Sub-Saharan Africa's economic outlook for 2024 presents a picture of gradual recovery, with growth projected to rise from 2.4% in 2023 to 3% in 2024, and reaching 4% by 2025-2026. This recovery is driven by improving private consumption and investment, fueled by easing inflation, which is expected to decline from 7.1% in 2023 to 4.8% in 2024, allowing for potential monetary policy rate cuts. However, the region’s macroeconomic performance remains challenged by high public debt, estimated at 58% of GDP in 2024, and a fiscal deficit projected to improve to 3.3% of GDP. Risks to the outlook include conflict (e.g., in Sudan), climate-related disasters, and the region's vulnerability to external shocks, with 53% of low-income countries facing high risk of debt distress. Addressing these challenges requires fiscal reforms and targeted investments to ensure sustained growth and stability.

1. Growth Outlook in Sub-Saharan Africa:

• Growth Recovery: Economic activity in Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to grow by 3% in 2024, up from 2.4% in 2023, and further accelerate to 4% by 2025-2026​.
• Per Capita Growth: Real income per capita is forecasted to grow by 0.5% in 2024 and 1.4% in 2025​.
• Strong Performers: Countries like Côte d’Ivoire (6.5%), Uganda (6%), and Tanzania (5.4%) are among the top performers expected to post over 5% growth in 2024​.

2. Growth Environment:

• Private Consumption and Investment: These are the main drivers of growth recovery, boosted by easing inflation which is expected to decline from 7.1% in 2023 to 4.8% in 2024​.
• Inflation Decline: Inflation is declining across the region, with around 70% of countries expected to register lower inflation rates in 2024​.
• Monetary Policy: As inflation cools, countries may pursue monetary policy rate cuts, fostering greater investment​.

3. Sub-Saharan Africa's Macroeconomic Performance:

• Public Debt: Government debt remains high at around 58% of GDP in 2024. Sub-Saharan African countries are expected to pay US$19 billion in public external debt service, mostly to private creditors​.
• Fiscal Balance: The median fiscal deficit is projected to decrease from 3.9% of GDP in 2023 to 3.3% of GDP in 2024, with efforts to raise revenue and reduce expenditure​.

4. Risks to the Outlook:

• High Debt: An elevated debt burden reduces the fiscal space for governments to invest in critical infrastructure and human capital​.
• Conflict and Climate Change: Ongoing conflict, such as in Sudan, and climate-related disasters, including floods and droughts, are key risks affecting growth and food security in the region​.

The Africa's Pulse October 2024 report key points about Sub-Saharan Africa's economic outlook

Sub-Saharan Africa is experiencing a gradual recovery in economic growth, but significant challenges like high debt, conflict, climate change, and limited fiscal space present risks to sustained progress. The region needs to address these challenges through fiscal reforms, targeted investments, and efforts to enhance macroeconomic stability.

1. Economic Growth Recovery: The region's economy is projected to grow by 3% in 2024, up from 2.4% in 2023, with further acceleration to 4% by 2025-2026. This is driven mainly by private consumption and investment, supported by easing inflation and anticipated interest rate cuts. However, the growth recovery remains modest compared to other global regions.
2. Inflation and Consumption: Inflation is expected to decline from 7.1% in 2023 to 4.8% in 2024, improving the purchasing power of households, which in turn supports private consumption. This cooling of inflation allows for potential monetary policy easing, encouraging investment and economic activity.
3. Macroeconomic Performance: Despite growth prospects, the region faces significant challenges:
   • High Debt Levels: Public debt remains at 58% of GDP, with US$19 billion in debt service payments, mostly owed to private creditors. This reduces the fiscal space for essential investments in infrastructure and social services.
   • Fiscal Balance: Fiscal deficits are improving slightly, from 3.9% of GDP in 2023 to 3.3% in 2024, thanks to revenue collection efforts and spending cuts. However, the region's debt burden continues to limit overall progress.
4. Risks to the Outlook:
   • Conflict and Climate Change: Ongoing conflicts, such as the war in Sudan, and extreme weather events (floods, droughts) are major risks to economic stability. These challenges undermine growth, disrupt food security, and exacerbate poverty in affected countries.
   • Vulnerability: Over 53% of low-income countries in Sub-Saharan Africa are at high risk of debt distress, and many countries are vulnerable to external shocks due to their high reliance on global financing and commodity exports.

Source: Africa’s Pulse October 2024 report

Tanzania's economic outlook for 2024 shows strong growth potential, with a projected GDP increase of 5.4%, significantly higher than the 3% average for Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). As part of the East African Community (EAC), which is forecasted to grow by 4.7% in 2024, Tanzania benefits from macroeconomic stability and strategic investments in infrastructure, particularly in energy, telecommunications, and transport. These investments, combined with stable inflation, are expected to boost private consumption and investment. However, Tanzania's public debt is projected to rise from 42.5% to 48.4% of GDP, reflecting infrastructure spending, while the fiscal deficit is expected to stabilize at 3.3% of GDP. Risks remain, especially around rising debt and climate-related challenges like droughts and floods, which could impact agriculture and economic stability. Despite these risks, Tanzania's growth prospects remain robust in comparison to other SSA countries.

1. Growth Outlook

• Tanzania is expected to experience GDP growth of 5.4% in 2024, outperforming the regional average growth of 3% for SSA​.
• The East African Community (EAC), which includes Tanzania, is one of the strongest economic performers in SSA, with expected growth of 4.7% in 2024 and 5.7% by 2025–26​.

2. Growth Environment

• Tanzania benefits from macroeconomic stability and rising investments in sectors like energy, telecommunications, and transport, which help enhance productivity. The country’s inflation rate is expected to stabilize, supporting private consumption and investment​.
• Private consumption is expected to increase as inflation eases across SSA, with countries like Tanzania reaping benefits from stable inflation and favorable monetary policies, further bolstering growth​.

3. Macroeconomic Performance

• Government debt in Tanzania is estimated to rise slightly from 42.5% of GDP in 2023 to 48.4% of GDP in 2024, reflecting investments in key infrastructure projects​.
• In terms of sectoral performance, Tanzania’s growth is bolstered by services and infrastructure projects in energy and transport. Investment in these areas is critical for sustaining long-term growth​.
• Fiscal Balance: Tanzania's fiscal deficit is expected to improve slightly, with a fiscal deficit of around 3.3% of GDP in 2024​.

4. Risk Outlook

• High Debt: Public debt remains a key risk in Tanzania, as in many other SSA countries. The rising debt levels could strain fiscal resources, especially in a region where debt service obligations are already significant​.
• Climate Change and Conflict: Tanzania is exposed to climate risks and ongoing economic volatility in the region, which could affect agriculture and food security. Extreme weather events such as droughts or floods are persistent risks across the region​.

Tanzania's economic position relative to other Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries

Tanzania's economy is performing well relative to other Sub-Saharan African countries, with solid growth prospects and important investments. However, the country must address challenges related to debt and climate change to ensure that growth is sustainable.

1. Tanzania’s Strong Growth Outlook: With a projected GDP growth of 5.4% in 2024, Tanzania is set to grow much faster than the Sub-Saharan African average of 3%. This positions Tanzania as one of the leading economies in the region, especially within the East African Community (EAC) where growth is also expected to be robust.
2. Growth Environment: Tanzania benefits from macroeconomic stability and is making significant investments in energy, transport, and telecommunications. These investments are crucial for reducing productivity bottlenecks and fostering economic expansion. Stable inflation will also boost private consumption and investment, further enhancing growth.
3. Macroeconomic Performance: Tanzania's debt level is rising but remains relatively manageable. The government is using this debt to finance critical infrastructure, which is essential for long-term economic development. The country’s fiscal deficit is also improving, suggesting prudent fiscal management.
4. Risk Outlook: Despite its positive growth outlook, Tanzania faces risks related to its rising debt levels, which could become a burden if not managed properly. Additionally, climate-related risks such as droughts and floods, which are common in SSA, pose threats to Tanzania’s agricultural sector and overall economic stability.

Source: Africa’s Pulse October 2024 report

Uwiano wa Deni la Serikali ya Tanzania kwa Pato la Taifa ulikuwa asilimia 38.3% mwaka 2022, ukipanda hadi asilimia 53.4% kufikia katikati ya mwaka 2023, huku deni la taifa likifikia Dola za Kimarekani bilioni 42.68, kutoka Dola za Kimarekani bilioni 38.27 mnamo Juni 2022. Pato la Taifa (GDP) la Tanzania lilifikia kiwango cha juu kabisa cha Dola za Kimarekani bilioni 79.16 mwaka 2023, likionyesha ukuaji mzuri wa uchumi na wastani wa ukuaji wa asilimia 5.5% kwa mwaka. Hata hivyo, deni linaongezeka kwa kasi zaidi kwa asilimia 6% kwa mwaka, jambo ambalo linaashiria ongezeko la wastani la uwiano wa deni kwa Pato la Taifa, unaotarajiwa kufikia asilimia 54.7% ifikapo mwaka 2030. Ukuaji wa deni la Tanzania unaonyesha uwekezaji unaoendelea kwenye miundombinu lakini unahitaji usimamizi wa deni kwa umakini ili kudumisha utulivu wa kifedha.

1. Uwiano wa Deni la Serikali kwa Pato la Taifa:

• 2022: Deni la serikali ya Tanzania lilikuwa asilimia 38.30% ya Pato la Taifa. Uwiano huu unaonyesha ukubwa wa deni la serikali ukilinganishwa na uzalishaji wa uchumi wa nchi.
• Mwelekeo wa Kihistoria:
  • Kati ya mwaka 2001 na 2022, wastani wa Uwiano wa Deni la Serikali kwa Pato la Taifa ulikuwa asilimia 35.26%.
  • Uwiano wa juu zaidi ulirekodiwa mwaka 2001 kwa asilimia 50.20%, wakati nchi ilikuwa ikifanya marekebisho ya kimuundo na kukabiliana na mzigo mkubwa wa deni.
  • Uwiano wa chini zaidi ulikuwa mwaka 2008, kwa asilimia 21.50%, kufuatia mipango ya kupunguza deni kama vile mpango wa Nchi Masikini Zinazodaiwa Sana (HIPC), ambao ulisababisha kupungua kwa deni la Tanzania.

2. Mwelekeo wa Pato la Taifa (GDP):

• Kwa kipindi cha miaka 1960 hadi 2023, Pato la Taifa la Tanzania limekua kwa kiasi kikubwa. Wastani ulikuwa Dola za Kimarekani bilioni 19.48.
• Thamani ya juu zaidi ya GDP ilifikiwa mwaka 2023, ikiwa ni Dola za Kimarekani bilioni 79.16, ikionyesha ukuaji wa kudumu wa uchumi kwa miaka mingi.
• Mwaka 1960, GDP ya Tanzania ilikuwa ndogo sana, kwa Dola za Kimarekani bilioni 2.65, ikionyesha ukubwa wa uchumi muda mfupi baada ya kupata uhuru.

3. Hali ya Deni la Taifa kufikia Juni 2023:

• Kufikia mwisho wa Juni 2023, deni la taifa la Tanzania, ambalo linajumuisha deni la umma la ndani na nje pamoja na deni la sekta binafsi ya nje, lilikuwa Dola za Kimarekani milioni 42,681.
• Kiwango hiki cha deni kilikuwa ni asilimia 53.4% ya Pato la Taifa. Ongezeko hili linaonyesha kukopa kwa ajili ya miradi ya maendeleo, pamoja na kuongezeka kwa mahitaji ya mikopo kutoka kwa sekta binafsi.
• Takwimu za Juni 2022 zinaonyesha deni la taifa lilikuwa Dola za Kimarekani milioni 38,265.63, ikionyesha ongezeko kubwa la deni kwa mwaka mmoja, ongezeko la takriban asilimia 11.5% katika hali ya kawaida.

Utabiri wa Uwiano wa Deni la Serikali ya Tanzania kwa Pato la Taifa hadi mwaka 2030

• Kiwango cha ukuaji wa Pato la Taifa: asilimia 5.5% kwa mwaka (wastani wa ukuaji wa hivi karibuni).
• Kiwango cha ukuaji wa deni: asilimia 6% kwa mwaka (ikizingatiwa uwekezaji wa umma unaoendelea na maendeleo ya miundombinu).

Jedwari la Utabiri wa Uwiano wa Deni la Serikali ya Tanzania kwa Pato la Taifa hadi mwaka 2030

Dhana:

• Kiwango cha ukuaji wa GDP: asilimia 5.5% kwa mwaka, kikionyesha mwelekeo wa ukuaji wa hivi karibuni wa uchumi wa Tanzania.
• Kiwango cha ukuaji wa deni: asilimia 6% kwa mwaka, kikionyesha kuendelea kwa ukopaji kwa ajili ya miundombinu, maendeleo, na programu zingine za kitaifa.
• Uwiano wa deni kwa Pato la Taifa: unatarajiwa kuongezeka kidogo kutokana na ukuaji wa deni kuzidi ukuaji wa Pato la Taifa.

Hali ya Uchumi wa Tanzania na Sera ya Fedha:

1. Mwelekeo wa Deni la Serikali:
   • Uwiano wa Deni la Serikali kwa Pato la Taifa umekuwa ukibadilika kwa muda, ikiwa na kiwango cha juu mwaka 2001 (50.20%) na kiwango cha chini mwaka 2008 (21.50%) kutokana na mipango ya msamaha wa deni kama vile HIPC.
   • Uwiano wa sasa wa deni kwa Pato la Taifa, asilimia 38.30% mwaka 2022, ni wa wastani ukilinganisha na viwango vya kihistoria. Hata hivyo, ongezeko la uwiano huu hadi asilimia 53.4% mwaka 2023 linaonyesha mzigo wa deni unaoongezeka kutokana na kuongezeka kwa mikopo kwa ajili ya miradi ya maendeleo na uwekezaji wa miundombinu.
   • Utabiri unaonyesha uwiano wa deni kwa Pato la Taifa utaendelea kuongezeka hadi mwaka 2030, kufikia asilimia 54.7%.
2. Ukuaji wa Uchumi:
   • Uchumi wa Tanzania umekuwa ukikua kwa kasi, na GDP kufikia kiwango cha juu cha Dola za Kimarekani bilioni 79.16 mwaka 2023.
   • Ukuaji wa wastani wa asilimia 5.5% kwa mwaka unatarajiwa kuendelea, ikionyesha mwenendo mzuri wa uchumi wa Tanzania.
3. Ukuaji wa Deni kuzidi Ukuaji wa Pato la Taifa:
   • Wakati GDP inaendelea kukua, deni la serikali linakua kwa kasi zaidi (asilimia 6% ikilinganishwa na ukuaji wa asilimia 5.5% wa GDP). Hii inaashiria kuwa Tanzania inakopa kwa kasi zaidi kuliko inavyokua kiuchumi.
4. Uendelevu wa Deni na Hatari:
   • Ongezeko la uwiano wa deni kwa Pato la Taifa linaonyesha umuhimu wa kudhibiti deni ili kuhakikisha kuwa linaendelea kuwa la kudumu. Wakati uwiano wa deni wa takribani asilimia 54-55% unafikiriwa kuwa wa kudhibitiwa, ni muhimu kuzingatia sera za kifedha kwa umakini.
   • Hatari za nje kama vile hali ya uchumi wa dunia, viwango vya riba, na mabadiliko ya sarafu yanaweza kuongeza mzigo wa deni. Kwa mfano, ikiwa deni la nje la Tanzania litaongezeka na deni hilo liko katika sarafu za kigeni, kushuka kwa thamani ya shilingi ya Tanzania kunaweza kufanya ulipaji wa deni kuwa ghali zaidi.
5. Madhara kwa Sera za Serikali:
   • Usimamizi wa deni utakuwa wa muhimu kwa Tanzania kudumisha utulivu wa kifedha. Serikali inapaswa kusawazisha mikopo na uwezo wake wa kuzalisha mapato, kuepuka viwango vya juu vya deni ambavyo vinaweza kuzuia ukuaji wa uchumi.
   • Uwekezaji unaoendelea katika miundombinu na maendeleo ni muhimu ili kusaidia ukuaji wa Pato la Taifa, lakini mipango ya makini inahitajika ili kuhakikisha kuwa fedha za mikopo zinatumiwa kwa ufanisi na miradi inazalisha mapato ambayo yanaongeza tija.
   • Tanzania pia inapaswa kuzingatia kuanika uchumi wake ili kupunguza utegemezi wa mambo ya nje na kuongeza uwezo wake wa kustahimili mshtuko wa kiuchumi.

Hitimisho:

Ukuaji wa deni la Tanzania na ukuaji wa Pato la Taifa unaonyesha fursa pamoja na changamoto. Ingawa nchi inawekeza katika mustakabali wake, kusimamia kasi ya mikopo na kuhakikisha ukuaji wa uchumi endelevu itakuwa muhimu kwa kudumisha utulivu wa muda mrefu wa kifedha. Ikiwa usimamizi wa deni utafanywa vizuri, ongezeko la uwiano wa deni kwa Pato la Taifa linaweza kusaidia maendeleo. Lakini ikiwa deni litashindwa kudhibitiwa au kutatizwa na mishtuko ya nje, linaweza kuleta matatizo kwa utulivu wa kifedha.

The Bank of Tanzania's Statement of Financial Position as of September 30, 2024, reflects significant developments in the country's economic landscape. Total assets grew by 1% to TZS 25.86 trillion, driven by a 66.7% increase in loans and receivables and a 5.4% rise in foreign currency marketable securities. At the same time, advances to the government decreased by 10.6%, indicating fiscal discipline. The bank’s equity rose by 7%, with reserves growing by 7.4%, showcasing stronger financial stability. These trends highlight key aspects of Tanzania’s economic development, focusing on sustainable growth and investment stability.

Assets

• Cash and Cash Equivalents: TZS 5.88 trillion, a slight decrease from TZS 6.09 trillion in August 2024.
• Special Drawing Rights (SDRs): TZS 5.84 billion, an increase from TZS 5.74 billion the previous month.
• Gold: TZS 84.48 billion, up from TZS 79.66 billion in August, reflecting a 6% increase.
• Quota in IMF: TZS 1.46 trillion, up from TZS 1.44 trillion, representing a marginal increase.
• Foreign Currency Marketable Securities: TZS 8.54 trillion, up from TZS 8.10 trillion, showing a 5.4% increase.
• Government Securities: TZS 1.95 trillion, slightly up from TZS 1.91 trillion.
• Advances to Government: TZS 4.44 trillion, down significantly from TZS 4.96 trillion, representing a decrease of around 10.6%.
• Loans and Receivables: TZS 1.17 trillion, up from TZS 699.11 billion, indicating a notable 66.7% increase.
• Equity Investments: TZS 157.48 billion, up from TZS 140.56 billion (a 12% increase).
• Other Assets: TZS 1.06 trillion, a small decline from TZS 1.11 trillion in August.

Total Assets

• The total assets of the bank as of September 30, 2024, amounted to TZS 25.86 trillion, compared to TZS 25.61 trillion at the end of August 2024, representing a growth of 1% month-on-month.

Liabilities

• Currency in Circulation: TZS 8.47 trillion, up from TZS 8.32 trillion, an increase of 1.7%.
• Deposits from Banks and Non-Bank Financial Institutions: TZS 2.67 trillion, down slightly from TZS 2.73 trillion.
• Foreign Currency Financial Liabilities: TZS 6.11 trillion, up from TZS 5.83 trillion, indicating a 4.9% increase.
• BoT Liquidity Papers: TZS 529.73 billion, down from TZS 536.83 billion.
• IMF Related Liabilities: TZS 1.17 trillion, unchanged from the previous month.

Total Liabilities

• The total liabilities stood at TZS 22.95 trillion, compared to TZS 22.90 trillion at the end of August, showing a slight increase of 0.2%.

Equity

• Authorized and Paid-up Capital: TZS 100 billion, unchanged.
• Reserves: TZS 2.81 trillion, up from TZS 2.62 trillion, reflecting a 7.4% increase.

Total Equity

• The total equity increased to TZS 2.91 trillion from TZS 2.72 trillion, representing a growth of 7%.

Summary

• The Bank of Tanzania saw a moderate increase in both its total assets and liabilities between August and September 2024. The most notable changes were in advances to the government, which dropped by 10.6%, and loans and receivables, which rose by 66.7%. Additionally, equity growth was largely driven by an increase in reserves, marking a 7.4% rise.

Key insights into Tanzania’s economic development by reflecting the central bank’s financial activities and its role in supporting the economy

1. Increase in Foreign Currency Marketable Securities

• The growth of foreign currency marketable securities (up 5.4% from August to September 2024) indicates a higher investment in foreign assets. This reflects an increase in Tanzania's foreign reserves, which supports the country's external trade and provides a buffer against external shocks like fluctuating commodity prices or global financial instability. Strong foreign reserves are a positive signal of economic stability and can improve investor confidence.

2. Reduction in Advances to the Government

• The 10.6% decline in advances to the government (from TZS 4.96 trillion to TZS 4.44 trillion) suggests a reduction in central bank lending to the government, which could signal improved fiscal discipline or alternative sources of government funding (such as tax revenues or external financing). This is important for Tanzania's economic stability, as overreliance on central bank borrowing can lead to inflationary pressures. The reduction could also indicate that the government is focusing on sustainable debt management practices, which contributes to long-term economic growth.

3. Loans and Receivables Growth

• The 66.7% increase in loans and receivables points to a rise in lending to the private sector or other entities, which is essential for economic development. Increased credit availability can drive business investment, expand production capacity, and boost employment opportunities, thereby stimulating economic growth. This growth in loans might be supporting sectors such as agriculture, manufacturing, and services, which are critical for Tanzania’s development.

4. Growth in Currency in Circulation

• The increase in currency in circulation by 1.7% (from TZS 8.32 trillion to TZS 8.47 trillion) could indicate a growing economy with rising demand for cash as businesses expand and consumer spending increases. This is a sign of economic activity and a more robust domestic market. However, excessive currency issuance without corresponding growth in goods and services can lead to inflation, so maintaining a balance is important.

5. Stable IMF and Foreign Liabilities

• The stability of IMF-related liabilities and moderate increases in foreign currency financial liabilities suggest that Tanzania is managing its external obligations in a stable manner. This is crucial for maintaining a positive international reputation and avoiding excessive debt burdens that could slow economic progress.

6. Increase in Gold and SDRs Holdings

• The increase in gold reserves (up 6%) and Special Drawing Rights (SDRs, up 1.6%) signifies that Tanzania is strengthening its reserve assets, which enhances financial stability. These reserves can be used to support the shilling in times of exchange rate volatility or economic distress, promoting macroeconomic stability.

7. Reserves and Equity Growth

• The 7.4% increase in reserves and a 7% rise in total equity reflect the Bank of Tanzania's efforts to build a stronger financial position. Higher reserves provide a buffer for economic risks and allow the central bank to better support the economy through monetary policy, which is essential for fostering growth and controlling inflation.

Conclusion

• The Bank of Tanzania’s financial position reveals positive signs for the country's economic development. The central bank’s strategy of increasing foreign reserves, reducing government dependency on central bank advances, and expanding loans and receivables aligns with key development goals such as fostering fiscal stability, supporting private sector growth, and maintaining monetary stability. These trends support Tanzania’s long-term goals of sustainable economic growth, diversification, and poverty reduction.

Tanzania's Government Debt to GDP ratio stood at 38.3% in 2022, rising to 53.4% by mid-2023 as the national debt reached USD 42.68 billion, up from USD 38.27 billion in June 2022. The country’s GDP hit an all-time high of USD 79.16 billion in 2023, reflecting strong economic growth with an average annual growth rate of 5.5%. However, debt is growing faster at 6% annually, signaling a moderate rise in the debt-to-GDP ratio, which is projected to reach 54.7% by 2030. Tanzania’s growing debt suggests ongoing investment in infrastructure but calls for careful debt management to maintain fiscal stability.

1. Government Debt to GDP Ratio:
   • 2022: Tanzania's government debt was 38.30% of the country's GDP. This ratio indicates the size of the government's debt in relation to the country's economic output.
   • Historical Trend:
     • Between 2001 and 2022, the Government Debt to GDP ratio averaged 35.26%.
     • The highest ratio recorded was in 2001 at 50.20%, a time when the country was undergoing structural reforms and grappling with high debt burdens.
     • The lowest ratio was in 2008, at 21.50%, following debt relief initiatives like the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) program, which led to significant reductions in Tanzania's debt burden.
2. GDP Trend:
   • Over the period from 1960 to 2023, Tanzania’s GDP grew significantly. On average, it was around USD 19.48 billion.
   • The highest GDP value was reached in 2023, at USD 79.16 billion, showcasing the steady growth of the economy over the years.
   • In 1960, Tanzania’s GDP was much smaller, at USD 2.65 billion, reflecting the economy's size shortly after gaining independence.
3. National Debt Stock as of June 2023:
   • By the end of June 2023, Tanzania's national debt, which includes both public domestic and external debt as well as private sector external debt, stood at USD 42,681 million.
   • This debt level represented 53.4% of GDP. This increase reflects borrowing for development projects, as well as increased demand for credit by the private sector.
   • June 2022 figures show the national debt at USD 38,265.63 million, indicating a significant increase in debt over the course of a year, a rise of approximately 11.5% in nominal terms.

Forecast Tanzania's Government Debt to GDP ratio until 2030

• GDP growth rate: 5.5% per year (average recent growth rate).
• Debt growth rate: 6% per year (assuming continued public investment and infrastructure development).

Forecast Table: Tanzania's Government Debt to GDP Ratio (2024–2030)

Assumptions:

• GDP growth rate: 5.5% per annum, reflecting recent growth trends in Tanzania’s economy.
• Debt growth rate: 6% per annum, reflecting continued borrowing for infrastructure, development, and other national programs.
• Debt to GDP ratio remains slightly increasing due to debt growth outpacing GDP growth slightly.

Tanzania's economic situation and fiscal policy

1. Government Debt Trends:

• Tanzania's Government Debt to GDP ratio has fluctuated over time, with a relatively high point in 2001 (50.20%) and a significant low in 2008 (21.50%) due to debt relief initiatives like HIPC.
• The current debt-to-GDP ratio, 38.30% in 2022, is moderate compared to historical highs. However, the increase in the ratio to 53.4% in 2023 indicates a rising debt burden due to higher borrowing for development projects and infrastructure investments.
• The forecast suggests the debt-to-GDP ratio will continue to rise moderately until 2030, reaching around 54.7%. This is not yet alarming, but continued growth in debt without corresponding economic growth may increase debt-servicing challenges.

2. Economic Growth:

• Tanzania’s economy has experienced steady GDP growth, with GDP reaching an all-time high of USD 79.16 billion in 2023.
• The forecasted GDP growth at an annual rate of 5.5% reflects a positive trend, suggesting that Tanzania will continue to grow, though the government will need to ensure that this growth is sustainable and inclusive.

3. Debt Growth Outpacing GDP:

• While GDP is growing, the government debt is growing at a slightly faster rate (6% vs. 5.5% GDP growth). This implies that Tanzania is borrowing more quickly than it is growing economically.
• A rising debt-to-GDP ratio indicates that the government is relying on debt to finance its projects. If this borrowing leads to productive investments, such as in infrastructure or social services, the economy will benefit in the long term. However, if the debt becomes unsustainable or poorly managed, it could create fiscal pressures.

4. Debt Sustainability and Risks:

• The projected increase in the debt-to-GDP ratio through 2030 highlights the importance of debt sustainability. While a ratio around 54-55% is manageable, it signals a need for vigilance in fiscal policy.
• External factors such as global economic conditions, interest rates, and currency fluctuations could exacerbate debt burdens. For example, if Tanzania’s external debt (part of the national debt) grows in foreign currencies, currency depreciation could make debt repayments more costly.

5. Implications for Policy:

• Debt management will be critical for Tanzania to maintain fiscal stability. The government must balance borrowing with its ability to generate revenue, avoiding excessive debt levels that could hinder growth.
• Continued investment in infrastructure and development is necessary to support GDP growth, but careful planning is essential to ensure that borrowed funds are used effectively and that projects yield returns that boost productivity.
• Tanzania should also focus on diversifying its economy to reduce dependence on external factors and enhance resilience to economic shocks.

Conclusion:

Tanzania's rising debt levels and growing GDP reflect both opportunities and challenges. While the country is investing in its future, managing the pace of borrowing and ensuring sustainable economic growth will be key to maintaining long-term stability. If well-managed, the projected rise in the debt-to-GDP ratio can support development, but mismanagement or unforeseen shocks could put fiscal stability at risk.

Global inflation is projected to moderate to 3.5% in 2024, with a further decline to 2.8% by 2026, aligning with central bank targets. However, inflation remains elevated, especially in Emerging Market and Developing Economies (EMDEs), where it is expected to reach 4.0% in 2024 before easing to 3.5% by 2026. Persistent inflationary pressures are driven by high energy and food prices, geopolitical tensions, and supply chain disruptions. Core inflation, particularly in the services sector, remains stubborn, requiring cautious global monetary policies, with interest rates projected to stay elevated through 2026.

1. Global Inflation Trends

• Global inflation is expected to moderate gradually, with an average of 3.5% in 2024, down from the high levels seen during the COVID-19 pandemic recovery. However, this pace of disinflation is slower than previously anticipated​.
• By 2026, global inflation is projected to stabilize around 2.8%, which is broadly consistent with central bank targets​.

2. Regional Inflation Dynamics

• Advanced Economies: Inflation in advanced economies is expected to decline gradually but will remain above pre-pandemic levels for some time. Central banks are likely to continue cautious monetary policies.
  • In the United States, inflation is expected to ease but remain slightly elevated, especially in the services sector.
  • The Euro Area is experiencing a slower inflation decline due to higher energy and food prices​.
• Emerging Market and Developing Economies (EMDEs): Inflation in EMDEs is projected to slow down, but persistent price pressures, particularly in food and energy, will keep inflation higher than desired.
  • EMDEs will see inflation converge toward 4.0% in 2024 and 3.5% by 2026​.
  • In Sub-Saharan Africa, inflation is expected to remain higher due to commodity price volatility and supply constraints​.

3. Core Inflation

• Core inflation (which excludes volatile items like food and energy) remains stubbornly high in many economies, driven by strong growth in services prices. This is particularly true in the United States and other advanced economies​.
• Service sector inflation is slower to recede because of ongoing wage pressures and sticky prices in areas like housing and healthcare​.

4. Factors Contributing to Persistent Inflation

• Geopolitical tensions and supply chain disruptions continue to create price volatility, especially in commodities like oil and gas.
• High energy prices have put upward pressure on inflation, although energy prices are expected to stabilize gradually​.
• Food inflation remains a concern, especially in developing economies. Fluctuations in global grain supplies and climate-related disruptions contribute to price spikes​.

5. Commodity Prices and Inflation

• Oil prices are projected to remain slightly elevated in 2024, averaging $84 per barrel, contributing to inflationary pressures in energy-dependent regions​.
• Agricultural prices, including food commodities, are expected to stabilize, but ongoing supply chain issues and climate disruptions could trigger temporary inflationary spikes​.

6. Monetary Policy and Inflation Control

• Central banks in both advanced and developing economies are expected to remain cautious about easing monetary policies due to persistent inflationary pressures.
  • Interest rates are expected to stay elevated for an extended period. Global policy rates are forecast to average around 4% through 2026, which is double the average of the previous two decades​.
• EMDEs face the challenge of balancing inflation control with supporting economic growth. Inflation targeting and careful monetary policy management remain crucial​.

7. Risks to Inflation

• There is a risk that inflation may persist longer than expected due to several factors:
  • Geopolitical tensions could lead to further supply disruptions, especially in energy markets.
  • Trade fragmentation and rising protectionism could lead to price increases for goods.
  • Climate-related natural disasters could disrupt food production, leading to spikes in food prices​.

Key Figures:

• Global inflation: Expected at 3.5% in 2024, moderating to 2.8% by 2026​.
• Advanced economies: Expected inflation is lower but will stabilize around 2.5% by 2026​.
• EMDEs: Inflation projected at 4.0% in 2024, gradually declining to 3.5% by 2026​.
• Oil prices: Forecast to average $84 per barrel in 2024, impacting energy-dependent economies​.

Summary:

• Global inflation is moderating but remains elevated, particularly in emerging markets and developing economies.
• Inflation pressures from energy and food prices are expected to ease gradually, but geopolitical risks and supply disruptions could trigger temporary inflationary spikes.
• Core inflation, particularly in services, remains persistent, necessitating cautious monetary policies by central banks globally.

Source: The Global Economic Prospects June 2024 report

Global growth is projected to stabilize at 2.6% in 2024, with only a slight rise to 2.7% by 2026, falling below the pre-pandemic average of 3.1%. Advanced economies are expected to grow by 1.5% in 2024, while Emerging Markets and Developing Economies (EMDEs) will see 4.0% growth, driven by regions like South Asia, with India leading at 6.6%. Low-income countries are forecasted to grow by 5.0% in 2024. Key risks include geopolitical tensions, high interest rates, and debt stress, particularly for EMDEs, which may hinder recovery.

1. Global Growth Overview

• Global GDP Growth is expected to stabilize at 2.6% in 2024 before increasing slightly to 2.7% in 2025-2026. This is significantly below the pre-pandemic average growth rate of 3.1% from 2010-2019​.
• By 2026, 80% of the world’s population will be living in countries where growth is slower than before COVID-19​.

2. Advanced Economies

• Growth in advanced economies is projected to be subdued, with an average growth of 1.5% in 2024 and increasing slightly to 1.7% in 2025. These figures are below the historical average of 2.0% for advanced economies​.
  • United States: Expected to grow by 2.5% in 2024, driven by resilient domestic demand and investment​.
  • Euro Area: Forecast to grow by only 0.7% in 2024, reflecting challenges from high inflation and energy prices​.
  • Japan: Growth is projected at 0.7% in 2024, slightly lower due to weak demand​.

3. Emerging Markets and Developing Economies (EMDEs)

• Growth in EMDEs is forecast to slow slightly to 4.0% in 2024 and remain steady at 4.0% in 2025-2026, below the 4.5% average of the previous decade​.
  • East Asia and Pacific: Growth is forecast at 4.8% in 2024, with China slowing to 4.8% due to weaker property sector demand​.
  • South Asia: Led by India, this region is expected to grow at 6.2% in 2024, with India alone forecast to expand at 6.6%, making it one of the fastest-growing regions​.
  • Sub-Saharan Africa: Projected to grow at 3.5% in 2024, and expected to rise to 4.0% by 2026​.

4. Growth in Low-Income Countries (LICs)

• Low-income countries are projected to grow at 5.0% in 2024, up from 3.8% in 2023, as they recover from commodity price shocks​.
• However, many low-income countries will remain poorer than pre-pandemic levels, and per capita income growth is expected to be just 3.0%​.

5. Global Growth Risks

• Geopolitical tensions, elevated global interest rates, and persistent inflation remain significant risks to global growth.
• About 40% of EMDEs are highly vulnerable to debt-related stress, which could hamper growth if global financial conditions tighten​.

Key Takeaways:

• Global growth remains below historical norms, with 2.6% expected in 2024, and 80% of the world’s economies will grow slower than before COVID-19​.
• The U.S. and India are bright spots in the global economy, while growth in China and Eurozone is slowing​.

Source: Global Economic Prospects June 2024 report

Tanzania's economy is projected to grow at a solid rate of 5-6% in 2024, outpacing Sub-Saharan Africa’s average growth of 3.5%. Key drivers of this growth include agriculture (28% of GDP), mining, and a recovering tourism sector. While global inflation, energy prices (with oil at $84 per barrel), and fiscal pressures pose risks, Tanzania’s inflation is expected to remain moderate compared to regional peers. Public debt remains sustainable, supported by large infrastructure projects like the Standard Gauge Railway. However, climate risks and global trade disruptions could impact future growth if not managed carefully.

1. Regional Context: Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA)

• Sub-Saharan Africa’s growth is projected to reach 3.5% in 2024, slightly up from 3.0% in 2023. The region is expected to experience continued growth, hitting 4.0% by 2026​.
• Tanzania, as part of this region, shares similar growth dynamics, heavily influenced by commodity prices, fiscal policies, and global trends like inflation and interest rates.

2. Tanzania’s Growth Outlook

• The World Bank forecast that Tanzania will maintain solid economic growth, particularly in sectors like agriculture, mining, and tourism.
• Growth in Tanzania is typically higher than the regional average. It has been projected to grow at around 5-6% annually, reflecting its diversified economy. Key growth drivers include:
  • Agriculture: Contributing about 28% of GDP, agriculture remains a vital part of Tanzania’s economy. Global trends in agricultural prices, projected to stabilize, could benefit Tanzania’s export revenues.
  • Mining: Tanzania is a significant exporter of gold, and global gold prices are expected to remain stable or grow slightly, which will support the mining sector.
  • Tourism: After a sharp decline during the pandemic, Tanzania’s tourism industry is recovering, contributing to higher GDP growth projections​.

3. Inflation and Fiscal Pressures in Tanzania

• Like many countries in Sub-Saharan Africa, Tanzania is expected to face moderate inflation pressures, influenced by global commodity prices, especially in food and energy. The region's inflation is expected to be higher than the global average but will stabilize in 2024.
• Tanzania’s inflation has been relatively moderate compared to some of its regional peers, thanks to government interventions and policies aimed at maintaining price stability. However, risks remain from:
  • Global energy prices: The report projects oil prices to average $84 per barrel in 2024, which could affect fuel import costs and inflation.
  • Food inflation: Tanzania’s agricultural sector could benefit from stable grain prices, helping to moderate food price inflation​.

4. Public Debt and Investment

• Tanzania’s public debt remains sustainable, but global financing conditions, including rising interest rates, pose risks. Tanzania, like other EMDEs, could face higher borrowing costs if global interest rates remain high, as expected (around 4% through 2026).
• The report emphasizes the importance of public investment in driving growth in emerging markets, and Tanzania's focus on infrastructure projects, such as the Standard Gauge Railway (SGR) and energy projects, will be crucial for sustained growth​.

5. Risks to Tanzania’s Economic Growth

• Geopolitical risks and global trade disruptions could impact Tanzania’s export sectors, especially in minerals and agricultural products.
• Climate-related risks are significant for Tanzania, where agriculture relies heavily on favorable weather conditions. Extreme weather events could disrupt food production, affecting both inflation and growth​.
• Debt distress risks in Sub-Saharan Africa remain elevated, with about 40% of EMDEs at risk. Although Tanzania is not currently in debt distress, careful fiscal management is essential to maintain sustainability​.

6. Tanzania’s Policy Responses

• To mitigate risks, Tanzania will need to focus on:
  • Strengthening public investment efficiency to ensure that infrastructure projects deliver high returns.
  • Diversifying its export base to reduce vulnerability to global commodity price swings.
  • Implementing fiscal policies that support growth while maintaining debt sustainability.

Key Figures for Tanzania (based on SSA and global trends):

• Growth: Projected at 5-6% in 2024, higher than the SSA average of 3.5%​(GEP-June-2024).
• Inflation: Expected to remain moderate but subject to global food and energy price fluctuations.
• Oil prices: $84 per barrel in 2024 could increase import costs for Tanzania, affecting inflation.
• Public investment: Tanzania’s large infrastructure projects are key to sustaining growth but require efficient management and fiscal responsibility.

Summary:

• Tanzania’s economy is expected to continue growing at a solid rate, outperforming the regional average. Growth drivers include agriculture, mining, and tourism.
• Risks from global inflation, commodity prices, and debt sustainability are present, but with sound policies, Tanzania can navigate these challenges.

Source: Global Economic Prospects June 2024 report

Global growth faces multiple risks, including geopolitical tensions, which may disrupt trade and raise energy prices beyond $84 per barrel in 2024. Trade fragmentation could slow expected trade growth to below 2.5%, while persistent inflation, projected at 3.5% in 2024, might force central banks to maintain high interest rates of around 4% through 2026, dampening investment. Additionally, 40% of EMDEs are at risk of debt distress, with tightening global financing further constraining growth. Climate-related disasters and slower growth in key economies, like China, also pose significant threats to recovery. Conversely, faster disinflation and stronger U.S. growth offer potential upside.

1. Geopolitical Tensions

• Geopolitical risks remain a significant factor that could destabilize global growth. Escalating tensions, especially in areas like the Middle East and Eastern Europe, could lead to increased volatility in commodity prices, particularly energy.
  • Disruptions in the supply of oil could push prices higher than the projected $84 per barrel in 2024, dampening global economic activity​.
  • Geopolitical conflicts can disrupt global trade networks and heighten uncertainty, which has already reached historically high levels in recent years due to trade restrictions and sanctions​.

2. Trade Fragmentation

• Trade fragmentation and rising protectionism continue to threaten global trade. Trade policy uncertainty in major economies has reached its highest level since 2000, partly due to elections and new trade measures aimed at restraining cross-border flows​.
  • Trade growth is expected to recover moderately to 2.5% in 2024, but further trade barriers could reduce this significantly​.
  • A breakdown in global supply chains, especially in critical sectors such as semiconductors and energy, could cause delays and price increases that slow down production and economic recovery.

3. Inflationary Pressures

• Persistent inflationary pressures, especially in core areas like services, pose a risk to growth, as central banks may need to maintain tight monetary policies for longer.
  • Global inflation is forecast at 3.5% in 2024, but if inflationary trends continue to be more stubborn than anticipated, central banks might delay easing interest rates​.
  • Higher-than-expected inflation could lead to continued high global interest rates (expected to remain around 4% through 2026, double the previous two decades' average), dampening investment and consumer spending​.

4. Higher-for-Longer Interest Rates

• The risk of higher-for-longer interest rates could further slow down global activity. Monetary policy rates in advanced economies, especially in the United States and Europe, are expected to stay elevated as long as inflationary pressures persist.
  • This is particularly problematic for emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs), as it increases borrowing costs and leads to capital outflows. EMDE borrowing costs remain high, with about 40% of EMDEs vulnerable to debt-related stress​.
  • If interest rates remain high, global growth could deviate downward by 0.3-0.5 percentage points over the next two years, and investments could suffer​.

5. Debt Vulnerability and Fiscal Stress

• Many countries, particularly low-income countries (LICs) and EMDEs, are facing elevated levels of debt distress. The report highlights that around 40% of EMDEs are at high risk of debt-related stress​.
  • As global financing conditions tighten, servicing this debt will become more difficult, constraining governments’ ability to invest in growth-stimulating projects.
  • Public investment could be significantly reduced as countries try to balance fiscal sustainability with their debt obligations​.

6. Climate-Related Natural Disasters

• Increasing frequency of climate-related natural disasters could severely impact growth, especially in vulnerable regions like Sub-Saharan Africa and small island developing states.
  • These disasters can disrupt agriculture, infrastructure, and production chains, leading to output losses and exacerbating food insecurity.
  • Food prices could spike if global agricultural supply chains are hit by extreme weather events, with potentially significant implications for inflation in vulnerable economies​.
  • The report emphasizes that climate-related risks can stall or even reverse the progress made in disinflation efforts​.

7. Slower Growth in Key Economies

• Weaker-than-anticipated growth in key economies, such as China, poses a significant downside risk to global growth.
  • China’s growth is expected to slow to 4.8% in 2024, and any deeper or more prolonged downturn in China’s property market or overall economy could negatively impact commodity-exporting countries that depend on Chinese demand​.
  • A more severe slowdown in advanced economies, such as the Eurozone (projected to grow at only 0.7% in 2024), could drag down global trade and investment​.

8. Upside Risk: Faster Disinflation and Stronger Growth in the U.S.

• On the upside, faster-than-expected disinflation could occur if global supply chains recover more quickly, or if there is more progress in technological adoption that improves productivity.
  • In such a scenario, central banks could ease monetary policy faster, leading to a stronger growth outlook, particularly in advanced economies​.
  • U.S. growth could outperform expectations if labor force participation continues to rise and investment in technology-driven sectors remains strong​.

Key Figures:

• Global inflation: Forecast at 3.5% in 2024, but inflation risks remain high due to ongoing supply chain disruptions and persistent service sector inflation​.
• Interest rates: Expected to average 4% through 2026, but could stay higher if inflation remains stubborn​.
• 40% of EMDEs are vulnerable to debt-related stress, which could slow down growth if financial conditions tighten​
• Trade growth: Projected at 2.5% in 2024, but fragmentation and geopolitical tensions could reduce this further​.

Summary of Risks to Global Growth:

• Geopolitical tensions and trade fragmentation are critical risks that could disrupt global supply chains and trade flows.
• Inflation remains a major concern, with the possibility of persistent inflation forcing central banks to maintain high interest rates, which could dampen investment and growth.
• Debt vulnerability in EMDEs and climate-related disasters pose significant challenges, while slower-than-expected growth in key economies like China could impact global demand for commodities.
• On the upside, faster disinflation and stronger growth in the U.S. could help mitigate some of the risks, improving the global growth outlook.

Source: Global Economic Prospects June 2024 report

Ukuaji wa uchumi wa Tanzania unatarajiwa kufikia 5-6% mwaka 2024, juu zaidi ya wastani wa kanda ya Afrika Kusini mwa Jangwa la Sahara (SSA) wa 3.5%. Sekta muhimu zinazochangia ukuaji ni kilimo (28% ya Pato la Taifa), madini, na utalii. Hata hivyo, Tanzania inakabiliwa na changamoto za mfumuko wa bei, haswa kutokana na mabadiliko ya bei za chakula na nishati duniani. Miradi ya miundombinu, kama vile Reli ya Kiwango cha Kimataifa (SGR), ni muhimu kwa ukuaji wa muda mrefu, lakini usimamizi mzuri wa fedha unahitajika kuhakikisha uendelevu wa deni.

1. Muktadha wa Kanda: Afrika-Kusini mwa Jangwa la Sahara (SSA)

• Ukuaji wa Afrika-Kusini mwa Jangwa la Sahara unakadiriwa kufikia 3.5% mwaka 2024, ikiwa juu kidogo kutoka 3.0% mwaka 2023. Kanda hii inatarajiwa kuendelea kukua, ikifikia 4.0% mwaka 2026​.
• Tanzania, kama sehemu ya kanda hii, inashiriki mienendo sawa ya ukuaji, ikichangiwa zaidi na bei za bidhaa, sera za kifedha, na mitindo ya kimataifa kama vile mfumuko wa bei na viwango vya riba.

2. Mtazamo wa Ukuaji wa Tanzania

• Benki ya Dunia na taasisi zingine zinatabiri kuwa Tanzania itaendelea kudumisha ukuaji wa uchumi thabiti, hasa katika sekta kama kilimo, madini, na utalii.
• Ukuaji wa Tanzania kwa kawaida ni wa juu zaidi kuliko wastani wa kikanda. Inakadiriwa kukua kwa wastani wa 5-6% kwa mwaka, ikionyesha uchumi wake wenye mchanganyiko. Vichocheo muhimu vya ukuaji ni:
  • Kilimo: Kikichangia takriban 28% ya Pato la Taifa, kilimo kinaendelea kuwa sehemu muhimu ya uchumi wa Tanzania. Mitindo ya kimataifa katika bei za mazao ya kilimo, ambazo zinatarajiwa kuwa thabiti, zinaweza kunufaisha mapato ya nje ya Tanzania.
  • Madini: Tanzania ni muuzaji mkubwa wa dhahabu, na bei za kimataifa za dhahabu zinatarajiwa kubaki thabiti au kuongezeka kidogo, ambayo itasaidia sekta ya madini.
  • Utalii: Baada ya kushuka kwa kasi wakati wa janga la COVID-19, sekta ya utalii ya Tanzania inarejea, na hivyo kuchangia makadirio ya juu ya ukuaji wa Pato la Taifa​.

3. Mfumuko wa Bei na Shinikizo la Kifedha Tanzania

• Kama ilivyo kwa nchi nyingi za Afrika-Kusini mwa Jangwa la Sahara, Tanzania inatarajiwa kukabiliwa na shinikizo la wastani la mfumuko wa bei, likiathiriwa na bei za kimataifa za bidhaa, hasa chakula na nishati. Mfumuko wa bei wa kanda unatarajiwa kuwa juu kuliko wastani wa dunia lakini utadhibitiwa mwaka 2024.
• Mfumuko wa bei Tanzania umekuwa wa wastani ukilinganishwa na majirani zake wa kikanda, kutokana na hatua za serikali za kudhibiti bei. Hata hivyo, hatari zinaweza kutokana na:
  • Bei za kimataifa za nishati: Ripoti inatabiri bei za mafuta kuwa wastani wa dola 84 kwa pipa mwaka 2024, ambayo inaweza kuongeza gharama za uagizaji wa mafuta na kusababisha mfumuko wa bei.
  • Mfumuko wa bei wa chakula: Sekta ya kilimo ya Tanzania inaweza kufaidika na bei thabiti za nafaka, jambo ambalo litaleta unafuu katika mfumuko wa bei ya chakula​.

4. Deni la Umma na Uwekezaji

• Deni la umma la Tanzania linaendelea kuwa endelevu, lakini hali za kifedha duniani, ikiwa ni pamoja na kuongezeka kwa viwango vya riba, ni hatari. Tanzania, kama ilivyo kwa nchi nyingine zinazoendelea (EMDEs), inaweza kukabiliwa na gharama kubwa za kukopa ikiwa viwango vya riba duniani vitabaki juu (takriban 4% hadi mwaka 2026).
• Ripoti inasisitiza umuhimu wa uwekezaji wa umma katika kuchochea ukuaji wa masoko yanayoibuka, na miradi ya miundombinu ya Tanzania, kama vile Reli ya Kiwango cha Kimataifa (SGR) na miradi ya nishati, itakuwa muhimu kwa ukuaji endelevu​.

5. Hatari kwa Ukuaji wa Uchumi wa Tanzania

• Hatari za kijiografia na usumbufu wa biashara duniani unaweza kuathiri sekta za usafirishaji bidhaa za Tanzania, hasa katika madini na mazao ya kilimo.
• Hatari zinazohusiana na hali ya hewa ni kubwa kwa Tanzania, ambapo kilimo kinategemea hali nzuri ya hewa. Matukio mabaya ya hali ya hewa yanaweza kuvuruga uzalishaji wa chakula, na hivyo kuathiri mfumuko wa bei na ukuaji​.
• Hatari ya madeni katika Afrika Kusini mwa Jangwa la Sahara inaendelea kuwa kubwa, na karibu 40% ya nchi za EMDEs zikiwa katika hatari ya deni. Ingawa Tanzania haiko katika hali ya msongo wa deni kwa sasa, usimamizi mzuri wa fedha za umma ni muhimu ili kudumisha uendelevu​.

6. Mwitikio wa Sera za Tanzania

• Ili kupunguza hatari hizi, Tanzania itahitaji kuzingatia:
  • Kuimarisha ufanisi wa uwekezaji wa umma ili kuhakikisha kuwa miradi ya miundombinu inaleta tija kubwa.
  • Kutafuta mbinu za kupanua wigo wa biashara zake za nje ili kupunguza utegemezi wa mabadiliko ya bei za bidhaa kimataifa.
  • Kutekeleza sera za kifedha zinazounga mkono ukuaji huku zikidumisha uendelevu wa deni.

Takwimu Muhimu za Tanzania (kutokana na mitindo ya SSA na kimataifa):

• Ukuaji wa Pato la Taifa: Unakadiriwa kuwa 5-6% mwaka 2024, juu kuliko wastani wa SSA wa 3.5%​.
• Mfumuko wa bei: Unatarajiwa kubaki wa wastani lakini unaweza kuathiriwa na mabadiliko ya bei za chakula na nishati duniani.
• Bei za mafuta: Dola 84 kwa pipa mwaka 2024 zinaweza kuongeza gharama za uagizaji wa mafuta Tanzania, na hivyo kuathiri mfumuko wa bei.
• Uwekezaji wa umma: Miradi mikubwa ya miundombinu ya Tanzania ni muhimu kwa ukuaji endelevu lakini inahitaji usimamizi mzuri wa fedha na uwajibikaji wa matumizi.

Muhtasari:

• Uchumi wa Tanzania unatarajiwa kuendelea kukua kwa kasi nzuri, ukiwa juu ya wastani wa kikanda. Vichocheo vya ukuaji ni pamoja na kilimo, madini, na utalii.
• Hatari za mfumuko wa bei duniani, bei za bidhaa, na uendelevu wa deni zinaweza kuwa changamoto, lakini kwa sera nzuri, Tanzania inaweza kuzivuka changamoto hizi.

Source: Global Economic Prospects June 2024 report