Introduction
Tanzania's economy demonstrated robust resilience in 2025, achieving real GDP growth of 5.9%, slightly exceeding initial projections and maintaining the country's position as one of East Africa's fastest-growing economies. This performance was driven by strong contributions from agriculture, mining, construction, and tourism sectors, alongside prudent macroeconomic management that kept inflation within target and strengthened external reserves.
Looking ahead to 2026, the economy is projected to accelerate to 6.1% growth, underpinned by continued investments in infrastructure (including the $42 billion LNG initiative), mining expansion, tourism recovery, and agricultural modernization. Key strengths include low inflation, improved current account balance, strong foreign reserves, and exceptional private sector credit growth of 20.3%.
Key Highlights for 2025
- GDP Performance: Mainland Tanzania achieved 5.9% real growth, with Zanzibar posting an impressive 6.8%
- Sectoral Stars: Mining grew 19%, Tourism expanded 21%, and Finance & Insurance increased 15%
- Inflation Control: Maintained at 3.5% average, well within the BoT's 3-5% target range
- External Position: Current account deficit narrowed to 2.2% of GDP—a five-year low
- Credit Expansion: Private sector credit surged 20.3%, reflecting strong investment appetite
- Fiscal Discipline: Government debt at 40.6% of GDP (NPV), well below the 55% threshold
- Foreign Reserves: Exceeded $6.3 billion, covering 4.9 months of imports
🎯 2026 Outlook
The economy is positioned for stronger growth in 2026, driven by the commencement of mega infrastructure projects (particularly the $42 billion LNG development), continued mining expansion, tourism recovery momentum, and agricultural productivity improvements. Key risks include global geopolitical tensions, commodity price volatility, and climate-related shocks, though most remain manageable with proactive policy responses.
GDP Performance and Growth Trajectory
1.1 Quarterly GDP Growth in 2025
Tanzania's GDP growth showed an upward trend throughout 2025, with stronger performance in the second half of the year. The acceleration from 5.4% in Q1 to 6.3% in Q2 reflected strengthening economic momentum, particularly in mining and financial services sectors.
| Quarter | Real GDP Growth (YoY, %) | Key Drivers | GDP at Constant 2015 Prices (TZS Trillion) | GDP at Current Prices (TZS Trillion) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 (Jan-Mar) | 5.4% | Mining (16.6%), Electricity (19.0%), Finance (15.4%) | Not specified | 54.2 |
| Q2 (Apr-Jun) | 6.3% | Mining (19.0%), Finance (14.8%), Electricity (14.0%) | 40.7 | 59.6 |
| Q3 (Jul-Sep) | >6.0% (estimated) | Agriculture, mining, construction | Not available | Not available |
| Q4 (Oct-Dec) | Contributing to 5.9% | Tourism, manufacturing | Not available | Not available |
| Full Year 2025 | 5.9% | Agriculture, mining, construction, tourism | Not specified | Not specified |
Sources: National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) Q1 and Q2 reports, Bank of Tanzania (BoT) Monetary Policy Report
Quarterly GDP Growth Trend in 2025
1.2 GDP Trajectory and Projections (2020-2030)
The data shows consistent post-COVID recovery, with 2025 marking a significant 10.3% jump from 2024, reflecting both real growth and favorable exchange rate dynamics. Tanzania's nominal GDP is projected to reach $138.58 billion by 2030, more than doubling from the 2020 baseline of $63.37 billion.
| Year | Nominal GDP (Billion USD) | Status | Annual Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $63.37 | Actual | — |
| 2021 | $67.96 | Actual | +7.2% |
| 2022 | $74.17 | Actual | +9.1% |
| 2023 | $78.37 | Actual | +5.7% |
| 2024 | $79.24 | Estimated | +1.1% |
| 2025 | $87.44 | Estimated | +10.3% |
| 2026 | $95.35 | Projected | +9.0% |
| 2027 | $104.65 | Projected | +9.8% |
| 2028 | $115.06 | Projected | +9.9% |
| 2029 | $126.39 | Projected | +9.8% |
| 2030 | $138.58 | Projected | +9.6% |
Source: Statista, International Monetary Fund (IMF)
Tanzania's Nominal GDP Evolution & Projections (2020-2030)
📈 Growth Analysis
The projected growth trajectory from 2026-2030 reflects Tanzania's structural transformation driven by: (1) Major infrastructure investments including the $42B LNG project; (2) Mining sector expansion with gold and emerging minerals; (3) Tourism sector recovery and diversification; (4) Agricultural modernization and value addition; (5) Regional integration and improved trade connectivity. This positions Tanzania to potentially become a $140+ billion economy by 2030, cementing its status as a major East African economic hub.
Key Macroeconomic Indicators: 2025 vs. 2026
A comprehensive comparison of Tanzania's core economic metrics reveals consistent strengthening across multiple indicators, with particular improvements in GDP growth, inflation stability, external balance, and credit expansion. The 2026 projections suggest continued positive momentum with accelerating growth and maintained macroeconomic stability.
| Indicator | 2025 (Actual/Estimated) | 2026 (Projected) | Notes/Sources |
|---|---|---|---|
| Real GDP Growth (%) | 5.9 (Mainland); 6.8 (Zanzibar) | 6.1 (Mainland); 7.2 (Zanzibar) | Driven by agriculture, mining, tourism. BoT, IMF |
| Nominal GDP (Billion USD) | $87.44 | $95.35 | Statista estimates |
| GDP PPP (Billion USD) | $293.63 | Not specified | Wikipedia |
| GDP per Capita (Nominal USD) | $1,300 | $1,380 | IMF, +6.2% increase |
| Inflation (Average, %) | 3.5 (Q4) | 3.5 (within 3-5% target) | Stable due to food stocks, low imported inflation. BoT |
| Unemployment Rate (%) | 2.2 (older estimate) | Not specified | Limited recent data |
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | -2.2% | -2.7% | Narrowed in 2025 due to gold/tourism exports. BoT, IMF |
| Government Gross Debt (% of GDP) | 40.6 (NPV) | 48.3 | Declined in 2025; below 55% threshold. BoT, IMF |
| Private Sector Credit Growth (%) | 20.3% | Not specified | Strong expansion in mining and tourism. BoT |
| Foreign Reserves (Billion USD) | >$6.3 (4.9 months of imports) | Not specified | BoT |
| Central Bank Rate (%) | 5.75 | 5.75 (maintained) | Stable monetary policy stance |
Sources: Bank of Tanzania (BoT), International Monetary Fund (IMF), National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), Statista
Key Macroeconomic Indicators Comparison (2025 vs 2026)
Macroeconomic Strengths
- Inflation Stability: Successfully maintained within the 3-5% target range throughout 2025
- External Balance: Current account deficit at historic low of 2.2%, driven by strong gold exports and tourism
- Fiscal Discipline: Government debt declining and well below the 55% threshold, ensuring sustainability
- Monetary Stability: Central Bank Rate held steady at 5.75%, supporting investment while controlling inflation
- Reserve Adequacy: Foreign reserves covering nearly 5 months of imports, well above international standards
- Credit Dynamism: Exceptional 20.3% private sector credit growth signaling strong business confidence