.

2. 🔄 Redirection of Trade (Global Supply Chains)

• With China hit hard, Southeast Asia (Vietnam, Malaysia, Thailand) may benefit as alternative suppliers—but:
  • They too face 10% tariffs, reducing their price advantage.
  • Smaller economies may struggle to scale fast enough, leading to supply bottlenecks.
• U.S. companies might reshore (bring back manufacturing), but this raises production costs.

3. 💰 Consumer Inflation in the U.S.

• Higher tariffs = higher import prices.
• U.S. businesses and consumers may face higher costs, especially in:
  • Electronics
  • Household goods
  • Clothing
• May reverse disinflation trends seen in 2024–Q1 2025.

4. 📉 Global Trade Contraction

• Based on 2024 trade data, global trade growth was already decelerating in Q4.
• New tariffs could cut global trade growth by up to 1–1.5 percentage points in 2025.
• UNCTAD warned about geoeconomic fragmentation—this could worsen it sharply.

5. 🌍 Developing Countries at Risk

• Countries like Vietnam, India, Malaysia, and Thailand depend on exports to the U.S.
• Even though tariffs are lower than for China, they still lose competitiveness.
• Africa and Latin America may not benefit much due to:
  • Low integration in electronics/GVCs
  • High internal trade barriers

6. 💼 Business Uncertainty & Investment Drops

• Firms facing sudden 10–100%+ tariff increases may delay:
  • Expansion
  • Investment in new plants/supply chains
• This slows global FDI flows, especially in emerging markets.

Estimated Sectoral Impacts

Conclusion: Likely Global Effects

Likely effects of Trump’s proposed tariff increases—particularly the massive 145% on China and 10% flat tariffs on key U.S. trade partners—broken down by:

🌍 GLOBAL LEVEL IMPACT

🔺 Key Figures

• Global trade value (2024): US$33 trillion
• Share of U.S. in global imports: ~13%
• Tariffs imposed on China: Raised from 34% to 145%
• New 10% blanket tariffs on 11 more countries covering ~45% of U.S. imports

🔁 Trade Impact

• Could reduce global trade growth by 1–1.5 percentage points.
• May result in US$300–500 billion in global trade losses by 2025.
• Consumer prices in the U.S. likely to rise (inflation rebound).
• Global supply chains will be reconfigured, disrupting:
  • Electronics
  • Apparel
  • Auto & machinery
• Services trade may stay resilient but also faces uncertainty due to retaliation risks.

🌍 AFRICA LEVEL IMPACT

📦 Africa–U.S. Trade Context

• Africa’s total trade with U.S. is relatively small (~2% of U.S. imports).
• Focused on raw materials (oil, metals), textiles, and agricultural exports.
• Top exporters: Nigeria, South Africa, Kenya, Ethiopia, Egypt.

🔺 Effects on Africa

🧾 Estimated Figures

• Africa’s trade may contract 1–2% due to ripple effects.
• African textile exports may benefit if AGOA preferences remain.
• South Africa could lose market share in metals and autos if retaliatory tariffs apply.

🌍 EAST AFRICA LEVEL IMPACT

📦 East Africa–U.S. Trade Context

• Key exporters: Kenya, Ethiopia, Uganda, Tanzania.
• Focus: coffee, tea, horticulture, garments (especially from Ethiopia and Kenya).

🔺 Effects on East Africa

🧾 Estimated Figures

• Kenya and Ethiopia could gain short-term apparel market share.
• But if U.S. demand weakens, export earnings may still fall 2–3%.
• Overall regional growth could be hit by 0.5–1% GDP decline due to lower trade income.

TANZANIA LEVEL IMPACT

📦 Tanzania–U.S. Trade Snapshot

• U.S. is not among top 5 trade partners.
• Key exports: coffee, tobacco, spices, textiles, minerals.
• Imports from U.S.: machinery, medical equipment, vehicles.

🔺 Effects on Tanzania

🧾 Estimated Figures

• Tanzania’s exports to U.S.: Likely unaffected directly (small share)
• But global slowdown could reduce export revenues by 1–2% (coffee, minerals)
• Capital goods (e.g., machines) could become 10–15% more expensive due to higher U.S. prices
• GDP growth may slow by 0.3–0.5 percentage points if global demand weakens

SUMMARY TABLE

Tanzania has experienced a steady decline in foreign aid, with official development assistance (ODA) dropping from $761 million in 2013 to $389 million in 2024 and further projected to fall to $118 million in 2025. With ODA accounting for 8.55% of the country's Gross National Income (GNI) of $79 billion, this decline signals the need for stronger domestic revenue generation, increased private sector participation, and enhanced public-private partnerships (PPPs). As tax revenue remains at only 11% of GDP, Tanzania must prioritize economic reforms to sustain growth amid shifting donor priorities.

Tanzania has experienced a fluctuating trend in Official Development Assistance (ODA) disbursements, with a peak of $761 million in 2013 followed by a gradual decline to $389 million in 2024 and a further projected drop to $118 million in 2025. This reduction has several critical implications:

1. Reduced Future Aid – Strengthening Domestic Revenue
   • In 2024, ODA accounts for 8.55% of Tanzania’s Gross National Income (GNI), indicating its significance in the economy.
   • Government tax revenue stands at 11% of GDP, which is relatively low compared to regional benchmarks (e.g., Kenya at 16% and South Africa at 25%).
   • With declining aid, Tanzania must improve tax collection efficiency, broaden the tax base, and formalize informal sectors to increase revenue generation.
2. Economic Independence – Strengthening Public Finance Management
   • The country’s GNI per capita is $1,200, showing that despite economic growth, a large portion of the population still has low-income levels.
   • Public debt management and financial discipline will be critical to ensure sustainability while reducing dependence on external funding.
3. Donor Shifts – Strategic Adaptation
   • The World Bank Group remains the top donor ($1.095 billion), followed by the U.S. ($429 million) and the Global Fund ($225 million).
   • The decline in aid could mean donors are shifting priorities, focusing on humanitarian crises or new sectors like climate resilience and digital transformation.
   • Tanzania must align its national development plans with donor interests to maintain strategic funding.
4. Public-Private Partnerships (PPP) – Mobilizing Investments
   • The sharp drop in aid from $647 million in 2023 to $118 million in 2025 suggests a pressing need for alternative financing models.
   • Attracting private sector investments in infrastructure, energy, agriculture, and technology through PPP frameworks can bridge the financing gap.
   • Strengthening investment policies and reducing bureaucratic hurdles will make Tanzania more attractive to investors.

The decline in foreign aid is a wake-up call for Tanzania to enhance tax policies, strengthen financial management, align with shifting donor priorities, and attract private sector investment. By focusing on these areas, Tanzania can transition towards sustainable economic growth and reduce its reliance on foreign assistance.

The declining foreign aid to Tanzania highlights key economic challenges and the urgent need for policy shifts:

1. Foreign Aid is Declining

• Tanzania's ODA disbursements peaked at $761 million in 2013 but have been fluctuating since.
• By 2024, aid dropped to $389 million and is projected to decline further to $118 million in 2025.
• This indicates a long-term reduction in donor dependency, forcing Tanzania to seek alternative funding sources.

2. Tanzania Must Strengthen Domestic Revenue Collection

• Tax revenue as a percentage of GDP is only 11%, much lower than in peer countries (e.g., Kenya ~16%).
• With GNI at $79 billion and GNI per capita at $1,200, the economy is growing, but tax efficiency needs improvement.
• Expanding the tax base and formalizing the informal sector can help replace lost donor funding.

3. Donor Priorities are Shifting

• The World Bank ($1.095 billion) remains the largest donor, followed by the U.S. ($429 million) and Global Fund ($225 million).
• Aid cuts suggest donors are redirecting funds to other priority countries or shifting towards new focus areas like climate resilience, technology, and security.
• Tanzania must align its policies with emerging donor interests to maintain funding for key projects.

4. Public-Private Partnerships (PPP) are Essential

• With aid dropping from $647 million in 2023 to a projected $118 million in 2025, Tanzania must fill the funding gap through private investments.
• Attracting private sector participation in infrastructure, agriculture, and industrialization is crucial for long-term economic sustainability.

5. The Path to Economic Independence

• The decline in aid can push Tanzania towards self-reliance, but it requires stronger fiscal management, industrialization, and investment-friendly policies.
• Strengthening PPP frameworks, improving business environments, and reducing bureaucratic barriers will be key to ensuring sustainable economic growth.

Conclusion

The figures tell us that Tanzania can no longer rely on foreign aid as a major economic driver. The country must boost domestic revenue, attract private investments, and adapt to changing donor priorities to ensure stable and sustainable growth.

Table: Tanzania’s ODA Disbursements (2001-2025)