Prepared by TERI for research and strategic-information purposes only. It is not investment, legal, tax or financial advice and does not state the position of the Bank of Tanzania. Foreign exchange turnover is quoted in US dollars, as published. In the retail tables "purchases" are read as banks buying foreign currency from customers (supply) and "sales" as banks selling it to customers (demand); this is the standard interpretation but the weekly report does not define the terms. Note: a negative "change" in the Bank's tables means the foreign currency became cheaper in shillings, i.e. the shilling strengthened.
00 — OverviewExecutive Summary
The Bank of Tanzania describes the shilling as stable in both weeks, appreciating slightly. The numbers support that, with three qualifications that matter for anyone pricing imports, exports or foreign-currency debt.
The shilling is gaining ground even as the interbank market thins and retail customers were net buyers of dollars in the latest week (USD 298.87 million sold against USD 234.93 million bought). That combination points to supply arriving from channels the weekly reports do not show, or to firming driven by sentiment and thin trading rather than depth. Either way the move is gentle, but it is the kind of rate a few large orders could reverse.
- Rate: TZS 2,645.45 (25 Sep) → 2,641.42 (2 Oct) → 2,631.36 (9 Oct). Versus the Bank's monthly review, the rate is 0.3% firmer than end-August (2,639.9) but still 7.5% weaker than end-December 2025 (2,447.5), TICGL calc.
- Euro effect: the euro lost about 1.6% against the dollar in the same two weeks (implied from cross rates), so shilling gains against Europe were larger than against the US.
- Depth: interbank turnover is only 4% of weekly retail turnover; the headline rate is set in a small market.
- Retail: trade alone was USD 174.70 million (33% of the week), with oil and energy and mining next.
01 — Exchange RatesOfficial Indicative Mean Rates
The shilling closed at TZS 2,641.42 per USD on 2 October, down 0.15% on the week, and at TZS 2,631.36 on 9 October, down a further 0.38%. In both weeks the Bank describes the shilling as stable, appreciating slightly.
The Shilling's Path: Month-Ends to Weekly Closes
| TZS per unit | 25-Sep-26 | 2-Oct-26 | 9-Oct-26 | Wk 1 % | Wk 2 % | 2-wk %* |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US dollar | 2,645.45 | 2,641.42 | 2,631.36 | -0.15 | -0.38 | -0.53 |
| Euro | 3,008.14 | 2,981.63 | 2,944.49 | -0.88 | -1.25 | -2.12 |
| British pound | 3,498.87 | 3,493.01 | 3,476.29 | -0.17 | -0.48 | -0.65 |
| Chinese yuan | 394.06 | 393.97 | 392.59 | -0.02 | -0.35 | -0.37 |
| Indian rupee | 27.57 | 27.42 | 27.19 | -0.53 | -0.86 | -1.38 |
| Japanese yen | 16.66 | 16.72 | 16.63 | +0.31 | -0.49 | -0.18 |
| Kenyan shilling | 20.42 | 20.35 | 20.25 | -0.32 | -0.52 | -0.84 |
| Rwandan franc | 1.79 | 1.79 | 1.78 | -0.19 | -0.40 | -0.59 |
| Ugandan shilling | 0.67 | 0.66 | 0.64 | -1.28 | -3.18 | -4.4 |
Source: Bank of Tanzania, Table 1 of each weekly report. *Two-week change compounds the two published weekly changes (TICGL calc.). Rwandan franc and Ugandan shilling are quoted to two decimals, so small moves look large.
Weekly Change vs the Shilling
Implied Euro per Dollar
1.1 What the cross rates reveal
| Implied pair (TICGL calc.) | 25-Sep | 2-Oct | 9-Oct | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD per EUR | 1.137 | 1.129 | 1.119 | Euro weaker by ~1.6% |
| USD per GBP | 1.323 | 1.322 | 1.321 | Sterling steady |
| CNY per USD | 6.713 | 6.705 | 6.703 | Yuan steady |
| JPY per USD | 158.8 | 158.0 | 158.2 | Yen steady |
| KES per USD | 129.6 | 129.8 | 129.9 | Kenya shilling steady |
- A dollar story against the euro, a shilling story against the rest. Sterling, yuan, yen and the Kenyan shilling hardly moved against the dollar, yet all became cheaper in TZS (by 0.2% to 0.8%), which is simply the shilling's 0.5% gain against the dollar passing through. Only the euro moved independently.
- Regional competitiveness: the shilling gained 0.84% on the Kenyan shilling and about 4.4% on the Ugandan shilling (rounding-affected). A firmer TZS makes Tanzanian exports pricier for EAC buyers.
02 — Interbank MarketIFEM: Quiet and Getting Quieter
Interbank Foreign Exchange Market (IFEM) transactions were USD 22.30 million in the week to 9 October, down from USD 29.90 million and USD 44.80 million in the two preceding weeks. That is a 25.4% fall week on week and a 50.2% fall in two weeks.
Daily IFEM Turnover, Three Weeks
Monthly IFEM Turnover, January 2024 to October 2026
| Day | Wk to 25 Sep | Wk to 2 Oct | Wk to 9 Oct |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monday | 0.50 | 12.50 | 1.10 |
| Tuesday | 3.90 | 3.50 | 3.80 |
| Wednesday | 9.50 | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| Thursday | 14.30 | 2.30 | 8.30 |
| Friday | 16.60 | 6.60 | 5.10 |
| Week total (USD m) | 44.80 | 29.90 | 22.30 |
Source: Bank of Tanzania, Chart 1–3 data labels in the weekly reports. Weekly totals tie to the totals the Bank states.
2.1 How to read thin volumes
- Low against the 2026 run-rate. The 2026 monthly average to September is about USD 152 million (about USD 35 million a week, TICGL calc.). The last two weeks are 15% and 36% below that pace.
- Trend context. IFEM turnover peaked at USD 227.1 million in July 2026 and has fallen to USD 190.3 million (August) and USD 151.65 million (September).
- Price discovery risk. When a few USD million a day sets the reference rate, a single large corporate or public-sector order can shift it. The firming of the last two weeks happened on falling volumes, not rising ones.
- Interbank vs retail. IFEM was only 4.2% of retail turnover this week (5.6% last week, 8.3% the week before). Most currency changes hands between banks and customers, not between banks.
03 — Retail FXCommercial Banks' Retail Foreign Exchange
Retail FX transactions were USD 533.81 million in the week to 9 October, marginally below USD 536.19 million the week before and USD 542.93 million before that. Trade (USD 174.70 million), oil and energy (USD 74.18 million) and mining (USD 59.31 million) made up USD 308.19 million, 58% of the total. Over the past month daily retail turnover averaged USD 125.52 million (USD 129.87 million a week earlier).
Weekly Purchases vs Sales by Banks
Monthly Retail FX Turnover
Turnover by Sector, Three Weeks
| Sector (USD m) | Wk 25 Sep | Wk 2 Oct | Wk 9 Oct | 9 Oct purchases | 9 Oct sales |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trade | 130.37 | 130.98 | 174.70 | 44.30 | 130.40 |
| Oil & Energy | 74.14 | 78.32 | 74.18 | 7.81 | 66.37 |
| Mining | 62.67 | 70.69 | 59.31 | 50.82 | 8.49 |
| Agriculture | 57.96 | 39.12 | 46.62 | 38.64 | 7.98 |
| Individual retail customers | 47.50 | 38.57 | 41.07 | 20.31 | 20.76 |
| Manufacturing | 53.31 | 46.87 | 35.69 | 4.79 | 30.90 |
| Transport & Communication | 30.97 | 39.49 | 34.94 | 24.08 | 10.87 |
| Tourism | 29.44 | 28.53 | 24.12 | 20.90 | 3.22 |
| Constructions (machines & equipment) | 31.10 | 24.62 | 21.14 | 10.41 | 10.73 |
| Social services | 12.81 | 25.50 | 10.20 | 6.08 | 4.12 |
| NGOs | 9.66 | 10.87 | 7.13 | 6.79 | 0.34 |
| Breweries / Beverages | 3.00 | 2.62 | 4.70 | 0.00 | 4.70 |
| Total | 542.93 | 536.19 | 533.81 | 234.93 | 298.87 |
Source: Bank of Tanzania, Table 2 of the weekly reports. Table sorted by latest week's turnover; some rows differ by 0.01 from the Bank's rounded totals.
3.1 Who supplies and who demands dollars
Net Demand for Foreign Currency by Sector
- Net demand: trade (+USD 86.10 million), oil and energy (+58.56) and manufacturing (+26.11) are the main buyers, consistent with import financing for goods, fuel and inputs.
- Net supply: mining (-42.33), agriculture (-30.66), tourism (-17.68), transport and communication (-13.21) and NGOs (-6.45) bring foreign currency in.
- The balance flipped. Net demand was +USD 5.29 million in the week to 25 Sep, turned to net supply of -36.50 million the week to 2 Oct, and swung to net demand of +63.95 million in the latest week. Trade net demand has nearly quadrupled in three weeks (22.25 → 86.10).
In the latest week customers bought USD 63.95 million more than they sold, yet the shilling gained 0.38%. Retail flows alone would normally push the rate the other way. The weekly report does not explain it; possible reasons (interbank or official supply, offshore flows, or the timing of conversions) cannot be tested with the published data. TICGL/TERI treats it as a signal to watch rather than a conclusion.
04 — Drivers & OutlookWhat Is Behind the Move, and What to Watch
The data are consistent with a seasonal and policy-supported firming, but the evidence is thin. TICGL/TERI sets out the likely drivers, the risks and what each business group should do.
| Possible driver | Direction for TZS | What the weekly data show |
|---|---|---|
| Tight monetary stance (CBR 6.25%; weekly 7-day WAR 6.47–6.52%) | Firmer | Interbank rate 22–27 bps above the CBR, within the 4.75–7.75% corridor |
| Export and gold inflows (the Bank's September review cites gold and traditional crops) | Firmer | Mining and agriculture are net suppliers of dollars each week |
| Import and fuel demand | Weaker | Trade, oil and manufacturing net demand USD 170.8 million in latest week (TICGL calc.) |
| Global dollar strength vs euro | Neutral for USD, firmer vs EUR | Euro down ~1.6% vs USD; TZS up 2.1% vs EUR |
| Thin interbank volumes | Volatility risk | IFEM $22.3M, half of three weeks ago |
Net Demand in the Latest Week, Main Buyers and Sellers
4.1 Why this matters beyond the exchange rate
- Inflation. The Bank's September review shows core inflation rising to 4.1% with imported fuel and transport costs the main upside risk. A firmer shilling helps, but it is too small (0.5%) to offset an oil shock.
- Debt. About 18% of external debt is in euro and 65% in dollars. A 2.1% fall in euro/TZS cuts the shilling value of euro debt by about TZS 0.4 trillion and a 0.5% fall in dollar/TZS about TZS 0.3 trillion (based on end-August composition, TICGL calc.). Gains of this size reverse quickly if the rate turns.
- Exporters. Tourism, agriculture and mining earn dollars and are net suppliers; a firmer shilling squeezes their local-currency margins, so they are the group most hurt by appreciation.
Importers and manufacturers
- Use the firmer rate to place forward cover or pre-pay inputs at TZS 2,631 rather than wait.
- Stagger large orders across days to avoid adding to thin interbank volumes.
- Re-price landed-cost models for euro-invoiced goods: they are 2% cheaper than two weeks ago.
Exporters, tourism and mining
- Review forward-sale options before appreciation erodes margins.
- Check contract currency clauses for Kenya and Uganda buyers, where the shilling gained 0.8% and about 4%.
- Hold USD revenue in line with known TZS obligations rather than converting all at once.
(1) Whether interbank turnover recovers above about USD 35 million a week, which would confirm the firming is supported by genuine flows. (2) Whether retail net demand stays above USD 60 million. (3) The Bank of Tanzania's weekly 7-day WAR relative to the 6.25% CBR. (4) The next Bank monthly review for October, which will show whether import and fuel costs are still pushing the current account deficit wider.
"Appreciation on falling volume is a whisper, not a trend. The shilling has earned a breather, but a market this thin can change direction on a handful of orders."
— TICGL / Tanzania Economic Research Institute (TERI)
05 — What TICGL DoesTurning Currency Data into Decisions
Exchange-rate assumptions sit inside every feasibility study, market-entry plan and import-pricing decision. TICGL (Tanzania Investment and Consultant Group Ltd), with its research arm TERI, combines original economic research with practical advisory outputs across Tanzania and East Africa. Three technical service lines use the analysis in this report directly.
Feasibility Studies
- Pre-feasibility and full feasibility studies for PPP and private projects.
- Financial models with explicit FX paths, currency-split capex and revenue, NPV, IRR and DSCR.
- Sensitivity ranges for TZS per USD and per EUR, with interest-rate and inflation linkages.
- Risk-allocation and tariff-indexation review.
Market Entry Advisory
- Sector screening and landed-cost modelling for importers and exporters.
- Pricing and margin strategy under appreciation and depreciation cases.
- Entry-mode choice, incentives, and currency-matched financing structure.
- Regional (EAC) competitiveness analysis against KES, UGX and RWF.
Market Research
- Weekly, monthly and quarterly financial-market monitoring from official sources.
- Demand sizing and sector outlooks with FX-sensitive scenarios.
- Primary surveys and stakeholder interviews with importers, exporters and banks.
- Policy briefs, training materials and SEO-ready publications.
A 0.5% move in the shilling is small. A 7.5% move since December is not. Models built on a December rate understate import costs, and models built on the July peak overstate them. A refreshed FX layer takes little time and removes avoidable mispricing.
Talk to TICGL/TERI
Request a feasibility, market-entry or market-research scoping call, or a fuller briefing on this series.
What We Do → TICGL Markets → TERI Research → ✉️ economist@ticgl.com06 — SourcesMethod & Source Note
Source: Bank of Tanzania, Domestic Financial Markets Weekly Reports for 28 September–2 October 2026 and 5–9 October 2026 (Section 1: Tables 1–2, Charts 1–5), plus the Bank's Monthly Economic Review, September 2026 (Table A10 month-end exchange rates; Table 2.6.4 currency composition). Implied cross rates (USD per EUR, GBP, CNY, JPY, KES), two-week compounded changes, net demand by sector (banks' sales minus purchases), IFEM-to-retail ratios and debt-valuation effects are TICGL/TERI computations. Monthly turnover series are read from published chart labels. Retail FX turnover and IFEM turnover are in US dollars as published. This is Part 1 of a three-part series; Part 2 covers money market and liquidity, Part 3 covers government securities.
07 — Quick AnswersFrequently Asked Questions
What is the shilling exchange rate against the US dollar in October 2026?
TZS 2,631.36 per USD on 9 October, down 0.38% on the week and 0.53% below the 25 September close of TZS 2,645.45, so the shilling firmed.
How active is the interbank foreign exchange market?
Weekly IFEM turnover fell to USD 22.30 million from USD 29.90 million and USD 44.80 million in the two earlier weeks, a 50% fall.
How large is retail foreign exchange turnover?
USD 533.81 million in the week to 9 October, about 24 times interbank turnover, led by trade (USD 174.70 million), oil and energy (USD 74.18 million) and mining (USD 59.31 million).
Why did the shilling firm more against the euro?
It gained 2.1% on the euro against 0.5% on the dollar, which implies the euro weakened about 1.6% against the dollar (TICGL calc.).
Which sectors demand and supply foreign currency?
Trade, oil and energy and manufacturing are net buyers; mining, agriculture, tourism and NGOs are net suppliers (week to 9 October).
Muhtasari kwa Kiswahili
Soko la Fedha za Kigeni la Tanzania: Shilingi Inaimarika kwa Kiasi Kidogo. Kwa mujibu wa ripoti mbili za wiki za Benki Kuu ya Tanzania (28 Sep – 9 Okt 2026), shilingi ilifunga wiki kwa TZS 2,631.36 kwa dola ya Marekani, ikiimarika kwa asilimia 0.38 kwa wiki na asilimia 0.53 ndani ya wiki mbili (kutoka TZS 2,645.45 tarehe 25 Septemba).
Sarafu nyingine: Shilingi iliimarika kwa asilimia 2.12 dhidi ya euro (TZS 3,008.14 hadi 2,944.49), asilimia 0.65 dhidi ya pauni, na asilimia 0.84 dhidi ya shilingi ya Kenya. Euro ilidhoofika kwa takriban asilimia 1.6 dhidi ya dola, hesabu ya TICGL.
Soko la fedha kati ya benki (IFEM): Miamala ilishuka hadi USD milioni 22.30 kutoka milioni 29.90 na milioni 44.80 wiki mbili zilizopita, yaani kushuka kwa asilimia 50. Hii inamaanisha shilingi inaimarika kwa kiasi kidogo cha biashara.
Soko la rejareja: Miamala ilikuwa USD milioni 533.81 wiki iliyopita, ikiongozwa na biashara (USD milioni 174.70), mafuta na nishati (74.18) na madini (59.31). Wanunuzi wakuu wa dola ni biashara, mafuta na viwanda; wauzaji wakuu ni madini, kilimo na utalii.
Kitendawili: Wiki ya mwisho wateja walinunua dola zaidi ya walizouza kwa USD milioni 63.95, lakini shilingi iliimarika. Takwimu za wiki hazielezi sababu, kwa hiyo ni ishara ya kufuatilia.
Ushauri: Waagizaji wafikirie kufunga bei sasa; wauzaji nje wapitie hatari ya margin. TICGL/TERI hutoa upembuzi yakinifu (feasibility), ushauri wa kuingia sokoni na utafiti wa soko wenye mawazo ya viwango vya ubadilishaji.
Hitimisho: Kuimarika kwa shilingi ni kwa kiasi kidogo na kwenye soko lenye kina kidogo. Kinachoamua mwelekeo ujao ni kama kiasi cha biashara kitaongezeka na kama mahitaji ya dola ya wateja yataendelea.
- Kiwango cha 9 Okt: TZS 2,631.36 kwa USD (-0.53% katika wiki mbili)
- IFEM wiki: USD milioni 22.3 (-50% katika wiki mbili)
- Rejareja wiki: USD milioni 533.8
- Mahitaji halisi ya dola wiki ya mwisho: USD milioni 63.9
Chanzo: Benki Kuu ya Tanzania, Domestic Financial Markets Weekly Reports (28 Sep – 9 Okt 2026). Kwa maelezo zaidi: economist@ticgl.com.