Prepared by TERI for research and strategic-information purposes only; it is not investment, legal, tax or financial advice. Figures are from the Bank of Tanzania, Tanzania Revenue Authority and banks; 2026 data are provisional. Services balances by category, shares and growth rates marked "TERI calculation" are derived from published figures. Rounding differences of USD 0.1 million may occur.
01 — OverviewExecutive Summary
External-sector conditions remained sustainable, but the Middle East conflict and the resulting disruption to commodity and shipping markets weighed on performance. Higher costs of petroleum products and intermediate inputs pushed import growth above export growth, widening the trade deficit. Foreign-exchange reserves of USD 5,888.2 million, equal to 4.2 months of projected imports excluding FDI-related imports, remain above the national benchmark.
Tanzania's current account is a goods problem partly solved by services. Goods and services together moved from a USD 146.6 million deficit to USD 1,053.0 million, and the deterioration of USD 780.9 million in the current account came entirely from goods (−USD 1,469.9 million), partly offset by services (+USD 563.6 million) and a smaller primary income deficit (+USD 156.3 million). Within services, transport receipts grew fastest (+26.4%), while travel receipts grew only 1.7%. (All TERI calculations.)
1. The Current Account
| USD million | Aug 2025 | Jul 2026 | Aug 2026 | Yr to Aug 2024 | Yr to Aug 2025 | Yr to Aug 2026p | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goods account | −327.7 | −638.9 | −478.0 | −6,086.3 | −4,340.3 | −5,810.2 | 33.9% |
| Exports | 1,032.4 | 1,116.8 | 1,080.1 | 8,055.2 | 9,981.2 | 11,960.8 | 19.8% |
| Imports | 1,360.1 | 1,755.8 | 1,558.1 | 14,141.5 | 14,321.5 | 17,770.9 | 24.1% |
| Services account | 454.5 | 563.0 | 627.1 | 4,127.4 | 4,193.6 | 4,757.2 | 13.4% |
| Goods and services | 126.8 | −75.9 | 149.2 | −1,958.9 | −146.6 | −1,053.0 | 618.2% |
| Primary income | −176.3 | −87.2 | −111.3 | −1,719.7 | −2,026.5 | −1,870.2 | −7.7% |
| Secondary income | 24.8 | 54.8 | 58.2 | 597.0 | 472.2 | 441.4 | −6.5% |
| Current account balance | −24.7 | −108.3 | 96.0 | −3,081.6 | −1,700.9 | −2,481.8 | 45.9% |
Source: Bank of Tanzania, Table 2.7.1. Exports include adjustments for informal cross-border trade. The August 2026 monthly balance was a USD 96.0 million surplus, a reversal from a USD 108.3 million deficit in July.
Current Account Components
What Widened the Deficit
1.1 Longer view: annual current account
Current Account Balance, Calendar Years
Calendar-year deficits narrowed from USD 5,482.2 million in 2022 to USD 2,049.4 million in 2025 (2.2% of GDP), so the year to August 2026 marks a reversal of that improvement.
1.2 Drivers on the goods side
- Exports: goods exports rose 19.8% to USD 11,960.8 million. Gold exports rose to USD 5,625.0 million from USD 4,321.5 million on higher prices and volumes, contributing nearly two-thirds of the increase; manufactured goods rose to USD 2,213.4 million; tobacco, tea and cotton also grew.
- Imports: petroleum products rose 51.7% to USD 3,425.6 million, about one third of the increase in the goods import bill; capital goods rose to USD 4,099.7 million from USD 3,030.2 million; industrial supplies reached USD 5,718.2 million.
- Income accounts: the primary income deficit narrowed to USD 1,870.2 million on lower payments to non-residents, while the secondary income surplus fell to USD 441.4 million.
02 — Services ExportsServices Receipts by Category
Service receipts increased 11.7% to USD 8,255.4 million in the year ending August 2026, backed by transport and travel receipts. Monthly receipts rose to USD 926.0 million in August 2026 from USD 772.9 million a year earlier (+19.8%, TERI calculation), largely on travel.
| Category (USD million) | Yr to Aug 2024 | Yr to Aug 2025 | Yr to Aug 2026p | Growth y/y | Share 2025 | Share 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travel (tourism) | 3,767.7 | 4,314.7 | 4,389.7 | +1.7% | 58.4% | 53.2% |
| Transport | 2,305.0 | 2,612.5 | 3,303.3 | +26.4% | 35.4% | 40.0% |
| Other services | 592.4 | 462.6 | 562.4 | +21.6% | 6.3% | 6.8% |
| Total service receipts | 6,665.1 | 7,389.8 | 8,255.4 | +11.7% | 100% | 100% |
Source: Bank of Tanzania, Chart 2.7.3 and Table 2.7.1. Growth and shares are TERI calculations. Other services include construction, insurance, financial, telecommunication, computer and information, intellectual property charges, government, personal and other business services.
Services Receipts by Category
Composition of Receipts, Yr to Aug 2026
- Travel (USD 4,389.7m, +1.7%) reflects continued resilience in tourism but has slowed sharply after growth of 14.5% the year before (TERI calculation), so its share fell to 53.2% from 58.4%.
- Transport (USD 3,303.3m, +26.4%) was underpinned by freight earnings from transit trade, which is the fastest-growing services export.
- Other services (USD 562.4m, +21.6%) recovered from USD 462.6 million but remain below the USD 592.4 million of 2024.
03 — Services ImportsServices Payments
Service payments increased to USD 3,498.2 million from USD 3,196.2 million, driven largely by freight. Freight payments rose to USD 1,683.4 million from USD 1,300.4 million, indicating strong import demand and persistent pressure on international shipping costs. Monthly service payments were USD 298.9 million in August 2026, against USD 318.4 million a year earlier.
| Category (USD million) | Yr to Aug 2024 | Yr to Aug 2025 | Yr to Aug 2026p | Growth y/y | Share 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Transport | 1,342.5 | 1,454.0 | 1,829.8 | +25.8% | 52.3% |
| Other services | 756.1 | 1,066.6 | 976.4 | −8.5% | 27.9% |
| Travel | 439.0 | 675.7 | 692.1 | +2.4% | 19.8% |
| Total service payments | 2,537.7 | 3,196.2 | 3,498.2 | +9.4% | 100% |
Source: Bank of Tanzania, Chart 2.7.5 and Table 2.7.1. Growth and shares are TERI calculations; category figures may differ from the total by USD 0.1 million due to rounding.
Services Payments by Category
Selected Services and Related Imports
Transport payments (USD 1,829.8m) are 52.3% of services payments and grew 25.8%, in step with the 24.1% growth in goods imports and with shipping costs raised by the Middle East conflict. Because Tanzania earns freight receipts from transit trade (USD 3,303.3m in transport receipts) but also pays heavily for import freight, the net transport surplus of USD 1,473.5 million depends on keeping corridor volumes high (TERI calculation).
04 — Net PositionServices Balance by Category
| USD million | Receipts 2026p | Payments 2026p | Net 2025 | Net 2026p |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travel | 4,389.7 | 692.1 | 3,639.0 | 3,697.6 |
| Transport | 3,303.3 | 1,829.8 | 1,158.5 | 1,473.5 |
| Other services | 562.4 | 976.4 | −604.0 | −414.0 |
| Services account | 8,255.4 | 3,498.2 | 4,193.5 | 4,757.1 |
TERI calculation from Charts 2.7.3 and 2.7.5; the totals differ from Table 2.7.1 (USD 4,193.6m and 4,757.2m) by rounding.
Net Services Balance by Category
Travel contributes 78% of the net services surplus. Transport's net surplus rose by USD 315.0 million (TERI calculation), the main reason the services surplus grew 13.4%. "Other services" remain a net outflow, though the deficit narrowed by USD 190 million.
05 — AnalysisRisks and Strengths
- Strength, services surplus: USD 4,757.2 million, covering 82% of the goods deficit.
- Strength, gold and reserves: gold exports of USD 5,625.0 million and the Bank's gold purchase programme support reserves of USD 5,888.2 million.
- Oil: a prolonged Middle East conflict keeps petroleum imports (USD 3,425.6m) and freight costs elevated.
- Gold dependence: about two-thirds of the export increase came from one commodity, exposed to price reversals.
- Tourism slowdown: travel receipts grew only 1.7%, and travel is 53% of services receipts and 78% of the services surplus.
- Financing: the shilling depreciated 6.7% y/y; a wider deficit adds to external borrowing needs.
06 — RecommendationsPolicy Recommendations
1. Diversify services exports
- Promote ICT, business and financial services alongside tourism.
- Report "other services" in more detail to track new exports.
2. Cut the freight and fuel bill
- Strengthen the railway and port corridor to lower logistics cost and retain transit trade.
- Advance domestic energy and local fuel-storage options.
3. Broaden goods exports
- Add value to gold, agriculture and minerals to reduce commodity concentration.
- Address the drop in cashew, cereals and oilseed exports.
4. For investors and importers
- Budget for freight and FX volatility in import-dependent projects.
- Tourism and logistics remain the largest services opportunities.
"Tanzania sells more services than it buys, but oil, freight and a single commodity now decide how wide the gap gets. Services are the cushion, not the cure."
— TICGL / Tanzania Economic Research Institute (TERI)
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✉️ economist@ticgl.com →07 — Quick AnswersFrequently Asked Questions
What is Tanzania's current account deficit?
USD 2,481.8 million in the year to August 2026, up from USD 1,700.9 million.
How much does Tanzania earn from services?
USD 8,255.4 million: travel USD 4,389.7 million, transport USD 3,303.3 million, other USD 562.4 million.
What are services payments?
USD 3,498.2 million, driven by freight payments of USD 1,683.4 million.
Why did imports rise?
Intermediate and capital goods, and a 51.7% jump in petroleum imports to USD 3,425.6 million.
Built from the Bank of Tanzania Monthly Economic Review, September 2026: Section 2.7 (External Sector Performance), Table 2.7.1, Charts 2.7.1–2.7.5, and Tables A5–A7. Growth rates, shares, net services balances and the current account bridge are TERI calculations.
Muhtasari kwa Kiswahili
Sekta ya Nje ya Tanzania, Agosti 2026 — Pengo la akaunti ya sasa (current account) liliongezeka hadi Dola milioni 2,481.8 kwa mwaka ulioishia Agosti 2026 kutoka 1,700.9, kwa sababu uagizaji wa bidhaa na huduma (+21.4%) ulikua haraka kuliko mauzo ya nje (+16.4%).
Mapato ya huduma: Dola milioni 8,255.4 (+11.7%): utalii 4,389.7 (+1.7% tu), usafirishaji 3,303.3 (+26.4%, kutokana na biashara ya usafirishaji wa mizigo ya nchi jirani), na huduma nyingine 562.4.
Malipo ya huduma: Dola milioni 3,498.2 (+9.4%), yakichochewa na usafirishaji wa mizigo (freight) uliofikia 1,683.4 kutoka 1,300.4.
Urari wa huduma: ziada ya Dola milioni 4,757.2, ikifidia karibu 82% ya nakisi ya bidhaa. Utalii unachangia 78% ya ziada hiyo (hesabu za TERI).
Hatari: bei za mafuta (uagizaji wa mafuta +51.7%), gharama za usafirishaji, utegemezi wa dhahabu, na kupungua kwa kasi ya ukuaji wa utalii.
- Akaunti ya sasa: −$2,481.8M | Akiba: $5,888.2M (miezi 4.2)
- Mapato ya huduma: $8,255.4M | Malipo: $3,498.2M
- Mauzo ya dhahabu: $5,625.0M
Chanzo: Benki Kuu ya Tanzania, Monthly Economic Review, Septemba 2026. Maelezo zaidi: economist@ticgl.com.