Global growth is projected to stabilize at 2.6% in 2024, rising to 2.7% by 2025-2026, which is slower than the pre-COVID average of 3.1%. Emerging Market and Developing Economies (EMDEs) are forecasted to grow at 4.0% in 2024, with Sub-Saharan Africa growing at 3.5%. Global inflation is expected to moderate to 3.5%, though it will remain above pre-pandemic levels, especially in EMDEs. Oil prices are set to average $84 per barrel in 2024, while non-energy commodity prices remain stable. Risks to growth include geopolitical tensions and high debt distress in 40% of EMDEs.
- Global Growth:
- Global GDP growth is projected to stabilize at 2.6% in 2024, with an expected increase to 2.7% in 2025-2026. This growth is slower than the 3.1% average in the decade before COVID-19.
- By 2026, 80% of the world’s population will experience slower growth compared to pre-pandemic levels.
- Regional Growth:
- Emerging Market and Developing Economies (EMDEs) are forecast to grow at 4.0% in 2024, down from 4.2% in 2023. China’s growth is expected to slow to 4.8% in 2024.
- Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to grow at 3.5% in 2024, with a rise to 4.0% in 2026.
- Global Inflation:
- Inflation is projected to moderate to 3.5% globally in 2024, but it will remain higher than pre-pandemic levels.
- Inflation in EMDEs is expected to decline but will remain challenging for many regions due to commodity price fluctuations.
- Commodity Prices:
- Oil prices are projected to be slightly higher in 2024, averaging $84 per barrel, but lower than 2023 prices.
- Prices for non-energy commodities are expected to remain stable.
- Risks to Global Growth:
- Escalating geopolitical tensions and trade fragmentation pose significant risks to global growth.
- Debt distress risks remain high for 40% of EMDEs, with many economies vulnerable to shocks.
Source: Global Economic Prospects June 2024 report
