The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) aims to create a single continental market for goods and services, facilitating the free movement of businesspersons and investments. It is expected to have diverse impacts on different African countries. Below is an analysis of the impacts on Tanzania and other East African countries, focusing on emissions and GDP changes.

Tanzania

GDP Impact:

• Tanzania is projected to experience economic growth due to the AfCFTA. The increase in GDP reflects the country's enhanced trade activities and economic integration within the African continent.

Emissions Impact:

• Total Emissions: Increase by 1.08%, translating to an absolute change of 0.12 MtCO2.
• Emissions from Production: Increase significantly by 4.19%, with an absolute change of 0.34 MtCO2. This is likely due to increased industrial activities and production to meet the growing trade demands.
• Emissions from Consumption: Decrease by 8.11%, with an absolute reduction of 0.22 MtCO2. This indicates a shift in consumption patterns or improvements in efficiency and sustainability in consumer goods.

Kenya

GDP Impact:

• Kenya, similar to Tanzania, will benefit economically from the AfCFTA. The country is expected to see substantial growth in its GDP due to increased trade and market access.

Emissions Impact:

• Total Emissions: Increase by 2.97%, with an absolute change of 0.61 MtCO2.
• Emissions from Production: Rise by 3.61%, resulting in an absolute increase of 0.56 MtCO2. The industrial and manufacturing sectors likely drive this increase.
• Emissions from Consumption: Increase by 0.97%, with an absolute change of 0.05 MtCO2, indicating slightly higher consumption-driven emissions.

Uganda

GDP Impact:

• Uganda is also set to experience economic growth through the AfCFTA. The country will benefit from improved trade relations and market expansion.

Emissions Impact:

• Total Emissions: Increase by 3.22%, with an absolute change of 0.14 MtCO2.
• Emissions from Production: Increase by 3.47%, translating to an absolute increase of 0.14 MtCO2, indicating a rise in production activities.
• Emissions from Consumption: Decrease slightly by 0.10%, showing a negligible impact in absolute terms, suggesting stable or improved consumption efficiency.

Rwanda

GDP Impact:

• Rwanda's economy is expected to grow under the AfCFTA, benefiting from enhanced trade and economic cooperation with other African nations.

Emissions Impact:

• Total Emissions: Increase by 1.07%, resulting in an absolute change of 0.01 MtCO2.
• Emissions from Production: Increase by 1.09%, with an absolute change of 0.01 MtCO2, indicating a marginal rise in production-related emissions.
• Emissions from Consumption: Increase by 1.03%, reflecting a small absolute change, suggesting a balanced increase in both production and consumption emissions.

Overall Emissions and Economic Growth

The AfCFTA presents significant opportunities for economic growth for Tanzania and other East African countries. However, it also brings challenges in terms of managing increased emissions, particularly from production activities. Policymakers must focus on sustainable practices and technologies to mitigate the environmental impact while capitalizing on economic benefits.

Economic Growth:

• All East African countries under AfCFTA are projected to see positive economic impacts, with notable GDP increases due to expanded trade, reduced tariffs, and improved market access.

Emissions Trends:

• There is a varied impact on emissions among East African countries. While production emissions tend to increase due to higher industrial activities, consumption emissions show mixed trends, with some countries experiencing reductions, likely due to efficiency improvements or shifts in consumption patterns.