How much government debt is outstanding in Tanzania's securities market?

Outstanding government securities were TZS 33.56 trillion at face value on 9 October 2026: Treasury bonds TZS 29.99 trillion (89.35 percent) and Treasury bills TZS 3.57 trillion (10.65 percent), up TZS 0.16 trillion in a week.

What happens next in the government securities market?

The next auction is on Wednesday 14 October 2026, when a 25-year Treasury bond will be offered. The previous 25-year auction yielded 11.48 percent with a bid-to-cover ratio of 3.49 times.

#BankofTanzania - TICGL | Tanzania Investment and Consultant Group Ltd

Scope

Prepared by TERI for research and strategic-information purposes; it is not investment, legal, tax or financial advice. All market data come from the Bank of Tanzania weekly report. The report gives IFEM turnover only, not direction or counterparties, so statements about who was buying or selling are interpretations of the retail data and are labelled as such.

00 — OverviewExecutive Summary: Three Times the Volume, Almost No Price Move

Between 19 and 23 October 2026 the Interbank Foreign Exchange Market traded USD 60.80 million, up USD 41.10 million (+208.6%) from USD 19.70 million the week before. Activity built through the week: USD 7.60 million on Monday, USD 4.30 million on Tuesday, then USD 17.60 million, USD 12.20 million and USD 19.10 million from Wednesday to Friday. The Bank of Tanzania's indicative mean rate for the US dollar moved only from TZS 2,633.12 to TZS 2,636.74. A jump in volume with almost no jump in price tells us the market absorbed the extra turnover, but it does not tell us why it appeared. The retail data in the same report supply most of the clues.

IFEM turnover

USD 60.80m

+USD 41.10m, +208.6% week on week

Per trading day

≈ 2.5x

USD 12.16m (5 days) vs USD 4.93m (4 days)

Retail net dollar surplus

−75.5%

USD 121.35m to USD 29.70m

Mining dollar purchases

−60.3%

USD 65.77m to USD 26.08m

Oil & Energy dollar sales

+21.0%

USD 57.06m to USD 69.06m

Retail FX turnover

USD 575.68m

−4.8% from USD 604.89m

IBCM 7-day rate

6.59%

from 6.68%; CBR 6.25%

T-bill auction 1209

TZS 360.9bn

allotted; 364-day yield 6.1342%

IFEM Turnover: Previous Week vs This Week

USD million. Source: Bank of Tanzania, Charts 1 and 2; TICGL/TERI calc.

IFEM Turnover by Day

USD million, Monday to Friday. No bar for Wednesday 14 October in the Bank's chart. Source: Bank of Tanzania, Charts 1 and 2

Key findings

The surge was late-week and lumpy. Wednesday to Friday accounted for USD 48.90 million, about 80% of the week, and Friday's USD 19.10 million was the biggest day of either week. That pattern fits position adjustments and larger tickets better than a steady drift in demand.
It is not a dollar shortage on this evidence. Retail banks still bought more dollars (USD 302.69 million) than they sold (USD 272.99 million). The retail net surplus of USD 29.70 million is thinner than the previous week's USD 121.35 million, but it is above the roughly USD 14 million a five-day week implied by the past month's average daily purchases (USD 64.31 million) and sales (USD 61.48 million).
The previous week looks like the outlier. Banks bought almost USD 121 million net from customers and IFEM was at USD 19.70 million, partly on a four-day week. Banks that were long dollars had less need to trade with each other. When the surplus faded and positions became more mixed, interbank redistribution rose.
Mining supply fell, oil demand rose. Mining dollar purchases by banks dropped by USD 39.69 million and oil and energy sales rose by USD 12.00 million. Mining alone explains USD 41.04 million of the USD 91.65 million swing in net retail surplus.
Interest rates stayed calm. The 7-day interbank rate closed at 6.59%, down from 6.68%, and averaged 6.42% against the 6.25% policy rate, while the Bank injected TZS 774.96 billion through reverse repos (TZS 892.50 billion the week before).
Government securities are bank-led. At auction 1209 banks took 100% of subscriptions and allotments; short tenors (35 and 91 days) were undersubscribed while 182 and 364-day bills were oversubscribed, and all four yields sat below the 6.25% policy rate, with the 364-day bill closest at 6.13%, 12 bps under it.

Bottom line

The IFEM triple is best read as the interbank market redistributing dollars after the customer-side surplus faded, with mining supply down and oil and manufacturing demand up, rather than as evidence of capital flight or a shortage. The shilling's 0.14% move supports that reading. The risk to watch is the direction of the retail surplus: it has now fallen sharply for a week, and a second week of falling mining purchases plus rising oil sales would change the story. The next tabs show the numbers.

01 — The IFEM SurgeFrom USD 19.70 Million to USD 60.80 Million: Anatomy of a Threefold Jump

The IFEM is where banks trade foreign exchange with each other to square their positions. Higher turnover means more banks needed to move dollars among themselves, either because positions diverged or because larger deals came through. The report publishes only volume. This tab places the weekly jump in its daily, monthly and multi-year context, then tests the explanations the data allow.

1.1 Day by day

Weekday	Previous week (12–16 Oct), USD m	This week (19–23 Oct), USD m	Change, USD m
Monday	3.10	7.60	+4.50
Tuesday	3.60	4.30	+0.70
Wednesday	no bar shown	17.60	+17.60
Thursday	5.00	12.20	+7.20
Friday	8.00	19.10	+11.10
Week	19.70	60.80	+41.10 (+208.6%)

Table 1.1. Source: Bank of Tanzania, Charts 1 and 2. The Bank's chart for the previous week has no bar on Wednesday 14 October, and the interbank cash market shows four trading days for the same week; 14 October is Nyerere Day, a public holiday (TICGL/TERI note, not stated in the report). On that basis the average was USD 4.93 million over four days against USD 12.16 million over five days this week, about 2.5 times.

Cumulative IFEM Turnover Through the Week

USD million, running total by weekday. This week's line pulls away on Wednesday and never comes back. TICGL/TERI calc. from Bank of Tanzania daily data

Weekly Pace: This Week vs the Longer Run

Average USD million per week. Monthly averages divided by 4.345 weeks. 2026 average covers January to September. Source: Bank of Tanzania, Chart 3; TICGL/TERI calc.

1.2 The long view: a market that has grown 3x in two years

Monthly IFEM turnover averaged about USD 50.9 million in 2024 (USD 611.1 million in total), rose to about USD 98.6 million in 2025 (USD 1,183.1 million) and has averaged about USD 152.2 million a month from January to September 2026 (USD 1,369.6 million so far). The Bank's monthly series peaked at USD 227.1 million in July 2026. In weekly terms, 2026 has run at about USD 35 million a week, so last week's USD 19.70 million was about 56% of that pace and this week's USD 60.80 million about 174% of it. The surge is therefore a swing from a quiet week to an active one on top of a market that has been structurally deepening, not a leap into unknown territory.

Monthly IFEM Turnover, January 2024 to October 2026

USD million per month with 3-month moving average. October 2026 (amber) is the Bank's latest bar, which appears to be month to date. Source: Bank of Tanzania, Chart 3; TICGL/TERI calc.

How October 2026 Is Building Up

USD million. If the October bar of USD 111.70 million runs to 23 October, USD 31.20 million is implied for the days before 12 October (amber, TICGL/TERI inference). Source: Bank of Tanzania, Charts 1–3

Reading the October bar

This week alone is about 54% of October's USD 111.70 million month-to-date total. October therefore already sits near the 2026 monthly average (USD 152.2 million) with the last week of the month still to trade, and the month-end week is often busy. If volumes hold near this week's level, October would pass September's USD 151.65 million. The report does not state the cut-off date of the October bar, so this is an inference to be confirmed against the Bank's next monthly figure.

1.3 Was it capital flows, a few big trades, or something else?

Explanation	What the report shows	What would confirm it	Fit
Banks redistributing dollars after a long-dollar week	Retail purchases fell from USD 363.12m to USD 302.69m while sales rose from USD 241.77m to USD 272.99m; net surplus fell from USD 121.35m to USD 29.70m. Banks that were flush last week were less in need of interbank dollars; this week positions diverged.	Bank-level position data; IFEM volume easing once retail surplus stabilises	Strongest
Weaker mining dollar supply	Mining purchases fell 60.3% (USD 65.77m to USD 26.08m); mining net inflow fell USD 41.04m.	Mining purchases staying low next week; export receipt timing from mining firms	Strong
Higher end-user dollar demand (oil, manufacturing)	Oil and Energy sales +21.0% to USD 69.06m; Manufacturing sales +33.1% to USD 37.24m.	Oil and energy sales staying above USD 65m a week; month-end import settlement	Strong
Large one-off or capital-account deals	80% of the week's volume came Wednesday to Friday, with a USD 17.60m single day. The report does not break IFEM by counterparty, and T-bill auction 1209 shows no non-bank participation (banks 100%).	Bank of Tanzania commentary; non-resident portfolio data; capital-account releases	Possible, unverified
Calendar and base effect	The previous week appears to have had four trading days and was only 56% of the 2026 weekly pace. Even per trading day, this week is about 2.5 times last.	Next week's IFEM level against the USD 35m run-rate	Partial
Central bank participation	The weekly report does not say whether the Bank traded in IFEM; its only stated liquidity action is the TZS 774.96bn reverse repo.	Bank of Tanzania statements on FX operations	Not shown

Table 1.3. TICGL/TERI assessment. "Fit" rates how well the published data support each explanation, not the probability that it is true.

1.4 Buying pressure or selling pressure?

IFEM volume has no sign. The retail side does. Banks sold more dollars to customers (up 12.9%) and bought fewer from them (down 16.6%), and the sectors that took dollars (oil and energy, manufacturing) grew while the sector that supplied them (mining) shrank. That is a swing toward dollar demand compared with last week. But the retail market remained a net buyer of dollars from customers, and the shilling moved just 0.14%. The fair summary is a shift from dollar abundance toward balance, not a shortage. The pressure indicator to watch is whether banks' sales to customers keep rising faster than their purchases.

Why the shilling did not move more

Three observations in the same report point to an orderly market: the retail surplus was still positive; the interbank cash rate stayed inside the 4.75–7.75% corridor and closed lower; and the Bank was supplying shilling liquidity. None of these proves that no one was stretched, but together they argue against a disorderly dollar squeeze this week.

02 — Retail FX & SectorsWho Supplied Dollars, Who Used Them, and What Changed in One Week

Retail foreign exchange covers dollars that commercial banks buy from customers (purchases, dollar supply) and sell to customers (sales, dollar demand). Total retail turnover edged down to USD 575.68 million from USD 604.89 million (−USD 29.21 million, −4.8%). Trade (USD 172.34 million), Oil and Energy (USD 80.55 million) and Agriculture (USD 78.09 million) were the three biggest sectors, together USD 330.98 million or 57.5% of the week. Over the past month daily retail turnover averaged USD 125.79 million, made up of USD 64.31 million of purchases and USD 61.48 million of sales.

Sector	Previous week (USD m)			This week (USD m)			Swing in net, USD m
Sector	Purch.	Sales	Net	Purch.	Sales	Net	Swing in net, USD m
Trade	97.56	83.72	+13.84	84.15	88.19	−4.04	−17.88
Oil & Energy	7.73	57.06	−49.33	11.49	69.06	−57.57	−8.24
Agriculture	62.74	10.27	+52.47	64.28	13.81	+50.47	−2.00
Manufacturing	10.29	27.99	−17.70	13.90	37.24	−23.34	−5.64
Individual retail customers	25.38	15.84	+9.54	18.82	17.20	+1.62	−7.92
Mining	65.77	8.41	+57.36	26.08	9.76	+16.32	−41.04
Tourism	24.81	2.07	+22.74	28.55	3.92	+24.63	+1.89
Transport & Communication	29.80	6.03	+23.77	21.16	10.12	+11.04	−12.73
Construction (machinery & equipment)	19.44	19.73	−0.29	9.92	13.50	−3.58	−3.29
Social services	10.44	5.31	+5.13	11.58	5.56	+6.02	+0.89
NGOs	9.05	2.37	+6.68	12.01	0.42	+11.59	+4.91
Breweries / Beverages	0.13	2.96	−2.83	0.75	4.19	−3.44	−0.61
Total	363.12	241.77	+121.35	302.69	272.99	+29.70	−91.65

Table 2.1. Weekly commercial banks' retail FX transactions by sector. Purchases and sales are from the Bank of Tanzania (Table 2); "net" is purchases minus sales, i.e. dollars banks absorbed from customers minus dollars they supplied (TICGL/TERI calc.). Small differences from the Bank's published totals are rounding.

Total Turnover by Sector

USD million, purchases plus sales. Source: Bank of Tanzania, Table 2

Net Dollar Position by Sector

USD million, purchases minus sales. Positive: sector supplied dollars to banks. Negative: sector drew dollars from banks. TICGL/TERI calc.

What Moved the Net Surplus: Sector Swing, This Week Minus Last

USD million change in net dollar position. The total is −USD 91.65m; mining alone is −USD 41.04m, trade −USD 17.88m and transport −USD 12.73m. TICGL/TERI calc.

Purchases, Sales and the Net Surplus

USD million. Banks bought less and sold more; the surplus fell by three quarters. Source: Bank of Tanzania, Table 2; TICGL/TERI calc.

Net Surplus: Two Weeks vs the Month's Average Pace

USD million per week. Month pace = (USD 64.31m − 61.48m) per day × 5 days, TICGL/TERI calc. Last week was the outlier

2.1 Oil & Energy and Mining: the two sectors that matter most

Mining and Oil & Energy: Purchases and Sales

USD million. Mining is a supplier of dollars; oil and energy is a user. Source: Bank of Tanzania, Table 2

Mining: the supply side weakened

Mining banks' dollar purchases fell by more than half, USD 65.77 million to USD 26.08 million, taking mining's net inflow from USD 57.36 million to USD 16.32 million. Mining is lumpy because export receipts arrive in batches, so one week of weak purchases may be timing. It matters for the IFEM because mining was the largest single supplier of dollars to banks the week before, so its fade leaves some banks short relative to customer demand.

Oil & Energy: the demand side firmed

Banks sold USD 69.06 million to oil and energy customers, up 21.0%, and total sector turnover rose 24.3% to USD 80.55 million. This is the single largest net user of dollars in the retail market (net −USD 57.57 million) and the one most exposed to month-end settlement. Manufacturing, the next biggest user, saw sales rise 33.1% to USD 37.24 million.

What the sector data do and do not say

The sector table describes customers' dealings with commercial banks, not the interbank counterparties. It is the best available explanation of why banks needed to trade among themselves more, but the IFEM data are not broken down by sector. The link between mining and oil flows and IFEM volume is therefore an inference from timing and direction, and should be tested again with next week's report.

03 — Exchange RatesThe Shilling Held Against the Dollar, Weakened Against Sterling and Strengthened Against the Ugandan Shilling

The Bank of Tanzania's indicative mean rate for the US dollar closed the week at TZS 2,636.74, from TZS 2,633.12, a depreciation of the shilling of 0.14%. The shilling weakened most against sterling (1.09%), the yen (0.63%), the renminbi and the rupee (0.39% each), and by smaller amounts against the euro (0.06%) and the Kenyan shilling (0.14%). It strengthened against the Ugandan shilling, whose rate fell from TZS 0.65 to TZS 0.61 (−5.79% as published; the two-decimal rates round heavily).

Currency	16 Oct 2026 (TZS)	23 Oct 2026 (TZS)	Change (%)	Direction for the shilling
British Pound Sterling	3,487.83	3,525.85	+1.09	Weaker
Chinese Yuan (Renminbi)	393.52	395.06	+0.39	Weaker
Euro	2,950.67	2,952.36	+0.06	Broadly unchanged
Indian Rupee	27.70	27.81	+0.39	Weaker
Japanese Yen	16.67	16.78	+0.63	Weaker
Kenyan Shilling	20.25	20.28	+0.14	Broadly unchanged
Rwandan Franc	1.78	1.78	+0.09	Broadly unchanged
Ugandan Shilling	0.65	0.61	−5.79	Stronger
United States Dollar	2,633.12	2,636.74	+0.14	Slightly weaker

Table 3.1. Selected exchange rates, TZS per unit of foreign currency. Source: Bank of Tanzania, Table 1. A positive change means the foreign currency became more expensive in shillings.

Weekly Change Against the Shilling

Percent change in TZS per unit of foreign currency, 16 to 23 October. Positive: shilling weaker. Source: Bank of Tanzania, Table 1

Dollar, Euro and Sterling in Shillings

TZS per unit, 16 and 23 October. Source: Bank of Tanzania, Table 1

What this means

A move of 0.14% against the dollar in a week in which interbank volume tripled is small. It shows the extra dollar trading cleared without forcing a price move. The bigger moves against sterling and the yen are largely about those currencies' own movements against the dollar, since the shilling's rate to the dollar barely changed. Importers paying in sterling saw the sharpest cost increase this week.

04 — Money MarketShilling Liquidity: Rates Calm, Central Bank Still Injecting

The interbank cash market (IBCM) is where banks lend each other shillings. Its weighted average rate (WAR) closed the week at 6.59%, down from 6.68%. The 7-day weekly WAR averaged 6.42%, inside the Central Bank Rate corridor of 4.75% to 7.75% and 17 basis points above the Central Bank Rate (CBR) of 6.25%. Total 7-day trading volume fell to TZS 587.45 billion from TZS 812.65 billion. The Bank ran its 7-day reverse repo through main operations at the CBR, injecting TZS 774.96 billion, down from TZS 892.50 billion.

IBCM WAR, Friday close

6.59%

from 6.68%

Weekly average WAR

6.42%

+17 bps over CBR

7-day IBCM volume

TZS 587.45bn

−27.7% from TZS 812.65bn

Reverse repo injected

TZS 774.96bn

from TZS 892.50bn (−13.2%)

Interbank Cash Market: Daily Volume and Weighted Average Rate

Bars: TZS billion (left). Lines: WAR % (right) with the 6.25% Central Bank Rate. Four trading days for 12–16 Oct (14 Oct missing in the Bank's chart), five for 19–23 Oct. Source: Bank of Tanzania, Charts 6 and 7

IFEM Volume vs Interbank Cash Rate

Bars: IFEM turnover, USD million (left). Line: IBCM WAR % (right). Dollar volume tripled while shilling rates stayed between 6.1% and 6.7%. Source: Bank of Tanzania

Weekly Money Market Totals

TZS billion. 7-day IBCM volume and reverse repo injection, previous vs this week. Source: Bank of Tanzania, Sections 2.1–2.2

Reverse Repo Injections: Last 25 Operations

TZS billion per operation, oldest to latest (the last two bars are TZS 892.5bn and TZS 775.0bn). Dates are not given in the Bank's chart data. Source: Bank of Tanzania, Chart 8

4.1 How the FX market and the money market connect

1 · Dollar demand risesBanks sell more dollars to customers (oil, manufacturing). Mining supply is lower.

2 · Banks trade among themselvesIFEM volume rises as banks with spare dollars sell to those that are short.

3 · Shillings change handsDollar sales to customers drain customer shillings into banks, while buying dollars interbank uses shillings; liquidity moves around the system.

4 · Central bank smoothsReverse repos at the CBR add shilling liquidity so the cash rate stays near 6.25%.

This week's evidence is consistent with a smooth chain. The 7-day cash rate was 6.16% to 6.59% every day this week, volume dipped to TZS 28.0 billion on Wednesday 21 October (the same day IFEM trading reached USD 17.60 million and Treasury bill auction 1209 was held) and recovered to TZS 143.1 billion the next day. We note the coincidence but cannot infer causality from one week. The practical point is that shilling funding did not tighten as dollar trading surged.

A note on policy stance

The Bank describes a weekly WAR 17 bps above the CBR as "consistent with the Bank's policy stance". Rates a little above the policy rate with active reverse repos mean the central bank is meeting demand for liquidity at the policy rate, not leaving banks to bid it up. A rise of the WAR toward the 7.75% corridor ceiling would be the sign of real stress.

05 — Government SecuritiesA Bank-Dominated Auction, a Steep Short End and a Fast-Growing Investor Base

Outstanding government securities stand at TZS 34,217.52 billion, of which Treasury bonds are TZS 30,537.77 billion (89.25%) and Treasury bills TZS 3,679.76 billion (10.75%). Banks (34.43%), pension funds (29.70%) and retail investors (17.70%) hold the biggest shares. The Bank of Tanzania reports that 4,015 new clients have been onboarded in the current fiscal year, bringing registered clients to 35,517.

5.1 Who holds government securities

Investor category	Face value (TZS bn)	Share (%)
Banks	11,780.30	34.43
Pension funds	10,162.80	29.70
Retail investors	6,055.95	17.70
CIS and other official entities	2,757.91	8.06
Insurance companies	2,475.06	7.23
Others	985.51	2.88
Total	34,217.52	100.00

Table 5.1. Source: Bank of Tanzania, Table 3.

Government Securities by Holder

Percent of outstanding face value. Source: Bank of Tanzania, Table 3

Stock by Instrument

TZS billion outstanding. Bonds are 89.25% of the stock. Source: Bank of Tanzania, Section 3.1

New Registered Clients per Fiscal Year

Number of new clients. Fiscal-year labels inferred from the Bank's chart (15 bars ending with the current year, 4,015 so far); total registered 35,517. Source: Bank of Tanzania, Chart 9

5.2 Treasury bill auction 1209, 21 October 2026

The auction offered 35, 91, 182 and 364-day bills and attracted 88 bids, of which 65 were successful. TZS 457.58 billion was tendered against TZS 388.70 billion offered, an aggregate oversubscription of TZS 68.88 billion, and TZS 360.90 billion was allotted. The aggregate masks a split: the two short tenors were undersubscribed (bid-to-cover 0.80x and 0.74x), while 182 and 364-day bills were oversubscribed (1.26x and 1.42x). Banks accounted for 100% of subscriptions and allotments.

Item	35 days	91 days	182 days	364 days
Maturity date	26 Nov 2026	21 Jan 2027	22 Apr 2027	21 Oct 2027
Bids received / successful	9 / 9	14 / 14	30 / 25	35 / 17
Highest bid (per 100)	99.7418	99.2576	97.7101	94.4342
Lowest bid (per 100)	99.6161	98.9846	96.8551	91.5544
Minimum successful price (per 100)	99.6161	98.9846	97.0481	94.0710
WAP, successful bids (per 100)	99.6619	99.1017	97.2971	94.2353
Weighted average yield (%)	3.54	3.64	5.57	6.13
Amount offered (TZS m)	49,900.0	69,900.0	99,900.0	169,000.0
Total tendered (TZS m)	40,000.0	52,000.0	125,500.0	240,080.0
Tendered minus offered (TZS m)	−9,900.0	−17,900.0	+25,600.0	+71,080.0
Successful bids (TZS m)	40,000.0	52,000.0	99,900.0	169,000.0
Bid-to-cover ratio	0.80x	0.74x	1.26x	1.42x

Table 5.2. Source: Bank of Tanzania, Table 5. The Bank prints "under/oversubscribed" with the opposite sign to the one used here (it shows +9,900.0 for the 35-day bill, which was undersubscribed); this page shows tendered minus offered so that oversubscription is positive. The four allotments sum to TZS 360.90 billion.

T-bill Yield Curve at Auction 1209 vs the Policy Rate

Weighted average yield, %, with the 6.25% Central Bank Rate. All four tenors yield at or below the policy rate. Source: Bank of Tanzania, Table 5

Offered, Tendered and Allotted by Tenor

TZS billion. Short tenors were undersubscribed; 182 and 364-day bills were over. Source: Bank of Tanzania, Table 5

Bid-to-Cover Ratio by Tenor

Times. Above 1.0x means more tendered than offered. Source: Bank of Tanzania, Table 5

Reading the auction

Bidding was cautious at the very short end: the 35 and 91-day bills yield only 3.5–3.6%, well under the 6.25% policy rate and under the 6.1–6.7% daily interbank rates, which may explain why those tenors were undersubscribed (TICGL/TERI interpretation; the report gives no reason). The 364-day yield of 6.13% is the only tenor close to the policy rate. The Bank has also scheduled the next auction for Wednesday 28 October 2026, when a 20-year Treasury bond will be offered under the issuance calendar.

06 — Outlook & WatchlistWhat Would Tell Us Whether the Surge Is a Blip or a Turn

One week of data cannot establish a trend, so this tab sets out three illustrative paths for the next few weeks and the indicators in the Bank's weekly report that would distinguish them. The bands are TICGL/TERI illustrations anchored on the 2026 weekly IFEM pace (about USD 35 million) and this week's level, not forecasts.

Path	IFEM weekly turnover	Retail net dollar position	Shilling and rates
A. Orderly normalisation	Falls back toward USD 25–40m, near the 2026 pace	Mining purchases recover; net surplus rebuilds above the month's average pace (about USD 14m a week)	USD/TZS drifts within a narrow range; WAR stays near the 6.25% CBR
B. Elevated and two-way	Stays USD 45–65m as banks keep rebalancing	Surplus stays thin, but positive	Mild shilling weakness; WAR near 6.4–6.7%; reverse repos continue
C. Dollar-demand squeeze	Stays high or rises further	Net surplus turns negative (sales above purchases) for more than one week, led by oil, manufacturing and trade	Faster depreciation; WAR moves toward the upper corridor; more official operations likely

Table 6.1. Illustrative paths. Based on the single week reported; no probabilities are attached.

6.1 Weekly indicators to track

Indicator	This week	Signal to watch
IFEM turnover	USD 60.80m	Stays above the USD 35m 2026 weekly pace or fades
Retail net dollar surplus	USD 29.70m	Turns negative, or rebuilds
Sales-to-purchases ratio	0.90 (0.67 last week; 0.96 month average)	Rises toward or above 1.0
Mining purchases	USD 26.08m	Rebound toward the USD 65m of the prior week
Oil & Energy sales	USD 69.06m	Further increase beyond USD 70m a week
USD / TZS	2,636.74	Weekly move well above 0.14%
IBCM 7-day WAR	6.59% (CBR 6.25%)	Moves toward the 7.75% corridor ceiling
Reverse repo injection	TZS 774.96bn	Return above TZS 890bn
20-year bond auction, 28 Oct	Scheduled	Bid-to-cover and the yield level relative to the T-bill curve

6.2 Try the numbers

IFEM week-on-week calculator

Defaults are this report's figures. Change them to test next week's turnover against the 2026 pace.

Previous week IFEM, USD m

This week IFEM, USD m

2026 average weekly IFEM, USD m

Multiple of last week

–

this week ÷ previous week

Change

–

percent, week on week

Per day (5 days)

–

USD million a trading day

Versus 2026 pace

–

this week ÷ 2026 weekly average

Retail dollar position calculator

Enter a week's bank purchases from customers and sales to customers (Table 2 totals).

Purchases (dollar supply), USD m

Sales (dollar demand), USD m

Month-average net per week, USD m

Net position

–

purchases − sales, USD m

Sales ÷ purchases

–

1.0 = balanced

Versus month pace

–

difference, USD m

Reading

–

Triple the volume with a 0.14% price move is a market absorbing a rebalancing. The test is the next two weeks: if mining supply stays weak while oil and manufacturing demand stays firm, the retail surplus, not the interbank volume, is the number that will tell us the dollar cushion is thinning.

TICGL/TERI reading of the Bank of Tanzania weekly data, October 2026

07 — TICGL & Your DecisionsWhat This Week's Market Means for Importers, Exporters, Investors and Lenders

The weekly market data matter most when they feed a decision: pricing an import contract, timing an export receipt, setting a project's FX assumptions or sizing a shilling funding line. TICGL (Tanzania Investment and Consultant Group Ltd), with its research arm TERI, turns these readings into decision tools: market research and economic intelligence, feasibility and financial models with FX and interest-rate sensitivities, and market-entry support.

Importers (oil, manufacturing, trade)

This week's rising dollar sales to oil and manufacturing sectors show the demand you share the market with.
Month-end timing of settlements and sterling or yen exposure matter this week.

Exporters (mining, agriculture, tourism)

Mining purchases fell sharply while agriculture and tourism stayed steady.
Timing of conversion and the 0.14% weekly move are part of margin planning.

Investors and treasuries

Short bills yield 3.5–3.6% against 6.4–6.6% in interbank lending.
The 20-year bond auction on 28 October is the next pricing signal.

Lenders and project sponsors

FX assumptions in a financial model should be stress-tested against rate drift and the sales-to-purchases ratio.
Shilling funding costs tracked by the WAR relative to the CBR.

Market research & economic intelligence

Recurring weekly and monthly reads of the Bank of Tanzania data series, with sector and policy interpretation, tailored to your exposures.

Feasibility & financial modelling

Models built to withstand a lender's review, with FX path, interest-rate and demand scenarios, DSCR, NPV and IRR.

Market entry & setup

Entry-mode strategy, company registration, incentive certificates and approvals, with currency and funding structure planned from the start.

Talk to TICGL/TERI

Request a briefing on this week's FX and money-market data for your business, or a scoping call for a feasibility, market-entry or market-research study.

What We Do →TICGL Markets →TERI Research →Book a consultation →✉️ economist@ticgl.com

08 - Sources & AssumptionsMethod, Assumptions and Data Notes

Basis

Source report. Bank of Tanzania, Domestic Financial Markets Weekly Report, 19–23 October 2026 (six pages: foreign exchange, money market, government securities). Calculations. Net retail positions, sector swings, multiples, per-day and per-week averages, cumulative series, share-of-month figures and the month-average net pace are TICGL/TERI arithmetic on the Bank's published figures. Limitations. One week of data; the report gives IFEM turnover without direction or counterparties.

Assumptions and reconciliation notes

Item	Treatment on this page
Purchases and sales in retail FX	Read as the banks' purchases of dollars from customers (dollar supply) and sales of dollars to customers (dollar demand); "net" is purchases minus sales.
Previous week trading days	The Bank's IFEM chart for 12–16 October has no bar for 14 October and the IBCM chart shows four daily observations; 14 October is a public holiday (Nyerere Day), which is TICGL/TERI context, not stated in the report. Per-day comparisons use four days for last week.
Monthly IFEM series	Values read in order from the Bank's Chart 3 (January 2024 to October 2026, 34 bars). The October 2026 bar is treated as month to date, which is an assumption.
2024, 2025 and 2026 averages	Sums of the monthly bars: 2024 USD 611.1m (avg 50.9m); 2025 USD 1,183.1m (avg 98.6m); 2026 January–September USD 1,369.6m (avg 152.2m). Weekly pace = monthly average ÷ 4.345.
Month-average retail net	The Bank states past-month daily averages of USD 64.31m purchases and USD 61.48m sales; the net of USD 2.83m a day is multiplied by five for a weekly pace of about USD 14.15m. The report does not say how many days the month covers.
Auction 1209 sign convention	The Bank prints "under/oversubscribed" as offered minus tendered; this page shows tendered minus offered.
Registered clients by year	Fiscal-year labels for Chart 9 are inferred (15 bars ending with the current year); only the current-year 4,015 and the total 35,517 are stated in text.
Not charted	The monthly retail FX turnover (Chart 4), the daily retail moving average (Chart 5) and the sovereign yield curve (Chart 10) are not reproduced because their values are not given in the report's text. The T-bill yields by tenor are used instead.
Rounding	The Ugandan shilling's change (−5.79%) is as published; two-decimal rates (0.65 and 0.61) imply a different figure. Totals may differ from component sums by rounding.

Bank of Tanzania, Domestic Financial Markets Weekly Report, 19–23 October 2026 (Tables 1–5, Charts 1–10).
TICGL/TERI analysis and calculations on the above.

09 - Quick AnswersFrequently Asked Questions

How much did Tanzania's interbank foreign exchange market (IFEM) turnover rise in the week to 23 October 2026?

IFEM turnover rose to USD 60.80 million from USD 19.70 million the week before, an increase of USD 41.10 million, or about 209 percent, roughly 3.1 times. The previous week also appears to have had only four trading days, but even per trading day the rise is about 2.5 times.

Did the Tanzanian shilling weaken because of the IFEM surge?

Only slightly. The shilling closed at TZS 2,636.74 per US dollar, up 0.14 percent from TZS 2,633.12, so the tripling of interbank volume was absorbed with almost no price move.

Was the IFEM jump caused by oil and energy or mining flows?

The retail data are consistent with both playing a role, though the weekly report does not identify IFEM counterparties. Mining dollar purchases by banks fell about 60 percent from USD 65.77 million to USD 26.08 million, while oil and energy dollar sales rose about 21 percent from USD 57.06 million to USD 69.06 million.

Does the surge signal a dollar shortage in Tanzania?

Not on the evidence in the report. Retail banks still bought more dollars (USD 302.69 million) than they sold (USD 272.99 million), a net surplus of USD 29.70 million. But that surplus was only a quarter of the previous week's USD 121.35 million, so the cushion is thinner.

What happened to interest rates in the interbank cash market?

The 7-day interbank cash market weighted average rate closed at 6.59 percent, down from 6.68 percent, and averaged 6.42 percent for the week, 17 basis points above the Central Bank Rate of 6.25 percent and inside the 4.75 to 7.75 percent corridor.

What were the results of Treasury bill auction 1209?

On 21 October 2026 the Bank of Tanzania allotted TZS 360.90 billion against TZS 457.58 billion tendered. Weighted average yields were 3.5379 percent for 35 days, 3.6357 percent for 91 days, 5.5712 percent for 182 days and 6.1342 percent for 364 days. Banks took 100 percent of the allotment.

What should businesses and investors watch next?

Watch whether weekly IFEM volume stays above the 2026 pace of about USD 35 million, whether the retail net dollar surplus keeps shrinking, mining purchases and oil sales by banks, the 7-day interbank rate against the 6.25 percent policy rate, and the 28 October 20-year Treasury bond auction.

Muhtasari

Muhtasari kwa Kiswahili

Soko la fedha za kigeni kati ya benki (IFEM) limeongezeka mara tatu kwa wiki moja: kutoka USD milioni 19.70 hadi USD milioni 60.80. Katika wiki ya tarehe 19 hadi 23 Oktoba 2026, shilingi ilifunga kwa TZS 2,636.74 kwa dola moja, ikipungua thamani kwa asilimia 0.14 tu kutoka TZS 2,633.12. Yaani, kiasi cha biashara kiliongezeka sana lakini bei ilibadilika kidogo mno. Uchambuzi huu wa TICGL/TERI unatumia ripoti ya wiki ya Benki Kuu ya Tanzania (BoT) kueleza kilichotokea.

Ongezeko lilikuwa kubwa na lilijikita mwishoni mwa wiki: Jumatatu USD milioni 7.60, Jumanne 4.30, kisha Jumatano 17.60, Alhamisi 12.20 na Ijumaa 19.10. Siku tatu za mwisho zilibeba takriban asilimia 80 ya wiki nzima. Wiki iliyotangulia ilionekana kuwa na siku nne za biashara (tarehe 14 Oktoba ni sikukuu ya Nyerere), lakini hata kwa wastani wa siku, ongezeko ni takriban mara 2.5.

Je, ni mtiririko mkubwa wa mitaji au biashara kubwa? Ripoti haitoi wahusika wa IFEM, kwa hiyo hatuwezi kuthibitisha. Takwimu za rejareja zinaonyesha chanzo kinachowezekana zaidi: wiki iliyotangulia benki zilinunua dola nyingi sana kutoka kwa wateja (ziada halisi ya USD milioni 121.35), na wiki hii ziada hiyo ilishuka hadi USD milioni 29.70 (upungufu wa asilimia 75.5). Benki zilizokuwa na dola nyingi zilihitaji kufanya biashara kidogo kati yao; nafasi zilipotofautiana, biashara kati ya benki ilipanda.

Uhusiano na Mafuta na Nishati (Oil & Energy) na Madini (Mining): Ununuzi wa dola wa sekta ya Madini ulishuka kwa asilimia 60.3 (USD milioni 65.77 hadi 26.08), ukiwa sababu kubwa zaidi ya kupungua kwa ziada halisi (USD milioni 41.04 kati ya 91.65). Mauzo ya dola kwa sekta ya Mafuta na Nishati yalipanda asilimia 21.0 (USD milioni 57.06 hadi 69.06), na Viwanda (Manufacturing) asilimia 33.1. Kwa ujumla, upande wa usambazaji wa dola ulidhoofika na upande wa mahitaji uliimarika.

Je, ni shinikizo la kutoa au kuingiza dola? Ni mabadiliko kuelekea mahitaji ya dola ikilinganishwa na wiki iliyopita, lakini si uhaba. Benki bado zilinunua dola nyingi (USD milioni 302.69) kuliko zilivyouza (272.99), na shilingi ilisogea kwa asilimia 0.14 tu. Kiashiria cha kufuatilia ni kama ziada hiyo itaendelea kupungua na kuwa hasi.

Soko la fedha la shilingi: Riba ya siku 7 ya soko la fedha kati ya benki (IBCM) ilifunga kwa asilimia 6.59 (kutoka 6.68), wastani wa wiki 6.42, ambao ni pointi 17 juu ya Riba ya Benki Kuu (CBR) ya asilimia 6.25 na ndani ya ukanda wa asilimia 4.75 hadi 7.75. BoT iliingiza TZS bilioni 774.96 kupitia Reverse Repo (wiki iliyopita bilioni 892.50). Dhamana za Serikali: mnada wa hati fungani za muda mfupi (Na. 1209, tarehe 21 Oktoba) uligawa TZS bilioni 360.90; mavuno yalikuwa asilimia 3.54 (siku 35), 3.64 (siku 91), 5.57 (siku 182) na 6.13 (siku 364); benki zilichukua asilimia 100. Mnada ujao ni Jumatano 28 Oktoba 2026 (hatifungani ya miaka 20).

Hitimisho: Kuongezeka mara tatu kwa IFEM ni ishara ya benki kugawana upya dola baada ya ziada ya wateja kupungua, si dalili ya uhaba wa dola. Wiki mbili zijazo zitaonyesha kama ni hali ya muda au mwelekeo mpya.

IFEM: USD milioni 19.70 hadi 60.80 (mara 3.1) · USD/TZS: 2,636.74 (+0.14%)
Ziada halisi ya dola rejareja: USD milioni 121.35 hadi 29.70 · Madini −60.3% · Mafuta na Nishati (mauzo) +21.0%
IBCM asilimia 6.59 · CBR asilimia 6.25 · Reverse Repo TZS bilioni 774.96

Chanzo: Benki Kuu ya Tanzania, Domestic Financial Markets Weekly Report (19–23 Oktoba 2026); mahesabu ya TICGL/TERI. Kwa maelezo zaidi: economist@ticgl.com.

Scope

Prepared by TERI for research and strategic-information purposes; it is not investment, legal, tax or financial advice. The data cover customers' dealings with commercial banks over one week. "Purchases" are read as dollars banks bought from customers (dollar supply) and "sales" as dollars banks sold to customers (dollar demand). The report does not explain sector moves, so the drivers on this page are hypotheses ranked by how well the data fit them.

00 — OverviewExecutive Summary: A Flat Total Hiding a Big Change in Who Supplies Dollars

Retail FX covers dollars that commercial banks buy from and sell to their customers. A flat total says little; the sector mix says a lot. Last week Mining was the second-largest source of dollars to banks (USD 65.77 million of purchases, 18.1% of supply). This week it was fourth (USD 26.08 million, 8.6%). Agriculture, Tourism and Trade filled much of the gap. On the demand side, Oil & Energy increased its draw to USD 69.06 million, now 25.3% of all dollars banks sold, and Manufacturing rose to USD 37.24 million. The net effect was a retail dollar surplus (purchases minus sales) that fell from USD 121.35 million to USD 29.70 million.

Mining turnover

−USD 38.34m

the largest single sector move; 131% of the total fall

Oil & Energy turnover

+USD 15.77m

biggest gain; sales +USD 12.00m

Retail turnover ex-mining

+1.7%

USD 530.71m to USD 539.84m

Top-3 sector share

57.5%

Trade, Oil & Energy, Agriculture (54.3% a week earlier)

What Moved Total Turnover: Contribution by Sector

Change in turnover, USD million, this week minus last (total −USD 29.21m). Source: Bank of Tanzania, Table 2; TICGL/TERI calc.

Mining vs Everything Else

Retail turnover, USD million. The fall in the total is entirely mining. Source: Bank of Tanzania, Table 2; TICGL/TERI calc.

Key findings

Mining is the story of the week. Its turnover fell by USD 38.34 million, more than the entire USD 29.21 million fall in the market. Almost all of it was banks buying fewer dollars from mining customers (−USD 39.69 million, −60.3%).
Oil & Energy is the main gainer on the demand side. Turnover rose USD 15.77 million; banks' dollar sales to the sector rose USD 12.00 million (+21.0%). It is the market's biggest net user of dollars (net −USD 57.57 million).
Construction (machinery and equipment) also fell sharply, from USD 39.17 million to USD 23.42 million (−40.2%), the second-largest drop after Mining and easy to overlook.
Trade and Agriculture hold the base. Trade is still the largest sector at USD 172.34 million (30%), but it flipped from net supplier (+USD 13.84 million) to slight net user (−USD 4.04 million). Agriculture's net supply stayed near USD 50 million and its share of dollar supply rose from 17.3% to 21.2%.
The dollar cushion thinned but did not vanish. The retail market is still in net surplus (+USD 29.70 million). Illustratively it would take about 11% more dollar sales, about 10% fewer purchases, or a 43% rise in oil and energy sales alone to erase it.
The shilling has barely reacted: TZS 2,636.74 per dollar, +0.14%. The risk is persistence: weak mining supply and firm oil and manufacturing demand repeating for several weeks.

Bottom line

The retail dollar market is more dependent on fewer sectors than it looks: Trade, Agriculture and Tourism now carry the supply side while Oil & Energy and Manufacturing carry the demand side. Mining's swing, large and lumpy, can move the whole market's balance in a week. This week the shilling absorbed it. The next tabs explain the sector map, the likely drivers, and how big a shock would need to be to push the shilling.

01 — The Sector MapWho Supplies Dollars, Who Uses Them, and How the Shares Moved

Sector	Previous week (USD m)			This week (USD m)			Change in turnover, USD m	Change, %
Sector	Purch.	Sales	Total	Purch.	Sales	Total	Change in turnover, USD m	Change, %
Trade	97.56	83.72	181.28	84.15	88.19	172.34	−8.94	−4.9
Oil & Energy	7.73	57.06	64.78	11.49	69.06	80.55	+15.77	+24.3
Agriculture	62.74	10.27	73.01	64.28	13.81	78.09	+5.08	+7.0
Manufacturing	10.29	27.99	38.28	13.90	37.24	51.15	+12.87	+33.6
Individual retail customers	25.38	15.84	41.22	18.82	17.20	36.02	−5.20	−12.6
Mining	65.77	8.41	74.18	26.08	9.76	35.84	−38.34	−51.7
Tourism	24.81	2.07	26.88	28.55	3.92	32.48	+5.60	+20.8
Transport & Communication	29.80	6.03	35.84	21.16	10.12	31.29	−4.55	−12.7
Construction (mach. & equip.)	19.44	19.73	39.17	9.92	13.50	23.42	−15.75	−40.2
Social services	10.44	5.31	15.75	11.58	5.56	17.15	+1.40	+8.9
NGOs	9.05	2.37	11.42	12.01	0.42	12.43	+1.01	+8.8
Breweries / Beverages	0.13	2.96	3.09	0.75	4.19	4.93	+1.84	+59.5
Total	363.12	241.77	604.89	302.69	272.99	575.68	−29.21	−4.8

Table 1.1. Weekly commercial banks' retail FX by sector. Source: Bank of Tanzania, Table 2; changes and percentages are TICGL/TERI calculations.

Where Banks Get Their Dollars: Share of Purchases

Percent of total dollar purchases from customers. Mining's share of supply fell from 18.1% to 8.6%. TICGL/TERI calc.

Who Uses Banks' Dollars: Share of Sales

Percent of total dollar sales to customers. Oil and Energy's share of demand rose from 23.6% to 25.3%. TICGL/TERI calc.

Change in Supply vs Change in Demand, by Sector

USD million change in purchases (supply) and sales (demand), this week minus last. Mining is the supply story; Oil, Manufacturing and Trade the demand story

Net Dollar Direction as a Share of Sector Turnover

(Purchases − sales) ÷ turnover, %. +100% = pure supplier of dollars; −100% = pure user. Mining and Agriculture are suppliers; Oil & Energy is the user. TICGL/TERI calc.

Concentration

The three biggest sectors by turnover (Trade, Oil & Energy, Agriculture) made up 57.5% of the week, up from 54.3% for the top three the week before (Trade, Mining, Agriculture). On the supply side, Trade, Agriculture and Tourism provided 58.5% of dollars bought this week, against 51.0% a week earlier, so the supply base became more reliant on fewer, steadier sectors after mining pulled back.

02 — Mining, Oil & the RestReading the Sectors One by One

Mining: Purchases, Sales and Net

USD million. Banks' purchases from mining customers fell 60.3%; sales barely moved. Source: Bank of Tanzania, Table 2

Oil & Energy: Purchases, Sales and Net

USD million. Dollar sales rose 21.0% to USD 69.06m; the net draw deepened to USD 57.57m. Source: Bank of Tanzania, Table 2

Mining: lumpy supply

Mining's net inflow to banks fell from USD 57.36 million to USD 16.32 million. Mining firms convert export receipts in batches, so a single week can swing sharply for reasons of timing: shipment dates, when proceeds are repatriated, and how long firms hold dollar balances. Mining remained a net supplier, but at 45% of its turnover versus 77% a week earlier. In shilling terms, the USD 41.04 million drop in mining's net position is about TZS 108 billion at TZS 2,636.74.

Oil & Energy: the steady drain

Oil and energy buys dollars almost one way: sales to the sector were 86% of its turnover this week. The USD 69.06 million bought is about 25% of all dollars banks sold. Because fuel imports are priced in dollars and needed regardless of the exchange rate, this demand is hard to defer, so it tends to rise when supply thins. The report gives no volume or price breakdown, so it cannot separate more fuel imported from higher fuel prices.

Trade and Agriculture: The Anchors

USD million. Trade's purchases fell and sales rose, flipping it to a small net user; Agriculture's net supply held near USD 50m. Source: Bank of Tanzania, Table 2

Construction, Manufacturing and Transport

USD million, total turnover. Construction fell 40.2% and Transport 12.7%; Manufacturing rose 33.6%. Source: Bank of Tanzania, Table 2

Sector	What changed	Why it matters
Trade	Purchases −USD 13.41m, sales +USD 4.47m; net +13.84 to −4.04	Largest sector and the biggest swing in net after Mining; importers and exporters now offset each other.
Agriculture	Purchases +USD 1.54m to 64.28m; sales +3.54m	Stable dollar supplier, now 21.2% of supply.
Tourism	Purchases +USD 3.74m to 28.55m (+15.1%)	Third-largest supplier by share of purchases (9.4%), ahead of Mining this week.
Manufacturing	Sales +USD 9.25m (+33.1%) to 37.24m	Second-largest net user of dollars after Oil & Energy; ties to input and equipment imports.
Transport & Communication	Purchases −USD 8.64m; net +23.77 to +11.04	A quiet source of supply that halved.
Construction	Purchases −9.52m, sales −6.23m; total −40.2%	Both sides fell; may reflect project or equipment-payment timing.
Individual retail customers	Purchases −6.56m; net +9.54 to +1.62	Household supply of dollars nearly disappeared as net.

Table 2.1. TICGL/TERI reading of Table 2 of the Bank's weekly report.

03 — What Drives the ShiftsHypotheses, Evidence and What Would Confirm Them

The Bank's report publishes the flows, not the reasons. The table below sets out the most plausible drivers for each major shift, what in the data supports them, and what to look for next week. "Fit" rates how well the published data support each driver, not the probability that it is true.

Shift	Candidate driver	What the data show	What would confirm it	Fit
Mining purchases −60%	Export-receipt timing	Mining sales hardly changed (+USD 1.35m); only purchases fell, as if a batch of receipts was converted the week before.	Mining purchases back toward USD 40–65m within 1–2 weeks	Strong
	Firms holding dollars longer	A fall in sales to the bank with no matching rise elsewhere is consistent with holding balances; not visible in this report.	Foreign-currency deposit data in the monthly review	Possible
	Lower mineral export volumes or prices	One week cannot show a price or volume trend.	Export values in the next monthly review	Not testable here
Oil & Energy sales +21%	Import settlement and month-end payments	Sales rose through a week ending near month-end; the demand is concentrated in one sector.	Sales stay above USD 65m into November	Strong
Oil & Energy sales +21%	Higher import bill or stock rebuilding	Cannot separate volume from price in the data.	Fuel import data; pump-price announcements	Possible
Manufacturing sales +33%	Input and equipment imports	Sales +USD 9.25m, purchases +USD 3.61m; classic user profile.	Persistence over two weeks	Strong
Trade net flips to a user	Importers' payments rising while exporters' receipts fall	Purchases −USD 13.41m; sales +USD 4.47m.	Trade net stays negative	Partial
Construction −40%	Project payment timing	Both purchases and sales fell, which points to fewer transactions and not a one-way move.	Rebound next week	Partial
Agriculture and Tourism steady or up	Seasonal export and visitor inflows	Agriculture purchases +USD 1.54m; Tourism +USD 3.74m. Seasonal patterns suggest autumn is within the main crop-marketing and early high-season period (general context, not shown in the report).	Continued purchases in coming weeks	Consistent

Table 3.1. TICGL/TERI assessment from one week of data. Seasonal remarks are general context and should be verified against export and arrivals data.

Supply Concentration: Share of Dollar Purchases From the Three Biggest Suppliers

Percent of total purchases. Trade, Agriculture and Tourism provided more than half of supply this week, and Mining slipped from second to fourth. TICGL/TERI calc.

Supply is lumpy, demand is sticky

The week's pattern shows an asymmetry that matters for the shilling: supply from export sectors (especially Mining) can drop by half in a week, while demand from fuel, manufacturing inputs and trade rises or holds. When both happen at once the net surplus falls quickly; when supply returns it can rebuild just as fast, as last week's USD 121 million shows.

04 — Impact on the ShillingFrom Sector Flows to the Exchange Rate: Channels, Size and Shock Arithmetic

The shilling closed the week at TZS 2,636.74 per US dollar, a 0.14% depreciation from TZS 2,633.12 (TZS 3.62). That is small. The question is whether the sector shifts could turn into something larger, so this tab traces the channels and sizes the shocks.

1 · Supply dropsMining and other exporters sell fewer dollars to banks; net surplus shrinks.

2 · Demand holds or risesOil, manufacturing and trade keep buying dollars to settle imports.

3 · Banks rebalanceBanks short of dollars buy from banks with spare ones; interbank (IFEM) turnover rises.

4 · Price adjusts if the gap persistsIf surplus turns negative, banks bid up dollars and the shilling weakens; importers pass costs on.

4.1 What happened this week

The shilling depreciated 0.14% against the dollar. Sterling and yen moves were larger, but those mostly reflect those currencies' own moves against the dollar.
The retail market stayed in net surplus (+USD 29.70 million), so banks did not need to buy dollars from the central bank to meet customer demand.
The interbank cash rate stayed within 6.16%–6.59% every day, against a policy rate of 6.25% and a corridor of 4.75%–7.75%, so shilling liquidity did not tighten.
IFEM turnover rose to USD 60.80 million: the visible footprint of banks rebalancing, covered in our companion IFEM analysis.

4.2 How big a shock would erase the surplus?

The surplus of USD 29.70 million is the cushion between dollars coming in and dollars going out through banks. The table asks how large a single move would have to be to remove it, holding everything else equal. These are arithmetic illustrations, not forecasts.

Single change	Base this week (USD m)	Change needed (USD m)	As % of base
Total dollar sales rise	272.99	+29.70	+10.9%
Total dollar purchases fall	302.69	−29.70	−9.8%
Oil & Energy sales rise	69.06	+29.70	+43.0%
Manufacturing sales rise	37.24	+29.70	+79.8%
Trade purchases fall	84.15	−29.70	−35.3%
Agriculture purchases fall	64.28	−29.70	−46.2%
Mining purchases fall to zero	26.08	−26.08 (maximum)	−100% is not enough

Table 4.1. TICGL/TERI arithmetic on the Bank's Table 2 totals. Mining alone can no longer erase the surplus because most of its supply has already gone; the risk now comes from broad-based demand growth or a fall in the steadier suppliers.

Size of Change Needed to Erase the Net Surplus

Percent change in the base flow (negative: purchases fall; positive: sales rise). Mining cannot do it alone. TICGL/TERI calc.

Net Surplus: Three Illustrative Cases

USD million, from this week's USD 29.70m. Oil sales +10% adds USD 6.9m of demand; mining returning to last week's purchases adds USD 39.7m; both together. TICGL/TERI illustration

4.3 The shilling value of the sector swings

Sector Swing in Net Dollar Position, in TZS Billion

Change in net position (USD m) × TZS 2,636.74. Mining's loss of net supply is about TZS 108bn in one week. TICGL/TERI calc.

What the 0.14% cost buyers

The USD 3.62 rise in the dollar price cost customers who bought dollars from banks roughly TZS 1.0 billion more across the week's USD 272.99 million of sales (about TZS 0.25 billion for Oil & Energy's USD 69.06 million). The number is small; its value is in showing that for sectors that buy about 25% of the market's dollars, each 1% move in the rate adds about TZS 1.8 billion a week to the fuel import bill at the current volume (USD 69.06m × TZS 26.4).

Why the pass-through matters

Oil and energy and manufacturing buy dollars to import goods whose shilling cost passes into fuel, transport and input prices. The sectors that supply dollars (Mining, Agriculture, Tourism) benefit when the shilling weakens. A depreciation therefore moves income between these groups as well as affecting prices.

Shock calculator: what happens to the net surplus?

Starting point is this week (net +USD 29.70m). Enter percent changes to selected flows; the page shows the new net position and what it is worth in TZS billion at TZS 2,636.74. Mining purchases cannot fall below zero.

Mining purchases, % change

Oil & Energy sales, % change

Manufacturing sales, % change

Agriculture purchases, % change

Trade purchases, % change

USD/TZS rate

New net position

–

purchases − sales, USD m

Change from this week

–

USD m

Worth in shillings

–

new net position, TZS bn

Reading

–

05 — Outlook & TICGLWhat to Watch, and What It Means for Your Business

5.1 Three paths for the next few weeks

The paths below are illustrative and rest on one week of data. No probabilities are attached.

Path	Mining purchases	Oil, Manufacturing, Trade demand	Net surplus and shilling
A. Mining rebounds	Back toward USD 40–65m	Stable	Net surplus rebuilds above USD 30m; shilling steady
B. Mining stays low, demand firm	Stays near USD 26m	Oil sales stay near USD 70m; manufacturing near USD 37m	Net surplus thin but positive; mild shilling weakness; IFEM stays active
C. Broad demand squeeze	Stays low	Sales rise 10% or more across oil, manufacturing and trade; steady suppliers (Agriculture, Tourism) soften	Net surplus turns negative; faster depreciation; more official operations likely

Table 5.1. Illustrative paths, TICGL/TERI.

5.2 Weekly indicators to track

Indicator	This week	Signal to watch
Mining purchases	USD 26.08m	Rebound toward USD 65m, or a second weak week
Oil & Energy sales	USD 69.06m	Above USD 70m again, or back below USD 60m
Net retail surplus	USD 29.70m	Falls below zero
Share of supply from Trade, Agriculture, Tourism	58.5%	Falls if steady suppliers soften
Sales ÷ purchases	0.90	Approaches or exceeds 1.0
USD/TZS weekly change	+0.14%	Persistent moves above 0.5% a week

Importers

Oil, manufacturing and trade importers compete for the same dollars.
Plan settlement dates around month-end and the sector's rising demand.

Exporters

Timing of conversion matters: mining purchases swung USD 40m in a week.
Agriculture and Tourism supply is steadier.

Banks and treasuries

Track sector net positions, not just totals.
Interbank volumes will follow retail surplus swings.

Project sponsors and lenders

Stress-test FX assumptions in models against a thinner dollar cushion.
Match revenue and cost currencies where possible.

Talk to TICGL/TERI

Request a briefing on sector FX flows for your business, or a scoping call for a feasibility, market-entry or market-research study with FX and pricing scenarios.

What We Do →TICGL Markets →TERI Research →Book a consultation →✉️ economist@ticgl.com

The shilling did not move this week, but the dollar cushion did. Watch Mining's purchases and Oil & Energy's sales: they are the two numbers that decide whether a thin surplus stays positive.

TICGL/TERI reading of the Bank of Tanzania weekly data, October 2026

06 - Sources & AssumptionsMethod, Assumptions and Data Notes

Basis

Source report. Bank of Tanzania, Domestic Financial Markets Weekly Report, 19–23 October 2026 (Table 1, Table 2, Sections 1.1–1.3, 2.1). Calculations. Shares, changes, net positions, contributions, shock sizes and shilling conversions are TICGL/TERI arithmetic on the Bank's published figures. Limitations. One week; sector totals are customers' dealings with commercial banks; the report does not state reasons for sector moves.

Assumptions and notes

Item	Treatment on this page
Purchases and sales	Read as banks' purchases of dollars from customers (supply) and sales of dollars to customers (demand). Net = purchases − sales.
Totals and rounding	Sector totals follow the Bank's published column; some differ from purchases + sales by 0.01 due to rounding.
Shilling conversions	USD amounts × TZS 2,636.74 (23 October indicative mean rate).
Ex-mining turnover	Total minus Mining: USD 604.89m − 74.18m = 530.71m last week; USD 575.68m − 35.84m = 539.84m this week.
Supply shares	Trade, Agriculture and Tourism: (97.56 + 62.74 + 24.81) ÷ 363.12 = 51.0% last week; (84.15 + 64.28 + 28.55) ÷ 302.69 = 58.5% this week.
Oil and fuel import sensitivity	Illustrative: USD 69.06m of weekly dollar sales × 1% of TZS 2,636.74 = TZS 1.82bn. It assumes unchanged volumes.
Seasonal remarks	General context only; not in the Bank's report.

Bank of Tanzania, Domestic Financial Markets Weekly Report, 19–23 October 2026.
TICGL/TERI analysis and calculations on the above.

07 - Quick AnswersFrequently Asked Questions

How did Tanzania's retail FX turnover change in the week to 23 October 2026?

Total retail foreign exchange turnover fell 4.8 percent to USD 575.68 million from USD 604.89 million. Excluding mining, turnover actually rose about 1.7 percent, from USD 530.71 million to USD 539.84 million.

How much did mining turnover fall in retail FX?

Mining turnover fell 51.7 percent, from USD 74.18 million to USD 35.84 million. The whole fall came from bank purchases of dollars from mining customers, which dropped from USD 65.77 million to USD 26.08 million.

Why did oil and energy FX turnover rise?

Oil and energy turnover rose 24.3 percent to USD 80.55 million, mostly because banks sold USD 69.06 million to the sector, up from USD 57.06 million. The report does not give the reason; likely candidates are import settlement timing and month-end payments.

Is the retail market still in net dollar surplus?

Yes. Banks bought USD 302.69 million from customers and sold USD 272.99 million, a net surplus of USD 29.70 million, down 75.5 percent from USD 121.35 million the week before.

What would it take to erase the net dollar surplus?

Illustratively, a rise of about 11 percent in total dollar sales, a fall of about 10 percent in total purchases, or a rise of about 43 percent in oil and energy sales alone. Even if mining purchases fell to zero the surplus would not disappear.

What did the sector shifts mean for the shilling?

So far very little. The shilling closed at TZS 2,636.74 per dollar, a 0.14 percent depreciation. The risk is not this week's move but whether weak mining supply and firm oil and manufacturing demand persist.

Muhtasari

Muhtasari kwa Kiswahili

Jumla ya Retail FX ilipungua kidogo, lakini sekta zimebadilika sana. Katika wiki ya tarehe 19 hadi 23 Oktoba 2026, mauzo na ununuzi wa dola kati ya benki za biashara na wateja ulishuka kutoka USD milioni 604.89 hadi 575.68 (asilimia 4.8). Ukiondoa sekta ya Madini, soko liliongezeka kwa takriban asilimia 1.7. Mabadiliko ya sekta ndiyo habari halisi.

Madini (Mining) yalishuka sana: kiasi cha jumla kilishuka kutoka USD milioni 74.18 hadi 35.84 (asilimia 51.7). Sababu ni benki kununua dola chache kutoka kwa wateja wa madini: kutoka USD milioni 65.77 hadi 26.08 (asilimia 60.3). Mauzo ya dola kwa sekta hii hayakubadilika karibu hata kidogo. Anguko la Madini peke yake (USD milioni 38.34) ni kubwa kuliko anguko lote la soko (29.21).

Mafuta na Nishati (Oil & Energy) yaliongezeka: kutoka USD milioni 64.78 hadi 80.55 (asilimia 24.3). Benki ziliuza dola nyingi zaidi kwa sekta hii (USD milioni 57.06 hadi 69.06), ikiwa sasa karibu robo ya dola zote zinazouzwa. Viwanda (Manufacturing) pia viliongezeka asilimia 33.6, na Ujenzi (Construction) ulishuka asilimia 40.2.

Biashara (Trade) na Kilimo (Agriculture) bado ni nguzo: Biashara ni sekta kubwa zaidi (USD milioni 172.34), lakini ilibadilika kutoka kuwa msambazaji halisi wa dola (+13.84) hadi mtumiaji mdogo (−4.04). Kilimo kinaendelea kusambaza takriban USD milioni 50 kwa jumla halisi, na sehemu yake ya ugavi wa dola imepanda kutoka asilimia 17.3 hadi 21.2.

Nini kinaendesha mabadiliko haya? Ripoti haitoi sababu, kwa hiyo haya ni dhana za TICGL/TERI: (1) muda wa kupokea mapato ya mauzo ya nje kwa Madini; (2) malipo ya uagizaji wa mafuta na ya mwisho wa mwezi; (3) uagizaji wa malighafi na vifaa kwa viwanda; (4) msimu wa mauzo ya Kilimo na Utalii. Ugavi wa dola kutoka sekta za mauzo ya nje hubadilika-badilika, wakati mahitaji ya mafuta na malighafi ni magumu kuahirishwa.

Athari kwa shilingi: Ziada halisi ya dola ilishuka kutoka USD milioni 121.35 hadi 29.70 (asilimia 75.5), lakini bado ni chanya. Shilingi ilifunga TZS 2,636.74 kwa dola, ikipungua thamani kwa asilimia 0.14 tu. Kwa hesabu ya mfano, ili ziada hiyo iishe ingehitajika ongezeko la takriban asilimia 11 la mauzo ya dola, au kupungua kwa asilimia 10 la ununuzi, au ongezeko la asilimia 43 la mauzo kwa Mafuta na Nishati peke yake. Hatari kuu ni kama hali hii itaendelea kwa wiki kadhaa.

Hitimisho: Soko la dola la rejareja linategemea sekta chache: Biashara, Kilimo na Utalii upande wa ugavi; Mafuta na Nishati na Viwanda upande wa mahitaji. Fuatilia ununuzi wa Madini na mauzo ya Mafuta na Nishati kila wiki.

Retail FX: USD milioni 604.89 hadi 575.68 (−4.8%) · bila Madini: +1.7%
Madini: 74.18 hadi 35.84 · Mafuta na Nishati: 64.78 hadi 80.55 · Ujenzi: 39.17 hadi 23.42
Ziada halisi ya dola: 121.35 hadi 29.70 · USD/TZS 2,636.74 (+0.14%)

Chanzo: Benki Kuu ya Tanzania, Domestic Financial Markets Weekly Report (19–23 Oktoba 2026); mahesabu ya TICGL/TERI. Kwa maelezo zaidi: economist@ticgl.com.

Disclaimer & scope

Prepared by TERI for research and strategic-information purposes only. It is not investment, legal, tax or financial advice and does not state the position of the Bank of Tanzania or the Government. All sector figures come from the Bank of Tanzania Domestic Financial Markets Weekly Report for 12-16 October 2026; figures marked "TICGL calc." are our arithmetic on those numbers. The report does not define "purchases" and "sales" in its sector table: we read purchases as dollars banks bought from customers (supply of dollars) and sales as dollars banks sold to customers (use of dollars). Price, import, external-balance and growth evidence in Tab 4 comes from the Bank of Tanzania Monthly Economic Review, September 2026 (data to August 2026). The link from weekly dollar flows to those outcomes is analytical, not a measured causal effect. One week of flow data is a short window: patterns may not persist.

00 — OverviewExecutive Summary

Tanzania's dollar market has a simple structure in the week to 16 October 2026. Two commodity sectors, mining and agriculture, sold banks far more dollars than they bought back. A different group of sectors, led by oil and energy and manufacturing, did the opposite. Trade, the biggest sector by turnover, swung from heavy net buying to small net selling. The result is a banking system that bought USD 121.35 million more than it sold, a shilling that moved only 0.07% to TZS 2,633.12 per dollar, and a question: how dependent is that stability on two sectors?

Mining net supply

USD 57.36 m

bought 65.77, sold 8.41

Agriculture net supply

USD 52.47 m

purchases up 62.4% w/w

Oil & energy net need

USD 49.33 m

bought 57.06, sold 7.73

Cover ratio

2.2x

1.25x the week before

Who Supplies and Who Uses the Dollars

USD million, week to 16 Oct 2026. Left bar: dollars banks bought from customers. Right bar: dollars banks sold to customers. Source: BoT Table 2

Cover Ratio: Mining and Agriculture Net Inflow vs Oil and Energy Net Need

Times covered, two weeks. Above 1.0 means the two supplying sectors more than pay the oil bill. Source: BoT Table 2; TICGL calc.

Key findings

Two sectors supplied nine tenths of the net inflow. Mining and agriculture netted USD 109.83 million, 90.5% of the banks' USD 121.35 million net purchase.
Oil and energy is the largest single net buyer. It bought USD 57.06 million, 23.6% of all dollars banks sold, and netted USD 49.33 million after selling USD 7.73 million back.
The cover is comfortable this week and thin last week. The cover was 1.25 times in the week of 5 October (USD 72.99 million against USD 58.56 million) and 2.2 times in the week of 12 October. It nearly doubled in seven days, which also shows how quickly it can move the other way.
Level and swing have different drivers. Mining and agriculture explain the level of the inflow, but trade explains 54% of the USD 185.29 million swing in net flows from the previous week (TICGL calc.).
The oil dollar bill is large next to the interbank market. Oil's net need alone is 2.5 times the entire weekly interbank FX turnover of USD 19.70 million, so it cannot be met in that market alone.
It costs real shillings every day. Oil bought about USD 11.4 million per weekday, roughly TZS 30.0 billion; each 1% shilling depreciation adds about TZS 1.5 billion a week to that purchase.
The Monthly Economic Review confirms the pressure is real. Petroleum imports rose 51.7% to USD 3,425.6 million in the year to August 2026, transport inflation is 13.8% against 1.4% a year earlier, and the current account deficit widened 45.9% to USD 2,481.8 million. Headline inflation is still 4.3%, inside the 3-5% target, and annual real growth data run to 2025 only (Tab 4).
The stress point is closer than it looks. On the latest week's numbers, mining and agriculture would have to fall 55% before the cushion over oil disappears; on the previous week's numbers, only 20%.

Bottom line

The shilling is being held steady by dollars from two commodity sectors that are spent largely by one import-heavy sector. That works as long as the flow continues, and the report gives no sign it will stop. But the cushion varied by a factor of nearly two in a single week, and the same dollar needs push on prices and costs every working day. The next four tabs show who supplies, what oil needs, how it feeds through to the economy, and where the stress points are.

01 — Who Supplies, Who UsesDollar Flows by Sector: Supply, Use and What Changed

The Bank of Tanzania's retail FX table splits every bank-customer dollar transaction by sector. Reading it as supply (dollars banks bought) and use (dollars banks sold) shows which sectors the shilling depends on. Retail turnover rose to USD 604.89 million; purchases were USD 363.12 million and sales USD 241.77 million.

Sector (USD million)	Bought by banks (supply)	Sold by banks (use)	Net, this week	Net, prior week	Change in net
Mining	65.77	8.41	+57.36	+42.33	+15.03
Agriculture	62.74	10.27	+52.47	+30.66	+21.81
Transport & Communication	29.80	6.03	+23.77	+13.21	+10.56
Tourism	24.81	2.07	+22.74	+17.68	+5.06
Trade	97.56	83.72	+13.84	-86.10	+99.94
Individual Retail Customers	25.38	15.84	+9.54	-0.45	+9.99
NGOs	9.05	2.37	+6.68	+6.45	+0.23
Social Services	10.44	5.31	+5.13	+1.96	+3.17
Constructions (Machine & Equipment)	19.44	19.73	-0.29	-0.32	+0.03
Breweries / Beverages	0.13	2.96	-2.83	-4.70	+1.87
Manufacturing	10.29	27.99	-17.70	-26.11	+8.41
Oil & Energy	7.73	57.06	-49.33	-58.56	+9.23
Total (as published)	363.12	241.77	+121.35	-63.94	+185.29

Source: Bank of Tanzania, Table 2; net and change columns are TICGL calc. Sector nets add to the published total within USD 0.05 million of rounding.

Net Dollar Position by Sector, This Week

USD million, purchases minus sales. Positive = sector supplied more dollars than it took (TICGL calc.)

Share of Dollars Supplied vs Share Used, by Sector

Percent of USD 363.12 m purchases and USD 241.77 m sales (TICGL calc.)

1.1 Net suppliers and net buyers

Eight sectors were net suppliers of dollars, together USD 191.53 million. Four were net buyers: oil and energy (USD 49.33 million), manufacturing (USD 17.70 million), breweries (USD 2.83 million) and construction (USD 0.29 million), together USD 70.15 million (TICGL calc.). Mining and agriculture alone supplied 57% of what the eight supplying sectors netted, and the net buyers are the import-intensive part of the economy: fuel, factory inputs, brewing materials and equipment.

1.2 The level and the swing have different drivers

Net flows moved by USD 185.29 million in one week, from a net sale of USD 63.94 million to a net purchase of USD 121.35 million. Mining and agriculture added USD 36.84 million to that swing (19.9%). Trade added USD 99.94 million (53.9%): it moved from net buying of USD 86.10 million to net selling of USD 13.84 million as purchases more than doubled and sales fell 35.8%. Everything else together added the remaining 26%.

What Drove the USD 185 Million Swing?

Change in net dollar position by sector, this week vs prior week, USD million (TICGL calc.)

Mining + Agriculture Net Inflow vs Oil Net Need, Two Weeks

USD million. Oil shown as a positive amount of need. Source: BoT Table 2; TICGL calc.

TICGL/TERI reading

Two separate risks sit in this table. The first is dependence: the level of the net inflow rests on mining and agriculture. The second is volatility: week to week, the swing rests on trade, where a USD 86 million net outflow one week became a USD 14 million net inflow the next. A stable shilling needs both the commodity inflow to hold and trade flows to stay near balance. The report does not show what trade flows consist of, so the cause of the trade reversal is not known from this data.

02 — Oil & Energy's AppetiteHow Big Is the Oil Sector's Dollar Demand?

Oil and energy bought USD 57.06 million from banks this week, down from USD 66.37 million, and sold back only USD 7.73 million (USD 7.81 million the week before). Sector turnover fell 12.7% to USD 64.78 million. Its net need of USD 49.33 million is below last week's USD 58.56 million but still larger than any other sector's.

Oil & Energy	Week of 5 Oct	Week of 12 Oct	Change
Dollars sold by banks to the sector (USD m)	66.37	57.06	-14.0%
Dollars bought by banks from the sector (USD m)	7.81	7.73	-1.0%
Net need (USD m)	58.56	49.33	-15.8%
Total turnover (USD m)	74.18	64.78	-12.7%
Share of all dollars sold by banks	22.2%	23.6%	+1.4 pts
Gross need per weekday (USD m, weekly / 5)	13.27	11.41	-14.0%
Gross need per weekday at 16 Oct rate (TZS bn)	n.a.	30.05
Net need at 16 Oct rate (TZS bn a week)	n.a.	129.89

Source: Bank of Tanzania, Table 2; shares, per-weekday and TZS conversions are TICGL calc. at TZS 2,633.12 per dollar (the 16 October mean rate). The oil sector's fall in sales went with a fall in turnover; the report does not say whether volumes or prices changed.

Oil & Energy: Supply, Use and Net

USD million, two weeks. Source: BoT Table 2; TICGL calc.

Daily Scale of the Dollar Flows

USD million per weekday (weekly total / 5), week to 16 Oct 2026. Source: BoT; TICGL calc.

2.1 Why oil's dollar need is a macroeconomic issue, not a sector issue

It is large against the wholesale market. Oil's net weekly need of USD 49.33 million is 2.5 times the weekly interbank FX turnover (USD 19.70 million). Mining and agriculture's net supply is 5.6 times it. The sector flows are therefore bigger than the market where banks trade among themselves to even out positions.
It is repeated every week. Oil's net need was USD 58.56 million and USD 49.33 million in the two weeks of the report: a steady drain rather than an occasional spike.
It does not offset itself. For every dollar oil takes from banks it supplies back only 14 cents (USD 7.73 million against USD 57.06 million). Trade, by contrast, supplied 34 cents per dollar taken in the prior week and USD 1.17 this week, which is why trade's net can swing both ways while oil's stays negative.
It sits alongside other import-heavy sectors. Manufacturing supplied about 37 cents for every dollar it took (USD 10.29 million against USD 27.99 million) and breweries almost nothing. Together with oil these are the structural net buyers.

What this report does not show

The weekly report covers only dollars that pass through banks in the retail market. It does not show fuel import volumes or prices, the share of fuel financed through other channels, the Bank of Tanzania's own foreign-currency operations, or the Government's dollar payments. The oil figures here are the sector's dollar use through the banking system, not the national fuel import bill. Tab 4 checks them against the Monthly Economic Review: annualised, they equal about 87% of the year-to-August petroleum import bill.

03 — Dollars to Daily ImpactHow the Oil Dollar Bill Reaches Prices and Growth

The dollar gap matters because it is paid in shillings. Each day, oil importers need dollars, banks supply them from the dollars mining and agriculture sold, and the price of the dollar sets what that fuel costs at the pump, in the truck and on the factory floor. This tab shows the chain and puts shilling numbers on its first link.

Day 0 · DollarsOil and energy needs about USD 11.4 million a weekday from banks (USD 9.9 million net of its own sales).

Day 0 · Bank positionBanks supply it from the dollars mining and agriculture sold them: about USD 22 million net per weekday.

Days · Exchange rateIf supply falls short or demand rises, the shilling weakens. Each 1% adds about TZS 0.3 billion a weekday to the oil dollar bill.

Weeks · Prices & costsDearer fuel and imports raise transport, food distribution, factory and construction costs.

Quarters · GrowthHigher costs squeeze real incomes, margins and investment, and dollar loans cost more to service.

Tab 3 shows direction and arithmetic. The weekly report has no price, inflation or GDP series; Tab 4 tests the later links against the Monthly Economic Review.

3.1 The first link in numbers: the shilling cost of the oil dollar bill

Gross, per weekday

TZS 30.0 bn

USD 11.41 m x 2,633.12

Net, per weekday

TZS 26.0 bn

USD 9.87 m net need

Gross, per week

TZS 150.2 bn

USD 57.06 m

Cost of 1% depreciation

TZS 1.5 bn/wk

about TZS 78 bn over a year at this pace

Try it: what does a weaker shilling add to the oil dollar bill?

Shilling depreciation (%)

Oil dollars bought from banks per week (USD m)

Starting rate (TZS per USD)

New rate

2,659.45

TZS per USD

Extra cost, per weekday

TZS 0.30 bn

weekly / 5

Extra cost, per week

TZS 1.50 bn

same dollars, higher rate

Extra cost, per year

TZS 78.1 bn

52 weeks, if sustained

Defaults are the report's figures: USD 57.06 million of weekly oil-sector purchases from banks at the 16 October rate. The result is the extra shillings needed to buy the same dollars, a first-round cost before any pass-through to prices.

Extra Weekly Shilling Cost Under the Four Rate Scenarios to 13 November

TZS billion, same USD 57.06 m of weekly oil purchases, vs the 16 Oct rate of 2,633.12. Rates: 2,622.60 / 2,633.12 / 2,640.50 / 2,659.56 (TICGL scenario arithmetic)

3.2 Channels to growth, from days to quarters

Channel	How it works	Who is hit first	In the weekly report	Not in it (see Tab 4)
Exchange rate	Dollar shortfall or rising oil demand weakens the shilling within days	All importers; dollar borrowers	Net flows, sector split, rate +0.07%	Daily rate path
Fuel and transport costs	A weaker shilling raises the shilling cost of the oil dollar bill, then pump prices and freight	Transport, distribution, farmers moving crops	Oil need USD 49.33 m net a week	Pump prices; import volumes (Tab 4)
Production inputs	Manufacturers and brewers pay in dollars for inputs	Manufacturing (net -USD 17.70 m), breweries	Sector nets	Input mix; pass-through to output prices
Consumer prices and demand	Higher transport and import costs feed into prices, eroding real income	Households, especially urban and low-income	Nothing direct	Inflation (Tab 4); spending data
Debt service	Dollar loans cost more shillings to service when the shilling weakens	Borrowers with shilling revenue	Nothing direct	Dollar loan stock
Offsetting gain	A weaker shilling raises shilling income of exporters	Miners, farmers, tourism and transport operators	Mining, agriculture, tourism, transport all net suppliers	Export prices and volumes

Source: TICGL/TERI analysis. The last two columns separate what the BoT weekly report evidences from what it does not.

TICGL/TERI reading

Growth is not hit by the oil dollar bill itself, which is a normal cost of running an economy, but by sudden changes in what it costs. A steady flow of mining and agricultural dollars turns oil into a predictable expense. When that flow weakens, the shilling is the shock absorber, and the same oil volume costs more shillings every day. Sectors that earn dollars gain from that shock and sectors that spend dollars lose, so the net effect on growth depends on whether the economy's weight sits more with exporters or with importers and consumers. The report shows exporters carry the dollar supply and the import-heavy sectors carry the dollar need, which is the setup for an uneven effect.

04 — Evidence: Prices & GrowthWhat the Monthly Economic Review Shows: Fuel, Prices, Imports and Growth

The weekly report shows dollar flows. The Bank of Tanzania's Monthly Economic Review, September 2026 (data to August 2026) shows what has happened to prices, imports, the external balance and growth. Read together they test the chain in Tab 3: oil dollar demand, then the rate, then costs and prices, then growth. The short answer is that the pressure shows up clearly in imports, the external balance and transport prices, while headline inflation and annual growth data have not moved out of range.

Petroleum imports, yr to Aug-26

USD 3,425.6 m

+51.7% from USD 2,257.4 m

Transport inflation

13.8%

1.4% a year earlier; 14.1% of the CPI basket

Current account deficit

USD 2,481.8 m

+45.9% from USD 1,700.9 m

Gold exports

USD 5,625.0 m

+30.2% from USD 4,321.5 m

Petroleum Imports, Gold Exports and Current Account Deficit

USD million, year ending August 2025 vs August 2026 (provisional). Source: BoT Monthly Economic Review, Table 2.7.1 and Chart 2.7.4

Annual Inflation by Group: Where Fuel Shows Up

Percent, Aug-25, Jul-26, Aug-26. Source: BoT Monthly Economic Review, Table 2.1.1

4.1 Fuel to prices: visible in fares, not yet at the pump

Group (CPI weight)	Aug-25	Jul-26	Aug-26	Reading
Headline (100.0)	3.4	4.2	4.3	Inside the 3-5% target
Transport (14.1)	1.4	13.8	13.8	Lagged pass-through of earlier fuel price rises to bus, taxi and motorcycle fares
Energy, fuel and utilities (5.7)	2.6	6.9	8.5	Highest since October 2024; driven by charcoal and firewood
Core (73.9)	2.0	3.9	4.1	Rising steadily since March 2026
Services (37.2)	0.8	5.7	5.9	Up from 0.8%
Food (28.2)	7.7	4.1	3.7	Easing; favourable supply

Source: Bank of Tanzania, Monthly Economic Review September 2026, Table 2.1.1.

Pass-through is real and concentrated. Transport inflation jumped from 1.4% to 13.8% and has stayed at 13.8%. By weight (14.1% x 13.8%) transport alone accounts for roughly 1.9 percentage points of the 4.3% headline rate (TICGL rough calc.).
It is not coming from pump prices right now. The Review says petrol and diesel prices in Dar es Salaam are well below their June 2026 levels; the energy index is being lifted by charcoal and firewood. Fares kept the earlier increase.
The upside risk is flagged by the Bank itself. Crude oil averaged USD 84.4 a barrel in August (+5.8% on the month, about 36% above the fourth-quarter 2025 average), and the Review says rising refined-product prices present upside risks to domestic energy inflation.
Core inflation is rising. Core is 4.1% and has risen steadily since March 2026, which the Bank reads as a gradual build-up of underlying pressure.

4.2 Imports and the external balance

Year ending August (USD million)	2025	2026p	Change
Petroleum products imports	2,257.4	3,425.6	+51.7%
Imports of goods and services	n.a.	21,269.2	+21.4%
Exports of goods and services	n.a.	20,216.2	+16.4%
Goods exports	9,981.2	11,960.8	+19.8%
Gold exports	4,321.5	5,625.0	+30.2%
Freight payments	1,300.4	1,683.4	+29.5%
Service payments	3,196.2	3,498.2	+9.4%
Current account deficit	1,700.9	2,481.8	+45.9%

Source: Bank of Tanzania, Monthly Economic Review, September 2026 (Table 2.7.1 and text); p = provisional. Changes for goods exports, gold, freight and service payments are TICGL calc. where the Review gives levels only; "n.a." = prior-year level not shown in the text.

Oil is a third of the import increase. Petroleum accounted for about one third of the increase in the goods import bill, and the Review says higher petroleum and intermediate-input costs pushed import growth above export growth, widening the trade and current account deficits.
Gold is the offset. Gold exports rose USD 1,303.5 million, about 66% of the whole rise in goods exports (USD 1,979.6 million; TICGL calc.), on higher prices and volumes. Gold averaged USD 4,411 an ounce in August, up 8.3% on July. This is the "mining leg" of the dollar cushion in Tab 5.
In shillings. At the August average rate of TZS 2,657.01, the year-to-August petroleum bill is about TZS 9.1 trillion, TZS 3.1 trillion more than a year earlier at the same rate. Each 1% fall in the shilling adds about TZS 91 billion a year to it (TICGL calc.).
The weekly flows are a good proxy. Annualised, the oil sector's bank purchases (USD 57.06 million x 52 = USD 2.97 billion) are about 87% of the Review's year-to-August petroleum import bill, so the weekly sector table captures most of the fuel dollar demand.

4.3 The shilling, the Bank's operations and reserves

The Bank was in the market. In August the Bank sold a net USD 45.4 million in the interbank FX market "to alleviate undue volatility", equal to about 24% of that month's USD 190.3 million of interbank turnover (TICGL calc.). That answers a question the weekly report leaves open: part of the shilling's stability is intervention, not only commodity inflows.
The rate has been steady. The shilling averaged TZS 2,657.01 in August against TZS 2,653.52 in July. Its 6.7% annual depreciation largely reflects a base effect, as August 2025 averaged an unusually strong TZS 2,490.16.
Reserves are a buffer. Gross official reserves were USD 5,888.2 million at end-August, 4.2 months of projected imports (excluding FDI-related imports), above the national benchmark, supported by export earnings and the Bank's gold purchase programme.

4.4 Growth: what the long record shows

Real GDP Growth and Inflation, 2018-2025

Percent. 2025 provisional. Source: BoT Monthly Economic Review, Table A1

Current Account Balance, 2018-2025 and Year to Aug-26

USD million. Last bar is the year ending August 2026 (provisional). Source: BoT Table A1 and Table 2.7.1

Growth has been steady. Real GDP growth was 5.2% in 2023, 5.6% in 2024 and 5.9% in 2025 (provisional), with inflation between 3.1% and 3.8%. The Review's annual series stops at 2025, so any 2026 growth effect of the fuel and import pressure is not yet visible.
The deficit had been narrowing, then turned. The current account deficit fell from USD 5,482.2 million in 2022 to USD 2,049.4 million in 2025, then widened to USD 2,481.8 million in the year to August 2026.
A precedent. In 2022 goods imports jumped 42% (USD 10,003.4 million to 14,208.7 million), the current account deficit reached USD 5.5 billion, growth slowed to 4.6% from 4.9% and inflation rose to 4.3% from 3.7%. The Review does not attribute that episode to one cause, so it is a reference point for what an import-cost shock can look like, not a forecast.

What this means for the question: how does oil dollar demand affect growth?

On the evidence to August 2026, the oil dollar bill is a pressure on the external balance, on transport costs and on core inflation, and the Bank is managing it with reserves and FX operations, while gold earnings pay for most of it. It is not yet a visible drag on headline inflation (4.3%, inside target) or on annual growth (5.9% in 2025). The risk is the combination in Tab 5: if gold prices or volumes soften while crude stays near USD 84 a barrel, the cushion thins, reserves and intervention carry more of the load, and the fare-style pass-through seen in transport spreads to the rest of the basket.

What is still not measured

No source here gives 2026 quarterly GDP, fuel pump prices in shillings per litre (the Review shows them only in a chart), or the share of the transport price rise caused by the exchange rate rather than by global crude prices. The effects are therefore described, not decomposed.

05 — Stress TestWhat If Mining and Agriculture Slow? The Cushion Over Oil

The stress test uses one rule: net surplus = mining and agriculture net inflow x (1 - fall) minus oil net need x (1 + rise). The only inputs are the Bank's weekly numbers. A positive result means the two commodity sectors still more than cover oil. A negative one means other sectors or the Bank would have to fill the gap. The rule ignores everything else in the dollar market, so it measures the cushion, not the exchange rate.

Break-even fall, latest week

55.1%

oil unchanged; 46.1% if oil +20%

Break-even fall, prior week

19.8%

oil unchanged; 3.7% if oil +20%

Surplus now

+USD 60.5 m

109.83 minus 49.33, per week

Surplus, prior week

+USD 14.4 m

72.99 minus 58.56, per week

4.1 Latest week as the base

Fall in mining + agriculture inflow	Oil need unchanged	Oil +10%	Oil +20%	Oil +30%
No fall	+60.5	+55.6	+50.6	+45.7
-10%	+49.5	+44.6	+39.7	+34.7
-20%	+38.5	+33.6	+28.7	+23.7
-30%	+27.6	+22.6	+17.7	+12.8
-40%	+16.6	+11.6	+6.7	+1.8
-50%	+5.6	+0.7	-4.3	-9.2
-60%	-5.4	-10.3	-15.3	-20.2

Net surplus in USD million a week. Base: mining + agriculture USD 109.83 m, oil USD 49.33 m (week of 12 Oct). Red = deficit; TICGL calc.

4.2 Previous week as the base

Fall in mining + agriculture inflow	Oil need unchanged	Oil +10%	Oil +20%	Oil +30%
No fall	+14.4	+8.6	+2.7	-3.1
-10%	+7.1	+1.3	-4.6	-10.4
-20%	-0.2	-6.0	-11.9	-17.7
-30%	-7.5	-13.3	-19.2	-25.0
-40%	-14.8	-20.6	-26.5	-32.3
-50%	-22.1	-27.9	-33.8	-39.6
-60%	-29.4	-35.2	-41.1	-46.9

Net surplus in USD million a week. Base: mining + agriculture USD 72.99 m, oil USD 58.56 m (week of 5 Oct). Red = deficit; TICGL calc.

Net Surplus Over Oil: Latest-Week Base

USD million a week, by fall in mining + agriculture inflow, for three oil-demand cases

Net Surplus Over Oil: Prior-Week Base

USD million a week, same cases; the cushion is far thinner

4.3 What the stress test says

The two weeks give very different answers. The break-even fall is 55% on the latest week and 20% on the previous week. A week of good inflows hides how quickly the cushion can shrink.
Oil demand matters about as much as supply. A 20% rise in oil demand costs about USD 9.9 million a week of cushion on the latest base, the same as a 9% fall in mining and agriculture.
A fall in the surplus is not the same as a fall in the shilling. Other sectors, bank positions and the Bank of Tanzania's operations can fill a gap. The test shows where the pressure would start.
Agriculture is the faster mover. Its purchases rose 62.4% in one week; a seasonal export rise (which the report does not state) could fade as quickly. Mining's purchases rose 29.4% (USD 50.82 million to 65.77 million).

Where the pressure would show first

If the cushion shrinks, the first signs would be a larger net sale of dollars by trade, banks selling more than they buy in the retail market, interbank FX turnover climbing from its USD 4-5 million a day, and a faster weekly rise in the mean rate than the 0.07% seen now.

06 — Risks & PolicyDependence, Volatility and the Policy Options

Risk	Evidence in the BoT report	Likelihood (next 4 weeks)	Impact	Most exposed
Commodity-inflow slowdown	Mining + agriculture supplied 90.5% of net inflow; agriculture purchases +62.4% in one week	Medium	High	Shilling; import-heavy sectors
Oil demand rise	Oil bought USD 57.06 m, 23.6% of dollars sold; supplies back only 14 cents per dollar	Medium	High	Importers; transport; consumers
Thin cushion in weak weeks	Cover 1.25x in the week of 5 Oct; break-even fall 19.8%	Medium	Medium	Exchange-rate stability
Trade flow reversals	Trade drove 53.9% of the USD 185 m swing; net USD -86.10 m to +13.84 m	Medium	Medium	Weekly rate path
Thin interbank market	USD 19.70 m a week vs USD 49.33 m oil net need	Medium	Medium	Price discovery
Manufacturing input squeeze	Manufacturing net -USD 17.70 m; supplies about 37 cents per dollar it takes	Low	Medium	Factories; construction suppliers
Fuel pass-through to consumer prices	Monthly Review: transport inflation 13.8% (14.1% CPI weight), energy and utilities 8.5%, crude USD 84.4 a barrel	Medium	Medium	Households; transport users
Widening current account	Monthly Review: deficit USD 2,481.8 m, +45.9%; petroleum imports +51.7%; reserves 4.2 months of imports	Medium	High	Reserves; the shilling
Dollar debt service	No direct data; weaker shilling raises debt cost	Low	Medium	Borrowers with shilling revenue

Source: TICGL/TERI analysis. Likelihood and impact are analytical judgements (Low/Medium/High), not model outputs.

5.1 Policy options, by horizon

Next four weeks

Monitoring. Track the cover ratio (mining + agriculture net over oil net) weekly; a reading below 1.5 flags a thin cushion.
Transparency. Publish sector flows by commodity (gold, crops, fuel) alongside the weekly report.
Liquidity and FX operations. Keep the Bank's operations flexible while net flows swing by more than USD 150 million a week.

Medium term (1-3 years)

Smooth the oil bill. Payment scheduling and pooled procurement so fuel purchases do not peak with weak export weeks.
Widen dollar supply. Add value in minerals and crops, and grow services exports such as tourism and transport, both already net suppliers.
Hedging. Products for fuel importers and dollar borrowers.

Longer term (to 2030)

Reduce dollar fuel intensity. Energy-mix and efficiency measures that cut the dollar cost per unit of output.
Diversify exports. Lower the share of net inflow from two sectors.
Deeper FX market. Raise interbank volumes so large sector flows are absorbed without moving the rate.

"A stable shilling is not proof of a balanced dollar economy. It can also mean two sectors are paying for a third."

— TICGL / Tanzania Economic Research Institute (TERI)

Conclusion

Mining and agriculture earn most of the dollars that banks took in during the week to 16 October 2026, and oil and energy is the largest sector spending them. The two sides balance with room to spare, but the cover moved from 1.25 to 2.2 times in one week and the cushion would be exhausted by a 55% fall in the two commodity sectors (20% on the earlier week's numbers). The policy task is to keep the cushion thick, make the oil bill predictable, and widen the sources of dollars.

07 — TICGL & Your ProjectFrom Sector Dollar Flows to Project Decisions

TICGL (Tanzania Investment and Consultant Group Ltd), with its research arm TERI, turns market data into feasibility studies, market-entry advisory and market research. Dollar flows matter to each of them, because whether a business earns or spends dollars decides how it fares when the shilling moves.

Business profile	Dollar position	Effect of a 1% weaker shilling	What a TICGL study would test
Fuel importer or fuel-intensive transport firm	Net dollar buyer (like oil and energy)	Cost up about 1% on dollar-priced purchases	Pricing power, pass-through, hedging, payment timing
Mining operator or crop exporter	Net dollar supplier	Shilling revenue up; local costs unchanged	Local-cost share, export price sensitivity, financing currency
Manufacturer with imported inputs	Net buyer (net -USD 17.70 m)	Input costs up; output prices may follow	Input substitution, margin squeeze, working-capital cost
Tourism or transport operator	Net supplier	Shilling income up	Currency mix of revenue and costs
Project with a dollar loan and shilling revenue	Short dollars	Debt service up in shillings	DSCR under FX scenarios, currency of funding

Source: TICGL/TERI analysis based on the sector nets in BoT Table 2; indicative only.

6.1 Worked example

A transport company with a USD 5 million dollar loan owes TZS 13,166 million at 2,633.12. At 2,659.56 (the faster-depreciation scenario, +1.0% by 13 November) the debt is TZS 13,298 million: TZS 132 million more with no change in the loan. If the same company buys fuel worth USD 1 million a month, a 1% weaker shilling adds TZS 26 million a month to fuel cost. A feasibility or market-entry model puts both in the downside case and tests whether margins survive.

Feasibility studies

Full feasibility across market, technical, financial, institutional, legal and risk components.
Financial models with NPV, IRR and DSCR under exchange-rate scenarios like those on this page.
Funding-currency analysis: dollar or shilling debt for dollar or shilling revenue.

Market entry advisory

Sector screening by dollar position: net suppliers and net buyers.
Entry mode and cost-base design that matches currency of revenue to currency of cost.
Business facilitation from first meeting to registration and start-up.

Market research and intelligence

Weekly tracking of sector dollar flows and the cover ratio.
Scenario models updated with each Bank of Tanzania release.
Research publications and briefs through TERI.

Talk to TICGL/TERI

Request a feasibility, market-entry or market-research scoping call, or a briefing on this analysis.

What We Do →TICGL Markets →TERI Research →✉️ economist@ticgl.com

08 - SourcesMethod & Source Note

Basis

Source report. Bank of Tanzania, Domestic Financial Markets Weekly Report, 12-OCT-2026 to 16-OCT-2026: Table 1 (exchange rates), Table 2 (retail foreign exchange by sector), interbank FX turnover. TICGL calculations. Net position = purchases minus sales; shares; contribution to the weekly swing = change in each sector's net; cover ratio = mining and agriculture net divided by oil and energy net need; weekday figures = weekly total divided by five; TZS conversions at TZS 2,633.12 per dollar; stress-test surplus = (mining and agriculture net x (1 - fall)) minus (oil net x (1 + rise)). Scenario rates. 2,622.60 / 2,633.12 / 2,640.50 / 2,659.56 are the 16 October mean rate compounded weekly at -0.10%, 0.00%, +0.07% and +0.25% to 13 November 2026. Monthly Economic Review figures. Inflation, petroleum imports, gold exports, freight, current account, reserves, exchange-rate averages and the 2018-2025 growth and current-account series are quoted as published; the transport contribution (about 1.9 points = 14.1% weight x 13.8%), the TZS value of petroleum imports (USD 3,425.6 m at the August average TZS 2,657.01 = TZS 9.10 trillion) and the 87% cross-check (USD 57.06 m x 52 divided by USD 3,425.6 m) are TICGL arithmetic. Limitations. "Purchases" and "sales" are not defined in the weekly report; one week of flow data; the Monthly Review's annual GDP series ends in 2025 (provisional), so any 2026 growth effect is not yet visible; the report covers bank-customer dollar flows, not all central-bank or government operations.

Bank of Tanzania, Domestic Financial Markets Weekly Report, 12-16 October 2026, Dar es Salaam.
Bank of Tanzania, Monthly Economic Review, September 2026 (data to August 2026): inflation (Table 2.1.1), petroleum imports and current account (Table 2.7.1, Chart 2.7.4), exchange rate and interbank market, Statistical Tables A1 and A5.
TICGL/TERI, Tanzania Domestic Financial Markets Weekly, 12-16 October 2026 (companion page).

09 - Quick AnswersFrequently Asked Questions

Which sectors supplied Tanzania's net dollar inflow in the week to 16 October 2026?

Mining (net USD 57.36 million) and agriculture (net USD 52.47 million) supplied USD 109.83 million, 90.5% of banks' total net dollar purchases of USD 121.35 million. Transport and communication (USD 23.77 million) and tourism (USD 22.74 million) were the next largest net suppliers.

How much foreign exchange does the oil and energy sector buy from banks?

Oil and energy bought USD 57.06 million from banks and sold USD 7.73 million to them in the week to 16 October 2026, a net need of USD 49.33 million (USD 58.56 million the week before). That is 23.6% of all dollars sold by banks and about 2.5 times the whole weekly interbank FX market.

Do mining and agriculture dollars cover the oil bill?

Yes in the latest week: mining and agriculture net inflows were 2.2 times oil's net need. The week before the cover was only 1.25 times, so the cushion changes quickly.

How much would mining and agriculture inflows have to fall to cause a net dollar deficit?

On the latest week's numbers, a 55% fall would wipe out the cushion over oil if oil demand were unchanged, or 46% if oil demand rose 20%. On the previous week's numbers, a fall of only 20% would be enough. These are arithmetic stress tests, not forecasts.

How does oil dollar demand affect economic growth day to day?

Through the exchange rate, import and transport costs, production costs for import-dependent sectors, and dollar debt service. The oil sector alone bought about USD 11.4 million a weekday from banks in the latest week, worth about TZS 30 billion a day, so each 1% depreciation adds about TZS 1.5 billion a week to that bill.

What should investors and lenders watch?

Weekly sector net flows from the Bank of Tanzania, the cover ratio of mining and agriculture inflows over oil needs, the interbank FX volume, and whether trade flows keep swinging, since trade drove 54% of the latest week's USD 185 million swing in net flows.

What does the Bank of Tanzania Monthly Economic Review show on fuel, prices and growth?

For the year to August 2026, petroleum imports rose 51.7% to USD 3,425.6 million and the current account deficit widened 45.9% to USD 2,481.8 million. Transport inflation is 13.8% against 1.4% a year earlier, energy and utilities inflation is 8.5%, and headline inflation is 4.3%, within the 3-5% target. Real GDP growth was 5.9% in 2025 (provisional); 2026 growth data are not yet published in the Review.

Muhtasari

Muhtasari kwa Kiswahili

Madini na kilimo vinaleta dola, mafuta yanazitumia. Kwa mujibu wa Ripoti ya Wiki ya Masoko ya Fedha ya Ndani ya Benki Kuu ya Tanzania (BoT) ya wiki ya 12-16 Oktoba 2026, benki zilinunua dola milioni 121.35 zaidi ya zilizouza. Asilimia 90.5 ya ziada hiyo ilitoka sekta mbili: madini (dola milioni 57.36) na kilimo (milioni 52.47). Sekta ya mafuta na nishati ilihitaji dola milioni 49.33 kwa ujumla (ilinunua milioni 57.06, ikauza milioni 7.73), na ndiyo mnunuzi mkubwa zaidi.

Kinga ya sasa: Dola za madini na kilimo ni mara 2.2 ya mahitaji ya mafuta. Wiki iliyotangulia ilikuwa mara 1.25 tu (milioni 72.99 dhidi ya 58.56). Kinga inabadilika haraka.

Kiwango na mshtuko: Madini na kilimo vinaeleza kiwango cha ziada, lakini biashara ilieleza asilimia 54 ya mabadiliko ya dola milioni 185.29 ya wiki moja: kutoka upungufu wa milioni 86.10 hadi ziada ya milioni 13.84.

Gharama ya kila siku: Sekta ya mafuta ilinunua takriban dola milioni 11.4 kwa siku ya kazi, sawa na TZS bilioni 30. Kila shilingi ikidhoofika asilimia 1, gharama ya dola hizo huongezeka TZS bilioni 1.5 kwa wiki (takriban bilioni 78 kwa mwaka kama hali hiyo ikiendelea).

Athari kwa ukuaji (kwa mujibu wa Mapitio ya Uchumi ya Mwezi Septemba 2026): Uagizaji wa mafuta ulipanda asilimia 51.7 hadi dola milioni 3,425.6 kwa mwaka hadi Agosti 2026, nakisi ya akaunti ya sasa iliongezeka asilimia 45.9 hadi dola milioni 2,481.8, na mfumuko wa bei wa usafirishaji ni asilimia 13.8 ikilinganishwa na asilimia 1.4 mwaka mmoja uliopita. Mfumuko wa jumla ni asilimia 4.3, ndani ya lengo la asilimia 3 hadi 5. Ukuaji halisi wa 2025 ulikuwa asilimia 5.9 (awali); takwimu za ukuaji wa 2026 bado hazijachapishwa. Kwa upande mwingine, mauzo ya dhahabu yalipanda asilimia 30.2 hadi dola milioni 5,625.0, na akiba ya fedha za kigeni ni dola milioni 5,888.2 (miezi 4.2 ya uagizaji).

Jaribio la mshtuko: Kwa takwimu za wiki ya hivi karibuni, dola za madini na kilimo zingepaswa kushuka asilimia 55 ndipo kinga ya mafuta iishe (asilimia 46 mahitaji ya mafuta yakipanda asilimia 20). Kwa takwimu za wiki iliyotangulia, kushuka kwa asilimia 20 tu kungetosha. Hizi ni hesabu za mfano, si utabiri.

Mapendekezo: (1) Kufuatilia uwiano wa kinga kila wiki; (2) kuchapisha mtiririko wa dola kwa bidhaa (dhahabu, mazao, mafuta); (3) kulainisha malipo ya mafuta kwa ratiba na ununuzi wa pamoja; (4) kuongeza thamani ya madini na mazao ndani ya nchi na kukuza mauzo ya huduma; (5) bidhaa za kujikinga (hedging) kwa waagizaji na wakopaji wa dola; (6) kupanua soko la dola la benki kwa benki. TICGL/TERI hutoa upembuzi yakinifu (feasibility), ushauri wa kuingia sokoni na utafiti wa soko.

Hitimisho: Shilingi imara ya wiki hii inalindwa na dola za sekta mbili, na mafuta ndiyo yanayozitumia zaidi. Hilo linafanya kazi mradi mtiririko unaendelea. Kazi ni kuweka kinga nene, kufanya gharama ya mafuta itabirike, na kuongeza vyanzo vya dola.

Madini na kilimo: dola milioni 109.83 · asilimia 90.5 ya ziada
Mafuta na nishati: dola milioni 49.33 · asilimia 23.6 ya mauzo ya benki
Uwiano wa kinga: 2.2 (wiki iliyotangulia 1.25) · mahali pa kuvunjika: kushuka asilimia 55 (20)

Chanzo: Benki Kuu ya Tanzania, Ripoti ya Wiki ya Masoko ya Fedha ya Ndani (12-16 Oktoba 2026); TERI/TICGL, Oktoba 2026. Kwa maelezo zaidi: economist@ticgl.com.

Disclaimer & scope

00 — OverviewExecutive Summary

Three things defined the week to 16 October 2026. First, the exchange rate barely moved even though customer demand for foreign currency and supply of it both surged: retail turnover reached USD 604.89 million (+13.3%), and banks bought far more dollars from customers than they sold, a net inflow of USD 121.35 million against a net outflow of USD 63.94 million a week earlier (TICGL calc.). Second, the central bank leaned against tight liquidity: it injected TZS 892.50 billion through 7-day reverse repo, 3.5 times the previous week, and the interbank rate stayed 16 basis points above the policy rate on a weekly average. Third, the long end of the Treasury market rallied: the 25-year bond No. 722 attracted a bid-to-cover ratio of 6.02x and cleared at a weighted average yield of 10.84%, 64 basis points below the previous 25-year auction.

USD/TZS mean rate

2,633.12

from 2,631.36; shilling 0.07% weaker

Retail FX turnover

USD 604.89 m

+13.3% w/w; trade, mining, agriculture 54.3%

IBCM 7-day volume

TZS 812.65 bn

+8.6%; weekly average rate 6.41%

Govt securities outstanding

TZS 34.0 tn

bonds 89.84%; banks 34.17%

Interbank FX (IFEM)

USD 19.70 m

-11.7% w/w; four trading days

Reverse repo injected

TZS 892.50 bn

from TZS 252.43 bn; at CBR 6.25%

25-yr bond No. 722

6.02x cover

TZS 610.61 bn allotted; yield 10.84%

Registered securities clients

35,102

3,600 added in the current fiscal year

Week-on-Week Scorecard: What Moved Most?

Percent change, week to 16 Oct 2026 vs week to 9 Oct 2026. Source: BoT weekly report; TICGL calc.

Monthly Retail FX Turnover, January 2024 - October 2026

USD million, total turnover at commercial banks. October 2026 is a part month (lighter bar). Source: BoT Chart 4

Key findings

A stable shilling over a busy market. The mean rate moved from TZS 2,631.36 to TZS 2,633.12 per dollar. All nine currencies in the Bank's table gained on the shilling, from +0.02% (Rwandan franc) to +1.88% (Indian rupee), so the weakness is broad but small.
Interbank trading thinned, retail trading boomed. IFEM turnover fell 11.7% to USD 19.70 million, but only four sessions were recorded, so the daily average actually rose from USD 4.46 million to USD 4.93 million (TICGL calc.). Retail turnover grew 13.3% and equals about 31 times interbank turnover.
Commodity sectors supplied the dollars. Mining (net +USD 57.36 m) and agriculture (net +USD 52.47 m) were the largest net sellers of foreign exchange to banks; oil and energy (net -USD 49.33 m) and manufacturing (-USD 17.70 m) were the largest net buyers (TICGL calc., reading "purchases" as dollars bought by banks).
2026 is already a record year for retail FX. Turnover for January-September 2026 is USD 19.6 billion, 111.8% of the whole of 2025 (USD 17.5 billion) and 64.0% above January-September 2025 (TICGL calc. from Chart 4).
Liquidity support was large. The Bank injected TZS 892.50 billion, more than the entire week's 7-day interbank volume of TZS 812.65 billion, and the weekly interbank rate averaged 6.41% against the 6.25% CBR.
The bond investor base is institutional. Banks (34.17%) and pension funds (29.76%) hold 63.9% of the TZS 34,015.15 billion outstanding; banks took 56.25% of the 25-year allotment while brokers, with 24.4% of subscriptions, received only 1.43%.
The long end is rallying. The 25-year yield fell from 11.48% to 10.84%, leaving only 15 bps between the 10-year (10.69%) and 25-year (10.84%) auction yields, a flat long end against a 116 bps climb from 5 to 10 years.
Market access is widening. Registered securities clients reached 35,102, with 3,600 joining in the current fiscal year alone (10.3% of all clients).

Four-week outlook in one paragraph (to mid-November 2026)

Our central scenario is a shilling that keeps drifting at the latest pace of 0.07% a week, reaching about TZS 2,640 by 13 November 2026 (range TZS 2,623 to TZS 2,660), supported by mining and agricultural dollar inflows that should still be strong in the October-December export season. Interbank rates should stay in the upper half of the 4.75-7.75% corridor while reverse repo support is large, and long-dated Treasury yields have room to stay near 10.8% if demand at the 6x level persists. The 21 October Treasury bill auction is the next test. The main swing factors are oil-import dollar demand, the pace of liquidity injections, and whether the 25-year result repeats at the next long-bond auction. Scenarios and tables are in Tab 6 and the risk register in Tab 7.

Reading notes on the source data

Percentage changes in Table 1 of the Bank's report are rounded from two-decimal rates, so small currencies (Ugandan shilling, Rwandan franc) show larger percentage changes than the displayed levels imply. The Bank describes the shilling as "depreciating slightly (up 0.07%)": we treat that as a 0.07% weaker shilling. The report does not define "purchases" and "sales" in the retail FX table; TICGL reads them as dollars bought from and sold to customers by banks. Fiscal-year labels in Chart 9, numeric values for Chart 5 (retail moving average) and Chart 10 (yield curve) are not in the text of the report, so those series are summarised rather than reproduced. October 2026 monthly figures are part-month. Table 4 prints "Banks" twice (rows 1 and 6); we show both lines as printed.

01 — Shilling & Interbank FXExchange Rates, Cross Rates and the Interbank Foreign Exchange Market

The Bank of Tanzania's official indicative mean rate for the US dollar closed the week at TZS 2,633.12, compared with TZS 2,631.36 at the close of the previous week, a weekly move of TZS 1.76 or 0.07%. The weekly change is small by any standard. What is more informative is that foreign currencies rose against the shilling across the whole table, which means the shilling lost a little ground against everyone, not just against a stronger dollar.

Currency (TZS per unit)	9-Oct-26	16-Oct-26	Change (TZS)	Change (%) as reported
United States Dollar	2,631.36	2,633.12	+1.76	+0.07
British Pound Sterling	3,476.29	3,487.83	+11.54	+0.33
Euro	2,944.49	2,950.67	+6.18	+0.21
Chinese Yuan (Renminbi)	392.59	393.52	+0.93	+0.24
Indian Rupee	27.19	27.70	+0.51	+1.88
Japanese Yen	16.63	16.67	+0.04	+0.23
Kenyan Shilling	20.25	20.25	0.00	+0.03
Ugandan Shilling	0.64	0.65	+0.01	+0.93
Rwandan Franc	1.78	1.78	0.00	+0.02

Source: Bank of Tanzania, Table 1. TZS change is TICGL calc. from the published rates; percentage changes are as published (computed by the Bank on unrounded rates).

Weekly Change Against the Shilling, by Currency

Percent, 16-Oct-26 vs 9-Oct-26. Positive = the foreign currency gained on the shilling. Source: BoT Table 1

Interbank FX Turnover by Day: Two Weeks

USD million, Monday to Friday. No trade recorded on Wednesday 14 Oct. Source: BoT Charts 1 and 2

1.1 Implied cross rates: the dollar was softer, the shilling was softer still

Dividing the published TZS rates gives the cross rates among the major currencies. The euro and sterling gained about 0.14% and 0.26% against the dollar over the week, while the yen and renminbi gained about 0.17% each (dollar-yen and dollar-yuan lower). Because the shilling lost 0.07% to the dollar and the dollar itself was softer against the majors, the shilling's loss against the euro (0.21%) and sterling (0.33%) was larger than against the dollar. For importers paying in euros or sterling, the cost of foreign inputs rose faster than the headline dollar rate shows.

Implied cross rate (TICGL calc.)	9-Oct-26	16-Oct-26	Change	Reading
EUR/USD	1.1190	1.1206	+0.14%	Euro firmer
GBP/USD	1.3211	1.3246	+0.26%	Sterling firmer
USD/JPY	158.23	157.96	-0.17%	Yen firmer
USD/CNY	6.703	6.691	-0.17%	Renminbi firmer
USD/INR	96.78	95.06	-1.78%	Rupee firmer (approximate)

Source: TICGL calc. as ratios of the Bank's published TZS rates. Cross rates derived from two-decimal rates are approximate; the rupee and yen figures carry the largest rounding error.

1.2 Interbank foreign exchange market (IFEM)

IFEM transactions decreased to USD 19.70 million from USD 22.30 million. Trading was recorded on only four days in the latest week because there is no bar for Wednesday 14 October (TICGL note: 14 October is Nyerere Day, a public holiday in Tanzania). Per recorded trading day, turnover was USD 4.93 million against USD 4.46 million, so underlying activity was slightly firmer. Volume built through the week and was heaviest on Friday (USD 8.00 million), whereas in the prior week the peak came on Thursday (USD 8.30 million).

Day	Previous week	Volume (USD m)	This week	Volume (USD m)
Monday	5 Oct 2026	1.10	12 Oct 2026	3.10
Tuesday	6 Oct 2026	3.80	13 Oct 2026	3.60
Wednesday	7 Oct 2026	4.00	14 Oct 2026	no trade shown
Thursday	8 Oct 2026	8.30	15 Oct 2026	5.00
Friday	9 Oct 2026	5.10	16 Oct 2026	8.00
Week total		22.30		19.70

Source: BoT Charts 1 and 2; totals as published in the text of the report.

Monthly Interbank FX Turnover, January 2024 - October 2026

USD million. October 2026 is a part month (lighter bar). Source: BoT Chart 3

Interbank Turnover by Year, Month by Month

USD million, 2024, 2025 and 2026 (to October). Source: BoT Chart 3

Interbank as a Share of Retail Turnover, 2026

Percent: IFEM turnover / retail turnover, January-September 2026 (TICGL calc.)

Interbank FX turnover (USD m)	2024	2025	Jan-Sep 2025	Jan-Sep 2026	Growth Jan-Sep	Peak month
Total	611.1	1,183.1	707.6	1,369.6	+93.6%	Jul-26: 227.1

Source: TICGL calc. from BoT Chart 3 monthly values. October 2026 (USD 50.9 million, part month) is excluded from the Jan-Sep comparison.

TICGL/TERI reading

The interbank market is a thin layer on top of a large retail market: this week it was 3.3% of retail turnover (4.2% a week earlier), and in 2026 it has ranged from 3.5% (April) to 10.6% (February) of monthly retail turnover. Interbank turnover for January-September 2026 (USD 1.37 billion) already exceeds all of 2025 (USD 1.18 billion) by 15.8%, so depth is improving, but volumes of USD 4-8 million a day are small enough that a single large order can move the price. That is why the stability of the rate this week, in a market where retail flows swung by USD 185 million from net outflow to net inflow, is a signal about central-bank and bank balance-sheet management as much as about market equilibrium.

02 — Retail FX by SectorWho Buys and Who Sells the Dollars? Retail Foreign Exchange at Commercial Banks

Retail foreign-exchange transactions rose to USD 604.89 million from USD 533.81 million, an increase of USD 71.08 million or 13.3%. Trade (USD 181.28 million), mining (USD 74.18 million) and agriculture (USD 73.01 million) contributed the most, together USD 328.47 million or 54.3% of turnover. Over the past month, daily retail transactions averaged USD 124.06 million, with sales averaging USD 61.74 million and purchases USD 62.31 million, a balanced picture over a month that hides this week's large swing in net flows.

Sector (USD million)	Previous week (5-9 Oct)			This week (12-16 Oct)			Turnover change
Sector (USD million)	Purchases	Sales	Total	Purchases	Sales	Total	Turnover change
Trade	44.30	130.40	174.70	97.56	83.72	181.28	+3.8%
Mining	50.82	8.49	59.31	65.77	8.41	74.18	+25.1%
Agriculture	38.64	7.98	46.62	62.74	10.27	73.01	+56.6%
Oil & Energy	7.81	66.37	74.18	7.73	57.06	64.78	-12.7%
Individual Retail Customers	20.31	20.76	41.07	25.38	15.84	41.22	+0.4%
Constructions (Machine & Equipment)	10.41	10.73	21.14	19.44	19.73	39.17	+85.3%
Manufacturing	4.79	30.90	35.69	10.29	27.99	38.28	+7.3%
Transport & Communication	24.08	10.87	34.94	29.80	6.03	35.84	+2.6%
Tourism	20.90	3.22	24.12	24.81	2.07	26.88	+11.4%
Social Services	6.08	4.12	10.20	10.44	5.31	15.75	+54.4%
NGOs	6.79	0.34	7.13	9.05	2.37	11.42	+60.2%
Breweries / Beverages	0.00	4.70	4.70	0.13	2.96	3.09	-34.3%
Total	234.93	298.87	533.81	363.12	241.77	604.89	+13.3%

Source: Bank of Tanzania, Table 2; turnover change is TICGL calc. Published totals are used; sector rows differ from totals by up to USD 0.02 million through rounding.

Total Turnover by Sector: Two Weeks

USD million. Source: BoT Table 2

Net Flow by Sector: Purchases Minus Sales

USD million. Positive = banks bought more dollars than they sold (TICGL calc.)

2.1 The swing from net outflow to net inflow

Total purchases rose 54.6% to USD 363.12 million while total sales fell 19.1% to USD 241.77 million. On TICGL's reading (purchases are dollars bought by banks from customers), the banking system moved from a net sale of USD 63.94 million to a net purchase of USD 121.35 million, a swing of USD 185.29 million in a single week. Three sectors explain most of it: trade, where net flow went from -USD 86.10 million to +USD 13.84 million as purchases more than doubled (+120.2%) and sales fell 35.8%; mining, up USD 15.03 million to a net +USD 57.36 million; and agriculture, up USD 21.81 million to a net +USD 52.47 million, with purchases up 62.4%.

Purchases, Sales and Total: Two Weeks

USD million, all sectors. Source: BoT Table 2

Turnover Growth by Sector, This Week

Percent change vs previous week (TICGL calc.)

Sector Share of Turnover, This Week

Percent of USD 604.89 million (TICGL calc.)

Retail Turnover: Year-on-Year Growth, 2026

Percent, each month of 2026 vs the same month of 2025 (TICGL calc. from BoT Chart 4)

2.2 A record year in the making

Monthly retail turnover rose from USD 740 million in January 2024 to USD 2,822 million in September 2026, the highest month on record in the chart. January-September 2026 turnover totals USD 19,575 million: 111.8% of the full-year 2025 total of USD 17,504 million and 64.0% above January-September 2025 (USD 11,935 million). Growth peaked in February 2026 (+109.0% year on year) and was lowest in May (+39.5%), but has stayed above +46% in every month since, with September at +62.3%.

Retail FX turnover (USD m)	2024	2025	Jan-Sep 2024	Jan-Sep 2025	Jan-Sep 2026
Total turnover	10,931	17,504	6,340	11,935	19,575
Growth y/y	n.a.	+60.1%	n.a.	+88.2%	+64.0%

Source: TICGL calc. from the monthly values in BoT Chart 4 (labels read from the chart). October 2026 (USD 1,385 million, part month) is excluded.

Retail Turnover Cumulative: January-September by Year vs Full Year

USD million. Source: BoT Chart 4; TICGL calc.

TICGL/TERI reading

Sector flows tell a consistent export-and-import story. Dollar supply comes from mining, agriculture, tourism and transport (net inflows in each), while the main users are oil and energy (net -USD 49.33 million, even after a 12.7% fall in turnover), manufacturing (-USD 17.70 million) and breweries (-USD 2.83 million). Oil and energy remains the largest structural buyer of dollars, so fuel-price and import-bill developments (see the zonal report for the pump-price shock earlier in 2026) are the first thing to watch if net inflows fade. For investors and lenders with dollar costs or dollar revenues, the sector table is a ready-made map of who is on which side of the market.

03 — Money Market & LiquidityThe 7-Day Interbank Cash Market and Reverse Repo

The 7-day Interbank Cash Market (IBCM) weighted average rate (WAR) closed the week at 6.68%, down from 6.75% at the close of the previous week. Total 7-day trading volume increased to TZS 812.65 billion from TZS 748.35 billion (+8.6%). The 7-day weekly WAR averaged 6.41%, within the Central Bank Rate (CBR) corridor of 4.75% to 7.75%, and 16 basis points above the CBR of 6.25%, which the Bank describes as consistent with its policy stance.

Closing WAR

6.68%

from 6.75%; 43 bps above CBR

Weekly average WAR

6.41%

+16 bps vs CBR 6.25%

Reverse repo injected

TZS 892.50 bn

3.5x the TZS 252.43 bn of last week

Corridor headroom

107 bps

close is 107 bps below the 7.75% ceiling

IBCM This Week: Volume and Rate by Day

TZS billion (bars) and weighted average rate, % (line). No trading shown for 14 Oct. Source: BoT Chart 7

IBCM Previous Week: Volume and Rate by Day

TZS billion (bars) and weighted average rate, % (line). Source: BoT Chart 6

Session	Volume (TZS bn)	WAR (%)	Spread to CBR (bps)
Mon 5 Oct	153.1	6.49	+24
Tue 6 Oct	60.5	6.55	+30
Wed 7 Oct	1.0	6.05	-20
Thu 8 Oct	242.5	6.35	+10
Fri 9 Oct	291.3	6.75	+50
Mon 12 Oct	160.1	6.12	-13
Tue 13 Oct	219.0	6.46	+21
Thu 15 Oct	194.5	6.44	+19
Fri 16 Oct	239.1	6.68	+43
Totals: previous week / this week	748.4 / 812.7	6.75 / 6.68 close

Source: Bank of Tanzania, Charts 6 and 7 (daily values read from the chart labels; weekly totals as published in the text: TZS 748.35 bn and TZS 812.65 bn). Spread to CBR is TICGL calc.

Daily IBCM Rate Against the CBR Corridor

Percent. Nine sessions, 5-16 Oct 2026; floor 4.75%, CBR 6.25%, ceiling 7.75% (TICGL chart of BoT data)

Reverse Repo Injection vs IBCM Volume

TZS billion, two weeks. Source: BoT section 2 and Chart 8

3.1 7-day reverse repo: the Bank's operating-target tool

During the week the Bank conducted 7-day reverse repo through main operations at the CBR of 6.25%, injecting TZS 892.50 billion to steer the operating target towards the policy rate, against TZS 252.43 billion in the preceding week. The 24-auction history in Chart 8 shows how unusual the recent run is: the early auctions were TZS 75-110 billion each, injections then rose into the TZS 190-1,061 billion range, and the latest TZS 892.50 billion is 2.2 times the 24-auction average of TZS 403 billion (TICGL calc.) and the third-highest in the series after TZS 1,061.3 billion and TZS 893.0 billion.

7-Day Reverse Repo Injections, Last 24 Main Operations

TZS billion, oldest to latest (auction dates are not in the text of the report). Source: BoT Chart 8

Measure	Previous week	This week	Change
IBCM 7-day volume (TZS bn)	748.35	812.65	+8.6%
IBCM closing WAR (%)	6.75	6.68	-7 bps
Reverse repo injected (TZS bn)	252.43	892.50	+253.6%
Injection / IBCM volume	0.34x	1.10x	+0.76x
Operation rate	CBR 6.25%	CBR 6.25%	unchanged

Source: Bank of Tanzania, section 2; ratios are TICGL calc.

TICGL/TERI reading

Rates are behaving, but liquidity is being actively managed. The weekly average of 6.41% sits 16 bps above the CBR, and daily rates ranged from 6.05% to 6.75% in a thin market (volume was only TZS 1.0 billion on 7 October). When the central bank injects more than the interbank market trades, as it did this week (1.10x), banks are leaning on the central bank for funding, which usually follows tax-payment dates, bond settlements and large retail FX transactions that absorb shilling liquidity. For borrowers it means short-term funding costs are anchored near 6.4-6.7% rather than at the 7.75% ceiling, but it also means lending and bond-pricing assumptions should allow for a funding rate that is 15-45 bps above the policy rate.

04 — Government SecuritiesWho Holds Tanzania's Treasury Bills and Bonds?

Outstanding government securities stand at TZS 34,015.15 billion. Treasury bonds make up TZS 30,560.85 billion (89.84%) and Treasury bills TZS 3,454.30 billion (10.16%), so the stock is dominated by long-dated paper. Banks (34.17%), pension funds (29.76%) and retail investors (17.92%) hold the largest shares.

Investor category	Face value (TZS bn)	Share (%)	Comment (TICGL)
Banks	11,622.51	34.17	Largest holder; also 56.25% of the latest 25-year allotment
Pension Funds	10,121.28	29.76	Long-dated, buy-and-hold demand
Retail Investors	6,094.25	17.92	Largest non-institutional share; 35,102 registered clients
CIS and Other Official Entities	2,715.64	7.98	Collective schemes and official bodies
Insurance Companies	2,484.06	7.30	Liability-matching demand
Others	977.42	2.87	Residual
Total	34,015.15	100.00

Source: Bank of Tanzania, Table 3; comments are TICGL/TERI readings. Banks plus pension funds hold 63.93% (TZS 21,743.79 billion, TICGL calc.).

Holdings by Investor Category

TZS billion, face value. Source: BoT Table 3

Bonds vs Bills in the Outstanding Stock

TZS billion; bonds 89.84%, bills 10.16%. Source: BoT section 3

4.1 Registered clients: a fast-widening retail base

In the current fiscal year, 3,600 new clients have been onboarded, taking total registered clients to 35,102. Annual additions climbed from 153 in the earliest year shown to a peak of 9,899 in the second-latest fiscal year, and the 3,600 recorded so far in the current year (the fiscal year began in July) is 36% of that peak after roughly three and a half months. If that pace held for the rest of the year, additions would be well above the previous peak (TICGL calc., illustrative only). Retail investors already hold 17.92% of outstanding securities, so the client base is large enough to matter at the margin for auction demand.

New Registered Clients by Fiscal Year

Number of clients onboarded. Fiscal-year labels are shown relative to the current year because the report's text does not print them. Source: BoT Chart 9

Cumulative Registered Clients

Running total, ending at 35,102 (TICGL calc. from BoT Chart 9)

TICGL/TERI reading

The investor base is institutional at the core and retail at the margin. Banks and pension funds hold nearly two thirds of the stock, so auction outcomes depend on a few large balance sheets; a rising retail client count (+3,600 this fiscal year) adds a second source of demand for the same paper. The 89.84% bond share also means refinancing risk is spread over long maturities, which is good for debt management but means the bill market is small (TZS 3.45 trillion) and a single large bill auction can move short rates.

05 — Auctions & Yield CurveThe 25-Year Bond No. 722 and Recent Treasury Bond Auctions

The 25-year Treasury bond No. 722 (12.75%, issue 19, redeeming 16 October 2051), auctioned on 15 October 2026, attracted 2,547 bids, of which 1,673 were successful. The amount tendered was TZS 2,495.06 billion against TZS 414.19 billion offered, an oversubscription of TZS 2,080.87 billion. The Bank allotted TZS 610.61 billion, 47% more than the amount offered. The minimum successful price was 115.5000 and the weighted average price 116.3067, giving a weighted average yield to maturity of 10.8422%, against 11.4799% at the previous 25-year auction.

Bid-to-cover

6.02x

highest of the six auctions in Table 5

Allotted

TZS 610.61 bn

147% of the TZS 414.19 bn offered

Weighted avg yield

10.84%

11.48% at previous 25-year auction (-64 bps)

Successful bids

1,673 of 2,547

65.7% of bids; 24.5% of value tendered

5.1 Recent Treasury bond auctions: the full table

Measure	5-yr No. 700 (2)	10-yr No. 711 (2)	15-yr No. 696 (2)	15-yr No. 696 (3)	25-yr No. 695 (3)	25-yr No. 722
Coupon	10.25%	11.25%	12.25%	12.25%	13.25%	12.75%
Redemption date	30-Apr-31	23-Jul-36	19-Feb-41	19-Feb-41	05-Feb-51	16-Oct-51
Bids received	100	165	396	312	2,681	2,547
Successful bids	75	87	235	208	1,671	1,673
Highest bid /100	105.0000	109.0000	117.0314	113.5568	118.8041	118.8765
Lowest bid /100	90.6441	83.3963	86.5544	90.6655	88.6694	85.4033
Minimum successful price /100	100.1576	101.4576	109.2189	109.6647	113.7770	115.5000
Weighted average price (WAP)	102.6275	103.3267	112.4713	110.5120	114.4173	116.3067
Weighted average yield to maturity	9.53%	10.69%	10.55%	10.79%	11.48%	10.84%
Weighted average coupon yield	9.99%	10.89%	10.89%	11.08%	11.58%	10.96%
Amount offered (TZS bn)	145.63	182.90	207.27	207.27	414.19	414.19
Total tendered (TZS bn)	398.06	364.96	689.45	504.13	1,446.83	2,495.06
Oversubscription (TZS bn)	252.43	182.06	482.18	296.86	1,032.64	2,080.87
Successful bids (TZS bn)	143.57	149.60	181.19	196.51	414.20	610.61
Bid-to-cover ratio	2.73x	2.00x	3.33x	2.43x	3.49x	6.02x
Coupon dates	30/10, 30/04	23/01, 23/07	19/02, 19/08	19/02, 19/08	05/08, 05/02	16/04, 16/10
Accrued interest (TZS)	3.9315	1.2945	0.0336	1.4432	0.0363	0.0000

Source: Bank of Tanzania, Table 5. The Bank prints under/oversubscription as negative numbers; we show the absolute oversubscription. Bonds are re-opened across auctions: "(2)" and "(3)" are the second and third issue of the same bond number, as printed.

Weighted Average Yield vs Coupon Yield by Auction

Percent. Source: BoT Table 5

Auction-Implied Yield Curve: Yield by Years to Maturity

Weighted average yield (%) against years from 16-Oct-26 to redemption, one point per auction (TICGL chart of BoT Table 5; the Bank's own curve in Chart 10 is not reproduced numerically in the report text)

5.2 The shape of the curve

The auction results trace a curve that rises steeply and then flattens. From the 5-year bond (9.53%, about 4.5 years to maturity) to the 10-year (10.69%, about 9.8 years) yields rise 116 basis points. Beyond 10 years the curve is nearly flat: the 15-year results were 10.55% and 10.79% across two re-openings and the new 25-year cleared at 10.84%, only 15 bps above the 10-year. The earlier 25-year bond No. 695 had priced at 11.48%, so the new 25-year auction moved the long end down by about 64 bps. The 15-year bond moved the other way between its two re-openings (10.55% to 10.79%, +24 bps), so the rally was not uniform, and the Bank's two yield-curve lines (9 October and 16 October in Chart 10) should be read for the weekly shift.

Bid-to-Cover Ratio by Auction

Times covered. Source: BoT Table 5

Offered, Tendered and Successful Amounts

TZS billion. Source: BoT Table 5

Bids Received vs Successful Bids

Number of bids. Source: BoT Table 5

Price Range Across Each Auction

Price per 100: highest bid, weighted average, minimum successful and lowest bid. Source: BoT Table 5

5.3 Who bid and who won at the 25-year auction?

Banks accounted for 27.51% of subscriptions and were allotted TZS 343.50 billion (56.25%). Individuals and companies accounted for 25.42% of subscriptions and were allotted TZS 191.30 billion (31.33%). Brokers accounted for 24.4% of subscriptions and were allotted only TZS 8.72 billion (1.43%). Collective investment schemes bid for 15.34% and received nothing. Pension funds subscribed 4.32% and were allotted 0.64%.

Investor category	Subscription (%)	Allotment (%)	Allotment / subscription	Allotted (TZS bn)
Banks	27.51	56.25	2.04x	343.50
Individuals and Companies	25.42	31.33	1.23x	191.30
Brokers	24.40	1.43	0.06x	8.72
Collective Investment Schemes	15.34	-	0.00x	0.00
Pension Funds	4.32	0.64	0.15x	3.91
Banks (second line, as printed)	2.20	6.53	2.97x	39.87
Others	0.80	3.81	4.76x	23.26
Total	100.00	100.00	1.00x	610.61

Source: Bank of Tanzania, Table 4. Allotted amounts for banks, individuals and companies and brokers are as published; the other rows are TICGL calc. (allotment share x TZS 610.61 billion). Ratios of allotment to subscription above 1.0x mean the group won more than its share of bids.

Subscription vs Allotment by Investor Category, 25-Year Bond No. 722

Percent of total. Source: BoT Table 4

TICGL/TERI reading

A 6.02x bid-to-cover on a TZS 414 billion offer is exceptional by the standards of the table: the previous best was 3.49x (the earlier 25-year bond), and the 10-year bond covered only 2.00x. The Bank's response was to allot 147% of the amount offered and let the yield fall 64 bps, which tells investors that it values long-term funding at lower yields when demand is deep. The spread between bids and results is wide, with the lowest bid at 85.40 against a minimum successful price of 115.50, so most of the 2,547 bids (including a large share of the brokers' subscriptions) were at prices far below where the auction cleared. The 25-year result is a good benchmark for long-tenor, shilling-denominated funding of infrastructure and PPP projects: a 10.84% base yield, with the question being whether a 6x covered auction can be repeated.

The next Government Securities auction is scheduled for Wednesday, 21 October 2026, when Treasury bills will be offered in line with the issuance calendar (details in the auction prospectus).

06 — Four-Week OutlookWhat Happens Next? 19 October - 13 November 2026

This tab turns the 16 October data into scenarios for the next four weeks (and, for the exchange rate, eight weeks to 11 December 2026). The latest hard data end on 16 October, so each scenario starts from that base and runs on simple, transparent rules that anyone can reproduce from the tables in Tabs 1-5. They are scenarios, not forecasts of record, and should be checked against the Bank of Tanzania's daily and weekly releases as they appear.

6.1 Exchange rate: four weekly-drift scenarios

We project the 16 October mean rate (TZS 2,633.12 per dollar) forward at four constant weekly rates of change. Steady (0.00% a week) holds the rate flat. Base (+0.07% a week) repeats the weekly move just observed. Faster depreciation (+0.25% a week) is a stress case about 3.6 times the latest pace, roughly 1% by mid-November. Appreciation (-0.10% a week) assumes inflows from the export season outweigh dollar demand.

USD/TZS Scenario Paths, 16 October - 11 December 2026

TZS per US dollar, weekly points. 16 Oct = actual. TICGL scenario arithmetic (constant weekly drift), not a forecast

Scenario	Weekly drift	13 Nov 2026	Change vs 16 Oct	11 Dec 2026	Change vs 16 Oct	Cost of USD 10m at 13 Nov (TZS m)
Appreciation	-0.10%	2,622.60	-10.52 (-0.40%)	2,612.13	-20.99 (-0.80%)	26,226.0
Steady	0.00%	2,633.12	0.00	2,633.12	0.00	26,331.2
Base (latest pace)	+0.07%	2,640.50	+7.38 (+0.28%)	2,647.89	+14.77 (+0.56%)	26,405.0
Faster depreciation	+0.25%	2,659.56	+26.44 (+1.00%)	2,686.29	+53.17 (+2.02%)	26,595.6

Source: TICGL calc. from BoT Table 1; compounding weekly from TZS 2,633.12 on 16 October 2026. The last column is a worked example for a project with USD 10 million of dollar-priced cost.

6.2 Money market and bonds: what to watch

Interbank rate. With the weekly average at 6.41% and the close at 6.68%, the base case is a range of about 6.2-6.8% while injections stay large. A move above 7.0% would signal tightening liquidity within 75 bps of the ceiling; a move back towards 6.25% would signal that the injections have worked.
Reverse repo. The latest TZS 892.50 billion is 2.2 times the 24-auction average. If injections drift back towards TZS 250-400 billion, liquidity is easing; if they stay near TZS 900 billion or above, funding pressure is persisting.
Treasury bill auction, 21 October. The first bill auction after the long-bond rally shows whether short yields follow the 64 bps move at the long end.
Long bonds. A repeat of 6x cover would keep the 25-year near 10.8%; cover of 2-3x, the norm in the other five auctions, would imply yields back near 11.0-11.5% (the previous 25-year auction was 11.48%).
Retail FX. Weekly turnover of USD 605 million equals about USD 2.6 billion a month, a little below September's USD 2,822 million; October to date is already USD 1,385 million (part month).

6.3 Four-week outlook matrix

Indicator	Latest (BoT report)	Four-week view (TICGL scenarios)	Swing factor	Direction
USD/TZS	2,633.12 (+0.07% w/w)	About 2,640 by 13 Nov (base); range 2,623-2,660	Oil-import demand; export-season inflows	Stable, mild weakening
Interbank FX	USD 19.70 m; four sessions	USD 4-8 m a day continues; weekly total USD 20-30 m	Bank positioning; public holidays	Stable
Retail FX turnover	USD 604.89 m (+13.3%)	USD 550-650 m a week; Q4 monthly total near USD 2.4-2.8 bn	Trade and commodity flows	High, steady
Net FX position	Net purchases USD 121.35 m	Net purchases in mining and agriculture continue; trade nets near zero	Oil and manufacturing imports	Inflow bias
IBCM 7-day rate	6.68% close; 6.41% average	About 6.2-6.8%, upper half of corridor	Liquidity injections; tax dates	Stable, firm
Reverse repo	TZS 892.50 bn	TZS 300-900 bn per week depending on liquidity	Banks' funding needs	Elevated
T-bill yields	Auction 21 Oct	Direction depends on the 21 Oct result	Bill supply; liquidity	To be tested
Long-bond yields	25-yr 10.84% (-64 bps)	10.6-11.2% if cover stays above 3x	Bank and pension demand	Firm to lower
Securities investor base	35,102 clients; +3,600 this FY	Continued onboarding	Retail participation	Up

Source: TICGL/TERI synthesis of Tabs 1-5; ranges are analytical judgements around the scenario arithmetic, not model outputs.

Bottom line

The most likely four weeks combine heavy but stable foreign-exchange activity, an interbank rate that stays comfortably inside the corridor, and long-dated bond demand deep enough to keep yields near 10.8%. The biggest downside risk for the shilling is a sudden rise in oil and import demand; the biggest upside for yields is a repeat of the 25-year auction.

07 — Risks & PolicyWhat Could Go Wrong and What To Do About It

The week's data show a market that is liquid and calm on the surface and concentrated underneath. A small number of sectors supply the dollars, a small number of sectors use them, banks and pension funds hold two thirds of Treasury paper, and the central bank is carrying a lot of the short-term funding load.

Concentration Map: How Much Rides on a Few Players?

Percent share, week to 16 Oct 2026 (BoT report tables; TICGL selection)

7.1 Risk register

Risk	Evidence in the BoT report	Likelihood (next 4 weeks)	Impact	Most exposed
Dollar demand from oil and imports	Oil and energy net -USD 49.33 m a week; manufacturing -USD 17.70 m	Medium	High	Importers; the shilling; fuel and food prices
Reversal of commodity inflows	Mining +USD 57.36 m and agriculture +USD 52.47 m net inflow; net position swung USD 185 m in one week	Medium	High	Exchange-rate stability; exporters
Thin interbank market	IFEM USD 19.70 m in four sessions; USD 4-8 m a day; 3.3% of retail turnover	Medium	Medium	Price discovery; large single-order impact
Short-term liquidity tightness	Reverse repo TZS 892.50 bn vs IBCM TZS 812.65 bn; weekly WAR 16 bps above CBR	Medium	Medium	Banks; short-term borrowers
Demand concentration in bonds	Banks 34.17% + pension funds 29.76% of holdings; banks 56.25% of 25-yr allotment	Low	Medium	Auction outcomes; yields
One-off auction demand	6.02x cover vs 2.00-3.49x in other five auctions	Medium	Medium	Future long-bond pricing
Uneven curve moves	15-yr yield 10.55% to 10.79% while 25-yr fell 64 bps	Medium	Low	Portfolio valuations; project financing assumptions
Small bill market	Treasury bills TZS 3,454.30 bn, 10.16% of stock	Low	Low	Short-rate volatility around auctions

Source: TICGL/TERI analysis. Likelihood and impact ratings are analytical judgements (Low/Medium/High), not model outputs.

Upward pressures (rates, exchange rate)	Downward pressures (relief)
Oil and energy remains the largest net buyer of dollars	Mining and agriculture net inflows of about USD 110 m a week
Interbank rate above the CBR; heavy reliance on reverse repo	Weekly average rate only 16 bps above CBR; 107 bps below the ceiling
Faster depreciation in non-USD currencies (INR, UGX, sterling)	Dollar softer against the majors, limiting broad pressure on the shilling
Concentrated bond ownership	Retail client base expanding (+3,600 this fiscal year)
Possible reversal of the 25-year yield rally	Deep demand at the long end (6.02x cover)

7.2 Policy instruments

Next four weeks

FX policy. Keep publishing daily mean rates and weekly flow data; track net sector flows, since the net position swung by USD 185 million in a week.
Liquidity policy. Calibrate reverse repo size to IBCM volume (1.10x this week) so injections steer the rate to the CBR without crowding out interbank trade.
Auction policy. Use the 21 October bill auction to test whether short yields follow the long end.
Communication. Explain the gap between the weekly average rate (6.41%) and the CBR (6.25%).

Medium term (1-3 years)

Market depth. Raise interbank FX volumes beyond the current USD 4-8 million a day by widening the participant base.
Debt management. Build the Treasury bill stock (10.16% of outstanding) to give a deeper short-end benchmark.
Investor base. Convert retail registration (35,102 clients) into regular auction participation.
Hedging. Develop FX hedging products for the sectors with persistent net dollar needs.

Longer term (to 2030)

Capital market. Use the 25-year benchmark to build a corporate and infrastructure bond curve.
Data. Publish yield-curve values, retail FX moving-average data and fiscal-year labels with the weekly report.
Resilience. Diversify dollar inflows beyond gold and a few crops.
PPP funding. Link long-dated shilling bonds to bankable PPP project financing.

"A calm exchange rate can hide large flows. The question for the next four weeks is whether the dollars that arrived this week keep arriving, and whether the long-bond demand seen at the 25-year auction repeats."

— TICGL / Tanzania Economic Research Institute (TERI)

Conclusion

Tanzania's week to 16 October 2026 shows a shilling at TZS 2,633.12, retail FX turnover of USD 604.89 million, an interbank rate of 6.68% and a 25-year bond yield of 10.84% after a 6.02x-covered auction. For the next four weeks the central scenario is a stable-to-slightly-weaker shilling (about TZS 2,640 by 13 November), money-market rates inside the corridor, and firm long-bond demand. The policy priority is to keep liquidity support and FX flow monitoring ahead of any shift in oil-import demand, and to deepen the interbank and bill markets.

08 — What TICGL DoesFrom Weekly Market Data to Bankable Projects

TICGL (Tanzania Investment and Consultant Group Ltd), with its research arm TERI, turns market data of this kind into decision-grade work for investors, lenders and government: feasibility studies, market-entry advisory, and market research and economic intelligence. This tab shows how the figures in this report become inputs to a financial model or a market study. It does not recommend any investment.

Data point in this report	Value	Where it enters a TICGL deliverable
USD/TZS mean rate	2,633.12	Feasibility study: base exchange rate and depreciation path for dollar-priced capex, equipment and debt service
Weekly drift scenarios	-0.10% to +0.25%	Financial model: FX sensitivity cases on NPV, IRR and DSCR
5-year Treasury yield (auction)	9.53%	Discount-rate build-up for short-life assets: risk-free benchmark
10-year Treasury yield (auction)	10.69%	WACC: risk-free rate for mid-life projects (10-year concessions, plants)
25-year Treasury yield (auction)	10.84%	PPP and infrastructure: long-tenor risk-free rate and domestic bond-funding benchmark
Central Bank Rate and 7-day interbank rate	6.25% / 6.68%	Floating-rate loan pricing and working-capital cost in the model
Retail FX by sector	USD 604.89 m	Market research: sector demand, import and export intensity, hedging needs
Securities holdings by investor	TZS 34.0 tn	PPP structuring: identifying likely domestic financiers (banks, pension funds, insurers)

Source: TICGL/TERI mapping of BoT weekly data to deliverables; indicative only.

8.1 Worked example: what a four-week FX move does to a dollar-priced budget

A project with USD 10 million of imported equipment costs TZS 26,331 million at the 16 October rate. Under the four scenarios on 13 November the same equipment costs TZS 26,226 million (appreciation), 26,331 million (steady), 26,405 million (base) or 26,596 million (faster depreciation): a spread of TZS 370 million between the best and worst cases in four weeks. A feasibility study turns this into a contingency line, a hedging recommendation and a financing-currency choice (shilling against dollar debt), tested against the sovereign yield levels above.

Feasibility studies

Pre-feasibility and full feasibility across market, technical, financial, institutional, legal and risk components, with PPP structuring for public projects.
Financial models with NPV, IRR and DSCR, stress-tested for exchange-rate, interest-rate and input-cost shocks of the kind shown in Tabs 1, 3 and 6.
Funding-structure analysis against the Treasury curve (5, 10, 15 and 25-year yields) and investor-base data.

Market entry advisory

Sector and market screening, then entry-mode choice: import and distribution, contract partner, joint venture or own plant.
Currency and funding strategy for market entry: dollar costs, shilling revenues and hedging.
Incentives, licensing and site mapping; partner and supplier identification; business facilitation from first meeting to registration and start-up.

Market research and economic intelligence

Demand sizing, price benchmarking and competitor mapping by sector.
Scenario models updated with each Bank of Tanzania release, as in the four-week outlook in Tab 6.
Policy briefs and SEO-ready research publications for institutional clients through TERI.

Why this matters to investors and lenders

The same headline shilling rate can mean very different project economics depending on who holds the dollar risk: an importer in oil and energy sits on the buying side, a miner or farmer on the supplying side, and a PPP sponsor funding with long shilling bonds faces a 10.84% benchmark rather than a policy rate of 6.25%. A short market study and a stress-tested financial model are the low-cost way to avoid using a headline rate for a project-level decision.

Talk to TICGL/TERI

Request a feasibility, market-entry or market-research scoping call, or a briefing on this report and the four-week outlook.

What We Do →TICGL Markets →TERI Research →✉️ economist@ticgl.com

09 - SourcesMethod & Source Note

Basis

Source report. Bank of Tanzania, Domestic Financial Markets Weekly Report, 12-OCT-2026 to 16-OCT-2026 (Tables 1-5 and Charts 1-10): exchange rates, Interbank Foreign Exchange Market, retail foreign exchange, 7-day Interbank Cash Market, reverse repo, government securities holdings, registered clients, auction results and sovereign yield curve. TICGL calculations. Week-on-week growth rates; shares; implied cross rates (ratios of published TZS rates); net foreign-exchange flows (purchases minus sales); January-September cumulative and year-on-year growth from monthly chart labels; interbank share of retail turnover; spreads to the CBR; allotment-to-subscription ratios; cumulative registered clients; years to maturity for the auction-implied curve. Outlook scenarios. Exchange rate: 16 October mean rate compounded weekly at -0.10%, 0.00%, +0.07% and +0.25%; reverse-repo and interbank ranges: analytical judgement around the observed ranges. Limitations. Daily values in the IBCM and IFEM charts and monthly values in Charts 3 and 4 are read from chart labels; Chart 5 (retail moving average) and Chart 10 (yield curve) have no numeric values in the report text; "purchases" and "sales" in Table 2 are not defined by the Bank; Table 4 prints "Banks" twice; the year labels of Chart 9 are not printed, so fiscal years are labelled relative to the current year; October 2026 monthly values are part-month.

Bank of Tanzania, Domestic Financial Markets Weekly Report, 12-16 October 2026, Dar es Salaam, 2026.
Bank of Tanzania Central Bank Rate (6.25%) and 4.75-7.75% corridor, as stated in the report.
TICGL/TERI, Tanzania Zonal Economic Performance 2025/26 and Six-Month Outlook (for the pump-price and inflation context).

10 - Quick AnswersFrequently Asked Questions

What was the USD/TZS exchange rate in the week to 16 October 2026?

The Bank of Tanzania mean rate closed at TZS 2,633.12 per US dollar on 16 October 2026, from TZS 2,631.36 a week earlier, a 0.07% weakening of the shilling. All nine tracked currencies rose against the shilling, with the Indian rupee up 1.88%, the Ugandan shilling up 0.93% and sterling up 0.33%.

How active were Tanzania's foreign exchange markets?

Interbank FX turnover fell to USD 19.70 million from USD 22.30 million, but retail turnover at commercial banks rose 13.3% to USD 604.89 million. Trade (USD 181.28 million), mining (USD 74.18 million) and agriculture (USD 73.01 million) were the largest sectors, together 54.3% of turnover.

What is the interbank cash market rate versus the Central Bank Rate?

The 7-day interbank cash market weighted average rate closed at 6.68% (from 6.75%) and averaged 6.41% for the week, 16 basis points above the Central Bank Rate of 6.25% and inside the 4.75% to 7.75% corridor. Volume rose to TZS 812.65 billion, and the Bank injected TZS 892.50 billion through 7-day reverse repo.

How much government debt is outstanding and who holds it?

Outstanding government securities are TZS 34,015.15 billion: Treasury bonds TZS 30,560.85 billion (89.84%) and Treasury bills TZS 3,454.30 billion (10.16%). Banks hold 34.17%, pension funds 29.76% and retail investors 17.92%. Registered clients total 35,102, including 3,600 added in the current fiscal year.

What happened at the 25-year Treasury bond auction on 15 October 2026?

Bond No. 722 attracted 2,547 bids and TZS 2,495.06 billion against TZS 414.19 billion offered (bid-to-cover 6.02x). The Bank allotted TZS 610.61 billion at a weighted average yield of 10.84%, down from 11.48% at the previous 25-year auction. Banks took 56.25% of the allotment.

What is the four-week outlook for the shilling and interest rates?

TICGL/TERI scenarios keep the shilling near TZS 2,640 per dollar by 13 November 2026 if the latest weekly drift of 0.07% continues, with a range of TZS 2,623 to 2,660. Interbank rates should stay in the upper half of the 4.75-7.75% corridor while reverse repo support is large, and the 21 October Treasury bill auction is the next test of yields.

Muhtasari

Muhtasari kwa Kiswahili

Masoko ya fedha ya Tanzania, wiki ya 12-16 Oktoba 2026. Kwa mujibu wa Ripoti ya Wiki ya Masoko ya Fedha ya Ndani ya Benki Kuu ya Tanzania (BoT), shilingi ilifunga wiki kwa TZS 2,633.12 kwa dola moja ya Marekani, kutoka TZS 2,631.36 wiki iliyotangulia, yaani kushuka kwa asilimia 0.07 tu. Sarafu zote tisa zilizoorodheshwa zilipanda dhidi ya shilingi, kuanzia asilimia 0.02 (faranga ya Rwanda) hadi asilimia 1.88 (rupia ya India).

Soko la fedha za kigeni: Mauzo katika soko la benki kwa benki (IFEM) yalishuka hadi dola milioni 19.70 kutoka milioni 22.30 (asilimia 11.7), lakini siku za biashara zilikuwa nne tu. Soko la rejareja kwenye benki za biashara lilipanda asilimia 13.3 hadi dola milioni 604.89. Biashara (milioni 181.28), madini (milioni 74.18) na kilimo (milioni 73.01) vilichangia asilimia 54.3. Benki zilinunua dola nyingi kuliko zilizouza: ziada ya dola milioni 121.35, ikilinganishwa na upungufu wa milioni 63.94 wiki iliyotangulia. Mwaka 2026 tayari ni wa rekodi: Januari-Septemba ni dola bilioni 19.6, zaidi ya mwaka mzima wa 2025 (bilioni 17.5).

Soko la fedha (money market): Kiwango cha wastani cha siku 7 katika soko la fedha la benki (IBCM) kilifunga kwa asilimia 6.68 (kutoka 6.75), na wastani wa wiki ulikuwa asilimia 6.41, juu ya Kiwango cha Benki Kuu (CBR) cha asilimia 6.25 kwa pointi 16 za msingi, ndani ya ukanda wa asilimia 4.75 hadi 7.75. Kiasi kilifikia TZS bilioni 812.65. BoT ilitoa fedha TZS bilioni 892.50 kupitia reverse repo ya siku 7, mara 3.5 ya wiki iliyotangulia (bilioni 252.43).

Dhamana za serikali: Dhamana zilizobaki ni TZS bilioni 34,015.15: hatifungani asilimia 89.84 na hati fungani za muda mfupi (bills) asilimia 10.16. Benki zinashikilia asilimia 34.17, mifuko ya pensheni asilimia 29.76 na wawekezaji wa rejareja asilimia 17.92. Wateja waliosajiliwa ni 35,102, ambapo 3,600 wameongezwa katika mwaka huu wa fedha.

Mnada wa hatifungani ya miaka 25 (No. 722): Zabuni 2,547 zilipokelewa zenye thamani ya TZS bilioni 2,495.06 dhidi ya bilioni 414.19 zilizotolewa (uwiano wa 6.02). BoT ilikubali TZS bilioni 610.61 kwa wastani wa mapato (yield) ya asilimia 10.84, chini kutoka asilimia 11.48 kwenye mnada wa awali wa miaka 25, yaani punguzo la pointi 64. Benki zilipata asilimia 56.25 ya mgao. Mnada unaofuata ni Jumatano, 21 Oktoba 2026 (hati fungani za muda mfupi).

Wiki nne zijazo (hadi 13 Novemba 2026): Katika hali ya msingi, shilingi inaendelea kudondoka polepole kwa kasi ya sasa ya asilimia 0.07 kwa wiki hadi takriban TZS 2,640 kwa dola (wigo TZS 2,623 hadi 2,660). Viwango vya soko la fedha vinabaki katika nusu ya juu ya ukanda wakati BoT inaendelea kutoa fedha kwa wingi. Mapato ya hatifungani ndefu yanatarajiwa kubaki karibu asilimia 10.8 ikiwa mahitaji yataendelea kuwa makubwa. Mambo yanayoweza kubadilisha mwelekeo ni mahitaji ya dola kwa uagizaji wa mafuta, kasi ya mtiririko wa dola kutoka madini na kilimo, na matokeo ya mnada wa 21 Oktoba.

Mapendekezo: (1) Kufuatilia mtiririko wa dola kwa sekta kila wiki; (2) kulinganisha kiasi cha reverse repo na kiasi cha IBCM; (3) kukuza soko la benki kwa benki la fedha za kigeni; (4) kuongeza hati fungani za muda mfupi ili kupata kigezo cha muda mfupi; (5) kutumia mapato ya hatifungani ya miaka 25 kama kigezo cha kufadhili miradi ya miundombinu na PPP; (6) kuchapisha thamani za yield curve pamoja na ripoti. TICGL/TERI hutoa upembuzi yakinifu (feasibility), ushauri wa kuingia sokoni na utafiti wa soko.

Hitimisho: Soko ni tulivu juu ya uso lakini limejikita kwa wachache: sekta chache zinaleta dola, sekta chache zinazitumia, na benki na mifuko ya pensheni zinashikilia theluthi mbili ya dhamana za serikali. Changamoto ya wiki nne zijazo ni kuhakikisha mtiririko wa dola unaendelea na mahitaji ya hatifungani ndefu yanabaki.

USD/TZS: 2,633.12 · mabadiliko ya wiki: asilimia 0.07
FX ya rejareja: dola milioni 604.89 · asilimia 13.3 · IFEM: dola milioni 19.70
IBCM: asilimia 6.68 · CBR: asilimia 6.25 · reverse repo: TZS bilioni 892.50
Hatifungani ya miaka 25: yield asilimia 10.84 · uwiano wa zabuni 6.02

Chanzo: Benki Kuu ya Tanzania, Ripoti ya Wiki ya Masoko ya Fedha ya Ndani (12-16 Oktoba 2026); TERI/TICGL, Oktoba 2026. Kwa maelezo zaidi: economist@ticgl.com.

Disclaimer & scope

Prepared by TERI for research and strategic-information purposes only. It is not investment, legal, tax or financial advice and does not state the position of the Bank of Tanzania, the National Bureau of Statistics or the Government. "Output per person" is regional GDP divided by population (GDP per capita) as published by NBS; it is not household income. The report does not state the causes of regional differences; the explanations below are TICGL/TERI's reading of the figures, each marked by how well the data support it. The outlook (Tab 6) is a set of scenarios, not a forecast of record. p = provisional.

00 - OverviewThe Short Answer: What the Output-Per-Person Numbers Say

Output per person in Dar es Salaam reached TZS 6.78 million in 2025, 3.9 times the TZS 1.74 million of Simiyu region, the lowest in the country. The gap is not new: the ratio has stayed between 3.7 and 4.2 in every year from 2019 to 2025, and Simiyu has been the lowest region in every one of those years. Lake zone, home to 32% of mainland people, produces only 26.1% of GDP, which puts its output per person 18% below the national average. This report uses the Bank of Tanzania regional series (Annexes 1 and 2, 2019-2025) to show how the numbers are built, whether the gap is closing, what it does and does not mean, and what the next six months are likely to change.

Dar es Salaam, per person

TZS 6.78 m

1.91x the mainland average of TZS 3.54 m

Simiyu, per person

TZS 1.74 m

Lowest of 26 regions, 49% of the average

Gap, Dar es Salaam to Simiyu

3.9x

3.74x to 4.21x in every year since 2019

Lake zone

32.0% / 26.1%

share of people / share of GDP; 18% below average

Regions below the national average

14 of 26

55.4% of people, 39.8% of GDP

Five lowest regions

20.5% of people

but only 11.4% of GDP

Between-zone share of inequality

65%

35% is within zones (Theil, 2025)

Regional Gini, 2025p

0.218

0.205 in 2019; population-weighted

Output Per Person in All 26 Regions, 2025

TZS million per person, current prices. Amber = Dar es Salaam; red = Simiyu; blue = above national average; grey = below. Source: BoT Annex 2

How Far Ahead Is Dar es Salaam? Ratio of Output Per Person, 2019-2025

Dar es Salaam divided by Simiyu, by Kagera, and by the mainland average. Source: BoT Annexes 1 and 2; TICGL calc.

Key findings

The gap has lasted at least seven years. Dar es Salaam to Simiyu was 4.21x in 2019 and 3.89x in 2025p, with a low of 3.74x in 2022. It narrowed slightly in 2025 (from 4.00x), because Simiyu output per person rose 10.6% against 7.5% in Dar es Salaam, but one year does not make a trend.
Regions are not converging. Between 2022 and 2025, regions that started richer grew slightly faster (correlation +0.27), and Simiyu grew 4.8% a year against 6.1% in Dar es Salaam and 5.7% nationally.
It is mainly a zone story. About 65% of regional inequality sits between the six zones and 35% within them. Lake zone shows the within-zone spread most clearly: Mwanza (TZS 4.07 m) is above the national average while Simiyu (1.74 m), Kagera (1.85 m) and Kigoma (2.30 m) are the lowest, and Dodoma (2.11 m), Singida (1.99 m) and Pwani (2.16 m) are also in the bottom six.
Over half of Tanzanians live in regions below the average. 14 regions are below TZS 3.54 million and hold 55.4% of people but 39.8% of output.
These are output figures, not incomes. GDP per person measures what is produced where, divided by residents. Head offices, the port, government and large firms put output in Dar es Salaam that is not earned by its residents alone. The true gap in household incomes is probably smaller, but the report has no household income or poverty data by region to measure it.

Six-month outlook in one paragraph (October 2026 - March 2027)

A gap that has lasted seven years will not close in six months, and the 2026 regional numbers will not be published until well after the period ends. What can change is real purchasing power. Inflation in June 2026 was 6.2% in Dar es Salaam, 8.0% in Southern Highlands, 5.2% in Central, but only 3.0% in Lake and 2.6% in South Eastern. If nominal output per person keeps growing at its 2022-25 pace and prices follow the base case from our zonal economy report, real growth per person stays positive in every zone but is thinnest in Dar es Salaam (about +0.6%); under the stress case it turns negative in four of six zones (Dar es Salaam -1.6%, Southern Highlands -0.7%, Lake -0.3%, Northern -0.2%) (Tab 6).

01 - The NumbersOutput Per Person: Regions, Zones and a Break in the Series

The Bank of Tanzania report reproduces the National Bureau of Statistics regional series for GDP (Annex 1) and GDP per person (Annex 2) for the 26 mainland regions from 2019 to 2025. Dividing one by the other gives the population the statisticians used for each region and year, which is how we derive population shares below. Zanzibar is not included.

1.1 All 26 regions

Region	Zone	2019	2022	2024	2025p	Index (mainland = 100)	Growth 2025	CAGR 2022-25	Rank
Dar es Salaam	Dar es Salaam	4.49	5.67	6.31	6.78	191	+7.5%	+6.1%	1
Iringa	Southern Highlands	3.85	4.73	5.21	5.71	161	+9.5%	+6.4%	2
Kilimanjaro	Northern	3.27	4.29	4.81	5.20	147	+8.1%	+6.6%	3
Mbeya	Southern Highlands	3.65	4.27	4.70	5.06	143	+7.7%	+5.8%	4
Njombe	Southern Highlands	3.06	3.66	4.05	4.53	128	+11.8%	+7.4%	5
Arusha	Northern	3.18	3.58	4.03	4.28	121	+6.1%	+6.2%	6
Ruvuma	South Eastern	3.27	3.64	3.93	4.16	117	+5.9%	+4.5%	7
Mwanza	Lake	2.71	3.48	3.82	4.07	115	+6.4%	+5.4%	8
Tanga	Northern	2.72	3.19	3.54	3.80	107	+7.4%	+6.0%	9
Manyara	Northern	2.58	3.22	3.50	3.73	105	+6.5%	+5.0%	10
Mtwara	South Eastern	2.61	3.02	3.34	3.58	101	+7.2%	+5.8%	11
Lindi	South Eastern	2.74	2.99	3.28	3.57	101	+8.8%	+6.1%	12
Shinyanga	Lake	2.62	2.81	3.16	3.40	96	+7.7%	+6.6%	13
Morogoro	Central	2.51	2.69	3.01	3.27	92	+8.8%	+6.8%	14
Mara	Lake	2.21	2.72	3.03	3.26	92	+7.5%	+6.2%	15
Geita	Lake	2.65	2.73	2.90	3.13	88	+7.9%	+4.6%	16
Songwe	Southern Highlands	2.05	2.42	2.71	2.94	83	+8.7%	+6.7%	17
Rukwa	Southern Highlands	2.43	2.45	2.74	2.88	81	+5.1%	+5.4%	18
Katavi	Southern Highlands	2.44	2.10	2.29	2.46	69	+7.2%	+5.4%	19
Kigoma	Lake	1.44	2.02	2.17	2.30	65	+6.1%	+4.5%	20
Tabora	Central	1.73	1.95	2.16	2.30	65	+6.5%	+5.5%	21
Pwani	South Eastern	2.10	1.78	1.95	2.16	61	+10.9%	+6.6%	22
Dodoma	Central	1.67	1.81	2.00	2.11	60	+5.6%	+5.3%	23
Singida	Central	1.62	1.71	1.84	1.99	56	+7.7%	+5.1%	24
Kagera	Lake	1.14	1.53	1.70	1.85	52	+9.1%	+6.4%	25
Simiyu	Lake	1.07	1.51	1.58	1.74	49	+10.6%	+4.8%	26
Mainland Tanzania		2.56	3.00	3.30	3.54	100	+7.4%	+5.7%

Source: NBS via Bank of Tanzania, Annex 2 (TZS million per person, current prices); index, growth and rank are TICGL calc. Compound growth is measured from 2022 because the series is re-based between 2021 and 2022 (see 1.3).

1.2 The six zones

Zone	People 2025 (m)	Share of people %	GDP 2025 (TZS tn)	Share of GDP %	Per person 2025 (TZS m)	Per person 2019 (TZS m)	Index 2025 (mainland = 100)
Central	12.9	19.5	31.7	13.5	2.46	1.91	69
Dar es Salaam	5.9	8.9	39.8	17.0	6.78	4.49	191
Lake	21.1	32.0	61.0	26.1	2.89	1.97	82
Northern	9.6	14.5	40.3	17.2	4.21	2.94	119
South Eastern	7.3	11.0	24.1	10.3	3.31	2.71	93
Southern Highlands	9.3	14.1	37.2	15.9	3.99	3.01	112
Mainland	66.1	100.0	234.1	100.0	3.54	2.56	100

Source: BoT Annexes 1 and 2; zone figures are the sum of regions (TICGL calc.); people = GDP / GDP per person.

Output Per Person by Zone, 2019-2025

TZS million per person, current prices. Source: BoT Annexes 1 and 2; TICGL calc. from regions

Each Zone as a Percentage of the Mainland Average

Output per person, mainland = 100. Source: BoT Annexes 1 and 2; TICGL calc.

1.3 A break in the series in 2022

The per-person series jumps between 2021 and 2022: Simiyu +23.0%, Kigoma +29.0%, Katavi falls 18.8%. The cause is visible in the implied population. Katavi goes from 0.84 million to 1.15 million people and Kigoma from 2.90 million to 2.47 million in one year, while GDP in both grows smoothly. This is consistent with population estimates being re-based, most likely to the 2022 Census, though the report does not say so. The practical rule is: levels in 2025 are comparable across regions, trends are reliable from 2022 onward, and any comparison that crosses 2021 and 2022 mixes two population bases. This page therefore measures growth and convergence from 2022 and treats 2019-2021 as a separate earlier series.

TICGL/TERI reading

Monthly equivalents make the numbers concrete, though they are output, not take-home pay: TZS 6.78 million a year is about TZS 565,000 per person per month in Dar es Salaam, against about TZS 145,000 in Simiyu and TZS 295,000 on the mainland average. Moving every region to the national average would require about TZS 36.4 trillion of additional output a year (TZS 15.6% of GDP).

02 - People vs OutputLake Zone: 32% of People, 26.1% of Output, and Inequality Within Zones

Lake zone has 32.0% of mainland people (about 21.1 million) but produces 26.1% of GDP (TZS 61.0 trillion). Dividing the two shares gives 82% of the national average, which is the 18% shortfall in the data. The same arithmetic applies to every zone: a zone whose share of GDP is below its share of people is below the average per person.

Zone	Share of people %	Share of GDP %	Difference (points)	GDP share / people share (index)	Output per person (TZS m)	Regions
Dar es Salaam	8.9	17.0	8.1	191	6.78	1
Northern	14.5	17.2	2.7	119	4.21	4
Southern Highlands	14.1	15.9	1.8	112	3.99	6
South Eastern	11.0	10.3	-0.7	93	3.31	4
Lake	32.0	26.1	-5.9	82	2.89	7
Central	19.5	13.5	-6.0	69	2.46	4

Source: BoT Annexes 1 and 2; TICGL calc. Index of 100 = output in line with population.

Share of People vs Share of Output by Zone, 2025

Percent of the mainland total. Source: BoT Annexes 1 and 2; TICGL calc.

Lake Zone Output Per Person Relative to the Mainland, 2019-2025

Percent of the mainland average. Source: BoT Annexes 1 and 2; TICGL calc. (break between 2021 and 2022)

2.1 Inside Lake zone: the gap runs through the middle of it

Region	People (m)	GDP (TZS tn)	Per person (TZS m)	Index (mainland = 100)	Growth 2025
Mwanza	4.12	16.75	4.07	115	+6.4%
Shinyanga	2.48	8.44	3.40	96	+7.7%
Mara	2.65	8.63	3.26	92	+7.5%
Geita	3.36	10.50	3.13	88	+7.9%
Kigoma	2.76	6.34	2.30	65	+6.1%
Kagera	3.32	6.15	1.85	52	+9.1%
Simiyu	2.43	4.23	1.74	49	+10.6%
Lake zone	21.1	61.0	2.89	82	+7.5%

Source: BoT Annexes 1 and 2; TICGL calc. (people = GDP / GDP per person).

Lake Zone Regions: Output Per Person vs the Mainland Average, 2025

TZS million per person. Source: BoT Annex 2

Mwanza (4.07 million, 115% of the average) lifts the zone, while Simiyu, Kagera and Kigoma, with 8.5 million people between them, sit 35-51% below the average. Lake zone also accounts for 69.3% of mineral recovery in 2025/26, yet its output per person is the second lowest of the six zones. Geita, the zone's second-largest regional economy (TZS 10.5 trillion), has output per person at 88% of the national average. The report does not describe how mining value added is allocated to regions, so we cannot say whether this reflects small local value added, profits booked elsewhere, or both.

2.2 How unequal are regions, taken together?

Year	Gini across 26 regions (population-weighted)	Highest / lowest region
2019	0.205	4.21
2020	0.207	4.18
2021	0.208	4.04
2022	0.215	3.74
2023	0.217	3.84
2024	0.218	4.00
2025p	0.218	3.89

Source: TICGL calc. from BoT Annexes 1 and 2. A Gini of 0 means every region has the same output per person.

Lorenz Curve of Output Across Regions, 2025

Cumulative share of GDP (y) against cumulative share of people (x), regions ranked from lowest to highest output per person. Source: BoT Annexes 1, 2; TICGL calc.

The population-weighted Gini across regions is 0.218 in 2025, up from 0.205 in 2019. The ten poorest regions hold 37% of people and 23% of output. A Theil decomposition shows 65% of the inequality is between the six zones and 35% within them. This measures inequality between regional averages, so it understates inequality between households.

TICGL/TERI reading

Lake zone is the clearest example of why a zone average misleads. Its 18% shortfall is the result of a premium pocket (Mwanza) and a low-output belt (Simiyu, Kagera, Kigoma) that together are 21.1 million people. Policy and market-entry choices made at zone level miss this; they need to be made at regional level.

03 - What Sits Behind the GapWhy Output Per Person Differs: Structure, Location and Measurement

Why is output per person so different across regions? The Bank of Tanzania report has no sector breakdown of regional GDP, so the question cannot be answered directly. What it does have is zone-level data on manufacturing, banking, public revenue, power and food, which can be divided by population to see what the high-output zone has that the others do not. The pattern is clear, though the mechanisms are partly inferred.

Zone	GDP per person 2025 (TZS m)	Manufactured output per person 2025/26 (TZS '000)	Bank deposits per person (TZS '000)	Local-government own revenue per person (TZS '000)	Electricity generated per person (kWh)	Food crops per person (kg)
Dar es Salaam	6.78	1,716	5,347	60	730	2
Northern	4.21	299	560	21	47	319
Southern Highlands	3.99	101	203	28	61	757
South Eastern	3.31	522	220	37	905	410
Lake	2.89	70	249	16	11	350
Central	2.46	162	349	18	150	366
Mainland	3.54	322	757	25	213	382

Source: BoT Tables 1.1-1.2, 3.1, 4.3, 5.x, 6.1 and the energy tables; per-person figures are TICGL calc. using population implied by GDP / GDP per person. Electricity and manufacturing are booked where plants are, not where people live.

What Dar es Salaam Has More of, Per Person

Index, mainland average = 100. Source: BoT zonal tables; TICGL calc.

Food-Crop Output Per Person by Zone, 2025/26

Kilograms per person. Source: BoT Table 3.1; TICGL calc.

3.1 Six explanations, ranked by how well the data support them

Explanation	What the data show	Evidence
1. Dar es Salaam is where manufacturing, finance and trade concentrate	It has 8.9% of people but 47.4% of manufactured output (index 533), 62.8% of deposits (index 706) and 238% of the average local revenue per person.	Measured
2. Records and headquarters sit there	88.2% of tax collections and 85.4% of port cargo are booked in Dar es Salaam, so part of its GDP is output for the whole country that is attributed to its location.	Measured; the attribution rule is not described
3. Farming alone does not lift output per person	Southern Highlands produces 757 kg of food per person, 2.0x the average, and sits at 112% of national output per person. Central produces 366 kg per person, near the average, but only 69% of the national figure.	Measured
4. Power is generated far from where output per person is highest	South Eastern generates 905 kWh per person (4.2x the average) and sits at 93% of national output per person; Lake generates 11 kWh per person.	Measured
5. Government presence does not raise output per person by itself	Dodoma, the capital, has output per person of TZS 2.11 million, 60% of the national average and fourth lowest of the 26 regions.	Measured
6. Dar es Salaam's workforce partly lives next door	If many people who work in Dar es Salaam live in Pwani region, output is counted in one and people in the other. Pwani has output per person of TZS 2.16 million, fifth lowest of the 26 regions.	Hypothesis; not testable from the report

Source: BoT zonal tables and Annexes 1-2; TICGL calc. "Measured" means the figure is in the report; the interpretation is TICGL/TERI's.

TICGL/TERI reading

The common thread is that output per person tracks where non-farm, non-extractive activity is booked, not where the most food, power or minerals are produced. That is why Dar es Salaam is far ahead, why Southern Highlands (a food surplus zone) is only a little above the average, and why Lake, despite 69.3% of mineral recovery, is not. The way to raise output per person in the lower regions is therefore to add value locally, not simply to produce more raw output.

04 - Is the Gap Closing?Seven Years of Ratios, No Convergence, and the Arithmetic of Catching Up

The seven-year record answers the "how long" question directly: the gap between Dar es Salaam and the lowest region has not closed, and on the evidence of 2022-2025 it is not on a path to close. This tab sets out the year-by-year ratios, tests whether poorer regions grow faster, and then does the arithmetic of catching up.

4.1 Seven years of ratios

Year	Dar es Salaam (TZS m)	Simiyu (TZS m)	Dar es Salaam / Simiyu	Dar es Salaam / mainland	Simiyu as % of mainland	Regional Gini
2019	4.49	1.07	4.21x	1.75x	42%	0.205
2020	4.72	1.13	4.18x	1.76x	42%	0.207
2021	4.98	1.23	4.04x	1.77x	44%	0.208
2022	5.67	1.51	3.74x	1.89x	51%	0.215
2023	5.93	1.54	3.84x	1.92x	50%	0.217
2024	6.31	1.58	4.00x	1.91x	48%	0.218
2025p	6.78	1.74	3.89x	1.91x	49%	0.218

Source: BoT Annex 2; ratios and Gini are TICGL calc. The 2022 step reflects the population re-basing described in Tab 1.

4.2 Year-on-year growth in output per person

Region	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025p	CAGR 2022-25
Dar es Salaam	+5.2%	+5.4%	+13.8%	+4.7%	+6.3%	+7.5%	+6.1%
Simiyu	+6.1%	+9.0%	+23.0%	+1.9%	+2.1%	+10.6%	+4.8%
Kagera	+3.6%	+4.7%	+24.3%	+3.6%	+6.7%	+9.1%	+6.4%
Mainland	+4.4%	+4.8%	+6.8%	+3.3%	+6.6%	+7.4%	+5.7%

Source: BoT Annex 2; TICGL calc. 2022 growth reflects the re-basing; compare years from 2023 onward.

From 2023, Simiyu grew 1.9% and 2.1% while Dar es Salaam grew 4.7% and 6.3%, and the ratio drifted up from 3.74 to 4.00. In 2025 Simiyu grew 10.6% against 7.5% and the ratio fell to 3.89. Over the three years 2022-25, however, Simiyu averaged 4.8% a year, Dar es Salaam 6.1% and the mainland 5.7%. Simiyu is the fastest-growing region in GDP terms in 2025 (+14.7%), so the 2025 improvement may be the start of a catch-up, but it is a single observation after two years of falling behind.

4.3 Do poorer regions grow faster?

If regions were converging, those starting with lower output per person in 2022 would show faster growth to 2025. The opposite holds weakly: the correlation between 2022 output per person (logarithm) and annual growth to 2025 across the 26 regions is +0.27, meaning slightly faster growth among the richer regions. The fastest-growing regions were Njombe (7.4%), Morogoro (6.8%), Songwe (6.7%), Pwani (6.6%) and Shinyanga (6.6%); the slowest were Kigoma (4.5%), Ruvuma (4.5%), Geita (4.6%), Simiyu (4.8%) and Manyara (5.0%). With 26 regions and three years, this is suggestive, not conclusive.

Starting Level vs Growth: No Sign of Convergence, 2022-2025

x = output per person in 2022 (TZS million); y = compound annual growth 2022-25 (%). Each point is a region; colour = zone. Source: BoT Annex 2; TICGL calc.

4.4 How long would catching up take?

The table asks how fast each of the six lowest regions would need to grow, each year, to reach the national average of TZS 3.54 million within 10, 20 or 30 years, assuming the mainland average itself keeps growing at its 2022-25 pace of 5.7% a year. All figures are nominal; they are relative comparisons, so inflation cancels out if it affects all regions equally.

Region	Zone	Output per person 2025 (TZS m)	Needed a year: 10 yrs	20 yrs	30 yrs	Actual 2022-25 pace
Simiyu	Lake	1.74	13.5%	9.6%	8.3%	4.8%
Kagera	Lake	1.85	12.8%	9.2%	8.1%	6.4%
Singida	Central	1.99	12.0%	8.8%	7.8%	5.1%
Dodoma	Central	2.11	11.3%	8.5%	7.6%	5.3%
Pwani	South Eastern	2.16	11.1%	8.4%	7.5%	6.6%
Tabora	Central	2.30	10.4%	8.1%	7.3%	5.5%

Source: TICGL calc. from BoT Annex 2. Needed growth = (national average 2025 / region 2025)^(1/N) x (1 + national growth) - 1.

Growth Needed to Reach the National Average in 20 Years vs Actual Pace

Percent a year, nominal. Needed assumes the national average keeps growing at 5.7% a year. Source: BoT Annex 2; TICGL calc.

At the 2022-25 pace the gap widens. If Simiyu keeps growing at 4.8% and Dar es Salaam at 6.1%, the ratio rises from 3.9x to 4.4x in ten years and 5.0x in twenty.
Simiyu needs about 9.6% a year to reach the national average in 20 years, roughly double its own 2022-25 pace. If it repeated its 2025 pace (10.6%) every year while the mainland grew 5.7%, it would take about 16 years.
All six of the lowest regions are growing below the pace needed even for a 30-year catch-up. Pwani is closest (6.6% a year against 7.5% needed); Simiyu is furthest (4.8% against 8.3%).

What this means for the "how long" question

On the evidence of the series, the honest answer is: more than a generation at current rates, and never if the 2022-25 pattern simply continues. The gap is shaped by structure (where manufacturing, finance and headquarters sit), and structure changes slowly. A six-month window cannot move it; it can only show whether 2025's faster Simiyu growth was a turning point.

05 - What It MeansOutput vs Income, Market Size, Real Growth and Local Public Finance

What do the numbers mean once they are read correctly? Five points follow: what output per person is and is not, what it says about market size, whether people are better off in real terms, what it means for local public finance, and how concentrated demand is.

5.1 Output per person is not income per person

GDP per person divides the value added produced in a region by the people who live there. It includes company profits, depreciation, taxes on products and the pay of workers who live elsewhere, none of which reaches residents as household income. In Dar es Salaam, where headquarters, the port and government are located, the share of output that is not earned by residents is probably larger than in Simiyu. The 3.9-times gap in output is therefore likely larger than the gap in household incomes, and household consumption is the figure that matters for living standards. The report has no household income, consumption or poverty series by region, so the gap in living standards cannot be measured from it. The National Bureau of Statistics household surveys are the right source for that and would be a natural complement to this analysis.

5.2 Market size and purchasing power

For market research, two numbers matter together: how many people, and how much output per person. The table and chart place each zone on both.

Zone	People (m)	GDP (TZS tn)	Per person (TZS m)	Index	Market profile
Dar es Salaam	5.9	39.8	6.78	191	Premium urban market
Northern	9.6	40.3	4.21	119	Upper-middle, tourism-linked
Southern Highlands	9.3	37.2	3.99	112	Above-average, farm-surplus
South Eastern	7.3	24.1	3.31	93	Near-average, energy and ports
Lake	21.1	61.0	2.89	82	Largest volume, mass market with a Mwanza pocket
Central	12.9	31.7	2.46	69	Lowest output per person, farm and livestock

Source: BoT Annexes 1 and 2; TICGL calc. The market profile is TICGL/TERI's reading.

Market Size vs Purchasing Power by Zone, 2025

x = output per person (TZS million); y = zone GDP (TZS trillion); bubble size = people. Source: BoT Annexes 1 and 2; TICGL calc.

Lake zone is the largest market by output (TZS 61 trillion) and by people (21.1 million) but at 82% of national output per person; Dar es Salaam is a market of 5.9 million people with 1.91 times the average output per person. The two require different offers: scale and price in Lake, depth and quality in Dar es Salaam.

5.3 Are people better off in real terms?

Zone	Output per person growth 2025 (nominal)	Average inflation 2025/26	Real growth (indicative)
South Eastern	+7.7%	3.3%	+4.3%
Central	+7.2%	3.0%	+4.1%
Northern	+7.0%	2.9%	+4.0%
Lake	+7.5%	3.6%	+3.7%
Southern Highlands	+8.0%	4.7%	+3.2%
Dar es Salaam	+7.5%	4.8%	+2.5%
Mainland	+7.4%	3.6%	+3.7%

Source: BoT Annexes 1-2 and Table 1.3; TICGL calc. Real growth = (1 + nominal growth) / (1 + average inflation) - 1. The output year is calendar 2025 and the inflation year is 2025/26, so the figures are indicative only.

Real Growth in Output Per Person, 2025 (Indicative)

Percent; nominal growth in 2025 deflated by 2025/26 average zonal inflation. Source: BoT Annex 2, Table 1.3; TICGL calc.

In 2025 every zone had positive real growth in output per person, from 2.5% in Dar es Salaam to 4.3% in South Eastern. Dar es Salaam has the highest level but the lowest real growth, because its prices rose most; this is the only force in the data that narrows the gap, and it narrows it through higher prices in Dar es Salaam, not faster growth elsewhere.

5.4 Local public finance follows the same pattern

Local government authorities collected TZS 60,000 per person in own-source revenue in Dar es Salaam, against TZS 16,000 in Lake (3.7x) and TZS 18,000 in Central. The gap in local revenue per person is wider than the gap in output per person (3.7x against 2.3x for Lake) and it points the same way: the councils that serve the lowest-output people have the least own revenue to spend on them, which is the case for equalising transfers from the centre. South Eastern is the exception: at TZS 37,000 per person it is well above its output-per-person ranking.

Local Government Own-Source Revenue Per Person, 2025/26

TZS thousand per person. Source: BoT Table 4.3; TICGL calc.

5.5 Concentration of demand

Dar es Salaam has 8.9% of people and 17.0% of output. Its 5.9 million residents produce TZS 39.8 trillion, 1.49 times the TZS 26.7 trillion produced by the 13.6 million people in the five lowest regions (Simiyu, Kagera, Singida, Dodoma, Pwani), while the 14 regions below the average combined (36.6 million people) produce 39.8% of GDP. For firms, the largest market by population is not the largest by spending power, and the two overlap only in a few regional cities.

TICGL/TERI reading

The numbers mean three things. First, the gap is mostly structural, set by where non-farm activity is booked, and it is not closing. Second, it overstates the gap in household living standards but cannot be corrected with this report. Third, it matters for decisions today: pricing and format for a Dar es Salaam consumer are different from those for a Simiyu or Kagera consumer, and regional public budgets start from very different revenue bases.

06 - Six-Month OutlookReal Growth Scenarios to March 2027, Watch-List, Policy and Market-Entry Screen

The structural gap cannot change in six months, and the Bank of Tanzania and NBS will not publish 2026 regional output per person until well after March 2027. What can change is real purchasing power, which depends on prices. This tab combines each zone's 2022-25 pace of growth in output per person with the three inflation scenarios from our zonal economy report (Relief, Base, Stress) to show what the next six months could do to real growth per person.

6.1 Real growth per person under three inflation paths

Zone	Nominal growth per person (2022-25 CAGR)	Inflation Mar-27: Relief	Base	Stress	Real growth: Relief	Base	Stress
Dar es Salaam	6.1%	3.1%	5.5%	7.9%	+2.9%	+0.6%	-1.6%
Northern	6.0%	1.5%	3.8%	6.2%	+4.4%	+2.1%	-0.2%
Southern Highlands	5.9%	2.0%	4.4%	6.7%	+3.9%	+1.5%	-0.7%
South Eastern	5.6%	0.1%	2.4%	4.7%	+5.5%	+3.1%	+0.9%
Lake	5.5%	1.1%	3.4%	5.8%	+4.3%	+2.0%	-0.3%
Central	5.8%	0.9%	3.2%	5.6%	+4.9%	+2.5%	+0.2%

Source: TICGL calc. from BoT Annex 2 and the zonal CPI scenarios in "Tanzania's Economy by Zone, 2025/26", Tab 7 (flat, +0.25% and +0.5% a month from June 2026). Real growth = (1 + nominal) / (1 + inflation at March 2027) - 1. Indicative: it pairs an annual output growth rate with a year-on-year inflation rate at the end of the window.

Indicative Real Growth in Output Per Person by Zone, Three Inflation Paths

Percent a year. Nominal growth at the 2022-25 pace minus March 2027 inflation under each scenario. TICGL scenarios

Base case: real growth per person stays positive in every zone, from +0.6% in Dar es Salaam to +3.1% in South Eastern. Dar es Salaam is lowest because it has the highest inflation (5.5% by March 2027).
Stress case: real growth per person turns negative in 4 of six zones (Dar es Salaam -1.6%, Southern Highlands -0.7%, Lake -0.3%, Northern -0.2%), which would mean falling real output per person in zones holding 69% of the mainland population.
Relief case: every zone gains between about 2.9% and 5.5% in real terms, and the gap narrows slightly in real terms because Dar es Salaam's inflation is the highest in every scenario.
What does not change: the nominal ratio of Dar es Salaam to Simiyu. At 2022-25 growth rates it moves from 3.89x to about 3.91x over six months (a rise of 0.03x), too small to measure.

6.2 What to watch

Indicator	Latest	Reassuring signal	Stress signal
Zonal inflation, monthly	Southern Highlands 8.0%, Dar es Salaam 6.2%, Central 5.2% (Jun-26)	Base-case path: 4.4%, 5.5%, 3.2% by Mar-27	Stress path keeps all three above 5%
Food prices and harvest	Central and Southern Highlands food output -8.8% and -11.3%	Recovery at harvest	A second poor season
Regional GDP for 2026	Not published until after this window	Simiyu and Kagera continue to outgrow the average	Return to 2023-24 pace (about 2% a year in Simiyu)
Local-government revenue per person	TZS 60,000 in Dar es Salaam, 16,000 in Lake	Improving collection in low-revenue zones	Widening gap
Household income and poverty data by region	Not in the zonal report	NBS release	No data: the gap in living standards stays unmeasured

Source: BoT zonal report and TICGL calc.

6.3 Policy options

Add value where the output is produced. Processing, packaging and light manufacturing in the lower-output regions (cotton, grain, fish, timber) would put non-farm output where people live; 47.4% of factory output is in Dar es Salaam on 8.9% of the population.
Spread connectivity and trade routes. 85.4% of port cargo passes through one port; secondary corridors and inland logistics hubs reduce the cost of locating outside Dar es Salaam.
Equalise local public finance. Own-source revenue per person is 3.7 times higher in Dar es Salaam than in Lake; a transfer formula that weights output per person or population would reduce the starting gap between councils.
Target the lowest regions by name. Simiyu, Kagera, Singida, Dodoma and Pwani hold 20.5% of people and 11.4% of output; regional programmes and investment incentives can be targeted by region, not by zone.
Close the data gap. Publish household income, consumption and poverty by region, and a regional real-GDP series, so that the gap in living standards can be tracked.
Bring finance closer. Deposits per person in Dar es Salaam are 26 times those in Southern Highlands (see our analysis of the regional credit gap); local deposit mobilisation and agent banking would let low-output regions retain more of their own savings.

6.4 What it means for investors and market-entry decisions

Zone	People (m)	Per person (TZS m)	Index	Growth p.a. 2022-25	Inflation Jun-26	TICGL/TERI reading
Dar es Salaam	5.9	6.78	191	6.1%	6.2%	Premium urban market; highest costs and the highest inflation (6.2%); compete on quality and service.
Northern	9.6	4.21	119	6.0%	3.3%	Upper-middle market with tourism and hospitality links; balanced finance; above-average output per person.
Southern Highlands	9.3	3.99	112	5.9%	8.0%	Above-average output per person but the highest inflation (8.0%) and falling deposits; storage, milling and transport.
South Eastern	7.3	3.31	93	5.6%	2.6%	Lowest inflation (2.6%), energy and port growth; near-average output per person; consumer lending needs care.
Lake	21.1	2.89	82	5.5%	3.0%	Largest volume market (21.1 million people); price-sensitive with a Mwanza premium pocket; Simiyu, Kagera, Kigoma need low-cost formats.
Central	12.9	2.46	69	5.8%	5.2%	Lowest output per person; livestock, tobacco and Dodoma-linked demand; falling food output.

Source: BoT Annexes 1-2, Annex 4; TICGL calc. The reading column is TICGL/TERI's interpretation, not a recommendation to invest.

Feasibility studies

Demand sizing by region, not zone, using output per person, population and local revenue; price-point and format design for each tier of market.
Financial models (NPV, IRR, DSCR) tested for inflation and consumer-spending shocks like the scenarios above.

Market entry advisory

Region screening against the indicators in this report, entry-mode choice and partner identification, from first meeting to start-up.
Matching offers to the market: volume formats for Lake, depth and service in Dar es Salaam.

Market research and economic intelligence

Household surveys and price benchmarking in the lowest-output regions to fill the income gap the report leaves.
Scenario updates with each Bank of Tanzania and NBS release, through TERI.

Talk to TICGL/TERI

Request a feasibility, market-entry or market-research scoping call for a project in any region, or a briefing on this analysis.

What We Do →TICGL Markets →TERI Research →✉️ economist@ticgl.com

07 - SourcesMethod & Source Note

Basis

Source report. Bank of Tanzania, Consolidated Zonal Economic Performance Report for the Quarter Ending June 2026, Vol. 11 No. 2: Tables 1.1-1.2 and Annexes 1-2 (regional GDP and GDP per person, 2019-2025p, from the National Bureau of Statistics), plus Tables 3.1, 4.3, 5.x, 6.1, 1.3 and Annex 4 for per-person indicators and inflation. TICGL calculations. People = GDP / GDP per person (for regions and, by summation, zones); ratios, shares and compound growth from published values; Gini and Theil measures weight regions by population; the convergence test is the correlation between the logarithm of 2022 output per person and annual growth 2022-25 across 26 regions; the catch-up arithmetic is (national average / region)^(1/N) x (1 + national growth) - 1; per-person structure indicators divide zone totals by implied population; real growth deflates nominal output growth by average inflation. Scenarios. Real growth = (1 + nominal growth at the 2022-25 zone pace) / (1 + zonal year-on-year inflation at March 2027 under the flat, +0.25% and +0.5% a month paths from our zonal economy report) - 1. Limits. Provisional data; population is re-based between 2021 and 2022, so trends are measured from 2022; GDP per person is not household income; the report has no regional sector, income or poverty data; zone averages hide differences between regions; mixing a calendar-2025 output year with a 2025/26 inflation year is indicative only.

Bank of Tanzania, Consolidated Zonal Economic Performance Report, quarter ending June 2026 (Vol. 11 No. 2), Dodoma, 2026.
National Bureau of Statistics: regional GDP and GDP per capita as reproduced in the report.

08 - Quick AnswersFrequently Asked Questions

How much higher is output per person in Dar es Salaam than in Simiyu?

In 2025 (provisional) output per person was TZS 6,776,483 in Dar es Salaam and TZS 1,742,809 in Simiyu, a ratio of 3.9. Simiyu is the lowest of the 26 mainland regions and has been in every year since 2019. The national average is TZS 3,544,124, so Dar es Salaam is 1.91 times the average and Simiyu is 49% of it.

Has the gap between Dar es Salaam and Simiyu narrowed?

Not materially. The ratio was 4.21 in 2019, 3.74 in 2022, 4.00 in 2024 and 3.89 in 2025, so it has stayed between 3.7 and 4.2 for seven years. Between 2022 and 2025 Simiyu grew 4.8% a year against 6.1% in Dar es Salaam and 5.7% nationally. Richer regions grew slightly faster than poorer ones, so there is no sign of convergence. Simiyu grew faster in 2025 (10.6% against 7.5%), but that is one year.

Is GDP per person the same as income per person?

No. It divides the value added produced in a region by its residents, and includes company profits, taxes and the pay of workers who live elsewhere. Dar es Salaam hosts headquarters, the port and government, so its figure likely overstates the gap in household income. The Bank of Tanzania zonal report has no household income, consumption or poverty data by region; NBS household surveys would fill that gap.

Why is Lake zone 18% below the national average?

Lake zone has 32.0% of mainland people but 26.1% of GDP, which puts its output per person at 82% of the national average. The zone is internally divided: Mwanza is at TZS 4.07 million, above the average, while Simiyu (1.74 million), Kagera (1.85 million) and Kigoma (2.30 million), with about 8.5 million people, are 35-51% below it. Lake also accounts for 69.3% of mineral recovery, so output per person is not simply a function of mining.

Which regions have the lowest output per person?

Simiyu (TZS 1.74 million), Kagera (1.85 million), Singida (1.99 million), Dodoma (2.11 million) and Pwani (2.16 million) are the five lowest. Together they have 20.5% of the mainland population and 11.4% of GDP. Fourteen of the 26 regions are below the national average and hold 55.4% of people.

What happens to the gap over the next six months, October 2026 to March 2027?

The structural gap will not change, and 2026 regional figures will not be published until after the window. What can change is real purchasing power. At the 2022-25 pace of growth and base-case inflation, real output per person grows in every zone, thinnest in Dar es Salaam (about +0.6%). Under a stress case with prices rising 0.5% a month it turns negative in Dar es Salaam, Southern Highlands, Lake and Northern.

Muhtasari

Muhtasari kwa Kiswahili

Pato kwa kila mtu: Dar es Salaam na Simiyu. Kwa mujibu wa takwimu za NBS zilizomo kwenye Ripoti ya Benki Kuu ya Tanzania ya Utendaji wa Kiuchumi wa Kanda (Juni 2026), pato kwa kila mtu mwaka 2025 lilikuwa shilingi milioni 6.78 Dar es Salaam na milioni 1.74 Simiyu, yaani mara 3.9. Simiyu imekuwa mkoa wa chini kuliko yote kila mwaka tangu 2019. Wastani wa nchi ni milioni 3.54.

Je, pengo linapungua? Hapana kwa kiasi kikubwa. Uwiano umebaki kati ya 3.7 na 4.2 kila mwaka tangu 2019. Mwaka 2022-2025 Simiyu ilikua asilimia 4.8 kwa mwaka, Dar es Salaam asilimia 6.1 na nchi asilimia 5.7. Mikoa tajiri ilikua kwa kasi kidogo zaidi kuliko maskini, kwa hiyo hakuna dalili ya kukaribiana. Kwa kasi ya sasa uwiano ungefikia takriban 4.4 baada ya miaka 10 na 5.0 baada ya miaka 20.

Kanda ya Ziwa: ina asilimia 32.0 ya watu lakini asilimia 26.1 ya pato, kwa hiyo pato kwa kila mtu ni asilimia 18 chini ya wastani. Ndani ya kanda tofauti ni kubwa: Mwanza (milioni 4.07) iko juu ya wastani, wakati Simiyu (1.74), Kagera (1.85) na Kigoma (2.30) ziko chini sana. Mikoa 14 kati ya 26 iko chini ya wastani na ina asilimia 55.4 ya watu.

Kwa nini pengo lipo? Dar es Salaam ina asilimia 47.4 ya uzalishaji wa viwanda, asilimia 62.8 ya amana za benki, asilimia 88.2 ya kodi na asilimia 85.4 ya shehena ya bandari, ikiwa na asilimia 8.9 tu ya watu. Kilimo pekee hakiinui pato kwa kila mtu: Nyanda za Juu Kusini zinazalisha kilo 757 za chakula kwa kila mtu (mara 2 ya wastani) lakini pato kwa kila mtu liko karibu na wastani. Dodoma, makao makuu, iko ya nne kutoka chini.

Maana yake: Pato kwa kila mtu si kipato cha kaya. Linajumuisha faida za kampuni, kodi na malipo ya wafanyakazi wanaoishi mahali pengine. Pengo la kipato halisi cha kaya huenda ni dogo kuliko mara 3.9, lakini ripoti haina takwimu za kipato au umaskini kwa mkoa. Mapato ya halmashauri kwa kila mtu ni mara 3.7 Dar es Salaam kuliko Ziwa, kwa hiyo halmashauri zinazohudumia watu wa pato la chini zina rasilimali kidogo.

Miezi sita ijayo (Oktoba 2026 - Machi 2027): Pengo la muundo halibadiliki. Kinachoweza kubadilika ni nguvu ya kununua. Kwa hali ya msingi ya mfumuko, ukuaji halisi kwa kila mtu unabaki chanya kila kanda, mdogo zaidi Dar es Salaam (takriban +0.6%). Mfumuko ukiongezeka kwa kasi ya Aprili-Juni, unakuwa hasi Dar es Salaam, Nyanda za Juu Kusini, Ziwa na Kaskazini.

Mapendekezo: (1) Kuongeza thamani mahali bidhaa zinapozalishwa; (2) kupanua njia za biashara nje ya bandari moja; (3) kugawa upya mapato kwa halmashauri kwa kuzingatia pato na idadi ya watu; (4) kulenga mikoa ya chini kwa majina (Simiyu, Kagera, Singida, Dodoma, Pwani); (5) kuchapisha kipato, matumizi na umaskini kwa mkoa; (6) kuleta huduma za fedha karibu na wananchi. TICGL/TERI hutoa upembuzi yakinifu (feasibility), ushauri wa kuingia sokoni na utafiti wa soko kwa mkoa wowote.

Hitimisho: Pengo la mara 3.9 ni la muundo wa uchumi, si la bahati: shughuli zisizo za kilimo zinakusanyika Dar es Salaam, na mikoa ya chini haikaribii. Kulifunga kunahitaji kuongeza thamani ndani ya mikoa yenyewe, na kupima kipato cha kaya ili tujue pengo halisi la maisha.

Pato kwa kila mtu 2025: Dar es Salaam TZS milioni 6.78 · Simiyu milioni 1.74 · wastani milioni 3.54
Uwiano Dar es Salaam / Simiyu: 3.74 hadi 4.21 kila mwaka 2019-2025
Kanda ya Ziwa: watu 32.0% · pato 26.1% · pato kwa kila mtu 18% chini ya wastani

Chanzo: Benki Kuu ya Tanzania, Ripoti ya Utendaji wa Kiuchumi wa Kanda (Juni 2026); NBS; TERI/TICGL, Oktoba 2026. Kwa maelezo zaidi: economist@ticgl.com.

Disclaimer & scope

Prepared by TERI for research and strategic-information purposes only. It is not investment, legal, tax or financial advice and does not state the position of the Bank of Tanzania, the National Bureau of Statistics or the Government. Deposits and loans are as booked by banks in each zone (not by customer residence). The Bank of Tanzania report does not state the causes of the gap or give non-performing-loan data by zone; the explanations below are TICGL/TERI's reading of the figures, each marked by how well the data support it. The outlook (Tab 6) is a set of scenarios, not a forecast of record. p = provisional.

00 - OverviewThe Short Answer: Five Drivers Behind the Regional Credit Gap

Banks in four of Tanzania's six economic zones lent more in 2025/26 than they collected in deposits there: Southern Highlands (loans equal to 153% of deposits), Central (139%), South Eastern (128%) and Lake (127%). Dar es Salaam, by contrast, holds 62.8% of all deposits but only 51.5% of loans, and carries a loan-to-deposit ratio of 75%. This report takes the Bank of Tanzania zonal data and asks why the gap exists, what it does to the real economy, and how it is likely to move between October 2026 and March 2027.

Borrower zones (loans > deposits)

4 of 6

Southern Highlands, Central, South Eastern, Lake

Dar es Salaam surplus

TZS 7.8 tn

deposits minus loans; 62.8% of deposits

Net funding need, 4 zones

TZS 4.65 tn

loans minus deposits, end-June 2026

Southern Highlands deposits

-1.4%

while loans grew +28.1% (2025/26)

Loans as a Percentage of Deposits by Zone, 2021/22 - 2025/26

Percent; 100% = banks lend exactly what they collect locally. Source: BoT Tables 6.1, 6.2; TICGL calc.

Who Funds Whom? Loans Minus Deposits, End-June 2026

TZS billion. Positive (amber) = zone lends more than it collects; negative (teal) = zone collects more than it lends. TICGL calc.

Why the gap exists: five drivers, ranked by how well the data support them

Driver	What the data show	Evidence	Where
1. Thin local deposit base	Deposits are 5-14% of zone GDP outside Dar es Salaam (79% in Dar es Salaam). Southern Highlands deposits grew 1.7% a year since 2021/22 against GDP growth of 9.6%.	Measured	Tab 2
2. Deposits are booked where institutions sit, not where activity happens	Dar es Salaam has 17.0% of GDP but 62.8% of deposits (3.7 times its weight), 88.2% of tax collections and 85.4% of port cargo.	Measured, with an inferred mechanism	Tab 3
3. Weak local savings capacity in farm zones	Food output fell 8.8% in Central and 11.3% in Southern Highlands; their deposits grew 0.9% and fell 1.4%. Southern Highlands cross-border exports fell from TZS 6.6 tn to 1.1 tn since 2022/23.	Measured; causation not proven	Tab 4
4. Credit demand skewed to households and farming	Personal loans are 49% of lending in Central and Southern Highlands and 66% in South Eastern; agriculture adds 33% in Central.	Measured	Tab 4
5. Funding by bank head offices across zones	The four borrower zones need TZS 4.65 tn more than they collect, and Dar es Salaam plus Northern collect TZS 8.87 tn more than they lend: the arithmetic fits an internal funding flow.	Inferred; the report does not show bank-level flows	Tab 3, 5

Source: BoT Tables 1.1, 1.2, 3.x, 6.1-6.3 and Annex 5; TICGL calc. "Measured" means the figure is in the report; "inferred" means it follows from the figures but the report does not state it.

What it means

A loan-to-deposit ratio above 100% is not the same as over-borrowing. Loans are only 8-20% of GDP in the four borrower zones, compared with 59% in Dar es Salaam. These zones are under-banked, and the gap reflects missing local savings as much as heavy borrowing.
The risk sits in two zones. Central and Southern Highlands combine a ratio above 135%, deposits that barely grew, inflation above 5% and loan books dominated by household and farm credit. Together they are the only zones where all four risk flags in Tab 5 are switched on.
Six-month path. If each zone repeats its 2025/26 growth rates, Southern Highlands moves to about 187% and Central to 154% by March 2027 (Tab 6). If deposit growth halves, Lake also rises to 146%. Dar es Salaam stays below 80% in every case.
Policy angle. The issue is not lending that is too high; it is deposit mobilisation that is too low in the zones where lending is rising fastest, and the absence of published credit-quality data by zone.

01 - The Gap in NumbersDeposits, Loans and the Net Funding Position by Zone

The six zones in the Bank of Tanzania report hold TZS 50.0 trillion of deposits and TZS 45.8 trillion of loans (both exclude Zanzibar). The national loan-to-deposit ratio is 92%, which hides two very different groups: Dar es Salaam and Northern, where deposits exceed loans, and the other four zones, where the reverse is true. The table sets out the stocks, growth rates and net position.

Zone (TZS bn)	Deposits 25/26	Loans 25/26	Loans / deposits 25/26	Loans / deposits 21/22	Loans minus deposits	Deposit growth	Loan growth	Share of deposits	Share of loans
Central	4,498.9	6,244.4	139%	91%	1,746	+0.9%	+16.0%	9.0	13.6
Dar es Salaam	31,412.2	23,578.9	75%	76%	-7,833	+32.0%	+18.7%	62.8	51.5
Lake	5,254.2	6,693.9	127%	119%	1,440	+32.2%	+39.0%	10.5	14.6
Northern	5,361.9	4,322.6	81%	72%	-1,039	+22.6%	+23.6%	10.7	9.4
South Eastern	1,604.4	2,056.3	128%	123%	452	+32.3%	+25.7%	3.2	4.5
Southern Highlands	1,893.8	2,906.1	153%	51%	1,012	-1.4%	+28.1%	3.8	6.3
Total (excl. Zanzibar)	50,025.3	45,802.1	92%	80%	-4,223	+25.9%	+22.3%	100.0	100.0

Source: Banks via BoT Tables 6.1 and 6.2; ratios and net positions are TICGL calc. on zone-booked stocks at end-June 2026 (provisional).

Deposits and Loans by Zone, End-June 2026

TZS billion. Source: BoT Tables 6.1, 6.2

Loans Have Outrun Deposits Since 2021/22

Index, 2021/22 = 100. Source: BoT Tables 6.1, 6.2; TICGL calc.

1.1 How the gap has built up

The ratio has risen in Central from 91% to 139% and in Southern Highlands from 51% to 153% over four years, while Dar es Salaam has stayed around 75-83% and Northern has crept up from 72% to 81%. South Eastern and Lake started above 100% and have stayed there (123% to 128%, and 119% to 127%), so for them the gap is a long-standing feature, not a new one. The widening is therefore a Central and Southern Highlands story: loans in Central tripled (x2.95) while deposits did not double (x1.93), and in Southern Highlands loans rose x3.19 while deposits rose only x1.07.

Net Position by Zone, 2021/22 - 2025/26

TZS billion, loans minus deposits. Above zero = zone lends more than it collects. TICGL calc. from BoT Tables 6.1, 6.2

Loans minus deposits (TZS bn)	2021/22	2022/23	2023/24	2024/25	2025/26p
Central	-212	101	722	924	1,746
Dar es Salaam	-3,919	-4,605	-3,604	-3,939	-7,833
Lake	444	936	900	841	1,440
Northern	-863	-1,312	-850	-875	-1,039
South Eastern	192	335	497	424	452
Southern Highlands	-859	-807	-956	348	1,012
All zones	-5,217	-5,353	-3,292	-2,277	-4,223

Source: TICGL calc. from BoT Tables 6.1 and 6.2. Negative = deposits exceed loans.

1.2 The Southern Highlands break in 2024/25

Southern Highlands loans jumped from TZS 1,060.8 billion to TZS 2,268.8 billion in 2024/25 (+114%) while deposits fell by TZS 96.2 billion, taking the ratio from 53% to 118% in a single year. A move of this size looks more like a change in where large loans are booked, or a reclassification, than a sudden rise in household borrowing. It should be confirmed with the Bank of Tanzania before it is used to argue that the zone has become over-indebted. The 2025/26 ratio of 153% is the result of that step plus a further 28.1% rise in loans.

TICGL/TERI reading

Dar es Salaam collects TZS 7.8 trillion more than it lends and Northern TZS 1.0 trillion more; the four borrower zones lend TZS 4.65 trillion more than they collect. That leaves TZS 4.2 trillion of deposits nationwide that were not lent at all. The report does not say where it sits; the usual candidates are reserves and government securities, which links this page to our analysis of the crowding-out problem.

02 - Driver 1A Thin Local Deposit Base

The first and best-supported explanation is that outside Dar es Salaam there is simply not much deposit money booked locally. Depositing needs income left over after consumption, a bank within reach, and an institution that holds its accounts in that zone. All three are weaker in the four borrower zones, and in two of them the deposit base has barely moved in four years.

Zone	GDP per person (TZS m)	Deposits per person (TZS '000)	Loans per person (TZS '000)	Deposits / GDP	Loans / GDP	Deposit growth p.a. 21/22-25/26	GDP growth p.a. 2021-25	Agents per 10,000 people
Central	2.46	349	485	14.2%	19.7%	17.8%	9.8%	20.5
Dar es Salaam	6.78	5,347	4,014	78.9%	59.2%	18.1%	9.7%	102.1
Lake	2.89	249	317	8.6%	11.0%	23.2%	9.7%	18.4
Northern	4.21	560	452	13.3%	10.7%	14.9%	9.7%	29.3
South Eastern	3.31	220	282	6.6%	8.5%	18.2%	9.1%	24.4
Southern Highlands	3.99	203	312	5.1%	7.8%	1.7%	9.6%	26.1
Mainland	3.54	757	693	21.4%	19.6%	17.3%	9.6%	29.6

Source: BoT Tables 1.1, 1.2, 6.1, 6.2, 6.4; population implied by GDP / GDP per capita; per-person and growth figures are TICGL calc. Excludes Zanzibar. Deposits and loans are booked by bank location, not by the residence of the customer.

Deposits and Loans Relative to the Local Economy

Percent of 2025 zone GDP. Source: BoT Tables 1.1, 6.1, 6.2; TICGL calc.

Deposits Have Not Kept Pace With the Economy

Compound annual growth, 2021/22 to 2025/26 (deposits, loans) and 2021 to 2025 (GDP). TICGL calc.

2.1 Income and savings: richer zones do not automatically deposit more

Deposits per person range from TZS 5,347,000 in Dar es Salaam to TZS 203,000 in Southern Highlands, a gap of about 26 times, against a gap in GDP per person of only 1.7 times (TZS 6.78 million against TZS 3.99 million). Southern Highlands and Northern are richer per head than Lake, Central and South Eastern, yet Northern holds nearly three times the deposits per person of Southern Highlands (TZS 560,000 against 203,000). Income alone does not explain where deposits sit; the structure of the local economy does. Much of the output of Southern Highlands and Lake is farm, forest and mining value that is sold to buyers, processors and exporters, and where their accounts are held is not shown in the report.

Output Per Person vs Deposits Per Person

x = GDP per person (TZS million); y = deposits per person (TZS thousand); bubble size = population. Source: BoT Tables 1.1, 1.2, 6.1; TICGL calc.

2.2 Reach: bank agents and access

Agent banking is the main way banks extend deposit-taking beyond branches. Dar es Salaam has 102 agents per 10,000 people; the other zones have between 18 (Lake) and 29 (Northern). Lake, with 21.1 million people and the largest economy, has the lowest agent density. The agent network grew 25.6% nationally in 2025/26, but more points of contact do not guarantee more money held locally: in Central the number of agents grew 29.7% while bank deposits grew 0.9%.

Bank Agents per 10,000 People, 2025/26

Agents per 10,000 residents. Source: BoT Table 6.4; TICGL calc. using implied population

What this driver explains

It explains the level of the ratio in all four borrower zones: with deposits equal to only 5-14% of GDP, even modest local lending pushes the ratio above 100%. It does not on its own explain the rise in Central and Southern Highlands; Tabs 3 and 4 add the other pieces.

03 - Driver 2Where Money Is Booked: Dar es Salaam as the Deposit Centre

The second explanation is about accounting geography. The Bank of Tanzania reports deposits and loans by the zone in which the bank records them, which is where the branch, head office or treasury sits, not necessarily where the customer lives or earns. Dar es Salaam is where the Government, large companies, many banks' head offices, the port and the Revenue Authority are located, so deposits from all over the country are booked there.

How Much of Tanzania Sits in Dar es Salaam?

Dar es Salaam share of the mainland total, percent. Source: BoT Tables 1.1, 1.2, 3.x, 4.1, 5.x, 6.1, 6.2; TICGL calc.

Dar es Salaam share of mainland total	%
Population (implied)	8.9
GDP, 2025	17.0
Manufactured output, 2025/26	47.4
Loans, end-June 2026	51.5
Deposits, end-June 2026	62.8
Port cargo, 2025/26	85.4
Tax collections, 2025/26	88.2

Source: TICGL calc. from BoT Tables 1.1, 1.2, 3.x, 4.1, 5.x, 6.1 and 6.2. Population is implied by GDP / GDP per capita.

3.1 Deposits are worth 3.7 times more to Dar es Salaam than its economy suggests

Dar es Salaam produces 17.0% of mainland GDP and holds 62.8% of deposits: a deposit-to-GDP weight of 3.7. Lake produces 26.1% of GDP and holds 10.5% of deposits (0.40); Southern Highlands 15.9% and 3.8% (0.24); South Eastern 10.3% and 3.2% (0.31); Central 13.5% and 9.0% (0.66); Northern 17.2% and 10.7% (0.62). Loans are less concentrated: Dar es Salaam has 51.5% of loans, a weight of 3.0. The 11-point gap between its deposit share (62.8%) and its loan share (51.5%) is the mirror image of the borrower zones' funding gap, together with the TZS 4.2 trillion that is not lent anywhere.

Share of GDP, Deposits and Loans by Zone

Percent of mainland total, 2025 (GDP) and end-June 2026 (deposits and loans). Source: BoT Tables 1.1, 6.1, 6.2; TICGL calc.

Zone	Share of GDP, %	Share of deposits, %	Share of loans, %	Deposit weight (x GDP share)	Loan weight (x GDP share)
Central	13.5	9.0	13.6	0.66	1.01
Dar es Salaam	17.0	62.8	51.5	3.69	3.03
Lake	26.1	10.5	14.6	0.40	0.56
Northern	17.2	10.7	9.4	0.62	0.55
South Eastern	10.3	3.2	4.5	0.31	0.44
Southern Highlands	15.9	3.8	6.3	0.24	0.40

Source: TICGL calc. from BoT Tables 1.1, 6.1 and 6.2. A weight of 1.0 means the zone holds deposits (or loans) in proportion to its GDP.

3.2 Productive credit also sits in Dar es Salaam

Table 6.3 of the report splits lending by activity and zone. Dar es Salaam accounts for 70% of manufacturing credit, 81% of transport and communication, 80% of building and real estate, 82% of health, education, utilities and finance, and 89% of "other" lending, but only 30% of personal loans and 13% of agriculture. The credit that funds factories, trucks and buildings is booked where the head offices are; the credit that reaches households and farms is the part left for the other zones.

Dar es Salaam Share of National Lending by Activity

Percent of each activity's national total booked in Dar es Salaam, 2025/26. Source: BoT Table 6.3; TICGL calc.

Source note

The zone columns of Table 6.3 add to 99.7% of national lending and place 47.3% of it in Dar es Salaam, whereas Table 6.2 (loans by booking zone) gives 51.5%. The two tables are not on exactly the same basis, so this page uses Table 6.2 for the loan-to-deposit analysis and Table 6.3 only for lending mix, with each zone's mix computed on its own column total.

3.3 What the report cannot show: the inter-zone funding mechanism

The arithmetic is consistent with a simple story. Dar es Salaam and Northern collect TZS 8.87 trillion more than they lend; the four borrower zones lend TZS 4.65 trillion more than they collect; so a flow of about TZS 4.65 trillion must be moving from deposit-rich booking centres to branches that lend locally, most likely inside banks through head-office treasury and inter-branch accounts. The report has no bank-level or inter-branch data, so this cannot be confirmed from it. What can be said is that the ratio above 100% is a bookkeeping outcome of a network that collects centrally and lends regionally, not a sign that those zones are lending money they do not have.

What this driver explains

It explains why the national picture is balanced (92%) while four zones sit above 100%, and why Dar es Salaam's deposit weight is so large. It also explains why a zone's ratio does not by itself measure its credit risk: it measures how much of a bank's funding comes from outside the zone.

04 - Drivers 3 and 4Farm Incomes, Cross-Border Trade and What the Borrowing Is For

The third and fourth explanations are about who is borrowing and how much they earn. Two zones, Central and Southern Highlands, combine rising loans with weak farm incomes and, in the case of Southern Highlands, a collapse in recorded cross-border trade. The remaining borrower zones, South Eastern and Lake, borrow mainly for consumption and trade respectively.

4.1 Farm incomes and local deposits move together in the zones that matter

Food-crop production fell 8.8% in Central and 11.3% in Southern Highlands in 2025/26, the only two zones with a decline. In the same year nominal GDP grew 10.3% and 11.0% there, so recorded activity kept pace while physical output did not. The deposit data tell a clearer story: Central deposits grew 0.9% and Southern Highlands deposits fell 1.4%, against 22.6% to 32.3% in the other four zones. Loans kept growing, by 16.0% and 28.1%.

Zone	Food-crop output 25/26	Nominal GDP 2025	Deposit growth	Loan growth	Inflation Jun-26	Food inflation Jun-26
Central	-8.8%	+10.3%	+0.9%	+16.0%	5.2%	5.0%
Dar es Salaam	+17.1%	+10.0%	+32.0%	+18.7%	6.2%	6.3%
Lake	+41.2%	+11.0%	+32.2%	+39.0%	3.0%	2.2%
Northern	+9.0%	+9.8%	+22.6%	+23.6%	3.3%	3.8%
South Eastern	+14.1%	+10.1%	+32.3%	+25.7%	2.6%	2.3%
Southern Highlands	-11.3%	+11.0%	-1.4%	+28.1%	8.0%	15.1%

Source: BoT Tables 3.1 (food crops), 1.1 (GDP), 6.1, 6.2; Annex 4 (inflation). Growth rates are TICGL calc.; food inflation is year-on-year, June 2026.

Farm Output, Deposits and Loans in 2025/26

Percent change on 2024/25. Source: BoT Tables 3.1, 6.1, 6.2; TICGL calc.

4.2 Southern Highlands: trade, deposits and a loan jump

Recorded cross-border exports from Southern Highlands fell from TZS 6.45 trillion in 2021/22 and 6.59 trillion in 2022/23 to TZS 1.28 trillion in 2023/24, and have stayed near that level (TZS 1.09 trillion in 2025/26). The zone's deposits, which had been growing slowly, stopped growing in the same period: TZS 2,016.9 billion in 2023/24, 1,920.7 billion in 2024/25 and 1,893.8 billion in 2025/26. The timing is consistent with a link between lower trade earnings and a smaller local deposit base, but the report does not prove one. Loans moved the other way after 2023/24 (see the 2024/25 step in Tab 1).

Southern Highlands: Deposits vs Cross-Border Exports

TZS billion. Bars = bank deposits (left axis); line = recorded cross-border exports (right axis). Source: BoT Tables 5.x, 6.1

4.3 What the borrowing is for

Within each zone's own lending, personal loans take 49% in Central, 49% in Southern Highlands, 66% in South Eastern, 40% in Lake, 44% in Northern and 22% in Dar es Salaam. Agriculture takes 33% of Central lending and 23% of Southern Highlands lending, against 4% in Dar es Salaam. The report does not say what the personal loans fund (salary-backed credit, housing, consumption or small business), so we cannot tell how many are productive. What the data do show is that credit outside Dar es Salaam is mainly household and farm credit, which depends on incomes that were under pressure from food output and prices in 2025/26.

What Each Zone Borrows For: Mix of Bank Lending, 2025/26

Percent of the zone's own lending. Source: BoT Table 6.3; TICGL calc. on each zone's column total

Zone	Personal	Trade	Agriculture	Manufacturing	Transport, building & real estate	Mining & hotels	Services, finance & other
Central	49%	6%	33%	3%	5%	1%	3%
Dar es Salaam	22%	17%	4%	12%	21%	5%	19%
Lake	40%	22%	18%	6%	5%	7%	3%
Northern	44%	14%	13%	10%	6%	11%	3%
South Eastern	66%	17%	11%	0%	4%	0%	2%
Southern Highlands	49%	14%	23%	3%	3%	4%	3%

Source: BoT Table 6.3; TICGL calc. Zone mix is computed on each zone's own column total (which does not equal the Table 6.2 loan share; see the Tab 3 source note).

4.4 Loans are growing faster than the economy, which is partly a good sign

Loans grew between 16.0% and 39.0% in every zone, against nominal GDP growth of 9.8% to 11.0%. Where credit starts from 8-11% of GDP, as in Lake, South Eastern and Southern Highlands, faster growth than the economy is what financial deepening looks like. Lake is the clearest case: loans +39.0%, deposits +32.2%, with trade (22% of its lending) and mining (7%) both active and the zone's recorded cross-border exports up 75.6% to TZS 12.8 trillion. Deposits there are growing nearly as fast as loans (32.2% against 39.0%), so its ratio has risen only 6 points since 2024/25.

Credit Growth vs Economic Growth by Zone

Percent growth in 2025/26 (loans) and 2025 (nominal GDP). Source: BoT Tables 1.1, 6.2; TICGL calc.

What these drivers explain

They explain why the ratio rose in Central and Southern Highlands (weak farm incomes, flat deposits, loans still growing) and why it is a long-standing feature in South Eastern and Lake (consumption and trade credit on a small deposit base). They do not tell us whether borrowers are repaying; the report has no non-performing-loan data by zone.

05 - Economic EffectsWhat the Gap Does to Growth, Prices and Risk

What does a persistent gap between local lending and local deposits do to the economy? The effects run through four channels: funding dependence, the squeeze on borrowers when prices rise, the allocation of credit between productive and consumption uses, and the unevenness of financial deepening. We then combine four observable conditions into a simple risk screen for each zone.

5.1 Four channels

Funding dependence. A zone that lends TZS 0.5-1.7 trillion more than it collects is relying on funds booked elsewhere. If banks tighten liquidity or reprice head-office funding, the first branches to ration credit are those with a thin local deposit base. This makes regional credit more cyclical than credit in Dar es Salaam.
Price squeeze on borrowers. Fuel prices rose sharply in April-June 2026, and inflation reached 8.0% in Southern Highlands and 5.2% in Central by June. Household and farm borrowers on fixed instalments see real incomes fall just when loans are largest relative to local deposits. The report contains no zonal data on arrears, so the effect cannot be measured, only flagged.
Allocation of credit. Productive lending (manufacturing, transport, building) is concentrated in Dar es Salaam, so the capital that raises output per worker is concentrated with it. Credit to the other zones is dominated by personal and farm loans, which support consumption and seasonal working capital more than they raise capacity.
Uneven deepening. Loans are 59% of GDP in Dar es Salaam and 8-20% elsewhere. Even the four borrower zones are under-banked relative to the economic centre; the problem is not too much regional credit but too little regional saving to support more of it.

5.2 A four-flag risk screen

For each zone we check four conditions that can be read directly from the report: loans above deposits; loans growing at least 10 percentage points faster than deposits; June 2026 inflation above 5%; and personal plus agricultural lending above 70% of the zone's lending. The number of flags is a count, not a credit rating, and it says nothing about actual repayment performance.

Zone	Loans / deposits	Loan minus deposit growth	Inflation Jun-26	Personal + farm share	Flag 1	Flag 2	Flag 3	Flag 4	Flags on
Central	139%	+15.1 pts	5.2%	82%	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	4
Dar es Salaam	75%	-13.3 pts	6.2%	26%	No	No	Yes	No	1
Lake	127%	+6.8 pts	3.0%	58%	Yes	No	No	No	1
Northern	81%	+1.0 pts	3.3%	56%	No	No	No	No	0
South Eastern	128%	-6.7 pts	2.6%	77%	Yes	No	No	Yes	2
Southern Highlands	153%	+29.5 pts	8.0%	72%	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	4

Flags: (1) loans/deposits above 100%; (2) loan growth exceeds deposit growth by more than 10 points; (3) June 2026 inflation above 5%; (4) personal plus agriculture above 70% of zone lending. Source: BoT Tables 6.1-6.3, Annex 4; TICGL calc.

Funding Gap vs Inflation, With Loan Book Size

x = loans as % of deposits; y = inflation, June 2026 (%); bubble size = loans outstanding. Source: BoT Tables 6.2, 6.1, Annex 4; TICGL calc.

Share of Zone Lending That Is Personal or Farm Credit

Percent of the zone's own lending. Source: BoT Table 6.3; TICGL calc.

Central and Southern Highlands (4 flags). High ratio, loan growth far ahead of deposits, inflation above 5% and a household-and-farm loan book. These are the two zones to watch first in the next BoT zonal release.
South Eastern (2 flags). Ratio of 128% and a 77% personal-and-farm book, but deposits grew 32.3% (faster than loans) and inflation is the lowest of any zone (2.6%).
Lake (1 flag). Above 100%, but deposits and loans are growing together, inflation is 3.0% and trade and mining are well represented in lending.
Dar es Salaam (1 flag). The only flag is inflation (6.2%). Its funding position is the strongest, which is why it can subsidise the rest.
Northern (0 flags). A balanced zone: 81% ratio, deposits and loans growing in step, inflation 3.3%.

What the screen cannot say

The report has no non-performing-loan, interest-rate or loan-size data by zone. A high-flag zone is where stress is most likely to appear first, not where it has appeared. Asking the Bank of Tanzania for zonal NPL data would turn this screen into a measured risk map.

06 - Six-Month OutlookScenarios to March 2027, Watch-List, Policy and Entry Screen

This tab projects each zone's loans and deposits to end-March 2027, nine months after the June 2026 base (a factor of (1+g) to the power 0.75). The three scenarios are mechanical and transparent, so that readers can reproduce them from Tab 1: Momentum (each zone repeats its 2025/26 growth in loans and deposits), Parallel growth (loans and deposits both grow 20% a year in every zone, so ratios stay where they are) and Savings squeeze (loans keep their 2025/26 pace but deposit growth halves, for example because higher living costs cut saving). They are scenarios, not forecasts of record.

Zone	Loans / deposits Jun-26	Mar-27 Momentum	Mar-27 Parallel	Mar-27 Squeeze	Loans minus deposits, Momentum (TZS bn)	Loans minus deposits, Squeeze (TZS bn)
Central	139%	154%	139%	155%	2,451	2,467
Dar es Salaam	75%	69%	75%	76%	-11,862	-8,292
Lake	127%	132%	127%	146%	2,091	2,693
Northern	81%	81%	81%	87%	-1,181	-744
South Eastern	128%	123%	128%	136%	461	646
Southern Highlands	153%	187%	153%	186%	1,625	1,615
All zones	92%	89%	92%	97%	-6,415	-1,615

Source: TICGL calc. from BoT Tables 6.1 and 6.2 (June 2026 base). Excludes Zanzibar. Momentum extends 2025/26 growth rates for nine months and is a mechanical extrapolation, not an expectation: the Southern Highlands result in particular reflects the 2024/25 loan step and a falling deposit base.

Loans as a Percentage of Deposits: June 2026 and End-March 2027

Percent, by zone, under three scenarios. TICGL calc.

Funding Gap by Zone, June 2026 vs March 2027 (Momentum)

TZS billion, loans minus deposits. TICGL calc.

6.1 Reading the scenarios

Under Momentum the ratio rises where deposits are weakest. Southern Highlands moves from 153% to about 187% and Central from 139% to 154%; Lake goes from 127% to 132%. South Eastern drifts down from 128% to 123% and Dar es Salaam from 75% to 69% because their deposits are growing faster than loans.
Parallel growth freezes the picture. If banks and savers grow together, no zone gets worse and the four borrower zones stay above 100%. This is the benign case; it needs deposit growth in Central and Southern Highlands to jump from near zero to 20%, which the 2025/26 data do not suggest.
A savings squeeze is a Lake and Northern story as well. If deposit growth halves, Lake rises to 146% and Northern from 81% to 87%, so the fuel-price shock can push the funding gap into zones that look comfortable today.
Nationally the effect is small. The all-zone ratio would be 89% under Momentum, 92% under Parallel growth and 97% under a squeeze, against 92% in June 2026. The story is about distribution between zones, not the system total.

6.2 What to watch between October 2026 and March 2027

Indicator	Latest	Reassuring signal	Stress signal
Deposit growth in Central and Southern Highlands	+0.9% and -1.4% in 2025/26	Still near zero by the next zonal report	Ratio rises toward the Momentum case
Inflation in Southern Highlands, Dar es Salaam and Central	8.0%, 6.2%, 5.2% (June 2026)	Base-case path eases to 4.4%, 5.5% and 3.2% by March 2027 (zonal economy report, Tab 7)	Stress path keeps all three above 5%
Harvest and food prices in Central and Southern Highlands	Output -8.8% and -11.3%; NFRA purchases -68.5%	A recovery in output and NFRA buying	A second poor season
Zonal non-performing loans	Not published in the report	Publication, and stable ratios	No data: treat as a risk until shown otherwise
Southern Highlands loan booking	Loans +114% in 2024/25	Bank of Tanzania clarification	Further steps without a matching deposit change
Fuel and transport costs	Pump prices up sharply in April-June 2026 (approximate, from Chart 1.2)	Prices ease as the harvest arrives	Prices stay high through the dry season

Source: BoT zonal report and TICGL calc.

6.3 Policy options

Publish zonal credit quality. Non-performing loans, average loan size and interest rates by zone would show whether a ratio above 100% is a risk or just a funding pattern.
Mobilise deposits where lending is growing. Link agent-banking incentives to balances held, not only to transactions, in Central, Southern Highlands and Lake.
Share the risk on farm credit. Credit guarantees and crop insurance for lending in zones with falling food output (Central, Southern Highlands), so that a poor season does not turn into arrears.
Route crop and trade proceeds through local accounts. Cooperative and warehouse-receipt payments that settle into zone-based accounts would keep more of the value chain's deposits where the output is produced.
Watch consumer credit. Personal loans are two-thirds of South Eastern lending and about half of Central and Southern Highlands lending; affordability checks matter most when inflation is rising.
Disclose inter-zone funding. A simple statistic on bank funding flows between zones would settle the question the report cannot answer.

6.4 What it means for investors and lenders: a zone entry screen

Zone	Deposits per person (TZS '000)	Loans per person (TZS '000)	Loans / deposits	Agents per 10,000	Risk flags	TICGL/TERI reading
Central	349	485	139%	20	4	Deposit mobilisation, agri-credit with risk-sharing, livestock and tobacco value chains; verify repayment before scaling consumer lending.
Dar es Salaam	5,347	4,014	75%	102	1	Deep, institution-led market with the lowest ratio; competition is high and price pressure is the highest of any zone.
Lake	249	317	127%	18	1	Trade- and mining-linked SME finance, payments and cold-chain; lowest agent density (18 per 10,000) for the largest economy.
Northern	560	452	81%	29	0	Balanced funding position; hospitality and tourism supply chains (11% of its lending).
South Eastern	220	282	128%	24	2	Fast agent growth and low inflation; consumer-credit discipline needed (66% personal lending).
Southern Highlands	203	312	153%	26	4	Deposit gathering and storage-linked finance; confirm the 2024/25 loan step before extending credit.

Source: BoT Tables 6.1, 6.2, 6.4 and TICGL calc. as in Tabs 2 and 5. The reading column is TICGL/TERI's interpretation of these indicators, not a recommendation to lend or invest.

Feasibility studies

Full feasibility for branches, agent networks, microfinance and fintech products by zone, with demand sized on deposits and loans per person and local income.
Financial models (NPV, IRR, DSCR) stress-tested for fuel, inflation and deposit-growth shocks like the scenarios above.

Market entry advisory

Zone screening against the indicators in this report, entry-mode choice (partnership, agent model, own branch) and licensing support.
Introductions to local institutions and partners, from first meeting to start-up.

Market research and economic intelligence

Regional credit-demand studies, borrower surveys and price benchmarking.
Scenario updates with each Bank of Tanzania and NBS release, through TERI.

Talk to TICGL/TERI

Request a feasibility, market-entry or market-research scoping call for a financial-services or regional-credit project, or a briefing on this analysis.

What We Do →TICGL Markets →TERI Research →✉️ economist@ticgl.com

07 - SourcesMethod & Source Note

Basis

Source report. Bank of Tanzania, Consolidated Zonal Economic Performance Report for the Quarter Ending June 2026, Vol. 11 No. 2: Tables 1.1-1.2 (GDP, GDP per capita), 3.x (food crops), 4.1 (tax), 5.x (cross-border trade, ports, manufacturing), 6.1-6.4 (deposits, loans, lending by activity, agent banking) and Annexes 3-5 (CPI, agents). Underlying sources cited in the report: banks, the National Bureau of Statistics, TRA, TPA and the Ministry of Agriculture. TICGL calculations. Loan-to-deposit ratio = zone loans / zone deposits; net position = loans minus deposits; deposits and loans per person and as a share of GDP use population implied by GDP / GDP per capita; agents per 10,000 = agents / implied population; the lending mix by zone is Table 6.3 divided by each zone's own column total (the columns add to 99.7% and place 47.3% of lending in Dar es Salaam, against 51.5% in Table 6.2, so the two tables are not on exactly the same basis); the four-flag screen counts conditions in Tab 5. Scenarios. End-March 2027 stocks = June 2026 stocks x (1+g)^0.75, with g = 2025/26 growth (Momentum), 20% for both loans and deposits (Parallel growth) and loan growth at 2025/26 pace with deposit growth halved (Savings squeeze). Limits. Provisional data; zone-booked figures; no zonal NPL, interest-rate or bank-level data; the Southern Highlands 2024/25 loan step is unexplained; mechanical scenarios are not forecasts.

Bank of Tanzania, Consolidated Zonal Economic Performance Report, quarter ending June 2026 (Vol. 11 No. 2), Dodoma, 2026.
National Bureau of Statistics: regional GDP and zonal CPI as reproduced in the report.

08 - Quick AnswersFrequently Asked Questions

Why do some Tanzanian zones lend more than they collect in deposits?

Four things line up in the Bank of Tanzania data. Outside Dar es Salaam deposits are only 5-14% of zone GDP (79% in Dar es Salaam); deposits are booked where banks' head offices and institutions sit, so Dar es Salaam holds 62.8% of deposits with 17.0% of GDP; farm incomes were weak in Central and Southern Highlands, where deposits barely grew; and credit outside Dar es Salaam is mostly personal and farm lending. The gap is probably funded inside banks by money moving from Dar es Salaam, though the report does not show bank-level flows.

Which zones have loans above deposits?

At end-June 2026 loans were 153% of deposits in Southern Highlands, 139% in Central, 128% in South Eastern and 127% in Lake. Northern was at 81% and Dar es Salaam at 75%. The national ratio was 92%.

Is a loan-to-deposit ratio above 100% a sign of over-borrowing?

Not by itself. Loans are only 8-20% of GDP in the four borrower zones, against 59% in Dar es Salaam, so these zones are under-banked. The ratio shows how much bank funding comes from outside the zone. The risk is concentrated in Central and Southern Highlands, where loans grew far faster than deposits, inflation is above 5% and lending is mainly household and farm credit. The report has no zonal non-performing-loan data.

Where does the extra money in Dar es Salaam go?

Dar es Salaam and Northern hold TZS 8.9 trillion more deposits than they lend. About TZS 4.65 trillion of that is consistent with funding the four borrower zones; the remaining TZS 4.2 trillion is not lent anywhere in the data, and is most likely held in reserves and government securities, although the report does not say.

What is the outlook for the gap between October 2026 and March 2027?

If every zone repeats its 2025/26 growth, the Southern Highlands ratio rises to about 187% and Central to 154%, while Dar es Salaam falls to 69%. If loans and deposits both grow 20% a year, ratios stay where they are. If deposit growth halves, Lake rises to 146%. The national ratio stays between 89% and 97% in all three cases, so the issue is distribution between zones.

Why did Southern Highlands deposits fall in 2025/26?

The report does not say. Deposits were TZS 2,016.9 billion in 2023/24, 1,920.7 billion in 2024/25 and 1,893.8 billion in 2025/26, after recorded cross-border exports from the zone fell from TZS 6.6 trillion in 2022/23 to 1.3 trillion in 2023/24. Food output also fell 11.3% in 2025/26. The timing fits, but it is not proof of a link.

Muhtasari

Muhtasari kwa Kiswahili

Kwa nini kanda zinakopesha zaidi ya zinavyokusanya? Kwa mujibu wa Ripoti ya Benki Kuu ya Tanzania (BoT) ya Utendaji wa Kiuchumi wa Kanda (Juni 2026), mwishoni mwa 2025/26 mikopo ilikuwa asilimia 153 ya amana Nyanda za Juu Kusini, asilimia 139 Kati, asilimia 128 Kusini Mashariki na asilimia 127 Ziwa. Dar es Salaam ina asilimia 62.8 ya amana zote lakini inakopesha asilimia 75 tu ya amana zake. Kanda nne zinakopesha TZS trilioni 4.65 zaidi ya zinavyokusanya, wakati Dar es Salaam na Kaskazini zinakusanya TZS trilioni 8.87 zaidi ya zinavyokopesha.

Sababu 1: Amana ndogo za ndani. Nje ya Dar es Salaam, amana ni asilimia 5-14 ya pato la kanda (Dar es Salaam: asilimia 79). Amana za Nyanda za Juu Kusini zimekua asilimia 1.7 tu kwa mwaka tangu 2021/22, wakati pato lilikua asilimia 9.6.

Sababu 2: Fedha zinarekodiwa mahali taasisi zilipo. Dar es Salaam ina asilimia 17 ya pato lakini asilimia 62.8 ya amana, asilimia 88.2 ya kodi na asilimia 85.4 ya shehena ya bandari. Mikopo ya viwanda (asilimia 70) na usafirishaji (asilimia 81) pia inarekodiwa Dar es Salaam.

Sababu 3: Mapato dhaifu ya kilimo. Uzalishaji wa chakula ulipungua asilimia 8.8 Kati na asilimia 11.3 Nyanda za Juu Kusini; amana zilikua asilimia 0.9 na zilishuka asilimia 1.4, wakati mikopo iliongezeka asilimia 16.0 na asilimia 28.1. Mauzo ya nje ya mipakani ya Nyanda za Juu Kusini yalishuka kutoka TZS trilioni 6.6 hadi trilioni 1.1.

Sababu 4: Mikopo ya matumizi na kilimo. Mikopo binafsi ni takriban asilimia 49 ya mikopo ya Kati na Nyanda za Juu Kusini na asilimia 66 Kusini Mashariki; kilimo kinaongeza asilimia 33 Kati.

Sababu 5 (hitimisho la kimantiki): Pengo linafadhiliwa ndani ya benki kwa fedha kutoka Dar es Salaam. Ripoti haionyeshi mtiririko wa benki, kwa hiyo hili halijathibitishwa.

Je, ni hatari? Uwiano zaidi ya asilimia 100 si lazima uwe kukopa kupita kiasi: mikopo ni asilimia 8-20 tu ya pato katika kanda hizo nne (Dar es Salaam: asilimia 59). Hatari iko Kati na Nyanda za Juu Kusini, ambako mikopo inakua haraka kuliko amana, mfumuko ni zaidi ya asilimia 5 na mikopo ni ya kaya na kilimo. Ripoti haina takwimu za mikopo chechefu kwa kanda.

Miezi sita ijayo (Oktoba 2026 - Machi 2027): Kama kila kanda itaendelea na kasi ya 2025/26, uwiano wa Nyanda za Juu Kusini unafika takriban asilimia 187 na Kati asilimia 154. Amana zikikua nusu ya kasi, Ziwa linafika asilimia 146. Uwiano wa taifa unabaki kati ya asilimia 89 na 97, kwa hiyo tatizo ni mgawanyo kati ya kanda.

Mapendekezo: (1) Kuchapisha mikopo chechefu kwa kanda; (2) kuhamasisha amana katika kanda zinazokopa; (3) dhamana za mikopo ya kilimo na bima ya mazao; (4) malipo ya mazao kupitia akaunti za kanda; (5) kufuatilia mikopo ya matumizi wakati wa mfumuko; (6) kuweka wazi mtiririko wa fedha kati ya kanda. TICGL/TERI hutoa upembuzi yakinifu (feasibility), ushauri wa kuingia sokoni na utafiti wa soko kwa huduma za fedha kwa kanda.

Hitimisho: Pengo la mikopo na amana linaonyesha benki zinakusanya katikati na kukopesha pembezoni. Tatizo si mikopo mingi, bali akiba ya ndani ndogo katika kanda ambako mikopo inakua kwa kasi.

Uwiano Juni 2026: Nyanda za Juu Kusini 153% · Kati 139% · Kusini Mashariki 128% · Ziwa 127%
Dar es Salaam: amana 62.8% · pato 17.0% · kodi 88.2%
Hali ya kasi Machi 2027: Nyanda za Juu Kusini ~187%, Kati ~154%

Chanzo: Benki Kuu ya Tanzania, Ripoti ya Utendaji wa Kiuchumi wa Kanda (Juni 2026); TERI/TICGL, Oktoba 2026. Kwa maelezo zaidi: economist@ticgl.com.

Disclaimer & scope

Prepared by TERI for research and strategic-information purposes only. It is not investment, legal, tax or financial advice and does not state the position of the Bank of Tanzania, the National Bureau of Statistics or the Government. Historical figures are taken from the Bank of Tanzania Consolidated Zonal Economic Performance Report (quarter ending June 2026, Vol. 11 No. 2); where TICGL/TERI computes a figure it is marked "TICGL calc." The six-month outlook (Tab 7) is a set of scenarios built on that data, not a forecast of record. p = provisional.

00 — OverviewExecutive Summary

Tanzania entered the second half of 2026 with a broad-based expansion and a new price shock. Nominal GDP reached TZS 234.1 trillion in 2025 (+10.4%), tax collections beat their target by 7.1%, bank credit grew 22.3%, gold pushed mineral recovery up 43.3% to USD 5.6 billion, and a 133% food self-sufficiency ratio gives the country a cushion that most of its neighbours lack. The weak spots are visible too: fuel pump prices jumped from around TZS 2,800-2,900 a litre in February 2026 to around TZS 4,200-4,400 by June 2026 (read from Chart 1.2 of the report), headline inflation re-accelerated in five of six zones, Dar es Salaam inflation (6.2%) and Southern Highlands inflation (8.0%) are above the 3-5% band, and growth is concentrated in a few places and a few commodities.

Nominal GDP, 2025p

TZS 234.1 tn

+10.4% on 2024; Lake zone 26.1% share

Tax revenue, 2025/26p

TZS 36.25 tn

+18.3% y/y; 107.1% of target

Food self-sufficiency

133%

25.2 m tonnes, +6%; surplus 6.3 m t

Mineral recovery

USD 5.6 bn

+43.3%; gold 86.3% of value

Bank deposits

TZS 50.0 tn

+25.9%; Dar es Salaam 62.8%

Bank loans

TZS 45.8 tn

+22.3%; personal loans 35%

Cross-border surplus

TZS 11.8 tn

+80.9%; Lake zone gold exports

Headline inflation, Jun-26

2.6-8.0%

Dar es Salaam 6.2%; S. Highlands 8.0%

Growth Scorecard: How Fast Did Each Indicator Move?

Year-on-year change, 2025/26 vs 2024/25 unless noted (percent). Source: BoT zonal report; TICGL calc.

Zonal GDP at Current Prices, 2021-2025

TZS trillion, stacked by zone. Source: NBS via BoT Table 1.1

Key findings

Growth is broad but shallow in per-capita terms. Nominal GDP per capita reached TZS 3.54 million in 2025 (+7.4%), but Dar es Salaam (TZS 6.78 m) is 3.9 times Simiyu region (TZS 1.74 m) and the Central, Lake and South Eastern zones remain below the national average.
Prices are the main near-term risk. Pump prices of petrol, diesel and kerosene rose 4.5%, 7.8% and 0.4% on annual averages, but monthly data show a sharp jump in April-June 2026 that fed through to zonal CPI: Central inflation went from 2.6% (Mar-26) to 6.6% (Apr-26) and Southern Highlands from 2.7% to 7.6%.
Food security is strong on paper, uneven in practice. National production reached 25.2 million tonnes (SSR 133%), yet Central and Southern Highlands production fell 8.8% and 11.3%, Lake zone cereals are in deficit (SSR 96%) and NFRA purchases fell 68.5% to 137,612 tonnes.
Gold is a price story. Gold recovery rose 57.3% to USD 4.83 bn on a 5.7% volume gain; TICGL calc. shows roughly 90% of the increase came from higher unit values. Non-gold minerals fell 8.2%.
Manufacturing and trade are surging from a narrow base. Manufactured goods grew 18.9% (cured tobacco +65.8%, wheat flour +57.0%) and port cargo grew 26.6%, but 47.4% of factory output is still in Dar es Salaam and 85.4% of cargo passes through Dar es Salaam port.
The power system has changed shape. Hydro rose from 33.5% of generation in 2023/24 to 67.0% in 2025/26 as Julius Nyerere output lifted South Eastern zone to 46.8% of national generation, while natural-gas production is 22.1% below its 2022/23 level.
Finance is deepening, but the money sits in Dar es Salaam. Dar es Salaam holds 62.8% of deposits at a loan-to-deposit ratio of 75%, while Southern Highlands (153%), Central (139%) and South Eastern (128%) lend more than they collect locally.
The tax base is geographically narrow. Dar es Salaam collects 88.2% of TRA revenue; direct taxes were the fastest-growing category (+32.5%).

Six-month outlook in one paragraph (October 2026 - March 2027)

Our central case is a strong real economy with a bumpy price path. Headline inflation in the average zone peaks near 5.4% in October-November 2026 before base effects pull it toward 3.8% by March 2027 if monthly price growth stays at +0.25%; a repeat of the April-June pace (about +0.5% a month) keeps it above 6%, while a flat price level takes it to 1.5%. Tax collection, deposits and credit keep growing at double-digit rates, peak-season tourism and the typical cashew and coffee marketing months support external earnings, and hydrology and gold prices are the two swing factors. Full scenarios, tables and a risk register are in Tab 7 and Tab 8.

Reading notes on the source data

Some published totals in the BoT report differ slightly from the sum of their parts (for example 2021/22 tax revenue, where the published total is TZS 21,926.9 bn and the zone rows add to TZS 21,595.0 bn, and some tourism earnings totals); TICGL uses the published totals and flags where it computes. Population by zone is derived as GDP divided by GDP per capita. Zone inflation rates use different CPI weights, so the simple average of zones shown in the outlook is not the national rate. Fuel-price levels for April-June 2026 are read from Chart 1.2 of the report and are approximate.

01 — Growth & ZonesWho Produces Tanzania's Output? GDP by Zone and Region

The Bank of Tanzania report groups the 26 mainland regions into six economic zones. Nominal GDP increased in every zone in 2025, from TZS 211.97 trillion to TZS 234.10 trillion, with Lake zone the largest block (26.1% of output) followed by Northern (17.2%) and Dar es Salaam (17.0%). Because zones differ in size, the per-capita and regional views below matter more for investment screening than the headline totals.

Zone (TZS billion)	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025p	Share 2025	Growth 2025	CAGR 2021-25
Central	21,822	24,234	25,884	28,725	31,677	13.5	+10.3%	+9.8%
Dar es Salaam	27,517	30,515	33,236	36,198	39,808	17.0	+10.0%	+9.7%
Lake	42,092	46,557	50,089	54,987	61,033	26.1	+11.0%	+9.7%
Northern	27,796	30,871	33,273	36,671	40,282	17.2	+9.8%	+9.7%
South Eastern	17,013	18,856	20,281	21,917	24,131	10.3	+10.1%	+9.1%
Southern Highlands	25,752	28,377	30,597	33,477	37,173	15.9	+11.0%	+9.6%
Mainland Tanzania	161,992	179,410	193,360	211,975	234,104	100.0	+10.4%	+9.6%

Source: National Bureau of Statistics via Bank of Tanzania, Table 1.1; shares and growth rates are TICGL calc. Data revised 2021-2024; p = provisional.

Growth by Zone: 2025 vs 2021-25 Average

Percent. Nominal growth, TICGL calc. from BoT Table 1.1

GDP per Capita by Zone, 2021-2025

TZS million per person, current prices. Source: BoT Table 1.2

1.1 Per-capita output and derived population

Dividing zonal GDP by zonal GDP per capita gives an implied population of about 66.0 million for mainland Tanzania in 2025. Lake zone holds 21.1 million people (32% of the total) but produces only 26.1% of GDP, which is why its per-capita output (TZS 2.89 m) sits 18% below the national average of TZS 3.54 m. Dar es Salaam, with 5.9 million people (8.9%), produces 17.0% of GDP and reaches TZS 6.78 m per head, 1.91 times the national average.

Zone (TZS per person)	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025p	Growth 2025	Implied pop. (m)	Index (nat.=100)
Central	2,083,356	2,074,378	2,125,386	2,292,522	2,458,479	+7.2%	12.88	69
Dar es Salaam	4,978,938	5,668,023	5,934,722	6,306,638	6,776,483	+7.5%	5.87	191
Lake	2,132,585	2,464,426	2,531,037	2,689,743	2,891,028	+7.5%	21.11	82
Northern	3,231,974	3,537,727	3,663,858	3,931,570	4,208,017	+7.0%	9.57	119
South Eastern	3,033,980	2,813,249	2,910,795	3,074,748	3,311,954	+7.7%	7.29	93
Southern Highlands	3,310,930	3,352,379	3,467,292	3,689,386	3,986,380	+8.0%	9.32	112
Mainland Tanzania	2,806,299	2,997,593	3,096,626	3,299,637	3,544,124	+7.4%	66.05	100

Source: BoT Table 1.2; implied population = GDP / GDP per capita (TICGL calc.); index = zone GDP per capita as a percentage of the national figure.

1.2 The regional picture: 26 regions, 10 carry 60% of output

Annexes 1 and 2 of the report give regional GDP. Output is concentrated: the five largest regions (Dar es Salaam, Mwanza, Mbeya, Morogoro, Arusha) produce 39.3% of mainland GDP and the ten largest 60.3%, while the ten smallest produce 20.2%. Growth in 2025 was fastest in Simiyu (+14.7%), Njombe (+13.9%), Pwani (+13.5%), Kagera (+12.4%) and Songwe (+11.8%), and slowest in Dodoma and Ruvuma (+8.5% each). Per-capita output ranges from TZS 6.78 m in Dar es Salaam, followed by Iringa (TZS 5.71 m), Kilimanjaro (TZS 5.20 m) and Mbeya (TZS 5.06 m), to TZS 1.74 m in Simiyu and TZS 1.85 m in Kagera.

Ten Largest Regional Economies, 2025

TZS billion (bars) and 2025 growth, % (line). Source: BoT Annex 1; TICGL calc.

Regional GDP Growth Ranking, 2025

Percent change 2024 to 2025, all 26 regions; teal = 11.8% or more, red = below 9.2% (TICGL calc.)

GDP per Capita by Region, 2025

TZS million per person; teal = above national average (TZS 3.54 m)

Full regional table

Region	Zone	GDP 2025 (TZS bn)	Share of GDP	Growth 2025	GDP per capita (TZS m)	Index (nat.=100)
Dar es Salaam	Dar es Salaam	39,808	17.0	+10.0%	6.78	191
Mwanza	Lake	16,749	7.2	+9.8%	4.07	115
Mbeya	Southern Highlands	12,924	5.5	+10.3%	5.06	143
Morogoro	Central	11,410	4.9	+11.4%	3.27	92
Arusha	Northern	11,101	4.7	+9.1%	4.28	121
Tanga	Northern	10,864	4.6	+10.1%	3.80	107
Geita	Lake	10,495	4.5	+11.7%	3.13	88
Kilimanjaro	Northern	10,489	4.5	+10.4%	5.20	147
Tabora	Central	8,668	3.7	+10.0%	2.30	65
Mara	Lake	8,627	3.7	+10.9%	3.26	92
Shinyanga	Lake	8,445	3.6	+10.9%	3.40	96
Ruvuma	South Eastern	8,445	3.6	+8.5%	4.16	117
Manyara	Northern	7,828	3.3	+9.8%	3.73	105
Iringa	Southern Highlands	7,335	3.1	+11.8%	5.71	161
Dodoma	Central	7,168	3.1	+8.5%	2.11	60
Kigoma	Lake	6,343	2.7	+9.6%	2.30	65
Mtwara	South Eastern	6,342	2.7	+9.3%	3.58	101
Kagera	Lake	6,147	2.6	+12.4%	1.85	52
Rukwa	Southern Highlands	5,015	2.1	+9.0%	2.88	81
Pwani	South Eastern	4,749	2.0	+13.5%	2.16	61
Lindi	South Eastern	4,596	2.0	+10.8%	3.57	101
Singida	Central	4,431	1.9	+10.9%	1.99	56
Songwe	Southern Highlands	4,371	1.9	+11.8%	2.94	83
Njombe	Southern Highlands	4,337	1.9	+13.9%	4.53	128
Simiyu	Lake	4,228	1.8	+14.7%	1.74	49
Katavi	Southern Highlands	3,191	1.4	+11.0%	2.46	69

Source: NBS via BoT Annexes 1 and 2; shares, growth and index are TICGL calc. Regional GDP excludes Zanzibar.

TICGL/TERI reading

Two patterns matter for the next six months. First, the fastest-growing regions (Simiyu, Njombe, Pwani, Kagera, Songwe) start from low or mid-sized bases, so their growth is a catch-up signal rather than a sign of rising output weight. Second, per-capita growth of 7.4% in 2025 compares with national average headline inflation of 3.6% in 2025/26 (different year definitions, so indicative only): households gained in real terms last year, but Tab 2 shows that the April-June 2026 price jump erodes part of that gain in Central, Dar es Salaam and Southern Highlands.

02 — Prices & InflationInflation, Food Prices and Fuel: The 2026 Price Shock

Headline inflation averaged 3.6% nationally in 2025/26, up from 3.1% in 2024/25 and still inside the 3-5% target range. Averages hide the trend, however. Month by month, year-on-year inflation was drifting up through the first half of 2026 and then jumped in April-June, when pump prices of petrol, diesel and kerosene rose sharply on higher global oil prices amid Middle East tensions. By June 2026 inflation was above 5% in Dar es Salaam (6.2%), Central (5.2%) and Southern Highlands (8.0%), within the band in Lake (3.0%) and Northern (3.3%), and below it in South Eastern (2.6%).

Annual average headline inflation, %	2021/22	2022/23	2023/24	2024/25	2025/26
National	4.0	4.6	3.1	3.1	3.6
Central	2.3	5.0	2.5	1.5	3.0
Dar es Salaam	3.5	4.0	5.4	4.9	4.8
Lake	6.7	5.0	1.2	2.4	3.6
Northern	2.7	4.5	3.6	1.7	2.9
South Eastern	3.7	3.8	2.4	2.0	3.3
Southern Highlands	4.2	5.0	3.7	3.6	4.7

Source: National Bureau of Statistics via Bank of Tanzania, Table 1.3. Zonal CPIs use different weights, so a simple average of zones is not the national rate.

Year-on-Year Headline Inflation by Zone, June 2024 - June 2026

Percent. Dashed lines = 3% and 5% bounds of the national target range. Source: BoT Annex 4

Average Inflation by Zone: 2024/25 vs 2025/26

Percent. Source: BoT Table 1.3

Food vs Non-Food Inflation, June 2026

Year-on-year, percent. Food June 2025 shown for comparison. Source: BoT Annex 4

Zone	Headline Mar-26	Headline Jun-26	Food Jun-26	Non-food Jun-26	vs 3-5% band
Central	2.6	5.2	5.0	5.4	Above band
Dar es Salaam	4.5	6.2	6.3	6.2	Above band
Lake	4.7	3.0	2.2	3.4	Within band
Northern	2.2	3.3	3.8	3.0	Within band
South Eastern	3.3	2.6	2.3	2.8	Below band
Southern Highlands	2.7	8.0	15.1	5.0	Above band

Source: BoT Annex 4 (twelve-month changes). Band status is TICGL classification against the 3-5% national target range.

2.1 Why inflation jumped in April 2026: a price shock on top of a low base

Annex 3 gives the headline CPI index for each zone, which lets us split the April 2026 jump in year-on-year inflation into two parts: the actual monthly price rise in April 2026, and a base effect because prices fell in April 2025 (in Central and Southern Highlands the index dropped 1.5% and 3.2% in that month). In Central the monthly rise was 2.3% and the base effect added a further 1.5 percentage points; in Southern Highlands the figures are 1.4% and 3.2 points. Base effects work in both directions: the April 2026 step is now in the index, so year-on-year inflation stays elevated until April 2027 unless prices fall back, which is the core of the six-month outlook in Tab 7.

Decomposing the April 2026 Jump in Year-on-Year Inflation

Percentage points. Monthly CPI rise in April 2026 plus base effect from the April 2025 monthly move (TICGL calc. from BoT Annex 3)

Southern Highlands paradox

Southern Highlands has the highest food self-sufficiency in the country (SSR 222%) yet recorded 15.1% food inflation in June 2026. Part of the answer is the low base (food inflation was only 1.7% in June 2025 after a price fall in April 2025); part is transport cost, since fuel prices feed into the cost of moving crops from farm to market; and part is the fall in zonal food production (-11.3%). It is a good reminder that surplus production does not translate into local price stability when logistics costs move.

2.2 Wholesale food prices

Average wholesale prices of selected food crops rose in 2025/26 for every crop except beans (Table 1.4), reflecting depletion of household stocks from the 2024/25 season and higher transport costs. Finger millet (+35.8%), bulrush millet (+14.8%) and rice (+12.6%) rose most. Maize, the staple that matters most for household budgets, rose 9.9% to TZS 83,236 per 100 kg, back to its 2023/24 level after a fall in 2024/25.

Crop (TZS per 100 kg, national avg)	2023/24	2024/25	2025/26	Change 2025/26
Beans	270,402	272,038	255,597	-6.0%
Bulrush millet	123,653	148,375	170,272	+14.8%
Finger millet	159,068	178,569	242,475	+35.8%
Maize	83,739	75,724	83,236	+9.9%
Round potatoes	95,751	100,058	111,644	+11.6%
Rice	254,615	223,302	251,436	+12.6%
Sorghum	135,722	133,158	144,034	+8.2%
Wheat	182,351	164,038	172,882	+5.4%

Source: Ministry of Industry and Trade via BoT Table 1.4; change is TICGL calc. Simple average of zonal prices where available.

Wholesale Prices of Major Food Crops

TZS thousand per 100 kg, three crop years. Source: BoT Table 1.4

Maize Price by Zone

TZS per 100 kg. Source: BoT Table 1.4

2.3 Fuel pump prices

Annual average pump prices rose in 2025/26: petrol +4.5% to TZS 3,202 a litre, diesel +7.8% to TZS 3,194 and kerosene +0.4% to TZS 3,354. Those averages understate the 2026 shock. Chart 1.2 of the report shows pump prices running at about TZS 2,800-3,000 a litre through February 2026 and then climbing to roughly TZS 4,200-4,400 by June 2026 in every zone, with petrol, diesel and kerosene converging. Diesel, the transport and farm-machinery fuel, rose most (+9.2% in South Eastern and +8.1% in Lake and Northern on annual averages).

Average Pump Prices, 2021/22 - 2025/26

TZS per litre, average across zones. Source: BoT Table 1.5

Pump-Price Change by Zone, 2024/25 to 2025/26

Percent change in annual average. Source: BoT Table 1.5

Average pump price (TZS per litre)	2021/22	2022/23	2023/24	2024/25	2025/26	Change 2025/26
Petrol	2,670.2	3,034.9	3,244.8	3,065.4	3,202.0	+4.5%
Diesel	2,559.3	3,160.3	3,229.0	2,961.8	3,194.2	+7.8%
Kerosene	2,522.5	3,365.3	3,243.3	3,340.6	3,353.9	+0.4%

Source: BoT Table 1.5 (National Bureau of Statistics).

TICGL/TERI reading

For businesses, the combination of a fuel-price step and a food-price recovery means transport-intensive and food-processing margins are the first place the shock appears; for households, it means non-food inflation (5.4% in Central and 6.2% in Dar es Salaam in June 2026) is now as important as food. The report attributes the Dar es Salaam slowdown in annual-average inflation to housing, utilities and clothing, which is the opposite of the current trend in monthly data.

03 — Food, Agriculture & LivestockFood Security, Cash Crops, Livestock, Fish and Forests

Food and agriculture are where the 2025/26 numbers look best and where the regional detail is most uneven. National food-crop production is estimated at 25.2 million tonnes (16.4 m tonnes of cereals and 8.8 m of non-cereals), 6% above the previous season, on favourable long rains, subsidised fertiliser, extension services and pest-control campaigns, and on a larger cultivated area (12.06 million hectares against 11.86 million). Production exceeds 2026/27 food requirements by 6.3 million tonnes, lifting the self-sufficiency ratio (SSR) to 133% from 128%.

Zone (tonnes)	2024/25	2025/26p	Change	Requirement 2026/27	Surplus (+) / deficit (-)	SSR
Central	5,167,635	4,710,865	-8.8%	3,701,837	1,009,028	127%
Dar es Salaam	7,577	8,870	+17.1%	1,632,058	-1,623,188	1%
Lake	5,228,890	7,385,377	+41.2%	5,739,908	1,645,469	129%
Northern	2,802,375	3,053,436	+9.0%	2,615,038	438,398	117%
South Eastern	2,621,611	2,990,087	+14.1%	2,007,983	982,104	149%
Southern Highlands	7,955,040	7,056,172	-11.3%	3,183,720	3,872,452	222%
National (total)	23,783,128	25,204,807	+6.0%	18,880,544	6,324,263	133%

Source: Ministry of Agriculture via BoT Table 2.1; change is TICGL calc.; surplus = 2025/26 production less 2026/27 requirement, as published. SSR 0-99% = inadequate, 100-119% = adequate, 120% and above = surplus.

National Food Production, 2021/22 - 2025/26

Million tonnes, cereals and non-cereals. Source: BoT Table 2.1

Production vs Requirement by Zone

Thousand tonnes: 2025/26 production vs 2026/27 requirement (Dar es Salaam is a non-agricultural zone)

Self-Sufficiency Ratio by Zone

Percent; 100% = production equals requirement, 120%+ = surplus (BoT Table 2.1)

Production Change by Zone, 2025/26

Percent change vs 2024/25 (TICGL calc.)

A strong national number hides three soft spots

Lake zone drove the national gain (+41.2% to 7.39 m tonnes) while Central (-8.8%) and Southern Highlands (-11.3%) produced less than in 2024/25. Lake zone is also the only agricultural zone with a cereal deficit (cereals SSR 96%), and Dar es Salaam, with a requirement of 1.63 million tonnes, produces almost nothing (SSR 1%). Food therefore has to move from Southern Highlands (surplus 3.87 m tonnes) and Central to Dar es Salaam and the Lake zone, which makes logistics and fuel costs central to food prices (Tab 2).

3.1 National Food Reserve Agency stocks

NFRA closing stocks of maize and paddy rose 2.5% to 489,998 tonnes, but the flow behind that figure changed sharply: purchases fell 68.5% to 137,612 tonnes (from 436,382 t) and releases to private traders and the World Food Programme fell to 125,537 tonnes (from 298,937 t). About 95% of the stock sits in two zones, Southern Highlands (278,216 t) and South Eastern (187,404 t), against only 19,721 t in Dar es Salaam, where requirements are largest.

Year (tonnes)	Purchased	Released	Closing balance
2023/24	297,421.0	3,605.8	340,478.9
2024/25	436,381.8	298,937.4	477,923.4
2025/26	137,612.0	125,537.4	489,998.0

Source: National Food Reserve Agency via BoT Table 2.2. Stock excludes food in transit.

NFRA Purchases, Releases and Closing Stock

Thousand tonnes. Source: BoT Table 2.2

Where the Reserve Sits, End 2025/26

Thousand tonnes closing stock by zone (BoT Table 2.2)

3.2 Cash crops

Procurement rose for cashew nuts (+6.9% to 439,639 t, with South Eastern zone handling 437,459 t), coffee (+2.7%), cotton (+33.7%) and tobacco (+28.4%), and fell for sisal (-24.1%) and tea (-15.2%). The report attributes the gains to higher global prices, favourable weather, input distribution and extension services, and the losses to weak global demand and weather-affected processing for sisal.

Crop (tonnes procured)	2023/24	2024/25r	2025/26p	Change 2025/26
Sisal	51,812.6	72,409.1	54,922.4	-24.1%
Coffee	69,350.0	71,717.4	73,622.5	+2.7%
Cotton (seed)	282,218.0	149,809.8	200,231.8	+33.7%
Tobacco	155,538.4	127,149.7	163,275.5	+28.4%
Tea	21,062.5	16,267.1	13,795.3	-15.2%
Cashewnut	244,797.0	411,158.9	439,639.4	+6.9%

Source: respective crop boards via BoT Table 3.1; r = revised, p = provisional.

Cash-Crop Procurement, Three Seasons

Thousand tonnes. Source: BoT Table 3.1

3.3 Livestock, hides, fish and forest products

Livestock traded in registered markets grew 16.5% to TZS 3,505.2 billion, with cattle at 88.6% of value. Central zone is the largest market (34.4% of value, after a 27.9% rise) ahead of Lake (23.6%) and Northern (18.0%), and Northern (-1.2%) was the only zone to fall. Raw hides and skins rose 12.1% to TZS 13.2 billion, led by Dar es Salaam (TZS 3.84 bn, 29.1%). Fish sold stayed flat in value at TZS 656.4 billion but quantity fell 12.6% to 85,237 tonnes, so the implied price per tonne rose 13.5% to TZS 7.7 million. Forest-product value rose 16.6% to TZS 1,306 billion, with Southern Highlands at 95.7% of the total.

Livestock value (TZS m)	2023/24	2024/25r	2025/26p	Change	Share 2025/26
Central	669,878	941,504	1,204,414	+27.9%	34.4
Dar es Salaam	354,449	407,539	426,543	+4.7%	12.2
Lake	537,455	660,842	827,828	+25.3%	23.6
Northern	534,670	638,075	630,535	-1.2%	18.0
South Eastern	148,375	147,230	185,207	+25.8%	5.3
Southern Highlands	192,974	214,644	230,717	+7.5%	6.6
Total	2,437,800	3,009,833	3,505,244	+16.5%	100.0

Source: Regional Administrative Secretary Offices via BoT Table 3.2. Species 2025/26: cattle TZS 3,107.0 bn (3.64 m head), goats TZS 273.6 bn (2.30 m head), sheep TZS 124.6 bn (1.46 m head).

Livestock Traded by Zone

TZS billion, three seasons. Source: BoT Table 3.2

Fish: Volume Down, Value Flat

Thousand tonnes (bars) and TZS billion (line). Source: BoT Table 3.4

Implied Fish Price per Tonne

TZS million per tonne = value / tonnes (TICGL calc.)

Forest Products by Type, 2025/26

TZS billion. Total TZS 1,306.0 bn (+16.6%). Source: BoT Table 3.5

Fish by zone	Value 24/25 (TZS bn)	Value 25/26	Change	Tonnes 24/25	Tonnes 25/26	Change
Central	43.8	17.2	-60.7%	3,803	1,708	-55.1%
Dar es Salaam	74.5	95.7	+28.5%	21,500	14,622	-32.0%
Lake	260.6	302.9	+16.2%	23,299	22,579	-3.1%
Northern	56.6	73.0	+29.0%	9,162	11,920	+30.1%
South Eastern	158.5	99.4	-37.3%	25,704	19,675	-23.5%
Southern Highlands	67.4	68.1	+1.0%	14,027	14,733	+5.0%
Total	661.3	656.4	-0.7%	97,494	85,237	-12.6%

Source: Regional Administrative Secretary Offices via BoT Table 3.4. Declines in Dar es Salaam and South Eastern were attributed to strong winds in the Indian Ocean, in Central to lower water levels in Singida and Morogoro.

TICGL/TERI reading

Agriculture supports the six-month outlook through three channels. It lowers the risk that food drives inflation above the target band (SSR 133%, NFRA stock of 0.49 m tonnes), it supports export earnings through cashew, coffee, tobacco and cotton, and it feeds demand for processing capacity. The offsetting concerns are distribution (surplus in Southern Highlands, deficits in Dar es Salaam and Lake) and the collapse in NFRA buying, which removes a price floor at harvest time.

04 — Industry, Mining & EnergyManufacturing, Gold and Minerals, Electricity and Gas

This tab covers the three sectors that move the external accounts and the power bill: manufacturing, mining and energy. All three grew in 2025/26, but each is concentrated in one zone and one or two products, and each has a clear six-month swing factor.

4.1 Manufacturing

The value of selected manufactured products grew 18.9% to TZS 21,250.7 billion, on stronger domestic and external demand. Growth was broad-based across zones except Northern (-13.2%, on plastics, textiles, coffee and tea products), and Dar es Salaam, with 47.4% of the total, rose 33.5%. Cured tobacco (+65.8%), wheat flour (+57.0%), vegetable oils and fats (+52.2%), cigarettes (+52.1%) and ceramics (+26.4%) grew fastest; textiles (-6.6%), plastic articles (-25.0%) and corrugated iron sheets (-7.6%) fell. Six products (cured tobacco, wheat flour, bottled beer, beverages, vegetable oils and cigarettes) account for 44.7% of value.

Zone (TZS billion)	2021/22	2022/23	2023/24	2024/25	2025/26p	Share	Change
Central	995.5	958.3	1,450.9	1,616.2	2,087.2	9.8	+29.1%
Dar es Salaam	6,634.0	7,229.4	8,439.2	7,550.5	10,081.6	47.4	+33.5%
Lake	750.7	955.7	1,077.5	1,236.9	1,470.7	6.9	+18.9%
Northern	1,594.7	1,647.6	2,237.0	3,295.9	2,861.5	13.5	-13.2%
South Eastern	1,970.5	2,222.2	2,950.1	3,232.2	3,805.0	17.9	+17.7%
Southern Highlands	702.4	743.5	770.0	936.1	944.7	4.4	+0.9%
Total	12,647.8	13,756.6	16,924.8	17,867.8	21,250.7	100.0	+18.9%

Source: National Bureau of Statistics and respective industries, BoT Table 3.6a.

Manufactured Output by Zone

TZS trillion, stacked. Source: BoT Table 3.6a

Product Growth, 2025/26

Percent change in value vs 2024/25 (BoT Table 3.6b)

Product (TZS bn)	2023/24	2024/25r	2025/26p	Change	Share of growth, %	Share of total, %
Bottled beer	1,233.7	2,228.8	2,631.1	+18.1%	11.9	12.4
Beverages	2,324.6	2,341.9	2,622.5	+12.0%	8.3	12.3
Cement	2,122.7	2,332.6	2,406.7	+3.2%	2.2	11.3
Wheat flour	1,060.1	939.8	1,475.2	+57.0%	15.8	6.9
Cured tobacco	782.0	855.6	1,418.8	+65.8%	16.6	6.7
Rolled steel	1,158.5	1,123.6	1,298.1	+15.5%	5.2	6.1
Sugar	923.6	796.3	889.2	+11.7%	2.7	4.2
Textiles	505.5	934.4	872.8	-6.6%	-1.8	4.1
Vegetable oils and fats	651.2	463.0	704.9	+52.2%	7.2	3.3
Cigarettes	266.7	424.4	645.4	+52.1%	6.5	3.0
Ceramics	459.0	505.2	638.6	+26.4%	3.9	3.0
Soap and detergents	500.5	539.4	618.1	+14.6%	2.3	2.9
Mattresses	365.4	360.4	353.2	-2.0%	-0.2	1.7
Plastic articles	420.3	315.6	236.7	-25.0%	-2.3	1.1
Corrugated iron sheets	294.7	154.5	142.8	-7.6%	-0.3	0.7
Others	3,856.1	3,552.2	4,296.4	+21.0%	22.0	20.2
Total	16,924.8	17,867.8	21,250.7	+18.9%	100.0	100.0

Source: BoT Table 3.6b; share of growth = product increase / total increase (TICGL calc., agrees with the BoT contribution column).

Volume Check: Quantity Change by Product

Percent change in quantity, 2025/26 vs 2024/25 (BoT Table 3.6c)

Where the TZS 3.4 Trillion Increase Came From

Increase in value 2024/25 to 2025/26, TZS billion (TICGL calc.)

TICGL/TERI reading

Value growth of 18.9% is partly price: in volume terms cement rose 11.1%, wheat flour 11.9%, beverages 5.5% and beer 9.8%, and steel (-2.7%) and sugar (-6.6%) fell. The strongest value-and-volume combinations are cured tobacco (volume +65.1%) and cigarettes (+22.8%); a policy or crop-season shock would hit both. For market entry, the 2025/26 pattern favours food and beverage processing, tobacco, building materials and ceramics, and flags import-competing plastics, textiles and iron sheets as segments under pressure.

4.2 Mining

The value of mineral recovery rose 43.3% to USD 5,598.5 million, led by gold (USD 4,833.5 m, 86.3% of the total). The report attributes the gold gain to quantity and price: volume rose 5.7% to 54.5 tonnes, helped by small-scale miners selling through the Bank of Tanzania domestic gold purchase programme and the Mining (Technical Support for Small Scale Miners) Regulations, 2025, while world gold prices rose 50.4% to an average USD 4,249.6 per troy ounce on safe-haven demand. TICGL calc. on the report data shows the implied unit value of recovered gold rose 48.7%, so about USD 1.58 billion of the USD 1.76 billion increase (90%) is price and only USD 0.18 billion is volume. Everything else fell: coal -24.9%, diamond -21.1%, gemstones -62.4% and tanzanite -62.1%, while limestone (+80.1%), graphite (+39.9%) and nickel (USD 13.3 m from 1.8 m) grew from small bases.

Mineral (USD million)	2023/24	2024/25r	2025/26p	Change	Share
Gold	2,552.1	3,073.5	4,833.5	+57.3%	86.3
Coal	313.7	376.0	282.5	-24.9%	5.0
Building materials	119.0	183.2	182.0	-0.7%	3.3
Limestone	37.9	51.8	93.3	+80.1%	1.7
Diamond	47.4	55.0	43.5	-20.9%	0.8
Graphite	9.3	29.7	41.5	+39.7%	0.7
Industrial minerals	32.1	36.2	32.2	-11.0%	0.6
Gypsum	10.2	12.5	18.1	+44.8%	0.3
Nickel	1.8	1.8	13.3	---	0.2
Gemstones	27.2	29.0	10.9	-62.4%	0.2
Tanzanite	9.1	9.9	3.7	-62.6%	0.1
Total (incl. others)	3,179.4	3,906.7	5,598.5	+43.3%	100.0

Source: Mining Commission via BoT Table 3.7a (selected minerals shown; total includes copper, salt and other items). "---" = change above 100% or not meaningful.

Mineral Recovery by Type

USD million, stacked. Source: BoT Table 3.7a

Gold: Volume Effect vs Price Effect

Change in gold recovery value, USD million (TICGL calc.: volume at prior-year unit value)

Gold Quantity and Implied Unit Value

Tonnes (bars) and USD thousand per kg (line). Unit value = value / quantity (TICGL calc.)

Mineral Recovery by Zone

USD million. Source: BoT Table 3.7c

Mineral market centres show the same picture in shillings: minerals traded in registered markets rose 73.3% to TZS 6,852.1 billion, with gold 98% of the total, Lake zone 58.6% and Southern Highlands 28.1%. Central (+112%), South Eastern (+104%) and Southern Highlands (+84%) grew fastest from smaller bases, while Dar es Salaam (tanzanite and gemstones) fell 56.5%.

Minerals Sold at Market Centres by Zone

TZS billion, 2024/25 vs 2025/26. Source: BoT Table 3.8

4.3 Energy

Domestic electricity generation grew 10.4% to 14,080.1 GWh as hydro output (Julius Nyerere, Mtera, Kidatu and New Pangani Falls) and new solar plants in Lake zone (Ushetu, Bukombe, Kishapu) came on stream. The shape of the system has changed: hydro supplied 67.0% of generation in 2025/26 against 33.5% two years earlier, South Eastern zone now produces 46.8% of the national total (from 8.3% in 2023/24), and Dar es Salaam, once 63.6% of generation, is down to 30.5%. Imports more than doubled to 613.0 GWh (4.4% of supply), mainly from Kenya (350.8 GWh) after the 400 kV interconnector was energised in December 2024, while exports to Kenya fell 79.1% to 7.0 GWh.

Generation by zone (GWh)	2021/22	2022/23	2023/24	2024/25	2025/26p	Share	Change
Central	1,901	1,816	1,962	1,693	1,930	13.7	+14.0%
Dar es Salaam	5,929	6,616	6,916	4,295	4,291	30.5	-0.1%
Lake	69	54	121	174	240	1.7	+38.3%
Northern	304	209	448	400	452	3.2	+13.0%
South Eastern	146	158	901	5,789	6,595	46.8	+13.9%
Southern Highlands	674	612	534	408	573	4.1	+40.4%
Total domestic	9,023	9,466	10,881	12,759	14,080	100.0	+10.4%

Source: TANESCO via BoT Table 3.11. Imported electricity 2025/26: Kenya 350.8 GWh, Uganda 191.4 GWh, Zambia 70.7 GWh (total 613.0 GWh).

Electricity Generation by Zone

TWh, stacked. Source: BoT Table 3.11

Generation Mix: Hydro, Thermal, Solar

Share of domestic generation, percent (TICGL calc. from BoT Table 3.12)

Natural gas moved the other way. Production rose 3.2% to 63,440.5 million standard cubic feet in 2025/26, but is 22.1% below its 2022/23 level because Songo Songo output has fallen from 47,565 to 26,544 MMSCF; Mnazi Bay (+9.7%) now supplies 58.2% of production. Consumption rose 3.6% to 61,956.7 MMSCF: power plants (70.1% of use) burned 3.5% less, as hydro displaced gas, while industry took 19.9% more (17,126 MMSCF) and compressed natural gas for vehicles more than doubled to 1,393 MMSCF as the CNG fleet grew from 7,000 to 16,354 vehicles and filling stations from 9 to 19.

Natural Gas Production by Field

Million standard cubic feet, stacked. Source: BoT Table 3.13

Natural Gas Consumption by Use

Million standard cubic feet, stacked. Source: BoT Table 3.13

Swing factors for the next six months

Gold: with price accounting for about 90% of the 2025/26 increase, every 10% move in gold prices shifts annual gold recovery value by roughly USD 0.5 billion (TICGL calc.). Power: the system now depends on hydrology (67% hydro), so a weak short-rains season would raise thermal burn and imports at a time when Songo Songo gas output is falling. Manufacturing: fuel and input costs are the main pressure on margins in the months ahead.

05 — Tourism, Trade & LogisticsVisitors, Cross-Border Trade, Ports and Airports

Trade, tourism and logistics are the external-facing engines of the 2025/26 expansion. Park visitors rose 7.5% to 2.45 million and park earnings 8.4% to TZS 823.9 billion; the cross-border trade surplus widened 80.9% to TZS 11.8 trillion as gold, rough diamonds and fish exports through the Lake zone surged; port cargo grew 26.6% to 39.4 million tonnes; and air passengers rose 8.8% to 5.25 million.

5.1 Tourism

Growth came entirely from non-resident visitors (+9.9% to 1.87 million, 76.5% of the total). Resident visitors were flat (+0.3% to 575,420) and remain 46.5% below the 2022/23 level of 1.08 million, so domestic tourism has not recovered. Earnings per visitor were flat (TZS 336,400, +0.9%), which means the 8.4% earnings gain is a volume story rather than a pricing story. Northern zone takes 64.9% of visitors and 59.7% of earnings, but Lake zone earns far more per visitor (TZS 533,300 against TZS 309,100 in the Northern zone), reflecting its mix of entry and other fees. Earnings here are park and Ngorongoro fee revenue, not total tourism receipts.

Zone	Visitors 2024/25	Visitors 2025/26	Change	Earnings 2025/26 (TZS bn)	Change	Earnings per visitor (TZS)
Central	187,672	194,259	+3.5%	12.2	+18.5%	62,856
Lake	525,341	555,011	+5.6%	296.0	+10.3%	533,282
Northern	1,462,529	1,590,367	+8.7%	491.5	+7.0%	309,057
South Eastern	76,543	81,840	+6.9%	16.4	+1.6%	200,868
Southern Highlands	26,773	27,438	+2.5%	7.8	+20.9%	282,703
Total	2,278,858	2,448,915	+7.5%	823.9	+8.4%	336,434

Source: TANAPA and NCAA via BoT Tables 3.9a and 3.9b; earnings per visitor is TICGL calc. (zone totals use published zone rows).

Park Visitors: Residents vs Non-Residents

Thousands, stacked. Source: BoT Table 3.9a

Park Earnings and Earnings per Visitor

TZS billion (bars) and TZS thousand per visitor (line, TICGL calc.). Source: BoT Table 3.9b

Visitors and Earnings by Zone, 2025/26

Share of national total, percent

Earnings per Visitor by Zone, 2025/26

TZS thousand per visitor (TICGL calc.)

Museums continued to recover in visitors (+13.9% to 153,695) but not in revenue: earnings fell 11.0% to TZS 909.2 million, concentrated in Dar es Salaam (-19.9% despite 10.3% more visitors), so revenue per museum visitor dropped from about TZS 7,570 to TZS 5,920.

5.2 Cross-border trade

Trade with neighbouring countries recorded a surplus of TZS 11,811.7 billion, 80.9% above the previous year. Exports rose 49.6% to TZS 14,964.4 billion, with Lake zone alone exporting TZS 12,811.3 billion (85.6% of the total, +75.6%) on unrefined gold, rough diamonds and fish products. Imports fell 9.1% to TZS 3,152.7 billion, driven by Lake zone (floor tiles, electronics, fish feed, mining equipment) and Northern zone (animal feed, pharmaceuticals, soap and detergents, lubricants), a substitution the report attributes to higher domestic production. Southern Highlands slipped into deficit (TZS -155.3 bn) as exports fell 20.2% and imports rose 22.3%.

Year (TZS billion)	Exports	Imports	Trade balance
2021/22	12,312.1	5,074.0	7,238.1
2022/23	12,359.3	6,714.6	5,644.8
2023/24	6,545.2	2,654.2	3,891.0
2024/25	10,000.4	3,469.6	6,530.8
2025/26p	14,964.4	3,152.7	11,811.7

Zone 2025/26 (TZS bn)	Exports	Change	Imports	Change	Balance
Lake	12,811.3	+75.6%	1,065.0	-29.7%	11,746.3
Northern	1,018.3	-21.3%	833.1	-10.6%	185.2
South Eastern	42.9	+2.9%	7.4	+311.1%	35.5
Southern Highlands	1,091.8	-20.2%	1,247.1	+22.3%	-155.3

Source: Tanzania Revenue Authority via BoT Table 5.1. Cross-border trade covers land and lake trade with neighbouring countries only; Dar es Salaam and Central zones have no recorded cross-border trade in the table.

Cross-Border Exports, Imports and Balance

TZS billion. Source: BoT Table 5.1

Exports by Zone

TZS billion, stacked. Lake zone drives the surge. Source: BoT Table 5.1

5.3 Ports and airports

Cargo handled at major sea and lake ports grew 26.6% to 39.4 million tonnes. Dar es Salaam handled 33.6 million tonnes (+26.5%, 85.4%), Tanga 2.17 million (+63.3%) and Mtwara 2.22 million (-13.7% on weak global coal demand). Bagamoyo and Mafia appear for the first time (377,300 and 69,500 tonnes), and lake ports on the DRC route grew strongly: Kigoma +54.9%, Karema +54.2% and Mwanza more than doubled, with clinker for cement the main export to DRC. Kilwa (+36.5%) and Lindi (+22.8%) benefited from seafood exports.

Port ('000 tonnes)	2023/24	2024/25r	2025/26p	Change	Share
Dar es Salaam	24,547.9	26,596.6	33,641.6	+26.5%	85.4
Tanga	1,191.5	1,326.4	2,165.4	+63.3%	5.5
Mtwara	1,727.3	2,577.3	2,223.2	-13.7%	5.6
Bagamoyo	n.a.	n.a.	377.3	new	1.0
Kigoma	195.9	216.6	335.6	+54.9%	0.9
Karema	183.3	213.6	329.4	+54.2%	0.8
Mwanza	97.0	91.6	196.4	+114.4%	0.5
Mafia	n.a.	n.a.	69.5	new	0.2
All ports (incl. minor)	28,182.9	31,109.1	39,381.2	+26.6%	100.0

Source: Tanzania Ports Authority via BoT Table 5.2. Minor ports (Kilwa, Lindi, Mbamba Bay, Itungi, Kasanga, Matema) are included in the total but not listed.

Port Cargo by Port, 2021/22 - 2025/26

Million tonnes, stacked: Dar es Salaam, Tanga, Mtwara, others. Source: BoT Table 5.2

Port Cargo Growth, 2025/26

Percent change in tonnes vs 2024/25 (BoT Table 5.2)

Airports handled 148,636 flights (+4.2%), 5.25 million passengers (+8.8%) and 39,483 tonnes of cargo (+6.6%). Domestic passengers grew fastest (+12.8% to 3.00 million) against +3.9% for international passengers (2.25 million). Dar es Salaam accounts for 57.4% of passengers and 75.9% of cargo, the Northern zone for 26.7% of passengers.

Air Passengers, 2021/22 - 2025/26

Million passengers, stacked. Source: BoT Table 5.3

Air Passengers by Zone, 2025/26

Thousand passengers (international + domestic). Source: BoT Table 5.3; TICGL calc.

TICGL/TERI reading

The data point to a trade-and-logistics cycle that is strengthening ahead of the next six months: cargo growth of 26.6% and new ports (Bagamoyo, Mafia) widen capacity, regional cargo for DRC supports lake ports, and tourism growth is entirely foreign. The vulnerabilities are concentration (Dar es Salaam is 85.4% of cargo, Lake zone 85.6% of cross-border exports) and the gold dependency of the surplus, which links this tab back to the price swing in Tab 4.

06 — Revenue, Banking & CreditTax Collection, Local Revenue, Deposits, Loans and Agent Banking

Public revenue and the financial system both finished 2025/26 well ahead of their prior-year levels, and both are heavily centred on Dar es Salaam. Tax revenue reached TZS 36.25 trillion (107.1% of target), local-government own-source revenue reached TZS 1.66 trillion (99.4% of target), bank deposits rose 25.9% to TZS 50.0 trillion and loans 22.3% to TZS 45.8 trillion, and the bank-agent network grew 25.6% to 195,345 agents.

6.1 Tax revenue

Collections beat the annual target in every zone, from 106.5% in Dar es Salaam to 116.0% in Southern Highlands. The report credits economic expansion, taxpayer education and the Integrated Domestic Revenue Administration System. Taxes on local goods and services were the largest component (42.1%), followed by import taxes (39.0%) and direct taxes (18.9%), which grew fastest (+32.5%). Dar es Salaam accounts for 88.2% of the total because it is where large taxpayers and the port are registered, so zonal tax shares measure where tax is collected rather than where income is earned. Tax revenue equals about 15.5% of 2025 mainland GDP (TICGL calc., indicative because fiscal and calendar years differ).

Zone (TZS billion)	2024/25r	Target 2025/26	Actual 2025/26p	Actual / target, %	Growth y/y	Share
Central	405.9	433.7	488.2	112.6	+20.3%	1.3
Dar es Salaam	27,269.4	30,037.4	31,990.2	106.5	+17.3%	88.2
Lake	812.9	845.7	953.3	112.7	+17.3%	2.6
Northern	1,174.4	1,327.9	1,459.4	109.9	+24.3%	4.0
South Eastern	430.1	599.4	662.9	110.6	+54.1%	1.8
Southern Highlands	546.6	600.1	696.3	116.0	+27.4%	1.9
Total	30,639.3	33,844.3	36,250.4	107.1	+18.3%	100.0

Source: Tanzania Revenue Authority via BoT Table 4.1. Gross of refunds; excludes revenue collected by TANAPA, NCAA and TAWA. Growth and ratios are TICGL calc. (the published 2021/22 total does not equal the sum of the zone rows).

Category (TZS billion)	2023/24	2024/25r	2025/26p	Growth y/y	Share
Tax on imports	10,516.6	12,334.7	14,142.3	+14.7%	39.0
Tax on local goods & services	11,146.1	13,137.1	15,260.3	+16.2%	42.1
Direct tax	4,634.8	5,167.5	6,847.8	+32.5%	18.9
Total	26,297.5	30,639.3	36,250.4	+18.3%	100.0

Source: BoT Table 4.2.

Tax Revenue by Category

TZS billion, stacked. Source: BoT Table 4.2

Actual vs Target by Zone, 2025/26

Actual as percent of target (100 = target met). Source: BoT Table 4.1

6.2 Local government revenue

Local Government Authorities collected TZS 1,656.4 billion from own sources (+14.5%), 99.4% of target, supported by point-of-sale devices and online trading of some cash crops. The shortfall sits in the largest urban base: Dar es Salaam reached only 90.1% of target (TZS 349.9 bn) and Central 93.1%, while South Eastern (109.7%), Southern Highlands (107.4%) and Lake (102.0%) exceeded targets. Local revenue equals about 4.6% of TRA collections.

Zone (TZS billion)	2024/25r	Target 2025/26	Actual 2025/26p	Actual / target, %	Growth y/y	Share
Central	213.8	248.3	231.3	93.2	+8.2%	14.0
Dar es Salaam	338.6	388.3	349.9	90.1	+3.3%	21.1
Lake	293.5	337.1	344.0	102.0	+17.2%	20.8
Northern	181.4	208.4	204.9	98.3	+13.0%	12.4
South Eastern	226.8	245.4	269.3	109.7	+18.7%	16.3
Southern Highlands	192.9	239.2	257.0	107.4	+33.2%	15.5
Total	1,447.0	1,666.8	1,656.4	99.4	+14.5%	100.0

Source: Regional Administrative Secretary Offices via BoT Table 4.3; ratios and growth are TICGL calc.

Local Government Own-Source Revenue: Target vs Actual

TZS billion by zone, 2025/26. Source: BoT Table 4.3

6.3 Bank deposits and loans

Deposits rose 25.9% to TZS 50,025.3 billion and loans 22.3% to TZS 45,802.1 billion (both exclude Zanzibar), so the national loan-to-deposit ratio eased from 94.3% to 91.6%. Credit equals about 19.6% of mainland GDP and deposits about 21.4% (TICGL calc., indicative). The zonal split is the interesting part. Dar es Salaam holds 62.8% of deposits (+32.0%) but only 51.5% of loans (+18.7%), a loan-to-deposit ratio of 75%. By contrast, deposits in Central (+0.9%) and Southern Highlands (-1.4%) stalled while loans grew 16.0% and 28.1%, taking their local loan-to-deposit ratios to 139% and 153%. Lake zone loans grew fastest (+39.0%). Banks are therefore moving Dar es Salaam funding into the regions, which is positive for regional investment but also a funding-concentration exposure.

Zone (TZS bn)	Deposits 24/25	Deposits 25/26	Change	Loans 24/25	Loans 25/26	Change	Loans/ deposits
Central	4,457.0	4,498.9	+0.9%	5,381.3	6,244.4	+16.0%	139%
Dar es Salaam	23,800.9	31,412.2	+32.0%	19,861.6	23,578.9	+18.7%	75%
Lake	3,973.0	5,254.2	+32.2%	4,814.4	6,693.9	+39.0%	127%
Northern	4,372.8	5,361.9	+22.6%	3,497.5	4,322.6	+23.6%	81%
South Eastern	1,212.4	1,604.4	+32.3%	1,636.2	2,056.3	+25.7%	128%
Southern Highlands	1,920.7	1,893.8	-1.4%	2,268.8	2,906.1	+28.1%	153%
Total (excl. Zanzibar)	39,736.8	50,025.3	+25.9%	37,459.9	45,802.1	+22.3%	92%

Source: Banks via BoT Tables 6.1 and 6.2; loan-to-deposit ratios are TICGL calc. on zone-booked deposits and loans.

Deposits and Loans, 2021/22 - 2025/26

TZS trillion, end-of-period stock. Source: BoT Tables 6.1, 6.2

Loan-to-Deposit Ratio by Zone

Percent: loans booked in the zone / deposits booked in the zone (TICGL calc.)

Growth in Deposits vs Loans by Zone

Percent change 2024/25 to 2025/26 (TICGL calc.)

Who Gets the Credit? Lending by Activity

Share of total bank lending, 2025/26, percent. Source: BoT Table 6.3

Personal loans take 35.0% of lending, wholesale and retail trade 15.7%, and agriculture 12.9%; manufacturing gets 8.3%, transport and communication 5.4%, building and construction 3.7% and mining 2.6%. Agriculture is the main borrower in Central (4.9% of total lending is booked there), manufacturing and transport in Dar es Salaam, and mining in Dar es Salaam and Lake (1.1% each). Personal and trade lending together are 50.7% of the book, which is consistent with strong household and trading demand but is not the same as investment finance.

6.4 Agent banking

The agent network grew 25.6% to 195,345 agents, with the fastest growth in South Eastern zone (+46.6% to 17,778) and Central (+29.7%). Cash deposits through agents rose 12.6% to TZS 103.3 trillion and cash withdrawals 30.2% to TZS 45.4 trillion, but transaction counts barely moved for deposits (+1.3% to 108.0 million) and rose 7.0% for withdrawals (66.9 million), so the growth is in the size of transactions (average deposit TZS 956,000, up 11.1%; average withdrawal TZS 679,000, up 21.7%), not in more customers served. Transactions per agent fell about 18% (from 1,087 to 895), a sign that the network is expanding faster than usage. Dar es Salaam has about 102 agents per 10,000 people against 18 in Lake zone and 20 in Central (TICGL calc. on implied zonal population).

Zone	Agents 24/25	Agents 25/26	Change	Cash deposits 25/26 (TZS bn)	Cash withdrawals 25/26 (TZS bn)	Agents per 10,000 people
Central	20,340	26,378	+29.7%	12,801.0	6,048.0	20.5
Dar es Salaam	48,144	59,966	+24.6%	32,644.0	12,549.1	102.1
Lake	33,112	38,885	+17.4%	24,099.1	9,672.5	18.4
Northern	22,019	28,038	+27.3%	12,618.6	5,642.5	29.3
South Eastern	12,127	17,778	+46.6%	6,727.1	3,894.8	24.4
Southern Highlands	19,833	24,300	+22.5%	14,397.1	7,629.5	26.1
Total	155,575	195,345	+25.6%	103,286.9	45,436.3	29.6

Source: Bank of Tanzania, BoT Table 6.4 and Annex 5 (excludes Zanzibar); agents per 10,000 people is TICGL calc. using zone population implied by GDP / GDP per capita.

Bank Agents by Zone

Number of agents, stacked. Source: BoT Table 6.4

Agent Cash Deposits and Withdrawals

TZS trillion. Source: BoT Table 6.4

Financial Access Gap: Agents per 10,000 People

Agents per 10,000 residents, 2025/26 (TICGL calc.)

TICGL/TERI reading

The revenue and credit data point to a system with momentum going into the next six months: tax collections 18.3% higher, deposits growing faster than loans, and a wider regional footprint. The two watch-points are funding concentration (the regions lend more than they collect) and credit quality, because personal and trade loans make up half the book while agent-banking usage per agent is falling. Neither the report nor TICGL has non-performing-loan data by zone, so credit risk is a data gap to monitor in Tab 7.

07 — Six-Month OutlookWhat Happens Next? October 2026 - March 2027 Scenarios

This tab turns the June 2026 data into scenarios for October 2026 - March 2027, the six months after this page was prepared. The latest hard data in the BoT report end in June 2026, so each scenario starts from the June base and is projected forward on simple, transparent rules that anyone can reproduce from the tables in Tabs 2-6. They are scenarios, not forecasts of record, and they should be checked against NBS and BoT releases for July-September 2026 as those become available.

7.1 Inflation: base effects and the April 2026 fuel step

We project each zone's CPI index forward from June 2026 at three monthly rates and divide by the index twelve months earlier (Annex 3). The three rates are anchored to the data: Relief (0.0% a month: prices plateau at the June level as fuel eases and the harvest arrives), Base (+0.25% a month, below the 24-month average of about 0.37% because of the 133% food self-sufficiency ratio) and Stress (+0.5% a month, the April-June 2026 pace). The April 2026 step is already in the index, so year-on-year inflation does not fall back automatically: it only declines as the low-inflation months of late 2025 and early 2026 drop out of the base.

Average Zonal Inflation Outlook, July 2026 - March 2027

Percent, year-on-year; simple average of six zones (not the national rate). June 2026 = 4.7%. Dashed lines = 3-5% target band. TICGL scenarios

Zone	Jun-26 actual	Relief Dec-26	Relief Mar-27	Base Dec-26	Base Mar-27	Stress Dec-26	Stress Mar-27
Central	5.2	3.3	0.9	4.9	3.2	6.5	5.6
Dar es Salaam	6.2	4.4	3.1	6.0	5.5	7.6	7.9
Lake	3.0	2.2	1.1	3.7	3.4	5.3	5.8
Northern	3.3	3.3	1.5	4.9	3.8	6.5	6.2
South Eastern	2.6	2.3	0.1	3.8	2.4	5.4	4.7
Southern Highlands	8.0	3.4	2.0	5.0	4.4	6.5	6.7
Simple average of zones	4.7	3.1	1.5	4.7	3.8	6.3	6.1

Source: TICGL calc. from BoT Annex 3 (CPI index) and Annex 4. Year-on-year % = projected index / index twelve months earlier. Zonal CPIs have different weights, so the simple average is indicative only.

Dar es Salaam is the outlier. It starts at 6.2% and stays above 5% through March 2027 in the base case (5.5%) and above 7% in the stress case, because its index has risen every month since late 2025 and the base keeps rising slowly.
Central and Southern Highlands normalise fastest. Their April 2025 price falls created low bases that disappear in April 2026; in the base case Central drops from 5.2% to 3.2% and Southern Highlands from 8.0% to 4.4% by March 2027.
The band is at risk in October-November. In the base case the average zone peaks near 5.4% in those two months, because the flat-price months of late 2025 form the base while the post-shock level keeps rising; a flat price level keeps it at or below 4.4%.
What would change the path: pump-price direction (diesel moves transport and food costs), the pace at which Southern Highlands and Central surplus grain reaches deficit zones, and any non-food pass-through in Dar es Salaam, where non-food inflation is already 6.2%.

7.2 Public revenue: another strong half-year

Tax collections averaged TZS 3,021 billion a month in 2025/26 (TZS 36,250.4 bn, +18.3%). Applying three growth rates to that run-rate, with flat seasonality (a simplification), gives the six-month collection for October-March shown below. Even the low case (+8%) means about TZS 19.6 trillion over six months, because the 2025/26 outturn already sits TZS 2.4 trillion above target.

Scenario (TZS billion)	FY2026/27 total	Monthly average	Six months Oct-Mar
Low (+8% on 2025/26)	39,150	3,263	19,575
Central (+12%)	40,600	3,383	20,300
High (+18%, repeat of 2025/26)	42,775	3,565	21,388

Source: TICGL calc. on BoT Table 4.1; scenarios are run-rate illustrations, not Ministry of Finance or TRA projections.

Tax Revenue: Outturn and Scenarios

TZS trillion. 2025/26 target and actual; FY2026/27 scenarios (TICGL calc.)

7.3 Credit and deposits: growth continues, funding gets tighter

Loans grew 22.3% and deposits 25.9% in 2025/26. Projecting the end-March 2027 stock (nine months after the June 2026 base, so a factor of (1+g) to the power 0.75) at three annual growth rates gives the ranges below. A key watch-point is the loan-to-deposit ratio: if loans grow 25% while deposits grow 15%, the national ratio rises from 91.6% to about 98% by March 2027.

Scenario (TZS billion, end-Mar 2027)	Loans	Deposits	Loans / deposits
Cooling (loans +15%, deposits +15%)	50,864	55,554	91.6%
Central (loans +20%, deposits +22%)	52,514	58,071	90.4%
Hot (loans +25%, deposits +30%)	54,146	60,904	88.9%
Funding squeeze (loans +25%, deposits +15%)	54,146	55,554	97.5%

Source: TICGL calc. from BoT Tables 6.1 and 6.2 (June 2026 base: loans 45,802.1, deposits 50,025.3). Excludes Zanzibar.

7.4 Gold, tourism and electricity: the external and energy swing factors

Gold. Applying the 2025/26 volume growth (+5.7%) and a range of unit-value changes to 2025/26 gold recovery of USD 4,833.5 million gives the annual sensitivity below. Because price explained about 90% of the 2025/26 gain, the outlook for mining revenue, the Lake zone and the cross-border surplus is mostly a gold-price call.

Gold scenario (USD million a year)	Gold recovery value	Change vs 2025/26	Growth
Unit value -20%	4,087	-746	-15.4%
Unit value -10%	4,598	-235	-4.9%
Unchanged	5,109	276	+5.7%
Unit value +10%	5,620	786	+16.3%

Source: TICGL calc. on BoT Table 3.7a; 12-month illustration with volume +5.7%. Half of each annual figure approximates a six-month value.

Tourism. If visitors grow 5%, 7.5% or 10% in 2026/27 (2025/26: +7.5% to 2.449 million), arrivals reach 2.57, 2.63 or 2.69 million, and park earnings at constant TZS 336,400 per visitor reach TZS 865 bn, 886 bn or 906 bn. The risk is that growth depends on non-resident arrivals (76.5% of visitors) and on air and road capacity into the Northern zone.

Electricity. With hydro at 67% of generation and gas production 22% below its 2022/23 peak, the short-rains season is the main variable: a weak season would lift thermal burn and imports (already 613 GWh, 4.4% of supply), while good rains would keep the 2025/26 pattern of surplus hydro and falling gas use at power plants.

7.5 Six-month outlook matrix

Indicator	Latest (BoT report)	Six-month view (TICGL scenarios)	Swing factor	Direction
Headline inflation	Zones 2.6-8.0% (Jun-26)	Average zone peaks near 5.4% in Oct-Nov (base), easing to 3.8% by Mar-27; Dar es Salaam stays above 5%	Pump prices; base effects	Rises, then eases
Food prices	Maize +9.9%, rice +12.6%, millets +15-36%	Easing at harvest as SSR is 133% and NFRA holds 0.49 m t; logistics keep deficit zones higher	Fuel; NFRA buying (-68.5%)	Easing
Tax revenue	TZS 36.25 tn, +18.3%, 107.1% of target	Six-month collection of TZS 19.6-21.4 tn; strong direct-tax growth (+32.5%)	Import prices; compliance	Up
Bank credit	TZS 45.8 tn, +22.3%	Loans of TZS 51-54 tn by Mar-27; loan/deposit ratio 89-98%	Deposit growth; credit quality (no NPL data)	Up, funding tighter
Mining and gold	USD 5.6 bn, +43.3%; gold 86.3%	Value tracks gold price; volume +5-6% trend; non-gold minerals soft	World gold price; small-scale supply	Price-driven
Manufacturing	TZS 21.25 tn, +18.9%	Food, beverage, tobacco and cement lead; plastics, textiles, sheets weak	Fuel and input costs	Up, narrow
Tourism	2.45 m visitors, +7.5%; TZS 823.9 bn	Peak-season gains of +5-10% in arrivals, led by non-residents	Air capacity; resident demand (-46% from peak)	Up
Electricity and gas	14.1 TWh, +10.4%; hydro 67%	Stable if short rains hold; imports and thermal rise if not	Hydrology; Songo Songo decline	Stable, weather-dependent
Trade and ports	Surplus TZS 11.8 tn; cargo 39.4 m t, +26.6%	Cargo growth continues with Bagamoyo and Mafia ports; surplus tied to gold	Gold price; DRC corridor	Up

Source: TICGL/TERI synthesis of Tabs 2-6; directions are analytical judgements on the scenario ranges above.

Bottom line

The most likely six months combine strong real activity (revenue, credit, trade, tourism and manufacturing all growing at double-digit or high single-digit rates) with a price path that stays near or above the top of the 3-5% band until the base effects roll off in spring 2027. The largest downside risks are a repeat of the April-June fuel pace and a fall in the gold price; the largest upside is a harvest-driven easing of food prices.

08 — Risks & PolicyWhat Could Go Wrong and What To Do About It

The previous tabs show an economy that is growing fast and is heavily concentrated. This tab pulls the risks together, ties each to evidence in the BoT report, and sets out the policy instruments that would reduce them. Concentration is the common thread: on the 2025/26 data one zone, one port, one commodity or one product group carries most of the weight in a dozen areas.

Concentration Map: How Much Rides on One Zone, Port or Commodity?

Percent share of the national total, 2025/26 (BoT report tables; TICGL selection)

8.1 Risk register

Risk	Evidence in the BoT report	Likelihood (next 6 months)	Impact	Most exposed
Fuel-price pass-through	Pump prices from about TZS 2,800-2,900 (Feb-26) to 4,200-4,400 (Jun-26); April CPI step of 0.8-2.3% in five zones	High	High	Households in Dar es Salaam, Central and Southern Highlands; transport and food processors
Gold-price reversal	Gold 86.3% of mineral value; about 90% of the gain is price; Lake zone 85.6% of cross-border exports	Medium	High	Mining revenue, external surplus, Lake zone incomes
Hydrology and power supply	Hydro 67% of generation; Songo Songo gas output -44% since 2022/23; imports up 111%	Medium	High	Industry, Dar es Salaam, South Eastern generation zone
Regional food distribution	Surplus 3.87 m t in Southern Highlands vs deficits in Dar es Salaam (1.62 m t) and Lake cereals; NFRA purchases -68.5%	Medium	Medium	Deficit-zone consumers; farmers at harvest
Funding concentration in banking	Dar es Salaam 62.8% of deposits; Central and Southern Highlands loan/deposit ratios of 139% and 153%	Medium	Medium	Regional borrowers; banks
Credit mix and quality	Personal and trade loans 50.7% of the book; no zonal NPL data in the report	Medium	Medium	Banks, retail borrowers
Narrow tax base	Dar es Salaam 88.2% of collections; direct tax 18.9% of total	Low	Medium	Fiscal planning; local governments (Dar es Salaam LGA revenue 90.1% of target)
Logistics bottleneck	Dar es Salaam port 85.4% of cargo growing 26.5%; Mtwara cargo -13.7%	Medium	Medium	Importers, exporters, DRC transit trade
Weak domestic tourism and soft sectors	Resident visitors 46.5% below 2022/23 peak; sisal -24.1%, tea -15.2%; plastics and textiles falling	Medium	Low	Northern-zone suppliers, tea and sisal growers, import-competing manufacturers

Source: TICGL/TERI analysis. Likelihood and impact ratings are analytical judgements (Low/Medium/High), not model outputs.

Upward pressures (growth, prices)	Downward pressures (relief)
Pump prices above TZS 4,000 a litre feed transport and food costs	Harvest-driven easing of cereal prices (SSR 133%, surplus 6.3 m t)
Rising non-food inflation in Dar es Salaam (6.2% in Jun-26)	Base effects as the April 2026 step passes into the index (spring 2027)
Electricity imports and thermal burn if rains disappoint	More hydro and solar capacity, and the Kenya interconnector, widening supply
Credit growth outpacing deposits in the regions	Deposits growing faster than loans nationally (+25.9% vs +22.3%)
Gold-linked exports and revenue exposed to price reversal	New ports (Bagamoyo, Mafia) and rising cargo volumes diversify trade

8.2 Policy instruments

Next six months

Monetary and price policy. Track the pump-price path and the zonal CPI baskets monthly; the Dar es Salaam non-food trend is the early warning.
Food policy. Restore NFRA buying at harvest in surplus zones and rebalance stocks toward Dar es Salaam and the Lake zone (only 19,721 t in Dar es Salaam).
Power policy. Publish reservoir and short-rains contingency plans; protect gas supply to industry (+19.9%) and CNG (+152%).
Revenue policy. Maintain compliance gains; review the 90.1% LGA outturn in Dar es Salaam.

Medium term (1-3 years)

Credit policy. Publish zonal credit-quality and loan-to-deposit data; steer lending from personal and trade toward manufacturing (8.3%) and agro-processing.
Logistics policy. Scale Tanga, Bagamoyo, Mtwara and the lake ports so Dar es Salaam is not 85% of cargo.
Industrial policy. Target import-substituting segments that are shrinking (plastics, textiles, iron sheets) with input-cost and quality support.
Domestic tourism. Recover resident visits (575,000 vs 1.08 m peak) with pricing and packages.

Longer term (to 2030)

Mining value chain. Convert gold-price windfalls into processing, local content and savings rules; grow non-gold minerals (limestone, graphite, nickel).
Regional growth poles. Close the per-capita gap (Dar es Salaam 3.9x Simiyu) with infrastructure and finance in Central, Lake and South Eastern zones.
Data. Add zonal GDP deflators, employment and non-performing-loan series to the BoT zonal report.
Energy mix. Keep hydro, solar, gas and interconnection balanced to reduce weather risk.

"Tanzania's 2025/26 numbers show growth that is real and fast. The question for the next six months is whether prices, power and logistics stay stable enough for that growth to reach the regions that produce the least per person."

— TICGL / Tanzania Economic Research Institute (TERI)

Conclusion

Tanzania ended 2025/26 with nominal GDP of TZS 234.1 trillion, tax revenue of TZS 36.25 trillion, TZS 50.0 trillion in deposits, a TZS 11.8 trillion cross-border surplus and a 133% food self-sufficiency ratio. For October 2026 to March 2027 the central scenario is continued strong activity with inflation near the top of the 3-5% band until base effects fade, a stable-to-tighter funding position in the regions, and two swing factors that matter most: the gold price and the short rains. The policy priority is to keep the price shock from spreading into non-food items while diversifying away from single zones, ports and commodities.

09 — What TICGL DoesFrom Zonal Data to Bankable Projects

TICGL (Tanzania Investment and Consultant Group Ltd), with its research arm TERI, turns national data of this kind into decision-grade work for investors, lenders and government: feasibility studies, market-entry advisory and market research and economic intelligence. This tab applies the zonal data in the BoT report as a first screen. It does not rank zones or recommend investments; it shows which indicators a feasibility or market study would need to test in each zone.

Zone	GDP 2025 (TZS tn)	GDP growth	Per-capita index	Pop. (m)	Loan growth	Loans / deposits	Tax growth	Mfg growth	Inflation Jun-26
Central	31.7	+10.3%	69	12.9	+16.0%	139%	+20.3%	+29.1%	5.2%
Dar es Salaam	39.8	+10.0%	191	5.9	+18.7%	75%	+17.3%	+33.5%	6.2%
Lake	61.0	+11.0%	82	21.1	+39.0%	127%	+17.3%	+18.9%	3.0%
Northern	40.3	+9.8%	119	9.6	+23.6%	81%	+24.3%	-13.2%	3.3%
South Eastern	24.1	+10.1%	93	7.3	+25.7%	128%	+54.1%	+17.7%	2.6%
Southern Highlands	37.2	+11.0%	112	9.3	+28.1%	153%	+27.4%	+0.9%	8.0%

Source: BoT zonal report (Tables 1.1, 1.2, 3.6a, 4.1, 6.1, 6.2, Annex 4); growth rates, ratios and implied population are TICGL calc.

Zone Screen: Income Level vs Credit Momentum

x = GDP per capita index (national = 100); y = loan growth 2025/26, %; bubble size = GDP 2025 (TICGL calc.)

9.1 What the data raises for each zone

Dar es Salaam

47.4% of manufacturing (TZS 10.1 tn, +33.5%), 62.8% of deposits, 102 agents per 10,000 people.
Highest income (index 191) but also highest price pressure: inflation 6.2%.
To test: consumer and industrial demand at higher unit costs; port-linked logistics capacity; margin sensitivity to fuel and power.

Lake

Largest economy (26.1%), 69.3% of mineral recovery, TZS 12.8 tn of cross-border exports, fish value TZS 302.9 bn.
Loans +39.0% but only 18 agents per 10,000 people; per-capita income at 82% of national.
To test: mineral-linked services, cold chain and fish processing, cereal supply (cereal SSR 96%), financial access.

Northern

64.9% of park visitors, 59.7% of park earnings, tax +24.3%; manufacturing -13.2%.
Income index 119; inflation 3.3%, inside the band.
To test: hospitality and tourism-supply chains, air capacity, and why plastics, textiles and coffee-and-tea products shrank.

Central

Largest livestock market (34.4%, TZS 1.2 tn), cured tobacco TZS 1.42 tn (+65.8%), mineral recovery +86.8%.
Deposits flat (+0.9%) while loans rose 16.0% (loans/deposits 139%); inflation 5.2%.
To test: livestock and tobacco value chains, local funding depth, Dodoma-driven demand.

South Eastern

46.8% of national electricity, 437,459 t of cashew procured, manufacturing 17.9% share, tax +54.1%, agents +46.6%.
New Bagamoyo and Mafia ports; mineral recovery -6.6%; inflation 2.6%, below the band.
To test: cashew processing, power-intensive industry, port-linked logistics, ceramics, steel and beverages demand.

Southern Highlands

95.7% of forest-product value (TZS 1.25 tn), SSR 222% (3.87 m t surplus), 278,216 t of NFRA stock, minerals traded +83.7%.
Inflation 8.0% (food 15.1%), deposits -1.4%, loans/deposits 153%.
To test: storage, milling and transport, wood-products processing, and why a surplus zone has the highest food inflation.

9.2 How TICGL/TERI works with this evidence

Feasibility studies

Pre-feasibility and full feasibility across market, technical, financial, institutional, legal and risk components, with PPP structuring for public projects.
Financial models with NPV, IRR and DSCR, tested for fuel, power, exchange-rate and input-cost shocks of the kind shown in Tabs 2 and 7.
Demand and offtake analysis calibrated on zonal data such as GDP per capita, credit depth and cargo flows.

Market entry advisory

Zone and sector screening against indicators like those in the table above, then entry-mode choice: import and distribution, contract partner, joint venture or own plant.
Incentives, licensing and site mapping; partner and supplier identification.
Business facilitation from first meeting to registration and start-up.

Market research and economic intelligence

Demand sizing, price benchmarking and competitor mapping by zone and sector.
Scenario models updated with each Bank of Tanzania and NBS release, as in the six-month outlook in Tab 7.
Policy briefs and SEO-ready research publications for institutional clients through TERI.

Why this matters to investors and lenders

The same national growth rate can mean very different unit economics by zone: a plant in Dar es Salaam faces 6.2% inflation and the highest incomes, one in Southern Highlands faces 8.0% inflation and the lowest local deposit base, and one in the Lake zone faces the fastest credit growth with the thinnest agent network. A zone-level feasibility or market study is the low-cost way to avoid applying a national average to a local decision.

Talk to TICGL/TERI

Request a feasibility, market-entry or market-research scoping call for a project in any zone, or a fuller briefing on this report and the six-month outlook.

What We Do →TICGL Markets →TERI Research →✉️ economist@ticgl.com

10 - SourcesMethod & Source Note

Basis

Source report. Bank of Tanzania, Consolidated Zonal Economic Performance Report for the Quarter Ending June 2026, Vol. 11 No. 2 (Tables 1.1-6.4 and Annexes 1-6). Underlying sources cited in the report: National Bureau of Statistics (GDP, CPI), Ministry of Agriculture and Ministry of Industry and Trade, National Food Reserve Agency, crop boards, Regional Administrative Secretary Offices, Tanzania Forest Services Agency, Mining Commission, TANAPA and NCAA, TANESCO, TPDC, Tanzania Revenue Authority, Tanzania Ports Authority, Tanzania Airports Authority, and commercial banks. TICGL calculations. Growth rates and shares from published values; implied population = GDP / GDP per capita; loan-to-deposit ratios from zone-booked stocks; gold unit value = value / quantity with volume effect valued at prior-year unit value; April 2026 inflation decomposition from Annex 3 index levels; earnings per visitor, fish price per tonne, transactions per agent and agents per 10,000 people. Outlook scenarios. Inflation: June 2026 zonal CPI index projected at 0.0%, +0.25% and +0.5% a month and divided by the index twelve months earlier; tax: 2025/26 run-rate with +8%, +12% and +18% growth; credit: stock at end-March 2027 at the stated annual growth rates (factor of 0.75 years); gold: 2025/26 volume growth (+5.7%) with unit value -20% to +10%; tourism: visitor growth of +5%, +7.5% and +10% at constant earnings per visitor. Limitations. Provisional data are subject to revision; some published totals differ slightly from the sum of rows (2021/22 tax revenue and some tourism earnings totals); zonal CPIs are not nationally weighted; Chart 1.2 fuel prices are read visually and are approximate; the report has no zonal non-performing-loan, employment or real-GDP series.

Bank of Tanzania, Consolidated Zonal Economic Performance Report, quarter ending June 2026 (Vol. 11 No. 2), Dodoma, 2026.
National Bureau of Statistics: regional GDP (Annexes 1-2) and zonal CPI (Annexes 3-4) as reproduced in the report.
World Bank commodity price data as cited in the report (gold: USD 4,249.6 per troy ounce, +50.4%).

11 - Quick AnswersFrequently Asked Questions

How big is Tanzania's economy and which zone is largest?

Mainland nominal GDP was TZS 234.1 trillion in 2025, up 10.4% from TZS 212.0 trillion in 2024. Lake zone is the largest at 26.1% of output, followed by Northern (17.2%) and Dar es Salaam (17.0%). Dar es Salaam has the highest GDP per capita at TZS 6.78 million, 1.91 times the national average of TZS 3.54 million.

What is inflation in Tanzania by zone?

Average headline inflation was 3.6% in 2025/26, inside the 3-5% target. Monthly data show a jump in April-June 2026 after pump prices rose sharply: by June 2026 year-on-year inflation was 8.0% in Southern Highlands, 6.2% in Dar es Salaam, 5.2% in Central, 3.3% in Northern, 3.0% in Lake and 2.6% in South Eastern.

What is the six-month outlook for Tanzania's economy, October 2026 to March 2027?

TICGL/TERI scenarios point to continued strong activity with inflation near the top of the 3-5% band. In the base case the average zonal inflation rate peaks near 5.4% in October-November 2026 and eases to about 3.8% by March 2027; a repeat of the April-June price pace keeps it above 6%. Tax collection, credit and trade keep growing at high single-digit to double-digit rates, with gold prices and the short rains as the main swing factors.

How much tax did Tanzania collect in 2025/26?

Tax revenue reached TZS 36,250.4 billion, 7.1% above the annual target and 18.3% above 2024/25. Direct taxes grew fastest (+32.5%). Dar es Salaam accounted for 88.2% of collections. Local government own-source revenue was TZS 1,656.4 billion, 99.4% of target.

Is Tanzania food secure?

Food crop production was 25.2 million tonnes in 2025/26, 6% higher, with a self-sufficiency ratio of 133% and a 6.3 million tonne surplus over 2026/27 requirements. Distribution is uneven: Dar es Salaam produces almost none of its 1.6 million tonne requirement, Lake zone has a cereal deficit, and National Food Reserve Agency purchases fell 68.5% to 137,612 tonnes.

What drove mineral and trade growth in 2025/26?

Mineral recovery rose 43.3% to USD 5.6 billion, with gold 86.3% of the total. A TICGL calculation shows about 90% of the gold increase came from higher unit values rather than volume (+5.7%). The cross-border trade surplus widened 80.9% to TZS 11.8 trillion on Lake zone exports of gold, rough diamonds and fish, and port cargo grew 26.6% to 39.4 million tonnes.

Muhtasari

Muhtasari kwa Kiswahili

Uchumi wa Tanzania kwa kanda, 2025/26. Kwa mujibu wa Ripoti ya Benki Kuu ya Tanzania (BoT) ya Utendaji wa Kiuchumi wa Kanda (robo iliyoishia Juni 2026), Pato la Taifa kwa bei za soko lilifikia shilingi trilioni 234.1 mwaka 2025, ongezeko la asilimia 10.4. Kanda ya Ziwa ndiyo kubwa kuliko zote (asilimia 26.1), ikifuatiwa na Kaskazini na Dar es Salaam. Pato kwa kila mtu ni shilingi milioni 3.54 kwa wastani, na Dar es Salaam inafikia milioni 6.78.

Bei na mfumuko wa bei: Mfumuko wa bei wa wastani ulikuwa asilimia 3.6 mwaka 2025/26, ndani ya lengo la asilimia 3-5. Hata hivyo, kuanzia Aprili hadi Juni 2026 bei za mafuta zilipanda kutoka takriban TZS 2,800-2,900 hadi TZS 4,200-4,400 kwa lita, na ifikapo Juni 2026 mfumuko ulikuwa asilimia 8.0 Nyanda za Juu Kusini, 6.2 Dar es Salaam na 5.2 Kati.

Chakula: Uzalishaji wa mazao ya chakula ulifikia tani milioni 25.2 (ongezeko la asilimia 6), na uwiano wa kujitosheleza ni asilimia 133. Hata hivyo, uzalishaji ulipungua Kati (asilimia 8.8) na Nyanda za Juu Kusini (asilimia 11.3), na ununuzi wa NFRA ulishuka kwa asilimia 68.5.

Viwanda, madini na nishati: Thamani ya bidhaa za viwandani iliongezeka asilimia 18.9 hadi TZS trilioni 21.25. Madini yalipanda asilimia 43.3 hadi dola bilioni 5.6, na dhahabu ni asilimia 86.3; takriban asilimia 90 ya ongezeko la dhahabu ilitokana na bei, si wingi. Uzalishaji wa umeme ulikua asilimia 10.4, na umeme wa maji sasa ni asilimia 67 ya uzalishaji.

Utalii, biashara na bandari: Wageni wa hifadhi walifikia milioni 2.45 (asilimia 7.5) na mapato TZS bilioni 823.9. Ziada ya biashara na nchi jirani ilifikia TZS trilioni 11.8 (asilimia 80.9), na shehena ya bandari ilipanda asilimia 26.6 hadi tani milioni 39.4.

Mapato na benki: Makusanyo ya kodi yalifikia TZS trilioni 36.25 (asilimia 107.1 ya lengo). Amana za benki zilikua asilimia 25.9 hadi TZS trilioni 50.0 na mikopo asilimia 22.3 hadi trilioni 45.8. Dar es Salaam ina asilimia 62.8 ya amana na inakusanya asilimia 88.2 ya kodi.

Miezi sita ijayo (Oktoba 2026 - Machi 2027): Katika hali ya msingi, mfumuko wa bei wa wastani wa kanda unafikia kilele cha takriban asilimia 5.4 Oktoba-Novemba na kushuka hadi takriban asilimia 3.8 ifikapo Machi 2027; ikiwa bei zitaendelea kupanda kwa kasi ya Aprili-Juni, utabaki juu ya asilimia 6. Kodi, mikopo, biashara na utalii vitaendelea kukua. Mambo mawili yanayoweza kubadilisha mwelekeo ni bei ya dhahabu na mvua fupi (kwa umeme wa maji).

Mapendekezo: (1) Kufuatilia bei za mafuta na mfumuko wa bei wa bidhaa zisizo za chakula kila mwezi; (2) kurejesha ununuzi wa NFRA wakati wa mavuno na kusogeza akiba kwenye kanda zenye upungufu; (3) mpango wa dharura wa umeme kwa mvua fupi; (4) kuchapisha takwimu za ubora wa mikopo kwa kanda; (5) kupanua bandari ili Dar es Salaam isibebe asilimia 85 ya shehena; (6) kutumia faida ya dhahabu kujenga viwanda vya kuchakata na akiba. TICGL/TERI hutoa upembuzi yakinifu (feasibility), ushauri wa kuingia sokoni na utafiti wa soko kwa kanda yoyote.

Hitimisho: Uchumi unakua kwa kasi na kwa upana, lakini unategemea maeneo machache (Dar es Salaam, bandari moja, dhahabu). Changamoto ya miezi sita ijayo ni kuzuia mshtuko wa bei za mafuta usisambae kwenye bidhaa zisizo za chakula na kupunguza utegemezi wa kanda, bandari na bidhaa moja.

Pato la Taifa 2025: TZS trilioni 234.1 · ukuaji asilimia 10.4
Kodi 2025/26: TZS trilioni 36.25 · amana: trilioni 50.0 · mikopo: trilioni 45.8
Mfumuko Juni 2026: asilimia 2.6 hadi 8.0 kwa kanda · uwiano wa chakula: asilimia 133
Hali ya msingi Machi 2027: mfumuko wa wastani wa kanda takriban asilimia 3.8

Chanzo: Benki Kuu ya Tanzania, Ripoti ya Utendaji wa Kiuchumi wa Kanda (Juni 2026); NBS; TRA; TERI/TICGL, Oktoba 2026. Kwa maelezo zaidi: economist@ticgl.com.

Disclaimer & scope

Prepared by TERI for research and strategic-information purposes only. It is not investment, legal, tax or financial advice and does not state the position of the Bank of Tanzania. Holdings in the weekly reports are at face value and use the Bank's investor categories, so they differ from the Ministry of Finance domestic-debt figures in the Monthly Economic Review, which use a different basis and include non-securitised debt. Yields in the "yield curve" tab are weighted average yields from the latest auction of each tenor; the weekly reports do not state auction dates for every tenor, and the Bank's own secondary-market curve (Chart 10) is only shown graphically.

00 — OverviewExecutive Summary

The market is deep but concentrated. Bonds are 89% of the stock; banks and pension funds hold 64%; and in the latest bill auction banks were practically the only bidders. Demand is healthy at long maturities, but the price of long money is edging up.

Treasury bonds

29.99 tn

89.35% of stock

Treasury bills

3.57 tn

+4.3% in a week

Registered clients

34,605

+3,103 this fiscal year

Bank share of T-bill bids

99.98%

Retail: 0.02%

Central finding

Strong long-end demand (25-year bond cover of 3.49x, 15-year cover of 2.43x) coexists with a thin bill market (cover 0.80x), and one plausible link (not confirmed by the data) is that banks prefer longer paper to bills yielding well below the policy rate, while pension funds, which already hold 30% of the stock, were allotted only 7.2% of the last 15-year bond and their holdings did not grow in the week. The Government's funding therefore depends on a small group of buyers.

Stock: TZS 33.41 tn (2 Oct) → TZS 33.56 tn (9 Oct); bills rose TZS 0.15 tn to TZS 3.57 tn while bonds were roughly flat (+TZS 0.01 tn).
Investors: banks added TZS 0.20 tn in a week; retail investors (-0.03 tn) and insurers (-0.02 tn) reduced holdings (TICGL calc.).
Price: 15-year bond WAY 10.79% vs 10.55% at the previous auction; the 364-day bill WAY 6.28%, almost exactly the 6.25% Central Bank Rate.
Next: a 25-year bond auction on Wednesday 14 October; its previous result was 11.48% at 3.49x cover.

01 — HoldingsWho Owns Tanzania's Government Securities

Outstanding government securities were TZS 33.56 tn at face value on 9 October: Treasury bonds TZS 29.99 tn (89.35%) and Treasury bills TZS 3.57 tn (10.65%). The previous week they were TZS 33.41 tn (bonds 89.74%, bills 10.26%).

Holdings by Investor Category

TZS trillions, face value

Weekly Change in Holdings

TZS billion, 2 Oct → 9 Oct (TICGL calc.)

Investor category	2 Oct (TZS bn)	9 Oct (TZS bn)	Share 9 Oct	Change (bn)
Banks	11,232.82	11,432.15	34.06%	+199.33
Pension funds	10,117.52	10,117.34	30.14%	-0.18
Retail investors	5,908.68	5,883.12	17.53%	-25.56
CIS & other official entities	2,713.71	2,714.81	8.09%	+1.10
Insurance companies	2,464.98	2,446.86	7.29%	-18.12
Others	970.26	970.04	2.89%	-0.22
Total	33,407.97	33,564.32	100%	+156.35

Source: Bank of Tanzania, Table 3 of each weekly report. Change column is TICGL/TERI calculation. CIS = collective investment schemes.

Bonds vs Bills in the Stock

TZS trillions

Registered Clients Added per Fiscal Year

Number; FY-1 = last completed year, current FY to 9 Oct (Chart 9, labels relative)

1.1 What the holdings tell us

Two-thirds in two hands. Banks and pension funds hold TZS 21.55 tn, 64.2% of the stock. Insurers add 7.3%. Together the three institutional groups hold 71.5%.
Retail is meaningful but flat. Retail investors hold TZS 5.88 tn (17.5%) and the Bank has onboarded 3,103 new clients this fiscal year (total 34,605), already 31% of the 9,899 added in the last full year, after about three months.
Pension funds are not adding. Their holdings were unchanged at TZS 10.12 tn (-TZS 0.18 bn in the week), even as banks bought TZS 199 bn.
The week's growth was mainly bills held by banks. The stock rose TZS 156 bn; bills rose TZS 146 bn. Banks' rise of TZS 199 bn exceeds the net increase, as other holders sold or redeemed.

02 — BondsTreasury Bond Auctions: Strong Demand, Rising Yield

The 15-year Treasury bond No. 696 was auctioned on 30 September 2026. It attracted 312 bids, of which 208 succeeded. Bids totalled TZS 504.13 bn against TZS 207.27 bn offered, an oversubscription of TZS 296.86 bn (cover 2.43x), and TZS 196.51 bn was allotted. The weighted average yield to maturity was 10.7907%, up from 10.5515% at the previous auction of the same tenor.

Tendered

504.13bn

Offered 207.27bn

Allotted

196.51bn

94.8% of offer

WAY

10.79%

+24 bps vs 10.55%

Bid-to-cover

2.43x

Prev. 15-yr: 3.33x

Bond auction (latest per tenor)	2-yr No.712	5-yr No.700	10-yr No.711	15-yr No.696 (prev)	15-yr No.696 (30 Sep)	25-yr No.695
Coupon	9.50%	10.25%	11.25%	12.25%	12.25%	13.25%
Redemption date	30-Jul-28	30-Apr-31	23-Jul-36	19-Feb-41	19-Feb-41	05-Feb-51
Bids received / successful	93 / 45	100 / 75	165 / 87	396 / 235	312 / 208	2,681 / 1,671
Offered (TZS bn)	138.95	145.63	182.90	207.27	207.27	414.19
Tendered (TZS bn)	438.45	398.06	364.96	689.45	504.13	1,446.83
Allotted (TZS bn)	111.49	143.57	149.60	181.19	196.51	414.20
Bid-to-cover	3.16x	2.73x	2.00x	3.33x	2.43x	3.49x
Weighted avg yield (%)	8.40	9.53	10.69	10.55	10.79	11.48
WAP (per 100)	101.9580	102.6275	103.3267	112.4713	110.5120	114.4173
Lowest / highest bid	82.15 / 104.59	90.64 / 105.00	83.40 / 109.00	86.55 / 117.03	90.67 / 113.56	88.67 / 118.80

Source: Bank of Tanzania, Table 5 of the 2 October report. Auction dates are not stated for tenors other than the 15-year. Allotted = "successful bids" in the Bank's table.

Bid-to-Cover by Auction

Times; tendered ÷ offered

15-Year Bond: Offered, Tendered, Allotted

TZS billion, previous auction vs 30 September

Who Bid and Who Was Allotted

Share of subscriptions and allotments, percent, 15-year bond of 30 September (Table 4)

Investor category	Subscription %	Allotment %	Allotted (TZS bn)	Gap (pp)
Banks	51.05	48.17	94.66	-2.88
Individuals & companies	22.87	28.35	55.71	+5.48
Collective investment schemes	12.24	10.97	21.56	-1.27
Pension funds	8.75	7.18	14.1	-1.57
Insurance companies	5.08	5.33	10.5	+0.25

Source: Bank of Tanzania Table 4. Allotted amounts for pension funds and insurers are TICGL/TERI calculations (allotment share × TZS 196.51 bn).

2.1 Reading the bond results

Demand weakened, not collapsed. The 15-year cover fell from 3.33x to 2.43x and tendered volume fell 27% (TZS 689.45 bn → 504.13 bn), yet the Treasury allotted 94.8% of what it offered and paid 24 bps more.
Bank-led. Banks put in 51% of bids, more than double the next category. Individuals and companies were allotted 5.5 points more than their share of subscriptions; the report does not say why.
Pension funds took little. Only 8.75% of bids and 7.18% of allotments (about TZS 14 bn), despite holding 30% of the stock. Either their appetite is saturated or they prefer other assets.
The long end clears at a premium. The 25-year bond drew 2,681 bids and TZS 1.45 tn against TZS 414 bn offered, accepting the full offer at 11.48%, a sign that investors will lend long at around 11.5%.

03 — BillsTreasury Bill Auction No. 1208: Undersubscribed

The Treasury bills auction on 7 October 2026 offered the 35-, 91-, 182- and 364-day tenors. It drew 54 bids, of which 49 succeeded. Bids totalled TZS 309.50 bn against TZS 388.70 bn offered, an undersubscription of TZS 79.20 bn (cover 0.80x), and TZS 279.40 bn was allotted.

Cover

0.80x

309.50 ÷ 388.70

Allotted

279.40bn

71.9% of offer

Bids

49 successful

Bank share of bids

99.98%

Allotment 99.97%

T-bill auction, 7 Oct	35-day	91-day	182-day	364-day	Total
Maturity date	12-Nov-26	07-Jan-27	08-Apr-27	07-Oct-27	—
Bids received / successful	2 / 2	10 / 10	24 / 19	18 / 18	54 / 49
Offered (TZS bn)	49.9	69.9	99.9	169.0	388.7
Tendered (TZS bn)	10.0	42.0	130.0	127.5	309.5
Allotted (TZS bn)	10.0	42.0	99.9	127.5	279.4
Bid-to-cover	0.20x	0.60x	1.30x	0.75x	0.80x
Weighted avg yield (%)	3.36	3.49	5.63	6.28	—
WAP (per 100)	99.6790	99.1372	97.2696	94.1029	—

Source: Bank of Tanzania, Table 5 of the 9 October report. Total cover is TICGL/TERI calculation (309.5 ÷ 388.7). Only the 182-day tenor was oversubscribed (TZS 30.1 bn).

Offered vs Tendered vs Allotted

TZS billion by tenor

Bill Yields: August vs 7 October

Percent; August from BoT Table A4

3.1 Why the bill market is shallow

Banks only. Banks supplied 99.98% of subscriptions and received 99.97% of allotments (TZS 279.33 bn); individuals and companies got TZS 0.07 bn. Bills are effectively an interbank-liquidity instrument.
Short bills pay far less than the policy rate. The 35-day yield of 3.36% is almost 3 points below the 6.25% CBR; only the 364-day (6.28%) matches it. Bids concentrated in the 182- and 364-day tenors (TZS 257.5 bn of 309.5 bn), leaving the 35- and 91-day tenors at 0.20x and 0.60x cover.
The bill curve flattened. Versus the August monthly averages, the 35-day yield rose 125 bps (2.11% → 3.36%) while the 364-day fell 42 bps (6.70% → 6.28%), shrinking the 35-to-364-day spread from 4.59 to 2.92 percentage points (TICGL calc.).
Link to liquidity. The 7 October auction day coincided with a one-day collapse in interbank volume to TZS 1.0 bn and a 6.05% rate (Part 2), consistent with banks holding back cash for the auction or settling it.

Why an undersubscribed bill auction matters

Undersubscription means the Government could not raise the full TZS 388.70 bn planned. Given bills are only 10.7% of the stock, the funding impact is small, but a bid-to-cover of 0.80x compares with 1.7x for the August auctions (Bank's September review) and is a warning that the bank base for bills is narrow.

04 — Yield CurveThe Curve and What to Watch

Combining the latest auction result for each tenor gives a picture of the curve from 35 days to 25 years. It is steep at the short end, flatter in the middle and runs from 3.4% to 11.5%.

Tanzania Government Securities Yield Curve (Auction-Based)

Weighted average yield, percent. Bills: 7 Oct auction; bonds: latest auction per tenor. Dashed line = CBR 6.25% (TICGL assembled)

Tenor	Yield (%)	vs CBR 6.25 (bps)	Source
35-day	3.36	-289	Auction 7 Oct
91-day	3.49	-276	Auction 7 Oct
182-day	5.63	-62	Auction 7 Oct
364-day	6.28	+3	Auction 7 Oct
2-year	8.40	+215	Latest auction
5-year	9.53	+328	Latest auction
10-year	10.69	+444	Latest auction
15-year	10.79	+454	Auction 30 Sep
25-year	11.48	+523	Latest auction

Slope of the Curve

Percentage points (TICGL calc.)

Bond Yields: August vs Latest Auction

Percent; August from BoT Table A4

4.1 What the curve says

Upward sloping and credible. The 25-year yield is 308 bps above the 2-year and 523 bps above the CBR. Investors demand a clear term premium but do not price a sharp policy shock.
The 2-year to 364-day jump of 212 bps. There is a sizeable step between the bill and bond segments of the curve.
Rates are close to August for most tenors. The 2-year (8.40%), 5-year (9.53%) and 25-year (11.48%) match August levels; the 10-year is 18 bps lower (10.87% → 10.69%) and the 15-year 24 bps higher (10.55% → 10.79%).

4.2 Outlook and risks

14 October 25-year auction. The last 25-year cleared the full TZS 414 bn at 11.48% with 3.49x cover. A cover below about 3x or a yield above 11.8% would be a warning that long-end demand is cooling alongside the 15-year softening. This is a TICGL/TERI threshold for monitoring, not a forecast.
Concentration. Banks are the marginal buyers of both bills (99.98%) and bonds (51%); a shift in bank liquidity, as shown in Part 2, hits the Treasury directly.
Pension-fund saturation. If pension funds, 30% of the stock, stop adding, new supply must be absorbed by banks and retail or by higher yields.
Crowding-out. With the Government borrowing heavily at 10–11.5% in the long end, private firms seeking local-currency bonds face a high benchmark. Banks hold TZS 11.43 tn of government paper while private credit grows 33%.

For investors and pension managers

Treat 11.5% as the 25-year benchmark and 10.8% as the 15-year benchmark for discounting.
Use auction cover and the allotted-to-offered ratio as demand signals, not only yield.
Bills below the CBR suit liquidity management, not return; ladder into 182- and 364-day bills.

For corporates and project sponsors

Price local-currency debt off the government curve plus a credit spread of 2–4 points (illustratively about 13.5–15.5% for long tenors).
Consider infrastructure bonds or pension-fund co-investment where pension funds are saturated.
Time issuance away from heavy government auction weeks.

"The Treasury can still borrow long at about 11 percent, but it is borrowing from the same few hands. The real depth test is whether pension funds, insurers and retail investors take more of the next auctions."

— TICGL / Tanzania Economic Research Institute (TERI)

05 — What TICGL DoesFrom Market Data to Financing Strategy

The government yield curve is the benchmark for every local-currency financing decision. TICGL (Tanzania Investment and Consultant Group Ltd), with its research arm TERI, combines original economic research with practical advisory outputs across Tanzania and East Africa. Three technical service lines use the analysis in this report directly.

Feasibility Studies

Pre-feasibility and full feasibility studies for PPP and private projects.
Discount-rate and cost-of-capital build-ups anchored on the government curve.
Financing-structure options: bank debt, infrastructure bonds, pension-fund and PPP funding.
Sensitivity to yields, inflation and exchange rates, with DSCR and affordability tests.

Market Entry Advisory

Sector screening including local-currency financing availability and cost.
Treasury and working-capital planning for new entrants.
Entry-mode choice, incentives and capital-market access routes.
Partner, lender and investor identification.

Market Research

Weekly, monthly and quarterly capital-market monitoring from official sources.
Investor-base, pension and capital-market depth studies.
Primary surveys and stakeholder interviews with issuers, banks and fund managers.
Policy briefs, training materials and SEO-ready publications.

Why this matters to clients

A project discount rate set off the CBR (6.25%) understates the cost of long-term local money by about 4.5 to 5 points. Refreshing the curve inputs in a feasibility model, PPP proposal or bond plan takes little time and avoids mispriced risk.

Talk to TICGL/TERI

Request a feasibility, market-entry or market-research scoping call, or a fuller briefing on this series.

What We Do → TICGL Markets → TERI Research → ✉️ economist@ticgl.com

06 — SourcesMethod & Source Note

Basis

Source: Bank of Tanzania, Domestic Financial Markets Weekly Reports for 28 September–2 October 2026 and 5–9 October 2026 (Section 3: Tables 3–5, Chart 9), plus the Monthly Economic Review, September 2026 (Table A4 yields; Section 2.4 auction cover). Weekly changes in holdings, per-category allotments for pension funds and insurers, total T-bill cover, curve spreads versus the CBR and the August-to-October yield comparisons are TICGL/TERI computations. "Latest auction" tenors in the bond table carry no dates in the weekly report. The monitoring thresholds for the 14 October auction are TICGL/TERI judgements, not forecasts. This is Part 3 of a three-part series; Part 1 covers the foreign exchange market and Part 2 the money market.

07 — Quick AnswersFrequently Asked Questions

How much government debt is outstanding in the securities market?

TZS 33.56 trillion at face value on 9 October 2026: bonds TZS 29.99 trillion (89.35%) and bills TZS 3.57 trillion (10.65%).

Who holds Tanzania's government securities?

Banks 34.06%, pension funds 30.14%, retail investors 17.53%, CIS and other official entities 8.09%, insurers 7.29% and others 2.89%.

What was the latest Treasury bond auction result?

The 15-year bond of 30 September drew TZS 504.13 billion against TZS 207.27 billion offered, allotted TZS 196.51 billion at a weighted average yield of 10.79%, up from 10.55%.

Was the 7 October Treasury bill auction successful?

It was undersubscribed: TZS 309.50 billion tendered against TZS 388.70 billion offered (0.80x), TZS 279.40 billion allotted, banks 99.98% of bids. Yields were 3.36%, 3.49%, 5.63% and 6.28% for 35-, 91-, 182- and 364-day bills.

What happens next?

A 25-year Treasury bond will be offered on Wednesday 14 October 2026. The previous 25-year auction yielded 11.48% at 3.49x cover.

Muhtasari

Muhtasari kwa Kiswahili

Soko la Dhamana za Serikali la Tanzania. Kwa mujibu wa ripoti mbili za wiki za Benki Kuu ya Tanzania (28 Sep – 9 Okt 2026), dhamana za serikali zilizopo sokoni zilifikia TZS trilioni 33.56 tarehe 9 Oktoba, kutoka trilioni 33.41 wiki iliyotangulia. Hati fungani ni TZS trilioni 29.99 (asilimia 89.35) na hati za muda mfupi (T-bills) ni trilioni 3.57 (asilimia 10.65).

Wamiliki: Benki asilimia 34.06, mifuko ya pensheni asilimia 30.14, wawekezaji wa rejareja asilimia 17.53, bima asilimia 7.29. Mifuko ya pensheni haikuongeza dhamana wiki hii (TZS trilioni 10.12), wakati benki ziliongeza takriban TZS bilioni 199.

Mnada wa hati fungani ya miaka 15 (30 Sep): Zabuni zilikuwa TZS bilioni 504.13 dhidi ya bilioni 207.27 zilizotolewa (mara 2.43). Mapato ya wastani (yield) yalipanda hadi asilimia 10.79 kutoka asilimia 10.55. Benki zilitoa asilimia 51 ya zabuni, mifuko ya pensheni asilimia 8.75 tu.

Mnada wa T-bills (7 Okt): Zabuni zilikuwa TZS bilioni 309.50 dhidi ya bilioni 388.70 zilizotolewa (mara 0.80), yaani haukujazwa. Benki zilitoa asilimia 99.98 ya zabuni. Yield: siku 35 asilimia 3.36, siku 91 asilimia 3.49, siku 182 asilimia 5.63, siku 364 asilimia 6.28.

Mkunjo wa yield: Kutoka asilimia 3.4 (siku 35) hadi asilimia 11.48 (miaka 25). Yield ya siku 364 ni sawa na CBR ya asilimia 6.25. Mnada ujao ni wa hati fungani ya miaka 25 tarehe 14 Oktoba; mnada uliopita ulikuwa asilimia 11.48 kwa mara 3.49.

Ushauri: Wawekezaji watumie asilimia 11.5 kama kigezo cha miaka 25 na asilimia 10.8 kwa miaka 15. Miradi isipime gharama ya mtaji kwa CBR ya asilimia 6.25 pekee. TICGL/TERI hutoa upembuzi yakinifu (feasibility), ushauri wa kuingia sokoni na utafiti wa soko.

Hitimisho: Mahitaji ya dhamana ndefu ni mazuri, lakini yanatoka kwa wanunuzi wachache. Kina cha soko kitapimwa na kama mifuko ya pensheni, bima na wawekezaji wa rejareja watachukua sehemu kubwa ya minada ijayo.

Dhamana zilizopo: TZS trilioni 33.56 (hati fungani 29.99, T-bills 3.57)
Yield ya miaka 15: 10.79% (+24 bps) · miaka 25: 11.48%
Mnada wa T-bills: mara 0.80 (haukujazwa)
Benki: 99.98% ya zabuni za T-bills

Chanzo: Benki Kuu ya Tanzania, Domestic Financial Markets Weekly Reports (28 Sep – 9 Okt 2026). Kwa maelezo zaidi: economist@ticgl.com.

Disclaimer & scope

Prepared by TERI for research and strategic-information purposes only. It is not investment, legal, tax or financial advice and does not state the position of the Bank of Tanzania. Daily rates and volumes are read from the published chart labels. WAR means weighted average rate; bps means basis points (1 bp = 0.01 percentage point). The reverse repo series in Chart 8 does not carry date labels in the text of the reports, so only the three latest weekly amounts the Bank states in words are used for conclusions; the longer series is shown for context and is approximate.

00 — OverviewExecutive Summary

The Bank of Tanzania says the weekly rate is "consistent with the Bank's policy stance". The data agree, and add a pattern worth knowing: liquidity is comfortable from Monday to Thursday and tight on Fridays.

Weekly avg WAR

6.47%

Prev. week 6.52%

Policy corridor

4.75–7.75%

CBR 6.25% at midpoint

Friday premium

+27–39 bps

vs Mon–Thu average (TICGL calc.)

Wed 7 Oct volume

TZS 1.0bn

WAR dipped to 6.05%

Central finding

Banks are using the Bank's 7-day reverse repo less (TZS 341.48bn → 272.98bn → 252.43bn, down 26% in two weeks) and the weekly average rate has eased from 6.52% to 6.47%, which points to slightly easier liquidity. Yet the Friday close is consistently 27 to 39 bps higher than earlier days, so the market is balanced on average but short at the weekend. That shape, not the average, is what banks and borrowers need to plan around.

Rate: weekly close 6.79% (25 Sep) → 6.72% (2 Oct) → 6.75% (9 Oct); weekly average 6.52% → 6.47%, always inside the 4.75–7.75% corridor.
Volume: TZS 867.55bn → 927.45bn → 748.35bn. Friday alone carries 33–39% of weekly volume (TICGL calc.).
Central bank support: injections at the 6.25% CBR equal about 34% of the week's 7-day interbank volume, down from 39% three weeks ago (TICGL calc.).
Macro backdrop: M3 grew 25.5% and private credit 33.0% to August, so structural liquidity remains ample even as the Bank tightens at the margin.

01 — Interbank Cash MarketThe 7-Day IBCM: Rates and Volumes

The 7-day Interbank Cash Market (IBCM) weighted average rate closed the week to 9 October at 6.75%, up from 6.72% and 6.79% in the two preceding weeks. Total 7-day trading volume was TZS 748.35 billion, down from TZS 927.45 billion and TZS 867.55 billion.

Daily 7-Day WAR vs the Central Bank Rate

Percent, 21 Sep to 9 Oct 2026 (Charts 6–7). Dashed line = CBR 6.25%

Daily 7-Day IBCM Volume

TZS billion

7-day IBCM	Mon	Tue	Wed	Thu	Fri	Week
Wk 21–25 Sep: WAR (%)	6.52	6.55	6.50	6.40	6.79	n/a
Volume (TZS bn)	146.2	52.5	135.7	246.6	286.6	867.55
Wk 28 Sep–2 Oct: WAR (%)	6.50	6.47	6.45	6.37	6.72	6.52
Volume (TZS bn)	159.6	76.0	160.2	221.1	310.6	927.45
Wk 5–9 Oct: WAR (%)	6.49	6.55	6.05	6.35	6.75	6.47
Volume (TZS bn)	153.1	60.5	1.0	242.5	291.3	748.35

Source: Bank of Tanzania, Charts 6–7 of the weekly reports. Weekly average WAR is as stated by the Bank for the last two weeks; the 21–25 Sep average is not stated. Daily volumes sum to the Bank's stated weekly totals.

1.1 The Friday effect

Friday WAR vs Monday–Thursday Average

Percent (TICGL calc.)

Consistent premium. Friday WAR was 30 bps above the Monday–Thursday average in the week to 25 Sep, 27 bps in the week to 2 Oct, and 39 bps in the week to 9 Oct.
Volume follows rate. Friday handled 33.0%, 33.5% and 38.9% of weekly volume. Borrowing is concentrated when banks square positions ahead of the weekend, consistent with the Bank's note that a few banks seek to cover temporary shortfalls.
The 7 October outlier. Volume collapsed to TZS 1.0 billion on Wednesday and the rate fell to 6.05%, the lowest of the three weeks. A rate set on one billion shillings is not a meaningful price; it coincided with a Treasury bill auction that day (Part 3 of this series).

02 — Reverse RepoThe Bank's Liquidity Window at the CBR

During the week to 9 October the Bank conducted 7-day reverse repo main operations, injecting TZS 252.43 billion at the 6.25% CBR to steer the operating target towards the policy rate. That compares with TZS 272.98 billion the week before and TZS 341.48 billion the week before that.

Wk to 25 Sep

341.48bn

39% of IBCM volume

Wk to 2 Oct

272.98bn

-20.1% · 29% of volume

Wk to 9 Oct

252.43bn

-7.5% · 34% of volume

Two-week change

-26.1%

TICGL calc.

Weekly Reverse Repo Injections

TZS billion, as stated in the reports

Injection as Share of 7-Day IBCM Volume

Percent (TICGL calc.)

Longer View: Latest 14 Reverse Repo Operations (Approximate)

TZS billion, oldest to latest, read from Chart 8; auction dates are not labelled in the text

2.1 What the pattern means

Demand for central-bank liquidity is easing. Chart 8 shows operations above TZS 650 billion in earlier weeks, with a peak of about TZS 1,061 billion. Latest operations are a quarter of that. The Bank's September review had flagged higher reverse repo use from a few banks facing temporary shortfalls; that pressure appears to be fading.
Full-allotment at the CBR caps the rate. Because the Bank provides liquidity at 6.25%, the interbank rate should not trade far above it unless banks run out of eligible collateral or prefer the market. The 6.72–6.79% Friday closes are above the CBR yet well inside the 7.75% Lombard rate, which is the upper limit of the corridor.
Policy signal. The Bank is steering the operating target to the CBR, not widening the spread; the 22–27 bps gap between weekly average and policy rate is small and suggests the July increase to 6.25% has transmitted to the interbank market.

03 — Rate LadderWhere the Interbank Rate Sits in the Structure of Rates

The policy corridor and the money-market rate matter because they anchor everything else. Placing the weekly interbank rate among the Bank's other rates shows how the tightening is passing through.

The Interest Rate Ladder

Percent. Mixed dates: weekly data (Oct 2026), T-bill auction of 7 Oct, and Bank monthly data for August 2026

Rate	Level (%)	Date / source
Savings deposit rate	2.77	Aug-26, BoT monthly review Table A4
35-day T-bill yield	3.36	Auction 7 Oct, weekly report
91-day T-bill yield	3.49	Auction 7 Oct
182-day T-bill yield	5.63	Auction 7 Oct
Central Bank Rate (CBR) = reverse repo rate	6.25	Raised July 2026
364-day T-bill yield	6.28	Auction 7 Oct
7-day IBCM weekly average	6.47	Week to 9 Oct
7-day IBCM close	6.75	9 Oct
Lombard rate (corridor ceiling)	7.75	Aug-26, Table A4
Discount rate	8.75	Aug-26, Table A4
Overall time deposit rate	8.78	Aug-26, Table A4
Overall lending rate	15.05	Aug-26, Table A4

Source: Bank of Tanzania weekly reports (Table 5 and Charts 6–7) and Monthly Economic Review, September 2026 (Table A4). Lombard rate sits at the upper corridor band of 7.75%.

3.1 Reading the ladder

Bills yield less than the policy rate at short tenors. The 35- and 91-day yields (3.4–3.5%) sit nearly 3 points below the CBR, while the 364-day (6.28%) matches it. Short bills are in high demand from banks with spare liquidity, which is consistent with comfortable liquidity at the short end even as the interbank market shows Friday tightness.
The transmission gap is wide. The distance from the 6.47% interbank average to the 15.05% overall lending rate is about 8.6 percentage points. A 25 bps move in the CBR changes funding costs at the margin but does not change the lending rate quickly.
Deposits are well above bills. Overall time deposits at 8.78% pay more than Treasury bills up to 182 days, so banks pay depositors more than short government paper earns, a gap worth including in any bank-margin analysis.

04 — OutlookLiquidity Conditions: What to Expect

Weekly liquidity data are a small window on a large system. The Bank's September review shows annual growth of 25.5% in extended broad money (M3), 28.1% in M2, 27.4% in reserve money and 33.0% in private-sector credit. Against that backdrop, the interbank market's modest tightness looks like a distribution issue (who has the cash and when) rather than a shortage.

Money and Credit Growth Behind the Weekly Data

Annual growth, percent (BoT Monthly Review, Table 2.2.1)

Signal	Reading	Direction for liquidity
Weekly average WAR vs CBR	+22 bps (was +27 bps)	Slightly easier
Reverse repo injections	TZS 252bn, down 26% in two weeks	Easier
7-day volume	TZS 748bn, down 19%	Less turnover, ambiguous
Friday premium	+39 bps (was +27 bps)	Tighter at week-end
Bank dominance of T-bill auction (7 Oct)	Banks 99.98% of subscriptions	Banks absorbing government paper
Net foreign assets of the banking system (Aug)	TZS 13,575bn, falling	Tighter FX-linked liquidity

4.1 What could change the picture

The 14 October 25-year bond auction. Long-bond settlement moves cash from banks to the Government, usually lifting short rates and reverse repo demand for a few days afterwards. Watch Friday 16 October.
Government spending and tax dates. Late-month tax payments drain liquidity; spending injects it. The weekly pattern of Friday spikes may become sharper at month-end.
Foreign exchange operations. Dollar sales by the Bank to smooth the rate (USD 45.4 million net in August) drain shilling liquidity; Part 1 of this series shows interbank FX activity is currently thin, limiting that channel.
Policy path. The CBR is reviewed quarterly. With inflation at 4.3% and core rising, further tightening cannot be ruled out, but the easing of reverse repo usage suggests no urgency to add stress.

For bank treasurers and corporates

Plan funding Monday to Thursday; avoid relying on Friday for large overnight and 7-day needs.
Expect a 25–40 bps Friday premium and quote it in internal transfer pricing.
Do not read a single day's rate (such as 6.05% on 7 Oct) as a trend; check the volume.

For investors and project sponsors

Use 6.25% (CBR) as the policy anchor and 6.5–6.8% as the short-term interbank band in financial models.
Remember that bank lending rates (about 15%) are far above interbank rates, so project finance cost depends on credit spreads, not the CBR alone.
Short bills at 3.4–3.5% suggest liquidity is available to banks; seek competitive local-currency bids for working capital lines.

"The market is not short of money; it is short of money on Fridays. Policy is working at the margin, and the real test is whether bank lending rates follow the policy rate, not whether the interbank rate does."

— TICGL / Tanzania Economic Research Institute (TERI)

05 — What TICGL DoesFrom Liquidity Data to Financing Decisions

Funding cost and liquidity assumptions sit inside every feasibility study, PPP proposal and market-entry plan. TICGL (Tanzania Investment and Consultant Group Ltd), with its research arm TERI, combines original economic research with practical advisory outputs across Tanzania and East Africa. Three technical service lines use the analysis in this report directly.

Feasibility Studies

Pre-feasibility and full feasibility studies for PPP and private projects.
Financial models with interest-rate paths, margin over CBR and debt-service coverage tests.
Sensitivity ranges for local-currency borrowing costs and working-capital lines.
Financing structure review: bank debt, bonds, pension-fund and PPP funding.

Market Entry Advisory

Sector and location screening, including financing availability and cost.
Working-capital and treasury planning for new entrants in Tanzania.
Entry-mode choice, incentives and local-currency funding options.
Partner, lender and supplier identification.

Market Research

Weekly, monthly and quarterly financial-market monitoring from official sources.
Sector outlooks with interest-rate and liquidity scenarios.
Primary surveys and stakeholder interviews with banks, corporates and SMEs.
Policy briefs, training materials and SEO-ready publications.

Why this matters to clients

A project priced at the CBR is mispriced: the real cost of local-currency credit is the 15% lending rate. A refreshed funding-cost layer in a feasibility model or market-entry case takes little time and removes avoidable mispricing.

Talk to TICGL/TERI

Request a feasibility, market-entry or market-research scoping call, or a fuller briefing on this series.

What We Do → TICGL Markets → TERI Research → ✉️ economist@ticgl.com

06 — SourcesMethod & Source Note

Basis

Source: Bank of Tanzania, Domestic Financial Markets Weekly Reports for 28 September–2 October 2026 and 5–9 October 2026 (Section 2: Charts 6–8; Section 3: auction yields of 7 October), plus the Monthly Economic Review, September 2026 (Tables 2.2.1, A3, A4). Friday premium (Friday WAR less the Monday–Thursday simple average), injection-to-volume ratios and two-week changes are TICGL/TERI computations from chart data labels. The longer reverse repo series is approximate: only the three most recent weekly amounts are stated in words by the Bank. Corridor: 4.75–7.75%, CBR 6.25%. This is Part 2 of a three-part series; Part 1 covers the foreign exchange market, Part 3 covers government securities.

07 — Quick AnswersFrequently Asked Questions

What is Tanzania's interbank cash market rate in October 2026?

The 7-day weighted average rate closed at 6.75% on 9 October, with a weekly average of 6.47%, within the 4.75–7.75% corridor and 22 bps above the 6.25% Central Bank Rate.

How much liquidity is the Bank of Tanzania injecting?

TZS 252.43 billion through 7-day reverse repo in the week to 9 October, down from TZS 272.98 billion and TZS 341.48 billion.

Why does the interbank rate spike on Fridays?

Friday WAR was 27–39 bps above the Monday–Thursday average in each of the last three weeks, with a third or more of weekly volume, consistent with banks covering weekend positions.

Is liquidity tight?

Balanced rather than tight: rates are slightly above the CBR and injections are shrinking, while broad money growth of 25.5% and private credit growth of 33.0% show ample liquidity overall.

What happens to liquidity around Treasury auctions?

Auction settlements move cash from banks to the Government. On 7 October interbank volume fell to TZS 1.0 billion and the rate to 6.05% on a T-bill auction day in which banks supplied 99.98% of subscriptions.

Muhtasari

Muhtasari kwa Kiswahili

Soko la Fedha la Tanzania na Hali ya Ukwasi. Kwa mujibu wa ripoti mbili za wiki za Benki Kuu ya Tanzania (28 Sep – 9 Okt 2026), kiwango cha wastani cha soko la fedha kati ya benki (IBCM) cha siku 7 kilifunga wiki kwa asilimia 6.75, juu kidogo ya asilimia 6.72 wiki iliyotangulia. Wastani wa wiki ulikuwa asilimia 6.47, ndani ya ukanda wa asilimia 4.75 hadi 7.75 na pointi 22 juu ya Kiwango cha Benki Kuu (CBR) cha asilimia 6.25.

Kiasi cha biashara: Miamala ya siku 7 ilishuka hadi TZS bilioni 748.35 kutoka bilioni 927.45 (kushuka kwa asilimia 19.3).

Reverse repo: Benki Kuu iliingiza TZS bilioni 252.43 sokoni kwa CBR ya asilimia 6.25, ikilinganishwa na bilioni 272.98 na bilioni 341.48 wiki mbili zilizopita. Hii inaonyesha mahitaji ya ukwasi kutoka kwa Benki Kuu yanapungua.

Athari ya Ijumaa: Kila Ijumaa kiwango huwa juu ya wastani wa Jumatatu hadi Alhamisi kwa pointi 27 hadi 39, na Ijumaa hubeba theluthi moja au zaidi ya biashara ya wiki. Hii inaonyesha benki hubana nafasi zao kabla ya wikendi.

Tahadhari: Tarehe 7 Oktoba biashara ilishuka hadi TZS bilioni 1.0 na kiwango kuwa asilimia 6.05, siku ya mnada wa hati fungani za muda mfupi (T-bills). Kiwango cha siku moja kama hicho si ishara ya mwelekeo.

Ushauri: Wasimamizi wa fedha wapange mahitaji ya fedha kuanzia Jumatatu hadi Alhamisi. Wawekezaji watumie CBR ya asilimia 6.25 kama kiashiria, lakini wakumbuke riba za mikopo ya benki ni takriban asilimia 15. TICGL/TERI hutoa upembuzi yakinifu (feasibility), ushauri wa kuingia sokoni na utafiti wa soko.

Hitimisho: Soko lina ukwasi wa kutosha kwa jumla, lakini hubana siku za Ijumaa. Mnada wa hati fungani wa miaka 25 wa tarehe 14 Oktoba utaathiri ukwasi wa wiki ijayo.

IBCM siku 7: 6.75% (9 Okt) · wastani wa wiki 6.47% · CBR 6.25%
Kiasi cha wiki: TZS bilioni 748.35 (-19.3%)
Reverse repo: TZS bilioni 252.43 (-26% katika wiki mbili)
Athari ya Ijumaa: +27 hadi +39 bps

Chanzo: Benki Kuu ya Tanzania, Domestic Financial Markets Weekly Reports (28 Sep – 9 Okt 2026). Kwa maelezo zaidi: economist@ticgl.com.

Disclaimer & scope

Prepared by TERI for research and strategic-information purposes only. It is not investment, legal, tax or financial advice and does not state the position of the Bank of Tanzania. Foreign exchange turnover is quoted in US dollars, as published. In the retail tables "purchases" are read as banks buying foreign currency from customers (supply) and "sales" as banks selling it to customers (demand); this is the standard interpretation but the weekly report does not define the terms. Note: a negative "change" in the Bank's tables means the foreign currency became cheaper in shillings, i.e. the shilling strengthened.

00 — OverviewExecutive Summary

The Bank of Tanzania describes the shilling as stable in both weeks, appreciating slightly. The numbers support that, with three qualifications that matter for anyone pricing imports, exports or foreign-currency debt.

Close, 9 Oct

2,631.36

TZS per USD · 2 Oct: 2,641.42

vs euro, two weeks

-2.1%

TZS 3,008.14 → 2,944.49

IFEM, 3 weeks

-50%

$44.8M → $29.9M → $22.3M

Net retail demand, wk to 9 Oct

$63.9M

Sales exceed purchases

Central finding

The shilling is gaining ground even as the interbank market thins and retail customers were net buyers of dollars in the latest week (USD 298.87 million sold against USD 234.93 million bought). That combination points to supply arriving from channels the weekly reports do not show, or to firming driven by sentiment and thin trading rather than depth. Either way the move is gentle, but it is the kind of rate a few large orders could reverse.

Rate: TZS 2,645.45 (25 Sep) → 2,641.42 (2 Oct) → 2,631.36 (9 Oct). Versus the Bank's monthly review, the rate is 0.3% firmer than end-August (2,639.9) but still 7.5% weaker than end-December 2025 (2,447.5), TICGL calc.
Euro effect: the euro lost about 1.6% against the dollar in the same two weeks (implied from cross rates), so shilling gains against Europe were larger than against the US.
Depth: interbank turnover is only 4% of weekly retail turnover; the headline rate is set in a small market.
Retail: trade alone was USD 174.70 million (33% of the week), with oil and energy and mining next.

01 — Exchange RatesOfficial Indicative Mean Rates

The shilling closed at TZS 2,641.42 per USD on 2 October, down 0.15% on the week, and at TZS 2,631.36 on 9 October, down a further 0.38%. In both weeks the Bank describes the shilling as stable, appreciating slightly.

The Shilling's Path: Month-Ends to Weekly Closes

TZS per USD. Lower = stronger shilling. Month-end rates Aug-25 to Aug-26 from the Bank's Sept review (Table A10), then weekly closes

TZS per unit	25-Sep-26	2-Oct-26	9-Oct-26	Wk 1 %	Wk 2 %	2-wk %*
US dollar	2,645.45	2,641.42	2,631.36	-0.15	-0.38	-0.53
Euro	3,008.14	2,981.63	2,944.49	-0.88	-1.25	-2.12
British pound	3,498.87	3,493.01	3,476.29	-0.17	-0.48	-0.65
Chinese yuan	394.06	393.97	392.59	-0.02	-0.35	-0.37
Indian rupee	27.57	27.42	27.19	-0.53	-0.86	-1.38
Japanese yen	16.66	16.72	16.63	+0.31	-0.49	-0.18
Kenyan shilling	20.42	20.35	20.25	-0.32	-0.52	-0.84
Rwandan franc	1.79	1.79	1.78	-0.19	-0.40	-0.59
Ugandan shilling	0.67	0.66	0.64	-1.28	-3.18	-4.4

Source: Bank of Tanzania, Table 1 of each weekly report. *Two-week change compounds the two published weekly changes (TICGL calc.). Rwandan franc and Ugandan shilling are quoted to two decimals, so small moves look large.

Weekly Change vs the Shilling

Percent; negative = foreign currency cheaper in TZS

Implied Euro per Dollar

USD per EUR, from Bank cross rates (TICGL calc.)

1.1 What the cross rates reveal

Implied pair (TICGL calc.)	25-Sep	2-Oct	9-Oct	Reading
USD per EUR	1.137	1.129	1.119	Euro weaker by ~1.6%
USD per GBP	1.323	1.322	1.321	Sterling steady
CNY per USD	6.713	6.705	6.703	Yuan steady
JPY per USD	158.8	158.0	158.2	Yen steady
KES per USD	129.6	129.8	129.9	Kenya shilling steady

A dollar story against the euro, a shilling story against the rest. Sterling, yuan, yen and the Kenyan shilling hardly moved against the dollar, yet all became cheaper in TZS (by 0.2% to 0.8%), which is simply the shilling's 0.5% gain against the dollar passing through. Only the euro moved independently.
Regional competitiveness: the shilling gained 0.84% on the Kenyan shilling and about 4.4% on the Ugandan shilling (rounding-affected). A firmer TZS makes Tanzanian exports pricier for EAC buyers.

02 — Interbank MarketIFEM: Quiet and Getting Quieter

Interbank Foreign Exchange Market (IFEM) transactions were USD 22.30 million in the week to 9 October, down from USD 29.90 million and USD 44.80 million in the two preceding weeks. That is a 25.4% fall week on week and a 50.2% fall in two weeks.

Week to 25 Sep

$44.8M

Peak day $16.6M

Week to 2 Oct

$29.9M

-33.3% w/w

Week to 9 Oct

$22.3M

-25.4% w/w

Oct month-to-date

$31.2M

Sep full month: $151.65M

Daily IFEM Turnover, Three Weeks

USD million (Charts 1–2 of the weekly reports)

Monthly IFEM Turnover, January 2024 to October 2026

USD million; October 2026 is month-to-date to 9 October (Chart 3)

Day	Wk to 25 Sep	Wk to 2 Oct	Wk to 9 Oct
Monday	0.50	12.50	1.10
Tuesday	3.90	3.50	3.80
Wednesday	9.50	5.00	4.00
Thursday	14.30	2.30	8.30
Friday	16.60	6.60	5.10
Week total (USD m)	44.80	29.90	22.30

Source: Bank of Tanzania, Chart 1–3 data labels in the weekly reports. Weekly totals tie to the totals the Bank states.

2.1 How to read thin volumes

Low against the 2026 run-rate. The 2026 monthly average to September is about USD 152 million (about USD 35 million a week, TICGL calc.). The last two weeks are 15% and 36% below that pace.
Trend context. IFEM turnover peaked at USD 227.1 million in July 2026 and has fallen to USD 190.3 million (August) and USD 151.65 million (September).
Price discovery risk. When a few USD million a day sets the reference rate, a single large corporate or public-sector order can shift it. The firming of the last two weeks happened on falling volumes, not rising ones.
Interbank vs retail. IFEM was only 4.2% of retail turnover this week (5.6% last week, 8.3% the week before). Most currency changes hands between banks and customers, not between banks.

03 — Retail FXCommercial Banks' Retail Foreign Exchange

Retail FX transactions were USD 533.81 million in the week to 9 October, marginally below USD 536.19 million the week before and USD 542.93 million before that. Trade (USD 174.70 million), oil and energy (USD 74.18 million) and mining (USD 59.31 million) made up USD 308.19 million, 58% of the total. Over the past month daily retail turnover averaged USD 125.52 million (USD 129.87 million a week earlier).

Weekly Purchases vs Sales by Banks

USD million (Table 2)

Monthly Retail FX Turnover

USD million, Jan-25 to Oct-26 (read from Chart 4; Oct to 9th)

Turnover by Sector, Three Weeks

USD million, purchases + sales (Table 2)

Sector (USD m)	Wk 25 Sep	Wk 2 Oct	Wk 9 Oct	9 Oct purchases	9 Oct sales
Trade	130.37	130.98	174.70	44.30	130.40
Oil & Energy	74.14	78.32	74.18	7.81	66.37
Mining	62.67	70.69	59.31	50.82	8.49
Agriculture	57.96	39.12	46.62	38.64	7.98
Individual retail customers	47.50	38.57	41.07	20.31	20.76
Manufacturing	53.31	46.87	35.69	4.79	30.90
Transport & Communication	30.97	39.49	34.94	24.08	10.87
Tourism	29.44	28.53	24.12	20.90	3.22
Constructions (machines & equipment)	31.10	24.62	21.14	10.41	10.73
Social services	12.81	25.50	10.20	6.08	4.12
NGOs	9.66	10.87	7.13	6.79	0.34
Breweries / Beverages	3.00	2.62	4.70	0.00	4.70
Total	542.93	536.19	533.81	234.93	298.87

Source: Bank of Tanzania, Table 2 of the weekly reports. Table sorted by latest week's turnover; some rows differ by 0.01 from the Bank's rounded totals.

3.1 Who supplies and who demands dollars

Net Demand for Foreign Currency by Sector

Banks' sales to customers minus purchases from customers, USD million. Positive = net demand, negative = net supply (TICGL calc.)

Net demand: trade (+USD 86.10 million), oil and energy (+58.56) and manufacturing (+26.11) are the main buyers, consistent with import financing for goods, fuel and inputs.
Net supply: mining (-42.33), agriculture (-30.66), tourism (-17.68), transport and communication (-13.21) and NGOs (-6.45) bring foreign currency in.
The balance flipped. Net demand was +USD 5.29 million in the week to 25 Sep, turned to net supply of -36.50 million the week to 2 Oct, and swung to net demand of +63.95 million in the latest week. Trade net demand has nearly quadrupled in three weeks (22.25 → 86.10).

A puzzle worth flagging

In the latest week customers bought USD 63.95 million more than they sold, yet the shilling gained 0.38%. Retail flows alone would normally push the rate the other way. The weekly report does not explain it; possible reasons (interbank or official supply, offshore flows, or the timing of conversions) cannot be tested with the published data. TICGL/TERI treats it as a signal to watch rather than a conclusion.

04 — Drivers & OutlookWhat Is Behind the Move, and What to Watch

The data are consistent with a seasonal and policy-supported firming, but the evidence is thin. TICGL/TERI sets out the likely drivers, the risks and what each business group should do.

Possible driver	Direction for TZS	What the weekly data show
Tight monetary stance (CBR 6.25%; weekly 7-day WAR 6.47–6.52%)	Firmer	Interbank rate 22–27 bps above the CBR, within the 4.75–7.75% corridor
Export and gold inflows (the Bank's September review cites gold and traditional crops)	Firmer	Mining and agriculture are net suppliers of dollars each week
Import and fuel demand	Weaker	Trade, oil and manufacturing net demand USD 170.8 million in latest week (TICGL calc.)
Global dollar strength vs euro	Neutral for USD, firmer vs EUR	Euro down ~1.6% vs USD; TZS up 2.1% vs EUR
Thin interbank volumes	Volatility risk	IFEM $22.3M, half of three weeks ago

Net Demand in the Latest Week, Main Buyers and Sellers

USD million, week to 9 October 2026 (TICGL calc.)

4.1 Why this matters beyond the exchange rate

Inflation. The Bank's September review shows core inflation rising to 4.1% with imported fuel and transport costs the main upside risk. A firmer shilling helps, but it is too small (0.5%) to offset an oil shock.
Debt. About 18% of external debt is in euro and 65% in dollars. A 2.1% fall in euro/TZS cuts the shilling value of euro debt by about TZS 0.4 trillion and a 0.5% fall in dollar/TZS about TZS 0.3 trillion (based on end-August composition, TICGL calc.). Gains of this size reverse quickly if the rate turns.
Exporters. Tourism, agriculture and mining earn dollars and are net suppliers; a firmer shilling squeezes their local-currency margins, so they are the group most hurt by appreciation.

Importers and manufacturers

Use the firmer rate to place forward cover or pre-pay inputs at TZS 2,631 rather than wait.
Stagger large orders across days to avoid adding to thin interbank volumes.
Re-price landed-cost models for euro-invoiced goods: they are 2% cheaper than two weeks ago.

Exporters, tourism and mining

Review forward-sale options before appreciation erodes margins.
Check contract currency clauses for Kenya and Uganda buyers, where the shilling gained 0.8% and about 4%.
Hold USD revenue in line with known TZS obligations rather than converting all at once.

What to watch next

(1) Whether interbank turnover recovers above about USD 35 million a week, which would confirm the firming is supported by genuine flows. (2) Whether retail net demand stays above USD 60 million. (3) The Bank of Tanzania's weekly 7-day WAR relative to the 6.25% CBR. (4) The next Bank monthly review for October, which will show whether import and fuel costs are still pushing the current account deficit wider.

"Appreciation on falling volume is a whisper, not a trend. The shilling has earned a breather, but a market this thin can change direction on a handful of orders."

— TICGL / Tanzania Economic Research Institute (TERI)

05 — What TICGL DoesTurning Currency Data into Decisions

Exchange-rate assumptions sit inside every feasibility study, market-entry plan and import-pricing decision. TICGL (Tanzania Investment and Consultant Group Ltd), with its research arm TERI, combines original economic research with practical advisory outputs across Tanzania and East Africa. Three technical service lines use the analysis in this report directly.

Feasibility Studies

Pre-feasibility and full feasibility studies for PPP and private projects.
Financial models with explicit FX paths, currency-split capex and revenue, NPV, IRR and DSCR.
Sensitivity ranges for TZS per USD and per EUR, with interest-rate and inflation linkages.
Risk-allocation and tariff-indexation review.

Market Entry Advisory

Sector screening and landed-cost modelling for importers and exporters.
Pricing and margin strategy under appreciation and depreciation cases.
Entry-mode choice, incentives, and currency-matched financing structure.
Regional (EAC) competitiveness analysis against KES, UGX and RWF.

Market Research

Weekly, monthly and quarterly financial-market monitoring from official sources.
Demand sizing and sector outlooks with FX-sensitive scenarios.
Primary surveys and stakeholder interviews with importers, exporters and banks.
Policy briefs, training materials and SEO-ready publications.

Why this matters to clients

A 0.5% move in the shilling is small. A 7.5% move since December is not. Models built on a December rate understate import costs, and models built on the July peak overstate them. A refreshed FX layer takes little time and removes avoidable mispricing.

Talk to TICGL/TERI

Request a feasibility, market-entry or market-research scoping call, or a fuller briefing on this series.

What We Do → TICGL Markets → TERI Research → ✉️ economist@ticgl.com

06 — SourcesMethod & Source Note

Basis

Source: Bank of Tanzania, Domestic Financial Markets Weekly Reports for 28 September–2 October 2026 and 5–9 October 2026 (Section 1: Tables 1–2, Charts 1–5), plus the Bank's Monthly Economic Review, September 2026 (Table A10 month-end exchange rates; Table 2.6.4 currency composition). Implied cross rates (USD per EUR, GBP, CNY, JPY, KES), two-week compounded changes, net demand by sector (banks' sales minus purchases), IFEM-to-retail ratios and debt-valuation effects are TICGL/TERI computations. Monthly turnover series are read from published chart labels. Retail FX turnover and IFEM turnover are in US dollars as published. This is Part 1 of a three-part series; Part 2 covers money market and liquidity, Part 3 covers government securities.

07 — Quick AnswersFrequently Asked Questions

What is the shilling exchange rate against the US dollar in October 2026?

TZS 2,631.36 per USD on 9 October, down 0.38% on the week and 0.53% below the 25 September close of TZS 2,645.45, so the shilling firmed.

How active is the interbank foreign exchange market?

Weekly IFEM turnover fell to USD 22.30 million from USD 29.90 million and USD 44.80 million in the two earlier weeks, a 50% fall.

How large is retail foreign exchange turnover?

USD 533.81 million in the week to 9 October, about 24 times interbank turnover, led by trade (USD 174.70 million), oil and energy (USD 74.18 million) and mining (USD 59.31 million).

Why did the shilling firm more against the euro?

It gained 2.1% on the euro against 0.5% on the dollar, which implies the euro weakened about 1.6% against the dollar (TICGL calc.).

Which sectors demand and supply foreign currency?

Trade, oil and energy and manufacturing are net buyers; mining, agriculture, tourism and NGOs are net suppliers (week to 9 October).

Muhtasari

Muhtasari kwa Kiswahili

Soko la Fedha za Kigeni la Tanzania: Shilingi Inaimarika kwa Kiasi Kidogo. Kwa mujibu wa ripoti mbili za wiki za Benki Kuu ya Tanzania (28 Sep – 9 Okt 2026), shilingi ilifunga wiki kwa TZS 2,631.36 kwa dola ya Marekani, ikiimarika kwa asilimia 0.38 kwa wiki na asilimia 0.53 ndani ya wiki mbili (kutoka TZS 2,645.45 tarehe 25 Septemba).

Sarafu nyingine: Shilingi iliimarika kwa asilimia 2.12 dhidi ya euro (TZS 3,008.14 hadi 2,944.49), asilimia 0.65 dhidi ya pauni, na asilimia 0.84 dhidi ya shilingi ya Kenya. Euro ilidhoofika kwa takriban asilimia 1.6 dhidi ya dola, hesabu ya TICGL.

Soko la fedha kati ya benki (IFEM): Miamala ilishuka hadi USD milioni 22.30 kutoka milioni 29.90 na milioni 44.80 wiki mbili zilizopita, yaani kushuka kwa asilimia 50. Hii inamaanisha shilingi inaimarika kwa kiasi kidogo cha biashara.

Soko la rejareja: Miamala ilikuwa USD milioni 533.81 wiki iliyopita, ikiongozwa na biashara (USD milioni 174.70), mafuta na nishati (74.18) na madini (59.31). Wanunuzi wakuu wa dola ni biashara, mafuta na viwanda; wauzaji wakuu ni madini, kilimo na utalii.

Kitendawili: Wiki ya mwisho wateja walinunua dola zaidi ya walizouza kwa USD milioni 63.95, lakini shilingi iliimarika. Takwimu za wiki hazielezi sababu, kwa hiyo ni ishara ya kufuatilia.

Ushauri: Waagizaji wafikirie kufunga bei sasa; wauzaji nje wapitie hatari ya margin. TICGL/TERI hutoa upembuzi yakinifu (feasibility), ushauri wa kuingia sokoni na utafiti wa soko wenye mawazo ya viwango vya ubadilishaji.

Hitimisho: Kuimarika kwa shilingi ni kwa kiasi kidogo na kwenye soko lenye kina kidogo. Kinachoamua mwelekeo ujao ni kama kiasi cha biashara kitaongezeka na kama mahitaji ya dola ya wateja yataendelea.

Kiwango cha 9 Okt: TZS 2,631.36 kwa USD (-0.53% katika wiki mbili)
IFEM wiki: USD milioni 22.3 (-50% katika wiki mbili)
Rejareja wiki: USD milioni 533.8
Mahitaji halisi ya dola wiki ya mwisho: USD milioni 63.9

Chanzo: Benki Kuu ya Tanzania, Domestic Financial Markets Weekly Reports (28 Sep – 9 Okt 2026). Kwa maelezo zaidi: economist@ticgl.com.

00 — OverviewExecutive Summary: Three Times the Volume, Almost No Price Move

IFEM Turnover: Previous Week vs This Week

IFEM Turnover by Day

Key findings

01 — The IFEM SurgeFrom USD 19.70 Million to USD 60.80 Million: Anatomy of a Threefold Jump

1.1 Day by day

Cumulative IFEM Turnover Through the Week

Weekly Pace: This Week vs the Longer Run

1.2 The long view: a market that has grown 3x in two years

Monthly IFEM Turnover, January 2024 to October 2026

How October 2026 Is Building Up

1.3 Was it capital flows, a few big trades, or something else?

1.4 Buying pressure or selling pressure?

02 — Retail FX & SectorsWho Supplied Dollars, Who Used Them, and What Changed in One Week

Total Turnover by Sector

Net Dollar Position by Sector

What Moved the Net Surplus: Sector Swing, This Week Minus Last

Purchases, Sales and the Net Surplus

Net Surplus: Two Weeks vs the Month's Average Pace

2.1 Oil & Energy and Mining: the two sectors that matter most

Mining and Oil & Energy: Purchases and Sales

03 — Exchange RatesThe Shilling Held Against the Dollar, Weakened Against Sterling and Strengthened Against the Ugandan Shilling

Weekly Change Against the Shilling

Dollar, Euro and Sterling in Shillings

04 — Money MarketShilling Liquidity: Rates Calm, Central Bank Still Injecting

Interbank Cash Market: Daily Volume and Weighted Average Rate

IFEM Volume vs Interbank Cash Rate

Weekly Money Market Totals

Reverse Repo Injections: Last 25 Operations

4.1 How the FX market and the money market connect

05 — Government SecuritiesA Bank-Dominated Auction, a Steep Short End and a Fast-Growing Investor Base

5.1 Who holds government securities

Government Securities by Holder

Stock by Instrument

New Registered Clients per Fiscal Year

5.2 Treasury bill auction 1209, 21 October 2026

T-bill Yield Curve at Auction 1209 vs the Policy Rate

Offered, Tendered and Allotted by Tenor

Bid-to-Cover Ratio by Tenor

06 — Outlook & WatchlistWhat Would Tell Us Whether the Surge Is a Blip or a Turn

6.1 Weekly indicators to track

6.2 Try the numbers

IFEM week-on-week calculator

Retail dollar position calculator

07 — TICGL & Your DecisionsWhat This Week's Market Means for Importers, Exporters, Investors and Lenders

Importers (oil, manufacturing, trade)

Exporters (mining, agriculture, tourism)

Investors and treasuries

Lenders and project sponsors

Market research & economic intelligence

Feasibility & financial modelling

Market entry & setup

Talk to TICGL/TERI

08 - Sources & AssumptionsMethod, Assumptions and Data Notes

09 - Quick AnswersFrequently Asked Questions

How much did Tanzania's interbank foreign exchange market (IFEM) turnover rise in the week to 23 October 2026?

Did the Tanzanian shilling weaken because of the IFEM surge?

Was the IFEM jump caused by oil and energy or mining flows?

Does the surge signal a dollar shortage in Tanzania?

What happened to interest rates in the interbank cash market?

What were the results of Treasury bill auction 1209?

What should businesses and investors watch next?

10 - Explore MoreTICGL Economic: Related Insights & Tools

Government Securities Dominance: The Crowding-Out Problem

Is Tanzania's Economy Growing?

What Opportunities and Risks Define Doing Business in Tanzania in 2026?

Why Tanzania's Economic Growth Has Not Been Sufficiently Inclusive

Mobilising Private Capital for Tanzania's Development

Invest in Tanzania

Tanzania Business Intelligence Dashboard

TICGL Economic Insights Dashboard

Join TICGL as a Researcher

Muhtasari kwa Kiswahili

00 — OverviewExecutive Summary: A Flat Total Hiding a Big Change in Who Supplies Dollars

What Moved Total Turnover: Contribution by Sector

Mining vs Everything Else

Key findings

01 — The Sector MapWho Supplies Dollars, Who Uses Them, and How the Shares Moved

Where Banks Get Their Dollars: Share of Purchases

Who Uses Banks' Dollars: Share of Sales