How large is Tanzania's external debt in 2026?

Tanzania's external debt stock (public and private) stood at USD 36,446.8 million at end-May 2026, of which 81.1 percent was public debt and the remainder private-sector external debt.

Who are Tanzania's biggest external creditors?

Multilateral institutions such as the World Bank and African Development Bank hold 57.5 percent of Tanzania's external debt, followed by commercial lenders at 36.4 percent, bilateral creditors at 4.3 percent, and export credit agencies at 1.8 percent.

What is Tanzania's external debt used for?

The largest uses of disbursed external debt are balance-of-payments and budget support (21.8 percent) and transport and telecommunication (21.8 percent), followed by social welfare and education (19.0 percent) and energy and mining (13.1 percent).

What currencies make up Tanzania's external debt?

The US dollar accounts for 62.9 percent of Tanzania's disbursed outstanding external debt, followed by the Euro at 15.6 percent, other currencies at 15.6 percent, and the Chinese Yuan at 5.8 percent.

How much external debt service did Tanzania pay in May 2026?

Tanzania paid USD 189.4 million in external debt service in May 2026, of which USD 140 million was principal repayment, against new disbursements of USD 125.9 million in the same month.

What is Zanzibar's inflation rate in 2026?

Zanzibar's headline inflation rose to 5.5 percent in May 2026, from 4.2 percent a year earlier, driven mainly by higher food prices (9.9%) and rising transport costs (5.1%) linked to global fuel prices.

Does Zanzibar have a current account surplus?

Yes. Zanzibar's current account surplus grew 21.2 percent to USD 864.8 million in the year ending May 2026, up from USD 713.6 million a year earlier, driven mainly by strong tourism receipts and clove exports.

How much revenue did Zanzibar's government collect in May 2026?

Zanzibar's government resource envelope reached TZS 133.3 billion in May 2026, equivalent to 61.7 percent of the monthly target, comprising TZS 129.5 billion in domestic revenue and TZS 3.8 billion in grants.

How important are clove exports to Zanzibar's economy?

Clove exports surged to an estimated USD 41.5 million in the year ending May 2026, more than twelvefold higher than the prior year, making cloves Zanzibar's single largest export earner and the main driver of goods export growth.

How much has tourism grown in Zanzibar?

International tourist arrivals to Zanzibar rose 21 percent to 947,169 in the year ending May 2026, underpinning a 21.0 percent increase in services receipts to USD 1,572.5 million.

What is Tanzania's largest services export earner?

Travel (tourism) is Tanzania's largest services export earner, generating USD 4,419.1 million in receipts in the year ending May 2026, up 9.5 percent, followed by transport services at USD 3,146.3 million, up 16.0 percent.

How much did Tanzania pay for services imports in 2026?

Tanzania's services import payments totalled USD 3,370.1 million in the year ending May 2026, up 8.3 percent, driven mainly by a 17.9 percent rise in freight (transport) payments linked to elevated global shipping costs.

Is Tanzania's services trade balance positive or negative?

Tanzania runs a services trade surplus. In the year ending May 2026, services receipts of USD 8,051.5 million exceeded services payments of USD 3,370.1 million, producing a net services account surplus of USD 4,681.4 million.

How many tourists visited Tanzania in the year ending May 2026?

International tourist arrivals rose 5.9 percent to 2,298,900 in the year ending May 2026, supporting a 9.5 percent increase in travel receipts to USD 4,419.1 million.

How much revenue did Tanzania's central government collect in April 2026?

Tanzania's central government collected TZS 3,111.97 billion in April 2026, equivalent to 107.2 percent of the TZS 2,902.66 billion target, driven mainly by taxes on imports and income tax.

How much did Tanzania's central government spend in April 2026?

Total central government expenditure (cheques issued) was TZS 3,457.22 billion in April 2026, against an estimate of TZS 4,139.26 billion, equivalent to 83.5 percent budget execution, with development expenditure significantly under-executed at 52.5 percent of target.

What is Tanzania's largest source of central government tax revenue?

In April 2026, income tax was Tanzania's largest tax revenue source at TZS 849.32 billion, followed closely by taxes on imports at TZS 1,060.67 billion, which was the single largest revenue line overall.

How much of Tanzania's central government revenue is tax revenue?

In April 2026, tax revenue of TZS 2,690.63 billion made up about 86.5 percent of central government revenue of TZS 3,111.97 billion, with non-tax revenue of TZS 421.34 billion making up the remainder.

What is Tanzania's cumulative central government revenue for FY2025/26 so far?

For the period July 2025 to April 2026, central government revenue reached TZS 33,294.80 billion (actual), against a full-year budget of TZS 36,857.73 billion, and above the ten-month estimate of TZS 31,402.19 billion.

What are Tanzania's main economic policy gaps delaying the $1 trillion vision?

The five critical policy gaps are: (1) a narrow tax base with tax-to-GDP at 13.1% vs the 18% needed, (2) private sector crowding-out by government borrowing and SOE dominance, (3) slow industrialisation with manufacturing at only 8.1% of GDP, (4) an informal economy comprising 45–55% of economic activity, and (5) a wage bill growing faster than development expenditure.

When will Tanzania realistically reach $1 trillion GDP?

TICGL's central estimate is 2058–2062 — approximately 8 to 12 years after the Dira 2050 target. At current 5.9% real growth, the milestone arrives around 2065. Under an accelerated 8% reform scenario, the timeline advances to 2054–2056.

What is Tanzania's Dira 2050?

Dira 2050 is Tanzania's National Development Vision targeting a $1 trillion GDP, $7,000 per capita income, and upper-middle-income status by 2050, built on three pillars: a strong economy, human capability, and environmental sustainability.

#EconomicGrowth - TICGL | Tanzania Investment and Consultant Group Ltd

Executive Summary

Tanzania's external debt in one page

Tanzania's external debt stock (public and private) eased slightly to USD 36,446.8 million at end-May 2026, from USD 36,506.1 million in April, as principal repayments (USD 140 million) outpaced new disbursements (USD 125.9 million). Public debt makes up 81.1 percent of the total, with central government the dominant on-shore borrower. Multilateral institutions remain by far the largest creditor group at 57.5 percent, ahead of commercial lenders at 36.4 percent. By use, balance-of-payments/budget support and transport & telecommunication together absorb 43.6 percent of disbursed debt, while the US dollar still accounts for nearly two-thirds of currency exposure — though that share has fallen almost 4 percentage points in a year as the portfolio diversifies.

USD 29,480.8m

Central government borrowing

USD 6,558.9m

Private-sector external debt

USD 20,946.3m

Owed to multilateral creditors

USD 13,279.7m

Owed to commercial lenders

USD 1,891.0m

Total external debt arrears

Companion Reading

What's Next for Tanzania's Economy? The Policy Gaps Keeping USD 1 Trillion Out of Reach by 2050

External financing choices — who lends, on what terms, and in what currency — are central to TICGL's 2050 growth-gap study. See how today's debt structure shapes tomorrow's fiscal space.

Read the full study →

Section 1

External debt stock by borrower category

Central government remains overwhelmingly the largest borrower of external debt, though its stock has eased slightly since late 2025 as repayments outpaced new drawdowns. Private-sector external borrowing, by contrast, has grown steadily and touched a 13-month high of USD 6,558.9 million in May 2026. Public corporations, which held a small legacy balance, had fully cleared their external debt by January 2026.

Disbursed external debt by borrower, trend

USD million, May 2025 – May 2026

Borrower share, May 2026

Percent of disbursed outstanding external debt

Disbursed external debt by borrower category (USD million)
Borrower	May-25	Nov-25	Apr-26	May-26p	Share May-26
Central government	27,047.6	29,030.3	29,589.6	29,480.8	81.8%
Private sector	5,851.2	5,645.8	6,519.0	6,558.9	18.2%
Public corporations	3.8	3.8	0.0	0.0	0.0%
Total disbursed external debt	32,902.6	34,679.9	36,108.6	36,039.7	100%

Source: Ministry of Finance and Bank of Tanzania (Table A10, item 3: Disbursed external debt by borrower category). p = provisional data.

Section 2

External debt stock by creditor category

Alongside who borrows, it matters just as much who lends. Multilateral institutions — the World Bank's IDA, the African Development Bank and the IMF among them — supply well over half of Tanzania's external financing, offering longer maturities and softer terms than commercial markets. Commercial lenders are the second-largest source, at over a third of the portfolio, while bilateral and export-credit lines play a comparatively small role.

External debt stock by creditor category

USD million — May-25, Apr-26 and May-26 compared

Creditor share, May 2026

Percent of total external debt stock (incl. interest arrears)

External debt stock by creditor category (USD million)
Creditor	May-25	Share	Apr-26r	Share	May-26p	Share
Multilateral	19,007.7	56.6%	20,950.1	57.4%	20,946.3	57.5%
o/w Disbursed outstanding debt (DOD)	18,973.9	—	20,926.4	—	20,922.6	—
o/w Interest arrears	33.8	—	23.8	—	23.7	—
Commercial	12,086.2	36.0%	13,319.0	36.5%	13,279.7	36.4%
o/w Interest arrears	392.6	—	269.4	—	277.8	—
Bilateral	1,426.0	4.2%	1,561.5	4.3%	1,558.5	4.3%
Export credit	1,066.2	3.2%	675.6	1.9%	662.3	1.8%
Total external debt stock	33,586.1	100%	36,506.1	100%	36,446.8	100%

Source: Ministry of Finance and Bank of Tanzania (Tables 2.6.1 & 2.6.2). r = revised data; p = provisional data.

Concessionality check: With multilateral and bilateral creditors together holding 61.8 percent of external debt, Tanzania's external portfolio still leans concessional — a supportive factor for debt sustainability compared with peers more reliant on commercial Eurobond-style financing. Commercial creditors, however, carry the largest share of interest arrears (see arrears section below).

Section 3

Disbursed outstanding debt by use of funds

Just over 43 percent of Tanzania's disbursed external debt has gone into balance-of-payments/budget support and transport & telecommunication infrastructure — the two largest single uses. Social welfare and education absorbs a further 19.0 percent, and energy & mining 13.1 percent, reflecting the government's continued emphasis on human capital and infrastructure-led growth.

Use of funds, percentage share — May 2026

Percent of disbursed outstanding external debt

Use of funds, absolute value trend

USD million — top four uses, May-25 vs May-26

Disbursed outstanding debt by use of funds — percentage share & USD value
Activity	May-25 (%)	Apr-26 (%)	May-26p (%)	USD million, May-26
BoP & budget support	20.7	21.9	21.8	7,873.7
Transport & telecommunication	21.6	21.8	21.8	7,864.3
Social welfare & education	20.4	18.9	19.0	6,849.5
Energy & mining	12.9	13.1	13.1	4,718.3
Real estate & construction	4.6	5.1	4.9	1,751.4
Agriculture	5.1	5.1	5.3	1,902.6
Finance & insurance	4.2	4.3	4.3	1,545.5
Industries	3.6	3.7	3.7	1,320.2
Tourism	1.8	1.7	1.7	617.7
Other	5.2	4.4	4.4	1,596.7
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0	36,039.7

Source: Ministry of Finance and Bank of Tanzania (Table 2.6.3 & Table A10 item 5). p = provisional data.

Section 4

Disbursed outstanding debt by currency composition

The US dollar remains the anchor currency of Tanzania's external debt at 62.9 percent, though its share has slipped from 66.6 percent a year earlier. The Euro (15.6%) and Chinese Yuan (5.8%) make up the next largest exposures, while "other currencies" — including Special Drawing Rights and smaller bilateral-loan currencies — have nearly doubled their share, from 9.7 to 15.6 percent, pointing to gradual currency diversification in Tanzania's financing mix.

Currency composition, percentage share — May 2026

Percent of disbursed outstanding external debt

Currency composition, 12-month trend

USD million equivalent, May-25 to May-26

Disbursed outstanding debt by currency composition (% share)
Currency	May-25	Apr-26r	May-26p	Change (pp, YoY)
United States Dollar	66.6	63.0	62.9	-3.7
Euro	17.3	15.8	15.6	-1.7
Chinese Yuan	6.4	5.8	5.8	-0.6
Other currencies	9.7	15.4	15.6	+5.9
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0	—

Source: Ministry of Finance and Bank of Tanzania (Table 2.6.4 & Table A10 item 4). r = revised data; p = provisional data.

FX risk lens: A weaker US-dollar concentration is generally positive for currency-risk diversification, but the near-doubling of "other currencies" is worth monitoring closely — TICGL recommends investors and policymakers request a currency-level breakdown from the Ministry of Finance to confirm which specific currencies are driving this shift.

Section 5

Disbursements, debt service & arrears

New disbursements slowed to USD 125.9 million in May 2026 — mostly to central government — against USD 189.4 million in debt service (USD 140 million principal, USD 49.4 million interest). Net flows on external debt were negative for the month, consistent with the small decline in the overall stock. Total external debt arrears stood at USD 1,891.0 million, with commercial creditors accounting for the lion's share.

Disbursements vs. debt service

USD million, monthly, May 2025 – May 2026

External debt arrears by creditor — May 2026

USD million, principal vs. interest

External debt arrears by creditor category, May 2026 (USD million)
Creditor	Principal	Interest	Total	Share of total arrears
Commercial	1,175.7	277.8	1,453.5	76.9%
Bilateral	198.0	80.6	278.6	14.7%
Export credits	105.3	25.2	130.5	6.9%
Multilateral	4.9	23.7	28.6	1.5%
Total external debt arrears	1,483.9	407.1	1,891.0	100%

Source: Ministry of Finance and Bank of Tanzania (Table A10, items 6, 7 & 10).

TICGL Analysis

What this means for investors and policymakers

1. Concessional tilt supports sustainability

With 61.8% of external debt held by multilateral and bilateral lenders, Tanzania's average borrowing terms remain softer than a commercial-heavy portfolio — a structural cushion for debt-service costs even as global rates stay elevated.

2. Commercial arrears need attention

Commercial creditors hold just 36.4% of the debt stock but 76.9% of total arrears — signalling payment-timing strain specifically on commercial obligations that warrants closer cash-flow and hedging management.

3. Currency diversification is underway

The US-dollar share has fallen nearly 4 percentage points in a year. Combined with a strengthening shilling (+3.02% y/y against the dollar), this modestly eases near-term FX-translation risk on debt service.

TICGL Economic

Related TICGL insights & tools

Continue exploring Tanzania's public finances and economy with TICGL's research library, live dashboards and researcher programme.

Full Report

Tanzania Economic Review — June 2026 (Full Analysis)

Tanzania Government Domestic Debt by Creditor Category

What's Next for Tanzania's Economy? Policy Gaps to 2050

Is Tanzania's Economy Growing?

Opportunities and Risks of Doing Business in Tanzania in 2026

Why Tanzania's Growth Has Not Been Sufficiently Inclusive

Muhtasari kwa Kiswahili

Deni la Nje la Tanzania — Mkopaji, Matumizi na Sarafu, Mei 2026

Deni la nje la Tanzania (Serikali na sekta binafsi) lilifikia dola za Marekani milioni 36,446.8 mwishoni mwa Mei 2026, likishuka kidogo kutoka milioni 36,506.1 mwezi Aprili, kwani malipo ya mtaji (dola milioni 140) yalizidi mikopo mipya iliyopokewa (dola milioni 125.9). Asilimia 81.1 ya deni hili ni la Serikali, huku Serikali Kuu ikiwa mkopaji mkubwa zaidi (dola milioni 29,480.8), na sekta binafsi ikiwa na dola milioni 6,558.9.

Kwa upande wa wakopeshaji, taasisi za kimataifa (multilateral) kama Benki ya Dunia na Benki ya Maendeleo Afrika zinashikilia asilimia 57.5 ya deni la nje, zikifuatiwa na wakopeshaji wa kibiashara (asilimia 36.4), wakopeshaji wa nchi kwa nchi (bilateral, asilimia 4.3), na mikopo ya "export credit" (asilimia 1.8). Deni hili limetumika zaidi kwenye misaada ya bajeti na urari wa malipo nje (asilimia 21.8), usafirishaji na mawasiliano (asilimia 21.8), ustawi wa jamii na elimu (asilimia 19.0), na nishati na madini (asilimia 13.1).

Kwa sarafu, dola ya Marekani inaendelea kutawala kwa asilimia 62.9 ya deni la nje, ikiwa imeshuka kutoka asilimia 66.6 mwaka mmoja uliopita, huku sarafu nyingine (zisizo dola, euro au yuan) zikiongezeka kwa kasi kutoka asilimia 9.7 hadi asilimia 15.6 — ikionesha mwelekeo wa kutafuta vyanzo mbalimbali vya fedha. Malimbikizo ya madeni ya nje (arrears) yalifikia dola milioni 1,891.0, ambapo asilimia 76.9 ni ya wakopeshaji wa kibiashara pekee — eneo linalohitaji usimamizi makini wa fedha.

Maana yake: Muundo huu wa deni la nje — unaotawaliwa na wakopeshaji wa masharti nafuu (concessional) — ni jambo jema kwa uwezo wa Tanzania wa kulipa madeni yake, ingawa malimbikizo makubwa kwa wakopeshaji wa kibiashara na ongezeko la sarafu mbalimbali ni maeneo ambayo TICGL/TERI inapendekeza kufuatiliwa kwa karibu.

Executive Summary

Zanzibar's economy in May 2026, at a glance

Zanzibar's headline inflation rose to 5.5 percent in May 2026, from 4.2 percent a year earlier, as food prices (up 9.9% y/y) and fuel-linked transport costs (up 5.1% y/y) outweighed easing pressure elsewhere in the basket. On the fiscal side, the government collected TZS 133.3 billion against a monthly target of TZS 216.0 billion (61.7% achievement), while a TZS 309 billion expenditure programme — nearly 60 percent of it development spending — produced a TZS 175.7 billion deficit financed domestically. The external sector was the standout performer: Zanzibar's current account surplus grew 21.2 percent to USD 864.8 million in the year ending May 2026, powered by a 21 percent jump in tourist arrivals and an extraordinary clove-export boom that lifted goods exports more than twofold.

9.9%

Food inflation, May-26

2.1%

Non-food inflation, May-26

USD 1,639.7m

Exports of goods & services

USD 785.2m

Imports of goods & services

USD 41.5m

Clove export value, 2026

Companion Reading

What's Next for Tanzania's Economy? The Policy Gaps Keeping USD 1 Trillion Out of Reach by 2050

Zanzibar's tourism-and-agriculture-led growth model is a useful case study within TICGL's broader 2050 growth-gap analysis — see what it will take to scale this success nationally.

Read the full study →

Section 3.1

Inflation: food and transport push prices higher

Zanzibar's headline inflation climbed to 5.5 percent in May 2026, up from 5.0 percent in April and 4.2 percent a year earlier — moving further from the very low readings seen in mid-2025. Food inflation eased slightly from April's 10.1 percent but, at 9.9 percent, remains the dominant driver, while non-food inflation has been trending up as fuel costs pass through into transport (5.1%) and restaurant & accommodation prices (7.4%).

Headline, food & non-food inflation

Percent, year-on-year — the three most recent readings

Inflation by CPI group — May 2026

Annual % change, all 13 basket groups

Zanzibar CPI by group (weight %, annual inflation %)
Group (weight %)	May-25	Apr-26	May-26
Food & non-alcoholic beverages (41.9)	4.5	9.9	9.7
Housing, water, electricity, gas (25.8)	4.7	-0.4	1.2
Transport (9.1)	2.2	2.7	5.1
Furnishings & household maintenance (4.8)	4.0	2.2	2.4
Information & communication (4.2)	2.2	0.0	0.1
Clothing & footwear (6.3)	5.1	1.5	1.6
Restaurants & accommodation (1.4)	0.6	6.8	7.4
Alcoholic beverages & tobacco (0.2)	-0.2	4.4	4.3
Personal care & social protection (1.7)	4.9	1.9	0.8
Education (1.6)	3.8	1.5	0.3
Recreation, sport & culture (1.1)	4.6	2.6	2.6
Health (1.3)	1.5	0.6	0.6
Insurance & financial services (0.5)	0.0	0.0	0.0
Headline (100.0)	4.2	5.0	5.5
Food (40.5)	3.9	10.1	9.9
Non-food (59.5)	4.4	1.1	2.1

Source: Office of the Chief Government Statistician, Zanzibar (Table 3.1.1). Base: July 2022 = 100.

Section 3.2

Government budgetary operations: revenue lags target, deficit widens

Zanzibar's government resource envelope reached TZS 133.3 billion in May 2026 — just 61.7 percent of the monthly target — with domestic revenue of TZS 129.5 billion (69.9% of target) and TZS 3.8 billion in grants. Tax revenue supplied 90.5 percent of domestic revenue, while non-tax collections of TZS 12.4 billion reached only 63 percent of target. Total expenditure of TZS 309 billion — 59.6 percent of it development spending — outpaced resources, producing an overall deficit of TZS 175.7 billion financed through domestic borrowing.

Government resources — May 2026

TZS billion, by revenue source

Government expenditure — May 2026

TZS billion, by spending category

Zanzibar government resources, May 2026 (TZS billion)
Source	2025 Actual	2026 Estimate	2026 Actual	% of target
Tax on imports	26.3	30.8	22.7	73.7%
VAT & excise duties (local)	39.7	64.6	46.6	72.1%
Income tax	21.0	32.7	33.1	101.2%
Other taxes	19.2	37.4	14.7	39.3%
Non-tax revenue	10.2	19.6	12.4	63.3%
Grants	2.5	—	3.8	—
Total resource envelope	—	216.0	133.3	61.7%

Source: Ministry of Finance and Planning, Zanzibar (Chart 3.2.1, Chart 3.2.2). Other taxes include hotel and restaurant levies, tour operator levy, revenue stamps, airport/seaport service charges, road development fund and petroleum levy.

Watch this: Income tax is the only major revenue line ahead of target (101.2%), while imports-linked taxes and other levies fell well short — a pattern consistent with softer trade volumes weighing on collections even as tourism-linked income taxes outperform.

Section 3.3

External sector: a widening surplus built on tourism and trade

Zanzibar's current account surplus grew 21.2 percent to USD 864.8 million in the year ending May 2026, from USD 713.6 million a year earlier. Services exports — dominated by tourism — accounted for 96 percent of total goods-and-services exports, while a clove-export boom pushed goods exports up sharply despite the isles' persistently negative goods-trade balance.

Current account, year ending May

USD million, 2025 vs 2026p

Imports of goods by category

USD million, year ending May — capital imports more than doubled

Zanzibar current account summary (USD million, year ending May)
Item	2025	2026p	% change
Exports of goods	33.4	67.2	+101.2%
Imports of goods (fob)	532.7	660.1	+23.9%
Goods account balance	-499.3	-592.9	+18.7%
Services receipts	1,299.4	1,572.5	+21.0%
Services account balance	1,198.7	1,447.5	+20.8%
Goods & services balance	699.3	854.6	+22.2%
Primary income balance	12.7	8.8	-31.2%
Secondary income balance	1.5	1.5	-3.2%
Current account balance	713.6	864.8	+21.2%

Source: Tanzania Revenue Authority, banks and Bank of Tanzania computations (Table 3.3.1). p = provisional data.

Section 3.3 · Deep Dive

The clove-export boom driving goods exports

Clove export value jumped from just USD 3.3 million in the year ending May 2025 to an estimated USD 41.5 million in the year ending May 2026 — more than twelvefold — as both volumes (up roughly ninefold, to 6.4 thousand tonnes) and unit prices (up 36.2%, to USD 6,515.5 per tonne) rose sharply. Cloves alone now account for 61.7 percent of Zanzibar's total goods exports, overtaking manufactured goods and seaweed as the isles' leading export earner.

Goods exports by category

USD '000, year ending May — 2025 vs 2026p

Clove exports: value, volume & price

Indexed view — year ending May 2025 = 100

Zanzibar exports of goods by category (USD '000, year ending May)
Category	2025	2026p	% change
Cloves (traditional)	3,314.5	41,508.4	+1,152%
Manufactured goods	15,200.6	10,886.2	-28.4%
Other non-traditional exports	10,043.8	12,463.1	+24.1%
Seaweeds	3,438.5	1,632.2	-52.5%
Fish & fish products	1,386.5	752.7	-45.7%
Total goods exports	33,383.9	67,242.7	+101.4%

Source: Tanzania Revenue Authority and Bank of Tanzania computations (Table 3.3.2). p = provisional data.

Diversification watch: While the clove boom is a welcome windfall, seaweed and fish-product exports both fell by more than 45 percent over the same period — a reminder that Zanzibar's non-clove export base still needs strengthening to avoid over-reliance on a single, price-volatile commodity.

TICGL Analysis

What this means for investors and policymakers

1. Tourism remains the anchor

With services making up 96% of Zanzibar's exports and tourist arrivals up 21% y/y, hospitality, transport and ancillary services remain the highest-conviction growth sectors for investors on the isles.

2. Clove windfall needs a strategy

A twelvefold jump in clove export value is a rare opportunity to build price-stabilisation and value-addition capacity (processing, branding) before the current price cycle normalises.

3. Revenue collection needs strengthening

At 61.7% of target, Zanzibar's resource envelope shortfall — especially in import-linked taxes and "other taxes" — points to room for improved compliance and administration to reduce reliance on domestic borrowing.

TICGL Economic

Related TICGL insights & tools

Continue exploring Tanzania's economy — mainland and Zanzibar — with TICGL's research library, live dashboards and researcher programme.

Full Report

Tanzania Economic Review — June 2026 (Full Analysis)

Tanzania External Debt: Borrower, Use of Funds & Currency

Tanzania Government Domestic Debt by Creditor Category

What's Next for Tanzania's Economy? Policy Gaps to 2050

Is Tanzania's Economy Growing?

Opportunities and Risks of Doing Business in Tanzania in 2026

Tanzania Business Intelligence Dashboard

Open dashboard → Advisory

Invest in Tanzania — TICGL Investment Advisory

Explore → Opportunity

Join TICGL as a Researcher

Apply now →

Muhtasari kwa Kiswahili

Uchumi wa Zanzibar — Mei 2026

Kiwango cha mfumko wa bei Zanzibar kiliongezeka hadi asilimia 5.5 mwezi Mei 2026, kutoka asilimia 4.2 mwaka mmoja uliopita, kikichangiwa zaidi na kupanda kwa bei za vyakula (asilimia 9.9) na gharama za usafirishaji (asilimia 5.1) kufuatia mtikisiko wa bei za mafuta duniani.

Kwa upande wa bajeti, Serikali ya Mapinduzi Zanzibar ilikusanya rasilimali za jumla ya shilingi bilioni 133.3 mwezi Mei 2026, sawa na asilimia 61.7 tu ya lengo la mwezi huo. Matumizi ya Serikali yalifikia shilingi bilioni 309, ambapo asilimia 59.6 ilielekezwa kwenye miradi ya maendeleo, hali iliyosababisha nakisi ya shilingi bilioni 175.7 iliyogharamiwa kwa mikopo ya ndani.

Upande wa biashara ya nje ndio uliofanya vizuri zaidi — ziada ya urari wa biashara wa nje (current account) iliongezeka kwa asilimia 21.2 hadi dola za Marekani milioni 864.8 kwa mwaka unaoishia Mei 2026, ikichagizwa na ongezeko la watalii kwa asilimia 21 (kufikia watalii 947,169) na ongezeko kubwa la mauzo ya karafuu nje — kutoka dola milioni 3.3 hadi dola milioni 41.5, sawa na ongezeko la zaidi ya mara kumi na mbili.

Maana yake: Utalii unaendelea kuwa nguzo kuu ya uchumi wa Zanzibar, na ongezeko la mauzo ya karafuu ni fursa kubwa ya kuongeza thamani ya mazao hayo. Hata hivyo, TICGL/TERI inashauri Serikali kuimarisha ukusanyaji wa mapato ya ndani ili kupunguza utegemezi wa mikopo katika kugharamia bajeti.

Executive Summary

Tanzania's External Sector: The Year Ending May 2026 at a Glance

Tanzania's current account deficit widened to USD 2,209.5 million in the year ending May 2026, from USD 2,090.9 million a year earlier — a 5.7 percent increase — as elevated global freight and commodity prices, linked to the Middle East conflict, pushed import costs up faster than export earnings. The goods account deficit widened 18.8 percent to USD 5,410.6 million, even as goods exports grew a healthy 20.4 percent on the back of record gold receipts.

The bright spot was services trade: Tanzania is a consistent net exporter of services, and that surplus grew further in the year to May 2026. Services receipts rose 14.2 percent to USD 8,051.5 million, led by travel/tourism (USD 4,419.1 million, +9.5%) and transport services (USD 3,146.3 million, +16.0%), the latter reflecting Tanzania's growing role as a regional freight and logistics corridor. Services payments rose a more modest 8.3 percent to USD 3,370.1 million, driven mainly by higher freight payments (+17.9%) tied to the same global shipping cost pressures. The result: a net services surplus of USD 4,681.4 million, which continues to be one of the most important offsets to Tanzania's persistent goods trade deficit.

On the financing side, gross official foreign exchange reserves rose to USD 5,538.8 million, up from USD 5,136.7 million a year earlier, covering 4.3 months of projected imports — supported by strong export receipts (especially gold) and the Bank of Tanzania's continued gold purchase programme.

Must-Read TICGL Analysis

What's Next for Tanzania's Economy? The Policy Gaps Keeping TZS 1 Trillion Out of Reach by 2050

A resilient services sector — tourism and transport in particular — is one of Tanzania's clearest external competitive advantages. TICGL's flagship analysis examines the structural policy gaps that could determine whether this advantage translates into the country's Vision 2050 (Dira 2050) ambitions.

Read the full analysis →

1. The Current Account

Tanzania's current account records all transactions in goods, services, primary income (investment income, compensation of employees) and secondary income (transfers) between residents and the rest of the world. In the year ending May 2026, the current account balance was a deficit of USD 2,209.5 million, 5.7 percent wider than the USD 2,090.9 million deficit recorded a year earlier.

-USD 2,209.5m

Current Account Balance (Year to May-26)

▼ widened 5.7% y/y

-USD 5,410.6m

Goods Account Balance

▼ deficit widened 18.8% y/y

+USD 4,681.4m

Services Account Balance

▲ surplus widened 18.8% y/y

Chart 1 — Current Account Components, Year Ending May (Millions of USD)

Source: Tanzania Revenue Authority, banks, and Bank of Tanzania calculations. p = provisional

Chart 2 — Current Account Balance: Monthly Snapshot (Millions of USD)

Source: Bank of Tanzania. Monthly figures are more volatile than the annual trend and should be read alongside the year-ending-May comparison above.

Table 1 — Current Account, Year Ending May (Millions of USD)
Item	2024	2025	2026p	% Change
Goods account (net)	-6,058.3	-4,555.6	-5,410.6	18.8
Exports (goods)	7,758.7	9,654.7	11,627.9	20.4
Imports (goods)	13,817.0	14,210.2	17,038.5	19.9
Services account (net)	4,174.6	3,939.6	4,681.4	18.8
Services receipts	6,499.4	7,051.5	8,051.5	14.2
Services payments	2,324.9	3,111.9	3,370.1	8.3
Balance on goods and services	-1,883.7	-615.9	-729.2	18.4
Primary income account (net)	-1,674.0	-2,001.5	-1,830.7	-8.5
Secondary income account (net)	649.7	526.5	350.4	-33.4
Current account balance	-2,907.9	-2,090.9	-2,209.5	5.7

The widening in the goods deficit was driven by import growth (19.9%) modestly outpacing export growth (20.4%) in absolute dollar terms — imports added USD 2,828.3 million over the year while exports added USD 1,973.2 million. Encouragingly, the primary income deficit narrowed 8.5 percent to USD 1,830.7 million, mainly reflecting lower interest payments to non-residents, partially offsetting the wider goods deficit. The secondary income surplus (largely remittances/personal transfers) fell 33.4 percent to USD 350.4 million.

↑ Back to top

2. Exports: Services Receipts by Category

Services receipts — Tanzania's earnings from selling services to non-residents — rose 14.2 percent to USD 8,051.5 million in the year ending May 2026, from USD 7,051.5 million a year earlier. Growth was led by travel and transport, Tanzania's two largest services export categories.

USD 4,419.1m

Travel (Tourism) Receipts

▲ +9.5% y/y

USD 3,146.3m

Transport Receipts

▲ +16.0% y/y

USD 486.1m

Other Services Receipts

▼ -2.3% y/y

Chart 3 — Services Receipts by Category, Year Ending May (Millions of USD)

Source: Banks and Bank of Tanzania computations. Other services include construction, insurance, financial, telecommunication, computer and information, charges for intellectual property, government, personal and other business services.

Chart 4 — Composition of Services Receipts, Year Ending May 2026p

Source: TICGL computations based on Bank of Tanzania data

Table 2 — Services Receipts by Category, Year Ending May (Millions of USD)
Category	2024	2025	2026p	% Change (2025→2026p)	Share of Receipts, 2026p
Travel (Tourism)	3,627.1	4,034.4	4,419.1	+9.5%	54.9%
Transport	2,284.5	2,519.5	3,146.3	+16.0%	39.1%
Other services	587.8	497.7	486.1	-2.3%	6.0%
Total services receipts	6,499.4	7,051.5	8,051.5	+14.2%	100.0%

Travel receipts grew broadly in line with visitor numbers: international tourist arrivals rose 5.9 percent to 2,298,900 in the year ending May 2026, with average spending per visitor also edging higher. Transport receipts — largely freight earnings from goods in transit through Tanzanian ports and corridors to neighbouring landlocked countries — grew faster still at 16.0 percent, underscoring Tanzania's expanding role as a regional trade and logistics hub even as global shipping costs rose. On a monthly basis, total services receipts were broadly flat at USD 647.5 million in May 2026 compared with the same month a year earlier.

↑ Back to top

3. Imports: Services Payments by Category

Services payments — what Tanzania pays non-residents for services — rose 8.3 percent to USD 3,370.1 million in the year ending May 2026, from USD 3,111.9 million a year earlier. Unlike receipts, payments are dominated by transport (freight) costs rather than travel.

USD 1,691.8m

Transport Payments

▲ +16.8% y/y

USD 976.9m

Other Services Payments

▼ -2.7% y/y

USD 701.3m

Travel Payments

▲ +6.4% y/y

Chart 5 — Services Payments by Category, Year Ending May (Millions of USD)

Source: Banks and Bank of Tanzania computations. Other services include construction, insurance, financial, telecommunication, computer and information, government, personal and other business services.

Chart 6 — Composition of Services Payments, Year Ending May 2026p

Source: TICGL computations based on Bank of Tanzania data

Table 3 — Services Payments by Category, Year Ending May (Millions of USD)
Category	2024	2025	2026p	% Change (2025→2026p)	Share of Payments, 2026p
Transport	1,265.3	1,449.1	1,691.8	+16.8%	50.2%
Other services	679.8	1,003.9	976.9	-2.7%	29.0%
Travel	379.7	658.9	701.3	+6.4%	20.8%
Total services payments	2,324.9	3,111.9	3,370.1	+8.3%	100.0%

The rise in transport payments (freight costs) of 16.8 percent was consistent with — and largely explained by — the elevated goods import bill and higher global shipping costs arising from disruption to Gulf shipping routes and the Strait of Hormuz. On a monthly basis, services payments amounted to USD 278.8 million in May 2026, up from USD 267.0 million in May 2025, again largely reflecting higher freight payments.

↑ Back to top

4. Net Services Balance by Category

Comparing receipts and payments category by category shows exactly where Tanzania's services trade surplus comes from — and where it is most exposed to rising global costs.

Chart 7 — Net Services Balance by Category, Year Ending May 2026p (Millions of USD)

Source: TICGL computations (Services receipts minus services payments), based on Bank of Tanzania data.

Table 4 — Net Services Balance by Category, Year Ending May 2026p (Millions of USD)
Category	Receipts	Payments	Net Balance
Travel (Tourism)	4,419.1	701.3	+3,717.8
Transport	3,146.3	1,691.8	+1,454.5
Other services	486.1	976.9	-490.8
Total services account	8,051.5	3,370.1	+4,681.4

Key insight: Travel (tourism) is by far Tanzania's most profitable services category, generating a net surplus of USD 3,717.8 million — more than 6 times receipts from transport net of its costs. "Other services" (construction, insurance, financial, telecom, IT and business services) is the only category running a net deficit, at -USD 490.8 million, indicating Tanzania remains a net importer of these professional and technical services.

↑ Back to top

5. Foreign Exchange Reserves: The Financing Context

Despite the wider current account deficit, Tanzania's external buffers strengthened. Gross official foreign exchange reserves rose to USD 5,538.8 million at end-May 2026, from USD 5,136.7 million a year earlier, sufficient to cover 4.3 months of projected imports of goods and services — above the national adequacy threshold. This buildup was underpinned by strong export receipts, particularly gold, and the Bank of Tanzania's continued gold purchase programme, which helped cushion the impact of the wider current account deficit on reserve accumulation.

↑ Back to top

Muhtasari kwa Kiswahili

Katika mwaka unaoishia Mei 2026, nakisi ya urari wa malipo ya kawaida (current account) ya Tanzania iliongezeka hadi Dola za Marekani milioni 2,209.5, kutoka Dola milioni 2,090.9 mwaka uliopita, kutokana na gharama kubwa za uagizaji bidhaa nje ikilinganishwa na kasi ya ukuaji wa mauzo nje.

Hata hivyo, sekta ya huduma iliendelea kuwa nguvu kubwa ya uchumi wa nje: mapato ya huduma (services receipts) yaliongezeka kwa asilimia 14.2 hadi Dola milioni 8,051.5, yakiongozwa na utalii (Dola milioni 4,419.1, ongezeko la asilimia 9.5) na usafirishaji (Dola milioni 3,146.3, ongezeko la asilimia 16.0). Idadi ya watalii wa kimataifa iliongezeka kwa asilimia 5.9 hadi watalii 2,298,900.

Kwa upande wa malipo ya huduma (services payments), Tanzania ilitumia Dola milioni 3,370.1, ongezeko la asilimia 8.3, likichangiwa zaidi na ongezeko la gharama za usafirishaji wa mizigo (freight) kwa asilimia 16.8, kutokana na changamoto za usafirishaji duniani. Kwa ujumla, Tanzania inaendelea kuwa na ziada kubwa katika biashara ya huduma — ziada ya wavu (net surplus) ya Dola milioni 4,681.4 — huku utalii ukiwa chanzo kikuu cha faida hii, na huduma nyingine (kama ujenzi, bima, fedha na TEHAMA) pekee ndizo zenye nakisi.

Akiba ya fedha za kigeni iliongezeka hadi Dola milioni 5,538.8, ikitosha kugharamia uagizaji wa bidhaa na huduma kwa miezi 4.3, ikisaidiwa na mauzo makubwa ya dhahabu nje ya nchi.

Kwa uchambuzi zaidi wa kina kuhusu fursa na changamoto za kisera zinazoathiri ushindani wa nje wa Tanzania, soma makala kamili ya TICGL: What's Next for Tanzania's Economy?

Primary source: Bank of Tanzania, Monthly Economic Review, June 2026 (Section 2.7 — External Sector Performance; Table 2.7.1 Current Account; Table 2.7.3 Services Receipts by Category; Chart 2.7.5 Service Payments), ISSN 0856-6844, www.bot.go.tz, compiled with data from the Tanzania Revenue Authority and commercial banks. Analysis and commentary by TICGL Economic Research. All 2026 figures are provisional (p) and subject to revision. This page covers the current account, services export receipts and services import payments only; goods trade detail, external debt and reserves management are addressed in separate TICGL analyses.

Executive Summary

Central Government Budgetary Operations: April 2026 at a Glance

Tanzania's central government outperformed its revenue target in April 2026, collecting TZS 3,111.97 billion against a monthly target of TZS 2,902.66 billion — 7.2 percent (TZS 209.3 billion) above target. The overperformance was driven almost entirely by tax revenue, which came in at TZS 2,690.63 billion, 10.2 percent above target, powered by taxes on imports (117.3% of target) and income tax (114.5% of target). Non-tax revenue was the one soft spot, collecting TZS 421.34 billion against a TZS 461.43 billion target — 8.7 percent short.

On the spending side, total central government expenditure of TZS 3,457.22 billion was 16.5 percent below the TZS 4,139.26 billion estimate for the month. Recurrent expenditure (wages, interest, and other recurrent costs) was executed close to plan at TZS 2,696.64 billion, but development expenditure was severely under-executed — only TZS 760.58 billion of a planned TZS 1,448.48 billion was spent (52.5% execution), largely because foreign-financed development projects disbursed just TZS 137.69 billion of a TZS 607.49 billion estimate. The combination of strong revenue collection and restrained (particularly development) spending narrowed the fiscal balance before grants to a deficit of TZS 214.93 billion in April, well inside the TZS 1,110.96 billion deficit that had been projected.

Must-Read TICGL Analysis

What's Next for Tanzania's Economy? The Policy Gaps Keeping TZS 1 Trillion Out of Reach by 2050

Strong tax revenue collection is only half the fiscal story — persistent under-execution of development expenditure, especially foreign-financed projects, is one of the structural issues TICGL examines in its flagship analysis of the policy gaps standing between Tanzania and its Vision 2050 (Dira 2050) ambitions.

Read the full analysis →

1. Central Government Revenue — April 2026

Central government revenue reached TZS 3,111.97 billion in April 2026, equivalent to 96.0 percent of total government revenue (which also includes Local Government Authority own-source collections of TZS 130.32 billion) and 7.2 percent above the monthly target. Tax revenue continued to perform strongly, reflecting ongoing improvements in tax administration and compliance.

TZS 3,112.0bn

Central Govt Revenue

▲ 7.2% above target

TZS 2,690.6bn

Tax Revenue

▲ 10.2% above target

TZS 421.3bn

Non-Tax Revenue

▼ 8.7% below target

Chart 1 — Central Government Revenue by Source, April 2026 (Billions of TZS)

Source: Ministry of Finance and Bank of Tanzania computations (Table A2, cheques issued). 2026 actual figures are provisional.

Table 1 — Central Government Revenue by Source, April 2026 (Billions of TZS)
Revenue Source	April 2026 Estimate	April 2026 Actual	Variance	% of Target
Taxes on imports	904.55	1,060.67	+156.12	117.3%
Sales/VAT and excise on local goods	612.06	585.43	-26.63	95.6%
Income taxes	741.58	849.32	+107.74	114.5%
Other taxes	183.03	195.21	+12.18	106.7%
Tax revenue subtotal	2,441.23	2,690.63	+249.40	110.2%
Non-tax revenue	461.43	421.34	-40.09	91.3%
Central government revenue	2,902.66	3,111.97	+209.31	107.2%
LGA own sources	125.65	130.32	+4.67	103.7%
Total revenue (incl. LGAs)	3,028.30	3,242.29	+213.99	107.1%

Key insight: Taxes on imports (TZS 1,060.67bn) was the single largest revenue line in April 2026, overtaking income tax (TZS 849.32bn) — together these two lines contributed nearly 62 percent of central government revenue. VAT/excise on local goods was the only tax category to miss its target.

↑ Back to top

2. Central Government Revenue — Cumulative FY2025/26 (July 2025–April 2026)

Looking at the ten months to April 2026, central government revenue totalled TZS 33,294.80 billion (actual), ahead of the cumulative estimate of TZS 31,402.19 billion, and tracking toward the full-year budget of TZS 36,857.73 billion.

Chart 2 — Central Government Revenue: Full-Year Budget vs. Cumulative Performance (Billions of TZS)

Source: Ministry of Finance and Bank of Tanzania computations. Cumulative = July 2025–April 2026.

Table 2 — Revenue: Annual Budget vs. Cumulative Outturn, July 2025–April 2026 (Billions of TZS)
Revenue Item	2025/26 Full-Year Budget	Cumulative Estimate	Cumulative Actual	% of Cumulative Target
Taxes on imports	11,562.97	9,603.07	10,271.66	107.0%
Sales/VAT and excise on local goods	7,016.47	5,592.61	5,395.25	96.5%
Income taxes	11,367.88	9,113.54	11,163.31	122.5%
Other taxes	4,887.70	1,931.79	1,897.97	98.3%
Tax revenue	32,176.00	26,241.01	28,728.19	109.5%
Non-tax revenue	4,681.73	5,161.18	4,566.61	88.5%
Central government revenue	36,857.73	31,402.19	33,294.80	106.0%
LGA own sources	1,680.51	1,402.34	1,353.57	96.5%
Total revenue (incl. LGAs)	40,466.13	32,804.53	34,648.37	105.6%

Income tax has been the standout cumulative performer, running 22.5 percent above the ten-month target and already exceeding 98 percent of the full-year budget with two months of the fiscal year remaining — a sign that either economic activity or compliance is significantly outperforming the assumptions used to set the 2025/26 budget. Non-tax revenue and "other taxes" are the two areas trailing target on a cumulative basis.

↑ Back to top

3. Central Government Expenditure — April 2026

Total central government expenditure (cheques issued) was TZS 3,457.22 billion in April 2026, against an estimate of TZS 4,139.26 billion — 83.5 percent budget execution. Recurrent expenditure was executed almost exactly to plan, while development expenditure fell well short.

TZS 3,457.2bn

Total Expenditure

▼ 83.5% of target

TZS 2,696.6bn

Recurrent Expenditure

▲ 100.2% of target

TZS 760.6bn

Development Expenditure

▼ only 52.5% of target

Chart 3 — Central Government Expenditure by Category, April 2026 (Billions of TZS)

Source: Ministry of Finance and Bank of Tanzania computations. 2026 actual figures are provisional.

Table 3 — Central Government Expenditure, April 2026 (Billions of TZS)
Expenditure Category	April 2026 Estimate	April 2026 Actual	Variance	% of Target
Wages and salaries	1,100.16	1,134.39	+34.23	103.1%
Interest payments — domestic	311.98	304.24	-7.74	97.5%
Interest payments — foreign	301.80	226.05	-75.75	74.9%
Interest payments subtotal	613.79	530.29	-83.49	86.4%
Other goods, services and transfers	976.84	1,031.96	+55.12	105.6%
Recurrent expenditure	2,690.78	2,696.64	+5.86	100.2%
Development expenditure — local	840.98	622.89	-218.10	74.1%
Development expenditure — foreign	607.49	137.69	-469.80	22.7%
Development expenditure & net lending	1,448.48	760.58	-687.90	52.5%
Total expenditure	4,139.26	3,457.22	-682.04	83.5%

Key insight: Foreign-financed development spending was the weakest link, executing at just 22.7 percent of its April target — a shortfall of TZS 469.8 billion in a single month. Recurrent spending, by contrast, was fully executed, with wages and other recurrent transfers slightly overshooting plan.

↑ Back to top

4. Central Government Expenditure — Cumulative FY2025/26 (July 2025–April 2026)

Cumulative expenditure for the ten months to April 2026 stood at TZS 38,792.07 billion, against a ten-month estimate of TZS 40,402.96 billion (96.0% execution) and a full-year budget of TZS 48,774.99 billion.

Chart 4 — Expenditure: Full-Year Budget vs. Cumulative Performance (Billions of TZS)

Source: Ministry of Finance and Bank of Tanzania computations. Cumulative = July 2025–April 2026.

Table 4 — Expenditure: Annual Budget vs. Cumulative Outturn, July 2025–April 2026 (Billions of TZS)
Expenditure Item	2025/26 Full-Year Budget	Cumulative Estimate	Cumulative Actual	% of Cumulative Target
Wages and salaries	10,917.47	10,890.00	10,976.94	100.8%
Interest payments (domestic + foreign)	6,493.72	5,600.39	4,679.59	83.6%
Other goods, services and transfers	7,088.61	9,103.63	9,968.60	109.5%
Recurrent expenditure	31,281.26	25,594.01	25,625.13	100.1%
Development expenditure — local	12,117.83	10,066.44	10,193.05	101.3%
Development expenditure — foreign	5,375.90	4,742.51	2,973.90	62.7%
Development expenditure & net lending	17,493.73	14,808.95	13,166.94	88.9%
Total expenditure	48,774.99	40,402.96	38,792.07	96.0%

On a cumulative basis, the shortfall is concentrated in foreign-financed development expenditure, running at just 62.7 percent of its ten-month target — a persistent pattern rather than a one-month event, pointing to structural disbursement delays from external development partners rather than a single-month anomaly. Locally-financed development spending and recurrent expenditure have both tracked at or slightly above plan.

↑ Back to top

5. Fiscal Balance: Revenue Minus Expenditure

Because revenue outperformed target while expenditure — particularly development spending — under-executed, the fiscal balance before grants improved markedly relative to plan in April 2026: a deficit of TZS 214.93 billion actual, against an estimated deficit of TZS 1,110.96 billion. The same pattern holds cumulatively for the ten months to April 2026.

Chart 5 — Central Government Revenue vs. Expenditure, April 2026 & Cumulative FY2025/26 (Billions of TZS)

Source: TICGL computations based on Ministry of Finance and Bank of Tanzania data (Table A2).

Table 5 — Fiscal Balance Before Grants (Billions of TZS)
Period	Total Revenue (incl. LGAs)	Total Expenditure	Balance Before Grants
April 2026 — Estimate	3,028.30	4,139.26	-1,110.96
April 2026 — Actual	3,242.29	3,457.22	-214.93
Cumulative Jul-25–Apr-26 — Estimate	32,804.53	40,402.96	-7,598.43
Cumulative Jul-25–Apr-26 — Actual	34,648.37	38,792.07	-4,143.71
Full-Year 2025/26 Budget	40,466.13	48,774.99	-8,308.86

The cumulative fiscal balance before grants (-TZS 4,143.71 billion) is currently running at roughly half the size of the estimated ten-month deficit (-TZS 7,598.43 billion) — a combination of stronger-than-budgeted revenue collection and slower-than-planned execution of foreign-financed development projects. This figure excludes grants and cash/other adjustments, which further affect the final overall balance and its financing.

↑ Back to top

6. Budget Execution Scorecard — April 2026 (% of Monthly Target Achieved)

The chart below ranks each major revenue and expenditure line by how close actual April 2026 performance came to its monthly target (100% = on target).

Chart 6 — Budget Execution Rate by Line Item, April 2026 (% of Target)

Source: TICGL computations based on Ministry of Finance and Bank of Tanzania data. Bars above 100% indicate over-performance (green for revenue, amber caution for expenditure over-runs); bars below 100% indicate under-performance.

Chart 7 — Composition of Central Government Expenditure, April 2026 Actual

Source: TICGL computations based on Table A2 (Ministry of Finance / Bank of Tanzania)

↑ Back to top

Muhtasari kwa Kiswahili

Mwezi Aprili 2026, Serikali Kuu ya Tanzania ilikusanya mapato ya Shilingi bilioni 3,111.97, sawa na asilimia 107.2 ya lengo la mwezi lililokuwa Shilingi bilioni 2,902.66. Ukusanyaji huu mzuri ulichangiwa zaidi na kodi za uagizaji bidhaa nje ya nchi (asilimia 117.3 ya lengo) na kodi ya mapato (asilimia 114.5 ya lengo), huku mapato yasiyo ya kikodi pekee yakishindwa kufikia lengo (asilimia 91.3 tu).

Kwa upande wa matumizi, Serikali ilitumia jumla ya Shilingi bilioni 3,457.22, sawa na asilimia 83.5 tu ya lengo la Shilingi bilioni 4,139.26. Matumizi ya kawaida (mishahara, riba na uendeshaji) yalitekelezwa karibu kikamilifu (asilimia 100.2), lakini matumizi ya maendeleo yalisuasua sana, yakifikia asilimia 52.5 tu ya lengo — hasa kutokana na miradi ya maendeleo inayofadhiliwa na wahisani wa nje kutolewa kwa kiwango cha asilimia 22.7 pekee ya lengo la mwezi huo.

Kwa mtazamo wa miezi kumi (Julai 2025 hadi Aprili 2026), mapato ya Serikali Kuu yalifikia Shilingi bilioni 33,294.80, yakizidi lengo la kipindi hicho, huku matumizi yakiwa Shilingi bilioni 38,792.07, chini kidogo ya lengo. Hali hii ilipunguza pengo la nakisi ya bajeti (kabla ya misaada) hadi Shilingi bilioni 4,143.71, ikilinganishwa na nakisi iliyokadiriwa ya Shilingi bilioni 7,598.43.

Kwa uchambuzi zaidi wa kina kuhusu changamoto za kisera zinazoathiri utekelezaji wa miradi ya maendeleo na malengo ya Dira 2050, soma makala kamili ya TICGL: What's Next for Tanzania's Economy?

Primary source: Bank of Tanzania, Monthly Economic Review, June 2026 (Table A2 — Central Government Operations, Cheques Issued, Tanzania Mainland), ISSN 0856-6844, www.bot.go.tz, using Ministry of Finance data. Analysis and commentary by TICGL Economic Research. All April 2026 and cumulative FY2025/26 actual figures are provisional and subject to revision. This page covers central government revenue and expenditure only; financing (foreign and domestic borrowing), grants, debt, inflation, monetary policy and external sector data are addressed in separate TICGL analyses.

Executive Summary

Tanzania's financial markets in May 2026 reflected ample banking-system liquidity and a Bank of Tanzania holding steady on policy amid a difficult external backdrop shaped by the Middle East conflict and elevated oil prices. Headline inflation edged up to 4.2 percent, staying comfortably inside the national, EAC and SADC convergence bands, while the Bank held its Central Bank Rate at 5.75 percent for a third consecutive quarter. The Government securities market saw short-term paper heavily oversubscribed even as yields continued to ease, while the interbank cash market saw lower turnover and softer rates — both consistent with comfortable bank liquidity positions.

Headline Inflation (May 2026)

4.2%

▲ from 4.0% in Apr-26

Central Bank Rate

5.75%

Held for Q4 2025/26

7-Day IBCM Rate (avg)

5.92%

Within ±150bps corridor

Overall T-Bills Yield

4.74%

▼ from 5.06% in Apr-26

Overall IBCM Rate

6.14%

▼ from 6.26% in Apr-26

M3 Money Supply Growth

25.2%

▲ from 22.0% in Apr-26

Private Sector Credit Growth

23.2%

vs 23.6% in Apr-26

TZS/USD Exchange Rate (avg)

2,616.88

+3.02% y/y appreciation

Government securities market: Two Treasury bills auctions (combined tender TZS 498.1bn) attracted bids of TZS 1,330.3bn — over 2.6x oversubscribed — while 15- and 20-year Treasury bonds drew TZS 324.9bn in bids against a TZS 401.8bn tender, pointing to soft demand at the long end even as short-term yields fell.
Interbank cash market (IBCM): Total transactions eased to TZS 1,732.7bn from TZS 2,567.8bn in April, with 7-day tenor transactions dominating at 63.8% of volume; the overall IBCM rate slipped to 6.14% from 6.26%, tracking comfortably within the Bank's policy corridor.
Monetary policy transmission: The narrowed ±150bps CBR corridor is working as intended — the 7-day IBCM rate averaged 5.92% in May, staying tightly anchored around the 5.75% policy rate.
Exchange rate: The shilling depreciated marginally month-on-month to an average of TZS 2,616.88/USD in May 2026, but strengthened by 3.02% on an annual basis — a reversal from the 3.82% depreciation recorded a year earlier.

Must-Read TICGL Analysis

What's Next for Tanzania's Economy? The Policy Gaps Keeping $1 Trillion Out of Reach by 2050

Before diving into the market data below, read TICGL's flagship analysis on the structural and policy gaps standing between Tanzania and its Vision 2050 ambitions — essential context for interpreting this month's monetary, fiscal and market developments.

Read the Full Analysis →

1. Inflation Developments

Headline inflation rose to 4.2 percent in May 2026, from 4.0 percent in April 2026 and 3.2 percent a year earlier, remaining within the national target band and the SADC/EAC convergence benchmarks. The increase was driven mainly by the pass-through of elevated global fuel prices to transport costs — transport inflation jumped to 11.9 percent in May from 9.2 percent in April. Core inflation (excluding unprocessed food and energy) rose to 3.4 percent, remaining the principal contributor to headline inflation at 2.6 percentage points. Food inflation eased marginally to 5.6 percent as staple crop prices stabilised, while energy, fuel and utilities inflation moderated to 5.0 percent even though retail pump prices stayed elevated on Gulf-conflict disruption to global oil markets.

Chart 1: Tanzania Inflation Trend — Headline, Food, Energy & Core (Jan 2025 – May 2026)

Source: National Bureau of Statistics; Bank of Tanzania computations.

Table 1: Inflation Development — Selected Groups (Annual % Change)
Main Group	Weight (%)	May-25	Apr-26	May-26
All items (headline inflation)	100.0	3.2	4.0	4.2
Food and non-alcoholic beverages	28.2	5.6	5.7	5.6
Core inflation	73.9	2.1	3.1	3.4
Non-core inflation	26.1	5.6	6.3	6.3
Energy, fuel and utilities	5.7	6.1	5.3	5.0
Transport	14.1	1.7	9.2	11.9
Housing, water, electricity, gas & other fuels	15.1	3.4	1.7	0.7
Services	37.2	1.0	4.0	4.7
Goods	62.8	4.2	4.0	4.0

Source: National Bureau of Statistics and Bank of Tanzania computations (Table 2.1.1, BOT MER June 2026).

TICGL take: With headline inflation still well inside target and adequate domestic food supply plus fuel subsidies (introduced April–May 2026) cushioning cost pressures, the Bank of Tanzania retains room to keep policy accommodative. The key watch-item is transport/energy pass-through if the Strait of Hormuz disruption persists.

2. Monetary Policy Stance

At its April 2026 meeting, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) maintained the Central Bank Rate (CBR) at 5.75 percent for the quarter ending June 2026, balancing inflation and growth risks amid heightened Middle East geopolitical tensions. The CBR corridor was narrowed to ±150 basis points (from ±200bps) to sharpen policy transmission. The 7-day interbank cash market rate averaged 5.92 percent in May — comfortably inside the corridor — confirming effective transmission of the policy signal. The Bank continued to inject liquidity mainly via reverse repo operations, with sales rising to TZS 399.5 billion in May from TZS 379.7 billion in April, underscoring an accommodative posture in support of credit growth.

Chart 2: Extended Broad Money (M3) & Private Sector Credit — Outstanding Stock

Source: Bank of Tanzania and banks (Table A3).

Chart 3: Brent Crude Oil Price — Monthly Average (USD/barrel)

Source: World Bank Commodity Markets; U.S. EIA (Table A8).

3. Financial Markets Deep Dive: Government Securities & Interbank Cash Market

This section is TICGL's primary focus for the June 2026 review cycle: a detailed look at the two markets that most directly signal domestic liquidity conditions and the cost of government borrowing — the Government securities market (Treasury bills and bonds) and the Interbank cash market (IBCM).

3.1 Government Securities Market

In May 2026, the Government securities market performed satisfactorily. Short-term securities registered high oversubscription, more than offsetting undersubscription at the longer end of the yield curve, in line with adequate liquidity in the banking system.

Table 2: May 2026 Auction Results Summary
Instrument	Tender Size (TZS bn)	Bids Received (TZS bn)	Successful (TZS bn)	Subscription Rate	Weighted Avg. Yield
Treasury Bills (combined, 2 auctions)	498.1	1,330.3	499.8	267%	4.74% (from 5.06% in Apr-26)
Treasury Bonds — 15-year	165.5	324.9 (combined)	235.1 (combined)	81% (combined)	10.39%
Treasury Bonds — 20-year	236.3	—	—	—	10.43%

Source: Bank of Tanzania (Section 2.4, BOT MER June 2026). The 15- and 20-year bond tenders were combined at TZS 401.8bn against TZS 324.9bn in bids and TZS 235.1bn allotted.

Chart 4: Treasury Bills Yields by Tenor (Weighted Average Yield, %) — Mar 2025 to May 2026

Source: Bank of Tanzania (Table A4: Interest Rates Structure).

Chart 5: Treasury Bonds Yield to Maturity by Tenor (%) — Mar 2025 to May 2026

Source: Bank of Tanzania (Table A4: Interest Rates Structure).

Chart 6: Tanzania Government Securities Yield Curve — Snapshot, May 2026

Source: Bank of Tanzania (Table A4).

Table 3: Treasury Bills & Bonds Weighted Average Yields (%), Selected Months
Tenor	May-25	Sep-25	Jan-26	Mar-26	Apr-26	May-26
35-day T-bill	6.50	6.20	5.36	4.20	3.81	3.23
91-day T-bill	7.50	6.81	5.73	4.23	4.02	3.78
182-day T-bill	8.24	6.56	5.85	5.69	5.46	5.23
364-day T-bill	8.92	5.99	6.21	5.80	5.72	5.63
Overall T-bills rate	8.89	6.03	5.89	5.21	5.06	4.74
2-year bond	12.08	12.17	10.05	8.36	8.36	8.36
5-year bond	12.94	12.48	10.54	10.54	9.54	9.54
10-year bond	14.26	13.74	11.30	11.30	9.40	9.40
15-year bond	14.63	13.91	12.08	10.78	10.78	10.39
20-year bond	15.11	13.55	12.02	10.71	10.71	10.43
25-year bond	15.29	13.19	13.19	11.99	11.99	11.99

Source: Bank of Tanzania (Table A4: Interest Rates Structure, BOT MER June 2026).

TICGL take: The short end of the curve has fallen sharply — the overall T-bills rate has more than halved from 8.89% in May 2025 to 4.74% in May 2026 — reflecting ample liquidity and strong appetite for short-dated paper. The long end has also compressed materially (25-year bonds from 15.29% to 11.99%), but oversubscription at the short end versus undersubscription at longer tenors signals investors still prefer to stay short given global uncertainty. This is a favourable window for government to term out short-dated domestic debt, and for private issuers benchmarking against the sovereign curve.

3.2 Interbank Cash Market (IBCM)

The Interbank Cash Market continued to facilitate liquidity distribution among banks, with total market transactions of TZS 1,732.7 billion in May 2026, down from TZS 2,567.8 billion in April. Transactions with a 7-day maturity continued to dominate, accounting for 63.8 percent of total volume. The overall IBCM rate eased slightly to 6.14 percent from 6.26 percent in April 2026, tracking within the Bank's ±150bps CBR corridor and confirming smooth policy transmission.

Chart 7: Interbank Cash Market Rates — Overnight, 2–7 Day & Overall (%) — Mar 2025 to May 2026

Source: Bank of Tanzania (Table A4: Interest Rates Structure).

Chart 8: IBCM Total Transactions vs. Reverse Repo Sold (TZS bn) — Apr vs May 2026

Source: Bank of Tanzania (Section 2.2 & 2.4).

Chart 9: IBCM Volume Share by Maturity — May 2026

Source: Bank of Tanzania (Chart 2.4.2).

Table 4: Interbank Cash Market Rates by Maturity (%)
Maturity	Mar-26	Apr-26	May-26
Overnight	6.17	6.15	5.94
2 to 7 days	6.25	6.18	5.96
8 to 14 days	6.53	6.33	6.48
15 to 30 days	6.85	6.79	6.58
31 to 60 days	7.20	6.92	6.79
61 to 90 days	8.50	7.12	6.79
91 to 180 days	8.07	8.77	7.27
Overall IBCM rate	6.32	6.26	6.14

Source: Bank of Tanzania (Table A4). REPO rate held at 5.75%; Reverse REPO rate at 5.75%; Lombard rate at 7.75% throughout the period.

Table 5: Reverse Repo Operations (TZS billion)
Period	Reverse Repo Sold
April 2026	379.7
May 2026	399.5

Source: Bank of Tanzania (Section 2.2, Chart 2.2.2).

TICGL take: Lower IBCM turnover alongside a slightly lower overall rate suggests banks entered May 2026 with more comfortable liquidity buffers, reducing the need for interbank borrowing even as the Bank kept injecting liquidity through reverse repos. The dominance of 7-day tenor transactions (63.8% of volume) is consistent with banks managing statutory reserve requirements around the CBR corridor rather than taking directional liquidity positions.

3.3 Interbank Foreign Exchange Market (IFEM)

Liquidity conditions in the IFEM remained adequate in May 2026, supported by seasonal currency inflows, particularly from gold exports. Total market turnover rose to USD 119.3 million from USD 64.6 million in April, and the Bank intervened by auctioning USD 44 million (up from USD 15.3 million), in line with its Foreign Exchange Intervention Policy. Despite higher forex liquidity, the shilling depreciated marginally month-on-month, trading at an average of TZS 2,616.88/USD versus TZS 2,612.46/USD in April — though it strengthened 3.02% on an annual basis, a turnaround from 3.82% annual depreciation a year earlier.

Chart 10: TZS/USD Exchange Rate — End of Period, May 2025 to May 2026

Source: Bank of Tanzania (Table A10).

Table 6: IFEM Snapshot — April vs May 2026
Indicator	Apr-26	May-26
Total market turnover (USD million)	64.6	119.3
BOT net auction/sale (USD million)	15.3	44.0
Weighted average exchange rate (TZS/USD)	2,612.46	2,616.88

Source: Bank of Tanzania (Section 2.4, Chart 2.4.3).

Muhtasari kwa Kiswahili

Ripoti ya Kila Mwezi ya Kiuchumi ya Benki Kuu ya Tanzania (BOT) ya Juni 2026 inaonesha kuwa mfumuko wa bei nchini Tanzania uliongezeka hadi asilimia 4.2 mwezi Mei 2026, kutoka asilimia 4.0 mwezi Aprili, ukisukumwa hasa na ongezeko la bei za mafuta duniani kufuatia mgogoro wa Mashariki ya Kati. Hata hivyo, kiwango hicho bado kiko ndani ya lengo la Taifa na vigezo vya EAC na SADC.

Sera ya fedha: Benki Kuu iliendelea kutunza Kiwango cha Riba cha Benki Kuu (CBR) katika asilimia 5.75 kwa robo ya mwaka inayoishia Juni 2026.
Soko la Hatifungani za Serikali: Dhamana za muda mfupi (Treasury bills) ziliendelea kupokelewa vizuri sana na wawekezaji (ombi la TZS bilioni 1,330.3 dhidi ya lengo la TZS bilioni 498.1), huku riba (yield) ikiendelea kushuka hadi wastani wa asilimia 4.74. Hatifungani za muda mrefu (miaka 15 na 20) zilipokea maombi kidogo zaidi ya lengo.
Soko la Fedha baina ya Benki (Interbank Cash Market): Miamala ilipungua hadi TZS bilioni 1,732.7 kutoka TZS bilioni 2,567.8 mwezi Aprili, huku riba ya jumla ikishuka hadi asilimia 6.14. Miamala ya siku 7 iliendelea kutawala soko, ikichukua asilimia 63.8 ya miamala yote.
Soko la Fedha za Kigeni baina ya Benki (IFEM): Mzunguko wa fedha za kigeni uliongezeka hadi Dola milioni 119.3 kutoka Dola milioni 64.6 mwezi Aprili, huku Shilingi ikishuka kidogo hadi wastani wa TZS 2,616.88 kwa Dola moja, lakini ikiimarika kwa asilimia 3.02 ukilinganisha na mwaka jana.

Kwa uchambuzi wa kina zaidi kuhusu mapengo ya kisera yanayozuia uchumi wa Tanzania kufikia thamani ya Dola trilioni 1 ifikapo 2050, soma makala maalum ya TICGL: What's Next for Tanzania's Economy?

Primary source: Bank of Tanzania, Monthly Economic Review, June 2026 (covering data through May 2026). Compiled, analysed and contextualised by the TICGL Research Desk (Tanzania Investment and Consultant Group Ltd / Tanzania Economic Research Institute). Figures marked "p" are provisional and "r" are revised, per BOT convention. This page is for general information purposes and does not constitute investment advice.

Executive Summary

Tanzania's bank interest rate structure held broadly stable through May 2026, with modest declines across both lending and deposit rates. The overall lending rate was little changed at 15.32 percent (from 15.33% in April), while the negotiated rate for prime customers eased more sharply to 11.90 percent from 12.56 percent — a signal that banks are competing harder for their best borrowers even as headline pricing stays flat. On the deposit side, the overall time deposit rate eased to 8.43 percent from 8.54 percent, while the negotiated deposit rate moderated to 11.25 percent. The resulting short-term interest rate spread narrowed to 5.22 percentage points, from 5.50 points in April 2026 — the tightest spread recorded since at least March 2025, pointing to gradually improving intermediation efficiency in the banking sector.

Overall Lending Rate

15.32%

vs 15.33% in Apr-26

Overall Time Deposit Rate

8.43%

▼ from 8.54% in Apr-26

Short-Term Interest Spread

5.22 pts

▼ from 5.50 pts in Apr-26

Negotiated Lending Rate

11.90%

▼ from 12.56% in Apr-26

Negotiated Deposit Rate

11.25%

▼ from 11.37% in Apr-26

Savings Deposit Rate

2.85%

▼ from 2.91% in Apr-26

12-Month Deposit Rate

10.17%

▲ from 9.81% in Apr-26

Long-Term Lending (3–5yr)

14.43%

▼ from 14.56% in Apr-26

Lending rates: Short-term lending (up to 1 year) eased to 15.38% while medium-term (1–2 year) lending actually rose to 17.11% from 17.19% — the highest tenor on the curve — reflecting banks pricing in duration risk more aggressively than short-dated risk.
Deposit rates: The 12-month deposit rate rose to a 15-month high of 10.17%, even as the overall (blended) time deposit rate fell — suggesting banks are paying up more selectively for longer-dated, stickier deposits while short-tenor deposit pricing eased.
Spread compression: The lending-deposit spread has now narrowed for two consecutive months (5.85 → 5.50 → 5.22 percentage points since March 2026), consistent with the Bank of Tanzania's accommodative liquidity stance feeding through to cheaper credit intermediation.
Negotiated vs. posted rates: The gap between the overall lending rate (15.32%) and the negotiated lending rate (11.90%) has widened to 3.42 percentage points — the largest gap in the 15-month series — underscoring how much more competitively banks price loans for their strongest corporate and prime clients versus posted/list rates.

Must-Read TICGL Analysis

What's Next for Tanzania's Economy? The Policy Gaps Keeping $1 Trillion Out of Reach by 2050

Before diving into the interest rate data below, read TICGL's flagship analysis on the structural and policy gaps standing between Tanzania and its Vision 2050 ambitions — essential context for interpreting the cost of credit and bank intermediation trends discussed here.

Read the Full Analysis →

1. Lending Interest Rates by Tenor

Tanzania's overall lending rate stood at 15.32 percent in May 2026, essentially flat month-on-month. Beneath that headline figure, however, the lending curve by tenor tells a more nuanced story: short-term lending (up to 1 year) eased to 15.38%, medium-term (1–2 year) lending climbed to a series-high 17.11%, medium-term (2–3 year) lending eased slightly to 15.60%, long-term (3–5 year) lending fell to 14.43%, and term loans over 5 years eased to 14.08%. This "hump" in the middle of the curve — where 1–2 year money is priced above both shorter and longer tenors — suggests banks see the greatest duration/credit risk in that medium horizon.

Chart 1: Tanzania Lending Rates by Tenor (%) — March 2025 to May 2026

Source: Bank of Tanzania (Table A4: Interest Rates Structure).

Table 1: Lending Interest Rates by Tenor (%), Selected Months
Tenor	May-25	Sep-25	Jan-26	Mar-26	Apr-26	May-26
Short-term (up to 1 year)	15.96	15.52	15.49	15.45	15.31	15.38
Medium-term (1–2 years)	16.35	16.26	16.73	16.53	17.19	17.11
Medium-term (2–3 years)	15.24	15.19	14.97	15.31	15.63	15.60
Long-term (3–5 years)	14.19	14.26	14.05	13.95	14.56	14.43
Term loans (over 5 years)	14.17	14.66	14.24	14.30	13.96	14.08
Overall lending rate	15.18	15.18	15.10	15.11	15.33	15.32

Source: Bank of Tanzania (Table A4: Interest Rates Structure, BOT MER June 2026).

TICGL take: The medium-term (1–2 year) segment is now the most expensive tenor on the lending curve at 17.11% — over 250 basis points above the overall average. For businesses planning working-capital or asset-financing facilities, structuring around shorter (≤1 year, rolled over) or longer (3–5 year) tenors may currently offer materially better pricing than 1–2 year facilities.

2. Deposit Interest Rates by Tenor

The overall time deposit rate eased to 8.43 percent in May 2026 from 8.54 percent in April. Within the deposit ladder, shorter tenors softened — the 1-month rate fell to 8.34% and the 3-month rate rose to 10.52% (its highest point in the 15-month series) — while the 12-month rate climbed to 10.17%, its highest level since at least March 2025. The savings deposit rate, which anchors the bottom of the curve, eased to 2.85%.

Chart 2: Tanzania Deposit Rates by Tenor (%) — March 2025 to May 2026

Source: Bank of Tanzania (Table A4: Interest Rates Structure).

Table 2: Deposit Interest Rates by Tenor (%), Selected Months
Tenor	May-25	Sep-25	Jan-26	Mar-26	Apr-26	May-26
Savings deposit rate	2.52	2.92	2.94	2.89	2.91	2.85
1-month deposit	10.47	9.65	8.96	8.65	9.06	8.34
2-month deposit	9.25	9.28	9.56	9.34	9.67	8.65
3-month deposit	9.85	9.61	9.43	9.56	9.01	10.52
6-month deposit	9.82	10.12	10.20	10.51	10.35	9.87
12-month deposit	9.72	9.84	9.70	9.60	9.81	10.17
24-month deposit	7.49	7.63	7.11	7.03	8.20	7.69
Overall time deposit rate	8.58	8.50	8.33	8.33	8.54	8.43

Source: Bank of Tanzania (Table A4: Interest Rates Structure, BOT MER June 2026).

TICGL take: Savers locking in 12-month deposits are now earning materially more (10.17%) than those on shorter 1- or 2-month placements (8.34% / 8.65%) — the widest 12-month vs. 1-month premium since early 2025. For treasury and cash-management decisions, this favours term deposits over rolling short-tenor placements at the margin.

3. Interest Rate Spread Analysis

The short-term interest rate spread — defined by the Bank of Tanzania as the short-term (up to 1 year) lending rate less the 12-month deposit rate — narrowed to 5.22 percentage points in May 2026, from 5.50 points in April and 5.85 points in March. This is the narrowest spread recorded in the current data series, and reflects both softer short-term lending pricing and a simultaneously higher 12-month deposit rate.

Chart 3: Overall Lending vs. Overall Deposit Rate, and Spread (Percentage Points) — March 2025 to May 2026

Source: Bank of Tanzania (Table A4); spread computed by TICGL as Overall Lending Rate minus Overall Time Deposit Rate.

Table 3: Short-Term Interest Rate Spread (%), Dec 2025 – May 2026
Indicator	Dec-25	Jan-26	Feb-26	Mar-26	Apr-26	May-26
Short-term lending rate (up to 1 year)	15.46	15.49	15.41	15.45	15.31	15.38
12-month deposit rate	9.58	9.70	9.82	9.60	9.81	10.17
Short-term interest spread	5.88	5.79	5.59	5.85	5.50	5.22

Source: Bank of Tanzania (Table 2.3.1, BOT MER June 2026).

TICGL take: A narrowing spread is a favourable signal for financial intermediation efficiency — it means the "wedge" banks charge between what they pay savers and what they charge borrowers is shrinking, benefiting both sides of the balance sheet. If sustained, this trend should support both credit access for businesses (23.2% private sector credit growth was recorded in May 2026) and better returns for term depositors.

4. Negotiated Rates: Prime Client Pricing

Negotiated rates — the pricing banks offer their strongest, highest-volume clients — moved in opposite directions from posted rates in May 2026. The negotiated lending rate fell sharply to 11.90 percent from 12.56 percent in April, its lowest level in the 15-month series, while the negotiated deposit rate eased to 11.25 percent from 11.37 percent. The gap between the overall (posted) lending rate and the negotiated lending rate has widened to 3.42 percentage points, the widest gap recorded since March 2025 — evidence of intensifying competition among banks for prime corporate borrowers even as list pricing for the broader market stays essentially flat.

Chart 4: Negotiated Lending Rate vs. Negotiated Deposit Rate (%) — March 2025 to May 2026

Source: Bank of Tanzania (Table A4: Interest Rates Structure).

Table 4: Overall vs. Negotiated Lending & Deposit Rates (%), Selected Months
Indicator	May-25	Sep-25	Jan-26	Mar-26	Apr-26	May-26
Overall lending rate	15.18	15.18	15.10	15.11	15.33	15.32
Negotiated lending rate	12.99	12.84	12.25	12.21	12.56	11.90
Overall time deposit rate	8.58	8.50	8.33	8.33	8.54	8.43
Negotiated deposit rate	10.64	11.05	11.74	11.57	11.37	11.25

Source: Bank of Tanzania (Table A4: Interest Rates Structure, BOT MER June 2026).

TICGL take: Note the crossover: since around late 2025, the negotiated deposit rate (11.25% in May) has moved above the negotiated lending rate (11.90% is only marginally above it) — large depositors with negotiating power are earning nearly as much as prime borrowers are paying. This compression matters for corporate treasury strategy: businesses with strong banking relationships should actively negotiate rather than accept posted/list pricing on both sides of the balance sheet.

5. Foreign Currency Lending & Deposit Rates

Foreign currency (largely USD-denominated) lending and deposit rates remain structurally lower than their TZS counterparts, reflecting the absence of currency depreciation risk premium for lenders and the global USD rate environment. The overall foreign currency lending rate stood at 8.72 percent in May 2026, while the foreign currency overall time deposit rate was 4.47 percent — both up modestly from April.

Chart 5: TZS vs. Foreign Currency Overall Lending Rate (%) — March 2025 to May 2026

Source: Bank of Tanzania (Table A4: Interest Rates Structure, Section B: Foreign Currency).

Table 5: Foreign Currency Interest Rates (%), Selected Months
Indicator	May-25	Sep-25	Jan-26	Mar-26	Apr-26	May-26
FX savings deposit rate	1.33	0.98	0.77	1.22	1.68	1.06
FX overall time deposit rate	3.65	3.94	4.18	4.26	4.41	4.47
FX 12-month deposit rate	4.10	4.61	3.82	4.35	4.83	5.59
FX overall lending rate	8.81	8.43	8.57	8.70	8.96	8.72

Source: Bank of Tanzania (Table A4: Interest Rates Structure, Section B).

TICGL take: The TZS–USD lending rate differential remains wide (15.32% vs. 8.72%, a gap of roughly 6.6 percentage points), which continues to make foreign-currency borrowing attractive for importers and dollar-revenue businesses — provided they can manage the associated exchange rate risk, especially with the shilling's recent mild depreciation trend on a month-on-month basis.

6. May 2026 Rate Ladder Snapshot

The chart below consolidates the full lending and deposit rate ladder as it stood at the end of May 2026, giving a single-glance view of where funding and credit costs sit across the maturity spectrum.

Chart 6: Tanzania Lending & Deposit Rate Ladder — Snapshot, May 2026

Source: Bank of Tanzania (Table A4, BOT MER June 2026).

Policy backdrop: This rate structure sits against a Central Bank Rate held at 5.75% and a 7-day interbank cash market rate averaging 5.92% in May 2026 — meaning banks' overall lending rate carries a spread of roughly 9.6 percentage points over the policy rate, while the overall deposit rate sits only about 2.7 points above it. For a fuller picture of the monetary policy and money-market backdrop shaping these numbers, see TICGL's companion analysis on Tanzania's Government securities and interbank cash markets.

Muhtasari kwa Kiswahili

Ripoti ya Kila Mwezi ya Kiuchumi ya Benki Kuu ya Tanzania (BOT) ya Juni 2026 inaonesha kuwa riba za mikopo na amana za benki nchini Tanzania ziliendelea kuwa tulivu mwezi Mei 2026, huku kukiwa na upungufu mdogo katika pande zote mbili.

Riba ya mikopo kwa ujumla: Ilibaki karibu bila mabadiliko kwa asilimia 15.32, kutoka asilimia 15.33 mwezi Aprili.
Riba ya mikopo iliyojadiliwa (negotiated) kwa wateja wakubwa: Ilishuka kwa kiasi kikubwa hadi asilimia 11.90 kutoka asilimia 12.56, ikionesha ushindani mkubwa baina ya benki kuvutia wateja wazuri.
Riba ya amana kwa ujumla: Ilishuka hadi asilimia 8.43 kutoka asilimia 8.54, ingawa riba ya amana za miezi 12 iliongezeka hadi asilimia 10.17 — kiwango cha juu zaidi katika miezi 15 iliyopita.
Pengo la riba (interest rate spread): Pengo baina ya riba ya mikopo ya muda mfupi na riba ya amana za miezi 12 lilipungua hadi pointi 5.22, kutoka pointi 5.50 mwezi Aprili — hii ni ishara nzuri ya kuboreka kwa ufanisi wa upatanishi wa kifedha (intermediation) katika sekta ya benki.
Riba za fedha za kigeni: Riba ya mikopo kwa dola ilikuwa asilimia 8.72, ikiendelea kuwa chini sana ukilinganisha na riba ya mikopo kwa Shilingi (asilimia 15.32).

Kwa uchambuzi wa kina zaidi kuhusu soko la fedha la Tanzania (Government Securities Market na Interbank Cash Market), soma makala shirikishi ya TICGL: Tanzania Financial Markets Review — June 2026. Na kwa mapengo ya kisera yanayozuia uchumi wa Tanzania kufikia thamani ya Dola trilioni 1 ifikapo 2050, soma: What's Next for Tanzania's Economy?

Primary source: Bank of Tanzania, Monthly Economic Review, June 2026 (covering data through May 2026), Table A4: Interest Rates Structure and Table 2.3.1: Lending and Deposit Interest Rates. Compiled, analysed and contextualised by the TICGL Research Desk (Tanzania Investment and Consultant Group Ltd / Tanzania Economic Research Institute). The interest rate spread series in Chart 3 is computed by TICGL (Overall Lending Rate minus Overall Time Deposit Rate) using official BOT source data; Table 3's "short-term interest spread" reproduces BOT's own published definition and figures. This page is for general information purposes and does not constitute investment or financial advice.

Scenario	Avg Real Growth	GDP 2030	GDP 2040	GDP 2050	Year $1T Reached	Policy Gaps Closed	Status
Current Trend	5.9%	$122B	$215B	$380B	~2065	None / minimal	15 yrs late
FYDP IV Target	7.0%	$129B	$253B	$497B	~2060	1–2 gaps partially	~10 yrs late
TICGL Central Estimate	7.5%	$132B	$272B	$561B	~2058–2062	2–3 gaps partially	8–12 yrs late
Reform Acceleration	8.0%	$135B	$292B	$631B	~2054–2056	3–4 gaps closed	4–6 yrs late
East Africa Frontier	9.0%	$141B	$335B	$793B	~2052	4–5 gaps closed	~2 yrs late
Dira 2050 Required	10.2%	$149B	$391B	$1,000B	2050	All 6 gaps closed	On Target

Year	Population (M)	GDP @5.9% ($B)	GDP @7.5% TICGL ($B)	GDP @10.2% ($B)	Per Capita @10.2%	Per Capita @7.5%	vs $7,000 Target
2025	67.5	$91.8	$91.8	$91.8	$1,360	$1,360	19%
2030	77.5	$122	$132	$149	$1,922	$1,703	27%
2035	90.1	$163	$186	$243	$2,697	$2,065	39%
2040	104.8	$217	$263	$397	$3,788	$2,510	54%
2045	117.2	$290	$371	$648	$5,530	$3,165	79%
2050	130.0	$387	$523	$1,000	$7,692	$4,023	110% / 57%
2055	137.0	$517	$737	—	—	$5,380	77%
2058–2062	142.0	~$617	~$940–$1,000B	—	—	~$6,900	~$1T TICGL est.

Policy Gap	Budget 2026/27 Response	Key Measure	TICGL Gap Assessment
Gap 1: Narrow Tax Base	Partial — mostly depth not breadth	Digital payment mandate (TWIGA), 374 fees abolished (MKUMBI I)	Promising start, not transformative
Gap 2: Industrialisation	Partial — tariff protection & energy	JNHPP commissioning (2,115 MW), edible oil tariff (35%), SGR operational	Infrastructure good; SEZ policy missing
Gap 3: Private Sector Crowding-Out	Minimal — PPP still at 0 financial close	PPP Framework mentioned; no specific project at financial close	Unaddressed — critical gap
Gap 4: Informal Economy	Meaningful — digital mandate enforced	Transport, schools, hospitality & agri digital payment mandate	Best measure in budget — if enforced
Gap 5: Wage Bill / Fiscal Composition	None — worsened in 2026/27	Wage bill +31.4%; capital spend –1.9%; no structural reform signal	Gap widened this year
Gap 6: Human Capital Skills	Partial — VETA & student loans	TZS 1.58T education spending; 284,487 student loans; VETA expansion	Investment up, curriculum reform needed

#	Challenge	Domain	Key Evidence / Indicator	Primary Sectors Affected
SP-1	Low Productivity	Across Productive Sectors	Total factor productivity growth has been insufficient; Tanzania lags well behind regional comparators in agriculture, manufacturing, and services	All Sectors
SP-2	Limited Industrialisation	Industrial Structure	Manufacturing at only 7.3% of GDP, growth at 4.8% — Tanzania remains a raw commodity exporter despite three FYDPs targeting industrialisation	Manufacturing, Mining, Agriculture
SP-3	Weak Value Chains	Economic Integration	Agriculture-agro-processing linkages fragmented; mining-manufacturing disconnected; supply chains import-dependent	Agriculture, Manufacturing, Mining, Tourism
SP-4	Infrastructure Constraints	Physical Capital	Electricity: 4,032 MW for 65M people; paved roads: 8.6%; high logistics dwell times; digital gaps	Energy, Transport, All Sectors
SP-5	Environmental Pressures	Sustainability	85% of farmland rain-fed; hydro drought risk; deforestation; desertification; coastal asset vulnerability	Agriculture, Energy, Tourism
SP-6	Informality	Economic Structure	Informal economy: 55% of GDP (2023); target 29% by 2031; informal employment: 94.2% of total workforce	All Sectors — Especially Agriculture, Trade
SP-7	Governance & Implementation Gaps	Institutional	FYDP III budget execution at 67%; fragmented MDA mandates; PPP frameworks exist but not operationalised	All Sectors — Meta-Constraint

Sector / Domain	Indicator	Baseline (2023–25)	FYDP IV Target (2031)	Gap / Change Required
Economic Growth	GDP Real Growth Rate	5.5% (2024 actual)	10.5%	×1.9 acceleration
Agriculture (26.3% GDP)	Post-Harvest Losses	35%	10%	−25pp reduction
Agriculture	Agriculture Credit Share	14.9% (2023)	20%	+5.1pp
Agriculture	Agriculture Real Growth Rate	4.1% (2024)	10%	×2.4 faster
Energy (Cornerstone)	Installed Electricity Capacity	4,032 MW (2025)	15,000 MW	×3.7 expansion
Energy	Rural Household Electrification	36% (2025)	42.8%	+6.8pp
Energy	Renewable Energy Share	<2% of mix	≥40%	×20+ scale-up
Finance	DFI Capital Base (% GDP)	0.4% (2024)	≥1.25%	×3.1 increase
Finance	MSMEs with Active Formal Loans	19% (2023)	≥40%	×2.1 expansion
Finance	Rural Population with Microfinance	19% (2023)	≥80%	×4.2 expansion
Human Capital	Workforce with High Skills	3%	12%	×4 increase
Human Capital	Workforce with Low Skills	84%	55%	−29pp reduction
Investment	FDI Inflows	USD 1,717.6M (2024)	USD 8,366M	×4.9 increase
Trade & Exports	Manufactured Goods Export Share	18.6% (non-traditional)	29.59%	+11pp
Informality	Informal Economy (% of GDP)	55% (2023)	29%	−26pp in 5 years

Ref	Structural Problem	Agriculture	Industry / Mfg	Energy	Finance	Economy-Wide
SP-1	Energy Deficit & Unreliability	Critical	Critical	Critical	High	High
SP-2	Finance Shallowness & Credit Exclusion	Critical	Critical	High	Critical	Critical
SP-3	Skills Mismatch & Human Capital Deficit	Critical	Critical	High	High	High
SP-4	Informality (94.2% Informal Employment)	Critical	Critical	Medium	Critical	Critical
SP-5	Infrastructure Gaps (Transport, Logistics, Digital)	High	Critical	Critical	High	High
SP-6	Institutional Weakness & Regulatory Fragmentation	Critical	Critical	High	High	Critical
SP-7	Commodity Export Dependence & Low Value Addition	High	Critical	Medium	Medium	Critical
SP-8	Import Dependence for Inputs & Capital Goods	High	Critical	High	Critical	High
SP-9	Climate Vulnerability & Environmental Degradation	Critical	Medium	Critical	High	Medium
SP-10	Implementation & Coordination Failure	Critical	Critical	Critical	Critical	Critical

Country	Tax-to-GDP	CIT Rate	Avg. GDP Growth	Private Credit/GDP	Key Enabler	Status
🇹🇿 Tanzania	13.1%	30% Highest EAC	5.3–5.7%	16.4% Critical gap	Limited — regulatory burden high; 266 parastatals competing with private sector	⚠ Needs Reform
🇸🇬 Singapore	13.6%	17% + exemptions	4–5%+	>150% ★ World-class	SEZ incentives, territorial tax, world-class logistics, zero capital gains	✅ Model Example
🇷🇼 Rwanda	15.7%	15% preferential / 28% standard	7–9%	Rising	Rwanda Development Board, low corruption, business climate reforms	✅ African Benchmark
🇮🇪 Ireland	~22%	12.5% effective	High / EU-leading	Extremely High	Deliberate low-CIT strategy since 2003; pharma & tech FDI magnet	✅ Model Example
🇪🇪 Estonia	~20–22%	0% on reinvested profits	Above EU avg.	High	Distribution-only CIT + world-leading e-governance; zero paper bureaucracy	✅ Digital Leader
🇲🇺 Mauritius	Moderate	15% flat rate	4–5%	High	Freeport/export incentives, 100% foreign ownership, zero capital gains	✅ Africa's #1
🇻🇳 Vietnam	~18–20%	10–20% (SEZ preferential)	6–7%	Very High	Doi Moi reforms + massive SEZ incentives; Samsung, Intel, Nike anchors	✅ Manufacturing Hub
🇰🇷 South Korea	~28–29% (now)	25% (now — rose AFTER transformation)	Historical miracle	~176%	Private chaebols first; tax rose ONLY AFTER private sector was built	📘 Historical Lesson
🇬🇪 Georgia	~24%	15%	Sustained post-reform	Growing	Rose Revolution 2003: 21 taxes → 5; radical simplification + anti-corruption	✅ Reform Model

Incentive Area	Tanzania EPZ/SEZ (Current)	Vietnam SEZ (Benchmark)	Rwanda / Mauritius Best Practice	Gap Assessment
Corporate Tax Holiday	10-year holiday on CIT	10–15 year holiday + 50% reduction after	Rwanda: up to 7-year + 15% preferential	⚠ Competitive — needs extension
VAT on Raw Materials	Exempt	Exempt	Exempt	✅ On par
Import Duty on Capital Goods	Exempt	Exempt	Exempt	✅ On par
Withholding Tax	Exempt (10-year holiday)	Exempt during holiday	Mauritius: 0% on most distributions	⚠ Mauritius more attractive long-term
Foreign Worker Permits	Up to 10 non-citizens; max 8-year work permits	Unrestricted for key roles in SEZs	Rwanda: No quota for priority sector investors	❌ Restrictive — deters skills transfer
Land Access / Tenure	Land bank; 99-year leases (2023 policy)	50–75 year lease, clear title system	Mauritius: 60-year leases + investor protection	⚠ Improving — disputes affect ~20% projects
One-Stop Centre	TISEZA OSFC launched 2025; 2,695 consultations Q1	Fully digital, <5 days registration	Rwanda: <6 hours company registration	🔄 Improving — cut from 60→30 days
Infrastructure in Zones	10 of 14 parks still in development; Bagamoyo started Dec 2025	Full infrastructure standard in all SEZs	Mauritius Freeport: world-class logistics	❌ Critical gap — biggest investor constraint
Customs Processing	On-site customs inspection	On-site + pre-clearance	48-hour clearance target	⚠ Adequate — needs digitisation upgrade

Constraint Area	Tanzania Severity	Impact on TFP	Firms Affected	Reform Priority
Tax Administration Complexity	Critical	Statistically Significant Negative (IMF SIP 2025)	Majority of formal firms	🔴 Urgent
Access to Finance / Credit	Critical	Statistically Significant Negative (IMF SIP 2025)	~70% of SMEs	🔴 Urgent
Transport / Logistics Access	High	Statistically Significant Negative (IMF SIP 2025)	Rural & agro-firms especially	🔴 Urgent
Electricity / Power Outages	High	Negative (non-parametric evidence)	34% of firms report as major issue	🟡 High
Regulatory Burden / Licensing	High	Negative (non-parametric evidence)	14% management time consumed	🟡 High
Land Acquisition & Title	Moderate-High	Reduces investment certainty	~20% of investment projects	🟡 High
Corruption / Facilitation Payments	Improving	No significant regression evidence (2023)	TI score improved 86% since 2001	🔵 Continue Progress
Trade & Cross-Border Obstacles	Moderate	Reduces export competitiveness	Export-oriented firms	🟡 High

National Debt Overview

Tanzania's total national debt — comprising both external and domestic obligations — stood at USD 51,112.8 million at end-February 2026, reflecting a marginal contraction of 0.2% from January 2026.

Total Debt (Feb 2026)

$51,112.8M

National debt stock, USD millions

External Debt Share

70.2%

of total national debt

Domestic Debt Share

29.8%

of total national debt

MoM Change

▼ 0.2%

vs. January 2026

Key Context: Tanzania's national debt split of 70.2% external / 29.8% domestic reflects the country's continued reliance on concessional external financing to fund infrastructure and development programmes. The slight overall contraction in February 2026 was driven primarily by a small decline in the external debt portfolio.

Total Debt Composition

Feb 2026 · USD Millions

Source: Ministry of Finance & Bank of Tanzania

Total Debt Stock — Monthly Trend

Feb 2025 – Feb 2026 · USD Millions

Source: Bank of Tanzania, Table A10

External Debt Analysis

Tanzania's external debt (public and private combined) reached USD 35,859.1 million at end-February 2026 — a decline of 0.1% from January 2026. Central government accounts for the dominant share at 82.7%.

External Debt Stock

$35,859.1M

End Feb 2026 (provisional)

Public Debt Share

82.7%

Central government

Private Sector Share

17.3%

Of external debt

Disbursements (Feb)

$83.8M

Mainly central govt

Debt Service (Feb)

$98.9M

Principal + Interest

External Debt Stock by Borrower

USD Millions · Feb-25 vs Jan-26 vs Feb-26

Borrower Category	Feb-25 (USD M)	Share %	Jan-26 (USD M)	Share %	Feb-26 (USD M)	Share %
Central Government	26,394.4	80.5%	29,687.2	82.7%	29,640.4	82.7%
Disbursed Outstanding (DOD)	26,317.1	80.3%	29,606.9	82.5%	29,560.2	82.4%
Interest Arrears	77.3	0.2%	80.3	0.2%	80.2	0.2%
Private Sector	6,389.9	19.5%	6,204.7	17.3%	6,218.7	17.3%
Disbursed Outstanding (DOD)	5,827.2	17.8%	5,770.3	16.1%	5,774.3	16.1%
Interest Arrears	562.8	1.7%	434.3	1.2%	444.5	1.2%
Public Corporations	3.8	0.0%	0.0	0.0%	0.0	0.0%
Total External Debt	32,788.0	100%	35,891.9	100%	35,859.1	100%

Source: Ministry of Finance and Bank of Tanzania · p = provisional data

External Debt Trend — Monthly

Feb 2025 – Feb 2026 · USD Millions (Selected months)

Source: Bank of Tanzania, Table A10

Creditor Composition

Multilateral institutions remain the dominant creditors at 57.8% of the external debt stock, followed by commercial lenders at 35.7%. Bilateral creditors account for just 4.4%.

Creditor Composition — Feb 2026

Percentage share of external debt stock

Multilateral57.8% · $20,730.5M

Commercial35.7% · $12,818.5M

Bilateral4.4% · $1,581.3M

Export Credit2.0% · $728.8M

External Debt by Creditors — Detail

USD Millions

Creditor	Feb-25	Jan-26	Feb-26	Share %
Multilateral	18,366.1	20,788.2	20,730.5	57.8%
DOD	18,335.1	20,765.1	20,707.6	57.7%
Interest Arrears	31.0	23.2	22.9	0.1%
Bilateral	1,349.5	1,591.6	1,581.3	4.4%
Commercial	11,918.0	12,786.3	12,818.5	35.7%
DOD	11,557.7	12,427.9	12,452.9	34.7%
Interest Arrears	360.3	358.4	365.6	1.0%
Export Credit	1,154.5	725.7	728.8	2.0%
Total	32,788.0	35,891.9	35,859.1	100%

Source: Ministry of Finance and Bank of Tanzania

Debt by Borrower Category

Central government dominates at 82.7% of total external debt. The private sector's share has slightly declined while public corporations now hold zero outstanding external debt.

Borrower Share Evolution — Feb 2025 to Feb 2026

Percentage share of disbursed outstanding debt

Source: Ministry of Finance and Bank of Tanzania

Notable: Public corporations (TANESCO, ATCL, TRC, TPA, TFC and DAWASA) now hold zero outstanding external debt as at February 2026, compared to USD 3.8 million in February 2025 — reflecting debt clearance efforts within state-owned enterprises.

Currency Composition of External Debt

The US Dollar dominates Tanzania's external debt currency mix at 66.0%, followed by the Euro at 17.7% and Chinese Yuan at 6.5%. This concentration creates exchange-rate sensitivity.

Currency Breakdown — Feb 2026

% share of disbursed outstanding debt

🇺🇸 US Dollar66.0% · $23,317.8M

🇪🇺 Euro17.7% · $6,255.8M

🇨🇳 Chinese Yuan6.5% · $2,306.3M

🌐 Other Currencies9.8% · $3,454.6M

Currency Composition Trend

% share — Feb 2025 vs Jan 2026 vs Feb 2026

Currency	Feb-25	Jan-26	Feb-26
US Dollar	67.6%	65.9%	66.0%
Euro	16.7%	17.7%	17.7%
Chinese Yuan	6.3%	6.5%	6.5%
Other	9.3%	9.8%	9.8%
Total	100%	100%	100%

Source: Ministry of Finance and Bank of Tanzania

Disbursed Outstanding Debt by Use of Funds

BoP & budget support and transport/telecommunications jointly account for over 44% of total disbursed external debt. Social welfare and education holds a significant 19.3% share.

Use of Funds — Percentage Share

Feb 2025 vs Feb 2026 (Provisional)

Source: Ministry of Finance and Bank of Tanzania

Use of Funds — Detailed Breakdown

% share of disbursed outstanding debt

Activity	Feb-25 (%)	Jan-26 (%)	Feb-26 (%)	Change
BoP & Budget Support	20.9	22.6	22.5	+1.6pp YoY
Transport & Telecommunication	21.2	21.8	21.9	+0.7pp YoY
Social Welfare & Education	20.0	19.4	19.3	−0.7pp YoY
Energy & Mining	13.1	12.0	12.0	−1.1pp YoY
Real Estate & Construction	4.8	4.9	4.9	+0.1pp YoY
Finance & Insurance	4.5	3.5	3.5	−1.0pp YoY
Agriculture	4.8	5.3	5.3	+0.5pp YoY
Industries	3.6	3.7	3.7	+0.1pp YoY
Tourism	1.6	1.8	1.8	+0.2pp YoY
Other	5.5	4.9	4.9	−0.6pp YoY
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0	—

pp = percentage points · Source: Ministry of Finance and Bank of Tanzania

Domestic Debt Analysis

Tanzania's domestic debt stock reached TZS 38,781.7 billion at end-February 2026, a 0.5% monthly increase. Treasury bonds dominate at 80.8% of total domestic debt, held predominantly by commercial banks and pension funds.

Domestic Debt Stock

TZS 38.8T

End Feb 2026 (provisional)

Treasury Bonds Share

80.8%

Of government securities

MoM Change

+0.5%

vs. January 2026

Govt Securities Issued

TZS 621.9B

In February 2026

Debt Servicing (Feb)

TZS 875.2B

Principal + Interest

Domestic Debt by Borrowing Instrument

TZS Billions · Feb 2026 (Provisional)

Instrument	Feb-25 (TZS B)	Feb-26 (TZS B)	Share %
Government Bonds	27,073.7	31,333.2	80.8%
Treasury Bills	1,847.4	1,653.0	4.3%
Government Stocks	187.1	135.7	0.4%
Tax Certificates	0.1	0.1	0.0%
Overdraft (Non-Securitised)	4,887.5	5,659.6	14.6%
Total	34,014.1	38,781.7	100%

Source: Ministry of Finance and Bank of Tanzania

Domestic Debt by Creditor Category

TZS Billions · Feb 2026 (Provisional)

Holder	Feb-25 (TZS B)	Feb-26 (TZS B)	Share %
Commercial Banks	9,791.4	10,834.3	27.9%
Pension Funds	9,097.2	10,463.9	27.0%
Bank of Tanzania	6,847.5	7,468.4	19.3%
Others	5,872.8	7,273.8	18.8%
Insurance	1,852.3	1,983.5	5.1%
BOT Special Funds	552.7	757.8	2.0%
Total	34,014.1	38,781.7	100%

Source: Ministry of Finance and Bank of Tanzania

Domestic Debt Stock — Historical Trend

TZS Billions · Feb 2018 – Feb 2026

Source: Ministry of Finance

Commercial Banks & Pension Funds collectively hold 54.9% of Tanzania's domestic debt — TZS 21,298.2 billion — underscoring the banking sector's key role as a financing conduit for government operations and the importance of pension fund governance in debt sustainability.

Debt Service Flows — February 2026

In February 2026, Tanzania's external debt service totalled USD 98.9 million while domestic debt servicing reached TZS 875.2 billion. Net external flows remained positive at USD 48.4 million.

External Debt Service — Feb 2026

USD Millions

Total Service

$98.9M

Feb 2026

Principal

$35.4M

Repayments

Interest

$63.5M

Payments

Source: Bank of Tanzania, Table A10

Domestic Debt Service — Feb 2026

TZS Billions

Total Service

TZS 875.2B

Feb 2026

Principal

TZS 472.2B

Repayments

Interest

TZS 403.0B

Payments

Source: Bank of Tanzania

External Debt Service — Monthly Trend

USD Millions · Feb 2025 – Feb 2026 (Selected Months)

Source: Bank of Tanzania, Table A10

Historical Debt Trend — Tanzania

Tanzania's external debt has grown significantly over the decade, rising from USD 20.5 billion in 2018 to USD 35.9 billion in February 2026 — an increase of approximately 75% over eight years.

Annual External & Domestic Debt Stock

USD Millions · Annual Data (Selected Economic Indicators)

Year	External Debt (USD M)	Domestic Debt (TZS B equiv.)	Disbursed (USD M)	Interest Arrears (USD M)
2018	20,503.0	13,742	18,765.1	1,737.9
2019	21,920.9	14,069	20,029.3	1,891.7
2020	22,952.7	14,644	20,958.4	1,994.3
2021	25,519.3	15,874	23,250.9	2,268.4
2022	27,832.5	22,159	25,392.8	2,439.7
2023	30,252.7	27,267	27,889.3	2,363.4
2024	31,950.9	31,739	30,416.1	1,534.8
2025p	34,765.3	34,014	34,053.0	712.3
Feb 2026p	35,859.1	38,782	35,334.4	~525

Source: Bank of Tanzania Selected Economic Indicators (Table A1) & Table A10 · p = provisional

Positive Trend: Despite rising debt levels, interest arrears have declined sharply from a peak of USD 2,439.7 million in 2022 to approximately USD 524.7 million in February 2026 — a 78% reduction — signalling improved debt management discipline and timely servicing by the Government of Tanzania.

Tenor	Jan-25	Feb-25	Mar-25	Apr-25	Jun-25	Aug-25	Oct-25	Dec-25	Jan-26	Feb-26	YoY Δ (bps)
35-Day	6.50	6.50	6.50	6.50	6.50	6.50	5.64	5.38	5.36	4.75	▼ −175
91-Day	7.76	7.76	7.42	7.50	7.50	7.36	6.08	5.93	5.73	4.97	▼ −279
182-Day	8.20	8.20	8.20	8.47	8.24	7.46	5.92	5.91	5.85	5.85	▼ −235
364-Day	12.63	11.99	10.11	8.92	8.92	6.79	6.45	6.24	6.21	6.20	▼ −579
Overall WAY	12.51	11.93	10.10	8.86	8.89	6.83	6.25	5.87	5.89	5.68	▼ −625

Tenor	Jan-25	Feb-25	Apr-25	Jun-25	Aug-25	Oct-25	Dec-25	Jan-26	Feb-26	YoY Δ (bps)
2-Year Bond	11.64	12.55	12.08	12.08	12.17	10.05	10.05	10.05	10.05	▼ −250
5-Year Bond	12.41	12.41	13.14	12.94	13.18	10.54	10.54	10.54	10.54	▼ −187
7-Year Bond	9.71	9.71	9.71	9.71	9.71	9.71	9.71	9.71	9.71	→ 0
10-Year Bond	14.08	14.08	14.26	14.26	13.74	12.45	12.45	11.30	11.30	▼ −278
15-Year Bond	15.76	15.76	14.63	14.63	13.91	12.08	12.08	12.08	10.78	▼ −498
20-Year Bond	15.71	15.28	15.11	14.50	14.50	13.55	12.02	12.02	12.02	▼ −326
25-Year Bond	15.84	15.84	15.84	14.80	14.42	13.19	13.19	13.19	11.99	▼ −385

Tenor	Jan-25	Feb-25	Apr-25	Jun-25	Aug-25	Oct-25	Dec-25	Jan-26	Feb-26	MoM Δ (bps)
Overnight	7.69	7.87	7.90	7.93	6.15	6.45	6.00	6.13	6.01	▼ −12
2–7 Day	7.74	8.02	7.98	7.96	6.52	6.29	6.30	6.34	6.31	▼ −3
8–14 Day	8.51	8.62	8.08	8.12	6.71	6.92	6.26	6.74	6.83	▲ +9
15–30 Day	8.58	8.77	8.37	6.95	6.87	7.07	6.40	7.06	6.96	▼ −10
31–60 Day	9.03	8.00	8.53	8.53	6.90	7.28	7.20	7.23	7.00	▼ −23
61–90 Day	6.75	7.00	9.11	9.14	9.14	9.14	8.11	9.96	7.00	▼ −296
91–180 Day	7.87	10.42	12.00	12.00	7.00	9.75	8.89	6.75	7.00	▲ +25
181+ Day	10.93	10.93	10.93	10.93	10.93	10.93	10.93	10.93	12.00	▲ +107
Overall IBCM Rate	7.80	8.06	8.00	7.94	6.48	6.38	6.29	6.40	6.34	▼ −6

Rate Type	Feb-25	Mar-25	Apr-25	Dec-25	Jan-26	Feb-26	MoM Δ (bps)
// LENDING RATES
Overall Lending Rate	15.14	15.50	15.16	15.24	15.10	15.11	▲ +1
Short-Term Lending (Up to 1 Yr)	15.77	15.83	16.15	15.46	15.49	15.41	▼ −8
Negotiated Lending Rate	13.42	12.94	12.88	12.38	12.25	12.19	▼ −6
// DEPOSIT RATES
Savings Deposit Rate	2.98	2.86	2.89	3.02	2.94	2.98	▲ +4
Overall Time Deposit Rate	8.13	8.00	7.82	8.36	8.33	8.32	▼ −1
12-Month Deposit Rate	9.48	8.14	9.27	9.58	9.70	9.82	▲ +12
Negotiated Deposit Rate	11.40	10.35	10.52	11.66	11.74	11.48	▼ −26
Short-Term Interest Rate Spread	6.29	7.69	6.88	5.88	5.79	5.59	▼ −20

Tanzania's external debt in one page

What's Next for Tanzania's Economy? The Policy Gaps Keeping USD 1 Trillion Out of Reach by 2050

External debt stock by borrower category

Disbursed external debt by borrower, trend

Borrower share, May 2026

External debt stock by creditor category

External debt stock by creditor category

Creditor share, May 2026

Disbursed outstanding debt by use of funds

Use of funds, percentage share — May 2026

Use of funds, absolute value trend

Disbursed outstanding debt by currency composition

Currency composition, percentage share — May 2026

Currency composition, 12-month trend

Disbursements, debt service & arrears

Disbursements vs. debt service

External debt arrears by creditor — May 2026

What this means for investors and policymakers

1. Concessional tilt supports sustainability

2. Commercial arrears need attention

3. Currency diversification is underway

Related TICGL insights & tools

Tanzania Economic Review — June 2026 (Full Analysis)

Tanzania Government Domestic Debt by Creditor Category

What's Next for Tanzania's Economy? Policy Gaps to 2050

Is Tanzania's Economy Growing?

Opportunities and Risks of Doing Business in Tanzania in 2026

Why Tanzania's Growth Has Not Been Sufficiently Inclusive

Tanzania Business Intelligence Dashboard

Invest in Tanzania — TICGL Investment Advisory

Join TICGL as a Researcher

Deni la Nje la Tanzania — Mkopaji, Matumizi na Sarafu, Mei 2026

Zanzibar's economy in May 2026, at a glance

What's Next for Tanzania's Economy? The Policy Gaps Keeping USD 1 Trillion Out of Reach by 2050

Inflation: food and transport push prices higher

Headline, food & non-food inflation

Inflation by CPI group — May 2026

Government budgetary operations: revenue lags target, deficit widens

Government resources — May 2026

Government expenditure — May 2026

External sector: a widening surplus built on tourism and trade

Current account, year ending May

Imports of goods by category

The clove-export boom driving goods exports

Goods exports by category

Clove exports: value, volume & price

What this means for investors and policymakers

1. Tourism remains the anchor

2. Clove windfall needs a strategy

3. Revenue collection needs strengthening

Related TICGL insights & tools

Tanzania Economic Review — June 2026 (Full Analysis)

Tanzania External Debt: Borrower, Use of Funds & Currency

Tanzania Government Domestic Debt by Creditor Category

What's Next for Tanzania's Economy? Policy Gaps to 2050

Is Tanzania's Economy Growing?

Opportunities and Risks of Doing Business in Tanzania in 2026

Tanzania Business Intelligence Dashboard

Invest in Tanzania — TICGL Investment Advisory

Join TICGL as a Researcher

Uchumi wa Zanzibar — Mei 2026

Tanzania's External Sector: The Year Ending May 2026 at a Glance

What's Next for Tanzania's Economy? The Policy Gaps Keeping TZS 1 Trillion Out of Reach by 2050

1. The Current Account

Chart 1 — Current Account Components, Year Ending May (Millions of USD)

Chart 2 — Current Account Balance: Monthly Snapshot (Millions of USD)

2. Exports: Services Receipts by Category

Chart 3 — Services Receipts by Category, Year Ending May (Millions of USD)

Chart 4 — Composition of Services Receipts, Year Ending May 2026p

3. Imports: Services Payments by Category

Chart 5 — Services Payments by Category, Year Ending May (Millions of USD)

Chart 6 — Composition of Services Payments, Year Ending May 2026p

4. Net Services Balance by Category

Chart 7 — Net Services Balance by Category, Year Ending May 2026p (Millions of USD)

5. Foreign Exchange Reserves: The Financing Context

Related TICGL Economic Research & Tools

What's Next for Tanzania's Economy? The Policy Gaps Keeping TZS 1 Trillion Out of Reach by 2050

Tanzania Central Government Revenue & Expenditure — April 2026

Is Tanzania's Economy Growing?

What Opportunities and Risks Define Doing Business in Tanzania in 2026?