TICGL

| Economic Consulting Group

TICGL | Economic Consulting Group

In August 2024, the Tanzania Shilling (TZS) depreciated slightly against the US dollar, continuing a trend of gradual weakening. The average exchange rate for the month was TZS 2,694.25 per US dollar, compared to TZS 2,663.76 per US dollar in July 2024, representing an annual depreciation of 10.3%​.

The Tanzania Shilling's depreciation in August 2024 reflects increased demand for foreign currency driven by imports, combined with reduced central bank intervention in the foreign exchange market. While the currency’s decline was moderate, it indicates ongoing pressure on the shilling due to Tanzania's growing import needs, despite robust export performance and healthy foreign reserves.

Key Factors Behind Depreciation:

  1. Demand for Foreign Currency: The depreciation was partly driven by higher demand for US dollars, particularly for imports. Tanzania's growing import bill, which includes fuel, capital goods, and machinery, has increased the demand for foreign exchange. In August 2024, the import of goods rose to USD 1,468.3 million, up from USD 1,163.9 million in the same month of 2023​.
  2. Seasonal Export Inflows: Despite seasonal increases in export earnings from sectors like tourism and agriculture, the shilling continued to experience depreciation. The improvement in foreign exchange liquidity due to these inflows wasn’t enough to offset the increased demand for foreign currency.
  3. Limited Central Bank Intervention: The Bank of Tanzania's participation in the foreign exchange market (Interbank Foreign Exchange Market - IFEM) decreased significantly. In August 2024, the Bank sold a net amount of USD 2.1 million, a sharp decline from USD 10.5 million in July. This limited intervention allowed the market to adjust naturally, contributing to the slight depreciation​.

Foreign Exchange Reserves:

Tanzania’s foreign exchange reserves increased to USD 5,379.7 million, which covers 4.4 months of projected imports. This buffer is above the country’s benchmark for external reserves, allowing the Bank of Tanzania to stabilize the currency if necessary. However, the limited intervention in August indicates a decision to let market forces dictate the exchange rate, at least temporarily​.

Mnamo Agosti 2024, Shilingi ya Tanzania (TZS) ilishuka kidogo dhidi ya dola ya Marekani, ikiendeleza mwelekeo wa kudhoofika kwa polepole. Kiwango cha wastani cha kubadilisha fedha kwa mwezi huo kilikuwa TZS 2,694.25 kwa dola moja ya Marekani, ikilinganishwa na TZS 2,663.76 kwa dola moja ya Marekani mnamo Julai 2024, ikiwa ni kushuka kwa thamani kwa asilimia 10.3 kwa mwaka.

Kushuka kwa thamani ya Shilingi ya Tanzania mnamo Agosti 2024 kunaakisi ongezeko la mahitaji ya fedha za kigeni kutokana na uagizaji wa bidhaa kutoka nje, pamoja na kupungua kwa ushiriki wa benki kuu katika soko la fedha za kigeni. Ingawa kushuka kwa thamani ya sarafu kulikuwa kidogo, hali hii inaashiria shinikizo linaloendelea kwa shilingi kutokana na mahitaji yanayokua ya bidhaa zinazoagizwa kutoka nje, licha ya utendaji mzuri wa mauzo nje na akiba ya fedha za kigeni iliyokuwa imara.

Sababu Muhimu za Kushuka kwa Thamani:

  1. Mahitaji ya Fedha za Kigeni: Kushuka kwa thamani kuliendeshwa kwa kiasi fulani na ongezeko la mahitaji ya dola za Marekani, hususan kwa uagizaji wa bidhaa. Gharama ya kuagiza bidhaa nchini Tanzania, ikiwa ni pamoja na mafuta, bidhaa za mitaji, na mashine, imeongeza mahitaji ya fedha za kigeni. Mnamo Agosti 2024, uagizaji wa bidhaa ulifikia dola milioni 1,468.3, ikilinganishwa na dola milioni 1,163.9 katika mwezi huo huo wa mwaka 2023.
  2. Mapato ya Msimu ya Mauzo Nje: Licha ya ongezeko la msimu la mapato ya mauzo nje kutoka sekta kama utalii na kilimo, shilingi iliendelea kushuka thamani. Uboreshaji wa ukwasi wa fedha za kigeni kutokana na mapato haya haukuweza kumaliza mahitaji makubwa ya fedha za kigeni.
  3. Ushiriki Mdogo wa Benki Kuu: Ushiriki wa Benki Kuu ya Tanzania katika soko la fedha za kigeni (Interbank Foreign Exchange Market - IFEM) ulipungua kwa kiasi kikubwa. Mnamo Agosti 2024, Benki iliuza kiasi cha dola milioni 2.1 pekee, ikilinganishwa na dola milioni 10.5 mnamo Julai. Ushiriki huu mdogo uliiruhusu soko kujirekebisha kwa kawaida, hali iliyochangia kushuka kwa thamani kidogo.

Akiba ya Fedha za Kigeni:

Akiba ya fedha za kigeni ya Tanzania iliongezeka hadi dola milioni 5,379.7, ambayo inatosha kugharamia miezi 4.4 ya uagizaji wa bidhaa unaotarajiwa. Akiba hii inazidi kigezo cha nchi kwa akiba ya nje, ikiiruhusu Benki Kuu ya Tanzania kutuliza sarafu endapo kutahitajika. Hata hivyo, ushiriki mdogo wa benki kuu mnamo Agosti unaonyesha uamuzi wa kuruhusu nguvu za soko kuamua kiwango cha kubadilisha fedha, angalau kwa muda.

Tanzania's debt development in August 2024 reflects a careful approach to financing government operations and development initiatives. The increase in total debt stock, primarily driven by external loans, suggests a reliance on borrowing to support key infrastructure projects and social services. However, the significant proportion of external debt and the ongoing requirement for debt service payments emphasize the importance of sustainable debt management strategies to maintain fiscal health and ensure economic stability.

1. National Debt Stock:

2. External Debt:

3. Composition of External Debt:

4. Domestic Debt:

5. Debt Service Payments:

The debt development data for Tanzania in August 2024 with critical insights about the country's fiscal health and economic management

The overall picture of Tanzania’s debt development underscores a critical balancing act. While borrowing is essential for financing development and growth, the rising debt levels—especially external debt—demand careful monitoring and management to ensure sustainability. The government’s ability to service this debt without compromising other areas of public expenditure will be crucial for maintaining economic stability and fostering long-term growth. Proper fiscal policies and economic management strategies will be essential to mitigate risks associated with high debt levels.

1. Rising National Debt:

2. Predominance of External Debt:

3. Strategic Borrowing for Development:

4. Debt Servicing Pressure:

5. Domestic Debt Dynamics:

In August 2024, Tanzania’s financial sector displayed a stable interest rate environment, with lending rates remaining steady while deposit rates saw a slight increase. The overall lending rate stood at 15.26%, reflecting stable borrowing conditions, while savings deposit rates rose to 3.02%, encouraging more savings. A narrowing interest rate spread indicates reduced credit risk and increased market confidence. These developments signal a healthy and efficient financial sector, supporting both savers and borrowers in Tanzania's growing economy.

1. Overall Lending Rates:

2. Negotiated Lending Rates:

3. Deposit Rates:

4. Interest Rate Spread:

The interest rate figures for Tanzania in August 2024 reveals several important insights about the country’s economic and financial conditions

The stability in interest rates, combined with better deposit returns and a narrowing spread, reflects growing confidence in Tanzania’s economic environment. While lending rates are still relatively high, the overall conditions suggest that the financial sector is healthy, credit risk is reducing, and banks are positioned to support both savings and borrowing activities. This is a positive indicator for both consumers and businesses looking to engage in financial transactions.

1. Stable Lending Environment:

Stability in lending rates reflects banks’ confidence in economic stability, and it offers predictability for businesses planning to borrow for investment or expansion.

2. Increased Savings Returns:

Higher savings rates can promote more savings, increasing liquidity in banks, which can then be used to extend more credit to businesses.

3. Narrowing Interest Rate Spread:

A lower spread means that banks are charging less of a premium on loans, making borrowing slightly cheaper while offering better returns for depositors. This is a positive sign for the economy, indicating improved efficiency in the financial sector.

4. Slightly Lower Risk Perception:

Tanzania's export and import performance in August 2024 demonstrates robust growth in exports, particularly in traditional and non-traditional goods, driven by increased global demand. While imports also rose, reflecting strong economic activity and ongoing demand for capital and intermediate goods, the trade balance shows a deficit, underscoring the challenges of managing external trade flows. Overall, these trends highlight the need for continued focus on enhancing export competitiveness while managing the import bill to ensure sustainable economic growth.

1. Export Performance:

2. Import Performance:

3. Trade Balance:

Growth and Potential

Tanzania, nestled within the vibrant East African region, has emerged as one of Africa's most promising economic success stories. Over the past decade, the country has consistently achieved impressive GDP growth rates, averaging 6-7% annually before the COVID-19 pandemic. Despite global challenges, Tanzania's economy has shown remarkable resilience, with the World Bank projecting a robust recovery and growth rate of 5.4% in 2023, expected to rise to 6.1% by 2025.

This growth is not isolated to Tanzania alone. The East African Community (EAC), comprising Tanzania, Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, and South Sudan, has been one of the fastest-growing regions in Africa. The EAC's combined GDP has more than doubled over the last decade, with an average annual growth rate of around 5-6%. This regional dynamism creates a substantial market of over 177 million people, with Tanzania strategically positioned to serve as a gateway to this burgeoning economic bloc.

Demographic Dividend

One of the key drivers of East Africa's economic potential is its favorable demographics. Tanzania, like its regional counterparts, boasts a young and rapidly growing population. As of 2023, Tanzania's population is estimated at 65 million, with a median age of just 18 years. This youthful population presents a significant demographic dividend, offering a large workforce and a growing consumer base.

The region's high birth rates further underscore its demographic vitality:

These birth rates, while gradually declining, ensure a continued expansion of the population and, by extension, the consumer market. The United Nations projects that Tanzania's population could reach 100 million by 2050, potentially making it one of the largest countries in Africa.

Urbanization and Middle-Class Growth

Accompanying this population growth is a rapid urbanization trend. Tanzania's urban population is increasing by about 5% annually, one of the highest rates globally. This urbanization is driving demand for housing, infrastructure, and consumer goods – including furniture and home furnishings.

Moreover, East Africa is experiencing a notable expansion of its middle class. In Tanzania, the middle class is projected to grow from about 3.7 million in 2020 to over 15 million by 2030. This emerging middle class, with its increased purchasing power and aspirational lifestyles, is driving demand for quality products and modern living spaces.

Investment Climate and Opportunities

Tanzania has been actively improving its business environment to attract foreign investment. The government has implemented various reforms to streamline business processes, enhance infrastructure, and promote key sectors such as manufacturing, agriculture, and services.

The country's strategic location, with access to eight landlocked neighboring countries and a coastline on the Indian Ocean, positions it as a potential logistics and manufacturing hub for the region. This geographic advantage, combined with Tanzania's membership in the EAC and the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), opens up vast opportunities for investors to tap into a market far beyond Tanzania's borders.

In light of these economic and demographic trends, sectors such as furniture manufacturing stand to benefit significantly. The growing population, increasing urbanization, and rising middle class all point to a surge in demand for home furnishings, office furniture, and related products. Investors entering this market now have the opportunity to establish themselves in a rapidly expanding ecosystem, potentially capturing substantial market share as the region's economy continues to flourish.

As we delve into specific investment opportunities in the furniture sector and beyond, it's crucial to keep this broader context of growth, youth, and regional integration in mind. Tanzania, as part of the dynamic East African landscape, offers not just a market of 65 million, but a gateway to hundreds of millions of consumers in one of the world's most promising economic regions.

TICGL | Business Class
TICGL | Tanzania Investment and Consultant Group Ltd Dar es Salaam, Tanzania

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A Legacy of Collaboration and a Blueprint for the Future

By Dr. Bravious Kahyoza, PhD, Senior Economist at TICGL

Tanzania’s journey with Public-Private Partnerships (PPPs) is a compelling narrative of ambition, resilience, and progress. From visionary reforms to groundbreaking collaborations, the country has redefined how public and private sectors can unite to tackle critical challenges. At its core, this is a story of transformation, driven by innovation and a steadfast belief in the power of partnership to uplift a nation.

The Foundations of PPPs in Tanzania

The foundation for PPPs in Tanzania was laid during the administration of President Benjamin Mkapa, whose foresight underscored the importance of liberalization in achieving sustainable economic growth. Under his leadership, Tanzania embraced reforms that positioned the private sector as an engine of development. Mkapa’s vision was clear: the private sector is not a competitor but a development partner. This belief set the stage for deeper collaborations between the government and private entities in providing critical public services and infrastructure.

Building on this foundation, the government under Prime Minister Mizengo Pinda took decisive steps to institutionalize the PPP framework. In 2010, the Public-Private Partnership Act, Cap. 103 was enacted, establishing the PPP Coordination Unit and the PPP Finance Unit to analyze projects for technical and financial viability, respectively. Pinda championed the legislation, emphasizing the need for a structured system where the government and private sector could collaborate efficiently. However, implementation challenges soon became evident, necessitating further reforms.

Evolution and Reforms of the PPP Framework

By 2014, the government acknowledged these challenges and moved to amend the PPP Act, merging the two units into the PPP Centre, a centralized entity within the Office of the Prime Minister. This reform aimed to streamline decision-making processes and reduce bureaucratic hurdles. Economic experts like Prof. Lucian Msambichaka from the University of Dar es Salaam supported the change, noting that a fragmented approach could not thrive in a fast-paced economic environment. A single institution, he argued, would instill confidence among investors and guide the process more effectively.

Another pivotal reform came in 2018, when the PPP Centre was relocated to the Ministry of Finance and Planning to align its operations more closely with the country’s fiscal policies. Leaders like Prof. Kitila Mkumbo, Minister of Planning and Investment, advocated for the move, believing that integration with the finance ministry would ensure more effective resource mobilization aligned with national priorities.

Current Leadership and Progress

Today, the PPP Centre operates under the Ministry of Finance and Planning, led by David Zacharia Kafulila, a seasoned public administrator appointed as the Centre’s first Executive Director in January 2024. Under his leadership, Tanzania’s PPP agenda has been revitalized, leading to the initiation and acceleration of projects in critical sectors such as energy, transportation, and health. With a results-driven approach, Kafulila emphasizes that partnerships must deliver real outcomes. His leadership has drawn praise from President Samia Suluhu Hassan, who, in a national address, recognized the Centre’s transformation into a model of efficiency and innovation. Projects once stalled are now progressing, instilling a renewed sense of hope for the future.

Challenges and the Road Ahead

Yet, despite the progress, challenges remain. The late Prof. Honest Ngowi from Mzumbe University often highlighted the barriers hindering the full realization of PPPs in Tanzania. These include gaps in the legal and institutional framework, a need for more comprehensive feasibility studies, and improved risk-sharing mechanisms to better attract private-sector investment. As he put it, goodwill alone is not enough—the government must foster an environment where investors feel secure and respected.

The impact of faith-based organizations in sectors such as education, health, and water demonstrates the transformative power of partnerships. Their successes offer proof of concept, yet scaling these models to large infrastructure projects has proven difficult due to complex regulatory and financial dynamics.

Tanzania’s PPP progress has been bolstered by broader economic reforms. Investment as a percentage of GDP increased from 17.6 percent in 1995 to 26.3 percent in 2008, and by 2023, it stood at 40.25 percent—reflecting greater private sector participation. However, access to credit remains low by global standards, limiting the scope of private involvement in high-impact projects. Prof. Ngowi often emphasized the need for expanded access to long-term financing to support truly transformative initiatives.

Foreign Direct Investment has also seen positive growth, rising by 14.7 percent in 2023 to reach $1.65 billion, up from $1.44 billion the year before. This increase was largely driven by a surge in intercompany loans, which accounted for 43.1 percent of total FDI flows, compared to 8.7 percent in 2022. While these figures are promising, they remain modest when compared to global and regional benchmarks. Addressing bottlenecks in infrastructure and refining the regulatory environment will be crucial to attracting even more investment. Prof. Mkumbo has often stressed that without a supportive business environment, Tanzania risks falling behind in the global competition for capital.

A Look at Regional Success Stories

Valuable lessons can be drawn from other African countries that have implemented successful PPP models. South Africa’s Renewable Energy Independent Power Producer Procurement (REIPPP) program has attracted billions in investment by offering clear guidelines, competitive bidding, and consistent government commitment. Kenya’s Nairobi Expressway is another success story, showcasing the value of strategic partnerships that balance investor returns with public benefits.

These examples underline a central truth: effective PPPs depend on transparent processes, strong institutions, and clear policy frameworks that inspire investor confidence while safeguarding public interest.

The Future of PPPs in Tanzania

As Tanzania moves toward realizing its Vision 2025 development agenda, the role of PPPs will only grow more critical. The government recognizes that bridging financial and technical resource gaps will require active participation from the private sector. Kafulila maintains that PPPs are not just a financing mechanism—they are a strategy for delivering better services and spurring economic growth. His balanced approach blends private-sector innovation with public oversight to ensure lasting benefits for all citizens.

The legacy of PPPs in Tanzania reflects decades of deliberate policy choices and courageous leadership—from President Mkapa’s economic liberalization to Prime Minister Pinda’s legal reforms and the insights of economists like Prof. Msambichaka and Prof. Ngowi. Today, that legacy is being shaped further by a new generation of leaders and partners.

With strong leadership, coherent policies, and a shared national vision, Tanzania is well-positioned to unlock the full potential of Public-Private Partnerships—building a future defined by inclusive development, modern infrastructure, and sustained prosperity.

The Roadmap to PPP Development

By Dr. Bravious Kahyoza, PhD, Senior Economist at TICGL

Tanzania’s journey in Public-Private Partnerships (PPPs) began with the National PPP Policy in 2009, which laid the foundation for a structured approach to public-private collaboration.

The Public-Private Partnership Act, CAP 103, was enacted in 2010, establishing a key institution: PPP Coordination Unit under the Ministry of Finance, responsible for receiving, analyzing, and assessing financial feasibility for PPP projects.

Over the years, amendments to the PPP framework have been made to address challenges and enhance efficiency.

In 2014, the Act was amended to establish the PPP Centre as a One-Stop Centre under the Prime Minister’s Office. However, to further consolidate PPP activities, another amendment in 2018 transferred the PPP Centre to the Ministry of Finance and Planning, ensuring that all public-private partnership operations were streamlined under one ministry.

A major turning point came with the 2023 Amendment, which introduced significant reforms to streamline processes, improve governance, and attract investments. The Public-Private Partnership Act of 2023 officially became operational on July 14, 2023, marking a proactive step toward making Tanzania a preferred investment destination.

Key Features of the 2023 PPP Amendment Act

Strengthening Governance and Approval Processes

One of the most notable reforms introduced in the 2023 Amendment Act is the establishment of special arrangements for strategic projects. Under these provisions, any agreement concerning strategic projects must first be vetted by the Attorney General before receiving final approval.

Additionally, the prefeasibility study requirement has been strengthened. Now, every contracting authority must submit a prefeasibility study to relevant ministers as part of each budget cycle to ensure potential PPP projects align with national development goals.

To enhance efficiency, a strict timeline has been introduced for project approvals. The PPP Centre is required to analyze prefeasibility studies, proposal documents, and evaluation reports for bidder selection within thirty working days from the date of submission.

Enhancing the Financing and Procurement Framework

The 2023 Amendment defines public funding in PPP projects as government financial support that constitutes fiscal commitments and liabilities. This ensures clarity in how public resources are allocated in PPP projects.

To improve procurement processes, the Act mandates the establishment of Special Purpose Vehicles (SPVs) by private sector partners before signing any PPP agreement. This measure helps in risk allocation, project financing, and long-term project sustainability.

Moreover, the Act promotes amicable dispute resolution by emphasizing negotiation-based mechanisms for resolving disputes that may arise during PPP project implementation.

Promoting Transparency and Accountability

To ensure continuous monitoring, the new law requires the PPP Centre to consolidate periodic performance reports from all PPP projects and submit them to the PPP Steering Committee before forwarding them to the Minister of Finance.

Another key improvement is the legal primacy of the PPP Act. In case of any conflict between the PPP Act and other laws, the provisions of the PPP Act will take precedence, eliminating ambiguities that could slow down project implementation.

Impact of the 2023 PPP Amendment Act

The amendment of the PPP Act in 2023 is expected to have significant positive impacts on Tanzania’s investment climate and infrastructure development.

One of the most notable benefits is the introduction of investment incentives for private sector investors. These include tax benefits and government guarantees for mining and petroleum projects, along with assistance in securing capital. These measures are designed to attract more private sector participation in strategic projects.

The amendment also enhances efficiency in project implementation by reducing preparation time and optimizing resource utilization. By clarifying the roles of different stakeholders and introducing clear standard operating procedures, the Act ensures that projects move from planning to execution more efficiently.

Furthermore, the Act introduces key definitions that strengthen the overall PPP framework. Concepts such as Special Purpose Vehicles (SPVs), standard documents, and strategic projects are now well-defined, leading to greater transparency, accountability, and better decision-making.

The introduction of dispute resolution mechanisms under the amendment Act strengthens governance and fosters better collaboration between the public and private sectors. By prioritizing negotiation-based resolutions, the law reduces risks associated with legal uncertainties in PPP projects.

Positioning Tanzania as a Competitive Investment Destination

The recent PPP Amendment Act of 2023 marks a major milestone in Tanzania’s journey toward creating a sustainable hub for local and foreign investment. With these legal and regulatory improvements, the government hopes to attract more private sector engagement in critical infrastructure areas and stimulate economic growth.

By enabling investment possibilities, fostering dispute resolution, and providing tax incentives, Tanzania is positioning itself as a regional leader in infrastructure-driven economic growth. The success of these reforms will depend on consistent implementation, policy stability, and continued collaboration between the public and private sectors.

With bold reforms and a strong commitment to transparency, Tanzania is well on its way to unlocking the full potential of Public-Private Partnerships.

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