A 25-Year Journey Toward Regional Unity

TICGL’s Economic Research Centre has published a comprehensive research paper authored by Dr. Bravious Felix Kahyoza (PhD, FMVA, CP3P), which examines the evolution of the East African Community (EAC) from 1999 to 2024. The paper analyzes how budgetary strategies, infrastructure investments, and conflict management mechanisms have influenced the region’s pursuit of economic integration, political cooperation, and sustainable development.

Drawing on his expertise in financial modeling, valuation, and regional economic policy, Dr. Kahyoza provides a nuanced evaluation of the EAC’s institutional growth and policy dynamics, offering actionable insights to strengthen regional cohesion, fiscal coordination, and long-term stability across member states.

With eight Partner States—Burundi, Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Kenya, Rwanda, Somalia, South Sudan, Tanzania, and Uganda—the EAC now unites over 330 million people with a combined GDP projected to reach USD 320 billion by 2025. The paper argues that despite remarkable achievements in trade facilitation and infrastructure development, the region must urgently address persistent security challenges, economic disparities, and non-tariff barriers to realize its vision of a federated political union by 2050.

Key Findings and Insights

• Impressive economic resilience: The EAC maintained an average GDP growth rate of 5.9% during 2010-2019, outperforming the African continental average of 3.4%. Despite COVID-19 disruptions, growth is projected to rebound to 5.4% in 2025 and 5.7% by 2026, making East Africa one of the continent's fastest-growing regions.
• Strategic budget expansion: The EAC budget increased from USD 91.4 million in FY 2021/22 to USD 109.0 million in FY 2025/26, with 20-21% allocated to peace and security initiatives—demonstrating the Community's commitment to conflict resolution and regional stability.
• Infrastructure transformation: Flagship projects like the Standard Gauge Railway (SGR) connecting Mombasa to Kampala and Kigali have reduced freight costs by 40% (from USD 120 to USD 60 per ton), transported 10 million tons of cargo annually, and boosted Uganda's exports by 15%.
• Trade integration success: The 2005 Customs Union and 2010 Common Market have driven intra-EAC trade from USD 2.6 billion in 2005 to USD 15.2 billion in 2024—a 484% increase. In Q1 2025 alone, intra-regional trade surged by 53.6%, comprising 20-25% of total EAC commerce.
• Social development progress: The EAC Integrated Health Programme (2024-2027), backed by SEK 500 million from Sweden, has achieved 90% vaccination coverage in joint campaigns, prevented USD 100 million in disease-related losses, and expanded telemedicine access to 2 million rural residents.
• Persistent security challenges: Conflicts in South Sudan, eastern DRC, and Burundi cost the region an estimated USD 2.5 billion annually in lost productivity and have displaced over 6 million people, undermining integration efforts and deterring foreign investment.
• Non-tariff barriers crisis: The number of active Non-Tariff Barriers (NTBs) surged to 48 by May 2025 (from just 10 in late 2024), costing the region USD 500 million per year and reducing trade volumes by 20%, particularly in agriculture and manufacturing sectors.

Policy Gaps and Opportunities

While the EAC has established robust frameworks—including the Customs Union Protocol, Common Market Protocol, and Conflict Prevention and Management Mechanism (CPMM)—implementation gaps persist, particularly in:

Key structural constraints include:

• Economic disparities: GDP per capita ranges from USD 2,100 in Kenya to just USD 230 in Burundi, creating imbalances that hinder equitable benefit-sharing and monetary union convergence.
• Infrastructure deficits: An estimated USD 42 billion annual financing gap keeps logistics costs at 12% of GDP (versus 8% globally), with only 40% rural electrification and poor road connectivity.
• Political volatility: Ongoing conflicts in fragile states disrupt trade routes, generate humanitarian crises, and strain the CPMM's mediation capacity despite USD 15 million annual spending.
• Budgetary constraints: Partner State contribution arrears average 20% of pledged amounts, delaying 15% of planned projects and forcing 38% donor dependency.
• Monetary union delays: Fiscal disparities—inflation ranging from 3.5% in Tanzania to 20% in South Sudan—have postponed the single currency target from 2024 to 2027.

Strategic Solutions and Recommendations

To unlock the EAC's full integration potential and achieve projected gains of USD 10 billion in additional exports by 2030 under AfCFTA synergies, the paper proposes comprehensive reforms:

1. Strengthening Economic Integration:

• Expand the Single Customs Territory (SCT) with electronic cargo tracking to eliminate 50% of NTBs by 2027 and increase intra-EAC trade to 30% of total commerce.
• Develop regional value chains in agriculture and manufacturing (e.g., cashew processing hubs linking Tanzania and Kenya) to boost exports by 30% and create 100,000 jobs annually.

2. Accelerating Infrastructure Development:

• Fast-track SGR and Northern Corridor extensions to connect all Partner States by 2030, reducing transport costs by an additional 20% through USD 5 billion in blended financing from AfDB and domestic bonds.
• Deploy a regional broadband network under the Eastern Africa Regional Digital Integration Project (EARDIP), targeting 80% internet penetration to support e-commerce growth to USD 3 billion by 2028.

3. Enhancing Peace and Security:

• Bolster the Conflict Prevention and Management Mechanism (CPMM) with a USD 10 million AI-driven early warning system for 60% faster conflict detection, as piloted in South Sudan.
• Convene biannual high-level forums to resolve bilateral tensions (e.g., DRC-Rwanda disputes) and strengthen joint peacekeeping deployments under African Union auspices.

4. Promoting Social Development:

• Scale the East African Health Research Commission with USD 50 million for cross-border vaccination drives, targeting a 25% reduction in communicable diseases by 2030.
• Harmonize education standards through 10,000 annual student exchanges, equipping youth with digital skills to reduce unemployment from 15% to 10%.

5. Institutional and Financial Reforms:

• Establish a Sustainable Financing Mechanism with penalties for contribution arrears, aiming to reduce shortfalls by 50% and diversify funding to 50% domestic bonds by 2026.
• Implement performance-based budgeting with annual KPI audits (e.g., trade volume growth, conflict response times) achieving 90% project utilization rates.
• Allocate 25% of development budgets to fragile states (South Sudan, DRC, Burundi) to narrow GDP per capita gaps by 15% by 2027.

Conclusion

The East African Community stands at a critical juncture in its integration journey. After 25 years of revival, the EAC has demonstrated remarkable resilience through achievements like the SCT (which increased trade by 22%) and the SGR (which cut logistics costs by 40%). However, to realize Vision 2050's federated political union, the region must urgently address the "triple threat" of political instability, infrastructure deficits, and economic disparities.

The authors emphasize that regional integration is not optional—it is destiny. With coordinated reforms, the EAC can transform shared vulnerabilities into collective strengths, positioning East Africa as a continental leader in economic cooperation and peace-building. By implementing the proposed solutions—particularly NTB elimination, infrastructure acceleration, and CPMM strengthening—the EAC could achieve:

• 30% increase in intra-regional trade by 2030
• 25% reduction in disease burden through health integration
• USD 20 billion in partnership-leveraged infrastructure financing
• 50% reduction in conflict-related economic losses

By 2031, with bold and unified action, the EAC can emerge as a politically stable, economically vibrant federation that delivers shared prosperity to over 330 million East Africans—proving that "unity through diversity" is not just a slogan, but an achievable reality.

📘 Read the Full Research Paper:
"Fostering Peace, Security, and Economic Integration in the East African Community (1999–2024): Budgetary Strategies, Challenges, and Pathways to Regional Stability"
Authored by Dr. Bravious Felix Kahyoza (PhD, FMVA)
Published by TICGL | Tanzania Investment and Consultant Group Ltd
🌐 www.ticgl.com