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| Economic Consulting Group

TICGL | Economic Consulting Group
Tanzania External Sector Performance 2026 | Current Account, Exports & Imports Analysis | TICGL
Bank of Tanzania · April 2026 Monthly Economic Review · TICGL Analysis

Tanzania External Sector Performance: Year Ending March 2026

A comprehensive breakdown of Tanzania's current account, goods and services exports, travel receipts, and import dynamics — with data tables, trend charts, and investment-grade insights.

Data Period: Year Ending March 2026 Source: Bank of Tanzania, Tanzania Revenue Authority Analysis: TICGL Economic Intelligence
Current Account Balance
−$2.68B
▼ Widened 33.3%
vs −$2.01B in Mar 2025
Total Exports (Goods & Services)
$18.60B
▲ +12.8% YoY
Year ending March 2026
Gold Exports
$5.22B
▲ +38.5% YoY
Largest single export driver
Travel Receipts (Tourism)
$4.34B
▲ +9.3% YoY
Robust international arrivals
Total Imports
$19.37B
▲ +13.6% YoY
Capital goods surge signals investment
Forex Reserves
$6.08B
▲ +6.9% YoY
Covers 4.7 months of imports

Current Account: Widening Deficit Driven by Import Growth

Tanzania's current account deficit widened to USD 2,680.1 million in the year ending March 2026, from USD 2,009.9 million in the corresponding period of 2025 — a deterioration of 33.3%. The primary driver was stronger growth in imports, particularly industrial supplies and capital goods, which outpaced robust export growth. Despite the widening, foreign exchange reserves remained adequate at USD 6,084.4 million — sufficient to cover 4.7 months of projected imports.

Key Insight: While the current account deficit widened, the composition of the import surge is constructive — capital goods and industrial supplies dominate, signalling a domestic investment-led expansion rather than consumption-driven deterioration. Gold exports provide a structural hedge against higher import costs.
Current Account Summary — Year Ending March
Millions of USD · Provisional data for 2026
ItemMar-25 (Monthly)Feb-26 (Monthly)Mar-26 (Monthly)2024 (Annual)2025 (Annual)2026p (Annual)Change %
Goods Account (Net)−318.9−341.5−762.8−6,049.5−4,524.9−4,891.3+8.1%
Exports of Goods713.61,070.1815.07,718.59,593.211,076.9+15.5%
Imports of Goods1,032.61,411.61,577.813,768.014,118.115,968.2+13.1%
Services Account (Net)242.7329.8190.34,093.23,972.04,121.0+3.8%
Services Receipts513.6627.0494.76,390.86,905.07,526.6+9.0%
Services Payments271.0297.2304.32,297.62,933.03,405.6+16.1%
Primary Income Account (Net)−167.6−220.0−214.8−1,583.9−1,987.5−2,181.5+9.8%
Secondary Income Account (Net)27.014.813.5698.2530.5271.7−48.8%
Current Account Balance−216.9−216.9−773.8−2,842.0−2,009.9−2,680.1+33.3%

Source: Tanzania Revenue Authority, banks, and Bank of Tanzania calculations. 'p' denotes provisional data.

Current Account Balance Trend
Annual (USD Millions) — 2021 to 2026
Goods vs Services Balance
Year ending March (USD Millions)
Foreign Exchange Reserves & Import Coverage
Gross official reserves (USD Millions) and months of import cover

Source: Bank of Tanzania. Country benchmark = 4.0 months; EAC benchmark = 4.5 months.

⚠ Risk Note: The secondary income surplus narrowed sharply by 48.8% to USD 271.7 million, driven mainly by a decline in personal transfers (remittances). This trend warrants monitoring as it reduces a historically reliable buffer within the current account.

Exports & Services Receipts: Gold and Tourism Lead the Surge

Total exports of goods and services reached USD 18,603.5 million in the year ending March 2026, a 12.8% increase from USD 16,498.2 million a year earlier. Gold and travel receipts jointly accounted for 51.4% of total exports. Goods exports rose 15.5% to USD 11,076.9 million while services receipts grew 9.0% to USD 7,526.6 million.

Goods Exports
$11.08B
▲ +15.5%
Gold Exports
$5.22B
▲ +38.5%
Manufactured Goods
$1.80B
▲ +32.0%
Traditional Exports
$1.61B
▲ +8.2%
Services Receipts
$7.53B
▲ +9.0%
Travel Receipts
$4.34B
▲ +9.3%
Exports of Goods & Services by Category
Year Ending March 2025 vs 2026p (USD Millions)

Source: Tanzania Revenue Authority and Bank of Tanzania computations.

Services Receipts by Category
Year Ending March (USD Millions)
Service Category2024 (Annual)2025 (Annual)2026p (Annual)YoY ChangeMar-26 (Monthly)vs Mar-25
Travel (Tourism)3,558.73,967.74,337.1+9.3%
Transport2,273.42,404.32,742.6+14.1%
Other Services558.7533.1446.9−16.2%
Total Services Receipts6,390.86,905.07,526.6+9.0%494.7−3.7%

Source: Banks and Bank of Tanzania computations. Other services include construction, insurance, financial, telecommunications, computer and information, IP charges, government, personal and business services.

Services Receipts Trend
Travel · Transport · Other (USD Millions) — 3-Year View
Services Receipts Composition 2026
Share of total services receipts
Key Goods Export Categories — Year Ending March
USD Millions · Selected major commodities
Commodity20222023202420252026pYoY Change
Non-Traditional Exports — Minerals
Gold2,670.82,890.03,106.63,771.15,222.8+38.5%
Diamond19.257.630.546.548.9+5.2%
Tanzanite23.926.221.218.915.5−18.0%
Non-Traditional Exports — Manufactured Goods
Manufactured Goods Total1,184.21,453.11,357.11,365.81,802.7+32.0%
Iron & Steel96.1105.168.192.2149.2+61.8%
Glassware47.850.468.793.4131.6+40.9%
Traditional Exports
Tobacco145.7173.1389.2517.2572.5+10.7%
Coffee161.8181.9227.7331.1389.6+17.7%
Cashewnuts195.2199.8224.7527.9479.3−9.2%
Cotton83.5107.7110.457.595.8+66.6%
Sisal19.126.619.027.633.0+19.6%
Tea31.330.428.419.911.7−41.2%
Total Goods Exports6,875.07,369.97,718.59,593.211,076.9+15.5%

Source: Tanzania Revenue Authority and Bank of Tanzania computations.

Gold Export Earnings: 5-Year Trajectory
USD Millions — Year Ending March 2022 to 2026
Tanzania's Gold-Oil Natural Hedge: Gold exports generate 30–40% of the country's foreign exchange earnings, with export values exceeding USD 5.2 billion in the year ending March 2026. During geopolitical episodes, oil and gold prices historically move in tandem — meaning higher oil costs are offset by expanded gold revenues. This structural feature provides Tanzania with macroeconomic resilience that most regional peers lack.

Imports & Services Payments: Investment-Led Growth with Energy Risk

Imports grew 13.6% to USD 19,373.8 million in the year ending March 2026. The expansion was concentrated in capital goods — industrial transport equipment (+42.5%), machinery (+24.2%), and electrical equipment (+41.0%) — signalling a robust acceleration in domestic investment. Refined petroleum product imports declined 12.8% but remain vulnerable to the Strait of Hormuz crisis-induced oil price surge. Services payments rose 16.1% to USD 3,405.6 million, driven by higher freight costs.

Goods Imports by Category — Year Ending March
USD Millions · Selected major categories
Category20222023202420252026pYoY Change
Capital Goods1,756.72,816.22,857.42,925.13,967.7+35.6%
Machinery & Mechanical Appliances747.31,228.31,209.61,057.21,313.2+24.2%
Industrial Transport Equipment485.5923.6930.91,095.51,561.7+42.5%
Electrical Machinery & Equipment298.0337.6424.4439.2619.3+41.0%
Intermediate Goods7,790.210,358.59,450.19,762.010,380.0+6.3%
Industrial Supplies3,721.94,740.94,355.94,781.55,601.0+17.1%
Fuel & Lubricants2,277.03,586.32,879.62,678.92,291.8−14.5%
→ Refined Petroleum Products2,167.43,392.42,664.22,514.02,192.8−12.8%
Fertilisers205.3622.4312.9378.6415.6+9.8%
Parts & Accessories944.8966.6985.51,108.01,173.0+5.9%
Consumer Goods1,235.91,368.61,458.31,428.81,618.3+13.3%
Pharmaceutical Products326.5314.7317.2261.2296.8+13.6%
Total Imports (f.o.b)10,785.014,545.513,768.014,118.115,968.2+13.1%

Source: Tanzania Revenue Authority and Bank of Tanzania computations. f.o.b. = free on board.

Imports by Broad Category
2025 vs 2026p (USD Millions)
Petroleum Products Import Trend
Refined white petroleum products (USD Millions)
Services Payments by Category
Year Ending March (USD Millions)
Service Category2024 (Annual)2025 (Annual)2026p (Annual)YoY ChangeMar-26 (Monthly)vs Mar-25
Travel363.3601.9715.1+18.8%
Transport (Freight)1,274.61,405.11,614.1+14.9%
Other Services659.7925.91,076.4+16.2%
Total Services Payments2,297.62,933.03,405.6+16.1%304.3+12.3%

Source: Banks and Bank of Tanzania computations. Other services include construction, insurance, financial, telecoms, IP charges, government, personal and business services.

Services Payments Trend: Travel · Transport · Other
USD Millions — Year Ending March 2024 to 2026
⚠ Strait of Hormuz Risk: Although refined petroleum import costs fell 12.8% in the year ending March 2026 (reflecting earlier price moderation), the military conflict that effectively closed the Strait in March 2026 has since driven crude oil prices to USD 95.58 per barrel (from USD 68.01 in February 2026). Container freight rates have surged above USD 4,800 per 40-foot unit. Both factors will materially increase import costs in the next reporting period.

In the year ending February 2025, Tanzania’s external sector showed remarkable improvement, with the current account deficit narrowing to USD 2.81 billion from USD 4.43 billion in the previous year. This positive shift was driven by a rise in total exports to USD 14.29 billion, up from USD 12.23 billion, supported by increased earnings from gold (USD 2.87 billion) and traditional exports like cashew nuts and coffee. Tourism earnings surged to USD 3.25 billion following 1.8 million international arrivals, marking a 33.6% rise. Meanwhile, the balance of payments deficit declined significantly to USD 58.6 million, signaling enhanced resilience in Tanzania’s foreign exchange position.

Tanzania’s External Sector Performance – February 2025

🔸 1. Current Account

🔹 2. Exports of Goods and Services

Breakdown:

🔹 3. Imports of Goods and Services

Composition:

🔸 4. Balance of Payments (BoP)

 5. Tourism Sector Update

What This Tells Us

Key Takeaways: What It Tells Us

  1. Improving External Balance
    Tanzania's current account deficit narrowed significantly from USD 4.43 billion to USD 2.81 billion, indicating a stronger trade performance. This shows the country is earning more foreign exchange through exports and services like tourism, while managing its import bill.
  2. Export Growth Is Driving Recovery
    Exports rose to USD 14.29 billion (from USD 12.23 billion), boosted by:
    • Gold exports (USD 2.87 billion)
    • Cashew nuts (USD 426.2 million)
    • Coffee and cotton
    • A surge in service exports (USD 6.07 billion), particularly in tourism and transport
  3. Tourism Is Back and Booming
    Tourism earned USD 3.25 billion, a 33.6% increase, with 1.8 million visitors. This is a clear sign of post-COVID recovery and improved destination appeal, contributing directly to foreign reserves and job creation.
  4. Imports Still High, but Stable
    Imports slightly increased to USD 17.91 billion, mainly due to essential imports like:
    • Refined petroleum (USD 3.66 billion)
    • Transport and industrial machinery This suggests a productive use of imports (e.g., infrastructure or industrialization), not just consumption.
  5. Balance of Payments Turning Positive
    The BoP deficit shrank from USD 713.2 million to just USD 58.6 million, showing better foreign exchange management and inflows from investments and grants. This boosts investor confidence and economic stability.

💡 Bottom Line:

Tanzania’s external sector shows resilience and recovery, with exports and tourism leading the way. If this trend continues, it will help strengthen the shilling, foreign reserves, and overall economic stability.

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