Tanzania’s economic performance in 2025 reflects a period of strong macroeconomic stability, export-led growth, and improving external resilience, underpinned by prudent monetary management by the Bank of Tanzania (BoT). As of 30 November 2025, the BoT’s financial position signals a notable strengthening of the country’s economic fundamentals, with total assets rising to TZS 29.67 trillion, equivalent to a 4.9% increase (about TZS 1.39 trillion) compared to October 2025. This expansion mirrors heightened foreign exchange inflows, record performance in the mining sector—particularly gold—and rising domestic economic activity, all of which have reinforced liquidity conditions and reserve buffers.

A defining feature of 2025 has been the rapid accumulation of gold and liquid assets. Total gold holdings (monetary and bullion combined) increased by 18.6% to TZS 4.67 trillion, driven by the BoT’s domestic gold purchase programme and Tanzania’s exceptional export performance. Gold export earnings reached an estimated USD 4.3–4.43 billion in the year ending September/October 2025, representing a 35–36% year-on-year increase and firmly establishing gold as the country’s leading foreign exchange earner. In parallel, cash and cash equivalents rose by 32.8% to TZS 4.45 trillion, reflecting strong inflows from exports and services such as tourism, as well as improved liquidity management. These trends have contributed to a more diversified and resilient reserve position.

These monetary and reserve developments are consistent with Tanzania’s broader macroeconomic outcomes in 2025. Real GDP growth is estimated at 6.0–6.3%, supported by mining, tourism (with arrivals rising by around 11%), agriculture, manufacturing, and large-scale infrastructure projects. Inflation remained subdued at about 3.4% in November 2025, comfortably within the BoT’s 3–5% target band, while foreign exchange reserves stood at around USD 6.17 billion (approximately 4.7 months of import cover) by end-October 2025, meeting regional adequacy benchmarks and enhancing exchange rate stability.

Economic Trajectory for 2026

Looking ahead, Tanzania’s macroeconomic outlook for 2026 remains broadly positive, building on the strong foundations established in 2025. Current projections from international and domestic sources point to real GDP growth of about 6.1–6.3% in 2026, indicating stable to slightly accelerating momentum. Growth is expected to continue being driven by mining (especially gold), tourism, infrastructure investments, manufacturing, and gradual expansion in private sector credit, supported by ongoing structural reforms aimed at improving the business environment.

Inflation in 2026 is projected to remain around 3.5%, still within the BoT’s policy target range, reflecting continued prudent monetary policy, stable food supply conditions, and moderated global energy prices. Foreign exchange reserves are expected to remain adequate—above 4.5–5 months of import cover, bolstered by sustained gold and tourism receipts and steady capital inflows. Gold exports are likely to remain elevated, potentially exceeding USD 4 billion, although performance will remain sensitive to global commodity prices and production dynamics.

Overall, the 2026 trajectory suggests that Tanzania is well positioned to consolidate its macroeconomic gains, strengthen external buffers, and advance toward its medium-term development goals, including upper-middle-income status. Nonetheless, risks such as commodity price volatility, climate-related shocks, and post-election policy adjustments could influence outcomes. Maintaining fiscal discipline, deepening export diversification, and sustaining prudent monetary management will be critical to preserving stability and translating growth into inclusive and resilient economic development beyond 2026. Read More: Tanzania Economic Updates December 2025

Key Changes in the BoT Balance Sheet (November vs. October 2025)

The table below highlights selected major items (in TZS '000) with significant changes, focusing on those relevant to economic development (e.g., reserves, gold, and liquidity indicators).

The most notable development is the ~18.6% increase in total gold holdings (combined monetary and bullion gold), driven by Tanzania's mining sector expansion and the BoT's policy of purchasing gold from domestic producers. This aligns with record gold export earnings of approximately USD 4.3–4.43 billion in the year ending September/October 2025, a ~35–36% surge year-on-year, fueled by high global gold prices and increased production.

Broader Tanzania Economic Indicators (2025 Context)

Tanzania's economy in 2025 demonstrates resilient growth, low inflation, and strengthening external buffers, supported by key sectors: mining (gold-led), tourism (strong recovery in arrivals), agriculture (stable output despite weather risks), and infrastructure investments. GDP growth is driven by exports and public projects, with foreign reserves providing a buffer against external shocks.

These indicators reflect sustained economic development:

• Mining boom directly contributes to the BoT's gold reserve buildup, enhancing foreign exchange reserves and fiscal revenues.
• Low inflation (around 3–3.5%) supports purchasing power and investment attractiveness.
• Adequate reserves (4.5–5 months import cover) provide stability amid global uncertainties.
• Ongoing reforms (e.g., infrastructure like ports/railways, LNG projects) and private sector lending growth signal diversification beyond traditional agriculture.

Overall, the BoT balance sheet reinforces a positive outlook for Tanzania's economy, characterized by export-led growth, macroeconomic stability, and progressive reserve accumulation in 2025.

Tanzania's Economic Trajectory for 2026

Tanzania's strong macroeconomic momentum in 2025 is expected to carry into 2026, with projections indicating continued resilient growth, low inflation, and strengthening external buffers. International and domestic forecasts highlight sustained performance in key sectors—particularly mining, tourism, infrastructure investments, and manufacturing—while ongoing reforms aim to enhance diversification and private sector participation. The Bank of Tanzania's prudent monetary management and reserve accumulation are likely to support exchange rate stability and resilience against global uncertainties. However, risks such as potential political transitions following the 2025 elections, commodity price volatility, and climate-related challenges could moderate the pace if not managed effectively.

Projected Key Economic Indicators for 2026

The table below summarizes major forecasts from reputable sources (as of late 2025 data), compared to 2025 estimates for context.

Overall, the 2026 outlook reinforces Tanzania's path toward upper-middle-income status, with export-led growth and reserve buildup (as seen in the BoT's 2025 balance sheet trends) providing a solid foundation. Successful implementation of structural reforms, climate-resilient investments, and fiscal prudence will be critical to achieving these projections and mitigating downside risks.

Conclusion

The Bank of Tanzania's November 2025 balance sheet paints an optimistic picture of the nation's macroeconomic health, with significant asset growth, diversified reserves (particularly in gold), and strengthened equity signaling enhanced resilience and capacity for development financing. Tanzania's 2025 performance—marked by record export earnings, low and stable inflation, private sector credit expansion, and GDP growth around 6%—has been anchored by effective central bank policies and sectoral strengths in mining and tourism, providing a buffer against external risks while fostering inclusive progress.

As the economy transitions into 2026, projections of 6.1–6.3% GDP growth, inflation remaining around 3.5%, and sustained reserve adequacy offer a compelling outlook for continued momentum. Key opportunities lie in advancing structural reforms, climate-resilient investments, and diversification efforts to mitigate risks such as commodity price fluctuations or global slowdowns. With the BoT's prudent stewardship and export-led drivers intact, Tanzania is well-positioned to build on its 2025 gains, driving sustainable development, job creation, and regional leadership in the years ahead.

In 2024, Tanzania’s external sector demonstrated significant improvement, marked by a narrowing of the current account deficit, strong export performance, and a robust recovery in tourism. Key drivers such as higher gold exports and increased tourist arrivals contributed to the positive outlook, while controlled import growth and adequate foreign exchange reserves ensured external stability. These developments reflect effective economic management, positioning Tanzania for continued resilience and growth in the global market.

1. Current Account

• Deficit Narrowing: The current account deficit for the year ending October 2024 narrowed to USD 2,212.3 million, compared to USD 3,281.9 million for the year ending October 2023. This marks an improvement of USD 1,069.6 million or a 32.6% reduction in the deficit.
• Improvement Drivers: The reduction in the current account deficit is attributed to:
  • Export growth: A substantial increase in exports.
  • Favorable commodity prices: Particularly in gold and other key exports like tobacco, coffee, and cashew nuts.

2. Exports Performance

• Total Exports: Tanzania's total exports reached USD 15,497.8 million, reflecting a 12.9% increase compared to the previous year.

Traditional Exports:

• These grew from USD 910.2 million to USD 1,148.3 million, driven primarily by:
  • Tobacco
  • Coffee
  • Cashew nuts

Non-traditional Exports:

• Increased from USD 6,352.9 million to USD 6,922.7 million. Breakdown:
  • Gold: 47.8% of non-traditional exports, a major contributor to the export increase.
  • Horticultural Products: USD 496.2 million (up from USD 414.6 million).
  • Manufactured Goods: USD 1,315.0 million, contributing to the non-traditional export growth.

3. Services Receipts

• Total receipts from services grew to USD 6,950.6 million, up from USD 6,041.5 million. Key components:
  • Travel (Tourism): USD 3,676.1 million (19.7% increase), with tourist arrivals totaling 2,095,919.
  • Transport Earnings: USD 2,693.6 million, up from USD 2,340.8 million, indicating strong performance in logistics and shipping services.

4. Imports Performance

• Total Imports: USD 16,485.8 million, a 2.3% increase compared to the previous year.
• Key categories contributing to the import growth:
  • Iron and steel
  • Sugar for industrial use
  • Plastic items
  • Footwear
• Monthly Imports (October 2024):
  • Goods: USD 1,257.6 million
  • Services: USD 236.9 million

5. Foreign Exchange Reserves

• Reserves: USD 5,417.74 million, sufficient to cover 4.4 months of projected imports, exceeding the national benchmark of 4 months.
• This indicates a solid foreign exchange buffer, helping to manage import payments and external shocks.

6. Primary Income Account

• Deficit: The primary income account deficit widened to USD 1,777.8 million, compared to USD 1,542.4 million in the previous year. The deterioration was primarily due to:
  • Increased interest payments abroad, which have added pressure on the income balance.

7. Secondary Income Account

• Surplus: The surplus declined to USD 553.4 million from USD 641.5 million, with the surplus for October 2024 standing at USD 44.8 million. This is a decrease in the secondary income inflows, likely due to a reduction in remittances or other transfers.

8. World Commodity Prices (October 2024)

• Crude Oil: USD 74 per barrel, up from USD 72.4, influencing the import costs, particularly for petroleum-related goods.
• Gold: Prices continued to rise, benefiting Tanzania’s export revenue, especially from gold.
• Coffee, Tea, and Rice: Prices showed mixed trends, which likely had varied effects on Tanzania's agricultural export performance.

Key Observations:

1. Strong Export Performance: Both traditional (tobacco, coffee, cashew nuts) and non-traditional exports (especially gold) performed well, supporting Tanzania’s export growth.
2. Tourism Recovery: The tourism sector has shown a robust recovery, with a 19.7% increase in receipts, driven by a rise in tourist arrivals.
3. Import Growth Moderation: Despite a rise in imports, the growth rate has moderated to 2.3%, indicating controlled import spending.
4. Adequate Foreign Exchange Reserves: Reserves at USD 5,417.74 million are strong enough to cover 4.4 months of imports, supporting external stability.
5. Improved Trade Balance: The narrowing of the current account deficit and strong export growth indicate a better trade balance.
6. Robust Service Sector: The service sector, particularly tourism and transport, has performed well, contributing significantly to foreign exchange earnings.

Conclusion:

Tanzania’s external sector performance in 2024 shows:

• Improved trade balance, driven by strong export growth and controlled imports.
• Resilient tourism sector, contributing to increased services receipts.
• Strong foreign exchange reserves provide an adequate buffer for economic stability.
• Improved external position indicates effective economic management and resilience in the face of external shocks.

The analysis of Tanzania’s external sector performance in 2024 with positive trends and key insights about the country’s economic position:

1. Improved Economic Stability:
   • The narrowing of the current account deficit from USD 3.28 billion to USD 2.21 billion indicates a stronger balance of payments. This improvement suggests better economic management, with exports growing and imports being controlled, contributing to a healthier external position.
2. Strong Export Growth:
   • Total exports increased by 12.9%, with both traditional and non-traditional exports performing well. The growth in gold exports (nearly 48% of non-traditional exports), tobacco, coffee, and horticultural products shows that Tanzania is maintaining its competitiveness in key global markets.
3. Resilient Tourism Sector:
   • The tourism sector's recovery is evident in the 19.7% increase in tourism receipts, driven by more tourist arrivals (2,095,919). This sector is a key contributor to foreign exchange earnings and overall economic resilience, signaling a strong recovery from the challenges posed by global disruptions (such as the COVID-19 pandemic).
4. Moderate Import Growth:
   • While imports increased by 2.3%, the controlled growth reflects a balanced approach to foreign spending, suggesting that Tanzania is managing its consumption of foreign goods effectively. The moderation in import growth also helps in narrowing the trade deficit.
5. Adequate Foreign Exchange Reserves:
   • Tanzania's foreign exchange reserves of USD 5.42 billion, covering 4.4 months of imports, are sufficient to support external payments and protect against shocks. The reserves exceeding the national benchmark of 4 months demonstrate the country’s financial resilience.
6. Challenges in Primary Income and Secondary Income Accounts:
   • The primary income deficit has widened due to increased interest payments abroad, which reflects the costs associated with foreign debt or external financing. The secondary income surplus has decreased, which could indicate lower remittance flows or a drop in other transfers.
7. Commodity Price Trends:
   • The rise in gold prices and slight increase in crude oil prices are favorable for Tanzania’s export revenue (especially gold), while the increase in oil prices may lead to higher import costs, especially for petroleum-related goods.

Overall Implications:

• Strengthened External Position: The narrowing current account deficit, strong export performance, and adequate foreign exchange reserves indicate that Tanzania's external sector is strengthening.
• Economic Resilience: Despite global challenges, Tanzania’s economy shows resilience through growth in exports (especially gold) and services (tourism and transport).
• Effective Economic Management: The performance reflects the government’s effective management of external relations, particularly with controlling imports and maintaining stable foreign reserves.
• Opportunities for Growth: The strong export and tourism performances offer significant opportunities for further growth in these sectors, contributing to Tanzania's broader economic development.

In summary, Tanzania’s external sector is performing well, with stronger exports, a resilient tourism sector, moderate import growth, and adequate reserves. However, challenges remain, particularly regarding increased foreign debt payments.