Top 10 African Economic Hubs by 2035: Dar es Salaam and Other Cities Leading Urban GDP Growth

Dar es Salaam and Other East African Cities: 2035 Projections

1. Population Growth:
   • Dar es Salaam is projected to become a megacity by 2035, with a population exceeding 10 million. Along with Luanda, it will join the existing megacities like Cairo, Kinshasa, Lagos, and Johannesburg.
   • East Africa, including cities like Dar es Salaam, Nairobi, and Kampala, will experience one of the fastest rates of urban population growth on the continent from 2023 to 2035.
2. Economic Growth:
   • Dar es Salaam, Addis Ababa, Abidjan, and Kampala are expected to be the most dynamic city economies in Africa, with near or above double-digit compound annual growth rates (CAGR) from 2023 to 2035. This rapid economic expansion will allow these cities to rise rapidly in the rankings of Africa's largest city economies.
   • Dar es Salaam’s GDP is projected to experience a CAGR of 9.0% from 2023 to 2035, making it one of the top-performing cities in the continent.
3. Urbanization and Infrastructure:
   • East African cities like Dar es Salaam and Nairobi will continue to expand geographically and demographically. They will also experience improvements in infrastructure, including transport and utilities, which will be crucial to supporting their economic growth.
   • The emergence of city clusters, especially around the Great Lakes region (spanning Kenya and Uganda), will play a significant role in shaping the economic landscape of East Africa.
4. Challenges:
   • Cities in East Africa, including Dar es Salaam, will face significant challenges such as overcrowding, high unemployment, poor public services, and climate change impacts (e.g., rising sea levels and extreme weather conditions).
   • Dar es Salaam, being a coastal city, will be particularly vulnerable to climate change, which could potentially threaten its future growth if not adequately addressed.

Figures and Projections

• Urban Population Growth in East Africa: Expected to rise significantly, contributing to the overall increase in Africa's urban population from about 650 million in 2023 to nearly 1 billion by 2035.
• Economic Contribution: By 2035, Africa's top 100 cities, including Dar es Salaam and Nairobi, will generate more than 60% of the continent's GDP, with the collective GDP of these cities projected to more than triple from $1.4 trillion in 2023 to over $5 trillion in 2035.