TICGL/TERI - Tanzania Economic Update, 30 October 2026
TICGL/TERI Economic ResearchTanzania Economic UpdateData to September 2026Monthly Review
Tanzania Economic Update, October 2026: Prices Anchored, Credit Booming, and an External Position Tested by Oil
Headline inflation held at 4.3% in September 2026, but food inflation fell from 7.0% to 3.9% while transport inflation jumped from 2.1% to 14.0%. The Bank of Tanzania raised the Central Bank Rate to 6.25%, private credit is growing 34.2%, and the 12-month current account deficit widened 27.6% to USD 2.40 billion as petroleum imports rose 72.3%. This page turns the Bank of Tanzania Monthly Economic Review, October 2026 into a tabbed, chart-led update on global conditions, inflation, money and credit, financial markets, fiscal and debt, the external sector and Zanzibar, then reads what it means for the months ahead.
📅 Period: September 2026 data, FY2026/27 July budget outturn📍 Tanzania Mainland and Zanzibar🏛️ TICGL / TERI Economic Research Division📖 Source: Bank of Tanzania Monthly Economic Review, October 2026 (with NBS, MoF, TRA, World Bank)
Headline inflation, Sep-26
4.3% unchanged vs Aug
Central Bank Rate, Q3 2026
6.25% +50 bp
Private sector credit growth
34.2% y/y, TZS 56.4T
Current account deficit, 12m
USD 2.40B +27.6%
Source: Bank of Tanzania Monthly Economic Review, October 2026 (Tables 2.1.1, 2.2.1, 2.7.1, A1-A10). Contribution estimates, shares, changes, ratios and scenario figures are TICGL/TERI arithmetic on the published figures; see Sources & Data Notes.
Scope
Prepared by TERI for research and strategic-information purposes; it is not investment, legal, tax or financial advice. All figures come from the Bank of Tanzania Monthly Economic Review, October 2026 and the agencies it cites (NBS, Ministry of Finance, Tanzania Revenue Authority, World Bank, Zanzibar Office of the Chief Government Statistician). Where two tables in the review differ, both are shown with their source.
00 — Overview & VerdictExecutive Summary: A Stable Headline With Pressure Building Underneath
The answer
Tanzania's headline numbers are calm; the composition is not. Inflation held at 4.3%, inside the 3–5% target, but the driver changed: food inflation fell from 7.0% to 3.9% while transport inflation rose from 2.1% to 14.0% and services inflation from 1.3% to 6.1%. Core inflation is 4.1%, up from 2.2% a year ago.
Policy tightened a little; credit did not slow. The Central Bank Rate rose 50 basis points to 6.25%, yet private sector credit grew 34.2% to TZS 56.4 trillion and extended broad money (M3) 25.9%. Private credit explains about 96% of the TZS 15.0 trillion rise in M3 over the year, while net foreign assets fell 17.3%.
Oil, not weak exports, widened the external gap. The 12-month current account deficit grew 27.6% to USD 2.40 billion. Petroleum imports rose USD 1.60 billion (+72.3%), more than the USD 1.29 billion extra earned from gold. Exports of goods and services still grew 19.9% and September alone showed a USD 421 million monthly surplus.
Fiscal strength is real; debt-service strain is rising. July revenue beat target by 9.5%, but interest costs ran 33.7% above estimate and development spending ran 7.4% below estimate. External debt arrears doubled in a year to USD 1.20 billion.
Headline inflation
4.3%
Sep-26, unchanged; target 3–5%
Core inflation
4.1%
vs 2.2% in Sep-25
Transport inflation
14.0%
vs 2.1% in Sep-25; weight 14.1%
Central Bank Rate
6.25%
from 5.75%; corridor 4.75–7.75%
Private credit growth
+34.2%
TZS 56,359B; M3 +25.9%
Current account deficit
USD 2,397.5M
12m to Sep-26, +27.6%
Reserves
USD 6,031.9M
4.3 months of imports (4.9 end-2025)
Exports of goods & services
USD 21,065M
+19.9%; gold USD 5.8B
July 2026 revenue
TZS 3,502B
+9.5% above target
External debt arrears
USD 1,197M
+105% in 12 months
Domestic debt
TZS 41.1T
+9.8% y/y; 89.6% securities
TZS per USD, Sep-26
2,654.91
+7.4% depreciation y/y
Where Growth Is Running: Key Year-on-Year Rates
Percent, year to September 2026 (stocks and 12-month flows). Amber bars are the fast-growing pressure points. Source: BoT MER October 2026; TICGL/TERI calc. for gold.
Annual Inflation by Main Group: One Year Ago vs Now
Percent. Food has cooled; transport, energy and services have heated. Source: BoT MER, Table 2.1.1.
Growth, Inflation and Credit, 2018–2025
Percent. Real GDP growth (bars), CPI inflation and growth of credit to the private sector (lines). 2025 provisional. Source: BoT MER Table A1.
The review in eight lines
Area
Evidence (September 2026 unless stated)
Reading
Prices
Headline 4.3%; core 4.1%; food 3.9%; energy, fuel and utilities 7.8%; transport 14.0%; services 6.1%
Inflation 4.3% (5.6% in Aug); current account surplus USD 986.8M (+18.7%); cloves USD 38.0M vs 6.2M
Resilient, clove-aided
Table 0.1. Source: BoT MER October 2026. Readings are TICGL/TERI judgements.
Key findings
Stable headline, new drivers. Annual food inflation fell 3.1 points while transport inflation rose almost 12 points; on base-year weights transport now contributes about 2.0 points to the 4.3% headline, up from 0.3 a year ago.
Core inflation has doubled. From 2.2% to 4.1% in a year, and services inflation from 1.3% to 6.1%; the BoT says core is now the primary driver of headline (3.1 of 4.3 points).
Credit is the engine of money growth. Private credit added TZS 14.4 trillion to M3 over the year; net foreign assets subtracted TZS 2.7 trillion.
Credit is broad-based but fast. Eight sector series grew 17.7–78.3%; transport and communication, trade and agriculture lead; personal loans remain the largest share at 33.9%.
Oil is the swing factor abroad. Crude averaged USD 102.3/barrel in September (+21.2% m/m); Tanzania's petroleum import bill is up USD 1.6 billion a year.
Fiscal outturn is strong but lopsided. Import taxes and local VAT/excise beat estimates; income tax and grants missed; interest and other recurrent spending overshot while development spending undershot.
Arrears are the quiet risk. Principal arrears more than doubled to USD 867.5 million, with commercial creditors up from USD 184.5 million to USD 549.6 million.
Zanzibar is steadier but its goods exports are now 58% cloves, a cyclical crop.
Bottom line
Tanzania enters the last quarter of 2026 with anchored headline prices, a liquid financial system, a strong revenue start to the fiscal year and a growing export base. The pressures are second-round inflation from fuel, a credit expansion that is several times faster than nominal GDP, a larger oil bill against reserve cover of 4.3 months, and creditor arrears that have doubled. The task for the next six months is containment: keep core inflation from drifting above 5%, keep credit quality visible, and clear arrears before they become a market-access cost.
01 — Global & CommoditiesA Resilient World Economy, a Middle East Energy Shock
The BoT review opens with a global economy that is "resilient but uneven". The IMF's October 2026 World Economic Outlook lifted 2026 global growth to 3.1% from 3.0%, helped by resilient demand, private-sector adaptation and AI investment that is expected to offset the Middle East energy shock. Sub-Saharan Africa was revised up to 4.5% from 4.3% on better terms of trade for oil exporters, but oil importers such as Tanzania face elevated energy costs.
Forecast (2026 growth)
Latest
Previous
Source and note
World
3.1%
3.0%
IMF WEO October vs July 2026
Advanced economies
2.1%
n/a
Bolstered by US performance
Emerging market and developing economies
3.7%
n/a
India offsets weaker China
Sub-Saharan Africa
4.5%
4.3%
Oil exporters gain; oil importers face headwinds
OECD world
2.9%
2.8%
OECD September vs June 2026
Table 1.0. Source: BoT MER October 2026, Chapter 1.
2026 Growth Forecasts: Latest vs Previous
Percent. IMF October vs July (world, SSA); OECD September vs June. Advanced and emerging groups shown as latest only. Source: BoT MER.
Crude Oil: Average, Brent and Dubai, Aug-25 to Sep-26
USD per barrel. The March–May 2026 spike and the September rebound to USD 102.3 follow Middle East tensions. Source: World Bank Pink Sheet via BoT Table A8.
September 2026 commodity moves
Commodity
Unit
Aug-26
Sep-26
Change
Why it matters to Tanzania
Crude oil, average
USD/barrel
84.4
102.3
+21.2%
Pump prices, transport costs, import bill
Natural gas, Europe
USD/mmbtu
21.11
25.42
+20.4%
LNG market tightness; fertilizer inputs
Gold
USD/troy oz
4,411
4,319
−2.1%
Largest export; BoT gold purchase programme
Wheat, US HRW
USD/tonne
330
347.0
+5.2%
Bread, flour and milling costs
Sugar, world
USD/kg
0.38
0.41
+7.9%
Food inflation; industrial sugar imports
Palm oil
USD/tonne
1,117
1,180
+5.6%
Edible oil import prices
Coffee, Arabica
USD/kg
7.97
7.26
−8.9%
Export earnings from coffee
Coffee, Robusta
USD/kg
3.98
3.69
−7.3%
Export earnings from coffee
DAP fertilizer
USD/tonne
793.5
800.6
+0.9%
Input costs for the 2026/27 season
Urea fertilizer
USD/tonne
390.0
407.5
+4.5%
Input costs for the 2026/27 season
Table 1.1. Source: World Bank Commodity Price Data (Pink Sheet) via BoT MER Table 1.1 and Table A8. "Change" is September over August.
Monthly Change in Selected Commodity Prices
Percent, September over August 2026. Energy and grains up; coffee and gold down. Source: BoT MER Table 1.1.
Gold Price, Aug-25 to Sep-26
USD per troy ounce. Peaked at USD 5,020 in February 2026 and eased to USD 4,319 in September. Source: World Bank via BoT Table A8.
Fertilizer Prices: Urea and DAP
USD per tonne. Urea spiked to USD 857 in April 2026 and has settled near USD 400; DAP is still near its 14-month high of USD 801. Source: World Bank via BoT Table A8.
Coffee Prices: Arabica and Robusta
USD per kg. Both have retreated from late-2025 highs; Tanzania's coffee export earnings fell in the year to September. Source: World Bank via BoT Table A8.
Global inflation and what it means for Tanzania
Global inflation stayed elevated in September on energy costs. Advanced-economy inflation, especially in the United States and the euro area, rose and central banks signalled tighter policy if price pressures persist. Among emerging markets, inflation edged up in India (weather and oil) and China (energy, partly offset by lower food prices). Within the EAC and SADC, inflation was divergent but mostly inside regional convergence criteria (the EAC ceiling is 8%).
Channel
Direction
Evidence in the review
Import costs and inflation
Negative
Elevated energy and fertilizer prices raise import costs and domestic price pressure; BoT flags a possible tighter stance.
Export earnings
Positive
Firmer agricultural prices and stronger regional demand are expected to support export earnings.
Gold terms of trade
Mixed
Gold eased 2.1% in September but remains far above 2025 levels (USD 3,368 in Aug-25).
Downside risks
Elevated
Prolonged Middle East conflict, trade-route disruption, El Niño effects on farm output and food supply.
Reading
The global backdrop is better than feared on growth but worse on prices. For Tanzania the energy shock is the transmission line: it shows up first in transport inflation, next in the import bill and current account, and then in monetary policy.
02 — InflationOn Target, but the Engine Has Changed From Food to Transport and Services
Headline inflation was 4.3% in September 2026, unchanged from August and inside the 3–5% national target; it was 3.4% a year ago. The BoT attributes the stability to moderation in energy, fuel and utilities inflation, which partly offset a slight rise in food inflation. Inflation is projected to stay elevated in the coming months on Middle East tensions and El Niño-related Vuli rains, but within the target and regional benchmarks, helped by surplus food production from the 2025/26 harvest.
Main group
Weight
Sep-25
Aug-26
Sep-26
Change y/y (pts)
m/m Sep-26
Food and non-alcoholic beverages
28.2
7.0
3.7
3.9
−3.1
−0.5
Alcoholic beverages and tobacco
1.9
3.6
1.5
1.1
−2.5
0.2
Clothing and footwear
10.8
1.9
1.8
1.7
−0.2
0.1
Housing, water, electricity, gas and fuels
15.1
2.3
2.5
2.5
+0.2
0.3
Furnishings and household maintenance
7.9
2.8
2.6
2.6
−0.2
0.5
Health
2.5
1.2
1.5
1.4
+0.2
0.0
Transport
14.1
2.1
13.8
14.0
+11.9
1.1
Information and communication
5.4
0.2
1.5
1.5
+1.3
0.0
Recreation, sports and culture
1.6
0.8
0.7
0.5
−0.3
−0.3
Education services
2.0
2.9
3.2
3.2
+0.3
0.0
Restaurants and accommodation
6.6
1.0
3.0
2.9
+1.9
0.0
Insurance and financial services
2.1
0.4
0.2
0.2
−0.2
0.0
Personal care and miscellaneous
2.1
2.3
3.3
3.3
+1.0
0.0
All items (headline)
100.0
3.4
4.3
4.3
+0.9
0.1
Core
73.9
2.2
4.1
4.1
+1.9
0.4
Non-core
26.1
6.7
4.8
4.9
−1.8
−0.5
Energy, fuel and utilities
5.7
3.7
8.5
7.8
+4.1
0.2
Services
37.2
1.3
5.9
6.1
+4.8
0.6
Goods
62.8
4.7
3.5
3.4
−1.3
−0.2
Table 2.1. Annual inflation, percent, base 2020 = 100. Source: BoT MER Table 2.1.1 (NBS); "change y/y" is TICGL/TERI arithmetic.
Twelve-Month Inflation: Headline, Core, Food, Energy and Transport
Percent, Sep-25 to Sep-26. Transport steps up from April 2026; food steps down through June. Source: BoT MER Table A9(i), A9(ii).
Contribution to Headline Inflation: BoT Decomposition
Percentage points, Sep-25 vs Sep-26. Unprocessed food falls from 1.6 to 0.8; core rises from 1.6 to 3.1; energy is the balance (0.2 to 0.4, TICGL arithmetic). Source: BoT MER Chart 2.1.5.
Annual Inflation by Group, September 2026
Percent, sorted. Transport is the outlier; energy and services follow. Source: BoT MER Table 2.1.1.
Approximate Contribution by Group: Sep-25 vs Sep-26
Percentage points, weight × annual rate. Food 1.97 → 1.10; transport 0.30 → 1.97. TICGL/TERI estimate on base-year weights (the BoT chart uses a different decomposition).
Month-on-Month Inflation, 2026
Percent. Headline (bars) and transport (line). The April 2026 transport jump of 5.2% is the biggest single-month move in the series. Source: BoT MER Table A9(iii), A9(iv).
Services vs Goods Inflation
Percent. Services inflation rose from 1.3% to 6.1% while goods inflation fell from 4.7% to 3.4%: services overtook goods for good in May 2026. Source: BoT MER Table A9(ii).
Food: easing prices, falling reserves
Food inflation rose slightly to 3.9% from 3.7%, driven by sorghum, potatoes, finger millet and wheat, but it remains far below the 7.0% of a year ago. Wholesale staples such as rice, beans and maize were at or below year-earlier levels in the review's charts. The National Food Reserve Agency held 478,160.2 tonnes at end-September after buying 705.7 tonnes and releasing 6,877.1 tonnes of maize and paddy; stocks are the lowest for September since 2023 and 16% below September 2025.
NFRA Food Stocks, 2025 vs 2026 (End of Month)
Tonnes. Stocks have drawn down from 567,469 in January 2026 to 478,160 in September. Source: BoT MER Table 2.1.2.
NFRA Stocks Each September, 2022–2026
Tonnes. The 2024 build-up to 651,403 tonnes has been worked down to 478,160. Source: BoT MER Table 2.1.2.
Energy and utilities
Energy, fuel and utilities inflation eased to 7.8% from 8.5% on lower petrol, diesel and kerosene price movements during the month, but it is more than double the 3.7% of September 2025. With crude at USD 102.3 in September (USD 84.4 in August), the easing is fragile. The BoT notes that core inflation, not energy, now accounts for most of the headline: 3.1 of 4.3 points, against 1.6 of 3.4 a year ago.
Headline inflation calculator
Weights from the CPI basket (food 28.2, transport 14.1, housing and utilities 15.1, all other 42.6). Defaults reproduce September 2026. "All other groups" default of 2.0% is the rate implied by the other ten groups. A weighted approximation, not an official CPI.
Implied headline, %
4.30
Room to 5% ceiling, pts
0.70
Transport contribution, pts
1.97
Food contribution, pts
1.10
Reading
The 4.3% headline hides a swap: cheaper food is financing dearer transport. If food inflation reverts toward 6.5% (El Niño, wheat and sugar prices), the headline would move to about 5.0% with transport unchanged. Use the calculator: food 6.5, transport 14.0 gives 5.0%, the ceiling of the target band.
03 — Money, Credit & Interest RatesPolicy Rate Up 50 Basis Points; Credit Still Growing at Three Times Nominal GDP
The Monetary Policy Committee's July 2026 decision raised the Central Bank Rate (CBR) to 6.25% for the quarter ending September 2026, from 5.75% in the quarter to June, to contain second-round inflation from elevated energy, fertilizer and transport costs. Operations kept the 7-day interbank rate inside a corridor of 4.75–7.75%. Liquidity was adequate; reverse-repo demand fell as banks held more liquidity (transactions TZS 2,624.5 billion vs TZS 3,037.4 billion in August).
Policy instrument
Jun-26
Jul-26
Aug-26
Sep-26
Central Bank Rate / Repo rate
5.75
6.25
6.25
6.25
Reverse repo rate
5.75
6.25
6.25
6.25
Lombard rate (top of corridor)
7.25
7.75
7.75
7.75
Discount rate
8.25
8.75
8.75
8.75
Overall interbank cash market rate
6.00
6.57
6.67
6.67
Overall Treasury bill rate
4.83
4.74
4.86
4.85
Overall lending rate
15.22
15.10
15.05
15.54
Overall time deposit rate
8.69
8.78
8.78
9.02
Table 3.1. Percent. Source: BoT MER Table A4 and Table 2.3.1.
Policy Rate, Lombard Rate and the Interbank Rate
Percent, Sep-25 to Sep-26. The interbank rate sits above the CBR; the overall T-bill rate sits far below it. Source: BoT MER Table A4.
Lending, Deposit and Spread: Jan–Sep 2026
Percent. Overall lending rose to 15.54% in September; deposits to 9.02%; the short-term spread narrowed to 5.78 points. Source: BoT MER Table 2.3.1.
Money supply: strong, credit-led
Item
Sep-25 (TZS B)
Aug-26 (TZS B)
Sep-26 (TZS B)
Growth y/y
Change y/y (TZS B)
Net foreign assets
15,896.7
13,575.4
13,152.3
−17.3%
−2,744.4
Bank of Tanzania
14,467.3
13,730.9
14,139.1
−2.3%
−328.2
Banks
1,429.3
−155.5
−986.7
turned negative
−2,416.0
Net domestic assets
41,957.4
58,553.3
59,675.6
+42.2%
+17,718.2
Domestic claims
54,854.2
68,093.2
69,436.3
+26.6%
+14,582.1
Securities held by banks
8,723.1
11,718.3
12,056.9
+38.2%
+3,333.8
Claims on the private sector
41,999.9
55,255.9
56,359.4
+34.2%
+14,359.5
Other items (net)
−12,896.9
−9,539.8
−9,760.7
−24.3%
+3,136.2
Narrow money (M1)
27,916.4
35,592.8
36,121.8
+29.4%
+8,205.4
Broad money (M2)
44,516.8
56,085.2
57,334.6
+28.8%
+12,817.8
Foreign currency deposits
13,337.2
16,043.5
15,493.3
+16.2%
+2,156.1
Currency in circulation
7,730.8
9,119.9
9,394.0
+21.5%
+1,663.2
Reserve money (M0)
13,717.6
17,245.9
17,127.7
+24.9%
+3,410.1
Extended broad money (M3)
57,854.0
72,128.7
72,827.9
+25.9%
+14,973.9
Table 3.2. Source: BoT MER Table 2.2.1 and Table A3; "change y/y" is TICGL/TERI arithmetic. Banks' net foreign assets turned negative (net foreign liabilities).
M3 and Credit to the Private Sector, Sep-25 to Sep-26
TZS billion (bars) and private credit as % of M3 (line, right axis). Credit's share of M3 rose from 72.6% to 77.4%. Source: BoT MER Table A3; TICGL/TERI calc.
What Moved M3 Over the Year: Counterparts
TZS billion, Sep-25 to Sep-26. Private credit +14,360; net foreign assets −2,744; total M3 +14,974. TICGL/TERI calc. from Table 2.2.1.
Credit by sector
Sector (annual growth, %)
Apr-26
May-26
Jun-26
Jul-26
Aug-26
Sep-26
Transport and communication
39.7
44.6
59.5
66.0
77.2
78.3
Trade
44.2
35.0
46.4
43.5
47.1
52.5
Agriculture
30.5
30.9
30.1
37.3
38.4
41.9
Mining and quarrying
39.7
19.8
39.9
65.2
75.9
35.2
Building and construction
20.6
25.4
34.4
38.9
41.8
34.3
Hotels and restaurants
6.0
−2.9
0.9
25.1
24.6
32.7
Personal
17.7
20.0
21.8
24.7
24.9
23.1
Manufacturing
4.2
3.3
8.3
5.1
12.9
17.7
Table 3.3. Source: BoT MER Table 2.2.2.
Credit Growth by Sector: April vs September 2026
Annual growth, %. Transport & communication and hotels accelerate; mining and construction slow in September after peaks in August. Source: BoT MER Table 2.2.2.
Share of Bank Credit by Activity, September 2026
% of outstanding private-sector credit. Personal loans 33.9%, trade 15.6%, agriculture 13.7%; all other activities 36.8% (residual). Source: BoT MER Chart 2.2.6.
Financial Depth: Private Credit to GDP and Credit Growth, 2018–2025
Percent. Credit to GDP rose from 13.8% to 19.1% in seven years; credit growth hit 23.6% in 2025. Source: BoT MER Table A1.
Reading
Credit growth of 34.2% compares with nominal GDP growth of 10.4% in 2025 and M3 growth of 25.9% against 4.3% inflation. Lending is deepening (credit to GDP 19.1% in 2025), which is positive, but it is concentrated in fast-growing transport and communication, trade and agriculture books, banks' net foreign position has turned negative, and the review publishes no non-performing-loan data. Credit quality, not credit volume, is the next number to watch.
04 — Financial MarketsLiquid Markets, Falling Short Yields and a Newly Open Door for Foreign Investors
Government securities markets stayed vibrant in September 2026. The Bank ran two Treasury bill auctions (tender TZS 678.3 billion) that drew bids of TZS 1,205 billion, of which TZS 654.6 billion were accepted, so the overall weighted yield stayed at 4.85%. Three Treasury bond auctions (5, 10 and 15-year; tender TZS 535.8 billion in total) attracted TZS 1,267.2 billion of bids and accepted TZS 489.7 billion.
T-bill bid cover
1.78x
bids TZS 1,205B ÷ tender 678.3B
T-bond bid cover
2.36x
bids TZS 1,267.2B ÷ tender 535.8B
10-year yield
10.69%
13.74% in Sep-25
Interbank turnover
TZS 4,791.7B
from 4,566.2B; 7-day = 62%
September 2026 Auctions: Tender, Bids and Accepted
TZS billion. Treasury bills and bonds were oversubscribed; 39% of bond bids and 54% of bill bids were accepted (TICGL calc.). Source: BoT MER section 2.4.
Treasury Bond Yield Curve: Sep-25 vs Sep-26
Weighted average yield, %. Yields fell by up to 3.8 points (2-year); the 10-year fell 3.05 points and the 7-year is unchanged. Source: BoT MER Table A4.
Treasury Bill Yields by Tenor: Sep-25 vs Sep-26
%. The bill curve has steepened: 35-day fell from 6.20% to 2.41% while 364-day rose from 5.99% to 6.38%. Source: BoT MER Table A4.
Bond Yields Over Time: 5, 10, 15 and 20-Year
%, Sep-25 to Sep-26. Long yields fell steadily until March–April 2026 and then edged back up. Source: BoT MER Table A4.
Yield (%)
Sep-25
Dec-25
Mar-26
Jun-26
Aug-26
Sep-26
Change y/y (pts)
35-day bill
6.20
5.38
4.20
2.82
2.11
2.41
−3.79
91-day bill
6.81
5.93
4.23
3.56
3.42
3.40
−3.41
182-day bill
6.56
5.91
5.69
4.98
5.12
5.11
−1.45
364-day bill
5.99
6.24
5.80
6.65
6.70
6.38
+0.39
Overall T-bill rate
6.03
5.87
5.21
4.83
4.86
4.85
−1.18
2-year bond
12.17
10.05
8.36
8.36
8.40
8.40
−3.77
5-year bond
12.48
10.54
10.54
9.54
9.54
9.53
−2.95
10-year bond
13.74
12.45
11.30
10.39
10.87
10.69
−3.05
15-year bond
13.91
12.08
10.78
10.39
10.55
10.79
−3.12
25-year bond
13.19
13.19
11.99
11.89
11.48
11.48
−1.71
Overall interbank rate
6.45
6.29
6.32
6.00
6.67
6.67
+0.22
Table 4.1. Percent. Source: BoT MER Table A4; "change y/y" is TICGL/TERI arithmetic.
Interbank Cash Market Rates by Tenor, September 2026
%. Short tenors cluster near the CBR of 6.25%; the 181-day-and-above bucket is stuck at 12.00%. Source: BoT MER Table A4.
Overnight and Overall Interbank Rate vs the CBR
%, Sep-25 to Sep-26. Overall interbank rate moved up with the July 2026 CBR increase. Source: BoT MER Table A4.
Foreign exchange
The interbank foreign exchange market was stable, helped by commodity-export and tourism inflows. Turnover reached USD 151.7 million and the Bank sold only USD 7.2 million to smooth volatility. The shilling averaged TZS 2,654.91 per USD (TZS 2,657.01 in August), an annual depreciation of 7.4% that the BoT attributes largely to a base effect from a sharp appreciation in September 2025.
Exchange Rate, 2018–2025 and September 2026
TZS per USD: annual average, end-period, and September 2026 average (2,654.91). Source: BoT MER Table A1 and section 2.4.
Foreign Exchange Market in September 2026
USD million. Turnover USD 151.7M against BoT net sales of just USD 7.2M, i.e. 4.7% of volume (TICGL calc.). Source: BoT MER section 2.4.
Policy spotlight: Tanzania opens Government securities to the world
On 17 July 2026, the Foreign Exchange (Amendment) Regulations, 2026 (Government Notice No. 206 of 2026) replaced Regulation 20 of the 2022 Regulations, removing geographical restrictions and the minimum holding period on Government securities. The reform follows competitive bond auctions (January 2025), an Electronic Matching System for the interbank FX market (May 2026) and the Tanzania Sovereign Yield Curve (August 2026).
The BoT expects more competition at auctions, lower borrowing costs, longer-dated issuance, deeper secondary liquidity, better price discovery, higher reserves and a shift of exchange-rate risk to investors. The risks it names are abrupt outflows, reserve losses and higher yields; benefits depend on low inflation, fiscal discipline, adequate reserves and transparent markets.
Stage of capital-account opening
Who gained access to Government securities
Conditions
2014
EAC residents
Ceiling of 40% of each issue; 12-month restriction on transfer to Tanzanian residents
2022 Regulations
SADC residents and the diaspora added
Holding period shortened to six months
17 July 2026 (GN 206)
Rest of the world
No geographical restriction; no minimum holding period
Table 4.2. Source: BoT MER, "Tanzania Opens Further to Global Capital".
Reading
Yields at 10–15 years are about 3 points lower than a year ago and the market is oversubscribed, so the opening comes at a favourable moment. The bill curve has flipped from inverted to upward sloping, and the 10-year yield is still 4.4 points above the CBR. The test of the reform is whether foreign money arrives into this curve without a sudden reversal when oil, or US yields, move.
05 — Fiscal OperationsA Strong Revenue Start to 2026/27, With Interest and Recurrent Costs Running Hot
Mainland government collections reached TZS 3,502.2 billion in July 2026, 9.5% above the TZS 3,198.4 billion estimate. Central government revenue was TZS 3,354.9 billion (95.8% of the total). Spending was TZS 3,572.5 billion: TZS 2,779.6 billion recurrent and TZS 792.9 billion development. The 2026/27 budget envisages TZS 46.2 trillion of revenue and TZS 54.5 trillion of spending, leaving a deficit of TZS 7.7 trillion after grants.
Total revenue, July
TZS 3,502.2B
+9.5% vs estimate
Tax revenue
TZS 2,877.0B
+11.8% vs TZS 2,574.5B estimate
Interest payments
TZS 564.9B
+33.7% vs estimate; 15.8% of spending
Development spending
TZS 792.9B
−7.4% vs estimate; 22.2% of spending
July 2026 (TZS billion)
Estimate
Actual
Gap
Gap %
Total revenue (incl. LGAs)
3,198.4
3,502.2
+303.8
+9.5%
Central government revenue
3,054.7
3,354.9
+300.2
+9.8%
Tax revenue
2,574.5
2,877.0
+302.5
+11.8%
Taxes on imports
1,020.5
1,163.4
+142.9
+14.0%
Taxes on local goods and services
453.7
638.2
+184.6
+40.7%
Income taxes
910.6
862.6
−48.0
−5.3%
Other taxes
189.8
212.8
+23.0
+12.1%
Non-tax revenue
480.2
477.9
−2.3
−0.5%
LGA own sources
143.7
147.3
+3.6
+2.5%
Total expenditure
3,376.9
3,572.5
+195.6
+5.8%
Recurrent expenditure
2,521.0
2,779.6
+258.6
+10.3%
Wages and salaries
1,254.9
1,164.4
−90.5
−7.2%
Interest payments
422.5
564.9
+142.4
+33.7%
Domestic interest
192.2
383.8
+191.6
+99.7%
Foreign interest
230.3
181.1
−49.2
−21.4%
Other goods, services and transfers
843.6
1,050.2
+206.7
+24.5%
Development and net lending
855.9
792.9
−63.0
−7.4%
Local
519.3
521.0
+1.7
+0.3%
Foreign
336.7
271.9
−64.7
−19.2%
Balance before grants
−178.6
−70.3
+108.3
—
Grants (project)
103.5
75.7
−27.8
−26.8%
Balance after grants (cheques issued)
−75.1
+5.4
+80.5
—
Overall balance (after cash adjustments of TZS 476.2B)
−75.1
+486.2
+561.3
—
Table 5.1. TZS billion, Tanzania Mainland, cheques issued basis. Source: BoT MER Table A2; gap columns are TICGL/TERI arithmetic. The review text cites 9.8% for "tax collections", which matches central-government revenue (see Data Notes).
July 2026 Revenue by Source: Estimate vs Actual
TZS billion. Local VAT and excise (+41%) and import taxes (+14%) carried the beat; income tax missed by 5%. Source: BoT MER Table A2.
July 2026 Spending: Estimate vs Actual
TZS billion. Wages were under estimate; interest and other recurrent spending overshot; development fell short. Source: BoT MER Table A2.
How July Was Financed
TZS billion. Foreign financing of +1,094.8 (including program loans of 1,164.1) funded a repayment of domestic debt (−1,581.0, of which banks −1,864.5). Source: BoT MER Table A2.
Composition of July Spending: Estimate vs Actual
% of total expenditure. Interest rises to 15.8% of spending against 12.5% planned; development is 22.2% against 25.3% planned. TICGL calc. from Table A2.
The 2026/27 budget in one table
Budget 2026/27 (TZS trillion)
Amount
Share
Taxes on imports
13.47
29.1%
Income taxes
14.48
31.3%
Taxes on local goods and services
6.83
14.8%
Other taxes
2.47
5.3%
Non-tax revenue
7.02
15.2%
LGA own sources
1.97
4.3%
Total revenue
46.23
100%
Budget 2026/27 (TZS trillion)
Amount
Share
Wages and salaries
14.09
25.9%
Interest payments
6.86
12.6%
Other goods, services, transfers
14.25
26.1%
Development and net lending
19.30
35.4%
Total expenditure
54.50
100%
Table 5.2. Source: BoT MER Table A2; shares are TICGL/TERI arithmetic. Financing: foreign net TZS 4.43 trillion, domestic net TZS 3.27 trillion (deficit after grants TZS 7.71 trillion). Grants TZS 0.56 trillion.
2026/27 Budget Revenue by Source
TZS trillion. Income tax and import taxes provide 60% of the TZS 46.2 trillion. Source: BoT MER Table A2.
2026/27 Budget Spending and Financing
TZS trillion. Development of 19.3 is financed 72% locally; interest of 6.9 is 12.6% of spending. Source: BoT MER Table A2.
Medium-term fiscal trend
Revenue, Current and Development Spending, % of GDP
Fiscal years 2018/19 to 2025/26 (provisional). Revenue has risen from 13.8% to 17.2% of GDP while current spending rose from 10.3% to 12.9%. Source: BoT MER Table A1.
Budget Deficit, % of GDP
Overall balance (after grants) and balance excluding grants. The overall deficit narrowed to 2.7% of GDP in 2025/26. Source: BoT MER Table A1.
Reading
Revenue is the good news: tax performance is up on the estimate and the revenue-to-GDP ratio has risen 3.4 points in seven years. The costs to watch are interest (domestic interest was almost double its estimate in July) and recurrent spending outside wages. July's overall surplus is not a trend: it reflects TZS 1.09 trillion of foreign financing, mostly program loans, and a TZS 476.2 billion cash adjustment.
The national debt stock was USD 52,344.2 million at end-September 2026 (USD 52,341.1 million in August). External debt was USD 36,784.2 million (70.3%), of which 83.4% is public. Domestic debt was TZS 41.1 trillion. In September, external disbursements were USD 234.3 million and debt service USD 171.9 million (principal USD 122.0 million, interest USD 49.9 million).
National debt
USD 52.3B
external 70.3%
External debt
USD 36.8B
+6.6% y/y; public 83.4%
Domestic debt
TZS 41.1T
+9.8% y/y
External arrears
USD 1.20B
+105% in 12 months
External debt
Creditor (USD million)
Sep-25
Share
Aug-26
Sep-26
Share
Change y/y
Multilateral
20,230.1
58.6%
21,899.2
21,892.2
59.5%
+8.2%
Commercial
12,042.8
34.9%
12,721.4
12,677.7
34.5%
+5.3%
Bilateral
1,559.3
4.5%
1,561.1
1,547.4
4.2%
−0.8%
Export credit
677.8
2.0%
666.4
666.9
1.8%
−1.6%
External debt stock
34,510.1
100%
36,848.2
36,784.2
100%
+6.6%
Table 6.1. Includes interest arrears. Source: BoT MER Table 2.6.2; "change y/y" is TICGL/TERI arithmetic.
External Debt by Creditor: Sep-25 vs Sep-26
USD million, including interest arrears. Multilateral lenders hold 59.5%; commercial 34.5%. Source: BoT MER Table 2.6.2.
Disbursed External Debt: Monthly Stock
USD million, Sep-25 to Sep-26, by borrower. Central government 84%; private sector 16%. Source: BoT MER Table A10.
Currency Composition of External Debt
USD million. The US dollar is 65.3% (23,788.8), the euro 18.1% (6,580.8), the yuan 6.7% (2,450.2), other 10.0% (3,634.5). Source: BoT MER Table A10.
Where External Debt Went: Use of Funds, Sep-26
USD million. Balance-of-payments and budget support 23.2%, transport and telecommunication 21.0%, social welfare and education 19.3%. Source: BoT MER Table A10.
External Debt: Disbursements vs Debt Service
USD million per month. Principal repayments (bars) and interest compared with disbursements (line). Net transfers were negative in October 2025, February and April 2026. Source: BoT MER Table A10.
Net Flows and Net Transfers on External Debt
USD million per month. Net flows (disbursements less principal) stayed positive except April 2026. Source: BoT MER Table A10.
External arrears: the quiet risk
Arrears (USD million)
Sep-25
Dec-25
Mar-26
Jun-26
Aug-26
Sep-26
Change y/y
Principal arrears
401.8
458.9
492.0
622.6
754.3
867.5
+115.9%
Commercial
184.5
211.8
240.4
317.9
441.1
549.6
+197.9%
Bilateral
175.0
184.0
188.0
197.3
198.8
198.8
+13.6%
Export credit
41.7
62.3
62.9
94.2
100.8
104.9
+151.6%
Multilateral
0.7
0.8
0.7
13.2
13.6
14.2
—
Interest arrears
182.3
209.9
224.1
274.6
311.4
329.9
+81.0%
Total arrears
584.1
668.8
716.1
897.2
1,065.6
1,197.4
+105.0%
Table 6.2. Source: BoT MER Table A10 item 10; "change y/y" is TICGL/TERI arithmetic. Interest arrears here equal the sum of creditor interest arrears (USD 329.9M) and tie to Table 2.6.2 (80.6 + 24.7 + 182.6 + 42.0).
External Debt Arrears: Principal and Interest
USD million, Sep-25 to Sep-26. Total arrears have risen every month; the pace quickened from May 2026. Source: BoT MER Table A10.
Principal Arrears by Creditor
USD million. Commercial arrears tripled from USD 184.5M to USD 549.6M; export-credit arrears more than doubled. Source: BoT MER Table A10.
Why arrears matter
Arrears are 3.3% of the external debt stock, a small share, but they have grown 8–14% a month since May against a debt stock growing 6.6% a year, and the largest increase is on commercial debt. They sit alongside a debt-service bill that, per the budget, includes TZS 6.9 trillion of interest. A rising arrears number signals payment-processing or liquidity frictions that can raise the cost of future borrowing before it raises default risk.
Domestic debt
TZS trillion
Sep-25
Share
Aug-26
Sep-26
Share
Change y/y
Treasury bonds
30.30
80.9%
34.79
34.80
84.6%
+14.8%
Treasury bills
2.06
5.5%
1.79
1.90
4.6%
−7.9%
Government stocks
0.14
0.4%
0.14
0.14
0.3%
−0.1%
Overdraft (BoT)
4.94
13.2%
4.18
4.29
10.4%
−13.3%
Domestic debt (excl. liquidity papers)
37.46
100%
40.90
41.11
100%
+9.8%
Table 6.3. Securities TZS 36.83 trillion (89.6%). Source: BoT MER Table 2.6.5; TICGL/TERI arithmetic. Components may not sum exactly to totals (rounding, other liabilities of TZS 0.02 trillion in Sep-25).
Domestic Debt by Holder: Sep-25 vs Sep-26
TZS trillion. Banks (28.5%) and pension funds (27.4%) hold more than half. Source: BoT MER Table 2.6.6.
Domestic Debt by Instrument: Sep-25 vs Sep-26
TZS trillion. Bonds are now 84.6% of the stock; the overdraft has shrunk to 10.4%. Source: BoT MER Table 2.6.5.
In September the Government raised TZS 356 billion from the domestic market (TZS 178 billion in Treasury bonds and TZS 178 billion in 364-day bills) and paid domestic debt service of TZS 556.4 billion: TZS 250.8 billion principal and TZS 305.6 billion interest.
Going deeper
A separate TICGL/TERI analysis, Tanzania National Debt Overview, expresses the whole stock in TZS trillion, combines domestic and external debt, and tests sustainability scenarios.
07 — External SectorExports +19.9%, Imports +24.0%: Oil Widens the Deficit, Gold and Tourism Cushion It
The current account deficit widened to USD 2,397.5 million in the year to September 2026 from USD 1,879.3 million (+27.6%) as imports outpaced exports. The September month itself showed a surplus of USD 421.2 million (a deficit of USD 252.5 million a year earlier), as goods exports reached USD 1,504.1 million and services receipts USD 1,017.5 million. Reserves were USD 6,031.9 million, 4.3 months of projected imports.
Current account (USD million)
12m to Sep-24
12m to Sep-25
12m to Sep-26p
Change y/y
Sep-25 month
Sep-26 month
Goods account
−5,928.7
−4,596.3
−6,241.2
+35.8%
−573.8
−318.5
Exports of goods
8,226.5
10,060.1
12,444.9
+23.7%
1,013.1
1,504.1
Imports of goods
14,155.2
14,656.4
18,686.1
+27.5%
1,586.9
1,822.6
Services account
4,062.9
4,315.9
5,172.2
+19.8%
433.0
729.3
Receipts
6,667.1
7,508.3
8,620.2
+14.8%
703.5
1,017.5
Payments
2,604.2
3,192.4
3,448.1
+8.0%
270.6
288.2
Goods and services balance
−1,865.8
−280.4
−1,069.0
3.8x
−140.8
+410.8
Exports of goods and services
14,893.6
17,568.5
21,065.1
+19.9%
1,716.6
2,521.6
Imports of goods and services
16,759.4
17,848.9
22,134.2
+24.0%
1,857.4
2,110.8
Primary income
−1,735.4
−2,073.6
−2,089.8
+0.8%
−137.6
−123.0
Secondary income
585.2
474.6
761.4
+60.4%
26.0
133.4
Current account balance
−3,016.0
−1,879.3
−2,397.5
+27.6%
−252.5
+421.2
Table 7.1. Source: BoT MER Table 2.7.1. The review writes the Sep-25 monthly goods and services exports as USD 1,716.6M; the 12-month totals use the table values. Exports include adjustments for informal cross-border trade.
Exports and Imports of Goods and Services, 12 Months to September
USD million and the current account balance (line). Exports grew USD 3.5B but imports grew USD 4.3B. Source: BoT MER Table 2.7.1.
What Widened the Deficit? Changes From the Year to Sep-25
USD million, year to Sep-26 vs year to Sep-25. Petroleum imports (+1,600.5) outweigh gold (+1,403.3) and tourism and transport receipts. Source: BoT MER; TICGL/TERI arithmetic.
Exports: gold and manufactures lead
Gold and Manufactured Goods Exports
USD million, 12 months to September. Gold rose 31.7% to USD 5,834.5M (47% of goods exports); manufactures 42.4% to USD 2,202.4M. Source: BoT MER Chart 2.7.2.
Services Receipts by Category
USD million, 12 months to September. Travel USD 4,565.8M (+4.1%); transport USD 3,478.7M (+30.3%) on transit trade; other USD 575.7M. Source: BoT MER Chart 2.7.3.
Traditional exports were led by tobacco, while coffee and cashew nuts fell despite remaining key cash crops. Monthly goods exports reached USD 1,504.1 million in September 2026 (USD 1,013.1 million in September 2025), mainly on gold.
Imports: industrial supplies and petroleum
Select imports (USD million, 12m to Sep)
2025
2026p
Change
Change %
Industrial supplies
5,279.5
5,843.9
+564.4
+10.7%
White petroleum products
2,213.1
3,813.6
+1,600.5
+72.3%
Freight
1,318.6
1,706.6
+388.0
+29.4%
Industrial transport equipment
1,240.8
1,615.8
+375.0
+30.2%
Machinery and mechanical appliances
1,123.6
1,572.1
+448.5
+39.9%
Parts and accessories
1,175.6
1,393.8
+218.2
+18.6%
Electrical machinery and equipment
483.1
712.3
+229.2
+47.4%
Table 7.2. Source: BoT MER Chart 2.7.4; "change" columns are TICGL/TERI arithmetic. Petroleum is about 20% of goods imports.
Select Imports: 12 Months to Sep-25 vs Sep-26
USD million. Machinery, transport equipment and electrical equipment reflect public and private investment. Source: BoT MER Chart 2.7.4.
Service Receipts vs Payments
USD million, 12 months to September. Receipts 6,667.1 → 7,508.3 → 8,620.2; payments 2,604.2 → 3,192.4 → 3,448.1 (+8.0% in 2026, driven by freight). Source: BoT MER Table 2.7.1.
Eight years of balance-of-payments history
Goods Exports, Goods Imports and the Current Account, 2018–2025
USD million. Goods exports have grown 2.4 times since 2018; the current account deficit peaked at USD 5.5B in 2022 and narrowed to USD 2.0B in 2025. Source: BoT MER Table A1.
Gross Reserves and Import Cover, 2018–2025
USD million (bars) and months of imports (line, right axis). End-September 2026: USD 6,031.9M and 4.3 months, against USD 6,329.0M and 4.9 months at end-2025. Source: BoT MER Table A1 and section 2.7.
Oil-shock calculator: what a different fuel bill does to the current account
Baseline: current account deficit USD 2,397.5M; white petroleum imports USD 3,813.6M; gold exports USD 5,834.5M; exports of goods and services USD 21,065.1M (12 months to Sep-26). Enter a price change and volume change for petroleum, and a change in gold export earnings. A first-round arithmetic illustration, not a forecast.
New petroleum bill, USD M
3,813.6
New deficit, USD M
2,397.5
Deficit, % of exports of G&S
11.4%
Change vs baseline, USD M
0.0
Reading
Every 10% rise in the petroleum import price adds about USD 381 million to the deficit, 16% of the baseline. A 10% change in gold earnings moves it USD 583 million the other way, so gold remains the swing factor. The BoT's 4.3 months of import cover is calculated on projected imports; on the 12-month import bill of USD 22.1 billion, USD 6.0 billion of reserves covers about 3.3 months (TICGL arithmetic), which is why the pace of the import bill matters.
08 — ZanzibarInflation Back to 4.3%, a Growing Current Account Surplus and a Clove-Driven Export Jump
Zanzibar's headline inflation moderated to 4.3% in September 2026 from 5.6% in August, on lower food prices (food is 41.9% of the Zanzibar basket), but it is above the 3.5% of September 2025. Food inflation was 6.9% (9.8% in August); non-food was 2.3%. The current account surplus widened 18.7% to USD 986.8 million.
Headline inflation
4.3%
5.6% in Aug-26; 3.5% in Sep-25
Food inflation
6.9%
9.8% in Aug-26; 4.1% in Sep-25
Current account surplus
USD 986.8M
+18.7%
Clove exports
USD 38.0M
from USD 6.2M; 6.5k tonnes
Zanzibar inflation (annual, %)
Weight
Sep-25
Aug-26
Sep-26
m/m Sep-26
Food and non-alcoholic beverages
41.9
4.7
9.6
6.8
−1.9
Alcoholic beverages and tobacco
0.2
2.7
4.2
4.2
0.0
Clothing and footwear
6.3
5.6
1.5
1.5
0.0
Housing, water, electricity, gas and fuels
25.8
1.1
1.0
1.3
−0.3
Furnishings and household maintenance
4.8
3.7
4.3
4.8
0.5
Health
1.3
1.6
0.9
0.9
0.0
Transport
9.1
2.2
5.2
4.7
0.0
Information and communication
4.2
2.7
0.3
0.3
0.0
Recreation, sport and culture
1.1
6.2
3.0
1.2
0.0
Education
1.6
3.8
1.1
1.1
0.0
Restaurants and accommodation
1.4
1.6
6.2
6.2
0.0
Insurance and financial services
0.5
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Personal care and miscellaneous
1.7
5.8
1.1
0.8
0.1
All items (headline)
100.0
3.5
5.6
4.3
−1.0
Food (selected group)
40.5
4.1
9.8
6.9
−2.0
Non-food
59.5
2.9
2.2
2.3
−0.1
Table 8.1. Base July 2022 = 100. Source: BoT MER Table 3.1.1 (Office of the Chief Government Statistician). The review text describes monthly headline inflation as "1 percent"; the table shows −1.0%, which is used here.
Zanzibar Inflation by Group: Sep-25, Aug-26, Sep-26
Annual %. Food is the driver of the August peak and the September decline; restaurants and transport stay elevated. Source: BoT MER Table 3.1.1.
Headline, Food and Non-Food: Sep-25 to Sep-26
Annual %. Headline 3.5% to 5.6% to 4.3%; food 4.1% to 9.8% to 6.9%; non-food steady at 2.2–2.9%. Source: BoT MER Table 3.1.1.
Zanzibar budget in September 2026
September 2026
TZS billion
Note
Resource envelope
210.4
92.8% of the monthly target
Domestic revenue
200.9
95.5% of the envelope; 92.9% of target
Tax revenue
173.7
86.4% of domestic revenue; 91.6% of target; VAT, local excise and income tax were strong
Non-tax revenue
27.3
2.4% above target
Grants
9.5
Balance of the envelope (TICGL arithmetic)
Total expenditure
494.5
Consistent with available resources
Development spending
355.9
72% of spending; 77.8% domestically financed
Table 8.2. Source: BoT MER section 3.2.
Zanzibar's external sector
USD million
12m to Sep-25
12m to Sep-26p
Change
Sep-26 month
Goods account (net)
−532.2
−768.5
+44.4%
−49.5
Exports of goods
35.2
65.0
+84.9%
1.9
Imports of goods (f.o.b)
567.4
833.5
+46.9%
51.4
Services account (net)
1,470.1
1,733.6
+17.9%
169.7
Receipts
1,573.8
1,799.4
+14.3%
174.7
Payments
103.7
65.9
−36.5%
5.0
Exports of goods and services
1,609.0
1,864.4
+15.9%
176.6
Imports of goods and services
671.1
899.4
+34.0%
56.4
Primary income (net)
9.4
17.1
+82.8%
3.0
Secondary income (net)
1.1
4.6
>100%
1.1
Current account balance
831.4
986.8
+18.7%
69.4
Table 8.3. Source: BoT MER Table 3.3.1.
Zanzibar Current Account Components
USD million, 12 months to September. A services surplus of USD 1.7B offsets a goods deficit of USD 0.8B. Source: BoT MER Table 3.3.1.
Zanzibar Goods Exports, 12 Months to Sep-26
USD million, total 65.0. Cloves are 58.4% (up from USD 6.2M), "other" 20.1%, manufactured goods 17.7% (−36.1%). Source: BoT MER Table 3.3.2.
Zanzibar Goods Imports by Type
USD million, 12 months to September. Capital goods rose from USD 81.2M to 228.3M (machinery 84.2, transport equipment 78.6, electrical 48.2). Source: BoT MER Table 3.3.3.
Clove Exports: Value, Volume and Price
12 months to September. Value USD 6.2M to 38.0M; volume 1.1 to 6.5 thousand tonnes; unit price steady near USD 4,000–4,050 a tonne. Source: BoT MER Table 3.3.2.
Reading
Zanzibar's surplus rests on services (tourism-led receipts of USD 1.8 billion) and, this year, a cyclical clove harvest. Capital-goods imports have almost tripled, which is a positive investment signal but adds to the import bill. The inflation story mirrors the mainland's: food relief is real, but transport at 4.7% and restaurants at 6.2% are above the 4.3% headline.
09 — Outlook & PolicyWhat to Watch Between Now and the Next Monetary Policy Committee Meeting
The BoT expects inflation to remain elevated in the coming months, with Middle East tensions and El Niño-related Vuli rains as pressures, but to stay within the national target and regional benchmarks, helped by food-crop surpluses from the 2025/26 harvest. The review states that the global energy shock is the main external risk and that tighter policy is possible if price pressures persist. The Central Bank Rate was raised to 6.25% for the quarter ending September 2026. This tab sets out TICGL/TERI's reading of what to track.
Headline inflation under alternative food and transport paths
Implied Headline Inflation: Food and Transport Scenarios
%. CPI-weighted approximation (food 28.2%, transport 14.1%, housing and utilities held at 2.5%, all other groups at 2.0%). Transport inflation 14.0% today; the dotted line is the 5% ceiling of the target band. TICGL/TERI illustration, not a BoT projection.
Watch-list: indicators, thresholds and why they matter
Indicator
Latest
Level that would change the reading
Why
Headline inflation
4.3%
Above 5% (target ceiling)
Triggers a second tightening debate; food 6.5% with transport at 14% gets there
Core inflation
4.1%
Rising for a fourth month
Core is 3.1 of the 4.3 points; services inflation is 6.1%
Crude oil (average)
USD 102.3
Sustained above USD 100
Each 10% on the petroleum bill is about USD 0.38B on the current account
Private credit growth
34.2%
Above 30% with falling reserves
Credit is 96% of M3 growth; banks' net foreign assets are negative
Reserves / import cover
USD 6.0B / 4.3 months
Below 4 months
Down from 4.9 months at end-2025 as the import bill rises
External arrears
USD 1.20B
Beyond USD 1.5B
Increasing about USD 100M a month; commercial arrears lead
Interest share of spending
15.8% (July)
Above the 12.6% budgeted
Domestic interest was double the July estimate
Gold prices
USD 4,319/oz
Below USD 4,000
Gold is USD 5.8B, 47% of goods exports
Foreign portfolio inflows
Not yet reported
First reports after GN 206
Open access could lower yields or raise outflow risk
Table 9.1. Thresholds are TICGL/TERI judgements, not official targets. Latest values: BoT MER October 2026.
Policy implications
Monetary and financial policy
Keep the CBR under review while core inflation is at 4.1% and credit grows at 34%.
Publish non-performing-loan and sector-concentration data alongside the credit tables.
Prepare liquidity tools for the first foreign-investor flows into Government securities.
Fiscal and debt management
Clear commercial and export-credit arrears early; they have tripled and doubled respectively.
Watch domestic interest: TZS 383.8 billion in July against TZS 192.2 billion planned.
Keep program-loan inflows from masking recurrent overshoots.
External and energy
Diversify fuel procurement and storage to dampen the transport-inflation channel.
Protect gold-purchase accumulation as a reserves buffer.
Support manufactured and service exports, which are growing faster than traditional crops.
Investors and businesses
Price in higher transport costs and a 15.5% lending rate; a falling bill yield does not reach borrowers.
Foreign investors can now buy Government securities with no holding period; model FX and exit risk.
Importers should hedge fuel-linked costs; exporters benefit from stable FX.
Talk to TICGL/TERI
Need a macroeconomic briefing, sector exposure analysis, a market-entry or feasibility study, or an investor briefing on Tanzania's rates, FX and debt conditions? Our economists can tailor this analysis to your sector.
10 — Sources & Data NotesMethod, Definitions and Reconciliation Notes
Basis
Source report. Bank of Tanzania, Monthly Economic Review, October 2026 (data to September 2026), covering global developments, Tanzania Mainland inflation, monetary policy, financial markets, budget operations, debt and the external sector, Zanzibar, and the Statistical Tables (A1–A10). Calculations. Contributions, shares, gaps, ratios, changes over 12 months, scenario and calculator results are TICGL/TERI arithmetic on published figures. The page is a detailed companion to the review and does not replace it.
Definitions and reconciliation notes
Item
Treatment on this page
CPI basket and base year
Mainland inflation uses the NBS CPI with base 2020 = 100 (weights: food 28.2%, transport 14.1%). Zanzibar uses base July 2022 = 100 (food 41.9%). The two are not comparable by weight.
Inflation contributions
The BoT decomposition (unprocessed food, energy, core) is quoted for Sep-25 and Sep-26. Group contributions (weight × annual rate) are TICGL/TERI approximations and differ slightly from the official published decomposition.
Tax revenue gap
The review text says taxes beat target by 9.8%; Table A2 gives tax revenue of TZS 2,877.0B against TZS 2,574.5B (+11.8%). The 9.8% matches central-government revenue (TZS 3,354.9B vs 3,054.7B). Table A2 figures are used.
Exports of goods and services, Sep-25
The text gives USD 17,568.9M while Table 2.7.1 shows USD 17,568.5M; the table value is used. Growth is 19.9% either way.
Domestic debt growth
TZS 41.11 trillion vs TZS 37.46 trillion (excluding liquidity papers) is +9.8%.
National and external debt
External debt of USD 36,784.2M includes arrears of USD 329.9M interest; disbursed outstanding debt (USD 36,454.3M in Table A10) plus interest arrears equals the stock in Table 2.6.2. Principal arrears (USD 867.5M) are shown separately as arrears and are already part of disbursed debt.
Import cover
The BoT's 4.3 months uses projected imports of goods and services. The 3.3-month figure on this page uses trailing 12-month imports as a TICGL/TERI cross-check.
Interest rates
Overall deposit rate is 9.02% in the text and 9.03% in Table A4 (rounding).
Zanzibar m/m inflation
The text says monthly headline inflation was "1 percent"; Table 3.1.1 shows −1.0%. The table value is used. Zanzibar food weight is 41.9% in the main groups and 40.5% in the "food" selected group.
Exchange rate
A 7.4% annual depreciation of the shilling (average TZS 2,654.91 per USD) is largely a base effect from September 2025, as stated by the BoT.
Provisional data
2025 annual figures, 2026 fiscal and external data and September 2026 debt are provisional (p) and may be revised. Figures marked "r" are revised.
Not published in the review
Non-performing loans, GDP growth for 2026, and the 2026 Q3 national accounts are not in this issue, so are not estimated here.
Rounding
Totals may differ from component sums by rounding.
Bank of Tanzania (October 2026), Monthly Economic Review, including Tables A1–A10.
National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), Consumer Price Index releases, base 2020 = 100; Office of the Chief Government Statistician, Zanzibar.
Ministry of Finance (Tanzania) and Ministry of Finance and Planning (Zanzibar), government operations and debt data.
World Bank, Commodity Price Data (Pink Sheet); IMF World Economic Outlook, October 2026; OECD Economic Outlook, September 2026.
TICGL/TERI calculations on the above.
11 — Quick AnswersFrequently Asked Questions
What was Tanzania's inflation rate in September 2026?
4.3%, unchanged from August and inside the 3–5% target, up from 3.4% a year earlier (Bank of Tanzania). Core inflation was 4.1%, food 3.9%, transport 14.0% and energy, fuel and utilities 7.8%.
Why did inflation stay within target even though fuel prices rose?
Food inflation fell from 7.0% to 3.9% over the year, offsetting transport inflation of 14.0%. On CPI weights, food contributes about 1.1 points to the 4.3% headline (about 2.0 points a year ago) and transport about 2.0 (about 0.3). Food-crop surpluses and moderating energy inflation (7.8% from 8.5%) helped, but core inflation of 4.1% is now the main driver.
What is Tanzania's Central Bank Rate in 2026?
6.25% for the quarter ending September 2026, raised from 5.75% by the Monetary Policy Committee in July 2026 to contain second-round inflation from higher energy, fertilizer and transport costs. The interbank rate is managed inside a 4.75–7.75% corridor.
How fast is private sector credit growing in Tanzania?
34.2% a year to September 2026, to TZS 56.4 trillion. It added TZS 14.4 trillion to money supply (M3, +25.9%) over 12 months. Transport and communication credit grew 78.3%, trade 52.5% and agriculture 41.9%; personal loans remain the largest share at 33.9%.
What happened to Tanzania's current account deficit?
It widened 27.6% to USD 2,397.5 million in the 12 months to September 2026. Imports of goods and services grew 24.0% (petroleum imports +72.3% to USD 3.8 billion) against exports growth of 19.9%, led by gold (USD 5.8 billion). In September alone the account recorded a USD 421.2 million surplus. Reserves were USD 6.0 billion, or 4.3 months of projected imports.
How large is Tanzania's national debt?
USD 52,344.2 million at end-September 2026: external debt of USD 36,784.2 million (70.3%) and domestic debt of TZS 41.1 trillion. External debt arrears doubled in a year to USD 1,197.4 million, led by commercial creditors.
What did the July 2026 Foreign Exchange Amendment Regulations change?
Government Notice No. 206 of 17 July 2026 removed geographical restrictions and the minimum holding period on Government securities, opening Tanzania's Treasury bill and bond market to investors worldwide. The Bank of Tanzania expects deeper liquidity, lower borrowing costs and better price discovery, with risks from abrupt outflows.
What is the Tanzanian shilling exchange rate against the US dollar?
The shilling averaged TZS 2,654.91 per USD in September 2026 (TZS 2,657.01 in August), a marginal appreciation on the month and a 7.4% depreciation on the year, largely a base effect from a sharp appreciation in September 2025.
What is the inflation rate in Zanzibar?
4.3% in September 2026, down from 5.6% in August, on lower food prices (food inflation 6.9% from 9.8%). It was 3.5% in September 2025.
12 — Explore MoreTICGL Economic: Related Insights & Tools
Related Analysis
Is Tanzania's Economy Growing?
The growth backdrop behind inflation, credit and the external balance.
Taarifa ya Uchumi wa Tanzania, Oktoba 2026: Kwa mujibu wa Mapitio ya Kila Mwezi ya Uchumi ya Benki Kuu ya Tanzania (Oktoba 2026, takwimu hadi Septemba 2026), bei zimetulia lakini muundo wake umebadilika; mikopo inaongezeka kwa kasi; na hali ya nje imeshinikizwa na mafuta.
Mfumuko wa bei: asilimia 4.3 Septemba 2026, ndani ya lengo la asilimia 3–5 (Septemba 2025 ulikuwa asilimia 3.4). Mfumuko wa bei wa chakula ulishuka kutoka asilimia 7.0 hadi 3.9, lakini wa usafirishaji ulipanda kutoka asilimia 2.1 hadi 14.0, na wa huduma kutoka 1.3 hadi 6.1. Mfumuko wa msingi (core) ni asilimia 4.1, kutoka 2.2, na unachangia pointi 3.1 kati ya 4.3.
Sera ya fedha na mikopo: Kiwango cha Riba cha Benki Kuu (CBR) kiliongezwa hadi asilimia 6.25 kutoka 5.75. Hata hivyo, mikopo kwa sekta binafsi ilikua asilimia 34.2 hadi TZS trilioni 56.4, na ujazo wa fedha (M3) ulikua asilimia 25.9. Mikopo ya usafirishaji na mawasiliano ilikua asilimia 78.3. Mali halisi za kigeni zilishuka asilimia 17.3, na za benki za biashara zimekuwa hasi.
Masoko ya fedha: minada ya hati fungani na bili ilijaa zabuni nyingi (hati fungani za miaka 10 asilimia 10.69, kutoka 13.74). Kuanzia tarehe 17 Julai 2026 (GN Na. 206), hati za Serikali zimefunguliwa kwa wawekezaji wa dunia nzima bila kikomo cha muda wa kushikilia. Shilingi ilikuwa wastani wa TZS 2,654.91 kwa dola.
Bajeti na deni: makusanyo ya Julai 2026 yalikuwa TZS bilioni 3,502.2, asilimia 9.5 juu ya lengo, lakini malipo ya riba yalikuwa asilimia 33.7 juu ya makadirio. Deni la taifa ni USD milioni 52,344.2 (nje asilimia 70.3; ndani TZS trilioni 41.1). Malimbikizo ya madeni ya nje yamezidi mara mbili hadi USD bilioni 1.20, hasa madeni ya kibiashara.
Sekta ya nje: nakisi ya akaunti ya sasa iliongezeka asilimia 27.6 hadi USD milioni 2,397.5 kwa miezi 12. Uagizaji wa bidhaa za mafuta ulipanda asilimia 72.3 hadi USD bilioni 3.8, ukizidi ongezeko la dhahabu (USD bilioni 5.8, +asilimia 31.7). Mauzo ya bidhaa na huduma yaliongezeka asilimia 19.9 hadi USD bilioni 21.1. Akiba ya fedha za kigeni ni USD bilioni 6.0, sawa na miezi 4.3 ya uagizaji.
Zanzibar: mfumuko wa bei ulishuka hadi asilimia 4.3 (kutoka 5.6 Agosti); ziada ya akaunti ya sasa ilikua asilimia 18.7 hadi USD milioni 986.8; mauzo ya karafuu yaliruka hadi USD milioni 38 kutoka 6.2.
Hitimisho na hatua: tofauti na kichwa cha habari, shinikizo zinajengeka chini: mfumuko wa msingi, ukuaji wa mikopo, bili ya mafuta, na malimbikizo ya madeni. Vitu vya kufuatilia: mfumuko juu ya asilimia 5, bei ya mafuta juu ya USD 100, akiba chini ya miezi 4, na ubora wa mikopo.
Mikopo binafsi: +34.2% · M3: +25.9% · Akaunti ya sasa: −USD milioni 2,397.5
Deni la taifa: USD milioni 52,344.2 · Malimbikizo ya nje: USD milioni 1,197.4 (+105%)
Chanzo: Benki Kuu ya Tanzania, Monthly Economic Review, Oktoba 2026; NBS; Wizara ya Fedha; mahesabu ya TICGL/TERI. Kwa maelezo zaidi: economist@ticgl.com.
Tanzania National Debt Overview 2026: TZS 138 Trillion, Arrears Doubled | TICGL
TICGL/TERI - National Debt Overview, 30 October 2026
TICGL/TERI Economic ResearchTanzania Economic UpdateNational DebtAll figures in TZS trillion
Tanzania National Debt Overview, October 2026: TZS 138 Trillion, a Stable Stock and Doubling Arrears
Tanzania's national debt stood at USD 52.3 billion, about TZS 138.3 trillion, at end-September 2026: TZS 97.2 trillion external (70.3%) and TZS 41.1 trillion domestic (29.7%). The stock barely moved in the month, but external arrears have doubled in a year to about TZS 3.2 trillion, domestic debt is now 84.6% Treasury bonds, and the 2026/27 budget puts TZS 6.86 trillion into interest alone. This page rebuilds the Bank of Tanzania Monthly Economic Review, October 2026 debt data in shilling trillions: who holds the debt, what it costs, where it went and what to watch.
📅 Period: End-September 2026📍 Tanzania (Mainland government and private external borrowers)🏛️ TICGL / TERI Economic Research Division📖 Source: Bank of Tanzania Monthly Economic Review, October 2026 (with Ministry of Finance)
National debt, Sep-26
TZS 138.3T USD 52.3B
External debt
TZS 97.2T 70.3% of total
Domestic debt
TZS 41.1T +9.8% y/y
External arrears
TZS 3.2T +105% y/y
Source: Bank of Tanzania Monthly Economic Review, October 2026 (Tables 2.6.1-2.6.6, A2, A10). External figures are converted from US dollars at TZS 2,642.26 per USD, the rate implied by the Bank's own national-debt total (domestic TZS 41,113.5B ÷ USD 15,560.0M); conversions, shares and ratios are TICGL/TERI arithmetic. See Sources & Data Notes.
Scope and units
Prepared by TERI for research and strategic-information purposes; it is not investment, legal, tax or financial advice. Every amount on this page is in TZS trillion unless it is marked USD or TZS billion. The Bank of Tanzania publishes external debt in US dollars and domestic debt in shillings; external amounts are converted at one constant rate so that month-to-month and year-to-year changes show borrowing, repayment and valuation as the Bank reports them in dollars, not exchange-rate noise. A companion page, Tanzania Economic Update, October 2026, covers the rest of the review.
00 — Overview & VerdictExecutive Summary: A Large but Stable Stock, With Pressure in the Plumbing
The answer
Tanzania owes about TZS 138.3 trillion (USD 52.3 billion), and the total did not move in September. National debt was USD 52,344.2 million, against USD 52,341.1 million in August. External debt is TZS 97.19 trillion (70.3%) and domestic debt TZS 41.11 trillion (29.7%). At a constant exchange rate the total is 128.6 trillion a year earlier, so the stock is up about 7.5% in twelve months.
The creditor mix is lenient at the top and pricier at the margin. Multilateral lenders hold TZS 57.84 trillion (59.5% of external debt); commercial lenders TZS 33.50 trillion (34.5%). At home, Treasury bonds are TZS 34.80 trillion (84.6% of domestic debt), and banks and pension funds hold 55.9% of the stock.
Arrears are the warning light. External arrears doubled from USD 584.1 million to USD 1,197.4 million (TZS 1.54 trillion to TZS 3.16 trillion). Commercial principal arrears almost tripled, from TZS 0.49 trillion to TZS 1.45 trillion.
The cost is rising inside the budget. The 2026/27 budget carries TZS 6.86 trillion of interest (14.8% of revenue) and TZS 7.84 trillion of principal repayments. In July, interest ran 33.7% above the estimate and domestic interest almost doubled.
National debt
TZS 138.3T
USD 52,344.2M; flat vs Aug-26
External debt
TZS 97.2T
USD 36,784.2M; +6.6% y/y (USD)
Domestic debt
TZS 41.1T
+9.8% y/y; 89.6% securities
External arrears
TZS 3.2T
USD 1,197.4M; +105% y/y
External debt service, 12m
TZS 7.0T
USD 2,658.3M; 12.6% of exports of goods & services
External debt ÷ exports
175%
USD 36.8B ÷ USD 21.1B exports of goods & services
Budgeted interest 2026/27
TZS 6.86T
12.6% of spending; 14.8% of revenue
Undisbursed external debt
TZS 39.7T
USD 15,011.6M committed, not yet drawn
National Debt, TZS Trillion: External and Domestic
TZS trillion. External amounts converted at one constant rate (TZS 2,642.26/USD) to remove valuation noise. Domestic debt excludes liquidity papers. Source: BoT MER Tables 2.6.1, 2.6.5.
Who Holds Tanzania's Debt? Total TZS 138.3 Trillion
TZS trillion, by creditor or holder, domestic and external combined. Multilateral lenders (57.8) and commercial external lenders (33.5) hold two-thirds. Source: BoT MER Tables 2.6.2, 2.6.6; TICGL/TERI conversion.
External Debt in TZS Trillion at Each Year-End, 2018–2025
TZS trillion, USD stock converted at each year-end exchange rate (BoT Table A1), plus Sep-26 at TZS 2,642.26. The shilling value has risen about 1.9 times since 2018. Source: BoT MER Table A1; TICGL/TERI arithmetic.
Debt Structure Indicators
Percent. Shares of the external and domestic stocks as reported at end-September 2026. Source: BoT MER Tables 2.6.1–2.6.6.
The debt in one table
TZS trillion
Sep-25*
Aug-26
Sep-26
Share Sep-26
Change y/y
External debt (incl. interest arrears)
91.18
97.36
97.19
70.3%
+6.6%
Central government
77.39
81.33
81.11
58.6%
+4.8%
Private sector
13.79
16.04
16.09
11.6%
+16.7%
Domestic debt (excl. liquidity papers)
37.46
40.90
41.11
29.7%
+9.8%
National debt
128.64
138.26
138.30
100%
+7.5%
Table 0.1. *External amounts converted at the constant Sep-26 implied rate (TZS 2,642.26 per USD), so changes are changes in the debt as reported in dollars. Source: BoT MER Tables 2.6.1, 2.6.5; TICGL/TERI arithmetic. In dollars the Bank reports national debt at USD 52,341.1M (Aug-26) and USD 52,344.2M (Sep-26).
Key findings
Stable stock. The total moved by under 0.1% in September: external disbursements of USD 234.3 million (TZS 0.62 trillion) were offset by principal repayments of USD 122.0 million and valuation.
External is the larger and the more concessional half. Multilateral lenders are 59.5% of external debt; 83.4% is owed by central government.
Domestic debt is a bond market. Bonds are 84.6% and bills 4.6% (TZS 1.90 trillion); the central bank overdraft is down 13.3% to TZS 4.29 trillion.
The shilling is a valuation channel. With 65.3% of external debt in US dollars and 18.1% in euros, a 10% depreciation raises the shilling value of external debt by about TZS 9.7 trillion.
Arrears are growing faster than the stock. They are 3.3% of external debt, up from 1.7% a year ago.
The pipeline is large. USD 15.0 billion (TZS 39.7 trillion) of committed loans is still undisbursed, down from USD 19.4 billion a year earlier.
Reading
The stock is large and steady, but the pressure sits in service, not size: dollar-denominated interest, rising commercial arrears and a budget that must roll over TZS 3.3 trillion of domestic principal and repay TZS 4.6 trillion of external principal in 2026/27. The review does not publish debt-to-GDP, so sustainability ratios on this page use exports and budget revenue.
External debt held by the public and private sectors was USD 36,784.2 million at end-September 2026, TZS 97.19 trillion at the implied rate. The public sector owes 83.4%. During September the stock was stable: disbursements of USD 234.3 million (largely to the central government) and debt service of USD 171.9 million, of which USD 122.0 million was principal.
Creditor (TZS trillion)
Sep-25
Share
Aug-26
Sep-26
Share
Change y/y
Multilateral
53.45
58.6%
57.86
57.84
59.5%
+8.2%
Commercial
31.82
34.9%
33.61
33.50
34.5%
+5.3%
Bilateral
4.12
4.5%
4.12
4.09
4.2%
-0.8%
Export credit
1.79
2.0%
1.76
1.76
1.8%
-1.6%
External debt stock
91.18
100%
97.36
97.19
100%
+6.6%
Table 1.1. Includes interest arrears. USD amounts × TZS 2,642.26 per USD (constant). Source: BoT MER Table 2.6.2; TICGL/TERI arithmetic.
External Debt by Creditor: Sep-25 vs Sep-26
TZS trillion at a constant rate. Multilateral +4.4, commercial +1.7; bilateral and export credit slightly lower. Source: BoT MER Table 2.6.2.
Disbursed External Debt by Borrower, Monthly
TZS trillion at a constant rate, Sep-25 to Sep-26. Central government TZS 80.9 trillion; private sector TZS 15.4 trillion. Source: BoT MER Table A10.
Table 1.2. Source: BoT MER Tables 2.6.4, A10. Shares as reported by the Bank; interest arrears of USD 329.9M are added to reach the USD 36,784.2M stock.
External Debt by Currency, September 2026
TZS trillion, disbursed outstanding debt. A move in the dollar matters 3.6 times as much as a move in the euro. Source: BoT MER Table A10.
What the Money Was Used For, September 2026
TZS trillion, disbursed external debt by use of funds. Budget support is the largest (23.2%), then transport and telecommunications (21.0%) and social services (19.3%). Source: BoT MER Table A10.
Flows: borrowing, repayment and the pipeline
Monthly Disbursements and Debt Service
TZS trillion, Sep-25 to Sep-26 at a constant rate. Disbursements (line) against principal and interest. Total disbursements over Oct-25 to Sep-26: TZS 11.02 trillion; service TZS 7.02 trillion. Source: BoT MER Table A10.
Committed, Disbursed and Undisbursed Loans
TZS trillion, constant rate. Undisbursed commitments fell from 51.4 to 39.7 trillion; the step down in June 2026 (USD 19.6B to 15.5B) coincides with a lower total commitment in the Bank's table. Source: BoT MER Table A10.
Reading
The external debt profile is conventional for a lower-middle-income country: long-dated multilateral money, a one-third commercial layer, and the dollar as the main currency. The trade-off is the commercial layer, which is growing faster than the multilateral layer in arrears terms, and the 65.3% US dollar share that makes the shilling value of debt sensitive to the exchange rate.
02 — Domestic DebtTZS 41.1 Trillion Borrowed at Home: A Bond Market Held by Banks and Pension Funds
The domestic debt stock reached TZS 41.11 trillion at end-September 2026 (TZS 40.90 trillion in August; TZS 37.46 trillion in September 2025, excluding liquidity papers). Commercial banks and pension funds together hold more than half. In September the Government raised TZS 0.356 trillion (TZS 0.178 trillion of bonds and TZS 0.178 trillion of 364-day bills) and paid domestic debt service of TZS 0.556 trillion: TZS 0.251 trillion of principal and TZS 0.306 trillion of interest.
By instrument (TZS trillion)
Sep-25
Share
Aug-26
Sep-26
Share
Change y/y
Treasury bonds
30.30
80.9%
34.79
34.80
84.6%
+14.8%
Treasury bills
2.06
5.5%
1.79
1.90
4.6%
−7.9%
Government stocks
0.14
0.4%
0.14
0.14
0.3%
−0.1%
Government securities (subtotal)
32.50
86.8%
36.72
36.83
89.6%
+13.3%
Overdraft (Bank of Tanzania)
4.94
13.2%
4.18
4.29
10.4%
−13.3%
Domestic debt (excl. liquidity papers)
37.46
100%
40.90
41.11
100%
+9.8%
Table 2.1. Source: BoT MER Table 2.6.5; TICGL/TERI arithmetic. Sep-25 also had TZS 0.02 trillion of other liabilities.
TZS trillion. Banks and pension funds each hold about TZS 11 trillion; "others" (including non-residents) grew fastest, +14.5%. Source: BoT MER Table 2.6.6.
Share of Domestic Debt by Holder, September 2026
Percent of TZS 41.11 trillion. Banks 28.5%, pension funds 27.4%, others 19.7%, Bank of Tanzania 17.4%, insurers 4.9%, special funds 2.1%. Source: BoT MER Table 2.6.6.
September 2026 Domestic Market Activity
TZS trillion. Raised TZS 0.356; principal repaid 0.251; interest paid 0.306. Net new money after principal TZS 0.105. Source: BoT MER section 2.6.
What domestic borrowing costs
Treasury Bond Yield Curve: Sep-25 vs Sep-26
Yield, %. The curve has dropped up to 3.8 points and the 10-year is 10.69%. Lower yields mean lower interest on new issues, but the stock is mostly older bonds. Source: BoT MER Table A4.
Monthly Interest Bill: Budget Average, July Estimate and July Actual
TZS trillion per month. The 2026/27 budget (domestic 4.03, foreign 2.83, total 6.86 a year) averages 0.572 a month; in July, domestic interest was 0.384 against a 0.192 estimate while foreign interest was 0.181 against 0.230. Source: BoT MER Table A2.
Reading
Domestic debt is growing slower than the economy's nominal money supply (M3 +25.9%), the market is oversubscribed (bond bid cover of 2.4 times in September) and yields are lower, so the domestic side is the most manageable part of the debt. Two things to watch: concentration, as banks and pension funds hold 55.9% of the stock and so cannot easily lend elsewhere, and the opening of Government securities to foreign investors from 17 July 2026, which could change both the holder mix and the exchange-rate exposure.
03 — Debt Service & ArrearsTZS 7.0 Trillion of External Service a Year, and Arrears That Have Doubled
In the twelve months from October 2025 to September 2026, external debt service was USD 2,658.3 million (TZS 7.02 trillion): USD 1,914.8 million of principal and USD 743.5 million of interest. New disbursements were USD 4,171.7 million (TZS 11.02 trillion), so net flows were positive. External arrears, however, rose every month.
External service, 12m
TZS 7.02T
principal 5.06T + interest 1.96T
Disbursements, 12m
TZS 11.02T
1.57 times service
Service ÷ exports
12.6%
of USD 21,065M exports of goods & services
Arrears ÷ external debt
3.3%
1.7% a year ago (USD 584M ÷ 34.5B)
Monthly External Debt Service: Principal and Interest
TZS trillion at a constant rate. Spikes in October and December 2025 (principal) and April and June 2026. Source: BoT MER Table A10.
Net Flows and Net Transfers on External Debt
TZS trillion per month. Net flows = disbursements less principal; net transfers = net flows less interest. Negative only in April 2026 (flows) and October, February and April (transfers). Source: BoT MER Table A10.
Arrears in TZS trillion
Arrears (TZS trillion)
Sep-25
Dec-25
Mar-26
Jun-26
Aug-26
Sep-26
Change y/y
Principal arrears
1.06
1.21
1.30
1.65
1.99
2.29
+115.9%
Commercial
0.49
0.56
0.64
0.84
1.17
1.45
+197.9%
Bilateral
0.46
0.49
0.50
0.52
0.53
0.53
+13.6%
Export credit
0.11
0.16
0.17
0.25
0.27
0.28
+151.6%
Multilateral
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.03
0.04
0.04
—
Interest arrears
0.48
0.55
0.59
0.73
0.82
0.87
+81.0%
Total arrears
1.54
1.77
1.89
2.37
2.82
3.16
+105.0%
Table 3.1. USD × TZS 2,642.26 per USD (constant). Source: BoT MER Table A10 item 10; TICGL/TERI arithmetic.
External Arrears: Principal and Interest
TZS trillion, Sep-25 to Sep-26. Total arrears rose from 1.54 to 3.16 trillion; the monthly rise has been 0.2–0.35 trillion since May. Source: BoT MER Table A10.
External debt service ÷ exports of goods and services
12.6%
USD 2,658.3M ÷ USD 21,065.1M, 12 months to Sep-26
External debt ÷ exports of goods and services
174.6%
USD 36,784.2M ÷ USD 21,065.1M
External debt service ÷ gross reserves
44.1%
USD 2,658.3M ÷ USD 6,031.9M
Interest ÷ principal, external service
38.8%
USD 743.5M ÷ USD 1,914.8M
Arrears ÷ external debt stock
3.3%
USD 1,197.4M ÷ USD 36,784.2M (1.7% in Sep-25)
Commercial debt ÷ external debt
34.5%
USD 12,677.7M ÷ USD 36,784.2M
Table 3.2. No sustainability thresholds are asserted; the review does not publish a debt-sustainability analysis.
Why the arrears matter
The arrears stock is small against the TZS 97 trillion of external debt, but its direction is clear: up every month, led by commercial creditors, with principal arrears more than doubling. A build-up of arrears usually reflects processing or foreign-currency liquidity frictions rather than inability to pay, but if it persists it raises the premium commercial lenders ask on new loans and can delay disbursements from the TZS 39.7 trillion pipeline that is still undrawn.
04 — Budget & CalculatorHow the 2026/27 Budget Pays for the Debt, and What a Weaker Shilling Would Add
The 2026/27 budget estimates revenue of TZS 46.23 trillion and spending of TZS 54.50 trillion, a deficit after grants of TZS 7.71 trillion. Debt takes a large slice: TZS 6.86 trillion of interest (TZS 4.03 trillion domestic, TZS 2.83 trillion foreign), plus principal repayments of TZS 4.55 trillion on external loans and TZS 3.29 trillion on domestic debt, which is rolled over.
Debt in the 2026/27 budget (TZS trillion)
Amount
% of revenue
% of spending
Interest payments
6.86
14.8%
12.6%
Domestic interest
4.03
8.7%
7.4%
Foreign interest
2.83
6.1%
5.2%
External principal (amortization)
4.55
9.8%
8.3%
Domestic principal (rolled over)
3.29
7.1%
6.0%
Interest plus principal
14.70
31.8%
27.0%
Table 4.1. Source: BoT MER Table A2; shares are TICGL/TERI arithmetic.
Financing the 2026/27 budget (TZS trillion)
Annual budget
July estimate
July actual
Overall deficit financed (after grants)
7.71
0.08
−0.49 (surplus)
Foreign loans (gross)
8.99
0.23
1.36
Program loans
1.79
0.00
1.16
Development project loans
7.14
0.23
0.20
of which non-concessional
2.43
0.00
0.00
Foreign amortization
−4.55
−0.08
−0.27
Foreign financing (net)
4.43
0.15
1.09
Domestic financing (net)
3.27
−0.08
−1.58
Bank borrowing
2.06
−0.06
−1.86
Non-bank (net of amortization)
1.22
−0.01
0.28
Domestic roll-over borrowing
3.29
0.21
0.08
Table 4.2. Source: BoT MER Table A2. July actual: foreign program loans of TZS 1.16 trillion were 65% of the full-year program-loan budget, and the Government repaid TZS 1.86 trillion to the banking system.
Debt Service in the 2026/27 Budget
TZS trillion. Interest 6.86 plus principal 7.84 = 14.70, or 31.8% of budgeted revenue. Source: BoT MER Table A2.
Where the 2026/27 Borrowing Comes From
TZS trillion. Project loans 7.14 (of which non-concessional 2.43) dominate; domestic bank and non-bank net borrowing 3.27 plus 3.29 rolled over. Source: BoT MER Table A2.
July 2026: Financing, Estimate vs Actual
TZS trillion. Foreign net financing came in at 1.09 against 0.15 estimated; domestic financing was −1.58 against −0.08. Source: BoT MER Table A2.
What a Weaker Shilling Does to the Debt Stock
TZS trillion, September 2026 stock revalued at a shilling 0–20% weaker. Domestic debt (41.1) does not change; external debt rises by about 9.7 trillion per 10%. TICGL/TERI arithmetic.
National debt calculator (TZS trillion)
Starts from the September 2026 stock (external USD 36.78 billion; domestic TZS 41.11 trillion; implied rate TZS 2,642.26 per USD). Enter an exchange-rate move and new net borrowing. Defaults add a year of the budgeted net financing (USD 1.68 billion external, TZS 3.27 trillion domestic) with no exchange-rate change. An arithmetic illustration, not a forecast.
External debt, TZS T
101.63
Domestic debt, TZS T
44.38
National debt, TZS T
146.02
Change vs Sep-26, TZS T
+7.71
Reading
A third of budgeted revenue goes to interest and principal, and July's outturn shows how the mix can shift: foreign program loans of TZS 1.16 trillion arrived early and were used to repay TZS 1.86 trillion to the banking system. That is a positive liquidity event for banks, and it front-loads foreign borrowing: 65% of the year's program-loan budget arrived in the first month. The calculator shows the other side: a 10% weaker shilling adds more to the debt stock (TZS 9.7 trillion) than a full year of planned net domestic borrowing (TZS 3.3 trillion).
05 — Outlook & PolicyFive Debt Indicators to Watch Over the Next Two Quarters
The review shows a debt stock that is stable and a financing environment that is supportive: domestic auctions are oversubscribed, yields are lower, foreign investors are being admitted, and multilateral lenders continue to disburse. The pressure points are arrears, commercial debt and interest costs. TICGL/TERI would track the following.
Indicator
Latest
Level that would change the reading
Why
External arrears
TZS 3.16T (USD 1.20B)
Above USD 1.5B, or commercial arrears above USD 700M
Rising 8–14% a month since May; signals liquidity or processing friction
Commercial share of external debt
34.5%
Rising above 35% while multilateral share falls
Commercial debt carries higher cost and shorter tenor
Domestic interest bill
TZS 0.38T in July
Run-rate above TZS 0.34T a month (4.03T ÷ 12)
July was double the estimate; falling yields should help new issues
Foreign holdings of Government securities
Not yet reported
First data after GN 206 of 17 July 2026
Could lower yields; adds FX and reversal risk
Shilling vs US dollar
TZS 2,654.91
Depreciation beyond 5% in a quarter
Each 10% adds about TZS 9.7T to external debt
Undisbursed pipeline
TZS 39.7T (USD 15.0B)
Disbursements below service for two months
Net flows were negative in April 2026
Table 5.1. Thresholds are TICGL/TERI judgements, not official limits. Latest values: BoT MER October 2026.
Illustrative debt path: one more year of budgeted financing
National Debt in TZS Trillion After a Year of Budgeted Net Financing, at Different Exchange Rates
TZS trillion. September 2026 stock plus budgeted net foreign financing (USD 1.68B) and net domestic financing (TZS 3.27T), with the shilling 0%, 5% and 10% weaker. TICGL/TERI illustration, not a forecast.
Policy implications
Debt management
Clear commercial and export-credit arrears first; they have tripled and more than doubled.
Publish a quarterly arrears-by-creditor table with the debt bulletin.
Lengthen domestic maturities while yields are lower.
Fiscal policy
Hold interest at the budgeted 12.6% of spending by phasing non-concessional borrowing (TZS 2.43T planned).
Use the July program-loan inflow to rebuild deposits rather than front-load spending.
Publish debt-to-GDP in the monthly review.
Exchange-rate exposure
Match foreign-currency debt service to export and tourism receipts.
Consider shilling-denominated issuance for foreign investors under the new rules.
Track the 65.3% US dollar share and 18.1% euro share.
Investors and lenders
Treat arrears as a leading indicator of payment friction.
Foreign buyers of Treasury bonds should price FX and exit risk.
Local banks and pension funds: diversification beyond a 55.9% holding.
Talk to TICGL/TERI
Need a debt-sustainability briefing, a shilling-bond investor note, or a feasibility study for a project that depends on public financing? Our economists can tailor this analysis to your sector.
06 — Sources & Data NotesMethod, Definitions and Reconciliation Notes
Basis
Source report. Bank of Tanzania, Monthly Economic Review, October 2026 (data to September 2026): Tables 2.6.1–2.6.6 (debt developments), Table A1 (selected indicators), Table A2 (central government operations), Table A4 (interest rates) and Table A10 (national debt developments). Calculations. Conversions to TZS trillion, shares, changes, ratios, scenarios and calculator results are TICGL/TERI arithmetic on published figures.
Definitions and reconciliation notes
Item
Treatment on this page
Exchange rate used for conversion
The Bank reports external debt in US dollars and domestic debt in shillings. Its national-debt total of USD 52,344.2M implies domestic debt of USD 15,560.0M, i.e. TZS 2,642.26 per USD (TZS 41,113.5B ÷ USD 15,560.0M). That rate converts all external amounts. The September 2026 interbank average was TZS 2,654.91, which would raise external debt by 0.5%.
Constant-rate comparisons
Sep-25, Aug-26 and monthly series use the same rate, so changes show borrowing and repayment as reported in dollars. Converting at each month's actual rate would add the shilling's depreciation (7.4% y/y on average) to the shilling value of the external debt.
Year-end history
The 2018–2025 chart converts the dollar stock at each year-end exchange rate from Table A1, so it includes valuation effects.
External debt definitions
"External debt stock" (USD 36,784.2M) = disbursed outstanding debt (USD 36,454.3M) + interest arrears (USD 329.9M). Principal arrears (USD 867.5M) are inside disbursed debt and are shown separately as arrears.
Domestic debt basis
Excludes liquidity papers, as in Table 2.6.5. The Sep-25 total of TZS 37,459.0B includes TZS 18.4B of other liabilities.
Debt service
12-month external debt service is the sum of principal and interest for October 2025 to September 2026 in Table A10. The September domestic figures are from the text of section 2.6.
Budget figures
2026/27 amounts are the budget estimates in Table A2 for Tanzania Mainland; July amounts are cheques-issued outturns and are provisional.
Not in the review
Debt-to-GDP, public-sector-only debt service ratios and a debt-sustainability rating are not published in this issue, so none is estimated here.
Rounding
Totals may differ from component sums by rounding.
Bank of Tanzania (October 2026), Monthly Economic Review, section 2.6 and Tables A1, A2, A4, A10.
Ministry of Finance (Tanzania), debt and budget data as cited by the Bank of Tanzania.
TICGL/TERI calculations on the above.
07 — Quick AnswersFrequently Asked Questions
How large is Tanzania's national debt in TZS trillion?
National debt was USD 52,344.2 million at end-September 2026, about TZS 138.3 trillion at the exchange rate implied by the Bank of Tanzania's totals (TZS 2,642 per USD). External debt is about TZS 97.2 trillion (70.3%) and domestic debt TZS 41.1 trillion (29.7%).
How much of Tanzania's debt is external?
70.3% of the national debt (USD 36,784.2 million) is external. Multilateral lenders hold 59.5% of it, commercial lenders 34.5%, bilateral lenders 4.2% and export-credit agencies 1.8%. The central government owes 83.4% of the external stock; the private sector 16.6%.
What is Tanzania's domestic debt?
TZS 41.1 trillion at end-September 2026, up 9.8% in a year. Government securities are 89.6% (Treasury bonds TZS 34.8 trillion, Treasury bills TZS 1.9 trillion); the Bank of Tanzania overdraft is TZS 4.3 trillion. Commercial banks hold 28.5% and pension funds 27.4%.
What are Tanzania's external debt arrears?
External debt arrears rose from USD 584.1 million in September 2025 to USD 1,197.4 million in September 2026 (about TZS 3.2 trillion), a 105% increase. Principal arrears are USD 867.5 million and interest arrears USD 329.9 million; commercial creditors account for USD 549.6 million of the principal.
How much does Tanzania pay each year in debt service?
In the 12 months to September 2026 external debt service was about USD 2.66 billion (about TZS 7.0 trillion), or 12.6% of exports of goods and services. The 2026/27 budget provides TZS 6.86 trillion for interest, 14.8% of budgeted revenue of TZS 46.23 trillion, plus TZS 7.84 trillion of principal repayments.
Which currencies is Tanzania's external debt in?
The US dollar is 65.3% of external debt, the euro 18.1%, the Chinese yuan 6.7% and other currencies 10.0%. A 10% depreciation of the shilling adds roughly TZS 9.7 trillion to the shilling value of external debt.
Is Tanzania's debt sustainable?
The Bank of Tanzania review does not publish debt-to-GDP or a sustainability rating. The indicators it supports are mixed: the debt stock is stable month to month, most external debt is concessional-style multilateral lending, and exports are growing 19.9%, but arrears have doubled, commercial debt is 34.5% of external debt, and interest is 14.8% of budgeted revenue.
08 — Explore MoreTICGL Economic: Related Insights & Tools
Companion
Tanzania Economic Update, October 2026
The full Bank of Tanzania review: inflation, credit, markets, fiscal, external sector and Zanzibar.
Deni la Taifa la Tanzania, Oktoba 2026 (TZS trilioni): Kwa mujibu wa Mapitio ya Kila Mwezi ya Uchumi ya Benki Kuu ya Tanzania, deni la taifa mwishoni mwa Septemba 2026 lilikuwa USD milioni 52,344.2, sawa na takriban TZS trilioni 138.3. Kiasi hicho hakikubadilika kwa mwezi, lakini malimbikizo ya madeni ya nje yameongezeka mara mbili.
Muundo wa deni: deni la nje ni takriban TZS trilioni 97.2 (asilimia 70.3), na deni la ndani ni TZS trilioni 41.1 (asilimia 29.7). Asilimia 83.4 ya deni la nje linadaiwa na serikali kuu; taasisi za kimataifa (multilateral) zinashikilia asilimia 59.5 na wakopeshaji wa kibiashara asilimia 34.5. Dola ya Marekani ni asilimia 65.3 ya deni la nje na euro asilimia 18.1.
Deni la ndani: TZS trilioni 41.1, ongezeko la asilimia 9.8 kwa mwaka. Hati fungani ni TZS trilioni 34.8 (asilimia 84.6), hati za muda mfupi (bili) TZS trilioni 1.9, na overdraft ya Benki Kuu TZS trilioni 4.3. Benki za biashara (asilimia 28.5) na mifuko ya pensheni (asilimia 27.4) zinashikilia zaidi ya nusu ya deni.
Malimbikizo: malimbikizo ya madeni ya nje yalipanda kutoka USD milioni 584.1 hadi 1,197.4 (takriban TZS trilioni 3.2), ongezeko la asilimia 105. Malimbikizo ya kibiashara yalikaribia mara tatu, kutoka TZS trilioni 0.49 hadi 1.45.
Gharama ya deni: katika miezi 12 hadi Septemba 2026, huduma ya deni la nje ilikuwa takriban TZS trilioni 7.0 (USD bilioni 2.66), sawa na asilimia 12.6 ya mauzo ya nje ya bidhaa na huduma. Bajeti ya 2026/27 inatenga TZS trilioni 6.86 kwa riba (asilimia 14.8 ya mapato) na TZS trilioni 7.84 kwa marejesho ya mtaji.
Hatari ya kubadilika kwa shilingi: shilingi ikidhoofika kwa asilimia 10, deni la nje linaongezeka kwa takriban TZS trilioni 9.7 kwa thamani ya shilingi, zaidi ya mikopo mipya ya ndani yote iliyopangwa kwa mwaka (TZS trilioni 3.3).
Hitimisho na hatua: hali ya jumla ni tulivu, lakini shinikizo liko kwenye malimbikizo, mikopo ya kibiashara na riba. Ya kufuatilia: malimbikizo juu ya USD bilioni 1.5, mkopo wa kibiashara juu ya asilimia 35 ya deni la nje, bili ya riba ya ndani, na mwenendo wa shilingi dhidi ya dola.
Malimbikizo ya nje: TZS trilioni 3.2 (+asilimia 105) · Huduma ya deni la nje (miezi 12): TZS trilioni 7.0
Riba ya bajeti 2026/27: TZS trilioni 6.86 · Marejesho ya mtaji: TZS trilioni 7.84
Chanzo: Benki Kuu ya Tanzania, Monthly Economic Review, Oktoba 2026; Wizara ya Fedha; mahesabu ya TICGL/TERI. Kwa maelezo zaidi: economist@ticgl.com.
Tanzania Domestic Debt by Creditor, Sept 2026: TZS 41.1 Trillion, Banks and Pensions Hold 56% | TICGL
TICGL Home / Economic Insights / Domestic Debt by Creditor Category | TICGL/TERI Debt Research, 30 October 2026
TICGL/TERI Economic ResearchDomestic DebtBoT Monthly Economic Review, Oct 2026
Who Holds Tanzania's Domestic Debt? Banks and Pension Funds Own 56% of the TZS 41 Trillion Stock
Government domestic debt reached TZS 41,113.5 billion at end-September 2026. Commercial banks hold 28.5% and pension funds27.4%, together more than half; the Bank of Tanzania holds 17.4%. The fastest-growing category is "others" (+14.5% in a year), which includes public institutions, companies, individuals and non-residents. This page analyses the stock by creditor category, by instrument, its growth and cost, and what it means for bank credit and pension investment, using the BoT Monthly Economic Review, October 2026 (Tables 2.6.5, 2.6.6, Chart 2.6.1).
📅 Period: Sep 2020 – Sep 2026 · 🏛️ TICGL / TERI Economic Research Division · Source: BoT Monthly Economic Review, October 2026; Ministry of Finance. Growth rates, contributions and cost estimates are TICGL/TERI arithmetic.
Domestic debt, Sep-26
TZS 41.1tn +9.8% y/y
Banks + pension funds
55.8% TZS 22.96tn
Bank of Tanzania
17.4% TZS 7.16tn
Government bonds
84.6% of stock
Scope
Prepared by TERI for research and strategic-information purposes; not investment, legal, tax or financial advice. The creditor table excludes liquidity papers. Year-on-year changes use Table 2.6.6 (Sep-25: TZS 37,459.0bn); the long-run series (Chart 2.6.1) shows TZS 37,819.1bn for Sep-25, a small definitional difference. Sep-26 data are provisional.
00 — Overview & VerdictA Domestic Debt Market Anchored by Banks and Pensions, With the Margin Moving to "Others"
Concentration: commercial banks (TZS 11,703.1bn) and pension funds (TZS 11,256.1bn) hold 55.8% of the stock. Adding the Bank of Tanzania (17.4%) and its special funds (2.1%), 75.3% sits with the financial and monetary system.
Growth: debt rose TZS 3,654.5bn (+9.8%) in a year. "Others" contributed 28.1% of the increase, pension funds 26.7% and commercial banks 26.0%; the BoT's holdings grew slowest (+6.1%).
Structure: 89.6% is government securities, of which bonds are 84.6%; the remaining 10.4% is the BoT overdraft. Domestic debt service in September was TZS 556.4bn (interest TZS 305.6bn).
Table 1.1. Source: BoT, Table 2.6.6 (excluding liquidity papers); change, growth and contributions TICGL calc. "Others" include public institutions, private companies, individuals and non-residents.
Reading
Shares have barely moved (banks 28.7% to 28.5%, BoT 18.0% to 17.4%), but "others" gained 0.8pp to 19.7%. Foreign investors gained access to Government securities on 17 July 2026; BoT does not split non-residents out, so their role in this rise cannot be confirmed from these data.
02 — Instruments & CostLong Bonds Dominate; Yields Have Fallen Along the Curve
Domestic Debt by Instrument
TZS billion. Sep-25 vs Sep-26. Source: BoT, Table 2.6.5
Treasury Bond Yield Curve
%. Sep-25 vs Sep-26. Source: BoT, Table A4
Government Securities Issued for Financing
TZS billion per month: Treasury bills and bonds. Source: BoT, Chart 2.6.2
TZS billion
Sep-25
Aug-26
Sep-26
Share
Government securities
32,498.5
36,722.5
36,827.7
89.6%
Government bonds
30,304.0
34,793.4
34,795.6
84.6%
Treasury bills
2,058.7
1,793.4
1,896.4
4.6%
Government stocks
135.8
135.7
135.7
0.3%
Non-securitized debt (overdraft)
4,960.5
4,176.9
4,285.8
10.4%
Domestic debt stock
37,459.0
40,899.5
41,113.5
100%
Table 2.1. Source: BoT, Table 2.6.5 (tax certificates TZS 0.1bn and other liabilities not shown separately).
Implied cost: FY2026/27 budgeted domestic interest of TZS 4,030.3bn is about 9.8% of the stock (TICGL calc.); July domestic interest was TZS 383.8bn, nearly double its estimate.
Overdraft: the BoT overdraft fell from TZS 4,942.1bn to 4,285.8bn (−13.3%) in a year.
Reading
With bonds at 84.6% and yields of 9–11.5% for most maturities against 4.85% on bills, the bulk of the stock locks in high coupons. Lower yields at the 2- and 5-year points (8.40%, 9.53%, down from 12.17%, 12.48%) reduce rollover cost, but the 15-year yield rose to 10.79%.
%, year to September. 2022 spike +49.4%. Source: Ministry of Finance; TICGL/TERI calc.
Government Debt vs Private Credit Growth
% y/y, Sep-26. Private credit +34.2% vs banks' government debt +8.8%. Source: BoT, Tables 2.2.1, 2.6.6
Indicator
Sep-25
Sep-26
Reading
Domestic debt (TZS bn)
37,459.0
41,113.5
+9.8%
Domestic debt (USD M)
15,407.9
15,560.0
+1.0% in dollars: shilling depreciation absorbs the growth
Private sector credit (TZS bn)
41,999.9
56,359.4
+34.2%
Banks' government debt ÷ private credit
25.6%
20.8%
Falling (TICGL calc.)
Securities held by banks (TZS bn)
8,723.1
12,056.9
+38.2% (broader BoT definition)
Table 3.1. Source: BoT, Tables 2.2.1, 2.6.6 and A10; ratios TICGL calc. Securities held by banks is a different series from the creditor-table claim.
Reading
Over the long run, domestic debt grew 2.7 times since September 2020 (about 17.9% a year). The latest year is the slowest since 2021, and banks' holdings per unit of private credit fell to 20.8%, so private lending, not government paper, absorbed most of bank balance sheet growth. The BoT's broader securities series, however, grew 38.2%, so the picture depends on definition.
04 — Risk & CalculatorRollover, Concentration and Cost
Concentration risk: 55.8% with banks and pension funds means government borrowing competes with credit to business and with long-term investment by pension funds.
Rollover: the FY2026/27 budget shows TZS 3,285.4bn of borrowing and roll-over matched by equal domestic amortization.
July operations: net bank financing was −TZS 1,864.5bn (repayment) and non-bank +TZS 283.5bn, funded by program loans.
Opening to foreign investors (July 2026) could widen the creditor base and reduce yields, but adds exchange-rate exposure for investors and capital-flow risk.
Domestic interest cost calculator
Defaults: Sep-26 stock; average cost 9.8% (budgeted FY26/27 domestic interest ÷ stock); +1pp shock on the share repricing within the year (the 20% share is an illustrative assumption, not a BoT figure).
Annual interest, TZS bn
4,029
Extra interest, TZS bn
82
New interest, TZS bn
4,111
vs FY26/27 budget
102%
Bottom line
Domestic debt is a bank-and-pension market with a long-bond bias. The priorities are to widen the investor base carefully, lengthen maturity at falling yields, and keep government borrowing from squeezing private credit and pension returns.
How TICGL and TERI can help
TICGL/TERI supports debt-market analysis, pension and bank portfolio studies, PPP structuring and capital-market development. Contact economist@ticgl.com.
Source. Bank of Tanzania, Monthly Economic Review, October 2026 (Tables 2.2.1, 2.6.5, 2.6.6, A2, A4, A10; Charts 2.6.1, 2.6.2) with Ministry of Finance data. Calculations. Growth, contributions, ratios, the implied cost (budgeted domestic interest ÷ stock, a rough proxy) and the calculator are TICGL/TERI arithmetic. The creditor table covers debt excluding liquidity papers; "others" includes public institutions, private companies, individuals and non-residents. Domestic debt in USD uses BoT's A10 series. Provisional data may be revised.
06 — Quick AnswersFrequently Asked Questions
How large is Tanzania's domestic debt?
TZS 41,113.5 billion at end-September 2026, up from TZS 40,899.5 billion in August and TZS 37,459.0 billion in September 2025 (+9.8%), on the creditor-table basis.
Who holds Tanzania's domestic debt?
Commercial banks hold 28.5% (TZS 11,703.1 billion), pension funds 27.4%, the Bank of Tanzania 17.4%, insurers 4.9%, BoT special funds 2.1% and others 19.7%.
Which creditor category grew fastest?
Others, which include public institutions, private companies, individuals and non-residents, grew 14.5% to TZS 8,095.4 billion, followed by insurers at 11.2% and BoT special funds at 10.8%.
What instruments make up domestic debt?
Government bonds are 84.6% of the stock, overdraft 10.4%, Treasury bills 4.6% and government stocks 0.3%.
07 — Explore MoreTICGL Economic: Related Insights & Tools
Related Analysis
Government Securities Dominance: The Crowding-Out Problem
How government paper competes with private credit.
Deni la ndani la Serikali kwa makundi ya wakopeshaji, Septemba 2026: deni la ndani ni TZS bilioni 41,113.5 (ongezeko la asilimia 9.8 kwa mwaka).
Wakopeshaji: benki za biashara asilimia 28.5 (TZS bilioni 11,703.1), mifuko ya pensheni asilimia 27.4 (bilioni 11,256.1), Benki Kuu asilimia 17.4 (bilioni 7,163.8), bima asilimia 4.9, mifuko maalum ya BoT asilimia 2.1 na wengine asilimia 19.7. Benki na mifuko ya pensheni kwa pamoja zinashikilia zaidi ya nusu (asilimia 55.8).
Ukuaji: kundi la "wengine" (taasisi za umma, kampuni, watu binafsi na wasio wakazi) lilikua kwa kasi zaidi (asilimia 14.5) na lilichangia asilimia 28.1 ya ongezeko; hisa za Benki Kuu zilikua polepole zaidi (asilimia 6.1).
Hati: hati fungani ni asilimia 84.6 ya deni, overdraft asilimia 10.4, hati za Hazina asilimia 4.6. Mapato ya hati fungani za miaka 5 na 10 yameshuka hadi asilimia 9.53 na 10.69. Mikopo ya sekta binafsi imekua asilimia 34.2, haraka kuliko deni la Serikali lililoshikiliwa na benki.
Mapendekezo: kupanua wigo wa wawekezaji kwa tahadhari, kurefusha ukomavu wa deni wakati mapato ya hati fungani yanashuka, na kuzuia ukopaji wa Serikali usibane mikopo ya sekta binafsi.
Tanzania External Debt Sept 2026: By Borrower, Use of Funds and Currency | TICGL
TICGL Home / Economic Insights / External Debt by Borrower, Use of Funds and Currency | TICGL/TERI Debt Research, 30 October 2026
TICGL/TERI Economic ResearchExternal DebtBoT Monthly Economic Review, Oct 2026
Who Owes Tanzania's External Debt, What It Funded, and In Which Currencies? The BoT Data for September 2026
Tanzania's external debt stock stood at USD 36.78 billion at end-September 2026. The central government owes 83.4%, but private-sector debt grew 14.2% in a year. Balance of payments and budget support is the largest use of funds (23.2%), followed by transport and telecommunications (21.0%). The US dollar accounts for 65.3% of disbursed debt, the euro 18.1% and the yuan 6.7%. This page analyses the stock by borrower, by use of funds and by currency, using the BoT Monthly Economic Review, October 2026 (Tables 2.6.1, 2.6.3, 2.6.4 and A10).
📅 Period: Sep 2025 – Sep 2026 · 🏛️ TICGL / TERI Economic Research Division · Source: BoT Monthly Economic Review, October 2026; Ministry of Finance. Growth rates, shares in USD terms and sensitivities are TICGL/TERI arithmetic.
External debt stock
USD 36.78B +6.6% y/y
Central government
83.4% down from 84.9%
Private sector
16.6% up from 15.1%
US dollar share
65.3% Sep-25: 65.9%
Scope
Prepared by TERI for research and strategic-information purposes; not investment, legal, tax or financial advice. "Debt stock" is disbursed outstanding debt (DOD) plus interest arrears (USD 36,784.2M = 36,454.3 + 329.9). Use-of-funds and currency splits are of DOD (USD 36,454.3M). Sep-26 data are provisional.
00 — Overview & VerdictA Government-Led, Dollar-Based Debt Funding Budgets and Infrastructure, With a Growing Private Share
Borrower: the central government owes USD 30,695.7M (83.4%), but its share is falling as private-sector debt rose from USD 5,218.5M to USD 6,088.5M (+16.7%). Private borrowers also hold 75% of interest arrears (USD 249.3M of 329.9M).
Use of funds: 23.2% supports the balance of payments and budget; 38.6% finances infrastructure (transport and telecommunications 21.0%, energy and mining 12.8%, real estate and construction 4.8%); social welfare and education take 19.3%. The fastest growth was in energy and mining (+USD 622M), BoP support (+USD 469M) and finance (+USD 342M).
Currency: every dollar of the debt is foreign-currency, 65.3% in USD. Euro debt grew fastest among the majors in USD terms (+8.2%), so a weaker shilling and a stronger euro both raise the shilling burden.
Central govt DOD
30,615.1
USD M; +4.8% y/y
Private DOD
5,839.2
USD M; +14.2% y/y
BoP & budget support
8,441.6
USD M; 23.2% of DOD
Euro + yuan debt
9,031.0
USD M; 24.8% of DOD
Disbursed Debt by Borrower
USD million, end of month. Source: BoT, Table A10
Use of Funds, Sep-26
% of disbursed outstanding debt. Source: BoT, Table 2.6.3
01 — By BorrowerGovernment Still Dominates, but the Private Sector Is Borrowing Faster
Monthly Disbursements by Borrower
USD million. Central government disbursements peaked in Jun–Jul 2026. Source: BoT, Table A10
Interest Arrears by Borrower
USD million. Private arrears rose 141% in a year. Source: BoT, Table 2.6.1
USD million
Sep-25
Share
Aug-26
Sep-26
Share
Central government
29,290.9
84.9%
30,779.4
30,695.7
83.4%
o/w disbursed outstanding debt
29,212.2
84.6%
30,698.7
30,615.1
83.2%
o/w interest arrears
78.7
0.2%
80.7
80.6
0.2%
Private sector
5,218.5
15.1%
6,068.8
6,088.5
16.6%
o/w disbursed outstanding debt
5,115.0
14.8%
5,838.1
5,839.2
15.9%
o/w interest arrears
103.6
0.3%
230.6
249.3
0.7%
Public corporations
0.6
0.0%
0.0
0.0
0.0%
External debt stock
34,510.1
100%
36,848.2
36,784.2
100%
Table 1.1. Source: BoT, Table 2.6.1. TANESCO, ATCL, TRC, TPA, TFC and DAWASA have no outstanding external debt.
Twelve-month disbursements: about USD 4,172M, of which central government USD 3,001.7M (71.9%) and private sector USD 1,170.3M (28.1%), above the private share of the stock (16.6%).
Flows vs stock: net flows after principal repayment were about USD 2,257M against a DOD increase of USD 2,126.5M; the difference (−USD 130M) reflects valuation and other adjustments (TICGL calc.).
Public corporations carry no direct external debt, so state-enterprise projects are funded through the central government balance sheet. Private borrowing is slowing (USD 8.2M in September) while its arrears are rising, a credit-quality signal worth tracking.
02 — By Use of FundsBudget Support and Infrastructure Take Over 60% of the Stock
The mix is shifting from budget and transport support towards productive sectors: energy and mining, agriculture, industries and finance grew faster than the stock (+6.2%), while tourism, construction and "other" shrank. BoP and budget support remains the single largest claim and carries no direct revenue stream.
03 — By CurrencyA Dollar Core, a Growing Euro and Yuan Share
Debt by Currency
USD million equivalents, end of month. Source: BoT, Table A10
% change in USD-equivalent value. Total +6.2%. Source: BoT, Table A10; TICGL/TERI calc.
Currency
Sep-25 %
Aug-26 %
Sep-26 %
Sep-25 USD M
Sep-26 USD M
Growth
United States dollar
65.9
65.0
65.3
22,619.2
23,788.8
+5.2%
Euro
17.7
18.3
18.1
6,080.3
6,580.8
+8.2%
Chinese yuan
6.5
6.7
6.7
2,224.1
2,450.2
+10.2%
Other
9.9
9.9
10.0
3,404.3
3,634.5
+6.8%
Total
100.0
100.0
100.0
34,327.8
36,454.3
+6.2%
Table 3.1. Source: BoT, Tables 2.6.4 and A10; growth TICGL calc. Non-USD balances are reported in USD equivalents, so exchange-rate moves between currencies are embedded in them.
Reading
USD-denominated debt matches the currency of most export earnings (gold, tourism) but euro and yuan debt (24.8%) adds cross-currency risk. The USD share slipped 0.6pp in a year as euro and yuan balances grew faster.
04 — Risk & CalculatorWhat a Currency Move Does to the Debt
Shilling risk: with 100% of external debt in foreign currency, each 1% depreciation adds about TZS 0.96 trillion to DOD (USD 36,454.3M × TZS 2,642.3).
Cross-currency risk: a 10% rise of the euro and yuan against the dollar would add about USD 903M to the debt.
Borrower risk: rising private arrears (USD 249.3M) are a contingent exposure if private debt is guaranteed or systemic.
Mitigants: concessional multilateral lenders (59.5% of the stock), reserves of USD 6.03B (4.3 months), and gold export earnings.
Currency shock calculator
Base: Sep-26 disbursed debt by currency (USD equivalents) and TZS 2,642.3 per USD. "Other" currencies held constant.
Debt in USD, M
36,454
Added USD, M
0
Debt in TZS, tn
101.1
Added TZS, tn
4.82
Bottom line
Tanzania's external debt is concentrated in one borrower (the central government), two currencies (USD and euro) and budget-and-infrastructure uses. Priorities: keep new borrowing concessional and project-linked, monitor private-sector arrears, and match currency exposure to export earnings.
How TICGL and TERI can help
TICGL/TERI supports debt-sustainability and FX-risk analysis, PPP structuring and bankable project preparation to reduce reliance on sovereign borrowing. Contact economist@ticgl.com.
Source. Bank of Tanzania, Monthly Economic Review, October 2026 (Tables 2.6.1, 2.6.3, 2.6.4, A10) with Ministry of Finance data. Calculations. Growth, USD-equivalent shares, 12-month disbursement sums, net flows and sensitivities are TICGL/TERI arithmetic. Table 2.6.1 shows the stock including interest arrears; Tables 2.6.3–2.6.4 and A10 use DOD. Aug-26 is revised (r) and Sep-26 provisional (p). The "other" use-of-funds category and "other" currencies are BoT residuals.
06 — Quick AnswersFrequently Asked Questions
How large is Tanzania's external debt?
USD 36,784.2 million at end-September 2026: disbursed outstanding debt of USD 36,454.3 million plus USD 329.9 million of interest arrears.
Who owes Tanzania's external debt?
The central government owes USD 30,695.7 million (83.4%) and the private sector USD 6,088.5 million (16.6%). Public corporations have no external debt.
What is the currency composition of Tanzania's external debt?
US dollar 65.3%, euro 18.1%, Chinese yuan 6.7% and other currencies 10.0% of disbursed outstanding debt.
What was external debt used for?
Balance of payments and budget support 23.2%, transport and telecommunications 21.0%, social welfare and education 19.3%, energy and mining 12.8%, and other sectors the remaining 23.7%.
07 — Explore MoreTICGL Economic: Related Insights & Tools
Deni la nje la Tanzania, Septemba 2026: deni la nje ni USD milioni 36,784.2 (ongezeko la asilimia 6.6 kwa mwaka); deni lililotolewa na linalosubiri kulipwa (DOD) ni USD milioni 36,454.3.
Kwa mkopaji: Serikali Kuu inadaiwa USD milioni 30,695.7 (asilimia 83.4, ilikuwa 84.9); sekta binafsi USD milioni 6,088.5 (asilimia 16.6), ikiongezeka asilimia 16.7 kwa mwaka. Mashirika ya umma hayana deni la nje moja kwa moja. Malimbikizo ya riba ya sekta binafsi yamepanda hadi USD milioni 249.3.
Kwa matumizi ya fedha: msaada wa urari wa malipo na bajeti asilimia 23.2; usafirishaji na mawasiliano 21.0; ustawi wa jamii na elimu 19.3; nishati na madini 12.8; kilimo 5.5. Nishati na madini iliongezeka zaidi (USD milioni 622).
Kwa sarafu: dola ya Marekani asilimia 65.3, euro 18.1, yuan ya China 6.7 na nyingine 10.0. Deni lote ni la fedha za kigeni, kwa hiyo kushuka kwa thamani ya shilingi kunaongeza mzigo wake; kushuka kwa asilimia 1 kunaongeza takriban TZS trilioni 0.96.
Mapendekezo: kuendelea kukopa kwa masharti nafuu na kwa miradi mahususi, kufuatilia malimbikizo ya sekta binafsi, na kulinganisha sarafu za madeni na mapato ya mauzo ya nje.
Tanzania Government Revenue and Expenditure, July 2026: Revenue +9.5% Above Target | TICGL
TICGL Home / Economic Insights / Government Revenue and Expenditure, July 2026 | TICGL/TERI Public Finance Research, 30 October 2026
TICGL/TERI Economic ResearchPublic FinanceBoT Monthly Economic Review, Oct 2026
Tanzania's Budget Opens FY2026/27 With Revenue Above Target, but Interest Costs Crowd Out Development Spending
In July 2026, the first month of FY2026/27, total revenue reached TZS 3,502.2 billion, 9.5% above target, led by taxes on imports and local goods and services. Spending was TZS 3,572.5 billion, but its composition shifted: interest payments ran 33.7% above plan while development spending fell 7.4% below plan and 51.5% below July 2025. This page analyses central government revenue and expenditure, the balance and its financing, and the fiscal trend since 2018/19, using the BoT Monthly Economic Review, October 2026 (Tanzania Mainland, cheques-issued basis).
📅 Period: July 2026 (FY2026/27 budget), FY2018/19–2025/26 ratios · 🏛️ TICGL / TERI Economic Research Division · Source: BoT Monthly Economic Review, October 2026 (Tables A1, A2; Charts 2.5.1, 2.5.2, 2.6.2); Ministry of Finance. Variances, shares and run-rates are TICGL/TERI arithmetic.
Total revenue, Jul-26
TZS 3.50tn +9.5% vs plan
Total expenditure
TZS 3.57tn +5.8% vs plan
Interest payments
TZS 565bn +33.7% vs plan
Development spending
TZS 793bn −7.4% vs plan
Scope
Prepared by TERI for research and strategic-information purposes; not investment, legal, tax or financial advice. "Estimate" is the July 2026 monthly estimate in BoT Table A2; "budget" is the FY2026/27 annual budget. One month is a small and seasonal sample, so run-rates are illustrative. Actual 2026 figures are provisional.
Revenue beat the estimate by TZS 304.8 billion (9.5%). Central government revenue was TZS 3,354.9 billion (95.8% of the total). Taxes on imports (+14.0% vs estimate) and on local goods and services (+40.7%) more than offset income tax, which fell 5.3% short.
Spending grew but its quality weakened. Recurrent spending was 10.3% above estimate, driven by interest (+33.7%; domestic interest nearly doubled) and other goods and services (+24.5%). Wages (−7.2%) and development (−7.4%) came in below plan; development was less than half of July 2025.
The surplus is mostly financing and timing. The balance after grants was only TZS 5.4 billion; the overall surplus of TZS 486.2 billion reflects cash adjustments of TZS 476.2 billion, and program loans of TZS 1,164.1 billion allowed repayment of TZS 1,864.5 billion of bank debt.
% difference between actual and July estimate. Source: BoT, Table A2; TICGL/TERI calc.
July Collections as % of FY2026/27 Budget
%. An even pace would be 8.3% a month. Source: BoT, Table A2; TICGL/TERI calc.
TZS billion
Jul-25
Estimate
Jul-26
vs est.
y/y
Annual budget
Taxes on imports
958.8
1,020.5
1,163.4
+14.0%
+21.3%
13,473.7
Income taxes
795.2
910.6
862.6
−5.3%
+8.5%
14,475.7
Taxes on local goods and services
446.1
453.7
638.2
+40.7%
+43.1%
6,826.9
Other taxes
145.7
189.8
212.8
+12.1%
+46.1%
2,470.1
Tax revenue
2,345.8
2,574.5
2,877.0
+11.7%
+22.6%
37,246.4
Non-tax revenue
431.8
480.2
477.9
−0.5%
+10.7%
7,015.6
LGA own sources
n/a
143.7
147.3
+2.5%
n/a
1,966.2
Grants
181.6
103.5
75.7
−26.8%
−58.3%
563.1
Table 1.1. Source: BoT, Table A2 and Chart 2.5.1; July 2025 tax revenue is the sum of its four components (TICGL calc.). The BoT text states tax revenue exceeded target by 9.8%; Table A2 implies +11.7% (9.8% matches central government revenue).
Reading
Growth leans on trade and consumption taxes: imports plus local goods and services supplied 62.6% of tax revenue (1,801.6 of 2,877.0). Income tax, the most stable base, grew 8.5% y/y but undershot its estimate. Grants have shrunk to 2% of revenue plus grants, reducing external cushions.
%. An even pace would be 8.3%. Source: BoT, Table A2; TICGL/TERI calc.
TZS billion
Jul-25
Estimate
Jul-26
vs est.
Share of spending
Wages and salaries
1,066.3
1,254.9
1,164.4
−7.2%
32.6%
Interest payments
378.4
422.5
564.9
+33.7%
15.8%
o/w domestic
n/a
192.2
383.8
+99.7%
10.7%
o/w foreign
n/a
230.3
181.1
−21.4%
5.1%
Other goods, services, transfers
927.0
843.6
1,050.2
+24.5%
29.4%
Development and net lending
1,634.4
855.9
792.9
−7.4%
22.2%
o/w local
n/a
519.3
521.0
+0.3%
14.6%
o/w foreign
n/a
336.7
271.9
−19.2%
7.6%
Total expenditure
n/a
3,376.9
3,572.5
+5.8%
100%
Table 2.1. Source: BoT, Table A2 and Chart 2.5.2 (July 2025 sub-items not published); shares and variances TICGL calc. July 2025 total is not shown because the chart omits some items.
Reading
Domestic interest took 9.5% of its annual budget (TZS 4,030.3bn) in one month, a sign of heavy domestic debt service (domestic debt TZS 41.1tn). Development spending fell 51.5% y/y and foreign-financed projects ran 19.2% below plan, while locally funded projects stayed on plan.
03 — Balance & FinancingA Cash Surplus Built on Program Loans and Adjustments
Fiscal Balances, July
TZS billion: before grants, after grants, overall. Source: BoT, Table A2
Financing Mix, July
TZS billion. Net foreign financing vs net domestic financing. Source: BoT, Table A2
Government Securities Issued for Financing
TZS billion per month: Treasury bills and bonds, Sep-25 to Sep-26. Source: BoT, Chart 2.6.2
TZS billion
Budget
Estimate
Actual
Balance after grants
−7,707.3
−75.1
5.4
Adjustments to cash and other items
0.0
0.0
476.2
Overall balance
−7,707.3
−75.1
486.2
Foreign loans (gross)
8,985.2
233.2
1,360.3
o/w program loans
1,787.7
0.0
1,164.1
o/w project loans
7,141.0
233.2
196.2
Foreign amortization
−4,550.2
−81.8
−265.5
Domestic financing (net)
3,272.3
−76.3
−1,581.0
o/w bank borrowing
2,056.4
−63.7
−1,864.5
o/w non-bank (net)
1,216.0
−12.6
283.5
Table 3.1. Source: BoT, Table A2. Negative financing means repayment or build-up of deposits.
Reading
Program loans (TZS 1,164.1bn, 65% of the annual program-loan budget) arrived in July and were used to repay bank debt (TZS 1,864.5bn), easing domestic liquidity but front-loading external borrowing. The FY2026/27 budget deficit after grants is TZS 7.7tn, financed 58% by foreign sources (TZS 4.4tn net).
04 — Outlook & CalculatorWhat the First Month Signals for FY2026/27
Revenue: the budget requires total revenue of TZS 46.2tn (17.2% of GDP in 2025/26 vs 13.8% in 2018/19). A month at 3.5tn annualises to about 42.0tn, below budget, so seasonal strength must persist.
Interest: domestic interest and rising domestic debt (TZS 41.1tn) are the main spending risk; policy rates at 6.25% add to bill costs.
Development: 4.1% of the annual development budget was spent in July; foreign-financed projects need project-loan disbursements (only 2.7% of the annual budget so far).
Offsets: robust import taxes, gold exports, and foreign access to bonds (July 2026 reform) may widen the financing base.
Zanzibar, September 2026
TZS billion
Actual
Note
Resource envelope
210.4
92.8% of monthly target
Domestic revenue
200.9
92.9% of target; tax 173.7 (91.6%)
Non-tax revenue
27.3
2.4% above target
Expenditure
494.5
Development 355.9 (72%), 77.8% domestically financed
Table 4.1. Source: BoT, Section 3.2 (Ministry of Finance and Planning, Zanzibar).
Budget run-rate calculator
Defaults: central government revenue, July 2026 (one month), against the FY2026/27 budget. Illustrative only, because monthly flows are seasonal.
Share of budget
7.6%
Pace needed
8.3%
Annualised, TZS bn
40,259
Gap to budget, TZS bn
−4,003
Bottom line
Collections are strong but trade-tax dependent, and spending is shifting toward debt service. Priorities: broaden income and local taxes, contain domestic interest through longer-tenor, lower-cost financing, and protect foreign-financed development disbursements.
How TICGL and TERI can help
TICGL/TERI supports PPP structuring, fiscal-risk and value-for-money analysis, and revenue and budget modelling. Contact economist@ticgl.com.
Source. Bank of Tanzania, Monthly Economic Review, October 2026 (Table A2 Central Government Operations, cheques issued, Tanzania Mainland; Table A1; Charts 2.5.1, 2.5.2, 2.6.2; Section 3.2 for Zanzibar). Calculations. Variances, shares of budget, run-rates and ratios are TICGL/TERI arithmetic. Table A2 covers July 2026 only; "Estimate" is the monthly estimate. Annualising one month (×12) ignores seasonality and is for illustration. Chart 2.5.2's July 2025 actuals are used where Table A2 has no prior-year column. Actual 2026 data are provisional. Total expenditure excludes amortization and expenditure float.
06 — Quick AnswersFrequently Asked Questions
How much revenue did Tanzania collect in July 2026?
Total revenue including local government was TZS 3,502.2 billion, 9.5% above the TZS 3,198.4 billion estimate. Central government revenue was TZS 3,354.9 billion, 95.8% of the total.
How much did the government spend in July 2026?
Total expenditure was TZS 3,572.5 billion: recurrent TZS 2,779.6 billion and development TZS 792.9 billion.
Why is interest spending a concern?
Interest payments were TZS 564.9 billion, 33.7% above plan and 49% above July 2025. Domestic interest alone, TZS 383.8 billion, was nearly double its estimate.
Did Tanzania run a deficit in July 2026?
No. Before grants the balance was a deficit of TZS 70.3 billion, after grants a surplus of TZS 5.4 billion, and the overall balance a surplus of TZS 486.2 billion after cash adjustments of TZS 476.2 billion.
07 — Explore MoreTICGL Economic: Related Insights & Tools
Mapato na matumizi ya Serikali Kuu, Julai 2026 (mwezi wa kwanza wa mwaka wa fedha 2026/27): mapato yamevuka lengo, lakini matumizi yanaelekea zaidi kwenye riba.
Mapato: jumla ya mapato TZS bilioni 3,502.2, juu ya lengo kwa asilimia 9.5. Mapato ya Serikali Kuu ni TZS bilioni 3,354.9 (asilimia 95.8). Kodi za bidhaa za nje (+14.0%) na bidhaa na huduma za ndani (+40.7%) zilichangia zaidi; kodi ya mapato ilikuwa chini ya lengo kwa asilimia 5.3. Misaada ilishuka hadi TZS bilioni 75.7.
Matumizi: jumla TZS bilioni 3,572.5; matumizi ya kawaida bilioni 2,779.6 na ya maendeleo bilioni 792.9 (chini ya lengo kwa asilimia 7.4 na chini ya Julai 2025 kwa asilimia 51.5). Malipo ya riba yalikuwa bilioni 564.9, juu ya mpango kwa asilimia 33.7; riba ya ndani karibu maradufu.
Urari: upungufu kabla ya misaada bilioni 70.3; ziada ya jumla bilioni 486.2 inatokana zaidi na marekebisho ya fedha taslimu (bilioni 476.2) na mikopo ya programu (bilioni 1,164.1), iliyotumika kulipa madeni ya benki (bilioni 1,864.5).
Mapendekezo: kupanua wigo wa kodi ya mapato na ya ndani, kudhibiti gharama za riba kwa kukopa kwa muda mrefu na kwa gharama nafuu, na kulinda utoaji wa fedha za miradi ya maendeleo.
Tanzania's Lending and Deposit Interest Rates: Why Borrowers Pay 15.5% While Savers Earn 3–9%
The overall lending rate rose to 15.54% in September 2026 and the overall time deposit rate to 9.02%, after the Central Bank Rate (CBR) was lifted to 6.25%. Yet private credit grew 34.2%. This page tracks lending and deposit rates by tenor and currency, the spread between them, how they follow policy and government securities yields, and what they mean for borrowers, savers and banks, using the BoT Monthly Economic Review, October 2026 (rates data Sep 2025 – Sep 2026).
📅 Period: Sep 2025 – Sep 2026 · 🏛️ TICGL / TERI Economic Research Division · Source: BoT Monthly Economic Review, October 2026 (Tables 2.2.2, 2.3.1, A1, A4); NBS. Spreads, real rates and loan costs are TICGL/TERI arithmetic.
Overall lending rate
15.54% +0.49pp m/m
Overall time deposit rate
9.02% +0.24pp m/m
Central Bank Rate
6.25% +0.50pp
Private credit growth
34.2% y/y
Scope
Prepared by TERI for research and strategic-information purposes; not investment, legal, tax or financial advice. Rates are BoT bank-survey averages for domestic currency unless labelled foreign currency. "pp" = percentage points.
00 — Overview & VerdictRates Are Sticky and High: Lending Barely Responds to Policy, Deposits Are Catching Up
Lending rates are high and slow-moving. The overall lending rate was 15.18% in September 2025 and 15.54% a year later (+0.36pp), despite a 0.50pp rise in the policy rate. Negotiated rates for prime borrowers fell 0.81pp to 12.03%.
Deposit rates rose faster. Overall time deposits climbed from 8.50% to 9.02% (+0.53pp), but savings accounts still pay only 2.95%, below the 4.3% inflation rate.
Credit is not rate-constrained. Private credit expanded 34.2%, led by transport and communication (+78.3%), trade (+52.5%) and agriculture (+41.9%). Banks also hold more government securities (TZS 12.1 trillion, +38.2% y/y), earning 4.85% on bills and 9.5–11.5% on bonds.
Table 0.1. Source: BoT, Table A4 (Table 2.3.1 text gives the overall time deposit rate as 9.02%; Table A4 shows 9.03%). Changes are TICGL calc.
Tenor matters: 6-month deposits pay the most (10.47%); 24-month deposits pay 8.81%.
Foreign currency is cheaper: FX lending 9.17%, FX time deposits 4.14%.
September jump: lending rates in the 2–3 and 3–5 year bands rose about 1pp in one month.
01 — Lending RatesWhat Borrowers Pay, by Tenor, Type and Currency
Lending Rates by Maturity
%, Sep-25 to Sep-26. Medium-term (1–2 years) loans are the most expensive. Source: BoT, Table A4
Standard vs Negotiated Lending Rate
%. Prime borrowers pay about 3.5pp less. Source: BoT, Table A4
Lending Rate by Tenor: Sep-25 vs Sep-26
%. Source: BoT, Table A4
Lending rate (%)
Sep-25
Jun-26
Aug-26
Sep-26
Short-term (up to 1 year)
15.52
15.38
15.31
15.36
Medium-term (1–2 years)
16.26
17.10
16.53
16.88
Medium-term (2–3 years)
15.19
15.19
15.02
16.02
Long-term (3–5 years)
14.26
14.38
14.44
15.14
Term loans (over 5 years)
14.66
14.03
13.93
14.31
Foreign currency, overall
8.43
9.03
8.96
9.17
Table 1.1. Source: BoT, Table A4.
Reading
Long-term and term loans (over 5 years) are cheaper than short-term loans, a flat-to-inverted pattern that rewards long projects, but the September repricing shows banks passing the CBR increase into 2–5 year loans first. Long-term lending also fell from 17.4% (2018) to 14.4% (2025) on an annual basis.
02 — Deposit Rates & SpreadWhat Savers Earn, and Who Captures the Margin
Deposit Rates by Type
%. Negotiated (large) deposits pay far more than savings. Source: BoT, Table A4
Time Deposit Rates by Term
%. Sep-25 vs Sep-26. Source: BoT, Table A4
Long-Term Lending vs 12-Month Deposit Rate, 2018–2025
%, annual averages. The gap narrowed from 8.6pp to 4.8pp as deposit rates rose. Source: BoT, Table A1; TICGL/TERI calc.
Deposit rate (%)
Sep-25
Aug-26
Sep-26
Real rate (4.3% inflation)
Savings
2.92
2.77
2.95
−1.35pp
Overall time deposits
8.50
8.78
9.03
+4.7pp
12 months
9.84
9.36
9.59
+5.3pp
Negotiated
11.05
11.06
11.00
+6.7pp
Foreign currency time deposits
3.94
4.12
4.14
n/a
Table 2.1. Source: BoT, Table A4; real rates TICGL calc. (nominal less headline inflation 4.3%).
Reading
The short-term spread (lending less deposit, BoT measure) narrowed from 5.95pp to 5.78pp in September, but the overall lending-to-time-deposit gap is 6.52pp and the gap to savings is 12.6pp. Small savers carry negative real returns while negotiated depositors earn about 6.7%.
03 — Policy & CreditTransmission from the CBR and Government Securities to Bank Rates
Policy, Interbank and T-Bill Rates vs Lending Rate
% of outstanding credit, select activities. Source: BoT, Chart 2.2.6
Credit and money
Sep-25
Sep-26
Private credit stock (TZS bn)
41,999.9
56,359.4
Private credit growth, y/y (%)
16.1
34.2
M3 growth, y/y (%)
20.4
25.9
Securities held by banks (TZS bn)
8,723.1
12,056.9
Reverse repo transactions (TZS bn)
n/a
2,624.5
Table 3.1. Source: BoT, Tables 2.2.1 and text; securities held by banks +38.2% y/y.
Reading
The CBR rose 1.46pp over the year but bank lending rates moved 0.36pp: the policy rate sets a floor, while the 15% lending band reflects credit risk, funding costs and ample liquidity (reverse repo demand fell). The September bump in 2–5 year loan rates suggests delayed pass-through.
04 — Outlook & CalculatorWhat to Expect and What It Costs
Upward pressure: BoT expects inflation to stay elevated (oil at USD 102.3, El Niño rains) and signals a tighter stance if second-round effects persist. The CBR is reviewed quarterly.
Offsets: ample liquidity, surplus 2025/26 food harvest, and the opening of government securities to foreign investors (July 2026) could lower yields and funding costs over time.
Credit quality: rapid growth in transport, trade and mining credit warrants monitoring of non-performing loans (not covered in the review).
For borrowers: negotiated rates around 12% show that credit quality and collateral can cut costs by about 3.5pp.
Loan cost calculator
Defaults: TZS 100 million, overall lending rate vs negotiated rate (Sep-26), 5 years, monthly repayment (annuity).
Monthly payment, TZS M
2.41
Total interest, TZS M
44.4
Interest at compare rate
33.6
Extra cost, TZS M
10.9
Bottom line
Rates are high but stable; the pressure point is pass-through and access. Priorities: widen access to negotiated-rate credit through credit guarantees and registries, lift real returns for small savers, and let long-term financing (over 5 years, 14.3%) fund infrastructure and PPP projects.
How TICGL and TERI can help
TICGL/TERI builds financial models, cost-of-capital and DSCR analysis, and bankable PPP project structures. Contact economist@ticgl.com.
Source. Bank of Tanzania, Monthly Economic Review, October 2026 (Tables 2.2.1, 2.2.2, 2.3.1, A1, A4; Chart 2.2.6; text on Treasury auctions and the Monetary Policy Committee's July 2026 decision). Calculations. Spreads, real rates (nominal less headline inflation of 4.3%), changes and loan costs are TICGL/TERI arithmetic. The "short-term spread" quoted by BoT differs from the overall lending-less-time-deposit gap used here. Annual averages in Table A1 differ from monthly survey rates. Data marked provisional may be revised. Credit shares cover select activities only.
06 — Quick AnswersFrequently Asked Questions
What is the lending rate in Tanzania in September 2026?
The overall lending rate was 15.54%, up from 15.05% in August. Negotiated rates charged to prime borrowers were 12.03%.
What are Tanzania's deposit rates?
The overall time deposit rate was 9.02%, the 12-month deposit rate 9.59%, the negotiated deposit rate 11.00% and the savings rate 2.95%.
What is the Central Bank Rate?
The CBR is 6.25% for the quarter ending September 2026, raised from 5.75% in July to contain second-round inflation pressures.
Why does credit grow fast despite high rates?
Private sector credit grew 34.2% year on year in September 2026, driven by transport and communication (78.3%), trade (52.5%) and agriculture (41.9%), as business demand for finance outran the cost of borrowing.
07 — Explore MoreTICGL Economic: Related Insights & Tools
Viwango vya riba Tanzania, Septemba 2026: riba ya mikopo ni ya juu na haibadiliki haraka, wakati riba za amana zinaongezeka polepole.
Mikopo: riba ya jumla ya mikopo ilipanda hadi asilimia 15.54 (Agosti 15.05); riba ya mikopo ya majadiliano kwa wakopaji wakubwa ni asilimia 12.03. Mikopo ya miaka 1–2 ni ghali zaidi (16.88%).
Amana: riba ya jumla ya amana za muda asilimia 9.02, amana za miezi 12 asilimia 9.59, amana za majadiliano asilimia 11.00, na akiba asilimia 2.95, chini ya mfumuko wa bei wa asilimia 4.3.
Sera: Kiwango cha Benki Kuu (CBR) kimepandishwa hadi asilimia 6.25. Hata hivyo, mikopo kwa sekta binafsi imekua asilimia 34.2, ikiongozwa na usafirishaji na mawasiliano (78.3%), biashara (52.5%) na kilimo (41.9%).
Mapendekezo: kupanua upatikanaji wa mikopo ya riba nafuu kupitia dhamana za mikopo, kuongeza faida halisi kwa wanaoweka akiba ndogo, na kuhimiza mikopo ya muda mrefu kwa miradi ya miundombinu na PPP.
Tanzania Shilling Stability vs National Debt: BoT October 2026 Review | TICGL
TICGL Home / Economic Insights / Shilling Stability vs National Debt | TICGL/TERI Macro Research, 30 October 2026
TICGL/TERI Economic ResearchExchange Rate & Public DebtBoT Monthly Economic Review, Oct 2026
Is the Tanzanian Shilling Stable While National Debt Climbs? What the Bank of Tanzania's October 2026 Review Shows
The shilling averaged TZS 2,654.91 per USD in September 2026, marginally stronger than August, yet 7.4% weaker than a year earlier. National debt reached USD 52.34 billion, and every dollar of external debt is owed in foreign currency. This page tests shilling stability against the debt stock, its currency and creditor mix, debt service, arrears, the external balance and the monetary stance, using the BoT Monthly Economic Review, October 2026 (data to September 2026).
📅 Data: Sep 2025 – Sep 2026 · 🏛️ TICGL / TERI Economic Research Division · Source: BoT Monthly Economic Review, October 2026; NBS; Ministry of Finance; TRA. Indexes, ratios and sums are TICGL/TERI arithmetic on published figures.
TZS per USD, Sep-26 avg
2,654.91 −7.4% y/y
National debt
USD 52.34B +4.9% y/y
External arrears
USD 1.20B +105% y/y
Reserves
USD 6.03B 4.3 months
Scope
Prepared by TERI for research and strategic-information purposes; not investment, legal, tax or financial advice. "y/y" is September 2026 against September 2025. Shilling depreciation is measured as the rise in TZS per USD.
00 — Overview & VerdictStable Month to Month, Weaker Over the Year, With Debt Risk Concentrated in Currency and Arrears
The shilling is stable in the short run but not in the 12-month view. It gained 0.08% on August (2,657.01 to 2,654.91), yet end-period TZS per USD rose from 2,442.8 (Sep-25) to 2,642.3 (Sep-26), about 8.2% weaker.
National debt grew modestly in dollars but faster in shillings. Total debt rose 4.9% to USD 52,344.2M; external debt (70.3%) rose 6.6% in USD but about 15.3% in TZS terms because of depreciation (TICGL calc.).
The weak spot is arrears, not the headline stock. External arrears doubled from USD 584M to USD 1,197M, led by private-sector commercial debt, while the current account deficit widened to USD 2.40B. Reserves of USD 6.03B (4.3 months) remain above the benchmark.
Stability is real but narrow: BoT sold only USD 7.2M in September on a USD 151.7M market.
Currency risk is total: external debt is USD 65.3%, euro 18.1%, yuan 6.7%, other 10.0%.
Debt is mostly official: multilateral 59.5%, commercial 34.5%; central government owes 83.4%.
Domestic debt is bank- and pension-held: banks 28.5% and pensions 27.4%; BoT 17.4%.
Oil is the shock: crude averaged USD 102.3 in September (USD 84.4 in August); petroleum imports rose 72.3%.
01 — Shilling StabilityHow Stable Is the Shilling, and What Defends It?
Foreign exchange conditions stayed calm in September, supported by commodity export and tourism inflows. The annual 7.4% depreciation largely reflects a base effect, as the shilling appreciated sharply in September 2025. Since then it has weakened steadily as oil prices rose from March 2026.
TZS per USD: annual average and end of period. Source: BoT, Table A1
Gross Reserves and Import Cover
USD million (bars) and months of imports (line). Sep-26: USD 6,031.9M, 4.3 months. Source: BoT, Table A1
Shilling defence indicator
Sep-26 reading
Average rate
TZS 2,654.91 per USD (Aug: 2,657.01)
Interbank FX turnover
USD 151.7M; BoT net sales USD 7.2M
Reserves
USD 6,031.9M, 4.3 months of projected imports, above national benchmark; supported by BoT gold purchases
Policy stance
CBR 6.25%; IBCM rate 6.67%; corridor 4.75–7.75%
Market reform
Electronic Matching System (May 2026); Government securities opened to foreign investors (17 Jul 2026)
Reading
Intervention was light, so month-to-month stability reflects genuine balance. But the eight-percent drift since September 2025 shows the shilling responds to the oil and import shock with a lag.
02 — National DebtSize, Currency, Creditors and Arrears
External Debt by Creditor (Disbursed)
USD million, Sep-25 to Sep-26. Source: BoT, Table A10
External Debt Arrears
USD million: principal and interest. Total USD 584.1M to 1,197.4M. Source: BoT, Table A10
Government Domestic Debt Stock
TZS billion, end-September (Aug-26: 40,899.5). Source: Ministry of Finance
Domestic Debt by Holder, Sep-26
TZS billion. Total 41,113.5. Source: BoT, Table 2.6.6
Tables 2.1–2.2. Source: BoT Monthly Economic Review, October 2026.
Reading
The stock is mostly concessional-leaning (multilateral 59.5%), but arrears nearly doubled, with commercial principal arrears at USD 549.6M (Sep-25: 184.5). Domestic debt grew 8.7% in TZS from September 2025, while its dollar value rose only about 1%.
03 — Shilling vs DebtThe Link: Depreciation Inflates the Shilling Cost of Debt
Index, September 2025 = 100
Exchange rate (TZS per USD), external debt in USD, and external debt in TZS (their product). Source: BoT; TICGL/TERI calc.
Monthly External Debt Service
USD million: principal and interest. Source: BoT, Table A10
External Sector, Year to September
USD million. Source: BoT, Table 2.7.1
Metric (TICGL/TERI calc.)
Value
Basis
External debt in TZS, Sep-25
TZS 84.3 tn
USD 34,510.1M × 2,442.8
External debt in TZS, Sep-26
TZS 97.2 tn (+15.3%)
USD 36,784.2M × 2,642.3
Of which exchange-rate effect
+8.2%
Rest is +6.6% new borrowing
External debt service, 12 months
USD 2,658M
Principal 1,915; interest 743
Debt service ÷ exports of goods and services
≈12.6%
Exports USD 21,065.1M
Depreciation sensitivity calculator
Defaults: Sep-26 external debt, 12-month debt service and end-period rate.
New rate
2,774.4
Added debt, TZS tn
4.86
Added service, TZS bn
351
Stock in TZS, tn
102.1
Reading
Because the stock is 100% foreign-currency, a further 5% depreciation would add about TZS 4.9 trillion to external debt and about TZS 350 billion a year to service. Reserve cover, concessional creditors and rising gold earnings (USD 5.8B, up from 4.4B) are the buffers.
04 — Macro & PolicyOil Shock, Tighter Policy and Fiscal Position
Oil Price vs Headline Inflation
Crude oil USD/barrel (bars) and inflation % (line). Source: World Bank; NBS
Policy: CBR raised to 6.25% (from 5.75%) to contain second-round pressure; private credit grew 34.2%, M3 25.9% y/y.
Domestic financing: TZS 356bn raised in September; domestic service TZS 556.4bn (interest 305.6bn); bond yields 5-yr 9.53%, 10-yr 10.69%, 15-yr 10.79%.
Risks: Middle East conflict, El Niño, fertilizer prices; offsets: gold, tourism (USD 4.57B) and transit freight.
IMF: global growth 3.1% for 2026; Sub-Saharan Africa 4.5%.
Bottom line
The shilling is stable enough for now, but debt sustainability depends on arrears clearance, export earnings and oil. Priorities: settle arrears, favour concessional and shilling-denominated funding (foreign access to bonds helps), and build reserves while gold prices are high.
Source. Bank of Tanzania, Monthly Economic Review, October 2026 (Tables 2.1–2.7, A1–A10), with NBS, Ministry of Finance, TRA and World Bank data as cited there. Calculations. Indexes, TZS values of debt, 12-month debt service, ratios and sensitivities are TICGL/TERI arithmetic. TZS value of debt uses end-period exchange rates from Table A10; domestic debt in USD is BoT's series. Section 2 uses disbursed outstanding debt (DOD) for creditor splits; the arrears chart is separate. The annual depreciation of 7.4% is BoT's average-rate measure; 8.2% is the end-period change. Provisional (p) and revised (r) data may change.
06 — Quick AnswersFrequently Asked Questions
Is the Tanzanian shilling stable in 2026?
Stable month to month, weaker over the year. It averaged TZS 2,654.91 per USD in September 2026 against 2,657.01 in August, but depreciated 7.4% year on year, partly a base effect.
How large is Tanzania's national debt?
USD 52,344.2 million at end-September 2026: external USD 36,784.2 million (70.3%) and domestic TZS 41,113.5 billion (about USD 15,560 million).
Why does a weaker shilling raise debt?
All external debt is in foreign currency (USD 65.3%, euro 18.1%, yuan 6.7%, other 10.0%), so each depreciation raises its cost in shillings and the shilling cost of servicing it.
Are Tanzania's external debt arrears rising?
Yes. Arrears rose from USD 584.1 million in September 2025 to USD 1,197.4 million in September 2026, led by private-sector commercial debt.
07 — Explore MoreTICGL Economic: Related Insights & Tools
Je, shilingi ya Tanzania ni imara wakati deni la taifa linaongezeka? Kulingana na Mapitio ya Kila Mwezi ya Uchumi ya BoT (Oktoba 2026): shilingi ni tulivu kwa mwezi, lakini dhaifu kwa mwaka.
Shilingi: wastani wa TZS 2,654.91 kwa USD Septemba 2026 (Agosti 2,657.01); imeshuka thamani kwa asilimia 7.4 kwa mwaka, kwa kiasi kikubwa kutokana na athari ya msingi. Akiba ya fedha za kigeni USD milioni 6,031.9, inatosha miezi 4.3 ya uagizaji.
Deni la taifa: USD milioni 52,344.2 (ongezeko la asilimia 4.9). Deni la nje USD milioni 36,784.2 (asilimia 70.3), lote kwa fedha za kigeni (USD asilimia 65.3, euro 18.1). Deni la ndani TZS bilioni 41,113.5.
Hatari kuu: thamani ya deni la nje kwa shilingi imepanda takriban asilimia 15.3, na malimbikizo ya deni la nje yameongezeka maradufu hadi USD milioni 1,197.4. Nakisi ya akaunti ya sasa ni USD milioni 2,397.5; bei ya mafuta ilifika USD 102.3 kwa pipa.
Sera: Kiwango cha Benki Kuu (CBR) 6.25%; mfumuko wa bei 4.3%, ndani ya lengo la 3–5%. Mapendekezo: kulipa malimbikizo, kupendelea mikopo nafuu na ya shilingi, na kuimarisha akiba wakati bei ya dhahabu iko juu.
TICGL/TERI - Macroeconomic Research, 30 October 2026
TICGL/TERI Economic ResearchShilling & InflationBoT Monthly Economic Review, October 2026
Tanzanian Shilling vs Inflation: Is the Price Anchor Holding as the Currency Weakens?
Headline inflation sits at 4.3%, inside the 3-5% target, yet the shilling has lost about 8% against the US dollar in a year, core inflation has nearly doubled from 2.2% to 4.1% and the Bank of Tanzania has raised its rate to 6.25%. This page reads the BoT Monthly Economic Review, October 2026 through one lens: how exchange-rate weakness, imported energy and monetary policy interact with domestic prices.
Headline inflation, Sep-26
4.3%
TZS per USD, Sep-26 (avg)
2,654.91
Core inflation, Sep-26
4.1%
Central Bank Rate
6.25%
Source: BoT Monthly Economic Review, October 2026 (NBS, Ministry of Finance, TRA data). Real rates, depreciation percentages and indexes are TICGL/TERI arithmetic on published figures.
Inflation is anchored, but no longer narrow. Headline inflation held at 4.3% in September 2026 (3.4% a year earlier), but the rise was in core prices (4.1%, up from 2.2%), transport (14.0%) and energy (7.8%), while food inflation fell from 7.0% to 3.9%.
The shilling is the transmission channel. It averaged TZS 2,654.91/USD, about 7.4% weaker year on year (8.2% end-period), roughly twice the inflation rate, as oil rose to USD 102.3 a barrel and the import bill swelled.
Policy tightened. The CBR rose to 6.25%; real policy rate is about +1.9 points. Credit (+34.2%) and M3 (+25.9%) are growing fast, a second reason to stay vigilant.
4.3%Headline inflation, target 3-5%
+8.2%TZS/USD, Sep-25 to Sep-26 (2,442.8 to 2,642.3)
USD 2.40BCurrent account deficit, year to Sep-26 (1.88B before)
Inflation vs the Shilling, Sep-2025 to Sep-2026
Headline and core inflation (%, left) and TZS per USD, end of month (right). Source: BoT; NBS; TICGL/TERI.
Test
Evidence
Reading
Anchor
4.3% inside 3-5%; below EAC ceiling 8%
Holding
Breadth
Core 2.2% to 4.1%; services 1.3% to 6.1%
Broadening
Currency
TZS -7.4% y/y (avg); BoT sold only USD 7.2M in Sep
Orderly depreciation
External
CA deficit +28%; reserves 4.3 months
Adequate, thinner
01 - INFLATIONWhat Is Driving Prices? Headline, Core, Food and Energy
Annual inflation was flat at 4.3% in August and September. Under the surface, the driver moved from food (2025) to energy, transport and services (2026).
Twelve-Month Inflation by Component
%. Source: BoT/NBS Table A9 (i)-(ii).
Contribution to Headline Inflation
Percentage points. Core: 1.6 to 3.1. Source: NBS; BoT.
Fuel Pass-Through: Oil vs Transport Inflation, 2026
Crude oil USD/barrel (bars) and transport inflation % (line). Source: World Bank; NBS.
Group (annual %)
Sep-25
Aug-26
Sep-26
Headline
3.4
4.3
4.3
Core
2.2
4.1
4.1
Food and non-alcoholic beverages
7.0
3.7
3.9
Transport
2.1
13.8
14.0
Energy, fuel and utilities
3.7
8.5
7.8
Services
1.3
5.9
6.1
Goods
4.7
3.5
3.4
Restaurants and accommodation
1.0
3.0
2.9
Table 1.1. Source: NBS and BoT, Table 2.1.1. Zanzibar headline inflation eased to 4.3% from 5.6% in August (target 5%).
ReadingSurplus food from the 2025/26 harvest is masking imported cost pressure. NFRA stocks of 478,160 tonnes are a buffer, but El Niño rains and Middle East energy risks remain.
02 - THE SHILLINGDepreciation Faster Than Inflation: History and Today
The shilling averaged TZS 2,654.91 per USD in September 2026 (2,657.01 in August), a marginal gain on the month. On an annual basis it is about 7.4% weaker, largely a base effect after a sharp appreciation in September 2025. Foreign exchange conditions were stable, with turnover of USD 151.7 million supported by gold, commodity and tourism inflows.
Index, Dec-25 = 100. TZS/USD rose 7.8% by September; consumer prices lagged. TICGL/TERI calc.
Year
Inflation %
Avg TZS/USD
End-period TZS/USD
CA balance (USD M)
2022
4.3
2,303.0
2,308.9
-5,482.2
2023
3.8
2,382.1
2,501.4
-2,960.6
2024
3.1
2,597.4
2,374.7
-2,379.8
2025
3.3
2,537.6
2,450.2
-2,049.4
Sep-2026
4.3
2,654.9
2,642.3
-2,397.5 (12m)
2023-24: a 9% average depreciation (2,382 to 2,597) came with inflation of only 3.1-3.8%, so pass-through was contained.
2026: depreciation coincides with an oil shock (Brent peak USD 120.4 in April), so both import prices and the exchange rate push in the same direction.
Foreign investors can now buy government securities without geographic limits (July 2026 amendment): a new source of FX inflows but also of volatility if capital reverses.
03 - POLICY & REAL RATESDid the BoT Tighten Enough?
The MPC raised the CBR to 6.25% for the quarter ending September 2026 from 5.75%, aiming to contain second-round effects from energy, fertilizer and transport costs. The 7-day interbank rate stayed within the 4.75-7.75% corridor, ending at 6.67% overall.
Real Rates (Nominal Rate minus 4.3% Inflation)
Percentage points, September 2026. TICGL/TERI calc. from BoT Tables 2.3.1 and A4.
Rate (Sep-26)
Nominal %
Real %
Central Bank Rate
6.25
+1.95
Overall T-bill yield
4.85
+0.55
10-year bond
10.69
+6.39
Overall lending rate
15.54
+11.24
12-month deposit rate
9.59
+5.29
Savings deposit rate
2.95
-1.35
ReadingPolicy is only mildly restrictive (+1.9 points) and bills yield barely above inflation, while bank lending real rates above 11% coexist with 34% credit growth. Policy transmission is happening through the exchange rate and liquidity, not price of credit.
04 - MONEY, CREDIT & EXTERNALDemand, Imports and the Currency Backstop
Money and Credit Growth, Sep-2026 (y/y)
%. Source: BoT Table 2.2.1.
External Sector, Year to September
USD million. Source: BoT Table 2.7.1.
Indicator (USD M)
2025
2026p
Change
Exports of goods and services
17,568.9
21,065.1
+19.9%
Imports of goods and services
17,848.9
22,134.2
+24.0%
Gold exports
4,431.2
5,834.5
+31.7%
Petroleum imports
2,213.1
3,813.6
+72.3%
Current account balance
-1,879.3
-2,397.5
+27.6%
Gross reserves
-
6,031.9
4.3 months
Fiscal: July revenue TZS 3,502.2B beat target by 9.5%; spending TZS 3,572.5B.
Debt: national debt USD 52,344.2M; external USD 36,784.2M (65.3% in USD, so depreciation raises debt service in shillings).
05 - OUTLOOK & ACTIONWhat to Watch and What to Do
Driver
Risk to shilling and prices
Indicator
Middle East energy
Higher fuel and fertilizer costs; wider CA deficit
Bottom lineThe inflation anchor is holding, but it now rests on food abundance. The shilling and energy, not food, will decide whether 4.3% stays inside the 3-5% band.
06 - SOURCESSources & Data Notes
Bank of Tanzania, Monthly Economic Review, October 2026: Tables 2.1.1, 2.2.1, 2.3.1, 2.7.1, A1, A4, A9, A10.
National Bureau of Statistics, Ministry of Finance, TRA, World Bank Pink Sheet as cited by BoT.
TICGL/TERI arithmetic: real rates (nominal minus 4.3%), depreciation (end-period 2,442.8 to 2,642.3 = +8.2%; Dec-25 to Sep-26 +7.8%), indexes. Data are provisional (p). BoT quotes 7.4% for average-rate depreciation. This page is research information, not financial advice.
07 - QUICK ANSWERSFrequently Asked Questions
What is Tanzania's inflation rate in September 2026?
Headline inflation was 4.3%, unchanged from August and inside the 3-5% target. Core was 4.1%, food 3.9% and energy 7.8%.
How much has the Tanzanian shilling depreciated?
It averaged TZS 2,654.91 per USD, about 7.4% weaker year on year; end-period it moved from 2,442.8 to 2,642.3 (about 8.2%).
What is the Bank of Tanzania Central Bank Rate?
6.25% for the quarter ending September 2026, up from 5.75%, to contain second-round inflation from energy, fertilizer and transport costs.
Is the current account deficit widening?
Yes, to USD 2,397.5 million in the year to September 2026 from USD 1,879.3 million; reserves of USD 6,031.9 million cover 4.3 months of imports.
08 - EXPLORE MORETICGL Economic: Related Insights & Tools
Related analysis
Is Tanzania's Economy Growing?
The growth backdrop behind prices and the shilling.
Je, shilingi ya Tanzania na mfumuko wa bei vinaelekea wapi? Kwa mujibu wa Mapitio ya Kila Mwezi ya Uchumi ya Benki Kuu (Oktoba 2026): mfumuko wa bei ulikuwa asilimia 4.3 Septemba 2026, ndani ya lengo la asilimia 3-5, lakini shilingi imedhoofika kwa takriban asilimia 7.4 (wastani) kwa mwaka, ikiuzwa wastani wa TZS 2,654.91 kwa dola.
Mfumuko wa msingi umepanda kutoka asilimia 2.2 hadi 4.1; usafirishaji asilimia 14.0, nishati asilimia 7.8; chakula kimeshuka hadi asilimia 3.9 kutokana na mavuno mazuri.
Sera: Kiwango cha Benki Kuu (CBR) kimepanda hadi asilimia 6.25 kutoka 5.75; mikopo kwa sekta binafsi imekua asilimia 34.2 na M3 asilimia 25.9.
Sekta ya nje: nakisi ya akaunti ya sasa imepanda hadi USD milioni 2,397.5; akiba ya fedha za kigeni ni USD milioni 6,031.9 (miezi 4.3 ya uagizaji).
Mtazamo: bei ya mafuta (USD 102.3 kwa pipa), mvua za El Niño na mtiririko wa mitaji vitaamua kama mfumuko utabaki ndani ya lengo. Wafanyabiashara wajikinge dhidi ya hatari ya sarafu.
TICGL/TERI - Financial Markets Research, 30 October 2026
TICGL/TERI Economic ResearchFinancial MarketsBoT Monthly Economic Review, October 2026
Tanzania's Government Securities and Interbank Cash Markets: Deep Demand, Falling Yields, Ample Liquidity
Treasury auctions in September 2026 were oversubscribed, yields sit 1.5 to 3 points below a year ago, domestic debt reached TZS 41.1 trillion and the interbank market traded TZS 4.8 trillion at 6.67%. This page reads the BoT Monthly Economic Review, October 2026 to show who funds the Government, at what price, and how liquidity moves between banks, as foreign investors gain access to shilling bonds.
Overall T-bill yield
4.85%
10-year bond yield
10.69%
Domestic debt stock
TZS 41.1T
Interbank rate (overall)
6.67%
Source: BoT Monthly Economic Review, October 2026 (Tables 2.6.5-2.6.6, A4, Charts 2.4.1-2.4.2, 2.6.1-2.6.2). Bid cover, real yields, spreads and growth rates are TICGL/TERI arithmetic.
00 - OVERVIEWExecutive Summary: A Liquid Market with Cheaper Government Funding
Demand is strong. Treasury bill auctions drew bids of TZS 1,205B against a TZS 678.3B tender (1.8x); bond auctions drew TZS 1,267.2B against TZS 535.8B (2.4x). The Government accepted TZS 654.6B of bills and TZS 489.7B of bonds.
Yields fell sharply over the year. The overall T-bill yield is 4.85% (6.03% in Sep-25); the 10-year bond is 10.69% (13.74%). But the 364-day bill has risen since March (5.80% to 6.38%) as the BoT tightened.
Debt is bond-heavy and bank/pension-funded. Bonds are 84.6% of the TZS 41,113.5B stock; commercial banks and pension funds hold 55.9%. The overdraft share fell from 13.2% to 10.4%.
The interbank market is calm. Overall rate 6.67% inside the 4.75-7.75% corridor; turnover TZS 4,791.7B; reverse repo demand fell to TZS 2,624.5B on ample liquidity.
1.8x / 2.4xBid cover: T-bills / bonds, Sep-26
+9.8%Domestic debt y/y (37,459.0 to 41,113.5)
TZS 4,791.7BInterbank turnover, up from 4,566.2B
Government Yields and the Interbank Rate, Sep-2025 to Sep-2026
%. Source: BoT Table A4.
Test
Evidence
Reading
Demand
Bid cover 1.8x bills, 2.4x bonds
Strong
Price
T-bill 6.03% to 4.85%; 10y 13.74% to 10.69%
Cheaper funding
Structure
Bonds 84.6% of debt; bills 4.6%
Long-dated
Liquidity
IBCM 6.67%; reverse repo down 14%
Ample, stable
01 - AUCTIONSPrimary Market: Who Bids, How Much Is Accepted
In September the BoT ran two Treasury bill auctions (combined tender TZS 678.3B) and three bond auctions: 5-year (TZS 145.6B), 10-year (TZS 182.9B) and 15-year (TZS 207.3B). Government raised TZS 356B (TZS 178B bonds, TZS 178B 364-day bills) against domestic debt service of TZS 556.4B (principal 250.8B, interest 305.6B).
Tender, Bids and Accepted, Sep-2026
TZS billion. Source: BoT Section 2.4.
Issuance for Financing, Sep-2025 to Sep-2026
TZS billion, T-bills and T-bonds. Source: BoT Chart 2.6.2.
Sep-2026
Tender (TZS B)
Bids (TZS B)
Accepted (TZS B)
Bid cover
Accepted / tender
Treasury bills
678.3
1,205.0
654.6
1.78x
96.5%
Treasury bonds
535.8
1,267.2
489.7
2.36x
91.4%
Table 1.1. Source: BoT; TICGL/TERI calc. Bond tender is the sum of the three auctions.
ReadingThe BoT rejected 46% of bill bids and 61% of bond bids, accepting only what it needed at acceptable prices. That discipline is why yields could fall while supply was heavy: bond issuance hit TZS 502.5B in July and 454.4B in August.
02 - YIELD CURVEA Curve That Has Shifted Down and Steepened
Between September 2025 and September 2026 the curve fell at almost every tenor, most at the short end (35-day bills from 6.20% to 2.41%) and in 10-15 year bonds (about 3 points). Yet 364-day bills rose, so the bill curve steepened.
Yield Curve: September 2025 vs September 2026
% by tenor. Source: BoT Table A4.
Real Yields (Nominal minus 4.3% Inflation)
Percentage points, Sep-26. TICGL/TERI calc.
Benchmark Yield Paths
% Sep-25 to Sep-26: 364-day, 5-year, 10-year. Source: BoT.
Tenor
Sep-25 %
Sep-26 %
Change (pp)
Real (pp)
35-day
6.20
2.41
-3.79
-1.89
91-day
6.81
3.40
-3.41
-0.90
364-day
5.99
6.38
+0.39
+2.08
5-year
12.48
9.53
-2.95
+5.23
10-year
13.74
10.69
-3.05
+6.39
15-year
13.91
10.79
-3.12
+6.49
25-year
13.19
11.48
-1.71
+7.18
ReadingShort bills pay less than inflation while the 10-year pays 6.4 points above it: a 5.8-point term spread over the overall T-bill. Banks and pension funds are locked into long paper; the BoT's 6.25% rate is the anchor for the short end. The 15-year yield rose in September while 5- and 10-year yields fell, a sign of demand concentrated in mid-tenors.
03 - DOMESTIC DEBT & INVESTORSStock, Instruments and Who Holds the Paper
The domestic debt stock reached TZS 41,113.5B at end-September 2026, a marginal rise from TZS 40,899.5B in August. Commercial banks and pension funds hold more than half.
Government Domestic Debt Stock, September of Each Year
TZS billion. Source: BoT Chart 2.6.1 (Ministry of Finance).
TZS billion, Sep-25 vs Sep-26. Source: BoT Table 2.6.6.
Holder (TZS B)
Sep-25
Sep-26
Share Sep-26
Growth
Commercial banks
10,752.0
11,703.1
28.5%
+8.8%
Pension funds
10,282.0
11,256.1
27.4%
+9.5%
Bank of Tanzania
6,750.9
7,163.8
17.4%
+6.1%
Insurance
1,825.1
2,030.1
4.9%
+11.2%
Others (incl. non-residents)
7,068.6
8,095.4
19.7%
+14.5%
Total
37,459.0
41,113.5
100%
+9.8%
T-bills are only 4.6% of the stock (TZS 1,896.4B, -7.9% y/y): refinancing risk is low but short-end market depth is thin.
Banks held TZS 12,056.9B of securities in September (+38.2% y/y) while private credit grew 34.2%: banks are funding both the Government and the private sector.
04 - INTERBANK CASH MARKETLiquidity Redistribution Inside the Policy Corridor
Total interbank transactions rose to TZS 4,791.7B in September from TZS 4,566.2B, with the 7-day tenor taking 62%. The overall rate stayed at 6.67%. The BoT's reverse repo auctions fell to TZS 2,624.5B from TZS 3,037.4B on elevated system liquidity. Policy rate corridor: 4.75% to 7.75% (Lombard rate 7.75%, repo and reverse repo 6.25%, discount rate 8.75%).
Interbank Rates by Tenor, Sep-2025 to Sep-2026
%. Source: BoT Table A4.
Rate Structure by Tenor, Sep-2026
%. Corridor 4.75-7.75%; 181 days and above at 12.00%.
Market Activity, Aug vs Sep 2026
TZS billion. Interbank turnover up 4.9%; reverse repo down 13.6%. Source: BoT.
Interbank rate (%)
Sep-25
Jun-26
Aug-26
Sep-26
Overnight
6.29
5.53
6.37
6.26
2 to 7 days
6.43
5.90
6.45
6.56
8 to 14 days
6.93
6.46
7.09
7.06
Overall
6.45
6.00
6.67
6.67
ReadingThe overall rate rose 0.67 points over the year as the repo rate moved from 4.79% to 6.25% in two steps, and it sits 0.42 points above the CBR. Rates fell to 6.00% in June, then repriced after the July hike. Ample reserve money (TZS 17,127.7B, +24.9%) keeps the market inside the band with BoT FX interventions at only USD 7.2M a month.
05 - FOREIGN ACCESS & OUTLOOKOpening Government Securities to the World
Government Notice No. 206 of 2026 (Foreign Exchange Amendment Regulations, 17 July 2026) removed geographic restrictions and the minimum holding period for Government securities, completing a gradual capital-account liberalisation.
SADC residents and diaspora added; holding period cut to six months
Jan 2025
Competitive Treasury bond auctions begin
May 2026
Electronic Matching System for the interbank FX market
Jul 2026
Government securities opened to all foreign investors
Aug 2026
Tanzania Sovereign Yield Curve launched
Expected gains: more auction competition and lower borrowing cost, deeper secondary market, better price discovery, FX inflows for reserves (USD 6,031.9M), eligibility for global bond indices.
Risks: exchange-rate exposure, reserve losses and higher yields if capital reverses abruptly. The shilling averaged TZS 2,654.91 per USD in September (-7.4% y/y).
Watch
Why it matters
Indicator
Next MPC decision
Inflation 4.3%, oil USD 102.3: bias is firm
CBR, corridor
Foreign participation
New demand but flight risk
Non-resident share ("others")
Bond supply
Heavy issuance could lift 15-year yields
Accepted vs tender
Bank liquidity
Credit +34.2% competes with securities
IBCM turnover, reverse repo
Bottom lineThe market is deep and cheaper to borrow in, but bond-heavy, bank-and-pension dominated and thin at the short end. Success of the foreign-access reform will depend on a stable shilling and predictable inflation.
06 - SOURCESSources & Data Notes
Bank of Tanzania, Monthly Economic Review, October 2026: Sections 2.4, 2.6; Tables 2.2.1, 2.6.5, 2.6.6, A3, A4; Charts 2.4.1, 2.4.2, 2.6.1, 2.6.2; boxed note on foreign access (GN 206 of 2026).
TICGL/TERI arithmetic: bid cover (bids/tender), acceptance ratios, real yields (nominal minus 4.3%), growth rates. Table 2.6.5 and 2.6.6 use the Sep-25 stock of TZS 37,459.0B (excluding liquidity papers); Chart 2.6.1 shows TZS 37,819.1B, so growth rates here use the table basis. Figures marked provisional by BoT. This page is research information, not investment advice.
07 - QUICK ANSWERSFrequently Asked Questions
What is the Treasury bill yield in Tanzania in September 2026?
Soko la dhamana za serikali na soko la fedha kati ya benki (interbank) linaendeleaje? Kwa mujibu wa Mapitio ya Kila Mwezi ya Uchumi ya Benki Kuu (Oktoba 2026), minada ya Septemba 2026 ilipata mahitaji makubwa: hati fungani za Hazina (T-bills) zilipokea zabuni za TZS bilioni 1,205 dhidi ya bilioni 678.3, na hatifungani (bonds) bilioni 1,267.2 dhidi ya bilioni 535.8.
Mavuno (yields): wastani wa T-bills ni asilimia 4.85 (6.03 mwaka jana); hatifungani za miaka 5, 10 na 15 ni asilimia 9.53, 10.69 na 10.79.
Deni la ndani: TZS bilioni 41,113.5, ongezeko la asilimia 9.8; hatifungani ni asilimia 84.6; benki za biashara na mifuko ya pensheni zinashikilia asilimia 55.9.
Soko la interbank: kiwango cha jumla asilimia 6.67 ndani ya ukanda wa asilimia 4.75-7.75; mauzo yalifikia TZS bilioni 4,791.7, na siku 7 zikiwa asilimia 62.
Wawekezaji wa kigeni: tangu 17 Julai 2026 dhamana za serikali zimefunguliwa kwa dunia nzima; faida ni ushindani na akiba ya fedha za kigeni, hatari ni kutoka kwa ghafla kwa mitaji.
TICGL/TERI - External Sector Research, 30 October 2026
TICGL/TERI Economic ResearchExternal SectorBoT Monthly Economic Review, October 2026
Tanzania's External Sector in 2026: A Wider Current Account Deficit, a Growing Services Surplus and a Shifting Mix of Receipts
The current account deficit widened 27.6% to USD 2,397.5 million in the year to September 2026 as goods imports outran exports. Services helped: receipts reached USD 8,620.2 million, payments only USD 3,448.1 million. Beneath that, the source of growth changed: transport earnings jumped 30% while travel (tourism) rose just 4%. This page reads Section 2.7 of the BoT Monthly Economic Review, October 2026, focusing on the current account, services receipts by category and services payments.
Current account (12m)
-USD 2,397.5M
Services receipts
USD 8,620.2M
Services payments
USD 3,448.1M
Reserves, Sep-26
4.3 months
Source: BoT Monthly Economic Review, October 2026 (TRA, banks, BoT computations; Table 2.7.1, Charts 2.7.2-2.7.5, Tables A5-A7). Shares, net balances, coverage ratios and growth contributions are TICGL/TERI arithmetic. "Year to September" = year ending September.
00 - OVERVIEWExecutive Summary: Services Soften the Blow of an Oil-Driven Goods Deficit
The deficit widened. The current account deficit rose to USD 2,397.5M from USD 1,879.3M as imports of goods and services grew 24.0% against 19.9% for exports. The goods deficit reached USD 6,241.2M (+35.8%); petroleum imports jumped 72.3% to USD 3,813.6M.
Services are the shock absorber. The services surplus rose 19.8% to USD 5,172.2M and covered about 83% of the goods deficit (47% in 2021).
But the engine changed. Of the USD 1,111.9M rise in service receipts, transport supplied 73% and travel only 16%. Travel receipts grew 4.1% to USD 4,565.8M; transport grew 30.3% to USD 3,478.7M on transit-trade freight.
Payments are contained. Service payments rose 8.0%, with freight up 25.8% offset by lower travel and other-services outflows. September alone showed a monthly current account surplus of USD 421.2M.
83%Services surplus as share of goods deficit (year to Sep-26)
+30.3% / +4.1%Transport vs travel receipts growth
USD 6,031.9MGross reserves, 4.3 months of imports
Current Account Components, Year to September
USD million. Source: BoT Table 2.7.1.
Test
Evidence
Reading
Balance
CA -USD 2,397.5M (+27.6% wider)
Deteriorating
Services cover
Surplus = 83% of goods deficit
Strong buffer
Mix
Transport 73% of receipts growth; travel 16%
Shifting
Buffer
Reserves USD 6.0B, 4.3 months
Adequate
01 - CURRENT ACCOUNTGoods Deficit, Services Surplus, Income Gaps
The external sector faces headwinds from Middle East tensions: import growth outpaced exports, though strong exports partly cushioned the deficit. The goods and services deficit widened to USD 1,069.0M from USD 280.4M; the primary income deficit (payments to non-residents) stayed near USD 2.1B and the secondary income surplus rose 60.4% to USD 761.4M on personal transfers.
Monthly Current Account Components
USD million. Sep-26 shows a surplus of USD 421.2M as exports hit USD 1,504.1M. Source: BoT Table 2.7.1.
Current Account Deficit and its Share of GDP
USD million (bars, calendar years; last bar year to Sep-26) and % of GDP (line). Source: BoT Table A5.
Exports vs Imports of Goods and Services
USD million, years to September, and balance (line). Source: BoT Table 2.7.1.
USD million
Yr to Sep-24
Yr to Sep-25
Yr to Sep-26p
Change
Goods account
-5,928.7
-4,596.3
-6,241.2
+35.8%
Services account
4,062.9
4,315.9
5,172.2
+19.8%
Goods and services
-1,865.8
-280.4
-1,069.0
wider
Primary income
-1,735.4
-2,073.6
-2,089.8
+0.8%
Secondary income
585.2
474.6
761.4
+60.4%
Current account
-3,016.0
-1,879.3
-2,397.5
+27.6%
ReadingThe deficit is still well below the 2022 peak (USD 5.5B, 7.1% of GDP), but 2026 reversed three years of improvement. Government-related secondary inflows fell 64.4% to USD 35.3M, so private transfers now carry that account.
02 - SERVICES RECEIPTSExports of Services by Category: Travel, Transport and Other
Service receipts rose 14.8% to USD 8,620.2M in the year to September 2026, driven by tourism and transport earnings. Tourism receipts reached USD 4,565.8M; transport receipts USD 3,478.7M on freight linked to transit trade. Monthly receipts were USD 1,017.5M in September, up from about USD 703.5M a year earlier on travel.
Service Receipts by Category
USD million, years to September. Source: BoT Chart 2.7.3.
Who Drove the 2026 Increase?
USD million added to receipts, 2025 to 2026 (total 1,111.9). TICGL/TERI calc.
Receipts (USD M)
2024
2025
2026p
Growth 2026
Share 2026
Travel (tourism)
3,792.1
4,387.6
4,565.8
+4.1%
53.0%
Transport
2,283.6
2,669.9
3,478.7
+30.3%
40.4%
Other services
591.4
450.8
575.7
+27.7%
6.7%
Total
6,667.1
7,508.3
8,620.2
+14.8%
100%
Table 2.1. Other services: construction, insurance, financial, telecommunications, computer and information, intellectual property charges, government, personal and other business services. Source: BoT; TICGL/TERI calc.
Travel was 56.9% of receipts in 2024 and 53.0% in 2026. Calendar-year travel earnings rose from USD 1,310.3M (2021) to USD 4,410.6M (2025), 3.4 times, so the 2026 slowdown comes after a very fast rebound.
Transport earnings are tied to transit trade and freight through Tanzanian corridors; they grew 30.3% as regional trade and port activity rose.
Services were 40.9% of exports of goods and services in 2026, down from 44.8% in 2024 as goods exports (gold) grew faster.
03 - SERVICES PAYMENTSImports of Services: Freight Dominates
Service payments rose 8.0% to USD 3,448.1M, largely on higher freight payments in line with the increased import bill. Monthly payments were USD 288.2M in September (USD 270.6M a year earlier), mainly freight.
Service Payments by Category
USD million, years to September. Source: BoT Chart 2.7.5.
Net Services by Category (Receipts minus Payments)
USD million. TICGL/TERI calc.
How Much of the Goods Deficit Do Services Cover?
%. Services balance divided by goods deficit; 2021-2025 calendar years, last point year to Sep-26. Source: BoT Tables A5, 2.7.1; TICGL/TERI calc.
Payments (USD M)
2024
2025
2026p
Growth 2026
Net 2026
Travel
450.6
687.8
672.9
-2.2%
+3,892.9
Transport (freight)
1,361.2
1,468.8
1,847.2
+25.8%
+1,631.5
Other services
792.4
1,035.8
928.0
-10.4%
-352.3
Total
2,604.2
3,192.4
3,448.1
+8.0%
+5,172.2
Freight payments of USD 1,706.6M (+29.4%) are 92% of transport payments and move with the goods import bill; transport receipts cover transport payments 1.9 times (1.7 times in 2024).
Travel receipts are 6.8 times travel payments: tourism is the largest net services earner (USD 3.9B). "Other services" is the only net outflow (USD 352M).
04 - GOODS TRADEGold and Manufactures Up, Oil and Industrial Supplies Heavier
Exports of goods rose 23.7% to USD 12,444.9M, led by gold (USD 5,834.5M, from USD 4,431.2M) and manufactured goods (USD 2,202.4M, from USD 1,546.2M, on iron, steel and glassware). Tobacco rose; coffee and cashew declined. Imports of goods rose 27.5% to USD 18,686.1M.
Select Exports of Goods and Services
USD million, years to September. Source: BoT Chart 2.7.2.
Select Imports of Goods and Services
USD million, years to September. Freight is a service payment. Source: BoT Chart 2.7.4.
Gold is the single largest export (+31.7%), helped by favourable global prices and domestic production; the BoT's gold purchase programme supports reserves.
Petroleum products (about 20% of goods imports) rose 72.3% to USD 3,813.6M on higher global prices; industrial supplies (USD 5,843.9M) and machinery (USD 1,572.1M, +39.9%) point to investment demand.
05 - OUTLOOK & ACTIONWhat to Watch and What to Do
Driver
Risk or opportunity
Indicator
Oil prices
Petroleum imports +72%; every USD 10 a barrel widens the deficit
Brent, petroleum import bill
Tourism growth
Travel receipts slowed to +4.1% after a 3.4x rebound
Travel receipts, arrivals
Transit trade
Transport receipts +30% rely on regional demand and port efficiency
Policymakers: keep reserves above benchmark, shift freight services toward local carriers and logistics, and track services by sub-category (tourism, ICT, business services) to widen the base.
Investors: logistics, ports, hospitality and processing of gold and minerals show the strongest external demand.
Businesses: expect freight costs to follow import volumes and oil prices.
Bottom lineServices and gold keep the external position manageable, but 2026 shows less breadth: oil lifted imports, tourism slowed and transport carried services growth. Reserves are adequate; the task is to widen exports and reduce import-bill sensitivity.
06 - SOURCESSources & Data Notes
Bank of Tanzania, Monthly Economic Review, October 2026: Section 2.7; Table 2.7.1; Charts 2.7.1-2.7.5; Tables A5, A6, A7.
TICGL/TERI arithmetic: category shares, net services, contribution to growth, coverage of the goods deficit, services shares of exports and imports. Data are provisional (p). Table 2.7.1 exports include adjustments for informal cross-border exports (USD 12,444.9M), while Table A6 shows total goods exports of USD 12,042.9M; gold is USD 5,834.5M in the text and Chart 2.7.2 but USD 5,723.4M in Table A6; the text and chart values are used. Calendar-year series (Table A5) and years ending September are labelled separately. This page is research information, not financial advice.
07 - QUICK ANSWERSFrequently Asked Questions
What is Tanzania's current account deficit in 2026?
USD 2,397.5 million in the year to September 2026, up 27.6% from USD 1,879.3 million; reserves are USD 6,031.9 million (4.3 months of imports).
How much does Tanzania earn from services exports?
USD 8,620.2 million (+14.8%): travel USD 4,565.8 million, transport USD 3,478.7 million and other services USD 575.7 million.
What does Tanzania pay for services imports?
USD 3,448.1 million (+8.0%), led by transport/freight at USD 1,847.2 million; travel USD 672.9 million and other services USD 928.0 million.
Do services cover Tanzania's goods trade deficit?
About 83%: a services surplus of USD 5,172.2 million against a goods deficit of USD 6,241.2 million, up from 47% in 2021.
08 - EXPLORE MORETICGL Economic: Related Insights & Tools
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Tanzanian Shilling vs Inflation
How the external gap feeds the currency and prices.
Sekta ya nje ya Tanzania inaendeleaje? Kwa mujibu wa Mapitio ya Kila Mwezi ya Uchumi ya Benki Kuu (Oktoba 2026): nakisi ya akaunti ya sasa imeongezeka kwa asilimia 27.6 hadi USD milioni 2,397.5 kwa mwaka ulioishia Septemba 2026, kwa sababu uagizaji wa bidhaa na huduma (+asilimia 24.0) umezidi mauzo nje (+asilimia 19.9).
Mapato ya huduma (mauzo ya huduma nje): USD milioni 8,620.2 (+asilimia 14.8): usafiri wa kigeni (utalii) USD milioni 4,565.8 (+asilimia 4.1), usafirishaji USD milioni 3,478.7 (+asilimia 30.3), huduma nyingine USD milioni 575.7. Usafirishaji ulichangia asilimia 73 ya ongezeko.
Malipo ya huduma (uagizaji): USD milioni 3,448.1 (+asilimia 8.0), yakiongozwa na usafirishaji wa mizigo (USD milioni 1,847.2).
Ziada ya huduma ya USD milioni 5,172.2 inafidia takriban asilimia 83 ya nakisi ya bidhaa (USD milioni 6,241.2); uagizaji wa mafuta uliruka asilimia 72.3, na dhahabu ilipanda hadi USD milioni 5,834.5.
Akiba ya fedha za kigeni: USD milioni 6,031.9, miezi 4.3 ya uagizaji. Mtazamo: bei za mafuta, kasi ya utalii na biashara ya kupita (transit) vitaamua mwelekeo.
