TICGL

| Economic Consulting Group

TICGL | Economic Consulting Group

This research provides an in-depth look at the trends in foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows into Tanzania, revealing both stability and fluctuations over recent years. Quarterly FDI ranged from $216 million to $521.8 million, with an annual average between $1.4 billion and $2 billion. The data reflects Tanzania's appeal as an investment destination in key sectors like mining and infrastructure, driven by favorable policies and economic resilience. These figures underscore the importance of policy stability in sustaining investor confidence and maximizing FDI's positive impact on economic growth.

Key Figures and Averages

  1. Quarterly Inflows: FDI inflows in Tanzania ranged from $216 million to $521.8 million per quarter. Specifically:
    • 2017-2019: Average quarterly inflows were between $354 million and $390 million.
    • 2020-2023: There was variability, with figures dropping closer to $216 million in some quarters but peaking around $521.8 million during other periods.
  2. Annual Average: On an annual basis, the figures suggest that FDI averaged around $1.4 billion to $2 billion, though fluctuations occurred due to external economic factors and internal investment policies.

Observed Trends and Breakdown

Insights

  1. Investment Resilience: Despite some fluctuations, Tanzania maintained significant FDI inflows, underlining its appeal in key sectors.
  2. Policy Implications: Continued growth in FDI, especially in sectors such as infrastructure and natural resources, reflects favorable policy environments. Strengthening policies could further stabilize and grow FDI.
  3. Investor Confidence: The trends suggest a generally positive outlook, with investor confidence likely driven by Tanzania’s economic reforms and strategic regional position.

Overall, these FDI figures underscore Tanzania's potential as an attractive investment destination, though maintaining and increasing FDI may require attention to both policy stability and global economic conditions.

The data on foreign direct investments (FDI) into Tanzania highlights several key aspects of the country's economic landscape:

  1. Attractiveness as an Investment Destination: The steady inflow of FDI, even with some fluctuations, indicates that Tanzania remains an appealing destination for international investors. This is likely due to its natural resources, strategic location, and the potential for growth in sectors such as mining, energy, and infrastructure.
  2. Economic Resilience and Growth Potential: The resilience of FDI inflows, especially amid global economic challenges, speaks to Tanzania’s underlying economic strengths. This flow of capital can support economic diversification, infrastructure development, and job creation, driving long-term growth.
  3. Impact of Policy and Stability: The stability of FDI inflows often reflects investor confidence in Tanzania’s regulatory environment and economic policies. Periods of high FDI inflows may coincide with favorable policies, while declines can indicate investor caution. Consistent FDI growth suggests effective policy frameworks, while fluctuations highlight areas for policy reinforcement to sustain investor confidence.
  4. Sectoral and Regional Benefits: Significant FDI inflows suggest that sectors such as energy, construction, and mining attract substantial investment. This brings benefits to these industries and regions, stimulating regional development, technology transfer, and skill-building, which can positively impact the broader economy.
  5. Foreign Exchange and Financial Stability: FDI also bolsters Tanzania’s foreign exchange reserves, helping to stabilize the currency and reducing reliance on foreign debt. This can improve Tanzania’s balance of payments and contribute to greater financial stability.
  6. Opportunity for Policy Enhancement: The data implies that policy measures aimed at improving the investment climate—such as streamlined regulations, tax incentives, and improved infrastructure—could help attract even more FDI. Such policies could ensure Tanzania remains competitive and encourage sustainable, long-term investments.

In sum, the trends in FDI inflows reflect Tanzania's position as a significant investment destination, capable of attracting capital that can drive development and economic growth while highlighting opportunities for enhancing investment conditions.

Business Environment and Economic Growth

Tanzania’s tax reforms and policy adjustments have significantly shaped the business landscape and economic trajectory. These reforms have enhanced revenue collection while identifying policy areas that, with adjustments, could spur further growth and broaden Tanzania’s investment opportunities.

1. Current Taxation Landscape in Tanzania

In 2023/2024, Tanzania’s tax revenue reached approximately TZS 27.64 trillion, showing a robust 14.47% growth from the previous year. Major revenue contributions came from services (28.2%), trade (23.6%), and manufacturing (17.7%). Although recent reforms have increased collection efficiency, compliance costs remain a challenge, averaging 2% of annual revenue for businesses, particularly small and medium enterprises (SMEs). This burden can hinder growth and disincentivize formalization within the economy, impacting the government's ability to capture potential tax revenues.

2. Policy and Regulatory Challenges

Tanzania’s regulatory and tax framework presents complexities that are particularly challenging for SMEs. Despite recent improvements, the World Bank’s Ease of Doing Business Index (2024) scores Tanzania at 59, indicating moderate entry barriers. While comprehensive, the regulatory environment's high compliance costs and complexity rank Tanzania at 162 out of 190 for tax compliance ease. These burdens limit profitability for many businesses, especially SMEs, reducing available resources for reinvestment.

3. Foreign Direct Investment and Sectoral Growth Potential

In 2023/2024, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) inflows reached approximately USD 1.5 billion, with strong interest in sectors such as energy, mining, and agriculture. With targeted policy reforms, FDI could increase at an annual rate of 10%, reaching an estimated USD 2.8 billion by 2030. Additionally, sectoral growth projections, such as an annual increase of 6-8% in agriculture and 7% in manufacturing, indicate a promising outlook if policies continue to incentivize investment and tax compliance.

4. Role of Key Stakeholders in Driving Tax Compliance and Economic Growth

The Tanzania Revenue Authority (TRA) is essential in enforcing tax compliance through initiatives like taxpayer education and digital tax solutions, such as Electronic Fiscal Devices (EFDs), which ensure real-time tracking and transparency. Local Government Authorities (LGAs) also play a role, especially in formalizing the informal sector through local levies. Industry organizations, including the Tanzania Private Sector Foundation (TPSF) and Confederation of Tanzanian Industries (CTI), advocate for policies that streamline tax compliance and reduce SME burdens to foster sectoral growth and economic resilience.

5. Key Figures: Projections for 2030

If current reforms continue, Tanzania's total tax revenue could increase from TZS 27.64 trillion in 2023/2024 to TZS 40 trillion by 2030. A reduction in compliance costs to 1.5% of revenue could free up resources for business expansion. Additionally, with a projected Ease of Doing Business Score increase to 70 by 2030, Tanzania’s economic environment is expected to be more attractive for investment, supporting sustained growth across key sectors.

Economic IndicatorCurrent (2023/2024)Projected (2030)Growth Rate
Total Tax Revenue (TZS trillion)27.64408%
FDI Inflows (USD billion)1.52.810%
Compliance Cost (% of revenue)21.5Decrease
Ease of Doing Business Score5970Increase

Conclusion

Through targeted tax reforms, Tanzania can strengthen its tax revenue base, reduce compliance costs, and enhance its attractiveness as an investment destination. This will drive sustainable economic growth, create jobs, and improve Tanzania’s competitiveness within the East African region. For these reforms to succeed, collaboration among government agencies, private sector organizations, and civil society is crucial to establishing an inclusive economic environment that benefits all Tanzanians.

Tanzania's economic outlook for 2024 shows strong growth potential, with a projected GDP increase of 5.4%, significantly higher than the 3% average for Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). As part of the East African Community (EAC), which is forecasted to grow by 4.7% in 2024, Tanzania benefits from macroeconomic stability and strategic investments in infrastructure, particularly in energy, telecommunications, and transport. These investments, combined with stable inflation, are expected to boost private consumption and investment. However, Tanzania's public debt is projected to rise from 42.5% to 48.4% of GDP, reflecting infrastructure spending, while the fiscal deficit is expected to stabilize at 3.3% of GDP. Risks remain, especially around rising debt and climate-related challenges like droughts and floods, which could impact agriculture and economic stability. Despite these risks, Tanzania's growth prospects remain robust in comparison to other SSA countries.

1. Growth Outlook

2. Growth Environment

3. Macroeconomic Performance

4. Risk Outlook

Tanzania's economic position relative to other Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries

Tanzania's economy is performing well relative to other Sub-Saharan African countries, with solid growth prospects and important investments. However, the country must address challenges related to debt and climate change to ensure that growth is sustainable.

  1. Tanzania’s Strong Growth Outlook: With a projected GDP growth of 5.4% in 2024, Tanzania is set to grow much faster than the Sub-Saharan African average of 3%. This positions Tanzania as one of the leading economies in the region, especially within the East African Community (EAC) where growth is also expected to be robust.
  2. Growth Environment: Tanzania benefits from macroeconomic stability and is making significant investments in energy, transport, and telecommunications. These investments are crucial for reducing productivity bottlenecks and fostering economic expansion. Stable inflation will also boost private consumption and investment, further enhancing growth.
  3. Macroeconomic Performance: Tanzania's debt level is rising but remains relatively manageable. The government is using this debt to finance critical infrastructure, which is essential for long-term economic development. The country’s fiscal deficit is also improving, suggesting prudent fiscal management.
  4. Risk Outlook: Despite its positive growth outlook, Tanzania faces risks related to its rising debt levels, which could become a burden if not managed properly. Additionally, climate-related risks such as droughts and floods, which are common in SSA, pose threats to Tanzania’s agricultural sector and overall economic stability.

Source: Africa’s Pulse October 2024 report

Global growth is projected to stabilize at 2.6% in 2024, with only a slight rise to 2.7% by 2026, falling below the pre-pandemic average of 3.1%. Advanced economies are expected to grow by 1.5% in 2024, while Emerging Markets and Developing Economies (EMDEs) will see 4.0% growth, driven by regions like South Asia, with India leading at 6.6%. Low-income countries are forecasted to grow by 5.0% in 2024. Key risks include geopolitical tensions, high interest rates, and debt stress, particularly for EMDEs, which may hinder recovery.

1. Global Growth Overview

2. Advanced Economies

3. Emerging Markets and Developing Economies (EMDEs)

4. Growth in Low-Income Countries (LICs)

5. Global Growth Risks

Key Takeaways:

Source: Global Economic Prospects June 2024 report

Tanzania's economy is projected to grow at a solid rate of 5-6% in 2024, outpacing Sub-Saharan Africa’s average growth of 3.5%. Key drivers of this growth include agriculture (28% of GDP), mining, and a recovering tourism sector. While global inflation, energy prices (with oil at $84 per barrel), and fiscal pressures pose risks, Tanzania’s inflation is expected to remain moderate compared to regional peers. Public debt remains sustainable, supported by large infrastructure projects like the Standard Gauge Railway. However, climate risks and global trade disruptions could impact future growth if not managed carefully.

1. Regional Context: Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA)

2. Tanzania’s Growth Outlook

3. Inflation and Fiscal Pressures in Tanzania

4. Public Debt and Investment

5. Risks to Tanzania’s Economic Growth

6. Tanzania’s Policy Responses

Key Figures for Tanzania (based on SSA and global trends):

Summary:

Source: Global Economic Prospects June 2024 report

Global growth is projected to stabilize at 2.6% in 2024, rising to 2.7% by 2025-2026, which is slower than the pre-COVID average of 3.1%. Emerging Market and Developing Economies (EMDEs) are forecasted to grow at 4.0% in 2024, with Sub-Saharan Africa growing at 3.5%. Global inflation is expected to moderate to 3.5%, though it will remain above pre-pandemic levels, especially in EMDEs. Oil prices are set to average $84 per barrel in 2024, while non-energy commodity prices remain stable. Risks to growth include geopolitical tensions and high debt distress in 40% of EMDEs.

  1. Global Growth:
    • Global GDP growth is projected to stabilize at 2.6% in 2024, with an expected increase to 2.7% in 2025-2026. This growth is slower than the 3.1% average in the decade before COVID-19​.
    • By 2026, 80% of the world’s population will experience slower growth compared to pre-pandemic levels.
  2. Regional Growth:
    • Emerging Market and Developing Economies (EMDEs) are forecast to grow at 4.0% in 2024, down from 4.2% in 2023. China’s growth is expected to slow to 4.8% in 2024.
    • Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to grow at 3.5% in 2024, with a rise to 4.0% in 2026​.
  3. Global Inflation:
    • Inflation is projected to moderate to 3.5% globally in 2024, but it will remain higher than pre-pandemic levels​.
    • Inflation in EMDEs is expected to decline but will remain challenging for many regions due to commodity price fluctuations.
  4. Commodity Prices:
    • Oil prices are projected to be slightly higher in 2024, averaging $84 per barrel, but lower than 2023 prices​.
    • Prices for non-energy commodities are expected to remain stable​.
  5. Risks to Global Growth:
    • Escalating geopolitical tensions and trade fragmentation pose significant risks to global growth.
    • Debt distress risks remain high for 40% of EMDEs, with many economies vulnerable to shocks​.

Source: Global Economic Prospects June 2024 report

Addressed Infrastructure, Regulatory Efficiency, and Public Service Challenges

The Business Ready 2024 report provides an assessment of Tanzania's business environment based on three key pillars: Regulatory Framework, Public Services, and Operational Efficiency

  1. Regulatory Framework: Tanzania scored 65.00 points, placing it in the third quintile, meaning its regulatory environment is moderately favorable. This includes regulations that govern business entry, labor, taxation, and financial services, though there is room for improvement in areas like market competition and insolvency.

What it Means: The Regulatory Framework pillar focuses on the laws, rules, and regulations that businesses must follow in Tanzania. A score of 65.00 indicates that while the regulatory environment is moderately favorable, it still has areas that need improvement.

What is Measured: This pillar assesses the rules, laws, and regulations that businesses must follow as they enter, operate, and exit the market. It focuses on whether these regulations are clear, fair, and supportive of entrepreneurial activity.

Key Areas Measured:

What It Tells About Tanzania:

  1. Public Services: Tanzania's score for public services is 51.56 points, placing it in the fourth quintile. This reflects challenges in public service provision that support businesses, including utility services and government institutions related to business regulation.

What it Means: This pillar evaluates the quality of government-provided services that help businesses comply with regulations, such as utility services (electricity, water), online tax services, and other government support structures.

What is Measured: This pillar looks at the quality of public services provided by the government that are necessary for businesses to function, including utility services, government transparency, and the infrastructure that supports business compliance with regulations.

Key Areas Measured:

What It Tells About Tanzania:

  1. Operational Efficiency: Tanzania performed better in operational efficiency with a score of 62.15 points, placing it in the third quintile. This category measures how efficiently businesses can comply with regulations and access public services.

What it Means: The Operational Efficiency pillar measures how easy it is for businesses to comply with regulations and access services. Tanzania’s score in this pillar suggests that businesses face some challenges but generally have moderate success in navigating the regulatory landscape and accessing the services they need.

What is Measured: This pillar evaluates how easy it is for businesses to comply with the regulatory framework and access public services. It measures the practical implementation of the rules and services described under the first two pillars.

Key Areas Measured:

What It Tells About Tanzania:

Tanzania's scores in the Business Ready 2024 report provide valuable insights into the country's economic development by highlighting strengths and challenges in its business environment. Here's a breakdown of what these figures reveal about Tanzania's economic development:

1. Regulatory Framework (Score: 65.00)

2. Public Services (Score: 51.56)

3. Operational Efficiency (Score: 62.15)

Overall Economic Development Insights:

Strategic Recommendations for Economic Development:

  1. Invest in Infrastructure: Improving utility services, especially reliable electricity and internet access, will lower operational costs and improve productivity across sectors, boosting overall economic growth.
  2. Strengthen the Legal and Regulatory Environment: Enhancing regulations related to market competition, insolvency, and business disputes will create a more favorable environment for entrepreneurship and innovation, encouraging more domestic and foreign investment.
  3. Improve Public Service Delivery: Streamlining processes such as tax filing, permit issuance, and customs procedures through digitalization would significantly reduce the cost of doing business and improve Tanzania’s global competitiveness.
Business Ready 2024 Executive SummaryDownload

TICGL | Business Class
TICGL | Tanzania Investment and Consultant Group Ltd Dar es Salaam, Tanzania

TICGL | Business Class

Empowering Businesses With Insight, Strategy, and Growth

A premium knowledge and advisory platform designed to equip entrepreneurs, SMEs, corporate leaders, and investors with the tools they need to thrive in Tanzania's evolving economic landscape.

TICGL | Business Class provides high-value insights, expert analysis, and tailored learning experiences that turn information into strategic advantage. We offer curated economic intelligence, business development support, and capacity-building programs that help organizations make informed decisions, strengthen operations, and unlock new growth opportunities.

Through specialized programs, masterclasses, market briefings, and strategic advisory content, TICGL | Business Class bridges the gap between knowledge and action—supporting both emerging and established businesses across sectors.

Key Features

Market & Economic Insights

Clear, data-driven updates on Tanzania's economic trends, sector analyses, and business climate assessments.

Capacity-Building Programs

Expert-led workshops, masterclasses, and online courses tailored for entrepreneurs, SMEs, and corporate teams.

Strategic Advisory Content

Actionable strategies for improving business performance, competitiveness, and sustainability.

SME Growth Support

Practical guidance on taxation, compliance, investment readiness, and business development.

Networking & Community

A professional space for business leaders to connect, collaborate, and share ideas.

Why TICGL | Business Class?

Trusted economic think tank & advisory firm

Real economic data and policy analysis

Tailored for Tanzanian businesses

Practical impact, not just theory

Long-term competitiveness

Sustainable growth strategies

Who Can Join?

Private Companies

SMEs & Startups

Entrepreneurs

Corporate Teams

Public Institutions

Membership & Pricing

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FREEAll Programs

TICGL Economic Think Tank members attend all programs free of charge.

Learn More

Individual

TZS 120,000Per Program

For solo entrepreneurs building their business.

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TZS 250,000Per Program

For small and medium enterprises.

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Corporate Team

TZS 520,000Per Program (Up to 5)

Best value for company teams.

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Program Package

1

In-depth content on taxation, compliance, financial planning, market analysis, and business strategy

2

Professional facilitation by TICGL economists and business strategists

3

Reading materials and practical toolkits for continued learning

4

Case studies and hands-on exercises tailored to your sector

5

Dedicated business support desk during the program period

6

Access to program recordings for future reference

Certificate of Participation

Available upon completion for an additional fee (not included in program cost).

Program Duration

Programs run 1 to 3 days depending on content depth. Full details provided before registration.

Contact Information

For registration, inquiries, and partnerships

Head Office

Dar es Salaam, Tanzania
+255 768 699 002
+255 734 862 343
admin@ticgl.com
www.ticgl.com

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As of the period ending on December 31, 2023, both NMB Bank and CRDB Bank have exhibited notable financial performance, reflecting various key metrics that are indicative of their operational strength and market presence.

NMB Bank reported total assets amounting to 12.2 trillion Tanzania Shillings, representing a remarkable 19% growth. This increase underscores the bank's ability to expand its asset base, possibly through effective investment strategies or successful acquisition initiatives. On the other hand, CRDB Bank demonstrated a total asset growth of 14%, reaching 13.2 trillion Tanzania Shillings. Although slightly lower than NMB Bank's growth rate, this still signifies a substantial increase in the bank's overall financial standing.

In terms of total deposits, NMB Bank recorded 8.4 trillion Tanzania Shillings, marking an 11% growth. This suggests a consistent influx of funds into the bank, likely driven by customer trust and effective deposit mobilization efforts. CRDB Bank, while also experiencing growth, posted a total deposit figure of 8.9 trillion Tanzania Shillings, reflecting an 8% increase. This showcases the bank's ability to attract and retain deposits, albeit at a slightly lower growth rate compared to NMB Bank.

Loan and advances, a critical aspect of banking operations, showed significant growth for both institutions. NMB Bank reported a loan and advances portfolio of 7.7 trillion Tanzania Shillings, reflecting a substantial 28% increase. This growth may indicate the bank's proactive approach in extending credit facilities to businesses and individuals. Similarly, CRDB Bank exhibited a robust performance in this area with a loan and advances portfolio of 8.5 trillion Tanzania Shillings, reflecting a commendable 23% growth.

Moving on to profitability, NMB Bank demonstrated strong financial results. The bank reported a profit before tax of 775 billion Tanzania Shillings, indicating a notable 26% increase. Additionally, the profit after tax for NMB Bank amounted to 542 billion Tanzania Shillings, reflecting a similar 26% growth. These figures underscore the bank's ability to generate profits efficiently, possibly through effective cost management and revenue generation strategies.

CRDB Bank, while also delivering positive financial results, exhibited a profit before tax of 599 billion Tanzania Shillings, showing a 20% increase. The profit after tax for CRDB Bank stood at 424 billion Tanzania Shillings, reflecting a 21% growth. These figures indicate the bank's capacity to maintain solid profitability, although at a slightly lower growth rate compared to NMB Bank.

Hence, both NMB Bank and CRDB Bank demonstrated commendable financial performance for the period ended December 31, 2023, with NMB Bank showcasing higher growth rates in key areas such as total assets, total deposits, loan and advances, as well as profitability. These financial indicators provide valuable insights into the operational efficiency and market competitiveness of the two banks during the specified period.

The health and competitiveness of these banks in the Tanzania financial sector:

The financial data reveals that both NMB Bank and CRDB Bank are robust financial institutions, with NMB Bank showcasing higher growth rates in key areas. Investors, regulators, and other stakeholders may use this information to assess the banks' financial health, operational strategies, and overall market competitiveness.

Asset Growth and Stability:

NMB Bank has shown a higher growth rate in total assets (19%) compared to CRDB Bank (14%). This suggests that NMB Bank has been successful in expanding its asset base, possibly through strategic investments or acquisitions, making it a key player in the market.

Deposit Mobilization:

Both banks experienced growth in total deposits, indicating the ability to attract and retain customer funds. NMB Bank's 11% growth in deposits may suggest effective deposit mobilization efforts, while CRDB Bank, with an 8% growth, also demonstrated strength in this area but at a slightly lower rate.

Lending Activities:

Both banks exhibited substantial growth in loan and advances portfolios, suggesting active participation in lending to businesses and individuals. NMB Bank's 28% growth and CRDB Bank's 23% growth in this category indicate a willingness to extend credit and support economic activities.

Profitability:

NMB Bank reported higher growth rates in both profit before tax (26%) and profit after tax (26%) compared to CRDB Bank, which reported a 20% growth in profit before tax and a 21% growth in profit after tax. This signifies that NMB Bank was more efficient in managing costs or generating revenues during the specified period.

Overall Competitiveness:

The data suggests that NMB Bank had a relatively stronger financial performance during this period, with higher growth rates in key metrics. However, CRDB Bank also demonstrated positive growth across various parameters, indicating its stability and competitiveness in the market.

Market Positioning:

NMB Bank's higher growth rates across multiple financial indicators might position it as a more dynamic and rapidly growing institution. CRDB Bank, while still showing positive growth, might be perceived as slightly more conservative or stable in its approach.

The forecasting performance in the coming year (2024) requires consideration of various factors, including economic conditions, regulatory changes, and the banks' strategic initiatives.

Growth Trajectory:

nmb-q4-2023Download
crdb-q4-2023Download
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