The cement consumption data from 2015 to 2024 reveals a significant transformation in the cement industry, characterized by a near doubling of net consumption, a dramatic rise in domestic production, and a marked decline in reliance on imports. Over this decade, net cement consumption grew from 3,907,949 tons in 2015 to 7,705,918 tons in 2024, driven by robust domestic manufacturing and shifting trade dynamics. This analysis explores key trends in manufactured, imported, and exported cement, highlighting percentage changes and quarterly patterns to provide insights into the industry’s evolution.

Key Metrics and Observations

1. Net Cement Consumption Growth (2015–2024):
   • 2015 Total: 3,907,949 tons
   • 2024 Total: 7,705,918 tons
   • Growth: =97.17% Net cement consumption nearly doubled over the decade, increasing by 97.17%. The growth reflects rising demand, likely driven by infrastructure development or economic expansion.
2. Manufactured Cement:
   • 2015 Total: 3,140,160 tons
   • 2024 Total: 7,699,840 tons
   • Growth: =145.21% Domestic production surged by 145.21%, indicating significant investment in local manufacturing capacity. The highest annual manufactured total was in 2022 (7,598,073 tons), slightly dipping in 2023 (7,673,016 tons) and 2024 (7,699,840 tons).
   • Quarterly Trends:
     • The October–December quarter consistently shows high production, peaking in 2024 Q4 at 2,313,251 tons, a 163.38% increase from 2015 Q4 (878,298 tons).
     • July–September also shows strong growth, with 2024 Q3 (2,144,208 tons) up 145.76% from 2015 Q3 (872,397 tons).
3. Imported Cement:
   • 2015 Total: 896,872 tons
   • 2024 Total: 398,039 tons
   • Decline: −55.63% Imports dropped significantly by 55.63%, suggesting a shift toward self-reliance in cement production. The peak import year was 2015 (896,872 tons), while the lowest was 2017 (188,599 tons).
   • Quarterly Trends:
     • Imports were highest in 2015 Q1 (283,231 tons) and lowest in 2024 Q3 (32,876 tons, an 88.39% decline from 2015 Q1).
     • 2023 saw a temporary spike in imports (809,199 tons), but 2024 imports fell sharply to 398,039 tons, likely due to increased domestic capacity.
4. Exported Cement:
   • 2015 Total: 129,083 tons
   • 2024 Total: 391,961 tons
   • Growth: =203.62% Exports grew dramatically by 203.62%, reflecting improved competitiveness in international markets. The highest export year was 2023 (531,699 tons), with a slight decline in 2024.
   • Quarterly Trends:
     • July–September exports peaked in 2020 Q3 (206,892 tons), a 348.92% increase from 2015 Q3 (46,089 tons).
     • 2024 Q4 exports (119,514 tons) were up 216.88% from 2015 Q4 (37,723 tons).
5. Net Cement Consumption by Quarter:
   • January–March:
     • 2015: 946,454 tons
     • 2024: 1,688,512 tons
     • Growth: 78.40%
   • April–June:
     • 2015: 932,831 tons
     • 2024: 1,675,257 tons
     • Growth: 79.59%
   • July–September:
     • 2015: 1,038,969 tons
     • 2024: 2,064,538 tons
     • Growth: 98.73% (highest quarterly growth)
   • October–December:
     • 2015: 989,696 tons
     • 2024: 2,277,611 tons
     • Growth: 130.14% (strongest quarterly performance)
   • The October–December quarter consistently shows the highest consumption in later years, particularly in 2024 Q4 (2,277,611 tons).

Year-by-Year Analysis with Percentages

• 2015–2016:
  • Net Consumption: +10.24% (3,907,949 to 4,307,513 tons)
  • Manufactured: +28.89% (3,140,160 to 4,047,712 tons)
  • Imported: -42.76% (896,872 to 513,307 tons)
  • Exported: +96.39% (129,083 to 253,506 tons)
  • Insight: Strong growth in domestic production and exports, with a sharp decline in imports, indicates a shift toward local manufacturing.
• 2016–2017:
  • Net Consumption: +1.21% (4,307,513 to 4,359,696 tons)
  • Manufactured: +8.65% (4,047,712 to 4,397,684 tons)
  • Imported: -63.26% (513,307 to 188,599 tons)
  • Exported: -10.62% (253,506 to 226,588 tons)
  • Insight: Imports plummeted, likely due to increased domestic capacity, while exports dipped slightly.
• 2017–2018:
  • Net Consumption: +7.46% (4,359,696 to 4,685,039 tons)
  • Manufactured: +3.24% (4,397,684 to 4,540,309 tons)
  • Imported: +80.92% (188,599 to 341,179 tons)
  • Exported: -13.29% (226,588 to 196,449 tons)
  • Insight: A rebound in imports and steady consumption growth suggest demand outpacing local production growth.
• 2018–2019:
  • Net Consumption: +13.73% (4,685,039 to 5,328,850 tons)
  • Manufactured: +16.54% (4,540,309 to 5,290,878 tons)
  • Imported: +31.46% (341,179 to 448,579 tons)
  • Exported: +108.99% (196,449 to 410,607 tons)
  • Insight: Significant export growth and strong domestic production indicate market expansion.
• 2019–2020:
  • Net Consumption: +9.39% (5,328,850 to 5,828,688 tons)
  • Manufactured: +5.94% (5,290,878 to 5,605,626 tons)
  • Imported: +59.82% (448,579 to 716,929 tons)
  • Exported: +20.25% (410,607 to 493,867 tons)
  • Insight: Imports surged, possibly due to supply chain constraints or demand spikes.
• 2020–2021:
  • Net Consumption: +17.78% (5,828,688 to 6,863,004 tons)
  • Manufactured: +18.00% (5,605,626 to 6,614,359 tons)
  • Imported: -3.68% (716,929 to 690,474 tons)
  • Exported: -10.54% (493,867 to 441,828 tons)
  • Insight: Robust consumption growth driven by domestic production, with imports and exports slightly declining.
• 2021–2022:
  • Net Consumption: +13.97% (6,863,004 to 7,823,361 tons)
  • Manufactured: +14.86% (6,614,359 to 7,598,073 tons)
  • Imported: +3.81% (690,474 to 716,826 tons)
  • Exported: +11.24% (441,828 to 491,538 tons)
  • Insight: Strong domestic production and consumption growth, with stable import and export levels.
• 2022–2023:
  • Net Consumption: +1.63% (7,823,361 to 7,950,515 tons)
  • Manufactured: +0.99% (7,598,073 to 7,673,016 tons)
  • Imported: +12.87% (716,826 to 809,199 tons)
  • Exported: +8.17% (491,538 to 531,699 tons)
  • Insight: Slower consumption growth, with imports rising to meet demand.
• 2023–2024:
  • Net Consumption: -3.05% (7,950,515 to 7,705,918 tons)
  • Manufactured: +0.35% (7,673,016 to 7,699,840 tons)
  • Imported: -50.82% (809,199 to 398,039 tons)
  • Exported: -26.29% (531,699 to 391,961 tons)
  • Insight: A decline in consumption, imports, and exports suggests a possible market slowdown or overcapacity in 2024.

Key Trends and Insights

1. Domestic Production Dominance:
   • The share of manufactured cement in net consumption grew from 80.36% in 2015 (3,140,160 ÷ 3,907,949) to 99.92% in 2024 (7,699,840 ÷ 7,705,918). This reflects a strong shift toward self-sufficiency.
2. Declining Reliance on Imports:
   • Imports as a percentage of net consumption dropped from 22.95% in 2015 (896,872 ÷ 3,907,949) to 5.16% in 2024 (398,039 ÷ 7,705,918). The sharp decline in 2024 imports indicates robust local supply.
3. Export Growth:
   • Exports as a percentage of manufactured cement rose from 4.11% in 2015 (129,083 ÷ 3,140,160) to 5.09% in 2024 (391,961 ÷ 7,699,840), peaking at 6.93% in 2023 (531,699 ÷ 7,673,016).
4. Seasonal Patterns:
   • The July–September and October–December quarters consistently show higher consumption, likely tied to construction cycles. For example, 2024 Q4 (2,277,611 tons) was the highest quarterly consumption in the dataset.
5. 2024 Slowdown:
   • The 3.05% decline in net consumption from 2023 to 2024, coupled with a 50.82% drop in imports and 26.29% drop in exports, suggests a potential market correction or reduced demand.

Conclusion

The cement consumption data from 2015 to 2024 shows a robust increase in domestic production (+145.21%) and exports (+203.62%), with a significant reduction in import reliance (-55.63%). Net consumption grew by 97.17%, driven by infrastructure demand, with the strongest growth in October–December quarters. However, 2024 indicates a potential slowdown, with declines in consumption, imports, and exports. This could reflect market saturation, economic shifts, or reduced construction activity, warranting further investigation into external factors like economic policies or global trade dynamics.

Explanation of Key Figures

• Manufactured: Grew by 145.21% from 3,140,160 tons in 2015 to 7,699,840 tons in 2024, reflecting significant expansion in domestic production capacity.
• Imported: Declined by 55.63% from 896,872 tons in 2015 to 398,039 tons in 2024, indicating reduced reliance on imports.
• Exported: Increased by 203.62% from 129,083 tons in 2015 to 391,961 tons in 2024, with a peak in 2023 (531,699 tons).
• Net Consumption: Rose by 97.17% from 3,907,949 tons in 2015 to 7,705,918 tons in 2024, with the highest quarterly peak in 2024 Q4 (2,277,611 tons).
• Peak Quarter: The October–December quarter frequently shows the highest consumption, with 2024 Q4 being the highest in the dataset, up 130.14% from 2015 Q4 (989,696 tons).