01 — OverviewExecutive Summary
Tanzania's national debt stock — external and domestic combined — stood at roughly TZS 134.6 trillion at the end of July 2026, essentially flat from the month before. That single figure hides two very different stories: an external debt load that keeps climbing in dollar terms and has more than doubled in TZS-trillion terms since 2018, and a domestic debt stock that has actually eased slightly over the past year as the government leaned more on non-securitized instruments than fresh bond issuance in a few recent months.
Five findings frame this debt breakdown.
- External debt still dominates, at roughly TZS 95.1 trillion — 70.7% of the total — with domestic debt making up the remaining TZS 39.5 trillion.
- Multilateral lenders remain Tanzania's single largest creditor group, holding roughly TZS 56.3 trillion (59.2%) of external debt, but the commercial-creditor share has been edging up, now roughly TZS 32.9 trillion (34.6%).
- The external debt book is overwhelmingly dollar-denominated — 65.3% in US dollars — which means TZS depreciation risk sits directly on top of the debt-service bill, independent of anything Tanzania does domestically.
- Domestically, government securities carry almost the entire load — roughly TZS 35.5 trillion (90.0%) of domestic debt — with commercial banks and pension funds together holding more than half of it.
- The long-run trend is unambiguous: external debt alone has grown from roughly TZS 46.4 trillion in 2018 to TZS 95.1 trillion by 2025/26 — more than doubling in eight years, even before accounting for domestic debt growth.
Read this alongside TICGL's flagship Dira 2050 policy-gaps analysis
Financing a USD 1 trillion economy takes capital — and how much of that capital is borrowed, on what terms, and in what currency, shapes how much fiscal room Dira 2050's ambitions actually have. TICGL/TERI recommends reading this debt breakdown alongside the Dira 2050 policy-gaps piece for the wider fiscal-space context.
Read: What's Next for Tanzania's Economy? The Policy Gaps Keeping $1 Trillion Out of Reach by 2050 →About TERI — TICGL's Research Institute
This breakdown was produced under the Tanzania Economic Research Institute (TERI), TICGL's affiliate research institute, drawing on its macroeconomics & public finance research pillar and its infrastructure & PPP pillar — debt sustainability and how borrowed capital is deployed (including into the transport, energy and social-welfare projects itemised below) sit at the centre of both.
Visit TERI — teri.ticgl.com →02 — At a GlanceKey Numbers, in TZS Trillions
Tanzania's National Debt Stock, July 2025 - July 2026
Source: Ministry of Finance and Bank of Tanzania, BOT Monthly Economic Review, August 2026, Table A10 — converted to TZS trillions using each month's end-of-period exchange rate (also from Table A10).
03 — MethodologyHow the Trillion-Shilling Figures Were Built
The Bank of Tanzania's own debt tables report external debt in Millions of US dollars, and domestic debt in Billions of TZS — two different currencies and two different scales. To make the whole national debt readable as one figure, in one unit, every USD-denominated line on this page has been converted to TZS using the end-of-period exchange rate for that same month (also published in the Bank's Table A10), then re-scaled from TZS millions to TZS trillions. TZS-denominated domestic-debt figures were simply re-scaled from billions to trillions (divide by 1,000).
External debt stock: USD 35,885.6 million × TZS 2,649.7/USD ≈ TZS 95,086,074 million ≈ TZS 95.09 trillion. Domestic debt stock: TZS 39,472.2 billion ÷ 1,000 = TZS 39.47 trillion. Summing the two independently (TZS 95.09tn + TZS 39.47tn ≈ TZS 134.56tn) reproduces the Bank's own reported national debt stock of USD 50,782.1 million converted the same way — a useful cross-check that the conversion is internally consistent.
Converting external debt to TZS at a point-in-time exchange rate does not change what Tanzania actually owes in dollar terms — it only restates it in local-currency terms for comparability with domestic debt. A TZS depreciation would mechanically raise the TZS-trillion value of external debt (and the local-currency cost of servicing it) even if the underlying USD-denominated debt stock does not change at all.
1. The National Debt Stock and Its Recent Trend
Rising steadily, external-debt-ledOver the twelve months to July 2026, Tanzania's national debt stock rose from roughly TZS 121.2 trillion to TZS 134.6 trillion — an increase of about TZS 13.4 trillion, or 11.1%. Almost all of that increase came from external debt, which rose from about TZS 85.8 trillion to TZS 95.1 trillion, while domestic debt actually moved within a narrower band, ending the period at roughly the same level it started (TZS 39.5 trillion vs TZS 35.4 trillion a year earlier — domestic debt did rise, but far more modestly than external debt in percentage terms).
| Month | External Debt | Domestic Debt | Total National Debt |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul-25 | 85.83 | 35.35 | 121.18 |
| Sep-25 | 84.30 | 37.64 | 121.94 |
| Nov-25 | 84.29 | 38.36 | 122.65 |
| Jan-26 | 88.95 | 38.60 | 127.55 |
| Mar-26 | 91.06 | 38.45 | 129.51 |
| May-26 | 92.48 | 39.26 | 131.74 |
| Jun-26 | 93.99 | 39.33 | 133.32 |
| Jul-26 | 95.09 | 39.47 | 134.56 |
Source: Ministry of Finance and Bank of Tanzania, BOT Monthly Economic Review, August 2026, Table A10 — converted to TZS trillions (see Methodology). Alternate months shown for readability; the chart above plots all thirteen months.
- The month-on-month total was essentially flat (-0.07%) in July 2026, but that flatness masks a small external-debt increase offset by a small domestic-debt decrease — worth watching whether that pattern continues or reverses.
- External debt is doing almost all of the multi-month growth work. Anyone modelling Tanzania's medium-term debt trajectory should weight external-debt drivers (new disbursements, FX movement) more heavily than domestic-debt drivers right now.
2. External Debt Structure: Who Owes It, and to Whom
Public-sector-led, multilateral-dominatedOf Tanzania's TZS 95.09 trillion external debt stock, the central government carries the overwhelming majority — TZS 79.58 trillion (83.7%) — with the private sector carrying the remaining TZS 15.50 trillion (16.3%). On the creditor side, multilateral institutions (the World Bank Group, African Development Bank, IMF and similar) hold the largest single share.
| Borrower | TZS Trillion | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Central government | 79.58 | 83.7% |
| Private sector | 15.50 | 16.3% |
| Public corporations | ~0.00 | 0.0% |
| Creditor | TZS Trillion | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Multilateral | 56.32 | 59.2% |
| Commercial | 32.93 | 34.6% |
| Bilateral | 4.13 | 4.3% |
| Export credit | 1.71 | 1.8% |
External Debt by Borrower
External Debt by Creditor
Source: Ministry of Finance and Bank of Tanzania, BOT Monthly Economic Review, August 2026, Tables 2.6.1 and 2.6.2 — converted to TZS trillions.
Commercial creditors now hold more than a third of Tanzania's external debt. Commercial borrowing typically carries shorter maturities and higher interest rates than concessional multilateral financing, which means a rising commercial share tends to push up both the near-term debt-service bill and its sensitivity to global interest-rate conditions.
3. What the Borrowed Money Is For, and What Currency It's In
Infrastructure-heavy, dollar-heavyBalance-of-payments and budget support remains the single largest use of Tanzania's disbursed external debt, at 22.8% as of July 2026, followed closely by transport and telecommunication (21.9%) and social welfare and education (19.5%) — together these three categories account for roughly two-thirds of all disbursed external debt.
| Use of Funds | Share |
|---|---|
| Balance of payments & budget support | 22.8% |
| Transport & telecommunication | 21.9% |
| Social welfare & education | 19.5% |
| Energy & mining | 12.5% |
| Agriculture | 5.3% |
| Real estate & construction | 4.8% |
| Finance & insurance | 4.2% |
| Other | 4.6% |
| Industries | 2.7% |
| Tourism | 1.6% |
| Currency | Share |
|---|---|
| US Dollar | 65.3% |
| Euro | 18.2% |
| Chinese Yuan | 6.6% |
| Other | 9.9% |
Use of Funds
Currency Composition
Source: Ministry of Finance and Bank of Tanzania, BOT Monthly Economic Review, August 2026, Tables 2.6.3 and 2.6.4.
4. Domestic Debt Structure: Government Securities Carry the Load
Bond-financed, bank- and pension-fund-heldDomestic debt stood at TZS 39.47 trillion at the end of July 2026, with government securities alone making up TZS 35.53 trillion (90.0%) — of which government bonds are by far the largest instrument, at TZS 33.62 trillion (85.2% of total domestic debt), against just TZS 1.78 trillion (4.5%) in Treasury bills. Non-securitized debt (overdraft) made up the remaining TZS 3.94 trillion.
| Instrument | TZS Trillion | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Government bonds | 33.62 | 85.2% |
| Non-securitized debt (overdraft) | 3.94 | 10.0% |
| Treasury bills | 1.78 | 4.5% |
| Government stocks | 0.14 | 0.3% |
| Creditor | TZS Trillion | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Commercial banks | 11.45 | 29.0% |
| Pension funds | 10.49 | 26.6% |
| Bank of Tanzania | 6.82 | 17.3% |
| Others (public institutions, private companies, individuals, non-residents) | 7.79 | 19.7% |
| Insurance | 2.06 | 5.2% |
| BOT's special funds | 0.85 | 2.2% |
Domestic Debt by Instrument
Domestic Debt by Creditor
Source: Ministry of Finance and Bank of Tanzania, BOT Monthly Economic Review, August 2026, Tables 2.6.5 and 2.6.6 — converted from TZS billions to TZS trillions.
- Commercial banks and pension funds together hold 55.6% of domestic debt — a concentration that ties Tanzania's banking-sector and pension-fund balance sheets closely to government-bond performance, in both directions.
- The government's own overdraft facility with the Bank of Tanzania (part of "non-securitized debt") is a smaller but faster-moving domestic-financing tool worth watching separately from the bond programme.
5. The Long-Run Trajectory: External Debt Has More Than Doubled Since 2018
Sustained, multi-year climbZooming out from the last twelve months to the last eight years shows the same direction of travel, just more of it. Tanzania's external debt stock has grown from roughly TZS 46.4 trillion in 2018 to roughly TZS 88.2 trillion in 2025 — before the further rise to TZS 95.1 trillion by July 2026 captured in Section 1. That is more than a doubling in eight years, a period spanning the COVID-19 shock, a global rate-hiking cycle, and a sustained domestic infrastructure investment push.
Tanzania's External Debt Stock, 2018-2025
Source: Bank of Tanzania, Monthly Economic Review, August 2026, Table A1 (Selected Economic Indicators) — external debt stock and annual-average exchange rate, converted to TZS trillions.
In July 2026 alone, actual external debt service came to roughly TZS 0.32 trillion (about TZS 0.27 trillion in principal and TZS 0.06 trillion in interest), against fresh disbursements of only about TZS 0.11 trillion that same month — meaning debt service outpaced new borrowing in July specifically. External debt arrears (overdue principal and interest) also stood at roughly TZS 2.60 trillion at end July 2026, a figure worth monitoring for whether it continues to grow.
06 — SynthesisCross-Cutting Synthesis: Tanzania's Debt in One Picture
At TZS 95.1 trillion and rising, external debt drives almost all of the recent growth in Tanzania's national debt stock — domestic debt has been comparatively stable.
Concessional multilateral financing still leads, but a rising commercial-creditor share (34.6%) is pushing the average cost and tenor of new debt in a less favourable direction.
Nearly two-thirds of external debt is dollar-denominated — a single-currency concentration that ties debt-service costs tightly to shilling movements.
Government bonds dominate domestic borrowing, held mainly by commercial banks and pension funds — a stable but concentrated funding base.
07 — RecommendationsWhat This Means for Policy and for Investors
Priority 1 — Track the Commercial-Creditor Share Over Time
- A rising commercial share of external debt (now 34.6%) is a leading indicator of rising average debt-service costs — worth tracking quarter to quarter, not just as a snapshot.
Priority 2 — Treat FX Risk as a Debt-Management Issue, Not Just a Trade Issue
- With 65.3% of external debt in US dollars, any sustained TZS depreciation raises the local-currency debt-service bill mechanically — hedging and reserve-adequacy planning should account for this explicitly.
Priority 3 — Watch the Disbursement-vs-Debt-Service Balance Monthly
- July 2026's debt service (TZS 0.32tn) outpacing new disbursements (TZS 0.11tn) is a single-month snapshot, not a trend — but it is worth checking against future months.
Priority 4 — Understand the Domestic Debt Holder Concentration
- With commercial banks and pension funds holding 55.6% of domestic debt between them, any stress in government-bond markets would transmit directly into bank and pension-fund balance sheets.
"A debt figure in dollars and a debt figure in shillings tell two different stories until you put them on the same scale. Once you do, the picture is clear: Tanzania's debt load is growing steadily, it is increasingly dollar-denominated, and it is increasingly held by commercial rather than concessional lenders — three trends worth watching together, not separately."
— TICGL / Tanzania Economic Research Institute (TERI)
08 — Sources & Data NotesReferences, Data Sources and Limitations
Bank of Tanzania, Monthly Economic Review, August 2026 — Table A10 (National Debt Developments), Tables 2.6.1 through 2.6.6 (External and Domestic Debt), and Table A1 (Selected Economic Indicators). All TZS-trillion figures on this page are TICGL/TERI's own conversion of the Bank's USD-millions and TZS-billions figures, using the exchange rate published for the matching period in the same release.
- Primary data: Ministry of Finance and Bank of Tanzania — Monthly Economic Review, August 2026.
- Conversion method: USD-denominated figures converted to TZS using the end-of-period exchange rate for monthly series (Table A10) and the annual-average exchange rate for the 2018-2025 annual series (Table A1), then re-scaled from TZS millions to TZS trillions. TZS-billion figures re-scaled directly to TZS trillions.
- Known limitation: Point-in-time exchange-rate conversion means the TZS-trillion value of external debt moves with the shilling even when the underlying USD debt stock does not; 2026 figures are provisional and subject to revision in subsequent BOT releases.
09 — Quick AnswersFrequently Asked Questions
What is Tanzania's national debt in 2026?
Tanzania's national debt stock stood at approximately TZS 134.6 trillion (USD 50,782.1 million) at the end of July 2026, broadly unchanged from the previous month. This combines both external and domestic debt.
How much of Tanzania's debt is external versus domestic?
External debt made up about TZS 95.1 trillion (70.7%) of the total, while domestic debt made up about TZS 39.5 trillion (29.3%), as of end July 2026.
Who are Tanzania's biggest external creditors?
Multilateral institutions are the largest external creditor group, holding about TZS 56.3 trillion (59.2%) of external debt, followed by commercial creditors at about TZS 32.9 trillion (34.6%), bilateral creditors at about TZS 4.1 trillion (4.3%), and export credit agencies at about TZS 1.7 trillion (1.8%).
What currency is most of Tanzania's external debt denominated in?
The US dollar dominates, accounting for 65.3% of disbursed outstanding external debt as of July 2026, followed by the Euro at 18.2%, the Chinese Yuan at 6.6%, and other currencies at 9.9%.
Who holds most of Tanzania's domestic debt?
Commercial banks hold the largest share of domestic debt, at about TZS 11.5 trillion (29.0%), followed by pension funds at about TZS 10.5 trillion (26.6%) and the Bank of Tanzania at about TZS 6.8 trillion (17.3%), as of end July 2026.
Muhtasari kwa Kiswahili
Deni la Taifa la Tanzania, Julai 2026: Trilioni 134.6 za Shilingi, Likichambuliwa kwa Mkopeshaji, Sarafu na Matumizi. Ukurasa huu unaonesha deni la taifa la Tanzania — la nje na la ndani — likiwa katika kipimo kimoja tu: Trilioni za Shilingi za Tanzania (TZS), badala ya kuchanganya Dola za Kimarekani (deni la nje) na Bilioni za Shilingi (deni la ndani) kama BOT inavyoripoti.
Mambo makuu: Deni la taifa lilifikia takribani Trilioni 134.6 za TZS mwishoni mwa Julai 2026, likiwa thabiti kiasi ikilinganishwa na mwezi uliopita. Deni la nje linaendelea kutawala kwa Trilioni 95.1 (asilimia 70.7), huku deni la ndani likiwa Trilioni 39.5 (asilimia 29.3). Taasisi za kimataifa (multilateral) ndizo mkopeshaji mkubwa zaidi wa deni la nje kwa Trilioni 56.3 (asilimia 59.2), ikifuatiwa na wakopeshaji wa kibiashara kwa Trilioni 32.9 (asilimia 34.6) — sehemu inayozidi kuongezeka. Asilimia 65.3 ya deni la nje liko kwa Dola za Kimarekani, hivyo mabadiliko ya thamani ya shilingi yanaathiri moja kwa moja gharama za kulipa deni hilo. Deni la ndani linatawaliwa na hatifungani za Serikali (Trilioni 33.6, asilimia 85.2), likishikiliwa zaidi na benki za kibiashara na mifuko ya pensheni. Kwa muda mrefu, deni la nje limeongezeka zaidi ya mara mbili tangu mwaka 2018 (kutoka Trilioni 46.4 hadi Trilioni 95.1).
- Deni la Taifa (Julai 2026): Trilioni 134.6 za TZS
- Deni la Nje: Trilioni 95.1 (asilimia 70.7)
- Deni la Ndani: Trilioni 39.5 (asilimia 29.3)
- Mkopeshaji Mkubwa wa Deni la Nje: Taasisi za Kimataifa — Trilioni 56.3 (asilimia 59.2)
- Sarafu Kuu ya Deni la Nje: Dola ya Kimarekani — asilimia 65.3
- Ukuaji wa Deni la Nje Tangu 2018: Trilioni 46.4 hadi Trilioni 95.1 (zaidi ya mara mbili)
Chanzo: Tanzania Economic Research Institute (TERI), kwa ajili ya TICGL, uchambuzi wa takwimu za deni la Benki Kuu ya Tanzania, Agosti 2026 — zilizobadilishwa kuwa Trilioni za TZS.