Currency Appreciation Anchors Price Stability and Economic Confidence
Tanzania's price stability in November 2025 was firmly anchored by a strengthening shilling and credible monetary policy framework. The Tanzanian Shilling appreciated significantly from TZS 2,460.54/USD in October to TZS 2,444.81/USD in November, representing a month-on-month gain of TZS 15.73. More impressively, the currency posted an 8.1% year-on-year appreciation, completely reversing the 6.3% depreciation recorded a year earlier.
This currency strength, backed by robust foreign reserves of USD 6.43 billion (equivalent to 4.9 months of import cover), created favorable conditions for price stability. Headline inflation remained firmly contained at 3.4%, comfortably within the Bank of Tanzania's 3-5% target range, while core inflation stood at just 2.3%, signaling subdued demand-side pressures and well-anchored inflation expectations.
The appreciating shilling effectively dampened imported inflation pressures, particularly for fuel and consumer goods. Petrol prices declined to approximately TZS 2,883 per liter, reducing transportation and production costs across the economy. Energy and fuel inflation moderated to 3.8% from 4.0%, while stable foreign exchange availability—evidenced by IFEM turnover of USD 158.7 million—ensured smooth import financing without cost-push shocks.
Headline inflation at 3.4% remains well within the Bank of Tanzania's 3-5% target range, demonstrating effective monetary policy transmission and the stabilizing impact of currency appreciation on import prices. Core inflation at 2.3% confirms that underlying price pressures are subdued, with no signs of demand-driven overheating.
| Indicator | October 2025 | November 2025 | Implication |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average Exchange Rate (TZS/USD) | 2,460.54 | 2,444.81 | Shilling Appreciated |
| Month-on-Month Change | — | –15.73 TZS | Reduced Depreciation Pressure |
| Year-on-Year Change | — | +8.1% Appreciation | Reversal from 6.3% Depreciation (Nov 2024) |
| FX Reserves | — | USD 6,432.9 million | 4.9 Months Import Cover |
| Inflation Measure | November 2024 | October 2025 | November 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Headline Inflation (%) | 3.0 | 3.5 | 3.4 |
| Core Inflation (%) | 3.3 | 2.1 | 2.3 |
| Energy, Fuel & Utilities (%) | 5.7 | 4.0 | 3.8 |
| Food Inflation | Elevated | Moderating | Moderating |
The strengthening Tanzanian Shilling has been instrumental in containing imported inflation through multiple transmission channels.
| Transmission Channel | Evidence from Data | Inflation Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Import Price Channel | Shilling appreciated YoY by 8.1% | ✓ Lower Imported Inflation |
| Fuel Price Effect | Petrol fell to TZS 2,883/litre | ✓ Reduced Transport & Production Costs |
| Exchange Rate Pass-Through | Pass-through subdued and controlled | ✓ Limited Price Shocks |
| FX Availability | IFEM turnover USD 158.7 million | ✓ Stable Import Financing |
Impact: Lower fuel costs reduce transportation expenses, manufacturing costs, and second-round inflation effects across the economy.
Impact: Stronger shilling makes imports cheaper in TZS terms, directly lowering costs for consumer goods, raw materials, and capital equipment.
Impact: Liquid FX market ensures smooth import financing without exchange rate volatility that could trigger price adjustments.
The 8.1% shilling appreciation has effectively reduced the TZS cost of imported goods, particularly fuel and consumer products. This has been a primary factor in keeping headline inflation within target despite global commodity price pressures. The transmission has been smooth and effective, demonstrating the importance of exchange rate stability for price control.
| Monetary Policy Indicator | Value | Relevance to Inflation Control |
|---|---|---|
| Central Bank Rate (CBR) | 5.75% | Anchors inflation expectations; accommodative stance |
| 7-Day IBCM Rate | 6.15% | Within policy corridor; effective transmission |
| Policy Target | Inflation 3-5% | ✓ Achieved (3.4%) |
| FX Intervention (Nov 2025) | USD 52.5 million net sale | Smoothed FX volatility; supported stability |
The relationship between currency stability and inflation control demonstrates a mutually reinforcing dynamic that has anchored Tanzania's macroeconomic performance.
| Performance Indicator | November 2025 Outcome | Inflation Effect |
|---|---|---|
| Exchange Rate | Appreciated 8.1% YoY | ✓ Lower Import-Driven Inflation |
| Fuel Prices | Declining to TZS 2,883/L | ✓ Reduced Second-Round Effects |
| Core Inflation | Fell to 2.3% | ✓ Demand Pressures Subdued |
| Headline Inflation | Stable at 3.4% | ✓ Within Target Range |
| Food Supply | Improved | ✓ Offset Food Price Shocks |
| FX Reserves | USD 6.43 billion (4.9 months) | ✓ Shields Against External Shocks |
Strong exports → FX inflows → Currency appreciation → Lower import costs → Contained inflation → Anchored expectations → Investment confidence → Economic growth
This positive feedback loop demonstrates how Tanzania's export-driven growth model, combined with prudent monetary policy, creates a stable macroeconomic environment conducive to sustained development.
Contribution: Currency strength is the primary anchor for price stability, reducing imported inflation and supporting purchasing power.
Contribution: Declining import costs reduce cost-push pressures throughout the supply chain.
Contribution: Credible and accommodative policy framework maintains confidence while supporting growth.
Contribution: Strong reserves provide resilience against external shocks and maintain confidence.
All four pillars of macroeconomic stability are functioning effectively in Tanzania as of November 2025:
The November 2025 data provides compelling evidence that Tanzania's shilling stability has been instrumental in maintaining low and predictable inflation. The 8.1% year-on-year appreciation of the Tanzanian Shilling, supported by strong export performance and adequate foreign reserves of USD 6.43 billion, has effectively anchored price stability across the economy.
Key achievements demonstrate the effectiveness of this framework:
Headline inflation at 3.4% remains comfortably within the Bank of Tanzania's 3-5% target range, with core inflation at just 2.3% signaling well-controlled demand pressures.
✓ Policy SuccessThe appreciating shilling has reduced imported inflation, particularly for fuel (down to TZS 2,883/L) and consumer goods, dampening cost-push pressures.
✓ Import Cost ReliefEffective monetary policy transmission and strategic FX interventions have maintained stability without aggressive tightening, preserving growth momentum.
✓ Balanced ApproachStrong reserves (4.9 months) and improving external balances provide buffer against shocks, supporting sustained stability.
✓ Shock AbsorptionTanzania's macroeconomic performance in November 2025 demonstrates that exchange rate stability, backed by strong fundamentals and credible monetary policy, is a powerful anchor for inflation control. The appreciating shilling has:
This virtuous cycle—where strong exports generate FX inflows, strengthen the currency, lower import costs, and contain inflation—positions Tanzania favorably for continued macroeconomic stability and sustainable growth into 2026.
To maintain this positive trajectory, Tanzania should continue to:
With inflation anchored at 3.4%, currency appreciating, and reserves adequate, Tanzania's macroeconomic framework provides a solid foundation for sustained development and improved living standards.