Prepared by TERI for research and strategic-information purposes; it is not investment, legal, tax or financial advice. All market data come from the Bank of Tanzania weekly report. The report gives IFEM turnover only, not direction or counterparties, so statements about who was buying or selling are interpretations of the retail data and are labelled as such.
00 — OverviewExecutive Summary: Three Times the Volume, Almost No Price Move
Between 19 and 23 October 2026 the Interbank Foreign Exchange Market traded USD 60.80 million, up USD 41.10 million (+208.6%) from USD 19.70 million the week before. Activity built through the week: USD 7.60 million on Monday, USD 4.30 million on Tuesday, then USD 17.60 million, USD 12.20 million and USD 19.10 million from Wednesday to Friday. The Bank of Tanzania's indicative mean rate for the US dollar moved only from TZS 2,633.12 to TZS 2,636.74. A jump in volume with almost no jump in price tells us the market absorbed the extra turnover, but it does not tell us why it appeared. The retail data in the same report supply most of the clues.
IFEM Turnover: Previous Week vs This Week
IFEM Turnover by Day
Key findings
- The surge was late-week and lumpy. Wednesday to Friday accounted for USD 48.90 million, about 80% of the week, and Friday's USD 19.10 million was the biggest day of either week. That pattern fits position adjustments and larger tickets better than a steady drift in demand.
- It is not a dollar shortage on this evidence. Retail banks still bought more dollars (USD 302.69 million) than they sold (USD 272.99 million). The retail net surplus of USD 29.70 million is thinner than the previous week's USD 121.35 million, but it is above the roughly USD 14 million a five-day week implied by the past month's average daily purchases (USD 64.31 million) and sales (USD 61.48 million).
- The previous week looks like the outlier. Banks bought almost USD 121 million net from customers and IFEM was at USD 19.70 million, partly on a four-day week. Banks that were long dollars had less need to trade with each other. When the surplus faded and positions became more mixed, interbank redistribution rose.
- Mining supply fell, oil demand rose. Mining dollar purchases by banks dropped by USD 39.69 million and oil and energy sales rose by USD 12.00 million. Mining alone explains USD 41.04 million of the USD 91.65 million swing in net retail surplus.
- Interest rates stayed calm. The 7-day interbank rate closed at 6.59%, down from 6.68%, and averaged 6.42% against the 6.25% policy rate, while the Bank injected TZS 774.96 billion through reverse repos (TZS 892.50 billion the week before).
- Government securities are bank-led. At auction 1209 banks took 100% of subscriptions and allotments; short tenors (35 and 91 days) were undersubscribed while 182 and 364-day bills were oversubscribed, and all four yields sat below the 6.25% policy rate, with the 364-day bill closest at 6.13%, 12 bps under it.
The IFEM triple is best read as the interbank market redistributing dollars after the customer-side surplus faded, with mining supply down and oil and manufacturing demand up, rather than as evidence of capital flight or a shortage. The shilling's 0.14% move supports that reading. The risk to watch is the direction of the retail surplus: it has now fallen sharply for a week, and a second week of falling mining purchases plus rising oil sales would change the story. The next tabs show the numbers.
01 — The IFEM SurgeFrom USD 19.70 Million to USD 60.80 Million: Anatomy of a Threefold Jump
The IFEM is where banks trade foreign exchange with each other to square their positions. Higher turnover means more banks needed to move dollars among themselves, either because positions diverged or because larger deals came through. The report publishes only volume. This tab places the weekly jump in its daily, monthly and multi-year context, then tests the explanations the data allow.
1.1 Day by day
| Weekday | Previous week (12–16 Oct), USD m | This week (19–23 Oct), USD m | Change, USD m |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monday | 3.10 | 7.60 | +4.50 |
| Tuesday | 3.60 | 4.30 | +0.70 |
| Wednesday | no bar shown | 17.60 | +17.60 |
| Thursday | 5.00 | 12.20 | +7.20 |
| Friday | 8.00 | 19.10 | +11.10 |
| Week | 19.70 | 60.80 | +41.10 (+208.6%) |
Table 1.1. Source: Bank of Tanzania, Charts 1 and 2. The Bank's chart for the previous week has no bar on Wednesday 14 October, and the interbank cash market shows four trading days for the same week; 14 October is Nyerere Day, a public holiday (TICGL/TERI note, not stated in the report). On that basis the average was USD 4.93 million over four days against USD 12.16 million over five days this week, about 2.5 times.
Cumulative IFEM Turnover Through the Week
Weekly Pace: This Week vs the Longer Run
1.2 The long view: a market that has grown 3x in two years
Monthly IFEM turnover averaged about USD 50.9 million in 2024 (USD 611.1 million in total), rose to about USD 98.6 million in 2025 (USD 1,183.1 million) and has averaged about USD 152.2 million a month from January to September 2026 (USD 1,369.6 million so far). The Bank's monthly series peaked at USD 227.1 million in July 2026. In weekly terms, 2026 has run at about USD 35 million a week, so last week's USD 19.70 million was about 56% of that pace and this week's USD 60.80 million about 174% of it. The surge is therefore a swing from a quiet week to an active one on top of a market that has been structurally deepening, not a leap into unknown territory.
Monthly IFEM Turnover, January 2024 to October 2026
How October 2026 Is Building Up
This week alone is about 54% of October's USD 111.70 million month-to-date total. October therefore already sits near the 2026 monthly average (USD 152.2 million) with the last week of the month still to trade, and the month-end week is often busy. If volumes hold near this week's level, October would pass September's USD 151.65 million. The report does not state the cut-off date of the October bar, so this is an inference to be confirmed against the Bank's next monthly figure.
1.3 Was it capital flows, a few big trades, or something else?
| Explanation | What the report shows | What would confirm it | Fit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Banks redistributing dollars after a long-dollar week | Retail purchases fell from USD 363.12m to USD 302.69m while sales rose from USD 241.77m to USD 272.99m; net surplus fell from USD 121.35m to USD 29.70m. Banks that were flush last week were less in need of interbank dollars; this week positions diverged. | Bank-level position data; IFEM volume easing once retail surplus stabilises | Strongest |
| Weaker mining dollar supply | Mining purchases fell 60.3% (USD 65.77m to USD 26.08m); mining net inflow fell USD 41.04m. | Mining purchases staying low next week; export receipt timing from mining firms | Strong |
| Higher end-user dollar demand (oil, manufacturing) | Oil and Energy sales +21.0% to USD 69.06m; Manufacturing sales +33.1% to USD 37.24m. | Oil and energy sales staying above USD 65m a week; month-end import settlement | Strong |
| Large one-off or capital-account deals | 80% of the week's volume came Wednesday to Friday, with a USD 17.60m single day. The report does not break IFEM by counterparty, and T-bill auction 1209 shows no non-bank participation (banks 100%). | Bank of Tanzania commentary; non-resident portfolio data; capital-account releases | Possible, unverified |
| Calendar and base effect | The previous week appears to have had four trading days and was only 56% of the 2026 weekly pace. Even per trading day, this week is about 2.5 times last. | Next week's IFEM level against the USD 35m run-rate | Partial |
| Central bank participation | The weekly report does not say whether the Bank traded in IFEM; its only stated liquidity action is the TZS 774.96bn reverse repo. | Bank of Tanzania statements on FX operations | Not shown |
Table 1.3. TICGL/TERI assessment. "Fit" rates how well the published data support each explanation, not the probability that it is true.
1.4 Buying pressure or selling pressure?
IFEM volume has no sign. The retail side does. Banks sold more dollars to customers (up 12.9%) and bought fewer from them (down 16.6%), and the sectors that took dollars (oil and energy, manufacturing) grew while the sector that supplied them (mining) shrank. That is a swing toward dollar demand compared with last week. But the retail market remained a net buyer of dollars from customers, and the shilling moved just 0.14%. The fair summary is a shift from dollar abundance toward balance, not a shortage. The pressure indicator to watch is whether banks' sales to customers keep rising faster than their purchases.
Three observations in the same report point to an orderly market: the retail surplus was still positive; the interbank cash rate stayed inside the 4.75–7.75% corridor and closed lower; and the Bank was supplying shilling liquidity. None of these proves that no one was stretched, but together they argue against a disorderly dollar squeeze this week.
02 — Retail FX & SectorsWho Supplied Dollars, Who Used Them, and What Changed in One Week
Retail foreign exchange covers dollars that commercial banks buy from customers (purchases, dollar supply) and sell to customers (sales, dollar demand). Total retail turnover edged down to USD 575.68 million from USD 604.89 million (−USD 29.21 million, −4.8%). Trade (USD 172.34 million), Oil and Energy (USD 80.55 million) and Agriculture (USD 78.09 million) were the three biggest sectors, together USD 330.98 million or 57.5% of the week. Over the past month daily retail turnover averaged USD 125.79 million, made up of USD 64.31 million of purchases and USD 61.48 million of sales.
| Sector | Previous week (USD m) | This week (USD m) | Swing in net, USD m | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Purch. | Sales | Net | Purch. | Sales | Net | ||
| Trade | 97.56 | 83.72 | +13.84 | 84.15 | 88.19 | −4.04 | −17.88 |
| Oil & Energy | 7.73 | 57.06 | −49.33 | 11.49 | 69.06 | −57.57 | −8.24 |
| Agriculture | 62.74 | 10.27 | +52.47 | 64.28 | 13.81 | +50.47 | −2.00 |
| Manufacturing | 10.29 | 27.99 | −17.70 | 13.90 | 37.24 | −23.34 | −5.64 |
| Individual retail customers | 25.38 | 15.84 | +9.54 | 18.82 | 17.20 | +1.62 | −7.92 |
| Mining | 65.77 | 8.41 | +57.36 | 26.08 | 9.76 | +16.32 | −41.04 |
| Tourism | 24.81 | 2.07 | +22.74 | 28.55 | 3.92 | +24.63 | +1.89 |
| Transport & Communication | 29.80 | 6.03 | +23.77 | 21.16 | 10.12 | +11.04 | −12.73 |
| Construction (machinery & equipment) | 19.44 | 19.73 | −0.29 | 9.92 | 13.50 | −3.58 | −3.29 |
| Social services | 10.44 | 5.31 | +5.13 | 11.58 | 5.56 | +6.02 | +0.89 |
| NGOs | 9.05 | 2.37 | +6.68 | 12.01 | 0.42 | +11.59 | +4.91 |
| Breweries / Beverages | 0.13 | 2.96 | −2.83 | 0.75 | 4.19 | −3.44 | −0.61 |
| Total | 363.12 | 241.77 | +121.35 | 302.69 | 272.99 | +29.70 | −91.65 |
Table 2.1. Weekly commercial banks' retail FX transactions by sector. Purchases and sales are from the Bank of Tanzania (Table 2); "net" is purchases minus sales, i.e. dollars banks absorbed from customers minus dollars they supplied (TICGL/TERI calc.). Small differences from the Bank's published totals are rounding.
Total Turnover by Sector
Net Dollar Position by Sector
What Moved the Net Surplus: Sector Swing, This Week Minus Last
Purchases, Sales and the Net Surplus
Net Surplus: Two Weeks vs the Month's Average Pace
2.1 Oil & Energy and Mining: the two sectors that matter most
Mining and Oil & Energy: Purchases and Sales
Mining banks' dollar purchases fell by more than half, USD 65.77 million to USD 26.08 million, taking mining's net inflow from USD 57.36 million to USD 16.32 million. Mining is lumpy because export receipts arrive in batches, so one week of weak purchases may be timing. It matters for the IFEM because mining was the largest single supplier of dollars to banks the week before, so its fade leaves some banks short relative to customer demand.
Banks sold USD 69.06 million to oil and energy customers, up 21.0%, and total sector turnover rose 24.3% to USD 80.55 million. This is the single largest net user of dollars in the retail market (net −USD 57.57 million) and the one most exposed to month-end settlement. Manufacturing, the next biggest user, saw sales rise 33.1% to USD 37.24 million.
The sector table describes customers' dealings with commercial banks, not the interbank counterparties. It is the best available explanation of why banks needed to trade among themselves more, but the IFEM data are not broken down by sector. The link between mining and oil flows and IFEM volume is therefore an inference from timing and direction, and should be tested again with next week's report.
03 — Exchange RatesThe Shilling Held Against the Dollar, Weakened Against Sterling and Strengthened Against the Ugandan Shilling
The Bank of Tanzania's indicative mean rate for the US dollar closed the week at TZS 2,636.74, from TZS 2,633.12, a depreciation of the shilling of 0.14%. The shilling weakened most against sterling (1.09%), the yen (0.63%), the renminbi and the rupee (0.39% each), and by smaller amounts against the euro (0.06%) and the Kenyan shilling (0.14%). It strengthened against the Ugandan shilling, whose rate fell from TZS 0.65 to TZS 0.61 (−5.79% as published; the two-decimal rates round heavily).
| Currency | 16 Oct 2026 (TZS) | 23 Oct 2026 (TZS) | Change (%) | Direction for the shilling |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| British Pound Sterling | 3,487.83 | 3,525.85 | +1.09 | Weaker |
| Chinese Yuan (Renminbi) | 393.52 | 395.06 | +0.39 | Weaker |
| Euro | 2,950.67 | 2,952.36 | +0.06 | Broadly unchanged |
| Indian Rupee | 27.70 | 27.81 | +0.39 | Weaker |
| Japanese Yen | 16.67 | 16.78 | +0.63 | Weaker |
| Kenyan Shilling | 20.25 | 20.28 | +0.14 | Broadly unchanged |
| Rwandan Franc | 1.78 | 1.78 | +0.09 | Broadly unchanged |
| Ugandan Shilling | 0.65 | 0.61 | −5.79 | Stronger |
| United States Dollar | 2,633.12 | 2,636.74 | +0.14 | Slightly weaker |
Table 3.1. Selected exchange rates, TZS per unit of foreign currency. Source: Bank of Tanzania, Table 1. A positive change means the foreign currency became more expensive in shillings.
Weekly Change Against the Shilling
Dollar, Euro and Sterling in Shillings
A move of 0.14% against the dollar in a week in which interbank volume tripled is small. It shows the extra dollar trading cleared without forcing a price move. The bigger moves against sterling and the yen are largely about those currencies' own movements against the dollar, since the shilling's rate to the dollar barely changed. Importers paying in sterling saw the sharpest cost increase this week.
04 — Money MarketShilling Liquidity: Rates Calm, Central Bank Still Injecting
The interbank cash market (IBCM) is where banks lend each other shillings. Its weighted average rate (WAR) closed the week at 6.59%, down from 6.68%. The 7-day weekly WAR averaged 6.42%, inside the Central Bank Rate corridor of 4.75% to 7.75% and 17 basis points above the Central Bank Rate (CBR) of 6.25%. Total 7-day trading volume fell to TZS 587.45 billion from TZS 812.65 billion. The Bank ran its 7-day reverse repo through main operations at the CBR, injecting TZS 774.96 billion, down from TZS 892.50 billion.
Interbank Cash Market: Daily Volume and Weighted Average Rate
IFEM Volume vs Interbank Cash Rate
Weekly Money Market Totals
Reverse Repo Injections: Last 25 Operations
4.1 How the FX market and the money market connect
This week's evidence is consistent with a smooth chain. The 7-day cash rate was 6.16% to 6.59% every day this week, volume dipped to TZS 28.0 billion on Wednesday 21 October (the same day IFEM trading reached USD 17.60 million and Treasury bill auction 1209 was held) and recovered to TZS 143.1 billion the next day. We note the coincidence but cannot infer causality from one week. The practical point is that shilling funding did not tighten as dollar trading surged.
The Bank describes a weekly WAR 17 bps above the CBR as "consistent with the Bank's policy stance". Rates a little above the policy rate with active reverse repos mean the central bank is meeting demand for liquidity at the policy rate, not leaving banks to bid it up. A rise of the WAR toward the 7.75% corridor ceiling would be the sign of real stress.
05 — Government SecuritiesA Bank-Dominated Auction, a Steep Short End and a Fast-Growing Investor Base
Outstanding government securities stand at TZS 34,217.52 billion, of which Treasury bonds are TZS 30,537.77 billion (89.25%) and Treasury bills TZS 3,679.76 billion (10.75%). Banks (34.43%), pension funds (29.70%) and retail investors (17.70%) hold the biggest shares. The Bank of Tanzania reports that 4,015 new clients have been onboarded in the current fiscal year, bringing registered clients to 35,517.
5.1 Who holds government securities
| Investor category | Face value (TZS bn) | Share (%) |
|---|---|---|
| Banks | 11,780.30 | 34.43 |
| Pension funds | 10,162.80 | 29.70 |
| Retail investors | 6,055.95 | 17.70 |
| CIS and other official entities | 2,757.91 | 8.06 |
| Insurance companies | 2,475.06 | 7.23 |
| Others | 985.51 | 2.88 |
| Total | 34,217.52 | 100.00 |
Table 5.1. Source: Bank of Tanzania, Table 3.
Government Securities by Holder
Stock by Instrument
New Registered Clients per Fiscal Year
5.2 Treasury bill auction 1209, 21 October 2026
The auction offered 35, 91, 182 and 364-day bills and attracted 88 bids, of which 65 were successful. TZS 457.58 billion was tendered against TZS 388.70 billion offered, an aggregate oversubscription of TZS 68.88 billion, and TZS 360.90 billion was allotted. The aggregate masks a split: the two short tenors were undersubscribed (bid-to-cover 0.80x and 0.74x), while 182 and 364-day bills were oversubscribed (1.26x and 1.42x). Banks accounted for 100% of subscriptions and allotments.
| Item | 35 days | 91 days | 182 days | 364 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maturity date | 26 Nov 2026 | 21 Jan 2027 | 22 Apr 2027 | 21 Oct 2027 |
| Bids received / successful | 9 / 9 | 14 / 14 | 30 / 25 | 35 / 17 |
| Highest bid (per 100) | 99.7418 | 99.2576 | 97.7101 | 94.4342 |
| Lowest bid (per 100) | 99.6161 | 98.9846 | 96.8551 | 91.5544 |
| Minimum successful price (per 100) | 99.6161 | 98.9846 | 97.0481 | 94.0710 |
| WAP, successful bids (per 100) | 99.6619 | 99.1017 | 97.2971 | 94.2353 |
| Weighted average yield (%) | 3.54 | 3.64 | 5.57 | 6.13 |
| Amount offered (TZS m) | 49,900.0 | 69,900.0 | 99,900.0 | 169,000.0 |
| Total tendered (TZS m) | 40,000.0 | 52,000.0 | 125,500.0 | 240,080.0 |
| Tendered minus offered (TZS m) | −9,900.0 | −17,900.0 | +25,600.0 | +71,080.0 |
| Successful bids (TZS m) | 40,000.0 | 52,000.0 | 99,900.0 | 169,000.0 |
| Bid-to-cover ratio | 0.80x | 0.74x | 1.26x | 1.42x |
Table 5.2. Source: Bank of Tanzania, Table 5. The Bank prints "under/oversubscribed" with the opposite sign to the one used here (it shows +9,900.0 for the 35-day bill, which was undersubscribed); this page shows tendered minus offered so that oversubscription is positive. The four allotments sum to TZS 360.90 billion.
T-bill Yield Curve at Auction 1209 vs the Policy Rate
Offered, Tendered and Allotted by Tenor
Bid-to-Cover Ratio by Tenor
Bidding was cautious at the very short end: the 35 and 91-day bills yield only 3.5–3.6%, well under the 6.25% policy rate and under the 6.1–6.7% daily interbank rates, which may explain why those tenors were undersubscribed (TICGL/TERI interpretation; the report gives no reason). The 364-day yield of 6.13% is the only tenor close to the policy rate. The Bank has also scheduled the next auction for Wednesday 28 October 2026, when a 20-year Treasury bond will be offered under the issuance calendar.
06 — Outlook & WatchlistWhat Would Tell Us Whether the Surge Is a Blip or a Turn
One week of data cannot establish a trend, so this tab sets out three illustrative paths for the next few weeks and the indicators in the Bank's weekly report that would distinguish them. The bands are TICGL/TERI illustrations anchored on the 2026 weekly IFEM pace (about USD 35 million) and this week's level, not forecasts.
| Path | IFEM weekly turnover | Retail net dollar position | Shilling and rates |
|---|---|---|---|
| A. Orderly normalisation | Falls back toward USD 25–40m, near the 2026 pace | Mining purchases recover; net surplus rebuilds above the month's average pace (about USD 14m a week) | USD/TZS drifts within a narrow range; WAR stays near the 6.25% CBR |
| B. Elevated and two-way | Stays USD 45–65m as banks keep rebalancing | Surplus stays thin, but positive | Mild shilling weakness; WAR near 6.4–6.7%; reverse repos continue |
| C. Dollar-demand squeeze | Stays high or rises further | Net surplus turns negative (sales above purchases) for more than one week, led by oil, manufacturing and trade | Faster depreciation; WAR moves toward the upper corridor; more official operations likely |
Table 6.1. Illustrative paths. Based on the single week reported; no probabilities are attached.
6.1 Weekly indicators to track
| Indicator | This week | Signal to watch |
|---|---|---|
| IFEM turnover | USD 60.80m | Stays above the USD 35m 2026 weekly pace or fades |
| Retail net dollar surplus | USD 29.70m | Turns negative, or rebuilds |
| Sales-to-purchases ratio | 0.90 (0.67 last week; 0.96 month average) | Rises toward or above 1.0 |
| Mining purchases | USD 26.08m | Rebound toward the USD 65m of the prior week |
| Oil & Energy sales | USD 69.06m | Further increase beyond USD 70m a week |
| USD / TZS | 2,636.74 | Weekly move well above 0.14% |
| IBCM 7-day WAR | 6.59% (CBR 6.25%) | Moves toward the 7.75% corridor ceiling |
| Reverse repo injection | TZS 774.96bn | Return above TZS 890bn |
| 20-year bond auction, 28 Oct | Scheduled | Bid-to-cover and the yield level relative to the T-bill curve |
6.2 Try the numbers
IFEM week-on-week calculator
Defaults are this report's figures. Change them to test next week's turnover against the 2026 pace.
Retail dollar position calculator
Enter a week's bank purchases from customers and sales to customers (Table 2 totals).
Triple the volume with a 0.14% price move is a market absorbing a rebalancing. The test is the next two weeks: if mining supply stays weak while oil and manufacturing demand stays firm, the retail surplus, not the interbank volume, is the number that will tell us the dollar cushion is thinning.
TICGL/TERI reading of the Bank of Tanzania weekly data, October 202607 — TICGL & Your DecisionsWhat This Week's Market Means for Importers, Exporters, Investors and Lenders
The weekly market data matter most when they feed a decision: pricing an import contract, timing an export receipt, setting a project's FX assumptions or sizing a shilling funding line. TICGL (Tanzania Investment and Consultant Group Ltd), with its research arm TERI, turns these readings into decision tools: market research and economic intelligence, feasibility and financial models with FX and interest-rate sensitivities, and market-entry support.
Importers (oil, manufacturing, trade)
- This week's rising dollar sales to oil and manufacturing sectors show the demand you share the market with.
- Month-end timing of settlements and sterling or yen exposure matter this week.
Exporters (mining, agriculture, tourism)
- Mining purchases fell sharply while agriculture and tourism stayed steady.
- Timing of conversion and the 0.14% weekly move are part of margin planning.
Investors and treasuries
- Short bills yield 3.5–3.6% against 6.4–6.6% in interbank lending.
- The 20-year bond auction on 28 October is the next pricing signal.
Lenders and project sponsors
- FX assumptions in a financial model should be stress-tested against rate drift and the sales-to-purchases ratio.
- Shilling funding costs tracked by the WAR relative to the CBR.
Market research & economic intelligence
Recurring weekly and monthly reads of the Bank of Tanzania data series, with sector and policy interpretation, tailored to your exposures.
Feasibility & financial modelling
Models built to withstand a lender's review, with FX path, interest-rate and demand scenarios, DSCR, NPV and IRR.
Market entry & setup
Entry-mode strategy, company registration, incentive certificates and approvals, with currency and funding structure planned from the start.
Talk to TICGL/TERI
Request a briefing on this week's FX and money-market data for your business, or a scoping call for a feasibility, market-entry or market-research study.
What We Do →TICGL Markets →TERI Research →Book a consultation →✉️ economist@ticgl.com08 - Sources & AssumptionsMethod, Assumptions and Data Notes
Source report. Bank of Tanzania, Domestic Financial Markets Weekly Report, 19–23 October 2026 (six pages: foreign exchange, money market, government securities). Calculations. Net retail positions, sector swings, multiples, per-day and per-week averages, cumulative series, share-of-month figures and the month-average net pace are TICGL/TERI arithmetic on the Bank's published figures. Limitations. One week of data; the report gives IFEM turnover without direction or counterparties.
Assumptions and reconciliation notes
| Item | Treatment on this page |
|---|---|
| Purchases and sales in retail FX | Read as the banks' purchases of dollars from customers (dollar supply) and sales of dollars to customers (dollar demand); "net" is purchases minus sales. |
| Previous week trading days | The Bank's IFEM chart for 12–16 October has no bar for 14 October and the IBCM chart shows four daily observations; 14 October is a public holiday (Nyerere Day), which is TICGL/TERI context, not stated in the report. Per-day comparisons use four days for last week. |
| Monthly IFEM series | Values read in order from the Bank's Chart 3 (January 2024 to October 2026, 34 bars). The October 2026 bar is treated as month to date, which is an assumption. |
| 2024, 2025 and 2026 averages | Sums of the monthly bars: 2024 USD 611.1m (avg 50.9m); 2025 USD 1,183.1m (avg 98.6m); 2026 January–September USD 1,369.6m (avg 152.2m). Weekly pace = monthly average ÷ 4.345. |
| Month-average retail net | The Bank states past-month daily averages of USD 64.31m purchases and USD 61.48m sales; the net of USD 2.83m a day is multiplied by five for a weekly pace of about USD 14.15m. The report does not say how many days the month covers. |
| Auction 1209 sign convention | The Bank prints "under/oversubscribed" as offered minus tendered; this page shows tendered minus offered. |
| Registered clients by year | Fiscal-year labels for Chart 9 are inferred (15 bars ending with the current year); only the current-year 4,015 and the total 35,517 are stated in text. |
| Not charted | The monthly retail FX turnover (Chart 4), the daily retail moving average (Chart 5) and the sovereign yield curve (Chart 10) are not reproduced because their values are not given in the report's text. The T-bill yields by tenor are used instead. |
| Rounding | The Ugandan shilling's change (−5.79%) is as published; two-decimal rates (0.65 and 0.61) imply a different figure. Totals may differ from component sums by rounding. |
- Bank of Tanzania, Domestic Financial Markets Weekly Report, 19–23 October 2026 (Tables 1–5, Charts 1–10).
- TICGL/TERI analysis and calculations on the above.
09 - Quick AnswersFrequently Asked Questions
How much did Tanzania's interbank foreign exchange market (IFEM) turnover rise in the week to 23 October 2026?
IFEM turnover rose to USD 60.80 million from USD 19.70 million the week before, an increase of USD 41.10 million, or about 209 percent, roughly 3.1 times. The previous week also appears to have had only four trading days, but even per trading day the rise is about 2.5 times.
Did the Tanzanian shilling weaken because of the IFEM surge?
Only slightly. The shilling closed at TZS 2,636.74 per US dollar, up 0.14 percent from TZS 2,633.12, so the tripling of interbank volume was absorbed with almost no price move.
Was the IFEM jump caused by oil and energy or mining flows?
The retail data are consistent with both playing a role, though the weekly report does not identify IFEM counterparties. Mining dollar purchases by banks fell about 60 percent from USD 65.77 million to USD 26.08 million, while oil and energy dollar sales rose about 21 percent from USD 57.06 million to USD 69.06 million.
Does the surge signal a dollar shortage in Tanzania?
Not on the evidence in the report. Retail banks still bought more dollars (USD 302.69 million) than they sold (USD 272.99 million), a net surplus of USD 29.70 million. But that surplus was only a quarter of the previous week's USD 121.35 million, so the cushion is thinner.
What happened to interest rates in the interbank cash market?
The 7-day interbank cash market weighted average rate closed at 6.59 percent, down from 6.68 percent, and averaged 6.42 percent for the week, 17 basis points above the Central Bank Rate of 6.25 percent and inside the 4.75 to 7.75 percent corridor.
What were the results of Treasury bill auction 1209?
On 21 October 2026 the Bank of Tanzania allotted TZS 360.90 billion against TZS 457.58 billion tendered. Weighted average yields were 3.5379 percent for 35 days, 3.6357 percent for 91 days, 5.5712 percent for 182 days and 6.1342 percent for 364 days. Banks took 100 percent of the allotment.
What should businesses and investors watch next?
Watch whether weekly IFEM volume stays above the 2026 pace of about USD 35 million, whether the retail net dollar surplus keeps shrinking, mining purchases and oil sales by banks, the 7-day interbank rate against the 6.25 percent policy rate, and the 28 October 20-year Treasury bond auction.
Muhtasari kwa Kiswahili
Soko la fedha za kigeni kati ya benki (IFEM) limeongezeka mara tatu kwa wiki moja: kutoka USD milioni 19.70 hadi USD milioni 60.80. Katika wiki ya tarehe 19 hadi 23 Oktoba 2026, shilingi ilifunga kwa TZS 2,636.74 kwa dola moja, ikipungua thamani kwa asilimia 0.14 tu kutoka TZS 2,633.12. Yaani, kiasi cha biashara kiliongezeka sana lakini bei ilibadilika kidogo mno. Uchambuzi huu wa TICGL/TERI unatumia ripoti ya wiki ya Benki Kuu ya Tanzania (BoT) kueleza kilichotokea.
Ongezeko lilikuwa kubwa na lilijikita mwishoni mwa wiki: Jumatatu USD milioni 7.60, Jumanne 4.30, kisha Jumatano 17.60, Alhamisi 12.20 na Ijumaa 19.10. Siku tatu za mwisho zilibeba takriban asilimia 80 ya wiki nzima. Wiki iliyotangulia ilionekana kuwa na siku nne za biashara (tarehe 14 Oktoba ni sikukuu ya Nyerere), lakini hata kwa wastani wa siku, ongezeko ni takriban mara 2.5.
Je, ni mtiririko mkubwa wa mitaji au biashara kubwa? Ripoti haitoi wahusika wa IFEM, kwa hiyo hatuwezi kuthibitisha. Takwimu za rejareja zinaonyesha chanzo kinachowezekana zaidi: wiki iliyotangulia benki zilinunua dola nyingi sana kutoka kwa wateja (ziada halisi ya USD milioni 121.35), na wiki hii ziada hiyo ilishuka hadi USD milioni 29.70 (upungufu wa asilimia 75.5). Benki zilizokuwa na dola nyingi zilihitaji kufanya biashara kidogo kati yao; nafasi zilipotofautiana, biashara kati ya benki ilipanda.
Uhusiano na Mafuta na Nishati (Oil & Energy) na Madini (Mining): Ununuzi wa dola wa sekta ya Madini ulishuka kwa asilimia 60.3 (USD milioni 65.77 hadi 26.08), ukiwa sababu kubwa zaidi ya kupungua kwa ziada halisi (USD milioni 41.04 kati ya 91.65). Mauzo ya dola kwa sekta ya Mafuta na Nishati yalipanda asilimia 21.0 (USD milioni 57.06 hadi 69.06), na Viwanda (Manufacturing) asilimia 33.1. Kwa ujumla, upande wa usambazaji wa dola ulidhoofika na upande wa mahitaji uliimarika.
Je, ni shinikizo la kutoa au kuingiza dola? Ni mabadiliko kuelekea mahitaji ya dola ikilinganishwa na wiki iliyopita, lakini si uhaba. Benki bado zilinunua dola nyingi (USD milioni 302.69) kuliko zilivyouza (272.99), na shilingi ilisogea kwa asilimia 0.14 tu. Kiashiria cha kufuatilia ni kama ziada hiyo itaendelea kupungua na kuwa hasi.
Soko la fedha la shilingi: Riba ya siku 7 ya soko la fedha kati ya benki (IBCM) ilifunga kwa asilimia 6.59 (kutoka 6.68), wastani wa wiki 6.42, ambao ni pointi 17 juu ya Riba ya Benki Kuu (CBR) ya asilimia 6.25 na ndani ya ukanda wa asilimia 4.75 hadi 7.75. BoT iliingiza TZS bilioni 774.96 kupitia Reverse Repo (wiki iliyopita bilioni 892.50). Dhamana za Serikali: mnada wa hati fungani za muda mfupi (Na. 1209, tarehe 21 Oktoba) uligawa TZS bilioni 360.90; mavuno yalikuwa asilimia 3.54 (siku 35), 3.64 (siku 91), 5.57 (siku 182) na 6.13 (siku 364); benki zilichukua asilimia 100. Mnada ujao ni Jumatano 28 Oktoba 2026 (hatifungani ya miaka 20).
Hitimisho: Kuongezeka mara tatu kwa IFEM ni ishara ya benki kugawana upya dola baada ya ziada ya wateja kupungua, si dalili ya uhaba wa dola. Wiki mbili zijazo zitaonyesha kama ni hali ya muda au mwelekeo mpya.
- IFEM: USD milioni 19.70 hadi 60.80 (mara 3.1) · USD/TZS: 2,636.74 (+0.14%)
- Ziada halisi ya dola rejareja: USD milioni 121.35 hadi 29.70 · Madini −60.3% · Mafuta na Nishati (mauzo) +21.0%
- IBCM asilimia 6.59 · CBR asilimia 6.25 · Reverse Repo TZS bilioni 774.96
Chanzo: Benki Kuu ya Tanzania, Domestic Financial Markets Weekly Report (19–23 Oktoba 2026); mahesabu ya TICGL/TERI. Kwa maelezo zaidi: economist@ticgl.com.