TICGL Research · February 2026 · Updated & Integrated Edition
Tanzania – India Relations A Comprehensive Data-Driven Report
From a century-old maritime trade bond to a 21st-century Strategic Partnership — tracking USD 8.6 billion in bilateral trade, USD 3.74 billion in Indian FDI, and the institutions shaping East Africa's most dynamic bilateral relationship.
📅 February 2026📊 Data: 2019–2026🏢 TICGL Economic Research Unit🌐 ticgl.com
USD 8.6BBilateral Trade (2024)↑ 263% since 2020-21
USD 4.67BIndia Exports to TZ↑ 124% Nov 2024
USD 3.93BTZ Exports to IndiaIndia = #1 TZ export market
USD 3.74BIndian FDI in Tanzania↑ 50% since 2020
StrategicPartnership LevelDeclared Oct 2023
Section 01
Overview & Historical Background
India and Tanzania share one of Africa's oldest and most robust bilateral relationships. Indian merchants — predominantly from Gujarat (Kutch and Kathiawad) — settled along the East African coast, particularly in Zanzibar and Tanganyika, as early as the 19th century. This centuries-long connection evolved from trade routes into a living diaspora of approximately 55,000–60,000 people of Indian origin resident in Tanzania today.
India established its Diplomatic Mission in Tanganyika in 1961 — before independence was formally declared — and Tanzania opened its mission in India in 1962. From the 1960s through the 1980s, both nations were united by shared post-colonial ideologies: anti-colonialism, socialism, and South-South cooperation, exemplified by the close friendship between Julius Nyerere and India's leadership.
"The relationship was formally elevated to a Strategic Partnership during President Samia Suluhu Hassan's State Visit to India in October 2023, where 15 bilateral agreements were signed — marking the most transformative diplomatic milestone in decades."
Today, India is Tanzania's second-largest trading partner in Africa (after China), its largest export market, and consistently ranks among the top five sources of Foreign Direct Investment. The relationship spans trade, infrastructure financing, defence cooperation, education, health, and people-to-people links — making it a genuinely multidimensional strategic partnership.
🏛️
Pre-Independence Mission (1961)
India opened its diplomatic mission in Tanganyika before formal independence — one of the earliest African missions, reflecting deep historical ties.
🤝
Strategic Partnership (2023)
Declared during President Samia's October 2023 State Visit to India. Fifteen agreements signed covering water, energy, education, defence, and local currency trade.
🎯
USD 10B Trade Target (2025)
At the July 2025 Tanzania-India Business Forum, both governments set a target of USD 10 billion in bilateral trade, with pharma, agro-processing, and ICT as priority sectors.
Key Diplomatic Milestones
1961
India Opens Mission in Tanganyika
Pre-independence; one of India's earliest African missions, reflecting the depth of the historical relationship.
1966
First India–Tanzania Trade Agreement Signed
Formal trade framework established, setting the foundation for what would become a multi-billion dollar relationship.
2003
MOU on Defence Cooperation
Foundational defence partnership agreement, later upgraded in 2022 with a full bilateral Defence Cooperation Agreement.
July 2016
PM Narendra Modi Visits Tanzania
First Indian PM visit to Tanzania in decades. Multiple Lines of Credit and agreements signed; USD 1M health grant provided.
2022
Bilateral Defence Cooperation Agreement Upgraded
India-Tanzania-Mozambique trilateral maritime exercise conducted. India gifted an Inshore Patrol Vessel (IWTS) to Tanzania Police.
July 2023
India FM Visits Tanzania; IIT Madras Zanzibar MOU
Health, education, and pharma MOUs signed. IIT Madras agreed to establish first-ever overseas IIT campus in Zanzibar.
October 2023 ⭐
Strategic Partnership Declared — President Samia's State Visit
LANDMARK: 15 agreements signed including Rupee-Shilling trade mechanism, industrial park allocation, defence roadmap, and more. Most transformative milestone in history of bilateral relations.
July 2025
Tanzania–India Business Forum 2025
USD 10 billion trade target set. Pharma hub, agro-processing, and ICT identified as priority sectors for next phase of growth.
Diplomatic Events Summary Table
Year
Event
Outcome / Significance
1961
India opens Mission in Tanganyika
Pre-independence; one of earliest African missions
1966
First India–Tanzania Trade Agreement
Formal trade framework established
2003
MOU on Defence Cooperation signed
Foundational defence partnership
July 2016
PM Modi visits Tanzania
First Indian PM visit in decades; multiple LOCs & agreements; health grants
Sources: High Commission of India Dar es Salaam · Ministry of External Affairs India · TICGL Research Compilation
Section 02
Bilateral Trade & Economic Relations
India is Tanzania's second-largest trading partner in Africa (after China). Bilateral trade surged from USD 2.37 billion in 2020-21 to USD 8.60 billion in 2024 — a 263% increase in just four years — driven by post-COVID recovery, strong demand for Indian petroleum products, and growing Tanzanian commodity exports. Projections based on linear regression of 2020–2025 data point to bilateral trade crossing USD 10 billion by 2026.
At the July 2025 Tanzania-India Business Forum, both governments formally set a target of achieving USD 10 billion in bilateral trade — a target TICGL analysis suggests is achievable by 2026 at the current growth trajectory of ~8–10% per annum.
↑ TREND LINE
Tanzania–India Bilateral Trade Growth (2019–2026)
USD Billions · Actual 2019-2024 · 2025-2026 Projected · Linear regression trendline overlaid
↑ TREND
India Exports to Tanzania
USD Billions · 2019–2026
↑ TREND
Tanzania Exports to India
USD Billions · 2019–2026
Bilateral Trade Data Table (2019–2026)
Year
Bilateral Trade (USD B)
YoY Growth
India Exports to TZ (USD B)
TZ Exports to India (USD B)
Status
2019-20
2.76
—
~1.40
~1.36
Actual
2020-21
2.37
-14.1%
1.63
0.74
Actual
2021-22
4.58
+93.2%
~2.80
~1.78
Actual
2022-23
6.48
+41.5%
3.90
2.58
Actual
2023-24
7.91
+22.1%
4.62
3.29
Actual
2024 (CY)
8.60
+8.7%
~4.67
~3.93
Actual
2025 (Est.)
~9.50
~+10.5%
~5.20
~4.30
Estimate
2026 (Proj.)
~10.22
~+7.6%
~5.60
~4.62
Projection
Sources: DGCI&S India · High Commission of India Dar es Salaam · TanzaniaInvest. Yellow rows = estimates/projections based on ~10-15% average growth trend. 2026 projection based on linear regression on 2020-2025 data.
Year-on-Year Trade Growth Rate (%)
Bilateral trade growth percentage · 2020-21 to 2026 (projected)
Section 02.2
India's Major Exports to Tanzania
India's exports to Tanzania are dominated by refined petroleum, which alone accounts for approximately 65% of total exports (USD 3.05 billion in 2024). India's export growth to Tanzania surged by over 124% between November 2024 and 2025, reflecting rapid expansion beyond energy into value-added sectors including pharmaceuticals, motor vehicles, and machinery.
The pharmaceutical sector is emerging as a key growth pillar, with Tanzania designated as a prospective regional pharma manufacturing hub for East, Central and Southern Africa — an initiative formalized in the October 2023 Strategic Partnership agreements.
India's Exports to Tanzania by Category (2024)
USD Billions · Total ~USD 4.67B
Export Composition — India to Tanzania
Horizontal bar breakdown · 2024
Product Category
Value (USD B, 2024)
% Share
Trend
Petroleum Products (Refined)
3.05
~65%
Core / Stable
Pharmaceuticals & Chemicals
0.50
~11%
↑ High Growth
Motor Vehicles & Auto Parts
0.40
~9%
Growing
Machinery & Electrical Equipment
0.30
~6%
Stable
Sugar, Textiles & Other
0.42
~9%
Stable
TOTAL
~4.67
100%
Source: OEC World Trade Data · High Commission of India. Total ~USD 4.67B in 2024.
Section 02.3
Tanzania's Major Exports to India
India is the largest market for Tanzanian exports, absorbing commodities that directly support Tanzania's agricultural and mining sectors. Gold dore dominates, followed by cashew nuts, pulses, and horticultural products. The avocado sector is emerging rapidly as a high-growth frontier, driven by India's rising middle class and increasing demand for health foods. Zanzibar cloves represent a historic trade link that persists to the present day.
Tanzania's total exports to India reached approximately USD 3.93 billion in 2023-24, with gold and minerals accounting for the largest share. Cashew nuts remain a strategically important export, and Tanzania's government is pushing to increase local processing from roughly 10% to 60% of total production — a transformation that could significantly increase export value.
Tanzania's Exports to India by Category (2023-24)
USD Billions · Total ~USD 3.93B
TZ Export Categories — Ranked
USD Billions · Descending order · 2023-24
Product Category
Value (USD B, 2023-24)
Notes
Growth Outlook
Gold & Minerals (Dore)
~1.50
Largest export; growing
↑ Growing
Cashew Nuts & Seeds
~1.00
Major agricultural export
Stable
Pulses (Pigeon Peas, Soybeans)
~0.50
India is key buyer
Stable
Avocados & Horticultural Products
~0.30
Emerging, fast-growing
↑ High Growth
Timber & Precious Stones
~0.30
Tanzanite & others
Stable
Spices (Zanzibar Cloves)
~0.13
Historic trade link
Stable
Other Products
~0.20
Various
TOTAL
~3.93
India = TZ's largest export market
Source: Tanzania Investment Centre · Ministry of Trade Tanzania · DGCI&S India. Total ~USD 3.93B in 2023-24.
Section 03
Investment Relations (FDI)
India is consistently among the top five sources of FDI into Tanzania. Cumulative Indian investment reached USD 3.74 billion by 2023, up from USD 2.50 billion in 2020 — a 50% increase in three years. Indian investors span banking, telecommunications, manufacturing, water infrastructure, agriculture, and pharmaceuticals. An estimated USD 4.20 billion in cumulative FDI is projected by 2025.
During the October 2023 Strategic Partnership summit, Tanzania set an ambitious target of attracting USD 3 billion in new Indian FDI by 2025 (on top of existing stock), with a dedicated industrial park on the Coast Region allocated specifically for Indian investors — a first of its kind in Tanzania.
↑ 50% GROWTH
Indian FDI in Tanzania: Cumulative Stock (2020–2025)
USD Billions · 2025 is estimated · Area chart with trend
Year
Indian FDI in Tanzania (USD B)
Change
Key Sectors in Focus
2020
2.50
—
Agriculture, Telecommunications
2022
3.65
↑ +46%
Energy, Construction, Water Infrastructure
2023
3.74
↑ +2.5%
Vaccines/Biosciences, Mining, Pharma
2025 (Est.)
~4.20
↑ +12.3%
Agro-Processing, ICT, Industrial Parks
Source: Tanzania Investment Centre (TIC) · Ministry of External Affairs India. 2025 estimate based on 10-15% annual FDI growth trajectory.
Indian FDI by Sector in Tanzania (2023 Estimated Split)
Illustrative sector distribution based on TIC & Ministry of External Affairs data
Section 03.1
Major Indian Companies in Tanzania
Indian business presence spans multiple strategic sectors. Key highlights include Airtel Tanzania (one of the country's largest telecom operators), three Indian public sector banks, Larsen & Toubro's landmark USD 500 million water infrastructure project, Mahindra & Tata vehicles widespread across commercial and agricultural use, and Hester Biosciences producing veterinary vaccines for the broader East African market.
Company / Group
Sector
Presence & Notes
Airtel Tanzania
Telecom
Major mobile operator; millions of subscribers; market leader in several regions
Bank of Baroda, Bank of India, Canara Bank
Banking
3 Indian public-sector banks operational in Tanzania; trade finance, retail banking
Tata Motors / Tata Africa
Automotive
Commercial vehicles; Eicher buses widely used in public transport across Tanzania
Mahindra & Mahindra / Sonalika
Agriculture
Tractors supplied via LOC; widespread in rural Tanzania — transforming smallholder farming
Larsen & Toubro (L&T)
Infrastructure
Lead contractor for USD 500M water LOC project — one of the largest infrastructure contracts in Tanzania
Bajaj / TVS / Hero
Two-Wheelers
Motorcycles & three-wheelers (Bajaj-type) dominant in Tanzania's informal transport sector
Kamal Group
Steel
Steel manufacturing operations in Tanzania
Hester Biosciences
Animal Health
Veterinary vaccines production serving East Africa's livestock sector
Kalpataru
Power
Electricity infrastructure and power transmission line projects
📡
Telecom & Banking
Airtel Tanzania and three Indian state banks form the backbone of Indian financial and digital presence. Combined, they serve millions of Tanzanian households and businesses.
🚜
Agriculture Transformation
Indian brands (Mahindra, Sonalika) dominate Tanzania's tractor market, supplied through Lines of Credit. Indian two-wheelers power the boda-boda economy nationwide.
💧
Infrastructure at Scale
Larsen & Toubro's USD 500M water project is among the largest infrastructure contracts in Tanzania's history — Indian engineering at transformational scale.
Section 04
Development Partnership & Lines of Credit (LOC)
Tanzania is the top African recipient of Indian development financing. Between 2001 and 2022, India extended over USD 1.1 billion in Lines of Credit (LOC) to Tanzania — all channeled through the Export-Import Bank of India. These projects have focused almost entirely on water infrastructure, directly impacting the lives of millions of Tanzanians through improved access to clean water.
Beyond infrastructure, India has provided significant humanitarian and health grants: USD 1 million in medicines (2016–2020), a Bhabhatron-II cancer therapy machine at Bugando Medical Centre (Mwanza), 10 ambulances to the Ministry of Health (2023), and over 130,000 science textbooks for secondary schools. India's ITEC programme provides 650 scholarships annually, while ICCR provides 85 cultural scholarships.
Tanzania is India's #1 African recipient of Lines of Credit — over USD 1.1 billion disbursed since 2001, entirely through the Exim Bank of India, primarily for water infrastructure serving millions of Tanzanians.
LOC Project Portfolio (2013–2022)
2013
Tractors & Agricultural Equipment
USD 40M
✓ Complete
2015
Water Supply – Dar es Salaam & Chalinze
USD 178.1M
✓ Complete
2017
Lake Victoria Pipeline – Tabora, Igunga & Nzega
USD 268.4M
✓ Complete
2018
Water Infrastructure – Multiple Towns (L&T as Lead)
USD 500M
⚙ Ongoing
2022
Water Supply Rehabilitation – Zanzibar
USD 92.2M
✓ Near Complete
2001–2022 TOTAL
All LOC Projects Combined
USD 1.1B+
5 Projects · Various Status
Indian Lines of Credit to Tanzania — Project Values (USD Millions)
2013–2022 · Color indicates project status
Year
Project
Amount (USD M)
Status
2013
Tractors & Agricultural Equipment
40.0
Complete
2015
Water Supply – Dar es Salaam & Chalinze
178.1
Complete
2017
Lake Victoria Pipeline – Tabora, Igunga & Nzega
268.4
Complete
2018
Water Infrastructure – Multiple Towns (L&T)
500.0
Ongoing
2022
Water Supply Rehabilitation – Zanzibar
92.2
Near Complete
TOTAL
All LOC Projects (2001–2022)
~1,100+
Sources: High Commission of India Dar es Salaam · Ministry of External Affairs India · Exim Bank India
Health, Education & Humanitarian Grants
💊
USD 1M in Medicines (2016–2020)
India supplied a USD 1 million consignment of essential medicines to Tanzania's Ministry of Health over this period, supporting primary healthcare.
🏥
Bhabhatron-II Cancer Machine
India gifted a Bhabhatron-II cancer therapy machine to Bugando Medical Centre in Mwanza — improving radiotherapy access for patients in Northwest Tanzania.
📚
130,000+ Science Textbooks
India donated over 130,000 science textbooks for Tanzanian secondary schools, plus 10 ambulances to the Ministry of Health in 2023.
Tanzania–India Strategic Partnership: Diplomacy, Defence & 2026 Outlook | TICGL
TICGL Research · Batch 2 · Sections 5–8
Tanzania – India Relations Diplomacy, Strategy, People & 2026 Outlook
Deep analysis of the institutional framework, strategic cooperation pillars, people-to-people ties, and data-driven projections for the Tanzania–India relationship through 2026.
Section 05
Diplomatic & Political Relations
India and Tanzania have maintained an unbroken thread of high-level diplomatic engagement since 1961. The relationship was formally upgraded to a Strategic Partnership at the landmark October 2023 State Visit, where 15 agreements were signed — including accords on water, energy, education, defence, and a historic local-currency trade mechanism that reduces dependence on the US dollar.
Both countries are active in multilateral forums: as founding members of the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM), and as voices for Global South priorities in the G20, UN, and WTO. India's solidarity with Tanzania during Tanzania's quest for a non-permanent UN Security Council seat reflects the depth of political alignment between the two governments.
The October 2023 Strategic Partnership is the most significant upgrade in the bilateral relationship since independence. The 15 agreements signed during President Samia's State Visit cover the full breadth of the relationship — from submarine cable connectivity to vaccine manufacturing to defence cooperation.
Sources: Ministry of External Affairs India · High Commission of India Dar es Salaam · TICGL Research
Section 05.1
Institutional Mechanisms
Five permanent institutional mechanisms underpin the Tanzania–India relationship, providing structured channels for cooperation across economic, technical, scientific, defence, and parliamentary dimensions. These bodies meet regularly and have become the operational backbone of the Strategic Partnership.
1
India-Tanzania Joint Commission on Economic, Technical & Scientific Cooperation
The apex body for bilateral economic and technical cooperation; reviews progress on all LOC and trade targets.
Joint Working Groups: Water, Counter-Terrorism & Hydrography
Three specialist working groups covering Tanzania's priority water infrastructure, regional security, and maritime boundary cooperation.
4
Joint Defence Cooperation Committee
Oversees the 5-year Defence Roadmap agreed in October 2023, coordinates training, equipment transfers, and joint exercises.
5
Parliamentary Friendship Groups (Both Legislatures)
People's groups in both parliaments that maintain legislative-level bilateral ties, facilitating study visits and co-legislative learning between Tanzania's Parliament and India's Lok Sabha.
Section 06
Strategic Cooperation Areas
The 2023 Strategic Partnership declaration formalized ten major cooperation pillars. These span scholarships and education, maritime defence, digital finance, pharmaceutical manufacturing, agriculture, energy, and cultural ties. Each pillar has concrete deliverables, timelines, and designated implementing agencies on both sides.
Sector
Key Initiatives & Data
Status
💧 Water Infrastructure
~USD 1.1B in LOC projects; 4 complete projects including Lake Victoria pipeline serving 3 million+
4 Complete · 1 Ongoing
💊 Pharmaceuticals
Regional pharma manufacturing hub for East/Central/Southern Africa — MOU signed Oct 2023
Planning Phase
🎓 IIT Madras Zanzibar
World's first-ever overseas IIT campus globally; MOU signed July 2023; focus on STEM for East Africa
Under Development
🏫 Scholarships (ITEC/ICCR)
650 ITEC scholarships + 85 ICCR scholarships annually for Tanzanian students in India
Active & Ongoing
🛡️ Defence & Maritime
5-year Defence Roadmap; trilateral exercises with Mozambique (2022 & 2024); IWTS gifted to TPDF
Active · Annual
🌾 Agriculture
LOC tractors (Mahindra/Sonalika); SIDO-NSIC SME partnership; avocado & cashew value chain
Special Rupee Vostro Accounts; bilateral local currency trade mechanism launched Oct 2023
Launched Oct 2023
⚡ Energy (LNG)
India's interest in Tanzania's natural gas (LNG) sector; biofuels discussions ongoing
Negotiations Ongoing
🏭 Industrial Park
Dedicated industrial zone on Tanzania's Coast Region allocated for Indian investors — Oct 2023 agreement
Site Allocated
Source: High Commission of India (Dar es Salaam) · Ministry of External Affairs India · Tanzania Investment Centre (TIC)
Cooperation Maturity by Pillar
Estimated progress score 0–10 per cooperation area (2024)
Annual ITEC & ICCR Scholarships to Tanzania
Number of scholarships per year · 2018–2025
Section 06.1
Maritime & Defence Security
India views Tanzania as a key Indo-Pacific strategic partner. The Indian Ocean connects both nations — India's western coast faces the same ocean that Tanzania's eastern coast borders — making maritime security a natural area of bilateral convergence. Indian Naval Ships (INS) have conducted regular port calls in Dar es Salaam and Zanzibar, joint EEZ (Exclusive Economic Zone) patrols, and bilateral maritime exercises.
The landmark India-Tanzania-Mozambique trilateral maritime exercise in 2022 — with a follow-up in 2024 — reflects India's expanding Indian Ocean strategy and Tanzania's growing role in regional maritime security architecture. In 2024, India gifted an Infantry Weapon Training Simulator (IWTS) to the Tanzania Peoples' Defence Forces (TPDF), marking a new dimension of hardware defence cooperation.
India's gifting of an IWTS to Tanzania's defence forces in 2024, under a 5-year Defence Roadmap, signals that the strategic partnership has teeth — moving beyond diplomatic declarations into concrete military capability building.
2003 · FOUNDATION
First MOU on Defence Cooperation
Established the formal legal framework for bilateral military cooperation, training exchanges, and intelligence sharing.
2016 · EXPANSION
PM Modi Visit — Defence Deepening
PM Modi's visit accelerated defence engagement, with renewed MOUs and the launch of regular naval port call schedules.
2022 · TRILATERAL
India-Tanzania-Mozambique Maritime Exercise
First trilateral maritime exercise in East African waters — a landmark for India's Indian Ocean strategy and Tanzania's regional role.
October 2023 · ROADMAP
5-Year Defence Roadmap Agreed
Comprehensive 5-year defence cooperation roadmap signed during President Samia's State Visit. Covers training, equipment, exercises, and intelligence.
2024 · HARDWARE
IWTS Gifted to Tanzania (TPDF)
India gifted an Infantry Weapon Training Simulator to the Tanzania Peoples' Defence Forces — tangible defence hardware cooperation under the 5-year roadmap.
2024 · TRILATERAL 2
Second Trilateral Maritime Exercise
Second India-Tanzania-Mozambique maritime exercise held, cementing the trilateral format as a recurring feature of Indian Ocean cooperation.
Relative significance of defence events by year (scaled 1–10)
Section 06.2
Rupee–Shilling Trade Mechanism
A landmark financial innovation emerged from the October 2023 State Visit: the agreement authorizing Special Rupee Vostro Accounts for Tanzanian correspondent banks. This enables bilateral trade to be settled in Indian Rupees (INR) and Tanzanian Shillings (TZS) — bypassing the US dollar entirely for qualifying transactions.
The mechanism directly reduces transaction costs, shortens settlement times, and insulates bilateral trade from dollar volatility. It mirrors mechanisms India has introduced with Russia, UAE, and other partners — and represents a significant step in India's broader strategy of internationalizing the Rupee while deepening financial integration with African partners.
The Rupee-Shilling trade mechanism is not merely a financial technicality — it is a structural shift in how two of the Indian Ocean world's key economies engage. Reducing dollar dependency is a shared priority for both governments in an era of currency volatility.
How the Rupee-Shilling Trade Mechanism Works
🇮🇳
Indian Exporter/Importer
Transacts in INR ₹
⇄
Special Rupee Vostro Accounts
Tanzanian banks hold INR accounts at Indian banks — trades settled without USD conversion
⇄
🇹🇿
Tanzanian Exporter/Importer
Transacts in TZS
💰
Reduced Transaction Costs
Eliminating USD conversion in both directions reduces currency exchange fees, bid-ask spreads, and correspondent bank charges — a direct saving for traders on both sides.
⏱️
Faster Settlement
Direct INR-TZS settlement avoids the multi-leg SWIFT routing that USD transactions require, reducing settlement time from days to hours for qualifying trades.
🛡️
Reduced Dollar Dependency
Both Tanzania and India benefit from reduced exposure to USD volatility for bilateral transactions — a shared strategic interest as both manage large current account flows in dollars.
Section 06.3
Education & IIT Madras Zanzibar
India provides 650 ITEC scholarships and 85 ICCR scholarships annually to Tanzanian students — covering training programmes from public health administration and ICT to civil engineering and business management. These scholarships form the most consistent and broad-based dimension of India's development partnership with Tanzania, benefiting hundreds of Tanzanian professionals each year.
The establishment of IIT Madras Zanzibar — the world's first-ever overseas IIT campus anywhere globally — is the most historic academic milestone in the Tanzania–India relationship. The MOU was signed in July 2023. When fully operational, the campus will offer world-class engineering and data science education to students from Tanzania and the broader East African region — a transformational investment in human capital.
IIT Madras Zanzibar is not just a bilateral milestone — it is a global first. No Indian Institute of Technology has ever established an overseas campus. That Tanzania was chosen for this honour speaks to the depth and ambition of the Strategic Partnership.
📋
ITEC Programme — 650 Scholarships/Year
India Technical and Economic Cooperation (ITEC) provides fully-funded training placements in India for Tanzanian officials and professionals. Fields include: public administration, defence, ICT, agriculture, infrastructure, and business. Since 2000, thousands of Tanzanians have trained in India under ITEC.
650/yr
🎭
ICCR Cultural Scholarships — 85/Year
Indian Council for Cultural Relations (ICCR) scholarships support Tanzanian students pursuing full undergraduate and postgraduate degrees in Indian universities, fostering deep people-to-people connections in arts, culture, science, and social sciences.
85/yr
🏛️
IIT Madras Zanzibar — World's First Overseas IIT
MOU signed July 2023. Campus located in Zanzibar. Initial focus on Data Science and Artificial Intelligence programmes. Will serve students from Tanzania, Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, and other East African nations — positioning Zanzibar as a STEM education hub for the region.
2023 MOU
🧘
Swami Vivekananda Cultural Centre (SVCC)
India's cultural centre in Dar es Salaam offers Yoga, Hindi language classes, Indian classical music, and cultural programming. In 2024, Tanzania was named the partner country at India's International Gita Mahotsav in Kurukshetra — a significant cultural honour.
Active
Cumulative Tanzanian Beneficiaries of Indian Scholarship Programmes (Estimated 2010–2025)
ITEC + ICCR combined beneficiaries · stacked area chart
Section 07
People-to-People Ties & Diaspora
Tanzania hosts approximately 40,000 people of Indian origin, primarily from Gujarat (Kutch and Kathiawad). An additional 15,000–20,000 Indian citizens (holding Indian passports) are resident in Tanzania — making the total Indian community roughly 55,000–60,000 strong. This diaspora, concentrated in Dar es Salaam, Arusha, Mwanza, and Zanzibar, is deeply embedded in Tanzanian commerce, professional life, and civil society.
Cultural engagement is managed by the Swami Vivekananda Cultural Centre (SVCC) in Dar es Salaam. In 2024, Tanzania was designated the partner country at the International Gita Mahotsav in Kurukshetra, India — a significant cultural honour. A notable historical footnote: Mahatma Gandhi stopped in Zanzibar and Dar es Salaam during journeys between India and South Africa in the late 19th century. Kiswahili itself contains significant loan words from Gujarati and other Indian languages — a linguistic testament to centuries of maritime and mercantile exchange.
~40,000People of Indian Origin (PIOs) in Tanzania
~15–20kIndian Citizens (Passport Holders) Resident in TZ
~55–60kTotal Indian-Origin Community in Tanzania
100+ yrsDiaspora Presence (Gujarati merchants since ~1890s)
Indian Community in Tanzania — Geographic Distribution
Estimated share of ~55,000 total community by city
Diaspora by Origin State (India)
Estimated breakdown — predominantly Gujarati
Cultural & Historical Connections
🚢
Mahatma Gandhi's East Africa Stops
Gandhi stopped in Zanzibar and Dar es Salaam during his journeys between India and South Africa in the late 19th century — an early thread connecting India and Tanzania's histories.
🗣️
Gujarati Loan Words in Kiswahili
Kiswahili contains significant vocabulary borrowed from Gujarati and other Indian languages — words used in trade, commerce, and daily life — a living linguistic record of centuries of Indian Ocean trade.
🌺
Tanzania at Gita Mahotsav 2024
Tanzania was designated the partner country at the International Gita Mahotsav in Kurukshetra, India in 2024 — a significant cultural honour that reflects the depth and recognition of Tanzania–India people-to-people ties.
Section 08
Data-Driven Outlook & Projections to 2026
Based on historical growth data (2020–2025) and applying a conservative linear regression model with ~8–10% annual growth, the following projections have been derived. These assume continued political stability, maintained global commodity prices, and progress on the 2023 Strategic Partnership commitments. The methodology uses linear regression on 2019–2025 data with cross-checks against sector growth forecasts from the IMF, World Bank, and Tanzania Investment Centre (TIC). Exchange rate assumption: USD 1 = TZS 2,500.
At the July 2025 Tanzania-India Business Forum, both governments formally set a USD 10 billion bilateral trade target. TICGL's regression model suggests this is achievable by 2026-27 at the current ~8-10% annual growth trajectory — making this one of the most credible trade targets in Africa's bilateral landscape.
Linear regression model · ~8-10% p.a. growth · Cross-checked vs IMF, World Bank, TIC
~USD 10.22BBilateral Trade 2026↑ from USD 8.6B (2024)
~USD 5.60BIndia's Exports to TZ 2026↑ from USD 4.67B
~USD 4.62BTZ's Exports to India 2026↑ from USD 3.93B
~USD 4.50BIndian FDI in TZ 2026↑ from USD 3.74B
~TZS 25.5TTZ Trade Value in TZS 2026↑ from ~TZS 21.5T
↑ TOWARD USD 10B
Tanzania–India Trade Trajectory to 2026 (All Indicators)
USD Billions · Actual 2020-2024 · 2025-2026 Projected · With USD 10B target line
↑ GROWING
Trade Balance: India vs Tanzania
USD Billions · India favours export surplus · 2020-2026
Trade in TZS Equivalent (Trillions)
USD × TZS 2,500 · Bilateral total · 2020–2026
Indicator
2024 (Actual)
2025 (Estimate)
2026 (Projected)
Growth Driver
Bilateral Trade
USD 8.6B
~USD 9.50B
~USD 10.22B
~+8–10% p.a.
India's Exports to Tanzania
~USD 4.67B
~USD 5.20B
~USD 5.60B
Pharma, energy, machinery
Tanzania's Exports to India
~USD 3.93B
~USD 4.30B
~USD 4.62B
Gold, cashews, agri, avocado
Indian FDI in Tanzania
~USD 3.74B
~USD 4.20B
~USD 4.50B
Agro-processing, ICT, energy
TZS Trade Equivalent
~TZS 21.5T
~TZS 23.75T
~TZS 25.5T
Currency conversion at 2,500
Methodology: Linear regression on 2019–2025 data with cross-check against sector growth forecasts (IMF, World Bank, TIC). Exchange rate: USD 1 = TZS 2,500.
Section 08.1
High-Growth Priority Sectors
Three high-growth sectors identified at the July 2025 Tanzania-India Business Forum are expected to drive the next phase of growth. Energy is an emerging fourth pillar, with India's strong interest in Tanzania's world-class natural gas (LNG) reserves and biofuels sectors.
Priority Sector 01
💊 Pharmaceuticals
Tanzania is being positioned as a regional pharma manufacturing hub for East, Central and Southern Africa under the October 2023 Strategic Partnership. India — the world's pharmacy — brings manufacturing expertise; Tanzania offers strategic geography, port access, and a large regional market.
Target: Regional hub for ~300M+ population market
Priority Sector 02
🌾 Agro-Processing
Tanzania targets increasing local cashew nut processing from ~10% to 60% of total production — a transformation that could multiply export value five-fold. Pulses, avocados, and horticulture are additional fast-growing sub-sectors. India is the key buyer and potential technology partner for processing.
Target: 60% local cashew processing; avocado value chain
Priority Sector 03
💻 ICT & Fintech
Tech partnerships, fintech integration (including the Rupee-Shilling mechanism), digital infrastructure, and IIT Madras Zanzibar's STEM pipeline are converging to create a digital economy bridge. India's UPI experience and Tanzania's mobile money penetration create natural synergies.
IIT Zanzibar + Rupee-TZS fintech integration
⛽
Emerging 4th Pillar: Energy (LNG & Biofuels)
India has expressed strong interest in Tanzania's world-class natural gas (LNG) reserves in the Lindi and Mtwara regions. Tanzania holds one of Africa's largest proven gas reserves (~57 trillion cubic feet). Biofuels discussions are also ongoing. Energy could become the most transformational bilateral sector within a decade — and India's energy security needs make Tanzania's LNG strategically important.
Projected Contribution of Priority Sectors to Bilateral Trade Growth (2025–2026)
Estimated incremental contribution in USD Billions
📚 Research Sources & Data References
High Commission of India, Dar es SalaamMinistry of External Affairs India (MEA)Tanzania Investment Centre (TIC)OEC World Trade DataDGCI&S India (Trade Statistics)TanzaniaInvestChatham House AfricaORF India (Observer Research Foundation)World Bank Open DataIMF World Economic OutlookExim Bank IndiaMinistry of Trade TanzaniaIIT Madras Official MOU (July 2023)Tanzania-India Business Forum 2025 (July)TICGL Research Compilation (February 2026)
Tanzania–India: A Relationship Firing on All Cylinders
The Tanzania–India bilateral relationship has undergone a structural transformation over the past five years — evolving from a historically warm but relatively modest partnership into a full-spectrum Strategic Partnership backed by USD 8.6 billion in annual trade, USD 3.74 billion in cumulative Indian FDI, over USD 1.1 billion in development financing, and a deepening web of cooperation in defence, education, health, digital finance, and industry. The October 2023 Strategic Partnership declaration marks not an end but a beginning — of a more ambitious, institutionally grounded, and economically integrated relationship between two of the Indian Ocean world's most consequential nations.
USD 8.6B2024 Bilateral Trade · ↑263% since 2020
USD 3.74BIndian FDI in Tanzania · ↑50% since 2020
USD 1.1B+Lines of Credit · Tanzania = India's #1 African LOC recipient
~USD 10B2026 Trade Projection · Official joint target
📈
Trade at Historic High
Bilateral trade reached USD 8.6B in 2024 — a 263% surge since the COVID-era low of USD 2.37B in 2020-21. The USD 10B target is reachable by 2026 at current trajectory.
🏗️
Infrastructure at Scale
USD 1.1B+ in Indian Lines of Credit have delivered four major water projects, with a USD 500M ongoing project by Larsen & Toubro — making India Tanzania's most consequential development infrastructure partner.
🤝
Strategic Partnership: Real Substance
The October 2023 Strategic Partnership is not merely declaratory — it produced 15 concrete agreements covering Rupee trade, industrial parks, defence roadmaps, IIT Madras Zanzibar, and pharma manufacturing.
🌊
Maritime Security Partner
India-Tanzania-Mozambique trilateral maritime exercises (2022 & 2024) and India's gifting of defence equipment to TPDF show Tanzania as a genuine Indo-Pacific security partner, not just an economic ally.
🎓
Human Capital Investment
735 scholarships annually (ITEC + ICCR) plus IIT Madras Zanzibar — the world's first overseas IIT — position India as Tanzania's leading partner in STEM human capital development.
💱
Financial Architecture Shift
The Rupee-Shilling Vostro Account mechanism launched in October 2023 represents a structural shift — reducing dollar dependency, cutting transaction costs, and deepening financial integration for bilateral trade.
This report was researched and authored by TICGL's Economic Research Unit. The analysis draws on primary data from government sources, trade statistics, investment records, and field intelligence gathered across Tanzania and India.
BK
Chief Economist & Research Director
Dr. Bravious Felix Kahyoza
PhD · FMVA · CP3P
PhD EconomicsFMVA®CP3P™Chief Economist
Dr. Bravious Felix Kahyoza is the Chief Economist and Research Director at TICGL — Tanzania Investment and Consultant Group Ltd. A holder of a Doctor of Philosophy (PhD) in Economics, a Fellow of the Financial Modeling & Valuation Analyst designation (FMVA®), and a Certified Public Private Partnership Professional (CP3P™), Dr. Kahyoza brings deep expertise in macroeconomic analysis, bilateral trade modeling, investment policy, and financial valuation to TICGL's research programmes.
He leads TICGL's flagship economic research publications, including comprehensive bilateral relations reports, Tanzania's annual economic outlook, and the Tanzania Business Intelligence Dashboard. His research on Tanzania–India relations, Tanzania–China economic ties, and East African regional integration has informed government policy discussions and private sector strategy across the region.
Amran Bhuzohera serves as Senior Economist and Research Lead at TICGL's Economic Research Unit. He specialises in bilateral economic intelligence, trade data analysis, foreign direct investment flows, and sector-level economic research across Tanzania and the broader East African region.
As Research Lead on the Tanzania–India Relations report, Amran coordinated data collection from primary sources including the High Commission of India (Dar es Salaam), Tanzania Investment Centre (TIC), and international databases including OEC World Trade Data and DGCI&S India. He designed the trade projection model and led the sector-by-sector analysis of Indian FDI, Lines of Credit, and strategic cooperation areas. His work at TICGL bridges quantitative rigor with practical policy insight — making complex economic data accessible to investors, policymakers, and researchers.
TICGL Economic Research Unit — Tanzania Investment and Consultant Group Ltd
TICGL's Economic Research Unit produces Tanzania's most comprehensive bilateral economic intelligence, investment analysis, and business environment research. Our publications are used by governments, development finance institutions, private equity investors, multinational corporations, and academic researchers across Africa, Asia, and Europe. The Unit operates with strict methodological standards, drawing exclusively on verifiable primary and secondary data sources, applying econometric modeling, and subjecting all findings to peer review within the research team before publication.
📅 Est. Tanzania🌍 East Africa Focus📊 Data-Driven Research🔬 Peer-Reviewed🌐 ticgl.com📈 data.ticgl.com
📖 How to Cite This Report
Kahyoza, B.F. & Bhuzohera, A. (2026). Tanzania–India Relations: A Comprehensive Data-Driven Research Report (Updated & Integrated Edition, February 2026). TICGL Economic Research Unit — Tanzania Investment and Consultant Group Ltd. Retrieved from https://ticgl.com/tanzania-india-relations/
📢 Spread the Research
Share This Analysis
Help decision-makers, investors, and researchers across Africa and Asia access this intelligence
8+Sections
11+Charts
2026Projections
✏️ Default Share Text (click a platform to share)
📊 New Research: Tanzania–India bilateral trade hits USD 8.6B in 2024 — a 263% surge since 2020. Strategic Partnership declared Oct 2023. 15 agreements. IIT Madras Zanzibar. USD 10B target by 2026. Full data-driven report by @TICGL 👇
For LinkedIn
Tag colleagues in trade, investment, and East Africa policy. Use #TanzaniaIndia #IndiaAfrica to reach the right audience.
🐦
For X (Twitter)
Quote a key stat: "Tanzania-India trade hit USD 8.6B in 2024 — up 263% in 4 years" with the link. Data-driven tweets get high engagement.
📱
For WhatsApp & Telegram
Share to business groups, investment networks, and East Africa–South Asia community channels for maximum reach.
Access More TICGL Economic Intelligence
Join the TICGL Researcher Programme for exclusive access to full datasets, raw data exports, sector deep-dives, and Tanzania's most comprehensive Business Intelligence Dashboard.
How Global Economic Shocks Will Shape Tanzania's Economic Outlook Toward 2026 | TICGL
How Global Economic Shocks Will Shape Tanzania's Economic Outlook Toward 2026
Comprehensive Analysis Based on World Economic Forum Chief Economists' Outlook | January 2026
47%
Likelihood of Sovereign Debt Crisis
4.1
Years Behind in AI Adoption
$36.8B
External Debt (20% of GDP)
3.4M
Jobs at Risk from AI (10 years)
Introduction
As Tanzania approaches 2026, its economic trajectory is increasingly shaped by powerful global economic shocks emanating from financial markets, geopolitics, debt dynamics, and rapid technological change. According to the World Economic Forum's Chief Economists' Outlook (January 2026), the global economy is entering a period of heightened uncertainty that presents both significant opportunities and critical challenges for Tanzania's developing economy.
Key Findings
Debt Relief Potential: 54% of global economists expect US dollar depreciation, which could reduce Tanzania's $36.8 billion external debt burden by approximately $3.7 billion (10% depreciation scenario)
Trade Opportunities: Sustained US-China trade tensions (US tariffs on Chinese goods at 47.5%) create openings for Tanzania as an alternative supplier
Technology Gap: Sub-Saharan Africa expected to lag 4.1 years behind developed economies in realizing AI productivity gains
Employment Risk: 72% of economists expect job losses in the next 2 years, with 3.4 million Tanzanian jobs at risk over 10 years
1. Economic Risks Outlook
1.1 Asset Valuations and Market Impact
Asset Category
Expected Increase
Expected Decrease
Impact on Tanzania
US Dollar
20%
54%
Very High - Debt burden reduction
Gold
46%
54%
Medium - Tanzania is 4th largest African producer
AI Stocks (US)
40%
52%
Medium - Technology price impacts
Cryptocurrencies
38%
62%
Low - Limited exposure
US Dollar Depreciation Impact Analysis
Positive Impact
External debt servicing becomes easier - potential $3.7B real value reduction
Tourism Boost
Dollar-priced tourism services more affordable (17.5% of GDP)
Negative Impact
Import costs increase (Trade deficit: $5.8B in 2024)
1.2 Debt and Macroeconomic Crisis Risks
Critical Debt Situation
Global context: Global public debt reached a record $102 trillion in 2024, projected to rise to 100% of GDP by 2029. Developing countries' debt levels are growing twice as fast as developed economies.
Public Debt
$68.5 billion (38% of GDP)
External Debt
$36.8 billion (20% of GDP)
Debt Service
35% of government revenues
Tax-to-GDP Ratio
12.3% (below 15% minimum)
Macroeconomic Crisis Probabilities for Tanzania (2026)
Sovereign Debt Crisis
47%
Currency Crisis
41%
Banking Crisis
24%
Corporate Debt Crisis
21%
1.3 Debt Management Strategies (Next 5 Years)
Strategy
Likelihood (Emerging Markets)
Implications for Tanzania
Economic Growth
64%
Best Path - Target 7-8% annual growth to outpace debt
Higher Inflation
61%
TZS will lose purchasing power; reduced real debt burden
Tax Increases
53%
Direct taxes expected to increase; need to reach 15% tax-to-GDP
Debt Restructuring
53%
High probability of needing to renegotiate terms
Cut Public Spending
38%
Public services will be strained
1.4 Government Spending Priorities Evolution
Sector
Expected Change (Emerging Markets)
Current Investment Need
Priority Level
Defense
74% increase
~2.1% of GDP ($1.5B annually)
Medium-High
Digital Infrastructure
71% increase
$3-5B over 5 years
Critical
Energy
43% increase
$8-10B to reach 5,000 MW by 2030
Critical
Health
58% no change
Currently 3.6% of GDP (below WHO 5% minimum)
Constrained
Education
32% increase
3.4% of GDP (below UNESCO 4-6%)
Critical
Environmental Protection
61% expect decrease
Climate finance needed
At Risk
1.5 Inflation Outlook
Regional Inflation Pressure
89% of economists expect moderate to high inflation in Sub-Saharan Africa
Current Tanzania inflation: 4.9% (December 2025)
Food inflation: 5.7% (38.5% weight in CPI)
Transport inflation: 6.2% (14.3% weight in CPI)
TZS depreciation: 5.3% vs USD in 2025
Weather Variability
2024/25 drought reduced maize production by 18%
Import Dependency
25% of food consumed is imported
Energy Costs
Petroleum products: 15% of import bill
Electricity Tariffs
Increased 7% in 2025
2. Trade and Investment Outlook
2.1 Global Trade Restructuring
US-China Trade Context
The US-China trade truce (November 1, 2025) maintains a 10% "reciprocal" tariff but average US tariffs on Chinese goods remain at 47.5% (up from 20.7% in January 2025). This creates significant opportunities for alternative suppliers.
Trade Policy Area
Expected Change
Strategic Implication for Tanzania
US-China Tariffs
64% no change
Sustained opportunity to become alternative supplier
Marketing: Global campaign, diversify source markets to Asia ($200M)
Product Diversification: Beach tourism, cultural circuits, MICE facilities ($350M)
Expected Outcome: Tourist arrivals from 1.8M to 3.5M; tourism contribution from 17.5% to 22% of GDP
4.3 Infrastructure Investment ($12B over 4 years)
Infrastructure Investment Allocation
Energy: $5 billion
42%
Target: Increase capacity from 1,606 MW to 4,200 MW
Transport: $4.5 billion
38%
Complete 3,000 km paved roads, expand SGR, upgrade ports
Digital Infrastructure: $1.5 billion
12%
Fiber network 12K to 30K km; 4G/5G coverage 48% to 85%
Water & Sanitation: $1 billion
8%
Serve additional 8M people; increase sanitation 32% to 55%
4.4 Long-Term Priorities (2026-2035)
AI and Digital Transformation ($8B over 10 years)
Phase
Period
Investment
Key Initiatives
Phase 1: Foundation
2026-2028
$2B
• Nationwide fiber to all districts
• 95% 4G, 60% 5G coverage
• 3 hyperscale data centers
• Train 5,000 AI specialists
• Pilot projects in agriculture, health, education
Phase 2: Scaling
2029-2032
$3.5B
• Train 50,000 AI/data professionals
• AI literacy for 2M workers
• 5 more data centers
• AI deployment to 1M farmers
• AI adoption in 500 factories
Phase 3: Maturity
2033-2035
$2.5B
• Support 1,000 AI startups
• Smart cities (Dar, Dodoma, Arusha)
• AI export industry
• World-class AI research universities
Expected AI Outcomes by 2035
AI contributes 8-10% to GDP growth
50% of workforce AI-literate
Technology exports: $2 billion annually
Position as East African AI hub
Education and Skills Transformation ($6B over 10 years)
Basic Education Reform ($2.5B): Eliminate 85,000 teacher shortage; introduce coding from primary; 75% secondary pass rate by 2030
STEM Education ($1.5B): Increase STEM graduates from 8,000 to 50,000/year; 10 new technical colleges
Vocational Training ($1B): Modernize VETA for Industry 4.0; 50 new centers; train 500,000 youth
Adult Reskilling ($1B): Digital literacy for 5M adults; reskill 500,000 in at-risk occupations
Tanzania has only three years to lay foundations that will determine its economic trajectory for decades. The decisions made before and through 2026 will be pivotal in determining whether global economic turbulence becomes a catalyst for transformation or a constraint on future prosperity.
Major Risks Facing Tanzania
Debt Crisis
47% likelihood of sovereign debt crisis
Technology Gap
4.1 years behind in AI adoption
Employment Disruption
3.4M jobs at risk from AI over 10 years
Inflation Pressure
89% expect moderate to high inflation
Regional Growth Lag
Only 13% expect strong SSA growth
Skills Gap
Need 6x increase in STEM graduates
Key Opportunities Available
Trade Restructuring
Alternative supplier opportunities from US-China tensions
Regional Integration
69% expect increase in regional trade agreements
Investment Diversion
52% expect FDI decrease to China - opportunity for Tanzania
Digital Economy
Fintech and digital services rapid growth
Natural Resources
Gold, rare earths, agriculture in high demand
Dollar Depreciation
54% expect decline - reduces debt burden
Two Paths Forward
Path A: Falling Behind
Path B: Breaking Through
Fails to address debt burden → Fiscal crisis
Delays AI adoption → Technology gap widens
Neglects education → Youth unemployment crisis
Business as usual → 4-5% growth, insufficient jobs
Outcome: Growing inequality, social instability, development stagnation
This analysis is based on data from the World Economic Forum Chief Economists' Outlook (January 2026), Tanzania National Bureau of Statistics, Bank of Tanzania, International Monetary Fund, World Bank, and African Development Bank. All data is current as of January 2026.
Report Prepared: January 2026 | For: Policy Makers, Investors, Business Leaders, and Development Partners
Economic Stability, Resilience, and Growth Momentum
By Amran Bhuzohera
Tanzania’s economy in 2025 continues to display strong resilience amid a complex post-election environment and global uncertainties. Data from the Bank of Tanzania (BoT) and National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) highlight a broadly stable macroeconomic landscape marked by low inflation, steady currency appreciation, manageable public debt, and rising foreign investment flows. The combination of policy discipline, export recovery, and domestic demand expansion positions Tanzania as one of East Africa’s most stable economies heading into 2026.
1. Inflation: Controlled and Predictable
Headline inflation remained within the 3–5% target range, rising slightly to 3.5% in October 2025 from 3.4% the previous month. The modest uptick reflects higher food prices (7.4%) partially offset by declining fuel and energy costs (–1.4% monthly).
Indicator
Oct 2024
Oct 2025
Annual Change (%)
Notes
Headline Inflation
3.0
3.5
+0.5
Stable, low inflation
Food Inflation
7.0
7.4
+0.4
Driven by cereals and vegetables
Core Inflation
2.2
2.1
–0.1
Stable non-food prices
Energy/Fuel Inflation
3.7
–1.4 (monthly)
—
Lower global oil prices
Key takeaway: Inflation stability preserves purchasing power and encourages investor confidence. Food inflation remains a challenge, particularly for low-income households, but easing monthly trends suggest temporary relief.
2. Exchange Rate and External Sector: Strong Shilling, Narrowing Deficit
The Tanzanian shilling appreciated 9.4% year-on-year to an average of TZS 2,471.69/USD in September 2025, reversing the 10.1% depreciation of 2024. This reflects robust export performance—especially gold, cashews, and cereals—and increasing tourism earnings.
Indicator
Sep 2025
Change
Economic Implication
Exchange rate (TZS/USD)
2,471.69
+9.4% YoY
Strengthens import affordability
Current Account Balance
–1.5% of GDP
Narrowed
Boosted by tourism +15.8%
Foreign Reserves
USD 6.66B
5.8 months import cover
Ample external buffer
Services Receipts
USD 6.97B
+4.6%
Tourism recovery
Key takeaway: Currency strength has improved debt servicing capacity and dampened imported inflation, anchoring macroeconomic stability.
3. Public Debt: Sustainable and Development-Focused
Tanzania’s total national debt stood at TZS 127.47 trillion (USD 50.77 billion) as of September 2025, with external debt accounting for 70.6%. The debt composition remains largely concessional and directed toward infrastructure, energy, and social services.
Category
Amount
Share (%)
Key Notes
Total Debt
TZS 127,474.5B
100
Up 1.4% MoM
External Debt
USD 35.44B
69.8
77.5% held by central government
Domestic Debt
TZS 37,459B
30.2
73% bonds, 27% T-bills
USD Share (of External)
66%
—
FX exposure risk
Debt/GDP Ratio
40.1%
—
Below EAC 50% ceiling
Key takeaway: Debt levels are sustainable and aligned with regional thresholds. An appreciating shilling reduces repayment costs for USD-denominated debt, though diversification of borrowing remains essential.
4. Fiscal and Monetary Position: Discipline Anchored in Stability
Fiscal operations show a TZS 618.5 billion deficit, financed mainly through domestic bonds and concessional loans. Revenue performance reached 87.2% of target while expenditure execution stood at 71.9%. The BoT policy rate remained at 6.0%, supporting 12% private sector credit growth.
Fiscal Indicator
Value
Performance
Revenue (collected)
TZS 2,728.1B
87.2% of target
Expenditure
TZS 3,346.6B
71.9% executed
Deficit
TZS 618.5B
3.5% of GDP (approx.)
Policy Rate
6.0%
Accommodative stance
Credit Growth
12%
Driven by SMEs and trade
Key takeaway: Fiscal discipline, supported by strong domestic debt markets, has preserved macroeconomic credibility without crowding out private credit.
5. Sectoral Outlook: Growth Catalysts Emerging
The 2025 outlook projects GDP growth between 5.5% and 6.5%, supported by agriculture, tourism, and manufacturing. Infrastructure investment and digital transformation remain key growth levers under the FYDP III framework.
Sector
Contribution to GDP
2025 Performance
Outlook
Agriculture
25–30%
Food inflation pressure but export resilience
Needs irrigation, value addition
Tourism
10–12%
Arrivals +15.8%
Post-election rebound
Manufacturing
8–10%
Stable input costs
Expansion via local supply chains
Mining
7–9%
Gold exports +12.8%
Sustained global demand
Key takeaway: Structural investments in transport, power, and agriculture will sustain growth momentum into 2026, while diversification remains essential to shield against external shocks.
6. Zanzibar: Parallel Progress
Zanzibar’s economy mirrors mainland stability, posting 3.5% inflation and a USD 836.6 million current account surplus (+34.7%), driven by tourism (+28.2% arrivals). Fiscal discipline and service exports remain key strengths.
Conclusion
Tanzania’s 2025 economic story is one of stability amid transition. Inflation remains low, the shilling is strong, and debt sustainability is intact. However, persistent food inflation and USD exposure warrant close monitoring. Continued structural reforms, SME incentives, and agricultural modernization under the FYDP III will determine whether Tanzania sustains its 6%+ growth trajectory and advances toward upper-middle-income status by 2030.
Authored by Amran Bhuzohera, this paper presents a timely analysis of the economic, policy, and social implications of election-related disruptions in Tanzania. It explores how political instability and electoral uncertainty influence investment confidence, fiscal stability, business continuity, and macroeconomic performance.
Drawing from historical data covering elections between 1995 and 2020, the study highlights the recurring link between election periods and economic slowdowns, where investor hesitation, fiscal reallocations, and heightened political tension create short-term volatility across key sectors.
Key Findings
GDP growth deceleration: Average national growth declines by 1.5–2.2 percentage points during election years, driven by disruptions in trade, infrastructure projects, and tourism.
Investment slowdown: Private investment drops by 8–12% on average in the six months preceding elections, with foreign investors adopting a wait-and-see stance.
Fiscal imbalance: Increased government expenditure on administrative and security functions leads to temporary budget reallocation, limiting funds for development projects.
Inflationary pressure: Election-related uncertainty leads to short-term inflation spikes of 1.5–2%, particularly in food and transport prices.
Policy discontinuity: Changes in leadership priorities often delay or reverse major public-private initiatives, reducing the predictability of long-term economic programs.
Broader Implications
The paper argues that predictable political environments and transparent electoral processes are vital to sustaining Tanzania’s economic transformation agenda under FYDP III and Vision 2050. Political calm fosters confidence among local and foreign investors, while election disruptions can erode progress in industrialization, SME growth, and infrastructure modernization.
Policy Recommendations
Strengthen institutional safeguards to ensure fiscal discipline and continuity of economic programs before, during, and after elections.
Promote transparent electoral management through independent oversight and civic education to minimize disruptions.
Enhance public-private dialogue mechanisms to maintain investor confidence amid political transitions.
Develop contingency macroeconomic frameworks to manage volatility during election cycles.
Advance regional policy coordination under the EAC framework to mitigate cross-border effects of political disruptions.
Ultimately, the study underscores that stable governance and credible elections are as critical to economic performance as fiscal and industrial reforms. A well-managed democratic process is not only a political necessity but an economic imperative for sustainable development in Tanzania.
📘 Read the Full Discussion Paper: “Impacts of Election Disruptions and Tanzania: Economic and Policy Implications” Authored by Amran Bhuzohera Published by TICGL | Economic Research Centre 🌐 www.ticgl.com
Strong Growth, Low Inflation, but Trade and Budget Deficits Persist
Zanzibar’s economy showed resilience in 2024, with real GDP growth rising to 6.8%, up from 5.1% in 2023, driven primarily by tourism and infrastructure investments like the SGR and port upgrades. Tourist arrivals surged to 2.2 million in 2025, supporting the services sector, while FDI jumped by 28.3% to USD 1.72 billion, fueling construction. Inflation remained stable at 3.4% in June 2025, down from 6.1% a year earlier, well within the BoT's 3–5% target. On the fiscal front, domestic revenue reached TZS 874.9 billion, covering 95.6% of public income, though a TZS 248.5 billion budget deficit persists. In trade, Zanzibar posted a goods trade deficit of USD 309.2 million, as exports fell 11.9% (led by a 27.2% decline in cloves) while imports rose 8.4%. Meanwhile, the financial sector expanded with credit to the private sector growing by 23.5% and bank deposits increasing by 12.1%, signaling deepening financial inclusion despite high lending rates (15.12%).
1. Real Sector Performance (GDP Growth)
The real sector encompasses economic activities producing goods and services, with GDP growth reflecting Zanzibar’s economic vitality.
Real GDP Growth (2024):
Value: 6.8%, up from 5.1% in 2023.
Context: This aligns with earlier reports, such as a 7% growth in January–September 2024 and 7.2% in Q4 2024, driven by tourism and trade. The African Development Bank projects Zanzibar’s growth to exceed 6% in 2025, supported by tourism, construction, and real estate.
Drivers:
Industry Sector: Construction and manufacturing led growth, fueled by infrastructure projects like the Standard Gauge Railway (SGR) and port expansions. Construction benefits from public-private partnerships (PPPs) and foreign direct investment (FDI), with Tanzania’s FDI rising 28.3% to USD 1.72 billion in 2024.
Services Sector: Accommodation and food services, tied to tourism, were major contributors. Tourist arrivals reached 2,193,322 in 2025, up 10% from 1,994,242 in 2024, boosting hospitality. The Tanzania National Business Council projects tourism’s GDP contribution to reach 19.5% by 2025/26.
Implications: The 6.8% growth reflects Zanzibar’s economic resilience, driven by tourism and infrastructure. However, reliance on tourism (10% of GDP) and construction makes the economy vulnerable to external shocks, such as global tourism fluctuations or commodity price volatility. Diversification into manufacturing and agriculture, as outlined in Zanzibar’s USD 2 billion plan, is critical.
Comparison with Mainland Tanzania:
Mainland Tanzania grew at 5.6% in 2024, projected at 6% in 2025, driven by agriculture, finance, and construction. Zanzibar’s higher growth (6.8%) reflects its tourism-led economy, but its smaller economic base (contributing ~3% to Tanzania’s GDP) limits its overall impact.
2. Inflation Trends
Inflation measures the rate of price increases, affecting purchasing power and economic stability.
Headline Inflation:
12-Month Average (June 2025): 3.5%.
June 2025 (Monthly): 3.4%, down from 6.1% in June 2024.
Context: Inflation eased from 5.1% in 2024 and 6.9% in 2023, with February 2025 at 4.8%. The National Bureau of Statistics reported 3.3% inflation in June 2025, driven by food price increases (e.g., finger millet at 7.0%). Zanzibar’s inflation remains below the 5% medium-term target set by the Bank of Tanzania (BoT) and aligns with East African Community (EAC) criteria.
Drivers:
Stabilized Food Prices: Declining food inflation (5.3% in April 2025) reflects improved agricultural output and stable global commodity prices.
Controlled Non-Food Prices: Transport costs moderated due to stable fuel prices, with energy inflation at 7.3% in April 2025, down from 9.3% in 2024.
Implications: Low inflation (3.4%) supports consumer purchasing power and aligns with the BoT’s 3%–5% target under its 2025–2030 Strategic Plan. However, food price volatility (e.g., finger millet) poses risks, particularly for low-income households, given Zanzibar’s 26.4% poverty rate. Continued monetary policy prudence (6% Central Bank Rate) is essential.
Comparison with Mainland Tanzania:
Mainland Tanzania’s inflation was 3.2% in May 2025 and 3.1% in January 2025, slightly lower than Zanzibar’s 3.4%. Zanzibar’s higher inflation reflects its reliance on imported goods and tourism-driven demand.
3. Government Budgetary Operations (July 2024 – May 2025)
The government budget reflects fiscal policy, balancing revenues, grants, and expenditures to fund public services and development.
Revenues and Grants:
Total: TZS 914.7 billion.
Domestic Revenue: TZS 874.9 billion (95.6% of total).
Tax Revenue: TZS 796.6 billion (86.9% of total).
Non-Tax Revenue: TZS 78.3 billion (8.6% of total).
Grants: TZS 39.8 billion (4.4% of total).
Context: Strong revenue performance aligns with Mainland Tanzania’s TZS 2,339.7 billion tax collection in May 2025, 4.1% above target. Zanzibar’s tax revenue reflects improved administration and compliance, supported by digital systems like the Tanzania Instant Payment System (TIPS). Grants, including TZS 185 billion from China for health and economic cooperation, bolster fiscal space.
Implications: High domestic revenue (95.6%) reduces grant dependency, but low grant inflows (4.4%) limit funding for development projects. Enhanced tax mobilization, as per MKUMBI II reforms, is critical.
Expenditures:
Total: TZS 1,123.4 billion.
Recurrent Expenditure: TZS 744.7 billion (66.3% of total).
Development Expenditure: TZS 378.7 billion (33.7% of total).
Context: Expenditure aligns with revenue, reflecting fiscal prudence, as noted in the BoT’s mid-year review. Development spending supports tourism (TZS 359.9 billion budget for 2025/26) and infrastructure (e.g., Dodoma Transport Project). Recurrent spending covers wages and public services, critical for Zanzibar’s 9.3% unemployment rate.
Implications: The high recurrent share (66.3%) limits development funding, necessitating expenditure rationalization to meet Vision 2050 goals (e.g., 90% electricity access).
Budget Deficit:
Deficit (Before Grants): TZS 248.5 billion.
Financing: Covered by domestic borrowing (e.g., TZS 625.5 billion mobilized in April 2025, including TZS 421.7 billion in Treasury bonds) and grants.
Context: Public debt remains sustainable with a moderate risk of distress, per the IMF’s 2024 Debt Sustainability Analysis. Zanzibar’s deficit aligns with Mainland Tanzania’s TZS 270.2 billion deficit in May 2025.
Implications: Domestic borrowing supports fiscal needs but increases debt servicing costs (TZS 640 billion in April 2025). Grants and FDI (USD 1.72 billion in 2024) are vital to reduce borrowing reliance.
4. Trade Performance (Goods Only)
Trade performance reflects Zanzibar’s external sector, focusing on goods exports and imports, with services (e.g., tourism) covered separately.
Total Exports (Goods):
Value: USD 150.3 million, down from USD 170.6 million in 2024 (-11.9%).
Composition:
Cloves: USD 66.4 million (44.2% of exports), down from USD 91.2 million (-27.2%).
Seafood & Other Goods: USD 60.4 million (40.2% of exports).
Manufactured Goods: USD 23.5 million (15.6% of exports).
Context: The decline in clove exports reflects global market downturns, as noted in earlier reports. Seafood and manufactured goods growth aligns with diversification efforts under Zanzibar’s USD 2 billion plan. Total Tanzania exports (including Mainland) reached USD 16.1 billion in 2024, led by gold and tourism.
Implications: The 11.9% export drop, particularly in cloves, strains foreign exchange earnings, given cloves’ 90% production on Pemba. Diversification into seafood and manufacturing is promising but requires market expansion.
Total Imports (Goods):
Value: USD 459.5 million, up from USD 423.7 million in 2024 (+8.4%).
Composition:
Capital Goods: USD 222.5 million (48.4% of imports).
Intermediate Goods: USD 141.4 million (30.8% of imports).
Consumer Goods: USD 95.6 million (20.8% of imports).
Context: Import growth reflects infrastructure projects (e.g., SGR, port expansions) and consumer demand, consistent with Mainland Tanzania’s capital goods imports. Zanzibar’s reliance on imported staples and petroleum products persists.
Implications: Rising imports, driven by capital goods, support industrialization but widen the trade deficit, straining reserves (USD 5,307.7 million, 4.3 months of import cover).
Trade Deficit:
Value: USD 309.2 million, widened from USD 253.1 million in 2024 (imports USD 423.7 million – exports USD 170.6 million).
Context: The deficit reflects falling clove exports and rising capital goods imports, consistent with Tanzania’s overall current account deficit of USD 2,117.6 million.
Implications: The widened deficit pressures the Tanzanian Shilling (8% depreciation in 2023) and reserves. Export promotion (e.g., seafood, manufactured goods) and tourism (USD 3,934.5 million in receipts) are critical to offset deficits.
5. Financial Sector Performance
The financial sector supports economic activity through credit provision and deposit mobilization, critical for private sector growth.
Credit to Private Sector (June 2025):
Value: TZS 747.7 billion, up 23.5% from June 2024.
Sectors:
Trade: 27.8% (TZS 207.9 billion).
Building & Construction: 20.2% (TZS 151.0 billion).
Personal Loans: 13.8% (TZS 103.2 billion).
Transport & Communication: 10.7% (TZS 80.0 billion).
Context: The 23.5% growth exceeds Mainland Tanzania’s 12.8% private sector credit growth in January 2025, driven by agriculture and SMEs. Zanzibar’s credit growth reflects tourism and construction demand, supported by the BoT’s 6% Central Bank Rate and TIPS (453.7 million transactions in 2024).
Implications: Robust credit growth (23.5%) supports SMEs and infrastructure, aligning with financial inclusion goals (87% adult target by 2030). However, the high trade and construction share risks overexposure if tourism slows.
Deposit Mobilization:
Value: TZS 1,185.4 billion, up 12.1% from TZS 1,057.6 billion in June 2024.
Context: Growth aligns with Tanzania’s banking sector stability, with a 3.6% non-performing loan ratio in Q1 2025, below the 5% threshold. Mobile money transactions (TZS 198,859 billion in 2024) boost deposits.
Implications: Strong deposit growth (12.1%) reflects financial deepening, but high lending rates (15.12% in January 2025) may constrain borrowing. Digital platforms like TIPS enhance inclusion, supporting Vision 2050.
Summary Table: Key Economic Indicators for Zanzibar (Year Ending June 2025)
Indicator
Value
Real GDP Growth (2024)
6.8%
Headline Inflation (June 2025)
3.4% (avg: 3.5%)
Domestic Revenue (TZS)
874.9 billion
Total Spending (TZS)
1,123.4 billion
Exports (Goods, USD)
150.3 million
Imports (Goods, USD)
459.5 million
Trade Deficit (Goods, USD)
309.2 million
Credit to Private Sector (TZS)
747.7 billion
Deposits in Banks (TZS)
1,185.4 billion
Key Takeaways and Policy Implications
Robust GDP Growth:
Zanzibar’s 6.8% growth in 2024, driven by tourism and construction, outpaces Mainland Tanzania (5.6%). Tourism (2.2 million arrivals) and infrastructure (e.g., SGR) are key drivers, but diversification into manufacturing and agriculture is needed to reduce tourism dependency (10% of GDP).
Policy: Implement Zanzibar’s USD 2 billion diversification plan to boost seafood and manufactured exports, aligning with Vision 2050.
Stable Inflation:
Inflation at 3.4% (June 2025) supports purchasing power, driven by stable food and fuel prices. However, food price volatility (e.g., 7.0% for finger millet) risks impacting the 26.4% poverty rate.
Policy: Enhance agricultural productivity and supply chain resilience to mitigate food price shocks, as per the Second Agriculture Sector Development Program.
Fiscal Prudence:
Strong domestic revenue (TZS 874.9 billion) reduces grant reliance, but the TZS 248.5 billion deficit requires sustained borrowing and grants. Development spending (33.7%) supports growth but is constrained by recurrent costs (66.3%).
Policy: Rationalize recurrent expenditure and leverage FDI (USD 1.72 billion in 2024) to fund infrastructure and tourism.
Trade Challenges:
The USD 309.2 million trade deficit, driven by a 27.2% drop in clove exports and 8.4% import rise, pressures reserves. Tourism receipts (USD 3,934.5 million) offset some losses, but goods exports need boosting.
Policy: Promote clove market recovery and expand seafood and manufacturing exports through trade agreements (e.g., AfCFTA).
Financial Sector Strength:
Credit growth (23.5%) and deposit mobilization (12.1%) reflect financial deepening, supported by digital payments (TIPS) and a stable banking sector (3.6% NPL ratio). High lending rates (15.12%) and trade/construction exposure pose risks.
Policy: Reduce lending rates and enhance SME financing, as per the BoT’s 2025–2030 plan, to sustain inclusion and growth.
Economic Context:
Regional Role: Zanzibar’s tourism and trade hub status supports growth, but its small GDP share (~3% of Tanzania’s USD 105.1 billion in 2022) limits impact.
Risks: Global commodity price volatility, tourism seasonality, and shilling depreciation (8% in 2023) pose challenges.
Opportunities: Vision 2050, MKUMBI II reforms, and digital financial inclusion (87% target) offer pathways to a USD 1 trillion economy.