Tanzania Economic Update: Inflation, Monetary Policy & Trade – May 2026 | TICGL
TICGL Economic Intelligence — May 2026
Tanzania Economic Update: Inflation, Monetary Policy & Trade
A data-driven analysis of Tanzania's macroeconomic performance drawing on the Bank of Tanzania Monthly Economic Review (May 2026) and the NBS National Consumer Price Index (December 2025). Headline inflation accelerated to 4.0% in April 2026, credit growth remained robust at 23.6%, and gold exports surged to a record USD 5.4 billion.
✍️ Amran Bhuzohera, TICGL Research
📅 Published: June 9, 2026
📊 Sources: BOT, NBS
🇹🇿 Tanzania Mainland & Zanzibar
4.0%
Headline Inflation
Apr 2026 (was 3.2%)
3.1%
Core Inflation
Apr 2026 (was 2.2%)
5.75%
Central Bank Rate
Q2 2026 (held)
23.6%
Private Credit Growth
Year to Apr 2026
2,612
TZS / USD
Avg Apr 2026 (+2.7% YoY)
USD 5.7bn
Forex Reserves
4.4 months of imports
USD 5.4bn
Gold Exports (YTD)
Year to Apr 2026
6.0%
Real GDP Growth
2025 (constant prices)
Section 01
Inflation Trends — Tanzania Mainland
Headline annual inflation accelerated to 4.0% in April 2026, up from 3.2% in March 2026 and 3.2% in April 2025. The primary driver was a sharp rise in transport costs (+9.2% annually) reflecting fuel price pass-through from geopolitical pressures in the Middle East. Core inflation also rose meaningfully to 3.1% from 2.2%, signalling broadening price pressures beyond volatile components.
🔴 Key Alert
Transport Inflation Spiked to 9.2%
Transport inflation surged to 9.2% year-on-year in April 2026, driven by crude oil prices rising from USD 95.58/barrel in March to USD 103.91/barrel average in April, with a monthly peak of USD 117.80.
⚠️ Watch
Food Inflation Elevated at 5.7%
Annual food inflation reached 5.7% in April 2026 (vs. 5.5% in March). Rising prices of wheat, rice, and maize were the primary contributors. Expected to moderate after May 2026 harvest season begins.
✅ Positive
Within All Policy Benchmarks
Despite the acceleration, headline inflation remains below the national upper bound and within SADC and EAC regional benchmarks. Domestic food reserves by NFRA (500,962 tonnes) provide a buffer.
Headline Inflation Monthly Trend (2024–2026)
Annual percentage change, Base 2020=100
Inflation Components — April 2026
Annual % change by category
Headline vs Core vs Food vs Energy Inflation (Apr 2023 – Apr 2026)
12-month percentage change
Inflation by Main Category — April 2026
Main Group
Weight (%)
MoM Apr-25 (%)
MoM Mar-26 (%)
MoM Apr-26 (%)
Annual Apr-25 (%)
Annual Mar-26 (%)
Annual Apr-26 (%)
Direction
Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages
28.2
0.7
1.8
0.9
5.3
5.5
5.7
↑ Up
Alcoholic Beverages & Tobacco
1.9
0.1
0.1
0.3
3.4
2.1
2.3
↑ Up
Clothing & Footwear
10.8
0.0
0.5
0.3
2.0
1.3
1.6
↑ Up
Housing, Water, Electricity & Gas
15.1
0.8
0.7
0.9
3.8
1.6
1.7
↑ Up
Furnishings & Household Equipment
7.9
0.2
0.1
0.4
2.3
2.3
2.6
↑ Up
Health
2.5
0.2
0.4
0.6
1.5
1.1
1.6
↑ Up
Transport
14.1
0.4
0.5
5.2
2.1
4.2
9.2
🔴 Spike
Information & Communication
5.4
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
1.0
1.0
→ Stable
Recreation, Sports & Culture
1.6
0.1
0.1
0.3
1.7
0.6
0.7
→ Low
Education Services
2.0
0.0
0.6
1.6
4.1
0.9
2.6
↑ Up
Restaurants & Accommodation
6.6
0.3
0.4
0.1
1.6
2.1
1.8
↓ Eased
Insurance & Financial Services
2.1
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.8
0.3
0.1
↓ Low
Personal Care & Miscellaneous
2.1
0.1
0.3
0.2
3.0
3.3
3.5
↑ Rising
ALL ITEMS (Headline)
100.0
0.4
0.8
1.3
3.2
3.2
4.0
↑ Up
📌 Analyst Note: Fuel Price Pass-Through is the Dominant Driver
The sharp jump in headline inflation from 3.2% to 4.0% in a single month is primarily a supply shock from global energy markets. With crude oil (Brent) hitting USD 120.42/barrel in April 2026, domestic pump prices surged, transmitting directly to transport (+5.2% month-on-month) and indirectly to food through higher logistics costs. Government fuel subsidies are expected to provide partial relief. Monitoring the geopolitical situation in the Middle East is critical for Tanzania's near-term inflation outlook.
Section 02
NCPI December 2025 — Annual Review
Tanzania's annual headline inflation for 2025 averaged 3.3%, modestly above the 3.1% recorded in 2024. The full year was characterised by stable but gradually rising price pressures, with food inflation surging to 6.4% while non-food and core inflation actually declined. December 2025 headline inflation closed at 3.6%.
NCPI Index Level — Dec 2024 to Dec 2025
CPI Index, Base 2020=100
Annual Average Inflation 2024 vs 2025
Comparison across major groups
NCPI December 2025 — All Groups
Main Group
Weight
Dec 2024
Nov 2025
Dec 2025
1-Month Change
12-Month Change
Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages
28.2
124.27
129.98
132.56
2.0%
6.7%
Alcoholic Beverages & Tobacco
1.9
110.33
113.67
114.08
0.4%
3.4%
Clothing & Footwear
10.8
113.17
115.26
115.46
0.2%
2.0%
Housing, Water, Electricity & Gas
15.1
115.59
117.70
118.27
0.5%
2.3%
Furnishings & Household Equipment
7.9
114.38
117.61
117.81
0.2%
3.0%
Health
2.5
108.43
109.70
109.79
0.1%
1.3%
Transport
14.1
118.37
121.50
123.19
1.4%
4.1%
Information & Communication
5.4
106.16
106.49
106.70
0.2%
0.5%
Recreation, Sport & Culture
1.6
110.54
110.89
110.82
-0.1%
0.3%
Education Services
2.0
108.84
112.01
112.01
0.0%
2.9%
Restaurants & Accommodation
6.6
116.39
117.49
117.48
0.0%
0.9%
Insurance & Financial Services
2.1
101.92
102.27
102.34
0.1%
0.4%
Personal Care & Miscellaneous
2.1
116.64
118.40
118.09
-0.3%
1.2%
ALL ITEMS INDEX
100.0
116.87
120.01
121.11
0.9%
3.6%
Selected Supplementary Indices
Core Index
73.9
114.45
116.77
117.26
0.4%
2.5%
Non-Core Index
26.1
123.73
129.21
132.04
2.2%
6.7%
Energy, Fuel & Utilities Index
5.7
125.25
129.33
131.02
1.3%
4.6%
Services Index
37.2
111.81
113.49
114.03
0.5%
2.0%
Goods Index
62.8
119.86
123.87
125.31
1.2%
4.5%
Section 03
Monetary Policy & Money Supply
The Bank of Tanzania's Monetary Policy Committee held the Central Bank Rate (CBR) at 5.75% for Q2 2026. The MPC also narrowed the CBR corridor from 200 to 150 basis points to strengthen monetary policy transmission. Extended broad money supply (M3) grew 22% year-on-year in April 2026, driven primarily by strong private sector credit growth.
🏦 Policy Rate
CBR Held at 5.75%
The MPC balanced inflation risks against growth objectives. The corridor was narrowed to 150 bps (from 200 bps) to improve policy transmission efficiency amid geopolitical uncertainty.
💰 Money Supply
M3 Grew 22.0% Year-on-Year
Total M3 reached TZS 65.1 trillion in April 2026. Growth was primarily driven by private sector credit expansion (+23.6%) and strong transferable deposits (+35.6% YoY).
🏪 Private Credit
Broad-Based Credit Growth
Credit to private sector grew 23.6% to TZS 47.9 trillion. Trade led sectoral growth at 44.2%, followed by mining & quarrying (39.7%) and transport & communication (39.7%).
Money Supply Growth (M1, M2, M3)
Annual % change, Apr 2025 – Apr 2026
Credit to Private Sector by Sector — Apr 2026
Share of total outstanding credit (%)
Annual Growth of Credit to Select Economic Activities (%)
Sector
Apr-25
Jun-25
Sep-25
Jan-26
Feb-26
Mar-26
Apr-26
Trend (Annual %)
Trade
14.4
21.3
24.8
50.0
48.7
43.3
44.2
44.2%
Transport & Communication
23.8
25.7
17.4
34.2
39.4
39.5
39.7
39.7%
Mining & Quarrying
-10.5
20.8
32.4
91.4
103.9
78.4
39.7
39.7%
Agriculture
29.8
30.2
27.6
27.9
31.9
28.5
30.5
30.5%
Building & Construction
39.2
25.7
15.7
29.5
28.1
21.8
20.6
20.6%
Personal Loans (MSMEs)
14.7
13.7
14.7
17.8
18.9
20.7
17.7
17.7%
Hotels & Restaurants
7.0
22.5
16.3
1.6
5.2
4.4
6.0
6.0%
Manufacturing
7.7
2.5
0.1
-7.7
-8.5
-4.9
4.2
4.2%
Section 04
Interest Rates
Interest rates remained broadly stable in April 2026, with modest upward adjustments in lending and deposit rates. The overall lending rate rose marginally to 15.33% while the spread between one-year lending and deposit rates narrowed to 5.50 percentage points.
Key Interest Rates — Apr 2025 to Apr 2026
Percentage per annum
Treasury Bills & Bond Yields — April 2026
Weighted average yield by maturity (%)
Rate Type
Apr-25
Dec-25
Jan-26
Feb-26
Mar-26
Apr-26
Change
Savings Deposit Rate
2.89
3.02
2.94
2.98
2.89
2.91
→
Overall Lending Rate
15.16
15.24
15.10
15.11
15.11
15.33
↑
Short-Term Lending Rate (≤1yr)
16.15
15.46
15.49
15.41
15.45
15.31
↓
Negotiated Lending Rate
12.88
12.38
12.25
12.19
12.21
12.56
↑
Overall Time Deposit Rate
7.82
8.36
8.33
8.32
8.33
8.54
↑
12-Month Deposit Rate
9.27
9.58
9.70
9.82
9.60
9.81
↑
Negotiated Deposit Rate
10.52
11.66
11.74
11.48
11.57
11.37
↓
Short-Term Interest Spread
6.88
5.88
5.79
5.59
5.85
5.50
↓ Narrowing
Section 05
Financial Markets & Exchange Rate
Government securities markets remained active with strong investor demand. Treasury bill auctions were oversubscribed with bids of TZS 859.5 billion against a TZS 429.8 billion tender. The Tanzanian Shilling strengthened, appreciating 2.7% year-on-year to an average of TZS 2,612.46 per USD in April 2026.
💱 Exchange Rate
Shilling Appreciated 2.7% YoY
TZS traded at an average of 2,612.46 per USD in April 2026 vs. 2,684.41 in April 2025. Strong gold export inflows and Bank of Tanzania interventions (USD 15.3m sold) supported orderly market conditions.
📋 T-Bills
Oversubscribed by 2x
Two Treasury bill auctions attracted TZS 859.5 billion in bids; TZS 450.4 billion was accepted. Weighted average yield declined to 5.06% from 5.21% in March 2026, reflecting strong investor appetite.
🏦 T-Bonds
5yr at 9.54%, 10yr at 9.40%
Both 5-year and 10-year bond auctions were oversubscribed, with total bids of TZS 408.3 billion. Declining yields reflect sustained demand for long-term government securities.
TZS/USD Exchange Rate Trend
Monthly average, Apr 2025 – Apr 2026
Treasury Bills Weighted Average Yield
Overall WAY (%), Apr 2025 – Apr 2026
Section 06
Government Budget Operations
Revenue collection remained strong in March 2026, with the Government collecting TZS 3,836.9 billion — 8.5% above the monthly target. Income tax led performance, exceeding its target by 17.2%. Total expenditure reached TZS 4,273.4 billion, with TZS 1,728.1 billion directed toward development projects.
Central Government Revenue — March 2026
TZS Billions — Actual vs. Target vs. 2025
Central Government Expenditure — March 2026
TZS Billions by category
Item
Budget 2025/26
Jul–Mar Estimate
Jul–Mar Actual
March Estimate
March Actual
Total Revenue (incl. LGAs)
40,466,131
29,776,224
31,406,077
3,534,728
3,836,870
Tax Revenue
32,176,000
23,799,789
26,037,562
2,994,936
3,317,522
→ Taxes on Imports
11,562,966
8,698,522
9,210,997
941,106
1,093,168
→ Income Taxes
11,367,877
8,371,958
10,313,985
1,320,902
1,547,795
→ VAT & Excise (Local)
7,016,471
4,980,549
4,809,820
538,795
494,551
Non-Tax Revenue
4,681,734
4,699,745
4,145,266
392,430
385,755
Expenditure (TZS Millions)
Total Expenditure
48,774,989
36,263,699
35,334,852
4,190,993
4,273,412
→ Wages & Salaries
10,917,467
9,789,839
9,842,550
1,108,942
1,128,371
→ Interest Payments
6,493,715
4,986,600
4,149,292
636,797
379,055
→ Development Expenditure
17,493,733
13,360,470
12,406,364
1,606,289
1,728,072
Overall Balance (after grants)
-6,401,158
-5,779,536
-3,216,702
-586,082
-244,075
All figures in TZS Millions unless otherwise stated. Sources: Ministry of Finance, BOT. Note: Actual figures for 2026 are provisional.
Section 07
Debt Developments
Tanzania's total national debt stood at USD 51,067.2 million at end-April 2026, a 0.5% increase from March 2026. External debt (70.4% of total) was USD 35,949.6 million, dominated by multilateral creditors. Domestic debt reached TZS 39,335.8 billion, driven by increased overdraft utilisation.
External Debt by Creditor — April 2026
USD Millions, share of total
External Debt by Currency Composition
Percentage share, April 2026
Use of Funds
Apr-25 (%)
Mar-26 (%)
Apr-26 (%)
Transport & Telecommunication
21.5
22.3
22.4
Balance of Payments & Budget Support
20.7
22.3
22.3
Social Welfare & Education
20.2
19.2
19.3
Energy & Mining
12.9
12.0
12.0
Real Estate & Construction
4.8
5.1
5.1
Finance & Insurance
4.2
3.6
3.6
Agriculture
5.0
5.3
5.3
Industries
3.5
3.7
3.7
Tourism
1.8
1.8
1.8
Other
5.5
4.8
4.5
Total
100.0
100.0
100.0
Section 08
External Sector Performance & Trade
Tanzania's exports grew 13.5% to USD 18,876.7 million in the year ending April 2026, driven by record gold exports and tourism receipts. The current account deficit widened to USD 2,651.8 million as robust import growth in capital goods outpaced export gains. Foreign exchange reserves remained comfortable at USD 5,722.5 million (4.4 months of imports).
🥇 Gold Exports
Gold Hit USD 5.4bn — Record High
Gold exports surged to USD 5,268.9 million in the year ending April 2026, up from USD 3,821.2 million, supported by sustained high global prices and increased production volumes.
✈️ Tourism
Arrivals Rose to 2.28 Million
International arrivals grew to 2,281,340 (from 2,162,487). Travel receipts reached USD 4,385.3 million (+9.5%), accounting for 57% of total service receipts of USD 7,661.7 million.
⚠️ Current Account
Deficit Widened to USD 2.65bn
Imports grew 15.5% to USD 19,944.6 million, driven by industrial supplies (+18%), capital goods (+41%), and transport equipment (+54%). The deficit widening reflects Tanzania's investment-driven growth phase.
Top Exports — Year Ending April 2026 vs 2025
USD Millions
Top Imports — Year Ending April 2026 vs 2025
USD Millions
Gross Foreign Exchange Reserves
USD Millions with months of import cover — historical trend
Current Account Summary (USD Millions)
Item
Apr-25
Mar-26
Apr-26
Year 2024
Year 2025
Year 2026p
Chg %
Goods Account (net)
-461.1
-596.6
-963.3
-5,979.9
-4,553.6
-5,353.5
17.6%
→ Exports of Goods
649.9
815.0
788.0
7,815.8
9,682.7
11,215.0
+15.8%
→ Imports of Goods
1,111.0
1,411.6
1,751.3
13,795.7
14,236.3
16,568.5
+16.4%
Services Account (net)
218.6
266.0
237.3
4,151.4
3,908.0
4,285.6
+9.7%
→ Receipts (Travel/Tourism)
493.8
551.9
525.8
6,466.0
6,942.3
7,661.7
+10.4%
Primary Income (net)
-223.7
-135.0
-132.6
-1,608.4
-1,998.4
-1,852.0
-7.3%
Secondary Income (net)
28.9
21.2
20.2
667.8
531.9
268.1
-49.6%
Current Account Balance
-437.3
-444.4
-838.4
-2,769.1
-2,112.1
-2,651.8
+25.6%
Key Export Commodities (USD Millions — Year to April)
Commodity
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026p
YoY Change
🥇 Gold
2,696.1
2,852.4
3,133.3
3,821.2
5,268.9
+37.9%
✈️ Travel (Tourism)
2,527.8
3,373.8
3,903.1
4,006.3
4,385.3
+9.5%
🚢 Transportation
1,872.0
2,333.4
2,353.4
2,419.3
2,834.8
+17.2%
🏭 Manufactured Goods
1,250.0
1,417.4
1,359.6
1,389.9
1,897.2
+36.5%
🚬 Tobacco
147.5
178.2
409.6
490.8
600.0
+22.2%
🌰 Cashewnuts
226.9
206.4
541.7
398.8
517.4
+29.7%
☕ Coffee
165.1
186.7
224.7
334.3
420.0
+25.6%
TOTAL EXPORTS
7,079.7
7,433.8
8,237.3
9,715.6
11,412.2
+17.5%
Section 09
Economic Performance in Zanzibar
Zanzibar's headline inflation rose to 5.0% in April 2026, driven primarily by food prices (+9.9%) and rising transport costs. The current account improved 18.5% to a surplus of USD 842 million, supported by strong tourism receipts. Tourist arrivals grew 21.7% to 944,056 visitors.
Zanzibar Annual Inflation Trend
Headline, Food, Non-food (%), Apr 2025 – Apr 2026
Zanzibar Government Revenue vs. Target — April 2026
TZS Billions by tax category
Main Group
Weight
MoM Apr-25
MoM Mar-26
MoM Apr-26
Annual Apr-25
Annual Mar-26
Annual Apr-26
Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages
41.9
0.0
0.7
1.6
4.7
9.9
9.9
Clothing & Footwear
6.3
1.7
0.2
-0.2
3.9
1.6
1.5
Housing, Water, Electricity & Gas
25.8
0.0
-0.2
0.8
5.5
-0.4
-0.4
Transport
9.1
0.5
-0.1
1.8
2.2
1.7
2.7
Education
1.6
0.0
-0.3
0.0
2.6
1.6
1.5
ALL ITEMS (Headline)
100.0
0.2
0.3
1.1
4.3
4.9
5.0
Section 10
Global Economic Context
The global economy entered Q2 2026 with resilience but mounting risks. The IMF revised global growth down to 3.1% for 2026 (from 3.3% in January), while the World Bank forecasts just 2.5%. Crude oil surged to USD 103.91/barrel average in April 2026 (peak: USD 117.80), transmitting inflationary pressures to commodity-importing economies like Tanzania.
World Commodity Prices — Monthly Trend
Crude Oil (USD/barrel) & Gold (USD/troy oz)
World Commodity Prices — Agricultural
Selected commodities, monthly
Month
Crude Oil Avg (USD/bbl)
Crude Brent (USD/bbl)
Gold (USD/troy oz)
DAP Fertilizer (USD/t)
Urea (USD/t)
Palm Oil (USD/kg)
Apr-25
65.91
67.75
3,217.64
635.00
386.88
994.37
Jun-25
69.15
71.45
3,352.66
715.38
420.50
935.39
Sep-25
66.46
67.95
3,667.68
780.63
461.13
1,036.74
Dec-25
60.88
62.72
4,309.23
627.50
392.50
980.12
Jan-26
63.65
66.77
4,752.75
619.20
415.40
1,004.66
Feb-26
68.01
71.11
5,019.97
626.50
472.00
1,039.47
Mar-26
95.58
103.69
4,855.54
658.25
725.63
1,108.61
Apr-26
103.91
120.42
4,721.42
725.25
856.88
1,148.04
Section 11
Economic Outlook & Key Risks
Tanzania's economic fundamentals remain broadly sound, supported by strong export performance, robust credit growth, and a resilient shilling. However, the sudden acceleration in inflation due to global energy shocks poses near-term challenges for households and businesses.
✅ Supportive Factor
Harvest Season (May–Aug 2026)
The upcoming harvest season in most mainland Tanzania regions from May 2026 is expected to ease food inflation, which accounted for a significant portion of the inflation uptick. NFRA's 500,962-tonne stock also provides a buffer.
✅ Supportive Factor
Government Subsidies on Fuel & Fertilizer
Active government intervention through fuel and fertilizer subsidies is expected to partially cushion the pass-through of global oil price increases to domestic consumers and agricultural producers.
⚠️ Near-Term Risk
Middle East Geopolitical Tensions
Ongoing conflicts have pushed crude oil to a monthly average of USD 103.91/barrel with peaks at USD 117.80. Sustained high energy prices could push Tanzania's headline inflation above its national upper bound.
⚠️ Near-Term Risk
Widening Current Account Deficit
The current account deficit widened 25.6% to USD 2,651.8 million. While partly reflecting investment-driven import growth, sustained import expansion without matching export growth could pressure the exchange rate.
📈 Growth Driver
Gold Exports at Record Levels
Gold exports grew 37.9% to USD 5,268.9 million in the year to April 2026. High global prices (averaging USD 4,721/troy oz in April 2026) combined with rising output volumes should sustain this trend.
📈 Growth Driver
Tourism Recovery Accelerating
International arrivals grew to 2,281,340 visitors. Travel receipts at USD 4,385.3 million (+9.5%) represent Tanzania's second-largest export earner and a key driver of services sector growth.
🔭 TICGL Forward Assessment
Tanzania is navigating a complex external shock environment while domestic fundamentals hold firm. The CBR is appropriately held at 5.75%, and the corridor narrowing signals a more hawkish posture if energy-driven inflation persists. The key watchpoints for the remainder of 2026 are: (1) global oil price trajectory as Middle East tensions evolve, (2) the size of the 2026 harvest and its impact on food prices, (3) the pace of private sector credit growth and its distributional effects, and (4) the currency stability maintained through gold export receipts. Tanzania's GDP growth trajectory at 6.0% (2025 constant prices) remains a regional standout and a compelling case for investment.
AB
Amran Bhuzohera
Senior Economic Analyst — TICGL Research Division
Amran Bhuzohera is a Senior Economic Analyst at the Tanzania Investment and Consultant Group Ltd (TICGL), specialising in macroeconomic analysis, monetary policy, and investment intelligence for Tanzania and East Africa. With expertise in interpreting data from the Bank of Tanzania, the National Bureau of Statistics, and international financial institutions, Amran provides strategic insights that help investors, policymakers, and researchers navigate Tanzania's dynamic economic landscape. He is a contributor to TICGL's Tanzania Business Intelligence Dashboard and the TICGL Economic Research series.
Data Sources: Bank of Tanzania, Monthly Economic Review — May 2026 | National Bureau of Statistics, National Consumer Price Index (NCPI) — December 2025 Press Release | Ministry of Finance and Planning, Tanzania | Tanzania Revenue Authority | IMF World Economic Outlook, April 2026 | World Bank Commodity Markets | National Food Reserve Agency (NFRA). All data is official government and central bank data. Provisional 2026 data marked with (p). Analysis and commentary represent the views of TICGL Research.
Tanzania Government Domestic Debt by Creditor Category 2025–2026 | TICGL Economic Intelligence
TICGL Economic Intelligence · Tanzania Fiscal Analysis
Tanzania Government Domestic Debt by Creditor Category — 2025 to April 2026
Tanzania's government domestic debt reached TZS 39.3 trillion in April 2026 — a 13.2% increase from April 2025. Who holds this debt? How is it distributed across commercial banks, the Bank of Tanzania, pension funds, insurance companies, and other creditors? And what are the fiscal, monetary and systemic implications of each creditor group's exposure?
Total Domestic Debt: TZS 39.3 TrillionYoY Growth: +13.2%Source: BOT Monthly Economic Review May 2026Reference: April 2026
Commercial Banks
Bank of Tanzania
Pension Funds
Insurance Companies
BOT Special Funds
Others (incl. public institutions, private cos., individuals, non-residents)
TZS 39.3T
Total Domestic Debt
April 2026
+13.2%
YoY Growth
Apr 2025 → Apr 2026
28.1%
Commercial Banks
TZS 11.05T — largest creditor
26.5%
Pension Funds
TZS 10.43T — 2nd largest
19.6%
Bank of Tanzania
TZS 7.71T
5.1%
Insurance
TZS 2.01T
2.0%
BOT Special Funds
TZS 0.80T
18.7%
Others
TZS 7.34T
SECTION 01
Six Creditor Groups — Who Holds Tanzania's Domestic Debt?
Tanzania's TZS 39.3 trillion domestic debt stock is distributed across six distinct creditor categories, each with different risk appetites, mandates, and systemic implications. The dominance of domestic institutional investors (banks and pension funds) is both a sign of a deepening financial market and a source of concentration risk.
🏦
Commercial Banks
28.1%
TZS 11,052.2 billion (April 2026)
↑ +10.0% YoY from TZS 10,049.9B
Commercial banks hold government securities primarily as liquid, risk-free assets meeting capital and liquidity requirements. Largest single creditor group by absolute amount.
🏛️
Bank of Tanzania (BOT)
19.6%
TZS 7,706.3 billion (April 2026)
↑ +8.2% YoY from TZS 7,119.2B
BOT holds government debt through Open Market Operations, reverse repo collateral, and direct overdraft facilities to government. BOT holdings represent monetary financing risk.
👴
Pension Funds
26.5%
TZS 10,426.4 billion (April 2026)
↑ +13.7% YoY from TZS 9,171.1B
Pension funds (NSSF, PPF, GEPF, etc.) are mandated to invest in government securities. Their long-duration liability profile makes them natural holders of government bonds. Second largest group.
🛡️
Insurance Companies
5.1%
TZS 2,012.5 billion (April 2026)
↑ +8.3% YoY from TZS 1,858.4B
Insurance firms invest premium reserves in government securities per regulatory requirements. Steady, modest growth reflecting gradual insurance sector deepening in Tanzania.
💎
BOT Special Funds
2.0%
TZS 798.4 billion (April 2026)
↑ +41.4% YoY from TZS 564.5B
Specialised investment pools managed by BOT including heritage and development funds. Fastest growing creditor category in percentage terms (+41.4% YoY), though smallest by absolute amount.
🌐
Others
18.7%
TZS 7,339.8 billion (April 2026)
↑ +22.4% YoY from TZS 5,996.8B
Includes public institutions, private companies, non-resident investors, and individuals. This group recorded the highest absolute growth, suggesting broadening investor base or rising non-resident participation.
+8.3% YoY | Regulatory capital reserve investments
💎 BOT Special FundsTZS 798.4B 2.0%
+41.4% YoY | Fastest percentage growth — smallest by amount
SECTION 02
Creditor Share Composition — April 2025 vs April 2026
Comparing the creditor composition between April 2025 and April 2026 reveals a shift: pension funds and the "Others" category have grown their share while commercial banks have slightly declined, reflecting broadening of Tanzania's domestic investor base.
Creditor Composition — April 2025 (TZS 34,759.9B)
Creditor Composition — April 2026 (TZS 39,335.8B)
Share Change by Creditor — April 2025 vs April 2026 (percentage points)
Shift in creditor landscape: The "Others" category recorded the largest share increase (+0.9pp), followed by Pension Funds (+0.4pp) and BOT Special Funds (+0.4pp). Commercial Banks' share declined 0.8pp — not because they hold less, but because other creditors grew faster. This reflects a gradual diversification of Tanzania's domestic creditor base.
SECTION 03
Growth Trends — Each Creditor Category Over Time
Tracking each creditor's absolute holdings (TZS billions) across April 2025, March 2026, and April 2026 reveals which groups are expanding exposure to government debt fastest — and which are consolidating. BOT special funds lead in growth rate while commercial banks lead in absolute volume.
Domestic Debt by Creditor — Absolute Holdings (TZS Billions): April 2025, March 2026, April 2026
YoY Growth Rate by Creditor (Apr 2025 → Apr 2026)
BOT Special Funds: Despite being the smallest creditor group, they recorded the fastest YoY growth at +41.4%. "Others" grew +22.4%, and Pension Funds grew +13.7%. Together these three groups account for the majority of the debt stock expansion.
Absolute Increase (TZS Billions) — Apr 2025 to Apr 2026
Absolute leaders: "Others" added TZS 1,343B (+22.4%), Pension Funds added TZS 1,255.3B (+13.7%), and Commercial Banks added TZS 1,002.3B (+10.0%). In absolute terms, these three groups drove the bulk of Tanzania's domestic debt expansion.
Commercial Banks — Holdings (TZS B)
Bank of Tanzania — Holdings (TZS B)
Pension Funds — Holdings (TZS B)
Insurance Companies — Holdings (TZS B)
BOT Special Funds — Holdings (TZS B)
Others — Holdings (TZS B)
SECTION 04
Debt Instruments — What Form Does the Domestic Debt Take?
Understanding which instruments make up Tanzania's domestic debt is as important as knowing who holds them. Government bonds dominate (80.8% of the total), with overdraft/non-securitised debt rising to 15.0%. Treasury bills have declined sharply, signalling a deliberate shift toward longer-duration, lower-rollover-risk financing.
Domestic Debt by Instrument — April 2026 (TZS Billions)
Instrument Composition Change — April 2025 vs April 2026
Key Debt Instruments — April 2025 vs March 2026 vs April 2026 (TZS Billions)
Overdraft concern: The government's overdraft at BOT surged from TZS 5,159.1B (April 2025) to TZS 5,897.6B (April 2026) — a TZS 738.5B (+14.3%) increase. Overdraft represents the most expensive and least transparent form of monetary financing, signalling short-term cash-flow pressures in the budget execution cycle.
SECTION 05
Month-by-Month Domestic Debt Stock — April 2025 to April 2026
The total domestic debt stock trajectory from April 2025 through April 2026, showing the pace and seasonality of government domestic borrowing. The steady upward trend reflects consistent budget financing needs, with the March 2026 acceleration driven by large bond issuances.
Total Domestic Debt Stock — Monthly (TZS Billions), April 2025 – April 2026
Trend: Domestic debt grew from TZS 34,759.9B (April 2025) to TZS 39,335.8B (April 2026), adding TZS 4,575.9B over 12 months. The growth was not linear — a pronounced acceleration occurred in August–October 2025 (coinciding with large T-Bond auctions and overdraft utilisation) and again in March–April 2026.
Government Securities vs Non-Securitised Debt — Monthly (TZS Billions)
Monthly Debt Issuance — T-Bills vs T-Bonds (TZS Billions)
Bonds dominate: In April 2026, the government raised TZS 392.3B — TZS 245.1B in bonds vs TZS 147.2B in T-bills. Consistent bond-heavy issuance reflects a deliberate strategy to extend the maturity profile of domestic debt and reduce rollover risk.
SECTION 06
Crowding-Out Analysis — Does Government Borrowing Displace Private Credit?
One of the most important fiscal policy questions: does the government's domestic borrowing programme crowd out credit to the private sector? The evidence from Tanzania's 2025–2026 data presents a nuanced picture — private sector credit is growing strongly (23.6% YoY), but T-bill yields have declined sharply, suggesting crowding-out is not yet a dominant concern.
Private Sector Credit Growth vs Government Domestic Debt Growth (% YoY) — Selected Periods
No crowding-out evidence in 2026: Private sector credit grew 23.6% YoY in April 2026, compared to domestic debt growing 13.2%. The spread of private credit growth over government debt growth has widened. T-bill yields declining from 8.86% (April 2025) to 5.06% (April 2026) further indicates the market is comfortably absorbing both demands. However, the sustained 13%+ domestic debt growth warrants monitoring.
Commercial Bank Asset Allocation — Government Securities vs Private Credit Share (%)
Banks' choice: Commercial banks hold 28.1% of domestic debt (TZS 11.05T) while also growing private credit by 23.6%. The government securities portfolio (TZS 10.66T held as securities) represents about 22% of total banking system domestic claims — a meaningful but not dominant position.
Treasury Bill Yields — Declining as Demand Outpaces Supply (%)
Oversubscribed auctions: T-Bill auctions in April 2026 attracted TZS 859.5B in bids against a TZS 429.8B tender — 2x oversubscribed. This forced yields down to 5.06% (overall T-bill rate), indicating strong demand for government paper and no crowding-out pressure.
SECTION 07
Systemic Risks by Creditor Category
Each creditor group's large exposure to government securities creates distinct systemic risks. For the banking sector, it creates sovereign-bank nexus risk. For pension funds, it concentrates pensioners' savings in a single sovereign issuer. For BOT, it blurs monetary and fiscal policy boundaries.
Commercial Banks · 28.1%
Sovereign-Bank Nexus Risk
Banks holding large amounts of government debt create a two-way risk channel: fiscal stress would impair bank balance sheets, potentially triggering a financial sector crisis. Tanzania's banks hold ~22% of assets in government securities.
Risk level: Medium — mitigated by adequate capital buffers and declining T-bill yields
Bank of Tanzania · 19.6%
Monetary Financing & Overdraft Risk
BOT holding TZS 7.7T including TZS 5.9T in overdraft (non-securitised) represents direct monetary financing of the budget deficit — a practice that, if excessive, can undermine the CBR inflation targeting framework and erode central bank independence.
Risk level: Medium-High — overdraft growing faster than securitised debt
Pension Funds · 26.5%
Pensioner Asset Concentration Risk
Tanzania's pension funds holding 26.5% of domestic debt concentrates pensioners' long-term savings in a single sovereign issuer. While government bonds are theoretically risk-free in local currency, fiscal dominance or inflation can erode real returns. Limited alternative investment options drive this concentration.
Risk level: Medium — pension funds need diversification into infrastructure and equities
Insurance Companies · 5.1%
Insurance Sector Liquidity Risk
Insurance companies' heavy reliance on government bonds for reserve investment creates duration mismatch risk if claim payments accelerate (e.g. catastrophic events). The sector's 8.3% YoY growth in government holdings is in line with premium growth — currently manageable.
Risk level: Low — sector remains small relative to banking and pensions
BOT Special Funds · 2.0%
Governance & Transparency Risk
The 41.4% YoY growth of BOT special fund holdings — without clear public disclosure of fund mandates — raises governance questions. If special funds are used to indirectly support government financing outside normal budget processes, this could distort fiscal transparency.
Risk level: Medium — transparency and mandate disclosure needed
Others · 18.7%
Non-Resident Rollover Risk
The "Others" category — which may include non-resident investors — grew fastest in absolute terms (+TZS 1,343B, +22.4% YoY). Non-resident holdings of domestic currency bonds introduce rollover risk if sentiment shifts and investors choose not to roll over maturing bonds, creating sudden financing pressure.
Risk level: Medium — contingent on composition of non-resident vs domestic "others"
Risk Profile Summary — All Creditor Categories
SECTION 08
Complete Data Reference Tables
Full data from the Bank of Tanzania Monthly Economic Review May 2026, Table 2.6.6 — Government Domestic Debt by Creditor Category.
Government Domestic Debt by Creditor Category — April 2025, March 2026, April 2026 (TZS Billions)
Creditor Category
Apr 2025 (TZS B)
Apr 2025 Share
Mar 2026 (TZS B)
Mar 2026 Share
Apr 2026 (TZS B)
Apr 2026 Share
YoY Change (TZS B)
YoY Growth %
Direction
🏦 Commercial Banks
10,049.9
28.9%
10,925.8
28.4%
11,052.2
28.1%
+1,002.3
+10.0%
↑ Growing
🏛️ Bank of Tanzania
7,119.2
20.5%
6,935.5
18.0%
7,706.3
19.6%
+587.1
+8.2%
↑ Growing
👴 Pension Funds
9,171.1
26.4%
10,463.9
27.2%
10,426.4
26.5%
+1,255.3
+13.7%
↑↑ Fast growth
🛡️ Insurance
1,858.4
5.3%
1,997.1
5.2%
2,012.5
5.1%
+154.1
+8.3%
↑ Steady
💎 BOT Special Funds
564.5
1.6%
788.4
2.1%
798.4
2.0%
+233.9
+41.4%
↑↑↑ Fastest %
🌐 Others
5,996.8
17.3%
7,337.0
19.1%
7,339.8
18.7%
+1,343.0
+22.4%
↑↑ Fastest abs.
TOTAL Domestic Debt
34,759.9
100%
38,447.9
100%
39,335.8
100%
+4,575.9
+13.2%
↑ Expanding
Government Domestic Debt by Borrowing Instrument — April 2025, March 2026, April 2026 (TZS Billions)
Instrument
Apr 2025 (TZS B)
Apr 2025 Share
Mar 2026 (TZS B)
Apr 2026 (TZS B)
Apr 2026 Share
YoY Change
YoY Growth %
Government Securities (Total)
29,582.4
85.1%
33,321.1
33,438.1
85.0%
+3,855.7
+13.0%
— Treasury Bills (35/91/182/364-day)
1,935.6
5.6%
1,575.3
1,518.7
3.9%
−416.9
−21.5%
— Government Stocks
187.1
0.5%
135.7
135.7
0.3%
−51.4
−27.5%
— Government Bonds (2yr, 5yr, 7yr, 10yr, 15yr, 20yr, 25yr)
27,459.6
79.0%
31,609.9
31,783.7
80.8%
+4,324.1
+15.7%
— Tax Certificates
0.1
0.0%
0.1
0.1
0.0%
—
—
Non-Securitised Debt
5,177.5
14.9%
5,126.8
5,897.6
15.0%
+720.1
+13.9%
— Overdraft at BOT
5,159.1
14.8%
5,126.8
5,897.6
15.0%
+738.5
+14.3%
TOTAL Domestic Debt
34,759.9
100%
38,447.9
39,335.8
100%
+4,575.9
+13.2%
Monthly Domestic Debt Stock (TZS Billions) — April 2025 to April 2026 (from BOT Appendix Table 2.6.6)
Month
Commercial Banks
Bank of Tanzania
Pension Funds
Insurance
BOT Special Funds
Others
TOTAL (TZS B)
Apr-25
10,049.9
7,119.2
9,171.1
1,858.4
564.5
5,996.8
34,759.9
Mar-26
10,925.8
6,935.5
10,463.9
1,997.1
788.4
7,337.0
38,447.9
Apr-26
11,052.2
7,706.3
10,426.4
2,012.5
798.4
7,339.8
39,335.8
YoY Change
+1,002.3
+587.1
+1,255.3
+154.1
+233.9
+1,343.0
+4,575.9
YoY Growth %
+10.0%
+8.2%
+13.7%
+8.3%
+41.4%
+22.4%
+13.2%
SECTION 09
Outlook — Domestic Debt Creditor Dynamics: What to Watch in 2026
Tanzania's domestic debt market is deepening, with more creditor groups actively participating. However, the rising overdraft, the concentration of pension fund assets in sovereign bonds, and the pace of total debt growth are critical variables for the remainder of 2026.
✔ Positive Signals
→Oversubscribed T-bill auctions (2× in April 2026) show strong domestic demand for government paper — no financing constraint in the near term
→T-bill yields falling to 5.06% (April 2026) from 8.86% (April 2025) — government borrowing costs declining, easing interest payment burden
→Shift to long-tenor bonds (80.8% of debt in government bonds) reduces rollover risk and aligns debt maturity with infrastructure asset lives
→Private credit not crowded out — growing 23.6% YoY alongside 13.2% domestic debt growth; banking sector liquidity remains adequate
→Broadening investor base — "Others" category fastest absolute growth (+22.4%) may indicate non-resident participation and market development
→Overdraft growing 14.3% YoY to TZS 5.9T — overdraft at BOT is the least disciplined form of financing, signalling budget execution cash-flow gaps
→Pension fund concentration — TZS 10.4T (26.5% of domestic debt) in pension fund hands creates systemic risk if government faces debt restructuring pressures in the future
→Interest payments rising — TZS 379B in interest payments (March 2026 alone), down from estimate but still a significant recurrent budget line item
→Domestic debt stock growing faster than GDP — at 13.2% YoY, domestic debt growth outpaces Tanzania's nominal GDP growth of ~10%, pointing to a rising domestic debt/GDP ratio
→BOT monetary-fiscal boundary — BOT holdings of TZS 7.7T including overdraft risks undermining inflation targeting credibility if the government relies more heavily on monetary financing
→5-yr & 10-yr bond yields declining (9.54% and 9.40% April 2026) may not adequately compensate longer-term investors for duration and inflation risks
Creditor Category Holdings — Projected Trajectory vs Current (TZS Billions)
Bottom line for investors and policymakers: Tanzania's domestic debt market is functioning well — oversubscribed auctions, falling yields, and no crowding-out signal a healthy market. However, the structural risks of pension fund concentration, BOT overdraft growth, and the speed of total debt expansion (13.2% YoY) require monitoring. The most critical action needed: reduce the BOT overdraft by converting it to marketable securities, and develop more pension fund investment options beyond sovereign bonds.
Data Source: Bank of Tanzania — Monthly Economic Review, May 2026, Table 2.6.5 (Domestic Debt by Borrowing Instrument) and Table 2.6.6 (Domestic Debt by Creditor Category). | All figures in TZS Billions unless stated. Figures marked 'p' are provisional. | Analysis: TICGL Economic Intelligence Unit, June 2026.
Tanzania External Debt Analysis 2026: Stock by Borrower, Use of Funds & Currency Composition | TICGL
💰 TICGL Debt Intelligence
Tanzania External Debt Deep-Dive Analysis — April 2026
A detailed examination of Tanzania's external debt stock by borrower category, disbursed outstanding debt by use of funds, currency composition, and creditor structure — drawn from the Bank of Tanzania Monthly Economic Review, May 2026 and Ministry of Finance data.
📅 Reference Date: End of April 2026📖 Source: BOT MER May 2026 | Ministry of Finance🏢 TICGL Research Unit
USD 35,949.6M
Total External Debt Stock
▲ +0.5% from Mar-26
USD 29,717.5M
Central Govt External Debt
82.7% of public DOD
USD 6,232.1M
Private Sector External Debt
17.3% of total DOD
58.3%
Multilateral Creditor Share
Largest creditor group
66.0%
USD-Denominated Debt
Currency concentration risk
22.4%
Transport & Telecom (Use of Funds)
Largest sector, ▲ from 21.5%
USD 51,067.2M
Total National Debt Stock
External 70.4% | Domestic 29.6%
1
External Debt Overview & Total National Debt
Tanzania's total national debt stock reached USD 51,067.2 million at the end of April 2026, a 0.5% increase from USD 50,803.5 million at the end of March 2026. External debt accounts for 70.4% of the total national debt stock, with domestic debt comprising the remaining 29.6%.
The external debt stock (public and private) stood at USD 35,949.6 million at the end of April 2026. Of this, public external debt — that is, obligations of the central government and public corporations — represented 82.7%, while the private sector held the remaining 17.3%. During April 2026, external loans disbursed amounted to USD 54 million, mainly to the central government, while external debt service payments totalled USD 242 million, of which USD 190.4 million was for principal repayments.
Total National Debt
USD 51,067.2M
End of April 2026 | ▲ 0.5% from Mar-26
External Debt (70.4%)
USD 35,949.6M
Public + Private. DOD = USD 35,423.2M
Domestic Debt (29.6%)
TZS 39,335.8B
≈ USD 15,117.6M. ▲ 2.3% from Mar-26
Apr-26 Disbursements
USD 54.0M
Mainly to central government
Apr-26 Debt Service
USD 242.0M
Principal USD 190.4M | Interest USD 51.7M
National Debt Composition — April 2026
Source: Ministry of Finance and BOT, Table A10
Total External Debt Stock — Monthly Trend (USD Millions)
Source: BOT MER May 2026, Table A10
2
External Debt Stock by Borrower Category
Tanzania's external debt is classified by borrower into three main categories: Central Government, Public Corporations, and Private Sector. As of April 2026, the central government remains the dominant external borrower with a disbursed outstanding debt (DOD) of USD 29,717.5 million — representing 82.4% of total disbursed external debt. This reflects Tanzania's strategy of centralising external borrowing for development financing under the central government's authority.
Public corporations — which include entities such as TANESCO, ATCL, TRC, TPA, TFC, and DAWASA — recorded zero outstanding external debt as at April 2026, indicating that all outstanding obligations of these entities have been cleared or transferred. The private sector holds USD 5,785.9 million in disbursed external debt, representing 16.1% of the total — a significant share reflecting the growing role of private investment and PPP financing in Tanzania's development.
82.4%
Central Government
USD 29,717.5M (DOD)
▲ from 80.9% (Apr-25)
16.1%
Private Sector
USD 5,785.9M (DOD)
▼ from 17.3% (Apr-25)
1.5%
Interest Arrears
USD 526.3M
Commercial & Bilateral
0.0%
Public Corporations
USD 0M (DOD)
Cleared
DOD by Borrower — April 2026 vs April 2025 (USD Millions)
Source: Ministry of Finance and BOT, Table 2.6.1 and Table A10
Borrower Share of Total DOD — April 2026 (%)
Source: BOT MER May 2026, Table 2.6.1
External Debt Stock by Borrower — Detailed Table (USD Millions)
Borrower
Apr-25 Amount
Apr-25 Share %
Mar-26 Amount
Mar-26 Share %
Apr-26 Amount
Apr-26 Share %
YoY Change
Central Government
27,314.0
80.9
29,679.8
82.7
29,717.5
82.4
+8.8%
Disbursed Outstanding Debt
27,236.1
—
29,599.9
—
29,637.3
82.4
+8.8%
Interest Arrears
78.0
—
80.0
—
80.1
—
+2.7%
Private Sector
6,446.7
19.1
6,206.3
17.3
6,232.1
17.3
−3.3%
Disbursed Outstanding Debt
5,853.1
—
5,778.4
—
5,785.9
16.1
−1.2%
Interest Arrears
593.7
—
428.0
—
446.2
—
−24.8%
Public Corporations
3.8
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Cleared
TOTAL EXTERNAL DEBT STOCK
33,764.5
100.0
35,886.2
100.0
35,949.6
100.0
+6.5%
Source: Ministry of Finance and Bank of Tanzania, Table 2.6.1. DOD = Disbursed Outstanding Debt. Note: TANESCO, ATCL, TRC, TPA, TFC, and DAWASA have no outstanding external debt as of April 2026.
Key Observation: The central government's share of disbursed external debt increased from 80.7% (Apr-25) to 82.4% (Apr-26), while the private sector's share declined from 17.3% to 16.1%. This trend suggests that government-led concessional borrowing is growing faster than private sector external financing — potentially reflecting reduced private sector external appetite amid higher global interest rates, while the government continues accessing multilateral development finance.
3
External Debt Stock by Creditor Category
The composition of Tanzania's external debt by creditor remained broadly unchanged in April 2026. Multilateral institutions — including the World Bank Group (IDA), African Development Bank, International Monetary Fund, and others — continue to dominate at 58.3% of total disbursed external debt (USD 20,926.1 million). This is a structurally positive feature as multilateral lending typically offers concessional terms with low interest rates (often 0.5–2%) and long maturities (25–40 years), reducing debt service pressure.
Commercial lenders — including commercial banks and bond markets — account for 34.3% (USD 12,345.0 million), representing the most expensive component of Tanzania's external debt in terms of interest rates. Bilateral creditors (government-to-government) account for 4.1% (USD 1,478.3 million), while export credits contribute the remaining 1.9% (USD 673.8 million).
Debt by Creditor Category — April 2026 (USD Millions)
Source: Ministry of Finance and BOT, Table 2.6.2
Creditor Category Trend — Apr-25 to Apr-26 (USD Millions)
Source: BOT MER May 2026, Table 2.6.2
External Debt by Creditor — Detailed Table (USD Millions)
Creditor
Apr-25 Amount
Apr-25 Share %
Mar-26 Amount
Mar-26 Share %
Apr-26 Amount
Apr-26 Share %
YoY %
Multilateral
18,965.7
56.2
20,826.5
58.0
20,950.3
58.3
+10.5%
Disbursed Outstanding (DOD)
18,931.8
—
20,803.3
—
20,926.1
58.2
+10.5%
Interest Arrears
33.8
—
23.2
—
24.2
—
−28.4%
Commercial
12,253.2
36.3
12,778.5
35.6
12,710.1
35.4
+3.7%
Disbursed Outstanding (DOD)
11,869.4
—
12,429.1
—
12,345.0
34.3
+4.0%
Interest Arrears
383.8
—
349.4
—
365.1
—
−4.9%
Bilateral
1,463.2
4.3
1,553.5
4.3
1,558.4
4.3
+6.5%
Disbursed Outstanding (DOD)
1,385.3
—
1,473.6
—
1,478.3
4.1
+6.7%
Interest Arrears
78.0
—
80.0
—
80.1
—
+2.7%
Export Credits
1,082.4
3.2
727.7
2.0
730.7
2.0
−32.5%
Disbursed Outstanding (DOD)
906.4
—
672.4
—
673.8
1.9
−25.6%
Interest Arrears
176.1
—
55.3
—
56.9
—
−67.7%
TOTAL EXTERNAL DEBT
33,764.5
100.0
35,886.2
100.0
35,949.6
100.0
+6.5%
Source: Ministry of Finance and Bank of Tanzania, Table 2.6.2. DOD = Disbursed Outstanding Debt.
4
Disbursed Outstanding Debt by Use of Funds — Percentage Share
The sectoral allocation of Tanzania's disbursed outstanding external debt reveals the country's investment priorities as financed through external borrowing. As of April 2026, Transport & Telecommunication leads at 22.4% (USD 7,928.3 million) — up from 21.5% in April 2025 — reflecting continued investment in roads, railways, ports, and telecommunications infrastructure including the Standard Gauge Railway (SGR) and TANZAM highway improvements.
Balance of Payments and Budget Support is the second-largest category at 22.3% (USD 7,901.5 million), reflecting programme and general budget support lending from multilateral institutions such as the World Bank and IMF. Social Welfare & Education takes third place at 19.3% (USD 6,848.2 million), financing health, education, and social protection programmes. Energy & Mining accounts for 12.0%, reflecting investment in the power sector including the Julius Nyerere Hydropower Project and rural electrification initiatives.
Use of Funds — Percentage Share Breakdown (April 2026)
Transport & Telecommunication22.4% — USD 7,928.3M
Balance of Payments & Budget Support22.3% — USD 7,901.5M
Social Welfare & Education19.3% — USD 6,848.2M
Energy & Mining12.0% — USD 4,255.1M
Real Estate & Construction5.1% — USD 1,792.8M
Industries3.7% — USD 1,307.2M
Finance & Insurance3.6% — USD 1,267.6M
Other4.5% — USD 1,600.7M
Agriculture5.3% — USD 1,883.6M
Tourism1.8% — USD 638.2M
Use of Funds — Donut Chart (April 2026)
Source: Ministry of Finance and BOT, Table 2.6.3
Use of Funds % Share — Apr-25 vs Mar-26 vs Apr-26
Source: BOT MER May 2026, Table 2.6.3
Disbursed Outstanding Debt by Use of Funds — Full Detail (USD Millions & % Share)
Sector / Activity
Apr-25 Amount
Apr-25 %
Mar-26 Amount
Mar-26 %
Apr-26 Amount
Apr-26 %
YoY Change Amount
Share Change
Transport & Telecom
7,129.9
21.5
7,900.3
22.3
7,928.3
22.4
+798.4
+0.9pp
BoP & Budget Support
6,834.6
20.7
7,878.7
22.3
7,901.5
22.3
+1,066.9
+1.6pp
Social Welfare & Education
6,670.9
20.2
6,794.0
19.2
6,848.2
19.3
+177.3
−0.9pp
Energy & Mining
4,268.2
12.9
4,236.4
12.0
4,255.1
12.0
−13.1
−0.9pp
Real Estate & Construction
1,572.7
4.8
1,792.7
5.1
1,792.8
5.1
+220.1
+0.3pp
Agriculture
1,647.3
5.0
1,875.3
5.3
1,883.6
5.3
+236.3
+0.3pp
Other
1,816.8
5.5
1,695.0
4.8
1,600.7
4.5
−216.1
−1.0pp
Industries
1,173.8
3.5
1,306.6
3.7
1,307.2
3.7
+133.4
+0.2pp
Finance & Insurance
1,387.1
4.2
1,264.0
3.6
1,267.6
3.6
−119.5
−0.6pp
Tourism
591.7
1.8
635.3
1.8
638.2
1.8
+46.5
0.0pp
TOTAL DOD
33,092.9
100.0
35,378.3
100.0
35,423.2
100.0
+2,330.3
—
Source: Ministry of Finance and Bank of Tanzania, Table 2.6.3. pp = percentage points. DOD = Disbursed Outstanding Debt. Amount in USD Millions computed from Table A10 using DOD totals and percentage shares.
Infrastructure-Led Borrowing: Transport & Telecom (22.4%) and BoP/Budget Support (22.3%) together account for nearly 45% of all disbursed external debt. Combined with Energy & Mining (12.0%), Tanzania is channelling over 56% of its external borrowing into infrastructure and macro-stability financing — consistent with the FYDP IV and Tanzania's Vision 2050 (Dira 2050) ambitions. Social welfare and education at 19.3% reflects Tanzania's commitment to human capital development alongside physical infrastructure.
5
Disbursed Outstanding Debt by Currency Composition — Percentage Share
The currency composition of Tanzania's external debt is a critical determinant of currency risk exposure. As of April 2026, the US Dollar dominates, accounting for 66.0% of disbursed outstanding debt — equivalent to approximately USD 23,396.4 million. This represents a slight decline from 66.6% in April 2025, but remains the overwhelmingly dominant currency.
The Euro is the second-largest currency at 17.7% (approximately USD 6,253.0 million), followed by the Chinese Yuan (CNY/RMB) at 6.6% (USD 2,333.0 million) — reflecting growing Chinese development finance through concessional loans. All other currencies combined account for 9.7% (USD 3,440.8 million).
This currency concentration in USD (66%) creates significant exchange rate risk: a depreciation of the Tanzanian shilling against the US dollar directly inflates the local-currency value of debt and debt service obligations. The shilling's 2.7% appreciation against the USD in April 2026 (TZS 2,612 vs TZS 2,684 a year earlier) provides some relief but does not eliminate this structural vulnerability.
66.0%
🇺🇸 US Dollar
≈ USD 23,396.4M
▼ from 66.6% (Apr-25)
17.7%
🇪🇺 Euro
≈ USD 6,253.0M
▲ from 17.4% (Apr-25)
6.6%
🇨🇳 Chinese Yuan
≈ USD 2,333.0M
▲ from 6.4% (Apr-25)
9.7%
🌐 Other Currencies
≈ USD 3,440.8M
Stable (9.7% Apr-25)
Currency Composition — April 2026 (% of Total DOD)
Currency Composition — Full Table (% Share & Estimated Amounts)
Currency
Apr-25 %
Apr-25 Amount (USD M)*
Feb-26 %
Feb-26 Amount (USD M)*
Apr-26 %
Apr-26 Amount (USD M)*
Share Change Apr-25 → Apr-26
🇺🇸 United States Dollar
66.6
22,029.3
66.3
23,334.9
66.0
23,396.4
▼ −0.6pp
🇪🇺 Euro
17.4
5,753.0
17.6
6,255.9
17.7
6,253.0
▲ +0.3pp
🇨🇳 Chinese Yuan (CNY)
6.4
2,113.6
6.5
2,307.5
6.6
2,333.0
▲ +0.2pp
🌐 Other Currencies
9.7
3,197.1
9.7
3,444.7
9.7
3,440.8
0.0pp
TOTAL DOD
100.0
33,092.9
100.0
35,343.0
100.0
35,423.2
—
Source: Ministry of Finance and BOT, Table 2.6.4. *Amounts are TICGL computations applying percentage shares to DOD totals from Table A10. pp = percentage points.
Currency Composition Trend — Historical (% Share of DOD)
Source: BOT MER May 2026, Table 2.6.4 and historical MERs
Currency Risk Alert: With 66.0% of disbursed external debt denominated in USD and a further 17.7% in Euros, Tanzania's debt service costs are highly sensitive to exchange rate movements. A hypothetical 10% depreciation of the TZS against the USD alone would increase the local-currency value of USD-denominated debt by approximately TZS 6.1 trillion (at current rates). The growing Chinese Yuan share (6.4% → 6.6%) introduces an additional non-USD currency exposure. Tanzania's current shilling appreciation (2.7% against USD in April 2026) provides a temporary buffer but cannot be assumed to persist given global oil price pressures and potential trade balance deterioration.
6
External Debt Flows: Disbursements & Service Payments
Monitoring actual external debt flows — disbursements inward and debt service payments outward — provides a clearer picture of Tanzania's debt management dynamics than stock figures alone. In April 2026, net external debt flows were negative at −USD 136.4 million (debt service exceeded disbursements), meaning Tanzania repaid more than it borrowed during the month.
External Debt Flows — Monthly (USD Millions, Apr-25 to Apr-26)
Source: BOT MER May 2026, Table A10
Debt Service Breakdown — April 2026 (USD Millions)
Component
Amount (USD M)
Share %
Total Debt Service
242.0
100%
Principal Repayments
190.4
78.7%
Interest Payments
51.7
21.3%
Disbursements Received
54.0
—
To Central Government
47.6
88.1%
To Private Sector
6.4
11.9%
Net External Debt Flow
−136.4
—
Net Transfer: After adding interest payments, net transfer on external debt was −USD 188.0 million — meaning Tanzania transferred a net USD 188M to external creditors in April 2026.
Source: Ministry of Finance and BOT, Table A10 (rows 6, 7, 8, 9)
External Debt Disbursements & Service — Monthly Detail (USD Millions)
Period
Disbursements
Debt Service
of which: Principal
of which: Interest
Net Flow
Net Transfer
Apr-25
133.9
155.5
142.3
13.2
−8.4
−21.7
May-25
112.9
404.7
286.2
118.4
−173.4
−291.8
Jun-25
1,161.9
259.1
185.4
73.7
+976.6
+902.8
Jul-25
497.2
122.3
92.7
29.6
+404.5
+374.9
Aug-25
119.5
85.6
32.9
52.6
+86.6
+33.9
Sep-25
606.1
130.9
75.3
55.6
+530.8
+475.2
Oct-25
171.1
344.3
262.0
82.3
−90.9
−173.2
Nov-25
228.9
110.1
76.4
33.7
+152.5
+118.8
Dec-25
274.1
183.5
136.8
46.7
+137.3
+90.6
Jan-26
143.5
99.0
81.5
17.5
+61.9
+44.4
Feb-26
93.1
100.8
35.4
65.4
−7.7
−73.1
Mar-26
335.9
129.5
60.0
69.5
+275.8
+206.4
Apr-26
54.0
242.0
190.4
51.7
−136.4
−188.0
Source: Ministry of Finance and Bank of Tanzania, Table A10. Net Flow = Disbursements − Principal Repayments. Net Transfer = Net Flow − Interest Payments.
7
External Debt Arrears
Total external debt arrears (principal + interest) stood at USD 2,191.9 million at the end of April 2026, representing 6.2% of total disbursed external debt. Arrears are concentrated in the commercial creditor category, which holds USD 1,273.0 million in principal arrears and USD 365.1 million in interest arrears — reflecting historical difficulty in servicing Eurobond and commercial loan obligations during periods of fiscal stress. Multilateral arrears are those owed by the private sector, not the government, per BOT notes.
External Debt Arrears by Creditor — April 2026 (USD Millions)
Source: BOT MER May 2026, Table A10 (row 10)
Total Arrears Trend — Monthly (USD Millions)
Source: BOT MER May 2026, Table A10
Arrears Breakdown — April 2026 (USD Millions)
Creditor
Principal Arrears
Interest Arrears
Total Arrears
% of Total Arrears
Commercial
1,273.0
365.1
1,638.1
74.8%
Export Credits
195.4
56.9
252.3
11.5%
Multilateral (private sector)
7.9
24.2
32.1
1.5%
Bilateral
189.2
80.1
269.3
12.3%
Total Arrears
1,665.5
526.3
2,191.9
100%
Source: Ministry of Finance and BOT, Table A10 (row 10). Note: Multilateral arrears are those owed by the private sector.
Source: BOT MER May 2026, Table A1 (Selected Economic Indicators)
Selected External Debt Indicators — Historical (Annual, End of Period)
Indicator
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024r
2025p
External Debt Stock (USD M)
20,503
21,921
22,953
25,519
27,833
30,253
31,951
34,765
Disbursed Debt (USD M)
18,765
20,029
20,958
23,251
25,393
27,889
30,416
34,053
Interest Arrears (USD M)
1,738
1,892
1,994
2,268
2,440
2,363
1,535
712
Inflation Rate (%)
3.5
3.4
3.3
3.7
4.3
3.8
3.1
3.3
GDP Growth — Real (%)
7.0
6.9
4.5
4.8
4.7
5.1
5.5
6.0
Pvt Sector Credit Growth (%)
4.9
11.1
3.1
10.0
22.5
17.3
12.4
23.6
Exchange Rate (TZS/USD, avg)
2,264
2,288
2,294
2,298
2,303
2,382
2,597
2,538
Source: BOT MER May 2026, Table A1. r = revised, p = provisional. Interest arrears declining sharply from 2022 peak (USD 2,440M) to 2025 (USD 712M) indicates significant arrears clearance efforts.
Positive Debt Trend: Interest arrears have declined dramatically from USD 2,440 million in 2022 to USD 712 million in 2025 — a reduction of 70.8% in three years. This reflects Tanzania's sustained effort to clear legacy arrears, particularly with commercial creditors, and signals improved debt management discipline. External debt growth (from USD 30,253M in 2023 to USD 34,765M in 2025 = +14.9% over two years) is broadly in line with GDP growth (nominal), suggesting debt-to-GDP ratios are not deteriorating significantly.
Election cycle 2025 fiscal implications for borrowing
TICGL Overall Debt Assessment — April 2026: Tanzania's external debt profile as of April 2026 reflects a country in active investment mode, financing infrastructure and social development through a blend of concessional and commercial external borrowing. The structural reliance on multilateral lenders (58.3%) is a key strength. The dominant USD denomination (66%) remains the principal currency risk, though the shilling's recent appreciation provides temporary relief. The dramatic decline in interest arrears (from USD 2,440M to USD 712M between 2022 and 2025) demonstrates improving debt management. The key medium-term challenge is ensuring that the current investment-driven borrowing translates into productivity gains and export competitiveness that can sustain debt service from domestic revenue rather than additional borrowing. At current GDP growth rates (6% real), Tanzania's debt trajectory appears sustainable, but close monitoring of the current account and commercial creditor exposure is warranted.
Related TICGL Resources
Explore Tanzania's economic landscape in depth with TICGL publications and analytical tools.
Tanzania Macroeconomic Review: Inflation, Fiscal Operations & External Sector – May 2026 | TICGL
🇹🇿 TICGL Macroeconomic Monitor · June 2026
Tanzania Economy: Inflation Surge, Fiscal Resilience & Trade Expansion
A comprehensive reading of the Bank of Tanzania Monthly Economic Review (May 2026) and the NBS National Consumer Price Index (December 2025) — covering inflation dynamics, monetary policy, government fiscal operations, and external sector performance.
📅 Data Period: December 2025 – April 2026📊 Sources: Bank of Tanzania · National Bureau of Statistics✍️ Analysis: TICGL Research Desk
4.0%
Headline Inflation April 2026
▲ from 3.2% (Mar-26)
5.75%
Central Bank Rate (CBR) Q2-2026
Unchanged
TZS 2,612
Exchange Rate USD/TZS Apr-26
▼ 2.7% appreciation y/y
USD 5,722M
Gross Foreign Reserves April 2026
4.4 months import cover
22.0%
M3 Money Supply Growth April 2026
Private credit +23.6%
TZS 3,837B
Govt Revenue Collected March 2026
▲ 8.5% above target
Section 1
Inflation Dynamics: From Stability to Renewed Pressure
Tanzania's price stability regime faced renewed pressure in April 2026, with headline inflation jumping sharply to 4.0%, driven primarily by fuel price pass-through effects from the Middle East geopolitical conflict. This section traces the inflation trajectory from December 2025 through April 2026.
4.0%
Headline Inflation Apr-26
5.7%
Food Inflation Apr-26
3.1%
Core Inflation Apr-26
5.3%
Energy & Fuel Inflation Apr-26
3.6%
NCPI Headline Dec-25
Headline Inflation Trend (Monthly, Dec 2024 – Apr 2026)
Annual percentage change, Base 2020=100 | Source: NBS & Bank of Tanzania
Inflation Components – Core vs Food vs Energy (Apr 2025 – Apr 2026)
Annual % change by category | Source: NBS & Bank of Tanzania
⚠️ TICGL Inflation Alert: April 2026 Surge
The sharp jump from 3.2% in March 2026 to 4.0% in April 2026 — a 0.8 percentage point monthly spike — represents the largest single-month acceleration in Tanzania's recent price history. The trigger is unambiguously external: crude oil prices surged from USD 95.58/barrel in March 2026 to an average of USD 103.91/barrel in April, peaking at USD 117.80/barrel. This transmitted directly into transport costs (which recorded a staggering 9.2% annual inflation in April) and indirectly into food prices. While domestic fundamentals remain supportive — adequate NFRA food stocks (500,962 tonnes), a stable shilling, and government subsidies — the near-term inflation outlook remains exposed to external geopolitical risks.
Annual Inflation by COICOP Division – April 2026
% change year-on-year | Source: National Bureau of Statistics (NBS)
NBS Data
NCPI by Division – December 2025 vs Prior Periods
COICOP Division
Weight (%)
Index Dec-24
Index Nov-25
Index Dec-25
1-Month Chg (%)
12-Month Chg (%)
Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages
28.2
124.27
129.98
132.56
+2.0
+6.7
Alcoholic Beverages & Tobacco
1.9
110.33
113.67
114.08
+0.4
+3.4
Clothing & Footwear
10.8
113.17
115.26
115.46
+0.2
+2.0
Housing, Water, Electricity & Fuels
15.1
115.59
117.70
118.27
+0.5
+2.3
Furnishings & Household Maintenance
7.9
114.38
117.61
117.81
+0.2
+3.0
Health
2.5
108.43
109.70
109.79
+0.1
+1.3
Transport
14.1
118.37
121.50
123.19
+1.4
+4.1
Information & Communication
5.4
106.16
106.49
106.70
+0.2
+0.5
Recreation, Sport & Culture
1.6
110.54
110.89
110.82
−0.1
+0.3
Education Services
2.0
108.84
112.01
112.01
0.0
+2.9
Restaurants & Accommodation
6.6
116.39
117.49
117.48
0.0
+0.9
Insurance & Financial Services
2.1
101.92
102.27
102.34
+0.1
+0.4
Personal Care & Miscellaneous
2.1
116.64
118.40
118.09
−0.3
+1.2
TOTAL — ALL ITEMS INDEX
100.0
116.87
120.01
121.11
+0.9
+3.6
Core Index
73.9
114.45
116.77
117.26
+0.4
+2.5
Non-Core Index
26.1
123.73
129.21
132.04
+2.2
+6.7
Energy, Fuel & Utilities Index
5.7
125.25
129.33
131.02
+1.3
+4.6
BOT MER Data
Inflation by Division – April 2026 (Month-on-Month & Annual)
Main Groups
Weight (%)
MoM Apr-25 (%)
MoM Mar-26 (%)
MoM Apr-26 (%)
Annual Apr-25 (%)
Annual Mar-26 (%)
Annual Apr-26 (%)
Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages
28.2
0.7
1.8
0.9
5.3
5.5
5.7
Alcoholic Beverages & Tobacco
1.9
0.1
0.1
0.3
3.4
2.1
2.3
Clothing & Footwear
10.8
0.0
0.5
0.3
2.0
1.3
1.6
Housing, Water & Fuels
15.1
0.8
0.7
0.9
3.8
1.6
1.7
Furnishings & Maintenance
7.9
0.2
0.1
0.4
2.3
2.3
2.6
Health
2.5
0.2
0.4
0.6
1.5
1.1
1.6
Transport
14.1
0.4
0.5
5.2
2.1
4.2
9.2
Information & Communication
5.4
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
1.0
1.0
Education Services
2.0
0.0
0.6
1.6
4.1
0.9
2.6
ALL ITEMS – Headline
100.0
0.4
0.8
1.3
3.2
3.2
4.0
Core
73.9
0.2
0.3
1.1
2.2
2.2
3.1
Non-Core
26.1
1.0
2.3
1.7
5.7
5.6
6.3
Energy, Fuel & Utilities
5.7
1.9
2.1
5.1
7.3
2.1
5.3
Section 2 — Fiscal Analysis
Central Government Budgetary Operations: Revenue Strength & Expenditure Execution
Government revenue collection in March 2026 significantly exceeded targets, driven by robust tax performance — particularly income taxes. This section analyses the revenue and expenditure structure of the central government for the fiscal year 2025/26.
TZS 3,837B
Total Revenue Collected — Mar 2026
+8.5%
Above Monthly Revenue Target
+10.8%
Tax Revenue Above Target
TZS 4,273B
Total Expenditure — Mar 2026
TZS 1,728B
Development Expenditure
Central Government Revenue: Actuals vs Estimates (March 2026)
Billions of TZS | Source: Ministry of Finance & BOT
Central Government Expenditure: Actuals vs Estimates (March 2026)
Billions of TZS | Source: Ministry of Finance & BOT
Cumulative Revenue Performance: July 2025 – March 2026 vs Annual Budget Targets
TZS Billions — Actuals vs Budget Estimates | Source: MoF & Bank of Tanzania computations
TZS 31,406B
Total Revenue Jul–Mar 2026 (Actual)
TZS 29,776B
Jul–Mar Estimate
+5.5%
Cumulative Over-Performance
TZS 40,466B
Full-Year 2025/26 Budget
Central Government Revenue — Detailed Breakdown
Revenue Category
Budget 2025/26 (TZS Bn)
Jul–Mar Estimate (TZS Bn)
Jul–Mar Actual (TZS Bn)
Mar-26 Estimate (TZS Bn)
Mar-26 Actual (TZS Bn)
Performance vs Target
Total Revenue (incl. LGAs)
40,466.1
29,776.2
31,406.1
3,534.7
3,836.9
+8.5%
Central Government Revenue
36,857.7
28,499.5
30,182.8
3,387.4
3,703.3
+9.3%
Tax Revenue
32,176.0
23,799.8
26,037.6
2,994.9
3,317.5
+10.8%
Taxes on Imports
11,563.0
8,698.5
9,211.0
941.1
1,093.2
+16.2%
Sales/VAT & Excise (Local Goods)
7,016.5
4,980.5
4,809.8
538.8
494.6
−8.2%
Income Taxes
11,367.9
8,372.0
10,314.0
1,320.9
1,547.8
+17.2%
Other Taxes
4,887.7
1,748.8
1,702.8
194.1
182.0
−6.2%
Non-Tax Revenue
4,681.7
4,699.7
4,145.3
392.4
385.8
−1.7%
LGA Own Sources
1,680.5
1,276.7
1,223.2
147.4
133.6
−9.4%
Central Government Expenditure — Detailed Breakdown
Expenditure Category
Budget 2025/26 (TZS Bn)
Jul–Mar Estimate (TZS Bn)
Jul–Mar Actual (TZS Bn)
Mar-26 Estimate (TZS Bn)
Mar-26 Actual (TZS Bn)
Total Expenditure
48,775.0
36,263.7
35,334.9
4,191.0
4,273.4
Recurrent Expenditure
31,281.3
22,903.2
22,928.5
2,584.7
2,545.3
Wages & Salaries
10,917.5
9,789.8
9,842.5
1,108.9
1,128.4
Interest Payments (Total)
6,493.7
4,986.6
4,149.3
636.8
379.1
— Domestic
3,697.3
2,856.0
2,718.3
351.4
236.1
— Foreign
2,796.4
2,130.6
1,431.0
285.4
142.9
Other Goods, Services & Transfers
7,088.6
8,126.8
8,936.6
839.0
1,037.9
Development Expenditure & Net Lending
17,493.7
13,360.5
12,406.4
1,606.3
1,728.1
Local
12,117.8
9,225.5
9,570.2
920.6
989.4
Foreign
5,375.9
4,135.0
2,836.2
685.7
738.6
Revenue vs Expenditure: Composition Chart (March 2026 Actual)
TZS Billions | Recurrent vs Development Expenditure, Revenue Categories
📊 TICGL Fiscal Observation
The central government's revenue performance in the first nine months of FY2025/26 (July 2025–March 2026) is notable: actual collections of TZS 30,182.8 billion exceeded the period estimate of TZS 28,499.5 billion by 5.9%. The standout performer was income tax, which surpassed its March 2026 monthly target by 17.2%, reflecting improvements in tax administration and compliance enforcement by TRA. Import tax collections also exceeded targets by 16.2%, consistent with the 16.4% growth in goods imports recorded in the year ending April 2026. However, VAT on domestic goods underperformed by 8.2% in March, suggesting pressure on formal sector consumption. On the expenditure side, development spending of TZS 1,728.1 billion in March 2026 exceeded estimates, a positive signal for capital formation. The overall budget balance showed a deficit of TZS 244 billion (cheques issued basis), below the estimated TZS 586 billion — indicating better fiscal management than planned.
The Bank of Tanzania's Monetary Policy Committee maintained the Central Bank Rate at 5.75% in April 2026, while narrowing the CBR corridor from 200 to 150 basis points. Private sector credit growth remained strong at 23.6%, led by trade, mining, and transport sectors.
Annual Credit Growth by Economic Sector (April 2026)
% change year-on-year | Source: Banks & Bank of Tanzania
Section 4
External Sector: Strong Exports, Widening Current Account Deficit
Tanzania's exports rose 13.5% to USD 18.9 billion in the year ending April 2026, propelled by gold and tourism. The current account deficit widened to USD 2,652 million due to robust import growth driven by capital goods and industrial supplies. Foreign exchange reserves remain adequate at 4.4 months of import cover.
Monthly weighted average exchange rate | Source: Bank of Tanzania
TZS 2,612/USD
Avg Rate Apr-26 (Stronger)
TZS 2,684/USD
Avg Rate Apr-25 (Weaker)
−2.7%
Annual TZS Appreciation
Section 5
National Debt Developments
Tanzania's total national debt reached USD 51,067 million at end-April 2026. External debt dominates at 70.4% of total, with multilateral creditors holding the largest share. Domestic debt grew to TZS 39,336 billion, largely driven by Treasury bond issuances.
External Debt by Creditor Category (April 2026)
USD Millions | Source: Ministry of Finance & Bank of Tanzania
Domestic Debt by Instrument (April 2026)
TZS Billions | Source: Ministry of Finance & Bank of Tanzania
Debt Category
Apr-25
Mar-26
Apr-26
Change (MoM)
Total National Debt (USD Mn)
46,738.5
50,803.5
51,067.2
+0.5%
External Debt Stock (USD Mn)
33,764.5
35,886.2
35,949.6
+0.2%
Multilateral
18,931.8
20,803.3
20,926.1
+0.6%
Commercial
11,869.4
12,429.1
12,345.0
−0.7%
Bilateral
1,463.2
1,553.5
1,558.4
+0.3%
Domestic Debt Stock (TZS Bn)
34,759.9
38,447.9
39,335.8
+2.3%
Government Securities
29,582.4
33,321.1
33,438.1
+0.4%
Government Bonds
27,459.6
31,609.9
31,783.7
+0.5%
Overdraft
5,159.1
5,126.8
5,897.6
+15.0%
Section 6 — Global Context
Global Economic Environment & Commodity Price Shocks
Global growth is projected to moderate to between 2.5% and 3.1% in 2026 amid geopolitical tensions, rising energy costs, and trade policy uncertainty. These headwinds have significant transmission channels into Tanzania's economy through fuel, food, and fertilizer import costs.
World Commodity Prices (Selected Items, Apr 2025 – Apr 2026)
Crude oil (USD/bbl), Gold (USD/troy oz ÷10), Wheat (USD/tonne) | Source: World Bank
Commodity
Apr-25
Sep-25
Dec-25
Jan-26
Feb-26
Mar-26
Apr-26
YoY Change
Crude Oil Average (USD/bbl)
65.91
66.46
60.88
63.65
68.01
95.58
103.91
+57.7%
Gold (USD/troy oz)
3,217.64
3,667.68
4,309.23
4,752.75
5,019.97
4,855.54
4,721.42
+46.8%
Coffee Arabica (USD/kg)
8.64
8.83
8.40
8.02
7.08
7.37
7.30
−15.5%
Coffee Robusta (USD/kg)
5.43
4.66
4.20
4.24
3.96
3.90
3.63
−33.1%
Wheat Hard (USD/tonne)
249.58
233.76
242.80
249.90
257.55
275.91
282.00
+13.0%
DAP Fertilizer (USD/tonne)
635.00
780.63
627.50
619.20
626.50
658.25
725.25
+14.2%
Urea (USD/tonne)
386.88
461.13
392.50
415.40
472.00
725.63
856.88
+121.5%
⚠️ TICGL Risk Watch: Urea Price Shock
The 121.5% year-on-year surge in urea fertilizer prices (from USD 386.88 to USD 856.88 per tonne) represents a critical risk to Tanzania's agricultural sector and food security. Combined with the 14.2% rise in DAP prices, Tanzania's farmers face sharply higher input costs for the 2026 planting season. The government's fertilizer subsidy program will face heightened fiscal pressure. TICGL recommends close monitoring of fertilizer import volumes and subsidy budget utilization in the months ahead.
📚 Further Reading from TICGL Research
Deepen your understanding of Tanzania's economic landscape with related analyses from our research desk.
Data Sources & Attribution:
1. Bank of Tanzania (BOT). Monthly Economic Review, May 2026. Bank of Tanzania, Dodoma. Available at: www.bot.go.tz
2. National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). Press Release: National Consumer Price Index (NCPI) for December 2025. Ref: AC 334/376/01/374. Dodoma, 08 January 2026. Available at: www.nbs.go.tz
3. Ministry of Finance, Tanzania. Central Government Operations Data (Cheques Issued), FY 2025/26.
4. World Bank. Commodity Markets Outlook. Available at: www.worldbank.org/en/research/commodity-markets
5. IMF. World Economic Outlook, April 2026. International Monetary Fund.
Disclaimer: This analysis is produced by TICGL Research for informational purposes only. All figures are sourced from official government and central bank publications. TICGL does not guarantee the accuracy of underlying source data. This document does not constitute investment advice.
Tanzania Shilling (TZS) Stability vs Inflation Rates 2018–2026 | TICGL Economic Intelligence
TICGL Economic Intelligence · Tanzania Currency & Prices
Tanzanian Shilling Stability vs Inflation Rates — 2018 to 2026
How much does the TZS/USD exchange rate drive price levels in Tanzania? This analysis maps every depreciation episode against headline, food, core and energy inflation — revealing when the currency is a friend of monetary stability and when it becomes the enemy.
Data: NBS NCPI + Bank of Tanzania MER May 2026Period: 2018 – April 2026Base Year: 2020 = 100Currency: TZS / USD
The signature chart of this analysis: TZS/USD annual average (left axis) plotted against annual headline inflation (right axis). The relationship is not always direct — Tanzania's inflation has multiple drivers — but every major depreciation episode leaves a visible imprint on the price level with a 6–12 month lag.
TZS/USD Exchange Rate vs Tanzania Headline Inflation (%)
Annual averages 2018–2025 + monthly data Jan–Apr 2026. Left axis: TZS per USD. Right axis: Annual inflation rate (%).
Reading the chart: Notice that the 2023–2024 sharp depreciation (TZS 2,382 → 2,597) did not immediately spike headline inflation — because food inflation was subdued and the CBR was held firm. The April 2026 inflation jump to 4.0% is instead driven by global oil prices (+65.6%), not a weaker shilling. In fact, the shilling appreciated 2.7% year-on-year in April 2026.
TZS/USD Annual Average — 8-Year Trend
Depreciation story: TZS weakened from 2,264 (2018) to a peak of 2,597 (2024) — a cumulative 14.7% depreciation over 6 years. The 2025 average recovered slightly to 2,538, and April 2026 traded at 2,612.
Annual Headline Inflation — 8-Year Trend (%)
Contained inflation: Despite significant exchange rate movements, Tanzania's headline inflation has stayed in a narrow 3.1–4.3% band over 2018–2026, well within EAC and SADC targets. This demonstrates effective monetary anchoring by the Bank of Tanzania.
SECTION 02
TZS Depreciation vs Inflation — Correlation & Quantified Impact
How tightly does the shilling's movement translate into price changes? The correlation is positive but moderate — depreciation raises import costs and fuel prices, but Tanzania's large domestic food production and BOT's active monetary management buffer the full pass-through.
Currency pass-through takes 6–12 months to reach consumer prices fully.
~0.3pp
Inflation impact per 5% depreciation
Estimated pass-through coefficient — lower than many SSA peers.
65.6%
Apr 2026 inflation driver
Oil price surge — NOT shilling weakness — explains Apr 2026 jump to 4.0%.
TZS Annual Change (%) vs Inflation Change (pp) — Year-on-Year
Key finding: Years of significant TZS depreciation (2023–2024) coincided with declining or flat inflation, because food prices (the largest CPI basket component at 28.2%) were falling. This shows the currency-inflation link in Tanzania is mediated primarily through energy/fuel imports, not food.
Annual TZS Depreciation (+) / Appreciation (−) vs Inflation (%)
2024 anomaly: The shilling depreciated 8.2% in 2024 (steepest in the series), yet headline inflation fell to 3.1% from 3.8%. Food deflation, declining oil prices, and strong forex reserves allowed BOT to prevent pass-through — a testament to effective policy.
Scatter: TZS Annual % Change vs Headline Inflation — Each Dot = One Year (2018–2025)
SECTION 03
Phase-by-Phase: TZS & Inflation History (2018–2026)
Tanzania's exchange rate and inflation history can be divided into four distinct phases, each with a different dominant driver and policy response.
TZS/USD Monthly Rate — Trend Line 2018–2026
2018–2021
Phase 1: Remarkable Stability
TZS held between 2,264 and 2,298/USD for four consecutive years — one of SSA's most stable exchange rate periods. BOT maintained tight liquidity. Inflation averaged 3.5% driven by domestic food and services.
TZS stable +1.5% total 4yrsInflation: 3.3–3.7%
2022
Phase 2: Global Commodity Shock
Russia-Ukraine war spiked global commodity prices. Fuel imports surged. Inflation peaked at 4.3% — the cycle high. TZS held steady at 2,303/USD due to strong gold export earnings and BOT FX intervention.
TZS weakened 8.2% in 2024 alone (2,382→2,597/USD). Counterintuitively, inflation fell to 3.1%. Declining global commodity prices, a bumper harvest season, and NFRA food stock releases offset the FX pass-through. BOT maintained CBR at 5.5%.
TZS depreciates 8.2% in 2024Inflation falls to 3.1%
2025–2026
Phase 4: Shilling Recovery, New Inflation Driver
TZS appreciated 2.7% YoY in April 2026 (2,684→2,612/USD), supported by gold export boom (+42% revenue) and BOT FX sales. But inflation jumped to 4.0% in April 2026 due to Middle East geopolitical conflict driving crude oil to USD 104/barrel — a global, not local, shock.
Inflation Decomposition — What Actually Drives Prices in Tanzania?
Breaking inflation into its components reveals that the TZS/food price link dominates in years of shilling weakness, while energy/fuel inflation is the direct transmission channel from global oil prices. Core inflation — which excludes food and energy — tracks domestic demand and is the most policy-relevant measure.
Inflation Components — Annual Rates by Year 2018–April 2026 (%)
Food Inflation vs TZS/USD (2024–Apr 2026)
Food inflation peaked at 7.7% in August 2025, well after the 2024 TZS depreciation — consistent with 6–12 month lag. By April 2026 food inflation had moderated to 5.7% as harvest season approaches.
Energy/Fuel Inflation vs Oil Price (2025–Apr 2026)
Energy inflation surged from 2.1% (March 2026) to 5.3% (April 2026) in a single month, directly tracking the crude oil price jump from USD 95.58 to USD 103.91/barrel. This is the sharpest single-month energy inflation increase in the dataset.
Core Inflation — Domestic Demand Signal (%)
Core inflation held between 1.9–2.7% through all of 2025, signalling well-anchored domestic demand. The April 2026 jump to 3.1% is driven by transport (fuel pass-through into services), not structural price pressures.
Contribution to Overall Inflation (Percentage Points) — Apr 2025 to Apr 2026
Reading the stacked bars: Core inflation (blue) has been the largest single contributor throughout the period. The April 2026 spike is explained by energy/fuel and core both rising simultaneously — the first time both have elevated together since 2022.
The highest-resolution view of the TZS-inflation relationship: 16 months of monthly data showing the TZS/USD rate alongside headline, food, core, and energy inflation simultaneously. This granular view reveals how quickly global oil prices transmitted into domestic prices in March–April 2026.
Monthly TZS/USD Rate (left axis) vs Inflation Measures (right axis) — Jan 2025 to Apr 2026
Month-on-Month CPI Change (%) — Jan 2025 to Apr 2026
The 1.3% month-on-month increase in April 2026 is the largest single monthly CPI jump in the 2025–2026 series, driven by transport (+5.2% MoM) and food (+0.9% MoM). In contrast, most months in 2025 recorded MoM changes of 0.1–0.9%.
TZS/USD End-of-Period Rate — Monthly (2025–2026)
The shilling strengthened from TZS 2,684/USD (April 2025) to TZS 2,602/USD (June 2025), then gradually weakened to TZS 2,612/USD (April 2026). The +2.7% year-on-year appreciation has provided a modest but meaningful anti-inflationary buffer.
SECTION 06
How TZS Movements Transmit to Consumer Prices — The Four Channels
Exchange rate depreciation does not raise all prices equally. Understanding the specific transmission channels is critical for interpreting TZS movements and their likely inflation impact in Tanzania's context.
⛽
Fuel & Energy Channel — FAST & DIRECT
Tanzania imports ~100% of refined petroleum. A weaker TZS directly raises pump prices within 1–2 months. Energy/fuel CPI has the highest correlation with TZS movements. Government fuel subsidies dampen but don't eliminate this channel.
Lag: 1–2 months
🌾
Imported Food Channel — MODERATE & SELECTIVE
Tanzania produces ~75% of its food domestically, so the food-currency link is weaker than in more import-dependent economies. Key imported items: wheat, cooking oil, sugar. Domestic food prices respond more to rainfall and NFRA stock releases than to TZS movements.
Lag: 3–6 months
🏭
Industrial Input Channel — SLOW & DIFFUSE
Manufacturing inputs (fertilisers, chemicals, machinery parts) priced in USD filter into local production costs over 6–12 months. This channel explains the stickiness of core inflation during and after depreciation episodes. Credit expansion amplifies this channel.
Lag: 6–12 months
🚛
Transport & Logistics Channel — FAST & BROAD
Transport costs (14.1% CPI weight) respond immediately to fuel price changes. Because transport is an input into every other sector, fuel-driven transport inflation cascades across food, health, education and services categories within 1–3 months of a fuel price change.
Lag: 1–3 months
Transport Inflation vs Fuel Prices vs TZS/USD — Monthly (2025–Apr 2026)
April 2026 case study: Crude oil rose from USD 65.91/barrel (April 2025) to USD 103.91/barrel (April 2026). Domestic diesel prices rose. Transport inflation hit 9.2% annual — and with transport as an input cost for 80%+ of consumer goods, this diffuses broadly across the CPI basket. The shilling's 2.7% appreciation partially offset the oil shock but could not fully absorb a 65% oil price increase.
SECTION 07
Complete Data Reference Tables
Full annual and monthly data used in this analysis, sourced directly from NBS and Bank of Tanzania official publications.
Annual TZS/USD Rate vs All Inflation Measures — 2018 to 2025
Year
TZS/USD Annual Avg
YoY TZS Change
Headline Inflation
Food Inflation
Non-Food Inflation
Core Inflation
Currency Verdict
Inflation Verdict
2018
2,263.8
Base year
3.5%
—
—
—
Stable
Moderate
2019
2,288.2
+1.1%
3.4%
—
—
—
Near stable
Low
2020
2,294.1
+0.3%
3.3%
—
—
—
Stable
Low
2021
2,297.8
+0.2%
3.7%
—
—
—
Stable
Moderate
2022
2,303.1
+0.2%
4.3%
5.1%
3.5%
3.4%
Stable
Peaked (global shocks)
2023
2,382.1
+3.4%
3.8%
4.1%
3.5%
2.9%
Depreciating
Moderate
2024
2,597.4
+8.2%
3.1%
2.1%
3.5%
3.4%
Sharp depreciation
Fell despite weaker TZS
2025
2,537.6
−2.3%
3.3%
6.4%
2.0%
2.2%
Partially recovering
Food-driven rise
Apr 2026
2,612.5 (avg)
−2.7% YoY
4.0%
5.7%
3.3%
3.1%
Appreciating YoY
Oil shock — not TZS
Monthly Data: TZS End-of-Period Rate & All CPI Measures — 2025 to April 2026
Month
TZS/USD (EOP)
Headline Infl.
Food Infl.
Core Infl.
Non-Core Infl.
Energy/Fuel Infl.
Transport Infl.
MoM CPI %
Jan-25
—
3.1%
5.3%
2.7%
4.0%
3.5%
2.4%
+0.6%
Feb-25
—
3.2%
5.0%
2.5%
5.0%
5.4%
3.2%
+0.6%
Mar-25
—
3.3%
5.4%
2.2%
6.0%
7.9%
2.1%
+0.8%
Apr-25
2,679.2
3.2%
5.3%
2.2%
5.7%
7.3%
2.1%
+0.4%
May-25
2,685.6
3.2%
5.6%
2.1%
5.6%
6.1%
1.7%
+0.1%
Jun-25
2,604.6
3.3%
7.3%
1.9%
7.1%
2.1%
1.6%
+0.3%
Jul-25
2,545.8
3.3%
7.6%
1.9%
7.1%
1.0%
1.2%
−0.3%
Aug-25
2,463.3
3.4%
7.7%
2.0%
7.3%
2.6%
1.4%
−0.1%
Sep-25
2,442.8
3.4%
7.0%
2.2%
6.7%
3.7%
2.1%
−0.6%
Oct-25
2,451.6
3.5%
7.4%
2.1%
7.3%
4.0%
1.7%
−0.2%
Nov-25
2,436.8
3.4%
6.6%
2.3%
6.2%
3.8%
2.9%
+0.3%
Dec-25
2,447.5
3.6%
6.7%
2.3%
6.2%
3.8%
4.1%
+0.9%
Jan-26
2,518.1
3.3%
5.7%
2.2%
6.0%
5.2%
4.2%
+0.2%
Feb-26
2,542.5
3.2%
5.7%
2.1%
5.9%
2.8%
4.0%
+0.5%
Mar-26
2,577.4
3.2%
5.5%
2.2%
5.6%
2.1%
4.2%
+0.8%
Apr-26
2,602.0
4.0%
5.7%
3.1%
6.3%
5.3%
9.2%
+1.3%
SECTION 08
Outlook: TZS Stability & Inflation Trajectory — What to Watch
The critical question for the remainder of 2026: can the shilling hold its ground while global oil prices remain elevated, and will the May–June harvest season provide the food disinflation needed to bring headline inflation back toward 3.5%?
→Middle East escalation: Further geopolitical tensions could push crude oil above USD 120/barrel — BOT projects near-term inflation risk remains elevated
→USD debt servicing: USD 242 million in external debt service in April 2026 alone creates structural USD demand pressure on the shilling
→Import growth outpacing exports: Trade deficit widened to USD 5.35 billion (2026p) — sustained import demand absorbs USD and pressures the shilling
→Global inflation revised up to 4.4%: External price levels feeding into Tanzania's import prices regardless of TZS strength
→Fertiliser prices rising: DAP prices at USD 725/tonne (March 2026), up from USD 320/tonne (April 2024) — threatening food production costs for the next growing season
→Core inflation now rising: Jump from 2.2% to 3.1% in one month (Mar→Apr 2026) signals that oil-driven transport costs are beginning to seep into underlying prices
Key Indicators at a Glance — Tanzania Shilling & Inflation Dashboard (April 2026)
Bottom line for investors and policymakers: The Tanzanian shilling is in better shape than it was in 2024. The April 2026 inflation spike is an external supply shock (oil), not a TZS weakness problem. If Middle East tensions ease and the harvest season delivers, headline inflation should moderate toward 3.5% by Q3 2026. The critical monitor: crude oil prices and TZS/USD monthly average.
Data Sources: National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) — National Consumer Price Index (NCPI) December 2025, Press Release Ref: AC 334/376/01/374 (08 January 2026). | Bank of Tanzania — Monthly Economic Review, May 2026. | World Bank Commodity Markets. | All TZS figures use official end-of-period or annual average exchange rates from Bank of Tanzania. TZS equivalent external debt figures are indicative, calculated at prevailing exchange rates. | Analysis: TICGL Economic Intelligence Unit, June 2026.
Tanzania Inflation, National Debt & Economic Performance 2025–2026 | TICGL Economic Intelligence
TICGL Economic Intelligence · Tanzania
Tanzania Inflation, National Debt & Economic Performance 2025–2026
A comprehensive analysis of Tanzania's consumer price dynamics, national debt in TZS, Tanzanian Shilling stability, monetary policy stance, and external sector performance — based on official NBS and Bank of Tanzania data.
Sources: NBS NCPI Dec 2025 & BOT Monthly Economic Review May 2026
Reference Period: Base year 2020 = 100
Last updated: June 2026
4.0%
Headline Inflation
April 2026
5.7%
Food Inflation
April 2026
3.1%
Core Inflation
April 2026
TZS 51.1T
Total National Debt
April 2026
2,612
TZS / USD
Avg April 2026
5.75%
Central Bank Rate
Q2 2026
23.6%
Private Credit Growth
Year to April 2026
USD 5.72B
Forex Reserves
4.4 months of imports
1. Headline Inflation Trend — Tanzania Mainland (2024–2026)
Annual headline inflation rose from 3.1% in January 2025 to 4.0% in April 2026, breaking above the EAC upper benchmark of 8% but accelerating due to global fuel price transmission from Middle East geopolitical tensions. Food inflation and energy are the dominant drivers.
Key Insight: After a stable 2024 (3.0–3.1%), inflation climbed steadily through 2025 reaching 3.6% by December, then jumped to 4.0% in April 2026 driven by fuel price pass-through. The 2025 acceleration was largely food-driven (food inflation hit 7.7% in August 2025).
Core vs Non-Core Inflation (%)
Food vs Non-Food Inflation (%)
Energy, Fuel & Utilities Inflation (%)
2. National CPI by Main Category — December 2025 vs April 2026
The table below tracks index levels, 12-month changes, and monthly changes for all 13 COICOP divisions. Transport recorded the highest monthly change in April 2026 (+5.2%) due to fuel price increases.
NCPI by Division (Base: 2020 = 100)
Division
Weight (%)
Dec 2024 Index
Dec 2025 Index
Apr 2026 12M %
Apr 2026 MoM %
Trend
Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages
28.2
124.27
132.56
5.7%
+0.9%
Elevated
Alcoholic Beverages & Tobacco
1.9
110.33
114.08
2.3%
+0.3%
Stable
Clothing & Footwear
10.8
113.17
115.46
1.6%
+0.3%
Low
Housing, Water, Electricity & Gas
15.1
115.59
118.27
1.7%
+0.9%
Stable
Furnishings & Household Equipment
7.9
114.38
117.81
2.6%
+0.4%
Stable
Health
2.5
108.43
109.79
1.6%
+0.6%
Low
Transport
14.1
118.37
123.19
9.2%
+5.2%
Critical
Information & Communication
5.4
106.16
106.70
1.0%
0.0%
Very Low
Recreation, Sport & Culture
1.6
110.54
110.82
0.7%
+0.3%
Low
Education Services
2.0
108.84
112.01
2.6%
+1.6%
Rising
Restaurants & Accommodation
6.6
116.39
117.48
1.8%
+0.1%
Stable
Insurance & Financial Services
2.1
101.92
102.34
0.1%
0.0%
Low
Personal Care & Misc.
2.1
116.64
118.09
3.5%
+0.2%
Stable
ALL ITEMS (Headline)
100.0
116.87
121.11
4.0%
+1.3%
Rising
CPI by Category — April 2026 Annual Inflation Rate (%)
3. Tanzania National Debt — TZS Analysis
Tanzania's total national debt reached TZS 51.1 trillion by April 2026. External debt dominates at 70.4% of the total, denominated primarily in USD (66%), Euro (17.7%), and Chinese Yuan (6.6%). Domestic debt has grown steadily driven by government bond issuances and overdraft utilisation.
TZS 51.1T
Total National Debt
April 2026 (Public + Private)
TZS 35.0T
External Debt (TZS equiv.)
USD 35.95B → ×TZS 2,602
TZS 39.3T
Domestic Debt Stock
+2.3% from March 2026
70.4%
External Debt Share
of total national debt
66.0%
USD Denominated
Key FX risk exposure
National Debt Growth Trend — Domestic Debt (TZS Billions)
Observation: Domestic debt has grown from TZS 14.3T in April 2018 to TZS 39.3T in April 2026 — a 175% increase in 8 years, driven mainly by government bond issuances to finance the budget deficit.
External Debt by Currency Composition (%)
FX Risk: With 66% of external debt in USD and the shilling historically depreciating, currency fluctuations directly inflate TZS-equivalent debt servicing costs. Government subsidies on fuel partially cushion transmission to inflation.
External Debt by Creditor Category (USD Millions)
External Debt by Use of Funds — April 2026 (%)
Domestic Debt by Instrument — April 2025 vs April 2026 (TZS Billions)
The Tanzanian Shilling has shown remarkable stability in 2025–2026, appreciating 2.7% year-on-year in April 2026 (TZS 2,612/USD vs TZS 2,684/USD in April 2025). This contrasts sharply with 2023–2024 when the shilling depreciated 3.9%. Shilling strength is critical: it directly reduces the TZS cost of servicing USD-denominated external debt.
TZS/USD Exchange Rate — Monthly Average (2025–2026)
Positive Signal: The shilling traded at an average of TZS 2,612.46/USD in April 2026, appreciating 2.7% year-on-year. The Bank of Tanzania sold USD 15.3M to maintain orderly conditions. Compared to the 2023 annual average of TZS 2,382/USD, the shilling has stabilised considerably.
Annual Average TZS/USD Rate (2018–2025)
Long-Term Trend: Over 8 years, TZS depreciated from 2,264/USD (2018) to 2,537/USD (2025 average). Every 100 TZS depreciation against USD adds approximately TZS 2.4 trillion to the TZS-equivalent external debt stock.
Critical Debt-Currency Nexus: Tanzania's external debt in TZS-equivalent terms nearly doubled from TZS 42.5T (2018) to TZS 93.8T (April 2026) — driven equally by new borrowing AND shilling depreciation. A 10% depreciation of the TZS against USD adds approximately TZS 2.4T to the external debt burden without borrowing a single new dollar.
5. Monetary Policy & Interest Rates
The Monetary Policy Committee held the Central Bank Rate (CBR) at 5.75% for Q2 2026, narrowing the CBR corridor from 200bps to 150bps to improve monetary transmission. The 7-day IBCM rate averaged 6.15% in April 2026. Money supply grew 22% annually.
6. External Sector: Exports, Imports & Current Account
Tanzania's export performance surged in the year to April 2026, reaching USD 18.9 billion (+13.5% YoY), led by gold, travel receipts, and manufactured goods. However, imports grew faster (+15.5%) widening the current account deficit to USD 2.65 billion. Foreign exchange reserves remain adequate at 4.4 months of imports.
Exports vs Imports of Goods (USD Millions) — Year Ending April
Top Export Commodities — Year Ending April 2026 (USD Millions)
Current Account Balance Summary (USD Millions)
Account Component
Apr 2025
Mar 2026
Apr 2026
2025 Annual
2026p Annual
% Change
Goods Exports
649.9
815.0
788.0
9,682.7
11,215.0
+15.8%
Goods Imports
1,111.0
1,411.6
1,751.3
14,236.3
16,568.5
+16.4%
Goods Balance
-461.1
-596.6
-963.3
-4,553.6
-5,353.5
+17.6%
Services Balance
+218.6
+266.0
+237.3
+3,908.0
+4,285.6
+9.7%
Current Account Balance
-437.3
-444.4
-838.4
-2,112.1
-2,651.8
+25.6%
Widening Deficit: The current account deficit widened 25.6% to USD 2.65 billion in the year ending April 2026. While foreign reserves remain adequate at 4.4 months of import cover, the acceleration in goods imports (capital equipment, industrial supplies) signals expanding economic activity but also increased external vulnerability if global oil prices remain elevated.
7. Government Revenue & Expenditure — Fiscal Consolidation
The government collected TZS 3.84 trillion in March 2026, surpassing its monthly target by 8.5%. Income tax led performance at 17.2% above target. Total expenditure of TZS 4.27 trillion was recorded, with development spending at TZS 1.73 trillion reflecting ongoing infrastructure investment.
Revenue vs Expenditure — March 2026 (TZS Billions)
Tax Revenue Composition — March 2026 (TZS Billions)
Credit to Private Sector by Economic Activity — Annual Growth Rate (%)
Credit Growth Leader: Trade recorded the highest annual credit growth at 44.2% in April 2026, followed by Transport & Communication (39.7%) and Mining & Quarrying (39.7%). Personal loans account for the largest share of outstanding credit at 35%, supporting MSMEs.
Zanzibar's headline inflation rose to 5.0% in April 2026 from 4.3% in April 2025, driven by food prices (9.9% annual increase) and transport (2.7%). The current account improved 18.5% to a surplus of USD 842 million, supported by a 21.7% rise in tourist arrivals to 944,056 visitors.
Zanzibar Inflation Rates — April 2026 (%)
Zanzibar Current Account Surplus (USD M) — Year Ending April
Zanzibar Export Growth — Top Commodities 2026 vs 2025 (USD M)
9. Global Economic Context & Risk Factors for Tanzania
The global economic outlook in 2026 presents external risks for Tanzania. The IMF projects global growth to slow to 3.1% while the World Bank forecasts 2.5%. Rising crude oil prices (USD 103.91/barrel average in April 2026, up from USD 65.91 in April 2025) are the primary inflation transmission channel.
Global Crude Oil Prices (USD/barrel) — 2025 to April 2026
Oil Price Shock: Crude oil surged from USD 62.75/barrel (May 2025) to USD 103.91/barrel (April 2026) — a +65.6% increase. This is the principal driver of April 2026's inflation spike, particularly in transport (+9.2% annual rate) and energy/fuel (+5.3%).
Gold Price (USD/troy oz) vs Tanzania Gold Exports (USD M)
Gold Windfall: Gold prices surged from USD 3,217/oz (April 2025) to USD 4,721/oz (April 2026), boosting Tanzania's gold export earnings from USD 3.82 billion to USD 5.44 billion — a 42.3% increase — significantly supporting foreign reserve accumulation.
Key Risk Factors for Tanzania — 2026 Outlook Assessment
Risk Factor
Current Status
Impact on Tanzania
Mitigation in Place
Severity
Global Oil Price Surge
USD 103.9/bbl (Apr 2026)
Transport inflation +9.2%; energy inflation +5.3%
Government fuel subsidies & fertilizer support
High
External Debt USD Exposure
66% USD-denominated
TZS 2.4T additional burden per 100 TZS depreciation
TZS appreciation +2.7% YoY; BOT FX intervention
Medium
Food Price Volatility
+5.7% annual (Apr 2026)
28.2% CPI basket weight — high household impact
NFRA stock: 500,962 tonnes; harvest season May 2026
Medium
Current Account Widening
-USD 2.65B (yr to Apr 2026)
Foreign reserve pressure; FX demand increase
Forex reserves at 4.4 months; gold export surplus
Medium
Domestic Debt Growth
TZS 39.3T (+13.2% YoY)
Crowding out private credit; higher interest payments
Data Sources: National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) — National Consumer Price Index (NCPI), December 2025 Press Release (Ref: AC 334/376/01/374, dated 08 January 2026). | Bank of Tanzania — Monthly Economic Review, May 2026. | All monetary figures in TZS unless otherwise stated. External debt TZS equivalents calculated at prevailing exchange rates. | Analysis: TICGL Economic Intelligence Unit.
Economic Performance in Zanzibar 2026 | Inflation, Government Finance & External Sector | TICGL
🌊 TICGL / TERI — Islands Economy Research
Economic Performance in Zanzibar — April 2026
A detailed analysis of Zanzibar's macroeconomic performance covering inflation dynamics, government revenue and expenditure operations, and external sector performance including tourism, clove exports and the current account. Based on the Bank of Tanzania Monthly Economic Review — May 2026 and OCGS statistical data.
📅 Reference Period: April 2026📊 Source: BOT MER May 2026 — Section 3.0📍 OCGS | Ministry of Finance & Planning, Zanzibar
5.0%
Headline Inflation
↑ Apr 2026
9.9%
Food Inflation
↑ from 4.7% (Apr-25)
1.1%
Non-Food Inflation
↓ from 4.4% (Apr-25)
TZS 249Bn
Revenue & Grants
+35% above target
$842M
Current Account Surplus
+18.5% growth
944,056
Tourist Arrivals
+21.7% annual
89.8%
Goods Export Growth
Cloves-driven
5.0%
Headline Inflation Apr-26
9.9%
Food Inflation Apr-26
35%
Revenue Above Target
$842M
Current Account Surplus
+22.4%
Export Growth
944K
Tourist Arrivals
Zanzibar's economy in 2026 presents a tale of divergence: a buoyant external sector driven by record tourism arrivals and exceptional clove export revenues, set against renewed domestic price pressures — particularly in food — and a sharp rise in headline inflation to 5.0% in April 2026. This compares unfavourably with the 4.3% recorded in the same month of 2025, signalling that price stability remains a challenge for the Isles.
On the fiscal front, Zanzibar's government delivered a strong revenue performance, exceeding its April 2026 monthly target by 35%. However, substantial development spending — accounting for 74% of total expenditure — produced an overall fiscal deficit of TZS 123.3 billion, fully financed through domestic borrowing. The external sector, anchored by tourism's dominance, posted a current account surplus of USD 842 million for the year ending April 2026, up 18.5% from the prior year.
3.1 Inflation Developments in Zanzibar
Source: BOT MER May 2026, Section 3.1 | Table 3.1.1 | OCGS (Base: July 2022 = 100)
In April 2026, Zanzibar's headline inflation reached 5.0% annually — a notable increase from 4.3% recorded in the same month of 2025. The primary driver was food inflation surging to 9.9%, unchanged from March 2026 but more than double the 4.7% registered a year earlier. This reflects both demand pressures in the local market and the impact of rising fuel costs on food supply chains and transport.
Conversely, non-food inflation eased sharply to just 1.1% from 4.4% in April 2025, with moderation particularly pronounced in the housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels category. This divergence between food and non-food price trajectories is a structural feature of Zanzibar's inflation profile in 2026 and mirrors similar patterns seen across the EAC region.
Zanzibar Inflation — All Main Groups | Monthly & Annual % Change (Base: July 2022 = 100)
Main Group
Weight (%)
Apr-25 MoM
Mar-26 MoM
Apr-26 MoM
Apr-25 Annual
Mar-26 Annual
Apr-26 Annual
Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages
41.9
0.0
0.7
1.6
4.7
9.9
9.9
Alcoholic Beverages, Tobacco & Narcotics
0.2
-1.3
0.0
0.0
-0.3
4.4
4.4
Clothing & Footwear
6.3
1.7
0.2
-0.2
3.9
1.6
1.5
Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas & Other Fuels
25.8
0.0
-0.2
0.8
5.5
-0.4
-0.4
Furnishings, Household Equipment & Maintenance
4.8
0.2
-0.4
0.0
3.4
2.3
2.2
Health
1.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.3
1.4
0.6
Transport
9.1
0.5
-0.1
1.8
2.2
1.7
2.7
Information & Communication
4.2
-0.3
-0.3
0.0
2.0
-0.2
0.0
Recreation, Sport & Culture
1.1
0.3
-0.2
0.0
4.6
3.6
2.6
Education
1.6
0.0
-0.3
0.0
2.6
1.6
1.5
Restaurants & Accommodation Services
1.4
0.0
-0.3
0.0
0.6
6.8
6.8
Insurance & Financial Services
0.5
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Personal Care, Social Protection & Misc.
1.7
0.5
0.3
0.0
3.6
2.0
1.9
ALL ITEMS — Headline Inflation
100.0
0.2
0.3
1.1
4.3
4.9
5.0
Food (Selected)
40.5
0.0
0.8
1.7
4.1
10.1
10.1
Non-Food (Selected)
59.5
0.3
-0.2
0.6
4.4
0.9
1.1
Annual Inflation by Category — April 2026 (%)
Inflation Shift — April 2025 vs April 2026 by Category (%)
Inflation Alert — Food-Led Price Surge: Zanzibar's food inflation at 9.9% is the dominant inflationary force in April 2026, driven by demand pressures in local markets and the pass-through of higher fuel costs into food supply chains. With food items accounting for 41.9% of the consumption basket — significantly higher than the mainland's 28.2% — food price shocks have a proportionally larger impact on household welfare in Zanzibar. The persistence of 9.9% food inflation since March 2026 suggests supply-side constraints have not yet eased.
Source: BOT MER May 2026, Chart 3.1.2 | OCGS & BOT Computations
Rising fuel prices are a key transmission channel for inflation in Zanzibar. Petroleum pump prices rose significantly from 2025 levels through early 2026, with the escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East pushing up global crude prices. Petrol and diesel prices reached their highest levels of the period in early 2026, before moderating slightly. Kerosene — widely used by lower-income households for cooking and lighting — also saw sustained price increases, compounding welfare impacts.
Zanzibar Monthly Average Retail Pump Prices — Petrol, Diesel & Kerosene (TZS per litre)
Petrol Price (Apr-26 est.)
TZS 3,450
Per litre (approx.)
↑ significantly vs Apr-25
Diesel Price (Apr-26 est.)
TZS 3,300
Per litre (approx.)
↑ geopolitics-driven
Kerosene (Apr-26 est.)
TZS 2,950
Per litre (approx.)
↑ welfare impact
Fuel-Inflation Nexus: Transport inflation in Zanzibar rose to 2.7% annually in April 2026, driven directly by higher pump prices. Since Zanzibar relies heavily on imported petroleum products — with fuel and lubricants comprising a notable share of its import bill — global oil price volatility poses an outsized risk to domestic price stability. The BOT notes that this vulnerability is expected to persist as long as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East remain elevated.
3.2 Government Budgetary Operations — Zanzibar
Source: BOT MER May 2026, Section 3.2 | Ministry of Finance & Planning, Zanzibar
Zanzibar's government revenue performance in April 2026 was exceptionally strong, with total domestic revenue and grants reaching TZS 249.2 billion — surpassing the monthly target by 35 percent. The outperformance was largely driven by substantial grant receipts of TZS 76.4 billion. Domestic revenue of TZS 172.8 billion was equivalent to 97.1% of its target, reflecting solid tax collection underpinned by robust tourism activity.
However, expenditure remained high at TZS 372.5 billion, with development spending comprising 74% of total outlays — reflecting the government's continued prioritisation of capital investment and infrastructure. This spending pattern resulted in an overall fiscal deficit of TZS 123.3 billion, fully financed through domestic borrowing, a structural feature of Zanzibar's fiscal architecture.
Total Revenue & Grants
TZS 249Bn
April 2026
35% above monthly target
Domestic Revenue
TZS 173Bn
97.1% of target
Total Expenditure
TZS 373Bn
Dev. spending: 74%
Overall Fiscal Deficit
TZS 123Bn
Financed domestically
Government Revenue — April 2026: 2025 Actuals vs 2026 Estimates vs 2026 Actuals (TZS Billions)
Government Expenditure Structure — April 2026 (TZS Billions)
Zanzibar Government Revenue — April 2026 Detailed Breakdown (TZS Billions)
Revenue Component
2025 Actuals
2026 Estimates
2026 Actuals
Variance vs Target
Tax on Imports
28.4
32.7
32.7
0%
VAT & Excise Duties (Local)
32.7
64.5
53.0
-11.5 (below)
Income Tax
43.6
27.3
28.0
+2.6%
Other Taxes
22.2
36.7
48.1
+31.1%
Non-Tax Revenue
31.4
19.4
11.0
-43.3% (below)
Grants
17.3
2.5
76.4
+2,956%
TOTAL Revenue & Grants
175.6
183.1
249.2
+35.0%
Zanzibar Government Expenditure — April 2026 (TZS Billions)
Expenditure Category
2025 Actuals
2026 Estimates
2026 Actuals
Share of Total
Wages & Salaries
67.2
67.4
78.8
21.1%
Other Recurrent Expenditure
73.3
29.4
17.9
4.8%
Development Expenditure
67.7
275.7
275.7
74.0%
TOTAL Expenditure
208.2
372.5
372.5
100%
Note: Of total development expenditure, 73.2% was domestically financed. Overall deficit TZS 123.3 billion, financed through domestic borrowing.
Zanzibar Fiscal Position — Revenue vs Expenditure April 2026 (TZS Billions)
Fiscal Strength — Development-Oriented Budget: The 35% revenue overperformance and continued prioritisation of development spending (74% of expenditure) underline Zanzibar's commitment to capital investment. The TZS 76.4 billion in grants — far exceeding the TZS 2.5 billion estimate — was the critical factor in the revenue surplus. Tax on imports and other taxes also outperformed, benefiting from the strong tourism economy. The challenge remains non-tax revenue underperformance (only 56.4% of target), which points to potential gaps in fees, levies and administrative collection.
3.3 External Sector Performance — Zanzibar
Source: BOT MER May 2026, Section 3.3 | Tables 3.3.1, 3.3.2, 3.3.3
Zanzibar's external sector delivered a strong performance in the year ending April 2026, with the current account improving by 18.5% to record a surplus of USD 842 million. The improvement was driven primarily by the dominance of service receipts — mainly tourism — which accounted for 96% of total export earnings. Meanwhile, the goods account deteriorated, with the goods deficit widening to USD 598.9 million as imports grew faster than goods exports.
Tourism remains the engine of Zanzibar's external earnings. Tourist arrivals grew 21.7% to 944,056 visitors in the year ending April 2026, generating service receipts of USD 1,553.8 million — a 20.7% annual increase. Clove exports provided the standout performance in goods, with export values surging on the back of higher global prices (clove unit price rising to USD 6,778.9 per tonne from USD 4,829.9 a year earlier).
Current Account Surplus
$842M
Year ending Apr 2026
+18.5% from 2025
Total Exports G&S
$1,618M
Year ending Apr 2026
+22.4% annual growth
Total Imports G&S
$784.6M
Year ending Apr 2026
+25.2% annual growth
Tourism Arrivals
944,056
Year ending Apr 2026
+21.7% growth
Current Account Balance — Year Ending April 2025 vs 2026 (USD Millions)
Exports of Goods & Services — Year Ending April (USD Millions)
Source: BOT MER May 2026, Table 3.3.2 | TRA & BOT Computations
Clove Export Value — Monthly Data: Apr 2025 to Apr 2026 (USD '000)
Services Receipts by Category — Year Ending April (USD Millions)
Zanzibar Exports of Goods — Detailed Breakdown (USD Millions / USD per Tonne)
Commodity / Metric
Unit
Apr-25
Mar-26
Apr-26p
Year 2025
Year 2026p
% Change
TRADITIONAL EXPORTS — CLOVES
Clove Export Value
'000 USD
662.7
5,127.0
4,173.8
3,328.2
38,654.7
>100%
Clove Volume
'000 Tonnes
0.2
0.7
0.6
0.7
5.7
>100%
Clove Unit Price
USD/Tonne
3,050.4
6,844.5
6,862.1
4,829.9
6,778.9
+40.4%
NON-TRADITIONAL EXPORTS
Seaweeds — Value
'000 USD
347.9
21.3
28.5
3,654.6
1,422.5
-61.1%
Seaweeds — Unit Price
USD/Tonne
522.3
525.3
525.3
561.1
547.1
-2.5%
Manufactured Goods
'000 USD
110.0
925.2
878.0
14,693.4
11,131.3
-24.2%
Fish & Fish Products
'000 USD
232.1
71.9
80.5
1,570.9
642.1
-59.1%
Other Exports
'000 USD
474.8
1,663.2
2,198.7
10,519.8
12,242.1
+16.4%
Sub-total (Non-Traditional)
'000 USD
1,164.8
2,681.6
3,185.7
30,438.7
25,438.0
-16.4%
GRAND TOTAL — All Exports
'000 USD
1,827.5
7,808.6
7,359.5
33,766.9
64,092.7
+89.8%
Zanzibar Goods Exports Composition — Year Ending April 2025 vs 2026 (USD '000)
Cloves — Zanzibar's Export Powerhouse in 2026: Clove export revenues surged to USD 38.65 million in the year ending April 2026, up from USD 3.33 million — an extraordinary increase driven by both volume growth (0.7 to 5.7 thousand tonnes) and a 40.4% rise in global clove prices (from USD 4,829 to USD 6,779 per tonne). This singular commodity shift transformed Zanzibar's total goods export performance. However, the dependence on a single crop for export dynamism also highlights vulnerability: a price correction or production shortfall could rapidly reverse these gains. Diversification — particularly in manufactured goods and marine products — remains a strategic imperative.
Source: BOT MER May 2026, Table 3.3.3 | TRA & BOT Computations
Imports by Broad Category — Year Ending April 2025 vs 2026 (USD Millions)
Import Structure by Category — Year Ending April 2026 (%)
Zanzibar Imports of Goods — Detailed Breakdown (USD Millions)
Category / Sub-item
Apr-25
Mar-26
Apr-26p
Year 2025
Year 2026p
% Change
CAPITAL GOODS
Total Capital
4.8
22.6
15.2
66.1
160.6
>100%
— Machinery & Mechanical Appliances
1.9
5.6
4.6
24.4
49.3
>100%
— Industrial Transport Equipment
1.3
10.3
5.4
21.5
56.0
>100%
— Electrical Machinery & Equipment
1.0
5.3
3.9
13.7
41.4
>100%
INTERMEDIATE GOODS
Total Intermediate
35.3
34.9
33.4
391.2
402.1
+2.8%
— Industrial Supplies (incl. iron & steel)
11.8
17.9
16.5
118.8
186.6
+57.0%
— Fuel & Lubricants
13.3
9.6
7.8
159.1
105.1
-34.0%
— Food & Beverages (Industrial Use)
7.6
3.8
5.0
76.2
64.3
-15.6%
CONSUMER GOODS
Total Consumer
5.6
8.8
9.0
69.1
100.3
+45.1%
— Food & Beverages (Household)
1.3
1.7
1.6
17.3
18.4
+5.9%
— Non-industrial Transport Equipment
0.2
0.2
0.3
2.2
3.0
+37.6%
— Other Consumer Goods
4.1
6.1
6.8
49.5
75.2
+52.0%
TOTAL IMPORTS (f.o.b.)
45.7
66.3
57.5
526.4
663.0
+26.0%
Import Analysis: Zanzibar's import growth of 26% reflects the island's ongoing development trajectory. Capital goods imports more than doubled, driven by machinery, industrial transport equipment and electrical goods — consistent with active construction and infrastructure projects. Consumer goods rose 45.1%, reflecting growing domestic demand stimulated by tourism income. Notably, fuel and lubricants imports fell 34%, suggesting either improved energy efficiency, fuel sourcing changes, or the earlier period of lower global oil prices before the April 2026 surge. The fuel decline partially offsets the overall import expansion.
Zanzibar vs. Tanzania Mainland — Inflation Comparison
Source: BOT MER May 2026, Sections 2.1 & 3.1 | NBS & OCGS Data
Headline Inflation — Zanzibar vs. Tanzania Mainland (%)
Key Inflation Metrics — Zanzibar vs. Mainland, April 2026 (%)
Zanzibar vs. Tanzania Mainland — Inflation Comparison Table
Metric
Zanzibar Apr-25
Zanzibar Mar-26
Zanzibar Apr-26
Mainland Apr-25
Mainland Mar-26
Mainland Apr-26
Headline Inflation (%)
4.3
4.9
5.0
3.2
3.2
4.0
Food Inflation (%)
4.1
10.1
9.9 / 10.1
5.3
5.5
5.7
Non-Food Inflation (%)
4.4
0.9
1.1
—
2.1
3.3
Transport Inflation (%)
2.2
1.7
2.7
2.1
4.2
9.2
Housing/Energy Inflation (%)
5.5
-0.4
-0.4
3.8
1.6
1.7
Food Basket Weight (%)
41.9%
28.2%
Restaurants & Accommodation (%)
0.6
6.8
6.8
1.6
2.1
1.8
MoM Headline (%)
0.2
0.3
1.1
0.4
0.8
1.3
Key Structural Differences: Zanzibar's higher food basket weight (41.9% vs. 28.2%) makes it more vulnerable to food inflation shocks. In April 2026, Zanzibar's food inflation at ~10% far exceeds the mainland's 5.7%, reflecting the more import-dependent and less agriculturally diversified nature of the island economy. Conversely, transport inflation is significantly lower in Zanzibar (2.7%) vs. mainland (9.2%), potentially reflecting different fuel subsidy structures or the composition of local transport services. Zanzibar's housing/energy category is actually in deflation (-0.4%), contrasting with mainland's +1.7% — a divergence worth monitoring.
Data Sources & Attribution: Bank of Tanzania Monthly Economic Review — May 2026, Section 3.0 (Economic Performance in Zanzibar) | Tables 3.1.1, 3.2.1, 3.2.2, 3.3.1, 3.3.2, 3.3.3 | Office of the Chief Government Statistician (OCGS), Zanzibar | Ministry of Finance and Planning, Zanzibar | Tanzania Revenue Authority | Bank of Tanzania Computations. Base year for Zanzibar CPI: July 2022 = 100. Base year for Tanzania mainland CPI: 2020 = 100. All data compiled and analysed by Tanzania Investment and Consultant Group Ltd (TICGL) / Tanzania Economic Research Institute (TERI). Contact: economist@ticgl.com | +255 768 699 002 | ticgl.com
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Tanzania Economic Review May 2026 | Inflation, Interest Rates & Monetary Policy | TICGL
TICGL / TERI — Economic Research Publication
Tanzania Economic Review: Inflation, Interest Rates & Monetary Policy — May 2026
A comprehensive analysis of Tanzania's macroeconomic performance drawing on the Bank of Tanzania Monthly Economic Review (May 2026) and the NBS National Consumer Price Index (December 2025). Covering headline inflation, lending and deposit interest rates, monetary aggregates, external sector performance, and government fiscal operations.
📅 Published: June 2026📊 Sources: BOT MER May 2026 | NBS NCPI Dec 2025🔬 TICGL/TERI Research
4.0%
Headline Inflation
↑ Apr 2026
15.33%
Overall Lending Rate
↑ from 15.11%
8.54%
Overall Deposit Rate
↑ from 8.33%
5.75%
Central Bank Rate
Unchanged
2,612
TZS/USD
↑ 2.7% Appreciation
22.0%
M3 Money Supply
Growth Apr 2026
$5,722M
Forex Reserves
4.4 months
1. Tanzania Inflation — April 2026 & December 2025 Overview
Sources: NBS NCPI Dec 2025 | BOT MER May 2026 (Table 2.1.1 & Table A9)
Headline Inflation
4.0%
April 2026 (annual)
↑ from 3.2% (Mar 2026)
Food Inflation
5.7%
April 2026 (annual)
↑ from 5.5% (Mar 2026)
Core Inflation
3.1%
April 2026 (annual)
↑ from 2.2% (Mar 2026)
Energy/Fuel Inflation
5.3%
April 2026 (annual)
↑ from 2.1% (Mar 2026)
Headline Inflation Trend — Jan 2024 to Apr 2026 (%)
Inflation by Category — Annual % Change, April 2026
Tanzania NCPI — Monthly Inflation by Main Groups (Annual % Change, Base 2020=100)
Main Group
Weight (%)
Apr-25 MoM
Mar-26 MoM
Apr-26 MoM
Apr-25 Annual
Mar-26 Annual
Apr-26 Annual
Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages
28.2
0.7
1.8
0.9
5.3
5.5
5.7
Alcoholic Beverages & Tobacco
1.9
0.1
0.1
0.3
3.4
2.1
2.3
Clothing & Footwear
10.8
0.0
0.5
0.3
2.0
1.3
1.6
Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas & Other Fuels
15.1
0.8
0.7
0.9
3.8
1.6
1.7
Furnishings, Household Equipment
7.9
0.2
0.1
0.4
2.3
2.3
2.6
Health
2.5
0.2
0.4
0.6
1.5
1.1
1.6
Transport
14.1
0.4
0.5
5.2
2.1
4.2
9.2
Information & Communication
5.4
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
1.0
1.0
Recreation, Sport & Culture
1.6
0.1
0.1
0.3
1.7
0.6
0.7
Education Services
2.0
0.0
0.6
1.6
4.1
0.9
2.6
Restaurants & Accommodation
6.6
0.3
0.4
0.1
1.6
2.1
1.8
Insurance & Financial Services
2.1
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.8
0.3
0.1
Personal Care & Miscellaneous
2.1
0.1
0.3
0.2
3.0
3.3
3.5
ALL ITEMS (Headline)
100.0
0.4
0.8
1.3
3.2
3.2
4.0
Core Index
73.9
0.2
0.3
1.1
2.2
2.2
3.1
Non-Core Index
26.1
1.0
2.3
1.7
5.7
5.6
6.3
Energy, Fuel & Utilities
5.7
1.9
2.1
5.1
7.3
2.1
5.3
Services Index
37.2
0.2
0.3
1.8
1.1
2.4
4.0
Goods Index
62.8
0.5
1.2
1.0
4.3
3.6
4.0
All Items Less Food & Non-Alc Beverages
71.8
0.3
0.4
1.5
2.3
2.1
3.3
Key Finding: Tanzania's headline inflation jumped from 3.2% in March 2026 to 4.0% in April 2026 — the highest level in the current measurement period. The primary driver was transport inflation surging to 9.2% annually, reflecting pass-through effects of rising global fuel prices linked to the Middle East geopolitical conflict. Food inflation at 5.7% and energy/fuel inflation at 5.3% compounded pressures. Core inflation rising to 3.1% signals that inflationary pressures are becoming more broadly entrenched beyond volatile components.
NBS NCPI December 2025 — Full Year Inflation Comparison (2024 vs 2025)
Indicator
2024 Avg
2025 Avg
Change
Headline Inflation
3.1%
3.3%
+0.2pp
Food Inflation
2.1%
6.4%
+4.3pp
Non-Food Inflation
3.5%
2.0%
-1.5pp
Core Inflation
3.4%
2.2%
-1.2pp
Non-Core Inflation
2.2%
6.2%
+4.0pp
Dec 2025 NCPI Index
116.87
121.11
+3.6%
Dec Headline Rate
3.1%
3.6%
+0.5pp
NBS Finding: Food inflation dominated 2025, rising from 2.1% to 6.4%. Core inflation actually declined, confirming that 2025 inflationary pressures were primarily food and supply-chain driven rather than structural monetary causes.
2. Tanzania Interest Rates — Lending & Deposit Rate Analysis
Focus Section | Source: BOT MER May 2026, Table 2.3.1 & Table A4
Tanzania's interest rate environment in April 2026 is characterised by stubbornly high lending rates alongside gradually rising deposit rates — a combination that sustains a significant spread between what borrowers pay and what savers earn. Understanding this dynamic is critical for investment decisions, business financing costs, and household savings behaviour.
The Bank of Tanzania's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) held the Central Bank Rate (CBR) at 5.75% through Q2 2026, while simultaneously narrowing the CBR corridor from 200 basis points to 150 basis points to strengthen monetary policy transmission.
Overall Lending Rate
15.33%
April 2026
↑ from 15.11% in Mar-26
Negotiated Lending Rate
12.56%
April 2026 (Prime customers)
↑ from 12.21% in Mar-26
Overall Deposit Rate
8.54%
April 2026
↑ from 8.33% in Mar-26
12-Month Deposit Rate
9.81%
April 2026
↑ from 9.60% in Mar-26
Lending Rate vs. Deposit Rate Trend — Mar 2025 to Apr 2026 (%)
Short-Term Interest Rate Spread (Lending minus Deposit) — %
Tanzania Bank Interest Rates — Full Structure (%) | Apr 2025 to Apr 2026
Interest Rate Type
Apr-25
Dec-25
Jan-26
Feb-26
Mar-26
Apr-26
12-mo Change
LENDING RATES
Overall Lending Rate
15.16
15.24
15.10
15.11
15.11
15.33
+0.17pp
Short-Term Lending Rate (≤1 year)
16.15
15.46
15.49
15.41
15.45
15.31
-0.84pp
Negotiated Lending Rate (Prime)
12.88
12.38
12.25
12.19
12.21
12.56
-0.32pp
DEPOSIT RATES
Overall Time Deposit Rate
7.82
8.36
8.33
8.32
8.33
8.54
+0.72pp
12-Month Deposit Rate
9.27
9.58
9.70
9.82
9.60
9.81
+0.54pp
Negotiated Deposit Rate
10.52
11.66
11.74
11.48
11.57
11.37
+0.85pp
Savings Deposit Rate
2.89
3.02
2.94
2.98
2.89
2.91
+0.02pp
SPREAD & POLICY RATES
Short-Term Interest Rate Spread
6.88
5.88
5.79
5.59
5.85
5.50
-1.38pp
Central Bank Rate (CBR)
5.30
5.75
5.75
5.75
5.75
5.75
+0.45pp
Lombard Rate
8.00
7.75
7.75
7.75
7.75
7.75
-0.25pp
Repo Rate
5.30
5.75
5.75
5.75
5.75
5.75
+0.45pp
Overall T-Bill Rate (Weighted Avg)
8.86
5.87
5.89
5.68
5.21
5.06
-3.80pp
Lending Rates by Tenor — April 2026 vs. April 2025 (%)
Deposit Rates by Tenor — April 2026 (%)
Treasury Bill Rates by Tenor — Mar 2025 to Apr 2026 (%)
Interest Rate Insight — High Spread Constrains Credit: The spread between overall lending rates (15.33%) and the Central Bank Rate (5.75%) stands at approximately 9.58 percentage points. While this spread has been narrowing year-on-year (from 6.88pp in Apr-25 to 5.50pp short-term spread in Apr-26), it remains exceptionally high by international standards. This constrains credit access for SMEs and long-term investment, and partially explains why private sector credit growth (23.6%) is concentrated in trade and personal loans rather than in manufacturing or capital investment. The BOT's decision to narrow the CBR corridor signals an intent to improve monetary policy transmission and gradually reduce this gap.
Foreign Currency Interest Rates (USD-denominated) — April 2026 vs. April 2025
Foreign Currency Rate
Apr-25
Mar-26
Apr-26
12-mo Change
Overall FC Lending Rate
8.89%
8.70%
8.96%
+0.07pp
FC Short-Term Lending (≤1yr)
9.97%
10.00%
10.07%
+0.10pp
FC Long-Term Lending (3-5yr)
8.36%
9.09%
9.19%
+0.83pp
Overall FC Deposit Rate
2.94%
4.26%
4.41%
+1.47pp
FC 12-Month Deposit Rate
3.01%
4.35%
4.83%
+1.82pp
FC Savings Rate
0.53%
1.22%
1.68%
+1.15pp
FC-TZS Lending Spread
~6.27pp
~6.41pp
~6.37pp
Broadly stable
3. Monetary Policy & Money Supply (M3)
Source: BOT MER May 2026, Sections 2.2 & Table 2.2.1
CBR (Policy Rate)
5.75%
Q2 2026 (Unchanged)
M3 Money Supply
22.0%
Annual growth, Apr 2026
↓ from 23.2% (Mar-26)
Private Sector Credit
23.6%
Annual growth, Apr 2026
↓ from 24.3% (Mar-26)
M3 Stock
TZS 65.1T
April 2026 (billion)
M3 Money Supply — Growth Rate Trend (%)
Credit to Private Sector by Sector — Growth Rate Apr 2026 (%)
4. Financial Markets — Government Securities & Interbank
Source: BOT MER May 2026, Section 2.4 & Table A4
T-Bill Weighted Avg Yield
5.06%
Apr 2026 (overall)
↓ from 5.21% (Mar-26)
5-Year Bond Yield
9.54%
April 2026
↓ from 10.54%
10-Year Bond Yield
9.40%
April 2026
↓ from 11.30%
IBCM Rate (Overall)
7.32%
April 2026
↑ from 6.32% (Mar-26)
Treasury Bill Rates by Tenor — Apr 2025 to Apr 2026 (%)
Government Bond Yields — Historical Comparison (%)
Government Securities Market: Tanzania's government securities market remains highly active and oversubscribed, with April 2026 T-bill auctions attracting TZS 859.5 billion in bids against a TZS 429.8 billion tender — a 2x oversubscription ratio. Bond yields have trended significantly downward from their 2025 highs, with the 10-year bond yield declining from 14.26% (Apr-25) to 9.40% (Apr-26). This yield compression reflects improved government credibility, strong investor demand, and the BOT's liquidity management operations.
Source: BOT MER May 2026, Section 2.7 & Table 2.7.1, A5, A6, A7
Total Exports (Year Apr-26)
$18.9Bn
+13.5% annual growth
Total Imports (Year Apr-26)
$19.9Bn
+15.5% annual growth
Forex Reserves
$5,722M
4.4 months import cover
TZS/USD Rate
2,612
+2.7% appreciation (Apr-26)
Tanzania Exports — Top Commodities Year-Ending April 2026 vs 2025 (USD Millions)
Tanzania Current Account Balance (Year-Ending April, USD Millions)
Current Account Summary — Year Ending April (USD Millions)
Account Item
2024
2025
2026p
% Change
Exports of Goods
9,121.6
9,682.7
11,215.0
+15.8%
Imports of Goods
14,195.6
14,236.3
16,568.5
+16.4%
Services Receipts
6,846.8
6,942.3
7,661.7
+10.4%
Services Payments
2,795.0
3,034.2
3,376.1
+11.3%
Export of Goods & Services
14,281.7
16,625.0
18,876.7
+13.5%
Import of Goods & Services
16,110.2
17,270.5
19,944.6
+15.5%
Current Account Balance
-2,769.1
-2,112.1
-2,651.8
+25.6%
Forex Reserves (USD Mn)
5,546.9
6,329.0
5,722.5
—
Import Cover (Months)
4.5
4.9
4.4
—
6. Government Fiscal Operations — Revenue & Expenditure
Source: BOT MER May 2026, Section 2.5 & Table A2
Total Revenue (Mar 2026)
TZS 3,837Bn
8.5% above target
Tax Revenue (Mar 2026)
TZS 3,318Bn
10.8% above target
Total Expenditure (Mar 2026)
TZS 4,273Bn
Development: TZS 1,728Bn
Income Tax (Mar 2026)
TZS 1,548Bn
17.2% above target
Revenue Components — March 2026: Actual vs Target (TZS Billions)
Expenditure Structure — March 2026 (TZS Billions)
7. National Debt Developments
Source: BOT MER May 2026, Section 2.6 & Table A10, Tables 2.6.1–2.6.6
Total National Debt
$51,067M
End April 2026
↑ 0.5% from Mar-26
External Debt Stock
$35,950M
70.4% of total debt
Domestic Debt Stock
TZS 39,336Bn
+2.3% from Mar-26
Public Ext. Debt Share
82.7%
Of total external debt
External Debt by Creditor — April 2026 (USD Millions)
External Debt Currency Composition — April 2026 (%)
Domestic Debt by Borrowing Instrument — April 2026 vs April 2025 (TZS Billions)
Instrument
Apr-25 (TZS Bn)
Share
Mar-26 (TZS Bn)
Apr-26 (TZS Bn)
Share
Government Securities
29,582.4
85.1%
33,321.1
33,438.1
85.0%
— Treasury Bills
1,935.6
5.6%
1,575.3
1,518.7
3.9%
— Government Bonds
27,459.6
79.0%
31,609.9
31,783.7
80.8%
Non-Securitized Debt (Overdraft)
5,159.1
14.8%
5,126.8
5,897.6
15.0%
Total Domestic Debt
34,759.9
100%
38,447.9
39,335.8
100%
8. NBS Consumer Price Index Detail — December 2025
Source: NBS NCPI Press Release, December 2025 (Ref: AC 334/376/01/374)
NCPI December 2025 — All Main Groups (Index Value 2020=100 & Annual Change)
S/N
Main Group
Weight %
Dec-24 Index
Nov-25 Index
Dec-25 Index
1-Month %
12-Month %
1
Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages
28.2
124.27
129.98
132.56
2.0
6.7
2
Alcoholic Beverages & Tobacco
1.9
110.33
113.67
114.08
0.4
3.4
3
Clothing & Footwear
10.8
113.17
115.26
115.46
0.2
2.0
4
Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas & Other Fuels
15.1
115.59
117.70
118.27
0.5
2.3
5
Furnishings, Household Equipment & Maintenance
7.9
114.38
117.61
117.81
0.2
3.0
6
Health
2.5
108.43
109.70
109.79
0.1
1.3
7
Transport
14.1
118.37
121.50
123.19
1.4
4.1
8
Information & Communication
5.4
106.16
106.49
106.70
0.2
0.5
9
Recreation, Sport & Culture
1.6
110.54
110.89
110.82
-0.1
0.3
10
Education Services
2.0
108.84
112.01
112.01
0.0
2.9
11
Restaurants & Accommodation Services
6.6
116.39
117.49
117.48
0.0
0.9
12
Insurance & Financial Services
2.1
101.92
102.27
102.34
0.1
0.4
13
Personal Care, Social Protection & Misc.
2.1
116.64
118.40
118.09
-0.3
1.2
TOTAL — ALL ITEMS INDEX
100.0
116.87
120.01
121.11
0.9
3.6
Core Index
73.9
114.45
116.77
117.26
0.4
2.5
Non-Core Index
26.1
123.73
129.21
132.04
2.2
6.7
Energy, Fuel & Utilities Index
5.7
125.25
129.33
131.02
1.3
4.6
Services Index
37.2
111.81
113.49
114.03
0.5
2.0
Goods Index
62.8
119.86
123.87
125.31
1.2
4.5
NCPI Movement Dec 2024 to Dec 2025 — Index Value & Inflation Rate
Dec 2025 Annual Inflation by Category (12-Month % Change)
Data Sources: Bank of Tanzania Monthly Economic Review — May 2026 | National Bureau of Statistics, National Consumer Price Index (NCPI) Press Release — December 2025 (Ref: AC 334/376/01/374) | NBS Statistical Tables A9(i)–A9(iv) | BOT Statistical Tables A2–A10 | Ministry of Finance, Tanzania | Tanzania Revenue Authority | NFRA (National Food Reserve Agency). Data compiled and analysed by Tanzania Investment and Consultant Group Ltd (TICGL) / Tanzania Economic Research Institute (TERI). economist@ticgl.com | +255 768 699 002 | ticgl.com
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Tanzania External Sector Performance 2026: Current Account, Services Receipts & Payments | TICGL
📊 TICGL External Sector Analysis
Tanzania External Sector Performance Year Ending April 2026
A detailed examination of Tanzania's balance of payments focusing on the current account balance, services receipts by category (travel, transport, other), and services payments — drawn from the Bank of Tanzania Monthly Economic Review, May 2026.
📅 Period: Year Ending April 2026📖 Source: Bank of Tanzania MER May 2026🏢 TICGL Research Unit
−USD 2,651.8M
Current Account Deficit (Yr Apr-26)
▲ wider from −USD 2,107.1M (Yr Apr-25)
USD 18,876.7M
Total Exports of Goods & Services
▲ +13.5% year-on-year
USD 19,944.6M
Total Imports of Goods & Services
▲ +15.5% year-on-year
USD 7,661.7M
Services Receipts (Yr Apr-26)
▲ +10.4% year-on-year
USD 4,385.3M
Travel (Tourism) Receipts
▲ +9.5% year-on-year
USD 5,722.5M
Gross Forex Reserves
4.4 months import cover
1
External Sector Overview & Current Account Balance
Tanzania's external sector performance in the year ending April 2026 reflects a tension between a robust export growth story — led by gold and tourism — and an equally robust import surge driven by industrial supplies, transport equipment, and capital goods. The net result is a widening current account deficit of USD 2,651.8 million, compared with USD 2,107.1 million in the corresponding period in 2025 — a deterioration of 25.6%.
On a monthly basis, the April 2026 current account deficit was USD 838.4 million — nearly double the USD 437.3 million recorded in April 2025 — reflecting a sharp single-month goods import surge of USD 1,751.3 million against goods exports of USD 788.0 million. Despite this, foreign exchange reserves remained well-buffered at USD 5,722.5 million (4.4 months of projected imports), providing a solid external buffer.
Current Account Structure — Year Ending April 2026 (USD Millions)
Goods Exports
+11,215.0
↑ +15.8% YoY
+
Services Receipts
+7,661.7
↑ +10.4% YoY
=
Total Exports (G&S)
18,876.7
↑ +13.5% YoY
Goods Imports
−16,568.5
↑ +16.4% YoY
+
Services Payments
−3,376.1
↑ +11.3% YoY
=
Total Imports (G&S)
−19,944.6
↑ +15.5% YoY
G&S Balance
−1,067.9
vs −645.6M (Apr-25)
+
Primary Income
−1,852.0
↓ improved −7.3% YoY
+
Secondary Income
+268.1
↓ −49.6% YoY
=
Current Account Balance
−2,651.8
↑ +25.6% wider YoY
Key Concern: The secondary income account surplus collapsed from USD 531.9M to USD 268.1M (−49.6%), mainly due to a sharp decline in personal transfers. This structural deterioration, combined with robust import growth, is widening the current account gap faster than export gains can offset it.
Current Account Balance — Monthly Trend (USD Millions)
Source: BOT MER May 2026, Table 2.7.1
Goods & Services Trade Balance — Year Ending April (USD Millions)
Source: BOT MER May 2026, Table 2.7.1 & Table A5
2
Current Account: Full Component Analysis
Current Account — Full Breakdown (USD Millions)
Item
Apr-25 (Monthly)
Mar-26 (Monthly)
Apr-26 (Monthly)
Yr Apr-2024
Yr Apr-2025
Yr Apr-2026p
% Change 25→26
A. GOODS ACCOUNT
Goods Account (Net)
−461.1
−596.6
−963.3
−5,979.9
−4,553.6
−5,353.5
+17.6
Exports of Goods (f.o.b.)
649.9
815.0
788.0
7,815.8
9,682.7
11,215.0
+15.8
Imports of Goods (f.o.b.)
1,111.0
1,411.6
1,751.3
13,795.7
14,236.3
16,568.5
+16.4
B. SERVICES ACCOUNT
Services Account (Net)
+218.6
+266.0
+237.3
4,151.4
3,908.0
4,285.6
+9.7
Services Receipts (Exports)
493.8
551.9
525.8
6,466.0
6,942.3
7,661.7
+10.4
Services Payments (Imports)
275.3
285.8
288.5
2,314.6
3,034.2
3,376.1
+11.3
C. GOODS & SERVICES COMBINED
G&S Balance (Net)
−242.5
−330.6
−726.0
−1,828.5
−645.6
−1,067.9
+65.4
Total Exports (G&S)
1,143.8
1,366.9
1,313.8
14,281.7
16,625.0
18,876.7
+13.5
Total Imports (G&S)
1,386.3
1,697.5
2,039.7
16,110.2
17,270.5
19,944.6
+15.5
D. PRIMARY & SECONDARY INCOME
Primary Income Account
−223.7
−135.0
−132.6
−1,608.4
−1,998.4
−1,852.0
−7.3
Secondary Income Account
+28.9
+21.2
+20.2
667.8
531.9
268.1
−49.6
CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE
−437.3
−444.4
−838.4
−2,769.1
−2,112.1
−2,651.8
+25.6
Source: Tanzania Revenue Authority, Banks, and Bank of Tanzania calculations. p = provisional
Current Account Components — Year Ending April 2026 (USD Millions)
Source: BOT MER May 2026, Table 2.7.1
Current Account Deficit Trend — Year Ending April (USD Millions)
Source: BOT MER May 2026, Table A5
3
Services Receipts by Category — Exports of Services
Tanzania's services receipts are a major pillar of its external earnings, contributing USD 7,661.7 million in the year ending April 2026 — equivalent to 40.6% of total exports of goods and services. This represents a 10.4% year-on-year increase from USD 6,942.3 million. Services receipts are structured across three principal categories: Travel (Tourism), Transport, and Other Services.
Travel receipts dominate the services account, contributing 57.2% of total service receipts. The travel category grew by 9.5% to USD 4,385.3 million, supported by a meaningful increase in international tourist arrivals to 2,281,340 in the year ending April 2026, from 2,162,487 in the corresponding period in 2025 — a gain of 118,853 additional arrivals (+5.5%). Transport receipts, reflecting earnings from logistics and transit services, grew robustly to USD 2,834.8 million (+17.1%).
USD 7,661.7MTotal Services Receipts▲ +10.4% YoY
USD 4,385.3MTravel (Tourism)▲ +9.5% YoY
USD 2,834.8MTransport Receipts▲ +17.1% YoY
USD 441.6MOther Services▼ −14.5% YoY
2,281,340Tourist Arrivals (Yr Apr-26)▲ +5.5% YoY
Services Receipts by Category — Year Ending April (USD Millions)
Source: Banks and BOT computations, Chart 2.7.3 / Table 2.7.1
Services Receipts Composition — April 2026 (%)
Source: BOT MER May 2026. Based on year ending April 2026 data.
Services Receipts — Detailed Annual Data (USD Millions)
Category
2024 Yr Apr
2025 Yr Apr
2026p Yr Apr
Change 25→26
Share 2026 % of Total
Apr-25 Monthly
Mar-26 Monthly
Apr-26 Monthly
Travel (Tourism)Largest
4,006.3
4,006.3
4,385.3
+9.5%
57.2%
—
—
—
Transport2nd
2,419.3
2,419.3
2,834.8
+17.1%
37.0%
—
—
—
Other Services
516.7
516.7
441.6
−14.5%
5.8%
—
—
—
Total Services Receipts
6,942.3
6,942.3
7,661.7
+10.4%
100%
493.8
551.9
525.8
Source: Banks and Bank of Tanzania computations. Data from Chart 2.7.3. Other services include construction, insurance, financial, telecommunication, computer and information, charges for use of intellectual property, government, personal, and other business services.
3a. Travel (Tourism) Receipts
Travel receipts remain Tanzania's single largest services export earner and a critical driver of foreign exchange inflows. In the year ending April 2026, travel receipts grew by 9.5% to reach USD 4,385.3 million, from USD 4,006.3 million in the corresponding period of 2025. International arrivals rose to 2,281,340 from 2,162,487 — a growth of 5.5%. This suggests that average revenue per visitor also increased, rising from approximately USD 1,853 to USD 1,922 — reflecting improvements in higher-value visitor segments and spending per tourist.
On a monthly basis, service receipts were USD 525.8 million in April 2026, higher than USD 493.8 million in April 2025. Travel has consistently accounted for approximately 57% of total service receipts over the year ending April 2026.
Travel Receipts Trend — Year Ending April (USD Millions)
Source: Banks and BOT computations, Chart 2.7.3
Tourism Performance Indicators
Indicator
Yr Apr-2024
Yr Apr-2025
Yr Apr-2026p
Change
Travel Receipts (USD M)
3,589.9
4,006.3
4,385.3
+9.5%
International Arrivals
—
2,162,487
2,281,340
+5.5%
Revenue per Arrival (USD)
—
~1,853
~1,922
+3.7%
Travel as % of Service Receipts
57.0%
57.7%
57.2%
Stable
Travel as % of Total Exports
~28%
~24.1%
~23.2%
Share declining
Monthly Service Receipts Apr-26 (USD M)
—
493.8
525.8
+6.5%
Source: BOT MER May 2026. Revenue per Arrival is TICGL computation.
Tourism Outlook: Food inflation is expected to moderate from May 2026 as the harvest season begins, which should ease cost pressures on hospitality. However, rising global fuel prices could increase airfare costs and deter some visitors. Zanzibar's tourist arrivals grew even faster at 21.7% (944,056 arrivals), indicating strong sub-national performance and diversification of tourist destinations.
3b. Transport Receipts
Transport receipts — Tanzania's second-largest services export — grew strongly by 17.1% to USD 2,834.8 million in the year ending April 2026, from USD 2,419.3 million in 2025. This category covers earnings from Tanzania's role as a regional transit hub, including port services at Dar es Salaam port (one of East Africa's busiest), railway freight services, and civil aviation transit revenues.
The strong growth in transport receipts reflects the expansion in goods trade volumes flowing through Tanzania to landlocked neighbors (Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, DRC, Zambia, and Malawi), as well as higher freight rates globally due to geopolitical supply chain disruptions. Transport receipts now account for 37.0% of total service receipts.
Transport Receipts — Year Ending April (USD Millions)
Source: Banks and BOT computations, Chart 2.7.3
Transport vs Travel Share of Service Receipts (% of Total)
Source: BOT MER May 2026 — TICGL computation
3c. Other Services Receipts
Other services receipts — comprising construction, insurance, financial, telecommunication, computer and information, charges for use of intellectual property, government, personal, and other business services — declined by 14.5% to USD 441.6 million in the year ending April 2026, from USD 516.7 million in 2025. This contraction is notable and warrants attention, as it may reflect a weakening in knowledge-economy service exports or a decline in remittance-adjacent flows classified here.
Despite the decline, this category represents only 5.8% of total service receipts, limiting the overall impact on the services balance. Tanzania's services export basket remains heavily concentrated in travel and transport — a structural consideration for long-term diversification policy.
4
Services Payments by Category — Imports of Services
Services payments (imports of services) reached USD 3,376.1 million in the year ending April 2026, an increase of 11.3% from USD 3,034.2 million in 2025. The growth in services payments has outpaced services receipts growth in some sub-categories, narrowing the services trade surplus. The three main components are: Freight (transport payments), Travel (Tanzanians travelling abroad), and Other Services (business, professional, and technical services).
Freight payments — the largest component at USD 1,666.2 million — grew sharply by 16.8%, directly linked to the surge in goods imports (+16.4%). Travel payments rose significantly by 39.9% to USD 702.2 million, signaling a meaningful recovery in outbound Tanzanian travel after pandemic-era suppression. Other services payments grew moderately by 4.5% to USD 1,007.7 million.
USD 3,376.1MTotal Services Payments▲ +11.3% YoY
USD 1,666.2MFreight Payments▲ +16.8% YoY
USD 702.2MTravel Payments▲ +39.9% YoY
USD 1,007.7MOther Services Payments▲ +4.5% YoY
USD 288.5MMonthly Payments (Apr-26)▲ from USD 275.3M (Apr-25)
Services Payments by Category — Year Ending April (USD Millions)
Source: Banks and BOT computations, Chart 2.7.5
Services Payments Composition — Year Ending April 2026 (%)
Source: BOT MER May 2026
Services Payments — Detailed Annual Data (USD Millions)
Category
2024 Yr Apr
2025 Yr Apr
2026p Yr Apr
Change 25→26
Share 2026 % of Total
Apr-25 Monthly
Mar-26 Monthly
Apr-26 Monthly
Freight (Transport)Largest
1,276.2
1,426.5
1,666.2
+16.8%
49.4%
—
—
—
Travel (Outbound)
643.1
964.6
702.2
−27.2%*
20.8%
—
—
—
Other Services
370.8
667.6
1,007.7
+51.0%
29.8%
—
—
—
Total Services Payments
2,314.6
3,034.2
3,376.1
+11.3%
100%
275.3
285.8
288.5
Source: Banks and Bank of Tanzania computations, Chart 2.7.5 and Table 2.7.1. *Travel payments in 2025 (Yr Apr) appear elevated vs 2026 based on chart data; change reflects comparison against 2025 data from Chart 2.7.5 (USD 964.6M in 2025 vs 702.2M in 2026 — a notable decline). Other services grew significantly. See full BoP Table A5 for annual reconciliation.
4a. Freight (Transport) Payments
Freight payments represent the cost Tanzania pays for shipping and logistics services on its imports — largely to international shipping companies. At USD 1,666.2 million, freight constitutes 49.4% of total services payments, making it by far the dominant outflow in the services import account. The 16.8% increase in freight costs directly mirrors the 16.4% growth in goods imports — as more goods are imported, more freight is paid.
The sharp rise in global freight rates due to Red Sea shipping disruptions and port congestion (linked to Middle East geopolitical tensions) has amplified this cost. In April 2026 specifically, services payments reached USD 288.5 million monthly, of which freight constitutes the majority. This structural exposure to global freight rates is a key external vulnerability for Tanzania's services balance.
4b. Travel (Outbound) Payments
Travel payments — representing expenditure by Tanzanian residents travelling abroad — show an interesting pattern. From Chart 2.7.5 data (year ending April), travel payments were USD 643.1 million in 2024 and appeared elevated in 2025. In the year ending April 2026, travel payments recorded USD 702.2 million. This outbound travel spend reflects growing middle-class travel, medical tourism abroad, business travel, and student travel. While much smaller than inbound travel receipts (USD 4,385.3 million), the gap represents a healthy net travel surplus of USD 3,683.1 million.
4c. Other Services Payments
Other services payments grew sharply to USD 1,007.7 million in the year ending April 2026, from USD 667.6 million — a 51.0% increase. This category covers payments for construction, insurance, financial services, telecommunications, information technology, professional and business services, and government services paid to foreign providers. The strong growth reflects Tanzania's increasing integration into global value chains, rising demand for imported professional and digital services, and higher insurance premiums linked to elevated global commodity and energy risks.
Services Payments Trend — Year Ending April (USD Millions)
Tanzania maintains a structural services trade surplus — a relatively uncommon position among Sub-Saharan African economies — primarily because travel (tourism) receipts far exceed outbound travel payments. The services account surplus for the year ending April 2026 was USD 4,285.6 million, up from USD 3,908.0 million in 2025 (+9.7%).
However, within the services account, the net travel surplus is contracting relative to size as outbound travel grows, and the surge in freight payments and other services payments is eroding the headline services surplus. The services surplus of USD 4,285.6 million partially offsets the goods deficit of USD 5,353.5 million, resulting in a combined goods-and-services deficit of USD 1,067.9 million.
✅ Services Receipts (Inflows)
Travel (Tourism)USD 4,385.3M
TransportUSD 2,834.8M
Other ServicesUSD 441.6M
TOTAL RECEIPTSUSD 7,661.7M
vs
❌ Services Payments (Outflows)
Freight (Transport)USD 1,666.2M
Travel (Outbound)USD 702.2M
Other ServicesUSD 1,007.7M
TOTAL PAYMENTSUSD 3,376.1M
Net Services Surplus: USD 4,285.6 million — Tanzania earns USD 4.3 billion more from services exports than it pays for services imports. This surplus is critical to offset the USD 5.4 billion goods trade deficit and keep the overall current account deficit from widening further.
Services Trade Balance — Year Ending April (USD Millions)
Source: BOT MER May 2026, Table 2.7.1 and Table A5
Receipts vs Payments — Year Ending April 2026 (USD Millions)
Source: BOT MER May 2026 — TICGL breakdown
Services Account Summary — Year Ending April 2021–2026 (USD Millions)
Year
Services Receipts
Services Payments
Net Services Balance
Receipts Growth
Payments Growth
Year Ending Apr-2021
3,117.7
1,607.0
+1,510.7
—
—
Year Ending Apr-2022
4,762.0
2,465.4
+2,296.6
+52.7%
+53.4%
Year Ending Apr-2023
6,231.7
2,395.9
+3,835.8
+30.8%
−2.8%
Year Ending Apr-2024
6,846.8
2,795.0
+4,051.8
+9.9%
+16.7%
Year Ending Apr-2025
6,942.3
3,034.2
+3,908.1
+1.4%
+8.5%
Year Ending Apr-2026p
7,661.7
3,376.1
+4,285.6
+10.4%
+11.3%
Source: BOT MER May 2026, Table A5 (historical balance of payments). p = provisional
6
Foreign Exchange Reserves & Exchange Rate
Despite the widening current account deficit, Tanzania's foreign exchange reserves remained robust and adequate. At the end of April 2026, gross official reserves stood at USD 5,722.5 million, compared with USD 5,307.7 million in April 2025 — an increase of USD 414.8 million (+7.8%). This level provides coverage of 4.4 months of projected imports, consistent with both Tanzania's national benchmark and the EAC regional minimum of 4.5 months (being just marginally below, but well above the SADC minimum).
The Tanzanian shilling remained strong against major currencies. In April 2026, the shilling traded at an average of TZS 2,612.46 per USD, compared with TZS 2,684.41 per USD in April 2025 — an annual appreciation of 2.7%. This appreciation was supported by sustained gold export inflows and the Bank of Tanzania's measured market participation, selling USD 15.3 million in April 2026 to maintain orderly market conditions.
USD 5,722.5MGross Forex Reserves (Apr-26)▲ +7.8% from Apr-25
TICGL View: Tanzania's external sector in 2026 tells a dual story. On the positive side, the country is earning more from tourism, gold, and transit services than at any point in its recent history — a direct payoff from infrastructure investment and tourism marketing. On the challenge side, the import surge driven by capital goods and industrial supplies reflects genuine productive investment, but when combined with rising freight costs from global disruptions and declining secondary income, it produces a widening current account gap. The key policy watch-point is whether the investment-driven import surge translates into increased productive capacity and export competitiveness over the medium term — which would close the current account gap from the export side. Reserves at USD 5.7 billion provide a comfortable 12–18 month cushion against external shocks.
Related TICGL Resources
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Tanzania Economic Review May 2026: Inflation, Financial Markets & Debt | TICGL
TICGL Economic Intelligence
Tanzania Economic Review: Inflation, Financial Markets & External Sector — May 2026
A comprehensive analysis of Tanzania's macroeconomic performance drawn from the Bank of Tanzania Monthly Economic Review (May 2026) and the NBS National Consumer Price Index (December 2025), with a special focus on Government Securities Markets and the Interbank Cash Market.
📅 Published: June 2026📊 Sources: Bank of Tanzania | National Bureau of Statistics🏢 TICGL Research
4.0%
Headline Inflation (Apr 2026)
▲ from 3.2% (Mar 2026)
3.1%
Core Inflation (Apr 2026)
▲ from 2.2% (Mar 2026)
5.75%
Central Bank Rate
Held Q2 2026
5.06%
T-Bill Weighted Avg Yield
▼ from 5.21% (Mar 2026)
TZS 2,612
USD/TZS (Apr 2026)
▼ 2.7% yr/yr appreciation
USD 5,722M
Gross Forex Reserves
4.4 months import cover
1
Global Economic Context
The global economy entered Q2 2026 with underlying resilience but faced mounting headwinds from geopolitical tensions, energy market volatility, and a slowdown in cross-border trade. According to the IMF's April 2026 World Economic Outlook and the World Bank's May 2026 Economic Prospects Report, global growth is projected to moderate to between 2.5% and 3.1% in 2026 — down from earlier forecasts.
In April 2026, global crude oil prices surged sharply from USD 95.58 per barrel in March 2026 to a monthly average of USD 103.91 per barrel, with the highest single-month price reaching USD 117.80 per barrel. This was primarily driven by geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East and supply-side disruptions. Global inflation projections were also revised upward to 4.4% in 2026, from 3.8% forecast in January 2026.
Key Risk for Tanzania: Rising global oil prices and fertilizer costs (DAP and UREA increased significantly) create cost-push pressures for Tanzania, a commodity-importing economy. The IMF April 2026 WEO downgraded the global growth forecast to 3.1% (from 3.3% in January 2026); the World Bank's outlook is more pessimistic at 2.5%.
Global Commodity Prices — Selected (USD, April 2026)
Commodity
Value
Unit
Mar 2026
Crude Oil (Average)
103.91
USD/bbl
95.58
Crude Oil (Brent)
120.42
USD/bbl
103.69
Gold
4,721.42
USD/troy oz
4,855.54
Palm Oil
1,148.04
USD/kg
1,108.61
Wheat (Hard)
282.00
USD/tonne
275.91
Coffee Arabica
7.30
USD/kg
7.37
Coffee Robusta
3.63
USD/kg
3.90
DAP Fertilizer
725.25
USD/tonne
658.25
UREA Fertilizer
856.88
USD/tonne
725.63
Source: World Bank Commodity Markets, April 2026
Crude Oil Price Trend (Monthly Average, USD/bbl)
Source: World Bank / BOT MER May 2026
2
Inflation Developments — Mainland Tanzania (April 2026)
Headline annual inflation rose to 4.0% in April 2026, up from 3.2% in both March 2026 and April 2025. The Bank of Tanzania attributes this rise to pass-through effects of rising global fuel prices driven by the ongoing geopolitical conflict in the Middle East. Despite this acceleration, inflation remains within Tanzania's national target as well as within SADC and EAC regional benchmarks.
Core inflation — which excludes unprocessed food, energy, and utilities — increased significantly to 3.1% from 2.2% in March 2026 and 2.2% in April 2025, largely driven by higher transportation costs and furnishings/household equipment prices. Annual food inflation reached 5.7% in April 2026, higher than 5.5% in March and 5.3% in April 2025, driven by wheat, rice, and maize price increases.
4.0%Headline (Apr 2026)
3.1%Core Inflation
5.7%Food Inflation
5.3%Energy/Fuel/Utilities
6.3%Non-Core Inflation
3.3%All Items ex-Food
Headline Inflation Trend — Monthly (2025–2026)
Source: NBS, Bank of Tanzania MER May 2026
Inflation Components — April 2026 vs March 2026 vs April 2025
Source: BOT MER May 2026, Table 2.1.1
Inflation by COICOP Division — April 2026 (Annual %)
Division
Weight (%)
Apr-25 (M-o-M %)
Mar-26 (M-o-M %)
Apr-26 (M-o-M %)
Apr-25 Annual
Mar-26 Annual
Apr-26 Annual
Food & Non-Alcoholic Bev.
28.2
0.7
1.8
0.9
5.3
5.5
5.7
Alcoholic Bev. & Tobacco
1.9
0.1
0.1
0.3
3.4
2.1
2.3
Clothing & Footwear
10.8
0.0
0.5
0.3
2.0
1.3
1.6
Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas
15.1
0.8
0.7
0.9
3.8
1.6
1.7
Furnishings & HH Maintenance
7.9
0.2
0.1
0.4
2.3
2.3
2.6
Health
2.5
0.2
0.4
0.6
1.5
1.1
1.6
Transport
14.1
0.4
0.5
5.2
2.1
4.2
9.2
Information & Communication
5.4
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
1.0
1.0
Recreation, Sport & Culture
1.6
0.1
0.1
0.3
1.7
0.6
0.7
Education Services
2.0
0.0
0.6
1.6
4.1
0.9
2.6
Restaurants & Accommodation
6.6
0.3
0.4
0.1
1.6
2.1
1.8
Insurance & Financial Services
2.1
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.8
0.3
0.1
Personal Care & Miscellaneous
2.1
0.1
0.3
0.2
3.0
3.3
3.5
ALL ITEMS (Headline)
100.0
0.4
0.8
1.3
3.2
3.2
4.0
Source: NBS and Bank of Tanzania computations. M-o-M = Month-on-Month
Key Driver — Transport (9.2% annual): The transport division recorded the sharpest annual acceleration — from 4.2% in March to 9.2% in April 2026 — reflecting a 5.2% month-on-month jump driven by rising domestic fuel pump prices, a direct pass-through from Middle East geopolitical tensions. This single category, with a 14.1% basket weight, is the dominant contributor to the headline acceleration.
3
CPI Detailed Analysis — December 2025 (NBS NCPI)
The NBS Press Release for December 2025 provides the baseline for understanding Tanzania's inflation trajectory. The annual headline inflation rate for December 2025 reached 3.6%, slightly up from 3.4% in November 2025. The overall NCPI rose from 116.87 in December 2024 to 121.11 in December 2025, reflecting modest but steady price level increases throughout the year.
Comparing the full year 2024 and 2025: the annual average headline rate rose from 3.1% to 3.3%. Most notably, food inflation surged from 2.1% to 6.4%, while non-food inflation declined from 3.5% to 2.0%, suggesting that inflationary pressure in 2025 was concentrated in volatile food and non-core components rather than underlying monetary drivers.
NCPI Monthly Trend — Dec 2024 to Dec 2025 (Index & Inflation Rate)
Source: NBS NCPI Press Release, January 2026. Base 2020=100
Annual Average Inflation by Category — 2024 vs 2025
Source: NBS NCPI Press Release — Chart 2
NCPI by Main Groups — December 2025 (2020 = 100)
Main Group
Weight (%)
Dec 2024
Nov 2025
Dec 2025
1-Month % Chg
12-Month % Chg
Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages
28.2
124.27
129.98
132.56
+2.0
+6.7
Alcoholic Bev. & Tobacco
1.9
110.33
113.67
114.08
+0.4
+3.4
Clothing & Footwear
10.8
113.17
115.26
115.46
+0.2
+2.0
Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas
15.1
115.59
117.70
118.27
+0.5
+2.3
Furnishings & HH Maintenance
7.9
114.38
117.61
117.81
+0.2
+3.0
Health
2.5
108.43
109.70
109.79
+0.1
+1.3
Transport
14.1
118.37
121.50
123.19
+1.4
+4.1
Information & Communication
5.4
106.16
106.49
106.70
+0.2
+0.5
Recreation, Sport & Culture
1.6
110.54
110.89
110.82
-0.1
+0.3
Education Services
2.0
108.84
112.01
112.01
0.0
+2.9
Restaurants & Accommodation
6.6
116.39
117.49
117.48
0.0
+0.9
Insurance & Financial Services
2.1
101.92
102.27
102.34
+0.1
+0.4
Personal Care & Miscellaneous
2.1
116.64
118.40
118.09
-0.3
+1.2
TOTAL – ALL ITEMS
100.0
116.87
120.01
121.11
+0.9
+3.6
Supplementary Index Groups — December 2025
Index
Weight (%)
Dec 2024
Nov 2025
Dec 2025
1-Month %
12-Month %
Core Index
73.9
114.45
116.77
117.26
+0.4
+2.5
Non-Core Index
26.1
123.73
129.21
132.04
+2.2
+6.7
Energy, Fuel & Utilities
5.7
125.25
129.33
131.02
+1.3
+4.6
Services Index
37.2
111.81
113.49
114.03
+0.5
+2.0
Goods Index
62.8
119.86
123.87
125.31
+1.2
+4.5
Education Services & Products
4.1
111.82
114.31
114.25
-0.1
+2.2
All Items Less Food & Non-Alc. Bev.
71.82
113.96
116.09
116.62
+0.5
+2.3
Source: NBS NCPI Press Release, January 8, 2026
4
Monetary Policy & Money Supply
At its April 2026 meeting, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) resolved to maintain the Central Bank Rate (CBR) at 5.75% for the quarter ending June 2026. This decision balanced the need to manage rising inflationary pressures from fuel prices while supporting Tanzania's economic growth trajectory. Importantly, the MPC also narrowed the CBR corridor from 200 basis points to 150 basis points, intending to strengthen monetary policy effectiveness.
The 7-day IBCM rate averaged 6.15% in April 2026, remaining within the CBR corridor. Banks' demand for reverse repo decreased to TZS 379.7 billion in April 2026, from TZS 585.7 billion in March 2026, reflecting improved liquidity conditions.
Extended broad money supply (M3) grew by 22% in April 2026, broadly consistent with the preceding month's 23.2%, largely driven by sustained growth in credit to the private sector.
Money Supply Growth — Annual % (Apr 2025 vs Mar 2026 vs Apr 2026)
Source: Bank of Tanzania and Banks
Money Supply Components — Stock (TZS Billions, April 2026)
Item
Apr-25
Mar-26
Apr-26
YoY %
Extended Broad Money (M3)
53,337.7
64,246.7
65,091.9
+22.0
Broad Money (M2)
39,491.4
49,248.3
50,102.9
+26.9
Narrow Money (M1)
24,013.1
30,176.9
31,151.6
+29.7
Reserve Money (M0)
11,878.9
14,998.9
15,670.5
+31.9
Foreign Currency Deposits
13,846.3
14,998.4
14,989.0
+8.3
Private Sector Credit
38,755.8
47,216.5
47,919.3
+23.6
Currency in Circulation
7,024.1
8,078.3
8,107.1
+15.4
Source: BOT MER May 2026, Table 2.2.1
Annual Growth of Credit to Select Economic Activities (%)
Source: Banks and Bank of Tanzania, Table 2.2.2
5
Financial Markets: Government Securities & Interbank Cash Market
Focus Section: This section provides detailed analysis of Tanzania's Government Securities Market (Treasury Bills and Treasury Bonds) and the Interbank Cash Market (IBCM) for April 2026 — key barometers of the country's financial system liquidity, investor confidence, and monetary transmission.
5a. Government Securities Market
The government securities market remained active and robust in April 2026, supported by sustained investor demand and adequate liquidity in the economy. The Bank of Tanzania conducted two Treasury bill auctions with a combined tender size of TZS 429.8 billion. Both auctions were significantly oversubscribed, attracting total bids of TZS 859.5 billion — nearly double the offer — of which TZS 450.4 billion were successful. The bid-to-cover ratio of approximately 2.0x signals strong investor appetite for Tanzanian government paper.
In line with strong demand, the overall weighted average yield on Treasury bills declined slightly to 5.06% from 5.21% in March 2026, indicating improved market confidence and downward pressure on short-term borrowing costs.
For Treasury bonds, the Bank conducted 5-year and 10-year auctions with tender sizes of TZS 174.9 billion and TZS 144.6 billion respectively. Both were oversubscribed, registering total bids of TZS 408.3 billion, with TZS 291.3 billion accepted. Weighted average yields declined to 9.54% for the 5-year bond and 9.40% for the 10-year bond — indicating falling long-term yields despite rising short-term inflationary pressures, reflecting investor trust in Tanzania's debt servicing capacity.
TZS 429.8BT-Bill Offer Size
TZS 859.5BTotal Bids Received
TZS 450.4BBids Accepted
5.06%Overall WAY (T-Bills)
9.54%5-Year Bond Yield
9.40%10-Year Bond Yield
Treasury Bill Yields Trend — By Tenor (2025–Apr 2026, %)
Source: BOT MER May 2026, Table A4 — Interest Rates Structure
Treasury Bond Yields — By Maturity (Mar–Apr 2026, %)
Source: BOT MER May 2026, Table A4
Treasury Bill Auction Performance Summary — April 2026
Auction Item
Value (TZS Billions)
Remarks
Combined T-Bill Offer (Tender Size)
429.8
Two auctions conducted
Total Bids Received
859.5
~2.0x oversubscribed
Successful Bids Accepted
450.4
105% of offer taken up
Overall Weighted Average Yield (WAY)
5.06%
▼ from 5.21% (Mar 2026)
Treasury Bond Auction Performance — April 2026
Bond Tenor
Tender Size (TZS B)
Bids Received (TZS B)
Accepted (TZS B)
WAY (%)
5-Year Treasury Bond
174.9
—
—
9.54
10-Year Treasury Bond
144.6
—
—
9.40
Combined Total
319.5
408.3
291.3
—
Source: BOT MER May 2026, Section 2.4 — Government Securities Market
Full Treasury Bill & Bond Yield Structure — Trend (2025–2026, %)
Instrument
Apr-25
Jun-25
Sep-25
Dec-25
Jan-26
Feb-26
Mar-26
Apr-26
35-Day T-Bill
6.50
6.50
6.20
5.38
5.36
4.75
4.20
3.81
91-Day T-Bill
7.50
7.50
6.81
5.93
5.73
4.97
4.23
4.02
182-Day T-Bill
8.47
8.24
6.56
5.91
5.85
5.85
5.69
5.46
364-Day T-Bill
8.92
8.92
5.99
6.24
6.21
6.20
5.80
5.72
Overall T-Bill WAY
8.86
8.89
6.03
5.87
5.89
5.68
5.21
5.06
2-Year T-Bond
12.08
12.08
12.17
10.05
10.05
10.05
8.36
8.36
5-Year T-Bond
13.14
12.94
12.48
10.54
10.54
10.54
10.54
9.54
10-Year T-Bond
14.26
14.26
13.74
12.45
11.30
11.30
11.30
9.40
15-Year T-Bond
14.63
14.63
13.91
12.08
12.08
10.78
10.78
10.78
20-Year T-Bond
15.11
14.50
13.55
12.02
12.02
12.02
10.71
10.71
25-Year T-Bond
15.84
14.80
13.19
13.19
13.19
11.99
11.99
11.99
Source: BOT MER May 2026, Table A4 — Interest Rates Structure. WAY = Weighted Average Yield
Yield Curve — Tanzania Government Securities (April 2026, %)
Source: BOT MER May 2026, Table A4. Plotted from 35-day to 25-year tenor.
5b. Interbank Cash Market (IBCM)
The Interbank Cash Market (IBCM) continued to serve its core function of redistributing liquidity across banks. Total IBCM market turnover in April 2026 was TZS 2,708.5 billion, marginally higher than TZS 2,699.5 billion in March 2026. The 7-day tenor dominated market activity, accounting for 60.5% of total transactions.
The overall IBCM rate rose to 7.32% in April 2026, up from 6.32% in March 2026. The 7-day IBCM rate averaged 6.15%, within the CBR corridor. This uptick in the IBCM rate reflects the tighter liquidity conditions as oil-driven inflationary pressures fed into interbank pricing.
The overnight IBCM rate stood at 6.15% in April 2026, compared to 6.17% in March 2026, showing relative stability in the very short end of the interbank curve.
Source: BOT MER May 2026, Table A4. Note: The overall IBCM rate of 6.26% differs from the 7.32% headline figure for total IBCM; 7.32% includes weighted volumes across all tenors in April 2026.
Financial Market Assessment: Tanzania's financial markets demonstrate solid institutional strength. T-bill and bond auctions remain consistently oversubscribed (2.0x bid-to-cover), and yields are declining across the curve — signalling investor confidence. The IBCM provides effective short-term liquidity redistribution, with the 7-day tenor dominating at 60.5%. The modest rise in the overall IBCM rate in April 2026 primarily reflects fuel-driven cost pressures rather than fundamental liquidity stress.
6
Interest Rates Structure
Interest rates remained broadly unchanged in April 2026, with modest upward adjustments in both lending and deposit rates. The overall lending rate increased to 15.33% from 15.11% in March 2026, while negotiated lending rates for prime customers rose to 12.56% from 12.21%. The overall deposit rate edged up to 8.54% from 8.33%, while the spread between one-year lending and deposit rates narrowed to 5.50 percentage points from 5.85 points in March 2026 — a modestly positive development for credit access.
Revenue collection remained strong. The Government collected a total of TZS 3,836.9 billion in March 2026, which was 8.5% above the monthly target. Central government revenue reached TZS 3,703.3 billion — 9.3% above target. Tax revenue amounted to TZS 3,317.5 billion, exceeding the target by 10.8%, driven primarily by income taxes which surpassed their target by 17.2%.
Total government expenditure was TZS 4,273.4 billion in March 2026, comprising TZS 2,545.3 billion in recurrent expenditure and TZS 1,728.1 billion in development expenditure.
Government Revenue — March 2026 (TZS Billions)
Source: Ministry of Finance / BOT MER May 2026
Government Expenditure — March 2026 (TZS Billions)
Source: Ministry of Finance / BOT MER May 2026
8
National Debt Developments — April 2026
The national debt stock reached USD 51,067.2 million at the end of April 2026, a 0.5% increase from March. External debt comprised 70.4% of the total, standing at USD 35,949.6 million. Of this, 82.7% was public external debt. Multilateral institutions continued to hold the largest share of external debt creditors at 58.3%, followed by commercial lenders at 34.3%.
The domestic debt stock reached TZS 39,335.8 billion, a 2.3% increase from March 2026, mainly due to utilization of the overdraft facility. Government bonds constitute the dominant instrument at 80.8% of domestic debt stock.
External Debt by Creditor — April 2026 (USD Millions)
Source: Ministry of Finance and BOT, Table 2.6.2
Domestic Debt by Instrument — April 2026 (TZS Billions)
Source: Ministry of Finance and BOT, Table 2.6.5
Disbursed Outstanding External Debt by Use of Funds (% Share)
Sector
Apr-25 (%)
Mar-26 (%)
Apr-26 (%)
Balance of Payments & Budget Support
20.7
22.3
22.3
Transport & Telecommunication
21.5
22.3
22.4
Social Welfare & Education
20.2
19.2
19.3
Energy & Mining
12.9
12.0
12.0
Agriculture
5.0
5.3
5.3
Real Estate & Construction
4.8
5.1
5.1
Finance & Insurance
4.2
3.6
3.6
Industries
3.5
3.7
3.7
Tourism
1.8
1.8
1.8
Other
5.5
4.8
4.5
Total
100.0
100.0
100.0
Source: Ministry of Finance and Bank of Tanzania, Table 2.6.3
9
External Sector Performance — Year Ending April 2026
The current account deficit widened to USD 2,651.8 million in the year ending April 2026, compared with USD 2,107.1 million in the corresponding period in 2025. This was primarily driven by robust import growth (15.5%) that outpaced export gains. Despite the wider deficit, foreign exchange reserves remained adequate at USD 5,722.5 million, sufficient to cover 4.4 months of projected imports — consistent with both national benchmarks and EAC requirements.
Exports grew by 13.5% to USD 18,876.7 million, led by strong gold export performance and higher travel receipts. Gold exports alone reached USD 5,268.9 million, up from USD 3,821.2 million in 2025 — a remarkable 37.9% increase. The Tanzanian shilling appreciated by 2.7% year-on-year against the USD, trading at an average of TZS 2,612.46 per USD in April 2026.
USD 2,651.8MCurrent Acct Deficit
USD 18,876.7MTotal Exports (yr/Apr)
USD 19,944.6MTotal Imports (yr/Apr)
USD 5,268.9MGold Exports
USD 5,722.5MGross Forex Reserves
TZS 2,612USD/TZS (Apr 2026)
Exports of Goods & Services — Year Ending April (USD Millions)
Source: TRA and BOT computations, Table 2.7.1
Imports of Goods — by Category (USD Millions, Year Apr 2025 vs 2026)
Source: TRA and BOT computations, Table A7
Current Account Summary (USD Millions)
Item
Apr-25
Mar-26
Apr-26
Yr Apr-2025
Yr Apr-2026p
% Chg
Goods Account (Net)
-461.1
-596.6
-963.3
-4,553.6
-5,353.5
+17.6
Exports of Goods
649.9
815.0
788.0
9,682.7
11,215.0
+15.8
Imports of Goods
1,111.0
1,411.6
1,751.3
14,236.3
16,568.5
+16.4
Services Account (Net)
218.6
266.0
237.3
3,908.0
4,285.6
+9.7
Primary Income Account
-223.7
-135.0
-132.6
-1,998.4
-1,852.0
-7.3
Secondary Income Account
28.9
21.2
20.2
531.9
268.1
-49.6
Current Account Balance
-437.3
-444.4
-838.4
-2,112.1
-2,651.8
+25.6
Source: TRA, Banks, and BOT calculations. p = provisional
10
Zanzibar Economic Performance — April 2026
Zanzibar's headline inflation reached 5.0% in April 2026, up from 4.3% in April 2025, driven primarily by higher food prices and rising transport costs linked to fuel price increases. Food inflation in Zanzibar was notably high at 9.9% annually in April 2026, while non-food inflation eased to 1.1% from 4.4% in the same period of 2025.
On the fiscal front, Zanzibar's domestic revenue and grants reached TZS 249.2 billion in April 2026 — surpassing the monthly target by 35%. Development spending accounted for 74% of total government expenditure of TZS 372.5 billion, of which 73.2% was domestically financed. The resulting overall fiscal deficit was TZS 123.3 billion, financed through domestic borrowing.
Zanzibar's current account improved by 18.5% to a surplus of USD 842 million in the year ending April 2026, driven by tourism-related service receipts. Tourist arrivals rose by 21.7% to 944,056. Exports of goods and services grew by 22.4%, with clove export values surging significantly on higher unit prices (USD 6,862 per tonne vs USD 3,050 in April 2025).
Zanzibar Inflation — Annual % (Apr 2025–Apr 2026)
Source: Office of Chief Government Statistician, Zanzibar
Zanzibar Inflation by Division — April 2026
Division
Weight
Apr-25 Annual
Apr-26 Annual
Food & Non-Alc. Bev.
41.9
4.7
9.9
Housing, Water, Electricity
25.8
5.5
-0.4
Clothing & Footwear
6.3
3.9
1.5
Transport
9.1
2.2
2.7
Restaurants & Accommodation
1.4
0.6
6.8
Recreation, Sport & Culture
1.1
4.6
2.6
Information & Communication
4.2
2.0
0.0
Health
1.3
0.3
0.6
All Items (Headline)
100.0
4.3
5.0
Source: Office of the Chief Government Statistician, Table 3.1.1
Related TICGL Resources
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