Prepared by TERI for research and strategic-information purposes only. It is not investment, legal, tax, medical or financial advice and does not state the position of the Bank of Tanzania, the Ministry of Health, the Medical Stores Department or the Government. Where TICGL/TERI computes a figure it is marked "TICGL calc." Projections and import-substitution figures are illustrations, not forecasts of record. Figures for 2015-2020 and some COMTRADE values come from TICGL working notes and have not been independently re-verified.
00 — OverviewExecutive Summary
Tanzania pays about USD 295 million a year for imported pharmaceutical products. That is large in health terms and modest in macro terms: it is 1.7% of goods imports, about one-twelfth of the petroleum bill and 5% of gold export earnings. The binding constraint is health security and supply reliability, not foreign exchange alone.
The medicine bill is flat in dollars (USD 280-340 million since 2021) but not in shillings: the dollar bill fell from USD 340 million (2022) to USD 295 million (2024) while the shilling weakened from about TZS 2,300 to TZS 2,600 per USD, so the shilling bill stayed in a TZS 680-785 billion band. Exchange-rate moves, not volumes, dominate what the Treasury and the Medical Stores Department (MSD) feel. Over 2021-2025 the country spent more than USD 1.5 billion on pharmaceutical imports.
Three Measures of the "Medicine Bill"
Monthly Bill in 2030 by Scenario
Key findings
- Large in health terms, modest in macro terms. USD 295 million is 1.7% of goods imports (USD 17.8 bn), equal to about 5% of gold export earnings (USD 5.6 bn) and 5% of gross official reserves (USD 5.9 bn).
- India dominates supply. India supplies roughly 54-59% of imports by value; India's own export data record USD 283 million of pharmaceutical exports to Tanzania in 2025. China, Kenya, South Africa and Europe follow.
- Local production is thin. Domestic factories meet an estimated 10-20% of demand. 2030 targets (80% of health products, at least 65% of medicines, at least 50% of hospital medicines) are ambitious and not yet mutually consistent.
- Projections to 2030 span USD 237 to 469 million a year. In the 5.4% mid-case the 2030 bill is USD 405 million (USD 33.7 million a month) and 2025-2030 spending is USD 2.14 billion. Observed data so far track the flat path.
- Import substitution is worth real money, but not all of it is saved. Moving the local share from about 15% to 50% cuts finished-product imports by about USD 122 million a year, of which about USD 73 million is a net foreign-exchange saving once imported active ingredients and packaging are netted off; at 80% the net saving is about USD 135 million.
1. The mid-case cumulative 2025-2030 spend is USD 2,138.5 million, not USD 1,900.0 million; the annual figures were right and only the sum was mis-added. 2. The 5.4% growth rate attributed to 2017-2022 is a market-size growth rate from sector reports; BoT's import series grew only about 0.9% a year over that period (USD 326 million to USD 340 million). TERI keeps 5.4% as a deliberately stressed mid-case but does not present it as the observed trend.
01 — What Tanzania SpendsThe Bill: Annual, Monthly and in Shillings
BoT's September 2026 Monthly Economic Review reports pharmaceutical imports of USD 295.0 million in the year ending August 2026 (provisional), up slightly from USD 292.8 million a year earlier and USD 278.2 million in 2024. Dividing by twelve gives USD 24.6 million a month. "Pharmaceutical products" is the line in BoT's import table (Table A7), valued f.o.b., within "other consumer goods".
Pharmaceutical Imports, 12 Months to August
| Year ending Aug | Annual (USD m) | Monthly avg | Total goods imports | Share of goods imports | YoY change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 329.1 | 27.4 | 12,829.4 | 2.57% | n/a |
| 2023 | 295.2 | 24.6 | 13,869.1 | 2.13% | -10.3% |
| 2024 | 278.2 | 23.2 | 14,141.5 | 1.97% | -5.8% |
| 2025 | 292.8 | 24.4 | 14,321.2 | 2.04% | +5.2% |
| 2026p | 295.0 | 24.6 | 17,771.7 | 1.66% | +0.8% |
Source: Bank of Tanzania, Monthly Economic Review, September 2026, Table A7; TERI calculations. p = provisional.
1.1 Calendar-year view and the shilling
BoT's calendar-year series gives USD 329.9 million (2021), USD 340.4 million (2022), USD 286.2 million (2023) and USD 295.3 million (2024). Adding a provisional USD 269.9 million for the year to September 2025 (as quoted in coverage of the Ministry of Health's local-manufacturing directive), five years of data sum to more than USD 1.5 billion, the figure The Citizen reported from the same BoT review.
Calendar-Year Bill in Dollars and Shillings
Average Exchange Rate
| Year | USD million | Avg TZS per USD | TZS billion (approx.) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 329.9 | 2,297.8 | 758 |
| 2022 | 340.4 | 2,303.0 | 784 |
| 2023 | 286.2 | 2,382.1 | 682 |
| 2024 | 295.3 | 2,597.4 | 767 |
Source: BoT MER Oct 2025 (imports) and Sep 2026 Table A1 (annual average exchange rate); TERI calculations. 2025 average rate: TZS 2,537.6.
The shilling depreciated 6.7% year on year to August 2026, so a flat dollar bill implies a rising shilling bill. Holding the USD 295 million bill constant, every move of 100 shillings per dollar changes the annual shilling cost by about TZS 29.5 billion (TICGL calc.).
Shilling Cost of a Constant USD 295 Million Bill
1.2 Perspective: how big is the bill?
The Medicine Bill Against Other Large Flows
| Item | USD million | Pharma bill as share/multiple |
|---|---|---|
| Pharmaceutical imports | 295.0 | — |
| Total goods imports (f.o.b.) | 17,771.7 | 1.7% of goods imports |
| Petroleum products imports | 3,425.6 | Petroleum is 11.6 times larger |
| Insecticides and similar products imports | 177.8 | Pharma is 1.7 times larger |
| Gold exports | 5,625.0 | Pharma equals 5.2% of gold exports |
| Gross official reserves (Aug 2026) | 5,888.2 | Pharma equals 5.0% of reserves |
Source: BoT MER September 2026 (Tables A7, A6, text); TERI calculations. For the gold-export side of the picture see TICGL's analysis of gold dependence in the related insights below.
02 — TriangulationWhy Published Figures Range From USD 130 Million to USD 1 Billion
Anyone searching for "how much Tanzania spends on medicine imports" will find figures from USD 130 million to more than USD 1 billion. They are not all measuring the same thing. TERI ranks sources as follows: (1) Bank of Tanzania publications, because they are official, current and revised openly; (2) UN COMTRADE and UNCTAD, for cross-checks and partner breakdowns; (3) ministry, MSD and press statements, for policy and context; (4) commercial shipment databases, which cover only part of trade and are not used in totals.
Competing Figures for the Medicine Import Bill
| Source / series | Period | USD m | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| BoT, pharmaceutical products (rolling) | YE Aug 2026 | 295.0 | Official f.o.b. import line; latest provisional |
| BoT, calendar year | 2024 | 295.3 | Revised; was first published at 258.2 |
| BoT, fiscal year | 2024/25 | 285.6 | Year to June 2025, provisional |
| WITS / COMTRADE, HS 30 | 2025 | 385.3 | Customs-based, all of Chapter 30 (TICGL note) |
| WITS / COMTRADE, HS 30 | 2023 | 444.4 | Customs-based (TICGL note) |
| UNCTAD / CEIC, "Medicament" | 2025 | 253.9 | Narrower: finished medicines only (343.7 in 2024) |
| UNCTAD / CEIC, "Medicinal and pharma. product" | 2025 | 129.3 | Narrower class (197.7 in 2024) |
| India-reported exports to Tanzania, HS 30 | 2025 | 282.9 | Partner (mirror) data from the supplier side |
| Media and government, "medicines" | Annual | ~1,000 | Includes medical devices, consumables, other health products |
| Commercial shipment databases, HS 3004 | Apr 2025-Mar 2026 | ~118 | Partial shipment coverage; not used in totals |
Sources: BoT MERs; CEIC/UNCTAD; TradingEconomics (UN COMTRADE); The Citizen; TICGL working notes. YE = year ending. HS 30 covers medicaments (HS 3003 and 3004), vaccines, blood products, wadding and bandages; medical devices and consumables sit mostly in Chapter 90 and are outside these figures.
2.1 TERI's reading
- BoT is the best official anchor. It is current to August 2026, revised in public and consistent with the balance of payments. TERI uses USD 295 million a year (USD 24.6 million a month) as the central estimate; the plausible range is USD 280-400 million a year.
- Customs-based HS 30 totals run higher. India's reported exports to Tanzania alone (USD 283 million) are about 96% of BoT's whole pharmaceutical line. That suggests the BoT line is narrower than Chapter 30 or captures consignments differently (for example duty-exempt and donor-funded imports, vaccines and blood products). This is an interpretation, not a reconciled fact.
- Revisions are material. The 2024 figure was first published at USD 258.2 million (January 2025) and now stands at USD 295.3 million, a 14% upward revision. Early provisional readings of the latest year should be treated as lower bounds.
- The USD 1 billion headline is not comparable. It is roughly 3.4 times the BoT pharmaceutical line. The published sources reviewed do not decompose it, so TERI treats the gap (about USD 700 million) as medical devices, consumables, reagents and other health products plus coverage differences, and recommends that the Ministry of Health and MSD publish the breakdown.
Revision Risk: 2024 as First Published vs Now
Bridge to the "USD 1 Billion" Headline
Aggregator sites that list pharmaceutical products at about USD 650 million (4.3% of imports) were reviewed and rejected: the figure is not corroborated by BoT, COMTRADE or UNCTAD.
03 — The TrendTen-Year Trend: Growth, Plateau, Soft Landing
Longer-run values combine BoT figures for 2021-2026 with indicative earlier estimates from TICGL's working notes. The earlier years rest on older mirror data and approximate ranges and should be read as orders of magnitude, not exact values.
Pharmaceutical Import Bill, 2015-2026
| Year | Annual bill (USD m) | Monthly equivalent | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | ~155-200 | 13-17 | Indicative |
| 2016 | ~168-220 | 14-18 | Indicative |
| 2017 | ~326 | 27 | Indicative |
| 2018-2020 | ~300-450 | 25-38 | Indicative (wide range) |
| 2021 | 329.9 | 27.5 | BoT |
| 2022 | 340.4 | 28.4 | BoT |
| 2023 | 286.2 | 23.9 | BoT |
| 2024 | 295.3 | 24.6 | BoT (revised) |
| 12m to Aug 2026 | 295.0 | 24.6 | BoT, provisional |
Sources: BoT MERs (2021-2026); TICGL working notes (2015-2020). Calendar-year basis except last row.
Monthly Equivalent of the Bill
Year-on-Year Change, 12 Months to August
Rolling 12-Month Readings Reported by BoT
3.1 Three phases
Rapid growth, 2015-2017
- Bill rises from roughly USD 155-200 million to about USD 326 million.
- Demand for malaria, antibiotic, HIV and chronic-disease medicines expands as public health programmes scale up.
Plateau, 2018-2022
- Volatile but broadly USD 300-340 million on BoT data.
- Peaks at USD 340.4 million in 2022.
Soft landing, 2023-2026
- Falls to USD 278 million (12 months to Aug 2024), recovers to about USD 295 million.
- A lower dollar bill does not mean lower need: it can reflect procurement timing, price and product mix, stock drawdowns, or more local and donor-funded supply.
From 2021 to 2024 the BoT calendar series fell at about 3.6% a year; from the indicative 2017 level of USD 326 million to 2022 it grew only about 0.9% a year. Neither supports automatic extrapolation. The data available cannot separate price, volume, stock and local-supply effects: this is the main open research question.
04 — Supply & DemandWhere the Medicines Come From and What Drives the Bill
Tanzania's High Commissioner to India said in July 2025 that 85% of Tanzania's pharmaceuticals and 60% of its medical equipment are imported, with India the main source. MSD says it sources about 80% of medicines and 90% of medical supplies from abroad. The concentration creates a single-supplier exposure: a rupee, shipping or export-policy shock in India is a Tanzanian health-supply shock.
Import Dependence: Official Statements
India's Share of HS 30 Imports, 2025
| Country | Share (value) | Role and evidence |
|---|---|---|
| India | ~54-59% | Largest supplier by far: generics, antibiotics, cardiovascular medicines, ARVs. India-reported exports to Tanzania USD 282.9m in 2025 (medicaments USD 251.0m; vaccines, blood products USD 25.3m). |
| Kenya | ~6% | Regional supplier; about 6.3% in earlier TMDA data |
| China | 2nd-3rd | Raw materials (APIs), consumables and health supplies; also generics |
| South Africa, South Korea | Smaller | Among the main HS 30 sources in WITS data |
| Germany and Europe | Smaller | Specialty and high-value products, some chronic-disease and oncology medicines |
| United States | Small | Niche and specialist products |
Sources: TradingEconomics/UN COMTRADE; CEIC; TMDA data as cited in TICGL working notes; TanzaniaInvest.
What India Reports Selling to Tanzania, 2025
Top Import Classes, Mainland Tanzania 2013/14
4.1 What drives the bill
- Anti-infectives, pain relief and antimalarials. In the most detailed published import study the top class was worth USD 180 million, followed by analgesics (USD 132 million) and antimalarials (USD 97 million): high-volume essential medicines carry much of the import value.
- HIV, TB and chronic disease. ARVs and the growing burden of hypertension, diabetes and heart disease keep demand for long-term therapies rising.
- Oncology and specialty medicines. Few patients but very high unit prices, so they weigh heavily in value even where volumes are small.
- Procurement architecture. MSD annual spending of about TZS 590 billion (an older Citizen estimate), roughly 80% on imports, shows that public procurement alone is a large part of the bill. Private pharmacies and facilities add to it.
- Exchange rate and freight. The shilling and rising freight costs (Middle East disruptions pushed national freight payments up about 29% year on year to USD 1.68 billion) raise the landed cost of every consignment.
05 — Import SubstitutionLocal Production, 2030 Targets and What They Are Worth
Local manufacturers meet an estimated 10-20% of national demand (The Citizen; Daily News), with up to 30% cited in some studies for essential medicines depending on method. TICGL's working notes count about 36 factories producing medicines, devices and health products, of which 11 make medicines. A national strategy for local manufacturing was launched by Ministry of Health directive on 24 November 2025, and the President committed to guaranteed MSD offtake for local producers when opening the 13th Parliament on 14 November 2025.
Local Share of Demand: Today, Targets and a Peer
| Statement on 2030 local-production targets | Source |
|---|---|
| 80% local production of health products by 2030 | Daily News; TMDA/MoH-linked reporting |
| At least 65% of medicines consumed made locally by 2030; 65% of medical equipment next year | Daily News (Deputy PS, Medicines) |
| At least 50% of hospital medicines and equipment made locally | The Citizen, Jan 2026 investment forum |
| Reduce dependence on imported medicines and equipment by 85% by 2030 | Daily News |
| Cut imports from 80% to 50% by 2030 (earlier Chief Pharmacist target) | The Citizen (older statement) |
Sources as listed; TERI compilation. Targets are not defined on a common basis (value vs volume, medicines vs all health products). TERI recommends one definition: share of national medicine demand by value, essential medicines list, tracked annually.
5.1 Delivery pipeline
- More than 50 investors have reportedly expressed interest in pharmaceutical manufacturing, and the Pharmaceutical Investment Acceleration Taskforce (PIAT) was created to remove approval bottlenecks.
- The Mloganzila Pharmaceutical Manufacturing Hub is hosting new plants (including products for HIV prevention, diabetes and hepatitis); 1,000 acres in Bagamoyo have been secured through TISEZA for a larger future development.
- Peers show the scale of the task: Egypt reports meeting about 91% of its market domestically after decades of build-up; Algeria has nearly 230 pharmaceutical factories.
Going from about 15% to 80% in four years would be an exceptional industrial achievement. TERI's scenarios therefore treat the targets as upside cases, not baselines.
5.2 What local production could change
Holding the 2024 market constant (about USD 347 million at import prices, assuming a 15% local share today) TERI asks what the import bill would be at higher local shares. It assumes 40% of the value of local output is itself imported (active ingredients, excipients, packaging), so only 60% of displaced imports is a net foreign-exchange saving. These two assumptions are TERI's and should be replaced with factory-level data as it becomes available.
Implied Import Bill and Savings at Different Local Shares
| Local share of demand | Implied import bill | Gross import saving | Net FX saving (60%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15% (today) | 295.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 30% | 243.2 | 52.1 | 31.3 |
| 50% | 173.7 | 121.6 | 73.0 |
| 65% | 121.6 | 173.7 | 104.2 |
| 80% (target) | 69.5 | 225.8 | 135.5 |
Source: TERI illustration. Assumes constant market value (USD 347.4m), local share measured by value, and 40% import content of local output. USD millions.
How Much of the Saving Leaks Back Out as Imported Inputs?
First, the prize is real: a 50% local share is worth roughly USD 70 million of net foreign exchange a year and the 80% target more than USD 130 million. Second, it is smaller than the headline import bill suggests, because local manufacturing still depends on imported active ingredients. A pharmaceutical API and packaging strategy must sit alongside factory incentives.
06 — OutlookThe Medicine Import Bill to 2030: Four Scenarios
From the 2024 base of USD 295.3 million, TERI projects four paths: Low (-3.6% a year, the 2021-2024 trend), Flat (0%), Mid (+5.4% a year) and High (+8% a year, driven by chronic-disease growth and global price increases). The Flat path is included because observed data to August 2026 (USD 295.0 million) track it almost exactly. Formula: Bill(t) = 295.3 × (1+g)^(t-2024).
Scenario Paths for the Medicine Import Bill, 2024-2030
| USD million | Low (-3.6%) | Flat (0%) | Mid (+5.4%) | High (+8%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 284.7 | 295.3 | 311.2 | 318.9 |
| 2026 | 274.4 | 295.3 | 328.1 | 344.4 |
| 2027 | 264.5 | 295.3 | 345.8 | 372.0 |
| 2028 | 255.0 | 295.3 | 364.4 | 401.8 |
| 2029 | 245.8 | 295.3 | 384.1 | 433.9 |
| 2030 | 237.0 | 295.3 | 404.9 | 468.6 |
| Monthly in 2030 | 19.8 | 24.6 | 33.7 | 39.1 |
| Change 2024-2030 | -19.7% | 0% | +37.1% | +58.7% |
| Cumulative 2025-2030 | 1,561.4 | 1,771.8 | 2,138.5 | 2,339.6 |
Source: TERI calculations on BoT 2024 base (USD 295.3m). Scenarios are illustrative, not forecasts of record.
Cumulative Spend, 2025-2030
2030 Bill in Shillings
Even in the low case Tanzania spends over USD 1.5 billion on medicine imports in the next six years; in the mid case, over USD 2.1 billion. The 2030 bill ranges from USD 237 million (about USD 20 million a month) to USD 469 million (about USD 39 million a month). Observed data so far sit closer to the low-to-flat scenarios than to the high one. These are dollar figures at a constant exchange rate; any further shilling depreciation would raise the shilling bill on top.
07 — Risks & PolicyWhat Could Push the Bill Up or Down, and What To Do
| Upward pressures | Downward pressures |
|---|---|
| Population growth and rising chronic-disease burden (diabetes, hypertension, cancer) | Local production rising from 10-20% towards 30% or more |
| Higher global drug and raw-material prices; freight costs from Middle East disruption | MSD procurement preference and multi-year contracts for local producers |
| Shilling depreciation (6.7% year on year to August 2026) raises the TZS bill | Lower duties on active ingredients and inputs for local manufacturers |
| Supplier concentration: dependence on India and China exposes costs to their policies and currencies | GMP-certified plants winning durable market share and regional exports |
| Upward revisions to provisional data (2024 was revised up 14%) | Pooled procurement and price negotiation in the EAC and SADC |
Source: TERI synthesis.
Recommendations
Immediate (next 12 months)
- One authoritative dataset. BoT, TRA, MSD and TMDA agree a reconciled series for pharmaceuticals, devices and consumables, with a public bridge to the "USD 1 billion" headline.
- One local-production target. Replace the 50/65/80/85% statements with one definition and an annual scorecard.
- Predictable demand. Set a minimum local share in MSD and public-hospital procurement for essential medicines, reserved by value.
- Hedge the shilling. MSD forward purchasing and diversified supplier currencies on a bill of about TZS 780 billion.
Medium term (1-3 years)
- Finance manufacturers. Low-cost, long-tenor credit for equipment, GMP upgrades and working capital.
- Cut input costs. Reduce duties and VAT friction on active ingredients and packaging.
- Build the cluster. Complete Mloganzila and Bagamoyo with shared utilities, QC laboratories and testing services.
- Diversify suppliers. Second-source qualification for critical medicines (Kenya, Egypt, Algeria, South Africa).
Longer term (to 2030)
- Start where the volumes are. Antimalarials, antibiotics, ARVs and chronic-disease generics.
- Train the workforce. Pharmacy, biotechnology and quality-control graduates with universities.
- 3-5 year offtake agreements with qualified local manufacturers so investors can finance plants against contracted demand.
- Track five indicators: local share by value; import bill in USD and TZS; top-supplier share; number of WHO-prequalified or GMP-certified local plants; API import share.
"The question is not only how much Tanzania pays for medicines, but how much of that bill is set by decisions in Mumbai and the exchange rate rather than by decisions in Dodoma and Dar es Salaam."
— TICGL / Tanzania Economic Research Institute (TERI)
On the best official data Tanzania spends about USD 295 million a year (USD 24.6 million a month, roughly TZS 65 billion) importing pharmaceutical products, with customs-based measures as high as USD 385-445 million and the all-in health products bill near USD 1 billion. If current trends hold, Tanzania will spend between USD 1.6 and 2.3 billion on pharmaceutical imports between 2025 and 2030. Achieving the 2030 local-production targets would retain USD 70-135 million a year in net foreign exchange, but it requires more than factories: predictable public demand, affordable inputs, quality certification, skilled people and credible data to track progress.
08 — What TICGL DoesFrom Import Data to Bankable Pharmaceutical Projects
A USD 295 million import bill, a 10-20% local share and 2030 targets that range from 50% to 85% create a concrete investment question: which pharmaceutical projects are bankable, in which segments and with which entry route? TICGL (Tanzania Investment and Consultant Group Ltd), with its research arm TERI, turns the numbers in this report into decision-grade work in three technical service lines.
Feasibility Studies
- Pre-feasibility and full feasibility for pharmaceutical plants (oral solids, liquids, injectables) and cluster infrastructure, including PPP structuring.
- Financial models with NPV, IRR and DSCR, FX and input-cost escalation, and a factory-level import-content test replacing the 40% assumption used here.
- Offtake and demand-risk analysis against MSD and public-hospital procurement.
- GMP, regulatory and WHO-prequalification cost and timeline assessment; sensitivity on exchange rate, API prices and payment delays.
Market Entry Advisory
- Segment screening by therapeutic class (antimalarials, antibiotics, ARVs, chronic disease) against import value and substitution potential.
- Entry-mode choice: import and distribution, contract manufacturing, joint venture or own plant.
- Incentives and site mapping (Mloganzila, Bagamoyo/TISEZA), registration pathway and tender-readiness.
- Partner, API-supplier and second-source identification beyond India.
Market Research
- Demand sizing and price benchmarking by product class, reconciling BoT, customs and procurement data.
- Scenario models of the import bill and local share, updated with each Bank of Tanzania release.
- Supplier-concentration and supply-risk studies; stakeholder and willingness-to-pay surveys.
- Policy briefs and SEO-ready research publications for institutional clients.
The report shows the opportunity is real but narrower than the headline: of a USD 225.8 million gross saving at an 80% local share, only USD 135.5 million is a net foreign-exchange gain on current assumptions. Feasibility models that rely on the gross figure overstate the prize; a project-level import-content and offtake analysis is the low-cost way to avoid it.
Talk to TICGL/TERI
Request a feasibility, market-entry or market-research scoping call for a pharmaceutical or health-supply project, or a fuller briefing on this report.
What We Do → TICGL Markets → TERI Research → ✉️ economist@ticgl.com09 — SourcesMethod & Source Note
Bank of Tanzania series. Table A7 in each Monthly Economic Review (f.o.b., USD million). Year-ending series: September 2026 MER (YE Aug), October 2025 MER (calendar 2021-2024 and YE Sep 2025p), July 2025 MER (fiscal years to June), January 2025 MER (first 2024p estimate of 258.2). Additional rolling readings: YE Jan 2026 = 298.9; YE Feb 2026 = 305.5. Exchange rates. Annual average TZS/USD from BoT Table A1 (2021: 2,297.8; 2022: 2,303.0; 2023: 2,382.1; 2024: 2,597.4; 2025: 2,537.6); August 2026 average 2,657.01. Import substitution. Market value M = 295.3 / (1 - 0.15) = USD 347.4 million; imports at local share s = M × (1 - s); net FX saving = (295.3 - imports) × 0.6. Not independently re-verified: 2015-2020 indicative values; WITS/COMTRADE 2023 and 2025 totals and India's USD 228.5 million; HS 3004 shipment data (about USD 118 million); the count of 36 factories and 11 medicine manufacturers. Limitations. Provisional data are subject to revision; BoT and HS 30 coverage differ; the split between public and private procurement, and between volume and price effects, is not available in the sources reviewed.
- Bank of Tanzania, Monthly Economic Review, September 2026 (Tables A1, A6, A7; Sections 2.4, 2.7); October 2025; July 2025; January 2025; January, February and March 2026 issues.
- CEIC / UNCTAD, Tanzania imports of medicament and medicinal and pharmaceutical products (2024, 2025); TradingEconomics / UN COMTRADE, India exports of pharmaceutical products to Tanzania, 2025.
- The Citizen (local drug production strategy; investor forum Jan 2026; MSD and manufacturers); TanzaniaInvest (Nov 2025 directive; Tanzania-India Business Forum 2025); Daily News (local manufacturing strategy, Mloganzila hub, 2030 targets).
- PLOS ONE (2019), Pharmaceuticals imports in Tanzania: overview of private sector imports (2013/14 data); TICGL working notes (Kiswahili research report on medicine import costs and 2025-2030 scenario note, Oct 2026).
10 — Quick AnswersFrequently Asked Questions
How much does Tanzania spend on imported medicines each year?
About USD 295 million in the 12 months to August 2026 (provisional), or USD 24.6 million a month (roughly TZS 784 billion a year, TZS 65 billion a month). Customs-based HS 30 data run higher: USD 385 million in 2025.
Is the medicine import bill USD 1 billion?
Not for medicines alone. The roughly USD 1 billion (TZS 2.6 trillion) headline covers medicines plus medical devices, consumables and other health products; pharmaceuticals are about 30% of it.
Which country supplies most of Tanzania's medicines?
India, with roughly 54-59% of imports by value (USD 282.9 million reported by India for 2025). China, Kenya, South Africa and Europe follow.
How much demand is met by local factories?
An estimated 10-20%, with up to 30% for essential medicines in some studies. Targets for 2030 range from 50% of hospital medicines to 80% of health products and are not defined on a common basis.
What will the bill be in 2030?
Between USD 237 million (low) and USD 469 million (high); the mid case is USD 405 million (USD 33.7 million a month). Cumulative 2025-2030 spending ranges from USD 1.56 to USD 2.34 billion.
How much foreign exchange would local production save?
At a 50% local share, about USD 73 million a year net; at 80%, about USD 135 million, after netting imported active ingredients and packaging (TERI assumption: 40% import content).
Muhtasari kwa Kiswahili
Bili ya Uagizaji wa Dawa Tanzania. Kwa mujibu wa Benki Kuu ya Tanzania (BoT), Tanzania ilitumia takriban dola milioni 295 za Marekani kuagiza bidhaa za dawa kutoka nje katika miezi 12 hadi Agosti 2026 (takwimu za awali). Hii ni takriban dola milioni 24.6 kwa mwezi, au karibu shilingi bilioni 784 kwa mwaka (shilingi bilioni 65 kwa mwezi) kwa kiwango cha wastani cha TZS 2,657 kwa dola.
Kwa nini takwimu zinatofautiana: Takwimu za forodha (HS 30) zinaonyesha hadi dola milioni 385 (2025) na milioni 444 (2023). Kiasi cha “dola bilioni 1” kinachotajwa na serikali na vyombo vya habari kinahusu dawa pamoja na vifaa tiba, bidhaa za matumizi na bidhaa nyingine za afya; dawa pekee ni takriban asilimia 30. Kati ya mwaka 2021 na 2025 nchi ilitumia zaidi ya dola bilioni 1.5.
Imetulia kwa dola, haijatulia kwa shilingi: Bili ilishuka kutoka dola milioni 340 (2022) hadi milioni 295 (2024), lakini shilingi ilidhoofika kutoka takriban TZS 2,300 hadi TZS 2,600 kwa dola, hivyo bili ya shilingi ilibaki kati ya TZS bilioni 680 na 785. Kushuka kwa thamani ya shilingi kwa asilimia 6.7 kwa mwaka kunaongeza gharama bila kuongeza kiasi cha dawa.
Wauzaji: India ndiyo muuzaji mkuu kwa mbali (takriban asilimia 54-59 ya thamani); kisha China, Kenya, Afrika Kusini na Ulaya. Tegemeo hili kwa nchi moja ni hatari ya usalama wa upatikanaji wa dawa.
Uzalishaji wa ndani: Viwanda vya ndani vinakidhi asilimia 10-20 tu ya mahitaji. Malengo ya 2030 ni pamoja na asilimia 65 ya dawa na asilimia 80 ya bidhaa za afya kuzalishwa nchini, lakini hayana ufafanuzi mmoja. Kupandisha sehemu ya ndani kutoka asilimia 15 hadi 50 kungeokoa takriban dola milioni 73 kwa mwaka (fedha za kigeni halisi), na hadi asilimia 80 takriban dola milioni 135, baada ya kuondoa malighafi na vifungashio vinavyoagizwa.
Makadirio hadi 2030: Bili ya mwaka 2030 inaweza kuwa kati ya dola milioni 237 (kiwango cha chini) na milioni 469 (kiwango cha juu); hali ya kati ni dola milioni 405 (milioni 33.7 kwa mwezi). Matumizi ya jumla 2025-2030 ni dola bilioni 1.56 hadi 2.34. Takwimu halisi hadi sasa zinakaribia njia ya “tulivu”.
Mapendekezo: (1) Kuwa na takwimu moja rasmi ya uagizaji wa dawa; (2) lengo moja la uzalishaji wa ndani lenye ufafanuzi wazi; (3) uhakika wa soko kwa wazalishaji wa ndani kupitia MSD na mikataba ya miaka 3-5; (4) kupunguza kodi za malighafi (APIs) na vifungashio; (5) mikopo nafuu ya muda mrefu kwa viwanda; (6) kupanua wauzaji zaidi ya India; (7) kudhibiti hatari ya sarafu. TICGL/TERI hutoa upembuzi yakinifu (feasibility), ushauri wa kuingia sokoni na utafiti wa soko kwa miradi ya dawa.
Hitimisho: Bili ya dawa ni kubwa kwa afya ya umma lakini ndogo kwa uchumi mpana (asilimia 1.7 ya uagizaji wa bidhaa). Changamoto kuu ni usalama wa upatikanaji wa dawa, tegemeo kwa muuzaji mmoja na thamani ya shilingi, siyo fedha za kigeni peke yake.
- Bili ya mwaka: dola milioni 295.0 · kwa mwezi: milioni 24.6 · TZS bilioni 784
- Sehemu ya India: asilimia 54-59 · uzalishaji wa ndani: asilimia 10-20
- Makadirio 2030: dola milioni 237 hadi 469 kwa mwaka
- Akiba halisi ya fedha za kigeni (asilimia 50 / 80 ya soko la ndani): dola milioni 73 / 135
Chanzo: Benki Kuu ya Tanzania, Mapitio ya Kila Mwezi ya Uchumi, Septemba 2026; UN COMTRADE/UNCTAD; TERI/TICGL, Oktoba 2026. Kwa maelezo zaidi: economist@ticgl.com.