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Tanzania Government Budget July 2026: Central Government Revenue & Expenditure Analysis | TICGL
TICGL Economic · Fiscal Policy Brief

Tanzania Government Budget, July 2026: Central Government Revenue & Expenditure Analysis

A full TICGL breakdown of the Bank of Tanzania's Monthly Economic Review (July 2026 issue), with primary focus on Tanzania's central government budgetary operations — revenue performance, expenditure execution, the fiscal deficit and how it is financed — alongside the wider macroeconomic picture: GDP, inflation, monetary policy, debt and the external sector.

Source document: Bank of Tanzania, Monthly Economic Review, July 2026 Reporting period: Cheques-issued data to May 2026; other indicators to June 2026 Prepared by: TICGL Research & Policy Analysis

Executive Summary

The Bank of Tanzania's (BOT) Monthly Economic Review for July 2026 confirms that Tanzania's economy kept its growth momentum into the second quarter of 2026, even as global energy prices remained volatile because of the Middle East conflict. Real GDP grew 6.0 percent in Q1 2026 (up from 4.3 percent a year earlier), headline inflation edged up to 4.0 percent in June 2026 — still inside the 3–5 percent national target band — and the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) raised the Central Bank Rate from 5.75 percent to 6.25 percent for Q3 2026 to pre-empt second-round inflation effects from the global supply shock.

On the fiscal side — the focus of this brief — central government revenue collection continued to outperform target: TZS 3,152.4 billion was collected in May 2026 against a target of TZS 3,109.9 billion (101.4%), lifting cumulative July 2025–May 2026 collection to TZS 36,447.2 billion, already 98.9 percent of the entire FY2025/26 annual revenue budget with one month still to go. Tax revenue outperformance was driven overwhelmingly by income tax (+32.9% above monthly target), while VAT/excise on local goods undershot target by roughly 35 percent. On the spending side, total expenditure execution lagged — May 2026 spending of TZS 4,018.4 billion was only 86.4 percent of the monthly estimate, with development expenditure executed at just 60.4 percent of its May target (and 81.8% of the full-year development budget with one month left), while recurrent spending — particularly "other goods, services and transfers" — ran ahead of plan. The resulting May 2026 fiscal deficit of TZS 418.3 billion was financed almost entirely by domestic borrowing (TZS 376.5bn), and cumulative net domestic financing for the fiscal year to May (TZS 3,617.0bn) had already exceeded the full annual domestic borrowing budget (TZS 2,952.6bn) — a fiscal financing pattern investors and researchers should watch closely.

Related TICGL Deep-Dive: What's Next for Tanzania's Economy?

The revenue-overperformance / expenditure-underexecution / domestic-borrowing pattern seen in this month's budget data sits at the heart of a bigger structural question TICGL has examined in detail: can Tanzania close the policy gaps standing between today's economy and a US$1 trillion economy by 2050? Read our full policy analysis.

Read: What's Next for Tanzania's Economy? →
Central Govt Revenue (May 2026)
TZS 3,152.4bn
101.4% of monthly target
Tax Revenue (May 2026)
TZS 2,750.0bn
105.2% of monthly target
Total Expenditure (May 2026)
TZS 4,018.4bn
86.4% of monthly estimate
Overall Fiscal Balance (May 2026)
−TZS 418.3bn
Smaller than the −TZS 1,333.8bn planned
Net Domestic Financing (Jul–May FY)
TZS 3,617.0bn
122.5% of full-year budget already used
Real GDP Growth (Q1 2026)
6.0%
vs 4.3% in Q1 2025
Headline Inflation (Jun 2026)
4.0%
Within 3–5% target; core inflation rising
Central Bank Rate (Q3 2026)
6.25%
Raised from 5.75% on 2 July 2026

Central Government Budgetary Operations: Full Deep-Dive

The BOT review's Government Budgetary Operations section (based on cheques-issued data compiled by the Ministry of Finance) is the richest fiscal dataset in the July 2026 issue. TICGL has restructured it below into revenue, expenditure, balance and financing views, each compared against the FY2025/26 annual budget, the cumulative July 2025–May 2026 outturn, and the May 2026 monthly outturn.

Tanzania MainlandCheques-Issued BasisFY2025/26 BudgetMinistry of Finance / BOT

1. Revenue Performance: Target vs Actual

Total government revenue (including Local Government Authority own sources) reached TZS 3,259.4 billion in May 2026, 0.5 percent above the monthly target. Central government revenue alone — TZS 3,152.4 billion — represented 96.7 percent of total revenue collected and exceeded its own monthly target by 1.4 percent. Tax revenue performance was strong (+5.2% above target), propelled by income tax, which beat its monthly target by a striking 32.9 percent, reflecting improvements in tax administration and compliance. Sales/VAT and excise duties on local goods, however, undershot target by close to 35 percent, and non-tax revenue collection reached only 81.4 percent of target.

Table 1 · Central Government Revenue Performance — FY2025/26 Budget vs Jul’25–May’26 vs May 2026 (TZS Billion)
Revenue ItemFY2025/26 BudgetJul–May EstimateJul–May ActualJul–May Achv.May EstimateMay ActualMay Achv.
Total revenue (incl. LGAs)40,466.136,046.437,907.7105.2%3,241.93,259.4100.5%
Central government revenue36,857.734,512.136,447.2105.6%3,109.93,152.4101.4%
  Tax revenue32,176.028,856.231,478.1109.1%2,615.22,750.0105.2%
    Taxes on imports11,563.010,567.311,394.2107.8%964.31,122.6116.4%
    Sales/VAT & excise, local goods7,016.56,331.95,876.892.8%739.2481.565.1%
    Income taxes11,367.99,832.212,118.2123.3%718.6954.9132.9%
    Other taxes4,887.72,124.82,088.998.3%193.0191.099.0%
  Non-tax revenue4,681.75,655.94,969.187.9%494.7402.581.4%
LGA own sources1,680.51,534.41,460.595.2%132.0107.081.0%

Source: Ministry of Finance and Bank of Tanzania (Table A2), TICGL computations. Achievement = Actual ÷ Estimate.

Chart 1 · May 2026 Central Government Revenue — Actual vs Target vs Prior Year (TZS Billion)

Source: BOT Monthly Economic Review, July 2026 (Chart 2.6.1) · TICGL visualization.

TICGL Reading: Revenue Mix

  • Income tax is doing the heavy lifting. At 132.9% of the May target, income tax growth (reflecting improved TRA administration and compliance) is now the single most important swing factor in Tanzania's revenue outperformance.
  • Consumption-tax weakness is a watch item. VAT and excise on local goods collecting only 65.1% of the May target — even as headline economic activity accelerated to 6.0% GDP growth — suggests either compliance leakage in the domestic VAT chain or a shift in the composition of growth away from VAT-heavy consumption sectors.
  • Import taxes are rising with trade volumes. Taxes on imports beat target by 16.4%, consistent with the 20.6% year-on-year rise in goods imports reported in the external sector data (see below) — but this also signals rising import dependence.

2. Expenditure Performance: Target vs Actual

Total government expenditure of TZS 4,018.4 billion in May 2026 was well below the TZS 4,653.4 billion monthly estimate (86.4%), driven by a sharp shortfall in development spending. Development expenditure and net lending reached only TZS 1,137.7 billion against a target of TZS 1,883.2 billion (60.4%), with both local (63.4%) and foreign-financed (54.8%) components underspent. Recurrent expenditure, by contrast, exceeded target (104.0%), with "other goods, services and transfers" running 46.6% above its monthly plan, while interest payments came in well under budget (47.3% of target) — a favourable outcome for debt-service costs this month.

Table 2 · Central Government Expenditure Performance — FY2025/26 Budget vs Jul’25–May’26 vs May 2026 (TZS Billion)
Expenditure ItemFY2025/26 BudgetJul–May EstimateJul–May ActualJul–May Achv.May EstimateMay ActualMay Achv.
Total expenditure48,775.045,056.342,810.495.0%4,653.44,018.486.4%
Recurrent expenditure31,281.328,364.228,505.8100.5%2,770.22,880.7104.0%
  Wages and salaries10,917.512,001.812,116.2101.0%1,111.81,139.3102.5%
  Interest payments6,493.76,294.95,007.979.6%694.5328.347.3%
    Domestic interest3,697.33,524.33,225.391.5%356.3202.856.9%
    Foreign interest2,796.42,770.61,782.664.3%338.1125.537.1%
  Other goods, services & transfers7,088.610,067.611,381.7113.1%963.91,413.1146.6%
Development expenditure & net lending17,493.716,692.114,304.685.7%1,883.21,137.760.4%
  Local12,117.811,294.710,971.897.1%1,228.3778.763.4%
  Foreign5,375.95,397.43,332.961.7%654.9359.054.8%

Source: Ministry of Finance and Bank of Tanzania (Table A2), TICGL computations.

Chart 2 · May 2026 Central Government Expenditure — Actual vs Estimate vs Prior Year (TZS Billion)

Source: BOT Monthly Economic Review, July 2026 (Chart 2.6.2) · TICGL visualization.

TICGL Reading: Expenditure Mix

  • Development spending is the main execution risk. With only 81.8% of the full-year development budget disbursed through 11 months of the fiscal year (see execution-pace table below), infrastructure and capital-project contractors, EPC firms and PPP concessionaires should expect either a Q4 disbursement surge or a real risk of rolled-over commitments into FY2026/27.
  • Recurrent spending discipline has loosened. "Other goods, services and transfers" running 46.6% above the May target is the largest single expenditure overshoot in the dataset and merits monitoring in subsequent BOT reviews.
  • Debt service relief this month. Interest payments at under half of target reduced fiscal pressure in May, but this is a timing effect rather than a change in Tanzania's underlying debt-service obligations (see Domestic Debt section).

3. Fiscal Balance & Deficit Financing

Because expenditure underperformed by more than revenue outperformed, the balance before grants actually swung to a small surplus of TZS 86.5 billion in May 2026, against a planned deficit of TZS 1,411.4 billion. After grants of TZS 84.4 billion, the government still recorded an overall fiscal deficit of TZS 418.3 billion for the month (smaller than the TZS 1,333.8 billion planned), which was financed almost entirely by net domestic borrowing.

Table 3 · Fiscal Balance & Financing — FY2025/26 Budget vs Jul’25–May’26 vs May 2026 (TZS Billion)
ItemFY2025/26 BudgetJul–May EstimateJul–May ActualMay EstimateMay Actual
Balance before grants−8,308.9−9,009.9−4,902.7−1,411.4+86.5
Grants received1,069.9863.9798.977.784.4
Balance after grants−6,401.2−8,146.0−4,103.8−1,333.8−672.5
Overall balance−7,239.0−8,146.0−5,623.2−1,333.8−418.3
Total financing7,239.08,146.05,623.21,333.8418.3
  Net foreign financing4,286.34,630.82,006.2816.841.9
  Net domestic financing2,952.63,515.23,617.0517.0376.5

Source: Ministry of Finance and Bank of Tanzania (Table A2), TICGL computations.

Chart 3 · May 2026 Deficit Financing Mix

Domestic borrowing funded ~90% of the May 2026 deficit.

Chart 4 · Cumulative Jul’25–May’26 Execution vs Full-Year Budget (%)

Share of the FY2025/26 annual budget already realised after 11 of 12 months.

4. Full-Year Budget Execution Pace (FY2025/26)

With 11 of 12 months of FY2025/26 elapsed by the end of May 2026 (91.7% of the fiscal year), comparing cumulative actuals to the full-year budget shows where execution is running ahead of, or behind, the annual plan.

Table 4 · Share of FY2025/26 Annual Budget Realised by End-May 2026
ItemFY2025/26 Budget (TZS bn)Jul–May Actual (TZS bn)% of Annual Budget RealisedAssessment
Total revenue (incl. LGAs)40,466.137,907.793.7%Ahead of the 91.7% pace benchmark
Central government revenue36,857.736,447.298.9%Strongly ahead of pace
Tax revenue32,176.031,478.197.8%Strongly ahead of pace
Total expenditure48,775.042,810.487.8%Behind the 91.7% pace benchmark
Recurrent expenditure31,281.328,505.891.1%Broadly on pace
Development expenditure17,493.714,304.681.8%Materially behind pace — key risk area
Overall fiscal deficit7,239.05,623.277.7%Deficit smaller than annual plan so far
Net domestic financing2,952.63,617.0122.5%Already exceeds the full-year domestic borrowing ceiling

TICGL computations from Table A2 (BOT Monthly Economic Review, July 2026). Pace benchmark = 11/12 months = 91.7%.

TICGL Flag: Domestic Borrowing Has Already Exceeded the Annual Budget

The most significant fiscal signal in this month's data: cumulative net domestic financing of TZS 3,617.0 billion for July 2025–May 2026 already stands at 122.5 percent of the entire FY2025/26 domestic borrowing budget (TZS 2,952.6bn) — with a full month of the fiscal year still remaining. This has direct implications for domestic liquidity, the government securities market (Treasury bill and bond yields were already edging up in June 2026 — see below), and crowding-out risk for private-sector credit, even as private credit growth accelerated to 28.1 percent year-on-year.

5. Domestic Debt: The Financing Counterpart

Government domestic debt stock reached TZS 39,325.8 billion at end-June 2026, up marginally from TZS 39,257.3 billion in May, and more than tripling from TZS 13,228.2 billion a decade earlier (June 2018). The overdraft facility with the Bank of Tanzania and Treasury bonds remain the dominant instruments; commercial banks and pension funds remain the government's largest domestic creditors.

Chart 5 · Government Domestic Debt Stock, June 2018–June 2026 (TZS Billion)

Source: Ministry of Finance, BOT Monthly Economic Review, July 2026 (Chart 2.7.1).

Table 5a · Domestic Debt by Instrument, June 2026 (TZS Billion)
InstrumentJun-26Share
Government bonds31,421.279.9%
Treasury bills1,757.54.5%
Government stocks135.70.3%
Overdraft (non-securitized)6,011.415.3%
Total domestic debt stock39,325.8100.0%
Table 5b · Domestic Debt by Creditor, June 2026 (TZS Billion)
CreditorJun-26Share
Commercial banks11,320.828.8%
Pension funds10,399.026.4%
Bank of Tanzania7,197.118.3%
Others (incl. public, private, non-residents)7,547.419.2%
Insurance2,022.85.1%
BOT special funds838.62.1%
Total domestic debt stock39,325.8100.0%

Government securities auctions were oversubscribed in June 2026: Treasury bills attracted bids of TZS 1,295.9bn against a TZS 552.1bn tender (weighted average yield up to 4.83% from 4.74%), while 10- and 25-year Treasury bonds attracted TZS 1,539.6bn in bids against a TZS 387.6bn tender (10-year yield rising 0.99 percentage points to 10.39%).

6. Zanzibar Government Budgetary Operations

Zanzibar's revolutionary government collected TZS 204.4 billion in domestic revenue and grants in June 2026 (77.5% of the monthly target), of which domestic revenue made up 86.6 percent. Tax collections reached TZS 160.1 billion (72.9% of target); non-tax revenue reached TZS 17.0 billion (78.2% of target). Government spending of TZS 423.6 billion — TZS 314.9 billion of it development expenditure — produced an overall fiscal deficit of TZS 219.2 billion, financed through domestic borrowing.

Table 6 · Zanzibar Government Resources & Expenditure, June 2026 (TZS Billion)
Item2025 Actual2026 Estimate2026 ActualAchievement
Revenue
Tax on imports30.431.526.483.8%
VAT & excise duties (local)43.546.947.5101.3%
Income tax49.061.350.281.9%
Other taxes39.280.036.045.0%
Non-tax revenue20.521.817.078.2%
Grants2.322.427.3121.9%
Expenditure
Wages and salaries68.267.567.6100.1%
Other recurrent expenditure92.655.141.174.6%
Development expenditure270.8369.5314.985.2%

Source: Ministry of Finance and Planning, Zanzibar; BOT Monthly Economic Review, July 2026 (Charts 3.2.1 & 3.2.2).

Wider Macroeconomic Context: GDP, Inflation & Monetary Policy

The fiscal data above sits inside a broader macro picture that shapes both government revenue capacity and financing costs.

Chart 6 · Mainland Tanzania Quarterly Real GDP Growth, 2022–2026 (%)

Source: National Bureau of Statistics & BOT computations (Chart 2.1a).

Chart 7 · Headline Inflation, Jan 2024–Jun 2026 (%, y/y)

Source: National Bureau of Statistics (Table A9(i)). National target band: 3–5%.

Table 7 · Key Macroeconomic Indicators Snapshot
IndicatorJune 2025May 2026June 2026
Headline inflation (y/y)3.3%4.2%4.0%
Core inflation (y/y)1.9%3.4%3.7%
Food inflation (y/y)7.3%5.6%4.1%
Energy, fuel & utilities inflation (y/y)2.1%5.0%6.3%
Central Bank Rate (CBR)5.75%6.25% (from 2 Jul 2026)
Overall lending rate15.23%15.32%15.20%
Overall time deposit rate8.74%8.43%8.60%
Extended broad money (M3) growth (y/y)18.7%25.2%25.4%
Private sector credit growth (y/y)15.9%23.2%28.1%
Exchange rate (TZS/USD, monthly average)2,616.882,633.73
Gross official reservesUSD 5,673.5m (4.4 months of imports)

TICGL Reading: Why the CBR Was Raised to 6.25%

The BOT held its rate at 5.75% through Q2 2026 on the view that the oil/fertilizer/freight price shock from the Middle East conflict was a first-round, temporary supply effect that tighter policy could not meaningfully offset. But core inflation's rise from 2.2% (March 2026) to 3.7% (June 2026) signalled second-round effects spreading into the wider basket of goods and services, prompting the MPC's 2 July 2026 decision to raise the CBR by 50 basis points to 6.25% for Q3 2026. For government finances, a higher CBR raises the cost of the very domestic borrowing programme that is already running ahead of its FY2025/26 ceiling (see Section 3 above) — a dynamic worth watching in coming months.

External Sector & National Debt Stock

Tanzania's current account deficit widened to USD 2,303.9 million in the year to June 2026 (from USD 2,153.4 million a year earlier) as import growth (20.6% y/y for goods) outpaced robust export growth (19.2% y/y for goods, led by gold). Gross official foreign exchange reserves stood at USD 5,673.5 million, covering 4.4 months of projected imports — above the four-month national benchmark. The national debt stock (external plus domestic, in USD terms) reached USD 50,595.8 million at end-June 2026, of which 70.4 percent was external.

Chart 8 · External Debt Stock (Public & Private), June 2025–June 2026 (USD Million)

Source: Ministry of Finance & Bank of Tanzania (Table A10).

Table 8 · External Sector & Debt Snapshot, Year Ending June 2026
IndicatorFY2024/25FY2025/26% Change
Exports of goods and services (USD m)17,001.319,923.6+17.2%
Imports of goods and services (USD m)17,629.820,815.7+18.1%
Current account balance (USD m)−2,153.4−2,303.9+7.0% wider
External debt stock, end-period (USD m)34,765.335,606.1+2.4%
Gross official reserves (USD m)5,546.96,329.0 (2025 annual) / 5,673.5 (Jun-26)

Global Conditions Shaping the Numbers

The IMF's July 2026 World Economic Outlook Update projects global growth at 3.0 percent in 2026, strengthening to 3.4 percent in 2027; sub-Saharan Africa growth is projected to moderate to 4.3 percent in 2026. Global commodity prices corrected sharply in June 2026 after a ceasefire near the Strait of Hormuz eased risk premiums, but remained roughly 25 percent above pre-conflict levels.

Table 9 · Selected World Commodity Price Changes, June 2026 (m-o-m)
Commodity / Index% Change (m-o-m)
Energy (overall)−17.7%
Brent crude oil−20.6%
Natural gas (US)+7.3%
Fertilizers−21.8%
Food−2.6%
Metals and minerals−2.4%
Precious metals−9.2%
Gold (USD/troy oz, average)USD 4,228 (from USD 4,587)

Note: the ECB and Bank of Japan each raised policy rates by 25bps in June 2026, while the US Federal Reserve and Bank of England held rates, signalling their next move was more likely a hike than a cut.

TICGL Analysis: What This Means for Investors & Policymakers

Key Takeaways

  • Revenue mobilisation is genuinely strong — Tanzania is on track to meet, or come close to, its FY2025/26 revenue budget, driven by income tax administration gains. This supports fiscal credibility and reduces near-term financing need relative to the annual plan.
  • Capital budget execution is the real bottleneck — with development spending at just 81.8% of its annual allocation through 11 months, public infrastructure contractors and PPP partners should plan for either a Q4 disbursement push or slippage into FY2026/27; TICGL's PPP advisory team tracks this closely for clients bidding on public infrastructure.
  • Domestic borrowing has already breached its annual ceiling — this raises questions about crowding-out of private credit (even though private credit growth is currently robust at 28.1% y/y) and about upward pressure on Treasury bond and bill yields, both of which rose in June 2026.
  • Monetary tightening (CBR to 6.25%) raises the cost of that borrowing just as the government leans more heavily on domestic markets — a policy interaction worth watching through Q3 2026.
  • VAT/excise underperformance on local goods deserves scrutiny — it is the weakest major revenue line even as GDP growth accelerated, suggesting either compliance gaps or a shift in consumption patterns away from VAT-heavy goods.

TICGL has explored the structural dimensions of these fiscal dynamics — and what they mean for Tanzania's long-run growth trajectory — in greater depth in our dedicated policy research. See What's Next for Tanzania's Economy? The Policy Gaps Keeping $1 Trillion Out of Reach by 2050.

Muhtasari

Muhtasari kwa Kiswahili

Ripoti ya Kila Mwezi ya Kiuchumi ya Benki Kuu ya Tanzania (BOT), toleo la Julai 2026, inaonesha kuwa uchumi wa Tanzania uliendelea kukua kwa kasi nzuri, huku Pato la Taifa (GDP) likikua kwa asilimia 6.0 katika robo ya kwanza ya 2026, ikilinganishwa na asilimia 4.3 kipindi kama hicho mwaka 2025. Mfumuko wa bei ulipanda kidogo hadi asilimia 4.0 mwezi Juni 2026, ukiendelea kubaki ndani ya lengo la kitaifa la asilimia 3–5. Kutokana na dalili za mfumuko wa bei kuenea kwenye bidhaa na huduma nyingine (core inflation), Kamati ya Sera za Fedha (MPC) iliamua kupandisha Kiwango cha Riba cha Benki Kuu (CBR) kutoka asilimia 5.75 hadi asilimia 6.25 kwa robo ya tatu ya 2026.

Kwa upande wa bajeti ya Serikali Kuu — ambayo ndiyo lengo kuu la uchambuzi huu — makusanyo ya mapato yaliendelea kuvuka malengo: Serikali Kuu ilikusanya TZS bilioni 3,152.4 mwezi Mei 2026, sawa na asilimia 101.4 ya lengo la mwezi huo, hasa kutokana na kodi ya mapato (income tax) iliyovuka lengo kwa asilimia 32.9. Hata hivyo, matumizi ya maendeleo (development expenditure) yalitekelezwa kwa asilimia 60.4 tu ya lengo la mwezi Mei, na kwa mwaka mzima wa fedha, ni asilimia 81.8 tu ya bajeti ya maendeleo iliyokuwa imetumika hadi Mei 2026 — jambo linalohitaji ufuatiliaji wa karibu. Nakisi ya bajeti ya TZS bilioni 418.3 kwa mwezi Mei ilifadhiliwa zaidi na mikopo ya ndani (TZS bilioni 376.5), na kwa ujumla, mikopo ya ndani ya mwaka wa fedha (Julai 2025 – Mei 2026) tayari imezidi bajeti yote ya mwaka ya mikopo ya ndani kwa asilimia 22.5.

TICGL inaendelea kufuatilia mienendo hii ya kibajeti kwa karibu, ikiwa ni pamoja na uchambuzi wa kina kuhusu changamoto za kisera zinazokwamisha ukuaji wa uchumi wa Tanzania kufikia lengo la dola trilioni 1 ifikapo 2050. Soma zaidi kwenye makala yetu: Tanzania's Economy: Policy Gaps Keeping $1 Trillion Out of Reach by 2050.

This page is a TICGL research summary and visualization of publicly available data published by the Bank of Tanzania in its Monthly Economic Review, July 2026, and by the Ministry of Finance, National Bureau of Statistics, Tanzania Revenue Authority and Office of the Chief Government Statistician, Zanzibar, as cited throughout. Figures marked provisional (p) or revised (r) in the source document may be updated in subsequent BOT releases. This content is for general information and research purposes and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. © 2026 Tanzania Investment and Consultant Group Ltd (TICGL).

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