TICGL

| Economic Consulting Group

TICGL | Economic Consulting Group
Tanzania Government Securities Market
January 7, 2026  
Tanzania Government Securities Market - November 2025 | Strong Demand & Declining Yields | TICGL Tanzania Government Securities Market Strong Investor Confidence & Financial Stability Drive Market Performance ๐Ÿ“… November 2025 ๐Ÿ“Š Bank of Tanzania Market Review ๐Ÿ’น Complete Market Analysis Key Market Highlights Treasury Bills Oversubscription 2.3ร— TZS 798.4bn bids vs TZS 352bn tender […]
Tanzania Government Securities Market - November 2025 | Strong Demand & Declining Yields | TICGL

Tanzania Government Securities Market

Strong Investor Confidence & Financial Stability Drive Market Performance

๐Ÿ“… November 2025
๐Ÿ“Š Bank of Tanzania Market Review
๐Ÿ’น Complete Market Analysis

Key Market Highlights

Treasury Bills Oversubscription
2.3ร—

TZS 798.4bn bids vs TZS 352bn tender

Treasury Bonds Oversubscription
3.0ร—

TZS 1,008.6bn bids vs TZS 340.4bn tender

T-Bill Yield
6.25%

Down from 6.27% (declining trend)

Total Domestic Financing
TZS 442.7bn

60.5% from long-term bonds

Introduction

Tanzania's financial markets in November 2025 demonstrated exceptional strength, reflecting robust liquidity and high investor confidence. Government securities auctions were significantly oversubscribed, with Treasury Bills attracting bids worth TZS 798.4 billion against a tender of TZS 352.0 billion, representing 2.3 times oversubscription. Treasury Bonds recorded even stronger demand at approximately 3.0 times oversubscription, signaling substantial appetite for risk-free government assets.

Yields edged downward, with T-bill yields declining to 6.25% from 6.27%, indicating easing government borrowing costs and improved market conditions. The government successfully raised TZS 442.7 billion domestically, with 60.5% sourced from long-term bonds, strategically reducing rollover risks and strengthening debt sustainability.

๐ŸŽฏ What This Means for Investors

  • Declining yields reflect cheaper government borrowing costs and reduced perceived risk
  • Heavy oversubscription indicates excess banking system liquidity seeking safe assets
  • Strong demand for long-term bonds signals confidence in Tanzania's macroeconomic stability
  • Favorable environment for both government financing and investor returns

Treasury Bills Performance - November 2025

IndicatorValue
Number of Auctions2
Total Tender SizeTZS 352.0 billion
Total Bids ReceivedTZS 798.4 billion
Amount AcceptedTZS 369.2 billion
Oversubscription Ratio2.3 times
Weighted Average Yield6.25%
Previous Month Yield6.27%

๐Ÿ“ˆ Analysis & Interpretation

  • The 2.3x oversubscription signals excess liquidity in the banking system and strong demand for risk-free government instruments
  • Declining yields (6.27% to 6.25%) indicate easing financing conditions, making government borrowing cheaper
  • High acceptance rate demonstrates government's ability to secure funding at favorable rates
  • Short-term instruments remain attractive for liquidity management by financial institutions

Treasury Bonds Performance - November 2025

Bond TenorTender SizeTotal BidsAcceptedWeighted Avg Yield
5-Year BondTZS 174.9 billionโ€”โ€”10.54%
15-Year BondTZS 165.5 billionโ€”โ€”12.08%
TotalTZS 340.4 billionTZS 1,008.6 billionTZS 329.3 billionโ‰ˆ3.0ร— oversubscribed

๐Ÿ’ก Key Insights

  • Exceptional 3.0x oversubscription reflects strong confidence in Tanzania's macroeconomic stability and predictable fiscal policy
  • Higher yields on longer tenors (12.08% for 15-year vs 10.54% for 5-year) appropriately compensate investors for duration risk
  • Strong demand for long-term securities enables government to lock in favorable borrowing rates
  • Declining trend in yields indicates favorable long-term borrowing conditions and controlled inflation expectations

Government Domestic Financing Composition

InstrumentAmount RaisedShare (%)
Treasury BondsTZS 267.7 billion60.5%
Treasury BillsTZS 175.0 billion39.5%
Total Domestic FinancingTZS 442.7 billion100%

๐Ÿฆ Strategic Financing Analysis

  • Government's strategic preference for long-term bonds (60.5% of total financing) reduces rollover risks
  • Balanced financing mix supports domestic debt sustainability while maintaining market liquidity
  • Higher bond proportion extends debt maturity profile, improving fiscal stability
  • Successful domestic financing reduces reliance on external borrowing and currency risk

Interbank Cash Market (IBCM) Analysis

The Interbank Cash Market continued to function smoothly, supported by adequate shilling liquidity and effective monetary policy operations by the Bank of Tanzania.

Market Turnover Trends

IndicatorValue
Total Turnover (November)TZS 1,781.0 billion
Previous Month Turnover (October)TZS 2,255.4 billion
Month-on-Month Changeโ€“21.0%
Dominant Tenor7-day transactions
Share of 7-day Transactions75.7%

Interest Rate Corridor

Rate CategoryOctober 2025November 2025
Overall IBCM Rate6.38%6.30%
7-Day IBCM Rate (Average)6.38%6.30%
Central Bank Rate (CBR)5.75%5.75%
Policy Corridorยฑ2 percentage pointsยฑ2 percentage points

Liquidity Conditions & Central Bank Operations

IndicatorOctober 2025November 2025Trend
Reverse Repo AuctionsTZS 869.2 billionTZS 645.7 billionโ†“ Decline
Reduced reliance on reverse repos indicates improved liquidity and lower central bank intervention requirements

๐Ÿ” IBCM Market Interpretation

  • Declining Turnover: 21% month-on-month decrease reflects reduced liquidity pressures as banks maintained sufficient reserves
  • Stable Interest Rates: IBCM rate (6.30%) remains comfortably within policy corridor, confirming effective BoT liquidity management
  • Reduced Interventions: Lower reverse repo operations (TZS 645.7bn from TZS 869.2bn) show ample system liquidity
  • Effective Policy Transmission: Close alignment between market rates and Central Bank Rate demonstrates strong monetary policy effectiveness

Overall Market Assessment

Government Securities Market

Condition: High demand with falling yields

Signal: Strong investor confidence in fiscal stability and macroeconomic management

โœ“ Highly Positive

Interbank Cash Market

Condition: Adequate liquidity with stable rates

Signal: Effective monetary transmission and well-functioning liquidity framework

โœ“ Stable & Healthy

Financial System Overall

Condition: Smooth functioning across all segments

Signal: Macro-financial stability supported by credible policy framework

โœ“ Excellent Health

๐ŸŒŸ Conclusion: A Resilient Financial System

The government securities market and interbank cash market jointly demonstrate a stable, liquid, and well-managed financial system in Tanzania as of November 2025. Strong demand for government paper, declining yields, and stable interbank rates reflect:

  • Credible Monetary Policy: Bank of Tanzania's effective liquidity management maintains stability
  • Low Inflation Environment: Controlled price pressures around 3.4% support real returns
  • Improved Fiscal Discipline: Strategic debt management reduces rollover risks
  • Investor Confidence: Both domestic and institutional investors demonstrate strong appetite for Tanzanian assets
  • Economic Resilience: Positive growth drivers including exports, tourism, and gold production

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