Tanzania’s economic performance in 2025 reflects a period of strong macroeconomic stability, export-led growth, and improving external resilience, underpinned by prudent monetary management by the Bank of Tanzania (BoT). As of 30 November 2025, the BoT’s financial position signals a notable strengthening of the country’s economic fundamentals, with total assets rising to TZS 29.67 trillion, equivalent to a 4.9% increase (about TZS 1.39 trillion) compared to October 2025. This expansion mirrors heightened foreign exchange inflows, record performance in the mining sector—particularly gold—and rising domestic economic activity, all of which have reinforced liquidity conditions and reserve buffers.
A defining feature of 2025 has been the rapid accumulation of gold and liquid assets. Total gold holdings (monetary and bullion combined) increased by 18.6% to TZS 4.67 trillion, driven by the BoT’s domestic gold purchase programme and Tanzania’s exceptional export performance. Gold export earnings reached an estimated USD 4.3–4.43 billion in the year ending September/October 2025, representing a 35–36% year-on-year increase and firmly establishing gold as the country’s leading foreign exchange earner. In parallel, cash and cash equivalents rose by 32.8% to TZS 4.45 trillion, reflecting strong inflows from exports and services such as tourism, as well as improved liquidity management. These trends have contributed to a more diversified and resilient reserve position.
These monetary and reserve developments are consistent with Tanzania’s broader macroeconomic outcomes in 2025. Real GDP growth is estimated at 6.0–6.3%, supported by mining, tourism (with arrivals rising by around 11%), agriculture, manufacturing, and large-scale infrastructure projects. Inflation remained subdued at about 3.4% in November 2025, comfortably within the BoT’s 3–5% target band, while foreign exchange reserves stood at around USD 6.17 billion (approximately 4.7 months of import cover) by end-October 2025, meeting regional adequacy benchmarks and enhancing exchange rate stability.
Looking ahead, Tanzania’s macroeconomic outlook for 2026 remains broadly positive, building on the strong foundations established in 2025. Current projections from international and domestic sources point to real GDP growth of about 6.1–6.3% in 2026, indicating stable to slightly accelerating momentum. Growth is expected to continue being driven by mining (especially gold), tourism, infrastructure investments, manufacturing, and gradual expansion in private sector credit, supported by ongoing structural reforms aimed at improving the business environment.
Inflation in 2026 is projected to remain around 3.5%, still within the BoT’s policy target range, reflecting continued prudent monetary policy, stable food supply conditions, and moderated global energy prices. Foreign exchange reserves are expected to remain adequate—above 4.5–5 months of import cover, bolstered by sustained gold and tourism receipts and steady capital inflows. Gold exports are likely to remain elevated, potentially exceeding USD 4 billion, although performance will remain sensitive to global commodity prices and production dynamics.
Overall, the 2026 trajectory suggests that Tanzania is well positioned to consolidate its macroeconomic gains, strengthen external buffers, and advance toward its medium-term development goals, including upper-middle-income status. Nonetheless, risks such as commodity price volatility, climate-related shocks, and post-election policy adjustments could influence outcomes. Maintaining fiscal discipline, deepening export diversification, and sustaining prudent monetary management will be critical to preserving stability and translating growth into inclusive and resilient economic development beyond 2026. Read More: Tanzania Economic Updates December 2025
The table below highlights selected major items (in TZS '000) with significant changes, focusing on those relevant to economic development (e.g., reserves, gold, and liquidity indicators).
| Item | 30-Nov-2025 (TZS '000) | 31-Oct-2025 (TZS '000) | Change (TZS '000) | % Change | Implications for Economy |
| Total Assets | 29,671,370,947 | 28,276,931,699 | +1,394,439,248 | +4.9% | Strong reserve accumulation and economic expansion |
| Cash and Cash Equivalents | 4,451,306,481 | 3,351,589,357 | +1,099,717,124 | +32.8% | Inflows from exports (e.g., gold, tourism) boosting liquidity |
| Monetary Gold | 1,882,335,649 | 1,503,197,004 | +379,138,645 | +25.2% | Higher gold prices and BoT domestic purchases |
| Bullion Gold | 2,790,183,836 | 2,437,344,646 | +352,839,190 | +14.5% | Reflects mining sector boom and reserve diversification |
| Total Gold Holdings (Monetary + Bullion) | 4,672,519,485 | 3,940,541,650 | +731,977,835 | +18.6% | Key driver: Record gold exports |
| Foreign Currency Marketable Securities | 8,983,322,949 | 9,941,164,333 | -957,841,384 | -9.6% | Possible reallocation to cash/gold |
| Loans and Receivables | 1,353,585,170 | 835,564,152 | +518,021,018 | +62.0% | Increased lending supporting private sector growth |
| Total Liabilities | 26,845,941,243 | 25,540,416,048 | +1,305,525,195 | +5.1% | Managed growth in deposits and currency |
| Currency in Circulation | 9,698,821,378 | 9,605,923,719 | +92,897,659 | +1.0% | Rising money supply indicating higher transactions/economic activity |
| Deposits - Others (e.g., government/private) | 3,570,569,361 | 2,708,228,714 | +862,340,647 | +31.8% | Increased savings or fiscal deposits |
| Total Equity | 2,825,429,704 | 2,736,515,651 | +88,914,053 | +3.2% | Improved central bank capital base for stability |
The most notable development is the ~18.6% increase in total gold holdings (combined monetary and bullion gold), driven by Tanzania's mining sector expansion and the BoT's policy of purchasing gold from domestic producers. This aligns with record gold export earnings of approximately USD 4.3–4.43 billion in the year ending September/October 2025, a ~35–36% surge year-on-year, fueled by high global gold prices and increased production.
Tanzania's economy in 2025 demonstrates resilient growth, low inflation, and strengthening external buffers, supported by key sectors: mining (gold-led), tourism (strong recovery in arrivals), agriculture (stable output despite weather risks), and infrastructure investments. GDP growth is driven by exports and public projects, with foreign reserves providing a buffer against external shocks.
| Indicator | Value (2025) | Notes/Source Context |
| Real GDP Growth (projected/full year) | 6.0–6.3% | IMF projection 6.0%; Q2 actual 6.3%; driven by mining, tourism (+11% arrivals), agriculture |
| Headline Inflation (November 2025) | 3.4% | Down from 3.5% in October; within BoT target (3–5%); food inflation cooled to ~6.6% |
| Foreign Exchange Reserves (end-October 2025) | ~USD 6.17 billion (4.7 months import cover) | BoT data; some reports cite ~USD 6.4 billion excluding gold in November; adequate per EAC benchmarks |
| Gold Exports (year ending ~Sep/Oct 2025) | USD 4.3–4.43 billion | Record high, +35–36% y-o-y; top export commodity |
| Key Growth Sectors | Mining (gold dominant), Tourism, Agriculture, Manufacturing | Mining and tourism leading export/FX earnings; agriculture employs ~65% of workforce |
Overall, the BoT balance sheet reinforces a positive outlook for Tanzania's economy, characterized by export-led growth, macroeconomic stability, and progressive reserve accumulation in 2025.
Tanzania's strong macroeconomic momentum in 2025 is expected to carry into 2026, with projections indicating continued resilient growth, low inflation, and strengthening external buffers. International and domestic forecasts highlight sustained performance in key sectors—particularly mining, tourism, infrastructure investments, and manufacturing—while ongoing reforms aim to enhance diversification and private sector participation. The Bank of Tanzania's prudent monetary management and reserve accumulation are likely to support exchange rate stability and resilience against global uncertainties. However, risks such as potential political transitions following the 2025 elections, commodity price volatility, and climate-related challenges could moderate the pace if not managed effectively.
The table below summarizes major forecasts from reputable sources (as of late 2025 data), compared to 2025 estimates for context.
| Indicator | Projected Value (2026) | 2025 Estimate/Actual | Change/Trend | Notes/Source Context |
| Real GDP Growth | 6.1–6.3% | 6.0–6.3% | Stable to slight acceleration | IMF: 6.3%; Tanzania government target: 6.1%; driven by fixed investments, exports, and reforms |
| Headline Inflation | ~3.5% | ~3.3–3.4% | Mild increase | Expected to stay within BoT's 3–5% target; supported by stable food/energy prices and tight policy |
| Foreign Exchange Reserves | Adequate (>4.5–5 months import cover) | ~4.7 months (end-2025 est.) | Continued improvement | Bolstered by gold/tourism exports and inflows; aligns with EAC benchmarks |
| Gold Exports | Sustained high levels (potentially >USD 4 billion) | USD 4.3–4.43 billion | Stable growth | Dependent on global prices and production; mining remains dominant |
| Key Growth Sectors | Mining (gold-led), Tourism, Infrastructure, Agriculture, Manufacturing | Similar to 2025 | Ongoing momentum | Emphasis on LNG projects, ports/railways, and private sector credit expansion; East Africa regional leader at ~5.9% average growth |
Overall, the 2026 outlook reinforces Tanzania's path toward upper-middle-income status, with export-led growth and reserve buildup (as seen in the BoT's 2025 balance sheet trends) providing a solid foundation. Successful implementation of structural reforms, climate-resilient investments, and fiscal prudence will be critical to achieving these projections and mitigating downside risks.
The Bank of Tanzania's November 2025 balance sheet paints an optimistic picture of the nation's macroeconomic health, with significant asset growth, diversified reserves (particularly in gold), and strengthened equity signaling enhanced resilience and capacity for development financing. Tanzania's 2025 performance—marked by record export earnings, low and stable inflation, private sector credit expansion, and GDP growth around 6%—has been anchored by effective central bank policies and sectoral strengths in mining and tourism, providing a buffer against external risks while fostering inclusive progress.
As the economy transitions into 2026, projections of 6.1–6.3% GDP growth, inflation remaining around 3.5%, and sustained reserve adequacy offer a compelling outlook for continued momentum. Key opportunities lie in advancing structural reforms, climate-resilient investments, and diversification efforts to mitigate risks such as commodity price fluctuations or global slowdowns. With the BoT's prudent stewardship and export-led drivers intact, Tanzania is well-positioned to build on its 2025 gains, driving sustainable development, job creation, and regional leadership in the years ahead.