TICGL Economic Research (TERI) — Zanzibar Economic BriefSource: Bank of Tanzania & Office of the Chief Government Statistician, Zanzibar, June 2026
Tanzania Investment and Consultant Group Ltd · TICGL Economic
Zanzibar's Economy in 2026: Tourism and Cloves Power a Widening Surplus
Zanzibar's external surplus grew 21.2 percent on record tourist arrivals and a clove-export boom, even as inflation climbed to 5.5 percent and the government ran a TZS 175.7 billion fiscal deficit. Here's the full data picture for May 2026.
Zanzibar's headline inflation rose to 5.5 percent in May 2026, from 4.2 percent a year earlier, as food prices (up 9.9% y/y) and fuel-linked transport costs (up 5.1% y/y) outweighed easing pressure elsewhere in the basket. On the fiscal side, the government collected TZS 133.3 billion against a monthly target of TZS 216.0 billion (61.7% achievement), while a TZS 309 billion expenditure programme — nearly 60 percent of it development spending — produced a TZS 175.7 billion deficit financed domestically. The external sector was the standout performer: Zanzibar's current account surplus grew 21.2 percent to USD 864.8 million in the year ending May 2026, powered by a 21 percent jump in tourist arrivals and an extraordinary clove-export boom that lifted goods exports more than twofold.
9.9%
Food inflation, May-26
2.1%
Non-food inflation, May-26
USD 1,639.7m
Exports of goods & services
USD 785.2m
Imports of goods & services
USD 41.5m
Clove export value, 2026
Companion Reading
What's Next for Tanzania's Economy? The Policy Gaps Keeping USD 1 Trillion Out of Reach by 2050
Zanzibar's tourism-and-agriculture-led growth model is a useful case study within TICGL's broader 2050 growth-gap analysis — see what it will take to scale this success nationally.
Zanzibar's headline inflation climbed to 5.5 percent in May 2026, up from 5.0 percent in April and 4.2 percent a year earlier — moving further from the very low readings seen in mid-2025. Food inflation eased slightly from April's 10.1 percent but, at 9.9 percent, remains the dominant driver, while non-food inflation has been trending up as fuel costs pass through into transport (5.1%) and restaurant & accommodation prices (7.4%).
Headline, food & non-food inflation
Percent, year-on-year — the three most recent readings
Inflation by CPI group — May 2026
Annual % change, all 13 basket groups
Zanzibar CPI by group (weight %, annual inflation %)
Group (weight %)
May-25
Apr-26
May-26
Food & non-alcoholic beverages (41.9)
4.5
9.9
9.7
Housing, water, electricity, gas (25.8)
4.7
-0.4
1.2
Transport (9.1)
2.2
2.7
5.1
Furnishings & household maintenance (4.8)
4.0
2.2
2.4
Information & communication (4.2)
2.2
0.0
0.1
Clothing & footwear (6.3)
5.1
1.5
1.6
Restaurants & accommodation (1.4)
0.6
6.8
7.4
Alcoholic beverages & tobacco (0.2)
-0.2
4.4
4.3
Personal care & social protection (1.7)
4.9
1.9
0.8
Education (1.6)
3.8
1.5
0.3
Recreation, sport & culture (1.1)
4.6
2.6
2.6
Health (1.3)
1.5
0.6
0.6
Insurance & financial services (0.5)
0.0
0.0
0.0
Headline (100.0)
4.2
5.0
5.5
Food (40.5)
3.9
10.1
9.9
Non-food (59.5)
4.4
1.1
2.1
Source: Office of the Chief Government Statistician, Zanzibar (Table 3.1.1). Base: July 2022 = 100.
Section 3.2
Government budgetary operations: revenue lags target, deficit widens
Zanzibar's government resource envelope reached TZS 133.3 billion in May 2026 — just 61.7 percent of the monthly target — with domestic revenue of TZS 129.5 billion (69.9% of target) and TZS 3.8 billion in grants. Tax revenue supplied 90.5 percent of domestic revenue, while non-tax collections of TZS 12.4 billion reached only 63 percent of target. Total expenditure of TZS 309 billion — 59.6 percent of it development spending — outpaced resources, producing an overall deficit of TZS 175.7 billion financed through domestic borrowing.
Government resources — May 2026
TZS billion, by revenue source
Government expenditure — May 2026
TZS billion, by spending category
Zanzibar government resources, May 2026 (TZS billion)
Source
2025 Actual
2026 Estimate
2026 Actual
% of target
Tax on imports
26.3
30.8
22.7
73.7%
VAT & excise duties (local)
39.7
64.6
46.6
72.1%
Income tax
21.0
32.7
33.1
101.2%
Other taxes
19.2
37.4
14.7
39.3%
Non-tax revenue
10.2
19.6
12.4
63.3%
Grants
2.5
—
3.8
—
Total resource envelope
—
216.0
133.3
61.7%
Source: Ministry of Finance and Planning, Zanzibar (Chart 3.2.1, Chart 3.2.2). Other taxes include hotel and restaurant levies, tour operator levy, revenue stamps, airport/seaport service charges, road development fund and petroleum levy.
Watch this: Income tax is the only major revenue line ahead of target (101.2%), while imports-linked taxes and other levies fell well short — a pattern consistent with softer trade volumes weighing on collections even as tourism-linked income taxes outperform.
Section 3.3
External sector: a widening surplus built on tourism and trade
Zanzibar's current account surplus grew 21.2 percent to USD 864.8 million in the year ending May 2026, from USD 713.6 million a year earlier. Services exports — dominated by tourism — accounted for 96 percent of total goods-and-services exports, while a clove-export boom pushed goods exports up sharply despite the isles' persistently negative goods-trade balance.
Current account, year ending May
USD million, 2025 vs 2026p
Imports of goods by category
USD million, year ending May — capital imports more than doubled
Zanzibar current account summary (USD million, year ending May)
Item
2025
2026p
% change
Exports of goods
33.4
67.2
+101.2%
Imports of goods (fob)
532.7
660.1
+23.9%
Goods account balance
-499.3
-592.9
+18.7%
Services receipts
1,299.4
1,572.5
+21.0%
Services account balance
1,198.7
1,447.5
+20.8%
Goods & services balance
699.3
854.6
+22.2%
Primary income balance
12.7
8.8
-31.2%
Secondary income balance
1.5
1.5
-3.2%
Current account balance
713.6
864.8
+21.2%
Source: Tanzania Revenue Authority, banks and Bank of Tanzania computations (Table 3.3.1). p = provisional data.
Section 3.3 · Deep Dive
The clove-export boom driving goods exports
Clove export value jumped from just USD 3.3 million in the year ending May 2025 to an estimated USD 41.5 million in the year ending May 2026 — more than twelvefold — as both volumes (up roughly ninefold, to 6.4 thousand tonnes) and unit prices (up 36.2%, to USD 6,515.5 per tonne) rose sharply. Cloves alone now account for 61.7 percent of Zanzibar's total goods exports, overtaking manufactured goods and seaweed as the isles' leading export earner.
Goods exports by category
USD '000, year ending May — 2025 vs 2026p
Clove exports: value, volume & price
Indexed view — year ending May 2025 = 100
Zanzibar exports of goods by category (USD '000, year ending May)
Category
2025
2026p
% change
Cloves (traditional)
3,314.5
41,508.4
+1,152%
Manufactured goods
15,200.6
10,886.2
-28.4%
Other non-traditional exports
10,043.8
12,463.1
+24.1%
Seaweeds
3,438.5
1,632.2
-52.5%
Fish & fish products
1,386.5
752.7
-45.7%
Total goods exports
33,383.9
67,242.7
+101.4%
Source: Tanzania Revenue Authority and Bank of Tanzania computations (Table 3.3.2). p = provisional data.
Diversification watch: While the clove boom is a welcome windfall, seaweed and fish-product exports both fell by more than 45 percent over the same period — a reminder that Zanzibar's non-clove export base still needs strengthening to avoid over-reliance on a single, price-volatile commodity.
TICGL Analysis
What this means for investors and policymakers
1. Tourism remains the anchor
With services making up 96% of Zanzibar's exports and tourist arrivals up 21% y/y, hospitality, transport and ancillary services remain the highest-conviction growth sectors for investors on the isles.
2. Clove windfall needs a strategy
A twelvefold jump in clove export value is a rare opportunity to build price-stabilisation and value-addition capacity (processing, branding) before the current price cycle normalises.
3. Revenue collection needs strengthening
At 61.7% of target, Zanzibar's resource envelope shortfall — especially in import-linked taxes and "other taxes" — points to room for improved compliance and administration to reduce reliance on domestic borrowing.
TICGL Economic
Related TICGL insights & tools
Continue exploring Tanzania's economy — mainland and Zanzibar — with TICGL's research library, live dashboards and researcher programme.
Kiwango cha mfumko wa bei Zanzibar kiliongezeka hadi asilimia 5.5 mwezi Mei 2026, kutoka asilimia 4.2 mwaka mmoja uliopita, kikichangiwa zaidi na kupanda kwa bei za vyakula (asilimia 9.9) na gharama za usafirishaji (asilimia 5.1) kufuatia mtikisiko wa bei za mafuta duniani.
Kwa upande wa bajeti, Serikali ya Mapinduzi Zanzibar ilikusanya rasilimali za jumla ya shilingi bilioni 133.3 mwezi Mei 2026, sawa na asilimia 61.7 tu ya lengo la mwezi huo. Matumizi ya Serikali yalifikia shilingi bilioni 309, ambapo asilimia 59.6 ilielekezwa kwenye miradi ya maendeleo, hali iliyosababisha nakisi ya shilingi bilioni 175.7 iliyogharamiwa kwa mikopo ya ndani.
Upande wa biashara ya nje ndio uliofanya vizuri zaidi — ziada ya urari wa biashara wa nje (current account) iliongezeka kwa asilimia 21.2 hadi dola za Marekani milioni 864.8 kwa mwaka unaoishia Mei 2026, ikichagizwa na ongezeko la watalii kwa asilimia 21 (kufikia watalii 947,169) na ongezeko kubwa la mauzo ya karafuu nje — kutoka dola milioni 3.3 hadi dola milioni 41.5, sawa na ongezeko la zaidi ya mara kumi na mbili.
Maana yake: Utalii unaendelea kuwa nguzo kuu ya uchumi wa Zanzibar, na ongezeko la mauzo ya karafuu ni fursa kubwa ya kuongeza thamani ya mazao hayo. Hata hivyo, TICGL/TERI inashauri Serikali kuimarisha ukusanyaji wa mapato ya ndani ili kupunguza utegemezi wa mikopo katika kugharamia bajeti.
Tanzania External Sector Performance 2026: Current Account, Services Exports & Imports | TICGL
TICGL Economic · External Sector Monitor
Tanzania External Sector Performance: Current Account, Services Exports & Imports
A focused analysis of Tanzania's external sector for the year ending May 2026: the current account balance, services export receipts by category (travel, transport, other services), and services import payments — drawn from the Bank of Tanzania's June 2026 Monthly Economic Review.
📅 Period: Year ending May 2026 (with May 2026 monthly detail)🏢 Source: Tanzania Revenue Authority, Banks & Bank of Tanzania📋 Analysis by TICGL Economic Research
-USD 2,209.5m
Current Account Balance
Year ending May 2026
USD 8,051.5m
Services Receipts
+14.2% year on year
USD 3,370.1m
Services Payments
+8.3% year on year
+USD 4,681.4m
Net Services Surplus
Receipts minus payments
USD 5,538.8m
Gross FX Reserves
4.3 months import cover
Executive Summary
Tanzania's External Sector: The Year Ending May 2026 at a Glance
Tanzania's current account deficit widened to USD 2,209.5 million in the year ending May 2026, from USD 2,090.9 million a year earlier — a 5.7 percent increase — as elevated global freight and commodity prices, linked to the Middle East conflict, pushed import costs up faster than export earnings. The goods account deficit widened 18.8 percent to USD 5,410.6 million, even as goods exports grew a healthy 20.4 percent on the back of record gold receipts.
The bright spot was services trade: Tanzania is a consistent net exporter of services, and that surplus grew further in the year to May 2026. Services receipts rose 14.2 percent to USD 8,051.5 million, led by travel/tourism (USD 4,419.1 million, +9.5%) and transport services (USD 3,146.3 million, +16.0%), the latter reflecting Tanzania's growing role as a regional freight and logistics corridor. Services payments rose a more modest 8.3 percent to USD 3,370.1 million, driven mainly by higher freight payments (+17.9%) tied to the same global shipping cost pressures. The result: a net services surplus of USD 4,681.4 million, which continues to be one of the most important offsets to Tanzania's persistent goods trade deficit.
On the financing side, gross official foreign exchange reserves rose to USD 5,538.8 million, up from USD 5,136.7 million a year earlier, covering 4.3 months of projected imports — supported by strong export receipts (especially gold) and the Bank of Tanzania's continued gold purchase programme.
Must-Read TICGL Analysis
What's Next for Tanzania's Economy? The Policy Gaps Keeping TZS 1 Trillion Out of Reach by 2050
A resilient services sector — tourism and transport in particular — is one of Tanzania's clearest external competitive advantages. TICGL's flagship analysis examines the structural policy gaps that could determine whether this advantage translates into the country's Vision 2050 (Dira 2050) ambitions.
Tanzania's current account records all transactions in goods, services, primary income (investment income, compensation of employees) and secondary income (transfers) between residents and the rest of the world. In the year ending May 2026, the current account balance was a deficit of USD 2,209.5 million, 5.7 percent wider than the USD 2,090.9 million deficit recorded a year earlier.
-USD 2,209.5m
Current Account Balance (Year to May-26)
▼ widened 5.7% y/y
-USD 5,410.6m
Goods Account Balance
▼ deficit widened 18.8% y/y
+USD 4,681.4m
Services Account Balance
▲ surplus widened 18.8% y/y
Chart 1 — Current Account Components, Year Ending May (Millions of USD)
Source: Tanzania Revenue Authority, banks, and Bank of Tanzania calculations. p = provisional
Chart 2 — Current Account Balance: Monthly Snapshot (Millions of USD)
Source: Bank of Tanzania. Monthly figures are more volatile than the annual trend and should be read alongside the year-ending-May comparison above.
Table 1 — Current Account, Year Ending May (Millions of USD)
Item
2024
2025
2026p
% Change
Goods account (net)
-6,058.3
-4,555.6
-5,410.6
18.8
Exports (goods)
7,758.7
9,654.7
11,627.9
20.4
Imports (goods)
13,817.0
14,210.2
17,038.5
19.9
Services account (net)
4,174.6
3,939.6
4,681.4
18.8
Services receipts
6,499.4
7,051.5
8,051.5
14.2
Services payments
2,324.9
3,111.9
3,370.1
8.3
Balance on goods and services
-1,883.7
-615.9
-729.2
18.4
Primary income account (net)
-1,674.0
-2,001.5
-1,830.7
-8.5
Secondary income account (net)
649.7
526.5
350.4
-33.4
Current account balance
-2,907.9
-2,090.9
-2,209.5
5.7
The widening in the goods deficit was driven by import growth (19.9%) modestly outpacing export growth (20.4%) in absolute dollar terms — imports added USD 2,828.3 million over the year while exports added USD 1,973.2 million. Encouragingly, the primary income deficit narrowed 8.5 percent to USD 1,830.7 million, mainly reflecting lower interest payments to non-residents, partially offsetting the wider goods deficit. The secondary income surplus (largely remittances/personal transfers) fell 33.4 percent to USD 350.4 million.
Services receipts — Tanzania's earnings from selling services to non-residents — rose 14.2 percent to USD 8,051.5 million in the year ending May 2026, from USD 7,051.5 million a year earlier. Growth was led by travel and transport, Tanzania's two largest services export categories.
USD 4,419.1m
Travel (Tourism) Receipts
▲ +9.5% y/y
USD 3,146.3m
Transport Receipts
▲ +16.0% y/y
USD 486.1m
Other Services Receipts
▼ -2.3% y/y
Chart 3 — Services Receipts by Category, Year Ending May (Millions of USD)
Source: Banks and Bank of Tanzania computations. Other services include construction, insurance, financial, telecommunication, computer and information, charges for intellectual property, government, personal and other business services.
Chart 4 — Composition of Services Receipts, Year Ending May 2026p
Source: TICGL computations based on Bank of Tanzania data
Table 2 — Services Receipts by Category, Year Ending May (Millions of USD)
Category
2024
2025
2026p
% Change (2025→2026p)
Share of Receipts, 2026p
Travel (Tourism)
3,627.1
4,034.4
4,419.1
+9.5%
54.9%
Transport
2,284.5
2,519.5
3,146.3
+16.0%
39.1%
Other services
587.8
497.7
486.1
-2.3%
6.0%
Total services receipts
6,499.4
7,051.5
8,051.5
+14.2%
100.0%
Travel receipts grew broadly in line with visitor numbers: international tourist arrivals rose 5.9 percent to 2,298,900 in the year ending May 2026, with average spending per visitor also edging higher. Transport receipts — largely freight earnings from goods in transit through Tanzanian ports and corridors to neighbouring landlocked countries — grew faster still at 16.0 percent, underscoring Tanzania's expanding role as a regional trade and logistics hub even as global shipping costs rose. On a monthly basis, total services receipts were broadly flat at USD 647.5 million in May 2026 compared with the same month a year earlier.
Services payments — what Tanzania pays non-residents for services — rose 8.3 percent to USD 3,370.1 million in the year ending May 2026, from USD 3,111.9 million a year earlier. Unlike receipts, payments are dominated by transport (freight) costs rather than travel.
USD 1,691.8m
Transport Payments
▲ +16.8% y/y
USD 976.9m
Other Services Payments
▼ -2.7% y/y
USD 701.3m
Travel Payments
▲ +6.4% y/y
Chart 5 — Services Payments by Category, Year Ending May (Millions of USD)
Source: Banks and Bank of Tanzania computations. Other services include construction, insurance, financial, telecommunication, computer and information, government, personal and other business services.
Chart 6 — Composition of Services Payments, Year Ending May 2026p
Source: TICGL computations based on Bank of Tanzania data
Table 3 — Services Payments by Category, Year Ending May (Millions of USD)
Category
2024
2025
2026p
% Change (2025→2026p)
Share of Payments, 2026p
Transport
1,265.3
1,449.1
1,691.8
+16.8%
50.2%
Other services
679.8
1,003.9
976.9
-2.7%
29.0%
Travel
379.7
658.9
701.3
+6.4%
20.8%
Total services payments
2,324.9
3,111.9
3,370.1
+8.3%
100.0%
The rise in transport payments (freight costs) of 16.8 percent was consistent with — and largely explained by — the elevated goods import bill and higher global shipping costs arising from disruption to Gulf shipping routes and the Strait of Hormuz. On a monthly basis, services payments amounted to USD 278.8 million in May 2026, up from USD 267.0 million in May 2025, again largely reflecting higher freight payments.
Comparing receipts and payments category by category shows exactly where Tanzania's services trade surplus comes from — and where it is most exposed to rising global costs.
Chart 7 — Net Services Balance by Category, Year Ending May 2026p (Millions of USD)
Source: TICGL computations (Services receipts minus services payments), based on Bank of Tanzania data.
Table 4 — Net Services Balance by Category, Year Ending May 2026p (Millions of USD)
Category
Receipts
Payments
Net Balance
Travel (Tourism)
4,419.1
701.3
+3,717.8
Transport
3,146.3
1,691.8
+1,454.5
Other services
486.1
976.9
-490.8
Total services account
8,051.5
3,370.1
+4,681.4
Key insight: Travel (tourism) is by far Tanzania's most profitable services category, generating a net surplus of USD 3,717.8 million — more than 6 times receipts from transport net of its costs. "Other services" (construction, insurance, financial, telecom, IT and business services) is the only category running a net deficit, at -USD 490.8 million, indicating Tanzania remains a net importer of these professional and technical services.
5. Foreign Exchange Reserves: The Financing Context
Despite the wider current account deficit, Tanzania's external buffers strengthened. Gross official foreign exchange reserves rose to USD 5,538.8 million at end-May 2026, from USD 5,136.7 million a year earlier, sufficient to cover 4.3 months of projected imports of goods and services — above the national adequacy threshold. This buildup was underpinned by strong export receipts, particularly gold, and the Bank of Tanzania's continued gold purchase programme, which helped cushion the impact of the wider current account deficit on reserve accumulation.
Katika mwaka unaoishia Mei 2026, nakisi ya urari wa malipo ya kawaida (current account) ya Tanzania iliongezeka hadi Dola za Marekani milioni 2,209.5, kutoka Dola milioni 2,090.9 mwaka uliopita, kutokana na gharama kubwa za uagizaji bidhaa nje ikilinganishwa na kasi ya ukuaji wa mauzo nje.
Hata hivyo, sekta ya huduma iliendelea kuwa nguvu kubwa ya uchumi wa nje: mapato ya huduma (services receipts) yaliongezeka kwa asilimia 14.2 hadi Dola milioni 8,051.5, yakiongozwa na utalii (Dola milioni 4,419.1, ongezeko la asilimia 9.5) na usafirishaji (Dola milioni 3,146.3, ongezeko la asilimia 16.0). Idadi ya watalii wa kimataifa iliongezeka kwa asilimia 5.9 hadi watalii 2,298,900.
Kwa upande wa malipo ya huduma (services payments), Tanzania ilitumia Dola milioni 3,370.1, ongezeko la asilimia 8.3, likichangiwa zaidi na ongezeko la gharama za usafirishaji wa mizigo (freight) kwa asilimia 16.8, kutokana na changamoto za usafirishaji duniani. Kwa ujumla, Tanzania inaendelea kuwa na ziada kubwa katika biashara ya huduma — ziada ya wavu (net surplus) ya Dola milioni 4,681.4 — huku utalii ukiwa chanzo kikuu cha faida hii, na huduma nyingine (kama ujenzi, bima, fedha na TEHAMA) pekee ndizo zenye nakisi.
Akiba ya fedha za kigeni iliongezeka hadi Dola milioni 5,538.8, ikitosha kugharamia uagizaji wa bidhaa na huduma kwa miezi 4.3, ikisaidiwa na mauzo makubwa ya dhahabu nje ya nchi.
Kwa uchambuzi zaidi wa kina kuhusu fursa na changamoto za kisera zinazoathiri ushindani wa nje wa Tanzania, soma makala kamili ya TICGL: What's Next for Tanzania's Economy?
Primary source: Bank of Tanzania, Monthly Economic Review, June 2026 (Section 2.7 — External Sector Performance; Table 2.7.1 Current Account; Table 2.7.3 Services Receipts by Category; Chart 2.7.5 Service Payments), ISSN 0856-6844, www.bot.go.tz, compiled with data from the Tanzania Revenue Authority and commercial banks. Analysis and commentary by TICGL Economic Research. All 2026 figures are provisional (p) and subject to revision. This page covers the current account, services export receipts and services import payments only; goods trade detail, external debt and reserves management are addressed in separate TICGL analyses.
Tanzania Central Government Revenue & Expenditure — April 2026 Budget Analysis | TICGL
TICGL Economic · Public Finance Monitor
Tanzania Central Government Revenue & Expenditure — April 2026
A focused analysis of Tanzania's central government budgetary operations for April 2026: revenue collected by source, expenditure by category, and how actual performance compares against budget targets — drawn from the Bank of Tanzania's June 2026 Monthly Economic Review (cheques-issued basis, Tanzania Mainland).
📅 Reporting month: April 2026🏢 Source: Ministry of Finance & Bank of Tanzania📋 Analysis by TICGL Economic Research
TZS 3,112.0bn
Central Govt Revenue
107.2% of April target
TZS 3,457.2bn
Total Expenditure
83.5% of April target
TZS 2,690.6bn
Tax Revenue
110.2% of target
TZS 760.6bn
Development Expenditure
only 52.5% of target
TZS -214.9bn
Balance Before Grants
vs -1,111.0bn estimated
Executive Summary
Central Government Budgetary Operations: April 2026 at a Glance
Tanzania's central government outperformed its revenue target in April 2026, collecting TZS 3,111.97 billion against a monthly target of TZS 2,902.66 billion — 7.2 percent (TZS 209.3 billion) above target. The overperformance was driven almost entirely by tax revenue, which came in at TZS 2,690.63 billion, 10.2 percent above target, powered by taxes on imports (117.3% of target) and income tax (114.5% of target). Non-tax revenue was the one soft spot, collecting TZS 421.34 billion against a TZS 461.43 billion target — 8.7 percent short.
On the spending side, total central government expenditure of TZS 3,457.22 billion was 16.5 percent below the TZS 4,139.26 billion estimate for the month. Recurrent expenditure (wages, interest, and other recurrent costs) was executed close to plan at TZS 2,696.64 billion, but development expenditure was severely under-executed — only TZS 760.58 billion of a planned TZS 1,448.48 billion was spent (52.5% execution), largely because foreign-financed development projects disbursed just TZS 137.69 billion of a TZS 607.49 billion estimate. The combination of strong revenue collection and restrained (particularly development) spending narrowed the fiscal balance before grants to a deficit of TZS 214.93 billion in April, well inside the TZS 1,110.96 billion deficit that had been projected.
Must-Read TICGL Analysis
What's Next for Tanzania's Economy? The Policy Gaps Keeping TZS 1 Trillion Out of Reach by 2050
Strong tax revenue collection is only half the fiscal story — persistent under-execution of development expenditure, especially foreign-financed projects, is one of the structural issues TICGL examines in its flagship analysis of the policy gaps standing between Tanzania and its Vision 2050 (Dira 2050) ambitions.
Central government revenue reached TZS 3,111.97 billion in April 2026, equivalent to 96.0 percent of total government revenue (which also includes Local Government Authority own-source collections of TZS 130.32 billion) and 7.2 percent above the monthly target. Tax revenue continued to perform strongly, reflecting ongoing improvements in tax administration and compliance.
TZS 3,112.0bn
Central Govt Revenue
▲ 7.2% above target
TZS 2,690.6bn
Tax Revenue
▲ 10.2% above target
TZS 421.3bn
Non-Tax Revenue
▼ 8.7% below target
Chart 1 — Central Government Revenue by Source, April 2026 (Billions of TZS)
Source: Ministry of Finance and Bank of Tanzania computations (Table A2, cheques issued). 2026 actual figures are provisional.
Table 1 — Central Government Revenue by Source, April 2026 (Billions of TZS)
Revenue Source
April 2026 Estimate
April 2026 Actual
Variance
% of Target
Taxes on imports
904.55
1,060.67
+156.12
117.3%
Sales/VAT and excise on local goods
612.06
585.43
-26.63
95.6%
Income taxes
741.58
849.32
+107.74
114.5%
Other taxes
183.03
195.21
+12.18
106.7%
Tax revenue subtotal
2,441.23
2,690.63
+249.40
110.2%
Non-tax revenue
461.43
421.34
-40.09
91.3%
Central government revenue
2,902.66
3,111.97
+209.31
107.2%
LGA own sources
125.65
130.32
+4.67
103.7%
Total revenue (incl. LGAs)
3,028.30
3,242.29
+213.99
107.1%
Key insight: Taxes on imports (TZS 1,060.67bn) was the single largest revenue line in April 2026, overtaking income tax (TZS 849.32bn) — together these two lines contributed nearly 62 percent of central government revenue. VAT/excise on local goods was the only tax category to miss its target.
2. Central Government Revenue — Cumulative FY2025/26 (July 2025–April 2026)
Looking at the ten months to April 2026, central government revenue totalled TZS 33,294.80 billion (actual), ahead of the cumulative estimate of TZS 31,402.19 billion, and tracking toward the full-year budget of TZS 36,857.73 billion.
Chart 2 — Central Government Revenue: Full-Year Budget vs. Cumulative Performance (Billions of TZS)
Source: Ministry of Finance and Bank of Tanzania computations. Cumulative = July 2025–April 2026.
Table 2 — Revenue: Annual Budget vs. Cumulative Outturn, July 2025–April 2026 (Billions of TZS)
Revenue Item
2025/26 Full-Year Budget
Cumulative Estimate
Cumulative Actual
% of Cumulative Target
Taxes on imports
11,562.97
9,603.07
10,271.66
107.0%
Sales/VAT and excise on local goods
7,016.47
5,592.61
5,395.25
96.5%
Income taxes
11,367.88
9,113.54
11,163.31
122.5%
Other taxes
4,887.70
1,931.79
1,897.97
98.3%
Tax revenue
32,176.00
26,241.01
28,728.19
109.5%
Non-tax revenue
4,681.73
5,161.18
4,566.61
88.5%
Central government revenue
36,857.73
31,402.19
33,294.80
106.0%
LGA own sources
1,680.51
1,402.34
1,353.57
96.5%
Total revenue (incl. LGAs)
40,466.13
32,804.53
34,648.37
105.6%
Income tax has been the standout cumulative performer, running 22.5 percent above the ten-month target and already exceeding 98 percent of the full-year budget with two months of the fiscal year remaining — a sign that either economic activity or compliance is significantly outperforming the assumptions used to set the 2025/26 budget. Non-tax revenue and "other taxes" are the two areas trailing target on a cumulative basis.
Total central government expenditure (cheques issued) was TZS 3,457.22 billion in April 2026, against an estimate of TZS 4,139.26 billion — 83.5 percent budget execution. Recurrent expenditure was executed almost exactly to plan, while development expenditure fell well short.
TZS 3,457.2bn
Total Expenditure
▼ 83.5% of target
TZS 2,696.6bn
Recurrent Expenditure
▲ 100.2% of target
TZS 760.6bn
Development Expenditure
▼ only 52.5% of target
Chart 3 — Central Government Expenditure by Category, April 2026 (Billions of TZS)
Source: Ministry of Finance and Bank of Tanzania computations. 2026 actual figures are provisional.
Table 3 — Central Government Expenditure, April 2026 (Billions of TZS)
Expenditure Category
April 2026 Estimate
April 2026 Actual
Variance
% of Target
Wages and salaries
1,100.16
1,134.39
+34.23
103.1%
Interest payments — domestic
311.98
304.24
-7.74
97.5%
Interest payments — foreign
301.80
226.05
-75.75
74.9%
Interest payments subtotal
613.79
530.29
-83.49
86.4%
Other goods, services and transfers
976.84
1,031.96
+55.12
105.6%
Recurrent expenditure
2,690.78
2,696.64
+5.86
100.2%
Development expenditure — local
840.98
622.89
-218.10
74.1%
Development expenditure — foreign
607.49
137.69
-469.80
22.7%
Development expenditure & net lending
1,448.48
760.58
-687.90
52.5%
Total expenditure
4,139.26
3,457.22
-682.04
83.5%
Key insight: Foreign-financed development spending was the weakest link, executing at just 22.7 percent of its April target — a shortfall of TZS 469.8 billion in a single month. Recurrent spending, by contrast, was fully executed, with wages and other recurrent transfers slightly overshooting plan.
4. Central Government Expenditure — Cumulative FY2025/26 (July 2025–April 2026)
Cumulative expenditure for the ten months to April 2026 stood at TZS 38,792.07 billion, against a ten-month estimate of TZS 40,402.96 billion (96.0% execution) and a full-year budget of TZS 48,774.99 billion.
Chart 4 — Expenditure: Full-Year Budget vs. Cumulative Performance (Billions of TZS)
Source: Ministry of Finance and Bank of Tanzania computations. Cumulative = July 2025–April 2026.
Table 4 — Expenditure: Annual Budget vs. Cumulative Outturn, July 2025–April 2026 (Billions of TZS)
Expenditure Item
2025/26 Full-Year Budget
Cumulative Estimate
Cumulative Actual
% of Cumulative Target
Wages and salaries
10,917.47
10,890.00
10,976.94
100.8%
Interest payments (domestic + foreign)
6,493.72
5,600.39
4,679.59
83.6%
Other goods, services and transfers
7,088.61
9,103.63
9,968.60
109.5%
Recurrent expenditure
31,281.26
25,594.01
25,625.13
100.1%
Development expenditure — local
12,117.83
10,066.44
10,193.05
101.3%
Development expenditure — foreign
5,375.90
4,742.51
2,973.90
62.7%
Development expenditure & net lending
17,493.73
14,808.95
13,166.94
88.9%
Total expenditure
48,774.99
40,402.96
38,792.07
96.0%
On a cumulative basis, the shortfall is concentrated in foreign-financed development expenditure, running at just 62.7 percent of its ten-month target — a persistent pattern rather than a one-month event, pointing to structural disbursement delays from external development partners rather than a single-month anomaly. Locally-financed development spending and recurrent expenditure have both tracked at or slightly above plan.
Because revenue outperformed target while expenditure — particularly development spending — under-executed, the fiscal balance before grants improved markedly relative to plan in April 2026: a deficit of TZS 214.93 billion actual, against an estimated deficit of TZS 1,110.96 billion. The same pattern holds cumulatively for the ten months to April 2026.
Chart 5 — Central Government Revenue vs. Expenditure, April 2026 & Cumulative FY2025/26 (Billions of TZS)
Source: TICGL computations based on Ministry of Finance and Bank of Tanzania data (Table A2).
Table 5 — Fiscal Balance Before Grants (Billions of TZS)
Period
Total Revenue (incl. LGAs)
Total Expenditure
Balance Before Grants
April 2026 — Estimate
3,028.30
4,139.26
-1,110.96
April 2026 — Actual
3,242.29
3,457.22
-214.93
Cumulative Jul-25–Apr-26 — Estimate
32,804.53
40,402.96
-7,598.43
Cumulative Jul-25–Apr-26 — Actual
34,648.37
38,792.07
-4,143.71
Full-Year 2025/26 Budget
40,466.13
48,774.99
-8,308.86
The cumulative fiscal balance before grants (-TZS 4,143.71 billion) is currently running at roughly half the size of the estimated ten-month deficit (-TZS 7,598.43 billion) — a combination of stronger-than-budgeted revenue collection and slower-than-planned execution of foreign-financed development projects. This figure excludes grants and cash/other adjustments, which further affect the final overall balance and its financing.
6. Budget Execution Scorecard — April 2026 (% of Monthly Target Achieved)
The chart below ranks each major revenue and expenditure line by how close actual April 2026 performance came to its monthly target (100% = on target).
Chart 6 — Budget Execution Rate by Line Item, April 2026 (% of Target)
Source: TICGL computations based on Ministry of Finance and Bank of Tanzania data. Bars above 100% indicate over-performance (green for revenue, amber caution for expenditure over-runs); bars below 100% indicate under-performance.
Chart 7 — Composition of Central Government Expenditure, April 2026 Actual
Source: TICGL computations based on Table A2 (Ministry of Finance / Bank of Tanzania)
Mwezi Aprili 2026, Serikali Kuu ya Tanzania ilikusanya mapato ya Shilingi bilioni 3,111.97, sawa na asilimia 107.2 ya lengo la mwezi lililokuwa Shilingi bilioni 2,902.66. Ukusanyaji huu mzuri ulichangiwa zaidi na kodi za uagizaji bidhaa nje ya nchi (asilimia 117.3 ya lengo) na kodi ya mapato (asilimia 114.5 ya lengo), huku mapato yasiyo ya kikodi pekee yakishindwa kufikia lengo (asilimia 91.3 tu).
Kwa upande wa matumizi, Serikali ilitumia jumla ya Shilingi bilioni 3,457.22, sawa na asilimia 83.5 tu ya lengo la Shilingi bilioni 4,139.26. Matumizi ya kawaida (mishahara, riba na uendeshaji) yalitekelezwa karibu kikamilifu (asilimia 100.2), lakini matumizi ya maendeleo yalisuasua sana, yakifikia asilimia 52.5 tu ya lengo — hasa kutokana na miradi ya maendeleo inayofadhiliwa na wahisani wa nje kutolewa kwa kiwango cha asilimia 22.7 pekee ya lengo la mwezi huo.
Kwa mtazamo wa miezi kumi (Julai 2025 hadi Aprili 2026), mapato ya Serikali Kuu yalifikia Shilingi bilioni 33,294.80, yakizidi lengo la kipindi hicho, huku matumizi yakiwa Shilingi bilioni 38,792.07, chini kidogo ya lengo. Hali hii ilipunguza pengo la nakisi ya bajeti (kabla ya misaada) hadi Shilingi bilioni 4,143.71, ikilinganishwa na nakisi iliyokadiriwa ya Shilingi bilioni 7,598.43.
Kwa uchambuzi zaidi wa kina kuhusu changamoto za kisera zinazoathiri utekelezaji wa miradi ya maendeleo na malengo ya Dira 2050, soma makala kamili ya TICGL: What's Next for Tanzania's Economy?
Primary source: Bank of Tanzania, Monthly Economic Review, June 2026 (Table A2 — Central Government Operations, Cheques Issued, Tanzania Mainland), ISSN 0856-6844, www.bot.go.tz, using Ministry of Finance data. Analysis and commentary by TICGL Economic Research. All April 2026 and cumulative FY2025/26 actual figures are provisional and subject to revision. This page covers central government revenue and expenditure only; financing (foreign and domestic borrowing), grants, debt, inflation, monetary policy and external sector data are addressed in separate TICGL analyses.
Tanzania Financial Markets Review June 2026: Government Securities & Interbank Cash Market Analysis | TICGL
TICGL Economic • Financial Markets Watch
Tanzania Financial Markets Review — June 2026
A TICGL deep-dive into Tanzania's financial markets, based on the Bank of Tanzania Monthly Economic Review (June 2026 issue) — with primary focus on the Government securities market (Treasury bills & bonds) and the interbank cash market, alongside the inflation and monetary policy backdrop that shapes them for May 2026.
📅 Published: 11 July 2026🏛️ Source: Bank of Tanzania Monthly Economic Review, June 2026✍️ By TICGL Research Desk
Executive Summary
Tanzania's financial markets in May 2026 reflected ample banking-system liquidity and a Bank of Tanzania holding steady on policy amid a difficult external backdrop shaped by the Middle East conflict and elevated oil prices. Headline inflation edged up to 4.2 percent, staying comfortably inside the national, EAC and SADC convergence bands, while the Bank held its Central Bank Rate at 5.75 percent for a third consecutive quarter. The Government securities market saw short-term paper heavily oversubscribed even as yields continued to ease, while the interbank cash market saw lower turnover and softer rates — both consistent with comfortable bank liquidity positions.
Headline Inflation (May 2026)
4.2%
▲ from 4.0% in Apr-26
Central Bank Rate
5.75%
Held for Q4 2025/26
7-Day IBCM Rate (avg)
5.92%
Within ±150bps corridor
Overall T-Bills Yield
4.74%
▼ from 5.06% in Apr-26
Overall IBCM Rate
6.14%
▼ from 6.26% in Apr-26
M3 Money Supply Growth
25.2%
▲ from 22.0% in Apr-26
Private Sector Credit Growth
23.2%
vs 23.6% in Apr-26
TZS/USD Exchange Rate (avg)
2,616.88
+3.02% y/y appreciation
Government securities market: Two Treasury bills auctions (combined tender TZS 498.1bn) attracted bids of TZS 1,330.3bn — over 2.6x oversubscribed — while 15- and 20-year Treasury bonds drew TZS 324.9bn in bids against a TZS 401.8bn tender, pointing to soft demand at the long end even as short-term yields fell.
Interbank cash market (IBCM): Total transactions eased to TZS 1,732.7bn from TZS 2,567.8bn in April, with 7-day tenor transactions dominating at 63.8% of volume; the overall IBCM rate slipped to 6.14% from 6.26%, tracking comfortably within the Bank's policy corridor.
Monetary policy transmission: The narrowed ±150bps CBR corridor is working as intended — the 7-day IBCM rate averaged 5.92% in May, staying tightly anchored around the 5.75% policy rate.
Exchange rate: The shilling depreciated marginally month-on-month to an average of TZS 2,616.88/USD in May 2026, but strengthened by 3.02% on an annual basis — a reversal from the 3.82% depreciation recorded a year earlier.
Must-Read TICGL Analysis
What's Next for Tanzania's Economy? The Policy Gaps Keeping $1 Trillion Out of Reach by 2050
Before diving into the market data below, read TICGL's flagship analysis on the structural and policy gaps standing between Tanzania and its Vision 2050 ambitions — essential context for interpreting this month's monetary, fiscal and market developments.
Headline inflation rose to 4.2 percent in May 2026, from 4.0 percent in April 2026 and 3.2 percent a year earlier, remaining within the national target band and the SADC/EAC convergence benchmarks. The increase was driven mainly by the pass-through of elevated global fuel prices to transport costs — transport inflation jumped to 11.9 percent in May from 9.2 percent in April. Core inflation (excluding unprocessed food and energy) rose to 3.4 percent, remaining the principal contributor to headline inflation at 2.6 percentage points. Food inflation eased marginally to 5.6 percent as staple crop prices stabilised, while energy, fuel and utilities inflation moderated to 5.0 percent even though retail pump prices stayed elevated on Gulf-conflict disruption to global oil markets.
Chart 1: Tanzania Inflation Trend — Headline, Food, Energy & Core (Jan 2025 – May 2026)
Source: National Bureau of Statistics; Bank of Tanzania computations.
Table 1: Inflation Development — Selected Groups (Annual % Change)
Main Group
Weight (%)
May-25
Apr-26
May-26
All items (headline inflation)
100.0
3.2
4.0
4.2
Food and non-alcoholic beverages
28.2
5.6
5.7
5.6
Core inflation
73.9
2.1
3.1
3.4
Non-core inflation
26.1
5.6
6.3
6.3
Energy, fuel and utilities
5.7
6.1
5.3
5.0
Transport
14.1
1.7
9.2
11.9
Housing, water, electricity, gas & other fuels
15.1
3.4
1.7
0.7
Services
37.2
1.0
4.0
4.7
Goods
62.8
4.2
4.0
4.0
Source: National Bureau of Statistics and Bank of Tanzania computations (Table 2.1.1, BOT MER June 2026).
TICGL take: With headline inflation still well inside target and adequate domestic food supply plus fuel subsidies (introduced April–May 2026) cushioning cost pressures, the Bank of Tanzania retains room to keep policy accommodative. The key watch-item is transport/energy pass-through if the Strait of Hormuz disruption persists.
2. Monetary Policy Stance
At its April 2026 meeting, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) maintained the Central Bank Rate (CBR) at 5.75 percent for the quarter ending June 2026, balancing inflation and growth risks amid heightened Middle East geopolitical tensions. The CBR corridor was narrowed to ±150 basis points (from ±200bps) to sharpen policy transmission. The 7-day interbank cash market rate averaged 5.92 percent in May — comfortably inside the corridor — confirming effective transmission of the policy signal. The Bank continued to inject liquidity mainly via reverse repo operations, with sales rising to TZS 399.5 billion in May from TZS 379.7 billion in April, underscoring an accommodative posture in support of credit growth.
Chart 3: Brent Crude Oil Price — Monthly Average (USD/barrel)
Source: World Bank Commodity Markets; U.S. EIA (Table A8).
3. Financial Markets Deep Dive: Government Securities & Interbank Cash Market
This section is TICGL's primary focus for the June 2026 review cycle: a detailed look at the two markets that most directly signal domestic liquidity conditions and the cost of government borrowing — the Government securities market (Treasury bills and bonds) and the Interbank cash market (IBCM).
3.1 Government Securities Market
In May 2026, the Government securities market performed satisfactorily. Short-term securities registered high oversubscription, more than offsetting undersubscription at the longer end of the yield curve, in line with adequate liquidity in the banking system.
Table 2: May 2026 Auction Results Summary
Instrument
Tender Size (TZS bn)
Bids Received (TZS bn)
Successful (TZS bn)
Subscription Rate
Weighted Avg. Yield
Treasury Bills (combined, 2 auctions)
498.1
1,330.3
499.8
267%
4.74% (from 5.06% in Apr-26)
Treasury Bonds — 15-year
165.5
324.9 (combined)
235.1 (combined)
81% (combined)
10.39%
Treasury Bonds — 20-year
236.3
—
—
—
10.43%
Source: Bank of Tanzania (Section 2.4, BOT MER June 2026). The 15- and 20-year bond tenders were combined at TZS 401.8bn against TZS 324.9bn in bids and TZS 235.1bn allotted.
Chart 4: Treasury Bills Yields by Tenor (Weighted Average Yield, %) — Mar 2025 to May 2026
Source: Bank of Tanzania (Table A4: Interest Rates Structure).
Chart 5: Treasury Bonds Yield to Maturity by Tenor (%) — Mar 2025 to May 2026
Source: Bank of Tanzania (Table A4: Interest Rates Structure).
Chart 6: Tanzania Government Securities Yield Curve — Snapshot, May 2026
Source: Bank of Tanzania (Table A4: Interest Rates Structure, BOT MER June 2026).
TICGL take: The short end of the curve has fallen sharply — the overall T-bills rate has more than halved from 8.89% in May 2025 to 4.74% in May 2026 — reflecting ample liquidity and strong appetite for short-dated paper. The long end has also compressed materially (25-year bonds from 15.29% to 11.99%), but oversubscription at the short end versus undersubscription at longer tenors signals investors still prefer to stay short given global uncertainty. This is a favourable window for government to term out short-dated domestic debt, and for private issuers benchmarking against the sovereign curve.
3.2 Interbank Cash Market (IBCM)
The Interbank Cash Market continued to facilitate liquidity distribution among banks, with total market transactions of TZS 1,732.7 billion in May 2026, down from TZS 2,567.8 billion in April. Transactions with a 7-day maturity continued to dominate, accounting for 63.8 percent of total volume. The overall IBCM rate eased slightly to 6.14 percent from 6.26 percent in April 2026, tracking within the Bank's ±150bps CBR corridor and confirming smooth policy transmission.
Chart 7: Interbank Cash Market Rates — Overnight, 2–7 Day & Overall (%) — Mar 2025 to May 2026
Source: Bank of Tanzania (Table A4: Interest Rates Structure).
Chart 8: IBCM Total Transactions vs. Reverse Repo Sold (TZS bn) — Apr vs May 2026
Source: Bank of Tanzania (Section 2.2 & 2.4).
Chart 9: IBCM Volume Share by Maturity — May 2026
Source: Bank of Tanzania (Chart 2.4.2).
Table 4: Interbank Cash Market Rates by Maturity (%)
Maturity
Mar-26
Apr-26
May-26
Overnight
6.17
6.15
5.94
2 to 7 days
6.25
6.18
5.96
8 to 14 days
6.53
6.33
6.48
15 to 30 days
6.85
6.79
6.58
31 to 60 days
7.20
6.92
6.79
61 to 90 days
8.50
7.12
6.79
91 to 180 days
8.07
8.77
7.27
Overall IBCM rate
6.32
6.26
6.14
Source: Bank of Tanzania (Table A4). REPO rate held at 5.75%; Reverse REPO rate at 5.75%; Lombard rate at 7.75% throughout the period.
Table 5: Reverse Repo Operations (TZS billion)
Period
Reverse Repo Sold
April 2026
379.7
May 2026
399.5
Source: Bank of Tanzania (Section 2.2, Chart 2.2.2).
TICGL take: Lower IBCM turnover alongside a slightly lower overall rate suggests banks entered May 2026 with more comfortable liquidity buffers, reducing the need for interbank borrowing even as the Bank kept injecting liquidity through reverse repos. The dominance of 7-day tenor transactions (63.8% of volume) is consistent with banks managing statutory reserve requirements around the CBR corridor rather than taking directional liquidity positions.
3.3 Interbank Foreign Exchange Market (IFEM)
Liquidity conditions in the IFEM remained adequate in May 2026, supported by seasonal currency inflows, particularly from gold exports. Total market turnover rose to USD 119.3 million from USD 64.6 million in April, and the Bank intervened by auctioning USD 44 million (up from USD 15.3 million), in line with its Foreign Exchange Intervention Policy. Despite higher forex liquidity, the shilling depreciated marginally month-on-month, trading at an average of TZS 2,616.88/USD versus TZS 2,612.46/USD in April — though it strengthened 3.02% on an annual basis, a turnaround from 3.82% annual depreciation a year earlier.
Chart 10: TZS/USD Exchange Rate — End of Period, May 2025 to May 2026
Source: Bank of Tanzania (Table A10).
Table 6: IFEM Snapshot — April vs May 2026
Indicator
Apr-26
May-26
Total market turnover (USD million)
64.6
119.3
BOT net auction/sale (USD million)
15.3
44.0
Weighted average exchange rate (TZS/USD)
2,612.46
2,616.88
Source: Bank of Tanzania (Section 2.4, Chart 2.4.3).
Related TICGL Research & Tools
Deepen your understanding of Tanzania's economic trajectory with these related TICGL resources:
Tanzania Financial MarketsGovernment SecuritiesInterbank Cash MarketMonetary PolicyInflationPublic DebtVision 2050
Muhtasari kwa Kiswahili
Ripoti ya Kila Mwezi ya Kiuchumi ya Benki Kuu ya Tanzania (BOT) ya Juni 2026 inaonesha kuwa mfumuko wa bei nchini Tanzania uliongezeka hadi asilimia 4.2 mwezi Mei 2026, kutoka asilimia 4.0 mwezi Aprili, ukisukumwa hasa na ongezeko la bei za mafuta duniani kufuatia mgogoro wa Mashariki ya Kati. Hata hivyo, kiwango hicho bado kiko ndani ya lengo la Taifa na vigezo vya EAC na SADC.
Sera ya fedha: Benki Kuu iliendelea kutunza Kiwango cha Riba cha Benki Kuu (CBR) katika asilimia 5.75 kwa robo ya mwaka inayoishia Juni 2026.
Soko la Hatifungani za Serikali: Dhamana za muda mfupi (Treasury bills) ziliendelea kupokelewa vizuri sana na wawekezaji (ombi la TZS bilioni 1,330.3 dhidi ya lengo la TZS bilioni 498.1), huku riba (yield) ikiendelea kushuka hadi wastani wa asilimia 4.74. Hatifungani za muda mrefu (miaka 15 na 20) zilipokea maombi kidogo zaidi ya lengo.
Soko la Fedha baina ya Benki (Interbank Cash Market): Miamala ilipungua hadi TZS bilioni 1,732.7 kutoka TZS bilioni 2,567.8 mwezi Aprili, huku riba ya jumla ikishuka hadi asilimia 6.14. Miamala ya siku 7 iliendelea kutawala soko, ikichukua asilimia 63.8 ya miamala yote.
Soko la Fedha za Kigeni baina ya Benki (IFEM): Mzunguko wa fedha za kigeni uliongezeka hadi Dola milioni 119.3 kutoka Dola milioni 64.6 mwezi Aprili, huku Shilingi ikishuka kidogo hadi wastani wa TZS 2,616.88 kwa Dola moja, lakini ikiimarika kwa asilimia 3.02 ukilinganisha na mwaka jana.
Kwa uchambuzi wa kina zaidi kuhusu mapengo ya kisera yanayozuia uchumi wa Tanzania kufikia thamani ya Dola trilioni 1 ifikapo 2050, soma makala maalum ya TICGL: What's Next for Tanzania's Economy?
Primary source: Bank of Tanzania, Monthly Economic Review, June 2026 (covering data through May 2026). Compiled, analysed and contextualised by the TICGL Research Desk (Tanzania Investment and Consultant Group Ltd / Tanzania Economic Research Institute). Figures marked "p" are provisional and "r" are revised, per BOT convention. This page is for general information purposes and does not constitute investment advice.
Tanzania Lending & Deposit Interest Rates Analysis – May 2026 | TICGL
TICGL Economic • Interest Rate Watch
Tanzania Lending & Deposit Interest Rates Analysis — May 2026
A focused TICGL analysis of Tanzania's bank interest rate structure: overall and negotiated lending rates, lending rates by tenor, deposit rates by tenor, and the interest rate spread — based on Bank of Tanzania data through May 2026.
📅 Published: 12 July 2026🏛️ Source: Bank of Tanzania Monthly Economic Review, June 2026✍️ By TICGL Research Desk
Executive Summary
Tanzania's bank interest rate structure held broadly stable through May 2026, with modest declines across both lending and deposit rates. The overall lending rate was little changed at 15.32 percent (from 15.33% in April), while the negotiated rate for prime customers eased more sharply to 11.90 percent from 12.56 percent — a signal that banks are competing harder for their best borrowers even as headline pricing stays flat. On the deposit side, the overall time deposit rate eased to 8.43 percent from 8.54 percent, while the negotiated deposit rate moderated to 11.25 percent. The resulting short-term interest rate spread narrowed to 5.22 percentage points, from 5.50 points in April 2026 — the tightest spread recorded since at least March 2025, pointing to gradually improving intermediation efficiency in the banking sector.
Overall Lending Rate
15.32%
vs 15.33% in Apr-26
Overall Time Deposit Rate
8.43%
▼ from 8.54% in Apr-26
Short-Term Interest Spread
5.22 pts
▼ from 5.50 pts in Apr-26
Negotiated Lending Rate
11.90%
▼ from 12.56% in Apr-26
Negotiated Deposit Rate
11.25%
▼ from 11.37% in Apr-26
Savings Deposit Rate
2.85%
▼ from 2.91% in Apr-26
12-Month Deposit Rate
10.17%
▲ from 9.81% in Apr-26
Long-Term Lending (3–5yr)
14.43%
▼ from 14.56% in Apr-26
Lending rates: Short-term lending (up to 1 year) eased to 15.38% while medium-term (1–2 year) lending actually rose to 17.11% from 17.19% — the highest tenor on the curve — reflecting banks pricing in duration risk more aggressively than short-dated risk.
Deposit rates: The 12-month deposit rate rose to a 15-month high of 10.17%, even as the overall (blended) time deposit rate fell — suggesting banks are paying up more selectively for longer-dated, stickier deposits while short-tenor deposit pricing eased.
Spread compression: The lending-deposit spread has now narrowed for two consecutive months (5.85 → 5.50 → 5.22 percentage points since March 2026), consistent with the Bank of Tanzania's accommodative liquidity stance feeding through to cheaper credit intermediation.
Negotiated vs. posted rates: The gap between the overall lending rate (15.32%) and the negotiated lending rate (11.90%) has widened to 3.42 percentage points — the largest gap in the 15-month series — underscoring how much more competitively banks price loans for their strongest corporate and prime clients versus posted/list rates.
Must-Read TICGL Analysis
What's Next for Tanzania's Economy? The Policy Gaps Keeping $1 Trillion Out of Reach by 2050
Before diving into the interest rate data below, read TICGL's flagship analysis on the structural and policy gaps standing between Tanzania and its Vision 2050 ambitions — essential context for interpreting the cost of credit and bank intermediation trends discussed here.
Tanzania's overall lending rate stood at 15.32 percent in May 2026, essentially flat month-on-month. Beneath that headline figure, however, the lending curve by tenor tells a more nuanced story: short-term lending (up to 1 year) eased to 15.38%, medium-term (1–2 year) lending climbed to a series-high 17.11%, medium-term (2–3 year) lending eased slightly to 15.60%, long-term (3–5 year) lending fell to 14.43%, and term loans over 5 years eased to 14.08%. This "hump" in the middle of the curve — where 1–2 year money is priced above both shorter and longer tenors — suggests banks see the greatest duration/credit risk in that medium horizon.
Chart 1: Tanzania Lending Rates by Tenor (%) — March 2025 to May 2026
Source: Bank of Tanzania (Table A4: Interest Rates Structure).
Table 1: Lending Interest Rates by Tenor (%), Selected Months
Tenor
May-25
Sep-25
Jan-26
Mar-26
Apr-26
May-26
Short-term (up to 1 year)
15.96
15.52
15.49
15.45
15.31
15.38
Medium-term (1–2 years)
16.35
16.26
16.73
16.53
17.19
17.11
Medium-term (2–3 years)
15.24
15.19
14.97
15.31
15.63
15.60
Long-term (3–5 years)
14.19
14.26
14.05
13.95
14.56
14.43
Term loans (over 5 years)
14.17
14.66
14.24
14.30
13.96
14.08
Overall lending rate
15.18
15.18
15.10
15.11
15.33
15.32
Source: Bank of Tanzania (Table A4: Interest Rates Structure, BOT MER June 2026).
TICGL take: The medium-term (1–2 year) segment is now the most expensive tenor on the lending curve at 17.11% — over 250 basis points above the overall average. For businesses planning working-capital or asset-financing facilities, structuring around shorter (≤1 year, rolled over) or longer (3–5 year) tenors may currently offer materially better pricing than 1–2 year facilities.
2. Deposit Interest Rates by Tenor
The overall time deposit rate eased to 8.43 percent in May 2026 from 8.54 percent in April. Within the deposit ladder, shorter tenors softened — the 1-month rate fell to 8.34% and the 3-month rate rose to 10.52% (its highest point in the 15-month series) — while the 12-month rate climbed to 10.17%, its highest level since at least March 2025. The savings deposit rate, which anchors the bottom of the curve, eased to 2.85%.
Chart 2: Tanzania Deposit Rates by Tenor (%) — March 2025 to May 2026
Source: Bank of Tanzania (Table A4: Interest Rates Structure).
Table 2: Deposit Interest Rates by Tenor (%), Selected Months
Tenor
May-25
Sep-25
Jan-26
Mar-26
Apr-26
May-26
Savings deposit rate
2.52
2.92
2.94
2.89
2.91
2.85
1-month deposit
10.47
9.65
8.96
8.65
9.06
8.34
2-month deposit
9.25
9.28
9.56
9.34
9.67
8.65
3-month deposit
9.85
9.61
9.43
9.56
9.01
10.52
6-month deposit
9.82
10.12
10.20
10.51
10.35
9.87
12-month deposit
9.72
9.84
9.70
9.60
9.81
10.17
24-month deposit
7.49
7.63
7.11
7.03
8.20
7.69
Overall time deposit rate
8.58
8.50
8.33
8.33
8.54
8.43
Source: Bank of Tanzania (Table A4: Interest Rates Structure, BOT MER June 2026).
TICGL take: Savers locking in 12-month deposits are now earning materially more (10.17%) than those on shorter 1- or 2-month placements (8.34% / 8.65%) — the widest 12-month vs. 1-month premium since early 2025. For treasury and cash-management decisions, this favours term deposits over rolling short-tenor placements at the margin.
3. Interest Rate Spread Analysis
The short-term interest rate spread — defined by the Bank of Tanzania as the short-term (up to 1 year) lending rate less the 12-month deposit rate — narrowed to 5.22 percentage points in May 2026, from 5.50 points in April and 5.85 points in March. This is the narrowest spread recorded in the current data series, and reflects both softer short-term lending pricing and a simultaneously higher 12-month deposit rate.
Chart 3: Overall Lending vs. Overall Deposit Rate, and Spread (Percentage Points) — March 2025 to May 2026
Source: Bank of Tanzania (Table A4); spread computed by TICGL as Overall Lending Rate minus Overall Time Deposit Rate.
Table 3: Short-Term Interest Rate Spread (%), Dec 2025 – May 2026
Indicator
Dec-25
Jan-26
Feb-26
Mar-26
Apr-26
May-26
Short-term lending rate (up to 1 year)
15.46
15.49
15.41
15.45
15.31
15.38
12-month deposit rate
9.58
9.70
9.82
9.60
9.81
10.17
Short-term interest spread
5.88
5.79
5.59
5.85
5.50
5.22
Source: Bank of Tanzania (Table 2.3.1, BOT MER June 2026).
TICGL take: A narrowing spread is a favourable signal for financial intermediation efficiency — it means the "wedge" banks charge between what they pay savers and what they charge borrowers is shrinking, benefiting both sides of the balance sheet. If sustained, this trend should support both credit access for businesses (23.2% private sector credit growth was recorded in May 2026) and better returns for term depositors.
4. Negotiated Rates: Prime Client Pricing
Negotiated rates — the pricing banks offer their strongest, highest-volume clients — moved in opposite directions from posted rates in May 2026. The negotiated lending rate fell sharply to 11.90 percent from 12.56 percent in April, its lowest level in the 15-month series, while the negotiated deposit rate eased to 11.25 percent from 11.37 percent. The gap between the overall (posted) lending rate and the negotiated lending rate has widened to 3.42 percentage points, the widest gap recorded since March 2025 — evidence of intensifying competition among banks for prime corporate borrowers even as list pricing for the broader market stays essentially flat.
Chart 4: Negotiated Lending Rate vs. Negotiated Deposit Rate (%) — March 2025 to May 2026
Source: Bank of Tanzania (Table A4: Interest Rates Structure).
Source: Bank of Tanzania (Table A4: Interest Rates Structure, BOT MER June 2026).
TICGL take: Note the crossover: since around late 2025, the negotiated deposit rate (11.25% in May) has moved above the negotiated lending rate (11.90% is only marginally above it) — large depositors with negotiating power are earning nearly as much as prime borrowers are paying. This compression matters for corporate treasury strategy: businesses with strong banking relationships should actively negotiate rather than accept posted/list pricing on both sides of the balance sheet.
5. Foreign Currency Lending & Deposit Rates
Foreign currency (largely USD-denominated) lending and deposit rates remain structurally lower than their TZS counterparts, reflecting the absence of currency depreciation risk premium for lenders and the global USD rate environment. The overall foreign currency lending rate stood at 8.72 percent in May 2026, while the foreign currency overall time deposit rate was 4.47 percent — both up modestly from April.
Chart 5: TZS vs. Foreign Currency Overall Lending Rate (%) — March 2025 to May 2026
Source: Bank of Tanzania (Table A4: Interest Rates Structure, Section B: Foreign Currency).
Source: Bank of Tanzania (Table A4: Interest Rates Structure, Section B).
TICGL take: The TZS–USD lending rate differential remains wide (15.32% vs. 8.72%, a gap of roughly 6.6 percentage points), which continues to make foreign-currency borrowing attractive for importers and dollar-revenue businesses — provided they can manage the associated exchange rate risk, especially with the shilling's recent mild depreciation trend on a month-on-month basis.
6. May 2026 Rate Ladder Snapshot
The chart below consolidates the full lending and deposit rate ladder as it stood at the end of May 2026, giving a single-glance view of where funding and credit costs sit across the maturity spectrum.
Chart 6: Tanzania Lending & Deposit Rate Ladder — Snapshot, May 2026
Source: Bank of Tanzania (Table A4, BOT MER June 2026).
Policy backdrop: This rate structure sits against a Central Bank Rate held at 5.75% and a 7-day interbank cash market rate averaging 5.92% in May 2026 — meaning banks' overall lending rate carries a spread of roughly 9.6 percentage points over the policy rate, while the overall deposit rate sits only about 2.7 points above it. For a fuller picture of the monetary policy and money-market backdrop shaping these numbers, see TICGL's companion analysis on Tanzania's Government securities and interbank cash markets.
Related TICGL Research & Tools
Deepen your understanding of Tanzania's financial markets and economic trajectory with these related TICGL resources:
Tanzania Lending RatesDeposit RatesInterest Rate SpreadNegotiated RatesBanking SectorMonetary Policy
Muhtasari kwa Kiswahili
Ripoti ya Kila Mwezi ya Kiuchumi ya Benki Kuu ya Tanzania (BOT) ya Juni 2026 inaonesha kuwa riba za mikopo na amana za benki nchini Tanzania ziliendelea kuwa tulivu mwezi Mei 2026, huku kukiwa na upungufu mdogo katika pande zote mbili.
Riba ya mikopo kwa ujumla: Ilibaki karibu bila mabadiliko kwa asilimia 15.32, kutoka asilimia 15.33 mwezi Aprili.
Riba ya mikopo iliyojadiliwa (negotiated) kwa wateja wakubwa: Ilishuka kwa kiasi kikubwa hadi asilimia 11.90 kutoka asilimia 12.56, ikionesha ushindani mkubwa baina ya benki kuvutia wateja wazuri.
Riba ya amana kwa ujumla: Ilishuka hadi asilimia 8.43 kutoka asilimia 8.54, ingawa riba ya amana za miezi 12 iliongezeka hadi asilimia 10.17 — kiwango cha juu zaidi katika miezi 15 iliyopita.
Pengo la riba (interest rate spread): Pengo baina ya riba ya mikopo ya muda mfupi na riba ya amana za miezi 12 lilipungua hadi pointi 5.22, kutoka pointi 5.50 mwezi Aprili — hii ni ishara nzuri ya kuboreka kwa ufanisi wa upatanishi wa kifedha (intermediation) katika sekta ya benki.
Riba za fedha za kigeni: Riba ya mikopo kwa dola ilikuwa asilimia 8.72, ikiendelea kuwa chini sana ukilinganisha na riba ya mikopo kwa Shilingi (asilimia 15.32).
Kwa uchambuzi wa kina zaidi kuhusu soko la fedha la Tanzania (Government Securities Market na Interbank Cash Market), soma makala shirikishi ya TICGL: Tanzania Financial Markets Review — June 2026. Na kwa mapengo ya kisera yanayozuia uchumi wa Tanzania kufikia thamani ya Dola trilioni 1 ifikapo 2050, soma: What's Next for Tanzania's Economy?
Primary source: Bank of Tanzania, Monthly Economic Review, June 2026 (covering data through May 2026), Table A4: Interest Rates Structure and Table 2.3.1: Lending and Deposit Interest Rates. Compiled, analysed and contextualised by the TICGL Research Desk (Tanzania Investment and Consultant Group Ltd / Tanzania Economic Research Institute). The interest rate spread series in Chart 3 is computed by TICGL (Overall Lending Rate minus Overall Time Deposit Rate) using official BOT source data; Table 3's "short-term interest spread" reproduces BOT's own published definition and figures. This page is for general information purposes and does not constitute investment or financial advice.
Tanzania Inflation Report June 2026: NCPI Rises to 125.04 as Headline Inflation Eases to 4.0% | TICGL
TICGL Economic Research • National Bureau of Statistics Data • Published 8 July 2026
Tanzania's Inflation Eases to 4.0% in June 2026 as Transport Costs Keep Climbing
The National Bureau of Statistics' June 2026 NCPI release shows headline inflation cooling from 4.2% to 4.0% and food inflation easing sharply — even as transport costs surge 13.6% year-on-year and core inflation creeps higher. TICGL breaks down every number that matters.
Source: National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), Tanzania — Press Release Ref: AC 334/376/01/380, dated 8th July 2026. Analysis and visualization by TICGL Economic Research.
Executive Summary
Headline inflation eased to 4.0% in June 2026, down from 4.2% in May 2026, as the National Consumer Price Index (NCPI) rose from 124.90 to 125.04 (2020 = 100).
Food and non-alcoholic beverages inflation fell sharply to 4.1% from 5.6% in May — the single largest driver of the headline slowdown, even though several staples (sorghum, lentils, cassava) still recorded monthly increases.
Core inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, rose to 3.7% from 3.4%, suggesting underlying price pressure is building even as headline inflation cools.
Transport remains the fastest-inflating major group at 13.6% year-on-year, pushed by a 7.6% monthly jump in motorcycle (bodaboda) fares, plus rising diesel, bus and taxi fares.
Energy, Fuel and Utilities inflation accelerated to 6.3% from levels seen in May, with gas (+4.3%) and kerosene (+4.5%) both climbing on a monthly basis.
Tanzania's inflation for June 2026 remains within the Bank of Tanzania's medium-term target band, but the widening gap between easing food inflation and rising core and transport inflation is a signal worth watching for FY2026/27 fiscal and monetary planning.
The National Consumer Price Index (NCPI) tracks the changing cost of a fixed basket of 383 goods and services — 132 food and non-alcoholic beverage items and 251 non-food items — priced across all 26 regional headquarters on the Tanzanian mainland. Weights are drawn from the 2017/18 Household Budget Survey, with 2020 as both the base and index reference period. The index is compiled following the UN's Classification of Individual Consumption by Purpose (COICOP 2018) across 13 divisions, and elementary aggregates use a geometric mean of price relatives while higher-level aggregates apply the Lowe (Laspeyres-type) index formula.
383
Goods & services in the basket
132
Food & non-alcoholic beverage items
251
Non-food items
26
Mainland regions covered
2020
Index & base reference period
02Headline Inflation: The 13-Month Trend
The chart below plots the NCPI level against the annual headline inflation rate from June 2025 through June 2026. The index climbed steadily from 120.18 to 125.04 over the year, while the inflation rate fluctuated in a comparatively narrow band of 3.2% to 4.2% before easing to 4.0% in the latest release.
NCPI Level vs. Headline Inflation Rate — June 2025 to June 2026 2020 = 100
Source: NBS NCPI Press Release, Chart 1, June 2026 (Ref: AC 334/376/01/380).
Table A — Monthly NCPI level and annual inflation rate, June 2025–June 2026
Month
NCPI (2020=100)
Annual Inflation Rate (%)
03Food vs. Core vs. Headline: A Diverging Picture
June 2026 tells a split story. Food inflation fell hard — from 5.6% to 4.1% — pulling the headline rate down with it. But core inflation, which excludes unprocessed food, energy and utilities, moved the other way, rising from 3.4% to 3.7%. That divergence matters: it suggests that once volatile food and fuel effects are stripped out, the underlying pace of price increases across the wider economy is quietly accelerating.
Headline vs. Food vs. Core Inflation, May 2026 → June 2026
Source: NBS NCPI Press Release, Sections 2.1–2.3, June 2026.
04Inflation by Consumption Group (COICOP)
Table 1 of the NBS release breaks the NCPI into 13 COICOP divisions. Transport (+13.6% y/y) and Energy, Fuel & Utilities (+6.3% y/y) are by far the fastest-moving categories, while Insurance & Financial Services (+0.2%) and Recreation, Sport & Culture (+0.5%) barely moved over the year.
12-Month Inflation Rate by COICOP Group — June 2026
Weights shown in Table B reflect each group's share of total household expenditure used to compile the NCPI.
Table B — NCPI by main group, weight and index values (2020=100)
#
Main Group
Weight (%)
Jun 2025
May 2026
Jun 2026
1-Month Change
12-Month Change
05Core, Non-Core, Goods, Services & Energy Indices
Beyond the 13 main groups, NBS publishes supplementary indices that help policymakers separate volatile price swings from underlying trends. The Services Index rose 5.4% year-on-year — faster than the Goods Index at 3.3% — indicating that labour- and rent-linked costs are rising faster than tradable goods prices.
Supplementary Indices — 12-Month Change
Weight Share of Core vs. Non-Core
Table C — Supplementary index aggregations, June 2026
Index
Weight (%)
Jun 2025
May 2026
Jun 2026
1-Month Change
12-Month Change
06What Pushed Prices Up Between May and June 2026
Month-on-month, the NCPI rose only marginally — from 124.90 to 125.04 — but the release names specific items behind that movement. On the food side, sorghum grains (+5.1%), dried lentils (+3.8%) and sorghum flour (+4.5%) led the increases. On the non-food side, motorcycle/bodaboda fares (+7.6%), kerosene (+4.5%) and gas (+4.3%) were the standout movers.
Top Monthly Price Movers — Food vs. Non-Food Items (May → June 2026)
All values are month-on-month percentage changes for individual items within the NCPI basket.
Full list of food items contributing to the June 2026 increase
Sorghum grains +5.1%Sorghum flour +4.5%Dried lentils +3.8%Dried peas +3.6%Poultry live +3.7%Dried sardines +3.5%Fresh cassava +2.9%Fresh fish +2.7%Flour of cassava +1.9%Soft drinks +1.7%Wheat flour +1.3%Irish/round potatoes +0.7%Bottled drinking water +0.6%Raw milk of cattle +0.3%Dried cowpeas +0.3%Pasta products +0.2%Meat of poultry +0.1%
Full list of non-food items contributing to the June 2026 increase
Motorcycle/bodaboda fare +7.6%Kerosene +4.5%Gas +4.3%Charcoal +3.0%Bus fare +3.1%Diesel +2.6%Taxi fare +2.6%Clothing materials +1.1%Products/materials for dwelling maintenance +1.0%Footwear (children) +0.3%Footwear (women) +0.2%Actual rentals paid by tenants +0.2%Footwear (men) +0.1%
07Why This Matters for Business and Investment in Tanzania
For businesses operating in or entering Tanzania, three signals in this release are worth flagging. First, easing food inflation is good news for household purchasing power and consumer-facing sectors such as retail and FMCG. Second, rising core inflation — now at its highest point in the 13-month window shown here — suggests that non-food, non-energy cost pressures (rent, services, wages) are building steadily, which matters for pricing and wage-planning decisions. Third, transport inflation at 13.6% is a direct cost pressure on logistics, distribution and last-mile delivery across Tanzania's regions, and is closely tied to fuel and bodaboda fare movements that also touch informal-sector incomes.
08NCPI Release Schedule
NBS publishes the NCPI monthly. The next three scheduled releases are set out below.
Table D — Upcoming NCPI release dates
Reference Month
Release Date
July 2026
10th August 2026
August 2026
08th September 2026
September 2026
08th October 2026
09Muhtasari kwa Kiswahili
Mfumuko wa bei nchini Tanzania umepungua hadi asilimia 4.0 mwezi Juni 2026, kutoka asilimia 4.2 mwezi Mei 2026, kulingana na Ofisi ya Taifa ya Takwimu (NBS). Kiwango cha mfumuko wa bei za vyakula kimeshuka kwa kasi hadi asilimia 4.1 kutoka asilimia 5.6, ikichangia kwa kiasi kikubwa kupungua kwa mfumuko wa bei kwa ujumla. Hata hivyo, mfumuko wa bei msingi (Core Inflation) umepanda hadi asilimia 3.7 kutoka asilimia 3.4, ikionesha kuwa shinikizo la bei kwenye bidhaa na huduma zisizo za vyakula na nishati linaendelea kuongezeka.
Sekta ya usafirishaji (Transport) imeendelea kuongoza kwa kasi ya mfumuko wa bei ya asilimia 13.6 kwa mwaka, ikichagizwa na ongezeko la nauli za bodaboda (+7.6% kwa mwezi), mafuta ya dizeli, na nauli za mabasi na teksi. Bei za nishati, gesi na mafuta ya taa pia ziliongezeka kwa kasi mwezi Juni 2026. Takwimu hizi ni muhimu kwa wafanyabiashara, wawekezaji, na watunga sera wanapopanga bajeti na mikakati ya bei kwa mwaka wa fedha 2026/27.
Source: National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), United Republic of Tanzania — "National Consumer Price Index (NCPI) for June, 2026," Press Release Ref: AC 334/376/01/380, dated 8th July 2026. All figures, tables and item-level price movements are drawn directly from this NBS publication. Analysis, charts and commentary are produced by TICGL Economic Research and do not constitute financial or investment advice.
Explore More Tanzania Economic Research from TICGL
Tanzania Tourism Economic Impact 2025: Arrivals, Earnings & Forecast to 2030/2031 | TICGL
TICGL Economic Research · Tourism & Macroeconomy
Tanzania's Tourism Dividend: Record 2025 Earnings and the Road to a US$1 Trillion Economy
A statistical breakdown of the 2025 International Visitors' Exit Survey — arrivals, spending, source markets, and what a record tourism season means for Tanzania's foreign exchange earnings, growth trajectory, and the outlook to 2030/2031.
Published: 08 July 2026By TICGL / Tanzania Economic Research Institute (TERI)Source: NBS, BOT, MNRT, ZCT, Immigration Services Department — 2025 Exit Survey
2,294,495
International arrivals, 2025 (URT)
▲ 7.1% vs 2024
USD 4.41bn
Tourism earnings, 2025 (URT)
▲ 13% vs 2024
USD 289
Avg. spend / person / night (URT)
▲ 19% vs 2024
USD 1.19bn
Zanzibar tourism earnings, 2025
▲ 19.3% vs 2024
Executive Summary
Tanzania's tourism sector closed 2025 with its strongest performance since the 2001 inception of the International Visitors' Exit Survey. According to the 25th edition of the survey — jointly produced by the Ministry of Natural Resources and Tourism (MNRT), the Bank of Tanzania (BOT), the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), the Immigration Services Department (ISD) and the Zanzibar Commission for Tourism (ZCT) — the country welcomed 2,294,495 international visitors in 2025, a 7.1% increase over 2024, and earned USD 4,410.6 million in tourism receipts, up 13% year-on-year. Zanzibar, tracked separately, recorded 654,880 arrivals and USD 1,190.8 million in earnings — a 19.3% jump.
The headline number that matters most for macroeconomic planners is not arrivals but value per visitor: overall average expenditure per person per night rose 19% in mainland Tanzania (to USD 289) and 9% in Zanzibar (to USD 274), meaning earnings grew almost twice as fast as arrivals. This report unpacks that gap statistically, traces the tourism–growth relationship, and projects the sector's trajectory to 2030/2031 — a horizon directly relevant to Tanzania's Dira 2050 ambition of a US$1 trillion economy.
📈
Companion Research: What's Next for Tanzania's Economy?
This tourism analysis feeds directly into TICGL's broader macroeconomic investigation of the policy gaps standing between Tanzania and its Dira 2050 target of a US$1 trillion economy. If tourism is one of the country's clearest growth engines, understanding where policy is — and isn't — keeping pace is essential context.
Global tourism fully recovered its pre-pandemic trajectory in 2025. International arrivals worldwide reached 1.52 billion, roughly 60 million more than 2024 (a 4% annual increase), while international tourism receipts rose 5% to approximately USD 1.9 trillion. Total tourism export revenues — receipts plus passenger transport — hit a record USD 2.2 trillion. Africa was among the fastest-growing regions, attracting over 80 million visitors and posting a 117% recovery rate relative to 2019, ahead of the global average of 104%.
Chart 1 — Global International Tourist Arrivals, 2016–2025 (millions)
Source: UNWTO World Tourism Barometer, January 2026. p = provisional.
Why this matters for Tanzania: Tanzania's 7.1% arrival growth outpaced the global average of 4%, and its 13% earnings growth outpaced the global receipts growth of 5% — evidence that Tanzania is gaining share of global tourism demand, not merely riding the post-pandemic tide.
Tanzania's tourist arrivals have followed a clear V-shaped recovery since the 2020 pandemic collapse (621,000 arrivals, a 59% drop from 2019). By 2025, arrivals reached 2,294,495 — more than 1.5 times the pre-pandemic 2019 level of 1,527,000, and over 3.6 times the 2020 trough.
Chart 3 — International Tourist Arrivals in Tanzania, 2015–2025 (thousands)
Source: Immigration Services Department (ISD), reproduced in the 2025 International Visitors' Exit Survey Report.
Table 1 — Tanzania Tourism Headline Indicators, 2024 vs 2025
Indicator
2024
2025
Change
International arrivals (URT)
2,141,895
2,294,495
+7.1%
Tourism earnings, URT (USD million)
3,903.1
4,410.6
+13.0%
Zanzibar arrivals
601,006
654,880
+9.0%
Zanzibar tourism earnings (USD million)
997.8
1,190.8
+19.3%
Avg. expenditure per person/night, URT (USD)
243
289
+19.1%
Avg. expenditure per person/night, Zanzibar (USD)
251
274
+9.0%
Average length of stay, URT (nights)
10
9
−1 night
Average length of stay, Zanzibar (nights)
7
6
−1 night
Package tour share, URT
56.3%
58.8%
+2.5 pts
Package tour share, Zanzibar
61.8%
67.2%
+5.4 pts
3. The Tourism–Economy Nexus: Tanzania's "Safari Dividend"
TICGL uses the term "Safari Dividend" to describe the gap between arrivals growth and earnings growth in Tanzania's tourism data — the extra value captured per visitor beyond simple volume growth. In 2025, arrivals grew 7.1% but earnings grew 13.0%, meaning roughly 5.5 percentage points of earnings growth came purely from visitors spending more, not from more visitors arriving. This is the statistical signature of a maturing, higher-value tourism economy rather than a purely volume-driven one.
Chart 4 — Decomposing 2025 Earnings Growth (URT)
Chart could not load. Arrivals growth contribution: 7.1%. Per-visitor spend growth contribution: ~5.5%. Combined earnings growth: 13.0%.
TICGL calculation from NBS/BOT/MNRT 2025 Exit Survey data.
Chart 5 — Avg. Expenditure per Person/Night, URT, 2019–2025 (USD)
Source: 2025 International Visitors' Exit Survey Report, Chart 2.30.
Tourism functions as one of Tanzania's principal sources of foreign exchange, alongside agricultural exports and mining. Every dollar of tourism earnings that enters the economy strengthens the current account, supports the shilling, and — through the hospitality, transport, and retail value chains — cascades into employment and small business income far beyond the parks and beaches where the spending physically occurs. The sector's 2025 performance, following an official government assessment of the sector as having "fully recovered and surpassed the COVID-19 pandemic era," reflects arrivals more than 1.5 times above 2019 pre-pandemic levels.
Macro read: With broader economic growth running at approximately 6% per year and tourism earnings growing more than twice that rate, tourism is currently expanding as a share of Tanzania's overall economic activity — reinforcing its position as one of the country's fastest-growing tradable sectors.
4. Source Markets: Who Is Visiting Tanzania
The top 15 source markets accounted for over 75% of total visitors to mainland Tanzania and about 77% of visitors to Zanzibar in 2025. The United States and Italy continue to anchor mainland demand, while Italy dominates Zanzibar. Notably, the Netherlands and India entered the mainland top-15 list in 2025, displacing Australia and Burundi — a sign of market diversification driven by promotional efforts.
Chart 6 — Top 15 Source Markets, Tanzania Mainland (URT), 2025 (%)
Chart could not load. See Table 2 below for full data.
Source: 2025 International Visitors' Exit Survey, Chart 2.1.
Chart 7 — Top 15 Source Markets, Zanzibar, 2025 (%)
Chart could not load. See Table 3 below for full data.
Source: 2025 International Visitors' Exit Survey, Chart 2.3.
Table 2 — Top 15 Source Markets, Tanzania Mainland, 2024 vs 2025 (%)
Country
2024 (%)
2025 (%)
United States
15.1
12.4
Italy
11.6
11.8
France
7.2
7.0
Kenya
8.8
6.4
United Kingdom
6.3
6.0
Germany
4.8
4.8
Zambia
3.2
4.7
Netherlands
—
3.8
Spain
5.3
3.6
DR Congo
3.0
3.2
China
3.0
3.1
South Africa
3.1
2.4
India
—
2.2
Canada
2.1
2.0
Zimbabwe
2.3
2.0
Table 3 — Top 15 Source Markets, Zanzibar, 2024 vs 2025 (%)
Country
2024 (%)
2025 (%)
Italy
19.9
18.8
France
12.3
10.6
United Kingdom
9.0
7.7
United States
7.2
6.6
Germany
7.0
6.4
Netherlands
2.3
5.6
Spain
7.5
5.1
South Africa
5.9
3.3
Poland
—
2.3
Australia
2.3
2.3
Kenya
3.6
2.0
Belgium
1.2
1.8
Greece
—
1.7
Canada
1.4
1.7
Austria
1.5
1.7
5. Purpose of Visit, Travel Arrangement & Length of Stay
Leisure and holidays dominate: 64.6% of mainland visitors and 92.9% of Zanzibar visitors travel for this purpose. Business travel remains economically significant on the mainland (12.5%) — reflecting Tanzania's role as a logistics hub for landlocked neighbours such as Zambia and the DRC — but is negligible in Zanzibar (0.4%).
Chart 8 — Purpose of Visit, URT vs Zanzibar, 2025 (%)
Chart could not load. Leisure/holidays — URT: 64.6%, Zanzibar: 92.9%. VFR — URT: 12.3%, Zanzibar: 3.9%. Business — URT: 12.5%, Zanzibar: 0.4%. Meetings — URT: 2.7%, Zanzibar: 0.8%. Other — URT: 7.9%, Zanzibar: 2.0%.
Source: 2025 Exit Survey, Chart 2.9.
Chart 9 — Package Tour Share Trend, URT vs Zanzibar, 2019–2025 (%)
The rising share of package tours (58.8% mainland, 67.2% Zanzibar) is economically important: package tourists spend far more per night than independent travellers. In 2025, mainland package travellers spent USD 479 per person per night versus USD 203 for independent travellers — a 2.4x premium.
Table 4 — Average Length of Stay, URT vs Zanzibar, 2020–2025 (nights)
Chinese visitors recorded the highest average expenditure per person per night in the mainland top-15 markets at USD 551 (up from USD 491 in 2024), followed by long-haul European and North American travellers. Visitors from neighbouring landlocked countries (DR Congo, Kenya, Zambia, Zimbabwe) spent considerably less per night, consistent with shorter, business-oriented, cross-border trips rather than long-haul leisure travel.
Chart 10 — Independent vs Package Expenditure per Person/Night, URT, 2019–2025 (USD)
Table 5 — Tourism Earnings by Purpose of Visit, URT, 2025 (USD million)
Purpose of visit
Package
Non-package
Total
Leisure and holidays
3,023.3
899.1
3,922.4
Visiting friends & relatives
4.0
91.4
95.4
Other
26.0
48.0
74.1
Business
3.1
45.9
49.0
Total tourism earnings
3,056.5
1,084.4
4,140.9
Note: This breakdown table (Table 2.16 of the source survey) totals USD 4,140.9 million; the headline national figure cited in the survey's Executive Summary is USD 4,410.6 million. TICGL reproduces both as published by NBS/BOT/MNRT without adjustment.
Payment channels: Cash remained the dominant payment method in 2025 (87.0% URT, 82.4% Zanzibar), with credit/debit cards accounting for 12.8% and 17.1% respectively — a formal-sector share that has room to grow as digital and mobile-money payment infrastructure expands in the tourism corridor.
7. Zanzibar: A Distinct Economic Engine
Zanzibar's tourism economy is structurally different from the mainland's: 92.9% of visitors come for leisure, average expenditure growth (9%) has been more moderate than the mainland's (19%), and the package-tour share (67.2%) is now the highest on record. Beach tourism accounts for 88.9% of all recorded activity, with wildlife (10.6%) — largely dolphin and marine excursions — a distant second.
Table 6 — Zanzibar Tourism Earnings by Purpose of Visit, 2025 (USD million)
Purpose of visit
Package
Non-package
Total
Leisure and holidays
702.6
486.4
1,188.9
Visiting friends & relatives
0.4
1.1
1.5
Business
0.2
0.0
0.3
Other
0.0
0.1
0.1
Total earnings
703.2
487.6
1,190.8
Zanzibar's near-total dependence on leisure tourism (over 92% of arrivals) makes it more exposed to global discretionary-spending cycles than the mainland's more diversified visitor base — a risk concentration policymakers should weigh alongside the island's clear revenue strengths.
8. TICGL Forecast: Arrivals & Earnings to 2030/2031
Methodology note: The figures below are TICGL Economic Research indicative projections, not official government forecasts. They apply three compound annual growth rate (CAGR) scenarios to the 2025 base year (2,294,495 arrivals; USD 4,410.6 million in earnings): a Low case (4% arrivals / 6% earnings CAGR, reflecting a slowdown toward the global UN Tourism outlook of 3–4%), a Base case (6% arrivals / 9% earnings CAGR, aligned with Tanzania's broader ~6% GDP growth trajectory and continued per-visitor spend gains), and a High case (8% arrivals / 12% earnings CAGR, reflecting sustained momentum from Tanzania's 2025 World Travel Awards wins and expanding air connectivity).
Chart 11 — Forecast: Tanzania International Arrivals, 2019–2031 (millions, scenario analysis)
Chart could not load. See Table 7 below for full forecast figures.
Historical: ISD/NBS. Projections 2026–2031: TICGL Economic Research (indicative, non-official).
Reading the forecast: Under the Base case, Tanzania's tourism sector alone could contribute a cumulative USD 30–35 billion in earnings between 2026 and 2031, with the annual run-rate approaching USD 7.4 billion by 2031 — roughly 68% above the 2025 level. Even the Low case implies earnings growth outpacing global tourism receipts projections (3–4% p.a.), underscoring how much of Tanzania's tourism growth story is domestically driven rather than dependent on global tailwinds.
9. Constraints & Areas Needing Investment
Visitors were candid about what needs improvement. Roads and infrastructure top the list by a wide margin in both mainland Tanzania (35.3% of comments) and Zanzibar (29.6%), followed by airport and hotel facilities, and traffic congestion.
Table 9 — Top Areas for Improvement Cited by Visitors, 2025 (%)
Area
URT (%)
Zanzibar (%)
Roads and infrastructure
35.3
29.6
Airport and hotel facilities
8.5
7.7
Traffic jams
7.0
5.3
Visa and airport procedures
4.9
6.1
Security and safety
3.2
5.6
Social services
3.6
3.8
Customer service quality
3.5
4.5
Conservation measures
3.1
4.8
The government has responded with targeted investment: ongoing road construction inside Ngorongoro Conservation Area, Ruaha and Mikumi national parks; the near-complete Msalato International Airport in Dodoma; expansion of AAKIA in Zanzibar; and new airstrips at Tanga, Lake Manyara, Nyerere National Park and Serengeti Mugumu. These directly target the infrastructure bottleneck visitors flag most consistently — and represent the clearest lever for converting the High-case forecast scenario (Section 8) into reality.
10. Outlook & Policy Implications
Three factors underpin a positive medium-term outlook for Tanzania's tourism-driven growth: (1) brand momentum — Tanzania's 18-award sweep at the 2025 World Travel Awards, Serengeti's ranking as Africa's best wildlife park, and a top-10 global ranking for natural beauty are raising the country's profile in exactly the long-haul, high-spend markets (US, Italy, China) that already post the highest per-night expenditure; (2) connectivity investment — new routes (e.g., RwandAir's Kigali–Zanzibar service) and airport upgrades are reducing a structural constraint on arrivals growth; and (3) product diversification — the leading attractions' combined visitor share fell from 62.6% (2024) to 58.9% (2025), showing visitors are spreading demand across a wider range of sites, which reduces overcrowding risk at flagship parks and builds resilience into the visitor economy.
For policymakers, the clearest actionable insight from the 2025 data is that value capture, not just volume, is the more powerful growth lever: a 1 percentage-point increase in average nightly expenditure has historically moved earnings more than a 1 percentage-point increase in arrivals. Continued investment in service quality, product diversification beyond traditional wildlife/beach circuits, and infrastructure that reduces friction (roads, airports, visa processes) should therefore be prioritised alongside — not instead of — market-diversification and route-development efforts.
11. Frequently Asked Questions
How much did tourism earn Tanzania in 2025?
Tanzania's tourism sector earned USD 4,410.6 million in 2025, up 13% from USD 3,903.1 million in 2024. Zanzibar separately recorded USD 1,190.8 million, up 19.3% from USD 997.8 million in 2024.
How many tourists visited Tanzania in 2025?
Tanzania recorded 2,294,495 international arrivals in 2025 (+7.1% year-on-year). Zanzibar recorded 654,880 arrivals (+9%).
Which countries send the most tourists to Tanzania?
The United States (12.4%), Italy (11.8%), France (7.0%), Kenya (6.4%) and the United Kingdom (6.0%) lead mainland arrivals. Italy (18.8%), France (10.6%), the UK (7.7%) and the US (6.6%) lead Zanzibar arrivals.
What is Tanzania's tourism forecast for 2030 and 2031?
Under TICGL's Base-case scenario (6% CAGR), arrivals could reach approximately 3.07 million in 2030 and 3.25 million in 2031, with earnings potentially reaching USD 6.8 billion and USD 7.4 billion respectively. These are indicative research estimates, not official projections.
How much do tourists spend per night in Tanzania?
In 2025, average expenditure was USD 289 per person per night in mainland Tanzania and USD 274 per person per night in Zanzibar.
Related TICGL Research & Tools
Continue exploring Tanzania's economic story with these related resources from TICGL and the Tanzania Economic Research Institute (TERI).
Contribute to research like this — apply to TICGL's Researcher Programme.
Muhtasari kwa Kiswahili
Hapa chini ni muhtasari wa uchambuzi huu wa kiuchumi kuhusu sekta ya utalii Tanzania kwa mwaka 2025, kama ulivyoainishwa katika Ripoti ya Utafiti wa Watalii Wanaotoka nchini (International Visitors' Exit Survey) 2025.
Idadi ya watalii: Tanzania ilipokea watalii 2,294,495 mwaka 2025, ongezeko la asilimia 7.1 ikilinganishwa na mwaka 2024. Zanzibar peke yake ilipokea watalii 654,880, ongezeko la asilimia 9.
Mapato ya utalii: Sekta ya utalii iliingiza jumla ya Dola za Kimarekani milioni 4,410.6 (Tanzania Bara), ongezeko la asilimia 13 kutoka mwaka 2024. Zanzibar iliingiza Dola milioni 1,190.8, ongezeko la asilimia 19.3.
Matumizi ya watalii: Kwa wastani, kila mtalii alitumia Dola 289 kwa siku Tanzania Bara (ongezeko la asilimia 19) na Dola 274 kwa siku Zanzibar (ongezeko la asilimia 9) — ushahidi kwamba ukuaji wa mapato unatokana zaidi na kuongezeka kwa thamani ya matumizi ya kila mtalii, si idadi tu.
Nchi zinazoongoza kwa watalii: Marekani, Italia, Ufaransa, Kenya na Uingereza zinaongoza Tanzania Bara; wakati Italia, Ufaransa na Uingereza zinaongoza Zanzibar.
Utabiri hadi 2030/2031: Kwa kutumia mfumo wa TICGL wa "Base case" (ukuaji wa asilimia 6 kwa mwaka), watalii wanaweza kufikia takriban milioni 3.07 mwaka 2030 na milioni 3.25 mwaka 2031, huku mapato yakiweza kufikia Dola bilioni 6.8 na bilioni 7.4 mtawalia. Haya ni makadirio ya kitafiti ya TICGL, si takwimu rasmi za serikali.
Changamoto kuu: Miundombinu ya barabara, viwanja vya ndege, na msongamano wa magari ndizo changamoto kubwa zilizotajwa na watalii — na ndizo maeneo yanayohitaji uwekezaji zaidi ili kuongeza mapato ya sekta hii muhimu kwa uchumi wa Tanzania.
Data Source
The 2025 International Visitors' Exit Survey Report — Ministry of Natural Resources and Tourism (MNRT), Bank of Tanzania (BOT), National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), Immigration Services Department (ISD), Zanzibar Commission for Tourism (ZCT). Global figures: UNWTO World Tourism Barometer, January 2026. TICGL forecast figures (Section 8) are TICGL Economic Research estimates and are not official government projections.
Why Did Dangote Choose Kenya Over Tanzania for Its $20 Billion Refinery? | TICGL
TICGL / TERI · Investment Research Note · July 2026
Why Did Dangote Choose Kenya Over Tanzania for Its $20 Billion Refinery — And What Does It Mean for Investors?
Dangote Industries has confirmed its 700,000 bpd, USD 15-20 billion East African refinery will rise at Lamu, Kenya — not Tanga, Tanzania. TICGL unpacks the diplomatic misstep, the deeper structural gaps behind it, and the parallel power, fertiliser and port pipeline Tanzania just secured instead.
Prepared by: TICGL Research DivisionAuthor: Amran Bhuzohera, Managing Director & Chief EconomistPublished: July 2026
The headline number, the headline decision, and why TICGL says this was never really about diplomacy alone.
700,000
barrels/day refinery capacity
$15-20bn
estimated investment size
Lamu, Kenya
final chosen site
~15%
Tanzania's 2025 FDI realisation rate
Dangote Industries Limited has confirmed that its planned 700,000-barrel-per-day East African refinery — the group's largest refining investment outside Nigeria — will be sited at Lamu, Kenya, rather than Tanga, Tanzania. Company officials told Reuters that the site has been selected, soil tests are under way, and design and engineering work has commenced, with financing to be drawn from internal cash flow, bonds and a planned initial public offering.
The decision followed a diplomatic misstep rather than a straightforward least-cost analysis: Kenya's President William Ruto announced at a Nairobi summit that the refinery would be built at Tanga before Tanzania's government had approved the plan, prompting President Samia Suluhu Hassan to publicly disown it. Dangote then pivoted toward Mombasa and, subsequently, Lamu — citing superior port depth, larger fuel consumption, and a bigger economy as the deciding commercial factors.
TICGL's core reading: the diplomatic friction was the proximate trigger, but the underlying decision was shaped by structural investment-climate variables TICGL has tracked for years — a narrow tax base, a manufacturing sector stuck near 8% of GDP, a private sector crowded out by government borrowing, an FDI pipeline that converts pledges into disbursed capital at only 15-20%, and permitting/land-acquisition delays averaging 18-24 months.
This is not the end of the Tanzania–Dangote relationship. On 29 June 2026, President Samia met Aliko Dangote at State House in Dar es Salaam and secured commitment to a parallel investment pipeline — a 2,000 MW coal-fired power plant, a urea fertiliser complex, port development, a 40-km port-access road, and an 812-km Mtwara–Mbamba Bay transport corridor — alongside an open invitation for Tanzania to take an equity stake in the Lamu refinery itself. TICGL reads this as evidence that Tanzania remains commercially attractive, but converting interest into disbursed capital still depends on closing the systemic gaps set out below.
The Dangote refinery pivot to Lamu is a live example of the same policy gaps this TICGL report tracks. If Tanzania's tax base, land-permitting, private-capital and FDI-conversion constraints are not addressed, TICGL's Dira 2050 modelling indicates the country risks falling behind its own timetable for building a USD 1 trillion economy by 2050 — meaning fewer mega-projects like this one choose Tanzania, and the roughly 24 years remaining to that target close in faster than the reforms needed to reach it.
The $1 Trillion Milestone Is a 2058–2062 Story, Not 2050
At Tanzania's current real GDP growth rate of 5.9%, the $1 trillion milestone arrives around 2065. Closing the gap to 2050 requires a growth rate of 10.2% nominal per year — nearly double the current pace. This is not a failure of vision; it is a gap in execution. Five structural policy gaps — detailed in the full report — are the primary reasons Tanzania is on a 2058–2062 trajectory rather than a 2050 one. Closing even three of these gaps could advance the timeline by a decade.
1.1 Timeline — from the Nairobi announcement to the confirmed Lamu site.
23 APRIL 2026
At a Nairobi summit, Aliko Dangote pledges a 650,000 bpd East African refinery. Kenya's President Ruto publicly names Tanga, Tanzania as the site, citing the EACOP pipeline route — without prior sign-off from Dodoma.
LATE APRIL 2026
President Samia Suluhu Hassan clarifies her government had not approved a Tanga refinery plan, creating diplomatic friction between Dar es Salaam and Nairobi.
MAY 2026
Dangote pivots publicly toward Mombasa, citing greater port depth, higher domestic fuel consumption, and the larger Kenyan economy. Kenya's National Infrastructure Fund pledges co-investment, with roughly KSh 21.5 billion in seed capital earmarked.
MAY–JUNE 2026
Feasibility studies formally cover three candidate ports — Tanga, Mombasa and Lamu — with Lamu emerging as preferred, in part to serve South Sudan and Ethiopia via the LAPSSET corridor.
29 JUNE 2026
Dangote meets President Samia at State House, Dar es Salaam, confirming the refinery's move to Lamu while unveiling a parallel, non-refinery investment pipeline for Tanzania.
1–7 JULY 2026
Dangote Industries confirms the refinery's capacity at 700,000 bpd and discloses financing via internal cash flow, bonds and a planned IPO, with construction timelines of up to three years.
1.2 Why Kenya Won on Dangote's Own Stated Terms
Four factors recur consistently across reporting on the decision.
Factor Dangote cited
Kenya / Lamu advantage
Tanzania / Tanga position
Port depth & scale
Mombasa handles 45m+ tonnes/year, Africa's largest & deepest regional port
Comparatively shallower, smaller facility at Tanga
Kenya's National Infrastructure Fund pledged direct equity & de-risking (~KSh 21.5bn seed)
No equivalent co-investment vehicle activated in time
Corridor access
Lamu sits on LAPSSET, opening South Sudan & Ethiopia markets
Tanga cannot easily reach these markets
Pipeline proximity (EACOP)
Dangote stated crude can arrive by ship, reducing pipeline-terminus dependence
Assumed EACOP-hosting advantage did not materialise as decisive
Mombasa vs Tanga: Port Throughput Gap
Illustrative comparison of annual port cargo throughput cited as a deciding commercial factor (million tonnes/year).
1.3 The Emerging Tanzania Consolation Package
Rather than walking away, Dangote used the 29 June meeting to lay out a considerably broader pipeline of Tanzania-based investments than the group's existing USD 500 million, 3-million-tonne cement plant in Mtwara.
Component
Scale / detail
Coal-fired power plant
2,000 MW — a potentially transformative addition against Tanzania's current ~4,522 MW installed capacity
Urea fertiliser complex
Extends Dangote's African fertiliser strategy into a market still heavily import-dependent for fertiliser
Port development + access road
40-km concrete access road to relieve congestion around Tanzania's principal ports
Transport corridor
812-km Mtwara–Mbamba Bay corridor to move raw materials and finished goods more efficiently
Special economic zone
Proposed trade/economic zone tied to the pipeline
Lamu refinery equity stake
Open invitation for the Tanzanian government to acquire equity in the Lamu refinery itself
Not yet at financial close. President Samia has directed the Minister of Planning and Investment, Prof. Kitila Mkumbo, to coordinate technical negotiations. On TICGL's registration-to-disbursement framework, the conversion of this pipeline into disbursed capital — not the announcement itself — will be the true test of Tanzania's investment climate.
2. Systemic Investment-Climate Challenges — the TICGL Lens
TICGL's ongoing Dira 2050 policy-gap research and FDI registration-to-disbursement analysis identify recurring structural constraints that shape how large investors like Dangote evaluate Tanzania against regional peers.
2.1 A Narrow, Shallow Tax Base
Tanzania's tax-to-GDP ratio stands at approximately 13.1%, below the Sub-Saharan Africa average of roughly 16% and well short of the 18-20% associated with sustainable middle-income economies. Corporate income tax of approximately 30% sits above Kenya's 25% and Rwanda's 28%, while compliance remains time-intensive relative to regional peers. VAT refund arrears — estimated at TZS 1.4-1.5 trillion — further strain working capital for capital-intensive investors.
Tax-to-GDP Ratio: Tanzania vs Regional Benchmarks
Tanzania trails the Sub-Saharan Africa average and the 18-20% band typical of sustainable middle-income economies.
TICGL recommendation: broaden the base by formalising the informal economy rather than raising rates on existing formal taxpayers, alongside automation of tax administration.
2.2 An Industrialisation and Infrastructure Deficit
Manufacturing contributes only about 8.1% of GDP, against a 22-28% range typically associated with a USD 1 trillion-scale economy under Tanzania's Dira 2050 ambition. Installed power capacity of roughly 4,522 MW remains far below the 15,000 MW envisioned for 2050. In the specific case of the refinery, Tanga's comparatively shallow port and smaller throughput capacity versus Mombasa's scale was cited directly by Dangote as a deciding factor.
Manufacturing Share of GDP
Current vs the range required for Dira 2050's $1 trillion ambition
Installed Power Capacity (MW)
Current capacity vs the 2050 target
2.3 Private-Sector Crowding-Out
Government domestic borrowing continues to compete directly with private credit: treasury bills and bonds offer risk-free yields of 8-12%, discouraging commercial banks from lending to manufacturing and infrastructure SMEs. Private investment remains near 22% of GDP, short of the 30-35% TICGL estimates is required to sustain 8%+ growth. As of TICGL's most recent PPP tracking, no PPP project has yet reached financial close, even though a PPP policy framework exists on paper.
Private Investment as % of GDP: Actual vs Required
Tanzania's private investment share sits well below the 30-35% band needed to sustain 8%+ growth.
2.4 The FDI Registration-to-Disbursement Gap
Tanzania's highest-leverage, most actionable investment-climate constraint.
Tanzania's approved FDI pipeline has grown five-fold over a decade, from USD 2.1 billion (2015) to USD 10.95 billion (2025), yet the realisation rate — actual disbursed inflows divided by registered pledges — has fallen from roughly 73% in 2015 to an estimated 15% in 2025, the lowest point in an eleven-year series. The resulting annual disbursement gap has widened to approximately USD 9.3 billion.
Registered FDI Pipeline vs Actual Inflows (USD Billion)
The widening gap between what Tanzania approves and what actually gets disbursed, 2015-2025.
FDI Realisation Rate Trend
Share of registered/approved FDI pledges that convert into actual disbursed capital.
Indicator
Tanzania (2025)
Regional benchmark
Registered FDI pipeline
USD 10.95bn
Five-fold growth since 2015
Actual FDI inflows
~USD 1.66-1.72bn
Grew only ~8% in real terms since 2015
Realisation rate
~15%
Mature peer economies: 45-65%
Avg. investment approval time
~240 days
Rwanda: ~28 days; Kenya: ~90 days
World Bank B-READY score (2024)
52.1
Rwanda: 72.6; Kenya: 58.8; Ethiopia: 54.3
Six Structural Drivers of the Gap
Ranked by estimated share of the shortfall: land acquisition and title-deed issuance (≈28%, typically 18-24 months to complete); multi-agency regulatory approvals across an average of seven agencies (≈22%); foreign-exchange availability and repatriation uncertainty (≈18%); infrastructure gaps in power, roads and port connectivity (≈16%); scarcity of long-term local-currency project finance (≈10%); and residual investment-protection uncertainty (≈6%).
What Drives Tanzania's FDI Disbursement Gap?
Estimated share of the shortfall attributable to each structural driver.
TICGL note: a one percentage-point improvement in Tanzania's realisation rate on the current ~USD 11 billion registered base is estimated to be worth approximately USD 100-110 million in additional annual FDI inflows — meaning the conversion problem, not the attraction problem, is Tanzania's most actionable investment-climate lever.
2.5 Regional Benchmarking: Tanzania vs Kenya vs Rwanda vs Ethiopia
Kenya's absolute FDI stock is smaller than Tanzania's, but its realisation rate, approval speed and regulatory-quality score are all materially stronger.
Country
2024 Actual FDI (USD bn)
Est. realisation rate
Avg. approval time
B-READY score
Tanzania
1.72
~20%
~240 days
52.1
Kenya
0.70
~45%
~90 days
58.8
Ethiopia
3.90
~42%
~180 days
54.3
Rwanda
0.90
~68%
~28 days
72.6
Realisation Rate by Country
Share of registered FDI actually disbursed
Average Investment Approval Time
Days from application to approval
World Bank B-READY Score (2024)
Business Ready index — regulatory quality and ease of doing business benchmark.
Rwanda remains the regional gold standard, and TICGL continues to view it as the most directly transferable reform model for Tanzania given broadly similar economic structure and scale.
3. Reading the Dangote Decision Through the Gap Framework
The refinery decision was overdetermined: even absent the diplomatic misstep, Tanzania's land, permitting and private-capital constraints would have made Tanga a harder sell.
Dangote's stated reason
Underlying TICGL systemic gap
Mombasa's port is deeper and larger than Tanga
Infrastructure/industrialisation deficit — ports, power and logistics investment lagging Dira 2050 targets
Kenya has a bigger economy, higher fuel consumption
Smaller realised private-sector base; Tanzania's own private investment share of GDP (~22%) below the 30-35% needed for scale
Kenya offered public co-investment/de-risking via the National Infrastructure Fund
Tanzania's PPP framework exists on paper, but no project has yet reached financial close
Diplomatic friction over the Tanga announcement
Policy predictability and inter-governmental coordination — a governance-adjacent, not purely economic, factor
Feasibility/soil studies already advancing at Lamu
Tanzania's land-acquisition and title process (18-24 months) is the single largest driver (≈28%) of its FDI disbursement gap
TICGL's assessment is therefore that Tanzania should not treat the loss as a one-off political misunderstanding, but as confirmation of gaps already identified in its own research.
4. Policy Recommendations
What government and investors should each take away from the Dangote case.
For the Government of Tanzania
Fast-track the pre-titled industrial/SEZ land bank concept already under discussion at TISEZA, prioritising sites relevant to the Dangote power, fertiliser and port pipeline, to avoid replicating the 18-24 month land-acquisition delay that cost Tanzania the refinery.
Bring at least one Dangote-linked project (power plant, fertiliser complex, or port works) to genuine financial close within 12-18 months, as proof-of-concept for a functioning one-stop investment facilitation process.
Formalise a single-window, legally binding service-level approval process, replacing the current multi-agency sequence that accounts for an estimated 22% of Tanzania's FDI disbursement gap.
Broaden the tax base through informal-sector digitalisation and formalisation incentives rather than raising rates on existing formal taxpayers.
Pursue the offered equity stake in the Lamu refinery on commercially sound terms, to secure fuel-security benefits and stay embedded in East Africa's refined-products value chain.
For TICGL Clients and Investors
Treat land title and multi-agency permitting timelines as the primary bankability risk for large Tanzanian projects, and budget 18-24 months into feasibility schedules unless a pre-titled SEZ site is secured.
Where projects depend on foreign-exchange repatriation certainty, seek forward cover or structure financing to hedge against currently limited long-dated FX facilities.
Benchmark any Tanzania investment decision against Kenya and Rwanda on realisation rate and approval speed, not headline FDI totals alone.
Monitor the Dangote-Tanzania power, fertiliser, port and transport pipeline as a live test case: reaching financial close within 12-24 months would be a strong positive signal for Tanzania's investment climate trajectory.
5. Conclusion
Dangote's choice of Lamu over Tanga is, on the surface, a story about diplomacy and port depth. Beneath that surface, it is consistent with the systemic investment-climate gaps TICGL has documented across its Dira 2050 and FDI-disbursement research: a narrow tax base, an underweight manufacturing and power sector, a private sector still crowded out by government borrowing, and — most tellingly — a land-acquisition and permitting regime that takes many months longer to clear than regional peers.
Tanzania's fundamentals — natural resources, a large and youthful population, an EAC/SADC-bridging location, and continued reform momentum under President Samia Suluhu Hassan — remain genuinely strong, as evidenced by Dangote's parallel commitment to a multi-billion-dollar power, fertiliser, port and transport-corridor pipeline agreed just weeks after the refinery decision was finalised. Whether that pipeline becomes another entry in Tanzania's registration ledger or an actual disbursed, operating asset will depend on exactly the reforms — land banking, single-window approvals, FX certainty, and PPP financial close — that TICGL has been recommending across its research programme.
Muhtasari kwa Kiswahili
Uamuzi wa Dangote na Somo kwa Tanzania
1
Uamuzi: Kampuni ya Dangote imethibitisha kuwa kiwanda chake kikubwa cha kusafisha mafuta (mapipa 700,000 kwa siku, thamani ya Dola za Marekani bilioni 15-20) kitajengwa Lamu, Kenya, badala ya Tanga, Tanzania.
2
Chanzo cha uamuzi: Tatizo la kidiplomasia lilitokea baada ya Rais wa Kenya kutangaza Tanga kama eneo la mradi kabla ya Serikali ya Tanzania kuridhia rasmi, jambo lililomfanya Rais Samia Suluhu Hassan kulikanusha hadharani.
3
Sababu za kibiashara: Dangote alitaja kina kirefu cha bandari ya Mombasa, uchumi mkubwa wa Kenya, matumizi makubwa ya mafuta, na uwekezaji wa moja kwa moja wa Serikali ya Kenya kupitia Mfuko wake wa Miundombinu.
4
TICGL inaona zaidi: Nyuma ya sababu hizo, kuna mapengo ya kimfumo — msingi mdogo wa kodi (13.1% ya Pato la Taifa), sekta ya viwanda inayosalia karibu 8% tu ya uchumi, sekta binafsi inayozibwa na mikopo ya Serikali, na kiwango cha chini cha ubadilishaji wa ahadi za uwekezaji kuwa fedha halisi (karibu 15% mwaka 2025).
5
Fursa mpya: Tarehe 29 Juni 2026, Rais Samia alikutana na Aliko Dangote Ikulu na kupata ahadi ya mradi mbadala — kituo cha umeme cha megawati 2,000, kiwanda cha mbolea, uendelezaji wa bandari, barabara ya kilomita 40, na ukanda wa usafirishaji wa kilomita 812 kutoka Mtwara hadi Mbamba Bay — pamoja na fursa ya Tanzania kununua hisa katika kiwanda cha Lamu.
6
Mapendekezo ya TICGL: Serikali iharakishe upatikanaji wa ardhi na hati miliki, iunde mfumo wa kibali kimoja (single-window approval), na ihakikishe angalau mradi mmoja wa Dangote unafikia hatua ya fedha (financial close) ndani ya miezi 12-18 ijayo, ili kuonesha uwezekano wa Tanzania kuvutia na kutimiza uwekezaji mkubwa.
Related TICGL Research & Tools
This note sits within TICGL's broader Dira 2050 and FDI research programme. Explore the related analysis below.
Reuters/CNBC Africa, "Dangote to fund proposed Kenya refinery with cash, bonds and an IPO," 7 July 2026.
TICGL, "What's Next for Tanzania's Economy? The Policy Gaps Keeping $1 Trillion Out of Reach by 2050," June 2026.
TICGL, "Tanzania's FDI Registration-to-Disbursement Gap: Bridging the US$170 Billion Financing Chasm," April 2026.
The Citizen, "Getting to the bottom of the race for East Africa's $17 billion refinery," May 2026.
Business Daily Africa, "Kenya to buy stake in Dangote-fronted oil refinery," May 2026.
Tuko.co.ke, "Mombasa's Critical Role in Dangote's Mega Refinery Plan for East Africa," June 2026.
Kenyans.co.ke / Billionaires.Africa, "Dangote unveils power, fertiliser and port plans for Tanzania," 30 June 2026.
Nairobi Wire / Tribune Online, "Dangote's Kenya Refinery to Refine 700,000 Barrels Daily," 1-2 July 2026.
This research note is prepared by TICGL Research Division / Tanzania Economic Research Institute (TERI) for informational purposes and does not constitute investment advice.
Is Tanzania's Money Supply Growing Faster Than Its Economy? | TICGL
Is Tanzania's Money Supply Growing Faster Than Its Economy?
Tanzania's extended broad money supply (M3) has grown nearly four times faster than the real economy for two straight years. TICGL/TERI unpacks what is driving it, why it matters more than most headline economic indicators, and what it signals for inflation, credit and the Shilling through the rest of 2026.
📅 Published: July 2026🏦 Source: Bank of Tanzania, Monthly Economic Review, May 2026⏱ 12–14 min read
TZS 65.1tn
M3 money supply, April 2026
+22.0%
M3 growth, year-on-year
~6.0%
Real GDP growth, 2025
+23.6%
Private sector credit growth y/y
Why this matters
Tanzania's money supply is not just "growing" — it is growing at roughly four times the pace of the real economy. M3 expanded 24.7 percent in 2025 against real GDP growth of about 6.0 percent, and the gap is being driven almost entirely by domestic credit creation, not foreign currency inflows. That combination — fast credit-fuelled money growth outpacing real output — is the classic textbook precursor to inflationary pressure, and it is already visible in the data: headline inflation rose from 3.2 percent to 4.0 percent in a single month (April 2026).
1. What Is M3, and Why Should Anyone Outside a Bank Care?
A 60-second primer before the data
Extended broad money supply (M3) is the broadest official measure of "money" circulating in Tanzania's economy. It is built up in layers:
M1 — Narrow money
Cash in people's hands plus money sitting in current/cheque accounts — the most liquid, immediately spendable money. TZS 31.2 trillion in April 2026.
M2 — Broad money
M1 plus savings and time deposits in Shillings — money that's still yours, just slightly less instantly spendable. TZS 50.1 trillion.
M3 — Extended broad money
M2 plus foreign currency deposits held in Tanzanian banks. The full picture of money in the system. TZS 65.1 trillion.
Economists watch M3 growth because, over time, money supply, prices, output and the speed at which money changes hands are mathematically linked:
M × V = P × Y
Money Supply × Velocity = Price Level × Real Output
In plain terms: if the amount of money in an economy grows much faster than the amount of goods and services actually being produced (real GDP), and the speed at which money changes hands doesn't fall enough to offset it, the extra money has to show up somewhere — usually in higher prices (inflation) or a weaker currency. This is precisely the tension Tanzania's numbers now show.
2. The Numbers: How Fast Is Money Supply Actually Growing?
Source: Bank of Tanzania and banks, BOT Monthly Economic Review, May 2026, Table A3.
M3 has risen in every one of the last 13 months without a single monthly decline — from TZS 53.3 trillion in April 2025 to TZS 65.1 trillion in April 2026, an increase of nearly TZS 12 trillion in a single year. Growth has moderated slightly from its 2025 peak (23.2% in March 2026) to 22.0% in April, but it remains far above Tanzania's long-run average.
Chart 2 — Long-Term M3 Growth vs. Real GDP Growth (2018 – 2025)
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Source: Bank of Tanzania, Ministry of Finance and Planning, BOT Monthly Economic Review, May 2026, Table A1.
This chart is the single most important one in this article. From 2018 to 2024, M3 growth and GDP growth moved in a broadly reasonable relationship to each other — money supply grew faster than output, as is normal in a financially deepening economy, but not dramatically so. In 2025, that relationship broke: M3 growth more than doubled to 24.7 percent while real GDP growth edged up only modestly to around 6.0 percent.
3. What's Actually Driving the Growth
It's not foreign money flooding in — it's domestic credit creation
This is the most important, and most under-reported, detail in the entire money supply story. M3 growth can come from two very different sources, with very different implications:
Net Foreign Assets (NFA) — money entering the system via foreign currency inflows (exports, remittances, FDI, reserves). NFA actually fell 0.7 percent year-on-year to TZS 14.6 trillion in April 2026.
Net Domestic Assets (NDA) — money created domestically through bank lending to the private sector and government. NDA surged 30.7 percent year-on-year to TZS 50.5 trillion — the overwhelming driver of the entire M3 increase.
In other words: Tanzania's money supply boom is homegrown, generated almost entirely by the banking system extending credit faster than the economy is growing — not by dollars flowing in from abroad. That distinction matters because credit-driven money growth carries a more direct inflation and currency risk than reserve-backed money growth.
Chart 3 — Composition of M3 Growth: NFA vs. NDA
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Source: Bank of Tanzania, Table 2.2.1.
Table 1 — M3 and Its Main Components (TZS billions)
Component
Apr 2025
Apr 2026
Growth y/y
Net foreign assets
14,658.6
14,553.0
-0.7%
Net domestic assets
38,679.1
50,538.9
+30.7%
— of which: claims on private sector
38,755.8
47,919.3
+23.6%
Extended broad money (M3)
53,337.7
65,091.9
+22.0%
4. The Widening Money-vs-GDP Gap
Why a persistent gap of this size is the metric to watch
The gap in one line
In 2025, Tanzania's money supply grew roughly four times faster than its real economy (24.7% vs. ~6.0%). A one-off gap of this size can reflect healthy financial deepening — more people opening bank accounts, more businesses accessing formal credit for the first time. A persistent gap of this size, repeated for a second year running, is different: it means the banking system is creating purchasing power faster than the economy can produce goods and services to absorb it.
Tanzania has genuine grounds for the "financial deepening" explanation — private sector credit to GDP has climbed from just 14.3 percent in 2018 to 21.6 percent in 2025, still low by regional and global standards, meaning there is real room for credit to keep expanding as more of the economy is formally banked. But the rate of that expansion in the last 12–18 months has been unusually fast, and TICGL's view is that both explanations — genuine deepening and an overheating credit cycle — are probably true at the same time, in different parts of the economy.
Chart 4 — Private Sector Credit to GDP Ratio, Tanzania (2018–2025)
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Source: Bank of Tanzania, BOT Monthly Economic Review, May 2026, Table A1.
5. The First Warning Sign: Core Inflation Starts to Accelerate
Core inflation jumped from 2.2% to 3.1% in a single month (April 2026)
Textbook monetary theory does not predict inflation to arrive instantly or mechanically — it typically shows up with a lag, and Tanzania's April 2026 inflation figures should not be read as pure proof of a money-supply-driven price spiral (much of the April jump was explicitly attributed by the Bank of Tanzania to fuel price pass-through from the Middle East conflict). But the direction is consistent with what a persistently high M3-vs-GDP gap would predict: both headline inflation (4.0%, up from 3.2%) and, more tellingly, core inflation (3.1%, up from 2.2%) — which strips out volatile food and energy prices — rose sharply in the same month.
Core inflation is the more important of the two for this story, because it is less exposed to one-off external shocks like oil prices and more reflective of underlying domestic demand pressure — exactly the channel through which excess money supply growth would be expected to show up first.
Source: NBS & Bank of Tanzania computations, BOT Monthly Economic Review, May 2026.
TICGL read: One month of rising core inflation alongside high M3 growth is not proof of causation. But it is exactly the pattern that would justify the Monetary Policy Committee watching money supply and credit growth closely over the next two to three quarters, rather than treating April's inflation uptick as a one-off, purely fuel-driven event.
6. Impact on Credit & Financial Deepening: Not All Sectors Are Growing Equally
Trade, mining and transport are absorbing most of the new credit
The domestic credit expansion behind M3 growth is highly uneven across sectors. Private sector credit grew 23.6 percent year-on-year overall, but that average hides very different stories sector by sector:
Chart 6 — Annual Credit Growth by Economic Activity, April 2026
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Source: Banks & Bank of Tanzania, Table 2.2.2.
Trade credit grew fastest at 44.2 percent — much of this is working-capital financing for import-heavy, fast-turnover businesses, which tends to translate quickly into consumer prices if it isn't matched by proportional output growth. Manufacturing credit, by contrast, grew just 4.2 percent — meaning the credit boom is disproportionately financing trade and consumption-adjacent activity rather than the kind of productive capacity expansion (factories, processing plants) that would grow real GDP fast enough to close the money-vs-output gap discussed in Section 4.
7. Impact on the Exchange Rate
So far, the Shilling has absorbed the money growth without visible strain
A textbook concern with rapid domestic money creation is currency depreciation — more Shillings chasing the same pool of foreign currency should, all else equal, weaken the exchange rate. So far, that hasn't happened in a disorderly way: the Shilling actually appreciated 2.7 percent year-on-year against the US Dollar on the official interbank market in April 2026, helped by record gold export receipts and strong tourism inflows offsetting the domestic credit expansion (see TICGL's companion analysis, "Why TZS Still Ranks Among Africa's 'Weakest' Currencies in 2026", linked below).
This is an important nuance: fast M3 growth has not yet translated into currency weakness, precisely because export receipts (gold, tourism) have been strong enough to supply the foreign currency side of the equation even as domestic credit expanded rapidly. That balance is exactly what TICGL flags as the thing to watch — if gold prices or tourism receipts soften while domestic credit growth stays this high, the currency channel is where the pressure would most likely surface next.
8. The Fiscal Link: Government Domestic Borrowing
Overdraft utilisation is rising, a signal worth tracking
Part of domestic credit expansion also reflects government financing needs. Domestic debt reached TZS 39.3 trillion at the end of April 2026, up 2.3 percent from March — an increase the Bank of Tanzania attributed mainly to utilisation of the government's overdraft facility, which rose from 13.3 percent to 15.0 percent of the domestic debt stock in a single month. Government borrowing from the banking system is one of the channels through which net domestic assets — and therefore M3 — expand, alongside private sector lending.
TZS 39.3tn
Domestic debt stock, April 2026
15.0%
Share of domestic debt from overdraft, up from 13.3%
5.06%
Treasury bill weighted average yield, April 2026
5.75%
Central Bank Rate, held since Q1 2026
9. TICGL Risk Assessment
Rating the plausibility and severity of each transmission channel
Table 2 — Where Excess Money Growth Could Show Up Next
Channel
Current status
TICGL risk rating
Core inflation
Rose from 2.2% to 3.1% in one month (April 2026)
Watch closely
Headline inflation
4.0%, still within EAC/SADC target bands
Contained for now
Exchange rate (TZS/USD)
Appreciating 2.7% y/y, supported by gold & tourism
Trade credit growth of 44.2% vs. manufacturing at 4.2%
Watch closely
Government crowding-out via overdraft use
Overdraft share of domestic debt up from 13.3% to 15.0% in a month
Watch closely
Banking sector liquidity stress
Reverse repo demand fell to TZS 379.7bn from TZS 585.7bn (improving)
Low
10. TICGL Analytical Take
The money-vs-GDP gap is the single number to track. A widening gap between M3 growth (22-25%) and real GDP growth (~6%) sustained into 2027 would be a far more reliable early warning of future inflation than any single month's headline CPI print.
Financial deepening and overheating can — and probably do — coexist. Tanzania's private credit-to-GDP ratio (21.6%) is still low by international standards, meaning structural credit expansion is healthy and needed. But the pace of the last 18 months looks faster than the pace of genuine new-customer financial inclusion alone would explain.
Export receipts are currently masking the pressure. Gold and tourism inflows have let Tanzania run rapid domestic credit growth without currency strain so far. This is a favourable but not guaranteed condition — it depends on global gold prices and travel demand remaining strong.
Sectoral credit allocation matters as much as the aggregate number. Credit flowing disproportionately into trade rather than manufacturing or agro-processing raises the odds that new money shows up in consumer prices rather than in expanded productive capacity — a theme consistent with TICGL's broader research on Tanzania's industrialisation gap under FYDP IV.
11. Frequently Asked Questions
What is Tanzania's M3 money supply and how big is it?
M3 (extended broad money supply) is the broadest measure of money circulating in Tanzania's economy — currency plus all bank deposits, including foreign currency deposits. It reached TZS 65.1 trillion in April 2026, up 22.0 percent from a year earlier.
Why is Tanzania's M3 growing faster than GDP?
M3 grew 24.7 percent in 2025 versus real GDP growth of about 6.0 percent — a gap driven almost entirely by rapid domestic credit expansion (net domestic assets up 30.7 percent y/y) rather than foreign currency inflows (net foreign assets fell 0.7 percent).
Does fast M3 growth cause inflation in Tanzania?
It's a contributing risk factor rather than an automatic cause. Headline inflation rose to 4.0 percent in April 2026 (from 3.2 percent) and core inflation rose to 3.1 percent (from 2.2 percent) — both still within target bands, but the direction is consistent with what a persistent money-vs-GDP gap would predict.
What is driving Tanzania's rapid credit and money supply growth?
Private sector credit grew 23.6 percent year-on-year, led by trade (44.2%), mining and quarrying (39.7%), and transport and communication (39.7%). Private credit to GDP has risen from 14.3 percent in 2018 to 21.6 percent in 2025.
TERI
Tanzania Economic Research Institute (TERI) — a TICGL research initiative
Analysis prepared using data from the Bank of Tanzania Monthly Economic Review, May 2026, and Ministry of Finance and Planning.
Primary data source: Bank of Tanzania, Monthly Economic Review — May 2026 (ISSN 0856-6844), Tables 2.2.1, 2.2.2, A1 and A3. Figures are provisional (p) where noted in original BOT tables and subject to revision in subsequent BOT publications.
12. Muhtasari kwa Kiswahili
Fedha zinazozunguka nchini Tanzania (M3) ziliongezeka kwa asilimia 22 mwaka hadi mwaka, kufikia TZS trilioni 65.1 mwezi Aprili 2026 — sawa na karibu mara nne ya kasi ya ukuaji halisi wa uchumi (GDP) uliokadiriwa kufikia asilimia 6 pekee mwaka 2025. Ongezeko hili halitokani na fedha za kigeni zinazoingia nchini (mali za nje halisi (NFA) zilipungua kwa asilimia 0.7), bali linatokana kabisa na mikopo mikubwa ya ndani — hasa kwa sekta ya biashara (asilimia 44.2), uchimbaji madini na usafirishaji — wakati mikopo kwa sekta ya viwanda ikibaki chini sana (asilimia 4.2 tu).
Kutokana na nadharia ya kiuchumi ya fedha, endapo kiasi cha fedha kinachozunguka kinakua kwa kasi zaidi ya uzalishaji halisi wa bidhaa na huduma, matokeo yake huwa ni mfumuko wa bei (inflation) au udhaifu wa sarafu. Dalili za awali tayari zinaonekana: mfumuko wa bei wa msingi (core inflation) uliongezeka kutoka asilimia 2.2 hadi 3.1 kwa mwezi mmoja tu (Aprili 2026), ingawa bado uko ndani ya lengo la taifa.
Kwa sasa, Shilingi ya Tanzania imeendelea kuwa imara — hata ikiimarika kwa asilimia 2.7 dhidi ya Dola — kwa sababu mauzo ya dhahabu na utalii yamesaidia kuziba pengo hili. Hata hivyo, TICGL inashauri kufuatilia kwa karibu uwiano kati ya ukuaji wa fedha (M3) na ukuaji halisi wa uchumi (GDP), kwani endapo bei za dhahabu duniani au mapato ya utalii yatapungua huku mikopo ya ndani ikiendelea kukua kwa kasi hii, hapo ndipo hatari halisi ya mfumuko wa bei na udhaifu wa sarafu ingeweza kujitokeza.
Why TZS Still Ranks Among Africa's "Weakest" Currencies in 2026 — And What That Ranking Actually Means
As at June 2026, the Tanzanian Shilling trades at roughly TZS 2,600–2,635 per US Dollar, placing it 7th on the list of Africa's nominally weakest currencies. TICGL/TERI unpacks why — and shows why Bank of Tanzania's own data tells a much steadier story than the headline ranking suggests.
📅 Published: June 2026🏦 Sources: Bank of Tanzania (May 2026); Business Insider Africa / Tuko.co.ke; Trading Economics; Wise.com⏱ 13–15 min read
#7
TZS's rank among Africa's weakest currencies, June 2026
TZS 2,612
Official BOT interbank rate per USD, April 2026
+2.7%
Official y/y appreciation vs. USD, April 2026
4.4 mo.
Import cover from FX reserves
Short answer
The Tanzanian Shilling ranks among Africa's "weakest" currencies purely on a nominal, units-per-US-Dollar basis — a function of currency history and the size of Tanzania's money stock, not a sign of an unstable or crashing currency. On the metrics that actually matter for stability — the year-on-year rate of change, reserve cover, and the presence of a parallel-market premium — the Shilling has been one of the steadier currencies in East Africa through April 2026, appreciating 2.7 percent against the US Dollar on Bank of Tanzania's official interbank data. The real currency risk to watch is Tanzania's widening current account deficit and its exposure to global oil prices — not the nominal exchange-rate ranking itself.
1. The Ranking: Africa's Weakest Currencies, June 2026
Where TZS sits, and who ranks weaker
Multiple currency trackers publishing "weakest African currencies" surveys in June 2026 — compiled using Forbes calculator data by Business Insider Africa and Tuko.co.ke — place the Tanzanian Shilling 7th weakest on the continent, requiring roughly 2,600–2,635 units per US Dollar. Six African currencies now require more than 2,000 units per dollar, led by São Tomé & Príncipe's dobra and Sierra Leone's leone.
Table 1 — Africa's 10 "Weakest" Currencies by Units per US Dollar, June 2026
Rank
Country
Currency
Units per USD
1
São Tomé & Príncipe
Dobra (STD)
≈ 22,282
2
Sierra Leone
Leone (SLL)
≈ 20,970
3
Guinea
Guinean Franc (GNF)
≈ 8,764
4
Madagascar
Malagasy Ariary (MGA)
≈ 4,176
5
Uganda
Ugandan Shilling (UGX)
≈ 3,651
6
Burundi
Burundian Franc (BIF)
≈ 2,983
7
Tanzania
Tanzanian Shilling (TZS)
≈ 2,600 – 2,635
8
D.R. Congo
Congolese Franc (CDF)
≈ 2,308
9
Malawi
Malawian Kwacha (MWK)
≈ 1,734
10
Rwanda
Rwandan Franc (RWF)
≈ 1,465
Sources: Forbes currency calculator data compiled by Business Insider Africa and Tuko.co.ke (June 2026); Trading Economics; Wise.com; Exchange-Rates.org. Nominal per-USD figures vary slightly by source and by day; TICGL uses a representative mid-June 2026 range.
Chart 1 — Africa's Weakest Currencies vs. TZS: Units per US Dollar, June 2026
Loading chart…
Note: São Tomé, Sierra Leone and Guinea are truncated on this chart for readability (values in the tens of thousands). See Table 1 for full figures.
Why this ranking gets attention: Headlines built on this list travel fast because "weakest currency" sounds alarming. But nominal exchange-rate level is a poor proxy for currency health — Japan's yen trades above 140/USD and South Korea's won above 1,300/USD, and neither is considered "weak" in the crisis sense. What actually matters is covered in Sections 2–6 below.
2. What Bank of Tanzania's Official Data Actually Shows
The IFEM rate: stable, and appreciating year-on-year
On the Interbank Foreign Exchange Market (IFEM) that the Bank of Tanzania tracks and publishes monthly, the Shilling averaged TZS 2,612.46 per US Dollar in April 2026, compared with TZS 2,684.41 per USD in April 2025 — an annual appreciation of 2.7 percent. That is an improvement on the 2.5 percent appreciation recorded in March 2026, and a sharp turnaround from the 3.9 percent depreciation recorded in the same month a year earlier (April 2025). This is the opposite direction of travel implied by a "weakest currencies" headline.
Chart 2 — Official TZS/USD Exchange Rate, End of Period (Apr 2025 – Apr 2026)
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Source: Bank of Tanzania / Ministry of Finance, BOT Monthly Economic Review, May 2026, Table A10 (national debt end-of-period exchange rate).
Behind this stability: gold export receipts rose to USD 5,268.9 million (year ending April 2026) from USD 3,821.2 million a year earlier — a 38 percent jump that materially eased dollar demand pressure — while tourism receipts grew 9.5 percent to USD 4,385.3 million on a 21.7 percent rise in international arrivals. The Bank's own intervention was light: it sold just USD 15.3 million on the IFEM in April 2026 "to maintain orderly market conditions" — not the scale of intervention associated with a currency under real stress.
3. Reconciling Two Different Stories
Why official and market-tracker numbers diverge
Cross-checking independent trackers as at late June 2026: Trading Economics quoted USD/TZS around 2,625 on 3 June 2026 (Shilling down 1.16% over the prior month, but still up 1.87% over the trailing 12 months — consistent with BOT's appreciation story); Wise.com recorded a June 2026 weekly range of TZS 2,596–2,634 per USD with a six-month average of TZS 2,571; and Exchange-Rates.org noted the Shilling had eased about 6.1 percent year-to-date against the Dollar by 20 June 2026 on the specific rate series it tracks.
The gap between these figures is real and worth understanding rather than dismissing. Tanzania runs a managed, not fully liberalised, exchange rate. That means:
BOT's figure is a monthly average of the interbank rate, smoothing out day-to-day spikes that trackers like Wise or Trading Economics quote in real time.
Different reference dates. BOT's most recent published figure is for April 2026; independent trackers quote rates through late June 2026 — two months of additional currency movement not yet captured in BOT's own release cycle.
Retail/parallel spread. Rates used by international remittance and travel platforms often reflect a small retail markup over the pure interbank mid-rate BOT publishes.
Table 2 — TZS/USD: Comparing Sources, 2026
Source
Period
Rate (TZS/USD)
Bank of Tanzania (IFEM avg.)
April 2026
2,612.46
Bank of Tanzania (end of period)
April 2026
2,602.00
Trading Economics
3 Jun 2026
2,625.00
Wise.com (weekly high)
23 Jun 2026
2,634.05
Wise.com (weekly low)
25 Jun 2026
2,596.00
Wise.com (6-month avg.)
Jan–Jun 2026
2,571.25
Exchange-Rates.org
20 Jun 2026
2,630.99
Forbes Advisor / Xe
25 Jun 2026
2,617.80
TICGL read: None of these figures point to a currency in freefall. The spread across sources (roughly TZS 2,570–2,635) is a normal band for a managed float, not evidence of a parallel-market crisis of the kind seen in some of the currencies ranked weaker than TZS on Table 1.
4. Five Reasons TZS Ranks "Weak" in Nominal Terms
None of these, on their own, signal instability
01
No currency redenomination
Unlike Ghana (2007) or Zimbabwe, Tanzania has never redenominated the Shilling by dropping zeros. Decades of cumulative — even if moderate — inflation since the 1970s compound into a nominally large units-per-dollar figure today, independent of current-year stability.
02
Larger economy, larger money stock
Extended broad money (M3) reached TZS 65.1 trillion in April 2026, up 22 percent year-on-year. A bigger, faster-growing economy naturally circulates more local-currency units, which mechanically raises the units-per-dollar figure over time even without depreciation.
03
Nominal ranking ignores the growth rate
"Weakest currency" lists rank the level of the exchange rate, not its trend. Uganda, Burundi and several currencies ranked "less weak" than TZS by level have depreciated far faster in percentage terms over the past year than the Shilling has.
04
Import-dependent economy
Refined petroleum products make up about 14.4 percent of goods imports. As a net commodity importer, Tanzania's dollar demand is structurally higher than gold- and tourism-export receipts alone would otherwise imply — a genuine, if moderate, source of currency pressure.
05
Regional company, not global outlier
TZS sits in a cluster of East/Central African currencies (Uganda, Burundi, DR Congo, Rwanda, Malawi) that all require 1,000+ units per dollar for similar structural reasons. This is a regional pattern, not a Tanzania-specific weakness signal.
✓
What would actually be alarming
A widening gap between the official and black-market rate, rapidly falling reserves, or double-digit annual depreciation — none of which currently apply to TZS based on the data in this review.
5. TZS vs. Regional Peer Currencies
A closer look at East & Central African currencies
Chart 3 — TZS vs. Selected East & Central African Currencies: Units per USD, June 2026
Loading chart…
Source: Business Insider Africa / Tuko.co.ke (Forbes calculator), June 2026.
Within its immediate regional cluster, TZS sits between Rwanda/Malawi/DR Congo (nominally "stronger" by level) and Uganda/Burundi/Madagascar (nominally "weaker"). What distinguishes Tanzania is the combination of a diversified export base (gold, tourism, agriculture, manufactured goods) and a managed float backed by adequate reserves — a combination several of its lower-ranked regional peers lack.
6. The Real Risk to Watch: The Current Account & Global Oil Prices
Not the ranking — the trajectory
Tanzania's current account deficit widened to USD 2,651.8 million in the year ending April 2026, from USD 2,107.1 million a year earlier — a 25.6 percent deterioration — as import growth (15.5%) outpaced export growth (13.5%). This is financed comfortably today by gold and tourism inflows, but it is the genuine leading indicator for currency pressure, not the nominal exchange-rate ranking.
The transmission channel is direct: global crude oil prices jumped from USD 95.58/barrel in March 2026 to a monthly average of USD 103.91/barrel in April 2026 (intraday high USD 117.80), driven by Middle East tensions. Since refined petroleum makes up roughly 14.4 percent of Tanzania's goods imports, a sustained oil-price shock raises dollar demand mechanically — the more credible path to future TZS depreciation than the current nominal ranking implies.
The offsetting cushion
Gross official reserves stood at USD 5,722.5 million in April 2026 (up from USD 5,307.7 million a year earlier), covering 4.4 months of projected imports — within national and EAC benchmarks. Combined with record gold exports, this gives Bank of Tanzania meaningful room to defend orderly market conditions even if oil prices stay elevated through the rest of 2026.
Chart 4 — Current Account Balance & Foreign Exchange Reserves (Year Ending April, 2021–2026)
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Source: Bank of Tanzania, Tables A5 & A10, BOT Monthly Economic Review, May 2026.
Currency stability doesn't happen in isolation — it reflects the wider monetary and price environment. Three data points from the May 2026 BOT review matter most for the TZS story:
4.0% ▲
Headline inflation, April 2026 (from 3.2% in March)
Source: National Bureau of Statistics & Bank of Tanzania computations, BOT Monthly Economic Review, May 2026.
Why this matters for the Shilling
At its April 2026 meeting, the Monetary Policy Committee held the CBR at 5.75 percent and narrowed the policy corridor from 200 to 150 basis points to sharpen transmission — a stance consistent with defending currency stability without over-tightening credit. Inflation at 4.0 percent remains inside EAC/SADC convergence bands, meaning Tanzania is not fighting the kind of runaway domestic inflation that typically forces rapid currency depreciation elsewhere on the "weakest currencies" list (e.g., Sierra Leone, Guinea). Meanwhile, credit growth of 23.6 percent — led by trade (44.2%), mining (39.7%) and transport (39.7%) — signals an economy still expanding fast enough to keep attracting the dollar inflows that support the currency.
Chart 6 — 7-Day IBCM Rate vs. the CBR Corridor (May 2024 – April 2026)
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Source: Bank of Tanzania, BOT Monthly Economic Review, May 2026, Chart 2.2.1.
8. Budget, Debt & External Reserves Snapshot
The fiscal and external-debt picture underpinning currency confidence
Central government revenue continues to outperform target — TZS 3,836.8 billion collected in March 2026, 8.5 percent above target — while the national debt stock reached USD 51,067.2 million at end-April 2026, of which 70.4 percent was external debt, still dominated by concessional multilateral creditors (58.3 percent of the external stock). A well-managed debt profile and a revenue base that consistently beats target both support investor and creditor confidence in the currency's medium-term stability.
Chart 7 — External Debt Stock by Creditor Category, April 2026
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Source: Ministry of Finance & Bank of Tanzania, Table 2.6.2.
Chart 8 — Foreign Exchange Reserves vs. Months of Import Cover
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Source: Bank of Tanzania, Chart 2.7.1.
Table 3 — Key External Sector Indicators, Year Ending April 2026
Indicator
2025
2026 (provisional)
Change
Total exports (goods & services)
USD 16,625.0m
USD 18,876.7m
+13.5%
Total imports (goods & services)
USD 17,270.5m
USD 19,944.6m
+15.5%
Current account balance
-USD 2,107.1m
-USD 2,651.8m
Widened 25.6%
Gross official reserves
USD 5,307.7m
USD 5,722.5m
+7.8%
Gold exports
USD 3,821.2m
USD 5,268.9m
+37.9%
External debt stock
USD 33,764.5m
USD 35,949.6m
+6.5%
9. TICGL Analytical Take
Reading the "weakest currency" narrative correctly
Separate the level from the trend. Investors, importers and policymakers should track the direction of the IFEM rate and reserve cover month to month — not headline rankings built purely on nominal exchange-rate level, which say little about near-term risk.
Watch the current account, not the currency table. A 25.6 percent widening of the current account deficit in a single year is the metric most likely to translate into real TZS pressure if it persists — particularly if global oil prices stay elevated on Middle East tensions.
Gold and tourism are doing the heavy lifting. Both sectors are cyclical and exposed to global demand and price swings. A structurally sound export base still needs diversification beyond these two pillars to keep underwriting currency stability through future shocks — a theme consistent with TICGL's broader research on Tanzania's industrialisation gap.
Reserve adequacy remains the key buffer. At 4.4 months of import cover, Tanzania has room to absorb short-term shocks without disorderly currency moves, but this buffer would erode if the current account deficit trend continues unaddressed.
10. Frequently Asked Questions
Why does the Tanzanian Shilling rank among Africa's weakest currencies?
As of June 2026, TZS trades at roughly TZS 2,600–2,635 per US Dollar, ranking 7th weakest in Africa on a nominal units-per-dollar basis, behind São Tomé, Sierra Leone, Guinea, Madagascar, Uganda and Burundi. This reflects currency history (no redenomination) and the size of Tanzania's money stock — not an indicator of acute currency crisis.
Is the Tanzanian Shilling actually losing value?
Not on Bank of Tanzania's own official interbank (IFEM) data: TZS averaged 2,612.46 per USD in April 2026, up 2.7 percent year-on-year. Independent trackers quote day-specific rates in the 2,600–2,635 range through June 2026 and describe modest year-to-date softening — a gap explained by averaging methods, reference dates and retail spreads, not a currency collapse.
What is the difference between a "weak" currency and a "depreciating" currency?
A currency's nominal exchange rate level reflects history and structure; a depreciating currency is one losing value over time. TZS requires many units per dollar (nominal characteristic) but has been broadly stable to appreciating year-on-year on official data — unlike several African currencies experiencing double-digit annual depreciation.
What could cause the Tanzanian Shilling to weaken further?
The most plausible risk is Tanzania's widening current account deficit (USD 2,651.8 million, year ending April 2026), driven by import growth outpacing exports. A sustained rise in global oil prices linked to Middle East tensions would raise the fuel import bill and could pressure the Shilling, even as gold and tourism receipts currently offset this.
How does Tanzania defend the Shilling's exchange rate?
Through light IFEM interventions (USD 15.3 million sold in April 2026) backed by gross official reserves of USD 5,722.5 million, covering about 4.4 months of projected imports — in line with national and EAC benchmarks.
TERI
Tanzania Economic Research Institute (TERI) — a TICGL research initiative
Analysis prepared using data from the Bank of Tanzania Monthly Economic Review, May 2026; Ministry of Finance and Planning; National Bureau of Statistics; Tanzania Revenue Authority; and independent currency-market trackers (Trading Economics, Wise.com, Exchange-Rates.org, Forbes Advisor, Business Insider Africa / Tuko.co.ke).
Primary data source: Bank of Tanzania, Monthly Economic Review — May 2026 (ISSN 0856-6844). Supplementary sources: Business Insider Africa / Tuko.co.ke, "Top 10 African Countries With Weakest Currencies as of June 2026"; Trading Economics, Tanzania Shilling currency data; Wise.com and Exchange-Rates.org historical USD/TZS rates; Forbes Advisor currency converter. Figures are provisional (p) where noted in original BOT tables and subject to revision in subsequent BOT publications.
11. Muhtasari kwa Kiswahili: Kwa Nini TZS Inaonekana "Dhaifu" Barani Afrika?
Ukweli kwa ufupi
Shilingi ya Tanzania (TZS) imeorodheshwa nafasi ya 7 miongoni mwa sarafu "dhaifu" zaidi Afrika mwezi Juni 2026, ikihitaji takribani shilingi 2,600–2,635 kununua dola moja ya Marekani. Hata hivyo, hii ni kipimo cha kiwango cha ubadilishaji fedha, si kipimo cha uthabiti wa sarafu. Kwa mujibu wa takwimu rasmi za Benki Kuu ya Tanzania (BOT), Shilingi iliimarika kwa asilimia 2.7 dhidi ya dola mwaka hadi mwaka, ikifikia wastani wa TZS 2,612.46 kwa dola mwezi Aprili 2026.
Kwa nini basi TZS inaonekana "dhaifu"?
Sababu kuu tano: (1) Tanzania haijawahi kupunguza sufuri kwenye sarafu yake (redenomination) tofauti na nchi kama Ghana; (2) uchumi mkubwa zaidi na ongezeko la fedha zinazozunguka (M3 iliongezeka kwa asilimia 22 mwaka hadi mwaka); (3) orodha za "sarafu dhaifu" huangalia kiwango tu, si kasi ya mabadiliko; (4) Tanzania inaagiza bidhaa nyingi kutoka nje, hasa mafuta (asilimia 14.4 ya bidhaa zote zinazoagizwa); na (5) TZS ipo katika kundi la sarafu za Afrika Mashariki na ya Kati (Uganda, Burundi, DR Congo, Rwanda) zenye mfumo unaofanana.
Hatari halisi ya kufuatilia
Jambo la kufuatilia si nafasi ya TZS kwenye orodha, bali nakisi ya urari wa biashara wa nje (current account deficit) ambayo iliongezeka hadi Dola milioni 2,651.8 mwaka hadi Aprili 2026, kutoka Dola milioni 2,107.1 mwaka uliopita — ikichangiwa na ongezeko la uagizaji bidhaa (15.5%) kuzidi ukuaji wa mauzo nje (13.5%). Endapo bei za mafuta duniani zitaendelea kupanda kutokana na mzozo wa Mashariki ya Kati, hii ndiyo njia halisi inayoweza kusababisha shinikizo kwa Shilingi — si nafasi yake kwenye orodha ya sarafu dhaifu.
Kinga zilizopo
Akiba ya fedha za kigeni ilifikia Dola milioni 5,722.5 (Aprili 2026), inayotosheleza kugharamia miezi 4.4 ya uagizaji bidhaa — sawa na viwango vya lengo la taifa na Jumuiya ya Afrika Mashariki (EAC). Mauzo ya dhahabu nje yaliongezeka kwa asilimia 37.9 mwaka hadi mwaka, jambo lililopunguza kwa kiasi kikubwa uhitaji wa dola.
Hitimisho la TICGL
Kuorodheshwa kwa TZS kama "sarafu dhaifu" ni suala la kiwango cha kihesabu, si dalili ya mgogoro wa kiuchumi. Wawekezaji na wafanyabiashara wanapaswa kufuatilia mwenendo wa kiwango cha ubadilishaji fedha (IFEM), akiba ya fedha za kigeni, na hali ya urari wa biashara wa nje — vipimo ambavyo bado vinaonesha uthabiti kwa Tanzania.
