Tanzania’s food inflation is a significant component of its overall inflationary pressures, as detailed in the April 2025 Monthly Economic Review. Below, we compare food inflation with other key inflation components—headline, core, and energy, fuel, and utilities inflation—using specific figures from the document to highlight their relative levels, trends, and drivers.

Food Inflation

Figure: Food inflation was 5.4% in March 2025, up significantly from 1.4% in March 2024.

Explanation:

• Drivers: The increase was primarily due to higher prices for staple crops like maize, rice, and beans, exacerbated by logistical challenges in transportation caused by seasonal heavy rains. These disruptions increased supply chain costs, pushing food prices higher.
• Mitigation: The National Food Reserve Agency (NFRA) held 587,062 tonnes of food stocks (mainly maize and paddy) and released 32,598 tonnes to local traders by March 2025, which helped mitigate further price spikes.
• Context: Despite the rise, the overall food supply remained adequate, and food inflation’s contribution to overall inflation has grown, particularly from unprocessed food.

Headline Inflation

Figure: Headline inflation was 3.3% in March 2025, up from 3.0% in March 2024.

Explanation:

• Comparison: Food inflation (5.4%) is notably higher than headline inflation (3.3%), indicating that food prices are a major driver of overall price increases. The document notes that headline inflation’s rise was largely attributed to increases in food and energy prices.
• Context: Headline inflation includes all components of the Consumer Price Index (CPI), such as food, energy, and non-food items. Despite the uptick, it remains within national targets and regional benchmarks of the East African Community (EAC) and Southern African Development Community (SADC).
• Relative Impact: The higher food inflation rate suggests that food prices are pulling headline inflation upward, though other components moderate the overall rate.

Core Inflation

Figure: Core inflation decreased to 2.2% in March 2025 from 3.9% in March 2024.

Explanation:

• Comparison: Food inflation (5.4%) is more than double core inflation (2.2%), highlighting a stark contrast. Core inflation, which excludes volatile items like food, energy, and utilities, reflects underlying price pressures from non-food items.
• Trend: The decline in core inflation indicates reduced pressure from non-food items, such as services and goods excluding food and energy. The document notes that core inflation’s contribution to overall inflation has diminished, with unprocessed food inflation taking a larger role.
• Context: The lower core inflation rate helps keep headline inflation in check, but the high food inflation underscores the volatility of food prices compared to more stable non-food components.

Energy, Fuel, and Utilities Inflation

Figure: Energy, fuel, and utilities inflation increased to 7.9% in March 2025 from 6.6% in March 2024.

Explanation:

• Comparison: Energy, fuel, and utilities inflation (7.9%) is the highest among the components, surpassing food inflation (5.4%). This category saw the largest year-on-year increase, driven by rising prices of petroleum products and wood charcoal, the latter linked to scarcity following seasonal rains.
• Context: The document highlights that petroleum and wood charcoal price hikes were significant contributors. The weight of wood charcoal in the energy component of the CPI basket is noted but not quantified.
• Relative Impact: Energy inflation’s high rate amplifies overall price pressures more than food inflation, though both are key drivers of the 3.3% headline inflation.

Contribution to Overall Inflation

Figure: Unprocessed food inflation’s contribution to overall inflation has increased, while core inflation’s contribution has gradually diminished.

Explanation:

• Trend: The document indicates a shift in inflation dynamics, with unprocessed food (part of food inflation) becoming a more significant driver of headline inflation compared to core inflation. This is evident from food inflation’s high rate (5.4%) versus core inflation’s decline (2.2%).
• Impact: Food and energy inflation (7.9%) together exert stronger upward pressure on headline inflation (3.3%) than core inflation, reflecting the volatility of these components. The NFRA’s release of 32,598 tonnes of food stocks helped temper food inflation’s impact.
• Data Insight: The CPI weights show food and non-alcoholic beverages at 26.1% of the basket, energy, fuel, and utilities at 5.7%, and core items at 73.9%, suggesting food and energy have disproportionate impacts relative to their weights due to their volatility.

Conclusion

In March 2025, Tanzania’s food inflation (5.4%) is significantly higher than headline inflation (3.3%) and core inflation (2.2%) but lower than energy, fuel, and utilities inflation (7.9%). Food inflation, driven by maize, rice, and bean price hikes due to rain-related logistical issues, is a key contributor to overall inflation, alongside energy. Core inflation’s decline reflects easing non-food pressures, but the high food and energy rates highlight their volatility and impact on household costs. The NFRA’s 587,062-tonne food stock and 32,598-tonne release helped mitigate food inflation, keeping headline inflation within national and regional targets.

Key Figures: Tanzania’s Food Inflation vs. Other Inflation Components (March 2025)

Notes:

• All inflation figures reflect March 2025 unless stated otherwise.
• Food inflation driven by maize, rice, bean prices, and logistical issues from rains.
• Energy inflation driven by petroleum and wood charcoal price hikes.
• Source refer to the April 2025 Monthly Economic Review.

Tanzania’s food inflation rose to 5.4% in March 2025, a slight increase from 5.0% in February, but still remains below the country’s long-term average of 7.7% recorded between 2010 and 2025. This moderate inflation level reflects relative price stability in the country’s food sector despite global and regional challenges. Compared to its East African neighbors, Tanzania ranks 8th, performing better than Kenya (6.6%) and Ethiopia (11.9%), but trailing behind Uganda (2.0%) and Rwanda (3.5%). On a continental scale, Tanzania stands in the middle tier, significantly outperforming high-inflation countries like South Sudan (106%), Zimbabwe (105%), and Malawi (37.7%), indicating a relatively stable macroeconomic and food supply environment.

Tanzania Food Inflation: March 2025

• Current Rate: 5.4% (year-on-year)
• Previous Month: 5.0%
• Historical Average (2010–2025): 7.7%
• Historical High: 27.84% in Jan 2012
• Historical Low: 0.10% in Mar 2019

This shows that Tanzania’s food inflation is currently below its long-term average, suggesting moderate food price pressures compared to historical trends.

Tanzania in Africa (Ranking)

Tanzania ranks 18th out of 42 African countries listed in terms of food inflation (from highest to lowest), placing it in the mid-range.

• Countries like South Sudan (106%) and Zimbabwe (105%) have extremely high food inflation.
• Djibouti (-2.9%) and Somalia (-1.5%) are currently experiencing food deflation.

Tanzania in East Africa

Tanzania compares with selected East African countries:

Tanzania ranks 8th among East African countries based on current food inflation. It is lower than Kenya (6.6%), but higher than Uganda (2%) and Rwanda (3.5%).

Top 10 African Countries with Highest Food Inflation (Mar 2025)

These countries are facing severe food price pressures, likely due to economic instability, currency depreciation, or supply chain issues.

Summary Insights:

• Tanzania's food inflation of 5.4% is moderate by African standards.
• It is below regional giants like Kenya and Ethiopia, but above Uganda and Rwanda.
• Compared to Africa’s average, Tanzania sits in the middle tier for food inflation.

Tanzania’s food inflation (5.4% in March 2025) with several important things at national, regional, and continental levels:

1. National Insights (Tanzania)

• Moderate Pressure: Tanzania's food inflation is relatively moderate compared to its historical average of 7.7%.
• Stability Compared to History: It’s far below its peak in 2012 (27.84%) and shows price stability in recent months.
• Rising Trend: There is a slight increase from 5.0% in the previous month, suggesting growing food cost pressures—possibly due to seasonal factors, fuel prices, or currency trends.

2. Regional Comparison (East Africa)

• Tanzania ranks 8th in East Africa in terms of food inflation.
• Lower than Kenya (6.6%) and Ethiopia (11.9%), meaning Tanzania is managing food prices better than some key neighbors.
• Higher than Uganda (2%) and Rwanda (3.5%), which may indicate areas for improvement in food supply chains or agricultural productivity.
• Suggests Tanzania’s inflation is under control, but with room for better performance compared to top regional performers.

3. Continental Position (Africa)

• Tanzania ranks 18th out of 42 African countries in food inflation – putting it in the middle of the pack.
• It’s far better than countries in crisis like Zimbabwe (105%), South Sudan (106%), Malawi (37.7%), and Ghana (26.5%).
• Indicates relative economic and price stability compared to many African nations struggling with hyperinflation or conflict.

Overall Interpretation

• Tanzania is in a stable but cautious position.
• Food prices are increasing, but not alarmingly.
• Compared to peers in East Africa and Africa:
  • Tanzania is doing better than many.
  • But it can still learn from countries with lower inflation, like Uganda or Rwanda, in managing supply and price controls.