Tanzania's total national debt stock (external + domestic) stood at USD 50,932.1 million at end-October 2025, equivalent to approximately TZS 125.3 trillion at the average exchange rate of TZS 2,460 per USD for the month. This marks a marginal 0.1% decline from end-September's USD 50,772.4 million (TZS 124.9 trillion), primarily due to amortization offsets exceeding new disbursements, per the Bank of Tanzania's (BoT) Monthly Economic Review for November 2025 (covering October data). As of December 13, 2025, preliminary estimates from the Ministry of Finance and market sources (e.g., TICGL reports) suggest the stock has stabilized around USD 51,000 million (TZS 125.5 trillion), with no major November auctions altering the trajectory significantly—domestic issuance totaled TZS 764.5 billion in September, but October's TZS 327.7 billion was more subdued. The debt-to-GDP ratio remains at 49.6%, down from 50.8% in September, reflecting 6.3% Q2 GDP growth and prudent management under the FY2025/26 budget (TZS 49.2 trillion total).
Economic Implications: At ~50% of GDP, the debt level is sustainable per IMF benchmarks (moderate risk of distress), enabling concessional financing for Vision 2050 priorities like infrastructure (28% budget allocation, contributing 1.2% to GDP via hydropower/roads) and social sectors (21.5% share, aiding poverty reduction from 26.4%). The slight contraction provides fiscal breathing room, capping service costs at 6.5% of revenues (TZS 3.2 trillion annually) and supporting monetary easing (CBR at 5.75%). However, with tax revenues at 13.1% of GDP (below peers' 17%), reliance on borrowing risks crowding-out private credit (16.1% YoY growth but below 20% target), potentially shaving 0.5% off 6.2% FY2025/26 growth if yields rise amid global tightening. Positively, shilling appreciation (9.5% YoY) has saved TZS 3-4 trillion in external servicing, bolstering reserves (USD 6.17 billion, 4.7 months cover) and inflation anchoring (3.4% in November). Read More: Tanzania’s National Debt October 2025
| Indicator | End-Oct 2025 (TZS Trillion) | End-Sep 2025 (TZS Trillion) | Change (MoM) | Notes |
| Total National Debt | 125.3 | 124.9 | +0.3% | Slight rise; external dip offset by domestic issuance. |
| As % of GDP (Projected) | 49.6% | 50.8% | -1.2 pp | Sustainable; IMF projects 48% by FY2026. |
| Annual Debt Service (Est.) | 3.2 | 3.1 | +3.2% | 20% of revenues; external 70% share. |
Source: BoT November Review; preliminary November from TICGL and Trading Economics (government debt USD 15,334M Sep, partial). Trends: November stabilization (est. +0.2% MoM) ties to TZS 750 billion bond auctions (oversubscribed 2.1x), per TICGL.
Economic Implications: Contained ratio (below 55% EAC threshold) enhances credibility, lowering Eurobond spreads (6.8%) and attracting FDI (USD 1.5 billion Q3, +10% YoY). Service stability frees 2% budget for capex (47.2% execution), driving 6% growth, but low revenue elasticity (1.1) heightens vulnerability—Deloitte 2025 recommends digital tax reforms to add TZS 1-2 trillion, mitigating 1% GDP drag from potential arrears.
External debt totaled USD 35,385.5 million at end-October 2025, equivalent to TZS 87.1 trillion (69.5% of total national debt). This reflects a 0.1% MoM decline from September's USD 35,438.3 million (TZS 87.2 trillion), driven by USD 131 million in amortizations outpacing USD 89.9 million in new loans. As of December 13, 2025, estimates peg it at ~USD 35,400 million (TZS 87.2 trillion), with November net disbursements of USD 50 million (mostly multilateral for infra). The portfolio is 66% USD-denominated, with average interest at 3.2% and maturity 12.8 years, ensuring concessionality (grant element 45%).
Economic Implications: External dominance (69.5%) leverages low-cost multilateral funds (57.4% share) for productive investments (e.g., USD 443 million September disbursements to energy/social, adding 0.8% GDP), aligning with AfCFTA (USD 1 billion trade potential). Shilling strength saves TZS 2.5 trillion in servicing (USD 220.5 million October, TZS 0.54 trillion), stabilizing reserves and inflation (non-food 2.1%). However, USD exposure amplifies FX risks—depreciation could add 0.5% to CPI—while private sector rise (18.3%) signals maturity but ties growth to FDI (10% YoY). IMF notes moderate distress risk, but export dependency (gold 50%) warrants hedging to sustain 6.2% growth.
| Component | USD Million | TZS Equivalent (Trillion) | % of External | Notes/Source |
| Public External Debt | 28,908.5 | 71.1 | 81.7% | Central govt; infra/social focus (BoT). |
| Private External Debt | 6,477.0 | 15.9 | 18.3% | FDI-linked; +12% YoY (BoT). |
| Total External Debt | 35,385.5 | 87.1 | 100% | - |
| External Debt Service (Oct) | 220.5 | 0.54 | - | Principal 60%, interest 40% (BoT). |
| New External Loans (Oct) | 89.9 | 0.22 | - | Multilateral 70% (BoT). |
November Update: Service est. USD 210 million (TZS 0.52 trillion, -5% MoM); new loans USD 120 million (TZS 0.30 trillion), per TICGL.
Economic Implications: Public skew (81.7%) channels resources to multipliers (roads/energy +1.2% GDP), but private growth fosters diversification (18.3%, supporting manufacturing 3.5%). Low service (12% exports) aids buffers, yet new loans' concessionality (45% grants) is key—shifts to commercial (35.2%) could raise costs 1%, per World Bank, risking 0.3% growth drag without revenue hikes.
Domestic debt reached TZS 38,114.8 billion (TZS 38.1 trillion) at end-October 2025, up 1.8% from September's TZS 37,459 billion, driven by TZS 327.7 billion issuance. As of December 13, 2025, it stands at ~TZS 38.5 trillion (+1% est. from November bonds TZS 750 billion), comprising 30.5% of total debt. Composition favors long-term instruments (T-bonds 77.5%), with average yield 10.8% and maturity 8.2 years.
Economic Implications: Domestic rise (30.5% share) reduces FX risks (vs. 69.5% external), funding 83.6% of development spend (TZS 137 billion October) for infra (2% GDP boost). Institutional concentration (banks/pensions 51.5%) ensures stability but crowds-out SMEs (credit 16.1% vs. 20% target), per SECO 2025—retail expansion (27% "others") could unlock TZS 1 trillion, enhancing inclusion. Service (TZS 482.4 billion October, 12% revenues) is manageable, but yield sensitivity risks 0.4% budget pressure if liquidity tightens.
| Creditor Category | Amount (TZS Billion) | % Share | Notes/Source |
| Commercial Banks | 12,020.7 | 31.5% | Largest; risk-free preference (BoT). |
| Pension Funds | 7,818.3 | 20.5% | Long-term matching (BoT). |
| Bank of Tanzania (BoT) | 8,008.4 | 21.0% | Liquidity ops (BoT). |
| Others (public/private/individuals/non-residents) | 10,267.4 | 27.0% | Diversifying; +5% YoY (BoT). |
| Total Domestic Debt | 38,114.8 | 100% | - |
November Update: Banks ~32% (est. TZS 12.3 trillion), others +2% from retail bonds, per TICGL.
| Instrument | TZS Billion | % Share | Notes/Source |
| Treasury Bonds | 29,541.8 | 77.5% | Long-term; 59.2% overall debt (BoT). |
| Treasury Bills | 8,343.5 | 21.9% | Short-term liquidity (BoT). |
| Other Liabilities | 229.5 | 0.6% | Overdrafts (BoT). |
| Total | 38,114.8 | 100% | - |
Economic Implications: Bond dominance extends maturities, curbing rollover (25% in 2024), but bill reliance (21.9%) signals short-term bias—shifting to bonds saves 0.5% interest (TZS 1.4 trillion annually). Instruments support 65% development budget, but "others" growth aids inclusion (1 million retail holders), potentially adding 0.5% GDP via multipliers.
October issuance focused on domestic (TZS 327.7 billion, 100% market-based), with bonds 55% for maturity extension. Servicing totaled TZS 482.4 billion (domestic), consuming 20.7% of revenues but below 25% sustainability threshold.
| Category | TZS Billion | Notes/Source |
| Domestic Borrowing Raised | 327.7 | Oversubscribed auctions (BoT). |
| – Treasury Bonds | 179.0 | 2/10-year maturities (BoT). |
| – Treasury Bills | 148.7 | Short-term funding (BoT). |
November Update: TZS 750 billion (bonds 80%), oversubscribed 2x, yields stable (10.85% 5-year), per BoT.
| Category | TZS Billion | Notes/Source |
| Total Domestic Debt Service | 482.4 | 42% of monthly revenues (BoT ). |
| – Principal | 204.5 | Amortizations (BoT). |
| – Interest | 277.9 | 58% share; stable yields (BoT). |
Economic Implications: Modest issuance (TZS 327.7 billion, 14% monthly deficit) maintains discipline, funding capex without monetization, while service (TZS 482.4 billion) pressures revenues—yet concessional terms keep ratio low (12% exports). November surge supports Q4 growth (6.9% est.), but external service (USD 220.5 million October) risks FX drain; hedging via forwards saves 0.3% GDP, per Afreximbank.
| Debt Category | USD (Million) | TZS Equivalent (Trillion) | % of Total | Source/Notes |
| Total National Debt | 50,932.1 | 125.3 | 100% | BoT ; 49.6% GDP. |
| External Debt | 35,385.5 | 87.1 | 69.5% | BoT . |
| Domestic Debt | N/A | 38.1 | 30.5% | BoT . |
| Public External % | 81.7% of external | 71.1 (TZS) | - | Govt-dominant (BoT PDF). |
| Private External % | 18.3% of external | 15.9 (TZS) | - | FDI-linked (BoT). |
November Est.: Total ~TZS 125.5T (+0.2%); external stable, domestic +1% (TICGL/Trading Economics).
Overall Economic Implications: Tanzania's TZS 125.3 trillion debt (October) funds resilient growth (6.3% Q2), with balanced external/domestic mix (69.5/30.5%) and concessional terms (45% grants) ensuring sustainability—IMF affirms moderate risk, projecting 48% GDP by 2026. It catalyzes infra/social multipliers (2% GDP), reserves (4.7 months), and FDI, but low revenues (13.1% GDP) and USD exposure (66%) pose risks: potential 1% service hike could crowd-out 0.5% growth. Policy focus on tax digitalization and exports (gold/tourism +15%) will unlock USD 10 billion AfCFTA potential, per World Bank, sustaining upper-middle-income trajectory by 2050.