Tanzania CPI April 2026: Inflation Rises to 4.0% | TICGL Economic Intelligence
Official Data — NBS Tanzania · Released 8 May 2026
Tanzania Inflation Rises to 4.0% in April 2026
The National Consumer Price Index (NCPI) for April 2026 signals rising inflationary pressure, driven by a sharp surge in transport costs, accelerating food prices, and a spike in fuel and energy. TICGL presents the full data with interactive charts and expert context.
📅 Reference period: April 2026🏛️ Source: National Bureau of Statistics (NBS)🇹🇿 Coverage: All 26 Mainland Regions📊 Base Year: 2020 = 100
Headline Inflation
4.0%
▲ from 3.2% (Mar 2026)
Food Inflation
5.7%
▲ from 5.5% (Mar 2026)
Core Inflation
3.1%
▲ from 2.2% (Mar 2026)
Transport (YoY)
9.2%
▲ Highest category
Section 1
About the National Consumer Price Index (NCPI)
The NCPI, published by Tanzania's National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), is the country's official measure of consumer price inflation. It tracks how the cost of a fixed basket of goods and services changes over time for a representative sample of Tanzanian households.
383
Total goods & services in basket
132
Food & non-alcoholic beverage items
251
Non-food items tracked
📍 Geographic Coverage
Price data is collected from all 26 regional headquarters on the Tanzanian mainland, ensuring nationwide representativeness across both urban and rural areas.
⚖️ Weights & Reference
Weights are derived from the 2017/18 Household Budget Survey, covering urban and rural households. The base price reference period is Jan–Dec 2020; index reference year is 2020.
🗂️ Classification Standard
The NCPI follows the UN COICOP 2018 classification, disseminated across 13 expenditure divisions. Supplementary indices include the Core Index, Energy Index, Services Index, and Goods Index.
📐 Index Formula
Elementary aggregates use the geometric mean of price relatives. Higher-level aggregates use the Lowe Index formula (a type of Laspeyres index), ensuring methodological alignment with international standards.
💡
Why it matters for investors: The NCPI is the primary instrument used by the Bank of Tanzania to calibrate monetary policy. Rising inflation—especially in food and transport—directly affects consumer purchasing power, wage demands, and the operating costs of businesses across all sectors.
Section 2
Annual Headline Inflation: 4.0% in April 2026
Tanzania's annual Headline Inflation Rate for April 2026 jumped to 4.0 percent, a significant increase from the 3.2 percent recorded in March 2026. The overall NCPI index rose from 119.78 in April 2025 to 124.61 in April 2026, reflecting broad-based price pressures across the economy — with transport being the most acute pressure point.
⚠️
Significant acceleration: The jump from 3.2% to 4.0% in a single month is notable. This 0.8 percentage point increase is largely driven by a 29.3% surge in diesel prices and a 29.6% rise in petrol between March and April 2026 — suggesting fuel cost pass-through into transport fares and general goods.
Chart 1: NCPI Index Value & Annual Inflation Rate — Apr 2025 to Apr 2026
Base year 2020 = 100 | Source: National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), Tanzania
Source: NBS Tanzania, May 2026
The chart above illustrates a broadly stable period from April 2025 through mid-2025, followed by a gradual upward trend beginning in late 2025 and accelerating into 2026. The inflation rate, which hovered between 3.2% and 3.5% for most of the year, broke above this band sharply in April 2026.
Section 3
NCPI by Expenditure Group — Full Breakdown
The table below presents the complete NCPI data for all 13 COICOP expenditure divisions, plus selected supplementary indices. Figures compare April 2025, March 2026, and April 2026 index values, along with 1-month and 12-month percentage changes.
Chart 2: 12-Month Inflation Rate by Expenditure Group — April 2026
Annual percentage change, base 2020 = 100
Source: NBS Tanzania, May 2026
#
Expenditure Group
Weight (%)
Apr 2025
Mar 2026
Apr 2026
1-Month Δ
12-Month Δ
1
Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages
28.2
130.62
136.88
138.12
+0.9%
+5.7%
2
Alcoholic Beverages & Tobacco
1.9
112.14
114.41
114.74
+0.3%
+2.3%
3
Clothing & Footwear
10.8
114.51
115.99
116.35
+0.3%
+1.6%
4
Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas & Other Fuels
15.1
118.90
119.82
120.93
+0.9%
+1.7%
5
Furnishings, Household Equipment & Maintenance
7.9
115.35
117.82
118.35
+0.4%
+2.6%
6
Health
2.5
109.31
110.35
111.03
+0.6%
+1.6%
7
Transport ⚡ Highest inflation
14.1
119.73
124.22
130.68
+5.2%
+9.2%
8
Information & Communication
5.4
106.17
107.20
107.18
0.0%
+1.0%
9
Recreation, Sport & Culture
1.6
111.13
111.65
111.93
+0.3%
+0.7%
10
Education Services
2.0
112.16
113.22
115.03
+1.6%
+2.6%
11
Restaurants & Accommodation Services
6.6
117.08
119.07
119.13
+0.1%
+1.8%
12
Insurance & Financial Services
2.1
102.46
102.57
102.59
0.0%
+0.1%
13
Personal Care, Social Protection & Misc.
2.1
118.05
121.88
122.15
+0.2%
+3.5%
TOTAL – ALL ITEMS INDEX
100.0
119.78
123.04
124.61
+1.3%
+4.0%
Supplementary Index Aggregations
Supplementary Index
Weight (%)
Apr 2025
Mar 2026
Apr 2026
1-Month Δ
12-Month Δ
Core Index
73.9
115.66
117.96
119.29
+1.1%
+3.1%
Non-Core Index
26.1
131.47
137.45
139.73
+1.7%
+6.3%
Energy, Fuel & Utilities Index ⚡
5.7
134.05
134.36
141.15
+5.1%
+5.3%
Services Index
37.2
112.54
114.99
117.07
+1.8%
+4.0%
Goods Index
62.8
124.07
127.80
129.09
+1.0%
+4.0%
Education Services & Products Index
4.1
114.37
115.22
116.02
+0.7%
+1.4%
All Items Less Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages
71.8
115.53
117.60
119.31
+1.5%
+3.3%
Source: NBS Tanzania — NCPI Press Release, 8 May 2026
Section 4
Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages Inflation: 5.7%
Food inflation rose to 5.7% year-on-year in April 2026, up from 5.5% in March 2026. With a basket weight of 28.2%, food is the single largest expenditure category and a critical driver of headline inflation. The 1-month increase of 0.9% suggests continued upward momentum. Non-food inflation (all items excluding food & non-alcoholic beverages) rose sharply to 3.3% from 2.1% in March, reflecting the pass-through of fuel costs into the broader economy.
The Core Index — which excludes volatile unprocessed food, energy, and utilities (with the exception of maize flour) — rose to 3.1% in April 2026, up markedly from 2.2% in March 2026. Covering 297 items representing 73.9% of the total NCPI weight, core inflation is widely regarded as a better indicator of underlying structural price trends.
The acceleration in core inflation is particularly significant from a policy standpoint: it signals that inflationary pressure is no longer confined to volatile categories like food and fuel, but is becoming more entrenched across the broader economy. This is the metric the Bank of Tanzania watches most closely.
Chart 4: Core vs Non-Core vs Headline Inflation — April 2026
12-month percentage change | 2020 = 100
Source: NBS Tanzania, May 2026
🏦
Monetary policy signal: With core inflation rising from 2.2% to 3.1% in one month, the Bank of Tanzania may face growing pressure to tighten monetary conditions. Investors and businesses should monitor the next Monetary Policy Committee statement for guidance on the interest rate outlook.
Section 6
Monthly Change: March to April 2026
The overall NCPI increased by 1.3% between March and April 2026 (from 123.04 to 124.61). This monthly jump — larger than any single-month movement in the preceding 12 months — is primarily attributable to the dramatic fuel price increases. The non-food sectors most affected are listed below.
Chart 5: Key Non-Food Price Increases — March to April 2026 (Monthly % Change)
In September 2025, Tanzania’s macroeconomic environment remained exceptionally stable, marked by a stronger shilling and low, well-anchored inflation. The exchange rate averaged TZS 2,471.69 per USD, appreciating by 0.75% month-on-month and 9.4% year-on-year—an impressive reversal from the sharp depreciation recorded in 2024. This stability was supported by strong export inflows from gold, cereals, and cashew nuts, alongside robust tourism earnings and targeted Bank of Tanzania interventions. Inflation held steady at 3.4%, well within the 3–5% target range and aligned with regional convergence criteria. Food inflation remained elevated at 7%, but non-food (1.9%) and energy inflation (3.7%) stayed subdued, helped by lower global oil prices and a strong currency. Together, these elements created a stable price environment, improving import affordability, reducing cost pressures for households and businesses, and enhancing the effectiveness of monetary policy transmission.
1. Tanzania Shilling Stability (September 2025)
The Tanzania shilling remained relatively strong and stable in 2025.
Key Figures
Average exchange rate: TZS 2,471.69 per USD
Previous month (August 2025): TZS 2,490.16
Monthly appreciation: ≈ 0.75%
Annual appreciation: 9.4%, compared to 7.6% in August 2025 (in contrast to 10.1% depreciation in 2024)
BOT FX market intervention (USD 11 million net sale)
Stabilized inflation and monetary policy
2. Tanzania Inflation Evolution (2025)
Inflation remained low, stable, and within official target range.
Inflation Figures
Headline inflation (Sep 2025): 3.4%
Same as August 2025: 3.4%
Target range: 3%–5%
EAC convergence criterion: ≤ 8%
SADC target: 3%–7%
Components
Food inflation: 7.0%
Non-food inflation: 1.9%
Core inflation: 2.2%
Energy/fuel/utilities: 3.7% (down from 11.5% in 2024 due to falling global oil prices)
3. How Shilling Stability Relates to Inflation
When the shilling is stable/strong:
Imported inflation falls
Strong shilling lowers cost of fuel, machinery, medicine, food imports.
Fuel prices decline
Domestic petrol and diesel prices dropped in 2025 (aligned with lower global oil prices).
Lower cost of tradable goods
Stabilizes prices in urban markets (transport, household items).
Reduced expectations of inflation
Businesses experience predictable import costs.
Consumers face steady price trends.
Monetary policy becomes more effective
Interbank rates (6.45%) stay within policy corridor, supporting price stability.
Summary Table: Shilling Stability vs Inflation (September 2025)
Indicator
Value
Movement
Economic Meaning
Exchange rate (TZS/USD)
2,471.69
Appreciated
Supports price stability
Monthly exchange rate change
+0.75%
Strengthened
Lower import costs
Annual exchange rate change
+9.4%
Appreciated
Reduces imported inflation
Headline inflation
3.4%
Stable
Within target
Food inflation
7.0%
Slightly eased
Adequate domestic food supplies
Core inflation
2.2%
Slightly up
Driven by household goods & transport
Energy/fuel inflation
3.7%
Down
Supported by stable shilling and oil prices
Interbank rate
6.45%
Within policy corridor
Monetary policy effective
Implications of Shilling Stability and Its Link to Inflation in September 2025
The interplay between the Tanzanian shilling's strength and low inflation in September 2025, as detailed in Sections 2.5 (Financial Markets, specifically the Interbank Foreign Exchange Market) and 2.2 (Inflation Developments) of the Bank of Tanzania's (BOT) Monthly Economic Review (October 2025), underscores a virtuous cycle of external resilience and price stability. The shilling appreciated 0.75% monthly (average TZS 2,471.69/USD vs. TZS 2,490.16 in August) and 9.4% annually—reversing the 10.1% depreciation seen in September 2024—amid robust export inflows (gold, cash crops, cashews), tourism earnings, and BOT's targeted intervention (net USD 11 million sale; Chart 2.5.3). This stability dovetails with headline inflation holding at 3.4% (within 3–5% target and EAC/SADC criteria), driven down by easing food (7.0%) and energy (3.7%) pressures. Below, I outline the implications, integrating broader economic dynamics like 6.3% Q2 GDP growth and accommodative policy (CBR 5.75%).
1. Shilling Appreciation: Bolstering External Buffers and Import Affordability
Monthly/Annual Gains (0.75% and 9.4%): These reflect ample FX liquidity in the IFEM (USD 93.8 million transactions, down slightly from USD 101.5 million in August but with banks handling 88.3%), fueled by export surges in gold (elevated prices) and non-traditional items like cereals/cashews . Tourism's rebound (post-global recovery; aligned with IMF's 3.2% 2025 growth outlook) added inflows, while BOT's intervention curbed volatility without depleting reserves.
Reversal from 2024 Depreciation: The shift from -10.1% y/y signals improved current account dynamics (e.g., trade surplus from commodities; mixed prices but oil decline aiding imports). This reduces pass-through to domestic prices, as a stronger shilling lowers USD-denominated costs (e.g., fuel imports down, mirroring global oil drop).
Broader Implications:
Positive: Enhances policy space for monetary easing (interbank rate at 6.45%, within 3.75–7.75% corridor), supporting 16.1% private credit growth and 20.8% M3 expansion. Boosts investor confidence, evident in oversubscribed long-term bonds.
Risks: Over-reliance on gold/tourism exposes to global shocks (e.g., protectionism; Charts 1.1a/b). If exports soften (e.g., weather-hit coffee), reserves could pressure the rate, though current levels (implied adequacy) provide a buffer.
2. Inflation Stability: Reinforced by Currency Strength and Supply Factors
Headline at 3.4% (Unchanged; Core 2.2%, Food 7.0%, Energy 3.7%): Stability stems from shilling-driven import cost relief (e.g., energy inflation halved from 11.5% y/y 2024 via cheaper oil/fuel) offsetting core upticks (household/transport). Food easing (from 7.7% in August) reflects NFRA stocks at 570,519 tonnes (up via 39,590-tonne purchases) and wholesale declines in staples (sorghum/potatoes), though rice/maize rose on regional demand.
Non-Food at 1.9%: Highlights shilling's role in curbing imported inflation (fuel/machinery/medicine), aligning with global moderation (4.2% projected) and EAC/SADC cooling.
Broader Implications:
Positive: Predictable costs foster business investment (e.g., in agriculture/mining, 1.8%/1.5% GDP contributions) and consumer confidence, aiding 6% full-year growth projection. Real rates remain positive (e.g., deposits ~6.4% real vs. 3.4% inflation), encouraging savings amid liquidity surplus.
Risks: Food's 7.0% (higher than headline) signals vulnerability to supply shocks (e.g., border demand or droughts). Global oil rebound could reverse energy gains, though shilling buffer mitigates.
3. Interlinkages: Shilling Strength Amplifying Monetary Effectiveness and Growth
Reduced Imported Inflation and Expectations: Stronger shilling (9.4% y/y) directly lowers tradable goods costs (transport/utilities), stabilizing urban prices and anchoring inflation expectations—key for BOT's neutral stance. This synergy with adequate food/power supply (enabling 6.3% GDP) creates a low-volatility environment.
Policy Transmission: Stable FX supports interbank easing (6.45% from 6.48%), with reverse repos managing liquidity, preventing spillovers to lending rates (15.18% overall; prior analysis).
Broader Implications:
Positive: Aligns with fiscal prudence (August deficit financed sustainably; Section 2.6) and debt stability (total USD 50.8B, 69.8% external), enhancing external resilience (e.g., disbursements USD 443M vs. service USD 131M). In Zanzibar, similar dynamics likely aid tourism-led recovery.
Risks: Currency overvaluation could erode export competitiveness if sustained, though annual gains counter 2024 weakness. Monitor global uncertainties (e.g., US rate cuts weakening USD).
4. Macroeconomic and Policy Context from the Review
Synergies Across Sections: Shilling/inflation stability complements robust output (agriculture/mining-led; Section 2.1), financial market depth (T-bill/bond oversubscription), and external debt management (multilateral dominance at 57%). Projections: Inflation 3–5%, growth 6%, with policy vigilance on commodities (oil down, gold up).
Outlook: Continued export/tourism inflows could sustain appreciation, but diversification (e.g., manufacturing) is key. BOT's FX policy ensures balance, supporting EAC integration.
Within targets; supports growth without overheating.
Food Inflation
7.0%
Eased from 7.7%
NFRA stocks buffer supply risks; shilling aids imports.
Core Inflation
2.2%
Up from 2.0%
Mild pressure from domestics; offset by FX stability.
Energy/Fuel Inflation
3.7%
Down from 11.5% (2024)
Oil + shilling synergy reduces transport costs.
Interbank Rate
6.45%
Eased from 6.48%
Effective policy transmission; ample liquidity.
In summary, the shilling's September 2025 strength implies fortified macroeconomic stability, directly muting inflation risks and enabling growth-focused policies. This tandem—rooted in exports, interventions, and supply adequacy—positions Tanzania resiliently, though vigilance on commodity volatility and food chains is essential for 2026 continuity.
Tanzania's National Consumer Price Index (NCPI) release for September 2025, issued by the National Bureau of Statistics on October 8, 2025, reveals a stable macroeconomic environment characterized by headline inflation holding steady at 3.4% year-over-year—the highest level since June 2023 but well within the Bank of Tanzania's (BoT) target range of 3-5%. This marks no change from August 2025, with the overall NCPI edging up slightly to 119.86 (2020=100) from 119.77, driven by modest price increases in select food and non-food items. Food and non-alcoholic beverages inflation eased to 7.0% from 7.7%, reflecting a -0.6% monthly dip in the index, while non-food inflation ticked up to 1.9% from 1.6%. Core inflation, excluding volatile items like unprocessed food and energy, rose modestly to 2.2% from 2.0%, signaling underlying price pressures remain contained.
This stability, amid robust GDP growth of 5.4% in Q1 2025, underscores Tanzania's resilient post-pandemic recovery and effective policy framework.
Tanzania Inflation Overview (September 2025)
Indicator
August 2025
September 2025
Change
Notes
Headline Inflation Rate
3.4%
3.4%
—
Inflation remained unchanged month-to-month.
Overall NCPI (2020 = 100)
119.77
119.86
+0.09
Slight increase in prices across key goods and services.
Economic Implications of Tanzania's September 2025 Inflation Data
1. Monetary Policy and Macroeconomic Stability
Support for Accommodative Stance: The unchanged headline rate and easing food pressures reinforce the BoT's decision to hold the Central Bank Rate (CBR) at 5.75% during its October 2, 2025, Monetary Policy Committee meeting. This reflects confidence in sustained inflation within the 3-5% target, avoiding the need for tightening that could stifle growth. Prudent monetary policy has historically anchored expectations, contributing to the shilling's relative stability (projected 3.7% depreciation in 2025) and low borrowing costs, which bolster private sector credit expansion.
Risk Mitigation: Core inflation's slight uptick suggests mild demand-pull pressures from economic expansion, but the overall trajectory—fluctuating between 3.0% and 3.4% over the past year—indicates no overheating. This reduces the likelihood of imported inflation from global commodity shocks, such as energy prices, which have eased regionally.
2. Impact on Household Consumption and Poverty
Relief for Low-Income Households: Food items, weighting 28.2% of the NCPI basket, drove much of the monthly index increase (e.g., +8.9% for cocoyams, +7.6% for sweet potatoes), yet annual food inflation's decline to 7.0% eases cost-of-living pressures for rural and urban poor households, who spend over 50% of income on food. This could sustain consumption resilience, supporting poverty reduction efforts amid 5.4% Q1 growth.
Mixed Non-Food Pressures: The +0.3% rise in non-food inflation, fueled by essentials like kerosene (+1.1%) and charcoal (+2.7%), may strain urban budgets amid seasonal energy demands. However, stable categories like health (0.0% monthly change) and education (+0.0%) provide buffers, potentially stabilizing real disposable incomes and consumer confidence.
Category
Weight (%)
12-Month Inflation (Sept 2025)
Implication for Households
Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages
28.2
7.0%
Easing trend aids affordability of staples, reducing food insecurity risks.
Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas & Fuels
15.1
2.3%
Modest rises in fuels like kerosene signal ongoing utility vulnerabilities.
Low non-food pressures preserve purchasing power for durables.
3. Sectoral and Supply-Side Dynamics
Agricultural Resilience: Despite monthly spikes in crops like sorghum flour (+3.6%) and dried peas (+4.0%), the food index's -0.6% drop points to improved harvests or supply chain efficiencies, possibly from favorable 2025 rainy seasons. This bodes well for Tanzania's agriculture sector (25% of GDP), enhancing export competitiveness in East Africa and curbing imported food inflation.
Energy and Manufacturing Pressures: Gains in the Energy, Fuel, and Utilities Index (+0.9% monthly to 3.7% annually) highlight vulnerabilities to global oil dynamics, but contained rises (e.g., liquefied hydrocarbons +0.1%) reflect BoT's forex interventions. Non-food drivers like clothing (+0.3% monthly) suggest manufacturing cost pass-throughs, potentially pressuring small enterprises but signaling domestic production gains.
Services Sector Boost: Stable services inflation (1.3% annually) in areas like restaurants (+1.0%) and recreation (-0.1% monthly) aligns with tourism recovery, a key growth driver projected at 6% GDP expansion for 2025.
4. Broader Growth and Investment Outlook
Pro-Growth Environment: Stable inflation complements fiscal prudence, with the IMF endorsing Tanzania's trajectory for 6% GDP growth in 2025, driven by infrastructure and mining investments. Low inflation volatility enhances investor confidence, attracting FDI (e.g., in natural gas) and supporting the shilling's stability against regional peers like Kenya's higher inflation.
Potential Risks: Persistent food volatility (still 7.0%) could re-emerge from climate events, while global factors like OECD-projected G20 inflation moderation to 2.9% in 2026 offer tailwinds but underscore external dependencies. If non-food trends accelerate, it might prompt BoT vigilance.
In summary, September 2025's inflation data signals a "soft landing" for Tanzania's economy—stable prices fostering inclusive growth without derailing expansion. This positions the country favorably in East Africa, where peers face higher volatility, and supports the BoT's projection of inflation averaging 3.4% for the year. Policymakers should prioritize agricultural diversification and energy security to sustain this momentum into 2026.
