Tanzania CPI April 2026: Annual Inflation Rises to 4.0%

Section 1

About the National Consumer Price Index (NCPI)

The NCPI, published by Tanzania's National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), is the country's official measure of consumer price inflation. It tracks how the cost of a fixed basket of goods and services changes over time for a representative sample of Tanzanian households.

383

Total goods & services in basket

132

Food & non-alcoholic beverage items

251

Non-food items tracked

📍 Geographic Coverage

Price data is collected from all 26 regional headquarters on the Tanzanian mainland, ensuring nationwide representativeness across both urban and rural areas.

⚖️ Weights & Reference

Weights are derived from the 2017/18 Household Budget Survey, covering urban and rural households. The base price reference period is Jan–Dec 2020; index reference year is 2020.

🗂️ Classification Standard

The NCPI follows the UN COICOP 2018 classification, disseminated across 13 expenditure divisions. Supplementary indices include the Core Index, Energy Index, Services Index, and Goods Index.

📐 Index Formula

Elementary aggregates use the geometric mean of price relatives. Higher-level aggregates use the Lowe Index formula (a type of Laspeyres index), ensuring methodological alignment with international standards.

💡

Why it matters for investors: The NCPI is the primary instrument used by the Bank of Tanzania to calibrate monetary policy. Rising inflation—especially in food and transport—directly affects consumer purchasing power, wage demands, and the operating costs of businesses across all sectors.

Section 2

Annual Headline Inflation: 4.0% in April 2026

Tanzania's annual Headline Inflation Rate for April 2026 jumped to 4.0 percent, a significant increase from the 3.2 percent recorded in March 2026. The overall NCPI index rose from 119.78 in April 2025 to 124.61 in April 2026, reflecting broad-based price pressures across the economy — with transport being the most acute pressure point.

⚠️

Significant acceleration: The jump from 3.2% to 4.0% in a single month is notable. This 0.8 percentage point increase is largely driven by a 29.3% surge in diesel prices and a 29.6% rise in petrol between March and April 2026 — suggesting fuel cost pass-through into transport fares and general goods.

Chart 1: NCPI Index Value & Annual Inflation Rate — Apr 2025 to Apr 2026

Base year 2020 = 100 | Source: National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), Tanzania

Source: NBS Tanzania, May 2026

The chart above illustrates a broadly stable period from April 2025 through mid-2025, followed by a gradual upward trend beginning in late 2025 and accelerating into 2026. The inflation rate, which hovered between 3.2% and 3.5% for most of the year, broke above this band sharply in April 2026.

Section 3

NCPI by Expenditure Group — Full Breakdown

The table below presents the complete NCPI data for all 13 COICOP expenditure divisions, plus selected supplementary indices. Figures compare April 2025, March 2026, and April 2026 index values, along with 1-month and 12-month percentage changes.

Chart 2: 12-Month Inflation Rate by Expenditure Group — April 2026

Annual percentage change, base 2020 = 100

Source: NBS Tanzania, May 2026

#	Expenditure Group	Weight (%)	Apr 2025	Mar 2026	Apr 2026	1-Month Δ	12-Month Δ
1	Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages	28.2	130.62	136.88	138.12	+0.9%	+5.7%
2	Alcoholic Beverages & Tobacco	1.9	112.14	114.41	114.74	+0.3%	+2.3%
3	Clothing & Footwear	10.8	114.51	115.99	116.35	+0.3%	+1.6%
4	Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas & Other Fuels	15.1	118.90	119.82	120.93	+0.9%	+1.7%
5	Furnishings, Household Equipment & Maintenance	7.9	115.35	117.82	118.35	+0.4%	+2.6%
6	Health	2.5	109.31	110.35	111.03	+0.6%	+1.6%
7	Transport ⚡ Highest inflation	14.1	119.73	124.22	130.68	+5.2%	+9.2%
8	Information & Communication	5.4	106.17	107.20	107.18	0.0%	+1.0%
9	Recreation, Sport & Culture	1.6	111.13	111.65	111.93	+0.3%	+0.7%
10	Education Services	2.0	112.16	113.22	115.03	+1.6%	+2.6%
11	Restaurants & Accommodation Services	6.6	117.08	119.07	119.13	+0.1%	+1.8%
12	Insurance & Financial Services	2.1	102.46	102.57	102.59	0.0%	+0.1%
13	Personal Care, Social Protection & Misc.	2.1	118.05	121.88	122.15	+0.2%	+3.5%
TOTAL – ALL ITEMS INDEX		100.0	119.78	123.04	124.61	+1.3%	+4.0%

Supplementary Index Aggregations

Supplementary Index	Weight (%)	Apr 2025	Mar 2026	Apr 2026	1-Month Δ	12-Month Δ
Core Index	73.9	115.66	117.96	119.29	+1.1%	+3.1%
Non-Core Index	26.1	131.47	137.45	139.73	+1.7%	+6.3%
Energy, Fuel & Utilities Index ⚡	5.7	134.05	134.36	141.15	+5.1%	+5.3%
Services Index	37.2	112.54	114.99	117.07	+1.8%	+4.0%
Goods Index	62.8	124.07	127.80	129.09	+1.0%	+4.0%
Education Services & Products Index	4.1	114.37	115.22	116.02	+0.7%	+1.4%
All Items Less Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages	71.8	115.53	117.60	119.31	+1.5%	+3.3%

Source: NBS Tanzania — NCPI Press Release, 8 May 2026

Section 4

Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages Inflation: 5.7%

Food inflation rose to 5.7% year-on-year in April 2026, up from 5.5% in March 2026. With a basket weight of 28.2%, food is the single largest expenditure category and a critical driver of headline inflation. The 1-month increase of 0.9% suggests continued upward momentum. Non-food inflation (all items excluding food & non-alcoholic beverages) rose sharply to 3.3% from 2.1% in March, reflecting the pass-through of fuel costs into the broader economy.

Chart 3: Food, Non-Food & Headline Inflation — Monthly Trend (Apr 2025 – Apr 2026)

Reconstructed from available NBS data points | Annual % change

Source: NBS Tanzania, May 2026. Note: intermediate months interpolated from available data.

Key Food Items Driving Monthly Price Increases (Mar→Apr 2026)

Cocoyams+9.0%

Fruits+6.7%

Cooking Bananas+5.3%

Dry Cassava+4.1%

Pasta Products+1.9%

Sorghum Grains+1.8%

Dried Lentils+1.8%

Vegetables+1.8%

Dried Fish+1.7%

Oils & Fats+1.7%

Bread & Bakery+1.5%

Wheat Grains+1.2%

Wheat Flour+1.2%

Dried Sardines+2.0%

Sweet Potatoes+2.6%

Sugar+2.1%

Dried Beans+1.0%

Poultry+0.9%

Section 5

Core Inflation: 3.1% — A Significant Jump

The Core Index — which excludes volatile unprocessed food, energy, and utilities (with the exception of maize flour) — rose to 3.1% in April 2026, up markedly from 2.2% in March 2026. Covering 297 items representing 73.9% of the total NCPI weight, core inflation is widely regarded as a better indicator of underlying structural price trends.

The acceleration in core inflation is particularly significant from a policy standpoint: it signals that inflationary pressure is no longer confined to volatile categories like food and fuel, but is becoming more entrenched across the broader economy. This is the metric the Bank of Tanzania watches most closely.

Chart 4: Core vs Non-Core vs Headline Inflation — April 2026

12-month percentage change | 2020 = 100

Source: NBS Tanzania, May 2026

🏦

Monetary policy signal: With core inflation rising from 2.2% to 3.1% in one month, the Bank of Tanzania may face growing pressure to tighten monetary conditions. Investors and businesses should monitor the next Monetary Policy Committee statement for guidance on the interest rate outlook.

Section 6

Monthly Change: March to April 2026

The overall NCPI increased by 1.3% between March and April 2026 (from 123.04 to 124.61). This monthly jump — larger than any single-month movement in the preceding 12 months — is primarily attributable to the dramatic fuel price increases. The non-food sectors most affected are listed below.

Chart 5: Key Non-Food Price Increases — March to April 2026 (Monthly % Change)

Selected items from NBS NCPI release

Source: NBS Tanzania, May 2026

Non-Food Items Driving Monthly Price Increases (Mar→Apr 2026)

Petrol+29.6%

Diesel+29.3%

Bodaboda Fare+14.6%

Kerosene+13.4%

Taxi Fares+7.8%

Bus Fares+3.9%

Cement+3.1%

Charcoal+3.1%

Garments (Men)+0.9%

Clothing Materials+0.7%

Household Utensils+0.7%

Detergents+1.3%

📅 Upcoming NCPI Release Schedule

NCPI Reference Month	Scheduled Release Date
May 2026	8 June 2026
June 2026	8 July 2026
July 2026	10 August 2026

Food Sub-Category	Key Items Rising	Monthly Change Range	Severity	Household Impact
Roots & Tubers	Fresh cassava, Irish potatoes, sweet potatoes	+4.5% to +8.2%	🔴 High	Critical — key calorie sources for rural & urban poor
Fish & Seafood	Dried sardines, fresh fish	+2.4% to +4.3%	🟠 Elevated	High — protein affordability under pressure
Fresh Produce	Fruits, vegetables	+3.8%	🟠 Elevated	Moderate-high — seasonal variability expected
Cereals & Grains	Rice, sorghum, maize, finger millet	+1.3% to +2.6%	🟡 Moderate	Moderate — basis of most Tanzanian meals
Flours & Processed Grains	Cassava flour, sorghum flour, maize flour	+1.0% to +2.5%	🟡 Moderate	Moderate — processed forms lag raw grain prices
Legumes	Dried beans, lentils, peas	+0.3% to +1.9%	🟢 Low-Moderate	Low — important affordable protein alternative
Bread & Bakery	Bread, bakery products	+1.3%	🟢 Low-Moderate	Low — urban consumption staple
Dairy	Raw milk of cattle	+0.6%	🟢 Low	Low — relatively stable price environment

The cost of living has become one of the most pressing economic realities shaping everyday life in Tanzania. While the country continues to post relatively strong macroeconomic indicators—such as GDP growth of 5.6% in 2025—these headline figures mask a growing disconnect between household incomes and the actual cost of meeting basic needs. For millions of Tanzanians, especially salaried workers, small entrepreneurs, and urban households, affordability is no longer just a concern—it is a structural challenge.

According to the 2025 Cost of Living Analysis, Tanzania remains 61.2% cheaper overall than the United States, with rent costs approximately 78.3% lower. However, this international comparison obscures a more critical domestic reality: local wages have not kept pace with the rising cost of housing, food, utilities, and essential services.

In 2025, the average monthly salary is estimated at 637,226 Tanzanian Shillings (TSh). Against this income, the estimated monthly cost of living for a single person—excluding rent—stands at 1,152,096 TSh, while a family of four requires approximately 4.1 million TSh per month to meet basic needs.

This means that even before accounting for rent, the average worker earns less than half of what is required to sustain a modest standard of living.

Where the Pressure Is Coming From

Food and dining account for the largest share of household expenditure, consuming 40–45% of monthly income. A simple inexpensive meal costs around 7,000 TSh, equivalent to 33% of an average daily wage, while a mid-range meal for two can exceed 50,000 TSh, or more than two full days of income for many workers.

Even staple grocery items—though relatively affordable individually—accumulate into a significant monthly burden, especially for families.

Housing costs present an even deeper structural challenge. Renting a one-bedroom apartment in a city centre costs approximately 1.19 million TSh per month, representing 187% of the average monthly salary. Even outside city centres, rent for a modest one-bedroom unit consumes over 70% of average income, while three-bedroom family housing exceeds total earnings entirely.

Utilities and internet add a further 300,000 TSh per month, reinforcing the affordability gap.

Transportation remains relatively affordable—public transport costs around 39,000 TSh per month, or about 6% of salary—but private vehicle ownership is increasingly out of reach, with the cost of a new compact car equivalent to nearly 70 months of income.

The Bigger Picture: Living Costs vs. Earnings

When all expenses are combined, a budget-conscious single person requires approximately 1.25 million TSh per month, nearly double the average salary. For a family of four, sustainable living requires a household income of 4.8–5.5 million TSh per month, typically achievable only with two high-earning adults or external income sources.

This growing income–cost gap explains rising household debt, reduced savings, informal coping strategies, and increasing vulnerability among urban populations. It also places pressure on businesses, as workers demand higher wages while firms face higher operating costs.

Looking Ahead to 2026: What to Expect

The outlook for 2026 presents both risk and uncertainty. Under the baseline scenario—where political and economic conditions stabilize—overall inflation is projected to rise to 4.3%, with food inflation averaging 7.1% and peaking as high as 8.5% mid-year. The Tanzanian Shilling is expected to depreciate by about 4%, pushing up the cost of imported goods, fuel, and agricultural inputs.

In this scenario, average monthly salaries are projected to rise marginally to around 650,000 TSh, while the monthly cost of living for a single person climbs to 1.36 million TSh—deepening the affordability gap rather than closing it. Families would require close to 6 million TSh per month to maintain a moderate standard of living.

Under an adverse scenario, characterized by prolonged political or economic disruptions, inflation could rise to 6.5–7.0%, food prices could increase by 10–12%, and the currency could depreciate by up to 14%. This would push the monthly cost of living for a single person to 1.5 million TSh, while families could face costs exceeding 5.7 million TSh, further increasing poverty and inequality.

Why This Matters

The data sends a clear message: Tanzania’s cost-of-living challenge is no longer about prices alone—it is about income adequacy, economic structure, and policy choices. Without deliberate action on wages, housing supply, food systems, and productivity, economic growth risks becoming disconnected from lived reality. As the country looks toward 2026 and beyond, addressing the cost of living is not just an economic necessity—it is a social and political imperative.

Tanzania offers a significantly lower cost of living compared to the United States, making it an affordable destination for both residents and expatriates. The data shows Tanzania is 61.2% cheaper overall than the US, with rent being 78.3% lower. More on This Topic: Will Tanzania's Robust Central Bank Position Ensure Continued Growth Through 2026?

Monthly Budget Overview

Detailed Cost Breakdown by Category

1. Food & Dining (40-45% of monthly expenses)

Restaurant Dining

Market/Grocery Costs

Weekly grocery budget for single person: ~60,000-80,000 TSh (26-35% of monthly food costs)

2. Housing & Utilities (35-40% of monthly expenses)

Rental Costs

Key Insight: Living outside the city centre saves approximately 62% on rent for 1-bedroom apartments and 60% for 3-bedroom apartments.

Monthly Utilities (85m² Apartment)

3. Transportation (10-15% of monthly expenses)

Budget Recommendation: Public transport is highly affordable at 39,000 TSh/month. For car owners, factor in ~50,000-80,000 TSh monthly for fuel (based on average commuting).

4. Lifestyle & Recreation (5-10% of monthly expenses)

5. Childcare & Education (Variable, can be 30-50% for families)

Critical Note: International schooling is extremely expensive relative to local salaries, typically requiring expatriate-level income or significant family savings.

Monthly Budget Examples

Single Person (Budget-Conscious)

Family of Four (Moderate Lifestyle)

Projected Economic Impact on Cost of Living (2026)

Baseline Scenario (60% Probability): Gradual Stabilization

Adverse Scenario (40% Probability): Prolonged Crisis

Income vs. Cost Gap Analysis (2026)

Current Reality Check

Critical Finding: The average salary falls significantly below estimated costs, with shortfalls ranging from 546,679 TSh for single persons to over 3.6 million TSh for families with one earner.

Report Period: 2021-2025 (Historical) | 2026 (Forecast)
Base Year: 2020 = 100
Weight in Consumer Basket: 28.2%
Date Prepared: December 2025

Tanzania’s food inflation landscape has undergone significant fluctuations over the past five years, shaped by global shocks, domestic supply constraints, and structural market inefficiencies. Between 2021 and 2025, food inflation averaged 5.2%, but the trend reveals pronounced volatility—rising from 3.7% in 2021 to a crisis peak of 7.3% in 2022, driven largely by fuel cost surges (energy inflation averaged 9.1% in 2022) and supply chain disruptions. Although 2024 marked a period of exceptional stability with food inflation dropping to 2.1%, households have since faced renewed pressure in 2025 as inflation accelerated sharply to an average of 6.0%. This rise reflects persistent cost-push factors, including elevated transport index levels that climbed from 103.34 (2021) to 121.50 (2025)—a cumulative increase of 17.6%, directly increasing food distribution expenses.

By November 2025, food inflation reached 6.6%, nearly double the national headline inflation of 3.4%, underscoring the disproportionate burden food prices impose on household purchasing power. Food prices have risen cumulatively by 31.5% since the 2020 base year, intensifying affordability challenges, particularly for low-income urban households and regions dependent on purchased food. Unprocessed and food crop categories—which are highly weather-sensitive—remain the most volatile, with swings as wide as 10.2 percentage points between June 2024 (-1.3%) and July 2025 (8.9%). This volatility reflects structural weaknesses such as low agricultural mechanization, post-harvest losses, long supply chains, and limited storage facilities.

Looking ahead, the 2026 forecast indicates continued upward pressure, with food inflation expected to average 7.1%, peaking at 8.5% in July, driven by seasonal supply shortages, lean-season stress, and higher input costs. Critical food categories such as food crops and unprocessed food are projected to hit peaks of 11.0% and 11.5%, respectively. With Tanzania’s population and urbanization steadily growing, combined with elevated energy and transport costs projected to rise to 6.5–8.0% in 2026, food price stability remains a central macroeconomic concern. Close monitoring and policy interventions—particularly in agricultural productivity, logistics, and market efficiency—will be essential to mitigate risks and sustain household welfare. Read More: Tanzania’s Inflation Path in 2025

Key Highlights

1. HISTORICAL ANALYSIS (2021-2025)

1.1 Five-Year Trend Overview

Year	Average Annual Inflation	Status	Year-on-Year Change
2021	3.7%	Moderate/Baseline	-
2022	7.3%	Very High	+3.6 pp
2023	6.8%	High	-0.5 pp
2024	2.1%	Low/Stable	-4.7 pp
2025 (Jan-Nov)	~6.0%	Rising	+3.9 pp

Key Observation: The data reveals a cyclical pattern with a major spike in 2022, gradual decline through 2023-2024, and a sharp rebound in 2025.

1.2 Food Price Index Evolution

The table below shows how food prices have increased relative to the 2020 base year:

Month	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025
January	100.60	106.99	117.57	119.39	125.77
March	103.93	110.64	121.39	123.05	129.75
June	106.46	112.71	121.49	122.58	131.53
September	103.30	111.89	118.17	121.17	129.70
December	105.90	116.15	118.83	124.27	-
Cumulative Increase	+5.9%	+16.2%	+18.8%	+24.3%	+31.5% (Nov)

Analysis: Food prices have increased by 31.5% cumulatively since the 2020 base year, representing significant erosion of purchasing power for households.

1.3 Crisis Period Analysis - 2022

Category	Peak Inflation Rate	Month Recorded
Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages	9.7%	December 2022
Unprocessed Food	12.7%	December 2022
Food Crops & Related Items	14.2%	December 2022

Impact: The 2022 crisis saw double-digit inflation in key food categories, severely impacting household budgets and food security.

1.4 Recovery Period - 2023-2024

1.5 Current Situation - 2025

Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
5.3%	5.0%	5.4%	5.3%	5.6%	7.3%	7.6%	7.7%	7.0%	7.4%	6.6%

2. CATEGORY BREAKDOWN ANALYSIS

2.1 Food Categories Performance

Category	2022 Peak	2023 Avg	2024 Avg	2025 (Nov)	Volatility
Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages	9.7%	6.8%	2.1%	6.6%	High
Food Crops & Related Items	14.2%	11.3%	-0.4%	5.4%	Very High
Unprocessed Food	12.7%	9.5%	0.3%	7.0%	Very High
Processed Food (implied)	~6-7%	~5%	~3%	~6%	Moderate

2.2 Most Volatile Components

Period	Inflation Rate	Change
June 2024	-1.3%	Price decreases
July 2025	8.9%	Sharp spike
Total Swing	10.2 percentage points	Extreme volatility

Month	2024	2025	Difference
January	0.7%	-1.5%	-2.2 pp
April	0.8%	-0.9%	-1.7 pp
July	-0.9%	3.5%	+4.4 pp
November	-4.0%	5.4%	+9.4 pp

Insight: Food crops show extreme seasonal and year-to-year variations, making them the primary driver of overall food inflation volatility.

2.3 Comparison with Overall Inflation

Measure	Food Inflation	Overall (All Items) Inflation	Gap
November 2025	6.6%	3.4%	+3.2 pp
2025 Average	~6.0%	~3.3%	+2.7 pp

Critical Finding: Food inflation is running at nearly DOUBLE the overall inflation rate, indicating specific supply-side pressures in the food sector.

3. UNDERLYING FACTORS & CHALLENGES

3.1 Cost-Push Factors

Year/Period	Energy & Fuel Inflation	Impact on Food
2022	9.1% annual average	High transport costs
2023	2.3% annual average	Stabilizing
2024	9.3% annual average	Rising pressure
2025 (Nov)	3.8%	Moderate pressure

Index Level	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025 (Nov)
Transport Index	103.34	109.63	112.72	117.42	121.50
Year-on-Year Change	-	+6.1%	+2.8%	+4.2%	+3.5%

Impact: Rising energy and transport costs directly increase food distribution expenses, passed on to consumers.

3.2 Supply-Side Challenges

3.3 Demand-Side Factors

Factor	Impact Level	Description
Population Growth	Medium	Steady demand increase 2-3% annually
Urbanization	Medium	Shift to purchased food vs subsistence
Income Growth	Low-Medium	Changing consumption patterns
Dietary Changes	Low	Gradual shift to processed foods

4. IDENTIFIED PROBLEMS & RISKS

4.1 Current Critical Issues

Problem	Evidence	Severity	Trend
Persistent High Inflation	6+ consecutive months above 6.5% in 2025	HIGH	Worsening
Extreme Volatility	Unprocessed food: -1.3% to +8.9% swing	HIGH	Stable
Energy Cost Pressure	Fuel inflation 3.5-7.9% range	MEDIUM	Fluctuating
Food-Overall Gap	Food 6.6% vs Overall 3.4%	MEDIUM-HIGH	Widening
Seasonal Vulnerability	Consistent Jun-Aug peaks	MEDIUM	Predictable

5. 2026 FORECAST - DETAILED PROJECTIONS

5.1 Base Case Monthly Forecast - 2026

Month	Forecast	Range	Key Drivers	Risk Level
January	6.8%	6.5-7.0%	Post-holiday demand, carryover from 2025	Medium
February	6.2%	5.8-6.5%	Pre-harvest tightening, seasonal low	Medium
March	6.5%	6.2-6.8%	Supply anticipation, input cost increases	Medium
April	7.0%	6.7-7.3%	Lean season begins, stocks depleting	Medium-High
May	7.5%	7.2-7.8%	Peak lean season, pre-harvest price spikes	Medium-High
June	8.0%	7.5-8.5%	Supply tightening, early harvest delays	High
July	8.5%	8.0-9.0%	ANNUAL PEAK - typical seasonal high	High
August	8.0%	7.5-8.5%	New harvest begins, gradual easing	High
September	7.2%	6.8-7.5%	Harvest supplies increase, prices moderate	Medium-High
October	6.8%	6.5-7.2%	Post-harvest stabilization	Medium
November	6.5%	6.2-6.8%	Abundant supply, festival demand	Medium
December	6.8%	6.5-7.2%	Year-end demand, holiday effects	Medium

Quarter	Average	Peak	Status
Q1 2026	6.5%	6.8% (Jan)	Moderate start
Q2 2026	7.5%	8.0% (Jun)	Rising pressure
Q3 2026	7.9%	8.5% (Jul)	CRITICAL PERIOD
Q4 2026	6.7%	6.8% (Oct/Dec)	Stabilizing
ANNUAL	7.1%	8.5% (Jul)	Moderate-High

5.2 Category-Specific Forecasts

Tanzania's food and non-alcoholic beverages inflation rose to 7.7% in August 2025, up from 7.6% in July, reflecting a year-on-year price increase in this category, which holds the largest CPI weight of 28.2%. The food index climbed from 121.12 in August 2024 to 130.48 in August 2025, though it remained nearly flat month-to-month (130.47 to 130.48), buoyed by price drops in staples like maize (-1.9%) and vegetables (-1.8%). This stability masks underlying pressures from agricultural supply challenges, impacting 25-30% of GDP and threatening household affordability, especially for the 57% of households citing food costs as a major concern in 2024.

Category	Annual Avg	Peak Month	Volatility	Key Factors
Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages	7.1%	8.5% (Jul)	High	Overall basket driver
Food Crops	8.5%	11.0% (Jul)	Very High	Weather dependency
Unprocessed Food	9.0%	11.5% (Jul-Aug)	Very High	Seasonal production
Processed Food	5.5%	6.5% (Jun)	Moderate	Input cost driven
Restaurants/Accommodation	4.5%	5.0% (Dec)	Low	Service component

Category	2026 Forecast	Impact on Food
Energy & Fuel	6.5-8.0%	High - transport costs
Transport	4.0-5.0%	High - distribution
Housing/Utilities	4.5-5.5%	Medium - overhead costs

Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages Inflation

This means that on average, the prices of food and non-alcoholic beverages increased by 7.7% over the year.

Food Items Driving the Change (July → August 2025)

Even though annual food inflation was high, the monthly food index was almost flat (0.0%), because prices of some items went down, offsetting increases in others.
Items that recorded price decreases include:

These declines helped stabilize the monthly food inflation despite strong annual growth.

Summary:
Food and non-alcoholic beverages in Tanzania saw 7.7% annual inflation in August 2025, driven mainly by higher year-on-year food costs. However, month-to-month food prices were stable, with declines in staple grains, vegetables, and pulses balancing out other pressures.

Table 1: Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages Inflation Rate

*Note: July 2025 food inflation rate (7.6%) is mentioned in the text as comparison to August 2025 rate.

Table 2: Core Inflation and Other Key Indices (August 2025)

Economic Implications of Food Inflation in Tanzania (August 2025)

In August 2025, Tanzania's food and non-alcoholic beverages inflation reached 7.7%, more than double the headline rate of 3.4%, driven by a year-on-year index rise from 121.12 to 130.48 despite monthly stability (0.0% change from July's 130.47). This category's dominant 28.2% CPI weight amplifies its role in eroding household purchasing power, particularly amid projections of 4.0% overall inflation and 6.0% GDP growth, highlighting vulnerabilities in agriculture and potential poverty exacerbation for low-income groups.

Food inflation disproportionately affects low-income and rural households in Tanzania, where food expenditures can exceed 50% of budgets, compared to the national CPI weight of 28.2%. The 7.7% annual rise in August 2025, up from 7.6% in July and 7.3% in June, intensifies cost-of-living pressures, potentially pushing more households into poverty. In 2024, 57% of households reported food price hikes as a major shock, contributing to intersecting crises like hunger and economic instability. Globally, a 1% food price increase can raise poverty by 0.0001% in low- to middle-income groups, a trend applicable to Tanzania where urban poverty is exacerbated by reduced welfare and access to nutritious food. However, long-term spikes may benefit net food producers, though short-term volatility from weather and supply issues hinders this for subsistence farmers.

As the primary inflation driver, food prices at 7.7% in August 2025 elevate the non-core index to 7.3%, contrasting with core inflation's stability at 2.0% (excluding volatiles like unprocessed food). This contributes to headline inflation's slight rise to 3.4%, within the Bank of Tanzania's (BOT) 3-5% target, but risks broader price instability if unchecked. Agriculture, comprising 25-30% of GDP, faces disruptions from weather-induced supply shortages, amplifying import dependencies and exchange rate pressures (USD/TZS around 2,470). Despite this, Tanzania's 6.0% GDP growth projection for 2025 remains robust, supported by mining and services, though persistent food hikes could dampen consumption and widen inequality.

Monthly price declines in staples like maize (-1.9%), vegetables (-1.8%), and tubers (e.g., sweet potatoes -3.3%) provided short-term relief in August 2025, but year-on-year pressures stem from supply disruptions, including weather events and global commodity trends (FAO index up 7.6% annually). These factors, combined with rising input costs, challenge Tanzania's food security recovery post-pandemic, where agriculture employs over 65% of the workforce. Easing global prices offer some buffer, but domestic volatility could hinder export competitiveness and stock buffers (e.g., 557k tonnes noted earlier in 2025).

BOT's cautious accommodative policy for 2025/26, maintaining low rates to anchor inflation while supporting growth, addresses food-driven pressures through liquidity management and reserves (USD 6 billion). Recommendations include agricultural subsidies and infrastructure to mitigate supply shocks. IMF projections of 4.0% inflation suggest moderation, but sustained food hikes risk derailing 6.0% growth, necessitating targeted interventions for inclusive development.

In June 2025, Tanzania’s headline inflation rate stood at 3.3%, a slight increase from 3.2% in May 2025, remaining within the government’s 3–5% target and aligned with SADC/EAC benchmarks. However, the sharp rise in food inflation to 5.6% in May 2025, driven by supply chain disruptions and price spikes in staples like rice (2.5%), maize flour (0.8%), and cassava (4.2%), significantly impacts the cost of living, particularly for low-income households reliant on these goods. While energy and utilities inflation eased to 6.1% from 7.3% a year earlier, housing costs (7.2% annual increase) and non-food items like charcoal (1.5%) continue to strain budgets. With approximately 26% of Tanzanians living below the poverty line and 80% in the informal sector, these price pressures could exacerbate poverty, fuel wage demands, and challenge economic stability, despite a stable core inflation rate of 1.9%.

Key Inflation Metrics (June 2025)

Impact on Cost of Living

Impact on Poverty Levels

Influence on Wage Demands

Economic Stability

Analytical Insights

Conclusion

Inflation in Tanzania, at 3.3% in June 2025, remains manageable but masks sector-specific pressures, particularly in food (5.6%), which significantly impacts the cost of living for low-income households. This could exacerbate poverty and malnutrition risks, especially in rural areas. Wage demands are likely to rise, particularly in formal sectors, but the informal economy’s dominance limits broad relief. While macroeconomic stability is maintained, addressing food supply chain disruptions is critical to mitigating cost-of-living pressures and ensuring long-term economic stability. Targeted policies, such as food subsidies or infrastructure improvements, could alleviate these challenges.

Below is a table presenting the Annual Inflation Rates by Main Groups for June 2025, based on the data from the provided document. The table includes the main groups, their respective weights in the National Consumer Price Index (NCPI), and the 12-month percent change (annual inflation rate) for June 2025.

Below is a table summarizing key figures related to inflation in Tanzania for June 2025, drawn from the provided document and incorporating relevant details from the earlier context. The table focuses on essential metrics to provide a concise overview of inflation, its sectoral impacts, and related economic indicators.

This table consolidates critical inflation-related figures to highlight their implications for cost of living and economic stability.

Household Type	Monthly Cost (Excluding Rent)	USD Equivalent*
Family of Four	4,110,219 TSh	~$1,644
Single Person	1,152,096 TSh	~$461

Item	Average Cost	Price Range	% of Daily Wage**
Inexpensive Meal	7,000 TSh	3,000-15,000	33%
Mid-Range Meal (2 people)	50,000 TSh	30,000-120,000	235%
Fast Food Combo	20,000 TSh	15,000-25,000	94%
Cappuccino	5,149 TSh	2,000-7,500	24%
Local Beer (0.5L)	2,500 TSh	2,000-5,000	12%

Category	Item	Cost	Budget Impact
Staples	White Rice (1kg)	2,711 TSh	Low
	Fresh Bread (500g)	1,986 TSh	Low
	Eggs (12)	5,291 TSh	Low
Protein	Chicken (1kg)	12,346 TSh	Medium
	Beef (1kg)	10,500 TSh	Medium
	Local Cheese (1kg)	22,125 TSh	High
Produce	Bananas (1kg)	2,527 TSh	Low
	Tomatoes (1kg)	2,406 TSh	Low
	Apples (1kg)	6,167 TSh	Medium

Type	Location	Monthly Rent	Annual Cost	% of Avg Salary
1-Bedroom	City Centre	1,194,740 TSh	14,336,880	187%
1-Bedroom	Outside Centre	452,967 TSh	5,435,604	71%
3-Bedroom	City Centre	2,060,000 TSh	24,720,000	323%
3-Bedroom	Outside Centre	822,208 TSh	9,866,496	129%

Service	Average Cost	Range	% of Rent (1BR Outside)
Electricity, Water, Gas, Garbage	181,593 TSh	120,000-300,000	40%
Internet (60+ Mbps)	99,923 TSh	50,000-150,000	22%
Mobile Phone (10GB+)	28,294 TSh	10,000-50,000	6%
Total Utilities	309,810 TSh	-	68%

Transport Type	Cost	Monthly Impact
Public Transport	One-way ticket: 650 TSh
	Monthly pass: 39,000 TSh	6% of salary
Private Transport	Gasoline (1L): 2,979 TSh
	New Compact Car: 44,297,674 TSh	69.5 months salary
Taxi Services	Start fare: 4,000 TSh
	Per km: 4,000 TSh

Service	Annual Cost	Monthly Equivalent	% of Annual Salary
Preschool/Kindergarten	18,617,766 TSh	1,551,480 TSh	243%
International Primary School	31,434,444 TSh	2,619,537 TSh	411%

Expense Category	Monthly Cost	% of Total
Rent (1BR outside centre)	450,000 TSh	36%
Utilities	310,000 TSh	25%
Food (groceries + occasional dining)	280,000 TSh	22%
Transportation (public)	39,000 TSh	3%
Mobile/Internet	50,000 TSh	4%
Entertainment/Misc	120,000 TSh	10%
TOTAL	1,249,000 TSh	100%

Economic Indicator	2025 Actual	2026 Baseline Projection	Change
GDP Growth	5.6%	5.8%	+0.2%
Overall Inflation	3.4%	4.3%	+0.9%
Food Inflation	6.6%	7.1% (avg), 8.5% (peak July)	+0.5-1.9%
Currency (TSh/USD)	2,692	2,799	-4.0% depreciation
Tourism Revenue Growth	+15%	-12% (Q1) then recovery	Net: -5%
Foreign Aid	$3B+ annually	Reduced by $150M	-5%

Economic Indicator	2026 Adverse Projection	Change from Baseline
GDP Growth	4.0%	-1.8%
Overall Inflation	6.5-7.0%	+2.2-2.7%
Food Inflation	10-12%	+2.9-4.9%
Currency (TSh/USD)	2,950-3,100	-9-14% depreciation
FDI Inflows	50% reduction	-$1.5B
Poverty Rate	26% (from 25%)	+1%

Category	2025	2026 Baseline	2026 Adverse
Average Monthly Salary	637,226 TSh	650,000 TSh (+2%)	640,000 TSh (+0.4%)
Single Person Monthly Costs	1,249,000 TSh	1,360,000 TSh	1,500,000 TSh
Income Shortfall (Single)	-611,774 TSh (-96%)	-710,000 TSh (-109%)	-860,000 TSh (-134%)
Family of Four Costs	4,750,000 TSh	5,175,000 TSh	5,700,000 TSh
Required Household Income	~5,500,000 TSh	~6,000,000 TSh	~6,600,000 TSh

Period	Food CPI Index (2020=100)	Annual Food Inflation Rate (%)	Monthly Change (%)
August 2024	121.12	-	-
July 2025	130.47	7.6*	-
August 2025	130.48	7.7	0.0

Index Type	Weight (%)	Index Value (2020=100)	Annual Inflation Rate (%)
Core Index	73.9	115.98	2.0
Non-Core Index	26.1	130.51	7.3
Energy, Fuel and Utilities	5.7	130.72	2.6
Services Index	37.2	112.69	0.8
Goods Index	62.8	123.96	4.9
Education Services	4.1	114.32	2.8
All Items Less Food	71.82	115.56	1.6

Implication	Key Figure (August 2025)	Broader Effect
Cost of Living	Food Inflation: 7.7%	Reduces real incomes, especially for urban poor; offsets non-food stability (1.6%).
GDP Contribution	Agriculture: 25-30%	Volatility threatens 6.0% growth forecast; potential for welfare gains long-term.
Poverty Risk	Households Affected: ~57% (2024 data)	Exacerbates hunger-poverty nexus in SSA.

S/N	Main Groups	Weight (%)	12-Month Percent Change (June 2025)
1	Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages	28.2	3.5%
2	Alcoholic Beverages and Tobacco	1.9	3.5%
3	Clothing and Footwear	10.8	2.0%
4	Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas, and Other	18.0	7.2%
5	Furnishing, Household Equipment, and Routine Maintenance	7.0	2.0%
6	Health	2.5	1.8%
7	Transport	4.1	1.6%
8	Information and Communication	5.4	0.0%
9	Recreation, Sport, and Culture	2.5	1.2%
10	Education Services	2.0	1.1%
11	Restaurants and Accommodation Services	2.6	1.3%
12	Insurance and Financial Services	2.1	1.6%
13	Personal Care, Social Protection, and Miscellaneous Goods	2.1	2.0%
Total	All Items Index	100.0	3.3%

Category	Item	Cost	Affordability
Fitness	Gym Membership	145,556 TSh	23% of salary
Entertainment	Cinema Ticket	12,000 TSh	2% of salary
	Tennis Court (1hr)	16,250 TSh	3% of salary
Clothing	Jeans (Levi's)	39,375 TSh	6% of salary
	Running Shoes	83,571 TSh	13% of salary

Metric	Value	Notes
Headline Inflation Rate	3.3%	Annual rate for June 2025, up from 3.2% in May 2025, within 3–5% target.
Core Inflation Rate	1.9%	Decreased from 2.1% in May 2025, excludes volatile items (food, energy).
Food Inflation Rate	5.6% (May 2025), 3.5% (June 2025)	Driven by staples like rice (2.5%), maize flour (0.8%), cassava (4.2%).
Energy, Fuel, and Utilities Inflation	6.1% (May 2025), 7.2% (Housing, June 2025)	Eased from 7.3% in May 2024; housing and utilities lead non-food inflation.
NCPI (All Items Index)	120.18	Increased from 119.85 (May 2025), a 0.3% monthly rise (base: 2020 = 100).
Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages Weight	28.2%	Largest NCPI component, significantly impacts cost of living.
Housing and Utilities Weight	18.0%	Second-largest NCPI component, with a 7.2% annual inflation rate.
Key Food Price Increases	Rice: 2.5%, Cassava: 4.2%, Millet: 7.0%	Monthly price changes contributing to food inflation.
Key Non-Food Price Increases	Charcoal: 1.5%, Diesel: 0.7%, Rentals: 0.3%	Monthly increases affecting household budgets.
Poverty Rate (Recent Estimate)	~26%	World Bank estimate (below $2.15/day, 2017 PPP); food inflation may worsen.
Child Stunting Rate	30%	2022 Demographic and Health Survey; rising food prices may exacerbate.
Informal Sector Workforce	~80%	Limits wage adjustments, increasing reliance on subsidies or safety nets.

About the National Consumer Price Index (NCPI)

📍 Geographic Coverage

⚖️ Weights & Reference

🗂️ Classification Standard

📐 Index Formula

Annual Headline Inflation: 4.0% in April 2026

NCPI by Expenditure Group — Full Breakdown

Supplementary Index Aggregations

Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages Inflation: 5.7%

Key Food Items Driving Monthly Price Increases (Mar→Apr 2026)

Core Inflation: 3.1% — A Significant Jump

Monthly Change: March to April 2026

Non-Food Items Driving Monthly Price Increases (Mar→Apr 2026)

📅 Upcoming NCPI Release Schedule

Explore More from TICGL Economic Intelligence

About the National Consumer Price Index (NCPI)

🛒 Basket Composition

⚖️ Weights & Reference Period

🗂️ Classification

📐 Compilation Method

Annual Headline Inflation: March 2026 at 3.2%

12-Month Inflation by Category (%)

Monthly Change by Category (%)

NCPI by Division — Full Table (2020 = 100)

Supplementary Price Indices

Core vs Non-Core Inflation

Goods vs Services Inflation

Monthly Price Drivers: Feb → Mar 2026

Upcoming NCPI Release Schedule

April 2026

May 2026

June 2026

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Category Performance Deep-Dive

Inflation Trend Analysis — 13-Month Review

Inflation Rate Distribution

Monthly Index Movement

Energy, Fuel & Utilities — Price Pressure Analysis

Energy & Fuel Index: +2.1% Monthly | +2.1% Annually

Monthly Price Change — Key Energy & Fuel Items

Energy Index Trend — Mar 2025 to Mar 2026

Food & Nutrition Security — Price Signals

Staple Food Price Changes — Monthly (%)

Protein Sources — Monthly Price Change (%)

Investment & Business Implications

Monetary & Macro Stability

Agri-Food Sector

Transport & Logistics

Real Estate & Housing

ICT & Digital Economy

Food Service & Hospitality

Financial Services

Retail & Consumer Goods

📊 Tanzania Inflation Sector Scorecard — March 2026

Frequently Asked Questions — Tanzania CPI March 2026

Where the Pressure Is Coming From

The Bigger Picture: Living Costs vs. Earnings

Looking Ahead to 2026: What to Expect

Why This Matters

Monthly Budget Overview

Detailed Cost Breakdown by Category

1. Food & Dining (40-45% of monthly expenses)

Restaurant Dining

Market/Grocery Costs

2. Housing & Utilities (35-40% of monthly expenses)

Rental Costs

Monthly Utilities (85m² Apartment)

3. Transportation (10-15% of monthly expenses)

4. Lifestyle & Recreation (5-10% of monthly expenses)

5. Childcare & Education (Variable, can be 30-50% for families)

Monthly Budget Examples

Single Person (Budget-Conscious)

Family of Four (Moderate Lifestyle)