01 — OverviewExecutive Summary
Tanzania's National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released the National Consumer Price Index (NCPI) for July 2026 on 10 August 2026, showing annual Headline Inflation at 4.2 percent, up from 4.0 percent in June 2026. This is a significant release for one specific reason: July was the first calendar month priced entirely under the FY2026/27 Budget's new tax measures, which took effect on 1 July 2026 following the Government's June budget announcement — the presumptive tax adjustments, betting excise duty changes and other revenue measures TICGL examined in its FY2026/27 Budget series. This report asks the question households and businesses are asking directly: one month on, is the new budget visible in the price data yet, and where should Tanzanians expect to feel it first?
The headline answer is nuanced. Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages inflation — the single most important line for the average household budget, carrying the largest weight (28.2 percent) in the whole NCPI basket — held flat at 4.1 percent year-on-year and actually fell 0.8 percent month-on-month, as staple grains and tubers cheapened with the season. That is genuinely good news, and it is not the signature of a tax-driven food price shock. The pressure instead shows up on the transport and energy side: Transport inflation reached 13.8 percent year-on-year, by far the highest of the thirteen COICOP divisions, and diesel, petrol, charcoal and gas all rose in price within the month of July itself — the first month those goods carried the new fiscal year's duty structure.
- Headline inflation edged up but stayed moderate. At 4.2 percent, headline inflation remains comfortably inside the Bank of Tanzania's 3-5 percent target band, continuing a run of thirteen straight months between 3.2 percent and 4.2 percent.
- Food inflation eased, not spiked. Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages inflation stayed at 4.1 percent year-on-year and fell month-on-month, led by cheaper rice, maize grain, maize flour, sweet potatoes, cassava and beans — a harvest-season pattern, not a budget-shock pattern.
- Fuel and energy is where the July move actually shows up. Diesel (+3.3% m/m), petrol (+2.5% m/m), charcoal (+4.5% m/m) and gas (+1.3% m/m) all rose in the very month the new fiscal year's tax and duty structure took effect, and the Energy, Fuel and Utilities Index posted 6.9 percent inflation year-on-year — its highest reading in this dataset.
- One month is not enough to prove causation. Fuel prices move with global oil markets, the exchange rate and seasonal transport demand as well as domestic duties. TICGL treats July as the first data point to watch, not a verdict, and will track the August and September releases closely.
- Core inflation crept up but remains contained. At 3.9 percent (up from 3.7 percent in June), core inflation — which strips out volatile food and energy prices — confirms that the broader, stickier price pressure in the economy is still modest.
Read this alongside TICGL's flagship Dira 2050 policy-gaps analysis
Inflation control is one of the macroeconomic conditions Tanzania needs to hold steady on the road to Dira 2050's US$1 trillion, US$7,000-per-capita ambition. See TICGL/TERI's wider assessment of the financing, productivity and institutional gaps that stand between Tanzania and that target by 2050.
Read: What's Next for Tanzania's Economy? The Policy Gaps Keeping $1 Trillion Out of Reach by 2050 →02 — ContextAbout the National Consumer Price Index
The NCPI measures how the cost of a fixed basket of goods and services purchased by a representative sample of Tanzanian households changes over time. The current basket contains 383 goods and services — 132 food and non-alcoholic beverage items and 251 non-food items — priced using data collected from all 26 regional headquarters on the Tanzanian mainland. Weights are derived from the 2017/18 Household Budget Survey, the base price reference period is the average of January-December 2020, and the index reference period is 2020 (2020=100). The index follows the UN's Classification of Individual Consumption by Purpose (COICOP), 2018 version, across 13 divisions, and elementary indices are compiled using the geometric mean of price relatives, with higher-level aggregates built on the Lowe Index formula, a type of Laspeyres index.
Why July 2026 matters for this analysis
Tanzania's FY2026/27 Budget was presented in June 2026 and its tax and duty measures — including presumptive tax adjustments and a revised betting excise duty, as covered in TICGL's earlier budget-series research — took legal effect from 1 July 2026. Because NCPI price collection runs through the calendar month, the July 2026 release is the first NBS print built on prices collected entirely inside the new fiscal year. It is the earliest possible data point for observing whether new duties are visible at the till.
Supplementary indices published alongside the NCPI
- Core Index (excludes unprocessed food, energy and utilities except maize flour) — 73.9% of basket weight
- Non-Core Index — 26.1% of basket weight
- Energy, Fuel and Utilities Index — 5.7% of basket weight
- Services Index (37.2%) and Goods Index (62.8%)
- All Items Less Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages Index — 71.8% of basket weight
NCPI Basket Composition by COICOP Division
03 — The Twelve-Month PictureHeadline Inflation Trend, July 2025 – July 2026
The Headline Inflation Rate measures overall inflation across the full CPI basket. Table 1 below and NBS's own Chart 1 show the NCPI generally trending upward across the year, from 119.85 in July 2025 to 124.85 in July 2026, while the annual inflation rate stayed within a narrow 3.2-4.2 percent range throughout — dipping to its lowest point in February-March 2026 before climbing through the second half of the fiscal year to its twelve-month high in July 2026.
NCPI Index and Annual Inflation Rate, July 2025 – July 2026
| Month | NCPI | Annual Inflation Rate (%) |
|---|---|---|
| Jul-2025 | 119.85 | 3.3 |
| Aug-2025 | 119.77 | 3.4 |
| Sep-2025 | 119.86 | 3.4 |
| Oct-2025 | 119.63 | 3.5 |
| Nov-2025 | 120.01 | 3.4 |
| Dec-2025 | 121.11 | 3.6 |
| Jan-2026 | 121.41 | 3.3 |
| Feb-2026 | 122.01 | 3.2 |
| Mar-2026 | 123.04 | 3.2 |
| Apr-2026 | 124.61 | 4.0 |
| May-2026 | 124.90 | 4.2 |
| Jun-2026 | 125.04 | 4.0 |
| Jul-2026 | 124.85 | 4.2 |
Source: NBS NCPI Press Release, July 2026, Chart 1 and Table 1.
Between June and July 2026 the overall index actually fell slightly, from 125.04 to 124.85 — a 0.1 percent month-on-month decrease, driven mainly by cheaper food and staple grain prices. The annual rate still rose to 4.2 percent because July 2025's base value was low; this is a reminder that headline year-on-year inflation and month-on-month price direction can move in opposite directions in the same release, and both numbers matter for a complete picture.
04 — What This Means at the MarketFood Inflation: The Number That Matters Most for Households
Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages carries the single largest weight in the NCPI basket at 28.2 percent — more than any other division — which is why it is the most consequential line for a typical Tanzanian household's real cost of living, and the line TICGL scrutinises most closely for signs of budget pass-through. In July 2026, food inflation held at 4.1 percent year-on-year, unchanged from June, while the food index itself fell month-on-month, from 136.92 in July 2025... actually from 136.92 (index level a year prior) — more precisely, from 136.92 in July 2025 to 136.92 baseline comparison aside, the relevant month-on-month move was from June 2026's 136.92 down to July 2026's 135.79, a decrease of 0.8 percent.
The month-on-month decline was broad-based across staple foods, consistent with a seasonal harvest effect rather than a tax-driven price shock. The items pulling food prices down in July included several of the staples that make up the bulk of an ordinary Tanzanian household's plate:
Food Items With the Largest Price Movements, June → July 2026
| Item | Month-on-Month Change | Likely Driver |
|---|---|---|
| Sweet potatoes | -6.7% | Seasonal harvest supply |
| Cocoyams | -4.5% | Seasonal harvest supply |
| Maize flour | -4.3% | Post-harvest maize supply |
| Rice | -4.2% | Seasonal supply / import flows |
| Maize grains | -3.6% | Post-harvest maize supply |
| Flour of cassava | -3.4% | Seasonal harvest supply |
| Dried cowpeas | -2.1% | Seasonal harvest supply |
| Sorghum grains | -2.0% | Seasonal harvest supply |
| Dried beans | -2.0% | Seasonal harvest supply |
| Vegetables | -1.9% | Seasonal supply |
| Cassava dry | -1.4% | Seasonal harvest supply |
| Groundnuts | -1.3% | Seasonal harvest supply |
| Poultry, live | -1.1% | Supply / feed cost easing |
| Bread and bakery products | -0.5% | Wheat flour cost pass-through |
| Wheat flour | -0.3% | Import price / supply |
Source: NBS NCPI Press Release, July 2026, Section 3.
If the FY2026/27 Budget's tax measures were pushing food prices up broadly, the clearest place it would show first is staple grains and tubers, since these dominate the food basket and move through short, largely domestic supply chains. Instead, every one of the food items NBS flagged in July moved down, and the pattern — grains, tubers and pulses all falling together — is the signature of a harvest-season supply effect, not a new tax working its way through the food chain. This is a genuinely positive early reading for household food budgets.
05 — Where the Pressure Actually Shows UpFuel, Energy and Transport: The Line to Watch
While food prices eased, the same NBS release shows a very different pattern in transport and energy. Transport inflation reached 13.8 percent year-on-year in July 2026 — the highest annual inflation rate of any of the 13 COICOP divisions by a wide margin, and more than three times the headline rate. The Energy, Fuel and Utilities Index recorded 6.9 percent inflation year-on-year, also well above the headline figure. Within the month of July alone, diesel, petrol, charcoal and gas — the fuels that price everything from bus fares to cooking to the cost of moving food to market — all rose.
Fuel and Energy Items: Month-on-Month Price Change, June → July 2026
| Item | Month-on-Month Change | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Charcoal | +4.5% | Key household cooking fuel, particularly urban low-income households |
| Diesel | +3.3% | Dominant fuel for freight, public transport and agricultural transport |
| Petrol | +2.5% | Private and commercial vehicle fuel |
| Gas | +1.3% | Household cooking fuel, urban middle-income households |
| Garments for infants | +0.3% | Non-food, non-energy item |
| Clothing materials | +0.3% | Non-food, non-energy item |
Source: NBS NCPI Press Release, July 2026, Section 3.
Diesel and petrol prices in Tanzania respond to at least three forces simultaneously: global crude oil and refined-product prices, the shilling's exchange rate against the dollar, and domestic taxes, levies and duties set in the national budget. All three can move in the same month. TICGL cannot, from a single NBS release, separate how much of July's diesel and petrol increase came from global oil markets versus how much came from the FY2026/27 duty structure that took effect on 1 July. What can be said with confidence is that fuel and energy is mathematically the fastest-moving, highest-inflation part of the entire basket in the first month of the new fiscal year, and it is the line item most directly exposed to fuel levies and import duties. That makes it the correct place to keep watching, not a place to draw early conclusions.
Transport costs feed into the price of almost everything else with a lag — bus and dala-dala fares, the cost of moving food from farm to market, and the electricity and cooking-fuel bill for both urban and rural households. Even if July's food staples got cheaper at the point of harvest, a sustained rise in diesel and charcoal prices can slowly erode that gain by raising the cost of getting food to market and cooking it once it arrives — a lagged transmission TICGL will be watching for in the August and September releases.
06 — The Full PictureInflation by COICOP Division, July 2026
Table 1 below reproduces NBS's full group-by-group breakdown for July 2026, showing each division's weight in the basket, its index level a year ago and a month ago, its July 2026 index, and both its month-on-month and year-on-year percentage change.
Annual Inflation Rate by COICOP Division, July 2026
| Main Group | Weight (%) | Jul-2025 | Jun-2026 | Jul-2026 | M-o-M (%) | Y-o-Y (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Food and non-alcoholic beverages | 28.2 | 130.47 | 136.92 | 135.79 | -0.8 | 4.1 |
| Alcoholic beverages and tobacco | 1.9 | 112.50 | 114.49 | 114.67 | 0.2 | 1.9 |
| Clothing and footwear | 10.8 | 114.89 | 116.42 | 116.69 | 0.2 | 1.6 |
| Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels | 15.1 | 118.77 | 120.74 | 120.73 | 0.0 | 1.6 |
| Furnishings, household equipment & maintenance | 7.9 | 116.31 | 118.48 | 118.90 | 0.4 | 2.2 |
| Health | 2.5 | 109.63 | 111.04 | 111.12 | 0.1 | 1.4 |
| Transport | 14.1 | 119.59 | 135.98 | 136.11 | 0.1 | 13.8 |
| Information and communication | 5.4 | 106.25 | 107.17 | 106.90 | -0.3 | 0.6 |
| Recreation, sport and culture | 1.6 | 110.98 | 111.72 | 111.72 | 0.0 | 0.7 |
| Education services | 2.0 | 112.16 | 115.18 | 115.29 | 0.1 | 2.8 |
| Restaurants and accommodation services | 6.6 | 117.35 | 119.56 | 120.51 | 0.8 | 2.7 |
| Insurance and financial services | 2.1 | 102.39 | 102.61 | 102.60 | 0.0 | 0.2 |
| Personal care, social protection & misc. goods/services | 2.1 | 118.14 | 122.34 | 122.21 | -0.1 | 3.4 |
| TOTAL — ALL ITEMS INDEX | 100.0 | 119.85 | 125.04 | 124.85 | -0.1 | 4.2 |
Other Selected Indices
| Index | Weight (%) | Jul-2025 | Jun-2026 | Jul-2026 | M-o-M (%) | Y-o-Y (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Core Index | 73.9 | 115.93 | 120.17 | 120.44 | 0.2 | 3.9 |
| Non-Core Index | 26.1 | 130.98 | 138.85 | 137.38 | -1.1 | 4.9 |
| Energy, Fuel and Utilities Index | 5.7 | 132.57 | 142.83 | 141.76 | -0.8 | 6.9 |
| Services Index | 37.2 | 112.70 | 118.72 | 119.16 | 0.4 | 5.7 |
| Goods Index | 62.8 | 124.09 | 128.78 | 128.22 | -0.4 | 3.3 |
| Education services & products ancillary to education | 4.1 | 114.34 | 116.24 | 116.24 | 0.0 | 1.7 |
| All Items Less Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages | 71.8 | 115.69 | 120.37 | 120.56 | 0.2 | 4.2 |
Source: NBS NCPI Press Release, July 2026, Table 1.
Headline vs Core vs Food vs Services vs Goods vs Energy: Annual Inflation, July 2026
07 — The Question Everyone Is AskingReading the Budget Signal: One Month On
Tanzania's FY2026/27 Budget, presented to Parliament in June 2026, introduced a range of tax and revenue measures — presumptive tax adjustments for small businesses and a revised betting excise duty among them, as TICGL's earlier budget-series research documented — alongside a significant increase in the public wage bill. Those measures took legal effect from 1 July 2026. July's NCPI release is therefore the earliest possible window into whether the new fiscal year's tax structure is visible in consumer prices, and the honest reading of the data is: partially, and only in one place so far.
FY2026/27 Budget presented and passed
New tax and duty measures, including presumptive tax and betting excise duty changes, are approved for the fiscal year beginning 1 July 2026.
New fiscal year begins; tax and duty measures take effect
NCPI price collection for July begins under the new fiscal year's duty structure for the first time.
First fully post-budget month of price data
Food prices fall month-on-month on seasonal supply; fuel, charcoal and gas rise; transport inflation reaches 13.8 percent year-on-year.
NBS releases the July 2026 NCPI
The data TICGL analyses in this report becomes public.
August, September and October releases due
The next three NCPI releases will show whether July's fuel and transport pattern persists, accelerates or fades — the true test of any budget pass-through.
What the data supports saying
- Food prices, the largest and most politically sensitive basket item, moved down in July — no visible sign of a broad tax-driven food price shock in month one.
- Fuel, charcoal and gas — the items most directly exposed to duties, levies and import costs — all rose in the same month the new fiscal year's tax structure took effect.
- Transport inflation at 13.8 percent year-on-year is not new in this dataset; it has been elevated for some months, but July continued that pattern with the highest reading in the twelve-month series shown.
What the data cannot support saying yet
- That the FY2026/27 Budget's specific tax measures caused the July fuel price increase — global oil prices and the exchange rate moved in the same window and cannot be separated out from one release.
- That food prices are now safe from budget-related pressure for the rest of the year — presumptive tax changes affect small traders' costs in ways that can take several months to show up in retail prices.
- That transport's 13.8 percent reading is new or budget-driven, since it was already the highest-inflation division before July arrived.
Rather than declare a verdict from a single data point, TICGL will track the Energy, Fuel and Utilities Index, the Transport division, and the Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages division across the August, September and October 2026 NCPI releases (due 8 September, 8 October and 9 November 2026 respectively) and update this analysis. A genuine budget-driven pass-through would be expected to persist or build over several months, not appear and disappear in one release.
08 — Looking AheadWhat Could the Next Six Months Bring?
Projecting inflation six months out is inherently uncertain, and TICGL does not present the scenarios below as forecasts with precise numbers — no single NCPI release can support that. Instead, these are three plausible directions the data could move in through early 2027, based on the forces already visible in the July release, each with the conditions that would confirm it.
Headline inflation stays inside the 3-5% band
- Food inflation stays moderate as the harvest season continues to support supply through late 2026.
- Fuel prices stabilise or ease slightly if global oil prices hold steady and the shilling remains stable.
- Core inflation stays close to its current 3.9%, keeping BOT's monetary stance broadly unchanged.
Transport and energy inflation persists or edges higher
- Diesel, petrol, charcoal and gas continue rising in the August-October releases, confirming a sustained fiscal-year effect rather than a one-month blip.
- Higher transport costs begin to lift food prices with a lag, as it becomes more expensive to move produce to market, partially offsetting the current harvest-season relief.
- Headline inflation drifts toward the upper end of the 3-5% band by year-end.
Post-harvest food price reversal plus sustained fuel pressure
- The seasonal food price relief fades once the current harvest is absorbed, typically toward the final quarter of the calendar year.
- If this coincides with continued fuel and transport cost pressure, both major components of the basket could push upward at the same time.
- This is the combination that would most directly test the 3-5% inflation target band and warrant closer BOT attention.
Three consecutive months (August-October 2026) of rising Transport and Energy, Fuel and Utilities inflation, occurring alongside a stable or appreciating shilling and stable global oil prices, would be the clearest evidence that the FY2026/27 Budget's duty structure — rather than external factors — is driving the pattern. Conversely, if fuel inflation eases once July's one-off adjustment period passes, that would suggest global or exchange-rate factors, rather than the domestic tax structure, were the larger driver.
09 — TICGL AnalysisWhat This Means for the Ordinary Tanzanian Household
1. The food budget got a genuine, if temporary, reprieve
For households where food is the largest share of spending, July's month-on-month price falls in rice, maize, cassava and beans are real relief, and it arrived in the same month the new budget's measures took effect — an important, reassuring coincidence for anyone worried the new fiscal year would immediately hit the plate.
2. The transport bill is the one to watch, not celebrate
At 13.8 percent year-on-year, transport inflation was already the fastest-moving part of the basket before July, and it stayed there. Households that spend a meaningful share of income on bus fares, motorcycle taxis (bodaboda) fuel, or moving goods to market are the ones most exposed to whatever is driving this line, whatever combination of global and domestic factors turns out to be responsible.
3. Core inflation is the Bank of Tanzania's real dashboard
At 3.9 percent, core inflation — the measure BOT watches most closely because it strips out the volatile food and energy swings — remains comfortably inside target. That suggests the underlying, broad-based inflation picture in the economy is still stable even as individual line items like fuel move more sharply.
4. This is exactly the kind of test BOT's new Strategic Plan was built for
TICGL's companion analysis of the Bank of Tanzania's Strategic Plan 2026/27-2030/31 notes that BOT's core mandate is to keep inflation inside its 3-5% band while FYDP IV and Dira 2050 build on that stability. July's reading — headline and core both still inside target, with one pressure point (fuel) worth monitoring — is precisely the kind of month that mandate is designed to manage calmly rather than react to.
One month after the FY2026/27 Budget's tax measures took effect, Tanzania's inflation picture is stable, not alarming: headline inflation at 4.2 percent and core inflation at 3.9 percent both sit inside the Bank of Tanzania's target band, and food prices — the line that matters most for household welfare — actually eased. The one area genuinely worth household and policymaker attention is fuel and transport, where price increases coincided with the new fiscal year but cannot yet be attributed to it with confidence. TICGL's view is that the next two to three NCPI releases, not this one alone, will tell the real story of how the FY2026/27 Budget is landing on ordinary Tanzanians.
10 — TICGL RecommendationsWhat To Watch and What To Do
- Track the Energy, Fuel and Utilities Index monthly, not just the headline rate. It is currently the fastest-moving major index (6.9% y/y) and the most direct channel through which fiscal measures would show up.
- Separate global and domestic drivers of fuel prices by cross-referencing global crude oil price movements and the TZS/USD exchange rate against each month's diesel and petrol price changes, rather than reading NCPI fuel data in isolation.
- Watch for lagged transport pass-through into food prices over the next two to three releases — higher transport costs typically reach the market a month or two after fuel prices move, even when farm-gate food prices are falling.
- Households and small businesses should budget for continued fuel volatility in the near term rather than assume July's food price relief extends automatically to transport and energy costs.
- Policymakers should consider publishing a simple monthly bridge showing how much of any fuel price change is attributable to global price movements, exchange rate movements, and domestic tax/duty changes respectively — this would let households, TICGL and other analysts assess budget impact with far more confidence than the current release format allows.
11 — Quick AnswersFrequently Asked Questions
What is Tanzania's headline inflation rate for July 2026?
Annual Headline Inflation rose to 4.2 percent in July 2026, up from 4.0 percent in June 2026, though the overall index fell slightly month-on-month, from 125.04 to 124.85.
What is Tanzania's food inflation rate in July 2026?
Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages inflation held at 4.1 percent year-on-year, unchanged from June, while food prices fell 0.8 percent month-on-month on cheaper staples such as rice, maize, sweet potatoes and beans.
Did the FY2026/27 Budget's tax measures push up inflation?
July 2026 is the first NCPI release built entirely on post-budget prices. Food inflation eased, but transport inflation reached 13.8 percent year-on-year and diesel, petrol, charcoal and gas all rose within the month. One month of data cannot prove causation, but fuel and energy is the clearest line to watch over the coming releases.
What is core inflation in Tanzania as of July 2026?
Core inflation, which excludes volatile food, energy and utility prices, rose to 3.9 percent in July 2026 from 3.7 percent in June, remaining within the Bank of Tanzania's 3-5 percent target band.
Which items got cheaper and which got more expensive in July 2026?
Staple foods including rice, maize grain, maize flour, sweet potatoes, cassava and beans got cheaper month-on-month. Charcoal, diesel, petrol, gas and clothing materials got more expensive, with fuel and energy items showing the sharpest increases.
12 — MethodologySources & Notes
- National Bureau of Statistics (Tanzania) — National Consumer Price Index (NCPI) Press Release for July 2026, Ref: AC 334/376/01/381, dated 10 August 2026 (nbs.go.tz).
- TICGL/TERI prior research: TICGL's FY2026/27 Tanzania National Budget analysis series (overall tax measures, presumptive tax, betting excise duty, wage bill increase) and TICGL's Bank of Tanzania Strategic Plan 2026/27-2030/31 analysis.
- Global oil price and exchange-rate context referenced qualitatively; TICGL did not have access to a matched monthly global oil price or exchange-rate dataset at the time of writing and recommends this comparison be made explicitly in a future update.
- This page is an independent analytical summary prepared by TICGL/TERI based on NBS's published NCPI release and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Figures reflect NBS's own reporting as published.
Muhtasari kwa Kiswahili
Je, Bajeti Mpya ya 2026/27 Imeanza Kuathiri Bei za Chakula na Mafuta? Ofisi ya Taifa ya Takwimu (NBS) imetoa taarifa ya Kielezo cha Bei za Bidhaa Kitaifa (NCPI) kwa mwezi Julai 2026, ikionyesha mfumuko wa bei kwa ujumla (Headline Inflation) umefikia asilimia 4.2, ukiwa umepanda kutoka asilimia 4.0 mwezi Juni 2026. Julai 2026 ni mwezi wa kwanza kamili ambao bei zilikusanywa baada ya hatua za kodi za Bajeti ya 2026/27 kuanza kutumika rasmi tarehe 1 Julai 2026.
Uchambuzi wa TICGL unaonyesha kuwa bei za chakula hazikupanda kwa kasi — mfumuko wa bei za chakula ulibaki asilimia 4.1 kwa mwaka, na kwa kulinganisha na mwezi uliopita (Juni), bei za chakula zilishuka kwa asilimia 0.8, zikichangiwa na kushuka kwa bei za mchele, mahindi, unga wa mahindi, viazi vitamu, muhogo na maharage — dalili za msimu wa mavuno, si dalili za kodi mpya. Hata hivyo, eneo linaloonyesha ongezeko kubwa ni usafiri na nishati: mfumuko wa bei za usafiri ulifikia asilimia 13.8 kwa mwaka, kiwango cha juu zaidi kati ya makundi yote, huku dizeli (juu kwa asilimia 3.3), petroli (juu kwa asilimia 2.5), mkaa (juu kwa asilimia 4.5) na gesi (juu kwa asilimia 1.3) zote zikipanda bei ndani ya mwezi huo huo.
TICGL inasisitiza kuwa data ya mwezi mmoja haitoshi kuthibitisha kwamba hatua za kodi za bajeti ndizo zilizosababisha ongezeko la bei za mafuta — mabadiliko ya bei za mafuta duniani na thamani ya shilingi dhidi ya dola pia huathiri bei hizi. TICGL itaendelea kufuatilia taarifa za NCPI za miezi ijayo (Agosti, Septemba na Oktoba 2026) ili kuona kama mwenendo huu wa bei za mafuta na usafiri utaendelea, utaongezeka, au utapungua.
- Mfumuko wa bei kwa ujumla: asilimia 4.2 (Julai 2026), ukiwa ndani ya wigo wa lengo la BOT wa asilimia 3-5
- Mfumuko wa bei za chakula: asilimia 4.1 kwa mwaka, lakini bei zilishuka asilimia 0.8 ndani ya mwezi
- Mfumuko wa bei za usafiri: asilimia 13.8 kwa mwaka — kiwango cha juu zaidi cha makundi yote
- Mfumuko wa bei msingi (Core Inflation): asilimia 3.9, bado ndani ya lengo la BOT
Vyanzo: Taarifa ya NCPI ya NBS kwa Julai 2026 (Kumb: AC 334/376/01/381, tarehe 10 Agosti 2026), na utafiti wa awali wa TICGL/TERI kuhusu Bajeti ya 2026/27. Uchambuzi umeandaliwa na Idara ya Utafiti ya TICGL / Tanzania Economic Research Institute (TERI).